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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:120.0
Current RPI:120
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:180
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:315



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13120.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UC Davis (281.0)BWA71-79W100%0.0
11-15Illinois (149.0)B10A80-74L0%0.0
11-25Montana (145.0)BSkyH73-53W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
12-1Iowa St. (23.0)B12A84-64L0%0.0
12-4Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA73-74W100%0.0
12-6Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA74-62L0%0.0
12-11North Dakota (218.0)BSkyA67-69W100%0.0
12-16Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH73-64W100%0.0
12-21Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyN62-67W100%0.0
12-22UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACN68-50W100%0.0
12-23Utah St. (151.0)MWCA76-62L0%0.0
1-3Denver (188.0)SumH75-49W100%0.0
1-7Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH82-91L0%0.0
1-9Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA66-65L0%0.0
1-13South Dakota (197.0)SumH66-65W100%0.0
1-16South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH68-57W100%0.0
1-21IPFW (71.0)SumA79-74L0%0.0
1-23Western Illinois (262.0)SumA52-65W100%0.0
1-31IUPUI (189.0)SumA73-72L0%0.0
2-4Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH67-63W100%0.0
2-6IPFW (71.0)SumH62-46W100%0.0
2-11South Dakota (197.0)SumA72-58L0%0.0
2-13Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA76-69L0%0.0
2-17Western Illinois (262.0)SumH63-54W100%0.0
2-20IUPUI (189.0)SumH63-59W100%0.0
2-25South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA71-59L0%0.0
2-27Denver (188.0)SumA70-59L0%0.0
3-6IUPUI (189.0)SumN45-60W100%0.0
3-7IPFW (71.0)SumN68-69W100%0.0
3-8South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA67-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum26.6026.6064.4664.467.697.69
South Dakota St.Sum5.835.8378.5778.573.333.33
IPFWSum5.775.7775.0075.002.892.89
IUPUISum5.725.7239.2939.29-1.23-1.23
DenverSum4.324.3251.7251.720.150.15
South DakotaSum4.264.2639.2939.29-0.91-0.91
Nebraska OmahaSum4.234.2351.8551.850.160.16
Oral RobertsSum4.234.2340.7440.74-0.78-0.78
Western IllinoisSum4.134.1331.8231.82-1.50-1.50
Idaho St.BSky1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
North DakotaBSky1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky1.751.7564.2964.290.500.50
IllinoisB101.691.6942.4242.42-0.26-0.26
Utah St.MWC1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.671.6719.2319.23-1.03-1.03
Iowa St.B121.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
Arkansas St.SB1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Southern MissCUSA1.611.6123.0823.08-0.87-0.87
UC DavisBW1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Weber St.BSky0.460.4674.1974.190.220.22
Sacramento St.BSky0.360.3641.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.330.3327.5927.59-0.15-0.15
Southern UtahBSky0.300.3014.2914.29-0.21-0.21
MinnesotaB100.260.2625.8125.81-0.13-0.13
UMKCWAC0.250.2532.1432.14-0.09-0.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1910.7110.71-0.15-0.15
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.180.183.453.45-0.16-0.16
Georgia St.SB0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1655.1755.170.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
CreightonBE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
IowaB100.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Air ForceMWC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
OklahomaB120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
TCUB120.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
IndianaB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
SeattleWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
MissouriSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
ButlerBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01