live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:127.5
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:233
Current Record:13-8
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:5-4
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:312



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-879.20.88%
19-991.98.16%
18-10107.122.51%
17-11125.632.35%
16-12144.424.58%
15-13162.59.51%
14-14180.21.83%
13-15196.90.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UC Davis (266.2)BWA71-79W100%0.0
11-15Illinois (158.4)B10A80-74L0%0.0
11-25Montana (153.5)BSkyH73-53W100%0.0
11-28North Carolina A&T (340.4)MEACH77-56W100%0.0
12-1Iowa St. (19.2)B12A84-64L0%0.0
12-4Arkansas St. (227.7)SBA73-74W100%0.0
12-6Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAA74-62L0%0.0
12-11North Dakota (226.4)BSkyA67-69W100%0.0
12-16Montana St. (270.0)BSkyH73-64W100%0.0
12-21Idaho St. (287.0)BSkyN62-67W100%0.0
12-22UT Rio Grande Valley (339.9)WACN68-50W100%0.0
12-23Utah St. (154.2)MWCA76-62L0%0.0
1-3Denver (213.1)SumH75-49W100%0.0
1-7Nebraska Omaha (121.1)SumH82-91L0%0.0
1-9Oral Roberts (143.4)SumA66-65L0%0.0
1-13South Dakota (198.5)SumH66-65W100%0.0
1-16South Dakota St. (42.8)SumH68-57W100%0.0
1-21IPFW (77.4)SumA79-74L0%0.0
1-23Western Illinois (259.2)SumA52-65W100%0.0
1-31IUPUI (176.7)SumA73-72L0%0.0
2-4Oral Roberts (143.4)SumH67-63W100%0.0
2-6IPFW (77.4)SumH0-062%3.2
2-11South Dakota (198.5)SumA0-057%2.0
2-13Nebraska Omaha (121.1)SumA0-035%-4.2
2-17Western Illinois (259.2)SumH0-081%9.5
2-20IUPUI (176.7)SumH0-078%8.5
2-25South Dakota St. (42.8)SumA0-021%-8.8
2-27Denver (213.1)SumA0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum26.3226.4067.8265.749.388.31
DenverSum2.994.5054.5550.830.270.07
South DakotaSum2.984.5040.9140.83-0.54-0.82
Nebraska OmahaSum2.994.4957.1457.700.430.69
IUPUISum2.944.4739.1338.77-0.64-1.00
IPFWSum2.984.4772.7370.291.351.81
Oral RobertsSum5.204.4640.0042.47-1.04-0.67
South Dakota St.Sum2.874.4680.0079.041.722.59
Western IllinoisSum2.914.4429.4131.01-1.20-1.69
Idaho St.BSky2.692.0544.4444.28-0.30-0.23
Montana St.BSky2.572.0240.0042.70-0.51-0.29
North DakotaBSky2.631.9847.0648.81-0.15-0.05
MontanaBSky2.501.9558.8263.340.440.52
IllinoisB102.491.8845.4542.66-0.23-0.28
Utah St.MWC2.501.8544.4447.43-0.28-0.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.511.8515.7916.28-1.71-1.25
Iowa St.B122.431.8171.4367.811.040.65
Arkansas St.SB2.381.7947.3743.32-0.13-0.24
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.381.7927.2731.38-1.08-0.67
Southern MissCUSA2.381.7929.4131.09-0.98-0.68
UC DavisBW2.381.7938.8935.51-0.53-0.52
Weber St.BSky0.420.4268.4271.820.150.18
Northern ColoradoBSky0.360.3930.0029.98-0.14-0.16
Sacramento St.BSky0.430.3644.4448.52-0.05-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.290.2950.0053.090.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.300.2915.7916.39-0.21-0.19
Portland St.BSky0.300.2633.3339.27-0.10-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.420.2635.0035.36-0.12-0.08
UMKCWAC0.220.2630.0034.84-0.09-0.08
MinnesotaB100.210.2526.0927.81-0.10-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.235.2610.18-0.23-0.18
Missouri St.MVC0.330.2240.9138.03-0.06-0.05
WyomingMWC0.220.2240.9140.46-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.290.2235.0034.93-0.09-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.2138.1042.99-0.04-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.230.204.557.91-0.21-0.17
IdahoBSky0.250.2057.1457.940.040.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1940.0049.74-0.02-0.00
WisconsinB100.180.1760.8755.900.040.02
San Jose St.MWC0.240.1625.0022.58-0.12-0.09
Air ForceMWC0.180.1642.8635.05-0.03-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1645.0049.60-0.02-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1630.0028.61-0.07-0.07
Georgia St.SB0.180.1561.1158.300.040.03
Kansas St.B120.170.1559.0955.550.030.02
CreightonBE0.120.1360.8759.050.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.250.1366.6766.030.080.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1381.8281.010.070.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1363.6468.210.050.05
IowaB100.120.1381.8279.900.080.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1365.0067.510.030.05
New MexicoMWC0.170.1363.6464.090.050.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.230.1345.4547.97-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.1331.5836.16-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.110.1347.8343.92-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.170.1236.3630.98-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1234.7837.55-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1261.9062.050.020.03
OklahomaB120.220.1290.4884.890.180.08
TCUB120.110.1245.4537.84-0.01-0.03
Texas TechB120.110.1261.9054.010.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.100.1228.5728.88-0.04-0.05
IndianaB100.100.1282.6177.370.070.07
PurdueB100.150.1282.6178.230.100.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.105.267.22-0.11-0.09
SeattleWAC0.120.1045.0042.81-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.130.1050.0050.040.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.130.1072.7371.670.060.04
HawaiiBW0.120.1083.3380.130.080.06
NevadaMWC0.120.1057.8956.110.020.01
FIUCUSA0.170.1042.8645.93-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.1070.0068.920.020.04
Texas St.SB0.120.1041.1840.28-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.0933.3329.23-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.130.0920.0023.76-0.08-0.05
UNLVMWC0.110.0952.3857.440.010.01
UtahP120.110.0972.7368.550.050.03
MemphisAmer0.120.0959.0958.550.020.02
ColoradoP120.110.0972.7366.970.050.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.0918.1822.83-0.07-0.05
KansasB120.120.0980.9577.000.070.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.0930.0033.57-0.04-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.0931.5833.51-0.06-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.160.0957.1457.510.020.01
BaylorB120.110.0976.1967.350.060.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0740.9139.22-0.01-0.02
LamarSlnd0.120.0733.3332.69-0.04-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.0736.8432.84-0.03-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0750.0048.750.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0760.0057.290.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0742.8651.33-0.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.0775.0072.220.070.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0730.0029.46-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0725.0028.19-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.130.0771.4370.810.050.03
UTSACUSA0.070.0714.2913.97-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.130.0637.5036.54-0.03-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.0650.0056.540.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0622.7323.37-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.110.0645.0044.39-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0638.8943.22-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0655.5650.840.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0652.1747.620.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.110.0669.5768.670.040.02
LSUSEC0.110.0663.6459.440.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0685.7176.030.080.03
SouthernSWAC0.050.0663.1666.150.010.02
TulsaAmer0.110.0663.6459.950.030.01
North FloridaASun0.110.0668.1869.350.040.02
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0652.1754.140.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.120.0636.3642.19-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0681.8278.320.030.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0627.2730.43-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.0086.120.050.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0636.8437.30-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.6247.86-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0621.7427.64-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0657.8961.920.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0640.0044.95-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0665.2265.230.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0666.6760.120.020.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0631.8232.32-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.050.0625.0029.75-0.03-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0665.0068.750.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0680.9583.050.030.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0635.0036.57-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0654.5555.190.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0661.9058.190.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0628.5734.73-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0668.1866.490.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0621.0523.70-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0654.5555.310.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0622.7324.28-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0665.2256.530.020.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0626.3236.93-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.0615.7922.51-0.07-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.110.0652.1747.250.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.110.0685.7184.560.080.04
Ohio St.B100.100.0658.3354.120.020.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0650.0045.730.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0622.7320.68-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.050.0668.1861.780.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0681.8278.720.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.038.709.77-0.05-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0377.2776.130.040.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0372.7368.010.030.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0380.9575.640.040.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0359.0958.100.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0352.3848.890.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0368.1862.190.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0357.1452.310.010.00
BYUWCC0.060.0369.5773.030.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0372.7369.920.030.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0323.8128.31-0.03-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0352.3854.240.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0354.5561.950.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0385.0085.230.040.02
TulaneAmer0.070.0333.3332.41-0.02-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.060.0338.1033.45-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
OregonP120.060.0381.8278.210.040.02
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.87-0.04-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0368.1867.800.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0316.6720.71-0.03-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.350.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0327.2732.84-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0321.0529.16-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0325.0025.48-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0330.0032.46-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0357.1457.560.010.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0323.8125.03-0.03-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.9173.090.030.01
MarylandB100.000.0386.9681.770.000.02
MichiganB100.050.0372.7367.980.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0382.6181.380.030.02
NebraskaB100.050.0352.1751.560.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6763.480.000.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0368.1863.720.020.01
Penn St.B100.000.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0378.2671.960.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0381.8281.010.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0325.0029.91-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2273.760.020.01