live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:72.0
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:183
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:88


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-972.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Indiana (8.0)B10A87-61L0%0.0
11-19Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzN83-80W100%0.0
11-20Duquesne (229.0)A10A43-57W100%0.0
11-21James Madison (182.0)CAAN44-66W100%0.0
11-24Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzA74-59L0%0.0
11-29Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumH95-51W100%0.0
12-5Morehead St. (172.0)OVCA57-69W100%0.0
12-9North Dakota (226.0)BSkyH72-52W100%0.0
12-11Minnesota (34.0)B10A70-57L0%0.0
12-15Towson (157.0)CAAA48-65W100%0.0
12-21Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH69-49W100%0.0
12-29South Dakota St. (62.0)SumH65-62W100%0.0
1-3South Dakota (240.0)SumA66-92W100%0.0
1-5Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumA44-63W100%0.0
1-10IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumH67-55W100%0.0
1-12Oakland (152.0)SumH73-65W100%0.0
1-17IUPUI (326.0)SumA40-78W100%0.0
1-19Western Illinois (122.0)SumA50-42L0%0.0
1-26South Dakota St. (62.0)SumA69-53L0%0.0
1-31Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumH71-34W100%0.0
2-2South Dakota (240.0)SumH65-46W100%0.0
2-7Oakland (152.0)SumA66-63L0%0.0
2-9IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumA54-58W100%0.0
2-14Western Illinois (122.0)SumH36-49L0%0.0
2-16IUPUI (326.0)SumH75-39W100%0.0
2-22Akron (43.0)MACA68-53L0%0.0
2-26Utah Valley (297.0)GWCH63-56W100%0.0
3-2Nebraska Omaha (285.0)SumA57-84W100%0.0
3-10Missouri Kansas City (284.0)SumN69-58W100%0.0
3-11Western Illinois (122.0)SumN43-55W100%0.0
3-12South Dakota St. (62.0)SumA73-67L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum26.6426.6477.3777.3714.5814.58
South Dakota St.Sum5.875.8771.4371.432.522.52
Missouri Kansas CitySum5.775.7725.0025.00-2.88-2.88
Western IllinoisSum5.755.7572.0072.002.532.53
South DakotaSum4.304.3030.7730.77-1.66-1.66
IUPU Fort WayneSum4.284.2848.2848.28-0.15-0.15
IUPUISum4.264.2614.2914.29-3.04-3.04
OaklandSum4.254.2546.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Nebraska OmahaSum4.174.1737.0437.04-1.08-1.08
Morehead St.OVC3.343.3444.8344.83-0.35-0.35
North DakotaBSky1.821.8248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyGWC1.741.7437.0437.04-0.45-0.45
MinnesotaB101.741.7461.2961.290.390.39
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.731.7351.6151.610.060.06
James MadisonCAA1.721.7260.6160.610.370.37
Youngstown St.Horz1.711.7150.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA101.661.6627.5927.59-0.75-0.75
IndianaB101.661.6681.2581.251.041.04
TowsonCAA1.661.6658.6258.620.290.29
AkronMAC1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
ValparaisoHorz0.290.2978.1278.120.160.16
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.270.2738.4638.46-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2228.0028.00-0.10-0.10
Ball St.MAC0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.220.2251.6151.610.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2137.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.GWC0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
BelmontOVC0.180.1880.0080.000.110.11
WisconsinB100.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.160.1678.7978.790.090.09
IowaB100.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
HofstraCAA0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
Michigan St.B100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Ohio St.B100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
BuffaloMAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
DetroitHorz0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.130.1379.3179.310.080.08
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
NebraskaB100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DelawareCAA0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.120.1263.6463.640.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MarylandACC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
ButlerA100.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
AlbanyAE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
NavyPat0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George MasonCAA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
YaleIvy0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
PittsburghBE0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0810.0010.00-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
LouisvilleBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Seton HallBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.7593.750.050.05
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0648.0048.00-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TroySB0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
DenverWAC0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Texas TechB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TempleA100.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. LouisA100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
XavierA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
CreightonMVC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MemphisCUSA0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01