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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:146.4
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:122
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:126



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-337.00.01%
23-441.50.02%
22-555.10.15%
21-666.50.64%
20-776.92.62%
19-891.46.69%
18-9106.612.16%
17-10124.317.10%
16-11143.119.80%
15-12163.217.11%
14-13184.112.18%
13-14205.37.29%
12-15226.72.90%
11-16245.30.97%
10-17263.00.27%
9-18278.10.07%
8-19289.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas St. (78.4)SBH76-66W100%0.0
11-18Navy (261.6)PatN66-59W100%0.0
11-19UNC Greensboro (173.7)SCN65-54L0%0.0
11-20High Point (245.0)BSthA44-70W100%0.0
11-27Missouri St. (147.4)MVCA64-50L0%0.0
11-29Xavier (15.9)BEA85-55L0%0.0
12-2North Carolina A&T (343.1)MEACA67-85W100%0.0
12-7North Dakota (229.5)BSkyH0-071%6.6
12-14UC Davis (256.1)BWH0-077%9.0
12-16North Dakota (229.5)BSkyA0-051%0.3
12-20Arkansas (35.0)SECA0-011%-14.8
12-28South Dakota St. (236.7)SumA0-052%0.6
12-31Nebraska Omaha (170.8)SumH0-065%4.5
1-5IUPUI (160.7)SumH0-060%3.1
1-11South Dakota (222.0)SumA0-054%1.3
1-14Denver (244.4)SumA0-055%1.6
1-19Fort Wayne (114.9)SumH0-049%-0.3
1-21Western Illinois (338.0)SumA0-078%9.2
1-25Oral Roberts (290.1)SumH0-082%11.1
2-1IUPUI (160.7)SumA0-040%-3.2
2-4South Dakota (222.0)SumH0-074%7.5
2-8South Dakota St. (236.7)SumH0-072%6.8
2-11Denver (244.4)SumH0-074%7.8
2-15Fort Wayne (114.9)SumA0-029%-6.6
2-18Western Illinois (338.0)SumH0-090%15.4
2-22Oral Roberts (290.1)SumA0-066%4.9
2-25Nebraska Omaha (170.8)SumA0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum28.4726.5066.6762.279.496.50
Oral RobertsSum0.004.670.0022.50-0.00-2.57
Fort WayneSum0.004.6662.5071.680.002.02
DenverSum0.004.6442.8646.43-0.00-0.33
South DakotaSum0.004.6450.0047.620.00-0.22
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.6425.0040.31-0.00-0.90
IUPUISum0.004.6433.3351.68-0.000.16
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.6437.5051.34-0.000.12
Western IllinoisSum0.004.620.0016.35-0.00-3.11
North DakotaBSky0.003.7033.3357.08-0.000.52
UNC GreensboroSC8.501.9566.6753.922.830.15
ArkansasSEC0.001.9287.5068.370.000.71
Missouri St.MVC7.141.9250.0057.430.000.28
NavyPat8.101.9237.5039.93-2.02-0.39
High PointBSth8.051.9242.8646.53-1.15-0.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC7.651.880.0021.37-7.65-1.08
Arkansas St.SB7.141.8585.7168.405.100.68
UC DavisBW0.001.8550.0046.480.00-0.13
XavierBE7.141.8585.7169.915.100.74
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.310.0022.30-0.00-0.17
Montana St.BSky0.000.2742.8656.48-0.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.890.2633.3352.49-0.300.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.2416.6749.78-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.2350.0053.130.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.220.0020.21-0.00-0.13
Southern UtahBSky0.000.210.0025.31-0.00-0.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2116.6740.32-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.2137.5028.47-0.00-0.09
MontanaBSky0.000.2025.0048.70-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.2060.0067.820.000.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2028.5733.56-0.00-0.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1955.5649.660.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.1944.4453.29-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1811.1120.27-0.00-0.11
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1771.4355.680.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1733.3336.67-0.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1557.1449.640.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1512.5029.77-0.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.000.1540.0043.88-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.1444.4438.41-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1488.8956.710.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.1412.5028.64-0.00-0.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1437.5037.96-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1442.8638.35-0.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1350.0056.080.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1383.3379.920.000.08
HowardMEAC0.000.1316.6743.53-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4358.830.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.130.0033.71-0.00-0.04
Little RockSB0.000.1366.6761.400.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.710.1357.1448.110.10-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0031.31-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1377.7886.650.000.09
WyomingMWC0.000.1366.6753.730.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0076.540.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1377.7864.250.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1371.4357.210.000.02
LehighPat0.890.1237.5061.81-0.220.03
GeorgetownBE0.450.1255.5647.600.05-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1271.4365.470.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1120.0022.08-0.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1012.5034.49-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.510.10100.0076.970.510.05
LibertyBSth0.510.1028.5746.79-0.22-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.510.1028.5724.39-0.22-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1062.5071.850.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1028.5723.02-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.400.1042.8657.52-0.060.01
OaklandHorz0.000.1085.7177.000.000.05
USCP120.000.10100.0076.400.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.450.1075.0074.590.220.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.1050.0042.770.00-0.01
BaylorB120.450.10100.0076.070.450.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1075.0047.990.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1087.5064.760.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.510.1062.5060.090.130.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1057.1457.780.000.01
ArmyPat0.450.0942.8650.29-0.060.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0975.0075.180.000.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0957.1449.420.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.450.0955.5646.770.05-0.01
DePaulBE0.710.0971.4337.680.31-0.02
MissouriSEC0.450.0962.5044.840.11-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0064.910.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0777.7877.640.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0762.5052.060.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0021.30-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.0787.5074.510.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.17-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0725.0026.46-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0720.0035.15-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0750.0050.170.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0742.8639.64-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0038.50-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0750.0050.980.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0733.3351.98-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0766.6751.140.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0775.0071.330.000.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0021.92-0.00-0.04
MercerSC0.000.0742.8647.68-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0777.7865.840.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0760.0058.780.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0775.0066.090.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0771.4348.030.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0775.0048.980.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0728.5734.49-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0775.0070.570.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0750.0048.500.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0762.5056.520.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0750.0030.320.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0750.0037.700.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.070.0016.56-0.00-0.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0071.340.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.070.0034.69-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.0625.0041.19-0.22-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0642.8655.07-0.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0637.5025.74-0.00-0.03
BucknellPat0.000.0670.0070.530.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.13-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0625.0043.29-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5030.11-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0092.200.000.05
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0655.5643.870.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.44-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.98-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0642.8635.40-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.85-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0060.950.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.830.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.0657.1450.730.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.890.0671.4354.560.380.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0677.7855.180.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6730.09-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.080.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.83-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.740.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0688.8966.920.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.830.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0677.7872.930.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4347.690.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0644.4436.20-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0084.740.000.04
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
DrexelCAA0.450.0350.0041.460.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.290.000.02
VirginiaACC0.510.0388.8978.430.400.02
Virginia TechACC0.450.0385.7162.500.320.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.710.030.0013.32-0.71-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.400.0322.2246.51-0.22-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.400.0366.6761.690.130.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8643.78-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.510.0370.0050.010.200.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.47-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.510.0325.0031.76-0.26-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.710.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.02-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.400.0377.7862.010.220.01
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.400.0333.3356.66-0.130.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.79-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0316.6738.83-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
UMBCAE0.400.0380.0054.190.240.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7175.250.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.510.0337.5035.03-0.13-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0328.5731.07-0.19-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0061.350.000.01
TCUB120.450.03100.0060.950.450.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.450.0333.3352.03-0.150.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.450.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.010.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0380.0058.220.000.00