North Dakota St.

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	127.4
Current RPI:	132
Expected SOS:	214
Current SOS:	214
Current Record:	13-8
Expected Record:	17-10
Current Conf Record:	8-5
Expected Conf Record:	11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	13.31%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	5-3
Expected OOC Record:	6-3
Expected OOC RPI:	126
Expected OOC SOS:	283

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-8	101.2	7.19%
18-9	113.6	30.72%
17-10	128.2	36.99%
16-11	145.3	19.27%
15-12	165.9	4.97%
14-13	185.6	0.80%
13-14	199.2	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	San Francisco (154.3)	WCC	A	65-73	W	100%	0.0
11-12	Louisiana Lafayette (158.8)	SB	N	78-58	W	100%	0.0
11-13	Northern Arizona (329.0)	BSky	N	58-70	W	100%	0.0
11-16	Wisconsin Green Bay (186.0)	Horz	H	65-61	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	78-65	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	A	55-51	L	0%	0.0
12-3	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	A	79-84	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Arizona St. (240.7)	P12	A	60-57	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Minnesota (64.5)	B10	A	63-59	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	H	96-69	W	100%	0.0
12-30	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	84-68	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	A	89-80	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	A	69-72	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	55-54	W	100%	0.0
1-14	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	82-59	W	100%	0.0
1-17	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	59-54	L	0%	0.0
1-21	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	H	88-91	L	0%	0.0
1-26	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	A	75-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	A	75-78	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	H	85-64	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	H	76-85	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	0-0		73%	6.8
2-11	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	A	0-0		78%	8.3
2-15	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	A	0-0		25%	-7.3
2-18	Western Michigan (175.4)	MAC	H	0-0		78%	8.4
2-23	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	H	0-0		84%	10.9
2-25	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	H	0-0		77%	7.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Dakota St.	Sum	26.53	26.50	64.84	66.25	7.87	8.61
South Dakota St.	Sum	3.61	4.91	72.73	74.59	1.64	2.42
Western Illinois	Sum	3.46	4.83	50.00	47.16	0.00	-0.27
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	3.40	4.82	36.36	36.81	-0.93	-1.27
Oakland	Sum	5.61	4.81	52.17	53.87	0.24	0.37
Oral Roberts	Sum	5.62	4.79	79.17	79.44	3.28	2.82
IUPUI	Sum	3.34	4.78	36.36	37.57	-0.91	-1.19
Southern Utah	Sum	5.62	4.77	50.00	47.81	0.00	-0.21
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	5.61	4.76	31.58	30.70	-2.07	-1.84
South Dakota	Sum	3.32	4.76	27.78	30.36	-1.48	-1.87
North Dakota	GWC	2.66	2.19	29.41	38.85	-1.10	-0.49
Western Michigan	MAC	0.15	1.98	40.91	43.70	-0.03	-0.25
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.53	1.95	14.29	16.85	-1.81	-1.29
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.49	1.92	56.52	56.71	0.32	0.26
San Francisco	WCC	2.48	1.92	59.09	55.75	0.45	0.22
Arizona St.	P12	2.49	1.92	27.27	29.03	-1.13	-0.80
Minnesota	B10	2.43	1.92	69.57	61.51	0.95	0.44
Fresno St.	WAC	2.43	1.88	40.91	45.99	-0.44	-0.15
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	2.38	1.85	36.84	40.92	-0.63	-0.34
Valparaiso	Horz	0.38	0.27	65.22	63.55	0.12	0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.18	0.21	17.39	19.76	-0.12	-0.13
Utah Valley	GWC	0.21	0.20	54.55	57.71	0.02	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.16	0.20	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.19	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.19	0.19	43.48	44.26	-0.03	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.17	0.00	5.31	-0.22	-0.15
Troy	SB	0.27	0.17	28.57	30.17	-0.11	-0.07
Michigan	B10	0.21	0.17	69.57	66.33	0.08	0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.17	0.16	56.52	57.81	0.02	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.16	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.16	75.00	74.01	0.06	0.08
Arizona	P12	0.20	0.16	66.67	68.55	0.07	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.16	81.82	81.50	0.09	0.10
Chicago St.	GWC	0.18	0.15	9.09	12.82	-0.15	-0.11
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.14	40.91	44.29	-0.03	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.14	31.82	32.98	-0.07	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.14	28.57	29.05	-0.05	-0.06
Montana	BSky	0.17	0.14	71.43	73.99	0.07	0.07
Weber St.	BSky	0.16	0.14	80.00	76.71	0.10	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.13	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.13	62.50	60.78	0.04	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.13	81.82	81.02	0.11	0.08
Pepperdine	WCC	0.21	0.13	31.82	33.75	-0.08	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.21	0.13	54.17	49.41	0.02	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.20	0.13	65.22	63.69	0.06	0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.21	0.13	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.10	0.13	69.57	66.59	0.04	0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.12	77.27	73.50	0.06	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.12	66.67	62.69	0.03	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.11	76.19	70.71	0.06	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.11	25.00	28.48	-0.06	-0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.17	0.11	30.00	33.22	-0.07	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.17	0.10	14.29	17.12	-0.12	-0.07
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.10	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.10	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.10	75.00	76.02	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.16	0.10	59.09	57.69	0.03	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.10	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.10	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.10	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.10	26.32	29.85	-0.05	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.10	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.16	0.10	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.10	25.00	23.73	-0.02	-0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	34.78	34.46	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.09	69.57	69.00	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.09	27.27	26.96	-0.05	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.00	0.09	68.42	66.51	0.00	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.09	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.09	81.82	77.18	0.06	0.05
Utah	P12	0.10	0.09	18.18	15.00	-0.07	-0.06
Florida International	SB	0.14	0.09	33.33	37.11	-0.05	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.09	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.09	25.00	25.08	-0.05	-0.05
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.09	68.18	67.98	0.00	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.09	38.10	37.80	-0.03	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.14	0.09	57.14	60.72	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.07	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.07	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.07	0.07	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	19.05	24.60	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.00	0.07	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.07	4.35	9.74	-0.10	-0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.07	8.33	10.84	-0.09	-0.05
Butler	Horz	0.12	0.07	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	82.61	81.41	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.07	18.18	19.91	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.07	30.00	31.40	-0.04	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.11	0.07	85.71	78.11	0.08	0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.07	21.74	21.75	-0.06	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.07	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.07	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.06	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.06	35.00	37.55	-0.03	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.06	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.06	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.06	36.00	40.36	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.04	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.18	0.04	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.06	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.06	14.29	14.31	-0.07	-0.04
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.10	0.06	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.00	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.00	-0.05
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	64.49	0.04	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.33	0.04	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.06	38.10	40.84	-0.00	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.06	56.52	54.88	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.05	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	69.57	61.84	0.04	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.04	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.04	78.26	78.42	0.04	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.88	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.04	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.03	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.58	0.05	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.03	65.00	66.71	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.03	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.00	0.03	21.05	22.46	-0.00	-0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.62	0.03	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.00	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.00	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.00	0.03	30.00	34.18	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	32.10	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.02
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.00	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.75	-0.00	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.03	0.02	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.61	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00