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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:35.0
Current RPI:35
Expected SOS:117
Current SOS:117
Current Record:22-6
Expected Record:22-6
Current Conf Record:14-2
Expected Conf Record:14-2
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:15
Expected OOC SOS:15



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-635.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA78-65L0%0.0
11-18Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH69-70L0%0.0
11-20Western Michigan (66.0)MACA74-83W100%0.0
11-24North Dakota (197.0)BSkyA95-77L0%0.0
11-29Santa Clara (210.0)WCCA85-91W100%0.0
11-30Rider (198.0)MAACN87-70W100%0.0
12-7Bryant (177.0)NECA62-66W100%0.0
12-11Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA69-73W100%0.0
12-14Ohio St. (24.0)B10A79-62L0%0.0
12-16Delaware (65.0)CAAH85-66W100%0.0
12-21Towson (95.0)CAAH90-82W100%0.0
12-23Utah Valley (144.0)WACA70-74W100%0.0
1-9IPFW (115.0)SumA82-71L0%0.0
1-11IUPUI (322.0)SumA64-87W100%0.0
1-16Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH91-69W100%0.0
1-18Western Illinois (290.0)SumH65-52W100%0.0
1-25South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA77-85W100%0.0
1-30South Dakota (255.0)SumA63-66W100%0.0
2-1Denver (139.0)SumA67-63L0%0.0
2-6IUPUI (322.0)SumH66-60W100%0.0
2-8IPFW (115.0)SumH69-58W100%0.0
2-13Western Illinois (290.0)SumA52-56W100%0.0
2-15Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA59-75W100%0.0
2-22South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH74-59W100%0.0
2-27South Dakota (255.0)SumH82-54W100%0.0
3-1Denver (139.0)SumH78-68W100%0.0
3-10Denver (139.0)SumN83-48W100%0.0
3-11IPFW (115.0)SumN60-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum26.5226.5283.5883.5817.8117.81
IPFWSum6.316.3171.4371.432.702.70
DenverSum6.246.2451.8551.850.230.23
South Dakota St.Sum4.624.6261.5461.541.071.07
IUPUISum4.564.5611.1111.11-3.55-3.55
South DakotaSum4.564.5636.0036.00-1.28-1.28
Western IllinoisSum4.504.5028.0028.00-1.98-1.98
Nebraska OmahaSum4.444.4452.0052.000.180.18
DelawareCAA1.931.9375.7675.760.990.99
Utah ValleyWAC1.911.9164.2964.290.550.55
Notre DameACC1.901.9048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC1.871.8740.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Ohio St.B101.871.8772.7372.730.850.85
BryantNEC1.871.8756.6756.670.250.25
North DakotaBSky1.851.8546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Saint Mary'sWCC1.841.8464.5264.520.540.54
TowsonCAA1.841.8470.0070.000.740.74
RiderMAAC1.791.7946.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Southern MissCUSA1.791.7980.0080.001.071.07
Western MichiganMAC1.791.7973.3373.330.830.83
PepperdineWCC0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.250.2553.3353.330.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.2432.1432.14-0.09-0.09
PacificWCC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
UTEPCUSA0.210.2167.7467.740.080.08
GonzagaWCC0.200.2081.8281.820.130.13
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
MinnesotaB100.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
StanfordP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
IowaB100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DrexelCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.140.1430.3030.30-0.05-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
SeattleWAC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
LehighPat0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
HarvardIvy0.120.1286.2186.210.090.09
Weber St.BSky0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
NorthwesternB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
PurdueB100.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
RiceCUSA0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0981.2581.250.050.05
AkronMAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0724.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0777.7877.780.040.04
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
NevadaMWC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.05-0.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00