live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:111.0
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:178
Current SOS:178
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:84



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11111.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH76-66W100%0.0
11-18Navy (208.0)PatN66-59W100%0.0
11-19UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCN65-54L0%0.0
11-20High Point (236.0)BSthA44-70W100%0.0
11-27Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA64-50L0%0.0
11-29Xavier (37.0)BEA85-55L0%0.0
12-2North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA67-85W100%0.0
12-7North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH56-74L0%0.0
12-14UC Davis (166.0)BWH74-70W100%0.0
12-16North Dakota (144.0)BSkyA70-87W100%0.0
12-20Arkansas (28.0)SECA71-55L0%0.0
12-28South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA69-80W100%0.0
12-31Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH82-70W100%0.0
1-5IUPUI (218.0)SumH93-89W100%0.0
1-11South Dakota (123.0)SumA69-70W100%0.0
1-14Denver (207.0)SumA79-55L0%0.0
1-19Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH89-83W100%0.0
1-21Western Illinois (325.0)SumA57-89W100%0.0
1-25Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH81-71W100%0.0
2-1IUPUI (218.0)SumA86-81L0%0.0
2-4South Dakota (123.0)SumH66-76L0%0.0
2-8South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH82-65W100%0.0
2-11Denver (207.0)SumH81-63W100%0.0
2-15Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA77-61L0%0.0
2-18Western Illinois (325.0)SumH100-91W100%0.0
2-22Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA80-82W100%0.0
2-25Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA96-92L0%0.0
3-4IUPUI (218.0)SumN57-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum26.5126.5164.2964.297.577.57
IUPUISum6.276.2737.0437.04-1.63-1.63
Nebraska OmahaSum4.704.7055.1755.170.490.49
South Dakota St.Sum4.674.6753.3353.330.310.31
South DakotaSum4.614.6165.5265.521.431.43
Fort WayneSum4.564.5657.6957.690.700.70
DenverSum4.544.5453.5753.570.320.32
Western IllinoisSum4.524.5225.0025.00-2.26-2.26
Oral RobertsSum4.504.5023.0823.08-2.43-2.43
North DakotaBSky3.573.5769.2369.231.371.37
UNC GreensboroSC1.881.8870.0070.000.750.75
ArkansasSEC1.851.8572.7372.730.840.84
Missouri St.MVC1.851.8548.3948.39-0.06-0.06
NavyPat1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth1.841.8444.4444.44-0.20-0.20
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.811.813.453.45-1.69-1.69
Arkansas St.SB1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
UC DavisBW1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
XavierBE1.791.7960.6160.610.380.38
Weber St.BSky0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.270.2737.9337.93-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky0.270.2755.1755.170.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.260.2644.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Southern UtahBSky0.220.2212.9012.90-0.16-0.16
Illinois St.MVC0.210.2181.2581.250.130.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
DrakeMVC0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
UC IrvineBW0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
HowardMEAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
MarquetteBE0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
AmericanPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Kansas St.B120.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1229.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1217.8617.86-0.08-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.120.1222.2222.22-0.06-0.06
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
LehighPat0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
LibertyBSth0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0910.7110.71-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
FurmanSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
USCP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01