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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:92.0
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:260
Current SOS:260
Current Record:21-9
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:199
Expected OOC SOS:303



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-992.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas (42.0)B12A85-50L0%0.0
11-17Iowa (43.0)B10A87-56L0%0.0
11-21Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH68-55W100%0.0
11-22Hampton (251.0)MEACH74-66W100%0.0
11-30Montana St. (325.0)BSkyA51-72W100%0.0
12-3Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA78-65L0%0.0
12-7Montana (144.0)BSkyA69-57L0%0.0
12-13North Dakota (310.0)BSkyH71-42W100%0.0
12-16Akron (115.0)MACH55-46W100%0.0
12-21Kent St. (94.0)MACN52-53L0%0.0
12-22Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACN50-61W100%0.0
1-2Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH72-66W100%0.0
1-4South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH72-69W100%0.0
1-8Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA72-75W100%0.0
1-14South Dakota (213.0)SumA71-67L0%0.0
1-16Western Illinois (328.0)SumH61-48W100%0.0
1-22IUPUI (260.0)SumA61-69W100%0.0
1-24IPFW (215.0)SumA77-71L0%0.0
1-29Denver (232.0)SumH61-54W100%0.0
2-1Western Illinois (328.0)SumA62-64W100%0.0
2-5Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH64-57W100%0.0
2-7South Dakota (213.0)SumH71-47W100%0.0
2-12Denver (232.0)SumA69-73W100%0.0
2-14South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA68-58L0%0.0
2-19IUPUI (260.0)SumH57-48W100%0.0
2-21IPFW (215.0)SumH66-62W100%0.0
2-26Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA74-58L0%0.0
3-7Denver (232.0)SumN61-50W100%0.0
3-9Oral Roberts (163.0)SumN60-56W100%0.0
3-10South Dakota St. (90.0)SumN56-57W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum26.6326.6375.8375.8313.7613.76
South Dakota St.Sum6.076.0771.4371.432.602.60
Oral RobertsSum5.975.9755.5655.560.660.66
DenverSum5.915.9144.4444.44-0.66-0.66
South DakotaSum4.514.5148.2848.28-0.16-0.16
Western IllinoisSum4.394.3925.0025.00-2.20-2.20
IUPUISum4.394.3934.4834.48-1.36-1.36
IPFWSum4.344.3448.0048.00-0.17-0.17
Nebraska OmahaSum4.324.3242.3142.31-0.67-0.67
North DakotaBSky1.921.9222.2222.22-1.07-1.07
MontanaBSky1.841.8458.6258.620.320.32
Montana St.BSky1.841.8421.4321.43-1.05-1.05
AkronMAC1.811.8160.6160.610.380.38
Alcorn St.SWAC1.771.7717.2417.24-1.16-1.16
Kent St.MAC1.771.7763.3363.330.470.47
IowaB101.741.7464.5264.520.510.51
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
HamptonMEAC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
TexasB121.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Southern MissCUSA1.671.6723.0823.08-0.90-0.90
IdahoBSky0.370.3739.2939.29-0.08-0.08
Idaho St.BSky0.310.3117.8617.86-0.20-0.20
Weber St.BSky0.250.2539.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.2346.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.220.2290.9190.910.180.18
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1562.9662.960.040.04
MemphisAmer0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
WyomingMWC0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
OhioMAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
UTEPCUSA0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Kansas St.B120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
ToledoMAC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MarquetteBE0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
UMBCAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01