live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


North Dakota St.

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:210.6
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:188
Current SOS:185
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-655.00.01%
19-766.80.04%
18-882.90.38%
17-997.60.85%
16-10116.92.67%
15-11136.25.76%
14-12159.310.01%
13-13181.014.70%
12-14203.017.73%
11-15225.817.62%
10-16246.913.42%
9-17267.78.89%
8-18285.15.12%
7-19301.92.05%
6-20318.00.56%
5-21326.80.16%
4-22334.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas (6.6)B12A85-50L0%0.0
11-17Iowa (38.6)B10A87-56L0%0.0
11-21Kennesaw St. (321.5)ASunH68-55W100%0.0
11-22Hampton (241.8)MEACH74-66W100%0.0
11-30Montana St. (308.0)BSkyA0-062%3.7
12-3Southern Miss (141.9)CUSAA0-024%-8.4
12-7Montana (208.9)BSkyA0-035%-4.8
12-13North Dakota (233.3)BSkyH0-064%4.3
12-16Akron (100.7)MACH0-038%-3.5
12-21Kent St. (73.2)MACN0-023%-8.8
1-2Oral Roberts (161.1)SumH0-049%-0.3
1-4South Dakota St. (172.6)SumH0-052%0.6
1-8Nebraska Omaha (226.5)SumA0-037%-4.0
1-14South Dakota (228.8)SumA0-035%-4.6
1-16Western Illinois (286.8)SumH0-071%6.7
1-22IUPUI (261.8)SumA0-051%0.3
1-24IPFW (150.5)SumA0-022%-9.3
1-29Denver (124.2)SumH0-041%-2.6
2-1Western Illinois (286.8)SumA0-048%-0.5
2-5Nebraska Omaha (226.5)SumH0-061%3.2
2-7South Dakota (228.8)SumH0-058%2.6
2-12Denver (124.2)SumA0-021%-9.8
2-14South Dakota St. (172.6)SumA0-029%-6.6
2-19IUPUI (261.8)SumH0-073%7.5
2-21IPFW (150.5)SumH0-043%-2.2
2-26Oral Roberts (161.1)SumA0-027%-7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Dakota St.Sum30.9426.4550.0044.950.00-2.67
South DakotaSum0.004.890.0041.77-0.00-0.81
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.8666.6746.270.00-0.36
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.8633.3348.55-0.00-0.14
Western IllinoisSum0.004.8433.3332.14-0.00-1.73
IUPUISum0.004.8350.0031.390.00-1.80
DenverSum0.004.8350.0060.890.001.05
Oral RobertsSum0.004.8233.3348.40-0.00-0.15
IPFWSum0.004.8150.0063.400.001.29
North DakotaBSky0.002.200.0044.31-0.00-0.25
Montana St.BSky0.002.130.0023.00-0.00-1.15
MontanaBSky0.002.120.0047.32-0.00-0.11
AkronMAC0.002.0766.6763.810.000.57
Kent St.MAC0.002.02100.0070.770.000.84
IowaB1015.621.9933.3364.42-5.210.57
Kennesaw St.ASun12.501.9625.0027.85-6.25-0.87
HamptonMEAC14.061.9533.3353.40-4.690.13
TexasB1214.061.95100.0081.1414.061.22
Southern MissCUSA0.001.9250.0052.560.000.10
IdahoBSky0.000.3950.0047.120.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.310.0028.34-0.00-0.13
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.270.0053.10-0.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.240.0048.20-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.2166.6734.100.00-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.2066.6760.610.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.20100.0072.420.000.09
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1766.6768.230.000.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1733.3354.70-0.000.02
PurdueB100.000.17100.0060.550.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.170.0033.14-0.00-0.06
StanfordP120.000.1675.0071.090.000.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.160.0036.36-0.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.150.0066.25-0.000.05
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1450.0051.860.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.140.0025.03-0.00-0.07
StetsonASun0.000.140.0032.07-0.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.14100.0050.420.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1450.0046.250.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.140.0019.17-0.00-0.08
UMKCWAC0.000.1433.3355.40-0.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.14100.0030.790.00-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.130.0031.63-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.13100.0072.860.000.06
OklahomaB120.000.1350.0058.120.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.13100.0061.500.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0033.68-0.00-0.04
OhioMAC0.000.1350.0056.270.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.130.0050.76-0.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.1333.3364.19-0.000.04
WyomingMWC0.000.13100.0070.850.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1325.0035.61-0.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1366.6754.240.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.1366.6752.320.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.13100.0045.990.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.130.0035.51-0.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC4.380.130.0031.92-4.38-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0063.44-0.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1125.0035.65-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1050.0045.600.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1033.3349.04-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.1033.3340.91-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.1066.6769.700.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0062.400.000.03
CaliforniaP122.810.1075.0069.831.410.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.100.0057.63-0.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0039.36-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.1050.0054.900.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1050.0044.170.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0028.50-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.10100.0051.050.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1066.6749.370.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0054.710.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.100.0025.08-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0067.100.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.100.0042.80-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.100.0047.13-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC4.380.1075.0068.162.190.04
UMBCAE0.000.100.0036.19-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.100.0072.02-0.000.04
MinnesotaB100.000.1066.6761.350.000.02
KansasB120.000.1050.0061.790.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.10100.0050.830.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.830.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0833.3346.93-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0850.0029.910.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.080.0034.07-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0866.6744.970.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0037.760.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0035.64-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0053.080.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.920.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0766.6754.020.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0733.3354.50-0.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.070.0047.90-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0775.0071.100.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6749.590.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0725.0066.02-0.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.07100.0049.460.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0766.6753.050.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.070.0043.18-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0069.180.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0750.0037.430.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0043.160.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.200.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0750.0045.890.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0019.92-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0025.43-0.00-0.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0733.3346.76-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0065.140.000.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0775.0057.480.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0733.3327.11-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6773.760.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0046.020.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0055.850.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3344.56-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0049.250.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0725.0031.12-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.070.0040.40-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0033.75-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0733.3345.85-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0024.17-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0750.0037.110.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.830.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0766.6767.990.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0053.210.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0775.0075.140.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.630.000.05
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0047.170.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0675.0057.060.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0064.090.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0666.6752.030.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
XavierBE0.000.06100.0077.070.000.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0069.300.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0042.120.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0071.340.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.900.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.04100.0058.780.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0475.0063.040.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.04100.0070.030.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0450.0053.040.000.00
DrexelCAA0.000.040.0032.23-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0034.98-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0433.3336.99-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0475.0060.550.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.04100.0045.790.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.04100.0080.090.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.04100.0056.240.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.04100.0062.040.000.01
TroySB0.000.040.0045.18-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0433.3341.77-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0350.0054.620.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3321.74-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0325.0033.97-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0061.850.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.59-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
MercerSC1.250.0350.0052.260.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.530.000.02
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.660.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0325.0031.88-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0062.510.000.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0076.190.000.02
IndianaB100.000.03100.0062.040.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3353.79-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0333.3322.74-0.00-0.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0064.500.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0064.370.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3343.68-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6748.850.00-0.00