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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Eastern Kentucky

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:198.0
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:259
Current Record:13-12
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:5-6
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:156
Expected OOC SOS:247



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12151.60.77%
17-13167.27.33%
16-14182.625.14%
15-15198.837.07%
14-16215.423.68%
13-17233.06.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Coppin St. (326.4)MEACH107-80W100%0.0
11-16UNC Wilmington (61.3)CAAA78-59L0%0.0
11-20Ball St. (166.1)MACH89-81W100%0.0
11-21South Carolina St. (205.4)MEACH92-82W100%0.0
11-22Longwood (319.5)BSthH110-97W100%0.0
11-28Southern Utah (334.6)BSkyH98-85W100%0.0
12-1Western Kentucky (176.7)CUSAA86-84L0%0.0
12-5Savannah St. (328.8)MEACA71-74W100%0.0
12-9Kentucky (17.5)SECA88-67L0%0.0
12-12Marshall (126.2)CUSAA96-72L0%0.0
12-15Florida Atlantic (279.8)CUSAH80-73W100%0.0
12-18East Tennessee St. (123.1)SCA87-81L0%0.0
12-21West Virginia (10.0)B12A84-59L0%0.0
12-29Manhattan (227.3)MAACH76-64W100%0.0
1-2Austin Peay (241.1)OVCA70-79W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Martin (240.8)OVCH70-78L0%0.0
1-9Southeast Missouri St. (332.3)OVCH88-69W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Illinois (256.1)OVCA97-85L0%0.0
1-16SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCA67-65L0%0.0
1-21Jacksonville St. (305.0)OVCH91-88W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee Tech (98.1)OVCH83-89L0%0.0
1-27Murray St. (187.7)OVCH71-75L0%0.0
1-30Morehead St. (161.8)OVCH67-70L0%0.0
2-4Tennessee St. (162.7)OVCA81-97W100%0.0
2-6Belmont (83.7)OVCA78-88W100%0.0
2-11Morehead St. (161.8)OVCA0-025%-7.4
2-13Tennessee St. (162.7)OVCH0-059%2.5
2-18Belmont (83.7)OVCH0-039%-3.1
2-25Jacksonville St. (305.0)OVCA0-059%2.5
2-27Tennessee Tech (98.1)OVCA0-026%-7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern KentuckyOVC26.1226.1951.4050.290.730.15
Morehead St.OVC2.534.0547.6249.55-0.12-0.04
BelmontOVC2.494.0369.5769.200.971.55
Tennessee TechOVC2.494.0266.6765.020.831.21
Jacksonville St.OVC2.454.0026.0924.62-1.17-2.03
Tennessee St.OVC2.403.9970.0066.030.961.28
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.532.3238.1041.37-0.60-0.40
Tennessee MartinOVC2.442.3045.4548.41-0.22-0.07
Austin PeayOVC2.452.2739.1341.99-0.53-0.36
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.442.2713.6417.71-1.78-1.46
Murray St.OVC2.442.2642.8647.73-0.35-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.442.2614.2916.38-1.74-1.52
MarshallCUSA2.221.8747.8349.58-0.10-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC2.141.8257.1457.970.310.29
South Carolina St.MEAC2.141.8254.5556.170.190.22
Western KentuckyCUSA2.131.8142.8644.32-0.30-0.21
Savannah St.MEAC2.051.7640.0039.19-0.41-0.38
Ball St.MAC2.131.7663.6459.160.580.32
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.131.7523.8128.19-1.12-0.76
Coppin St.MEAC2.091.7315.0021.50-1.46-0.99
LongwoodBSth2.091.7223.8125.90-1.09-0.83
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.051.7075.0072.401.020.76
West VirginiaB122.041.6978.2677.361.150.93
KentuckySEC2.001.6773.9171.700.960.72
ManhattanMAAC2.001.6745.0043.61-0.20-0.21
Southern UtahBSky2.001.6715.7915.93-1.37-1.14
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.270.3271.4369.410.110.12
LipscombASun0.260.3025.0029.30-0.13-0.12
UABCUSA0.170.2382.6179.370.110.13
TennesseeSEC0.220.2050.0048.130.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1854.1750.940.020.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.220.1825.0033.22-0.11-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.220.1831.8236.14-0.08-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1886.9686.660.100.13
Miami OHMAC0.180.1834.7833.09-0.05-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.1836.8442.89-0.06-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.220.1770.8369.490.090.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.169.0912.24-0.11-0.12
Morgan St.MEAC0.190.1619.0525.89-0.12-0.08
CampbellBSth0.230.1528.5729.65-0.10-0.06
Green BayHorz0.180.1554.5556.020.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.1533.3335.06-0.06-0.04
StetsonASun0.140.1523.8127.67-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1521.7423.40-0.07-0.08
Southern MissCUSA0.090.1531.5832.01-0.03-0.05
OhioMAC0.180.1463.6461.420.050.03
UTSACUSA0.180.1413.6413.63-0.13-0.10
SamfordSC0.130.1441.6742.60-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1481.8283.040.080.09
FIUCUSA0.180.1440.9145.30-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.1447.6249.35-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1434.7840.91-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1456.5262.790.020.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1325.0025.08-0.07-0.06
HowardMEAC0.050.1336.3638.92-0.01-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1343.4850.65-0.020.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.190.1329.1733.12-0.08-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1229.1733.74-0.06-0.04
IndianaB100.130.1279.1774.040.080.06
Saint LouisA100.130.1236.3633.54-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1275.0076.250.070.06
Western CarolinaSC0.090.1228.5731.30-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1228.5726.98-0.06-0.05
WinthropBSth0.090.1265.0063.410.030.03
AkronMAC0.180.1282.6181.140.110.07
Kansas St.B120.170.1260.8758.300.040.02
UTEPCUSA0.130.1152.1751.920.010.00
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1145.8342.26-0.01-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.1159.0953.250.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.140.0959.0961.320.030.02
IowaB100.090.0982.6180.550.060.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0950.0054.200.000.01
TowsonCAA0.100.0965.2259.770.030.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.0965.0069.240.030.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0963.6460.920.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.0972.0070.540.060.04
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0942.8639.22-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0940.0040.31-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0965.2264.220.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0950.0051.300.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.140.0943.4841.96-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0950.0053.100.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0939.1338.57-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.0965.2266.200.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0940.0043.44-0.02-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.130.0952.1751.910.010.00
IPFWSum0.130.0970.8368.550.050.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0950.0049.830.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.130.0931.8232.69-0.05-0.03
WoffordSC0.090.0943.4846.22-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0972.7366.400.040.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0973.9170.050.040.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.094.357.72-0.08-0.07
Arizona St.P120.080.0854.1751.690.010.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0871.4368.760.020.03
North TexasCUSA0.090.0833.3333.04-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.090.0828.5729.66-0.04-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0852.0048.860.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.090.0859.0953.180.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0856.5259.860.010.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0866.6766.320.030.03
KansasB120.120.0882.6179.190.080.05
UtahP120.100.0669.5767.500.040.02
FordhamA100.100.0655.0052.190.010.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.44-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.940.010.01
DelawareCAA0.100.0621.7423.34-0.05-0.03
DrexelCAA0.100.0613.6418.15-0.07-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0652.3854.080.000.01
ElonCAA0.050.0652.1750.420.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0615.0018.09-0.03-0.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0669.5766.580.040.02
IdahoBSky0.100.0654.5554.950.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0634.7837.17-0.01-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.32-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0657.8962.320.010.02
Montana St.BSky0.050.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0665.2268.600.010.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0610.0013.14-0.04-0.05
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0633.3334.95-0.03-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.16-0.04-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.830.020.02
ButlerBE0.090.0669.5767.150.040.02
MemphisAmer0.090.0660.8760.820.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0659.0959.630.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.040.0631.5837.70-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0685.7185.380.070.04
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.73-0.04-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0614.2915.46-0.06-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0666.6765.220.030.02
FairfieldMAAC0.100.0654.1754.140.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0645.4547.57-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.090.0633.3333.68-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0655.0057.460.000.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.50-0.01-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0621.7424.19-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0680.0081.160.030.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0624.0024.55-0.05-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0625.0026.86-0.02-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0636.3636.15-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0640.0042.11-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.100.0664.0064.140.030.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0634.7830.33-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.68-0.05-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0650.0045.840.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.090.0640.0039.81-0.02-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0656.5257.280.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0623.8126.56-0.05-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.430.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.300.020.01
MississippiSEC0.090.0662.5058.930.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0656.5257.010.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0628.5733.36-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.040.0666.6769.490.010.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0621.7422.74-0.02-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0654.1754.060.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0662.5056.050.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0669.5769.020.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.040.0633.3334.22-0.01-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0676.1972.280.040.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0627.2731.05-0.04-0.02
VMISC0.090.0615.0016.72-0.06-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0682.6181.120.060.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0660.0055.500.020.01
RichmondA100.090.0654.5554.470.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.090.0679.1776.070.050.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0643.4843.78-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0660.0057.610.000.01
ToledoMAC0.040.0660.8762.040.010.01
LSUSEC0.040.0565.2260.260.010.01
OklahomaB120.040.0586.9682.650.030.04
TCUB120.040.0545.8339.34-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.040.0566.6762.200.010.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.830.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.090.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.98-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0354.5550.110.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0335.0032.27-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.300.030.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.830.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.93-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.1145.67-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.160.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0360.0060.080.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.75-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.050.0333.3333.13-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0364.0062.060.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0340.9143.29-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0371.4368.940.020.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.38-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.02-0.01
USCP120.040.0378.2673.050.020.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.21-0.03-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.510.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.600.030.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0365.2267.130.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.040.0339.1341.10-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0381.8282.630.030.02
TroySB0.040.0323.8126.71-0.02-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.860.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.910.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.810.030.02
BradleyMVC0.040.0312.5012.90-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.040.0356.5256.990.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0365.2260.590.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.040.0327.7834.43-0.02-0.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0376.0076.310.020.01
AuburnSEC0.040.0339.1335.43-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0354.1755.600.000.00
DukeACC0.040.0375.0071.800.020.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
MarylandB100.040.0387.5083.700.030.02
NJITASun0.040.0354.1755.280.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0372.7372.110.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.110.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2677.860.000.01
UCLAP120.040.0356.5253.270.010.00
VirginiaACC0.040.0383.3378.470.030.02
WyomingMWC0.040.0343.4842.49-0.01-0.00