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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Eastern Kentucky

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:211.0
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:210
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC Record:8-6
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16211.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Coppin St. (326.0)MEACH107-80W100%0.0
11-16UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAA78-59L0%0.0
11-20Ball St. (179.0)MACH89-81W100%0.0
11-21South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACH92-82W100%0.0
11-22Longwood (323.0)BSthH110-97W100%0.0
11-28Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH98-85W100%0.0
12-1Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA86-84L0%0.0
12-5Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA71-74W100%0.0
12-9Kentucky (11.0)SECA88-67L0%0.0
12-12Marshall (128.0)CUSAA96-72L0%0.0
12-15Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAH80-73W100%0.0
12-18East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA87-81L0%0.0
12-21West Virginia (10.0)B12A84-59L0%0.0
12-29Manhattan (229.0)MAACH76-64W100%0.0
1-2Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA70-79W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH70-78L0%0.0
1-9Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH88-69W100%0.0
1-14Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA97-85L0%0.0
1-16SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA67-65L0%0.0
1-21Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH91-88W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH83-89L0%0.0
1-27Murray St. (169.0)OVCH71-75L0%0.0
1-30Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH67-70L0%0.0
2-4Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA81-97W100%0.0
2-6Belmont (98.0)OVCA78-88W100%0.0
2-11Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA61-50L0%0.0
2-13Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH78-79L0%0.0
2-18Belmont (98.0)OVCH78-86L0%0.0
2-25Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA54-76W100%0.0
2-27Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA92-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern KentuckyOVC26.1326.1346.2746.27-1.95-1.95
Morehead St.OVC4.084.0855.5655.560.450.45
BelmontOVC4.024.0264.2964.291.151.15
Tennessee TechOVC4.024.0257.6957.690.620.62
Tennessee St.OVC3.993.9965.3865.381.231.23
Jacksonville St.OVC3.973.9722.2222.22-2.20-2.20
Austin PeayOVC2.452.4550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC2.352.3553.3353.330.160.16
Murray St.OVC2.332.3350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.322.3237.0437.04-0.60-0.60
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.242.2418.5218.52-1.41-1.41
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.242.2411.5411.54-1.72-1.72
MarshallCUSA1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC1.841.8456.6756.670.240.24
East Tennessee St.SC1.811.8164.5264.520.530.53
Western KentuckyCUSA1.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC1.751.7560.0060.000.350.35
Coppin St.MEAC1.751.7525.0025.00-0.87-0.87
Savannah St.MEAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.741.7423.3323.33-0.93-0.93
LongwoodBSth1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.691.6975.8675.860.880.88
West VirginiaB121.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
KentuckySEC1.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
Southern UtahBSky1.671.6714.8114.81-1.17-1.17
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.330.3370.9770.970.140.14
LipscombASun0.280.2832.2632.26-0.10-0.10
UABCUSA0.240.2480.6580.650.150.15
ChattanoogaSC0.200.2084.3884.380.130.13
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.190.1944.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1862.8662.860.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.170.1716.6716.67-0.11-0.11
UTSACUSA0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
James MadisonCAA0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
StetsonASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
CampbellBSth0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
SamfordSC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
HowardMEAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
IndianaB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
HofstraCAA0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Kansas St.B120.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.453.45-0.08-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01