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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Eastern Kentucky

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:174.2
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:258
Current SOS:138
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:161
Expected OOC SOS:184



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-675.40.07%
20-790.70.64%
19-8103.72.30%
18-9119.46.25%
17-10135.412.62%
16-11153.718.37%
15-12173.321.46%
14-13193.617.59%
13-14214.311.72%
12-15235.95.94%
11-16258.02.37%
10-17277.00.57%
9-18293.10.08%
8-19303.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Savannah St. (320.9)MEACH76-53W100%0.0
11-26Southern Utah (316.6)BSkyA64-73W100%0.0
11-29BYU (54.5)WCCA90-76L0%0.0
12-3Valparaiso (100.6)HorzH66-72L0%0.0
12-7Kentucky (1.7)SECA82-49L0%0.0
12-13IUPUI (293.7)SumA64-73W100%0.0
12-16East Tennessee St. (127.1)SCH60-63L0%0.0
12-19Miami FL (22.2)ACCA0-06%-18.8
12-22Florida Atlantic (174.0)CUSAA0-037%-4.0
12-30Coppin St. (335.2)MEACA0-087%13.5
1-3South Carolina St. (309.4)MEACH0-092%16.9
1-8Tennessee Martin (144.0)OVCA0-029%-6.6
1-10Southeast Missouri St. (245.5)OVCA0-045%-1.5
1-15Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCH0-080%9.9
1-17SIU Edwardsville (330.8)OVCH0-089%14.4
1-22Jacksonville St. (265.9)OVCA0-064%4.4
1-24Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCA0-044%-1.8
1-29Murray St. (161.3)OVCA0-033%-5.3
1-31Morehead St. (209.0)OVCA0-036%-4.2
2-5Belmont (131.1)OVCH0-059%2.6
2-7Tennessee St. (326.9)OVCH0-091%16.0
2-11Morehead St. (209.0)OVCH0-065%4.6
2-14Tennessee St. (326.9)OVCA0-073%7.3
2-17Austin Peay (300.0)OVCH0-084%11.9
2-19Belmont (131.1)OVCA0-030%-6.2
2-26Jacksonville St. (265.9)OVCH0-087%13.1
2-28Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCH0-072%6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern KentuckyOVC27.8726.2145.9558.62-2.264.52
Morehead St.OVC0.514.4618.1845.95-0.32-0.36
Jacksonville St.OVC0.324.4655.5639.500.04-0.94
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.4650.0050.360.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.430.0016.88-0.00-2.93
BelmontOVC0.004.4360.0062.950.001.15
Murray St.OVC0.362.5555.5661.430.040.58
Austin PeayOVC0.002.5222.2231.53-0.00-0.93
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.5233.3339.85-0.00-0.51
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.5244.4447.10-0.00-0.15
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.5262.5066.540.000.83
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.510.0024.88-0.00-1.26
Savannah St.MEAC7.142.0420.0029.02-4.29-0.86
East Tennessee St.SC7.502.0166.6762.692.500.51
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.9520.0030.08-0.00-0.78
ValparaisoHorz7.651.9277.7868.734.250.72
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.920.0014.78-0.00-1.35
Miami FLACC0.321.8890.0075.140.260.95
BYUWCC7.141.8562.5066.631.790.62
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.001.8550.0051.870.000.07
IUPUISum7.141.8522.2227.09-3.97-0.85
KentuckySEC7.141.85100.0094.497.141.65
Southern UtahBSky7.141.8520.0028.15-4.29-0.81
LipscombASun0.000.3325.0042.50-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2760.0049.650.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.2344.4470.22-0.000.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.2344.4444.99-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.320.2325.0038.24-0.16-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.000.2340.0050.16-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2055.5648.830.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.2055.5653.800.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.320.2037.5048.87-0.08-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.1950.0046.160.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.360.1930.0044.01-0.14-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.320.19100.0085.210.320.13
PortlandWCC0.360.1766.6748.960.12-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1720.0034.02-0.00-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1741.6744.37-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1711.1143.93-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1740.0046.88-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1744.4456.92-0.000.02
WinthropBSth1.160.1628.5747.18-0.50-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.360.1675.0070.220.180.07
DenverSum0.000.1650.0053.980.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1675.0078.710.000.09
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1344.4451.18-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.360.1333.3334.56-0.12-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1328.5756.75-0.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.1333.3338.24-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0012.28-0.00-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1320.0037.19-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1350.0056.370.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0023.23-0.00-0.07
IPFWSum0.000.1357.1456.730.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0032.05-0.00-0.05
OaklandHorz0.000.1330.0032.16-0.00-0.05
MissouriSEC0.360.1344.4431.65-0.04-0.05
VirginiaACC0.000.13100.0085.770.000.09
AlabamaSEC0.000.1366.6755.660.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.1157.1447.960.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.1033.3331.37-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.400.1028.5742.24-0.17-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.1080.0072.470.000.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1018.1821.69-0.00-0.06
VCUA100.000.1070.0071.520.000.04
TulaneAmer0.320.1087.5054.920.240.01
Ball St.MAC0.710.1028.5736.94-0.31-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.360.1033.3332.85-0.12-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0017.71-0.00-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1077.7869.420.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1010.0018.36-0.00-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1070.0066.610.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1025.0023.97-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1025.0033.13-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.008.71-0.00-0.08
San DiegoWCC0.000.1054.5557.610.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1022.2240.77-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.1014.2945.52-0.36-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1075.0050.770.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1066.6752.510.000.00
DrakeMVC0.710.1020.0020.14-0.43-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1044.4449.01-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.1072.7365.950.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0975.0058.890.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0955.5665.660.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0962.5059.460.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0975.0060.600.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0960.0064.870.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0750.0054.660.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0725.0029.26-0.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0716.6733.24-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0737.5041.84-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0737.5040.12-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0725.0032.64-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0740.0050.48-0.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0742.8641.92-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0716.6730.49-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0785.7161.530.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.510.0722.2237.53-0.28-0.02
UTSACUSA0.600.0742.8637.04-0.09-0.02
VMISC0.000.0733.3338.88-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.510.0722.2245.85-0.28-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0777.7876.160.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.360.0720.0038.33-0.21-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0766.6764.900.000.02
Kansas St.B120.920.0760.0037.340.18-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0766.6770.610.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0744.4449.46-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0744.4439.99-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0771.4348.780.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0037.520.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0722.2242.15-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0760.0037.230.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0745.4544.47-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.03
Montana St.BSky0.320.0625.0027.83-0.16-0.03
XavierBE0.360.0680.0071.020.210.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1461.280.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.36-0.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0065.060.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.44-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0091.070.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.75-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5660.050.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.620.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8638.32-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.420.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.27-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.530.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.280.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.780.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7862.380.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.750.000.03
PurdueB100.750.0672.7363.690.340.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.33-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.480.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4444.76-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1454.700.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.79-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0037.67-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0037.400.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.320.0670.0071.470.130.03
ProvidenceBE0.320.0672.7352.880.150.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.360.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.100.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0425.0044.80-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0485.7170.330.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.040.0012.02-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0460.0034.010.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0333.3345.72-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.600.0375.0068.510.300.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.080.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.600.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.59-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.500.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5048.14-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.68-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.600.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.640.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.600.0330.0028.35-0.24-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.40-0.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.830.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0033.280.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6725.04-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.38-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0032.540.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1128.93-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0355.5635.040.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.600.0333.3340.60-0.20-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.280.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.82-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.64-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0340.0033.85-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.1456.210.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.540.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0360.0061.810.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.200.000.02
IndianaB100.320.0380.0057.470.190.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.810.000.01
MaineAE0.360.0311.1121.17-0.28-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.690.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.360.0370.0058.440.140.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6759.200.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.710.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.730.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6751.310.000.00
TroySB0.000.0333.3340.58-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0072.030.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.400.0342.8638.50-0.06-0.01
HawaiiBW0.400.0366.6754.090.130.00
Long Beach St.BW0.400.0340.0049.99-0.08-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.530.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.400.0370.0072.770.160.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0058.750.000.01
UtahP120.400.0377.7879.670.220.02
Utah St.MWC0.400.0350.0053.110.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.360.0362.5071.700.090.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4435.62-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.320.0333.3341.58-0.11-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.320.0375.0069.340.160.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.320.0362.5065.190.080.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0325.0037.61-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.440.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.320.0336.3644.37-0.09-0.00
KansasB120.320.0388.8969.540.250.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.320.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.270.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6757.600.000.00
TexasB120.320.0390.0081.760.260.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.350.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.410.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.320.0355.5654.760.040.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.030.00-0.01