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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Eastern Kentucky

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:97.0
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:229
Current Record:22-9
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:222



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-997.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8FIU (202.0)CUSAN83-61W100%0.0
11-9Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA60-68W100%0.0
11-10Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzN67-75L0%0.0
11-16High Point (172.0)BSthH74-67W100%0.0
11-19Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH82-68W100%0.0
11-30North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA75-56L0%0.0
12-5VCU (13.0)A10A71-68L0%0.0
12-7Longwood (337.0)BSthA67-76W100%0.0
12-14Wisconsin (6.0)B10A86-61L0%0.0
12-18North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH84-73W100%0.0
12-29IPFW (115.0)SumA68-90W100%0.0
1-2Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA81-100W100%0.0
1-4SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA85-79L0%0.0
1-8Murray St. (142.0)OVCH64-77L0%0.0
1-11Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA65-76W100%0.0
1-16Belmont (57.0)OVCH74-63W100%0.0
1-18Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH60-56W100%0.0
1-23Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA78-94W100%0.0
1-25Belmont (57.0)OVCA84-81L0%0.0
1-30Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH89-66W100%0.0
2-1Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH79-78W100%0.0
2-4Chattanooga (243.0)SCH74-63W100%0.0
2-8Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH79-86L0%0.0
2-13Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA72-66L0%0.0
2-15Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA65-86W100%0.0
2-22Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA75-96W100%0.0
2-27Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH74-67W100%0.0
3-1Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH70-66W100%0.0
3-6Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCN84-76W100%0.0
3-7Murray St. (142.0)OVCN83-86W100%0.0
3-8Belmont (57.0)OVCN73-79W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern KentuckyOVC26.3226.3274.1374.1312.7012.70
BelmontOVC5.575.5775.8675.862.882.88
Morehead St.OVC4.094.0958.6258.620.700.70
Tennessee TechOVC4.044.0448.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Jacksonville St.OVC3.953.9529.6329.63-1.61-1.61
Tennessee St.OVC3.953.9514.8114.81-2.78-2.78
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.893.8957.1457.140.560.56
Murray St.OVC3.853.8560.0060.000.770.77
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.412.4133.3333.33-0.80-0.80
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.382.3828.5728.57-1.02-1.02
Austin PeayOVC2.332.3337.0437.04-0.60-0.60
Tennessee MartinOVC2.302.3021.4321.43-1.32-1.32
IPFWSum1.781.7870.0070.000.710.71
Alabama A&MSWAC1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Kennesaw St.ASun1.721.7214.2914.29-1.23-1.23
Youngstown St.Horz1.701.7039.2939.29-0.36-0.36
LongwoodBSth1.701.7014.8114.81-1.19-1.19
ChattanoogaSC1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
VCUA101.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
High PointBSth1.671.6751.8551.850.060.06
FIUCUSA1.671.6748.1548.15-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.641.6426.6726.67-0.77-0.77
North Carolina St.ACC1.611.6160.6160.610.340.34
WisconsinB101.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
LipscombASun0.430.4348.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.2270.9770.970.090.09
East Tennessee St.ASun0.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.210.2110.3410.34-0.17-0.17
TennesseeSEC0.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Saint LouisA100.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
AuburnSEC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
RichmondA100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
LibertyBSth0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
CampbellBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UICHorz0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
WoffordSC0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Green BayHorz0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
South DakotaSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
VMIBSth0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.1130.3030.30-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01