Eastern Kentucky

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	207.5
Current RPI:	194
Expected SOS:	284
Current SOS:	279
Current Record:	12-12
Expected Record:	15-14
Current Conf Record:	6-6
Expected Conf Record:	8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-5
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	189
Expected OOC SOS:	281

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	168.9	5.04%
16-13	188.4	27.01%
15-14	208.3	38.43%
14-15	226.2	22.92%
13-16	243.4	5.83%
12-17	259.3	0.76%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-7	Mississippi St. (41.8)	SEC	A	76-66	L	0%	0.0
11-12	Winthrop (267.3)	BSth	A	59-71	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	A	78-50	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Liberty (310.4)	BSth	A	65-73	W	100%	0.0
11-19	William & Mary (303.9)	CAA	N	44-63	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Lehigh (110.6)	Pat	N	76-51	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Norfolk St. (130.0)	MEAC	A	70-63	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Delaware St. (273.1)	MEAC	A	57-43	L	0%	0.0
12-6	North Carolina Central (229.3)	MEAC	H	75-62	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	H	63-59	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	A	53-59	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Arkansas (66.4)	SEC	A	71-57	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	H	67-65	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Tennessee St. (156.7)	OVC	H	73-68	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Murray St. (30.8)	OVC	A	76-67	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	H	63-59	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	A	80-65	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Morehead St. (187.2)	OVC	A	57-54	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Tennessee Martin (322.4)	OVC	H	86-78	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Longwood (318.3)	ind	H	78-71	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	H	65-82	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Tennessee St. (156.7)	OVC	A	91-85	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	A	43-47	W	100%	0.0
2-4	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	A	80-74	L	0%	0.0
2-11	Morehead St. (187.2)	OVC	H	0-0		58%	2.1
2-15	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	A	0-0		22%	-8.5
2-18	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	0-0		67%	4.8
2-23	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	H	0-0		80%	9.2
2-25	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	H	0-0		74%	7.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	26.31	26.28	56.25	54.75	3.29	2.50
Morehead St.	OVC	2.69	4.20	42.86	45.23	-0.38	-0.40
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.70	4.14	59.09	57.59	0.49	0.63
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.77	4.13	57.14	53.29	0.68	0.27
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.68	4.13	22.22	27.00	-1.49	-1.90
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.65	4.11	35.00	36.29	-0.80	-1.13
Austin Peay	OVC	4.74	4.11	30.43	34.35	-1.85	-1.29
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.70	2.54	36.36	39.85	-0.74	-0.52
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.79	2.53	4.55	10.08	-2.54	-2.02
Murray St.	OVC	2.60	2.50	100.00	94.36	2.60	2.22
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.65	2.48	50.00	49.01	0.00	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	2.35	1.93	28.57	28.34	-1.01	-0.84
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.19	1.88	68.18	69.37	0.80	0.73
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.27	1.88	35.29	39.15	-0.67	-0.41
Presbyterian	BSth	2.18	1.88	38.10	41.57	-0.52	-0.32
Winthrop	BSth	2.23	1.85	36.36	36.04	-0.61	-0.52
William & Mary	CAA	2.22	1.82	13.04	13.89	-1.64	-1.31
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.17	1.81	77.27	71.35	1.19	0.77
Lehigh	Pat	2.17	1.78	72.73	74.05	0.99	0.86
Arkansas	SEC	2.13	1.78	68.18	64.02	0.77	0.50
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.14	1.76	44.44	47.73	-0.24	-0.08
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	1.75	33.33	32.15	-0.02	-0.63
Longwood	ind	2.08	1.75	30.00	26.78	-0.83	-0.81
Georgia Southern	SC	2.08	1.72	45.00	44.84	-0.21	-0.18
Hampton	MEAC	0.30	0.32	34.78	37.18	-0.09	-0.08
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.29	0.28	23.81	33.67	-0.15	-0.09
Lipscomb	ASun	0.28	0.25	43.48	43.89	-0.04	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.23	0.25	45.00	44.18	-0.02	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.14	0.22	68.42	68.62	0.05	0.08
High Point	BSth	0.28	0.22	31.82	32.81	-0.10	-0.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.30	0.21	83.33	84.76	0.20	0.14
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.14	0.19	14.29	16.80	-0.10	-0.13
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.21	0.19	36.36	40.96	-0.06	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.31	0.19	19.05	19.39	-0.19	-0.12
Campbell	BSth	0.19	0.18	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.23	0.18	8.70	13.12	-0.19	-0.14
Belmont	ASun	0.26	0.18	70.83	73.74	0.11	0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.15	0.16	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.16	62.50	62.07	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.20	0.16	21.74	25.63	-0.11	-0.08
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.14	0.16	34.78	38.74	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.19	0.15	55.00	60.35	0.02	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.19	0.15	68.18	67.72	0.07	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.23	0.15	37.50	38.36	-0.06	-0.04
Navy	Pat	0.19	0.15	9.52	13.17	-0.15	-0.11
West Virginia	BE	0.14	0.15	66.67	65.98	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.15	40.91	39.60	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.13	5.26	7.29	-0.04	-0.11
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.13	34.78	35.19	-0.03	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.13	52.63	48.32	0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.17	0.13	22.73	24.64	-0.09	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.13	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.13	58.33	59.92	0.02	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.13	70.83	64.53	0.07	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.13	26.32	28.82	-0.02	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.10	0.13	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.15	0.13	42.11	49.86	-0.02	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.13	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.14	0.13	27.78	29.77	-0.06	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.12	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.12	80.77	80.77	0.05	0.08
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.12	30.00	34.18	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.14	0.12	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.14	0.12	66.67	69.71	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.12	73.91	75.03	0.04	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.12	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.12	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.12	79.17	78.05	0.08	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.11	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.11	69.57	70.16	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.11	59.09	57.27	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.11	63.64	56.68	0.02	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.10	9.09	12.82	-0.00	-0.08
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.10	27.27	35.05	-0.07	-0.03
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	77.27	77.37	0.05	0.05
Furman	SC	0.15	0.10	45.45	47.20	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.10	82.61	84.58	0.10	0.07
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.09	34.78	34.46	-0.04	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.09	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.09	8.33	10.90	-0.04	-0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	61.90	67.29	0.02	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.09	34.78	32.05	-0.04	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.14	0.09	69.57	71.58	0.05	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.09	80.00	76.67	0.08	0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	27.78	29.51	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.14	0.09	52.17	58.49	0.01	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.09	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.09	39.13	36.12	-0.03	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.09	69.57	65.88	0.05	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.09	47.83	48.88	-0.01	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.07	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.07	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.07	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.00	0.07	34.78	35.53	-0.00	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.00	0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.07	33.33	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.07	73.91	75.47	0.00	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.00	0.07	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.07	9.52	11.47	-0.04	-0.05
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.07	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.07	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.07	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.07	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.07	69.57	64.49	0.04	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.07	35.00	40.74	-0.03	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.07	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.06	34.78	37.27	-0.03	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.48	-0.02	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.00	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.06	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.06	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.06	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.06	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.06	8.70	12.14	-0.08	-0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.06	16.67	26.81	-0.06	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.06	0.00	4.04	-0.05	-0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.06	28.57	34.11	-0.04	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.06	69.57	65.37	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.06	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.06	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.06	86.96	83.30	0.07	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.06	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.09	0.06	77.27	77.70	0.05	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.06	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.08	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.06	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.49	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.06	40.91	42.03	-0.02	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.06	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.06	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.06	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.08	0.06	75.00	74.62	0.04	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.06	40.00	40.17	-0.02	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.04	0.06	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.06	80.00	78.08	0.05	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.06	96.00	93.53	0.04	0.05
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.00	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.03	54.17	49.41	0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.38	-0.00	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.02	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.03	62.50	60.78	0.00	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.00	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.00	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.03	75.00	76.02	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.50	0.00	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.30	-0.00	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.02	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.03	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.03	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	20.83	23.61	-0.03	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.04	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.47	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.02	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.02
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.14	0.01	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.03	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.04	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.02	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.00	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.04	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.03	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.04	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	14.31	-0.03	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00