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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Eastern Kentucky

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:174.6
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:151
Current SOS:97
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:152
Expected OOC SOS:99



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-742.00.01%
21-858.00.02%
20-972.40.18%
19-1082.50.72%
18-1196.52.53%
17-12111.55.03%
16-13127.29.70%
15-14145.014.60%
14-15164.318.21%
13-16184.017.51%
12-17205.014.16%
11-18224.29.38%
10-19242.74.88%
9-20262.82.22%
8-21278.40.64%
7-22293.60.17%
6-23308.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11IUPUI (194.4)SumH97-87W100%0.0
11-14UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAH69-78L0%0.0
11-17Auburn (96.0)SECA85-64L0%0.0
11-19Texas Tech (68.9)B12A90-71L0%0.0
11-22Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyN91-82W100%0.0
11-23Georgia St. (75.2)SBN65-82L0%0.0
11-30Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAH78-59W100%0.0
12-3Marshall (88.7)CUSAH0-046%-1.3
12-7Jacksonville (208.9)ASunA0-043%-2.1
12-10Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-036%-4.2
12-17Louisville (6.5)ACCA0-01%-26.5
12-19Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACA0-066%5.0
12-22Manhattan (234.2)MAACA0-052%0.7
12-31Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCA0-054%1.3
1-5SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCH0-074%7.8
1-7Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-068%5.5
1-12Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCH0-042%-2.4
1-14Belmont (122.5)OVCH0-044%-1.8
1-19Murray St. (139.5)OVCA0-025%-8.1
1-21Morehead St. (211.9)OVCA0-041%-2.8
1-26Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCA0-044%-1.9
1-28Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCA0-059%2.6
2-1Austin Peay (212.5)OVCH0-067%5.1
2-4Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCA0-044%-1.8
2-11Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH0-061%3.4
2-16Belmont (122.5)OVCA0-025%-8.0
2-18Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCA0-024%-8.6
2-23Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH0-064%4.3
2-25Tennessee Tech (304.6)OVCH0-077%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern KentuckyOVC28.9526.1937.9348.71-6.99-0.68
Jacksonville St.OVC0.514.1657.1447.410.07-0.22
Morehead St.OVC0.004.1620.0041.36-0.00-0.72
BelmontOVC0.514.1540.0061.05-0.100.92
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.1414.2928.39-0.00-1.79
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.1383.3370.610.001.70
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.512.3757.1441.130.07-0.42
Austin PeayOVC0.002.3740.0041.95-0.00-0.38
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.3475.0054.260.000.20
Murray St.OVC0.002.3442.8661.41-0.000.53
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.3450.0038.160.00-0.55
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.3450.0043.920.00-0.28
Western KentuckyCUSA7.141.9450.0035.310.00-0.57
MarshallCUSA0.001.8483.3359.780.000.36
IUPUISum7.141.7833.3349.49-2.38-0.02
AuburnSEC8.371.7880.0053.715.020.13
Texas TechB128.251.7883.3362.575.500.45
Ball St.MAC0.001.7550.0051.940.000.07
Georgia St.SB7.741.7550.0066.210.000.57
Idaho St.BSky7.651.7516.6730.87-5.10-0.67
JacksonvilleASun0.001.7257.1459.580.000.33
LouisvilleACC0.001.7285.7175.200.000.87
ManhattanMAAC0.001.7233.3337.87-0.00-0.42
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.720.0038.52-0.00-0.40
UNC WilmingtonCAA7.141.7280.0076.384.290.91
LipscombASun0.000.5314.2933.07-0.00-0.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.600.3385.7173.010.430.15
EvansvilleMVC0.600.2133.3340.39-0.20-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1950.0052.140.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1957.1448.860.00-0.00
PurdueB101.310.1871.4374.450.560.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0013.30-0.00-0.13
Alabama St.SWAC0.510.1814.2934.56-0.36-0.06
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1766.6765.810.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.160.0022.69-0.00-0.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1571.4343.020.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1514.2928.15-0.00-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.600.1533.3338.20-0.20-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.1550.0033.010.00-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1533.3341.52-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1585.7155.550.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.1480.0068.320.000.05
TCUB120.000.14100.0059.480.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.1457.1461.940.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1328.5730.29-0.00-0.05
Green BayHorz0.000.1333.3348.71-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.1383.3361.150.000.03
TroySB0.000.1333.3332.23-0.00-0.04
NJITASun1.220.1242.8650.32-0.170.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1266.6751.460.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1216.6731.91-0.00-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.1266.6770.930.000.05
HowardMEAC0.510.120.0038.26-0.51-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1220.0032.60-0.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1275.0064.960.000.04
North FloridaASun0.600.1214.2931.71-0.43-0.04
IndianaB100.000.1283.3375.060.000.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1233.3343.64-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1220.0034.39-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1266.6756.360.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1271.4346.010.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1250.0045.920.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.600.1142.8650.36-0.090.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1166.6751.090.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1033.3333.15-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.26-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0916.6730.27-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0933.3341.11-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0027.77-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.600.0983.3380.700.400.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0914.2937.52-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0987.5078.680.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.320.000.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0971.4350.570.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0950.0029.280.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.0933.3326.75-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0985.7168.390.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.510.0950.0066.170.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.510.090.0024.32-0.51-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0928.5739.44-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0023.26-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3346.81-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0940.0040.65-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.510.0950.0055.850.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0966.6769.810.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0942.8635.68-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0925.0034.47-0.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0019.51-0.00-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0916.6727.03-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.600.0916.6736.45-0.40-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.06
HofstraCAA0.000.0957.1440.550.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0940.0055.44-0.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0866.6756.020.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.510.0840.0030.80-0.10-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0885.7169.010.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0828.5728.46-0.00-0.04
BaylorB120.000.08100.0074.460.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0871.4349.770.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0883.3351.920.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0883.3380.550.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0650.0071.330.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0650.0035.230.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.0657.1442.660.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
MarquetteBE0.510.0671.4363.090.220.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.710.0671.4355.750.310.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.22-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0666.6775.370.000.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0657.1455.810.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0620.0054.94-0.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0675.0067.660.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC1.020.0650.0053.560.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0625.0024.66-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0633.3323.33-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.970.000.02
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0042.710.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0017.30-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
MichiganB100.510.0371.4366.530.220.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0033.58-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0371.4368.660.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0316.6743.29-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.510.0360.0043.970.10-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.510.0371.4358.670.220.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.0360.0058.950.100.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0033.54-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0385.7180.960.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0350.0051.260.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0350.0051.820.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.430.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0316.6718.96-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.510.030.0038.51-0.51-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.510.030.0037.92-0.51-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0039.35-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0053.050.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0371.4363.570.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
UNLVMWC0.510.0371.4349.590.22-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
WashingtonP120.510.0357.1452.630.070.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01