Eastern Kentucky

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	70.0
Current RPI:	70
Expected SOS:	163
Current SOS:	163
Current Record:	22-9
Expected Record:	22-9
Current Conf Record:	13-5
Expected Conf Record:	13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-2
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	76
Expected OOC SOS:	215

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
22-9	70.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Kentucky.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	85-71	W	100%
11-17	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	71-69	W	100%
11-18	Radford (316.0)	BSth	H	83-75	W	100%
11-24	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	68-44	W	100%
11-28	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	H	84-51	W	100%
12-1	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	72-70	W	100%
12-4	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	A	57-63	W	100%
12-8	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	52-63	W	100%
12-16	Illinois (40.0)	B10	A	66-53	L	0%
12-19	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	A	78-67	L	0%
12-21	High Point (249.0)	BSth	A	70-73	W	100%
12-30	West Virginia (146.0)	B12	A	74-67	L	0%
1-3	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	65-54	W	100%
1-5	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	78-72	W	100%
1-9	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	A	65-77	W	100%
1-12	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	59-52	W	100%
1-17	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	83-76	L	0%
1-19	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	A	62-73	W	100%
1-24	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	76-67	W	100%
1-26	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	74-85	L	0%
1-31	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	72-65	L	0%
2-2	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	72-81	W	100%
2-9	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	A	47-68	W	100%
2-14	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	80-69	W	100%
2-16	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	80-67	W	100%
2-20	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	91-53	W	100%
2-23	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	82-60	L	0%
2-28	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	54-69	W	100%
3-2	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	85-81	L	0%
3-7	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	N	84-69	W	100%
3-8	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	N	81-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Kentucky's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Eastern Kentucky's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Eastern Kentucky.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	26.23	26.23	75.19	75.19	13.22	13.22
Morehead St.	OVC	4.01	4.01	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Belmont	OVC	4.01	4.01	78.57	78.57	2.29	2.29
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.01	4.01	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Murray St.	OVC	3.92	3.92	66.67	66.67	1.31	1.31
Jacksonville St.	OVC	3.91	3.91	62.50	62.50	0.98	0.98
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	3.90	3.90	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
Tennessee Tech	OVC	3.89	3.89	40.00	40.00	-0.78	-0.78
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.36	2.36	22.22	22.22	-1.31	-1.31
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.34	2.34	36.67	36.67	-0.62	-0.62
Austin Peay	OVC	2.34	2.34	21.43	21.43	-1.34	-1.34
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.27	2.27	29.17	29.17	-0.95	-0.95
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.87	1.87	51.52	51.52	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	1.77	1.77	35.71	35.71	-0.51	-0.51
Chattanooga	SC	1.77	1.77	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.77	1.77	67.74	67.74	0.63	0.63
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.74	1.74	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.72	1.72	10.34	10.34	-1.37	-1.37
High Point	BSth	1.72	1.72	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Western Carolina	SC	1.72	1.72	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.71	1.71	70.37	70.37	0.70	0.70
Valparaiso	Horz	1.67	1.67	77.42	77.42	0.91	0.91
Towson	CAA	1.67	1.67	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
Illinois	B10	1.66	1.66	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
West Virginia	B12	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Lipscomb	ASun	0.33	0.33	37.93	37.93	-0.08	-0.08
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.21	0.21	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.21	0.21	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
NC Greensboro	SC	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Kansas	B12	0.18	0.18	85.29	85.29	0.13	0.13
Howard	MEAC	0.18	0.18	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.18	0.18	20.69	20.69	-0.11	-0.11
Wright St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.17	0.17	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Samford	SC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.15	7.14	7.14	-0.13	-0.13
Georgia Southern	SC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.14	0.14	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Campbell	BSth	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.14	0.14	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.13	0.13	21.43	21.43	-0.08	-0.08
College of Charleston	SC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
New Orleans	ind	0.10	0.10	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.04	0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00