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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:130
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17166.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA97-72L0%0.0
11-15UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthH90-81W100%0.0
11-21High Point (158.0)BSthA75-69L0%0.0
11-27College of Charleston (135.0)CAAA57-56L0%0.0
11-30South Carolina (65.0)SECA76-53L0%0.0
12-5Illinois (149.0)B10A80-68L0%0.0
12-12Davidson (64.0)A10A87-54L0%0.0
12-14Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyH97-80W100%0.0
12-20Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA60-52L0%0.0
12-23Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA79-73L0%0.0
1-2East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH66-82L0%0.0
1-9VMI (316.0)SCH73-52W100%0.0
1-11UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH83-77W100%0.0
1-14Chattanooga (50.0)SCA77-58L0%0.0
1-16Samford (252.0)SCA84-68L0%0.0
1-21The Citadel (322.0)SCH91-92L0%0.0
1-24Mercer (194.0)SCH86-80W100%0.0
1-28Furman (167.0)SCA62-60L0%0.0
1-30Wofford (199.0)SCA85-66L0%0.0
2-4UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA75-58L0%0.0
2-6VMI (316.0)SCA60-69W100%0.0
2-11Chattanooga (50.0)SCH67-61W100%0.0
2-13Samford (252.0)SCH76-71W100%0.0
2-15East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA83-77L0%0.0
2-18Mercer (194.0)SCA65-72W100%0.0
2-20The Citadel (322.0)SCA97-102W100%0.0
2-25Wofford (199.0)SCH53-48W100%0.0
2-27Furman (167.0)SCH73-62W100%0.0
3-5Wofford (199.0)SCN83-88W100%0.0
3-6Chattanooga (50.0)SCN73-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC26.5426.5446.4946.49-1.86-1.86
ChattanoogaSC6.086.0886.2186.214.404.40
WoffordSC5.945.9444.4444.44-0.66-0.66
East Tennessee St.SC4.574.5763.3363.331.221.22
SamfordSC4.474.4737.9337.93-1.08-1.08
FurmanSC4.474.4751.7251.720.150.15
MercerSC4.474.4758.6258.620.770.77
UNC GreensboroSC4.404.4037.0437.04-1.14-1.14
The CitadelSC4.404.4022.2222.22-2.45-2.45
VMISC4.374.3724.0024.00-2.27-2.27
UNC AshevilleBSth1.831.8366.6766.670.610.61
DavidsonA101.831.8360.0060.000.370.37
High PointBSth1.781.7862.9662.960.460.46
Morehead St.OVC1.771.7757.1457.140.250.25
College of CharlestonCAA1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
PittsburghACC1.751.7563.3363.330.470.47
IllinoisB101.741.7442.4242.42-0.26-0.26
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
CincinnatiAmer1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
South CarolinaSEC1.671.6773.3373.330.780.78
PresbyterianBSth0.370.3728.5728.57-0.16-0.16
CampbellBSth0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2257.6957.690.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.220.2282.3582.350.140.14
Gardner WebbBSth0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.200.2056.2556.250.030.03
LibertyBSth0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
RadfordBSth0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Georgia TechACC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.190.1960.7160.710.040.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1722.2222.22-0.09-0.09
Ohio St.B100.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
MissouriSEC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
LongwoodBSth0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
WinthropBSth0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
ElonCAA0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
IdahoBSky0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
TennesseeSEC0.130.1344.1244.12-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
Iowa St.B120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
VCUA100.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
TulsaAmer0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01