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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:222.4
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:266
Current SOS:178
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-1
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-997.50.08%
19-10114.10.36%
18-11131.21.41%
17-12148.13.96%
16-13168.88.25%
15-14188.214.14%
14-15208.618.21%
13-16229.919.37%
12-17249.915.37%
11-18269.010.08%
10-19286.25.44%
9-20299.12.34%
8-21312.40.71%
7-22320.80.24%
6-23330.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA66-56L0%0.0
11-17Alabama (75.6)SECA80-74L0%0.0
11-24Oakland (229.8)HorzA79-88W100%0.0
11-25Georgia St. (63.5)SBN85-70L0%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (338.6)WACN66-61W100%0.0
12-1Charleston Southern (203.9)BSthA72-66L0%0.0
12-3East Tennessee St. (127.1)SCA96-89L0%0.0
12-5Minnesota (50.6)B10A84-64L0%0.0
12-16Vanderbilt (87.7)SECA99-79L0%0.0
12-18Wright St. (128.3)HorzH0-051%0.4
12-21UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthA0-036%-4.3
1-3The Citadel (316.3)SCH0-082%10.7
1-5Furman (290.9)SCH0-082%10.7
1-8Chattanooga (207.2)SCA0-038%-3.6
1-10UNC Greensboro (281.9)SCH0-076%8.2
1-15East Tennessee St. (127.1)SCH0-053%1.0
1-17Wofford (59.2)SCA0-013%-13.5
1-22Mercer (249.1)SCH0-072%6.9
1-24Samford (323.6)SCA0-063%4.0
1-29VMI (270.6)SCA0-047%-0.8
1-31UNC Greensboro (281.9)SCA0-048%-0.5
2-5Samford (323.6)SCH0-086%12.7
2-7Chattanooga (207.2)SCH0-067%5.2
2-12Mercer (249.1)SCA0-044%-1.9
2-14Wofford (59.2)SCH0-034%-4.7
2-17Cleveland St. (151.0)HorzH0-049%-0.2
2-21VMI (270.6)SCH0-075%8.0
2-26Furman (290.9)SCA0-056%1.9
2-28The Citadel (316.3)SCA0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC28.0126.4434.2949.19-8.80-0.43
VMISC0.004.5033.3338.90-0.00-1.00
The CitadelSC0.004.4916.6730.47-0.00-1.75
WoffordSC0.404.4777.7876.140.222.34
East Tennessee St.SC5.564.4666.6763.331.851.19
FurmanSC0.004.4625.0029.12-0.00-1.86
SamfordSC0.004.4433.3331.79-0.00-1.62
MercerSC0.004.4437.5041.82-0.00-0.73
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4444.4451.45-0.000.13
UNC GreensboroSC0.404.4422.2237.49-0.22-1.11
OaklandHorz6.181.9033.3333.31-2.06-0.64
Wright St.Horz0.401.8855.5653.990.040.15
Charleston SouthernBSth5.561.8533.3348.33-1.85-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.001.8537.5048.81-0.00-0.04
VanderbiltSEC5.561.8471.4359.252.380.34
UNC AshevilleBSth0.401.8214.2944.77-0.28-0.19
AlabamaSEC5.561.8162.5054.131.390.15
Mississippi St.SEC5.561.8142.8637.23-0.79-0.46
MinnesotaB105.561.7975.0063.682.780.49
Georgia St.SB6.111.7857.1470.720.870.74
Chicago St.WAC6.181.780.0012.47-6.18-1.34
PresbyterianBSth0.000.280.008.71-0.00-0.23
Green BayHorz0.350.2775.0078.710.170.15
TennesseeSEC0.000.2750.0046.160.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.310.2662.5059.460.080.05
ValparaisoHorz0.400.2480.0069.840.240.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2445.4544.47-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2037.5050.07-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.2025.0035.05-0.00-0.06
High PointBSth0.000.1962.5056.250.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1920.0026.68-0.00-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1966.6770.610.000.08
CampbellBSth0.000.1925.0044.80-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.1844.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1818.1821.69-0.00-0.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1833.3334.56-0.00-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1836.3633.75-0.00-0.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1777.7865.350.000.05
WinthropBSth0.400.1628.5747.18-0.17-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1550.0053.700.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.310.1550.0049.770.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1542.8632.44-0.00-0.05
MississippiSEC0.400.1566.6752.510.130.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1562.5064.360.000.04
PurdueB100.350.1472.7363.690.160.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1350.0055.940.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1350.0044.640.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.1320.0021.41-0.00-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1355.5638.100.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.400.1350.0037.400.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1320.0034.02-0.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.280.1272.7373.120.130.06
DukeACC0.000.12100.0087.440.000.09
West VirginiaB120.000.1290.0066.760.000.04
MarylandB100.000.1290.9167.700.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.350.12100.0077.970.350.07
Wake ForestACC0.310.1250.0038.030.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.1222.2242.15-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.1290.9188.430.000.09
ArkansasSEC0.000.1177.7871.830.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.1144.4435.62-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.1160.0064.870.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0094.670.000.10
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1133.3345.26-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1144.4431.65-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0937.5038.59-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.670.0918.1846.19-0.43-0.01
VCUA100.000.0970.0071.520.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.400.0981.8264.060.250.03
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3338.24-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.350.09100.0066.280.350.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0975.0067.080.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0971.4363.540.120.02
IndianaB100.000.0980.0057.470.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0937.5046.46-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.560.0960.0059.520.110.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6772.380.000.04
LipscombASun0.350.0925.0042.50-0.17-0.01
Iowa St.B120.930.0988.8964.130.730.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0966.6752.270.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.350.0933.3345.72-0.12-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0910.0018.36-0.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.0977.7862.380.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0757.1461.280.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.810.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.400.0642.8655.67-0.060.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.690.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.78-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0644.4470.22-0.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.530.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.460.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.430.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.64-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5048.14-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.37-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0670.0071.470.000.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.33-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3340.60-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.590.0660.0054.270.120.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.620.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.580.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.590.0655.5648.830.07-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.470.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.44-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4439.99-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4444.99-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.13-0.00-0.02
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8638.32-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.04-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.090.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8963.530.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.54-0.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.310.06100.0085.210.310.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0622.2230.96-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.69-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0061.810.000.01
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.07-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0670.0066.610.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.830.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9154.060.000.00
RutgersB100.350.0660.0034.930.07-0.02
Saint LouisA100.350.0660.0034.010.07-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0037.67-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.310.0650.0032.540.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3340.58-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.760.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.400.030.0017.71-0.40-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.660.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.88-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.280.0372.7351.600.130.00
DePaulBE0.280.0366.6738.970.09-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0375.0070.220.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.95-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.35-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0344.4455.33-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.280.0390.9171.750.230.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0024.33-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.0360.0049.650.06-0.00
ArizonaP120.280.03100.0080.830.280.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3339.12-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.24-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0344.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.98-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0337.5031.79-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.280.0362.5055.120.070.00
BaylorB120.350.0390.0073.960.280.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.950.000.01
IUPUISum0.350.0320.0026.18-0.21-0.01
La SalleA100.350.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0048.84-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.690.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.0310.0018.04-0.28-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.350.0350.0056.370.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.310.0325.0032.64-0.15-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0344.4456.92-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.460.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.350.0388.8981.120.270.02
Oregon St.P120.350.0375.0049.720.17-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.89-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.310.0350.0048.630.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.310.030.0034.38-0.31-0.01
St. John'sBE0.310.0387.5064.520.230.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.350.030.0016.94-0.35-0.02
TowsonCAA0.310.0366.6751.310.100.00
TulaneAmer0.350.0387.5054.920.260.00
UCLAP120.000.0372.7357.410.000.00
UMBCAE0.310.0310.0021.05-0.25-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.350.0350.0053.110.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0387.5085.210.230.02
XavierBE0.310.0380.0071.020.190.01
YaleIvy0.000.0370.0064.820.000.01