live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:239.8
Current RPI:256
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:149
Current Record:6-15
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:14



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15158.20.04%
12-16175.61.06%
11-17195.66.20%
10-18215.419.29%
9-19235.832.47%
8-20255.927.24%
7-21274.311.56%
6-22291.22.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Cincinnati (47.3)AmerA97-72L0%0.0
11-15UNC Asheville (134.8)BSthH90-81W100%0.0
11-21High Point (197.5)BSthA75-69L0%0.0
11-27College of Charleston (95.1)CAAA57-56L0%0.0
11-30South Carolina (40.7)SECA76-53L0%0.0
12-5Illinois (157.5)B10A80-68L0%0.0
12-12Davidson (72.3)A10A87-54L0%0.0
12-14Eastern Washington (207.4)BSkyH97-80W100%0.0
12-20Morehead St. (162.5)OVCA60-52L0%0.0
12-23Pittsburgh (46.9)ACCA79-73L0%0.0
1-2East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCH66-82L0%0.0
1-9VMI (335.3)SCH73-52W100%0.0
1-11UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCH83-77W100%0.0
1-14Chattanooga (41.8)SCA77-58L0%0.0
1-16Samford (248.8)SCA84-68L0%0.0
1-21The Citadel (306.8)SCH91-92L0%0.0
1-24Mercer (132.1)SCH86-80W100%0.0
1-28Furman (157.5)SCA62-60L0%0.0
1-30Wofford (187.5)SCA85-66L0%0.0
2-4UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCA75-58L0%0.0
2-6VMI (335.3)SCA60-69W100%0.0
2-11Chattanooga (41.8)SCH0-021%-8.9
2-13Samford (248.8)SCH0-057%1.9
2-15East Tennessee St. (124.0)SCA0-023%-8.0
2-18Mercer (132.1)SCA0-017%-10.3
2-20The Citadel (306.8)SCA0-062%3.5
2-25Wofford (187.5)SCH0-048%-0.4
2-27Furman (157.5)SCH0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC26.3526.4529.3331.51-10.89-9.78
East Tennessee St.SC3.254.6557.1457.220.460.67
FurmanSC3.304.6252.1752.440.140.23
MercerSC3.134.6272.7371.081.421.95
UNC GreensboroSC5.414.6225.0029.60-2.70-1.88
The CitadelSC3.124.6228.5727.07-1.34-2.12
SamfordSC3.134.5939.1340.48-0.68-0.87
WoffordSC3.144.5940.9144.03-0.57-0.55
ChattanoogaSC3.064.5486.3686.422.223.31
VMISC5.344.5116.6718.18-3.56-2.87
DavidsonA102.651.9760.0056.510.530.26
UNC AshevilleBSth2.541.9468.1868.640.930.72
Morehead St.OVC2.551.9147.6250.55-0.120.02
PittsburghACC2.551.8871.4366.481.090.62
College of CharlestonCAA2.491.8861.9059.480.590.36
High PointBSth2.541.8852.6355.760.130.22
IllinoisB102.431.8543.4842.25-0.32-0.29
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.491.8555.0056.070.250.22
CincinnatiAmer2.381.7970.8370.590.990.74
South CarolinaSEC2.381.7986.3679.701.731.06
PresbyterianBSth0.390.3925.0026.87-0.19-0.18
CampbellBSth0.390.2728.5729.64-0.17-0.11
Gardner WebbBSth0.340.2345.4547.54-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.330.2364.0064.480.090.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2360.0060.100.040.05
RadfordBSth0.160.2050.0051.280.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.220.1923.8126.56-0.11-0.09
LibertyBSth0.220.1934.7836.51-0.07-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1924.0024.17-0.08-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1965.2264.370.050.06
Ohio St.B100.270.1960.0055.540.050.02
North CarolinaACC0.220.1983.3378.400.140.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1921.7423.40-0.09-0.10
Georgia TechACC0.160.1854.1751.980.010.01
ButlerBE0.220.1670.8368.990.090.06
DrexelCAA0.270.1613.6418.18-0.20-0.10
ElonCAA0.210.1652.1750.420.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1659.0955.220.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1634.7840.89-0.05-0.03
DaytonA100.160.1686.9682.150.120.10
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1640.0042.85-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.160.1550.0048.130.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.150.1533.3330.27-0.05-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.170.1352.0048.860.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.160.1322.7324.97-0.09-0.07
WinthropBSth0.110.1365.0063.440.030.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.220.1350.0049.050.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1352.0050.230.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1328.5733.35-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.110.1333.3333.70-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.110.1354.5554.970.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1376.1973.410.060.06
UCFAmer0.210.1250.0044.680.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1226.0929.18-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.100.1279.1776.070.060.06
ClemsonACC0.160.1258.3358.370.030.02
Iowa St.B120.150.1270.8368.000.060.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1273.9172.580.050.05
NebraskaB100.150.1252.0050.780.010.00
Penn St.B100.120.1050.0046.760.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.170.1071.4369.840.070.04
Green BayHorz0.110.0954.5556.010.010.01
DuquesneA100.170.0960.8756.360.040.01
Wake ForestACC0.110.0941.6739.91-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.110.0965.2264.230.030.03
LipscombASun0.100.0925.0029.28-0.05-0.04
George WashingtonA100.100.0975.0071.920.050.04
VCUA100.100.0973.9174.060.050.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0929.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.0943.4843.76-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0950.0053.000.000.01
AuburnSEC0.100.0939.1335.44-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0958.3359.960.020.02
IndianaB100.100.0979.1774.060.060.04
TulaneAmer0.100.0936.0034.92-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0941.6739.46-0.01-0.02
MemphisAmer0.150.0958.3359.360.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.150.0920.0019.76-0.09-0.05
TulsaAmer0.100.0966.6764.730.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0768.0066.660.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0768.1865.160.020.02
Saint LouisA100.110.0634.7832.42-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.050.0643.4837.81-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0631.8236.14-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.32-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0038.97-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.110.0670.8368.590.050.02
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.0629.1733.11-0.05-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0647.3749.90-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.63-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0610.0013.14-0.09-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0628.5727.00-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0631.5837.72-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0656.5255.730.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.1145.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.110.0647.6245.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0615.0015.32-0.08-0.04
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.73-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.110.0665.2259.750.030.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0622.7323.25-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0619.0525.90-0.07-0.03
Miami FLACC0.110.0682.6177.520.070.03
LSUSEC0.110.0662.5059.050.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0675.0075.330.050.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.220.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0625.0025.09-0.02-0.03
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.52-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.48-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.20-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0633.3334.19-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0666.6762.560.020.02
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.210.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.310.030.03
TroySB0.050.0623.8126.72-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.870.040.05
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.69-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.110.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.100.0670.8367.820.040.02
PurdueB100.100.0680.0077.960.060.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.0660.8755.970.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0670.8367.980.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0625.0027.23-0.02-0.03
RutgersB100.050.0621.7420.34-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0686.9682.900.040.04
TempleAmer0.100.0663.6459.710.030.01
WisconsinB100.050.0662.5056.960.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0360.8755.300.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0339.1341.03-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0333.3335.05-0.02-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.04-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.01-0.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0365.2262.830.020.01
DenverSum0.060.0354.1751.780.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0352.3850.750.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.840.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0345.0046.11-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0319.0520.33-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.68-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0357.8962.320.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0340.9143.75-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0358.3357.220.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0383.3381.320.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0354.5550.110.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.140.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0372.7370.400.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0365.0069.230.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.73-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0325.0030.04-0.03-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.18-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.0375.0071.800.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.900.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0365.2260.580.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.470.040.02
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.01-0.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.330.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0072.630.000.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.920.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.11-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.45-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0324.0025.67-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.05-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.22-0.04-0.02
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.520.030.02
MarylandB100.000.0387.5083.690.000.02
MichiganB100.050.0370.8366.720.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.580.030.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0363.6462.150.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.120.020.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0364.0062.090.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0372.0069.150.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.86-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.390.030.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.860.040.02
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01