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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:243.0
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:249
Current SOS:249
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:279
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19243.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9NC Asheville (217.0)BSthA71-61L0%0.0
11-15Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA79-63L0%0.0
11-17Western Kentucky (150.0)SBA92-81L0%0.0
11-20Austin Peay (319.0)OVCN71-72L0%0.0
11-21Howard (334.0)MEACN67-69W100%0.0
11-28Furman (343.0)SCA65-79W100%0.0
12-1Eastern Kentucky (70.0)OVCA72-70L0%0.0
12-4Illinois (40.0)B10A72-64L0%0.0
12-8Appalachian St. (265.0)SCH70-64W100%0.0
12-15Georgetown (11.0)BEA81-68L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee (59.0)SECA66-52L0%0.0
12-31Liberty (288.0)BSthH62-63L0%0.0
1-5The Citadel (330.0)SCA55-72W100%0.0
1-12NC Greensboro (327.0)SCH62-59W100%0.0
1-14Elon (174.0)SCH67-80L0%0.0
1-17Samford (291.0)SCA64-60L0%0.0
1-19Chattanooga (292.0)SCA81-90W100%0.0
1-24Davidson (61.0)SCH74-79L0%0.0
1-26Georgia Southern (266.0)SCH66-72L0%0.0
2-2Appalachian St. (265.0)SCA74-65L0%0.0
2-7Davidson (61.0)SCA73-59L0%0.0
2-9Georgia Southern (266.0)SCA62-71W100%0.0
2-11Wofford (250.0)SCH57-56W100%0.0
2-14NC Greensboro (327.0)SCA68-70W100%0.0
2-16Elon (174.0)SCA80-73L0%0.0
2-20College of Charleston (133.0)SCH65-67L0%0.0
2-23Coastal Carolina (259.0)BSthH80-70W100%0.0
2-28Chattanooga (292.0)SCH72-81L0%0.0
3-2Samford (291.0)SCH56-54W100%0.0
3-8The Citadel (330.0)SCN76-61W100%0.0
3-9College of Charleston (133.0)SCN78-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC26.3026.3041.3841.38-4.53-4.53
College of CharlestonSC4.174.1770.9770.971.751.75
DavidsonSC4.134.1376.6776.672.202.20
ChattanoogaSC4.114.1135.7135.71-1.17-1.17
Appalachian St.SC4.104.1044.4444.44-0.46-0.46
SamfordSC4.094.0931.0331.03-1.55-1.55
ElonSC4.084.0860.7160.710.870.87
NC GreensboroSC4.084.0825.9325.93-1.96-1.96
Georgia SouthernSC4.054.0537.9337.93-0.98-0.98
The CitadelSC4.014.0123.0823.08-2.16-2.16
FurmanSC2.572.5717.8617.86-1.65-1.65
WoffordSC2.522.5240.0040.00-0.50-0.50
LibertyBSth1.781.7835.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.771.7744.0044.00-0.21-0.21
Austin PeayOVC1.741.7417.8617.86-1.12-1.12
NC AshevilleBSth1.731.7342.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.721.7270.0070.000.690.69
TennesseeSEC1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Wichita St.MVC1.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
GeorgetownBE1.661.6680.0080.001.001.00
HowardMEAC1.661.6621.4321.43-0.95-0.95
Western KentuckySB1.641.6454.5554.550.150.15
IllinoisB101.641.6462.5062.500.410.41
Gardner WebbBSth0.380.3860.0060.000.080.08
High PointBSth0.350.3553.5753.570.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.310.3117.2417.24-0.20-0.20
Charleston SouthernBSth0.300.3057.1457.140.040.04
Virginia Military InstBSth0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.160.1619.3519.35-0.10-0.10
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1652.9452.940.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1610.0010.00-0.13-0.13
LouisvilleBE0.150.1585.2985.290.110.11
Georgia TechACC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
RutgersBE0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
CharlotteA100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
St. John'sBE0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1153.8553.850.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1157.6957.690.020.02
MissouriSEC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
MemphisCUSA0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
DukeACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
KentuckySEC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Florida InternationalSB0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
RichmondA100.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.090.0958.6258.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0828.0028.00-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ButlerA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ColgatePat0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SyracuseBE0.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.070.0793.7593.750.070.07
MinnesotaB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
CreightonMVC0.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.067.147.14-0.05-0.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
XavierA100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
North TexasSB0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
South FloridaBE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
OaklandSum0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00