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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:221.0
Current RPI:221
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:299
Current Record:16-15
Expected Record:16-15
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:230



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-15221.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UNC Asheville (201.0)BSthH74-67W100%0.0
11-13Oregon (28.0)P12A107-83L0%0.0
11-15Virginia Tech (246.0)ACCA79-61L0%0.0
11-16Liberty (311.0)BSthA63-68W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (213.0)MACA72-59L0%0.0
11-22Niagara (302.0)MAACN90-98W100%0.0
11-23USC Upstate (163.0)ASunN58-72L0%0.0
11-30Wright St. (173.0)HorzA85-77L0%0.0
12-4Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA76-68L0%0.0
12-16Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA66-55L0%0.0
12-18Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH92-84W100%0.0
12-21Georgia (74.0)SECA65-63L0%0.0
1-2UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH72-51W100%0.0
1-4Elon (162.0)SCH74-62W100%0.0
1-11Georgia Southern (303.0)SCA67-68W100%0.0
1-18Samford (313.0)SCH67-64W100%0.0
1-20Wofford (153.0)SCA71-60L0%0.0
1-23Davidson (126.0)SCH77-82L0%0.0
1-25The Citadel (345.0)SCA60-78W100%0.0
1-30Elon (162.0)SCA74-60L0%0.0
2-8Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH84-75W100%0.0
2-10Furman (339.0)SCH83-75W100%0.0
2-14Chattanooga (243.0)SCA83-73L0%0.0
2-16UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA77-82W100%0.0
2-20Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA61-74W100%0.0
2-22The Citadel (345.0)SCH70-52W100%0.0
2-27Chattanooga (243.0)SCH81-83L0%0.0
3-1Samford (313.0)SCA93-86L0%0.0
3-8Elon (162.0)SCN64-66W100%0.0
3-9Davidson (126.0)SCN97-99W100%0.0
3-10Wofford (153.0)SCN56-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC26.4026.4056.4956.493.433.43
ElonSC5.535.5357.6957.690.850.85
DavidsonSC4.114.1162.0762.070.990.99
SamfordSC4.104.1032.1432.14-1.47-1.47
WoffordSC4.084.0855.5655.560.450.45
Appalachian St.SC4.084.0820.8320.83-2.38-2.38
UNC GreensboroSC4.064.0640.7440.74-0.75-0.75
The CitadelSC4.044.0414.8114.81-2.84-2.84
ChattanoogaSC4.014.0148.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Georgia SouthernSC2.592.5940.0040.00-0.52-0.52
FurmanSC2.492.4926.9226.92-1.15-1.15
GeorgiaSEC1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
Coastal CarolinaBSth1.791.7958.6258.620.310.31
UNC AshevilleBSth1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth1.781.7834.6234.62-0.55-0.55
LibertyBSth1.731.7328.5728.57-0.74-0.74
Virginia TechACC1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
USC UpstateASun1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
NiagaraMAAC1.721.7221.8821.88-0.97-0.97
Cleveland St.Horz1.711.7162.0762.070.410.41
Wright St.Horz1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
Kent St.MAC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
OregonP121.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
PresbyterianBSth0.480.4813.3313.33-0.35-0.35
WinthropBSth0.450.4556.6756.670.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.360.3650.0050.000.000.00
VMIBSth0.360.3655.5655.560.040.04
High PointBSth0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.310.3160.0060.000.060.06
CampbellBSth0.280.2832.1432.14-0.10-0.10
CharlotteCUSA0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
DrexelCAA0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
StetsonASun0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
MaristMAAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Wake ForestACC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
ClemsonACC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
ColoradoP120.130.1367.6567.650.050.05
GeorgetownBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
VirginiaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.090.09
IonaMAAC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
DetroitHorz0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.060.06
UICHorz0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
DelawareCAA0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0251.8551.850.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00