live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:220.0
Current RPI:220
Expected SOS:249
Current SOS:249
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:237
Expected OOC SOS:236



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17220.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA66-56L0%0.0
11-17Alabama (85.0)SECA80-74L0%0.0
11-24Oakland (155.0)HorzA79-88W100%0.0
11-25Georgia St. (53.0)SBN85-70L0%0.0
11-26Chicago St. (333.0)WACN66-61W100%0.0
12-1Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA72-66L0%0.0
12-3East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA96-89L0%0.0
12-5Minnesota (98.0)B10A84-64L0%0.0
12-16Vanderbilt (104.0)SECA99-79L0%0.0
12-18Wright St. (264.0)HorzH56-69L0%0.0
12-21UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthA62-66W100%0.0
1-3The Citadel (327.0)SCH78-70W100%0.0
1-5Furman (293.0)SCH72-53W100%0.0
1-8Chattanooga (112.0)SCA66-60L0%0.0
1-10UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH82-72W100%0.0
1-15East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH76-83L0%0.0
1-17Wofford (47.0)SCA62-43L0%0.0
1-22Mercer (212.0)SCH60-52W100%0.0
1-24Samford (305.0)SCA78-72L0%0.0
1-29VMI (286.0)SCA70-85W100%0.0
1-31UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA73-78W100%0.0
2-5Samford (305.0)SCH72-76L0%0.0
2-7Chattanooga (112.0)SCH73-70W100%0.0
2-12Mercer (212.0)SCA54-58W100%0.0
2-14Wofford (47.0)SCH55-75L0%0.0
2-21VMI (286.0)SCH111-113L0%0.0
2-26Furman (293.0)SCA53-49L0%0.0
2-28The Citadel (327.0)SCA54-67W100%0.0
3-7East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCN67-61W100%0.0
3-8Wofford (47.0)SCN73-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC26.5726.5747.1847.18-1.50-1.50
WoffordSC6.116.1179.3179.313.583.58
East Tennessee St.SC5.975.9748.0048.00-0.24-0.24
FurmanSC4.624.6227.5927.59-2.07-2.07
UNC GreensboroSC4.484.4828.5728.57-1.92-1.92
MercerSC4.464.4655.1755.170.460.46
VMISC4.454.4530.7730.77-1.71-1.71
The CitadelSC4.454.4532.0032.00-1.60-1.60
SamfordSC4.404.4034.4834.48-1.37-1.37
ChattanoogaSC4.404.4067.8667.861.571.57
Charleston SouthernBSth1.801.8057.6957.690.280.28
UNC AshevilleBSth1.791.7944.4444.44-0.20-0.20
OaklandHorz1.781.7848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
Wright St.Horz1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
AlabamaSEC1.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
Mississippi St.SEC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Georgia St.SB1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
Chicago St.WAC1.721.7217.8617.86-1.11-1.11
MinnesotaB101.721.7251.6151.610.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.280.2821.4321.43-0.16-0.16
GeorgiaSEC0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
LibertyBSth0.200.2014.2914.29-0.15-0.15
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
Green BayHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
WinthropBSth0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
High PointBSth0.180.1867.8667.860.060.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
MississippiSEC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
West VirginiaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.130.1341.1841.18-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
NavyPat0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
WisconsinB100.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
ArkansasSEC0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
KentuckySEC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0975.8675.860.050.05
VCUA100.090.0974.2974.290.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02