Western Carolina

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	259.5
Current RPI:	254
Expected SOS:	257
Current SOS:	227
Current Record:	8-15
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	4-8
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.84%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-9
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	171
Expected OOC SOS:	159

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	206.7	0.45%
13-16	223.4	4.77%
12-17	240.1	19.77%
11-18	257.4	34.91%
10-19	272.1	28.66%
9-20	284.1	10.35%
8-21	292.8	1.08%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	South Carolina (172.6)	SEC	A	75-50	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Presbyterian (254.3)	BSth	A	73-80	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Iowa St. (45.5)	B12	A	92-60	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Northern Iowa (61.8)	MVC	A	59-39	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Northern Colorado (250.5)	BSky	N	57-74	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Florida A&M (324.7)	MEAC	N	46-62	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Samford (250.7)	SC	A	71-75	W	100%	0.0
12-3	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	H	73-69	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Purdue (64.4)	B10	A	65-60	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Kent St. (84.6)	MAC	H	56-58	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Bradley (247.1)	MVC	A	67-68	W	100%	0.0
12-28	NC Asheville (116.0)	BSth	H	86-67	W	100%	0.0
12-31	North Carolina St. (60.4)	ACC	A	82-55	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Chattanooga (284.4)	SC	A	78-62	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Wofford (177.8)	SC	H	67-57	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Davidson (62.8)	SC	A	88-67	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Furman (238.9)	SC	H	55-58	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	A	84-72	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Elon (212.2)	SC	H	63-71	L	0%	0.0
1-28	NC Greensboro (256.5)	SC	A	89-86	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Wofford (177.8)	SC	A	82-56	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Chattanooga (284.4)	SC	H	82-76	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Georgia Southern (218.5)	SC	H	65-68	L	0%	0.0
2-9	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	A	0-0		14%	-12.0
2-11	Furman (238.9)	SC	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-16	The Citadel (332.3)	SC	H	0-0		83%	10.4
2-18	Elon (212.2)	SC	A	0-0		34%	-4.5
2-23	Samford (250.7)	SC	H	0-0		62%	3.4
2-25	Appalachian St. (257.9)	SC	H	0-0		58%	2.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Carolina	SC	26.41	26.32	37.62	39.31	-6.54	-5.63
Appalachian St.	SC	2.91	4.32	30.00	34.47	-1.17	-1.34
Elon	SC	2.72	4.31	50.00	47.11	0.00	-0.25
NC Greensboro	SC	4.75	4.26	33.33	32.15	-1.58	-1.52
Chattanooga	SC	4.89	4.26	25.00	33.90	-2.45	-1.37
Wofford	SC	4.84	4.26	57.14	57.73	0.69	0.66
Samford	SC	2.77	4.26	35.00	36.50	-0.83	-1.15
Furman	SC	2.72	4.22	42.86	44.16	-0.39	-0.49
College of Charleston	SC	0.84	2.66	58.33	59.01	0.14	0.48
Davidson	SC	2.96	2.63	76.19	76.53	1.55	1.39
The Citadel	SC	0.73	2.59	9.52	11.26	-0.59	-2.01
Georgia Southern	SC	2.82	2.59	40.00	40.84	-0.56	-0.47
Presbyterian	BSth	2.37	1.88	42.86	45.27	-0.34	-0.18
South Carolina	SEC	2.37	1.88	38.10	37.52	-0.56	-0.47
Bradley	MVC	2.31	1.84	25.00	25.69	-1.16	-0.90
Northern Iowa	MVC	2.32	1.84	60.87	60.10	0.50	0.37
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.28	1.82	69.57	63.34	0.89	0.49
NC Asheville	BSth	2.27	1.81	71.43	70.32	0.97	0.74
Iowa St.	B12	2.27	1.79	69.57	65.38	0.89	0.55
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.26	1.78	26.32	28.65	-1.07	-0.76
Kent St.	MAC	2.17	1.75	70.00	67.95	0.87	0.63
Florida A&M	MEAC	2.17	1.72	23.81	25.55	-1.14	-0.84
Purdue	B10	2.17	1.72	60.87	59.47	0.47	0.33
Tennessee	SEC	0.24	0.27	45.45	44.56	-0.02	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.34	0.24	31.82	32.81	-0.12	-0.08
North Carolina	ACC	0.25	0.24	86.96	83.30	0.18	0.16
Campbell	BSth	0.29	0.22	57.69	58.27	0.05	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.15	0.21	55.00	60.35	0.01	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.24	0.21	66.67	63.50	0.08	0.06
Mercer	ASun	0.20	0.19	72.00	72.22	0.09	0.08
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.19	34.78	34.75	-0.03	-0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.20	0.19	20.83	23.61	-0.11	-0.10
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.15	0.19	68.42	68.62	0.05	0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.25	0.18	96.00	93.53	0.23	0.16
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.18	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.18	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.15	0.16	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.15	0.16	34.78	38.74	-0.05	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.19	0.15	82.61	79.93	0.13	0.09
Wake Forest	ACC	0.24	0.15	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.15	75.00	75.73	0.09	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.13	0.14	82.61	80.50	0.09	0.09
Drake	MVC	0.18	0.14	52.17	50.01	0.01	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.13	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.13	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.15	0.13	27.27	27.33	-0.07	-0.06
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.13	8.70	13.12	-0.08	-0.09
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.12	73.91	68.65	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.15	0.12	44.44	41.65	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.15	0.12	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.15	0.12	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.19	0.12	31.82	34.86	-0.07	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.12	81.82	77.18	0.06	0.07
Providence	BE	0.19	0.12	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.12	69.57	65.88	0.06	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.18	0.12	75.00	74.01	0.09	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.18	0.11	84.00	82.62	0.12	0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.11	47.83	47.08	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.11	62.50	62.07	0.02	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.11	56.52	54.28	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.13	0.11	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.11	34.78	32.10	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.11	54.17	49.41	0.02	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.11	69.57	66.33	0.05	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	66.67	69.71	0.03	0.04
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.09	9.52	13.17	-0.08	-0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.09	39.13	36.12	-0.02	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.10	0.09	76.19	75.98	0.05	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.09	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.09	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.09	60.87	53.44	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.09	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.09	14.29	16.80	-0.07	-0.06
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.09	68.18	67.98	0.04	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.14	0.09	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.14	0.09	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.14	0.09	42.11	45.89	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.09	0.09	80.00	78.08	0.06	0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.14	0.09	47.62	46.51	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.09	0.09	72.73	71.57	0.04	0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.09	34.78	35.19	-0.04	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.09	35.00	40.74	-0.04	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.09	78.26	78.42	0.08	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.09	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.14	0.08	62.50	62.20	0.03	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.07	40.91	44.29	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	31.82	32.98	-0.04	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.02	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.07	13.64	16.23	-0.08	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.07	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	30.00	33.22	-0.04	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.07	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.04
Denver	SB	0.05	0.07	70.83	72.24	0.02	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.06	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.06	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.06	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.06	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.06	40.91	41.68	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.06	66.67	60.84	0.03	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.06	40.00	40.17	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.06	36.36	40.96	-0.03	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	8.33	10.90	-0.08	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.06	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.06	54.55	57.71	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.06	76.19	70.71	0.05	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.06	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.00	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.06	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.09	0.06	4.00	5.27	-0.09	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	38.89	41.49	-0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	28.57	34.11	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.09	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.06	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.04	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.00	0.06	90.91	83.90	0.00	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.06	30.43	26.42	-0.04	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.02	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.06	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.06	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.06	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.00	0.03	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	69.57	69.00	0.02	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.03	52.38	52.88	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.00	-0.03	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	34.78	37.18	-0.00	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.00	0.03	21.74	25.63	-0.00	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.43	-0.00	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	23.81	33.67	-0.00	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	69.57	70.42	0.00	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.80	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.57	-0.02	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.41	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	20.83	23.73	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.18	0.00	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.00	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.00	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.00	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.03	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.00	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.00	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.68	0.01	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.00	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.08	-0.02	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.04	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.03	79.17	78.05	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.14	0.03	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	33.33	32.18	-0.02	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.94	0.02	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.00	0.03	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.04	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.04	0.03	33.33	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.04	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.00	0.04	0.02
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.00	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.01	0.01