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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:271.1
Current RPI:152
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:115
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:162
Expected OOC SOS:22



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16161.60.11%
12-17177.70.36%
11-18196.71.48%
10-19215.93.95%
9-20234.99.23%
8-21252.916.24%
7-22269.221.96%
6-23283.721.70%
5-24296.815.16%
4-25308.17.60%
3-26315.51.96%
2-27323.50.24%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Miami FL (46.9)ACCA92-43L0%0.0
11-16North Carolina Central (173.0)MEACH59-67L0%0.0
11-19Marshall (112.7)CUSAA98-63L0%0.0
11-21Ohio St. (39.3)B10A66-38L0%0.0
11-26Jackson St. (301.7)SWACA47-58W100%0.0
11-30Marquette (46.7)BEA90-44L0%0.0
12-3Appalachian St. (269.1)SBA53-58W100%0.0
12-7West Virginia (11.6)B12A0-00%-39.9
12-17UNC Asheville (97.3)BSthA0-08%-16.5
12-19High Point (239.4)BSthH0-042%-2.5
12-22College of Charleston (115.6)CAAH0-017%-11.7
12-31Chattanooga (86.7)SCH0-010%-15.2
1-2Samford (166.0)SCH0-024%-8.4
1-7UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCA0-011%-14.7
1-12VMI (322.5)SCA0-040%-3.2
1-14East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCA0-02%-24.4
1-19The Citadel (299.9)SCH0-059%2.6
1-21Mercer (184.8)SCH0-027%-7.5
1-25Furman (147.4)SCA0-08%-17.1
1-28Wofford (243.9)SCH0-032%-5.5
1-30Mercer (184.8)SCA0-013%-13.8
2-2Samford (166.0)SCA0-011%-14.6
2-4Chattanooga (86.7)SCA0-04%-21.5
2-11UNC Greensboro (171.8)SCH0-024%-8.4
2-15Furman (147.4)SCH0-018%-10.9
2-18Wofford (243.9)SCA0-016%-11.8
2-22The Citadel (299.9)SCA0-038%-3.7
2-25East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCH0-07%-18.1
2-27VMI (322.5)SCH0-060%3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC28.4726.4242.4225.06-4.31-13.18
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.4871.4354.260.000.38
FurmanSC0.004.4633.3353.96-0.000.35
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4571.4371.500.001.91
The CitadelSC0.004.4550.0028.700.00-1.90
WoffordSC0.454.450.0031.67-0.45-1.63
VMISC0.004.440.0014.12-0.00-3.19
East Tennessee St.SC0.004.4383.3378.680.002.54
MercerSC0.004.4342.8645.34-0.00-0.41
SamfordSC0.004.4362.5054.610.000.41
UNC AshevilleBSth0.001.9357.1466.390.000.63
MarshallCUSA8.611.8866.6753.302.870.12
Ohio St.B108.671.8585.7167.576.200.65
High PointBSth0.001.8542.8646.04-0.00-0.15
Jackson St.SWAC8.611.8116.6745.20-5.74-0.17
North Carolina CentralMEAC8.611.8150.0070.420.000.74
West VirginiaB120.001.7985.7183.110.001.18
College of CharlestonCAA0.001.7966.6760.800.000.39
Miami FLACC7.141.7971.4364.933.060.53
Appalachian St.SB7.141.7220.0030.95-4.29-0.66
MarquetteBE7.141.7271.4365.253.060.53
PresbyterianBSth0.000.3733.3327.06-0.00-0.17
CampbellBSth0.000.3142.8639.20-0.00-0.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.2825.0038.83-0.00-0.06
RadfordBSth0.000.2728.5734.28-0.00-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2433.3352.11-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.2433.3348.07-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.2185.7162.990.000.06
NavyPat0.450.2125.0037.38-0.22-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1820.0037.65-0.00-0.05
WinthropBSth0.000.1850.0071.070.000.08
TennesseeSEC0.600.1540.0041.12-0.12-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1583.3377.100.000.08
Iowa St.B120.450.1571.4368.070.190.05
VirginiaACC0.450.1587.5078.510.330.08
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1375.0066.370.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0020.75-0.00-0.07
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.490.000.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1242.8643.60-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.1271.4349.170.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.450.1250.0046.240.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1250.0046.410.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1225.0030.23-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.1220.0021.80-0.00-0.07
DavidsonA100.600.1271.4363.170.260.03
East CarolinaAmer0.510.1277.7849.900.28-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0027.12-0.00-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.1244.4441.30-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.1255.5647.890.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1275.0054.490.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.450.1257.1452.030.060.00
TCUB120.000.12100.0061.680.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1287.5065.250.000.04
UABCUSA0.000.1250.0059.920.000.02
MichiganB100.450.1275.0066.460.220.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.450.0916.6744.34-0.30-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0957.1458.940.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0914.2932.19-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0022.58-0.00-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.64-0.00-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.970.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0957.1436.010.00-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0987.5081.960.000.06
CharlotteCUSA0.600.0971.4351.460.260.00
DukeACC0.600.0988.8978.400.460.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.0912.5030.68-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0025.23-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.0950.0040.600.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.980.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0987.5082.360.000.06
FloridaSEC0.450.0987.5075.240.330.04
Morehead St.OVC0.510.0916.6738.58-0.34-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0971.4359.470.000.02
BaylorB120.000.09100.0076.590.000.05
PittsburghACC0.450.0975.0049.180.22-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.840.000.06
KansasB120.000.0987.5075.860.000.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.34-0.00-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.450.0975.0056.590.220.01
WisconsinB100.000.0877.7876.040.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.390.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0614.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.65-0.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5029.71-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.300.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0054.540.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.510.0657.1453.990.070.00
Southern MissCUSA0.510.0625.0020.78-0.26-0.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.450.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0666.6755.540.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0048.030.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.630.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0662.5043.220.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5076.230.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0650.0044.400.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0671.4368.050.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0637.5037.03-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
RutgersB100.450.0685.7145.370.32-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0662.5050.710.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0655.5658.610.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5068.020.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.890.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.350.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0671.4354.310.000.00
TexasB120.000.0657.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.600.0322.2226.33-0.33-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.820.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.930.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.61-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.510.0357.1442.530.07-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.19-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0019.67-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.510.0375.0055.500.260.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.510.0342.8650.12-0.070.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.510.0350.0050.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5641.690.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.450.030.0039.53-0.45-0.01
IUPUISum0.450.0337.5051.64-0.110.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
North FloridaASun0.450.0312.5034.79-0.33-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0077.380.000.02
OhioMAC0.510.0383.3371.480.340.01
PennIvy0.450.0333.3356.57-0.150.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.450.0366.6758.060.150.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.91-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.450.0316.6739.78-0.30-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.01
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0034.40-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1458.840.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01