Western Carolina

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	243.0
Current RPI:	243
Expected SOS:	249
Current SOS:	249
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-7
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	279
Expected OOC SOS:	144

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	243.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	NC Asheville (217.0)	BSth	A	71-61	L	0%
11-15	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	79-63	L	0%
11-17	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	92-81	L	0%
11-20	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	N	71-72	L	0%
11-21	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	N	67-69	W	100%
11-28	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	65-79	W	100%
12-1	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	72-70	L	0%
12-4	Illinois (40.0)	B10	A	72-64	L	0%
12-8	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	70-64	W	100%
12-15	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	81-68	L	0%
12-21	Tennessee (59.0)	SEC	A	66-52	L	0%
12-31	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	H	62-63	L	0%
1-5	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	55-72	W	100%
1-12	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	H	62-59	W	100%
1-14	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	67-80	L	0%
1-17	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	64-60	L	0%
1-19	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	81-90	W	100%
1-24	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	74-79	L	0%
1-26	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	H	66-72	L	0%
2-2	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	74-65	L	0%
2-7	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	73-59	L	0%
2-9	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	62-71	W	100%
2-11	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	57-56	W	100%
2-14	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	68-70	W	100%
2-16	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	80-73	L	0%
2-20	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	65-67	L	0%
2-23	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	80-70	W	100%
2-28	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	72-81	L	0%
3-2	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	56-54	W	100%
3-8	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	N	76-61	W	100%
3-9	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	N	78-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Western Carolina	SC	26.30	26.30	41.38	41.38	-4.53	-4.53
College of Charleston	SC	4.17	4.17	70.97	70.97	1.75	1.75
Davidson	SC	4.13	4.13	76.67	76.67	2.20	2.20
Chattanooga	SC	4.11	4.11	35.71	35.71	-1.17	-1.17
Appalachian St.	SC	4.10	4.10	44.44	44.44	-0.46	-0.46
Samford	SC	4.09	4.09	31.03	31.03	-1.55	-1.55
Elon	SC	4.08	4.08	60.71	60.71	0.87	0.87
NC Greensboro	SC	4.08	4.08	25.93	25.93	-1.96	-1.96
Georgia Southern	SC	4.05	4.05	37.93	37.93	-0.98	-0.98
The Citadel	SC	4.01	4.01	23.08	23.08	-2.16	-2.16
Furman	SC	2.57	2.57	17.86	17.86	-1.65	-1.65
Wofford	SC	2.52	2.52	40.00	40.00	-0.50	-0.50
Liberty	BSth	1.78	1.78	35.48	35.48	-0.52	-0.52
Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.77	1.77	44.00	44.00	-0.21	-0.21
Austin Peay	OVC	1.74	1.74	17.86	17.86	-1.12	-1.12
NC Asheville	BSth	1.73	1.73	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
Tennessee	SEC	1.69	1.69	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Wichita St.	MVC	1.67	1.67	75.76	75.76	0.86	0.86
Georgetown	BE	1.66	1.66	80.00	80.00	1.00	1.00
Howard	MEAC	1.66	1.66	21.43	21.43	-0.95	-0.95
Western Kentucky	SB	1.64	1.64	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
Illinois	B10	1.64	1.64	62.50	62.50	0.41	0.41
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.38	0.38	60.00	60.00	0.08	0.08
High Point	BSth	0.35	0.35	53.57	53.57	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.31	0.31	17.24	17.24	-0.20	-0.20
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.30	0.30	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Radford	BSth	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.16	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.16	0.16	10.00	10.00	-0.13	-0.13
Louisville	BE	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.13	0.13	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	14.81	14.81	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00