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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Western Carolina

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:271.0
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:147
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:42



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23271.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Western Carolina.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Miami FL (41.0)ACCA92-43L0%0.0
11-16North Carolina Central (199.0)MEACH59-67L0%0.0
11-19Marshall (112.0)CUSAA98-63L0%0.0
11-21Ohio St. (90.0)B10A66-38L0%0.0
11-26Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA47-58W100%0.0
11-30Marquette (60.0)BEA90-44L0%0.0
12-3Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA53-58W100%0.0
12-7West Virginia (24.0)B12N90-37L0%0.0
12-17UNC Asheville (73.0)BSthA59-57L0%0.0
12-19High Point (236.0)BSthH70-65W100%0.0
12-22College of Charleston (64.0)CAAH59-77L0%0.0
12-31Chattanooga (139.0)SCH48-64L0%0.0
1-2Samford (170.0)SCH65-70L0%0.0
1-7UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA76-57L0%0.0
1-12VMI (329.0)SCA79-78L0%0.0
1-14East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCA75-52L0%0.0
1-19The Citadel (282.0)SCH100-95W100%0.0
1-21Mercer (192.0)SCH50-70L0%0.0
1-25Furman (96.0)SCA85-37L0%0.0
1-28Wofford (190.0)SCH68-62W100%0.0
1-30Mercer (192.0)SCA62-47L0%0.0
2-2Samford (170.0)SCA82-63L0%0.0
2-4Chattanooga (139.0)SCA77-65L0%0.0
2-11UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH68-76L0%0.0
2-15Furman (96.0)SCH62-74L0%0.0
2-18Wofford (190.0)SCA84-56L0%0.0
2-22The Citadel (282.0)SCA80-84W100%0.0
2-25East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH52-68L0%0.0
2-27VMI (329.0)SCH81-68W100%0.0
3-3The Citadel (282.0)SCN72-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Western Carolina's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Western Carolina's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Western Carolina.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Western CarolinaSC26.4326.4323.9123.91-13.79-13.79
The CitadelSC5.965.9629.6329.63-2.43-2.43
UNC GreensboroSC4.524.5268.9768.971.721.72
SamfordSC4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC4.444.4476.6776.672.372.37
WoffordSC4.414.4142.8642.86-0.63-0.63
FurmanSC4.354.3560.7160.710.930.93
ChattanoogaSC4.354.3555.5655.560.480.48
VMISC4.344.3411.5411.54-3.34-3.34
MercerSC4.324.3239.2939.29-0.93-0.93
UNC AshevilleBSth1.861.8668.9768.970.710.71
MarshallCUSA1.811.8154.5554.550.160.16
High PointBSth1.781.7844.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Ohio St.B101.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA1.751.7571.8871.880.770.77
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.751.7572.4172.410.780.78
Jackson St.SWAC1.741.7442.8642.86-0.25-0.25
West VirginiaB121.731.7375.7675.760.890.89
Miami FLACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Appalachian St.SB1.671.6725.9325.93-0.80-0.80
MarquetteBE1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
PresbyterianBSth0.370.3710.7110.71-0.29-0.29
CampbellBSth0.340.3445.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.260.2653.3353.330.020.02
RadfordBSth0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaSB0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.220.2268.7568.750.080.08
LibertyBSth0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
NavyPat0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.08-0.08
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
ClemsonACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DavidsonA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
UABCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TexasB120.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01