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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:146.9
Current RPI:267
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:272
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:283



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-151.00.01%
25-241.00.02%
24-353.80.21%
23-462.31.08%
22-577.83.33%
21-691.67.24%
20-7107.612.00%
19-8126.016.80%
18-9144.717.71%
17-10164.116.45%
16-11183.612.79%
15-12203.67.08%
14-13223.63.36%
13-14242.51.34%
12-15259.60.37%
11-16278.70.19%
10-17298.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Middle Tennessee (60.8)CUSAH67-72L0%0.0
11-18Wright St. (240.1)HorzA61-80W100%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (102.2)MVCH0-057%2.0
12-2Florida A&M (335.5)MEACH0-098%24.6
12-9Illinois St. (95.4)MVCA0-036%-4.5
12-12Saint Louis (146.5)A10A0-040%-2.9
12-16Marist (316.7)MAACH0-091%16.1
12-19Auburn (91.7)SECH0-043%-2.2
12-22Detroit (277.7)HorzA0-071%6.8
12-28Eastern Illinois (246.1)OVCH0-080%10.2
12-30SIU Edwardsville (287.7)OVCH0-090%15.4
1-4Southeast Missouri St. (266.3)OVCH0-085%12.4
1-6Tennessee Martin (212.3)OVCH0-075%8.1
1-11Jacksonville St. (131.8)OVCA0-040%-3.0
1-13Tennessee Tech (233.3)OVCA0-065%4.8
1-18Belmont (80.1)OVCA0-033%-5.4
1-20Tennessee St. (185.2)OVCA0-058%2.4
1-25Morehead St. (235.3)OVCH0-084%11.9
1-27Eastern Kentucky (183.2)OVCH0-075%8.0
2-1Southeast Missouri St. (266.3)OVCA0-070%6.4
2-3Tennessee Martin (212.3)OVCA0-057%2.1
2-8Austin Peay (290.1)OVCH0-089%14.5
2-10SIU Edwardsville (287.7)OVCA0-078%9.4
2-15Jacksonville St. (131.8)OVCH0-060%3.0
2-17Tennessee Tech (233.3)OVCH0-081%10.8
2-22Eastern Illinois (246.1)OVCA0-064%4.2
2-24Austin Peay (290.1)OVCA0-076%8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC33.3326.3450.0066.620.008.75
Austin PeayOVC0.004.620.0030.820.00-1.77
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.620.0037.570.00-1.15
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.5933.3331.030.00-1.74
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.5625.0051.270.000.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.5533.3342.050.00-0.72
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.5050.0069.630.001.77
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.4950.0040.650.00-0.84
BelmontOVC4.172.8175.0071.712.081.22
Tennessee St.OVC4.172.800.0046.57-4.17-0.19
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.7750.0053.380.000.19
Morehead St.OVC0.002.7733.3337.400.00-0.70
Southern IllinoisMVC0.002.08100.0059.790.000.41
Saint LouisA100.001.9866.6753.170.000.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA25.001.9550.0067.100.000.67
DetroitHorz0.001.950.0029.320.00-0.81
Wright St.Horz25.001.920.0042.69-25.00-0.28
Illinois St.MVC0.001.9133.3351.540.000.06
AuburnSEC0.001.8966.6750.440.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.850.0018.940.00-1.15
MaristMAAC0.001.850.0024.400.00-0.95
IUPUIHorz0.000.300.0032.200.00-0.11
BradleyMVC0.000.2675.0048.770.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.26100.0051.900.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.260.0044.830.00-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.230.0045.040.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.230.0049.250.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.20100.0038.710.00-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.2066.6749.100.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.20100.0070.960.000.08
LipscombASun0.000.2033.3349.220.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.190.0038.990.00-0.04
ValparaisoMVC0.000.19100.0059.760.000.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.19100.0051.080.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1650.0048.410.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.16100.0053.790.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1666.6749.990.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.16100.0060.010.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.170.16100.0057.274.170.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1666.6763.230.000.04
DaytonA100.000.1666.6762.150.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1633.3343.810.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.13100.0063.590.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.000.1333.3345.780.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.130.0048.610.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1333.3333.580.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.13100.0059.240.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1366.6765.630.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.130.0026.150.00-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.130.0027.250.00-0.06
DrakeMVC0.000.1350.0035.740.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1366.6763.220.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1366.6742.260.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.130.0030.280.00-0.05
HowardMEAC0.000.120.0046.080.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1033.3346.330.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1066.6773.200.000.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1066.6754.900.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.100.0031.380.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.10100.0078.750.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1075.0061.940.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0026.180.00-0.05
PurdueB100.000.10100.0085.360.000.07
StetsonASun0.000.1033.3333.620.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC4.170.10100.0039.924.17-0.02
TCUB120.000.10100.0061.150.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.1066.6756.330.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1066.6748.280.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0975.0058.930.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0025.140.00-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0044.630.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0047.670.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.070.0035.610.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.07100.0055.280.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0050.870.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0766.6740.070.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0750.0051.840.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0725.0032.490.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0766.6755.210.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0733.3348.640.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0750.0062.630.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.070.0037.060.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.070.0034.600.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0733.3336.410.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0022.610.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.070.0040.830.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0059.440.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0733.3341.220.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0062.930.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.070.0035.760.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0750.0050.570.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0059.540.000.01
TroySB0.000.0733.3346.410.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0074.140.000.03
ButlerBE0.000.0775.0052.360.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0029.620.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.06100.0064.120.000.02
TexasB120.000.06100.0063.830.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0078.910.000.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3347.970.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.060.0039.010.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.060.0057.520.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.03
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0675.0051.210.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.060.0055.380.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0633.3336.170.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0350.0050.310.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
KansasB120.000.03100.0082.910.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0366.6751.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0366.6759.740.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0066.490.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0333.3357.840.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0033.850.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.03100.0065.580.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6757.890.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.030.0031.910.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0350.0073.230.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0021.010.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.040.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.03100.0069.350.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01