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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:158
Current SOS:158
Current Record:27-1
Expected Record:27-1
Current Conf Record:17-1
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-0
Current OOC Record:10-0
Expected OOC Record:10-0
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:34


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-122.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Morgan St. (286.0)MEACA69-80W100%0.0
11-20UAB (112.0)CUSAA55-62W100%0.0
11-25San Francisco (136.0)WCCN67-70W100%0.0
11-26Southern Mississippi (20.0)CUSAN90-81W100%0.0
12-1Western Kentucky (189.0)SBA59-70W100%0.0
12-4Dayton (81.0)A10H75-58W100%0.0
12-11Memphis (16.0)CUSAA72-76W100%0.0
12-15Lipscomb (225.0)ASunH89-65W100%0.0
12-17Arkansas St. (222.0)SBH66-53W100%0.0
12-21Tennessee Martin (326.0)OVCH78-54W100%0.0
12-30Eastern Illinois (285.0)OVCA40-73W100%0.0
1-4Eastern Kentucky (226.0)OVCH76-67W100%0.0
1-7Austin Peay (193.0)OVCA75-87W100%0.0
1-12Jacksonville St. (216.0)OVCH66-55W100%0.0
1-14Tennessee Tech (138.0)OVCH82-74W100%0.0
1-18Morehead St. (166.0)OVCA60-66W100%0.0
1-21SIU Edwardsville (300.0)OVCA65-82W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Illinois (285.0)OVCH73-58W100%0.0
2-2Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)OVCH81-73W100%0.0
2-4Tennessee Martin (326.0)OVCA58-65W100%0.0
2-9Tennessee St. (107.0)OVCH68-72L0%0.0
2-11Austin Peay (193.0)OVCH82-63W100%0.0
2-15Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)OVCA66-75W100%0.0
2-18St. Mary's (28.0)WCCH65-51W100%0.0
2-23Tennessee St. (107.0)OVCA62-80W100%0.0
2-25Tennessee Tech (138.0)OVCA64-69W100%0.0
3-2Tennessee Tech (138.0)OVCN78-58W100%0.0
3-3Tennessee St. (107.0)OVCN52-54W100%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.4426.4495.1495.1423.8723.87
Tennessee St.OVC6.176.1762.9662.961.601.60
Tennessee TechOVC6.126.1262.9662.961.591.59
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.464.4648.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Tennessee MartinOVC4.454.457.417.41-3.79-3.79
Austin PeayOVC4.454.4537.9337.93-1.07-1.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.274.2740.0040.00-0.85-0.85
Jacksonville St.OVC2.762.7644.8344.83-0.29-0.29
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.742.7448.2848.28-0.09-0.09
Morehead St.OVC2.732.7351.7251.720.090.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.642.6433.3333.33-0.88-0.88
LipscombASun2.062.0641.3841.38-0.35-0.35
Arkansas St.SB1.991.9940.6240.62-0.37-0.37
MemphisCUSA1.991.9978.7978.791.141.14
UABCUSA1.961.9650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC1.911.9160.0060.000.380.38
Morgan St.MEAC1.901.9032.1432.14-0.68-0.68
Western KentuckySB1.901.9046.8846.88-0.12-0.12
Southern MississippiCUSA1.901.9076.6776.671.011.01
St. Mary'sWCC1.871.8786.2186.211.361.36
DaytonA101.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
Middle TennesseeSB0.400.4080.0080.000.240.24
BelmontASun0.290.2978.7978.790.170.17
MarshallCUSA0.250.2560.6160.610.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.240.246.676.67-0.21-0.21
Central FloridaCUSA0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.220.2223.0823.08-0.12-0.12
East CarolinaCUSA0.200.2040.7440.74-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.180.1848.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
LamarSlnd0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
St. LouisA100.170.1777.4277.420.090.09
DenverSB0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1534.6234.62-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
South Carolina UpstateASun0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
PortlandWCC0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
Southern MethodistCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleBE0.140.1474.2974.290.070.07
XavierA100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
North TexasSB0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
MaineAE0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
OhioMAC0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1219.2319.23-0.07-0.07
Brigham YoungWCC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0957.6957.690.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
HoustonCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seattleind0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistGWC0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.070.0770.0070.000.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MissouriB120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
CharlotteA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0467.8667.860.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.040.0410.7110.71-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.456.45-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiBE0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Longwoodind0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
PacificBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TempleA100.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01