live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:169.0
Current RPI:169
Expected SOS:174
Current SOS:174
Current Record:15-14
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:148
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14169.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH76-65W100%0.0
11-20Georgia (62.0)SECA63-52L0%0.0
11-23Milwaukee (173.0)HorzN63-66W100%0.0
11-24Pepperdine (129.0)WCCN55-59W100%0.0
11-25Weber St. (108.0)BSkyN75-59L0%0.0
11-28Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH63-61W100%0.0
12-2Houston (87.0)AmerA93-78L0%0.0
12-5Evansville (93.0)MVCH81-85L0%0.0
12-13Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA63-61L0%0.0
12-18Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH73-88L0%0.0
12-22Wright St. (146.0)HorzA65-49L0%0.0
1-2Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH62-57W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH65-71L0%0.0
1-9Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH69-54W100%0.0
1-14Belmont (98.0)OVCA81-73L0%0.0
1-16Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA73-71L0%0.0
1-21Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH68-58W100%0.0
1-23SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH70-54W100%0.0
1-27Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA71-75W100%0.0
1-30Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA63-59L0%0.0
2-4Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA72-78W100%0.0
2-6Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH73-76L0%0.0
2-11SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA64-70W100%0.0
2-13Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH83-56W100%0.0
2-20Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA60-76W100%0.0
2-25Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA85-74L0%0.0
2-27Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH79-55W100%0.0
3-2Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCN78-62W100%0.0
3-3Morehead St. (127.0)OVCN75-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.3226.3251.9451.941.021.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC5.885.8840.0040.00-1.18-1.18
Austin PeayOVC4.354.3548.3948.39-0.14-0.14
Tennessee MartinOVC4.314.3155.1755.170.450.45
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.264.2612.0012.00-3.24-3.24
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.244.2423.0823.08-2.28-2.28
Morehead St.OVC4.154.1559.2659.260.770.77
BelmontOVC2.512.5162.0762.070.610.61
Tennessee St.OVC2.512.5162.9662.960.650.65
Tennessee TechOVC2.462.4659.2659.260.450.45
Jacksonville St.OVC2.442.4421.4321.43-1.39-1.39
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.412.4148.2848.28-0.08-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC1.961.9667.7467.740.690.69
EvansvilleMVC1.961.9671.8871.880.860.86
Illinois St.MVC1.921.9253.3353.330.130.13
Alabama A&MSWAC1.841.8437.0437.04-0.48-0.48
MilwaukeeHorz1.841.8460.0060.000.370.37
HoustonAmer1.821.8270.0070.000.730.73
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.781.7873.3373.330.830.83
Wright St.Horz1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
GeorgiaSEC1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
PepperdineWCC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
Weber St.BSky1.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
Green BayHorz0.380.3863.6463.640.100.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.350.3525.0025.00-0.18-0.18
Indiana St.MVC0.310.3145.1645.16-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.260.2651.5251.520.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
DrakeMVC0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
Northern IowaMVC0.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
IndianaB100.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
LipscombASun0.200.2032.2632.26-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1829.1729.17-0.08-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
IPFWSum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1610.7110.71-0.13-0.13
BradleyMVC0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1518.5218.52-0.09-0.09
Portland St.BSky0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
DetroitHorz0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
PortlandWCC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1076.6776.670.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
MemphisAmer0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0984.3884.380.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.040.04
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02