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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:133.0
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:51
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:157



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-228.00.01%
25-349.60.16%
24-461.40.87%
23-573.33.57%
22-687.47.68%
21-7102.514.16%
20-8117.717.98%
19-9133.418.65%
18-10150.415.44%
17-11168.211.44%
16-12187.75.96%
15-13205.12.57%
14-14230.31.06%
13-15246.90.35%
12-16265.20.08%
11-17281.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Houston (134.2)AmerH74-77L0%0.0
11-18Middle Tennessee (172.3)CUSAA49-68W100%0.0
11-24Xavier (11.8)BEA89-62L0%0.0
11-28Portland (157.8)WCCN0-056%1.9
11-29Valparaiso (174.1)HorzN0-061%3.3
11-30Drake (254.6)MVCN0-080%10.0
12-6Western Kentucky (195.0)CUSAH0-077%8.8
12-13Evansville (99.7)MVCA0-036%-4.4
12-17Alcorn St. (314.8)SWACH0-094%19.0
12-20Illinois St. (66.2)MVCH0-050%-0.1
12-22Southern Illinois (197.4)MVCA0-055%1.5
12-30Alabama A&M (330.4)SWACH0-095%19.8
1-3Morehead St. (164.2)OVCA0-048%-0.6
1-8Tennessee Tech (248.9)OVCA0-067%5.2
1-11Jacksonville St. (285.6)OVCA0-079%9.7
1-15Belmont (83.9)OVCH0-056%1.8
1-17Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCH0-093%17.5
1-22Eastern Illinois (281.3)OVCA0-071%6.5
1-24SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCA0-077%8.8
1-29Eastern Kentucky (143.5)OVCH0-071%6.5
1-31Tennessee Martin (276.9)OVCH0-090%15.2
2-5Southeast Missouri St. (255.2)OVCH0-083%11.5
2-7Austin Peay (300.8)OVCA0-074%7.8
2-12SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCH0-091%15.9
2-14Southeast Missouri St. (255.2)OVCA0-064%4.3
2-21Austin Peay (300.8)OVCH0-089%15.0
2-26Eastern Illinois (281.3)OVCH0-087%13.7
2-28Tennessee Martin (276.9)OVCA0-075%8.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC32.6426.2541.1868.73-5.769.83
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.3725.0046.85-0.00-0.28
Austin PeayOVC0.004.370.0033.50-0.00-1.44
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.004.360.0034.34-0.00-1.36
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.3466.6743.450.00-0.57
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.300.0035.97-0.00-1.21
BelmontOVC0.002.5475.0072.950.001.16
Tennessee St.OVC0.002.530.0025.80-0.00-1.23
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.4825.0031.75-0.00-0.90
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.47100.0062.040.000.59
Morehead St.OVC0.002.4420.0053.48-0.000.17
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.4466.6745.090.00-0.24
Southern IllinoisMVC0.002.2440.0047.17-0.00-0.13
Illinois St.MVC0.002.0450.0066.000.000.65
DrakeMVC0.002.0325.0027.24-0.00-0.93
EvansvilleMVC0.002.0066.6762.850.000.51
Alabama A&MSWAC0.001.950.0033.83-0.00-0.63
PortlandWCC0.001.92100.0051.180.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.9125.0041.38-0.00-0.33
ValparaisoHorz0.001.8875.0055.900.000.22
Middle TennesseeCUSA16.671.88100.0051.3116.670.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.001.850.0034.03-0.00-0.59
HoustonAmer16.671.7950.0058.940.000.32
XavierBE16.671.79100.0078.6716.671.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.3875.0044.920.00-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.3850.0051.850.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.260.0042.35-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.2550.0030.030.00-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2550.0041.110.00-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.25100.0073.990.000.12
Wichita St.MVC0.000.25100.0083.950.000.17
CincinnatiAmer0.000.22100.0059.140.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.200.0066.91-0.000.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.2016.6731.76-0.00-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1720.0043.52-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.170.0017.79-0.00-0.11
SouthernSWAC2.780.170.0035.37-2.78-0.05
MississippiSEC0.000.1675.0052.730.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.16100.0062.250.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1650.0037.650.00-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1675.0050.700.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1620.0031.41-0.00-0.06
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0058.780.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1666.6756.780.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.160.0038.35-0.00-0.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1666.6769.740.000.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1666.6749.780.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.1633.3344.17-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.14100.0042.270.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1425.0037.50-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0020.75-0.00-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.130.0040.78-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0038.95-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.1366.6761.780.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0019.97-0.00-0.08
CreightonBE0.000.13100.0060.560.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1333.3326.91-0.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.130.0028.11-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1340.0036.72-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1366.6757.980.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1340.0031.23-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.1350.0043.100.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1380.0074.570.000.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1280.0070.940.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0036.220.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.10100.0048.940.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.1075.0047.410.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1033.3346.41-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.100.0042.64-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0023.12-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1033.3340.07-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0022.61-0.00-0.05
BYUWCC0.000.1066.6769.270.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1020.0045.09-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1066.6752.600.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.10100.0070.870.000.04
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0068.250.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0920.0029.38-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0940.0038.29-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0933.3330.02-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0966.6750.750.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0966.6738.430.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0950.0067.350.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.09100.0065.620.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0031.79-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0053.790.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0064.97-0.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.07100.0044.550.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0081.020.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0034.32-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0720.0030.80-0.00-0.03
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0038.78-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.710.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.71-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0714.2929.93-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0775.0053.250.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0740.0040.15-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.54-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.30-0.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0640.0033.07-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.72-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0660.0059.230.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0085.190.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0633.3330.38-0.00-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6754.750.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.500.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6763.740.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3340.34-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.990.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.09-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0666.6739.910.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0680.0073.820.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0650.0035.490.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3333.84-0.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky4.860.0620.0050.95-2.920.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0069.080.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0054.260.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.030.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0048.890.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0078.020.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.680.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0049.350.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0350.0031.510.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0069.250.000.01
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.290.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.550.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0081.280.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0020.18-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.120.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.22-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0025.33-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0375.0047.770.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0017.58-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0030.040.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6759.490.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0021.79-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.280.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6744.530.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.060.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0042.26-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0350.0066.080.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.870.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0325.0046.58-0.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0028.900.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0052.850.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0075.610.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.74-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.79-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0066.000.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.160.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.110.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0079.080.000.02
HarvardIvy2.780.0366.6774.280.930.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.45-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0063.470.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0024.22-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW2.080.0325.0052.70-1.040.00
Morgan St.MEAC2.780.030.0039.00-2.78-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.030.0044.87-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.20-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.680.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0055.110.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.080.030.0067.43-2.080.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0049.930.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.140.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3350.48-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.090.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0325.0054.27-0.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6753.920.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.56-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0064.740.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0065.600.000.01