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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:137.0
Current RPI:209
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:249
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:175
Expected OOC SOS:241



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-442.20.04%
23-549.30.18%
22-659.01.03%
21-772.23.11%
20-887.27.56%
19-9102.013.61%
18-10118.717.86%
17-11136.419.23%
16-12155.916.38%
15-13176.610.76%
14-14197.96.07%
13-15220.72.73%
12-16238.60.97%
11-17260.50.36%
10-18278.90.08%
9-19299.00.01%
8-20319.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois St. (65.6)MVCH73-70W100%0.0
11-15Middle Tennessee (51.2)CUSAA87-81L0%0.0
11-19Green Bay (148.5)HorzN93-77W100%0.0
11-20UMKC (161.4)WACN85-74L0%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (232.0)MACA78-77L0%0.0
11-26Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH91-54W100%0.0
11-29Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCA89-85L0%0.0
12-3Detroit (295.7)HorzH86-76W100%0.0
12-10Evansville (187.7)MVCA0-046%-1.1
12-15Mississippi (120.3)SECA0-034%-4.9
12-17South Dakota St. (240.0)SumA0-056%1.8
12-22Wright St. (172.2)HorzH0-073%7.5
12-31Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCH0-060%2.9
1-5Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCA0-058%2.5
1-7Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCA0-074%7.8
1-12Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA0-057%2.2
1-14SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCA0-068%5.5
1-19Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCH0-072%7.0
1-21Austin Peay (231.2)OVCA0-067%5.2
1-26Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCH0-084%12.1
1-28Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCH0-077%9.0
2-2Belmont (106.9)OVCH0-057%2.2
2-8Morehead St. (225.6)OVCA0-060%2.9
2-11Austin Peay (231.2)OVCH0-083%11.5
2-16SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCH0-084%11.8
2-18Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCH0-076%8.5
2-23Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCA0-069%5.8
2-25Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCA0-059%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC28.6426.2050.0064.390.007.54
Tennessee MartinOVC0.004.4075.0056.360.000.56
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.454.3350.0043.360.00-0.58
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.394.3142.8639.79-0.06-0.88
Austin PeayOVC0.004.3033.3337.65-0.00-1.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.2757.1451.420.000.12
Tennessee TechOVC0.892.4925.0027.60-0.45-1.11
BelmontOVC0.002.4850.0065.180.000.75
Morehead St.OVC0.002.4516.6738.51-0.00-0.56
Tennessee St.OVC0.392.4585.7171.200.281.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.4350.0051.650.000.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.4350.0046.570.00-0.17
Southern IllinoisMVC6.252.0750.0047.380.00-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.392.0742.8644.39-0.06-0.23
Green BayHorz7.092.0750.0053.800.000.16
UMKCWAC7.142.0057.1450.561.020.02
Illinois St.MVC6.251.9775.0070.373.120.80
Bowling GreenMAC7.091.9416.6739.50-4.72-0.41
DetroitHorz6.251.940.0021.98-6.25-1.09
Wright St.Horz0.451.9462.5052.680.110.10
Middle TennesseeCUSA6.251.9185.7175.414.460.97
Alabama A&MSWAC6.251.880.0013.94-6.25-1.35
MississippiSEC0.391.8875.0047.920.20-0.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.391.8225.0039.43-0.20-0.38
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.4157.1453.990.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.450.3860.0058.590.090.06
BradleyMVC0.000.3542.8627.96-0.00-0.15
LipscombASun0.000.2912.5033.04-0.00-0.10
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2828.5731.44-0.00-0.10
Western IllinoisSum0.000.260.0016.68-0.00-0.17
Indiana St.MVC0.000.2542.8650.11-0.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.620.2571.4370.210.270.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2542.8645.44-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.390.250.0019.67-0.39-0.15
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2537.5035.09-0.00-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.2528.5732.62-0.00-0.09
ToledoMAC1.230.2437.5047.91-0.31-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2271.4358.920.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.2233.3352.84-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.2275.0086.710.000.16
OaklandHorz0.450.2185.7177.150.320.12
IndianaB100.000.1987.5074.490.000.09
IUPUISum0.620.1937.5051.64-0.160.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1922.2221.23-0.00-0.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1816.6730.34-0.00-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1842.8630.92-0.00-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1885.7174.990.000.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1842.8638.17-0.00-0.04
TroySB0.000.1642.8636.19-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.1628.5723.78-0.00-0.08
MissouriSEC0.450.1557.1442.530.06-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1320.0022.75-0.00-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1342.8658.58-0.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1312.5033.65-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1375.0066.370.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.390.1271.4357.970.170.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1250.0046.240.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
South DakotaSum0.840.1250.0046.020.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.69-0.00-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1275.0048.030.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.450.1285.7166.190.320.04
Central MichiganMAC0.450.1271.4356.250.190.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1250.0060.620.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1012.5030.39-0.00-0.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1050.0050.450.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.450.0983.3379.850.300.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0937.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0942.8660.54-0.000.02
IllinoisB100.450.0962.5050.710.110.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0942.8655.09-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0034.27-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0940.0058.82-0.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0987.5075.590.000.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.95-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.450.0950.0066.300.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.390.0983.3377.100.260.05
KentuckySEC0.000.0987.5082.800.000.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.31-0.00-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.000.0942.8647.11-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0957.1454.360.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0983.3371.480.000.04
UABCUSA0.450.0950.0059.920.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0985.7157.450.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0940.0041.12-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.620.06100.0061.680.620.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6757.300.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0687.5075.240.000.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.30-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0644.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.450.0625.0034.40-0.22-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.23-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1458.940.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.070.000.01
CreightonBE0.390.06100.0076.630.390.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.450.0650.0056.740.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.450.0625.0020.78-0.22-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.980.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.21-0.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.850.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.620.0362.5058.450.160.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0387.5075.860.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0385.7162.220.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.450.0387.5065.250.330.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.34-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
Kansas St.B120.450.0387.5059.310.330.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.81-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0355.5658.610.000.01
New HampshireAE0.450.0357.1458.840.060.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.450.0342.8646.14-0.06-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0366.6754.050.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.450.0387.5082.360.330.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
MinnesotaB100.450.0387.5068.020.330.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.450.0314.2938.26-0.32-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.0311.1148.19-0.35-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0320.0035.47-0.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.170.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0375.0055.500.000.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01