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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:88.6
Current RPI:105
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:204
Current Record:12-5
Expected Record:21-6
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:127
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-567.719.10%
21-680.034.97%
20-795.128.48%
19-8112.713.21%
18-9131.33.40%
17-10151.60.72%
16-11171.60.10%
15-12193.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Middle Tennessee (32.9)CUSAH67-72L0%0.0
11-18Wright St. (110.7)HorzA61-80W100%0.0
11-25Southern Illinois (139.1)MVCH81-73W100%0.0
12-2Florida A&M (340.4)MEACH80-59W100%0.0
12-9Illinois St. (120.8)MVCA72-78W100%0.0
12-12Saint Louis (178.1)A10A69-55L0%0.0
12-16Marist (318.3)MAACH100-63W100%0.0
12-19Auburn (17.4)SECH77-81L0%0.0
12-22Detroit (297.0)HorzA72-81W100%0.0
12-28Eastern Illinois (270.0)OVCH80-52W100%0.0
12-30SIU Edwardsville (271.1)OVCH87-63W100%0.0
1-4Southeast Missouri St. (244.4)OVCH89-73W100%0.0
1-6Tennessee Martin (301.2)OVCH82-68W100%0.0
1-11Jacksonville St. (151.8)OVCA76-71L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee Tech (171.8)OVCA45-71W100%0.0
1-18Belmont (82.7)OVCA79-72L0%0.0
1-20Tennessee St. (212.9)OVCA57-76W100%0.0
1-25Morehead St. (262.0)OVCH0-093%16.4
1-27Eastern Kentucky (271.3)OVCH0-094%17.1
2-1Southeast Missouri St. (244.4)OVCA0-079%9.1
2-3Tennessee Martin (301.2)OVCA0-082%10.4
2-8Austin Peay (215.2)OVCH0-089%13.7
2-10SIU Edwardsville (271.1)OVCA0-090%14.1
2-15Jacksonville St. (151.8)OVCH0-078%8.7
2-17Tennessee Tech (171.8)OVCH0-090%14.1
2-22Eastern Illinois (270.0)OVCA0-080%9.4
2-24Austin Peay (215.2)OVCA0-075%7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.3226.3170.8976.6711.0014.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.424.6144.4445.95-0.38-0.37
Austin PeayOVC0.634.6144.4448.12-0.07-0.17
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.334.5838.8934.84-0.74-1.39
Tennessee MartinOVC3.264.5527.7833.20-1.45-1.53
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.254.5431.2535.86-1.22-1.28
Jacksonville St.OVC3.104.4868.4268.741.141.68
Tennessee TechOVC3.104.4861.1156.750.690.60
BelmontOVC3.492.7970.0073.811.401.33
Tennessee St.OVC3.492.7937.5042.03-0.87-0.44
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.622.7531.5833.66-0.23-0.90
Morehead St.OVC0.622.7523.5329.54-0.33-1.13
Southern IllinoisMVC3.252.0755.5651.990.360.08
Saint LouisA103.171.9844.4445.08-0.35-0.19
DetroitHorz3.101.9522.2226.91-1.72-0.90
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.181.9570.5973.801.310.93
Wright St.Horz3.021.9272.2271.711.340.83
Illinois St.MVC3.021.9150.0047.510.00-0.10
AuburnSEC3.021.8888.8976.272.350.99
Florida A&MMEAC2.941.8510.5320.28-2.32-1.10
MaristMAAC2.941.8522.2222.75-1.63-1.01
IUPUIHorz0.320.2927.7829.84-0.14-0.12
BradleyMVC0.320.2665.0057.870.100.04
Green BayHorz0.380.2625.0027.94-0.19-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.230.2652.6347.360.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.300.2522.2228.59-0.17-0.11
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.2268.4270.810.080.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.230.2243.7554.09-0.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.250.2042.8635.25-0.04-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.160.1968.4263.640.060.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1966.6773.240.050.09
LipscombASun0.300.1952.9459.360.020.04
ValparaisoMVC0.150.1950.0051.360.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.300.1972.2258.940.130.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1642.1145.97-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1636.8435.55-0.04-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.1645.0047.05-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.230.1677.7871.650.130.07
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1670.0068.420.060.06
MississippiSEC0.240.1652.6345.860.01-0.01
DaytonA100.150.1647.3750.95-0.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.230.1644.4446.10-0.03-0.01
Oregon St.P120.230.1657.8950.810.040.00
South AlabamaSB0.160.1350.0045.900.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.1347.3744.27-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1362.5058.700.040.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.1320.0023.36-0.05-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1352.6355.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.150.1361.9065.160.040.04
UMKCWAC0.150.1321.0524.71-0.09-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1321.0523.50-0.09-0.07
DrakeMVC0.150.1355.0049.070.02-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.1347.0652.51-0.000.01
RichmondA100.150.1231.5834.35-0.06-0.04
HowardMEAC0.150.1210.5327.31-0.12-0.06
NebraskaB100.160.1066.6759.780.050.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1016.6724.91-0.11-0.05
PurdueB100.160.1090.4888.380.130.08
Miami OHMAC0.080.1047.0641.45-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.150.1068.4257.780.060.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.160.1016.6724.29-0.11-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.090.1060.0060.340.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.240.1057.8966.250.040.03
Fort WayneSum0.150.1052.6351.700.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1055.5656.710.020.01
StetsonASun0.150.0933.3336.92-0.05-0.02
LSUSEC0.080.0961.1153.160.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0915.7920.92-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.150.0927.7840.97-0.07-0.02
TCUB120.150.0973.6865.590.070.03
UABCUSA0.160.0961.1164.130.040.03
FairfieldMAAC0.150.0938.8944.14-0.03-0.01
SeattleWAC0.220.0957.8954.500.040.01
DuquesneA100.150.0970.0058.100.060.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0918.7536.76-0.05-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0961.1151.900.020.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0927.7834.50-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0745.0049.270.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.090.0768.4260.530.030.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0758.8262.830.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0710.5316.750.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0768.4254.090.000.01
TroySB0.000.0735.2942.760.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0055.650.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0794.4485.440.000.05
ButlerBE0.080.0766.6763.070.030.02
TexasB120.160.0663.1657.620.040.01
AkronMAC0.080.0647.0644.91-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0630.0036.48-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0627.7831.12-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0617.6519.33-0.05-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0620.0028.72-0.05-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.060.003.12-0.08-0.06
CreightonBE0.080.0675.0070.690.040.03
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.500.030.02
IndianaB100.080.0657.8950.680.010.00
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0633.3333.80-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0673.6862.720.040.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0625.0028.02-0.04-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0611.1117.690.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0641.1838.46-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.150.0666.6767.690.050.02
TulsaAmer0.150.0655.0053.290.020.00
NevadaMWC0.150.0685.7182.070.110.04
Western MichiganMAC0.150.0652.9452.230.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.150.0641.1843.41-0.03-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.150.0652.6343.120.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.065.8819.37-0.13-0.04
Miami FLACC0.160.0676.4769.020.080.02
ArmyPat0.150.0661.1160.530.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0672.2274.900.030.03
La SalleA100.080.0640.0042.72-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0647.3748.17-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0657.1453.220.010.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0631.5830.00-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.080.0665.0065.370.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0644.4448.910.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0627.7832.66-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.150.0630.0031.69-0.06-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6768.700.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1117.96-0.06-0.04
FordhamA100.070.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.150.0645.0041.35-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.150.0670.0060.460.060.01
WinthropBSth0.150.0646.6758.78-0.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0668.4258.990.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0668.4264.200.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.440.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.15-0.07-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0666.6755.930.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
KansasB120.090.0384.2179.740.060.02
XavierBE0.000.0385.7180.080.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.970.040.02
BYUWCC0.080.0380.9576.230.050.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0323.5325.630.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0377.7879.160.040.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0338.8946.030.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0335.2935.57-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
MichiganB100.080.0375.0070.270.040.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.640.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0378.9576.760.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0321.0539.470.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.270.000.01
UCLAP120.080.0365.0062.040.020.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.300.040.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.110.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
ColgatePat0.080.0350.0051.040.000.00
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.440.010.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0345.0043.490.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0378.9572.990.040.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0363.1666.880.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0350.0054.850.000.00
LehighPat0.080.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0377.7869.360.040.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0327.7840.880.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0383.3381.410.050.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0051.650.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
The CitadelSC0.080.0318.7518.40-0.05-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.080.0329.4130.67-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.000.0360.0059.690.000.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.050.02
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.750.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.94-0.06-0.02
CornellIvy0.080.0333.3333.36-0.03-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0373.6871.550.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0370.0071.230.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.760.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0357.8959.470.010.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.6867.950.000.01
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.200.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.070.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0310.5318.34-0.06-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.670.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.860.040.02
TempleAmer0.080.0352.6351.730.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0372.2268.920.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.980.000.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.280.030.01
WashingtonP120.070.0370.0061.440.030.01