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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:192.8
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:288
Current SOS:261
Current Record:8-9
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:278
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9126.71.13%
18-10145.97.01%
17-11164.018.05%
16-12183.926.25%
15-13203.123.68%
14-14222.314.88%
13-15239.86.55%
12-16256.52.07%
11-17273.70.33%
10-18294.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois St. (35.5)MVCH73-70W100%0.0
11-15Middle Tennessee (39.2)CUSAA87-81L0%0.0
11-19Green Bay (149.4)HorzN93-77W100%0.0
11-20UMKC (215.2)WACN85-74L0%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (253.8)MACA78-77L0%0.0
11-26Alabama A&M (350.4)SWACH91-54W100%0.0
11-29Southern Illinois (153.7)MVCA89-85L0%0.0
12-3Detroit (268.3)HorzH86-76W100%0.0
12-10Evansville (199.7)MVCA78-46L0%0.0
12-15Mississippi (86.7)SECA78-73L0%0.0
12-17South Dakota St. (265.0)SumA88-84L0%0.0
12-22Wright St. (157.0)HorzH62-77L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee St. (112.4)OVCH92-83W100%0.0
1-5Jacksonville St. (159.2)OVCA63-76W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Tech (301.1)OVCA71-67L0%0.0
1-12Eastern Illinois (258.7)OVCA72-83W100%0.0
1-14SIU Edwardsville (317.1)OVCA59-67W100%0.0
1-19Eastern Kentucky (262.1)OVCH0-082%10.4
1-21Austin Peay (282.4)OVCA0-069%5.5
1-26Southeast Missouri St. (308.4)OVCH0-079%9.1
1-28Tennessee Martin (187.5)OVCH0-073%6.7
2-2Belmont (86.8)OVCH0-047%-1.0
2-8Morehead St. (218.8)OVCA0-047%-0.9
2-11Austin Peay (282.4)OVCH0-085%11.7
2-16SIU Edwardsville (317.1)OVCH0-089%13.4
2-18Eastern Illinois (258.7)OVCH0-069%5.7
2-23Southeast Missouri St. (308.4)OVCA0-060%2.9
2-25Tennessee Martin (187.5)OVCA0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.4626.1953.5257.961.864.17
Tennessee MartinOVC0.514.4055.5657.030.060.62
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.204.3325.0025.77-1.60-2.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.264.3127.7835.26-0.11-1.27
Austin PeayOVC0.424.3023.5328.96-0.22-1.81
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.024.2746.6751.04-0.200.09
Tennessee TechOVC3.292.4923.5326.86-1.74-1.15
Morehead St.OVC0.352.4531.2539.39-0.13-0.52
Tennessee St.OVC3.032.4566.6768.261.010.90
BelmontOVC0.092.4573.3373.870.041.17
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.272.4333.3333.80-0.09-0.79
Jacksonville St.OVC3.112.4358.8255.910.550.29
Southern IllinoisMVC3.282.0752.9448.120.19-0.08
EvansvilleMVC3.282.0641.1841.46-0.58-0.35
Green BayHorz3.282.0360.0056.700.660.27
UMKCWAC3.202.0035.2937.78-0.94-0.49
Illinois St.MVC3.101.9781.2580.541.941.20
Bowling GreenMAC3.371.9431.2533.09-1.27-0.66
DetroitHorz3.111.9418.7525.17-1.95-0.96
Wright St.Horz3.201.9456.2553.310.400.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.201.9181.2582.222.001.23
Alabama A&MSWAC3.191.886.6712.26-2.77-1.42
MississippiSEC3.031.8858.8253.620.530.14
South Dakota St.Sum3.021.8229.4131.54-1.24-0.67
Northern KentuckyHorz0.270.4158.8257.810.050.06
Missouri St.MVC0.420.3761.1157.810.090.06
BradleyMVC0.340.3438.8934.53-0.07-0.10
LipscombASun0.260.2941.1847.63-0.05-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.2827.7834.21-0.08-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.270.2626.6727.58-0.12-0.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.2552.9451.000.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2522.2227.20-0.14-0.11
Fort WayneSum0.170.2568.7569.290.060.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.2547.3745.13-0.01-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.260.2535.2937.77-0.08-0.06
DrakeMVC0.330.2525.0025.30-0.16-0.12
ToledoMAC0.610.2452.9452.830.040.01
OaklandHorz0.260.2270.5972.950.110.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.2164.7161.540.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.160.2131.2537.17-0.06-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.250.2178.9582.970.140.14
IndianaB100.090.1966.6763.790.030.05
IUPUISum0.170.1935.2942.44-0.05-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1933.3333.44-0.03-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1977.7877.180.100.10
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.1933.3330.24-0.09-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.1821.4327.22-0.05-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.170.1837.5034.43-0.04-0.06
TroySB0.280.1647.0648.08-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.260.1627.7824.41-0.12-0.08
MissouriSEC0.180.1531.2526.54-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.1361.1163.000.020.03
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1344.4442.66-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.270.1318.7528.13-0.17-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.090.1364.7165.910.030.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1316.6718.35-0.00-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.260.1243.7541.38-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.270.1256.2551.860.030.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.1255.5660.000.010.02
South DakotaSum0.250.1257.8957.060.040.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.1217.6524.66-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.1270.5958.350.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.1277.7870.240.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.260.1253.3355.950.020.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.170.0975.0076.830.080.05
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0963.1663.680.020.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0922.2230.92-0.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0953.3361.460.010.02
HawaiiBW0.170.0940.0044.11-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.0950.0051.390.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0921.4336.57-0.05-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0961.1153.510.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0937.5051.02-0.020.00
TulsaAmer0.250.0956.2551.290.030.00
LouisvilleACC0.160.0983.3377.690.110.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0918.7535.76-0.11-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0950.0066.230.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.170.0988.2484.340.130.06
KentuckySEC0.080.0988.8987.430.060.07
Oral RobertsSum0.160.0917.6527.66-0.11-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0964.7156.190.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0947.0648.25-0.01-0.00
OhioMAC0.080.0966.6767.310.030.03
UABCUSA0.180.0958.8263.680.030.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0964.7154.900.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.160.0947.0648.43-0.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.0617.6521.39-0.11-0.04
DaytonA100.000.0675.0076.080.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0629.4127.58-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.090.0666.6761.460.030.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0688.2484.470.060.04
SeattleWAC0.080.0640.0037.09-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0625.0027.36-0.04-0.03
Texas St.SB0.090.0653.3345.900.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0640.0044.61-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0626.6739.94-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0682.3577.050.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.160.0650.0047.440.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5024.41-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0620.0024.59-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0661.1157.840.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0642.1130.44-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.0650.0042.010.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0625.0029.58-0.05-0.03
IdahoBSky0.160.0635.7144.05-0.05-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0631.2545.29-0.03-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0636.8436.59-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0611.1123.08-0.07-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0662.5060.110.020.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0617.6535.23-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.170.0681.2565.210.110.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.0650.0058.480.000.01
CreightonBE0.160.0694.4484.830.150.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.0657.1458.850.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.0660.0061.060.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0620.0019.56-0.06-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.2536.83-0.03-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.170.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.090.0682.3575.750.060.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0637.5045.11-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0612.5021.92-0.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0681.2572.840.050.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0323.5321.77-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0364.7166.950.000.01
DukeACC0.090.0377.7873.730.050.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0356.2559.190.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0329.4134.19-0.04-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0368.4252.460.030.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0363.1651.670.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0378.9576.880.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0350.0046.700.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.090.0352.9454.870.010.00
KansasB120.080.0394.4481.660.070.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0376.4759.460.050.01
PacificWCC0.090.0338.8934.93-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0388.2484.620.060.02
WisconsinB100.090.0383.3381.270.060.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.0362.5063.040.020.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0340.0040.94-0.02-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0372.2266.110.040.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0375.0074.750.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.090.0388.8978.090.070.02
FurmanSC0.080.0350.0054.870.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0364.7147.100.02-0.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0312.5028.51-0.06-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.036.6718.54-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0356.2553.390.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0325.0028.48-0.04-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0388.2471.860.060.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0363.1657.650.020.00
New HampshireAE0.090.0353.3357.140.010.00
New MexicoMWC0.090.0357.8958.050.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.090.0346.1554.02-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0318.7530.24-0.05-0.01
Penn St.B100.090.0361.1150.520.020.00
SamfordSC0.080.0364.7159.940.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0361.1158.720.020.01
Texas TechB120.000.0376.4763.780.000.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0362.5055.530.020.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0343.7543.54-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0388.2486.400.070.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0362.5068.380.000.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0378.9570.200.050.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0337.5044.59-0.02-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0336.8448.43-0.02-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.090.0326.6732.18-0.04-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0360.0053.490.020.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0361.1162.130.000.01
RiceCUSA0.090.0362.5066.040.020.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0350.0041.050.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0347.3743.64-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0318.7523.94-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.33-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.090.0377.7873.850.050.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0362.5057.030.000.00
BaylorB120.000.0394.1280.670.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0364.7158.480.020.00
LSUSEC0.000.0356.2539.360.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0361.1159.260.020.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0372.2264.100.040.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0352.6360.470.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0352.9450.980.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.080.0376.4762.130.040.01