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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:142.0
Current RPI:142
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:238
Current Record:16-11
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:13-4
Expected Conf Record:13-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:230
Expected OOC SOS:94



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11142.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA77-74L0%0.0
11-15Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA70-60L0%0.0
11-23Auburn (169.0)SECA75-67L0%0.0
11-26Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH62-80L0%0.0
11-30Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA89-64L0%0.0
12-4Evansville (214.0)MVCH65-63W100%0.0
12-7Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH73-69W100%0.0
12-17Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH73-65W100%0.0
12-21Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA71-64L0%0.0
12-29Dayton (43.0)A10A72-51L0%0.0
1-2Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH82-75W100%0.0
1-5Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH91-77W100%0.0
1-8Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA64-77W100%0.0
1-11Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH89-67W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA66-70W100%0.0
1-18SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA67-60L0%0.0
1-23Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH92-53W100%0.0
1-25Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH73-65W100%0.0
1-31Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA88-96W100%0.0
2-6Belmont (57.0)OVCA99-96L0%0.0
2-8Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA65-73W100%0.0
2-13SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH82-72W100%0.0
2-15Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH72-60W100%0.0
2-22Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH69-58W100%0.0
2-27Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA72-86W100%0.0
3-1Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA118-115L0%0.0
3-7Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCN83-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.2126.2163.5563.557.107.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.564.5653.5753.570.330.33
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.524.5234.6234.62-1.39-1.39
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.494.4929.6329.63-1.83-1.83
Austin PeayOVC4.494.4938.4638.46-1.04-1.04
Tennessee MartinOVC4.464.4622.2222.22-2.48-2.48
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.424.4272.4172.411.981.98
BelmontOVC2.722.7270.9770.971.141.14
Tennessee TechOVC2.662.6650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC2.632.6314.2914.29-1.88-1.88
Morehead St.OVC2.602.6060.0060.000.520.52
Jacksonville St.OVC2.572.5728.5728.57-1.10-1.10
LipscombASun2.102.1050.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC2.072.0741.9441.94-0.33-0.33
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.971.9770.0070.000.790.79
Western KentuckySB1.951.9560.0060.000.390.39
EvansvilleMVC1.941.9440.0040.00-0.39-0.39
AuburnSEC1.921.9244.8344.83-0.20-0.20
Old DominionCUSA1.911.9146.8846.88-0.12-0.12
ValparaisoHorz1.881.8848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DaytonA101.851.8568.7568.750.690.69
Saint Mary'sWCC1.851.8564.5264.520.540.54
East Tennessee St.ASun0.350.3553.1253.120.020.02
IPFWSum0.310.3167.7467.740.110.11
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2767.7467.740.100.10
Saint LouisA100.270.2780.6580.650.170.17
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
UICHorz0.220.2213.7913.79-0.16-0.16
Northern KentuckyASun0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.210.21100.00100.000.210.21
Missouri St.MVC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
IUPUISum0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
MemphisAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1330.7730.77-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
TulaneCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
FIUCUSA0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
RichmondA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
StetsonASun0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
FloridaSEC0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
Green BayHorz0.090.0977.7877.780.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.090.0928.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
XavierBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0373.5373.530.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00