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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:63.0
Current RPI:63
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:234
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:17-1
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:119
Expected OOC SOS:200



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-563.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Houston (239.0)AmerH74-77L0%0.0
11-18Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA49-68W100%0.0
11-24Xavier (30.0)BEA89-62L0%0.0
11-28Portland (149.0)WCCN64-61L0%0.0
11-29Valparaiso (50.0)HorzN58-93L0%0.0
11-30Drake (269.0)MVCN59-68W100%0.0
12-6Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH93-81W100%0.0
12-13Evansville (118.0)MVCA79-81W100%0.0
12-17Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH94-56W100%0.0
12-20Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH89-77W100%0.0
12-22Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA71-83W100%0.0
12-30Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH76-39W100%0.0
1-3Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA57-66W100%0.0
1-8Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA67-83W100%0.0
1-11Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA57-84W100%0.0
1-15Belmont (105.0)OVCH92-77W100%0.0
1-17Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH91-72W100%0.0
1-22Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA62-77W100%0.0
1-24SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA54-60W100%0.0
1-29Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH85-78W100%0.0
1-31Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH65-62W100%0.0
2-5Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH82-72W100%0.0
2-7Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA72-82W100%0.0
2-12SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH78-46W100%0.0
2-14Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA92-94W100%0.0
2-21Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH89-54W100%0.0
2-26Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH65-57W100%0.0
2-28Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA67-73W100%0.0
3-6Morehead St. (201.0)OVCN80-77W100%0.0
3-7Belmont (105.0)OVCN88-87L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.2526.2583.1183.1117.3817.38
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.164.1655.5655.560.460.46
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.154.1542.3142.31-0.64-0.64
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.144.1441.6741.67-0.69-0.69
BelmontOVC4.144.1468.9768.971.571.57
Tennessee MartinOVC4.124.1261.5461.540.950.95
Morehead St.OVC4.094.0950.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC4.094.0923.0823.08-2.20-2.20
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.432.4362.9662.960.630.63
Tennessee St.OVC2.432.4310.7110.71-1.91-1.91
Jacksonville St.OVC2.382.3835.7135.71-0.68-0.68
Tennessee TechOVC2.352.3537.0437.04-0.61-0.61
Southern IllinoisMVC2.072.0735.4835.48-0.60-0.60
Illinois St.MVC1.921.9264.5264.520.560.56
EvansvilleMVC1.911.9162.0762.070.460.46
DrakeMVC1.881.8827.5927.59-0.84-0.84
Alabama A&MSWAC1.811.8129.6329.63-0.74-0.74
Western KentuckyCUSA1.801.8062.0762.070.440.44
PortlandWCC1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.781.7854.5554.550.160.16
ValparaisoHorz1.751.7582.7682.761.151.15
Alcorn St.SWAC1.731.7317.2417.24-1.13-1.13
HoustonAmer1.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
XavierBE1.671.6760.6160.610.350.35
Missouri St.MVC0.360.3631.0331.03-0.14-0.14
Indiana St.MVC0.330.3346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.290.2939.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.270.2787.1087.100.200.20
BradleyMVC0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
Northern IowaMVC0.240.2490.9190.910.200.20
SouthernSWAC0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.210.2168.7568.750.080.08
UABCUSA0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
Green BayHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
ButlerBE0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1762.9662.960.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.140.000.00-0.14-0.14
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1418.7518.75-0.09-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
IPFWSum0.120.1248.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.070.07
BYUWCC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MissouriSEC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.090.0929.6329.63-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0886.6786.670.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NebraskaB100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
AkronMAC0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01