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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:230.0
Current RPI:230
Expected SOS:262
Current SOS:262
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17230.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH73-70W100%0.0
11-15Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA87-81L0%0.0
11-19Green Bay (157.0)HorzN93-77W100%0.0
11-20UMKC (184.0)WACN85-74L0%0.0
11-21Bowling Green (225.0)MACA78-77L0%0.0
11-26Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH91-54W100%0.0
11-29Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA89-85L0%0.0
12-3Detroit (289.0)HorzH86-76W100%0.0
12-10Evansville (188.0)MVCA78-46L0%0.0
12-15Mississippi (77.0)SECA78-73L0%0.0
12-17South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA88-84L0%0.0
12-22Wright St. (115.0)HorzH62-77L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH92-83W100%0.0
1-5Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA63-76W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA71-67L0%0.0
1-12Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA72-83W100%0.0
1-14SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA59-67W100%0.0
1-19Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH86-79W100%0.0
1-21Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA84-81L0%0.0
1-26Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH74-75L0%0.0
1-28Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH94-86W100%0.0
2-2Belmont (61.0)OVCH69-81L0%0.0
2-8Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA101-100L0%0.0
2-11Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH102-58W100%0.0
2-16SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH84-73W100%0.0
2-18Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH65-82L0%0.0
2-23Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA82-69L0%0.0
2-25Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA83-76L0%0.0
3-1Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCN84-85W100%0.0
3-2Morehead St. (200.0)OVCN69-75W100%0.0
3-3Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCN73-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.3426.3445.8045.80-2.21-2.21
Tennessee MartinOVC5.645.6460.7160.711.211.21
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.044.0437.9337.93-0.97-0.97
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.004.0019.2319.23-2.46-2.46
Austin PeayOVC3.973.9730.7730.77-1.53-1.53
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.943.9444.0044.00-0.47-0.47
Tennessee TechOVC3.933.9332.1432.14-1.40-1.40
Morehead St.OVC3.893.8942.3142.31-0.60-0.60
Jacksonville St.OVC2.472.4758.0658.060.400.40
Tennessee St.OVC2.382.3855.5655.560.260.26
BelmontOVC2.352.3576.9276.921.271.27
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.312.3135.7135.71-0.66-0.66
EvansvilleMVC1.901.9043.3343.33-0.25-0.25
Southern IllinoisMVC1.901.9048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC1.841.8483.8783.871.251.25
Green BayHorz1.831.8357.1457.140.260.26
UMKCWAC1.821.8244.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Bowling GreenMAC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
DetroitHorz1.751.7524.1424.14-0.90-0.90
Wright St.Horz1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
Alabama A&MSWAC1.751.757.147.14-1.50-1.50
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.721.7287.5087.501.291.29
MississippiSEC1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
South Dakota St.Sum1.641.6448.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.420.4268.7568.750.160.16
LipscombASun0.370.3756.6756.670.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.290.2937.5037.50-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.250.2541.9441.94-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.2529.4129.41-0.10-0.10
Indiana St.MVC0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
ToledoMAC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.220.2223.0823.08-0.12-0.12
Fort WayneSum0.220.2257.1457.140.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
DrakeMVC0.200.2020.6920.69-0.12-0.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.200.2087.8887.880.150.15
Miami OHMAC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Northern IowaMVC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
MarshallCUSA0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
TroySB0.150.1558.8258.820.030.03
Saint LouisA100.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.08-0.08
OhioMAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01