Murray St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	110.0
Current RPI:	110
Expected SOS:	186
Current SOS:	186
Current Record:	19-10
Expected Record:	19-10
Current Conf Record:	11-7
Expected Conf Record:	11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	50
Expected OOC SOS:	98

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	110.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	N	59-79	W	100%
11-16	St. John's (96.0)	BE	N	72-67	W	100%
11-18	Colorado (38.0)	P12	N	74-81	L	0%
11-24	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	79-72	W	100%
11-26	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	79-88	W	100%
12-8	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	70-82	W	100%
12-16	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	75-70	W	100%
12-19	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	54-61	W	100%
12-22	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	77-68	L	0%
12-29	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	64-66	L	0%
1-3	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	62-73	W	100%
1-5	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	66-74	W	100%
1-9	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	65-77	L	0%
1-12	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	A	68-71	W	100%
1-17	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	70-49	W	100%
1-19	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	70-61	W	100%
1-24	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	39-47	W	100%
1-26	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	A	65-64	L	0%
2-2	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	75-68	W	100%
2-7	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	79-74	W	100%
2-9	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	69-48	W	100%
2-14	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	65-60	L	0%
2-16	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	79-70	L	0%
2-20	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	A	100-106	W	100%
2-23	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	73-62	W	100%
2-28	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	68-69	L	0%
3-2	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	68-84	L	0%
3-8	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	N	81-73	W	100%
3-9	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	70-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Murray St.	OVC	26.25	26.25	66.43	66.43	8.63	8.63
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.29	4.29	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Austin Peay	OVC	4.25	4.25	22.22	22.22	-2.36	-2.36
Tennessee Martin	OVC	4.25	4.25	23.08	23.08	-2.29	-2.29
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.23	4.23	34.48	34.48	-1.31	-1.31
Belmont	OVC	4.22	4.22	82.14	82.14	2.71	2.71
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.19	4.19	72.41	72.41	1.88	1.88
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.15	4.15	26.09	26.09	-1.98	-1.98
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.55	2.55	55.17	55.17	0.26	0.26
Morehead St.	OVC	2.53	2.53	43.33	43.33	-0.34	-0.34
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.52	2.52	38.46	38.46	-0.58	-0.58
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.43	2.43	56.00	56.00	0.29	0.29
Lipscomb	ASun	1.99	1.99	39.29	39.29	-0.43	-0.43
Arkansas St.	SB	1.95	1.95	62.07	62.07	0.47	0.47
Western Kentucky	SB	1.87	1.87	57.58	57.58	0.28	0.28
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.81	1.81	73.33	73.33	0.84	0.84
Dayton	A10	1.81	1.81	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Auburn	SEC	1.78	1.78	29.03	29.03	-0.75	-0.75
Valparaiso	Horz	1.78	1.78	77.42	77.42	0.98	0.98
Evansville	MVC	1.76	1.76	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Colorado	P12	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Old Dominion	CAA	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
St. John's	BE	1.72	1.72	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Western Illinois	Sum	0.28	0.28	71.43	71.43	0.12	0.12
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.27	0.27	39.29	39.29	-0.06	-0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.24	0.24	81.82	81.82	0.15	0.15
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.19	0.19	84.85	84.85	0.14	0.14
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.19	0.19	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.19	0.19	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.18	0.18	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.18	0.18	13.79	13.79	-0.13	-0.13
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.18	0.18	10.00	10.00	-0.14	-0.14
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.17	0.17	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Memphis	CUSA	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	14.81	14.81	-0.09	-0.09
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
High Point	BSth	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01