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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Murray St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:170.9
Current RPI:163
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:126
Current Record:10-11
Expected Record:14-13
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11141.012.07%
15-12158.631.26%
14-13175.634.06%
13-14192.617.68%
12-15210.04.45%
11-16227.50.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Murray St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Middle Tennessee (79.1)CUSAH76-65W100%0.0
11-20Georgia (81.2)SECA63-52L0%0.0
11-23Milwaukee (158.7)HorzN63-66W100%0.0
11-24Pepperdine (122.3)WCCN55-59W100%0.0
11-25Weber St. (127.5)BSkyN75-59L0%0.0
11-28Alabama A&M (299.1)SWACH63-61W100%0.0
12-2Houston (99.4)AmerA93-78L0%0.0
12-5Evansville (75.1)MVCH81-85L0%0.0
12-13Illinois St. (148.3)MVCA63-61L0%0.0
12-18Southern Illinois (125.9)MVCH73-88L0%0.0
12-22Wright St. (166.5)HorzA65-49L0%0.0
1-2Morehead St. (155.3)OVCH62-57W100%0.0
1-7Tennessee Tech (107.4)OVCH65-71L0%0.0
1-9Jacksonville St. (300.8)OVCH69-54W100%0.0
1-14Belmont (68.5)OVCA81-73L0%0.0
1-16Tennessee St. (176.0)OVCA73-71L0%0.0
1-21Eastern Illinois (251.7)OVCH68-58W100%0.0
1-23SIU Edwardsville (309.6)OVCH70-54W100%0.0
1-27Eastern Kentucky (216.6)OVCA71-75W100%0.0
1-30Tennessee Martin (248.8)OVCA63-59L0%0.0
2-4Southeast Missouri St. (329.6)OVCA72-78W100%0.0
2-6Austin Peay (252.5)OVCH0-079%8.7
2-11SIU Edwardsville (309.6)OVCA0-067%4.9
2-13Southeast Missouri St. (329.6)OVCH0-092%15.6
2-20Austin Peay (252.5)OVCA0-058%2.1
2-25Eastern Illinois (251.7)OVCA0-057%1.8
2-27Tennessee Martin (248.8)OVCH0-076%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Murray St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Murray St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Murray St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Murray St.OVC26.1726.2147.1953.38-1.471.77
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.994.5215.0017.31-2.09-2.96
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.934.4919.0523.33-1.81-2.40
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.874.4640.0044.70-0.57-0.47
Austin PeayOVC0.554.4434.7837.99-0.17-1.07
Tennessee MartinOVC2.764.4442.8646.93-0.39-0.27
BelmontOVC2.942.5868.1868.961.070.98
Tennessee St.OVC2.872.5763.1659.300.760.48
Jacksonville St.OVC2.892.5527.2726.47-1.31-1.20
Morehead St.OVC2.862.5455.0056.320.290.32
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.832.5252.1748.490.12-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC2.822.5165.0064.080.850.71
Southern IllinoisMVC2.602.1173.9172.601.240.95
EvansvilleMVC2.662.1172.7375.211.211.06
Illinois St.MVC2.602.0450.0045.810.00-0.17
Alabama A&MSWAC2.541.9837.5046.28-0.64-0.15
MilwaukeeHorz2.541.9865.0064.270.760.57
HoustonAmer2.441.9271.4366.901.040.65
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.491.9273.6871.481.180.82
Wright St.Horz2.491.9252.3853.590.120.14
GeorgiaSEC2.381.8557.8954.510.380.17
PepperdineWCC2.381.8561.9060.250.570.38
Weber St.BSky2.381.8566.6770.780.790.77
Northern KentuckyHorz0.280.3030.0032.46-0.11-0.10
Green BayHorz0.280.3057.1457.880.040.05
Indiana St.MVC0.260.2554.5555.310.020.03
Missouri St.MVC0.260.2540.9138.03-0.05-0.06
DrakeMVC0.320.2522.7324.85-0.18-0.13
Saint LouisA100.280.2338.1033.38-0.07-0.08
LipscombASun0.280.2321.7427.64-0.16-0.10
MarshallCUSA0.220.2047.8350.56-0.010.00
IPFWSum0.050.1973.9170.210.030.08
ValparaisoHorz0.210.1980.9583.050.130.13
OaklandHorz0.220.1966.6767.310.070.07
BradleyMVC0.150.188.709.77-0.13-0.15
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.1840.9139.22-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.200.1852.1754.140.010.02
Wichita St.MVC0.200.1876.1979.640.110.11
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1733.3334.18-0.06-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.230.1761.9058.190.050.03
IndianaB100.110.1782.6177.370.070.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1740.9140.96-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.1647.6247.96-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.160.1615.0015.65-0.12-0.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1630.0029.98-0.07-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.1623.8128.31-0.09-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1622.7323.37-0.09-0.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.165.267.22-0.15-0.14
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1427.7829.23-0.05-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1417.3921.76-0.12-0.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.170.1326.3233.83-0.08-0.04
MississippiSEC0.120.1363.6456.050.030.02
Portland St.BSky0.120.1333.3339.27-0.04-0.03
BYUWCC0.220.1369.5773.030.090.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.1376.1976.220.120.07
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1345.0041.83-0.01-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.1342.8645.93-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.220.1337.5036.54-0.06-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1331.8232.32-0.06-0.05
UABCUSA0.160.1381.8278.320.100.07
DetroitHorz0.160.1345.0044.39-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1373.6870.400.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1331.8233.75-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.160.1372.7369.690.070.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1116.6720.71-0.09-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1150.0056.540.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.104.7614.01-0.11-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1055.0048.870.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1057.1457.930.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.1059.0958.550.010.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1026.3236.93-0.05-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1085.7184.560.120.07
TulaneAmer0.120.1033.3332.41-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.170.1050.0054.850.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1081.8281.010.070.06
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1015.7916.39-0.08-0.07
AuburnSEC0.060.1042.8637.19-0.01-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1050.0050.510.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.1042.8641.75-0.01-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.1040.9143.37-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1059.0962.730.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.160.0930.0029.46-0.06-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0721.7424.60-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0763.1666.150.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0747.6257.27-0.000.01
DaytonA100.060.0785.7181.220.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0759.0959.470.010.01
StetsonASun0.120.0725.0029.75-0.06-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0733.3333.64-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0722.7324.28-0.06-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.0728.5728.88-0.05-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.0725.0029.52-0.06-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.120.0750.0048.260.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0768.1866.490.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0730.0030.38-0.02-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0777.2776.130.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0742.1142.70-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0755.5660.900.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0744.4446.94-0.01-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.075.2610.18-0.06-0.05
NorthwesternB100.050.0766.6763.480.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0721.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0744.4448.52-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0785.0085.230.040.05
San DiegoWCC0.110.0733.3329.23-0.04-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0752.3848.890.00-0.00
USCP120.050.0778.2673.130.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.0630.0028.61-0.04-0.03
DenverSum0.120.0652.1748.790.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.110.0666.6758.760.040.01
Georgia St.SB0.110.0661.1158.300.030.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.0635.0034.93-0.03-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.110.0642.8635.05-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.110.0660.0057.290.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0657.1452.310.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0628.5734.73-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0631.5836.16-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0668.1867.800.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0669.5768.670.020.02
MissouriSEC0.120.0636.3630.98-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0668.1869.350.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0650.0045.730.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0685.7176.030.040.03
South DakotaSum0.110.0639.1339.48-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0661.9054.010.010.01
TroySB0.000.0620.0023.76-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0630.0034.84-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.110.0665.0063.370.030.02
WoffordSC0.000.0638.1043.35-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.0650.0050.040.000.00
LSUSEC0.110.0663.6459.440.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0673.9173.090.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0672.7372.440.020.03
SMUAmer0.110.0690.4885.550.090.04
South FloridaAmer0.110.0620.8320.11-0.06-0.04
TempleAmer0.050.0661.9058.420.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0663.6459.950.010.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.0047.170.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0621.0523.70-0.06-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0357.8955.400.010.00
IowaB100.060.0381.8279.900.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0331.8234.36-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0363.6468.210.020.01
OhioMAC0.060.0360.0057.960.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0380.0070.290.030.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0325.0029.91-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0336.3642.19-0.02-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0350.0053.090.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0357.1457.940.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0342.8651.33-0.010.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0357.8961.920.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0072.220.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0338.1041.23-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0354.5561.950.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0325.0028.19-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0357.1457.560.010.00
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.350.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0363.6465.480.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0347.3749.38-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0335.0035.36-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0314.2913.97-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.060.0377.2776.780.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0352.1750.240.000.00
BaylorB120.060.0376.1967.350.030.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.557.91-0.05-0.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0363.6462.340.020.01
George MasonA100.050.0336.3635.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0354.5552.750.010.00
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0359.0955.550.010.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0365.2256.530.020.00
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.81-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0366.6760.120.020.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0368.1863.720.020.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0372.7368.630.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0381.8281.010.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.1747.250.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.900.010.00
XavierBE0.050.0390.9184.430.040.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.7922.51-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0319.0522.35-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.0043.19-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0386.9681.770.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0310.0015.28-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0378.2671.960.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0354.5555.990.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0381.8277.440.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0331.5833.51-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.670.020.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0375.0071.280.020.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0381.8278.720.030.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0340.9140.46-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0366.6761.680.020.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0347.3750.51-0.000.00