live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:52
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:175
Current Record:22-7
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:14-3
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:27.50%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-754.697.53%
22-870.92.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern (257.6)SWACA76-85W100%0.0
11-17Temple (43.3)AmerA82-75L0%0.0
11-21Morehead St. (213.7)OVCH73-64W100%0.0
11-22American (163.2)PatH63-44W100%0.0
11-23Presbyterian (315.8)BSthH76-48W100%0.0
11-28Samford (293.0)SCH77-64W100%0.0
12-2Northwestern St. (168.6)SlndA88-99W100%0.0
12-6Jackson St. (314.1)SWACH65-52W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Lafayette (156.8)SBA94-86L0%0.0
12-14Syracuse (64.7)ACCA71-69L0%0.0
12-18Nicholls St. (324.7)SlndH79-54W100%0.0
12-23North Carolina St. (46.3)ACCA73-65L0%0.0
1-3Southern Miss (285.5)CUSAA70-83W100%0.0
1-8UTEP (77.1)CUSAA45-58W100%0.0
1-10UTSA (225.4)CUSAA72-84W100%0.0
1-15UAB (147.1)CUSAH74-71W100%0.0
1-17Middle Tennessee (179.4)CUSAH75-68W100%0.0
1-22North Texas (209.4)CUSAA73-66L0%0.0
1-24Rice (267.5)CUSAA45-58W100%0.0
1-29Western Kentucky (111.7)CUSAH69-56W100%0.0
1-31Marshall (289.8)CUSAH81-57W100%0.0
2-5UAB (147.1)CUSAA80-60L0%0.0
2-7Middle Tennessee (179.4)CUSAA62-73W100%0.0
2-12Florida Atlantic (304.4)CUSAH65-54W100%0.0
2-14FIU (247.5)CUSAH75-42W100%0.0
2-19Charlotte (195.7)CUSAA82-83W100%0.0
2-21Old Dominion (41.5)CUSAA72-53L0%0.0
2-26UTEP (77.1)CUSAH77-60W100%0.0
2-28UTSA (225.4)CUSAH76-66W100%0.0
3-5Southern Miss (285.5)CUSAH0-098%20.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.1726.1682.3582.6716.9417.09
Southern MissCUSA2.524.0528.0028.00-1.11-1.78
UABCUSA4.094.0353.8554.740.310.38
Middle TennesseeCUSA4.064.0153.8554.430.310.36
UTEPCUSA4.043.9973.0874.201.861.93
UTSACUSA4.023.9747.8349.53-0.17-0.04
North TexasCUSA2.372.4044.0042.34-0.28-0.37
FIUCUSA2.342.3642.3141.76-0.36-0.39
RiceCUSA2.332.3633.3332.34-0.78-0.83
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.332.3625.0025.92-1.17-1.14
MarshallCUSA2.372.3334.6232.77-0.73-0.80
CharlotteCUSA2.342.3146.4348.46-0.17-0.07
Old DominionCUSA2.342.3177.7878.571.301.32
Western KentuckyCUSA2.342.3064.0061.110.650.51
Jackson St.SWAC1.941.9035.7137.82-0.56-0.46
Morehead St.OVC1.881.8148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC1.851.7846.1545.06-0.14-0.18
Nicholls St.Slnd1.831.7622.7325.09-1.00-0.88
Northwestern St.Slnd1.831.7659.0958.040.330.28
AmericanPat1.811.7551.7251.720.060.06
PresbyterianBSth1.811.7522.2222.22-1.01-0.97
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.791.7352.0053.800.070.13
North Carolina St.ACC1.751.7258.6258.920.300.31
SamfordSC1.751.7041.3841.38-0.30-0.29
TempleAmer1.751.6967.8667.590.630.60
SyracuseACC1.721.6958.6257.750.300.26
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1928.5730.86-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.160.1825.9327.35-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1860.0059.390.040.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1742.8645.17-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1715.3814.76-0.13-0.12
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1768.9768.970.070.06
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1670.0070.120.070.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1637.5039.77-0.05-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.180.1627.5928.43-0.08-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.167.417.65-0.12-0.14
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.1659.0960.710.030.03
TroySB0.140.1530.7731.17-0.05-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.130.1567.8668.280.050.05
Washington St.P120.170.1542.8641.43-0.02-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1553.5754.710.010.01
LSUSEC0.130.1570.0068.640.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.150.1443.3343.11-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.150.1476.6775.470.080.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1420.0020.58-0.09-0.08
BelmontOVC0.150.1464.2964.290.040.04
DukeACC0.150.1490.0088.620.120.11
North CarolinaACC0.150.1470.0069.450.060.05
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1327.2727.95-0.05-0.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1384.6284.500.070.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1353.8556.030.010.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.140.1223.0823.57-0.07-0.07
Texas St.SB0.140.1241.6741.69-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.1185.7185.710.090.08
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.120.1179.3179.310.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.1128.0029.85-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.1160.8761.600.020.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1135.4836.32-0.04-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.110.000.74-0.12-0.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.1158.6260.320.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1164.2965.480.040.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Virginia TechACC0.120.1133.3333.08-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.120.1146.4346.45-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1160.0059.680.020.02
Miami FLACC0.120.1163.3363.690.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1031.8231.52-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.110.1044.0043.03-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.100.0961.2961.290.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.0989.6688.010.080.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0938.4639.08-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0970.8368.830.040.03
CampbellBSth0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0962.9662.960.020.02
MercerSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0937.0437.15-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0961.5461.540.020.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0937.9337.47-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.090.0943.3342.97-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0960.7159.690.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0840.7440.36-0.01-0.02
UCFAmer0.090.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.090.0858.6257.940.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.090.0875.0073.140.050.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0851.8551.850.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0862.0762.070.020.02
ColgatePat0.090.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.090.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.090.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0837.9338.79-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0855.1753.660.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0896.5595.350.080.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0726.9225.63-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0776.0074.340.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.070.0679.3178.180.040.04
Texas TechB120.070.0643.3342.03-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0655.1754.370.000.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0666.6766.670.010.02
Rhode IslandA100.030.0670.3770.990.010.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0630.7731.71-0.03-0.02
TCUB120.070.0656.6756.090.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0646.4347.82-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0642.8642.02-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0670.3770.370.030.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0655.5655.060.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0653.8553.850.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.070.0659.2659.260.010.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0657.1456.730.010.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0666.6766.650.020.02
ElonCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0637.9338.64-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0642.8643.44-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0644.8343.74-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0049.040.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0648.1548.24-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0673.3373.200.030.03
ArizonaP120.060.0689.6689.950.050.04
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.7681.940.040.04
FloridaSEC0.060.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0665.5265.390.020.02
LafayettePat0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
LehighPat0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0646.1547.66-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0653.5752.290.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0660.0060.260.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0542.8642.76-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0550.0049.650.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0525.0024.21-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0563.3363.340.020.01
RichmondA100.060.0560.0061.150.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0551.7253.220.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0560.7160.320.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0550.0050.000.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0561.2961.290.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0583.3383.560.040.04
SMUAmer0.060.0578.5778.590.030.03
VillanovaBE0.060.0593.3393.130.050.05
OklahomaB120.040.0368.9768.870.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0368.9768.960.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.5265.870.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0375.0075.320.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
TexasB120.030.0360.0060.880.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0370.3768.750.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0318.5217.90-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0372.4173.240.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0325.9325.33-0.02-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.033.574.55-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0358.6258.810.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0372.4172.040.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0325.9325.08-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0325.9327.43-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.4370.300.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.89-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0324.1423.74-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0348.0048.71-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0328.5727.75-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0363.3362.470.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.730.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.3372.570.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0339.2940.13-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VCUA100.030.0372.4172.060.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0375.0075.640.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0358.6255.600.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0344.4444.55-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.9276.660.020.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.3363.730.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.8668.400.010.01
IowaB100.030.0366.6767.370.010.01
KansasB120.030.0380.0078.510.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.04-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0358.6256.740.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.9277.700.020.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.0028.96-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0357.1458.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0368.9767.100.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0351.7251.650.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01