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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:118.2
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:320
Current Record:15-5
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:44
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-576.81.71%
23-687.810.15%
22-7100.922.53%
21-8116.429.58%
20-9133.222.14%
19-10149.310.41%
18-11165.32.98%
17-12181.80.46%
16-13199.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UT Arlington (112.2)SBH80-68W100%0.0
11-21Grambling St. (344.2)SWACA67-86W100%0.0
11-24Ohio St. (97.6)B10A74-82W100%0.0
11-27North Carolina Central (310.3)MEACH71-50W100%0.0
12-1Memphis (126.0)AmerA94-68L0%0.0
12-4Jackson St. (205.2)SWACH95-88W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Lafayette (104.2)SBH91-79W100%0.0
12-15Mississippi (129.0)SECA99-80L0%0.0
12-18Southern (176.1)SWACH83-76W100%0.0
12-22Florida Gulf Coast (224.8)ASunA63-66W100%0.0
12-28Prairie View A&M (345.4)SWACH77-58W100%0.0
1-2Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAH87-57W100%0.0
1-7Old Dominion (145.4)CUSAH53-56L0%0.0
1-9Charlotte (231.0)CUSAH93-90W100%0.0
1-14FIU (226.8)CUSAA88-74L0%0.0
1-16Florida Atlantic (275.9)CUSAA63-61L0%0.0
1-23Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAA59-70W100%0.0
1-28UTSA (340.4)CUSAH85-75W100%0.0
1-31UTEP (244.4)CUSAH78-70W100%0.0
2-4Rice (297.3)CUSAA78-90W100%0.0
2-6North Texas (309.6)CUSAA0-077%8.1
2-11Middle Tennessee (79.1)CUSAH0-059%2.4
2-13UAB (93.6)CUSAH0-054%1.2
2-18UTSA (340.4)CUSAA0-089%13.6
2-20UTEP (244.4)CUSAA0-058%2.3
2-25North Texas (309.6)CUSAA0-077%8.1
2-27Rice (297.3)CUSAH0-089%13.1
3-3Marshall (132.8)CUSAA0-041%-2.5
3-5Western Kentucky (165.8)CUSAA0-049%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.3726.1677.3875.4314.4413.31
Southern MissCUSA5.474.2137.5036.33-1.37-1.15
UTEPCUSA2.944.1352.3852.120.140.18
North TexasCUSA0.444.1330.0029.95-0.18-1.66
RiceCUSA2.684.1326.3229.86-1.27-1.66
UTSACUSA2.884.1015.0014.62-2.01-2.90
FIUCUSA2.992.4740.0044.00-0.60-0.30
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.932.4320.0025.75-1.76-1.18
Old DominionCUSA2.812.4352.3860.680.130.52
CharlotteCUSA2.812.4338.1043.59-0.67-0.31
MarshallCUSA0.422.4147.8350.27-0.020.01
UABCUSA0.352.3781.8279.450.221.40
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.352.3770.0069.950.140.95
Western KentuckyCUSA0.352.3747.6247.87-0.02-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB2.862.0568.4271.121.050.87
Grambling St.SWAC2.861.9917.6521.51-1.85-1.13
Jackson St.SWAC2.831.9752.6358.560.150.34
SouthernSWAC2.811.9766.6768.600.940.73
MemphisAmer2.951.9457.1457.170.420.28
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.701.915.0014.49-2.43-1.36
Ohio St.B102.691.8160.8755.930.580.21
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.571.7827.7838.40-1.14-0.41
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.561.7861.1164.300.570.51
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.561.7547.3751.58-0.130.06
MississippiSEC2.561.7561.9054.590.610.16
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.320.3317.3921.76-0.21-0.19
Texas SouthernSWAC0.320.3047.6257.27-0.020.04
TroySB0.320.3020.0023.76-0.19-0.16
Georgia St.SB0.380.3061.1158.300.080.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.310.3033.3334.18-0.10-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.330.2835.0034.93-0.10-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.260.2735.2944.50-0.08-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.260.2726.3233.83-0.12-0.09
Texas St.SB0.240.2741.1840.28-0.04-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.260.2421.7424.60-0.15-0.12
TulaneAmer0.320.1833.3332.41-0.11-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.1875.0073.480.030.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.180.1521.0523.70-0.11-0.08
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1545.0041.83-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.250.1527.2730.43-0.11-0.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.1536.8437.30-0.07-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.240.1545.4541.98-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.1326.0930.33-0.06-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.260.1257.1452.310.040.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1290.0086.120.100.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.190.1240.0044.95-0.04-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.190.1242.8641.75-0.03-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.1260.8759.050.010.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1238.1047.51-0.04-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.1247.3750.51-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.060.1242.8637.19-0.01-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1163.6468.210.030.04
LipscombASun0.120.1021.7427.64-0.07-0.04
North FloridaASun0.120.1068.1869.350.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1031.5833.51-0.05-0.03
StetsonASun0.120.1025.0029.75-0.06-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.060.1023.8125.03-0.03-0.05
ClemsonACC0.130.0963.6462.340.030.02
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0952.3854.240.010.01
OhioMAC0.130.0960.0057.960.030.01
HoustonAmer0.130.0972.7368.010.060.03
FloridaSEC0.120.0968.1867.800.040.03
TexasB120.120.0968.1861.780.040.02
VCUA100.120.0977.2776.780.060.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0950.0046.870.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0910.0015.28-0.05-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.060.0950.0048.260.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0969.5768.670.020.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0982.6181.380.040.05
UCFAmer0.120.0955.0047.170.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.100.0847.8344.51-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0820.8320.11-0.03-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.170.0872.7372.440.080.04
MarylandB100.100.0886.9681.770.080.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0728.5734.73-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0747.6247.86-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0722.7324.28-0.03-0.03
NJITASun0.060.0752.1754.520.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0676.1976.220.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0661.9060.410.030.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0650.0050.860.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0665.0060.810.020.01
MarquetteBE0.130.0665.2256.530.040.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.0610.0014.87-0.10-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0638.1042.99-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.0627.2732.84-0.06-0.02
MassachusettsA100.120.0642.8639.84-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0621.0529.16-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.0647.6252.96-0.010.00
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0681.8281.010.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0652.1747.250.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0669.5770.030.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.0610.5325.37-0.10-0.03
Miami FLACC0.120.0680.9575.640.080.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.5836.16-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6461.810.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0616.6724.27-0.04-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0057.290.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0655.5650.840.010.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0657.1457.940.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0653.3355.180.000.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0633.3332.69-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0640.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.120.0628.5728.88-0.05-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0663.6464.090.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0652.1754.140.000.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0054.590.010.01
SamfordSC0.000.0640.9143.37-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0652.3848.890.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0615.7916.39-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.0645.4547.97-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0673.6870.400.030.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0647.8343.92-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0635.0035.36-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0650.0054.850.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0681.8281.010.040.04
WyomingMWC0.070.0640.9140.46-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.120.0676.1967.350.060.02
ElonCAA0.120.0654.5553.020.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.0666.6760.120.040.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0615.0015.65-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.060.0638.1033.45-0.01-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.068.709.77-0.10-0.05
NebraskaB100.060.0652.1751.560.000.00
WisconsinB100.110.0660.8755.900.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0673.9173.090.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0660.0056.080.010.01
KentuckySEC0.110.0672.7369.690.050.02
MichiganB100.060.0672.7367.980.030.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0636.3630.98-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0666.6763.480.020.01
PurdueB100.110.0682.6178.230.070.03
RutgersB100.050.0622.7320.68-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0690.4885.550.050.04
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0685.7176.030.080.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0614.2916.31-0.08-0.04
TempleAmer0.060.0661.9058.420.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0357.1457.930.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0360.0061.350.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.04-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0344.4446.94-0.01-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0338.1037.53-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0339.1339.48-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0318.7533.17-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0329.4138.47-0.03-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.070.0359.0958.100.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0356.5253.350.010.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0359.0959.470.010.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0357.1457.560.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0363.6465.480.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0322.7326.19-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0050.510.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0345.0044.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0322.7324.85-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0366.6758.760.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0368.1863.250.020.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0368.1865.420.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0354.5555.310.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0381.8277.490.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0347.8348.69-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.060.0381.8278.210.040.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0380.0082.460.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0366.6765.410.020.01
XavierBE0.000.0390.9184.430.000.02
BryantNEC0.060.0326.0927.58-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0357.8954.300.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0326.0925.56-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0352.3853.620.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0345.0042.81-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0368.7574.730.000.01
TCUB120.060.0345.4537.84-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0352.3857.440.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0381.8279.750.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0357.1457.510.010.00
CampbellBSth0.060.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0357.8955.400.010.00
FurmanSC0.060.0354.5553.780.010.00
George MasonA100.060.0336.3635.33-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0356.5253.460.010.00
IndianaB100.050.0382.6177.370.030.02
IowaB100.000.0381.8279.900.000.02
IUPUISum0.060.0341.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0359.0955.550.010.00
LSUSEC0.060.0363.6459.440.020.01
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0345.0043.19-0.01-0.00
MercerSC0.050.0371.4370.600.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0341.6746.85-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0325.0025.48-0.03-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.09-0.04-0.01
OklahomaB120.060.0390.4884.890.050.02
Penn St.B100.050.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0354.5555.990.010.00
RichmondA100.060.0352.3853.680.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0381.8277.440.040.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0372.7368.630.030.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.710.020.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0363.6457.330.020.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0363.6459.950.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0359.0962.730.000.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.01
VMISC0.050.0316.6718.97-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.060.0368.1862.190.020.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0381.8278.720.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0370.0069.360.020.01