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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:122.0
Current RPI:122
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:273
Current Record:21-9
Expected Record:21-9
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:46
Expected OOC SOS:213



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-9122.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UT Arlington (105.0)SBH80-68W100%0.0
11-21Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA67-86W100%0.0
11-24Ohio St. (74.0)B10A74-82W100%0.0
11-27North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACH71-50W100%0.0
12-1Memphis (139.0)AmerA94-68L0%0.0
12-4Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH95-88W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH91-79W100%0.0
12-15Mississippi (96.0)SECA99-80L0%0.0
12-18Southern (186.0)SWACH83-76W100%0.0
12-22Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA63-66W100%0.0
12-28Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH77-58W100%0.0
1-2Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH87-57W100%0.0
1-7Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH53-56L0%0.0
1-9Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH93-90W100%0.0
1-14FIU (270.0)CUSAA88-74L0%0.0
1-16Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAA63-61L0%0.0
1-23Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA59-70W100%0.0
1-28UTSA (347.0)CUSAH85-75W100%0.0
1-31UTEP (215.0)CUSAH78-70W100%0.0
2-4Rice (279.0)CUSAA78-90W100%0.0
2-6North Texas (295.0)CUSAA80-69L0%0.0
2-11Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH73-63W100%0.0
2-13UAB (88.0)CUSAH85-76W100%0.0
2-18UTSA (347.0)CUSAA74-87W100%0.0
2-20UTEP (215.0)CUSAA91-80L0%0.0
2-25North Texas (295.0)CUSAH73-62W100%0.0
2-27Rice (279.0)CUSAH88-69W100%0.0
3-3Marshall (128.0)CUSAA94-97W100%0.0
3-5Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA96-90L0%0.0
3-10Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAN52-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.1426.1473.3973.3912.2312.23
Old DominionCUSA4.074.0760.6160.610.860.86
Southern MissCUSA4.054.0528.0028.00-1.78-1.78
UTEPCUSA4.054.0556.6756.670.540.54
North TexasCUSA4.034.0332.1432.14-1.44-1.44
RiceCUSA4.034.0335.7135.71-1.15-1.15
UTSACUSA3.993.9914.2914.29-2.85-2.85
CharlotteCUSA2.452.4543.7543.75-0.31-0.31
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.452.4520.0020.00-1.47-1.47
Western KentuckyCUSA2.442.4448.3948.39-0.08-0.08
FIUCUSA2.422.4234.4834.48-0.75-0.75
MarshallCUSA2.412.4153.1253.120.150.15
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.382.3873.3373.331.111.11
UABCUSA2.312.3183.3383.331.541.54
UT ArlingtonSB1.971.9770.9770.970.820.82
Jackson St.SWAC1.951.9554.8454.840.190.19
SouthernSWAC1.911.9163.3363.330.510.51
Grambling St.SWAC1.901.9014.8114.81-1.34-1.34
MemphisAmer1.861.8654.5554.550.170.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.861.8623.3323.33-0.99-0.99
Ohio St.B101.751.7562.5062.500.440.44
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.721.7235.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.691.6957.1457.140.240.24
MississippiSEC1.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.360.3622.8622.86-0.20-0.20
Texas SouthernSWAC0.300.3056.2556.250.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.280.2838.7138.71-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.280.2824.1424.14-0.14-0.14
Alabama St.SWAC0.270.2741.3841.38-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.270.2746.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.2535.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.220.2224.2424.24-0.11-0.11
TulaneAmer0.190.1935.2935.29-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1422.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
StetsonASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
AuburnSEC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VCUA100.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
PurdueB100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0382.1482.140.020.02
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01