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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:116.0
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:246
Current SOS:246
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:15-5
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10116.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina (42.0)SECA85-76L0%0.0
11-16Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH87-56W100%0.0
11-19Nebraska (107.0)B10A65-54L0%0.0
11-27Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH74-53W100%0.0
11-30California (53.0)P12A68-59L0%0.0
12-3Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH88-59W100%0.0
12-5Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH98-65W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA91-83L0%0.0
12-13Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH65-52W100%0.0
12-17Grambling St. (317.0)SWACN89-55W100%0.0
12-20Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH78-79L0%0.0
1-1Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA55-79W100%0.0
1-5UTEP (222.0)CUSAH64-44W100%0.0
1-7UTSA (264.0)CUSAH68-69L0%0.0
1-12Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA73-79W100%0.0
1-14Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA63-75W100%0.0
1-19Rice (167.0)CUSAH74-64W100%0.0
1-21North Texas (339.0)CUSAH81-57W100%0.0
1-26UAB (201.0)CUSAA79-70L0%0.0
1-28Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA71-61L0%0.0
2-2Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH76-67W100%0.0
2-4Marshall (112.0)CUSAH94-90W100%0.0
2-9UTEP (222.0)CUSAA61-62W100%0.0
2-11UTSA (264.0)CUSAA66-72W100%0.0
2-16Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH95-69W100%0.0
2-18FIU (338.0)CUSAH77-61W100%0.0
2-23North Texas (339.0)CUSAA67-85W100%0.0
2-25Rice (167.0)CUSAA88-81L0%0.0
3-4Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAH93-65W100%0.0
3-9UAB (201.0)CUSAN69-57W100%0.0
3-10Marshall (112.0)CUSAN77-93L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.1826.1869.4769.4710.1910.19
UTEPCUSA3.993.9948.2848.28-0.14-0.14
RiceCUSA3.983.9865.5265.521.231.23
Southern MissCUSA3.963.9625.9325.93-1.91-1.91
UTSACUSA3.943.9437.9337.93-0.95-0.95
MarshallCUSA3.943.9456.2556.250.490.49
UABCUSA3.883.8850.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA3.883.8823.0823.08-2.09-2.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.452.4587.5087.501.841.84
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.392.3929.6329.63-0.97-0.97
FIUCUSA2.372.3717.8617.86-1.53-1.53
Old DominionCUSA2.372.3763.3363.330.630.63
CharlotteCUSA2.372.3742.8642.86-0.34-0.34
Western KentuckyCUSA2.372.3748.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.851.8536.6736.67-0.49-0.49
Grambling St.SWAC1.801.8044.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Alabama St.SWAC1.801.8024.1424.14-0.93-0.93
Alcorn St.SWAC1.801.8053.5753.570.130.13
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.771.7748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.671.6775.8675.860.860.86
CaliforniaP121.671.6762.5062.500.420.42
South CarolinaSEC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
NebraskaB101.611.6134.4834.48-0.50-0.50
Texas SouthernSWAC0.370.3767.6567.650.130.13
SouthernSWAC0.350.3543.3343.33-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.350.3541.3841.38-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.320.326.906.90-0.28-0.28
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.270.2720.0020.00-0.16-0.16
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.14-0.14
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Oregon St.P120.180.1812.9012.90-0.13-0.13
Texas TechB120.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1636.0036.00-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Ohio St.B100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.130.133.333.33-0.12-0.12
ToledoMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1273.3373.330.060.06
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.100.1058.8258.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
PittsburghACC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.070.0784.8584.850.050.05
AkronMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0278.5778.570.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
USCP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Washington St.P120.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00