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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:159.8
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:128
Current Record:10-9
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:134



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-985.70.47%
19-10103.13.45%
18-11122.611.66%
17-12142.423.07%
16-13161.426.59%
15-14179.320.06%
14-15196.710.36%
13-16213.83.59%
12-17230.50.66%
11-18243.20.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Southeast Missouri St. (242.9)OVCH96-95W100%0.0
11-18Montana St. (220.4)BSkyH71-58W100%0.0
11-21George Mason (225.0)A10N64-77W100%0.0
11-22Evansville (159.2)MVCN61-63W100%0.0
11-29Alabama (40.1)SECA77-74L0%0.0
12-6Stephen F. Austin (123.3)SlndH83-85L0%0.0
12-9Jackson St. (293.7)SWACH91-62W100%0.0
12-12Louisiana Lafayette (61.4)SBH71-75L0%0.0
12-16Texas (43.7)B12A75-60L0%0.0
12-21Alabama St. (343.4)SWACN74-62W100%0.0
12-22Fort Wayne (188.0)SumN85-76W100%0.0
12-28Western Kentucky (45.2)CUSAA69-68L0%0.0
12-30Marshall (100.9)CUSAA78-65L0%0.0
1-4UTSA (249.0)CUSAH76-78L0%0.0
1-6UTEP (284.2)CUSAH97-88W100%0.0
1-11Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAA72-57L0%0.0
1-13UAB (126.7)CUSAA74-62L0%0.0
1-18North Texas (217.6)CUSAH66-65W100%0.0
1-20Rice (321.9)CUSAH69-54W100%0.0
1-27Southern Miss (222.5)CUSAH0-082%10.0
2-1Florida Atlantic (239.7)CUSAA0-066%4.7
2-3FIU (288.5)CUSAA0-066%4.7
2-8Charlotte (302.0)CUSAH0-087%12.3
2-10Old Dominion (74.5)CUSAH0-042%-2.3
2-15UAB (126.7)CUSAH0-046%-1.1
2-17Middle Tennessee (32.6)CUSAH0-036%-3.9
2-22UTEP (284.2)CUSAA0-060%2.7
2-24UTSA (249.0)CUSAA0-055%1.5
3-3Southern Miss (222.5)CUSAA0-063%3.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.3726.1749.3553.65-0.341.91
Southern MissCUSA0.584.1741.1839.31-0.10-0.89
UTEPCUSA2.864.1235.2935.14-0.84-1.22
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.844.1170.5974.201.171.99
UABCUSA2.844.1158.8263.200.501.09
UTSACUSA2.854.1137.5037.15-0.71-1.06
RiceCUSA2.942.4811.7618.31-2.25-1.57
North TexasCUSA2.862.4547.0648.32-0.17-0.08
MarshallCUSA2.852.4566.6762.350.950.60
Western KentuckyCUSA2.852.4566.6769.820.950.97
Old DominionCUSA0.282.3978.9577.410.161.31
FIUCUSA0.302.3935.2935.61-0.09-0.69
CharlotteCUSA0.282.3923.5326.08-0.15-1.14
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.302.3837.5037.83-0.07-0.58
Alabama St.SWAC2.701.7816.6723.42-1.80-0.95
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.771.7844.4445.05-0.31-0.18
Jackson St.SWAC2.701.7841.1844.91-0.48-0.18
EvansvilleMVC2.701.7555.5649.200.30-0.03
Montana St.BSky2.701.7552.9449.350.16-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.701.7578.5778.051.550.98
AlabamaSEC2.701.7566.6757.660.900.27
TexasB122.701.7563.1657.220.710.25
Fort WayneSum2.631.7255.5653.670.290.13
George MasonA102.631.7247.3742.66-0.14-0.25
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.631.7282.3580.761.701.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.2710.0016.77-0.23-0.18
AuburnSEC0.280.2089.4776.990.220.11
TroySB0.070.1838.8944.43-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1857.8966.270.020.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.1872.2258.880.100.03
James MadisonCAA0.140.1825.0028.25-0.07-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.180.0010.26-0.14-0.14
OklahomaB120.150.1777.7868.030.080.06
MississippiSEC0.220.1752.6345.860.01-0.01
RichmondA100.150.1731.5834.35-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.1644.4450.31-0.030.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.1550.0045.850.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.290.1525.0028.02-0.14-0.07
BradleyMVC0.290.1565.0057.890.090.02
Texas St.SB0.220.1557.8950.210.040.00
ChattanoogaSC0.210.1522.2228.57-0.12-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.290.1560.0062.010.060.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.280.1531.5832.71-0.10-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.1536.8444.03-0.06-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.210.1544.4446.03-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.340.1547.0654.68-0.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.280.1535.2940.46-0.08-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.210.1531.5840.82-0.08-0.03
South DakotaSum0.070.1373.6872.400.030.06
LamarSlnd0.070.1250.0054.900.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.1258.8257.130.010.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.127.6920.08-0.14-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.127.1414.82-0.19-0.09
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1227.7831.08-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.230.1226.6729.12-0.11-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.230.1237.5045.24-0.06-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1270.0068.290.060.04
Murray St.OVC0.140.1270.5975.960.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.220.1245.0048.57-0.02-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.1283.3384.250.100.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.210.1255.0052.480.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1261.1151.910.030.00
Austin PeayOVC0.210.1244.4446.01-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.210.1271.4374.670.090.06
IowaB100.220.1247.6243.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.140.1278.9571.750.080.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1217.6527.34-0.09-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.1233.3339.89-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1225.0039.91-0.04-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1220.0040.93-0.04-0.02
VCUA100.070.1160.0059.710.010.02
DenverSum0.140.0933.3336.47-0.05-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.095.8819.39-0.07-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.000.0935.0026.130.00-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.097.6923.24-0.07-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0972.2272.970.030.04
MichiganB100.070.0976.1970.800.030.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.0928.5731.24-0.06-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.0936.8432.75-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.150.0927.7838.12-0.07-0.02
NebraskaB100.150.0963.6459.480.040.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.230.0950.0051.390.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.150.0931.5836.23-0.05-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.140.0923.5328.71-0.07-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0926.3231.48-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.160.0961.1153.190.030.01
BinghamtonAE0.210.0942.1139.93-0.03-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.210.0966.6763.450.070.02
MemphisAmer0.140.0965.0058.540.040.01
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0936.8435.58-0.04-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0968.4254.040.020.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0975.0065.320.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.140.0964.7160.010.040.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0652.9452.670.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0645.0049.280.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0673.6869.660.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.54-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0643.7549.110.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.22-0.01-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0621.0523.520.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0633.3336.93-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0650.0052.500.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.160.0652.9455.030.010.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0655.0053.330.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0666.6766.030.030.02
AkronMAC0.140.0647.0644.92-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.140.0650.0054.180.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.1665.980.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0645.0047.06-0.01-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0610.0019.62-0.12-0.04
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6868.040.030.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0663.6457.610.020.01
MissouriSEC0.090.0666.6763.150.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0678.9576.980.040.03
BuffaloMAC0.070.0672.2274.940.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.150.0662.5058.710.040.01
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0048.980.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.93-0.03-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.550.020.02
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5326.29-0.06-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3746.09-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.76-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.19-0.04-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.200.040.03
Miami FLACC0.070.0677.7870.410.040.02
MontanaBSky0.070.0670.5973.150.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.78-0.03-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0611.1115.30-0.06-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0644.4450.080.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0658.8263.210.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0652.9460.230.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0616.6724.44-0.05-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0637.5033.77-0.02-0.02
USCP120.070.0671.4368.300.030.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0647.3748.770.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.43-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0658.8249.740.01-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0670.0068.210.030.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0615.0020.28-0.05-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0631.5836.43-0.05-0.02
ToledoMAC0.140.0666.6767.670.050.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.0617.6519.29-0.09-0.04
DukeACC0.140.0689.4785.240.110.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0666.6765.390.020.02
MercerSC0.140.0644.4454.87-0.020.01
Saint LouisA100.140.0647.3746.93-0.01-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0666.6768.750.020.02
OhioMAC0.140.0647.0648.43-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0647.3750.940.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0657.8953.280.010.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0673.6871.600.000.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.49-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.130.0657.8946.220.02-0.00
KansasB120.070.0684.2179.760.050.03
LipscombASun0.140.0652.9459.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.140.0683.3381.450.090.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
TCUB120.070.0675.0067.830.030.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.970.030.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0680.0076.040.040.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.030.008.42-0.07-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0321.0525.99-0.04-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0377.7879.160.040.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0342.1145.98-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.070.0360.0052.880.010.00
LongwoodBSth0.090.0316.6716.15-0.06-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0347.0641.38-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0341.1839.140.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.150.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0342.1132.460.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0352.6351.090.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0343.7549.220.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0327.7827.110.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0342.1140.460.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.070.0361.1158.710.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.170.020.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0384.2173.180.050.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0338.8946.050.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.080.030.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.040.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0364.7166.850.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0343.7540.910.00-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0366.6763.130.020.01
San DiegoWCC0.070.0363.1657.530.020.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0357.8953.220.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.76-0.04-0.02
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.250.030.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0356.2557.430.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.790.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.550.050.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.070.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.070.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0317.6534.760.00-0.01
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.810.020.01
PurdueB100.070.0390.4888.390.060.02
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.610.030.01
TempleAmer0.000.0352.6351.740.000.00
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7490.310.060.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0350.0059.430.000.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.270.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.030.01
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.060.050.02
ArizonaP120.070.0380.0078.940.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0368.4264.160.000.01
ButlerBE0.070.0366.6763.070.020.01
BYUWCC0.070.0380.9576.240.040.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.030.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.900.020.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.0380.9583.260.040.02
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.46-0.04-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0378.9569.820.040.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0333.3340.35-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0333.3340.10-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.820.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.930.000.01
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.830.030.01