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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:58.0
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:189
Current Record:24-8
Expected Record:24-8
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-858.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern (223.0)SWACA76-85W100%0.0
11-17Temple (34.0)AmerA82-75L0%0.0
11-21Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH73-64W100%0.0
11-22American (135.0)PatH63-44W100%0.0
11-23Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH76-48W100%0.0
11-28Samford (305.0)SCH77-64W100%0.0
12-2Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA88-99W100%0.0
12-6Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH65-52W100%0.0
12-10Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA94-86L0%0.0
12-14Syracuse (69.0)ACCA71-69L0%0.0
12-18Nicholls St. (321.0)SlndH79-54W100%0.0
12-23North Carolina St. (39.0)ACCA73-65L0%0.0
1-3Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA70-83W100%0.0
1-8UTEP (78.0)CUSAA45-58W100%0.0
1-10UTSA (237.0)CUSAA72-84W100%0.0
1-15UAB (130.0)CUSAH74-71W100%0.0
1-17Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH75-68W100%0.0
1-22North Texas (224.0)CUSAA73-66L0%0.0
1-24Rice (247.0)CUSAA45-58W100%0.0
1-29Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH69-56W100%0.0
1-31Marshall (296.0)CUSAH81-57W100%0.0
2-5UAB (130.0)CUSAA80-60L0%0.0
2-7Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA62-73W100%0.0
2-12Florida Atlantic (303.0)CUSAH65-54W100%0.0
2-14FIU (217.0)CUSAH75-42W100%0.0
2-19Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA82-83W100%0.0
2-21Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA72-53L0%0.0
2-26UTEP (78.0)CUSAH77-60W100%0.0
2-28UTSA (237.0)CUSAH76-66W100%0.0
3-5Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAH72-61W100%0.0
3-12Rice (247.0)CUSAN70-64W100%0.0
3-13UAB (130.0)CUSAN62-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.2326.2380.3080.3015.9015.90
UABCUSA5.415.4153.3353.330.360.36
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.973.9756.2556.250.500.50
UTEPCUSA3.863.8673.3373.331.801.80
Southern MissCUSA3.833.8328.0028.00-1.68-1.68
UTSACUSA3.803.8046.1546.15-0.29-0.29
RiceCUSA3.803.8037.0437.04-0.98-0.98
FIUCUSA2.362.3646.6746.67-0.16-0.16
North TexasCUSA2.342.3439.2939.29-0.50-0.50
Western KentuckyCUSA2.282.2862.0762.070.550.55
CharlotteCUSA2.262.2645.1645.16-0.22-0.22
Old DominionCUSA2.262.2676.6776.671.201.20
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.242.2426.9226.92-1.04-1.04
MarshallCUSA2.232.2331.0331.03-0.85-0.85
Jackson St.SWAC1.791.7935.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Morehead St.OVC1.711.7148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
SouthernSWAC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd1.651.6557.6957.690.250.25
Nicholls St.Slnd1.651.6528.0028.00-0.72-0.72
AmericanPat1.641.6453.1253.120.100.10
PresbyterianBSth1.641.6422.2222.22-0.91-0.91
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.621.6255.1755.170.170.17
North Carolina St.ACC1.611.6159.3859.380.300.30
SamfordSC1.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
SyracuseACC1.591.5956.6756.670.210.21
TempleAmer1.591.5968.7568.750.590.59
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.2043.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1740.7440.74-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
South FloridaAmer0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Georgia St.SB0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Washington St.P120.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
LSUSEC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
DukeACC0.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1530.7730.77-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1486.6786.670.110.11
North CarolinaACC0.140.1468.5768.570.050.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.146.906.90-0.12-0.12
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
TroySB0.140.1429.6329.63-0.06-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.1458.3358.330.020.02
Texas St.SB0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1218.7518.75-0.08-0.08
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1262.9662.960.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
BelmontOVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.110.1142.3142.31-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.100.1081.2581.250.060.06
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
Miami FLACC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.100.000.00-0.10-0.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
ColgatePat0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.08-0.08
LongwoodBSth0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0790.6290.620.060.06
AkronMAC0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0227.2727.27-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0275.8675.860.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01