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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:102.7
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:256
Current SOS:190
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:21-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:222



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-338.00.11%
25-444.00.74%
24-555.43.62%
23-665.59.67%
22-778.517.13%
21-893.421.43%
20-9110.220.84%
19-10127.714.34%
18-11148.77.38%
17-12168.43.42%
16-13189.71.01%
15-14212.60.27%
14-15241.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11South Carolina (19.4)SECA85-76L0%0.0
11-16Alabama St. (327.8)SWACH87-56W100%0.0
11-19Nebraska (86.3)B10A65-54L0%0.0
11-27Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH74-53W100%0.0
11-30California (71.4)P12A68-59L0%0.0
12-3Southeastern Louisiana (232.7)SlndH88-59W100%0.0
12-5Alcorn St. (314.4)SWACH0-097%22.7
12-10Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA0-049%-0.4
12-13Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH0-098%23.8
12-17Grambling St. (339.2)SWACN0-097%23.3
12-20Florida Gulf Coast (85.8)ASunH0-064%4.4
1-1Southern Miss (326.2)CUSAA0-091%15.8
1-5UTEP (290.1)CUSAH0-091%16.0
1-7UTSA (307.7)CUSAH0-093%17.6
1-12Charlotte (177.6)CUSAA0-065%4.6
1-14Old Dominion (95.5)CUSAA0-044%-1.8
1-19Rice (88.9)CUSAH0-063%4.1
1-21North Texas (299.2)CUSAH0-094%18.9
1-26UAB (139.7)CUSAA0-048%-0.6
1-28Middle Tennessee (51.2)CUSAA0-037%-4.1
2-2Western Kentucky (249.3)CUSAH0-089%14.9
2-4Marshall (112.7)CUSAH0-075%8.2
2-9UTEP (290.1)CUSAA0-079%9.7
2-11UTSA (307.7)CUSAA0-083%11.3
2-16Florida Atlantic (280.5)CUSAH0-090%15.3
2-18FIU (262.2)CUSAH0-088%13.9
2-23North Texas (299.2)CUSAA0-085%12.6
2-25Rice (88.9)CUSAA0-043%-2.2
3-4Southern Miss (326.2)CUSAH0-097%22.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA28.4226.1850.0073.660.0012.39
UTEPCUSA0.604.1820.0037.04-0.36-1.08
Southern MissCUSA0.004.1725.0021.99-0.00-2.34
UTSACUSA0.004.1525.0030.82-0.00-1.59
North TexasCUSA0.004.1533.3331.99-0.00-1.49
RiceCUSA0.004.1275.0073.290.001.92
FIUCUSA0.522.5114.2936.86-0.37-0.66
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.4816.6731.12-0.00-0.93
Old DominionCUSA0.002.4571.4368.470.000.90
CharlotteCUSA0.002.4471.4352.070.000.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.522.4237.5035.90-0.13-0.68
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.002.3987.5076.670.001.27
UABCUSA0.002.3950.0060.190.000.49
MarshallCUSA0.002.3871.4355.900.000.28
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.001.9714.2932.28-0.00-0.70
Alabama St.SWAC8.331.9414.2934.85-5.95-0.59
Alcorn St.SWAC0.601.930.0035.52-0.60-0.56
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.9125.0032.47-0.00-0.67
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd9.521.9150.0051.910.000.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC8.931.820.0035.75-8.93-0.52
CaliforniaP128.931.7983.3360.925.950.39
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.7957.1473.340.000.83
South CarolinaSEC8.331.75100.0078.128.330.99
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.001.7271.4364.380.000.50
NebraskaB108.331.7250.0042.930.00-0.24
Jackson St.SWAC0.600.3714.2943.58-0.43-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.340.0013.46-0.00-0.25
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.3350.0066.300.000.11
SouthernSWAC0.000.3340.0058.82-0.000.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.270.0023.69-0.00-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.240.0025.23-0.00-0.12
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1975.0048.030.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1812.5037.99-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1820.0041.92-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1887.5062.040.000.04
Texas St.SB0.000.1850.0043.390.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1825.0022.93-0.00-0.10
South AlabamaSB0.000.1571.4357.970.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1542.8643.60-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1562.5067.390.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.1512.5030.68-0.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.600.1260.0069.120.120.05
LSUSEC0.000.1271.4349.170.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1275.0070.180.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.1287.5075.240.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0020.75-0.00-0.07
Ohio St.B100.000.1287.5068.610.000.04
MichiganB100.520.1275.0066.460.260.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.120.0039.53-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1266.6757.300.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1250.0041.540.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1225.0055.33-0.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.1250.0060.620.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1237.5047.91-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.600.1012.5023.93-0.45-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.000.0944.4441.30-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC1.190.0971.4360.540.510.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0957.1459.280.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0912.5034.79-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.24-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.520.0925.0030.23-0.26-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0975.0054.490.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0955.5658.610.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.520.0912.5023.75-0.39-0.05
RutgersB100.000.0985.7145.370.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0058.040.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0916.6744.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0957.1471.520.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0925.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.380.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0940.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0942.8637.34-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0975.0061.490.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0942.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0966.6740.030.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0975.0049.180.00-0.00
TroySB0.520.0942.8636.19-0.07-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0957.1452.030.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0048.500.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0975.0059.790.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.330.000.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.0787.5065.250.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0650.0043.560.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0040.600.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.33-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.58-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0687.5059.330.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.600.0685.7162.990.430.02
George WashingtonA100.600.0655.5641.690.07-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.520.060.0027.12-0.52-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.39-0.00-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.61-0.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5068.020.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.170.000.02
ClemsonACC0.600.0671.4354.860.260.01
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
UCLAP120.600.06100.0086.690.600.04
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.040.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.520.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.450.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.560.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0640.0041.12-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0650.0046.240.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0650.0064.350.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.370.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0385.7153.560.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0362.5043.220.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.600.0357.1429.790.09-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0056.590.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
UMBCAE0.600.0380.0054.540.360.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0322.2221.23-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.600.0375.0086.710.300.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.520.0328.5733.77-0.22-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.83-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0076.630.000.02
DaytonA100.600.0371.4373.490.260.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.490.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.030.0022.01-0.60-0.02
South DakotaSum0.600.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
TCUB120.520.03100.0061.680.520.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0371.4373.040.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.360.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.520.0337.5047.37-0.13-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.520.0375.0070.620.260.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0061.240.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.600.0325.0039.59-0.30-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.520.0371.4366.700.220.01
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.600.0350.0054.070.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.02
VermontAE0.520.0362.5071.320.130.01
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.01-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.600.0366.6754.050.200.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.74-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.11-0.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00