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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:62.0
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:192
Current Record:26-7
Expected Record:26-7
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC Record:11-3
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-762.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Saint Mary's (61.0)WCCA83-70L0%0.0
11-20Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA57-94W100%0.0
11-25UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCN62-99W100%0.0
11-26UIC (315.0)HorzN78-103W100%0.0
11-27St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10N72-76W100%0.0
12-1Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA61-72W100%0.0
12-4Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH80-89L0%0.0
12-7Southern (171.0)SWACH69-50W100%0.0
12-11Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH93-71W100%0.0
12-14Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12N70-55L0%0.0
12-17McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH64-50W100%0.0
12-22Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA61-83W100%0.0
12-30Oklahoma (26.0)B12A98-102W100%0.0
1-4Longwood (337.0)BSthH126-52W100%0.0
1-9Florida Atlantic (270.0)CUSAH84-64W100%0.0
1-11FIU (202.0)CUSAH85-51W100%0.0
1-16Tulane (223.0)CUSAA45-73W100%0.0
1-19Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA80-71L0%0.0
1-23Charlotte (151.0)CUSAH80-60W100%0.0
1-25Marshall (276.0)CUSAH98-77W100%0.0
1-30UTEP (103.0)CUSAA89-79L0%0.0
2-1UTSA (306.0)CUSAA72-87W100%0.0
2-6Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH66-61W100%0.0
2-8North Texas (195.0)CUSAH90-75W100%0.0
2-15Rice (299.0)CUSAH85-46W100%0.0
2-20East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA75-68L0%0.0
2-22Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA66-71W100%0.0
2-27Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH55-39W100%0.0
3-2UAB (152.0)CUSAA58-67W100%0.0
3-6Rice (299.0)CUSAA48-70W100%0.0
3-13Charlotte (151.0)CUSAN86-65W100%0.0
3-14Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAN88-70W100%0.0
3-15Tulsa (73.0)CUSAN60-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA26.0426.0481.0581.0516.1716.17
TulsaCUSA3.563.5664.5264.521.031.03
Southern MissCUSA3.533.5382.7682.762.312.31
CharlotteCUSA3.513.5158.6258.620.600.60
RiceCUSA3.483.4819.2319.23-2.14-2.14
North TexasCUSA2.142.1446.4346.43-0.15-0.15
TulaneCUSA2.142.1451.6151.610.070.07
UTEPCUSA2.102.1066.6766.670.700.70
East CarolinaCUSA2.102.1042.8642.86-0.30-0.30
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.092.0973.3373.330.970.97
MarshallCUSA2.062.0630.0030.00-0.83-0.83
Old DominionCUSA2.042.0450.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA2.042.0457.1457.140.290.29
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.022.0227.5927.59-0.90-0.90
UTSACUSA2.012.0123.0823.08-1.08-1.08
FIUCUSA1.991.9948.1548.15-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd1.681.6850.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC1.661.6636.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.651.6563.3363.330.440.44
OklahomaB121.631.6374.1974.190.790.79
Central ArkansasSlnd1.631.6325.0025.00-0.81-0.81
McNeese St.Slnd1.621.6226.9226.92-0.75-0.75
SouthernSWAC1.611.6157.1457.140.230.23
Louisiana MonroeSB1.591.5936.0036.00-0.45-0.45
Oklahoma St.B121.561.5662.5062.500.390.39
UNC GreensboroSC1.541.5439.2939.29-0.33-0.33
UICHorz1.521.5214.2914.29-1.08-1.08
LongwoodBSth1.521.5214.8114.81-1.07-1.07
Saint Mary'sWCC1.521.5264.5264.520.440.44
St. BonaventureA101.521.5254.8454.840.150.15
Georgia St.SB0.310.3174.1974.190.150.15
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.2843.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.250.2553.5753.570.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.250.2514.8114.81-0.17-0.17
South AlabamaSB0.230.2328.5728.57-0.10-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.2293.1093.100.190.19
Oral RobertsSlnd0.220.2244.8344.83-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Western KentuckySB0.200.2061.2961.290.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.200.2046.1546.15-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
BaylorB120.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.190.1930.7730.77-0.07-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
KansasB120.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
TroySB0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1520.6920.69-0.09-0.09
TexasB120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
West VirginiaB120.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
ElonSC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.130.1314.8114.81-0.09-0.09
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1341.1841.18-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
LSUSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.100.1019.2319.23-0.06-0.06
DavidsonSC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
LouisvilleAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Green BayHorz0.100.1077.7877.780.050.05
George MasonA100.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
HarvardIvy0.080.0886.2186.210.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
La SalleA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MaineAE0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
NJITind0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
PurdueB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01