Louisiana Tech

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	204.7
Current RPI:	190
Expected SOS:	172
Current SOS:	143
Current Record:	9-12
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	3-5
Expected Conf Record:	5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.78%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	8-7
Expected OOC RPI:	197
Expected OOC SOS:	256

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	126.5	0.02%
16-13	142.9	0.65%
15-14	161.2	4.10%
14-15	179.6	16.74%
13-16	198.4	31.12%
12-17	215.3	30.12%
11-18	231.7	14.01%
10-19	247.9	2.99%
9-20	262.4	0.24%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-19	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	A	68-61	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Maryland Eastern Shore (319.1)	MEAC	N	73-54	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Portland St. (207.8)	BSky	N	66-48	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	73-58	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Southeastern Louisiana (326.2)	Slnd	A	72-69	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	71-73	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	94-93	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	A	78-62	L	0%	0.0
12-14	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	H	60-58	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	71-68	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	H	56-53	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Arkansas (65.9)	SEC	A	77-63	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	A	73-65	L	0%	0.0
1-7	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	H	73-83	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	88-90	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	H	65-69	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	A	70-74	W	100%	0.0
1-21	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	A	67-71	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	59-58	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	H	63-65	L	0%	0.0
2-4	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	A	83-72	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Utah St. (132.3)	WAC	A	0-0		18%	-10.2
2-11	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	0-0		21%	-8.7
2-16	North Dakota (266.8)	GWC	H	0-0		73%	6.6
2-18	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	H	0-0		86%	11.7
2-23	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	H	0-0		74%	6.9
2-25	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	H	0-0		52%	0.4
3-1	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	0-0		23%	-7.9
3-3	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	A	0-0		14%	-11.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Tech	WAC	26.28	26.30	43.16	43.30	-3.60	-3.53
New Mexico St.	WAC	5.27	4.26	66.67	66.68	1.76	1.42
Fresno St.	WAC	2.92	4.20	40.91	44.96	-0.53	-0.42
Utah St.	WAC	2.93	4.20	47.83	50.20	-0.13	0.02
Idaho	WAC	2.86	4.19	45.00	48.14	-0.29	-0.16
San Jose St.	WAC	2.81	4.16	28.57	27.97	-1.21	-1.83
Hawaii	WAC	2.81	4.16	60.00	55.34	0.56	0.44
Nevada	WAC	2.86	4.16	80.00	75.15	1.72	2.09
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.67	2.04	57.89	56.49	0.42	0.27
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.67	2.04	43.75	44.32	-0.33	-0.23
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.67	2.01	23.53	26.76	-1.41	-0.93
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.31	1.95	27.78	30.50	-0.14	-0.76
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.50	1.91	75.00	75.08	1.25	0.96
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.66	1.90	85.00	81.55	1.86	1.20
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.66	1.88	45.45	45.83	-0.24	-0.16
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.61	1.85	9.09	9.32	-2.14	-1.50
Portland St.	BSky	2.50	1.85	40.00	43.79	-0.50	-0.23
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.48	1.84	35.00	35.64	-0.75	-0.53
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.49	1.79	21.05	20.70	-1.44	-1.05
Wyoming	MWC	2.50	1.79	75.00	69.65	1.25	0.70
Arkansas	SEC	2.45	1.76	68.18	63.99	0.89	0.49
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	1.72	33.33	41.89	-0.00	-0.28
Northeastern	CAA	2.38	1.72	50.00	50.29	0.00	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.27	0.42	23.53	33.28	-0.14	-0.14
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.36	0.35	25.00	23.75	-0.18	-0.18
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.37	0.33	47.83	47.87	-0.02	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.22	0.31	57.14	60.75	0.03	0.07
Pacific	BW	0.27	0.30	35.00	37.47	-0.08	-0.08
Lamar	Slnd	0.25	0.29	61.90	67.23	0.06	0.10
Montana	BSky	0.23	0.28	70.00	73.28	0.09	0.13
Denver	SB	0.37	0.27	70.83	72.23	0.16	0.12
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.25	33.33	33.88	-0.07	-0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.22	0.25	82.61	81.44	0.14	0.16
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.30	0.25	18.18	21.13	-0.19	-0.14
Utah Valley	GWC	0.27	0.25	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.22	0.24	42.86	41.13	-0.03	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.33	0.24	43.48	43.31	-0.04	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.22	30.00	33.20	-0.03	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.26	0.21	81.82	81.03	0.17	0.13
Weber St.	BSky	0.22	0.21	80.00	76.84	0.13	0.11
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	26.32	29.79	-0.09	-0.08
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.19	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	22.22	27.62	-0.10	-0.08
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.18	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.22	0.18	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.18	0.00	5.37	-0.17	-0.16
Tulsa	CUSA	0.29	0.18	60.87	59.05	0.06	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.16	0.18	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.17	78.26	72.34	0.12	0.08
Bradley	MVC	0.17	0.16	24.00	24.86	-0.09	-0.08
Arkansas St.	SB	0.16	0.15	37.50	38.33	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.17	0.15	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.15	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.18	0.15	56.52	48.81	0.02	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.22	0.15	30.00	31.54	-0.09	-0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.17	0.15	30.43	31.43	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.22	0.15	63.64	56.71	0.06	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.13	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.12	66.67	60.80	0.06	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.12	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.12	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.17	0.12	61.90	58.59	0.04	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.12	35.00	35.26	-0.05	-0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.12	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.12	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.12	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.12	56.52	53.77	0.02	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.10	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.10	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.09	34.78	34.48	-0.05	-0.03
California	P12	0.12	0.09	75.00	74.61	0.06	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.12	0.09	66.67	69.69	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.09	33.33	37.25	-0.04	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.09	63.64	63.16	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.09	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.09	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.09	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.00	0.09	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.09	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.09	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.09	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.09	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.09	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.17	0.09	69.57	71.51	0.07	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.09	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.09	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.09	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.16	0.09	17.39	24.41	-0.10	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.09	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.09	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.09	21.74	24.58	-0.06	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.00	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.00	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.00	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.00	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.07	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.00	0.07	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.00	0.07	4.35	9.66	-0.00	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.04	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.00	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.08	-0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.06	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.04
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.10	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.04	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.06	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.00	0.06	55.56	58.01	0.00	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.06	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.00	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.00	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.03	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.03	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.06	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.05	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.03	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.05	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.04	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.03	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.06	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.00	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.00	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.04	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01