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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Louisiana Tech

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:75.1
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:186
Current SOS:274
Current Record:4-1
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
29-119.00.01%
28-220.50.04%
27-325.60.46%
26-432.01.76%
25-538.05.11%
24-647.311.00%
23-756.817.07%
22-868.619.69%
21-981.717.72%
20-1095.412.45%
19-11110.68.61%
18-12125.74.03%
17-13146.61.32%
16-14162.60.57%
15-15182.00.13%
14-16206.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southern (302.0)SWACA76-85W100%0.0
11-17Temple (136.3)AmerA82-75L0%0.0
11-21Morehead St. (135.8)OVCH73-64W100%0.0
11-22American (108.4)PatH63-44W100%0.0
11-23Presbyterian (319.3)BSthH76-48W100%0.0
11-28Samford (297.5)SCH0-095%20.1
12-2Northwestern St. (194.2)SlndA0-069%5.8
12-6Jackson St. (285.7)SWACH0-094%18.7
12-10Louisiana Lafayette (187.0)SBA0-066%4.8
12-14Syracuse (34.5)ACCA0-018%-11.0
12-18Nicholls St. (293.7)SlndH0-096%20.4
12-23North Carolina St. (35.2)ACCA0-023%-8.8
1-3Southern Miss (155.5)CUSAA0-062%3.5
1-8UTEP (95.4)CUSAA0-046%-1.1
1-10UTSA (296.6)CUSAA0-082%10.9
1-15UAB (209.5)CUSAH0-086%13.0
1-17Middle Tennessee (167.0)CUSAH0-082%10.8
1-22North Texas (225.4)CUSAA0-075%8.0
1-24Rice (273.6)CUSAA0-082%10.8
1-29Western Kentucky (175.5)CUSAH0-083%11.4
1-31Marshall (190.0)CUSAH0-083%11.4
2-5UAB (209.5)CUSAA0-069%5.9
2-7Middle Tennessee (167.0)CUSAA0-062%3.7
2-12Florida Atlantic (245.9)CUSAH0-089%14.5
2-14FIU (238.9)CUSAH0-091%15.8
2-19Charlotte (75.4)CUSAA0-039%-3.5
2-21Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAA0-040%-3.2
2-26UTEP (95.4)CUSAH0-069%6.0
2-28UTSA (296.6)CUSAH0-093%18.1
3-5Southern Miss (155.5)CUSAH0-081%10.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Louisiana TechCUSA30.1726.1884.2175.9420.6413.59
Southern MissCUSA0.004.0766.6753.580.000.29
UABCUSA0.004.0420.0039.10-0.00-0.88
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.254.0266.6751.800.420.14
UTEPCUSA0.003.99100.0071.370.001.71
UTSACUSA0.003.9933.3331.97-0.00-1.44
North TexasCUSA0.002.4275.0039.690.00-0.50
RiceCUSA0.002.3825.0029.04-0.00-1.00
FIUCUSA0.002.3833.3338.72-0.00-0.54
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.002.370.0040.47-0.00-0.45
MarshallCUSA0.832.3550.0046.480.00-0.17
CharlotteCUSA0.002.3260.0067.590.000.82
Old DominionCUSA0.002.3280.0075.380.001.18
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.3140.0046.10-0.00-0.18
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.9020.0044.62-0.00-0.20
Morehead St.OVC12.081.8140.0060.90-2.420.40
SouthernSWAC10.001.780.0036.78-10.00-0.47
Nicholls St.Slnd0.001.760.0031.67-0.00-0.65
Northwestern St.Slnd0.001.760.0051.33-0.000.05
AmericanPat13.081.7580.0061.597.850.41
PresbyterianBSth11.671.750.0024.39-11.67-0.90
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.001.7325.0053.09-0.000.11
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.72100.0064.440.000.50
SamfordSC0.001.7033.3337.07-0.00-0.44
TempleAmer10.831.6950.0048.830.00-0.04
SyracuseACC0.001.6980.0067.480.000.59
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.2020.0035.95-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.180.0040.20-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1825.0043.61-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.180.0040.56-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.180.0033.90-0.00-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1740.0054.85-0.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.830.17100.0062.000.830.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.1675.0055.470.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.160.0047.66-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.160.0022.17-0.00-0.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.16100.0052.770.000.01
TroySB0.000.150.0044.27-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1560.0068.290.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1520.0050.32-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.1560.0056.260.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1480.0075.550.000.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0015.46-0.00-0.10
Wake ForestACC0.000.1466.6751.440.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0078.390.000.08
DukeACC2.250.14100.0083.322.250.09
North CarolinaACC0.000.1480.0074.090.000.07
New OrleansSlnd0.000.130.0035.74-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1325.0068.20-0.000.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1333.3352.29-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1250.0070.920.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1250.0032.470.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.1225.0022.65-0.00-0.07
Texas St.SB0.000.1266.6748.060.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.1233.3367.57-0.000.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1225.0053.73-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0025.08-0.00-0.06
WoffordSC0.000.1180.0077.100.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.110.0032.17-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.110.0063.05-0.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1116.6732.00-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.110.0020.98-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0041.21-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0025.17-0.00-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1160.0035.980.00-0.03
TulaneAmer1.250.1166.6739.850.42-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1160.0057.910.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.11100.0078.880.000.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.100.0023.72-0.00-0.05
LamarSlnd0.000.1025.0036.27-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.09100.0087.590.000.07
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0035.96-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0966.6753.030.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0950.0042.050.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.09100.0057.070.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0036.05-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0051.380.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0950.0054.380.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0960.0037.710.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.09100.0060.400.000.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0028.00-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0950.0028.400.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0920.0039.02-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0066.680.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0925.0031.20-0.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0950.0064.460.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0825.0035.86-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0866.6741.780.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0866.6758.150.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0860.0055.660.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0833.3329.78-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0820.0039.05-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.08100.0064.010.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0840.0031.76-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0840.0038.03-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0860.0050.620.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0875.0044.850.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0073.330.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0030.50-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0065.020.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.690.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0675.0045.180.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0076.220.000.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0633.3363.17-0.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0036.57-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0056.960.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0620.0029.36-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.33-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0047.410.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0620.0037.69-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0625.0046.52-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0666.6756.430.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0016.54-0.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.06100.0058.380.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0633.3353.65-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.060.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0055.000.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0666.6741.200.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0650.0055.020.000.01
MississippiSEC1.250.0675.0053.040.620.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.700.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.41-0.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0640.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0660.0068.620.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0062.400.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0625.0039.20-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0036.580.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0044.60-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0683.3348.340.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0052.250.000.00
UNLVMWC1.830.0675.0051.700.920.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0068.860.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.06100.0069.590.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0625.0053.47-0.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0633.3335.76-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
LafayettePat0.000.0660.0061.400.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0620.0041.82-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.14-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0030.56-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.25-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0047.99-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.830.0516.6745.35-0.56-0.01
La SalleA100.000.05100.0056.910.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.050.0028.59-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0583.3368.400.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0063.970.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0575.0069.780.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0540.0038.97-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0560.0068.830.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0583.3369.110.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0550.0065.590.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0075.980.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0380.0070.540.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0366.6758.390.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.03100.0079.050.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.890.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0366.6773.130.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0052.73-0.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0075.130.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0059.990.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.0018.96-0.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0061.500.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4356.020.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.440.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0061.130.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0340.0038.51-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0069.490.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0340.0037.90-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0325.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0019.02-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0380.0072.320.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0375.0078.500.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.710.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.15-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0039.34-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.590.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0340.0033.19-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0033.42-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0043.27-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0375.0057.260.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0048.990.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0316.6730.56-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3337.74-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0375.0065.610.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.17-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.700.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.830.0325.0045.71-0.42-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0320.0042.43-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0366.6747.100.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.390.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0380.0070.550.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0340.0053.54-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0342.8641.73-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6764.030.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0023.91-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0375.0069.240.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.0063.370.000.01
IowaB100.000.0366.6765.220.000.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0054.55-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0333.3360.46-0.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
PennIvy1.000.030.0023.53-1.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.070.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0056.410.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6746.480.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0057.880.000.00