Louisiana Tech

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	53.0
Current RPI:	53
Expected SOS:	191
Current SOS:	191
Current Record:	25-6
Expected Record:	25-6
Current Conf Record:	16-3
Expected Conf Record:	16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-2
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	60
Expected OOC SOS:	223

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-6	53.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Texas A&M (102.0)	SEC	A	71-59	L	0%
11-14	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	70-52	W	100%
11-18	Troy (279.0)	SB	N	46-70	W	100%
11-19	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	N	67-63	W	100%
11-20	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	63-71	W	100%
11-24	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	68-52	W	100%
11-28	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	99-62	W	100%
11-30	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	A	68-86	W	100%
12-4	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	89-83	L	0%
12-8	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	65-55	W	100%
12-12	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	80-72	L	0%
12-17	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	73-75	W	100%
12-29	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	68-60	W	100%
12-31	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	81-72	W	100%
1-5	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	52-55	W	100%
1-10	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	67-84	W	100%
1-12	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	71-73	W	100%
1-17	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	72-66	W	100%
1-19	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	78-71	W	100%
1-24	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	54-76	W	100%
1-26	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	48-51	W	100%
2-2	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	64-51	W	100%
2-7	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	74-49	W	100%
2-9	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	84-69	W	100%
2-14	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	58-64	W	100%
2-16	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	61-67	W	100%
2-28	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	84-61	W	100%
3-2	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	88-61	W	100%
3-7	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	78-60	L	0%
3-9	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	78-54	L	0%
3-14	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	N	67-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Tech	WAC	26.45	26.45	85.61	85.61	18.84	18.84
Texas San Antonio	WAC	5.74	5.74	31.03	31.03	-2.18	-2.18
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.34	4.34	70.97	70.97	1.82	1.82
Texas Arlington	WAC	4.30	4.30	63.33	63.33	1.15	1.15
Texas St.	WAC	4.29	4.29	35.48	35.48	-1.24	-1.24
Denver	WAC	4.19	4.19	71.43	71.43	1.80	1.80
Utah St.	WAC	4.17	4.17	71.43	71.43	1.79	1.79
Idaho	WAC	4.16	4.16	40.74	40.74	-0.77	-0.77
Seattle	WAC	4.16	4.16	25.93	25.93	-2.00	-2.00
San Jose St.	WAC	4.11	4.11	30.77	30.77	-1.58	-1.58
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	3.33	3.33	55.17	55.17	0.34	0.34
Troy	SB	1.88	1.88	37.50	37.50	-0.47	-0.47
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.86	1.86	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.79	1.79	15.38	15.38	-1.24	-1.24
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.78	1.78	37.04	37.04	-0.46	-0.46
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.75	1.75	69.23	69.23	0.67	0.67
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.74	1.74	74.19	74.19	0.84	0.84
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.72	1.72	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	1.67	1.67	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Chattanooga	SC	1.66	1.66	37.93	37.93	-0.40	-0.40
Georgia St.	CAA	1.66	1.66	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.38	0.38	17.86	17.86	-0.24	-0.24
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.33	0.33	30.00	30.00	-0.13	-0.13
North Texas	SB	0.29	0.29	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.29	0.29	37.50	37.50	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.29	0.29	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	SB	0.27	0.27	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.26	0.26	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.26	0.26	85.19	85.19	0.18	0.18
Arkansas St.	SB	0.24	0.24	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.22	0.22	9.68	9.68	-0.18	-0.18
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.22	0.22	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.21	0.21	84.85	84.85	0.15	0.15
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.20	0.20	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.17	0.17	18.18	18.18	-0.11	-0.11
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.13	0.13	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00