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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:74.7
Current RPI:94
Expected SOS:116
Current SOS:57
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:54
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-317.60.07%
23-421.60.40%
22-527.82.22%
21-635.15.84%
20-745.212.10%
19-855.717.17%
18-969.019.77%
17-1084.117.96%
16-11100.412.38%
15-12117.97.13%
14-13136.83.23%
13-14158.01.28%
12-15173.90.31%
11-16210.50.10%
10-17221.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Murray St. (139.5)OVCA73-70L0%0.0
11-16Fort Wayne (119.2)SumH75-57W100%0.0
11-21TCU (53.5)B12A80-71L0%0.0
11-30IUPUI (194.4)SumH77-63W100%0.0
12-3New Mexico (84.5)MWCH0-072%7.0
12-7Tulsa (186.7)AmerA0-071%6.7
12-10Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH0-091%15.8
12-18Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10H0-077%9.0
12-22Hawaii (274.4)BWA0-078%9.2
12-29Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-085%12.7
1-1Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-060%2.9
1-4Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-068%5.6
1-7Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-058%2.5
1-11Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-065%4.8
1-14Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-025%-8.0
1-18Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-084%11.8
1-21Drake (306.7)MVCH0-095%19.3
1-25Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH0-076%8.7
1-29Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-071%6.5
2-1Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCH0-066%4.8
2-4Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-012%-14.2
2-7Drake (306.7)MVCA0-086%13.2
2-11Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-093%18.0
2-15Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-048%-0.6
2-19Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-078%9.1
2-22Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-082%11.0
2-25Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC28.8726.4450.0067.380.009.19
Southern IllinoisMVC0.894.7950.0048.130.00-0.18
Wichita St.MVC0.004.7671.4386.360.003.46
BradleyMVC0.004.7650.0030.550.00-1.85
EvansvilleMVC0.004.7533.3341.75-0.00-0.78
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.7566.6756.120.000.58
Indiana St.MVC0.004.7233.3347.85-0.00-0.20
Missouri St.MVC0.004.7275.0066.670.001.57
DrakeMVC0.004.720.0022.21-0.00-2.62
Northern IowaMVC0.004.7240.0058.49-0.000.80
Murray St.OVC12.502.0433.3360.49-4.170.43
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.9875.0055.930.000.23
IUPUISum12.501.9233.3349.49-4.17-0.02
Fort WayneSum12.501.9280.0073.667.500.91
Saint Joseph'sA100.001.9250.0047.610.00-0.09
TCUB1212.501.91100.0058.0812.500.31
TulsaAmer0.001.9160.0039.580.00-0.40
HawaiiBW0.001.8550.0052.090.000.08
New MexicoMWC0.001.8571.4359.730.000.36
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.3614.2937.52-0.00-0.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.3250.0038.430.00-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.300.0019.30-0.00-0.18
Austin PeayOVC1.040.2640.0041.65-0.21-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.890.2657.1440.590.13-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2650.0043.490.00-0.03
South DakotaSum0.000.2057.1447.220.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.2050.0061.810.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC1.040.1957.1447.320.15-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1971.4368.970.000.07
OklahomaB120.000.1983.3351.920.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.1985.7175.950.000.10
George MasonA100.000.1657.1442.940.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1650.0052.330.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1671.4355.750.000.02
ToledoMAC0.000.1642.8650.36-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.1671.4346.010.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1683.3356.560.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1533.3326.75-0.00-0.07
UNLVMWC1.040.1571.4349.590.45-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.1457.1448.410.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.1333.3341.11-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0022.69-0.00-0.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.130.0039.35-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.000.13100.0074.800.000.07
UMKCWAC0.890.1371.4356.050.380.02
DePaulBE0.000.1380.0035.960.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1320.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1360.0039.610.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1360.0048.590.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0032.39-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.130.0038.35-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1342.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1385.7174.430.000.06
Boise St.MWC0.000.1350.0058.980.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0017.30-0.00-0.08
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1375.0074.990.000.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.1350.0053.560.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1283.3361.490.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.1275.0070.470.000.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1016.6743.29-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.1085.7180.010.000.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.040.100.0024.77-1.04-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.100.0024.25-0.00-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.890.1042.8646.78-0.13-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1057.1469.300.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.890.100.0013.30-0.89-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.890.1033.3343.64-0.30-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.890.1085.7173.010.640.04
ArkansasSEC1.040.1083.3362.840.690.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0950.0042.710.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0971.4350.570.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0957.1467.020.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.090.0033.58-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0733.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0716.6730.02-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0054.690.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.44-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0043.310.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0720.0034.39-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.070.0019.51-0.00-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0033.010.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0063.95-0.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0757.1436.050.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0785.7180.960.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0775.0047.510.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0783.3376.370.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
IowaB100.000.0742.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.070.0042.55-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0785.7159.740.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3353.29-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6732.240.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0714.2926.81-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0783.3374.620.000.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0614.2928.66-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0059.100.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0650.0036.820.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0685.7176.170.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0671.4368.100.000.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.03
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
WashingtonP122.080.0657.1452.630.300.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0416.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0471.4354.520.000.00
TroySB0.000.0433.3332.23-0.00-0.01
IndianaB101.040.0383.3375.060.690.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE1.040.0325.0040.81-0.52-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3338.76-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.890.0350.0055.850.000.00
Green BayHorz0.890.0333.3348.71-0.30-0.00
HowardMEAC0.890.030.0038.26-0.89-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.01
MarquetteBE0.890.0371.4363.090.380.01
MichiganB100.890.0371.4366.530.380.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0023.26-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0056.71-0.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC1.040.0314.2934.56-0.74-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.47-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01