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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:121.4
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:104
Current SOS:136
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-418.50.02%
22-525.60.14%
21-629.30.34%
20-742.30.99%
19-853.12.92%
18-966.16.36%
17-1081.011.37%
16-1196.415.51%
15-12115.017.73%
14-13133.616.84%
13-14154.012.58%
12-15174.08.13%
11-16194.84.10%
10-17212.31.94%
9-18232.00.73%
8-19247.20.24%
7-20280.80.04%
6-21271.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Utah St. (106.1)MWCH55-60L0%0.0
11-21Weber St. (183.0)BSkyN64-73W100%0.0
11-29Youngstown St. (276.3)HorzH0-082%11.0
12-2VCU (21.2)A10H0-031%-6.0
12-7UAB (197.0)CUSAA0-051%0.2
12-14DePaul (180.2)BEA0-047%-1.0
12-17Tennessee Martin (295.0)OVCH0-090%15.6
12-20Murray St. (115.7)OVCA0-031%-5.8
12-22IPFW (152.8)SumH0-063%3.9
12-31Indiana St. (158.4)MVCH0-068%5.5
1-4Wichita St. (16.8)MVCA0-011%-14.8
1-7Drake (256.1)MVCH0-084%12.0
1-11Missouri St. (115.1)MVCA0-037%-4.0
1-14Indiana St. (158.4)MVCA0-044%-1.7
1-17Bradley (283.9)MVCH0-087%13.6
1-20Drake (256.1)MVCA0-066%4.8
1-25Northern Iowa (63.2)MVCH0-048%-0.6
1-28Missouri St. (115.1)MVCH0-060%3.2
1-31Loyola Chicago (241.1)MVCA0-061%3.4
2-3Evansville (102.7)MVCH0-058%2.4
2-7Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCA0-047%-0.9
2-11Northern Iowa (63.2)MVCA0-026%-7.7
2-14Wichita St. (16.8)MVCH0-026%-7.6
2-18Bradley (283.9)MVCA0-070%6.4
2-21Loyola Chicago (241.1)MVCH0-081%10.6
2-25Southern Illinois (172.8)MVCH0-070%6.3
2-28Evansville (102.7)MVCA0-034%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC35.4226.4941.6753.31-5.901.76
DrakeMVC0.004.830.0029.09-0.00-2.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.8133.3352.08-0.000.20
Northern IowaMVC0.004.80100.0069.440.001.87
EvansvilleMVC0.004.79100.0064.170.001.36
BradleyMVC0.004.760.0025.65-0.00-2.32
Indiana St.MVC0.004.7650.0051.900.000.18
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.760.0039.04-0.00-1.04
Missouri St.MVC0.004.76100.0058.130.000.77
Wichita St.MVC0.004.76100.0084.310.003.27
Murray St.OVC0.002.1150.0072.400.000.95
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.9250.0036.890.00-0.50
DePaulBE0.001.92100.0037.250.00-0.49
VCUA100.001.92100.0074.960.000.96
Utah St.MWC31.251.89100.0063.0531.250.49
Weber St.BSky29.171.880.0057.92-29.170.30
IPFWSum0.001.8550.0066.510.000.61
UABCUSA0.001.850.0043.18-0.00-0.25
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.850.0036.82-0.00-0.49
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.3333.3336.31-0.00-0.09
IUPUISum0.000.2733.3330.78-0.00-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.270.0034.26-0.00-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.270.0041.63-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.260.0029.88-0.00-0.11
Saint LouisA100.000.26100.0066.070.000.08
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2533.3349.79-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.230.0035.17-0.00-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2066.6752.470.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.190.0027.72-0.00-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1733.3349.18-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.1750.0072.160.000.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1733.3335.37-0.00-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.160.0043.21-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.16100.0054.180.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.16100.0067.860.000.06
Southern UtahBSky0.000.140.0024.22-0.00-0.07
Texas TechB120.000.1450.0043.560.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1466.6752.000.000.01
DenverSum0.000.1450.0062.440.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0055.45-0.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.130.0065.36-0.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1350.0052.540.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.130.0032.99-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.13100.0057.560.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.130.0065.86-0.000.04
George MasonA100.000.1325.0022.09-0.00-0.07
RichmondA100.000.1350.0062.660.000.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.110.0028.50-0.00-0.05
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0036.84-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.1050.0033.640.00-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1066.6754.260.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0050.900.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.100.0028.13-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0062.840.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.100.0054.04-0.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0045.780.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.100.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1033.3338.44-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.1050.0059.030.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.1050.0054.250.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.100.0033.64-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1050.0054.170.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.10100.0050.390.000.00
XavierBE0.000.10100.0076.430.000.05
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0067.360.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0027.18-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6777.370.000.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.07100.0061.420.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.220.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.070.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0024.76-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0733.3354.24-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3347.78-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0034.57-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0035.570.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0069.310.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0044.430.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.07100.0055.900.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.15-0.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.070.0051.04-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0031.68-0.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3328.03-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0766.6771.300.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3365.68-0.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0054.660.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0750.0033.930.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0766.6770.360.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0063.380.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.070.0032.47-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0750.0021.230.00-0.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3338.27-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.070.0037.20-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.070.0038.12-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0733.3338.39-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.07100.0043.610.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.26-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.630.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0766.6766.940.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0766.6755.230.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0766.6768.330.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.20-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.070.0033.70-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0052.770.000.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0054.240.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.070.0053.38-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0062.910.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0750.0043.330.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0725.0029.11-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0077.160.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.330.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.850.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.540.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0055.810.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
IowaB100.000.0650.0067.840.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0037.45-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0650.0052.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0062.010.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0049.10-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.680.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0020.69-0.00-0.04
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0052.280.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.54-0.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6746.160.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.06100.0041.370.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0055.380.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0056.150.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0048.380.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.37-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0650.0057.440.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.040.0047.54-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.0450.0059.230.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.04100.0051.300.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0450.0046.900.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0450.0038.240.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.040.0033.39-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.04100.0052.690.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.040.0024.25-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.04100.0060.570.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.040.0032.16-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0046.41-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0033.43-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.040.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0054.47-0.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0065.750.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0027.11-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0350.0062.510.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0066.050.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0044.620.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.95-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0033.60-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.420.000.01
LehighPat0.000.030.0035.69-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0045.530.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0050.080.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.03100.0082.150.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC4.170.0350.0047.150.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.03100.0043.140.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0350.0026.710.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0064.850.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.030.0048.48-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0034.73-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0055.910.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.03100.0063.880.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0053.060.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0050.390.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0333.3363.82-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02