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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:110.9
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:94
Current Record:14-11
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:9-4
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1174.20.38%
18-1284.96.71%
17-1398.028.79%
16-14113.743.78%
15-15131.419.26%
14-16147.41.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13San Diego St. (52.7)MWCA71-60L0%0.0
11-16Morehead St. (153.3)OVCH67-66W100%0.0
11-19South Dakota St. (44.1)SumH67-83L0%0.0
11-21Houston Baptist (204.0)SlndH72-56W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (5.4)B10N66-77L0%0.0
11-25TCU (167.7)B12N60-71L0%0.0
11-30Kentucky (16.9)SECA75-63L0%0.0
12-5UAB (89.5)CUSAH61-74L0%0.0
12-13Murray St. (180.5)OVCH63-61W100%0.0
12-16Illinois Chicago (345.3)HorzA60-72W100%0.0
12-19Saint Joseph's (27.5)A10A79-65L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee St. (148.9)OVCH66-55W100%0.0
12-30Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH74-61W100%0.0
1-3Drake (302.7)MVCA62-67W100%0.0
1-6Loyola Chicago (231.8)MVCH54-52W100%0.0
1-9Indiana St. (159.0)MVCA77-65L0%0.0
1-12Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCA81-78L0%0.0
1-15Evansville (89.8)MVCH55-66L0%0.0
1-20Bradley (307.2)MVCA52-55W100%0.0
1-23Northern Iowa (113.4)MVCH76-67W100%0.0
1-26Drake (302.7)MVCH76-64W100%0.0
1-30Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA84-81L0%0.0
2-3Loyola Chicago (231.8)MVCA70-78W100%0.0
2-6Wichita St. (35.6)MVCH58-53W100%0.0
2-11Evansville (89.8)MVCA60-70W100%0.0
2-14Bradley (307.2)MVCH0-095%17.6
2-17Indiana St. (159.0)MVCH0-062%3.3
2-20Northern Iowa (113.4)MVCA0-024%-7.5
2-24Southern Illinois (131.3)MVCA0-035%-4.2
2-27Wichita St. (35.6)MVCA0-07%-16.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.3926.3755.8654.703.092.48
Southern IllinoisMVC2.754.2872.0071.921.211.87
EvansvilleMVC4.674.2773.9174.732.232.11
DrakeMVC4.624.2722.7325.00-2.52-2.13
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.624.2750.0047.020.00-0.25
BradleyMVC2.794.2712.5012.61-2.09-3.19
Northern IowaMVC2.744.2458.3356.710.460.57
Indiana St.MVC2.784.2447.8348.03-0.12-0.17
Missouri St.MVC4.614.2436.3636.48-1.26-1.15
Wichita St.MVC2.734.2377.2779.011.492.46
Murray St.OVC2.211.8450.0052.860.000.10
TCUB122.131.7843.4837.34-0.28-0.45
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.171.7810.0011.08-1.73-1.39
Morehead St.OVC2.091.7654.5555.490.190.19
Tennessee St.OVC2.091.7671.4367.700.890.62
South Dakota St.Sum2.091.7272.7373.700.950.82
Houston BaptistSlnd2.091.7252.6351.810.110.06
KentuckySEC2.001.6773.9171.710.960.72
MarylandB102.001.6786.9683.121.481.10
Saint Joseph'sA102.001.6782.6180.651.301.02
San Diego St.MWC2.001.6768.1869.020.730.63
UABCUSA2.001.6782.6179.121.300.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.330.2913.0415.26-0.25-0.20
Saint LouisA100.170.2334.7832.39-0.05-0.08
BelmontOVC0.210.2168.0066.640.080.07
North TexasCUSA0.160.1931.8232.47-0.06-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1824.0024.16-0.09-0.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.1850.0049.320.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1839.1341.06-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.210.1816.6719.49-0.14-0.11
Cleveland St.Horz0.260.1821.7422.78-0.15-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.220.1882.6183.030.140.12
IUPUISum0.210.1738.4638.50-0.05-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.210.1741.6742.39-0.04-0.03
TulsaAmer0.170.1766.6764.730.060.05
New MexicoMWC0.170.1758.3360.710.030.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1745.4546.07-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1565.2264.330.050.04
Weber St.BSky0.210.1566.6769.760.070.06
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1531.5832.03-0.06-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1568.1867.730.060.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.170.1535.0034.87-0.05-0.04
NevadaMWC0.170.1557.1455.350.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1572.2275.710.060.07
IowaB100.170.1479.1778.890.100.08
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1240.0042.85-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.1250.0050.500.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.180.1254.1753.810.020.01
UNLVMWC0.090.1252.1755.080.000.01
OaklandHorz0.090.1265.3865.500.030.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.1245.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.1270.8368.090.030.04
MinnesotaB100.130.1225.0027.25-0.06-0.05
ButlerBE0.120.1170.8368.990.050.04
ToledoMAC0.170.1160.8762.070.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.170.1147.6249.27-0.01-0.00
WyomingMWC0.090.1143.4842.54-0.01-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.1150.0051.150.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.090.1160.8755.980.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.1160.8757.170.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.080.1160.8760.430.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1154.5552.530.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.170.1163.6461.560.050.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.1143.4850.67-0.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.130.1150.0048.120.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1145.8342.30-0.01-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.1145.0048.15-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.170.1182.6179.210.110.06
Iowa St.B120.080.1170.8367.960.030.04
Rhode IslandA100.170.1156.0055.750.020.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0956.5257.690.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0960.8762.470.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0931.8235.12-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.130.0933.3334.02-0.04-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.0958.3360.910.020.02
UtahP120.090.0970.8368.530.040.03
UMKCWAC0.130.0928.5732.73-0.05-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.0936.8442.87-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.090.0945.8344.06-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0970.8366.750.040.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0926.3232.42-0.04-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.130.0930.4328.20-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.120.0913.0412.96-0.09-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.0843.4843.76-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.090.0860.8755.310.020.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.0828.5733.29-0.05-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0883.3378.390.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.040.0843.4837.80-0.01-0.02
West VirginiaB120.090.0879.1778.100.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.120.0850.0052.940.000.00
George MasonA100.080.0833.3333.62-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5058.940.020.01
Ohio St.B100.120.0860.0055.570.020.01
RichmondA100.080.0856.5255.820.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0854.1754.210.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0866.6766.320.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0645.4543.88-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0655.5652.480.000.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0630.0029.17-0.02-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0622.7327.37-0.05-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.410.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.24-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0618.1821.06-0.06-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0627.2727.81-0.02-0.03
DenverSum0.090.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0658.3358.580.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0660.8759.830.010.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
USCP120.040.0675.0071.140.020.03
IPFWSum0.040.0670.8368.650.020.02
IndianaB100.040.0680.0075.690.030.03
RiceCUSA0.090.0627.2728.15-0.04-0.03
RiderMAAC0.090.0638.4641.36-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0630.0031.76-0.03-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0656.0053.630.010.00
DavidsonA100.040.0661.9058.180.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0659.0955.160.020.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0614.2924.87-0.07-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0650.0045.860.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.080.0664.0062.070.020.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0666.6766.780.010.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0670.8367.910.030.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0623.8122.85-0.02-0.03
TulaneAmer0.080.0636.0034.84-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0662.5063.450.020.02
ArizonaP120.040.0680.0078.730.020.03
BYUWCC0.040.0668.0070.260.010.02
DelawareCAA0.040.0625.0024.91-0.02-0.03
FIUCUSA0.040.0639.1342.98-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0626.0927.89-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.040.0685.0083.450.030.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0620.0022.24-0.05-0.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0664.0062.090.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0672.0069.130.040.02
PurdueB100.040.0680.0077.900.020.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0633.3332.04-0.03-0.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0662.5057.720.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0669.5770.020.030.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0668.1871.340.010.02
VirginiaACC0.040.0683.3378.460.030.03
Washington St.P120.040.0634.7831.64-0.01-0.02
WisconsinB100.040.0662.5056.990.010.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0539.1335.44-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0529.1733.75-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0558.3363.160.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0573.6875.880.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0520.0019.72-0.05-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0552.0048.910.00-0.00
BaylorB120.040.0573.9168.450.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.0525.0025.09-0.02-0.03
FordhamA100.080.0552.3850.690.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0558.3356.290.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.040.0565.2260.710.010.01
La SalleA100.040.0519.0520.30-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.040.0562.5059.070.010.01
MassachusettsA100.040.0543.4842.42-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.040.0586.9682.620.030.04
PortlandWCC0.040.0538.4638.04-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.040.0572.7370.390.020.02
TexasB120.080.0566.6762.200.030.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0558.3359.970.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0340.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0323.8129.52-0.03-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.040.0360.8760.240.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0315.0018.12-0.03-0.02
HoustonAmer0.040.0370.8367.980.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0322.2231.13-0.03-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.680.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.60-0.03-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0365.2263.630.010.01
PittsburghACC0.040.0372.7367.600.020.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0345.8341.64-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.640.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0350.0052.880.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0345.4551.69-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0386.3684.240.030.02
CaliforniaP120.040.0366.6764.780.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0341.6739.50-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0383.3382.090.030.02
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0347.8351.93-0.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0337.5042.32-0.01-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0370.8370.130.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.040.0356.0052.860.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0355.0053.660.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7370.510.000.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0380.0081.550.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.040.0352.0050.770.000.00
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0046.760.00-0.00
RutgersB100.040.0321.7420.33-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.040.0345.4543.98-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0352.1751.840.000.00
TroySB0.040.0322.7324.37-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.040.0321.7422.42-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.040.0373.0873.770.020.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.500.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.040.0354.1754.420.000.00
ColgatePat0.040.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.040.0368.1865.570.020.01
DaytonA100.000.0387.5083.730.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.039.0912.25-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.040.0313.0416.41-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.040.0375.0071.810.020.01
DuquesneA100.000.0360.8756.270.000.00
George WashingtonA100.040.0375.0071.980.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.040.0379.1776.000.020.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0333.3330.27-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0323.0823.85-0.02-0.01
NJITASun0.040.0356.0055.640.010.00
PennIvy0.040.0336.8437.30-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.040.039.0917.13-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.040.0386.9682.930.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.9680.430.000.02
TempleAmer0.040.0365.2262.360.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0075.350.000.01
UCLAP120.040.0354.1752.980.000.00
VCUA100.040.0370.8371.030.020.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0387.5086.850.030.02
WashingtonP120.040.0362.5060.140.010.01