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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:62.0
Current RPI:62
Expected SOS:73
Current SOS:73
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:58



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1262.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Utah St. (143.0)MWCH55-60L0%0.0
11-21Weber St. (263.0)BSkyN64-73W100%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAN64-45W100%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (97.0)BEN80-84L0%0.0
11-29Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH85-73W100%0.0
12-2VCU (15.0)A10H62-66L0%0.0
12-7UAB (130.0)CUSAA74-78W100%0.0
12-14DePaul (197.0)BEA72-78W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH64-54W100%0.0
12-20Murray St. (63.0)OVCA89-77L0%0.0
12-22IPFW (215.0)SumH68-43W100%0.0
12-31Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH61-63L0%0.0
1-4Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA70-62L0%0.0
1-7Drake (269.0)MVCH81-45W100%0.0
1-11Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA55-69W100%0.0
1-14Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA71-70L0%0.0
1-17Bradley (288.0)MVCH82-72W100%0.0
1-20Drake (269.0)MVCA56-64W100%0.0
1-25Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH53-54L0%0.0
1-28Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH67-57W100%0.0
1-31Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA45-48W100%0.0
2-3Evansville (118.0)MVCH77-51W100%0.0
2-7Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA65-59L0%0.0
2-11Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA83-64L0%0.0
2-14Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH62-68L0%0.0
2-18Bradley (288.0)MVCA47-60W100%0.0
2-21Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH67-60W100%0.0
2-25Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH73-56W100%0.0
2-28Evansville (118.0)MVCA67-69W100%0.0
3-6Evansville (118.0)MVCN71-67W100%0.0
3-7Wichita St. (17.0)MVCN62-65W100%0.0
3-8Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCN69-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.5726.5761.5461.546.136.13
Northern IowaMVC5.735.7390.0090.004.594.59
Wichita St.MVC5.685.6889.2989.294.464.46
EvansvilleMVC5.625.6266.6766.671.871.87
Southern IllinoisMVC4.254.2533.3333.33-1.42-1.42
BradleyMVC4.224.2226.6726.67-1.97-1.97
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.214.2160.7160.710.900.90
DrakeMVC4.194.1928.5728.57-1.79-1.79
Indiana St.MVC4.144.1442.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Missouri St.MVC4.134.1333.3333.33-1.38-1.38
Murray St.OVC1.801.8082.7682.761.181.18
Seton HallBE1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE1.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
VCUA101.661.6673.5373.530.780.78
Tennessee MartinOVC1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
Old DominionCUSA1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
Utah St.MWC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
Weber St.BSky1.591.5940.7440.74-0.29-0.29
UABCUSA1.591.5956.2556.250.200.20
IPFWSum1.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz1.561.5628.5728.57-0.67-0.67
Saint LouisA100.270.2732.2632.26-0.10-0.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.260.2625.0025.00-0.13-0.13
IUPUISum0.240.2432.2632.26-0.09-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2139.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.210.2121.4321.43-0.12-0.12
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1938.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.180.1873.3373.330.090.09
BelmontOVC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
ButlerBE0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
MemphisAmer0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
George WashingtonA100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
RichmondA100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
DetroitHorz0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
MarquetteBE0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1552.9452.940.010.01
George MasonA100.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
DenverSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.120.1294.1294.120.110.11
South DakotaSum0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0862.9662.960.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0786.6786.670.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DaytonA100.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
FordhamA100.040.0430.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0291.1891.180.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0290.6290.620.020.02