Illinois St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	100.0
Current RPI:	100
Expected SOS:	111
Current SOS:	111
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	11-10
Expected Conf Record:	11-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	131
Expected OOC SOS:	276

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	100.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	A	55-47	L	0%
11-17	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	H	68-38	W	100%
11-19	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	H	78-70	W	100%
11-22	Rutgers (163.0)	BE	N	70-76	W	100%
11-23	Illinois (92.0)	B10	N	59-63	L	0%
11-27	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	H	75-51	W	100%
11-30	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	H	85-41	W	100%
12-3	NC Wilmington (214.0)	CAA	H	54-63	L	0%
12-7	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	A	73-78	W	100%
12-18	Norfolk St. (128.0)	MEAC	H	68-36	W	100%
12-20	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	72-65	W	100%
12-29	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	H	65-61	W	100%
1-1	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	A	86-71	L	0%
1-4	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	60-68	W	100%
1-7	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	H	75-73	W	100%
1-10	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	65-62	L	0%
1-13	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	H	78-87	L	0%
1-15	Drake (133.0)	MVC	A	77-60	L	0%
1-18	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	H	67-54	W	100%
1-21	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	79-71	L	0%
1-25	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	H	76-69	W	100%
1-28	Southern Illinois (255.0)	MVC	H	60-40	W	100%
2-1	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	102-74	L	0%
2-4	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	H	78-48	W	100%
2-8	Drake (133.0)	MVC	H	64-53	W	100%
2-11	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	A	78-63	L	0%
2-14	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	83-77	L	0%
2-18	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	H	79-75	W	100%
2-22	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	H	55-68	L	0%
2-25	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	A	53-54	W	100%
3-2	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	N	54-42	W	100%
3-3	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	N	64-65	W	100%
3-4	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	N	83-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Illinois St.	MVC	26.54	26.54	58.65	58.65	4.59	4.59
Creighton	MVC	5.56	5.56	83.33	83.33	3.70	3.70
Wichita St.	MVC	5.50	5.50	85.71	85.71	3.93	3.93
Northern Iowa	MVC	5.42	5.42	60.71	60.71	1.16	1.16
Indiana St.	MVC	4.08	4.08	55.17	55.17	0.42	0.42
Drake	MVC	4.07	4.07	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Evansville	MVC	4.07	4.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.06	4.06	25.00	25.00	-2.03	-2.03
Missouri St.	MVC	4.03	4.03	51.72	51.72	0.14	0.14
Bradley	MVC	4.01	4.01	23.33	23.33	-2.14	-2.14
Chicago St.	GWC	1.76	1.76	11.11	11.11	-1.37	-1.37
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.69	1.69	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Morehead St.	OVC	1.60	1.60	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Illinois	B10	1.60	1.60	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.59	1.59	77.42	77.42	0.87	0.87
Lipscomb	ASun	1.57	1.57	41.38	41.38	-0.27	-0.27
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	1.56	1.56	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	1.52	1.52	33.33	33.33	-0.51	-0.51
NC Wilmington	CAA	1.52	1.52	30.00	30.00	-0.61	-0.61
Oakland	Sum	1.52	1.52	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Rutgers	BE	1.52	1.52	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
Iowa	B10	0.27	0.27	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.22	0.22	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.21	0.21	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.18	0.18	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.17	0.17	25.93	25.93	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.16	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
Iowa St.	B12	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.15	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Nevada	WAC	0.15	0.15	80.00	80.00	0.09	0.09
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Northeastern	CAA	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
West Virginia	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	GWC	0.10	0.10	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.07	-0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	96.43	96.43	0.08	0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	6.90	6.90	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.07	0.07	19.23	19.23	-0.05	-0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.45	6.45	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.02	0.02	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.02	0.02	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01