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Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:77.3
Current RPI:77
Expected SOS:91
Current SOS:93
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:5.81%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:66
Expected OOC SOS:39



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1177.3100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Utah St. (118.9)MWCH55-60L0%0.0
11-21Weber St. (259.2)BSkyN64-73W100%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (40.3)CUSAN64-45W100%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (76.3)BEN80-84L0%0.0
11-29Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzH85-73W100%0.0
12-2VCU (19.5)A10H62-66L0%0.0
12-7UAB (148.7)CUSAA74-78W100%0.0
12-14DePaul (175.5)BEA72-78W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee Martin (167.4)OVCH64-54W100%0.0
12-20Murray St. (65.0)OVCA89-77L0%0.0
12-22IPFW (209.2)SumH68-43W100%0.0
12-31Indiana St. (177.6)MVCH61-63L0%0.0
1-4Wichita St. (11.3)MVCA70-62L0%0.0
1-7Drake (249.6)MVCH81-45W100%0.0
1-11Missouri St. (228.7)MVCA55-69W100%0.0
1-14Indiana St. (177.6)MVCA71-70L0%0.0
1-17Bradley (294.1)MVCH82-72W100%0.0
1-20Drake (249.6)MVCA56-64W100%0.0
1-25Northern Iowa (14.6)MVCH53-54L0%0.0
1-28Missouri St. (228.7)MVCH67-57W100%0.0
1-31Loyola Chicago (124.9)MVCA45-48W100%0.0
2-3Evansville (109.1)MVCH77-51W100%0.0
2-7Southern Illinois (285.7)MVCA65-59L0%0.0
2-11Northern Iowa (14.6)MVCA83-64L0%0.0
2-14Wichita St. (11.3)MVCH62-68L0%0.0
2-18Bradley (294.1)MVCA47-60W100%0.0
2-21Loyola Chicago (124.9)MVCH67-60W100%0.0
2-25Southern Illinois (285.7)MVCH73-56W100%0.0
2-28Evansville (109.1)MVCA67-69W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.4126.4060.9960.995.815.80
DrakeMVC4.464.4529.6329.63-1.82-1.81
Southern IllinoisMVC4.434.4332.1432.14-1.58-1.58
Northern IowaMVC4.434.4389.2989.293.483.48
EvansvilleMVC4.434.4366.6766.671.481.48
Wichita St.MVC4.434.4288.8988.893.443.44
BradleyMVC4.404.4025.0025.00-2.20-2.20
Indiana St.MVC4.404.4044.4444.44-0.49-0.49
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.394.3961.5461.541.011.01
Missouri St.MVC4.394.3934.6234.62-1.35-1.35
Murray St.OVC1.961.9685.1985.191.381.38
DePaulBE1.851.8441.3840.91-0.32-0.33
Seton HallBE1.841.8455.5654.000.200.15
VCUA101.811.8171.4371.090.780.76
Tennessee MartinOVC1.791.7961.5461.540.410.41
Old DominionCUSA1.781.7881.4882.011.121.14
Utah St.MWC1.761.7661.5460.250.410.36
Weber St.BSky1.761.7541.6741.69-0.29-0.29
UABCUSA1.751.7555.5656.270.190.22
IPFWSum1.721.7252.0052.000.070.07
Youngstown St.Horz1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.300.3023.3323.33-0.16-0.16
Saint LouisA100.290.2935.7134.54-0.08-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.2551.8551.850.010.01
IUPUISum0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.240.2440.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.240.2421.4321.43-0.14-0.14
Oral RobertsSum0.220.2253.5753.570.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.210.2070.0069.370.080.08
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1882.1482.140.120.12
Green BayHorz0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1810.3410.34-0.14-0.14
MemphisAmer0.180.1858.6256.800.030.02
George WashingtonA100.180.1762.0762.660.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1567.8667.860.060.05
BelmontOVC0.150.1564.2964.290.040.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1534.4836.59-0.05-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.150.1522.2222.14-0.08-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.150.1565.5265.390.050.05
DetroitHorz0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.120.1539.2940.47-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.150.1460.0060.250.030.03
George MasonA100.120.1429.6328.86-0.05-0.06
RichmondA100.150.1458.6259.660.030.03
VillanovaBE0.150.1493.3393.160.130.12
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1330.7731.72-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.120.1243.3342.03-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.130.1274.0775.610.060.06
TulsaAmer0.120.1277.7875.110.070.06
NevadaMWC0.130.1226.9225.64-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1242.8642.03-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.120.1244.0045.87-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1244.4443.80-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1250.0050.780.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1261.5458.940.020.02
CreightonBE0.120.1143.3342.98-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.090.1167.8668.360.030.04
ProvidenceBE0.090.1168.9767.780.030.04
St. John'sBE0.120.1167.8665.690.040.04
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0915.3816.35-0.07-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.090.0941.3841.54-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0982.1481.290.040.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0953.8553.590.010.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.100.0972.4171.340.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0955.5655.060.010.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0939.2940.08-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0956.6757.720.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0932.1432.89-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0976.0075.230.050.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0944.8346.88-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0940.7440.34-0.01-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0924.0024.99-0.03-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.8676.590.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.060.0933.3331.66-0.02-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0925.0024.22-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.090.0946.1544.41-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.090.0932.0031.15-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0926.9226.01-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0918.5217.91-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0724.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0669.2369.520.010.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0644.0044.87-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0657.6958.440.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0621.4321.45-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0653.5754.710.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.070.0672.4172.410.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0630.7731.10-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0626.9225.64-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0665.5265.430.020.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0648.1548.97-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.060.0642.8641.44-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0642.3142.08-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0660.8761.600.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0622.2223.22-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0670.3768.760.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0640.7438.91-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.2222.87-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.7160.860.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0662.0761.980.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0672.4172.010.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.2848.80-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0662.9664.240.020.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.16-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.5754.430.000.01
UtahP120.060.0677.7878.820.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0657.1456.690.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0670.3768.770.010.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
IowaB100.060.0666.6767.370.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0650.0048.800.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0624.1423.69-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0627.2727.96-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0650.0048.760.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.0026.97-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0684.6284.490.040.04
TCUB120.060.0658.6257.110.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.8556.020.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.6958.370.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0667.8669.240.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.10-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.060.0670.3768.760.020.02
DavidsonA100.030.0676.9276.720.020.03
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.23-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0346.1547.13-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0365.5264.170.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0338.4639.08-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0328.5729.92-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0346.4344.97-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.1547.41-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.9768.880.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0049.000.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0368.0066.540.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.0029.86-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0315.3814.77-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0335.7136.33-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0337.0437.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.32-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.0075.370.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0380.0079.430.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0337.9337.13-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.5265.850.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0367.8668.270.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0360.0059.400.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0370.0069.540.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0333.3332.69-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.0060.840.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0389.6687.990.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.9768.280.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0346.4346.73-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0379.3178.650.020.02
DuquesneA100.030.0334.6233.87-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.7731.66-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.7251.450.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0358.6257.150.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.4444.64-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0372.4171.810.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0357.1456.750.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.3771.010.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.91-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.810.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0364.2961.960.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0048.850.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0363.3363.000.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0396.5595.280.030.03