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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:33.0
Current RPI:33
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:124
Current Record:26-6
Expected Record:26-6
Current Conf Record:19-2
Expected Conf Record:19-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:14-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-633.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Murray St. (230.0)OVCA73-70L0%0.0
11-16Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH75-57W100%0.0
11-21TCU (67.0)B12A80-71L0%0.0
11-30IUPUI (218.0)SumH77-63W100%0.0
12-3New Mexico (86.0)MWCH79-74W100%0.0
12-7Tulsa (134.0)AmerA70-68L0%0.0
12-10Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH74-57W100%0.0
12-18Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10H81-72W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (300.0)BWA45-71W100%0.0
12-23San Francisco (94.0)WCCN58-66L0%0.0
12-25Tulsa (134.0)AmerN68-56W100%0.0
12-29Evansville (188.0)MVCH62-50W100%0.0
1-1Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA59-81W100%0.0
1-4Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH74-71W100%0.0
1-7Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA58-77W100%0.0
1-11Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA53-60W100%0.0
1-14Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH76-62W100%0.0
1-18Bradley (220.0)MVCA49-69W100%0.0
1-21Drake (314.0)MVCH72-58W100%0.0
1-25Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH71-66W100%0.0
1-29Evansville (188.0)MVCA59-69W100%0.0
2-1Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH57-51W100%0.0
2-4Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA86-45L0%0.0
2-7Drake (314.0)MVCA53-82W100%0.0
2-11Bradley (220.0)MVCH64-50W100%0.0
2-15Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA66-67W100%0.0
2-19Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH65-63W100%0.0
2-22Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH50-46W100%0.0
2-25Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA42-63W100%0.0
3-3Evansville (188.0)MVCN80-69W100%0.0
3-4Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCN63-50W100%0.0
3-5Wichita St. (32.0)MVCN51-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.6126.6184.5184.5118.3618.36
Wichita St.MVC5.755.7590.0090.004.604.60
Southern IllinoisMVC5.705.7055.1755.170.590.59
EvansvilleMVC5.675.6750.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC4.234.2340.0040.00-0.85-0.85
Missouri St.MVC4.214.2153.3353.330.280.28
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.184.1857.1457.140.600.60
Indiana St.MVC4.164.1635.7135.71-1.19-1.19
DrakeMVC4.124.1222.2222.22-2.29-2.29
Northern IowaMVC4.124.1248.1548.15-0.15-0.15
TulsaAmer3.203.2046.6746.67-0.21-0.21
Murray St.OVC1.791.7943.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Tennessee MartinOVC1.711.7163.3363.330.460.46
IUPUISum1.621.6241.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Fort WayneSum1.611.6159.2659.260.300.30
Saint Joseph'sA101.611.6136.6736.67-0.43-0.43
TCUB121.611.6153.1253.120.100.10
HawaiiBW1.561.5646.4346.43-0.11-0.11
New MexicoMWC1.561.5656.6756.670.210.21
San FranciscoWCC1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
South Dakota St.Sum0.310.3150.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.260.2621.4321.43-0.15-0.15
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.2541.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.230.2317.8617.86-0.15-0.15
LouisvilleACC0.220.2275.0075.000.110.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2044.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
OklahomaB120.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
Iowa St.B120.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Saint LouisA100.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
South DakotaSum0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
ToledoMAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
UNLVMWC0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
TulaneAmer0.150.1519.3519.35-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
George MasonA100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
SMUAmer0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
DenverSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MemphisAmer0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
LSUSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0529.4129.41-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00