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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:134.0
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:108
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:124
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8VCU (13.0)A10A96-58L0%0.0
11-12Drexel (132.0)CAAH70-78L0%0.0
11-17Northwestern (123.0)B10A64-68W100%0.0
11-20Manhattan (60.0)MAACH70-79L0%0.0
11-27Vermont (101.0)AEN76-87L0%0.0
11-30San Francisco (68.0)WCCA76-90W100%0.0
12-4Chicago St. (259.0)WACH75-56W100%0.0
12-7Dayton (43.0)A10H81-75W100%0.0
12-16Oakland (181.0)HorzA90-75L0%0.0
12-19Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH64-58W100%0.0
12-22DePaul (154.0)BEH69-64W100%0.0
1-2Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA78-70L0%0.0
1-5Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH66-48W100%0.0
1-8Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA66-47L0%0.0
1-11Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH59-50W100%0.0
1-15Evansville (214.0)MVCH79-78W100%0.0
1-18Drake (174.0)MVCA63-77W100%0.0
1-22Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH55-70L0%0.0
1-25Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA76-62L0%0.0
1-29Bradley (265.0)MVCA64-45L0%0.0
2-1Drake (174.0)MVCH75-57W100%0.0
2-5Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH76-65W100%0.0
2-9Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA79-69L0%0.0
2-12Evansville (214.0)MVCA104-98L0%0.0
2-15Bradley (265.0)MVCH70-54W100%0.0
2-18Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH67-63W100%0.0
2-23Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA72-59L0%0.0
2-26Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH77-59W100%0.0
3-1Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA66-65L0%0.0
3-7Missouri St. (85.0)MVCN53-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.3926.3948.3148.31-0.89-0.89
Missouri St.MVC5.905.9060.7160.711.271.27
Wichita St.MVC4.494.49100.00100.004.494.49
Indiana St.MVC4.404.4068.9768.971.671.67
Southern IllinoisMVC4.384.3840.0040.00-0.88-0.88
EvansvilleMVC4.354.3537.9337.93-1.05-1.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.354.3527.5927.59-1.95-1.95
BradleyMVC4.334.3336.6736.67-1.15-1.15
Northern IowaMVC4.314.3150.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC4.294.2950.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC1.801.8037.9337.93-0.43-0.43
DePaulBE1.771.7737.5037.50-0.44-0.44
VCUA101.751.7575.7675.760.900.90
Tennessee St.OVC1.741.7414.2914.29-1.25-1.25
DrexelCAA1.701.7051.7251.720.060.06
San FranciscoWCC1.691.6965.5265.520.530.53
VermontAE1.691.6965.5265.520.530.53
NorthwesternB101.691.6943.7543.75-0.21-0.21
DaytonA101.691.6971.8871.880.740.74
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6777.4277.420.910.91
OaklandHorz1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Saint LouisA100.260.2680.6580.650.160.16
IUPUISum0.240.2410.3410.34-0.19-0.19
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
BelmontOVC0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
UICHorz0.190.1913.7913.79-0.14-0.14
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
FordhamA100.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
Murray St.OVC0.160.1659.2659.260.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1614.8114.81-0.11-0.11
IonaMAAC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
IndianaB100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
AlbanyAE0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
OhioMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
La SalleA100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
RichmondA100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
PacificWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
New HampshireAE0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MarylandACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00