live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Bracket Busters - Blog


Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:117.0
Current RPI:117
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:113
Current Record:18-15
Expected Record:18-15
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:99
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-15117.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12UC Santa Barbara (244.0)BWH100-72W100%0.0
11-15Drexel (206.0)CAAA84-86W100%0.0
11-18Delaware St. (263.0)MEACH87-48W100%0.0
11-20Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)NECH91-58W100%0.0
11-23UAB (144.0)CUSAN77-65W100%0.0
11-24Northwestern (168.0)B10N72-69L0%0.0
12-1Louisville (3.0)BEA69-66L0%0.0
12-4Wyoming (75.0)MWCH67-81L0%0.0
12-8Western Michigan (128.0)MACH85-63W100%0.0
12-16Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH87-68W100%0.0
12-19Dayton (114.0)A10A73-74W100%0.0
12-22Austin Peay (319.0)OVCH83-57W100%0.0
12-30Indiana St. (74.0)MVCA77-75L0%0.0
1-2Creighton (25.0)MVCH72-79L0%0.0
1-5Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCH60-70L0%0.0
1-8Missouri St. (203.0)MVCA62-55L0%0.0
1-12Drake (143.0)MVCH77-82L0%0.0
1-16Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA74-62L0%0.0
1-20Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCA56-70W100%0.0
1-23Indiana St. (74.0)MVCH60-58W100%0.0
1-26Evansville (106.0)MVCH67-62W100%0.0
1-29Bradley (190.0)MVCA83-77L0%0.0
2-2Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH83-47W100%0.0
2-6Drake (143.0)MVCA86-94W100%0.0
2-9Creighton (25.0)MVCA72-75W100%0.0
2-13Bradley (190.0)MVCH79-59W100%0.0
2-17Wichita St. (37.0)MVCH67-68L0%0.0
2-20Evansville (106.0)MVCA79-62L0%0.0
2-23Utah St. (108.0)WACA80-71L0%0.0
2-27Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH86-50W100%0.0
3-2Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCA80-72L0%0.0
3-8Northern Iowa (83.0)MVCN65-73W100%0.0
3-9Wichita St. (37.0)MVCN66-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.4126.4153.0653.061.621.62
Wichita St.MVC5.465.4674.1974.192.642.64
Northern IowaMVC5.385.3853.5753.570.380.38
CreightonMVC4.094.0981.2581.252.552.55
Missouri St.MVC4.014.0127.5927.59-1.80-1.80
Indiana St.MVC3.983.9855.1755.170.410.41
DrakeMVC3.983.9844.8344.83-0.41-0.41
Southern IllinoisMVC3.963.9646.4346.43-0.28-0.28
BradleyMVC3.943.9450.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC3.943.9455.1755.170.410.41
Delaware St.MEAC1.611.6143.3343.33-0.21-0.21
LouisvilleBE1.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
UABCUSA1.581.5848.3948.39-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC1.571.5755.1755.170.160.16
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.571.5732.1432.14-0.56-0.56
Utah St.WAC1.571.5765.5265.520.490.49
Morgan St.MEAC1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
NorthwesternB101.561.5638.7138.71-0.35-0.35
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC1.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
DaytonA101.541.5456.6756.670.210.21
Austin PeayOVC1.521.5221.4321.43-0.87-0.87
DrexelCAA1.521.5243.3343.33-0.20-0.20
Western MichiganMAC1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
St. Mary'sWCC0.220.2281.2581.250.140.14
IowaB100.210.2163.6463.640.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
TulsaCUSA0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
MemphisCUSA0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.10-0.10
DenverWAC0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
High PointBSth0.150.1553.5753.570.010.01
George MasonCAA0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
XavierA100.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
UC DavisBW0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.130.1365.5265.520.040.04
NevadaMWC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.120.1265.5265.520.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.127.147.14-0.10-0.10
CaliforniaP120.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
MichiganB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
South FloridaBE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
Notre DameBE0.120.1273.5373.530.050.05
Virginia CommonwealthA100.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
DePaulBE0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
PacificBW0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1028.0028.00-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
New Orleansind0.100.1018.1818.18-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
Texas San AntonioWAC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Texas St.WAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
WagnerNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Old DominionCAA0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
AkronMAC0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
SyracuseBE0.070.0774.2974.290.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MonmouthNEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MarylandACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0553.8553.850.000.00
IllinoisB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
North TexasSB0.040.0436.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0417.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.040.0445.4545.45-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CharlotteA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
OaklandSum0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PennsylvaniaIvy0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
QuinnipiacNEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
St. Peter'sMAAC0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BrownIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
IndianaB100.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
TroySB0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
VirginiaACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
College of CharlestonSC0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Florida InternationalSB0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00