live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:77.1
Current RPI:58
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:20
Current Record:2-2
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:2-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:79



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-313.70.03%
25-414.70.07%
24-524.40.65%
23-631.02.36%
22-738.75.79%
21-848.711.02%
20-959.415.97%
19-1071.618.80%
18-1184.517.76%
17-1298.213.55%
16-13112.77.82%
15-14128.43.69%
14-15143.21.76%
13-16157.70.54%
12-17178.10.12%
11-18214.20.05%
10-19219.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Utah St. (151.4)MWCH55-60L0%0.0
11-21Weber St. (184.4)BSkyN64-73W100%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (78.0)CUSAN64-45W100%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (47.9)BEN80-84L0%0.0
11-29Youngstown St. (247.9)HorzH0-089%14.7
12-2VCU (24.0)A10H0-044%-1.8
12-7UAB (209.5)CUSAA0-069%5.9
12-14DePaul (222.3)BEA0-071%6.6
12-17Tennessee Martin (269.5)OVCH0-093%18.1
12-20Murray St. (129.2)OVCA0-049%-0.4
12-22IPFW (165.3)SumH0-078%9.4
12-31Indiana St. (203.3)MVCH0-087%13.5
1-4Wichita St. (19.6)MVCA0-018%-11.0
1-7Drake (269.3)MVCH0-093%18.1
1-11Missouri St. (155.8)MVCA0-058%2.5
1-14Indiana St. (203.3)MVCA0-070%6.3
1-17Bradley (247.4)MVCH0-091%15.8
1-20Drake (269.3)MVCA0-082%10.9
1-25Northern Iowa (38.0)MVCH0-050%0.1
1-28Missouri St. (155.8)MVCH0-079%9.7
1-31Loyola Chicago (208.8)MVCA0-071%6.5
2-3Evansville (74.1)MVCH0-063%3.9
2-7Southern Illinois (188.0)MVCA0-064%4.3
2-11Northern Iowa (38.0)MVCA0-028%-7.1
2-14Wichita St. (19.6)MVCH0-038%-3.8
2-18Bradley (247.4)MVCA0-076%8.6
2-21Loyola Chicago (208.8)MVCH0-087%13.7
2-25Southern Illinois (188.0)MVCH0-083%11.4
2-28Evansville (74.1)MVCA0-039%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC30.6326.4345.4563.77-2.787.28
DrakeMVC0.004.4925.0024.76-0.00-2.26
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4640.0049.47-0.00-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.004.46100.0079.060.002.59
EvansvilleMVC0.004.4675.0070.490.001.83
Wichita St.MVC0.004.45100.0084.070.003.03
BradleyMVC0.004.4250.0032.540.00-1.54
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4260.0041.870.00-0.72
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4250.0043.730.00-0.55
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4233.3349.55-0.00-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.001.9633.3368.17-0.000.71
Seton HallBE12.501.85100.0061.8512.500.44
DePaulBE0.001.8466.6725.370.00-0.91
VCUA100.001.8180.0073.970.000.87
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.7966.6742.530.00-0.27
Old DominionCUSA12.501.78100.0077.4712.500.98
Utah St.MWC14.061.7650.0053.390.000.12
Weber St.BSky13.751.7533.3354.81-4.580.17
UABCUSA0.001.7520.0038.20-0.00-0.41
IPFWSum0.001.7266.6764.110.000.49
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.7250.0041.760.00-0.28
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.3120.0031.46-0.00-0.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.250.0035.88-0.00-0.07
IUPUISum0.000.2540.0030.22-0.00-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2525.0043.27-0.00-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2420.0039.02-0.00-0.05
Saint LouisA100.000.2475.0046.860.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2340.0038.51-0.00-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.220.0033.42-0.00-0.07
ButlerBE0.000.2180.0071.410.000.09
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1875.0056.110.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1875.0078.500.000.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.180.0025.08-0.00-0.09
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1533.3354.85-0.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1520.0043.38-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1575.0066.230.000.05
BelmontOVC0.000.1580.0075.550.000.08
MarquetteBE0.000.1560.0039.990.00-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1533.3351.25-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.15100.0078.730.000.08
VillanovaBE0.000.14100.0075.980.000.08
George MasonA100.000.1420.0022.17-0.00-0.08
RichmondA101.250.1450.0063.970.000.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0016.54-0.00-0.09
Texas TechB120.000.1375.0045.180.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1360.0055.660.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1360.0059.160.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1333.3360.46-0.000.03
DenverSum0.000.1250.0060.380.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1233.3330.52-0.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0048.990.00-0.00
NevadaMWC3.120.1225.0043.15-1.56-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1266.6750.170.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.120.0023.13-0.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1240.0045.07-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.12100.0061.500.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.1280.0063.370.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.12100.0065.930.000.04
St. John'sBE0.000.12100.0056.410.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1175.0069.240.000.04
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0038.79-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0052.530.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0069.610.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0023.57-0.00-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0960.0053.140.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0940.0026.71-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0933.3358.80-0.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0055.370.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3347.83-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0920.0042.43-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0920.0034.53-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC2.810.0960.0056.260.560.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0028.59-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.09100.0051.100.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0925.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0914.2930.86-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0933.3337.71-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.090.0039.39-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0980.0072.400.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0966.6751.730.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0960.0067.380.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0018.96-0.00-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.0950.0045.460.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0975.0039.180.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0925.0028.63-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0050.720.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0047.410.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.73-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.50-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.550.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0666.6751.540.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0680.0074.820.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0633.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0025.280.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0680.0074.350.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0633.3351.33-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.060.0020.51-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0650.0070.920.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0675.0073.700.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0057.070.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0625.0031.20-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0022.33-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0039.34-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0650.0067.630.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0675.0050.750.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.51-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0616.6730.56-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.440.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.120.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0616.6726.26-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0058.380.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3352.29-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3366.19-0.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.53-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0063.05-0.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0680.0063.470.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0059.990.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0061.130.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.280.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0059.430.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.77-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0051.700.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0048.100.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.490.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0069.210.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth2.810.0640.0058.41-0.560.01
IowaB100.000.0666.6765.220.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0036.14-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0035.74-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0640.0051.36-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0683.3338.760.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0068.20-0.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0035.980.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0680.0070.930.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6764.030.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3334.34-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.65-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0375.0044.850.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.17-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0383.3368.400.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.030.0029.60-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0036.05-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0031.24-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0052.330.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.90-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0380.0070.540.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0057.180.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0023.49-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0045.170.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0032.17-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0033.90-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.700.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0028.00-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0320.0038.45-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0054.85-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0062.400.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0320.0041.82-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0325.0043.61-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC1.250.03100.0045.141.25-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0074.090.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.680.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC1.250.0325.0037.88-0.62-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0380.0071.340.000.01
UC DavisBW1.250.03100.0052.621.250.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0325.0053.73-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0029.750.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0360.0056.890.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0068.290.000.01
MaineAE0.000.030.0019.84-0.00-0.02
MercerSC1.560.0350.0054.380.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.450.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0320.0040.88-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.250.0366.6747.100.42-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0375.0055.000.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0062.000.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.300.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0053.990.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6758.150.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.23-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.910.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.830.000.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0036.580.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.070.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0366.6746.480.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.45-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.330.000.01