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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:114.0
Current RPI:114
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:99
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:10



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14114.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA71-60L0%0.0
11-16Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH67-66W100%0.0
11-19South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH67-83L0%0.0
11-21Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH72-56W100%0.0
11-24Maryland (14.0)B10N66-77L0%0.0
11-25TCU (174.0)B12N60-71L0%0.0
11-30Kentucky (11.0)SECA75-63L0%0.0
12-5UAB (88.0)CUSAH61-74L0%0.0
12-13Murray St. (169.0)OVCH63-61W100%0.0
12-16Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA60-72W100%0.0
12-19Saint Joseph's (22.0)A10A79-65L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH66-55W100%0.0
12-30Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH74-61W100%0.0
1-3Drake (325.0)MVCA62-67W100%0.0
1-6Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH54-52W100%0.0
1-9Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA77-65L0%0.0
1-12Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA81-78L0%0.0
1-15Evansville (93.0)MVCH55-66L0%0.0
1-20Bradley (306.0)MVCA52-55W100%0.0
1-23Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH76-67W100%0.0
1-26Drake (325.0)MVCH76-64W100%0.0
1-30Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA84-81L0%0.0
2-3Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA70-78W100%0.0
2-6Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH58-53W100%0.0
2-11Evansville (93.0)MVCA60-70W100%0.0
2-14Bradley (306.0)MVCH75-60W100%0.0
2-17Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH78-50W100%0.0
2-20Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA75-66L0%0.0
2-24Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH73-50W100%0.0
2-27Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA74-58L0%0.0
3-4Indiana St. (172.0)MVCN57-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.3726.3754.2054.202.212.21
Indiana St.MVC5.715.7142.8642.86-0.82-0.82
EvansvilleMVC4.314.3174.1974.192.092.09
Northern IowaMVC4.264.2664.5264.521.241.24
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.234.2348.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Missouri St.MVC4.204.2037.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Wichita St.MVC4.204.2075.8675.862.172.17
Southern IllinoisMVC4.184.1870.0070.001.671.67
DrakeMVC4.184.1821.4321.43-2.39-2.39
BradleyMVC4.174.1713.7913.79-3.02-3.02
Murray St.OVC1.801.8053.5753.570.130.13
Morehead St.OVC1.731.7360.7160.710.370.37
TCUB121.721.7234.3834.38-0.54-0.54
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.721.7211.1111.11-1.34-1.34
Tennessee St.OVC1.701.7066.6766.670.570.57
South Dakota St.Sum1.671.6776.6776.670.890.89
Houston BaptistSlnd1.661.6646.4346.43-0.12-0.12
KentuckySEC1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
MarylandB101.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
Saint Joseph'sA101.611.6178.7978.790.930.93
San Diego St.MWC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
UABCUSA1.611.6180.0080.000.970.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.260.2611.1111.11-0.20-0.20
Saint LouisA100.230.2334.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.190.1963.3363.330.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1980.0080.000.110.11
IUPUISum0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1682.1482.140.100.10
NevadaMWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1448.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1329.1729.17-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
ButlerBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.070.07
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02