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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:83.8
Current RPI:47
Expected SOS:92
Current SOS:18
Current Record:6-4
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-523.50.11%
23-629.70.29%
22-735.11.63%
21-844.05.16%
20-954.411.84%
19-1066.417.51%
18-1180.121.49%
17-1294.519.26%
16-13110.112.94%
15-14125.76.23%
14-15143.62.67%
13-16162.40.71%
12-17179.40.12%
11-18186.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Utah St. (192.3)MWCH55-60L0%0.0
11-21Weber St. (242.0)BSkyN64-73W100%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAN64-45W100%0.0
11-24Seton Hall (38.0)BEN80-84L0%0.0
11-29Youngstown St. (223.9)HorzH85-73W100%0.0
12-2VCU (17.1)A10H62-66L0%0.0
12-7UAB (237.4)CUSAA74-78W100%0.0
12-14DePaul (197.3)BEA72-78W100%0.0
12-17Tennessee Martin (148.4)OVCH64-54W100%0.0
12-20Murray St. (143.8)OVCA89-77L0%0.0
12-22IPFW (191.7)SumH0-081%10.3
12-31Indiana St. (269.2)MVCH0-091%15.5
1-4Wichita St. (19.1)MVCA0-013%-13.1
1-7Drake (288.4)MVCH0-094%18.6
1-11Missouri St. (212.2)MVCA0-063%3.8
1-14Indiana St. (269.2)MVCA0-073%7.2
1-17Bradley (262.1)MVCH0-089%14.1
1-20Drake (288.4)MVCA0-081%10.3
1-25Northern Iowa (25.6)MVCH0-043%-2.0
1-28Missouri St. (212.2)MVCH0-085%12.2
1-31Loyola Chicago (131.4)MVCA0-045%-1.4
2-3Evansville (73.2)MVCH0-058%2.3
2-7Southern Illinois (233.5)MVCA0-061%3.4
2-11Northern Iowa (25.6)MVCA0-019%-10.3
2-14Wichita St. (19.1)MVCH0-034%-4.7
2-18Bradley (262.1)MVCA0-069%5.7
2-21Loyola Chicago (131.4)MVCH0-073%7.0
2-25Southern Illinois (233.5)MVCH0-084%11.7
2-28Evansville (73.2)MVCA0-030%-6.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC27.5226.4257.6960.754.235.68
DrakeMVC0.504.4718.1819.99-0.32-2.68
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4554.5546.200.00-0.34
Northern IowaMVC0.234.4590.9184.100.193.03
EvansvilleMVC0.254.4477.7873.250.142.07
Wichita St.MVC0.254.4387.5086.210.193.21
BradleyMVC0.004.4133.3334.97-0.00-1.33
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4130.0030.62-0.00-1.71
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4133.3338.08-0.00-1.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4075.0060.170.000.90
Murray St.OVC5.001.9655.5663.820.560.54
Seton HallBE5.001.8588.8966.263.890.60
DePaulBE5.001.8466.6735.381.67-0.54
VCUA105.251.8170.0074.932.100.90
Tennessee MartinOVC5.001.7975.0067.262.500.62
Old DominionCUSA5.231.78100.0085.155.231.25
Utah St.MWC5.311.7650.0046.410.00-0.13
Weber St.BSky5.231.7542.8646.04-0.75-0.14
UABCUSA5.001.7533.3337.95-1.67-0.42
IPFWSum0.001.7250.0055.600.000.19
Youngstown St.Horz5.001.7250.0044.830.00-0.18
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.530.3018.1820.86-0.34-0.18
Saint LouisA100.000.3060.0033.270.00-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2540.0043.04-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.2427.2728.86-0.00-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2440.0046.19-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.2422.2229.80-0.00-0.10
Oral RobertsSum0.310.2240.0044.08-0.06-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.2212.5026.89-0.00-0.10
ButlerBE0.000.2172.7367.960.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.250.1881.8273.180.160.09
MemphisAmer0.000.1860.0062.070.000.04
Green BayHorz0.000.1875.0077.010.000.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.180.0015.00-0.00-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.1570.0059.660.090.03
Kent St.MAC0.230.1575.0058.160.110.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.1516.6743.20-0.17-0.02
BelmontOVC0.230.1563.6464.880.060.04
MarquetteBE0.280.1560.0048.980.06-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.1525.0033.40-0.00-0.05
XavierBE0.250.1572.7367.590.110.05
VillanovaBE0.230.14100.0082.970.230.10
RichmondA100.250.1460.0057.700.050.02
George MasonA100.250.1433.3330.21-0.08-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1314.2929.82-0.00-0.05
DetroitHorz0.000.1340.0048.02-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.1390.0055.360.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1360.0056.620.000.02
DenverSum0.000.1245.4555.13-0.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1237.5035.74-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1260.0057.890.000.02
NevadaMWC0.560.1211.1125.48-0.44-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1227.2729.17-0.00-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.250.1250.0047.880.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.1250.0051.710.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.1275.0052.140.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.1270.0059.220.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1275.0057.390.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1288.8965.170.000.04
George WashingtonA100.500.1166.6765.500.170.04
South DakotaSum0.230.1027.2738.30-0.10-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.230.0911.1128.88-0.18-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.000.0930.0028.65-0.00-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.0975.0066.220.110.03
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0916.6737.21-0.17-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.310.0955.5655.710.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.09100.0078.210.000.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.0930.0031.48-0.10-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.230.0985.7170.530.160.04
PortlandWCC0.250.0970.0051.040.100.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.230.0930.0039.59-0.09-0.02
UMKCWAC0.230.0920.0040.84-0.14-0.02
LSUSEC0.810.0980.0063.910.490.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0933.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.480.0938.4644.61-0.11-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.090.0023.69-0.25-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.250.090.0011.59-0.25-0.07
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0954.5564.070.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0944.4450.41-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0942.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0972.7367.520.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0922.2236.53-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0942.8636.81-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6726.98-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0942.8626.99-0.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0744.4455.37-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5655.280.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0737.5031.88-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0614.2915.15-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.130.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0660.0076.250.000.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.40-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0052.35-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0620.0026.07-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.74-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0636.3648.28-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
UtahP120.000.0680.0080.520.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0068.770.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0037.570.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.510.0620.0025.85-0.30-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.280.0633.3343.14-0.09-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.14-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.540.0670.0068.340.220.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.540.0630.0038.57-0.22-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8637.83-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.45-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0028.13-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0055.890.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.72-0.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.03-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0677.7872.890.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.140.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.80-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.00-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.000.0675.0065.140.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0069.200.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.190.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0672.7362.220.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.71-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0054.170.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.008.00-0.00-0.05
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3334.30-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.38-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6749.560.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0655.5652.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.540.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.500.0637.5050.31-0.130.00
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.420.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.250.0633.3341.20-0.08-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.47-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0650.0057.820.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.810.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.500.0640.0041.32-0.10-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6778.020.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.280.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0660.0038.030.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6761.820.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0337.5041.94-0.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0380.0053.260.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.05-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0366.6759.370.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.17-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0342.8648.87-0.04-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0318.1830.76-0.18-0.01
NebraskaB100.280.0366.6744.720.09-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0337.5056.46-0.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0370.0062.710.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0042.090.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.280.030.008.60-0.28-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0342.8641.81-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0028.43-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.250.030.0027.67-0.25-0.01
HoustonAmer0.250.0362.5041.790.06-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.230.0333.3328.79-0.08-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.230.0370.0061.320.090.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.230.0320.0035.33-0.14-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.0316.6733.39-0.15-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.000.000.00
LehighPat0.250.0344.4454.06-0.030.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.230.0344.4437.40-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.0342.8633.27-0.04-0.01
Oregon St.P120.250.0377.7856.220.140.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.580.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.0344.4436.80-0.03-0.01
StanfordP120.250.0366.6758.320.080.00
UC DavisBW0.230.0387.5068.000.170.01
USCP120.230.0360.0036.410.05-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0340.0049.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.250.0363.6465.220.070.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.250.0362.5072.070.060.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.250.0333.3346.17-0.08-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0311.1120.80-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.250.0344.4444.02-0.03-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0372.7374.850.000.01
RutgersB100.250.0354.5532.590.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.0336.3648.18-0.07-0.00
UCLAP120.250.0366.6754.480.080.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.0314.2944.44-0.18-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.0357.1455.330.040.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1457.100.000.00
WisconsinB100.250.0390.9188.840.200.02
CincinnatiAmer0.230.0370.0064.680.090.01
DaytonA100.000.0380.0069.770.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.06-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0371.4363.770.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0354.5552.730.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
OregonP120.230.0370.0057.440.090.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.160.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0377.7865.110.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.230.0355.5646.290.03-0.00
ToledoMAC0.230.0363.6461.520.060.01
VirginiaACC0.230.03100.0086.080.230.02