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Through games of Jan 20, 2017.


Illinois St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:34.0
Current RPI:28
Expected SOS:122
Current SOS:64
Current Record:14-4
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:7-0
Expected Conf Record:16-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:61
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-423.14.40%
24-526.622.60%
23-631.134.50%
22-737.824.68%
21-846.710.54%
20-958.62.65%
19-1072.20.52%
18-1188.40.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Illinois St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Murray St. (193.9)OVCA73-70L0%0.0
11-16Fort Wayne (121.1)SumH75-57W100%0.0
11-21TCU (39.4)B12A80-71L0%0.0
11-30IUPUI (202.2)SumH77-63W100%0.0
12-3New Mexico (85.0)MWCH79-74W100%0.0
12-7Tulsa (113.4)AmerA70-68L0%0.0
12-10Tennessee Martin (180.0)OVCH74-57W100%0.0
12-18Saint Joseph's (120.0)A10H81-72W100%0.0
12-22Hawaii (298.1)BWA45-71W100%0.0
12-23San Francisco (102.4)WCCN58-66L0%0.0
12-25Tulsa (113.4)AmerN68-56W100%0.0
12-29Evansville (197.4)MVCH62-50W100%0.0
1-1Loyola Chicago (138.3)MVCA59-81W100%0.0
1-4Missouri St. (161.4)MVCH74-71W100%0.0
1-7Indiana St. (213.4)MVCA58-77W100%0.0
1-11Southern Illinois (161.7)MVCA53-60W100%0.0
1-14Wichita St. (49.6)MVCH76-62W100%0.0
1-18Bradley (244.3)MVCA49-69W100%0.0
1-21Drake (289.6)MVCH0-096%19.3
1-25Indiana St. (213.4)MVCH0-092%15.4
1-29Evansville (197.4)MVCA0-077%8.3
2-1Northern Iowa (192.7)MVCH0-089%13.4
2-4Wichita St. (49.6)MVCA0-024%-7.9
2-7Drake (289.6)MVCA0-088%13.1
2-11Bradley (244.3)MVCH0-096%19.3
2-15Missouri St. (161.4)MVCA0-068%5.0
2-19Loyola Chicago (138.3)MVCH0-083%10.7
2-22Southern Illinois (161.7)MVCH0-090%14.2
2-25Northern Iowa (192.7)MVCA0-074%7.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Illinois St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Illinois St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Illinois St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Illinois St.MVC26.5626.4582.0581.8517.0216.85
Southern IllinoisMVC3.234.4655.5650.760.360.07
Wichita St.MVC3.254.4583.3386.192.163.22
BradleyMVC3.244.4238.8935.80-0.72-1.26
EvansvilleMVC3.154.4247.0645.95-0.19-0.36
Loyola ChicagoMVC3.084.4264.7163.460.911.19
Missouri St.MVC3.164.4066.6762.701.051.12
Indiana St.MVC3.144.3935.2938.25-0.92-1.03
DrakeMVC0.454.3929.4129.23-0.19-1.82
Northern IowaMVC0.454.3935.2940.80-0.13-0.81
TulsaAmer5.633.5160.0051.271.130.09
Murray St.OVC2.931.9047.0654.13-0.170.16
Tennessee MartinOVC2.851.8461.1159.590.630.35
IUPUISum2.781.7941.1844.76-0.49-0.19
Fort WayneSum2.781.7968.7569.481.040.70
Saint Joseph'sA102.851.7850.0047.880.00-0.08
TCUB122.851.7875.0062.371.430.44
HawaiiBW2.781.7246.6747.92-0.19-0.07
New MexicoMWC2.781.7261.1160.030.620.35
San FranciscoWCC2.781.7261.1159.190.620.32
South Dakota St.Sum0.230.3431.5833.41-0.08-0.11
Oral RobertsSum0.470.3022.2229.94-0.26-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.290.2931.5835.67-0.11-0.08
Austin PeayOVC0.240.2422.2227.15-0.13-0.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.310.2422.2223.82-0.17-0.13
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.300.2441.1846.18-0.05-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.470.2052.6352.920.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.390.2058.8264.380.070.06
South DakotaSum0.160.1955.0054.820.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.1864.7162.600.070.05
Iowa St.B120.160.1864.7161.830.050.04
DePaulBE0.150.1842.1130.39-0.02-0.07
OklahomaB120.150.1847.0641.20-0.01-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.220.1784.2179.280.150.10
Oklahoma St.B120.240.1752.9450.580.010.00
George MasonA100.150.1564.7156.510.050.02
Ball St.MAC0.230.1564.7156.100.070.02
Wright St.Horz0.230.1561.1156.230.050.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.1521.4336.55-0.13-0.04
ToledoMAC0.240.1552.9452.870.010.01
MississippiSEC0.310.1561.1155.030.070.01
Saint LouisA100.150.1427.7824.32-0.06-0.07
SMUAmer0.080.1480.0077.810.050.08
UNLVMWC0.230.1447.3743.68-0.01-0.02
DenverSum0.080.1357.8955.950.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1352.6353.100.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1326.6727.53-0.07-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.1252.9454.710.000.01
XavierBE0.000.1272.2267.680.000.04
UMKCWAC0.150.1238.8939.92-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1235.2941.48-0.04-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.070.1258.8254.690.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1226.3236.97-0.08-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.1264.7157.710.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1218.7535.73-0.10-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1260.0053.460.030.01
Boise St.MWC0.150.1262.5063.120.040.03
Utah St.MWC0.150.1243.7543.98-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1277.7877.270.080.06
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1116.6718.29-0.10-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1188.8986.560.000.08
Colorado St.MWC0.150.1152.9450.600.010.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1147.3741.50-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.160.1168.4268.060.060.04
MemphisAmer0.160.1173.6867.200.080.04
NevadaMWC0.150.1184.2178.680.100.07
South FloridaAmer0.000.1135.2928.97-0.00-0.05
TulaneAmer0.160.1122.2220.60-0.09-0.07
UCFAmer0.000.1177.7867.020.000.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0911.1122.97-0.06-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.090.0984.2180.600.060.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0931.5832.58-0.06-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.0937.5044.22-0.04-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0913.3327.07-0.05-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.0935.2935.14-0.05-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.0983.3383.150.100.06
ArkansasSEC0.150.0977.7870.290.090.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.0917.6524.51-0.15-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.096.2511.88-0.13-0.07
Texas St.SB0.250.0953.3345.980.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.0952.9451.110.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.0968.4252.190.060.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0941.1837.57-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.250.0950.0053.120.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.0950.0066.300.000.03
WoffordSC0.150.0931.2540.50-0.06-0.02
DetroitHorz0.160.0616.6723.07-0.11-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.160.0637.5034.55-0.04-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0618.7527.05-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0637.5037.69-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0063.140.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0631.2545.45-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0652.6360.240.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0621.4330.89-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0647.3744.51-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0655.0049.300.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0650.0057.040.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0675.0074.470.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.160.0620.0026.44-0.10-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.0658.8261.440.030.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0631.5833.34-0.03-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.170.0660.0066.110.030.02
TroySB0.160.0647.0648.13-0.01-0.00
UtahP120.160.0668.7567.640.060.02
ButlerBE0.080.0684.2178.340.050.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0626.3228.81-0.04-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0642.1141.75-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.080.0655.5648.060.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0688.8986.040.060.04
Washington St.P120.080.0647.0633.39-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0647.3745.06-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0664.7165.930.050.02
DuquesneA100.070.0647.3741.47-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.0628.5734.62-0.06-0.02
BaylorB120.000.0694.1280.880.000.04
BYUWCC0.070.0670.0068.710.030.02
ConnecticutAmer0.160.0635.2941.77-0.05-0.01
DaytonA100.070.0676.4776.940.040.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0633.3330.90-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0638.8935.26-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.06100.0097.320.070.05
HofstraCAA0.070.0642.1143.49-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0694.4481.800.070.04
Kansas St.B120.000.0677.7862.260.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0668.7564.060.000.02
Little RockSB0.160.0656.2551.110.020.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0647.0644.32-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.070.0652.9438.780.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0612.5033.82-0.05-0.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0663.1660.390.020.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0663.1657.700.020.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0678.9570.150.040.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0640.0050.05-0.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.150.0688.2484.520.110.04
New OrleansSlnd0.160.0650.0052.970.000.00
Oregon St.P120.160.0616.6713.65-0.11-0.04
PacificWCC0.070.0636.8435.66-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0622.2221.17-0.00-0.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0647.0640.46-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0664.7167.120.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0688.8987.310.060.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0662.5063.260.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0650.0043.680.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0647.3745.83-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0614.2929.27-0.05-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6762.870.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.0640.0051.38-0.030.00
TexasB120.080.0638.8935.38-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0677.7865.330.050.02
USCP120.070.0680.0071.930.040.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0668.7570.270.030.02
WashingtonP120.160.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0683.3380.700.050.04
IndianaB100.080.0368.4264.610.030.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0384.2176.540.060.02
StetsonASun0.080.0329.4130.28-0.03-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.080.0340.0040.47-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0317.6529.60-0.06-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0353.3356.530.010.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0352.9450.950.000.00
HowardMEAC0.080.0312.5028.49-0.06-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0361.1153.360.020.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0366.6761.530.030.01
MichiganB100.080.0363.1658.150.020.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0378.9569.160.040.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0366.6758.230.030.01
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0325.0022.32-0.04-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0311.7618.03-0.06-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0312.5024.37-0.05-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0360.0061.270.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0326.3232.63-0.03-0.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0388.8987.510.060.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0333.3333.28-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0318.7527.90-0.05-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0389.4784.510.060.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6755.390.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0346.1546.15-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0352.9453.560.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0333.3333.71-0.03-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0358.8260.260.010.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0352.6348.070.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0328.5741.77-0.03-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0312.5022.04-0.05-0.02
LafayettePat0.080.0329.4123.71-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.070.0346.6747.34-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0342.8647.98-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.070.0357.1457.210.010.00
RichmondA100.080.0361.1157.870.020.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0320.0024.21-0.04-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0346.6738.45-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0318.7524.05-0.05-0.01
VCUA100.000.0373.6870.630.000.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7489.270.070.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0377.7862.530.040.01