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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:192.0
Current RPI:192
Expected SOS:215
Current SOS:215
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-7
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:24
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14192.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA90-76L0%0.0
11-22UNC Asheville (249.0)BSthH98-87W100%0.0
11-24Winthrop (210.0)BSthA64-69W100%0.0
12-1Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA59-63W100%0.0
12-3Western Carolina (220.0)SCH96-89W100%0.0
12-13UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH79-80L0%0.0
12-16Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA60-63W100%0.0
12-22VCU (15.0)A10A84-60L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee (96.0)SECA71-61L0%0.0
1-2VMI (286.0)SCH98-88W100%0.0
1-5Samford (305.0)SCA74-76W100%0.0
1-8Mercer (212.0)SCH71-70W100%0.0
1-10Chattanooga (112.0)SCH71-74L0%0.0
1-15Western Carolina (220.0)SCA76-83W100%0.0
1-17VMI (286.0)SCA85-79L0%0.0
1-22The Citadel (327.0)SCH70-59W100%0.0
1-24Wofford (47.0)SCA72-64L0%0.0
1-29Furman (293.0)SCA59-55L0%0.0
1-31North Carolina Central (128.0)MEACH61-59W100%0.0
2-5Wofford (47.0)SCH64-74L0%0.0
2-7Samford (305.0)SCH68-71L0%0.0
2-12UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCA62-65W100%0.0
2-14Furman (293.0)SCH66-59W100%0.0
2-16Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH87-79W100%0.0
2-21Chattanooga (112.0)SCA67-59L0%0.0
2-26The Citadel (327.0)SCA74-73L0%0.0
2-28Mercer (212.0)SCA69-64L0%0.0
3-7Western Carolina (220.0)SCN67-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC26.4926.4952.3852.381.261.26
Western CarolinaSC6.406.4044.4444.44-0.71-0.71
FurmanSC4.834.8327.5927.59-2.16-2.16
WoffordSC4.804.8080.0080.002.882.88
MercerSC4.744.7451.7251.720.160.16
VMISC4.704.7030.7730.77-1.81-1.81
UNC GreensboroSC4.704.7025.0025.00-2.35-2.35
The CitadelSC4.694.6928.0028.00-2.07-2.07
ChattanoogaSC4.684.6864.2964.291.341.34
SamfordSC4.654.6537.9337.93-1.12-1.12
Tennessee TechOVC1.991.9937.0437.04-0.52-0.52
UNC AshevilleBSth1.941.9444.4444.44-0.22-0.22
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.941.9462.9662.960.500.50
Morehead St.OVC1.911.9148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC1.901.9048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth1.851.8557.1457.140.260.26
ValparaisoHorz1.821.8282.7682.761.191.19
VCUA101.811.8173.5373.530.850.85
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.791.7978.5778.571.021.02
PresbyterianBSth0.290.2921.4321.43-0.17-0.17
Jacksonville St.OVC0.250.2534.4834.48-0.08-0.08
BelmontOVC0.240.2467.7467.740.090.09
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2268.9768.970.080.08
LongwoodBSth0.220.2228.1228.12-0.09-0.09
LibertyBSth0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.2110.3410.34-0.17-0.17
Charleston SouthernBSth0.210.2159.2659.260.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.07-0.07
High PointBSth0.180.1867.8667.860.070.07
CampbellBSth0.180.1824.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Gardner WebbBSth0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
OaklandHorz0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
VanderbiltSEC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
RadfordBSth0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
AlabamaSEC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
MinnesotaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
NavyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.1227.2727.27-0.06-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
West VirginiaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
UABCUSA0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.120.1273.3373.330.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
DukeACC0.110.1187.8887.880.090.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
UMKCWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
DavidsonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
ArmyPat0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
AuburnSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02