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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:55.0
Current RPI:55
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:173
Current Record:25-7
Expected Record:25-7
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:13-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-0
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-755.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fordham (215.0)A10H96-59W100%0.0
11-14Detroit (289.0)HorzH107-78W100%0.0
11-20UNC Wilmington (27.0)CAAA68-59L0%0.0
11-25Milwaukee (256.0)HorzN62-86W100%0.0
11-26South Dakota St. (160.0)SumN59-71W100%0.0
11-27UC Irvine (135.0)BWN72-66W100%0.0
12-10Dayton (30.0)A10A75-61L0%0.0
12-14Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA65-67W100%0.0
12-17Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA68-78W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee (82.0)SECH68-72L0%0.0
12-29Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH92-71W100%0.0
12-31VMI (329.0)SCH102-75W100%0.0
1-5The Citadel (282.0)SCA71-115W100%0.0
1-7Mercer (192.0)SCA58-67W100%0.0
1-12UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCH79-83L0%0.0
1-14Western Carolina (271.0)SCH75-52W100%0.0
1-19Furman (96.0)SCA75-62L0%0.0
1-22Wofford (190.0)SCH79-72W100%0.0
1-25Samford (170.0)SCA86-96W100%0.0
1-28Chattanooga (139.0)SCH76-71W100%0.0
2-2VMI (329.0)SCA71-81W100%0.0
2-6Wofford (190.0)SCA79-76L0%0.0
2-9The Citadel (282.0)SCH90-69W100%0.0
2-11Mercer (192.0)SCH88-71W100%0.0
2-15Samford (170.0)SCH79-77W100%0.0
2-18Chattanooga (139.0)SCA51-65W100%0.0
2-22Furman (96.0)SCH93-81W100%0.0
2-25Western Carolina (271.0)SCA52-68W100%0.0
2-27UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCA72-66L0%0.0
3-4Mercer (192.0)SCN73-66W100%0.0
3-5Samford (170.0)SCN81-72W100%0.0
3-6UNC Greensboro (95.0)SCN74-79W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC26.6026.6080.4180.4116.1716.17
SamfordSC5.745.7458.6258.620.990.99
UNC GreensboroSC5.735.7371.4371.432.462.46
MercerSC5.625.6248.1548.15-0.21-0.21
WoffordSC4.244.2442.8642.86-0.61-0.61
The CitadelSC4.244.2432.1432.14-1.51-1.51
VMISC4.204.2015.3815.38-2.91-2.91
ChattanoogaSC4.184.1862.9662.961.081.08
FurmanSC4.184.1864.2964.291.201.20
Western CarolinaSC4.164.1625.0025.00-2.08-2.08
MilwaukeeHorz1.691.6930.3030.30-0.67-0.67
TennesseeSEC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
DaytonA101.641.6475.8675.860.850.85
Mississippi St.SEC1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
UC IrvineBW1.631.6359.3859.380.310.31
South Dakota St.Sum1.631.6351.6151.610.050.05
DetroitHorz1.631.6324.1424.14-0.84-0.84
FordhamA101.591.5940.0040.00-0.32-0.32
Morehead St.OVC1.591.5944.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5642.3142.31-0.24-0.24
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.561.5683.8783.871.061.06
PresbyterianBSth0.260.2610.7110.71-0.20-0.20
CampbellBSth0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
DavidsonA100.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.180.1870.0070.000.070.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
RadfordBSth0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
George MasonA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
La SalleA100.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.150.1536.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
FloridaSEC0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
High PointBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
NavyPat0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.103.333.33-0.10-0.10
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1017.8617.86-0.07-0.07
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MississippiSEC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
OaklandHorz0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0737.0437.04-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0236.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
WyomingMWC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
NevadaMWC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
PacificWCC0.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01