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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:73.8
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:239
Current Record:5-1
Expected Record:23-6
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:15-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-1
Current OOC Record:5-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:74
Expected OOC SOS:283



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
28-134.20.33%
27-238.72.27%
26-345.67.51%
25-454.516.77%
24-564.621.94%
23-676.421.36%
22-788.815.79%
21-8103.38.48%
20-9117.83.68%
19-10135.51.38%
18-11152.80.38%
17-12177.30.07%
16-13184.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Fordham (205.9)A10H96-59W100%0.0
11-14Detroit (301.2)HorzH107-78W100%0.0
11-20UNC Wilmington (50.6)CAAA68-59L0%0.0
11-25Milwaukee (251.6)HorzN62-86W100%0.0
11-26South Dakota St. (254.3)SumA59-71W100%0.0
11-27UC Irvine (155.6)BWN72-66W100%0.0
12-10Dayton (36.4)A10A0-028%-6.9
12-14Mississippi St. (171.1)SECA0-065%4.7
12-17Morehead St. (211.9)OVCA0-075%8.2
12-22Tennessee (165.2)SECH0-078%9.4
12-29Savannah St. (339.8)MEACH0-099%27.7
12-31VMI (316.6)SCH0-097%22.9
1-5The Citadel (312.2)SCA0-094%18.5
1-7Mercer (163.6)SCA0-070%6.2
1-12UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCH0-084%11.7
1-14Western Carolina (291.4)SCH0-098%25.2
1-19Furman (185.5)SCA0-072%6.9
1-22Wofford (257.2)SCH0-091%16.4
1-25Samford (178.5)SCA0-071%6.7
1-28Chattanooga (104.3)SCH0-074%7.6
2-2VMI (316.6)SCA0-092%16.7
2-6Wofford (257.2)SCA0-080%10.2
2-9The Citadel (312.2)SCH0-098%24.7
2-11Mercer (163.6)SCH0-085%12.3
2-15Samford (178.5)SCH0-086%12.9
2-18Chattanooga (104.3)SCA0-055%1.4
2-22Furman (185.5)SCH0-086%13.1
2-25Western Carolina (291.4)SCA0-094%19.1
2-27UNC Greensboro (159.8)SCA0-068%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC28.7926.4288.4683.8322.1517.88
ChattanoogaSC0.004.4566.6772.430.002.00
VMISC0.004.450.0022.40-0.00-2.45
FurmanSC0.004.4320.0051.48-0.000.13
MercerSC0.004.4350.0055.290.000.47
SamfordSC0.004.4357.1458.350.000.74
Western CarolinaSC0.004.4316.6720.09-0.00-2.65
The CitadelSC0.004.4240.0028.82-0.00-1.87
WoffordSC0.004.420.0035.08-0.00-1.32
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.4266.6761.040.000.98
TennesseeSEC0.001.8425.0034.91-0.00-0.56
MilwaukeeHorz9.451.8440.0034.29-1.89-0.58
DaytonA100.001.8266.6772.460.000.82
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.8171.4343.300.00-0.24
South Dakota St.Sum10.071.8116.6738.86-6.71-0.40
UC IrvineBW10.221.8157.1456.651.460.24
DetroitHorz8.331.780.0020.20-8.33-1.06
FordhamA108.331.7566.6745.192.78-0.17
Morehead St.OVC0.001.7520.0042.59-0.00-0.26
Savannah St.MEAC0.001.720.0025.08-0.00-0.86
UNC WilmingtonCAA8.331.7280.0076.385.000.91
PresbyterianBSth0.000.2833.3327.13-0.00-0.13
CampbellBSth0.000.2125.0033.54-0.00-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1857.1447.320.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1850.0064.840.000.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1862.5056.500.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1857.1448.860.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.1583.3359.600.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.1533.3336.31-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1514.2928.66-0.00-0.06
RichmondA100.000.1557.1448.600.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.1550.0051.260.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1550.0052.140.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1571.4349.770.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.1533.3326.75-0.00-0.07
DavidsonA100.000.1583.3368.880.000.06
La SalleA100.000.1560.0051.780.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1385.7162.920.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1220.0048.38-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0027.77-0.00-0.05
West VirginiaB120.000.1283.3380.550.000.08
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1240.0041.65-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1228.5739.44-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.600.1214.2933.07-0.43-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1228.5730.29-0.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.000.1271.4365.740.000.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1240.0050.71-0.000.00
NavyPat0.000.1228.5743.62-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0061.810.000.03
George MasonA100.000.1257.1442.940.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1283.3355.200.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1216.6730.27-0.00-0.05
DuquesneA100.000.1237.5034.65-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1287.5075.320.000.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1266.6754.380.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1233.3348.71-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1250.0050.290.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1283.3378.430.000.07
St. BonaventureA100.000.1266.6770.740.000.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1285.7174.430.000.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.1271.4355.750.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1242.8637.60-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1266.6756.020.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1171.4346.010.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.11100.0080.780.000.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0971.4368.970.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.32-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.0940.0061.37-0.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.690.0942.8646.78-0.10-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0916.6731.91-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0023.46-0.00-0.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0950.0045.410.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0942.8661.90-0.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0985.7180.010.000.05
William & MaryCAA0.000.0940.0055.44-0.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.690.0985.7162.410.500.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0971.4368.100.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0960.0070.500.000.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0966.6753.460.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0975.0047.510.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0971.4370.330.000.04
VCUA100.000.0985.7178.150.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0920.0036.00-0.00-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0086.250.000.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0625.0038.72-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0657.1436.050.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.0620.0041.31-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.630.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.690.0633.3340.39-0.23-0.01
MemphisAmer0.690.0685.7159.740.500.01
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0616.6743.29-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP121.120.0683.3363.610.740.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
IdahoBSky0.600.0640.0050.88-0.120.00
IUPUISum0.000.0628.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0089.040.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.0628.5727.50-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0683.3361.150.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.44-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0671.4366.530.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.690.0633.3338.19-0.23-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
ToledoMAC0.690.0642.8650.36-0.100.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0650.0054.490.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0642.8636.82-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0350.0043.490.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.23-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0375.0074.990.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0357.1440.590.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0350.0038.430.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.690.0350.0055.850.000.00
IllinoisB100.690.0357.1442.660.10-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
New HampshireAE0.690.0350.0057.480.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0371.4358.670.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0340.0057.49-0.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
PacificWCC0.520.0350.0049.010.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0360.0057.170.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.520.0337.5036.24-0.13-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.520.0350.0053.560.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
WyomingMWC0.600.0360.0048.590.12-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.690.0380.0035.960.42-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.600.0320.0034.22-0.36-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.690.0357.1459.480.100.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.690.0385.7173.010.500.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0380.0068.320.000.01
RiderMAAC0.600.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.600.0342.8638.05-0.09-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.600.0360.0052.760.120.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.600.0357.1464.940.090.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.690.0316.6736.45-0.46-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01