live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 26, 2014.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:152.9
Current RPI:107
Expected SOS:255
Current SOS:204
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:100
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-452.20.04%
22-554.20.32%
21-670.00.94%
20-784.32.98%
19-898.36.25%
18-9114.111.71%
17-10130.016.97%
16-11148.218.64%
15-12167.016.64%
14-13188.012.53%
13-14209.17.09%
12-15230.13.65%
11-16252.51.66%
10-17273.70.45%
9-18289.00.09%
8-19315.50.02%
7-20326.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Valparaiso (169.8)HorzA90-76L0%0.0
11-22UNC Asheville (181.9)BSthH98-87W100%0.0
11-24Winthrop (215.1)BSthA64-69W100%0.0
12-1Morehead St. (136.9)OVCA0-027%-7.2
12-3Western Carolina (210.2)SCH0-069%5.9
12-13UNC Greensboro (322.1)SCH0-085%12.4
12-16Eastern Kentucky (162.3)OVCA0-037%-4.0
12-22VCU (23.7)A10A0-08%-16.9
12-31Tennessee (153.1)SECA0-026%-7.7
1-2VMI (275.5)SCH0-081%10.5
1-5Samford (303.4)SCA0-067%5.4
1-8Mercer (195.8)SCH0-065%4.7
1-10Chattanooga (232.7)SCH0-072%7.1
1-15Western Carolina (210.2)SCA0-046%-1.3
1-17VMI (275.5)SCA0-061%3.3
1-22The Citadel (324.3)SCH0-087%13.3
1-24Wofford (56.8)SCA0-016%-12.1
1-29Furman (300.9)SCA0-070%6.3
1-31North Carolina Central (182.4)MEACH0-057%2.2
2-5Wofford (56.8)SCH0-034%-4.9
2-7Samford (303.4)SCH0-085%12.6
2-12UNC Greensboro (322.1)SCA0-067%5.3
2-14Furman (300.9)SCH0-087%13.5
2-16Tennessee Tech (282.6)OVCH0-080%9.9
2-21Chattanooga (232.7)SCA0-050%-0.1
2-26The Citadel (324.3)SCA0-070%6.2
2-28Mercer (195.8)SCA0-042%-2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC31.9426.5076.9262.3917.206.57
VMISC0.004.8425.0037.03-0.00-1.25
The CitadelSC0.004.830.0029.35-0.00-1.99
Western CarolinaSC0.004.8140.0048.86-0.00-0.11
ChattanoogaSC0.004.8025.0048.54-0.00-0.14
MercerSC0.004.8033.3354.77-0.000.46
SamfordSC0.004.7833.3335.81-0.00-1.36
WoffordSC0.004.7780.0077.600.002.64
UNC GreensboroSC0.004.770.0028.98-0.00-2.00
FurmanSC0.004.7625.0028.33-0.00-2.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.0850.0036.700.00-0.55
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.01100.0057.260.000.29
UNC AshevilleBSth16.671.9933.3354.72-5.560.19
Morehead St.OVC0.001.9933.3358.53-0.000.34
TennesseeSEC0.001.9850.0043.010.00-0.28
WinthropBSth16.671.9250.0055.430.000.21
ValparaisoHorz16.671.8966.6753.635.560.14
VCUA100.001.8880.0072.450.000.85
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.850.0067.34-0.000.64
PresbyterianBSth0.000.330.0022.89-0.00-0.18
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2725.0031.71-0.00-0.10
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.230.0025.37-0.00-0.11
BelmontOVC0.000.2380.0076.610.000.12
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2120.0031.47-0.00-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2140.0057.50-0.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.2120.0029.02-0.00-0.09
High PointBSth0.000.2175.0055.980.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.2120.0022.02-0.00-0.12
CampbellBSth0.000.200.0034.56-0.00-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.2066.6753.550.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2033.3330.11-0.00-0.08
Savannah St.MEAC2.780.1840.0033.60-0.56-0.06
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1760.0056.970.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1616.6726.44-0.00-0.08
Austin PeayOVC0.000.160.0030.92-0.00-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1625.0049.12-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.000.1425.0046.64-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.14100.0071.860.000.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1440.0053.46-0.000.01
NavyPat0.000.1420.0029.93-0.00-0.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.1460.0036.000.00-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.140.0036.09-0.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1366.6747.140.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1325.0040.45-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.13100.0083.600.000.09
MinnesotaB100.000.1350.0055.290.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.13100.0069.720.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1333.3367.86-0.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1350.0040.550.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1380.0058.430.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0045.580.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.13100.0053.810.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1366.6756.860.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.1375.0069.280.000.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1150.0073.640.000.05
North CarolinaACC0.000.1075.0067.420.000.04
East CarolinaAmer2.080.1025.0035.38-1.04-0.03
South CarolinaSEC2.080.1050.0051.520.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0034.64-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1075.0068.260.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0034.53-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1025.0044.18-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1066.6741.320.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.10100.0071.480.000.04
LipscombASun0.000.100.0045.69-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0061.080.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.1075.0077.520.000.05
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1025.0039.50-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC2.080.1066.6751.600.690.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0065.430.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0920.0042.29-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0980.0071.830.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0018.42-0.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0027.68-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.64-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0030.81-0.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0035.63-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0733.3345.47-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0740.0038.71-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0775.0072.040.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0760.0037.550.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0027.510.00-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0069.410.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0068.200.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.14-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0780.0071.650.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0720.0033.15-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0733.3330.44-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0064.150.000.02
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.120.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0053.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0089.070.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0714.2931.08-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0079.750.000.04
DetroitHorz0.000.0760.0058.400.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0052.420.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0740.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0720.0031.23-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0780.0057.110.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0760.0055.990.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6749.610.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0720.0034.26-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC2.080.0740.0036.41-0.42-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0740.0052.52-0.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0720.0038.27-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0086.460.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0018.95-0.00-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0032.41-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0067.690.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0680.0079.380.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.310.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0038.82-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.970.000.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.0675.0056.120.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3338.74-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0025.58-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3357.92-0.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0660.0057.880.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0683.3368.600.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0666.6761.870.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0021.73-0.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0064.050.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.370.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0060.970.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0425.0039.67-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0416.6745.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0425.0045.71-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0420.0043.55-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.040.0015.65-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0416.6739.87-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0425.0048.11-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0460.0067.390.000.01
ClemsonACC2.780.0460.0050.770.560.00
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.000.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.94-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0079.800.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0016.41-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.080.0316.6731.72-1.39-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.13-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0024.98-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0350.0064.920.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0366.6762.950.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0380.0046.930.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0350.0046.630.00-0.00
MaineAE2.080.030.0019.27-2.08-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.920.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0055.640.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.03100.0051.720.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3339.69-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0040.80-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0366.6739.850.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0028.760.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.500.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0022.25-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0350.0044.930.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0074.750.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.700.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0375.0071.150.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0054.340.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.01-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0064.230.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.620.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3366.600.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.900.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0380.0074.520.000.01
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.060.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.350.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0039.490.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.090.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0340.0060.24-0.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0077.100.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0073.600.000.01