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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:127.1
Current RPI:207
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:339
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:17-10
Current Conf Record:1-1
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-4
Current OOC Record:4-1
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:66



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-343.00.02%
23-447.70.16%
22-558.10.86%
21-670.03.16%
20-783.28.80%
19-898.113.94%
18-9112.919.57%
17-10130.219.31%
16-11147.416.53%
15-12166.69.91%
14-13187.05.15%
13-14207.61.97%
12-15229.40.47%
11-16251.20.12%
10-17264.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Valparaiso (100.6)HorzA90-76L0%0.0
11-22UNC Asheville (219.5)BSthH98-87W100%0.0
11-24Winthrop (252.4)BSthA64-69W100%0.0
12-1Morehead St. (209.0)OVCA59-63W100%0.0
12-3Western Carolina (222.4)SCH96-89W100%0.0
12-13UNC Greensboro (281.9)SCH79-80L0%0.0
12-16Eastern Kentucky (174.2)OVCA60-63W100%0.0
12-22VCU (25.4)A10A0-012%-14.0
12-31Tennessee (131.7)SECA0-029%-6.5
1-2VMI (270.6)SCH0-083%11.4
1-5Samford (323.6)SCA0-073%7.4
1-8Mercer (249.1)SCH0-081%10.3
1-10Chattanooga (207.2)SCH0-077%8.6
1-15Western Carolina (222.4)SCA0-047%-1.0
1-17VMI (270.6)SCA0-059%2.6
1-22The Citadel (316.3)SCH0-088%14.1
1-24Wofford (59.2)SCA0-020%-10.1
1-29Furman (290.9)SCA0-067%5.3
1-31North Carolina Central (149.1)MEACH0-062%3.5
2-5Wofford (59.2)SCH0-046%-1.3
2-7Samford (323.6)SCH0-091%16.1
2-12UNC Greensboro (281.9)SCA0-060%2.9
2-14Furman (290.9)SCH0-088%14.1
2-16Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCH0-075%8.0
2-21Chattanooga (207.2)SCA0-049%-0.2
2-26The Citadel (316.3)SCA0-068%5.4
2-28Mercer (249.1)SCA0-055%1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC28.0126.4872.9767.3412.879.18
VMISC0.004.8233.3339.68-0.00-0.99
The CitadelSC0.004.8116.6731.20-0.00-1.81
Western CarolinaSC7.144.7925.0047.27-3.57-0.26
ChattanoogaSC0.004.7944.4452.23-0.000.21
MercerSC0.004.7937.5042.57-0.00-0.71
SamfordSC0.004.7633.3332.35-0.00-1.68
WoffordSC0.004.7677.7876.810.002.55
UNC GreensboroSC7.144.7512.5035.01-5.36-1.43
FurmanSC0.004.7525.0029.82-0.00-1.92
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.0850.0050.690.000.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC7.502.0150.0057.810.000.31
UNC AshevilleBSth7.141.9916.6747.34-4.76-0.11
Morehead St.OVC7.141.9920.0047.84-4.29-0.09
TennesseeSEC0.001.9850.0045.310.00-0.19
WinthropBSth7.141.9233.3349.07-2.38-0.04
ValparaisoHorz7.651.8977.7868.734.250.71
VCUA100.001.8870.0070.960.000.79
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.001.8544.4471.45-0.000.79
PresbyterianBSth0.720.330.008.71-0.72-0.27
Jacksonville St.OVC1.020.2755.5638.460.11-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.230.0016.94-0.00-0.15
BelmontOVC0.000.2360.0062.430.000.06
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.2137.5050.07-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.2125.0035.05-0.00-0.06
High PointBSth0.400.2162.5056.250.100.03
LongwoodBSth0.400.2120.0026.68-0.24-0.10
CampbellBSth0.000.2025.0044.80-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.2020.0034.02-0.00-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.400.2042.8650.31-0.060.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1936.3633.75-0.00-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC1.530.1718.1827.98-0.97-0.08
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1766.6770.610.000.07
OaklandHorz0.720.1630.0032.16-0.29-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1622.2230.96-0.00-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1637.5048.87-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1662.5059.460.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.1450.0055.940.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1450.0044.640.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.1420.0021.41-0.00-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.000.1455.5638.100.00-0.03
MarylandB100.510.1490.9167.700.420.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.400.1350.0053.700.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1333.3339.12-0.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.13100.0087.440.000.10
MinnesotaB100.400.1377.7864.890.220.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1390.0066.760.000.04
Murray St.OVC0.360.1355.5661.640.040.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.400.1345.4544.47-0.04-0.01
UABCUSA0.830.1333.3338.24-0.28-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1355.5653.800.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.1366.6766.690.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.400.1366.6755.660.130.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.400.1350.0039.320.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.400.1375.0060.600.200.03
East CarolinaAmer0.510.1037.5038.59-0.13-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1011.1143.93-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.400.1070.0071.470.160.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0024.33-0.00-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1044.4447.39-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1062.5066.710.000.03
Green BayHorz0.320.1075.0078.710.160.06
South CarolinaSEC0.510.1062.5064.360.130.03
Wake ForestACC0.510.1050.0038.030.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.1025.0042.50-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.320.1077.7869.420.180.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1025.0033.13-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0922.2242.15-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0980.0072.470.000.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.060.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0977.7865.350.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.320.0970.0066.610.130.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0757.1461.280.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0750.0037.400.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0772.7373.120.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0742.8632.44-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0777.7868.810.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0014.70-0.00-0.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0012.28-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0775.0071.470.000.03
IUPUISum0.510.0720.0026.18-0.31-0.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0710.0018.78-0.00-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.23-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0720.0029.28-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.07100.0066.280.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0785.7161.530.000.02
AuburnSEC0.510.0744.4435.62-0.06-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0744.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.400.0771.4363.540.170.02
ElonCAA0.000.0737.5048.14-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0718.1821.69-0.00-0.04
IndianaB100.400.0780.0057.470.240.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0733.3334.56-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0744.4456.92-0.000.01
KentuckySEC0.510.07100.0094.670.510.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.37-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.360.0644.4431.65-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.400.060.0012.02-0.40-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0077.970.000.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.44-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4439.99-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.400.0662.5071.700.100.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.380.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0644.4444.99-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8638.32-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6725.04-0.00-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.75-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.090.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.0688.8963.530.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0675.0058.750.000.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.54-0.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0657.1456.560.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.430.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.830.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.69-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.36-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.26-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0677.7862.380.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.270.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.690.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.040.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0650.0057.040.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0034.010.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.95-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.510.0455.5665.660.060.01
ClemsonACC0.510.0466.6745.400.17-0.00
BYUWCC0.510.0366.6767.780.170.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.600.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.290.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.16-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0044.01-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0310.0041.11-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0355.5660.050.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.760.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.04-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0037.19-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0350.0056.370.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0340.0050.48-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.510.0316.6727.11-0.34-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.360.0320.0038.33-0.21-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.360.0328.5736.94-0.15-0.01
DrakeMVC0.360.0320.0020.14-0.21-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.730.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.810.000.01
MaineAE0.360.0311.1121.17-0.28-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.360.0370.0058.440.140.01
PortlandWCC0.360.0366.6748.960.12-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.920.000.00
USCP120.000.0360.0037.230.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.320.0360.0065.060.060.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.71-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.320.0325.0038.24-0.16-0.01
Ohio St.B100.320.0390.0084.620.260.02
UNLVMWC0.320.0375.0050.770.160.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.870.000.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.540.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.340.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.640.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6752.510.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0041.530.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0311.1144.96-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0377.7869.890.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0366.6764.900.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.530.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.120.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
OregonP120.000.0366.6759.200.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.580.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.200.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0360.0059.520.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.310.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02