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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:85.0
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:16-5
Expected Conf Record:16-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:62



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1185.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Green Bay (112.0)HorzH103-90W100%0.0
11-20Villanova (4.0)BEA86-51L0%0.0
11-22Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA68-69W100%0.0
11-24Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthA77-76L0%0.0
11-28UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAH73-94L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA63-61L0%0.0
12-15UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthA84-64L0%0.0
12-18Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH87-81W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee (143.0)SECA76-67L0%0.0
12-30Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH75-72W100%0.0
1-2Western Carolina (166.0)SCA66-82W100%0.0
1-4North Carolina Central (310.0)MEACA68-72W100%0.0
1-9UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCH86-83W100%0.0
1-11VMI (316.0)SCH88-51W100%0.0
1-14Samford (252.0)SCA77-81W100%0.0
1-16Chattanooga (50.0)SCA94-84L0%0.0
1-21Mercer (194.0)SCH65-63W100%0.0
1-23The Citadel (322.0)SCH101-92W100%0.0
1-28Wofford (199.0)SCA87-73L0%0.0
1-30Furman (167.0)SCA74-70L0%0.0
2-4VMI (316.0)SCA60-71W100%0.0
2-6UNC Greensboro (237.0)SCA65-68W100%0.0
2-11Samford (252.0)SCH94-90W100%0.0
2-13Chattanooga (50.0)SCH68-76L0%0.0
2-15Western Carolina (166.0)SCH83-77W100%0.0
2-18The Citadel (322.0)SCA51-67W100%0.0
2-20Mercer (194.0)SCA74-77W100%0.0
2-25Furman (167.0)SCH80-75W100%0.0
2-27Wofford (199.0)SCH71-66W100%0.0
3-5Mercer (194.0)SCN81-65W100%0.0
3-6Furman (167.0)SCN84-76W100%0.0
3-7Chattanooga (50.0)SCN73-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC26.6026.6069.7269.7210.4910.49
ChattanoogaSC5.765.7682.7682.763.773.77
FurmanSC5.705.7053.5753.570.410.41
MercerSC5.685.6860.7160.711.221.22
Western CarolinaSC4.294.2946.4346.43-0.31-0.31
SamfordSC4.244.2441.3841.38-0.73-0.73
WoffordSC4.194.1942.8642.86-0.60-0.60
The CitadelSC4.184.1825.9325.93-2.01-2.01
UNC GreensboroSC4.184.1840.7440.74-0.77-0.77
VMISC4.154.1524.0024.00-2.16-2.16
UNC AshevilleBSth1.771.7763.3363.330.470.47
Morehead St.OVC1.751.7560.7160.710.370.37
Tennessee TechOVC1.741.7459.2659.260.320.32
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.701.7048.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC1.681.6859.3859.380.320.32
Green BayHorz1.611.6165.6265.620.500.50
Charleston SouthernBSth1.611.6119.2319.23-0.99-0.99
TennesseeSEC1.611.6142.4242.42-0.24-0.24
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.591.5975.8675.860.820.82
VillanovaBE1.591.5984.8584.851.111.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.561.5635.7135.71-0.45-0.45
PresbyterianBSth0.350.3528.5728.57-0.15-0.15
Jacksonville St.OVC0.290.2920.6920.69-0.17-0.17
CampbellBSth0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Gardner WebbBSth0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.210.2164.2964.290.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.210.2148.4848.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.210.2134.4834.48-0.06-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
NavyPat0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1864.2964.290.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
ButlerBE0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
RadfordBSth0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1657.6957.690.020.02
DavidsonA100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
AuburnSEC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Ohio St.B100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
WinthropBSth0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
IllinoisB100.130.1344.1244.12-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TulaneAmer0.100.1035.2935.29-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
LouisvilleACC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
NebraskaB100.100.1047.0647.06-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
George WashingtonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
OklahomaB120.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01