East Tennessee St.

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	179.0
Current RPI:	179
Expected SOS:	251
Current SOS:	251
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-5
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	168
Expected OOC SOS:	273

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	179.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Virginia Tech (116.0)	ACC	A	64-53	L	0%
11-15	Appalachian St. (258.0)	SC	H	81-68	W	100%
11-19	Troy (260.0)	SB	H	81-71	W	100%
11-22	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	A	69-70	W	100%
11-29	Troy (260.0)	SB	A	79-71	L	0%
12-1	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	A	73-65	L	0%
12-3	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	A	72-63	L	0%
12-7	Tennessee Tech (138.0)	OVC	A	83-74	L	0%
12-10	Appalachian St. (258.0)	SC	A	48-65	W	100%
12-23	Tennessee (86.0)	SEC	A	66-63	L	0%
1-1	Clemson (151.0)	ACC	A	65-58	L	0%
1-4	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	H	88-73	W	100%
1-7	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	H	76-61	W	100%
1-9	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	H	73-69	W	100%
1-14	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	A	58-72	W	100%
1-16	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	A	63-64	W	100%
1-21	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	H	65-73	L	0%
1-23	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	H	70-82	L	0%
1-27	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	A	58-54	L	0%
1-30	James Madison (261.0)	CAA	H	70-56	W	100%
2-4	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	A	59-64	W	100%
2-6	Mercer (132.0)	ASun	A	54-46	L	0%
2-11	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	H	65-50	W	100%
2-13	Jacksonville (264.0)	ASun	H	55-61	L	0%
2-18	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	A	80-58	L	0%
2-20	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	A	57-66	W	100%
2-23	Stetson (267.0)	ASun	H	72-56	W	100%
2-25	Florida Gulf Coast (208.0)	ASun	H	84-71	W	100%
3-1	North Florida (180.0)	ASun	N	68-66	W	100%
3-2	Belmont (58.0)	ASun	N	69-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
East Tennessee St.	ASun	26.64	26.64	56.92	56.92	3.69	3.69
Belmont	ASun	6.11	6.11	76.67	76.67	3.26	3.26
North Florida	ASun	5.95	5.95	53.57	53.57	0.43	0.43
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.50	4.50	44.83	44.83	-0.47	-0.47
Mercer	ASun	4.43	4.43	66.67	66.67	1.48	1.48
Lipscomb	ASun	4.39	4.39	39.29	39.29	-0.94	-0.94
Jacksonville	ASun	4.39	4.39	25.00	25.00	-2.19	-2.19
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.37	4.37	7.14	7.14	-3.74	-3.74
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.36	4.36	60.71	60.71	0.94	0.94
Stetson	ASun	4.33	4.33	26.92	26.92	-2.00	-2.00
Troy	SB	3.41	3.41	32.00	32.00	-1.23	-1.23
Appalachian St.	SC	3.36	3.36	40.74	40.74	-0.62	-0.62
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.84	1.84	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.83	1.83	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Clemson	ACC	1.74	1.74	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	1.73	1.73	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Charlotte	A10	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Tennessee	SEC	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Miami FL	ACC	0.30	0.30	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.27	0.27	80.00	80.00	0.16	0.16
Austin Peay	OVC	0.26	0.26	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Florida	SEC	0.25	0.25	69.70	69.70	0.10	0.10
Chattanooga	SC	0.25	0.25	27.59	27.59	-0.11	-0.11
Furman	SC	0.25	0.25	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.22	0.22	32.14	32.14	-0.08	-0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Memphis	CUSA	0.21	0.21	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
Duke	ACC	0.21	0.21	81.82	81.82	0.13	0.13
NC Greensboro	SC	0.20	0.20	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.19	0.19	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Winthrop	BSth	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	96.43	96.43	0.13	0.13
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	6.90	6.90	-0.12	-0.12
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
The Citadel	SC	0.14	0.14	14.29	14.29	-0.10	-0.10
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	3.12	3.12	-0.12	-0.12
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.11	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02