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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:206.0
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:245
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:198



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15206.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA80-75L0%0.0
11-12Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH63-71L0%0.0
11-16Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA57-50L0%0.0
11-19Winthrop (168.0)BSthH66-76L0%0.0
11-21Samford (313.0)SCH89-75W100%0.0
11-23Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH66-58W100%0.0
11-27Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA98-83L0%0.0
11-30Marshall (276.0)CUSAH88-78W100%0.0
12-4Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA74-80W100%0.0
12-7Georgia Tech (157.0)ACCA87-57L0%0.0
12-21Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH84-79W100%0.0
12-29Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH73-62W100%0.0
1-4Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA55-71W100%0.0
1-6Mercer (81.0)ASunA73-63L0%0.0
1-9Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH80-82L0%0.0
1-11Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH74-65W100%0.0
1-16Stetson (333.0)ASunA64-58L0%0.0
1-18Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA90-62L0%0.0
1-23North Florida (189.0)ASunH99-93W100%0.0
1-25Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH76-75W100%0.0
1-31Mercer (81.0)ASunH77-90L0%0.0
2-2Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH86-73W100%0.0
2-6Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA50-64W100%0.0
2-8Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA88-96W100%0.0
2-10USC Upstate (163.0)ASunH63-75L0%0.0
2-13Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunH89-81W100%0.0
2-15Stetson (333.0)ASunH93-66W100%0.0
2-20Jacksonville (282.0)ASunA91-86L0%0.0
2-22North Florida (189.0)ASunA85-88W100%0.0
2-28USC Upstate (163.0)ASunA79-73L0%0.0
3-4Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH89-88W100%0.0
3-6Florida Gulf Coast (146.0)ASunA69-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.ASun26.5626.5652.2152.211.171.17
Florida Gulf CoastASun5.715.7162.0762.071.381.38
LipscombASun5.655.6550.0050.000.000.00
MercerASun4.274.2772.4172.411.911.91
USC UpstateASun4.224.2251.7251.720.150.15
StetsonASun4.144.1420.6920.69-2.42-2.42
JacksonvilleASun4.134.1334.6234.62-1.27-1.27
North FloridaASun4.114.1150.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun4.084.0832.1432.14-1.46-1.46
Kennesaw St.ASun4.084.0814.8114.81-2.87-2.87
Austin PeayOVC3.283.2838.4638.46-0.76-0.76
SamfordSC1.801.8034.4834.48-0.56-0.56
Tennessee TechOVC1.771.7746.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Morehead St.OVC1.771.7756.6756.670.240.24
MarshallCUSA1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
CharlotteCUSA1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Georgia TechACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.611.6196.4396.431.501.50
Western KentuckySB1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
WinthropBSth1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
BelmontOVC0.340.3471.8871.880.150.15
Tennessee MartinOVC0.320.3220.6920.69-0.19-0.19
Murray St.OVC0.290.2959.2659.260.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.290.2913.7913.79-0.21-0.21
FIUCUSA0.230.2346.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Appalachian St.SC0.130.1319.2319.23-0.08-0.08
DavidsonSC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
FurmanSC0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
ClemsonACC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
FloridaSEC0.110.1194.1294.120.100.10
LibertyBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
HartfordAE0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
NavyPat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0551.8551.850.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02