East Tennessee St.

Conference:	ASun
Expected RPI:	275.0
Current RPI:	275
Expected SOS:	199
Current SOS:	199
Current Record:	9-22
Expected Record:	9-22
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-10
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	266
Expected OOC SOS:	39

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-22	275.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	80-62	L	0%
11-17	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	62-65	L	0%
11-20	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	A	57-59	W	100%
11-23	Georgia (140.0)	SEC	A	54-38	L	0%
12-5	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	70-45	L	0%
12-8	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	78-55	L	0%
12-14	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	A	77-55	L	0%
12-18	Charleston Southern (189.0)	BSth	H	51-72	L	0%
12-22	Arizona (16.0)	P12	N	53-73	L	0%
12-23	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	84-61	L	0%
12-25	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	N	49-67	L	0%
1-2	Virginia Commonwealth (24.0)	A10	H	58-109	L	0%
1-5	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	60-56	L	0%
1-7	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	A	44-49	W	100%
1-10	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	70-72	L	0%
1-12	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	H	85-75	W	100%
1-17	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	A	78-59	L	0%
1-19	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	60-70	W	100%
1-24	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	H	80-83	L	0%
1-26	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	89-75	W	100%
1-28	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	A	88-71	L	0%
1-31	Northern Kentucky (264.0)	ASun	H	68-70	L	0%
2-2	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	H	90-88	W	100%
2-7	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	67-43	L	0%
2-9	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	61-62	W	100%
2-14	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	79-70	W	100%
2-16	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	54-71	L	0%
2-21	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	A	77-64	L	0%
2-23	Jacksonville (281.0)	ASun	A	58-61	W	100%
3-1	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	H	56-88	L	0%
3-7	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	N	67-46	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
East Tennessee St.	ASun	26.47	26.47	31.13	31.13	-9.99	-9.99
Stetson	ASun	5.77	5.77	44.44	44.44	-0.64	-0.64
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	4.35	4.35	70.00	70.00	1.74	1.74
Mercer	ASun	4.33	4.33	63.33	63.33	1.15	1.15
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.24	4.24	41.38	41.38	-0.73	-0.73
Lipscomb	ASun	4.24	4.24	37.04	37.04	-1.10	-1.10
Jacksonville	ASun	4.21	4.21	39.29	39.29	-0.90	-0.90
North Florida	ASun	4.19	4.19	37.93	37.93	-1.01	-1.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	4.15	4.15	40.00	40.00	-0.83	-0.83
Kennesaw St.	ASun	4.14	4.14	10.71	10.71	-3.25	-3.25
Charleston Southern	BSth	3.25	3.25	57.69	57.69	0.50	0.50
Mississippi	SEC	1.75	1.75	75.76	75.76	0.90	0.90
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	1.74	1.74	75.76	75.76	0.90	0.90
Georgia	SEC	1.74	1.74	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
San Francisco	WCC	1.70	1.70	42.86	42.86	-0.24	-0.24
Arizona	P12	1.67	1.67	77.42	77.42	0.92	0.92
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.67	1.67	34.62	34.62	-0.51	-0.51
North Carolina	ACC	1.64	1.64	68.75	68.75	0.61	0.61
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.64	1.64	38.71	38.71	-0.37	-0.37
Hawaii	BW	1.64	1.64	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
James Madison	CAA	1.61	1.61	57.58	57.58	0.24	0.24
Miami FL	ACC	0.36	0.36	81.82	81.82	0.23	0.23
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.23	0.23	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.21	0.21	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.20	0.20	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.19	0.19	80.00	80.00	0.12	0.12
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.17	0.17	84.38	84.38	0.12	0.12
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.17	0.17	42.31	42.31	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.16	0.16	20.69	20.69	-0.09	-0.09
Richmond	A10	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.15	0.15	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Liberty	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00