live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


East Tennessee St.

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:199
Current Record:13-9
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:8-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:72



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-978.11.97%
19-1092.611.75%
18-11109.928.19%
17-12128.531.48%
16-13146.119.40%
15-14161.96.04%
14-15177.31.14%
13-16196.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for East Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Green Bay (161.5)HorzH103-90W100%0.0
11-20Villanova (3.7)BEA86-51L0%0.0
11-22Georgia Tech (87.7)ACCA68-69W100%0.0
11-24Charleston Southern (275.3)BSthA77-76L0%0.0
11-28UNC Wilmington (62.0)CAAH73-94L0%0.0
12-2Tennessee Tech (108.4)OVCA63-61L0%0.0
12-15UNC Asheville (134.8)BSthA84-64L0%0.0
12-18Eastern Kentucky (198.0)OVCH87-81W100%0.0
12-22Tennessee (111.3)SECA76-67L0%0.0
12-30Morehead St. (162.5)OVCH75-72W100%0.0
1-2Western Carolina (239.8)SCA66-82W100%0.0
1-4North Carolina Central (320.6)MEACA68-72W100%0.0
1-9UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCH86-83W100%0.0
1-11VMI (335.3)SCH88-51W100%0.0
1-14Samford (248.8)SCA77-81W100%0.0
1-16Chattanooga (41.8)SCA94-84L0%0.0
1-21Mercer (132.1)SCH65-63W100%0.0
1-23The Citadel (306.8)SCH101-92W100%0.0
1-28Wofford (187.5)SCA87-73L0%0.0
1-30Furman (157.5)SCA74-70L0%0.0
2-4VMI (335.3)SCA60-71W100%0.0
2-6UNC Greensboro (270.6)SCA65-68W100%0.0
2-11Samford (248.8)SCH0-073%6.6
2-13Chattanooga (41.8)SCH0-035%-4.2
2-15Western Carolina (239.8)SCH0-077%8.0
2-18The Citadel (306.8)SCA0-077%8.1
2-20Mercer (132.1)SCA0-030%-5.7
2-25Furman (157.5)SCH0-064%4.0
2-27Wofford (187.5)SCH0-065%4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

East Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


East Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  East Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
East Tennessee St.SC26.3426.4467.0263.098.976.92
Western CarolinaSC3.104.4930.0032.82-1.24-1.54
FurmanSC3.154.4752.1753.060.140.27
WoffordSC3.054.4640.9144.65-0.55-0.48
MercerSC2.944.4472.7371.561.341.91
SamfordSC2.994.4443.4844.77-0.39-0.46
The CitadelSC2.934.4333.3331.48-0.98-1.64
UNC GreensboroSC5.114.4330.0033.45-2.04-1.47
ChattanoogaSC2.924.3986.3686.972.133.25
VMISC5.104.3516.6718.18-3.40-2.77
UNC AshevilleBSth2.531.9463.6464.930.690.58
Morehead St.OVC2.471.9452.3854.400.120.17
Tennessee TechOVC2.421.9163.6463.000.660.50
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.431.8854.1751.960.200.07
Georgia TechACC2.471.8756.5253.710.320.14
Charleston SouthernBSth2.371.7920.0023.62-1.42-0.94
Green BayHorz2.371.7857.1458.010.340.29
TennesseeSEC2.371.7847.8346.40-0.10-0.13
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.321.7575.0072.381.160.78
VillanovaBE2.321.7586.9686.431.711.28
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.271.7226.3234.53-1.08-0.53
PresbyterianBSth0.370.3825.0026.87-0.18-0.17
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.3124.0024.17-0.13-0.16
CampbellBSth0.370.2928.5729.64-0.16-0.12
Gardner WebbBSth0.310.2545.4547.54-0.03-0.01
High PointBSth0.260.2255.0057.460.030.03
ButlerBE0.260.2170.8368.990.110.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.240.2168.1865.160.090.06
Austin PeayOVC0.240.2140.0042.85-0.05-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.250.2150.0053.000.000.01
NavyPat0.260.1964.0064.480.070.06
RadfordBSth0.210.1950.0051.280.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.1960.0060.100.030.04
LibertyBSth0.200.1934.7836.51-0.06-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1963.6460.930.040.04
BelmontOVC0.150.1968.0066.660.050.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1821.7423.40-0.08-0.10
ElonCAA0.210.1652.1750.420.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.1639.1341.03-0.06-0.03
DavidsonA100.160.1561.9058.060.040.02
PittsburghACC0.150.1572.7367.630.070.05
North CarolinaACC0.200.1583.3378.400.130.08
ClemsonACC0.110.1558.3358.370.020.02
Ohio St.B100.160.1360.0055.540.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.1331.8236.14-0.02-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1329.1733.11-0.07-0.04
WinthropBSth0.160.1365.0063.440.050.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1325.0025.09-0.05-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.200.1222.7324.97-0.11-0.06
IllinoisB100.100.1245.8344.11-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.1217.3920.66-0.13-0.07
MarshallCUSA0.200.1250.0051.190.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1228.5733.35-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1234.7840.89-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.100.1286.9682.150.070.08
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1226.0929.18-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.150.1256.0052.840.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1259.0955.220.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1286.9680.370.070.07
AuburnSEC0.140.1239.1335.44-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.1279.1776.070.060.06
NebraskaB100.140.1252.0050.780.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1258.3359.960.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.160.1052.0048.860.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1038.1037.70-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.160.0913.6418.18-0.11-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.100.0943.4837.81-0.01-0.02
LipscombASun0.100.0925.0029.28-0.05-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.0929.1733.74-0.04-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.160.0956.5257.020.020.01
Murray St.OVC0.150.0945.4549.69-0.01-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.0913.6415.80-0.11-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0947.8350.01-0.010.00
DelawareCAA0.160.0921.7423.32-0.09-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0933.3335.05-0.05-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0931.8232.69-0.04-0.03
AkronMAC0.150.0982.6181.130.100.06
StanfordP120.150.0950.0046.530.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.150.0941.6739.91-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0933.3330.27-0.02-0.03
TulaneAmer0.100.0936.0034.92-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.090.0875.0072.630.050.04
Penn St.B100.110.0750.0046.760.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0720.0022.26-0.06-0.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0665.2264.230.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0670.8369.490.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.0645.8346.63-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.020.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.840.020.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0652.1754.140.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0672.0071.540.020.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0652.3854.070.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0038.97-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0670.8368.000.020.02
IPFWSum0.100.0670.8368.590.040.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.73-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.100.0650.0044.680.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0622.7323.25-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0669.5764.900.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0640.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0666.6765.220.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.580.020.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.85-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.050.0633.3333.70-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0635.0038.52-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0654.5554.970.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.22-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.650.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0640.0045.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0633.3333.07-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0668.0067.990.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0633.3334.19-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0666.6762.210.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.310.020.03
TroySB0.050.0623.8126.72-0.02-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.030.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0675.0075.330.050.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0622.7327.18-0.05-0.03
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.040.030.01
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.01-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0664.0057.920.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0670.8367.820.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0672.0069.150.040.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0670.8368.100.040.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0625.0023.45-0.02-0.03
VirginiaACC0.090.0683.3378.470.060.03
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.860.040.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.25-0.05-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0359.0961.310.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0370.8367.980.020.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0336.3638.93-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0347.8348.87-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0371.4368.750.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0319.0525.90-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0336.3636.20-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.12-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0361.9065.310.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.060.030.02
IowaB100.050.0382.6180.520.030.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.190.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.05-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.590.020.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.42-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.95-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.68-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.430.020.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.72-0.05-0.03
PacificWCC0.050.0325.0028.89-0.03-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0362.5056.960.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.160.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.65-0.03-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.32-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0379.1778.060.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.21-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.970.010.00
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0329.1726.73-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.89-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.18-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.020.01
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.360.010.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0350.0051.910.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.330.020.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0375.0071.920.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0378.2676.880.030.01
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.33-0.03-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0382.6177.520.030.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0362.5058.920.000.00
OklahomaB120.050.0386.9682.580.030.02
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.69-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.320.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.86-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.35-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6459.710.000.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9174.060.020.01