live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 19, 2014.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:295.9
Current RPI:191
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:64
Current Record:2-9
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-10
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12182.00.03%
18-13197.50.18%
17-14215.20.51%
16-15233.12.53%
15-16251.46.33%
14-17268.912.31%
13-18285.617.29%
12-19299.819.97%
11-20311.218.14%
10-21320.212.74%
9-22327.66.14%
8-23333.62.70%
7-24339.10.83%
6-25343.60.26%
5-26347.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hawaii (218.9)BWA85-57L0%0.0
11-15High Point (157.4)BSthN74-62L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Bakersfield (328.8)WACN56-49W100%0.0
11-21Valparaiso (92.5)HorzN59-46L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (92.4)MACA75-43L0%0.0
11-25Ohio (202.2)MACA69-60L0%0.0
12-2Akron (153.9)MACA81-60L0%0.0
12-6Michigan St. (26.6)B10A85-52L0%0.0
12-13Air Force (108.7)MWCA80-47L0%0.0
12-17Houston (199.5)AmerA56-61W100%0.0
12-19Texas Tech (89.0)B12A72-51L0%0.0
12-22Southern Utah (310.6)BSkyN0-046%-1.3
12-29Stanford (72.8)P12A0-03%-22.6
1-3Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACH0-087%13.3
1-10Alabama St. (230.5)SWACH0-038%-3.6
1-12Alabama A&M (336.3)SWACH0-075%8.0
1-17Southern (308.5)SWACA0-034%-4.8
1-19Alcorn St. (330.5)SWACA0-046%-1.3
1-24Prairie View A&M (285.5)SWACH0-054%1.2
1-26Texas Southern (226.9)SWACH0-046%-1.1
1-31Grambling St. (349.4)SWACA0-081%10.3
2-2Jackson St. (286.1)SWACA0-025%-8.0
2-7Alabama St. (230.5)SWACA0-015%-12.3
2-14Southern (308.5)SWACH0-063%3.9
2-16Alcorn St. (330.5)SWACH0-074%7.5
2-19Alabama A&M (336.3)SWACA0-047%-0.7
2-21Prairie View A&M (285.5)SWACA0-026%-7.5
2-23Texas Southern (226.9)SWACA0-020%-9.8
2-28Grambling St. (349.4)SWACH0-095%19.0
3-2Jackson St. (286.1)SWACH0-052%0.7
3-5Mississippi Valley St. (346.7)SWACA0-065%4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC27.9326.4027.9143.26-12.34-3.56
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.1810.0018.14-0.00-2.66
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.1811.1143.23-0.00-0.57
SouthernSWAC0.004.180.0032.75-0.00-1.44
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.234.170.0038.20-0.23-0.98
Alcorn St.SWAC0.324.170.0027.62-0.32-1.86
Grambling St.SWAC0.324.160.008.73-0.32-3.44
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.1516.6743.41-0.00-0.55
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.130.0027.84-0.00-1.83
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.1333.3362.19-0.001.01
OhioMAC4.551.7933.3335.34-1.52-0.52
HawaiiBW5.041.7362.5053.021.260.10
AkronMAC4.551.7055.5654.660.510.16
Air ForceMWC4.771.7050.0060.100.000.34
Central MichiganMAC4.551.7083.3369.183.030.65
Texas TechB124.871.7088.8953.963.790.13
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.081.6710.0030.98-4.07-0.64
High PointBSth5.001.6757.1454.540.710.15
HoustonAmer4.551.6683.3349.403.03-0.02
Michigan St.B104.551.6670.0072.291.820.74
Southern UtahBSky0.001.6114.2928.38-0.00-0.70
StanfordP120.001.6175.0056.120.000.20
ValparaisoHorz4.551.6177.7869.902.530.64
TCUB120.000.22100.0066.920.000.08
TulaneAmer0.000.2288.8955.090.000.02
BaylorB120.000.2290.0073.800.000.10
Ball St.MAC0.230.2128.5737.33-0.10-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2175.0067.160.000.07
Murray St.OVC0.550.1855.5661.910.060.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1877.7870.500.000.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.1771.4363.270.090.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.1730.0028.56-0.00-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1742.8633.87-0.00-0.06
Iowa St.B120.000.1688.8963.400.000.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1655.5637.870.00-0.04
IndianaB100.000.1680.0057.340.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.320.1533.3341.24-0.11-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.1560.0058.890.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1562.5055.010.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.1475.0059.530.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1490.9168.690.000.05
Oregon St.P120.000.1477.7855.570.000.02
TexasB120.000.1490.0081.650.000.09
Kansas St.B120.000.1460.0037.150.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.320.1460.0040.370.06-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.1375.0059.930.100.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1342.8636.96-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0032.93-0.00-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.1275.0069.170.000.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1275.0049.970.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0071.400.000.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1236.3647.56-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1155.5660.240.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1136.3665.17-0.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.1170.0071.300.000.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1144.4444.86-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.880.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1172.7367.410.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1044.4469.77-0.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.320.0977.7871.170.180.04
George WashingtonA100.000.0966.6766.380.000.03
UtahP120.000.0977.7879.680.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.230.0937.5031.81-0.06-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0985.7161.910.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.320.0936.3644.80-0.09-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.320.0945.4543.81-0.03-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0912.5032.33-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.230.0970.0058.740.090.02
Portland St.BSky0.210.0950.0041.650.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0970.0073.030.080.04
UC RiversideBW0.210.0942.8642.92-0.03-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.210.0960.0052.190.040.00
MarquetteBE0.210.0960.0049.590.04-0.00
Notre DameACC0.210.0990.9172.430.170.04
PurdueB100.000.0972.7363.770.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.250.0937.5038.43-0.06-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0933.3340.82-0.00-0.02
IowaB100.000.0972.7362.430.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.430.0930.0029.59-0.17-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0977.7873.540.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0816.6726.71-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.210.0830.0031.32-0.08-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.230.0850.0047.740.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0860.0075.470.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.320.0875.0065.210.160.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0880.0066.580.000.03
DrakeMVC0.230.0820.0020.26-0.14-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.080.0024.34-0.00-0.04
USCP120.230.0860.0036.070.05-0.02
KansasB120.210.0888.8969.210.160.03
AuburnSEC0.230.0844.4435.91-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.970.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.830.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0644.4446.81-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.620.00-0.01
MaineAE0.550.0611.1121.27-0.43-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8638.86-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.89-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0027.89-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.56-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0642.8649.88-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.410.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0078.490.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.60-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0645.4550.81-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.52-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0050.17-0.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0611.1125.05-0.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0628.5757.14-0.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.14-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5659.230.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.46-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.007.81-0.00-0.05
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.50-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.89-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0637.5064.18-0.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.11-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0660.0071.320.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.44-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0650.0068.680.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.840.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.34-0.00-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7868.980.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.72-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.82-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0077.200.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1821.03-0.00-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.61-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3343.77-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0056.900.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.700.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.00-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.640.000.01
BYUWCC0.250.0666.6768.290.080.02
ColoradoP120.320.0666.6757.620.110.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.280.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.280.0690.0084.460.230.04
The CitadelSC0.320.0616.6730.30-0.22-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.700.000.01
DelawareCAA0.210.060.007.43-0.21-0.05
South DakotaSum0.210.0627.2738.75-0.09-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.52-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3339.29-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.530.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0073.610.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6777.530.000.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.05100.0082.300.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0560.0053.630.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0577.7867.320.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0572.7357.230.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0590.0067.450.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0540.0028.84-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.210.05100.0087.560.210.04
Penn St.B100.230.0590.9153.570.190.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0560.0064.140.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0590.0090.870.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0577.7878.860.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7365.120.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0510.0018.22-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0514.2933.59-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0542.8652.90-0.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0590.9167.370.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0555.5642.460.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0550.0039.610.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0554.5559.120.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0581.8264.670.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0542.8626.94-0.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0555.5645.620.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0525.0028.59-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0530.0036.94-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.320.0333.3332.70-0.11-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0048.53-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.320.030.0023.36-0.32-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.320.0337.5034.46-0.08-0.01
ArmyPat0.320.0377.7868.880.180.01
BelmontOVC0.320.0360.0061.960.060.01
ClemsonACC0.280.0360.0044.120.06-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.250.0340.0046.66-0.05-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.320.0377.7869.590.180.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5050.55-0.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0035.06-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.51-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.250.0310.0018.65-0.20-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0051.83-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.76-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.320.0344.4455.60-0.040.00
PittsburghACC0.250.0366.6752.850.080.00
RichmondA100.280.0355.5657.270.030.00
San FranciscoWCC0.250.0350.0053.240.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.0322.2237.12-0.16-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0053.800.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.280.0357.1456.650.040.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.320.0316.6719.31-0.22-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.0371.4364.140.100.01
HarvardIvy0.320.0385.7172.890.230.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.320.0320.0039.24-0.19-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.380.000.00
MissouriSEC0.230.0344.4431.92-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.320.0318.1836.00-0.21-0.01
PortlandWCC0.230.0366.6748.270.08-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.0366.6755.450.070.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.560.000.00
BryantNEC0.230.0328.5746.99-0.10-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.67-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0345.4554.26-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.020.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.09-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.230.0333.3327.57-0.08-0.01
LSUSEC0.230.0380.0064.030.140.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.230.0381.8266.320.140.01
Missouri St.MVC0.230.0337.5040.37-0.06-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.230.0355.5656.260.030.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.030.0036.84-0.23-0.01
OregonP120.000.0366.6757.860.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.230.0366.6766.120.080.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.0320.0029.91-0.14-0.01
UMBCAE0.230.0310.0020.97-0.18-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7875.790.000.01
NavyPat0.210.0320.0021.61-0.12-0.01
RiderMAAC0.210.0350.0053.130.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.920.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.0350.0040.680.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.540.000.02