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Through games of Feb 25, 2015.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:311.1
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:341
Current SOS:330
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:8.40%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-12
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:251
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20302.127.69%
11-21311.849.90%
10-22320.521.49%
9-23326.60.91%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hawaii (174.6)BWA85-57L0%0.0
11-15High Point (84.8)BSthN74-62L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Bakersfield (292.6)WACN56-49W100%0.0
11-21Valparaiso (67.3)HorzN59-46L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (66.9)MACA75-43L0%0.0
11-25Ohio (233.4)MACA69-60L0%0.0
12-2Akron (130.5)MACA81-60L0%0.0
12-6Michigan St. (27.0)B10A85-52L0%0.0
12-13Air Force (240.3)MWCA80-47L0%0.0
12-17Houston (270.5)AmerA56-61W100%0.0
12-19Texas Tech (189.2)B12A72-51L0%0.0
12-22Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyN70-61W100%0.0
12-23Abilene Christian (318.2)SlndN69-61L0%0.0
12-29Stanford (49.5)P12A74-39L0%0.0
1-3Mississippi Valley St. (342.3)SWACH63-67L0%0.0
1-10Alabama St. (230.0)SWACH71-74L0%0.0
1-12Alabama A&M (322.7)SWACH48-51L0%0.0
1-17Southern (256.8)SWACA70-60L0%0.0
1-19Alcorn St. (347.4)SWACA49-54W100%0.0
1-24Texas Southern (150.7)SWACH66-62W100%0.0
1-26Prairie View A&M (270.8)SWACH105-68W100%0.0
1-31Grambling St. (350.7)SWACA53-65W100%0.0
2-2Jackson St. (311.1)SWACA69-45L0%0.0
2-7Alabama St. (230.0)SWACA73-55L0%0.0
2-9Alabama A&M (322.7)SWACA42-56W100%0.0
2-14Southern (256.8)SWACH56-74L0%0.0
2-17Alcorn St. (347.4)SWACH74-70W100%0.0
2-21Texas Southern (150.7)SWACA56-50L0%0.0
2-23Prairie View A&M (270.8)SWACA79-58L0%0.0
2-28Grambling St. (350.7)SWACH0-096%18.3
3-2Jackson St. (311.1)SWACH0-047%-0.8
3-5Mississippi Valley St. (342.3)SWACA0-060%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.4226.3736.4338.89-7.17-5.86
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.134.0637.5041.00-1.03-0.73
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.674.0414.8117.18-1.88-2.65
Texas SouthernSWAC4.114.0456.0058.110.490.65
SouthernSWAC4.204.0337.5039.12-1.05-0.88
Alcorn St.SWAC4.204.0317.3916.35-2.74-2.71
Grambling St.SWAC2.544.020.001.29-2.54-3.92
Jackson St.SWAC2.524.0130.7735.09-0.97-1.20
Alabama A&MSWAC4.154.0028.5730.91-1.78-1.53
Alabama St.SWAC4.133.9963.1663.741.091.10
OhioMAC1.901.7332.0031.37-0.68-0.64
HawaiiBW1.921.7357.6957.840.300.27
Texas TechB121.861.6739.2937.52-0.40-0.42
HoustonAmer1.821.6736.0036.71-0.51-0.44
Air ForceMWC1.791.6541.6741.63-0.30-0.28
AkronMAC1.791.6557.6958.130.280.27
Central MichiganMAC1.821.6477.2775.820.990.85
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.791.6240.0040.61-0.36-0.30
High PointBSth1.791.6270.8369.200.750.62
Michigan St.B101.791.6169.2367.470.690.56
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.761.5921.7421.61-0.99-0.90
Southern UtahBSky1.721.5630.4331.28-0.67-0.59
StanfordP121.721.5664.0062.150.480.38
ValparaisoHorz1.721.5680.7779.621.060.93
TCUB120.200.2160.7157.570.040.03
BaylorB120.230.2174.0773.870.110.10
TulaneAmer0.160.2150.0049.880.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.210.2024.0025.19-0.11-0.10
Western MichiganMAC0.210.2057.6956.880.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.240.1972.0070.110.110.08
Murray St.OVC0.210.1784.6284.250.140.11
BuffaloMAC0.170.1766.6767.400.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.1754.1753.550.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.140.1640.7440.54-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1640.0040.27-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1655.5656.450.020.02
Iowa St.B120.160.1574.0773.050.080.07
IndianaB100.130.1565.5264.470.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1537.0435.07-0.05-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.180.1424.0024.02-0.09-0.08
Boise St.MWC0.170.1473.0873.180.080.06
ToledoMAC0.130.1464.2963.760.040.04
Oregon St.P120.070.1461.5459.370.020.03
Kent St.MAC0.140.1466.6764.480.050.04
CaliforniaP120.170.1457.1453.950.020.01
TexasB120.160.1360.7160.420.030.03
NorthwesternB100.130.1350.0048.140.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.160.1348.2846.44-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.130.1345.8342.77-0.01-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.120.1225.0027.58-0.06-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1153.8554.350.010.01
WashingtonP120.110.1155.5654.230.010.01
UNLVMWC0.140.1151.8553.210.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1153.8554.950.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1178.2677.320.080.06
UC RiversideBW0.130.1148.0046.45-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1129.6331.11-0.05-0.04
LamarSlnd0.140.1143.4842.11-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1162.9665.180.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.1152.0053.130.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1074.0774.830.050.05
MemphisAmer0.130.1062.9660.350.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1061.5461.360.020.02
SMUAmer0.130.1080.7778.960.080.06
South FloridaAmer0.070.1025.9328.08-0.03-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.1075.0077.300.030.06
EvansvilleMVC0.120.0964.2963.570.030.02
UtahP120.120.0980.0080.380.070.05
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0926.0925.27-0.05-0.04
George WashingtonA100.070.0964.2963.500.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0929.6330.59-0.04-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.0950.0050.670.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0977.7877.750.060.05
Utah St.MWC0.070.0961.5460.000.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0982.7681.320.050.05
PurdueB100.040.0966.6764.600.010.02
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0816.0017.28-0.07-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.070.0852.1751.330.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0866.6764.530.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0833.3334.34-0.02-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.0840.7441.18-0.02-0.01
WyomingMWC0.100.0873.0870.040.050.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0842.3141.77-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0835.0034.31-0.02-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0869.2368.450.040.03
UC DavisBW0.100.0882.6178.720.060.05
ColoradoP120.100.0846.1545.49-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.0864.2964.530.030.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0850.0048.910.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0883.3383.750.070.05
TulsaAmer0.100.0876.9273.040.060.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0851.8551.790.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0855.5654.040.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0828.5728.59-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0870.8371.710.040.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0819.2322.25-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.100.0848.1545.24-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0838.4638.60-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.100.0834.7833.25-0.03-0.03
USCP120.100.0835.7135.30-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0853.8555.810.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0840.7439.49-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.090.0878.5776.440.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0682.1478.230.050.04
MaineAE0.070.0610.7110.51-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0631.8237.71-0.03-0.01
CampbellBSth0.070.0623.0824.26-0.04-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0662.5061.540.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0668.0068.770.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0682.1481.330.040.04
DaytonA100.070.0677.7874.890.040.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0652.0051.360.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0642.8642.08-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.070.0624.0025.40-0.04-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0620.0019.18-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0665.3866.020.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.060.000.47-0.07-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0638.4639.98-0.02-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0641.6742.96-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0635.7134.78-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0654.1756.180.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0660.0059.180.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0612.0013.24-0.05-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0655.5655.360.000.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0660.0062.140.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.0873.870.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0642.3141.65-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0618.5219.29-0.04-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0665.0063.570.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0629.6329.37-0.03-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0638.4638.61-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0641.6744.76-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0645.8346.06-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0630.7734.59-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.070.0633.3332.70-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.070.0634.6237.70-0.02-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.070.0673.0873.650.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.070.0637.5039.25-0.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0634.6236.29-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0570.3771.270.030.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0529.1729.65-0.03-0.02
DelawareCAA0.070.0529.6329.60-0.03-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0546.4345.84-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0553.8552.190.010.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0567.8666.130.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0554.5554.740.010.01
DePaulBE0.070.0541.3840.26-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0588.8987.550.030.04
Arizona St.P120.030.0555.5654.840.000.01
BrownIvy0.070.0540.0039.76-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.070.0570.3768.420.030.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0547.8347.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0528.0027.20-0.01-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0518.5220.94-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0567.8667.370.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0559.2658.320.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0542.3146.06-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0536.3639.60-0.02-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0558.3357.820.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0550.0051.660.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0542.3142.57-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0558.6260.530.010.01
Washington St.P120.070.0544.4441.75-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0589.2988.100.050.04
Penn St.B100.060.0553.5750.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0546.4346.84-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0596.4396.060.060.05
HofstraCAA0.030.0563.3363.400.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0560.7161.200.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0522.2221.87-0.02-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0552.0054.090.000.00
MarylandB100.060.0582.1481.510.040.03
MichiganB100.060.0550.0050.020.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0540.7439.85-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0559.2659.100.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0560.7161.360.010.01
OklahomaB120.060.0570.3769.810.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0520.8319.97-0.02-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0553.8551.200.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0551.8553.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0578.5775.020.030.03
BradleyMVC0.040.0324.1424.86-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0341.6742.26-0.01-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0351.8551.100.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.5653.660.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0312.0012.92-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0321.4322.56-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0332.0032.49-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.1458.580.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0323.0825.10-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.5462.580.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.034.004.84-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.040.0336.0034.76-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0356.0055.550.000.00
IdahoBSky0.040.0339.1342.42-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0350.0052.600.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9326.66-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.040.0358.3357.700.010.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0323.0822.25-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.33-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0319.0521.39-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.030.0353.8553.140.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.3770.380.010.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0347.8349.14-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0336.0035.55-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0362.9664.050.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0369.2369.910.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0359.2659.160.010.00
BryantNEC0.030.0348.1549.51-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0319.2320.50-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0342.3143.89-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.030.0342.8642.72-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0377.2775.900.020.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0325.0024.65-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0317.8618.19-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0328.0028.79-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0364.2963.150.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.93-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4369.280.000.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.2962.940.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0340.7442.41-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0346.1547.73-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0367.8668.340.000.01
UMBCAE0.030.0314.2914.94-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0389.2988.680.030.02
WoffordSC0.030.0377.7877.410.020.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0339.2939.89-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0371.4369.960.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0333.3332.84-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0335.7135.97-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.5265.450.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0335.7133.43-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.4639.07-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0389.2987.450.000.02