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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:310.7
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:142
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-10
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:289
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11185.00.02%
17-12199.20.08%
16-13213.80.47%
15-14232.31.46%
14-15248.93.66%
13-16270.37.91%
12-17287.812.08%
11-18303.516.46%
10-19317.317.76%
9-20328.616.43%
8-21336.612.18%
7-22342.17.13%
6-23345.83.03%
5-24348.40.93%
4-25350.20.37%
3-26350.00.01%
2-27350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hawaii (244.5)BWA85-57L0%0.0
11-15High Point (142.1)BSthN74-62L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Bakersfield (305.6)WACN56-49W100%0.0
11-25Ohio (126.0)MACA0-09%-16.3
12-2Akron (84.2)MACA0-05%-19.7
12-6Michigan St. (43.0)B10A0-01%-27.2
12-13Air Force (200.2)MWCA0-012%-14.2
12-17Houston (109.7)AmerA0-05%-20.1
12-19Texas Tech (168.5)B12A0-07%-17.4
12-22Southern Utah (326.1)BSkyN0-052%0.6
12-29Stanford (64.2)P12A0-03%-23.2
1-3Mississippi Valley St. (346.1)SWACH0-080%10.0
1-10Alabama St. (226.3)SWACH0-035%-4.6
1-12Alabama A&M (303.8)SWACH0-058%2.3
1-17Southern (255.6)SWACA0-023%-8.7
1-19Alcorn St. (206.9)SWACA0-021%-9.8
1-24Prairie View A&M (306.5)SWACH0-059%2.7
1-26Texas Southern (249.3)SWACH0-048%-0.6
1-31Grambling St. (341.3)SWACA0-055%1.4
2-2Jackson St. (315.8)SWACA0-038%-3.8
2-7Alabama St. (226.3)SWACA0-016%-11.7
2-14Southern (255.6)SWACH0-045%-1.5
2-16Alcorn St. (206.9)SWACH0-041%-2.7
2-19Alabama A&M (303.8)SWACA0-034%-4.9
2-21Prairie View A&M (306.5)SWACA0-036%-4.5
2-23Texas Southern (249.3)SWACA0-026%-7.8
2-28Grambling St. (341.3)SWACH0-076%8.6
3-2Jackson St. (315.8)SWACH0-061%3.4
3-5Mississippi Valley St. (346.1)SWACA0-059%2.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC32.6426.4638.4638.36-7.53-6.16
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.490.0037.20-0.00-1.15
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.480.0015.21-0.00-3.12
SouthernSWAC0.004.480.0043.26-0.00-0.60
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.470.0031.89-0.00-1.62
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.470.0048.25-0.00-0.16
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.470.0020.20-0.00-2.66
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.4633.3334.29-0.00-1.40
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.440.0037.25-0.00-1.13
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.430.0061.67-0.001.03
OhioMAC0.001.8550.0053.910.000.14
HawaiiBW21.531.8550.0046.670.00-0.12
Air ForceMWC0.001.8250.0043.100.00-0.25
Texas TechB120.001.8250.0043.390.00-0.24
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC22.221.790.0032.08-22.22-0.64
High PointBSth21.531.79100.0056.3321.530.23
AkronMAC0.001.79100.0068.790.000.67
HoustonAmer0.001.78100.0064.620.000.52
Michigan St.B100.001.7850.0065.240.000.54
Southern UtahBSky0.001.720.0023.37-0.00-0.92
StanfordP120.001.72100.0058.100.000.28
TCUB120.000.24100.0054.380.000.02
BaylorB120.000.24100.0070.330.000.10
TulaneAmer0.000.2350.0035.370.00-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.19100.0062.880.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.18100.0061.300.000.04
IndianaB100.000.17100.0064.540.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.170.0027.60-0.00-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.1650.0071.690.000.07
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.16100.0028.940.00-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1650.0034.320.00-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.16100.0078.150.000.09
Oregon St.P120.000.15100.0044.490.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.15100.0084.350.000.11
North TexasCUSA0.000.15100.0048.410.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.150.0034.17-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.15100.0060.010.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.130.0039.05-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.130.0036.23-0.00-0.04
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0056.080.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.13100.0065.680.000.04
UNLVMWC0.000.13100.0057.080.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1366.6762.170.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.13100.0058.910.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1333.3351.93-0.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0050.480.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.120.0065.41-0.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.12100.0046.120.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.12100.0049.980.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1250.0067.190.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1233.3364.95-0.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.12100.0044.320.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.1233.3369.45-0.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.12100.0044.020.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.110.0069.58-0.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.10100.0063.340.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.10100.0043.520.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0028.57-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.100.0033.91-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.1050.0063.450.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.10100.0071.490.000.04
IowaB100.000.1066.6773.790.000.05
Notre DameACC0.000.10100.0070.180.000.04
PurdueB100.000.10100.0061.020.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0040.980.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.090.0033.58-0.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.09100.0051.640.000.00
San Diego St.MWC2.080.09100.0080.042.080.06
Utah St.MWC0.000.09100.0063.690.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0950.0063.260.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0043.010.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0056.380.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.09100.0055.290.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.090.0049.27-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.090.0032.05-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0950.0062.330.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0950.0029.910.00-0.04
USCP120.000.0933.3326.65-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.09100.0059.190.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0950.0050.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0850.0037.190.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0074.610.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.070.0034.75-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.070.0039.41-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0733.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0046.51-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0064.340.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0055.17-0.000.01
DaytonA100.000.07100.0072.390.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0050.010.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.070.0063.68-0.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0054.560.000.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.070.0041.47-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.070.0044.62-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0072.220.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.07100.0043.270.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.780.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.060.0030.64-0.00-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.86-0.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.270.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0650.0061.050.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.06100.0051.540.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0666.6761.240.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.69-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.0032.76-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3343.60-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0650.0046.970.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0052.100.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.060.0059.82-0.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.020.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.310.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.880.000.03
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.81-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0026.57-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0633.3350.61-0.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.300.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0060.94-0.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0066.74-0.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0055.450.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.510.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0042.76-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.550.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.060.0035.01-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0070.580.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0061.570.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0065.830.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0070.520.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0034.86-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0060.930.000.01
MarylandB100.000.06100.0067.780.000.02
MichiganB100.000.06100.0067.240.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6757.250.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0045.740.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.410.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.060.0032.60-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.74-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0060.040.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0036.790.00-0.02
OklahomaB120.000.0650.0058.400.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.19-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.060.000.02
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0650.0068.630.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0087.640.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.0650.0061.290.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.67-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0058.87-0.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0044.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.120.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.410.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0043.860.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.060.0041.28-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0350.0043.510.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.03100.0057.350.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.48-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0058.890.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0071.660.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0046.570.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0062.600.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0071.680.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.210.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0366.6743.460.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0350.0043.990.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.64-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.030.0049.48-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0023.81-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0035.720.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0061.220.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.030.0036.86-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0039.830.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.030.0029.13-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0350.0046.350.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0051.350.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0029.01-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.03100.0041.770.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.030.0058.38-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.030.0049.36-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.030.0035.57-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0031.05-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0350.0062.850.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0039.730.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0085.060.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.810.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.74-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.73-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0030.65-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0034.44-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0050.840.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0034.150.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.360.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0057.150.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.830.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.0350.0065.490.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6739.300.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.03100.0056.370.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0052.18-0.000.00