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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:264.0
Current RPI:264
Expected SOS:281
Current SOS:281
Current Record:11-18
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC Record:0-10
Expected OOC RPI:299
Expected OOC SOS:32



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18264.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A97-63L0%0.0
11-17Air Force (251.0)MWCA67-64L0%0.0
11-24SMU (53.0)AmerA87-61L0%0.0
11-26Texas A&M (148.0)SECA88-55L0%0.0
11-29Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndN75-49L0%0.0
11-30Hampton (204.0)MEACN72-65L0%0.0
12-13Oregon St. (100.0)P12A77-63L0%0.0
12-17Creighton (10.0)BEA88-51L0%0.0
12-22Iowa (56.0)B10A86-61L0%0.0
12-30Auburn (169.0)SECA91-59L0%0.0
1-4Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACA73-78W100%0.0
1-11Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACA64-72W100%0.0
1-13Alabama St. (254.0)SWACA77-64L0%0.0
1-18Southern (171.0)SWACH56-60L0%0.0
1-20Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH45-71L0%0.0
1-25Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACA71-62L0%0.0
1-27Texas Southern (239.0)SWACA72-71L0%0.0
2-1Grambling St. (348.0)SWACH66-64W100%0.0
2-3Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH70-69W100%0.0
2-8Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH64-61W100%0.0
2-10Alabama St. (254.0)SWACH76-71W100%0.0
2-15Southern (171.0)SWACA58-64W100%0.0
2-17Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACA57-54L0%0.0
2-22Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH76-61W100%0.0
2-24Texas Southern (239.0)SWACH55-65L0%0.0
3-1Grambling St. (348.0)SWACA52-61W100%0.0
3-3Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA59-66W100%0.0
3-8Mississippi Valley St. (342.0)SWACH83-68W100%0.0
3-13Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACN50-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.4926.4942.4042.40-4.03-4.03
Alabama A&MSWAC6.166.1644.0044.00-0.74-0.74
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.794.7929.0329.03-2.01-2.01
Texas SouthernSWAC4.644.6453.3353.330.310.31
Alabama St.SWAC4.564.5657.6957.690.700.70
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.554.5522.2222.22-2.53-2.53
Jackson St.SWAC4.554.5537.9337.93-1.10-1.10
Grambling St.SWAC4.554.5516.0016.00-3.09-3.09
Alcorn St.SWAC4.534.5326.9226.92-2.09-2.09
SouthernSWAC4.504.5055.5655.560.500.50
Texas A&MSEC1.921.9251.6151.610.060.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.831.8367.8667.860.650.65
CreightonBE1.791.7978.1278.121.001.00
Oklahoma St.B121.781.7862.5062.500.450.45
SMUAmer1.781.7870.9770.970.750.75
Air ForceMWC1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
AuburnSEC1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
HamptonMEAC1.721.7258.6258.620.300.30
IowaB101.721.7260.0060.000.340.34
Oregon St.P121.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.2842.4242.42-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
Missouri St.MVC0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
TCUB120.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
TulaneCUSA0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
DePaulBE0.170.1736.3636.36-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1741.1841.18-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
IllinoisB100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
Arizona St.P120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
WyomingMWC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
FloridaSEC0.140.1494.1294.120.130.13
NorthwesternB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
ColoradoP120.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
TroySB0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
DenverSum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
WashingtonP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Washington St.P120.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
BaylorB120.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
HowardMEAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
UCLAP120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0993.1093.100.080.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0987.1087.100.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
LSUSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MissouriSEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MichiganB100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01