Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	327.1
Current RPI:	339
Expected SOS:	333
Current SOS:	322
Current Record:	4-19
Expected Record:	8-23
Current Conf Record:	3-7
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-12
Current OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC Record:	1-12
Expected OOC RPI:	301
Expected OOC SOS:	128

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	289.0	0.05%
11-20	296.8	1.21%
10-21	306.8	6.34%
9-22	316.6	16.07%
8-23	325.5	27.70%
7-24	332.5	27.53%
6-25	337.3	15.41%
5-26	340.5	4.97%
4-27	342.2	0.71%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-15	Oklahoma St. (120.3)	B12	A	73-46	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	N	80-44	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Florida International (212.8)	SB	N	56-58	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	N	64-55	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Auburn (147.6)	SEC	A	72-59	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	63-51	L	0%	0.0
12-13	Michigan (25.3)	B10	A	63-50	L	0%	0.0
12-15	Akron (49.0)	MAC	A	87-64	L	0%	0.0
12-17	DePaul (187.2)	BE	A	81-62	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Cincinnati (89.8)	BE	A	101-53	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Jacksonville St. (252.5)	OVC	N	78-55	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	79-58	L	0%	0.0
12-31	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	A	81-65	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	A	82-67	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	65-62	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	A	62-56	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	68-69	L	0%	0.0
1-16	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	75-68	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	A	69-55	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	A	76-75	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	55-60	L	0%	0.0
1-30	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	73-69	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	81-75	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		56%	1.5
2-11	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		31%	-5.5
2-13	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		48%	-0.6
2-18	Prairie View A&M (281.7)	SWAC	H	0-0		55%	1.4
2-20	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		36%	-4.0
2-25	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	0-0		70%	5.7
2-27	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		37%	-3.8
3-1	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	H	0-0		25%	-7.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	26.32	26.40	16.47	25.57	-17.65	-12.90
Alabama St.	SWAC	2.87	4.24	26.32	34.61	-1.36	-1.30
Southern	SWAC	2.87	4.23	42.11	43.17	-0.45	-0.58
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	2.78	4.19	47.62	56.06	-0.13	0.51
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.79	4.18	20.00	25.06	-1.67	-2.09
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.83	4.16	13.33	25.11	-3.54	-2.07
Texas Southern	SWAC	2.74	4.16	28.57	39.28	-1.17	-0.89
Grambling	SWAC	2.73	4.15	10.53	11.94	-2.16	-3.16
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	2.73	4.15	31.58	38.35	-1.00	-0.97
Alcorn St.	SWAC	2.72	4.14	17.65	22.78	-1.76	-2.26
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.42	1.81	40.91	41.35	-0.44	-0.31
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.36	1.78	35.00	35.64	-0.71	-0.51
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.33	1.75	31.82	36.14	-0.85	-0.49
Cincinnati	BE	2.32	1.73	68.18	64.32	0.85	0.49
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.32	1.72	68.18	67.83	0.84	0.61
Oral Roberts	Sum	2.28	1.70	80.00	80.11	1.37	1.02
Florida International	SB	2.27	1.70	35.00	38.59	-0.68	-0.39
DePaul	BE	2.27	1.69	47.62	40.86	-0.11	-0.31
Michigan	B10	2.30	1.68	71.43	65.66	0.99	0.53
Oklahoma St.	B12	2.23	1.64	42.86	38.66	-0.32	-0.37
Auburn	SEC	2.22	1.64	54.55	47.05	0.20	-0.10
Akron	MAC	2.17	1.64	66.67	66.80	0.72	0.55
Air Force	MWC	2.17	1.61	44.44	39.85	-0.24	-0.33
Tulane	CUSA	0.39	0.32	61.90	58.59	0.09	0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.25	0.25	69.57	65.15	0.10	0.07
Baylor	B12	0.25	0.22	90.91	83.85	0.21	0.15
Mississippi	SEC	0.25	0.22	63.64	56.71	0.07	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.25	0.20	66.67	60.80	0.08	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.25	0.19	59.09	59.72	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.20	0.19	73.91	68.43	0.10	0.07
Tulsa	CUSA	0.25	0.19	60.87	59.05	0.05	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.24	0.19	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.22	0.18	56.52	53.10	0.03	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.16	0.17	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.21	0.17	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.17	85.71	82.18	0.11	0.11
West Virginia	BE	0.20	0.17	65.22	65.17	0.06	0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.20	0.17	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.15	0.17	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.24	0.16	31.82	25.98	-0.09	-0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.16	61.90	55.14	0.04	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.15	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.18	0.15	68.18	69.10	0.06	0.06
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.14	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.20	0.14	81.82	81.03	0.13	0.09
Memphis	CUSA	0.15	0.14	69.57	71.51	0.06	0.06
Oakland	Sum	0.19	0.14	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.14	82.61	77.63	0.07	0.08
UAB	CUSA	0.18	0.12	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.12	71.43	69.05	0.05	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.11	41.67	40.61	-0.03	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.15	0.11	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.11	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.11	19.05	22.37	-0.09	-0.06
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.11	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.11	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.11	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.06
Providence	BE	0.05	0.11	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.11	86.96	85.46	0.07	0.08
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.11	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.10	0.11	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.11	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.11	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.11	59.09	54.70	0.03	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.09	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.09	82.61	81.44	0.07	0.06
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.09	83.33	84.76	0.10	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.10	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.08	66.67	62.65	0.04	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.08	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.08	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.08	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.08	69.57	64.53	0.04	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.08	4.76	9.95	-0.14	-0.07
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.08	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.08	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.08	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.04
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.08	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.08	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.10	0.08	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.15	0.08	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.08	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.08	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.09	0.08	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.08	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.14	0.08	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.10	0.08	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.08	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.08	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.08	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.08	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.08	30.00	34.15	-0.04	-0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.15	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.03	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.14	0.08	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.00	0.08	79.17	75.98	0.00	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.08	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.06	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.06	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.06	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.04
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.61	0.03	0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.05	33.33	35.97	-0.03	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.10	0.05	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.05	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.09	0.05	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.05	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.00	0.05	72.73	64.43	0.00	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.05	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.00	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.00	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.05	69.57	61.31	0.04	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.05	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.05	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.10	0.05	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.04	0.05	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.05	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.05	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.05	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.05	73.91	75.49	0.04	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.05	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.00	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.00	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.02	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.03	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	8.70	8.99	-0.04	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.04	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.05	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.02