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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:335.0
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:207
Current Record:0-6
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-13
Current OOC Record:0-6
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:335
Expected OOC SOS:161



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14222.00.01%
14-16265.00.05%
13-17275.30.31%
12-18290.31.05%
11-19304.63.13%
10-20316.57.13%
9-21325.912.67%
8-22333.018.38%
7-23338.719.74%
6-24343.017.36%
5-25346.011.77%
4-26347.95.99%
3-27349.31.96%
2-28350.20.37%
1-29350.90.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UAB (137.2)CUSAA86-66L0%0.0
11-17George Washington (187.8)A10A61-41L0%0.0
11-23Siena (144.9)MAACA66-43L0%0.0
11-27Hawaii (274.7)BWA64-44L0%0.0
12-1Tennessee Martin (167.9)OVCH68-73L0%0.0
12-3Central Michigan (150.9)MACA82-59L0%0.0
12-8Little Rock (152.6)SBA0-04%-21.1
12-12Seattle (265.1)WACA0-013%-13.6
12-14Oklahoma St. (57.9)B12A0-00%-33.2
12-17New Mexico (89.1)MWCA0-02%-25.4
12-19Denver (244.4)SumA0-09%-16.4
12-22Grand Canyon (179.4)WACA0-05%-20.1
1-2Mississippi Valley St. (316.6)SWACH0-057%2.1
1-7Alabama St. (329.0)SWACH0-051%0.2
1-9Alabama A&M (350.1)SWACH0-078%9.2
1-14Southern (233.8)SWACA0-011%-14.7
1-16Alcorn St. (319.5)SWACA0-032%-5.7
1-21Texas Southern (105.6)SWACH0-010%-15.5
1-23Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACH0-050%-0.1
1-28Grambling St. (338.4)SWACA0-040%-2.9
1-30Jackson St. (305.7)SWACA0-021%-9.7
2-4Alabama St. (329.0)SWACA0-031%-6.0
2-6Alabama A&M (350.1)SWACA0-060%2.9
2-11Southern (233.8)SWACH0-024%-8.5
2-13Alcorn St. (319.5)SWACH0-052%0.6
2-18Texas Southern (105.6)SWACA0-03%-21.8
2-20Prairie View A&M (307.2)SWACA0-030%-6.3
2-25Grambling St. (338.4)SWACH0-061%3.3
2-27Jackson St. (305.7)SWACH0-039%-3.4
3-4Mississippi Valley St. (316.6)SWACA0-036%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC28.0826.390.0026.68-28.08-12.31
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.330.0023.22-0.00-2.32
Alabama A&MSWAC0.524.290.0011.99-0.52-3.26
SouthernSWAC0.004.2840.0057.06-0.000.60
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.280.0030.15-0.00-1.70
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.2750.0064.510.001.24
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.004.2612.5031.25-0.00-1.60
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.2612.5031.38-0.00-1.59
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.2625.0030.41-0.00-1.67
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.2614.2941.00-0.00-0.77
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.8542.8656.91-0.000.26
UABCUSA8.801.8142.8658.45-1.260.31
SeattleWAC0.001.7816.6736.90-0.00-0.47
George WashingtonA109.321.7250.0040.220.00-0.34
Central MichiganMAC8.331.7071.4357.253.570.25
Little RockSB0.521.7066.6760.160.170.34
SienaMAAC8.801.6925.0048.38-4.40-0.05
DenverSum0.001.6742.8644.02-0.00-0.20
HawaiiBW8.331.6733.3348.86-2.78-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.001.6762.5056.750.000.22
Oklahoma St.B120.001.6771.4352.430.000.08
Tennessee MartinOVC8.331.6771.4353.893.570.13
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.2657.1472.530.000.12
TroySB1.120.2342.8636.07-0.16-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.520.2325.0027.74-0.26-0.10
BaylorB120.000.23100.0076.070.000.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.520.2120.0022.88-0.31-0.11
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1875.0069.680.000.07
TCUB120.000.17100.0060.950.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1520.0022.08-0.00-0.08
UMKCWAC0.000.1555.5649.660.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1557.1457.780.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1516.6729.83-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1420.0017.37-0.00-0.09
DuquesneA100.520.1440.0039.19-0.10-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1457.1454.200.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1460.0069.260.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.1257.1436.370.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1250.0064.910.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1228.5733.56-0.00-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0031.31-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1271.4360.090.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1242.8650.33-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.1250.0042.770.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.1237.5028.47-0.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.120.1228.5738.92-0.48-0.03
Texas St.SB0.600.1250.0044.180.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1262.5053.550.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1150.0050.170.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.1150.0060.950.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1116.6735.90-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0020.21-0.00-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1137.5035.03-0.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.1162.5070.890.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1171.4363.080.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.980.1175.0070.350.490.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1157.1443.930.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1188.8956.710.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.1177.7870.290.000.04
KansasB120.980.1188.8977.470.770.06
George MasonA100.000.1162.5046.490.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1175.0071.330.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.250.000.07
UC DavisBW0.000.1050.0045.660.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.100.0033.71-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0942.8641.13-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0971.4355.680.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0925.0043.29-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0960.0067.820.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0983.3371.500.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0975.0056.270.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.120.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0925.0040.78-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0061.350.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0911.1120.27-0.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.75-0.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.0971.4357.210.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7169.920.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0912.5037.11-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0912.5030.51-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0866.6753.730.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.520.08100.0089.590.520.07
TexasB120.000.0850.0038.730.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0825.0029.90-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.520.0837.5044.42-0.13-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0887.5075.690.000.04
MaristMAAC0.000.0844.4434.60-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0857.1449.420.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0862.5067.590.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.0875.0070.570.000.03
La SalleA100.000.0857.1456.540.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0038.43-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.830.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.770.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0644.4453.29-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.600.0687.5081.910.450.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0657.1444.830.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0057.950.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.82-0.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.000.0688.8978.430.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7175.800.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6730.09-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.67-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3352.03-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0657.1449.640.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.080.000.01
Green BayHorz1.040.0637.5048.85-0.26-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3351.57-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0662.5044.840.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.900.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0637.5050.92-0.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.50-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.520.0642.8633.51-0.07-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.820.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.17-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.35-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0040.690.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0037.700.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.460.0642.8660.66-0.070.01
Penn St.B100.460.0666.6746.170.15-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0650.0056.890.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0675.0075.180.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5075.730.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.770.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.030.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5061.660.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5042.780.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0680.0058.220.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0642.8650.57-0.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2935.05-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.270.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0587.5082.440.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.0571.4362.990.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.460.0562.5055.890.120.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.05100.0092.200.000.05
IndianaB100.000.0587.5074.510.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0557.1464.540.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0512.5030.17-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0528.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4347.690.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0522.2232.01-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0560.0058.780.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0577.7872.210.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.75-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0575.0066.090.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0550.0048.500.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.460.0557.1450.790.070.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0557.1450.860.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0520.0035.15-0.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0575.0072.930.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0528.5737.54-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.450.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0320.0060.00-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.600.0375.0054.480.300.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0025.31-0.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.140.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0357.1464.500.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.520.0328.5731.07-0.22-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.8644.89-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
KentuckySEC0.520.0387.5082.220.390.02
MississippiSEC0.520.0375.0047.990.26-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.87-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.32-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.30-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0316.6749.78-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.520.0333.3346.06-0.17-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.81-0.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0387.5069.040.000.01
AuburnSEC0.520.0385.7157.280.370.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0342.8639.64-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0362.5050.630.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.520.0342.8657.52-0.070.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.600.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.77-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.72-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0377.7886.650.000.02
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
CornellIvy0.460.0328.5730.43-0.20-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.460.0388.8967.470.360.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.460.0357.1451.810.070.00
HarvardIvy0.460.0333.3349.39-0.15-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0355.5643.870.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.460.030.0034.54-0.46-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6770.400.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.34-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.460.0357.1433.200.07-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.460.0362.5071.850.120.01
VermontAE0.000.0362.5071.400.000.01