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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:302.0
Current RPI:302
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:340
Current Record:12-20
Expected Record:12-20
Current Conf Record:9-9
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-11
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:171



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-20302.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Hawaii (152.0)BWA85-57L0%0.0
11-15High Point (89.0)BSthN74-62L0%0.0
11-17Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACN56-49W100%0.0
11-21Valparaiso (50.0)HorzN59-46L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (70.0)MACA75-43L0%0.0
11-25Ohio (231.0)MACA69-60L0%0.0
12-2Akron (115.0)MACA81-60L0%0.0
12-6Michigan St. (23.0)B10A85-52L0%0.0
12-13Air Force (240.0)MWCA80-47L0%0.0
12-17Houston (239.0)AmerA56-61W100%0.0
12-19Texas Tech (183.0)B12A72-51L0%0.0
12-22Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyN70-61W100%0.0
12-23Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndN69-61L0%0.0
12-29Stanford (59.0)P12A74-39L0%0.0
1-3Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACH63-67L0%0.0
1-10Alabama St. (258.0)SWACH71-74L0%0.0
1-12Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACH48-51L0%0.0
1-17Southern (223.0)SWACA70-60L0%0.0
1-19Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACA49-54W100%0.0
1-24Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH66-62W100%0.0
1-26Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH105-68W100%0.0
1-31Grambling St. (351.0)SWACA53-65W100%0.0
2-2Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA69-45L0%0.0
2-7Alabama St. (258.0)SWACA73-55L0%0.0
2-9Alabama A&M (330.0)SWACA42-56W100%0.0
2-14Southern (223.0)SWACH56-74L0%0.0
2-17Alcorn St. (348.0)SWACH74-70W100%0.0
2-21Texas Southern (120.0)SWACA56-50L0%0.0
2-23Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACA79-58L0%0.0
2-28Grambling St. (351.0)SWACH66-57W100%0.0
3-2Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH64-62W100%0.0
3-6Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA75-94W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.2926.2942.2542.25-4.07-4.07
SouthernSWAC4.144.1443.3343.33-0.55-0.55
Texas SouthernSWAC4.144.1465.6265.621.291.29
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.104.1043.3343.33-0.55-0.55
Alcorn St.SWAC4.084.0817.8617.86-2.62-2.62
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.044.0416.6716.67-2.69-2.69
Alabama St.SWAC4.044.0460.0060.000.810.81
Grambling St.SWAC4.024.020.000.00-4.02-4.02
Jackson St.SWAC4.014.0133.3333.33-1.34-1.34
Alabama A&MSWAC3.993.9926.9226.92-1.84-1.84
OhioMAC1.721.7231.0331.03-0.65-0.65
HawaiiBW1.711.7159.3859.380.320.32
HoustonAmer1.661.6641.9441.94-0.27-0.27
Texas TechB121.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Air ForceMWC1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
AkronMAC1.641.6457.5857.580.250.25
Central MichiganMAC1.641.6470.3770.370.670.67
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
High PointBSth1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Michigan St.B101.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.591.5922.2222.22-0.88-0.88
Southern UtahBSky1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
StanfordP121.561.5658.0658.060.250.25
ValparaisoHorz1.561.5682.7682.761.021.02
Western MichiganMAC0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
TulaneAmer0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
TCUB120.200.2054.5554.550.020.02
BaylorB120.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.1674.1974.190.080.08
Murray St.OVC0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
ToledoMAC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
TexasB120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Iowa St.B120.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
IndianaB100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Oregon St.P120.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
CaliforniaP120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Kansas St.B120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
UNLVMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
LamarSlnd0.100.1042.3142.31-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
UC DavisBW0.100.1079.3179.310.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1075.8675.860.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.090.0981.2581.250.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0886.6786.670.060.06
WyomingMWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Ohio St.B100.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
NevadaMWC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0593.9493.940.040.04
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DenverSum0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0274.0774.070.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02