live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:345.0
Current RPI:345
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:336
Current Record:6-24
Expected Record:6-24
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-16
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-24345.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UAB (201.0)CUSAA86-66L0%0.0
11-17George Washington (102.0)A10A61-41L0%0.0
11-23Siena (122.0)MAACA66-43L0%0.0
11-27Hawaii (300.0)BWA64-44L0%0.0
12-1Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH68-73L0%0.0
12-3Central Michigan (216.0)MACA82-59L0%0.0
12-8Little Rock (243.0)SBA67-52L0%0.0
12-12Seattle (287.0)WACA63-58L0%0.0
12-14Oklahoma St. (39.0)B12A102-66L0%0.0
12-17New Mexico (86.0)MWCA83-43L0%0.0
12-19Denver (207.0)SumA74-52L0%0.0
12-22Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA89-49L0%0.0
1-2Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACH105-91W100%0.0
1-7Alabama St. (342.0)SWACH71-63W100%0.0
1-9Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH81-65W100%0.0
1-14Southern (320.0)SWACA76-75L0%0.0
1-16Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACA82-64L0%0.0
1-21Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH63-70L0%0.0
1-23Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH71-68W100%0.0
1-28Grambling St. (317.0)SWACA61-53L0%0.0
1-30Jackson St. (323.0)SWACA74-59L0%0.0
2-4Alabama St. (342.0)SWACA77-65L0%0.0
2-6Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA49-65W100%0.0
2-11Southern (320.0)SWACH68-61W100%0.0
2-13Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH58-70L0%0.0
2-18Texas Southern (108.0)SWACA78-40L0%0.0
2-20Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACA73-55L0%0.0
2-25Grambling St. (317.0)SWACH58-78L0%0.0
2-27Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH51-62L0%0.0
3-4Mississippi Valley St. (334.0)SWACA88-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.3226.3219.3019.30-16.16-16.16
Texas SouthernSWAC4.394.3965.6265.621.371.37
Alcorn St.SWAC4.394.3948.1548.15-0.16-0.16
SouthernSWAC4.354.3542.8642.86-0.62-0.62
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.334.3320.0020.00-2.60-2.60
Grambling St.SWAC4.314.3139.2939.29-0.92-0.92
Prairie View A&MSWAC4.274.2734.4834.48-1.32-1.32
Jackson St.SWAC4.264.2637.0437.04-1.10-1.10
Alabama St.SWAC4.264.2621.4321.43-2.43-2.43
Alabama A&MSWAC4.234.237.417.41-3.61-3.61
Grand CanyonWAC1.841.8467.8667.860.660.66
UABCUSA1.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC1.781.7834.6234.62-0.55-0.55
George WashingtonA101.721.7256.2556.250.210.21
Central MichiganMAC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Little RockSB1.691.6941.3841.38-0.29-0.29
SienaMAAC1.691.6948.4848.48-0.05-0.05
DenverSum1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
HawaiiBW1.671.6742.8642.86-0.24-0.24
New MexicoMWC1.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Oklahoma St.B121.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
Tennessee MartinOVC1.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
Louisiana TechCUSA0.270.2767.7467.740.100.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
TroySB0.220.2258.8258.820.040.04
BaylorB120.220.2277.4277.420.120.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.170.1783.3383.330.120.12
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Kent St.MAC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
TCUB120.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
UMKCWAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
DuquesneA100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Iowa St.B120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
UC RiversideBW0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Texas St.SB0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
George MasonA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
UC DavisBW0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0764.7164.710.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
VermontAE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02