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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:327.1
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:322
Current Record:4-19
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:2.13%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-12
Current OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC Record:1-12
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:128



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19289.00.05%
11-20296.81.21%
10-21306.86.34%
9-22316.616.07%
8-23325.527.70%
7-24332.527.53%
6-25337.315.41%
5-26340.54.97%
4-27342.20.71%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Oklahoma St. (120.3)B12A73-46L0%0.0
11-16Oral Roberts (43.6)SumN80-44L0%0.0
11-21Florida International (212.8)SBN56-58W100%0.0
11-22Southern Methodist (214.4)CUSAN64-55L0%0.0
11-28Auburn (147.6)SECA72-59L0%0.0
12-10Air Force (174.7)MWCA63-51L0%0.0
12-13Michigan (25.3)B10A63-50L0%0.0
12-15Akron (49.0)MACA87-64L0%0.0
12-17DePaul (187.2)BEA81-62L0%0.0
12-21Cincinnati (89.8)BEA101-53L0%0.0
12-28Jacksonville St. (252.5)OVCN78-55L0%0.0
12-29Texas El Paso (178.1)CUSAA79-58L0%0.0
12-31New Mexico St. (73.3)WACA81-65L0%0.0
1-3Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACA82-67L0%0.0
1-7Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACA65-62L0%0.0
1-9Alabama St. (301.5)SWACA62-56L0%0.0
1-14Southern (294.1)SWACH68-69L0%0.0
1-16Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACH75-68W100%0.0
1-21Texas Southern (244.5)SWACA69-55L0%0.0
1-23Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACA76-75L0%0.0
1-28Grambling (341.3)SWACH55-60L0%0.0
1-30Jackson St. (308.4)SWACH73-69W100%0.0
2-4Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH81-75W100%0.0
2-6Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH0-056%1.5
2-11Southern (294.1)SWACA0-031%-5.5
2-13Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACA0-048%-0.6
2-18Prairie View A&M (281.7)SWACH0-055%1.4
2-20Texas Southern (244.5)SWACH0-036%-4.0
2-25Grambling (341.3)SWACA0-070%5.7
2-27Jackson St. (308.4)SWACA0-037%-3.8
3-1Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH0-025%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.3226.4016.4725.57-17.65-12.90
Alabama St.SWAC2.874.2426.3234.61-1.36-1.30
SouthernSWAC2.874.2342.1143.17-0.45-0.58
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.784.1947.6256.06-0.130.51
Jackson St.SWAC2.794.1820.0025.06-1.67-2.09
Alabama A&MSWAC4.834.1613.3325.11-3.54-2.07
Texas SouthernSWAC2.744.1628.5739.28-1.17-0.89
GramblingSWAC2.734.1510.5311.94-2.16-3.16
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.734.1531.5838.35-1.00-0.97
Alcorn St.SWAC2.724.1417.6522.78-1.76-2.26
Texas El PasoCUSA2.421.8140.9141.35-0.44-0.31
Southern MethodistCUSA2.361.7835.0035.64-0.71-0.51
Jacksonville St.OVC2.331.7531.8236.14-0.85-0.49
CincinnatiBE2.321.7368.1864.320.850.49
New Mexico St.WAC2.321.7268.1867.830.840.61
Oral RobertsSum2.281.7080.0080.111.371.02
Florida InternationalSB2.271.7035.0038.59-0.68-0.39
DePaulBE2.271.6947.6240.86-0.11-0.31
MichiganB102.301.6871.4365.660.990.53
Oklahoma St.B122.231.6442.8638.66-0.32-0.37
AuburnSEC2.221.6454.5547.050.20-0.10
AkronMAC2.171.6466.6766.800.720.55
Air ForceMWC2.171.6144.4439.85-0.24-0.33
TulaneCUSA0.390.3261.9058.590.090.06
ArkansasSEC0.250.2569.5765.150.100.07
BaylorB120.250.2290.9183.850.210.15
MississippiSEC0.250.2263.6456.710.070.03
Colorado St.MWC0.250.2066.6760.800.080.04
MarshallCUSA0.250.1959.0959.720.040.04
Iowa St.B120.200.1973.9168.430.100.07
TulsaCUSA0.250.1960.8759.050.050.03
South AlabamaSB0.240.1952.3852.870.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.220.1856.5253.100.030.01
Texas A&MB120.160.1752.3846.150.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.1747.0650.75-0.010.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.150.1785.7182.180.110.11
West VirginiaBE0.200.1765.2265.170.060.05
HoustonCUSA0.200.1747.6244.63-0.01-0.02
RiceCUSA0.150.1747.6246.46-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.240.1631.8225.98-0.09-0.08
NorthwesternB100.150.1661.9055.140.040.02
Texas ChristianMWC0.110.1557.1449.540.02-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.180.1568.1869.100.060.06
North TexasSB0.110.1450.0050.010.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.200.1481.8281.030.130.09
MemphisCUSA0.150.1469.5771.510.060.06
OaklandSum0.190.1448.0050.21-0.010.00
FloridaSEC0.100.1482.6177.630.070.08
UABCUSA0.180.1240.9139.82-0.03-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1271.4369.050.050.04
Wright St.Horz0.160.1141.6740.61-0.03-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1155.0054.480.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1140.9138.38-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1119.0522.37-0.09-0.06
Louisiana St.SEC0.100.1159.0957.280.020.02
NevadaWAC0.100.1180.9576.420.060.06
St. LouisA100.100.1177.2777.670.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.050.1156.5250.270.010.00
Ohio St.B100.100.1186.9685.460.070.08
Michigan St.B100.100.1176.1972.910.050.05
Notre DameBE0.100.1165.2262.650.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1165.2263.740.030.03
IUPUISum0.090.1134.7835.50-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1143.4840.28-0.01-0.02
OklahomaB120.140.1159.0954.700.030.01
NebraskaB100.060.0952.3846.680.00-0.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.100.0982.6181.440.070.06
Middle TennesseeSB0.150.0983.3384.760.100.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.0950.0048.900.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0947.6247.18-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.110.0866.6762.650.040.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0850.0048.360.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.100.0847.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0830.0031.54-0.04-0.03
OregonP120.100.0869.5764.530.040.02
Chicago St.GWC0.150.084.769.95-0.14-0.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.090.0843.4844.25-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0847.6248.82-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.050.0870.8372.230.020.04
Virginia TechACC0.150.0856.5255.200.020.01
North FloridaASun0.100.0845.8346.68-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.WAC0.100.0839.1344.52-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.150.0842.8643.45-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.0855.0057.410.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.100.0850.0056.760.000.01
HawaiiWAC0.090.0857.1453.120.010.01
Kansas St.B120.100.0872.7368.280.040.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.0841.1842.61-0.03-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0878.2672.340.050.04
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0840.9139.56-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.100.0875.0073.970.050.04
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0856.5257.720.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.050.0878.2672.660.030.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.0830.0034.15-0.04-0.03
PittsburghBE0.150.0860.8758.160.030.01
South FloridaBE0.100.0854.5548.600.01-0.00
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.140.0857.1460.750.020.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0879.1775.980.000.04
VillanovaBE0.100.0845.4546.08-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0852.6348.410.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.130.0639.1342.12-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0642.8641.13-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0633.3333.82-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0685.7178.050.040.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0676.1970.730.030.03
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0636.3639.72-0.03-0.01
TroySB0.050.0628.5730.17-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.100.0634.7834.48-0.03-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0652.1750.090.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.110.0619.0524.61-0.07-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0675.0076.000.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0645.4544.02-0.00-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0630.0027.84-0.02-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0645.4546.99-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0638.8943.93-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0626.3229.71-0.04-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.0654.5556.090.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0627.7829.58-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.064.359.66-0.04-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0660.8759.760.020.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0654.5557.690.000.01
Washington St.P120.050.0650.0048.170.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0659.0957.930.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.0681.8281.490.060.04
CaliforniaP120.050.0675.0074.610.030.03
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0690.9187.740.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0533.3335.97-0.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0540.9143.66-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0571.4366.600.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.100.0544.4441.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0540.0041.30-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0568.4266.450.020.02
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.090.0547.8347.87-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0528.5734.20-0.04-0.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0547.6251.08-0.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7364.430.000.02
IndianaB100.100.0575.0075.780.050.03
KansasB120.000.0578.2678.390.000.03
MinnesotaB100.100.0569.5761.310.040.01
MissouriB120.050.0591.3087.180.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0586.9683.160.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.055.267.30-0.04-0.05
OhioMAC0.050.0581.8277.200.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0541.6738.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0565.2260.580.020.01
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0527.2726.95-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0560.8761.370.010.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0550.0052.930.000.00
ConnecticutBE0.050.0568.1863.990.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.0580.9577.380.060.03
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0545.4541.20-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0554.1757.200.010.01
RutgersBE0.100.0550.0046.810.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.100.0595.8392.010.090.04
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.040.0535.0035.31-0.01-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0534.7835.20-0.03-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0561.9063.520.020.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0526.3228.83-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0573.9175.490.040.03
Southern UtahSum0.040.0545.4544.30-0.00-0.01
XavierA100.090.0565.2263.740.030.01
ArmyPat0.060.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0345.0044.15-0.01-0.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0382.6184.570.040.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0337.5038.33-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0372.2271.970.020.01
DaytonA100.050.0360.8760.960.010.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0376.0072.500.030.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0366.6769.690.020.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0354.1754.750.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.038.708.99-0.04-0.02
MarylandACC0.050.0359.0950.820.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0333.3334.47-0.02-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.03100.0094.550.050.03
Weber St.BSky0.050.0380.0076.840.030.02
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0330.4331.43-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0338.1042.78-0.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0324.0024.86-0.03-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0381.8280.430.030.02
DukeACC0.050.0386.3683.090.040.02
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.350.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0372.7371.710.020.01
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.038.7011.67-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0395.8392.570.040.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0319.0521.29-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.75-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0356.5253.770.010.00
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0345.4544.66-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0318.1821.13-0.03-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.034.005.26-0.05-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.610.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0369.5765.870.020.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.800.030.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.060.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0340.9142.96-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0350.0051.530.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02