Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	202.0
Current RPI:	202
Expected SOS:	325
Current SOS:	325
Current Record:	16-14
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	15-3
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-4
Current OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC Record:	1-11
Expected OOC RPI:	287
Expected OOC SOS:	106

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	202.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	N	72-68	L	0%
11-11	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	81-54	L	0%
11-12	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	N	62-52	W	100%
11-21	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	79-43	L	0%
11-24	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	66-38	L	0%
11-28	Arizona St. (90.0)	P12	A	67-54	L	0%
12-1	Oregon (48.0)	P12	A	80-59	L	0%
12-5	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	76-44	L	0%
12-8	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	65-49	L	0%
12-18	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	76-46	L	0%
12-22	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	83-61	L	0%
12-23	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	N	45-62	L	0%
1-2	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	H	79-64	W	100%
1-6	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	H	73-58	W	100%
1-8	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	H	77-61	W	100%
1-12	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	A	84-50	L	0%
1-14	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	A	52-62	W	100%
1-19	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	H	66-63	W	100%
1-21	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	H	55-51	W	100%
1-26	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	A	67-79	W	100%
1-28	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	A	82-67	L	0%
2-2	Alabama St. (328.0)	SWAC	A	77-81	W	100%
2-4	Alabama A&M (329.0)	SWAC	A	67-76	W	100%
2-9	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	H	55-52	W	100%
2-11	Alcorn St. (311.0)	SWAC	H	80-52	W	100%
2-16	Texas Southern (184.0)	SWAC	A	75-69	L	0%
2-18	Prairie View A&M (315.0)	SWAC	A	47-76	W	100%
2-23	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	61-45	W	100%
2-25	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	73-72	W	100%
2-28	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	A	70-78	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	26.34	26.34	61.67	61.67	6.15	6.15
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.40	4.40	41.38	41.38	-0.76	-0.76
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.39	4.39	37.04	37.04	-1.14	-1.14
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.35	4.35	33.33	33.33	-1.45	-1.45
Southern	SWAC	4.34	4.34	70.37	70.37	1.77	1.77
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.32	4.32	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.29	4.29	31.03	31.03	-1.63	-1.63
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.29	4.29	30.00	30.00	-1.72	-1.72
Grambling	SWAC	4.28	4.28	0.00	0.00	-4.28	-4.28
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.22	4.22	19.23	19.23	-2.60	-2.60
Washington St.	P12	1.82	1.82	38.71	38.71	-0.41	-0.41
Oregon	P12	1.80	1.80	75.76	75.76	0.93	0.93
San Diego St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	65.52	65.52	0.55	0.55
Air Force	MWC	1.78	1.78	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.77	1.77	37.04	37.04	-0.46	-0.46
Akron	MAC	1.75	1.75	80.00	80.00	1.05	1.05
Arizona St.	P12	1.74	1.74	62.50	62.50	0.44	0.44
Hawaii	BW	1.73	1.73	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.72	1.72	7.41	7.41	-1.47	-1.47
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Michigan St.	B10	1.72	1.72	74.19	74.19	0.83	0.83
Central Michigan	MAC	1.69	1.69	31.03	31.03	-0.64	-0.64
Houston	CUSA	0.30	0.30	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
Washington	P12	0.26	0.26	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.26	0.26	73.53	73.53	0.12	0.12
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.22	0.22	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Boise St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	65.52	65.52	0.07	0.07
Colorado	P12	0.21	0.21	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Texas Tech	B12	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Utah	P12	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Southern California	P12	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Fresno St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.09	0.09	18.18	18.18	-0.06	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01