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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:311.0
Current RPI:311
Expected SOS:304
Current SOS:304
Current Record:8-25
Expected Record:8-25
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-25311.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Seattle (287.0)WACA56-58W100%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A86-72L0%0.0
11-20Michigan St. (12.0)B10A92-46L0%0.0
11-22Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA99-50L0%0.0
11-24Nebraska (165.0)B10A67-44L0%0.0
11-27Army (214.0)PatA81-60L0%0.0
11-28Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndN62-60W100%0.0
12-2Hawaii (80.0)BWA75-47L0%0.0
12-5Virginia Tech (89.0)ACCA80-45L0%0.0
12-13Iowa St. (23.0)B12A78-64L0%0.0
12-15Santa Clara (251.0)WCCA69-57L0%0.0
12-19Texas Tech (36.0)B12A94-54L0%0.0
12-21Ohio (81.0)MACA65-58L0%0.0
12-29Missouri (222.0)SECA78-25L0%0.0
1-4Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACA66-60L0%0.0
1-9Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA85-70L0%0.0
1-11Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA55-59W100%0.0
1-16Southern (186.0)SWACH55-69L0%0.0
1-18Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH65-73L0%0.0
1-23Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA44-45W100%0.0
1-25Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA78-49L0%0.0
1-30Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH63-59W100%0.0
2-1Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH53-66L0%0.0
2-6Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH66-71L0%0.0
2-8Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH75-70W100%0.0
2-13Southern (186.0)SWACA66-58L0%0.0
2-15Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACA79-60L0%0.0
2-20Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACH55-57L0%0.0
2-22Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH52-54L0%0.0
2-27Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA51-53W100%0.0
2-29Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA67-56L0%0.0
3-5Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH78-71W100%0.0
3-8Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACN61-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.3726.3729.3729.37-10.88-10.88
Alabama A&MSWAC5.395.3928.0028.00-2.37-2.37
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.134.1321.2121.21-2.38-2.38
Jackson St.SWAC4.084.0850.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC4.064.0658.6258.620.700.70
Texas SouthernSWAC4.024.0253.3353.330.270.27
Prairie View A&MSWAC3.963.9620.6920.69-2.32-2.32
Alabama St.SWAC3.953.9544.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Grambling St.SWAC3.943.9415.3815.38-2.73-2.73
Alcorn St.SWAC3.923.9242.3142.31-0.60-0.60
NebraskaB101.681.6845.4545.45-0.15-0.15
Iowa St.B121.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Virginia TechACC1.651.6556.2556.250.210.21
Texas TechB121.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
Oklahoma St.B121.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
CincinnatiAmer1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
HawaiiBW1.581.5882.7682.761.041.04
OhioMAC1.561.5663.3363.330.420.42
SeattleWAC1.561.5644.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Michigan St.B101.541.5484.8584.851.071.07
ArmyPat1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
MissouriSEC1.521.5230.0030.00-0.61-0.61
Santa ClaraWCC1.521.5231.0331.03-0.57-0.57
BaylorB120.290.2965.6265.620.090.09
TCUB120.240.2436.3636.36-0.07-0.07
TulaneAmer0.200.2035.2935.29-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.2079.3179.310.120.12
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2070.0070.000.080.08
OklahomaB120.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
Kansas St.B120.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
West VirginiaB120.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
KansasB120.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
NorthwesternB100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1620.6920.69-0.09-0.09
MemphisAmer0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.140.1462.5062.500.040.04
Ohio St.B100.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
WisconsinB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
BYUWCC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
RutgersB100.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
MercerSC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
PortlandWCC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
HoustonAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
IowaB100.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MarylandB100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Saint LouisA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
UC IrvineBW0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0731.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
LehighPat0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MichiganB100.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
DuquesneA100.040.0448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
High PointBSth0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MaineAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
ColoradoP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.010.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
VMISC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02