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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Arkansas Pine Bluff

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:313.3
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:310
Current SOS:285
Current Record:6-19
Expected Record:8-24
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:245
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19249.00.01%
12-20264.20.18%
11-21279.01.80%
10-22292.410.32%
9-23304.826.64%
8-24316.934.97%
7-25326.521.09%
6-26334.44.98%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas Pine Bluff.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Seattle (268.7)WACA56-58W100%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (149.2)B12A86-72L0%0.0
11-20Michigan St. (18.7)B10A92-46L0%0.0
11-22Cincinnati (46.9)AmerA99-50L0%0.0
11-24Nebraska (149.2)B10A67-44L0%0.0
11-27Army (217.9)PatA81-60L0%0.0
11-28Southeastern Louisiana (337.5)SlndN62-60W100%0.0
12-2Hawaii (81.4)BWA75-47L0%0.0
12-5Virginia Tech (130.3)ACCA80-45L0%0.0
12-13Iowa St. (20.7)B12A78-64L0%0.0
12-15Santa Clara (261.6)WCCA69-57L0%0.0
12-19Texas Tech (56.7)B12A94-54L0%0.0
12-21Ohio (96.0)MACA65-58L0%0.0
12-29Missouri (222.4)SECA78-25L0%0.0
1-4Mississippi Valley St. (324.2)SWACA66-60L0%0.0
1-9Alabama A&M (307.0)SWACA85-70L0%0.0
1-11Alabama St. (305.5)SWACA55-59W100%0.0
1-16Southern (179.1)SWACH55-69L0%0.0
1-18Alcorn St. (280.3)SWACH65-73L0%0.0
1-23Prairie View A&M (343.9)SWACA44-45W100%0.0
1-25Texas Southern (194.2)SWACA78-49L0%0.0
1-30Grambling St. (346.2)SWACH63-59W100%0.0
2-1Jackson St. (217.9)SWACH53-66L0%0.0
2-6Alabama A&M (307.0)SWACH66-71L0%0.0
2-8Alabama St. (305.5)SWACH75-70W100%0.0
2-13Southern (179.1)SWACA0-07%-16.3
2-15Alcorn St. (280.3)SWACA0-031%-5.4
2-20Prairie View A&M (343.9)SWACH0-057%1.8
2-22Texas Southern (194.2)SWACH0-016%-11.0
2-27Grambling St. (346.2)SWACA0-043%-1.8
2-29Jackson St. (217.9)SWACA0-09%-14.7
3-5Mississippi Valley St. (324.2)SWACH0-060%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas Pine Bluff's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas Pine Bluff's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas Pine Bluff.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC26.3326.3630.4830.99-10.28-10.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.824.1016.6719.06-1.88-2.54
Jackson St.SWAC2.674.0647.6251.11-0.130.09
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.564.039.5216.81-2.08-2.68
SouthernSWAC2.624.0360.0062.920.521.04
Alabama St.SWAC4.514.0331.5835.86-1.66-1.14
Grambling St.SWAC2.614.0215.7917.31-1.79-2.63
Texas SouthernSWAC2.524.0142.8651.47-0.360.12
Alcorn St.SWAC2.574.0036.8436.81-0.68-1.05
Alabama A&MSWAC4.463.9929.4138.12-1.84-0.95
NebraskaB102.211.7450.0049.120.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd2.171.7215.0025.79-1.52-0.83
Iowa St.B122.211.7269.5766.900.860.58
Virginia TechACC2.191.7050.0047.210.00-0.09
Texas TechB122.171.6959.0953.760.400.13
Oklahoma St.B122.091.6643.4840.38-0.27-0.32
CincinnatiAmer2.131.6470.8370.630.890.68
HawaiiBW2.081.6484.2182.801.431.07
OhioMAC2.051.6261.9060.100.490.33
SeattleWAC2.041.6150.0046.820.00-0.10
Michigan St.B102.041.5979.1780.941.190.98
ArmyPat2.001.5652.1752.660.090.08
MissouriSEC2.001.5630.4327.95-0.78-0.69
Santa ClaraWCC2.001.5630.4329.62-0.78-0.64
BaylorB120.300.3173.9168.450.150.11
TCUB120.260.2345.8339.36-0.02-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.2282.6181.130.120.14
Louisiana TechCUSA0.190.2272.7370.520.090.09
TulaneAmer0.240.1936.0034.84-0.07-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.280.1972.0073.080.120.09
OklahomaB120.220.1886.9682.620.160.12
KansasB120.170.1882.6179.200.110.10
Kansas St.B120.170.1858.3356.290.030.02
West VirginiaB120.170.1879.1778.100.100.10
NorthwesternB100.200.1764.0062.090.060.04
MemphisAmer0.180.1658.3359.310.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1643.4843.77-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.170.1566.6762.200.060.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1468.1865.170.050.04
Chicago St.WAC0.230.144.357.72-0.21-0.12
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.1424.0024.16-0.13-0.07
IndianaB100.090.1380.0075.690.050.07
Ohio St.B100.050.1360.0055.560.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.130.1350.0052.940.000.01
WisconsinB100.130.1362.5057.000.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.200.1160.8757.130.040.02
MercerSC0.150.1166.6767.110.050.04
MarquetteBE0.100.1164.0057.890.030.02
PortlandWCC0.130.1138.4638.04-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.140.1145.8341.63-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.180.1183.3379.820.120.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1150.0050.500.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.1165.2268.600.030.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.1141.6739.49-0.01-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1147.8351.92-0.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.1134.7833.02-0.01-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.1025.0033.23-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.080.1068.0070.260.030.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.1065.2264.340.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1075.0075.340.070.05
TulsaAmer0.130.1066.6764.700.040.03
HoustonAmer0.090.1070.8367.980.040.04
MinnesotaB100.170.1025.0027.26-0.08-0.05
IllinoisB100.160.1045.8344.07-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.160.1079.1778.880.090.06
Penn St.B100.040.1050.0046.770.00-0.01
RutgersB100.120.1021.7420.34-0.07-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0933.3330.63-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.100.0938.1035.34-0.02-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.150.0945.4551.69-0.010.00
UMKCWAC0.140.0928.5732.75-0.06-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0825.0025.08-0.05-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.090.0869.5770.020.040.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.150.0857.1457.670.020.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0829.1733.11-0.04-0.03
OaklandHorz0.090.0865.3865.510.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0818.1821.11-0.03-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.0836.3638.97-0.03-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.140.0883.3383.710.090.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0858.3358.580.010.01
AuburnSEC0.130.0839.1335.45-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0835.0034.83-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0840.9138.82-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0850.0045.770.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0856.5257.060.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.090.0866.6763.300.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.0860.0057.650.030.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0838.1037.67-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.090.0824.0024.92-0.05-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0847.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0872.2275.600.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0829.1726.69-0.03-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0048.130.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.090.0858.3358.400.010.01
CreightonBE0.090.0864.0062.070.020.02
RadfordBSth0.090.0852.1754.100.000.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0868.0064.090.030.02
VCUA100.090.0870.8371.050.040.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0843.4837.80-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0866.6766.320.030.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0882.6177.580.030.04
PurdueB100.080.0880.0077.910.050.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0726.9228.60-0.04-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0666.6767.670.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0654.5555.550.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.110.0647.8350.89-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.110.0634.7832.39-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0613.0415.26-0.08-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.44-0.03-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0633.3334.95-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.0645.4546.08-0.01-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.100.0628.5734.11-0.04-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0631.8230.08-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0668.1871.350.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.050.0654.1754.200.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0623.8122.86-0.05-0.03
NevadaMWC0.090.0657.1455.360.010.01
ElonCAA0.100.0650.0050.070.000.00
WinthropBSth0.100.0666.6763.780.030.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0643.4842.54-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0556.0055.450.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0582.6181.140.030.03
AmericanPat0.040.0529.1731.19-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0556.0056.510.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0552.1754.940.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0029.89-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.080.0543.4844.90-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0543.4845.21-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0579.1777.510.050.03
Holy CrossPat0.040.0541.6739.59-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0565.2260.600.030.01
LafayettePat0.080.0520.8321.68-0.05-0.03
LehighPat0.040.0539.1342.83-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.040.0541.6741.18-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0533.3335.18-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0522.2231.22-0.03-0.02
NavyPat0.040.0564.0064.460.010.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0526.3232.40-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0517.6526.67-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0579.1777.200.030.03
PacificWCC0.040.0523.8125.99-0.02-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.040.0558.3360.900.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0581.8281.780.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0530.4328.20-0.03-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0552.1749.150.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0530.0031.76-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0545.0049.27-0.01-0.00
ArizonaP120.080.0579.1778.290.050.03
BinghamtonAE0.080.0524.0026.44-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0540.0043.39-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0575.0071.960.040.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0554.1752.000.010.00
LamarSlnd0.090.0530.0029.13-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0543.4850.64-0.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.8760.670.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0558.3360.710.010.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0540.0038.88-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0552.1755.070.000.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.0412.96-0.03-0.04
Washington St.P120.050.0534.7831.64-0.01-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0570.8370.130.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0559.0955.160.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0579.1775.990.050.03
MarylandB100.080.0587.5083.660.060.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0529.1733.75-0.03-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0570.8366.750.030.02
MississippiSEC0.040.0562.5058.940.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0550.0048.950.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0572.7367.600.020.02
SMUAmer0.040.0586.9682.920.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0586.9680.420.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0520.0019.73-0.05-0.03
TempleAmer0.080.0565.2262.370.020.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0583.3378.460.050.03
Wake ForestACC0.040.0541.6739.90-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.080.0587.5081.850.060.03
DuquesneA100.040.0560.8756.270.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.040.0531.8232.46-0.01-0.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0366.6764.780.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0340.0045.20-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.140.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.75-0.03-0.01
DenverSum0.040.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.040.0352.1753.720.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.870.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.100.000.00
LipscombASun0.040.0328.0030.49-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.040.0332.0031.16-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.040.0321.7424.25-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.110.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0360.8762.470.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0380.0081.160.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.370.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.040.0386.3684.220.030.02
High PointBSth0.040.0357.1459.870.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0356.5255.820.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0373.9174.640.020.01
UtahP120.040.0370.8368.520.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0360.8755.980.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0360.8760.440.010.01
ButlerBE0.040.0370.8369.000.020.01
ColoradoP120.040.0370.8365.580.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.039.0912.26-0.03-0.02
DukeACC0.040.0375.0071.840.020.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0333.3333.63-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.040.0375.0072.610.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0362.5059.080.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0319.0525.90-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.040.0383.3378.380.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0360.8759.830.010.00
NortheasternCAA0.040.0348.0048.60-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.040.0370.8367.930.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0372.0069.130.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.040.0358.3357.250.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0383.3381.280.030.02
SamfordSC0.040.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.040.0362.5057.730.010.00
UCFAmer0.040.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0358.3359.970.010.01
VillanovaBE0.040.0387.5086.850.030.02
VMISC0.040.0319.0519.67-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.040.0331.8234.54-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.040.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00