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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:268.4
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:350
Current SOS:350
Current Record:7-9
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:4-1
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-8
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9212.91.40%
17-10228.47.52%
16-11244.318.50%
15-12261.026.44%
14-13278.324.11%
13-14296.313.69%
12-15312.16.08%
11-16326.11.89%
10-17335.80.34%
9-18343.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA65-55L0%0.0
11-13Evansville (159.2)MVCA68-55L0%0.0
11-15Tennessee Martin (301.8)OVCA74-57L0%0.0
11-19Southern (302.8)SWACH80-67W100%0.0
11-22Marshall (101.3)CUSAA92-84L0%0.0
11-24Illinois (161.2)B10A86-73L0%0.0
11-26Southeast Missouri St. (243.3)OVCA70-77W100%0.0
12-2Southeast Missouri St. (243.3)OVCH77-86L0%0.0
12-9George Mason (224.7)A10A77-65L0%0.0
12-11Grand Canyon (147.1)WACA64-59L0%0.0
12-14McNeese St. (297.1)SlndH77-71W100%0.0
1-3Delaware St. (350.3)MEACA62-65W100%0.0
1-8Norfolk St. (292.1)MEACH64-63W100%0.0
1-13Coppin St. (342.5)MEACH81-61W100%0.0
1-15Morgan St. (312.3)MEACH77-63W100%0.0
1-20Howard (331.8)MEACA84-78L0%0.0
1-22Maryland Eastern Shore (335.1)MEACA0-076%8.0
1-27North Carolina A&T (241.0)MEACA0-047%-1.0
2-3Delaware St. (350.3)MEACH0-093%16.1
2-5Hampton (287.4)MEACH0-062%3.5
2-10Florida A&M (340.3)MEACA0-071%6.2
2-12Bethune Cookman (288.3)MEACA0-052%0.6
2-17Maryland Eastern Shore (335.1)MEACH0-090%14.4
2-19Howard (331.8)MEACH0-074%7.0
2-24South Carolina St. (325.7)MEACA0-067%4.9
2-26Savannah St. (246.7)MEACA0-060%2.9
3-1North Carolina A&T (241.0)MEACH0-069%5.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.5226.1848.3359.38-0.884.91
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.354.3455.5657.810.040.68
Delaware St.MEAC3.214.310.009.49-3.21-3.49
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.094.3115.7921.22-0.06-2.48
HowardMEAC3.124.285.5624.63-2.78-2.17
Southeast Missouri St.OVC6.333.8041.1843.03-1.12-0.53
Florida A&MMEAC0.502.5910.0019.32-0.40-1.59
Morgan St.MEAC3.362.5531.2541.15-1.26-0.45
Norfolk St.MEAC3.282.4920.0038.19-1.97-0.59
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.162.4950.0052.620.000.13
Coppin St.MEAC3.312.4710.0018.50-2.65-1.55
Savannah St.MEAC0.252.4727.7834.31-0.11-0.77
South Carolina St.MEAC0.262.4627.7831.67-0.12-0.90
HamptonMEAC0.082.3920.0041.88-0.05-0.39
Tennessee MartinOVC3.382.0722.2229.06-1.88-0.87
Grand CanyonWAC3.401.9868.4270.201.250.80
IllinoisB103.451.9844.4442.35-0.38-0.30
SouthernSWAC3.371.9829.4142.44-1.39-0.30
MarshallCUSA3.381.9566.6762.391.130.48
EvansvilleMVC3.291.9250.0045.640.00-0.17
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.211.9238.8944.08-0.71-0.23
George MasonA103.221.8942.1139.35-0.51-0.40
McNeese St.Slnd3.121.8530.7732.56-1.20-0.65
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.430.2631.5832.72-0.16-0.09
Austin PeayOVC0.410.2544.4446.00-0.05-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.330.2223.5328.69-0.17-0.09
DuquesneA100.160.2270.0058.090.060.04
GeorgetownBE0.160.2268.4254.070.060.02
Murray St.OVC0.250.2270.5975.950.100.11
George WashingtonA100.250.1945.0043.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.1929.4133.93-0.10-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.1970.0068.220.030.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.1936.8432.76-0.06-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.1955.0052.470.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.330.1642.1139.94-0.05-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.250.1635.2940.48-0.07-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1657.8953.190.000.01
UMKCWAC0.320.1621.0524.75-0.19-0.08
Old DominionCUSA0.180.1678.9576.750.100.08
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1642.1132.47-0.02-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.410.1652.6355.290.020.02
LamarSlnd0.000.1450.0054.890.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1370.0068.300.070.05
South FloridaAmer0.170.1335.0026.12-0.05-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1345.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.260.1378.9574.190.150.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.330.1317.6519.30-0.22-0.08
AmericanPat0.080.1326.3228.11-0.04-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.250.1327.7831.11-0.11-0.05
BradleyMVC0.330.1365.0057.880.100.02
DrakeMVC0.080.1355.0048.980.01-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1336.8444.11-0.04-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.1338.8943.43-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1333.3333.770.00-0.04
LibertyBSth0.080.1350.0054.190.000.01
PennIvy0.160.1364.7162.720.050.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.1368.4257.740.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.160.1364.7159.990.050.03
DePaulBE0.250.1342.1134.31-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.1357.8950.710.010.00
NebraskaB100.160.1366.6759.820.050.02
PittsburghACC0.190.1040.0030.87-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.110.1044.4446.65-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.1016.6724.26-0.06-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1030.0036.50-0.07-0.03
BelmontOVC0.250.1071.4374.660.110.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.1077.7879.150.050.06
Fort WayneSum0.160.1052.6351.690.010.00
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1047.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.100.0010.67-0.16-0.08
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1027.7827.100.00-0.04
TroySB0.160.1035.2942.76-0.05-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0970.0065.250.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.0983.3384.240.110.06
UTEPCUSA0.080.0933.3334.10-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0952.3848.530.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.0920.0023.34-0.09-0.05
Green BayHorz0.080.0925.0027.94-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.240.0947.3746.92-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6768.730.000.04
UMBCAE0.160.0955.5655.540.020.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0985.0083.200.000.06
WisconsinB100.080.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0952.6343.110.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.160.0950.0051.640.000.00
RutgersB100.070.0955.0046.690.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.150.0961.9055.760.040.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.075.8819.35-0.10-0.05
New OrleansSlnd0.110.0737.5045.24-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0750.0051.380.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.077.1414.82-0.10-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0752.9455.030.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0745.0049.290.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.0783.3381.370.070.04
RiderMAAC0.000.0765.0065.320.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0780.0078.850.000.04
VirginiaACC0.000.0794.7486.140.000.05
XavierBE0.080.0785.7180.080.060.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.180.0658.8249.760.03-0.00
Little RockSB0.180.0622.2225.25-0.10-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.0657.1460.410.030.01
San DiegoWCC0.180.0663.1657.540.050.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.170.0642.1144.96-0.03-0.01
NavyPat0.170.0660.0055.160.030.01
West VirginiaB120.170.0684.2178.170.110.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0610.5316.750.00-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0612.5025.450.00-0.03
BaylorB120.090.0661.1156.090.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0629.4133.200.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.060.003.07-0.08-0.06
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.240.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0070.700.000.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0621.0525.970.00-0.03
DukeACC0.170.0689.4785.210.130.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0680.9583.260.050.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0644.4446.02-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0661.1147.220.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.080.0627.7829.83-0.04-0.03
Kansas St.B120.160.0673.6862.720.080.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0645.0047.07-0.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.160.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0644.4450.080.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0666.6773.210.030.03
OaklandHorz0.080.0661.9065.160.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0621.0539.48-0.05-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0657.8958.850.000.01
SeattleWAC0.080.0657.8954.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0621.0544.26-0.05-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0618.7518.360.00-0.04
UCFAmer0.090.0668.4260.860.030.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0622.2227.33-0.05-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0647.3748.770.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0668.4269.250.030.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0621.0523.51-0.05-0.03
AuburnSEC0.180.0689.4777.000.140.03
AkronMAC0.160.0647.0644.91-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.160.0622.2228.59-0.09-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.02
IowaB100.170.0647.6244.02-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.160.0616.6716.16-0.11-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.4785.550.060.04
Fresno St.MWC0.160.0666.6763.420.050.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0666.6765.370.030.02
LouisvilleACC0.160.0678.9569.790.090.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0672.2258.920.040.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0672.2274.710.040.03
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.130.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0668.4270.810.030.03
OhioMAC0.160.0647.0648.41-0.01-0.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0673.6865.260.040.02
FordhamA100.000.0631.5829.060.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0631.5834.360.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0660.0059.700.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.0452.9452.650.010.00
HoustonAmer0.110.0478.9572.990.060.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.047.6920.09-0.09-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0427.7829.10-0.05-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0443.7549.130.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0458.8262.820.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.047.6923.280.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0333.3337.230.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0327.7838.140.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0338.8940.780.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0350.0050.860.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1115.290.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0363.1665.970.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.0344.4444.92-0.01-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.100.0357.1453.050.010.00
Stony BrookAE0.100.0336.8445.21-0.03-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0378.9576.990.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.670.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.260.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0323.5328.210.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0361.9063.140.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0325.0031.450.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.640.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0321.4326.35-0.05-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0366.6768.540.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0316.6724.910.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.970.040.01
LSUSEC0.080.0361.1153.170.020.00
New MexicoMWC0.080.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0365.0056.340.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.080.0347.3742.16-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.930.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0363.1657.890.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0317.6523.86-0.05-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0365.0062.050.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0061.440.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0347.3741.440.00-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0378.9577.380.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0059.450.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0341.1847.560.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.540.00-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0376.1970.740.040.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0363.6457.630.020.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0366.6763.200.030.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0355.0050.330.010.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0390.4888.370.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.680.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.700.030.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0361.1158.700.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.450.010.01
DaytonA100.000.0347.3750.940.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.24-0.04-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.690.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.080.0322.2227.47-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0344.4454.860.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7870.480.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0344.4450.310.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0331.5835.150.00-0.01
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.850.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0383.3381.430.050.02
TexasB120.000.0363.1657.630.000.00