North Carolina Central

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	233.0
Current RPI:	233
Expected SOS:	320
Current SOS:	320
Current Record:	13-15
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	11-7
Expected Conf Record:	11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-6
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	214
Expected OOC SOS:	74

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	233.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Charlotte (167.0)	A10	A	73-57	L	0%
11-16	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	A	87-83	L	0%
11-20	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	A	93-79	L	0%
12-3	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	H	65-46	W	100%
12-6	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	A	75-62	L	0%
12-11	North Carolina St. (49.0)	ACC	A	65-60	L	0%
12-20	Oregon (67.0)	P12	A	58-45	L	0%
12-21	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	N	65-57	W	100%
12-22	Prairie View A&M (294.0)	SWAC	N	58-69	W	100%
12-29	East Carolina (164.0)	CUSA	A	84-76	L	0%
1-7	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	H	60-62	L	0%
1-9	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	H	69-64	W	100%
1-16	Howard (284.0)	MEAC	A	53-69	W	100%
1-21	Coppin St. (276.0)	MEAC	A	77-57	L	0%
1-23	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	A	71-64	L	0%
1-28	Delaware St. (249.0)	MEAC	H	70-76	L	0%
1-30	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	H	77-46	W	100%
2-4	Florida A&M (316.0)	MEAC	A	61-78	W	100%
2-6	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	A	79-81	W	100%
2-11	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	H	57-67	L	0%
2-13	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	71-56	W	100%
2-18	North Carolina A&T (289.0)	MEAC	A	66-71	W	100%
2-22	Indiana (17.0)	B10	A	75-56	L	0%
2-25	Savannah St. (191.0)	MEAC	A	60-47	L	0%
2-27	South Carolina St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	57-71	W	100%
3-1	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	A	45-60	W	100%
3-6	Maryland Eastern Shore (320.0)	MEAC	N	60-43	W	100%
3-8	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	N	60-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Carolina Central	MEAC	26.30	26.30	53.91	53.91	2.05	2.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	6.11	6.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	4.35	4.35	24.14	24.14	-2.25	-2.25
Savannah St.	MEAC	4.33	4.33	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
South Carolina St.	MEAC	4.33	4.33	11.11	11.11	-3.37	-3.37
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	4.31	4.31	33.33	33.33	-1.44	-1.44
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	4.11	4.11	22.22	22.22	-2.29	-2.29
Howard	MEAC	2.54	2.54	31.03	31.03	-0.96	-0.96
Hampton	MEAC	2.53	2.53	37.50	37.50	-0.63	-0.63
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.52	2.52	46.15	46.15	-0.19	-0.19
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.47	2.47	36.00	36.00	-0.69	-0.69
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.39	2.39	28.57	28.57	-1.03	-1.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.90	1.90	63.64	63.64	0.52	0.52
Indiana	B10	1.90	1.90	75.00	75.00	0.95	0.95
Charlotte	A10	1.85	1.85	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Oregon	P12	1.85	1.85	70.00	70.00	0.74	0.74
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.85	1.85	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.85	1.85	59.26	59.26	0.34	0.34
Wake Forest	ACC	1.84	1.84	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.82	1.82	44.83	44.83	-0.19	-0.19
Wagner	NEC	1.82	1.82	80.00	80.00	1.09	1.09
East Carolina	CUSA	1.82	1.82	38.46	38.46	-0.42	-0.42
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.92	0.92	75.00	75.00	0.46	0.46
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.30	0.30	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.26	0.26	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.23	0.23	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Stetson	ASun	0.23	0.23	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Longwood	ind	0.21	0.21	22.22	22.22	-0.12	-0.12
Central Florida	CUSA	0.21	0.21	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
North Florida	ASun	0.20	0.20	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.19	0.19	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Stanford	P12	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.93	25.93	-0.08	-0.08
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.10	0.10
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	18.75	18.75	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01