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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:128.0
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:345
Current Record:22-7
Expected Record:22-7
Current Conf Record:17-1
Expected Conf Record:17-1
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-1
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:115
Expected OOC SOS:148



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-7128.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina (11.0)ACCA76-60L0%0.0
11-23Creighton (151.0)BEA65-45L0%0.0
11-25Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA59-50L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCN65-40W100%0.0
11-29Northern Arizona (166.0)BSkyN36-40W100%0.0
12-5Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACA63-68W100%0.0
12-7Howard (255.0)MEACN39-61W100%0.0
12-10Maryland (13.0)B10A67-56L0%0.0
12-15Memphis (83.0)AmerA81-47L0%0.0
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (345.0)SWACA60-94W100%0.0
12-22Jackson St. (322.0)SWACA64-67W100%0.0
12-29IUPUI (260.0)SumH70-49W100%0.0
1-10South Carolina St. (320.0)MEACH76-45W100%0.0
1-12Savannah St. (331.0)MEACH58-40W100%0.0
1-17Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACA56-60W100%0.0
1-19Hampton (251.0)MEACA52-59W100%0.0
1-24Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH79-77W100%0.0
1-26Delaware St. (204.0)MEACH55-54W100%0.0
1-31East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA61-59L0%0.0
2-2Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH85-43W100%0.0
2-7North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA44-58W100%0.0
2-14Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA51-65W100%0.0
2-16Florida A&M (350.0)MEACA48-73W100%0.0
2-21Morgan St. (337.0)MEACH74-59W100%0.0
2-28Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACH72-49W100%0.0
3-2Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA49-62W100%0.0
3-5North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH69-58W100%0.0
3-11Coppin St. (311.0)MEACN91-43W100%0.0
3-13Delaware St. (204.0)MEACN57-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.1526.1582.7182.7117.1117.11
Delaware St.MEAC4.164.1648.3948.39-0.13-0.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.134.1325.0025.00-2.07-2.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.104.1032.1432.14-1.47-1.47
Coppin St.MEAC4.104.1025.0025.00-2.05-2.05
Savannah St.MEAC4.104.1025.9325.93-1.97-1.97
Florida A&MMEAC4.074.077.417.41-3.47-3.47
HamptonMEAC2.512.5150.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC2.492.4930.0030.00-1.00-1.00
Norfolk St.MEAC2.432.4360.0060.000.490.49
HowardMEAC2.422.4246.4346.43-0.17-0.17
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.372.3758.0658.060.380.38
Morgan St.MEAC2.372.3723.3323.33-1.26-1.26
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.841.8419.3519.35-1.12-1.12
CincinnatiAmer1.811.8167.7467.740.640.64
Northern ArizonaBSky1.781.7858.0658.060.290.29
Jackson St.SWAC1.781.7835.4835.48-0.52-0.52
MemphisAmer1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.781.7853.5753.570.130.13
CreightonBE1.751.7540.6240.62-0.33-0.33
IUPUISum1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
East Tennessee St.SC1.721.7248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
MarylandB101.721.7281.2581.251.081.08
North CarolinaACC1.721.7267.6567.650.610.61
USC UpstateASun0.250.2563.3363.330.070.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.2360.7160.710.050.05
TulaneAmer0.220.2246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1958.8258.820.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.180.1821.4321.43-0.10-0.10
WinthropBSth0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
UCFAmer0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
NJITind0.140.1456.0056.000.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1362.9662.960.030.03
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.130.1316.6716.67-0.09-0.09
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
VirginiaACC0.130.1390.6290.620.110.11
MercerSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
The CitadelSC0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Miami FLACC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
DenverSum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
FordhamA100.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
IllinoisB100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
OregonP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
SMUAmer0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.06-0.06
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
DePaulBE0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Michigan St.B100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DavidsonA100.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
KentuckySEC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
PittsburghACC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01