live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:170.9
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:348
Current SOS:5
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:17-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:171



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-388.00.06%
21-497.81.19%
20-5112.64.51%
19-6130.112.60%
18-7147.320.02%
17-8166.522.37%
16-9188.018.57%
15-10210.411.73%
14-11235.06.11%
13-12258.62.09%
12-13279.10.59%
11-14304.30.12%
10-15311.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina (10.0)ACCA76-60L0%0.0
11-23Creighton (67.3)BEA65-45L0%0.0
11-25Cincinnati (67.9)AmerA59-50L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Illinois (263.1)OVCN0-071%6.5
12-5Maryland Eastern Shore (321.6)MEACA0-078%9.3
12-7Howard (267.3)MEACN0-075%8.0
12-10Maryland (45.5)B10A0-011%-14.9
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (348.3)SWACN0-095%20.0
12-22Jackson St. (285.7)SWACA0-068%5.7
12-29IUPUI (270.3)SumH0-086%12.9
1-10South Carolina St. (286.7)MEACH0-087%13.7
1-12Savannah St. (298.9)MEACH0-092%16.6
1-17Norfolk St. (232.2)MEACA0-058%2.5
1-19Hampton (268.8)MEACA0-061%3.5
1-24Coppin St. (283.8)MEACH0-090%15.3
1-26Delaware St. (279.5)MEACH0-087%13.4
1-31East Tennessee St. (147.8)SCA0-045%-1.4
2-2Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH0-097%21.9
2-7North Carolina A&T (319.2)MEACA0-077%9.1
2-14Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACA0-082%10.8
2-16Florida A&M (346.8)MEACA0-089%14.8
2-21Morgan St. (284.6)MEACH0-083%11.6
2-28Bethune Cookman (338.6)MEACH0-093%18.0
3-2Savannah St. (298.9)MEACA0-078%9.4
3-5North Carolina A&T (319.2)MEACH0-091%16.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC30.4226.150.0073.71-30.4212.40
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.700.0019.90-0.00-2.83
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.004.700.0029.58-0.00-1.92
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.6720.0032.63-0.00-1.62
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.6640.0034.58-0.00-1.44
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.730.0037.70-0.00-0.67
HowardMEAC0.002.6925.0045.77-0.00-0.23
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.002.6714.2931.15-0.00-1.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.6616.6740.40-0.00-0.51
HamptonMEAC0.002.6616.6745.59-0.00-0.23
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.6625.0040.12-0.00-0.53
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.660.0028.68-0.00-1.14
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.6625.0048.07-0.00-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.752.070.0036.13-3.75-0.57
Jackson St.SWAC0.002.0720.0043.76-0.00-0.26
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.002.060.0015.83-0.00-1.41
CincinnatiAmer16.672.04100.0060.6916.670.44
CreightonBE16.672.04100.0060.1716.670.41
IUPUISum0.002.0440.0030.77-0.00-0.78
East Tennessee St.SC0.002.0066.6758.290.000.33
MarylandB100.002.00100.0070.720.000.83
North CarolinaACC16.672.0075.0073.208.330.93
USC UpstateASun0.000.2875.0057.260.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.25100.0057.070.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.2133.3353.65-0.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.210.0029.60-0.00-0.08
TulaneAmer0.000.2066.6739.850.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1866.6741.200.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.170.0025.17-0.00-0.08
IndianaB100.000.1780.0056.380.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.1766.6760.700.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1725.0035.86-0.00-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0041.21-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0033.90-0.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1450.0054.380.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.140.0028.25-0.00-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1433.3346.51-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.14100.0078.880.000.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.14100.0078.390.000.08
TowsonCAA0.000.1480.0057.880.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1440.0046.34-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1440.0051.36-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.14100.0074.590.000.07
VirginiaACC0.000.14100.0073.330.000.06
NJITind0.000.1420.0030.12-0.00-0.05
FordhamA100.000.140.0026.23-0.00-0.06
UCFAmer0.000.1466.6741.780.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.13100.0078.730.000.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.13100.0064.840.000.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0032.17-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0063.05-0.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1316.6732.00-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0020.98-0.00-0.08
NebraskaB100.000.1375.0052.330.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.130.0040.56-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.130.0035.47-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1125.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1125.0031.20-0.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC2.080.1133.3358.80-0.690.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.110.0025.08-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.110.0028.00-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.1125.0046.52-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.1125.0035.97-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1150.0047.680.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1080.0074.880.000.05
HofstraCAA0.000.1060.0068.830.000.04
VCUA100.000.1080.0073.390.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.10100.0067.700.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1075.0069.780.000.04
DenverSum0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.1060.0050.620.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.1060.0053.400.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.100.0030.72-0.00-0.04
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1050.0052.540.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1050.0047.410.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.1075.0039.180.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.1060.0050.480.000.00
IowaB100.000.1066.6765.220.000.03
ButlerBE1.670.1080.0071.411.000.04
MarquetteBE0.000.1060.0039.990.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0038.79-0.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.10100.0075.980.000.05
Virginia TechACC0.000.1060.0035.980.00-0.03
Penn St.B100.000.1083.3348.340.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0820.0039.02-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0833.3367.57-0.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.080.0033.42-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0825.0043.27-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.08100.0052.620.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0850.0037.530.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0740.0054.85-0.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3335.99-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0740.0047.99-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0780.0077.100.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0725.0027.48-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0760.0040.420.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0031.400.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0720.0038.45-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0067.380.000.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0733.3363.17-0.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0750.0046.120.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0066.230.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0760.0056.260.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0750.0045.460.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0725.0039.34-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0775.0046.860.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0750.0052.250.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0720.0050.32-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0760.0063.290.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.070.0052.73-0.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0775.0069.010.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0783.3369.110.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0766.6754.980.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0750.0063.970.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0040.20-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0775.0055.000.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0733.3337.71-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0750.0070.920.000.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.070.0051.90-0.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0760.0050.240.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.07100.0069.490.000.03
DuquesneA100.000.07100.0053.990.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0775.0066.060.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0725.0036.14-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.070.0027.48-0.00-0.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0780.0067.950.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0766.6751.440.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0766.6725.500.00-0.03
DukeACC0.000.07100.0083.320.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0780.0063.370.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0775.0044.850.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6762.480.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0733.3360.46-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0750.0050.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0740.0038.51-0.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.07100.0065.930.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.07100.0071.260.000.03
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0063.120.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0750.0065.590.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3354.85-0.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0056.410.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0760.0055.660.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0725.0026.73-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0725.0023.91-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0775.0061.130.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0783.3338.760.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0783.3368.400.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0775.0055.470.000.01
St. Francis PANEC2.080.0725.0045.71-1.04-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0720.0037.96-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.070.0044.93-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0680.0074.350.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0650.0024.450.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0052.070.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0480.0075.550.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0433.3348.21-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0466.6746.480.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0425.0053.73-0.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0475.0056.110.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.040.0030.50-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0460.0066.680.000.01
BaylorB120.000.04100.0075.130.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0425.0053.47-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0440.0053.54-0.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0442.8641.73-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0052.530.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0460.0056.890.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0450.0051.380.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0480.0046.880.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0420.0037.69-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0450.0059.430.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0475.0045.180.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.04100.0053.730.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.04100.0057.930.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0028.400.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0079.690.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0035.96-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0019.53-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0371.4356.020.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0380.0079.440.000.02
PennIvy0.000.030.0023.53-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6756.430.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.03-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3337.74-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd1.670.030.0022.17-1.67-0.02
Chicago St.WAC1.670.030.0018.96-1.67-0.02
DavidsonA101.670.0366.6764.030.560.01
ElonCAA0.000.0340.0039.26-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0038.97-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0068.290.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0320.0029.36-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0325.0049.08-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6750.170.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0320.0034.53-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0053.040.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.02
OklahomaB121.670.0380.0070.541.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0340.0043.47-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC1.670.0333.3347.83-0.56-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0383.3384.390.000.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.0360.0068.620.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0058.380.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3352.29-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0350.0032.470.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3366.19-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0023.83-0.00-0.02
UCLAP121.670.0366.6758.390.560.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.76-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.160.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0052.42-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0380.0072.400.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0042.050.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0055.020.000.00
NavyPat0.000.0320.0030.56-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0316.6726.26-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6751.730.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02