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Through games of Jan 17, 2017.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:195.5
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:336
Current Record:9-6
Expected Record:20-7
Current Conf Record:3-1
Expected Conf Record:14-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:294



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-6174.622.88%
20-7189.836.63%
19-8205.526.16%
18-9221.411.04%
17-10237.32.73%
16-11251.00.50%
15-12274.20.04%
14-13296.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Marshall (93.7)CUSAA81-69L0%0.0
11-14Ohio St. (72.4)B10A69-63L0%0.0
11-16Western Carolina (274.4)SCA59-67W100%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (291.7)SWACH84-75W100%0.0
11-26Northern Kentucky (150.8)HorzA74-82W100%0.0
11-28Missouri (252.6)SECA52-62W100%0.0
12-3East Carolina (235.9)AmerA69-56L0%0.0
12-6LIU Brooklyn (225.8)NECH79-56W100%0.0
12-10Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA70-67L0%0.0
12-13LSU (149.0)SECA70-66L0%0.0
12-17McNeese St. (270.9)SlndA66-74W100%0.0
1-10Delaware St. (322.4)MEACH68-69L0%0.0
1-11Maryland Eastern Shore (305.0)MEACH69-52W100%0.0
1-14Norfolk St. (310.3)MEACA57-72W100%0.0
1-16Hampton (308.1)MEACA51-64W100%0.0
1-23Howard (324.7)MEACH0-092%15.5
1-28North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACH0-096%19.3
1-30Delaware St. (322.4)MEACA0-085%11.4
2-4Morgan St. (316.8)MEACA0-079%8.9
2-6Coppin St. (328.2)MEACA0-090%14.6
2-11South Carolina St. (301.8)MEACH0-093%16.6
2-13Florida A&M (348.3)MEACH0-097%21.0
2-18Maryland Eastern Shore (305.0)MEACA0-074%7.3
2-20Howard (324.7)MEACA0-080%9.2
2-25Bethune Cookman (346.5)MEACH0-096%19.0
2-27Savannah St. (325.1)MEACH0-095%18.0
3-2North Carolina A&T (348.7)MEACA0-088%13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.5326.1369.8678.9610.5415.13
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.404.390.0014.87-0.40-3.08
HowardMEAC0.104.3312.5029.56-0.08-1.77
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.334.3313.3335.40-2.44-1.26
Delaware St.MEAC3.554.3012.5027.49-2.66-1.94
Florida A&MMEAC0.092.5712.5020.62-0.07-1.51
Coppin St.MEAC0.102.5222.2226.11-0.06-1.20
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.002.5112.5025.14-0.00-1.25
Morgan St.MEAC0.102.5137.5045.46-0.03-0.23
Savannah St.MEAC0.222.4925.0032.96-0.11-0.85
Norfolk St.MEAC3.532.4820.0037.14-2.12-0.64
HamptonMEAC3.522.4828.5741.72-1.51-0.41
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.4114.2930.31-0.00-0.95
East CarolinaAmer3.441.9944.4439.55-0.38-0.42
Ohio St.B103.631.9558.8255.070.640.20
MarshallCUSA3.631.9552.9458.620.210.34
Western CarolinaSC3.621.9520.0021.29-2.17-1.12
Jackson St.SWAC3.621.9433.3346.97-1.21-0.12
Northern KentuckyHorz3.441.8962.5059.880.860.37
Coastal CarolinaSB3.331.8840.0041.59-0.67-0.32
LSUSEC3.441.8853.3337.270.23-0.48
MissouriSEC3.441.8833.3327.45-1.15-0.85
LIU BrooklynNEC3.331.8564.7161.240.980.42
McNeese St.Slnd3.331.8525.0032.35-1.67-0.65
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.1925.0029.58-0.04-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1756.2553.390.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.340.1752.9455.270.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.310.1650.0066.230.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1652.9450.980.010.00
SMUAmer0.310.1678.9576.610.180.08
MichiganB100.100.1663.1658.050.030.03
UCFAmer0.190.1677.7866.990.110.05
Old DominionCUSA0.200.1661.1162.130.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1647.3745.13-0.01-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.210.1662.5057.030.050.02
AuburnSEC0.210.1664.7154.900.060.02
MemphisAmer0.230.1372.2264.100.100.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1362.5060.130.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.210.1378.9582.970.120.09
Appalachian St.SB0.320.1328.5731.55-0.14-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.230.1362.5062.570.060.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1329.4134.19-0.00-0.04
SamfordSC0.100.1364.7159.940.030.03
IowaB100.100.1357.8951.110.020.00
St. John'sBE0.190.1345.0038.58-0.02-0.03
AmericanPat0.100.1323.5329.83-0.06-0.05
George WashingtonA100.100.1350.0047.550.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.200.1362.5058.780.050.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1368.7563.220.040.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.1335.2928.89-0.03-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.210.1370.5958.350.090.02
AkronMAC0.200.1382.3575.750.130.07
ChattanoogaSC0.300.1375.0074.750.150.06
WoffordSC0.210.1326.6739.94-0.10-0.03
TulaneAmer0.230.1323.5320.64-0.12-0.07
College of CharlestonCAA0.400.1277.7870.840.220.05
HoustonAmer0.190.1272.2271.190.090.05
MarylandB100.000.1288.2471.860.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.100.1277.7870.240.060.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.230.1025.0033.65-0.12-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.1050.0054.870.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1037.5051.02-0.030.00
PurdueB100.320.1078.9576.880.190.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1043.7550.72-0.010.00
RiderMAAC0.110.1057.8953.010.020.01
Texas St.SB0.230.1053.3345.900.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1081.2572.840.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1075.0076.830.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.1031.5839.38-0.08-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.1025.0027.36-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.106.2511.84-0.18-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1027.7834.21-0.04-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1042.1142.60-0.02-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.1016.6721.64-0.06-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.210.1044.4442.66-0.02-0.01
DelawareCAA0.200.1029.4127.58-0.08-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.1052.6348.200.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.100.1066.6761.460.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1077.7877.180.000.05
WagnerNEC0.000.0940.0049.62-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.210.0920.0019.56-0.12-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0962.5068.380.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.0926.6732.18-0.05-0.03
RiceCUSA0.100.0962.5066.040.020.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.0918.7523.94-0.07-0.05
VCUA100.100.0977.7873.850.060.05
WisconsinB100.090.0983.3381.270.060.06
IndianaB100.100.0966.6763.790.030.03
MercerSC0.090.0935.2944.11-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.300.0964.7170.660.090.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.0933.3330.24-0.06-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0936.8448.43-0.02-0.00
IllinoisB100.290.0961.1153.510.070.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0961.1155.110.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.180.0943.7543.54-0.02-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0937.5045.42-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.190.0978.9570.200.110.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0937.5043.18-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.0730.7743.73-0.05-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0750.0049.630.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0746.1551.20-0.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.0760.0061.060.030.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0746.1553.09-0.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.110.0742.8647.01-0.02-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0764.7160.770.000.01
Miami FLACC0.100.0775.0063.130.050.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0735.7136.20-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0735.2935.32-0.03-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0723.0830.99-0.05-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0718.7528.13-0.07-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0721.4336.57-0.06-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0717.6524.66-0.00-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0711.1123.08-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0717.6535.23-0.07-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.0733.3333.25-0.07-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.200.0726.3227.81-0.09-0.03
High PointBSth0.100.0633.3340.05-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0643.7537.62-0.01-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0664.7165.910.030.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.0637.5038.14-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0650.0034.710.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.100.0668.4268.140.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.100.0656.2553.600.010.00
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0646.1546.03-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.100.0617.6524.31-0.06-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0653.3355.950.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0664.7147.100.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.100.0656.2554.680.010.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0658.3361.490.000.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0640.0044.11-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0652.9451.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0635.2942.44-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5653.980.000.01
Little RockSB0.100.0656.2551.270.010.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0625.0028.48-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0661.1159.260.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0622.2227.20-0.05-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.100.0629.4138.85-0.04-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5060.110.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0688.8977.880.000.04
OaklandHorz0.100.0670.5972.950.040.03
PacificWCC0.000.0638.8934.93-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0627.7824.41-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0635.2930.56-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0668.7570.380.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.0676.4762.130.060.02
VMISC0.100.0614.2915.94-0.07-0.04
West VirginiaB120.200.0688.2484.620.150.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0658.8254.920.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0661.1150.520.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0655.5643.040.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.0643.7548.39-0.03-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.200.0637.5034.43-0.05-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.190.0631.2539.90-0.07-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.210.0658.8252.990.040.00
BryantNEC0.090.0622.2235.39-0.05-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0611.7616.64-0.07-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0682.3577.050.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0664.7158.480.030.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0688.8987.430.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0682.3582.810.060.04
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0631.2542.02-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0647.0648.43-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.090.0658.8263.680.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.180.0688.2486.400.140.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.0621.4327.22-0.11-0.03
Michigan St.B100.090.0663.1657.650.020.01
NebraskaB100.000.0650.0043.400.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.090.0652.6353.230.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0656.2551.290.000.00
VirginiaACC0.180.0681.2576.190.110.03
Holy CrossPat0.000.0447.3748.91-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0473.6874.110.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0488.2487.500.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0457.8952.820.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0430.7736.84-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0422.2230.92-0.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.110.0476.4759.460.060.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0468.4252.460.050.00
PrincetonIvy0.110.0460.0066.160.020.01
RichmondA100.110.0464.7158.500.030.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.0435.7148.97-0.04-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.110.0452.9453.520.010.00
WinthropBSth0.110.0473.3373.820.050.02
BucknellPat0.100.0368.4271.120.040.01
ButlerBE0.100.0384.2178.350.070.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0344.4443.48-0.01-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0364.7161.950.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0364.7161.540.030.01
OregonP120.000.0388.2482.680.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0317.6514.96-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0358.8264.270.000.01
BaylorB120.100.0394.1280.670.090.02
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0046.09-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0346.6745.23-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.100.0325.0025.30-0.05-0.02
DuquesneA100.100.0350.0042.010.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0047.940.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0336.8436.59-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0388.2484.470.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0347.0640.40-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0355.5655.700.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0350.0052.280.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.100.0323.5328.53-0.05-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0364.7156.190.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0337.5045.11-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0356.2559.190.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0361.1163.000.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0344.4445.45-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0343.7541.38-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.0327.7834.92-0.04-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0312.5019.01-0.08-0.02
TroySB0.000.0347.0648.08-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0366.6764.760.000.01
ArizonaP120.100.0388.8983.150.080.02
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0352.9457.220.010.00
DartmouthIvy0.090.0321.4323.15-0.05-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.0356.2555.630.010.00
FIUCUSA0.090.0312.5021.92-0.07-0.02
HartfordAE0.090.0331.5829.33-0.03-0.01
LipscombASun0.100.0341.1847.63-0.02-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.090.0350.0047.030.00-0.00
MaineAE0.090.0321.0521.89-0.05-0.02
North FloridaASun0.100.0318.7530.24-0.07-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.090.0366.6763.280.030.01
OhioMAC0.090.0366.6767.310.030.01
PittsburghACC0.090.0363.1651.670.020.00
Texas TechB120.000.0376.4763.780.000.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0352.9452.830.010.00
UMass LowellAE0.090.0342.1140.69-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0343.7538.33-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.100.0372.2267.530.050.01
NavyPat0.090.0341.1843.66-0.02-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0378.9569.140.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0313.3314.77-0.06-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0365.0055.340.030.00
UCLAP120.090.0394.7489.340.080.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0388.2484.340.070.02