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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:155.0
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:307
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:15-2
Expected Conf Record:15-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-2
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:171
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9155.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wichita St. (37.0)MVCA71-57L0%0.0
11-14Wyoming (75.0)MWCA73-60L0%0.0
11-15Southern (180.0)SWACN59-55W100%0.0
11-16South Dakota (240.0)SumN81-69L0%0.0
11-24Wagner (126.0)NECH36-38L0%0.0
11-27Utah Valley (297.0)GWCH70-52W100%0.0
12-1North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACA62-66W100%0.0
12-4Eastern Kentucky (70.0)OVCH57-63L0%0.0
12-19Drake (143.0)MVCA72-69L0%0.0
12-22Utah Valley (297.0)GWCA67-73W100%0.0
12-29Marquette (13.0)BEA75-66L0%0.0
1-2Winthrop (269.0)BSthA57-64W100%0.0
1-12Florida A&M (331.0)MEACA62-85W100%0.0
1-14Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACA66-75W100%0.0
1-21Howard (334.0)MEACH71-36W100%0.0
1-26Coppin St. (313.0)MEACH84-75W100%0.0
1-28Morgan St. (236.0)MEACH69-61W100%0.0
2-2Delaware St. (263.0)MEACA43-54W100%0.0
2-4Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)MEACA54-82W100%0.0
2-9Florida A&M (331.0)MEACH51-43W100%0.0
2-11Bethune Cookman (277.0)MEACH81-75W100%0.0
2-16Savannah St. (166.0)MEACA44-36L0%0.0
2-18South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACA52-71W100%0.0
2-23North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH51-47W100%0.0
3-2Savannah St. (166.0)MEACH51-47W100%0.0
3-4South Carolina St. (342.0)MEACH62-54W100%0.0
3-7Hampton (287.0)MEACA64-68W100%0.0
3-13North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACN42-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.2826.2870.9070.9010.9810.98
North Carolina A&TMEAC6.196.1954.8454.840.600.60
Savannah St.MEAC4.334.3355.1755.170.450.45
Florida A&MMEAC4.314.3122.2222.22-2.39-2.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.304.3040.0040.00-0.86-0.86
South Carolina St.MEAC4.254.2515.3815.38-2.94-2.94
Utah ValleyGWC3.653.6538.4638.46-0.84-0.84
Morgan St.MEAC2.572.5754.8454.840.250.25
Delaware St.MEAC2.512.5143.3343.33-0.33-0.33
HowardMEAC2.422.4221.4321.43-1.38-1.38
Coppin St.MEAC2.392.3923.3323.33-1.28-1.28
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.362.367.417.41-2.01-2.01
HamptonMEAC2.352.3546.6746.67-0.16-0.16
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.891.8970.0070.000.760.76
Wichita St.MVC1.871.8775.7675.760.970.97
WyomingMWC1.851.8555.1755.170.190.19
SouthernSWAC1.851.8571.4371.430.790.79
South DakotaSum1.851.8525.9325.93-0.89-0.89
MarquetteBE1.841.8473.3373.330.860.86
WagnerNEC1.841.8460.0060.000.370.37
DrakeMVC1.841.8443.3343.33-0.25-0.25
WinthropBSth1.811.8140.7440.74-0.34-0.34
Norfolk St.MEAC0.730.7365.6265.620.230.23
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.330.3348.0048.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.270.2738.4638.46-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistGWC0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Illinois St.MVC0.220.2254.5554.550.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.210.2171.4371.430.090.09
Central FloridaCUSA0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
RadfordBSth0.200.2034.4834.48-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
North FloridaASun0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
PittsburghBE0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
CampbellBSth0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
CreightonMVC0.170.1779.4179.410.100.10
AlbanyAE0.160.1670.5970.590.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiBE0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
BradleyMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.140.1457.6957.690.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.130.1313.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1317.2417.24-0.08-0.08
MarylandACC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.120.1257.1457.140.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
NevadaMWC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Florida InternationalSB0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
StetsonASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.090.0919.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
OhioMAC0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
South FloridaBE0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
High PointBSth0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Long IslandNEC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
NC GreensboroSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OaklandSum0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Utah St.WAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Washington St.P120.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
GramblingSWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
HoustonCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ConnecticutBE0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern MethodistCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Virginia CommonwealthA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
BryantNEC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
ColgatePat0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeSB0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
MonmouthNEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Notre DameBE0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
SyracuseBE0.060.0674.2974.290.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
New Orleansind0.060.0618.1818.18-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.7593.750.030.03
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Boston UniversityAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas ChristianB120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverWAC0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
XavierA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCAA0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Texas San AntonioWAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00