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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:310.0
Current RPI:310
Expected SOS:340
Current SOS:340
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-11
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:294
Expected OOC SOS:195



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19310.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Clemson (131.0)ACCA74-40L0%0.0
11-22LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA78-77L0%0.0
11-24Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA69-59L0%0.0
11-27Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA71-50L0%0.0
12-3Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH86-79W100%0.0
12-5Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACH70-59W100%0.0
12-7Howard (328.0)MEACH69-71L0%0.0
12-14Marshall (128.0)CUSAA92-73L0%0.0
12-16Houston (87.0)AmerA73-65L0%0.0
12-21Southern (186.0)SWACN63-68L0%0.0
12-22Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCN57-52W100%0.0
12-31Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA71-48L0%0.0
1-4East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH68-72L0%0.0
1-9South Carolina St. (203.0)MEACA91-75L0%0.0
1-11Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA46-69W100%0.0
1-16Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACH79-88L0%0.0
1-18Hampton (155.0)MEACH79-80L0%0.0
1-27Delaware St. (345.0)MEACA71-60L0%0.0
2-1Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA63-81W100%0.0
2-6North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACH63-67L0%0.0
2-13Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH90-66W100%0.0
2-15Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH79-74W100%0.0
2-18Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA71-60L0%0.0
2-20Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA59-73W100%0.0
2-27Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA69-61L0%0.0
2-29Savannah St. (277.0)MEACH61-44W100%0.0
3-3North Carolina A&T (340.0)MEACA93-87L0%0.0
3-8Howard (328.0)MEACN68-66W100%0.0
3-9Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACA66-47L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.1826.1836.8036.80-6.91-6.91
Savannah St.MEAC4.174.1751.8551.850.150.15
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.124.1227.5927.59-1.85-1.85
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.124.1239.2939.29-0.88-0.88
Florida A&MMEAC4.114.1124.0024.00-2.14-2.14
Norfolk St.MEAC4.094.0944.8344.83-0.42-0.42
HowardMEAC4.054.0532.1432.14-1.45-1.45
South Carolina St.MEAC2.502.5053.3353.330.170.17
HamptonMEAC2.502.5065.5265.520.780.78
Coppin St.MEAC2.472.4721.4321.43-1.41-1.41
Morgan St.MEAC2.412.4127.5927.59-1.08-1.08
Delaware St.MEAC2.392.3913.7913.79-1.73-1.73
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.392.3930.0030.00-0.96-0.96
SouthernSWAC1.831.8360.0060.000.370.37
HoustonAmer1.821.8270.0070.000.730.73
MarshallCUSA1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.781.7823.5323.53-0.94-0.94
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.781.7840.7440.74-0.33-0.33
Louisiana TechCUSA1.781.7868.9768.970.670.67
Mississippi St.SEC1.751.7543.3343.33-0.23-0.23
ClemsonACC1.721.7253.3353.330.110.11
East Tennessee St.SC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
LIU BrooklynNEC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Old DominionCUSA0.250.2562.8662.860.060.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.250.2553.1253.120.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.2279.3179.310.130.13
Grambling St.SWAC0.210.2114.2914.29-0.15-0.15
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
TulaneAmer0.140.1435.2935.29-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.120.1224.2424.24-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MassachusettsA100.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
The CitadelSC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.100.1035.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
RutgersB100.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
UMBCAE0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MercerSC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
BrownIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00