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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:199.0
Current RPI:199
Expected SOS:350
Current SOS:350
Current Record:22-8
Expected Record:22-8
Current Conf Record:16-3
Expected Conf Record:16-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:21-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:300



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-8199.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Marshall (112.0)CUSAA81-69L0%0.0
11-14Ohio St. (90.0)B10A69-63L0%0.0
11-16Western Carolina (271.0)SCA59-67W100%0.0
11-18Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH84-75W100%0.0
11-26Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA74-82W100%0.0
11-28Missouri (257.0)SECA52-62W100%0.0
12-3East Carolina (213.0)AmerA69-56L0%0.0
12-6LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH79-56W100%0.0
12-10Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA70-67L0%0.0
12-13LSU (193.0)SECA70-66L0%0.0
12-17McNeese St. (315.0)SlndA66-74W100%0.0
1-10Delaware St. (332.0)MEACH68-69L0%0.0
1-11Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH69-52W100%0.0
1-14Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA57-72W100%0.0
1-16Hampton (283.0)MEACA51-64W100%0.0
1-23Howard (337.0)MEACH74-39W100%0.0
1-28North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACH82-59W100%0.0
1-30Delaware St. (332.0)MEACA74-82W100%0.0
2-4Morgan St. (326.0)MEACA62-68W100%0.0
2-6Coppin St. (336.0)MEACA77-86W100%0.0
2-11South Carolina St. (299.0)MEACH85-62W100%0.0
2-13Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH78-73W100%0.0
2-18Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACA69-82W100%0.0
2-20Howard (337.0)MEACA59-66W100%0.0
2-25Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH78-63W100%0.0
2-27Savannah St. (279.0)MEACH73-74L0%0.0
3-2North Carolina A&T (350.0)MEACA68-63L0%0.0
3-8Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACN95-60W100%0.0
3-10Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACN79-49W100%0.0
3-11Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACA59-67W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.2526.2578.6778.6715.0515.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.705.7041.3841.38-0.98-0.98
North Carolina A&TMEAC4.094.090.000.00-4.09-4.09
HowardMEAC4.084.0826.6726.67-1.90-1.90
Norfolk St.MEAC4.064.0651.7251.720.140.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC4.054.0528.5728.57-1.74-1.74
Delaware St.MEAC3.973.9725.0025.00-1.99-1.99
Florida A&MMEAC2.412.4118.5218.52-1.52-1.52
HamptonMEAC2.412.4144.4444.44-0.27-0.27
South Carolina St.MEAC2.392.3932.1432.14-0.85-0.85
Coppin St.MEAC2.392.3924.1424.14-1.23-1.23
Morgan St.MEAC2.362.3646.4346.43-0.17-0.17
Savannah St.MEAC2.302.3038.4638.46-0.53-0.53
East CarolinaAmer1.781.7843.7543.75-0.22-0.22
MarshallCUSA1.751.7554.5554.550.160.16
Ohio St.B101.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Western CarolinaSC1.751.7524.1424.14-0.90-0.90
Jackson St.SWAC1.741.7442.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Northern KentuckyHorz1.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
Coastal CarolinaSB1.691.6943.3343.33-0.23-0.23
MissouriSEC1.691.6925.8125.81-0.82-0.82
LSUSEC1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
LIU BrooklynNEC1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
McNeese St.Slnd1.671.6720.0020.00-1.00-1.00
UCFAmer0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.160.1688.2488.240.120.12
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
MichiganB100.160.1668.5768.570.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
St. John'sBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Texas A&MSEC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
UMBCAE0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
AmericanPat0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
George WashingtonA100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
IowaB100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Sacred HeartNEC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0810.0010.00-0.07-0.07
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
RutgersB100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0787.8887.880.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
FIUCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
PittsburghACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01