The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated North Carolina Central page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Feb 7, 2010.

North Carolina Central

Conference:		ind
Expected RPI:		345.5
Current RPI:		347
Expected SOS:		333
Current SOS:		321
Current Record:		1-20
Expected Record:		3-23
Current Conf Record:		1-1
Expected Conf Record:		2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:		0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:		0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:		0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:		0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:		2-16
Current OOC Record:		0-19
Expected OOC Record:		1-20
Expected OOC RPI:		345
Expected OOC SOS:		313

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-20	334.3	0.03%
5-21	339.1	2.12%
4-22	342.6	13.85%
3-23	345.1	33.62%
2-24	346.6	36.83%
1-25	347.0	13.54%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	North Carolina (83.6)	ACC	A	42-89	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Miami FL (90.7)	ACC	A	53-83	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Florida International (286.4)	SB	A	73-83	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Murray St. (68.0)	OVC	N	61-84	L	0%	0.0
11-23	James Madison (244.2)	CAA	N	66-79	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Iowa (199.8)	B10	A	63-73	L	0%	0.0
12-2	Air Force (235.8)	MWC	A	49-61	L	0%	0.0
12-16	Florida Gulf Coast (311.3)	ASun	H	67-76	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Indiana (206.6)	B10	A	58-81	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Ball St. (210.1)	MAC	A	45-59	L	0%	0.0
12-29	High Point (269.4)	BSth	A	58-70	L	0%	0.0
1-3	East Carolina (243.1)	CUSA	A	58-68	L	0%	0.0
1-6	Colgate (306.0)	Pat	A	54-75	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Southern Methodist (197.3)	CUSA	A	50-78	L	0%	0.0
1-11	High Point (269.4)	BSth	H	55-58	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Virginia Tech (62.2)	ACC	A	30-72	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Savannah St. (321.8)	ind	A	44-46	L	0%	0.0
1-27	Youngstown St. (257.4)	Horz	A	57-70	L	0%	0.0
1-30	North Carolina St. (110.7)	ACC	A	42-77	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Western Illinois (307.7)	Sum	H	50-53	L	0%	0.0
2-6	Savannah St. (321.8)	ind	H	65-60	W	100%	0.0
2-10	Maryland Eastern Shore (313.8)	MEAC	H	0-0		57%	1.9
2-13	Longwood (286.8)	ind	H	0-0		42%	-2.3
2-15	Coastal Carolina (129.1)	BSth	H	0-0		7%	-16.2
2-25	Longwood (286.8)	ind	A	0-0		17%	-10.3
3-13	Winston Salem St. (314.2)	ind	A	0-0		31%	-5.3

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sorted by , Current Weight, End-Of-Season Weight, Current Help Index, Expected Help Index, and then Alphabetically.

Weights are percentages.

North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina Central.

Help Ind is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

BY CURRENT WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
North Carolina Central	ind	26.38	26.13	3.80	9.23	-24.38	-21.31
Savannah St.	ind	4.88	4.10	27.78	29.31	-2.17	-1.70
High Point	BSth	4.82	4.02	36.84	39.92	-1.27	-0.81
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.64	2.22	80.95	71.63	1.64	0.96
Western Illinois	Sum	2.62	2.10	26.32	29.06	-1.24	-0.88
North Carolina	ACC	2.59	2.11	54.55	50.36	0.24	0.02
Florida International	SB	2.59	2.05	20.83	21.11	-1.51	-1.19
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.54	2.09	26.09	26.31	-1.22	-0.99
Miami FL	ACC	2.54	2.08	66.67	61.40	0.85	0.47
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.49	1.99	25.00	24.94	-1.25	-1.00
Iowa	B10	2.49	2.02	30.43	28.52	-0.97	-0.87
James Madison	CAA	2.48	2.06	40.91	37.91	-0.45	-0.50
Murray St.	OVC	2.48	1.99	86.36	84.96	1.80	1.39
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.43	2.08	56.52	52.79	0.32	0.12
Indiana	B10	2.43	1.99	38.10	32.59	-0.58	-0.69
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.43	1.99	42.11	41.88	-0.38	-0.32
Air Force	MWC	2.38	1.92	31.58	27.92	-0.88	-0.85
Ball St.	MAC	2.38	1.96	50.00	49.84	0.00	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	2.38	1.99	23.81	28.52	-1.25	-0.86
East Carolina	CUSA	2.38	1.96	15.79	18.94	-1.63	-1.22
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.41	0.30	39.13	41.19	-0.09	-0.05
Longwood	ind	0.39	4.22	23.81	26.11	-0.20	-2.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.38	0.37	76.19	71.14	0.20	0.15
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.33	0.31	52.94	56.30	0.02	0.04
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.33	0.28	20.00	23.58	-0.20	-0.15
Marshall	CUSA	0.28	0.21	66.67	65.54	0.09	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.28	0.25	52.38	56.23	0.01	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.27	0.18	47.62	45.68	-0.01	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.27	0.27	14.29	15.65	-0.19	-0.19
Virginia	ACC	0.26	0.29	66.67	57.29	0.09	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.26	0.19	75.00	73.72	0.13	0.09
Texas Christian	MWC	0.23	0.14	40.91	38.27	-0.04	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.23	2.15	80.95	81.65	0.14	1.36
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.23	0.28	40.00	40.09	-0.05	-0.06
NC Asheville	BSth	0.23	0.21	33.33	37.71	-0.08	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.21	0.16	69.57	66.88	0.08	0.05
Campbell	ASun	0.21	0.21	57.14	58.76	0.03	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.21	0.30	71.43	67.85	0.09	0.11
Illinois	B10	0.21	0.13	66.67	59.01	0.07	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.21	0.19	73.91	69.49	0.10	0.08
Michigan St.	B10	0.20	0.16	79.17	76.61	0.12	0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.17	0.14	31.82	29.58	-0.06	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.17	0.12	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.17	0.15	56.52	59.89	0.02	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.15	43.48	45.31	-0.02	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.17	0.10	57.14	59.04	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.25	21.05	22.43	-0.10	-0.14
Presbyterian	BSth	0.17	0.24	12.50	15.31	-0.12	-0.17
Valparaiso	Horz	0.17	0.14	40.91	43.37	-0.03	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.10	21.74	24.84	-0.09	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.10	47.62	49.08	-0.01	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.10	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.16	0.24	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.19	52.17	48.76	0.01	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	86.36	81.80	0.12	0.10
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.16	0.10	8.70	9.54	-0.13	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.10	47.06	53.78	-0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.16	0.13	45.45	44.00	-0.01	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.10	34.78	32.23	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.13	18.18	21.04	-0.10	-0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.10	62.50	57.74	0.04	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.10	52.17	55.04	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.15	0.10	20.00	24.04	-0.09	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.15	0.10	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.07	21.05	24.96	-0.07	-0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.11	47.62	44.47	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.09	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.09	77.27	73.36	0.06	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.07	42.86	45.31	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.07	65.22	67.00	0.04	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.10	69.57	69.99	0.05	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.09	73.91	70.60	0.06	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.11	81.82	80.91	0.08	0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.07	66.67	69.41	0.04	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.14	31.82	30.34	-0.04	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.09	33.33	33.43	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.11	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.11	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.09	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.14	77.27	75.69	0.06	0.07
Texas St.	Slnd	0.12	0.07	36.84	36.82	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.07	82.61	78.56	0.08	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.11	35.00	33.21	-0.03	-0.04
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.91	0.08	0.07
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.07	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	22.73	22.57	-0.06	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.21	42.86	41.51	-0.02	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	52.38	49.31	0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.07	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.10	66.67	65.62	0.04	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.07	66.67	68.11	0.04	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.07	73.91	70.80	0.05	0.03
Temple	A10	0.11	0.07	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.07	91.30	88.21	0.09	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.13	47.62	46.79	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.10	45.45	44.03	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.14	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.11	0.07	69.57	66.00	0.04	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.06	26.09	26.91	-0.05	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.06	95.65	88.67	0.10	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.11	0.06	8.70	11.46	-0.09	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.11	0.07	30.43	32.32	-0.04	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.07	47.83	42.90	-0.00	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.07	95.83	91.37	0.10	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.28	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.09	31.05	-0.05	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.16	69.57	67.93	0.04	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	5.00	8.59	-0.09	-0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.14	68.18	66.65	0.04	0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	38.45	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.20	72.73	68.13	0.05	0.07
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	82.61	78.76	0.07	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.22	64.71	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	54.17	55.99	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.07	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.07	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	SB	0.10	0.06	22.73	22.86	-0.05	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.06	61.90	63.69	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P10	0.06	0.04	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.01
Brigham Young	MWC	0.06	0.07	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.05
Centenary	Sum	0.06	0.07	27.27	27.20	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.07	78.26	71.72	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.11	59.09	52.85	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.04	54.55	55.07	0.01	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.10	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.03	22.73	24.05	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.04	81.82	79.60	0.04	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.07	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.07	87.50	83.52	0.04	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.04	52.00	51.84	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.04	45.00	45.40	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.04	79.17	78.03	0.03	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.07	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	62.18	0.02	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.07	19.05	20.55	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.04	81.82	75.66	0.04	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	72.73	66.85	0.03	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.04	12.00	18.82	-0.05	-0.02
Utah	MWC	0.06	0.07	45.45	44.32	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.10	77.27	77.12	0.03	0.05
Washington St.	P10	0.06	0.04	63.64	58.79	0.02	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	55.00	52.00	0.01	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.91	0.03	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.07	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.07	69.57	70.29	0.02	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	1.99	27.27	28.92	-0.03	-0.84
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.03	43.48	47.68	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.10	36.36	37.37	-0.02	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.96	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.04	66.67	64.02	0.02	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.04	30.43	30.27	-0.02	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.04	58.33	58.93	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.07	8.70	10.09	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	54.55	56.62	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.10	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.06	0.04	69.57	71.43	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.10	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.03	54.17	57.70	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	23.81	27.31	-0.03	-0.01
Bryant	ind	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.18	-0.05	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.07	37.50	39.23	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	56.49	0.01	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	15.79	17.64	-0.04	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.03	47.62	45.44	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.13	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.07	60.87	59.16	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.14	65.22	65.74	0.02	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.56	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	63.64	61.86	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	73.91	72.52	0.03	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.17	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.23	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.14	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	23.53	26.10	-0.03	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	27.27	25.31	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.47	0.01	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.10	59.09	54.41	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.78	-0.01	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.07	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.12	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.03	23.08	25.77	-0.03	-0.02
California	P10	0.05	0.03	65.22	68.42	0.02	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.10	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.91	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	9.52	8.87	-0.04	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	45.83	47.77	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.07	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.03	82.61	75.26	0.03	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.07	68.18	67.88	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.03	57.14	60.54	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.14	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.14	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.06
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.07	27.27	25.82	-0.02	-0.03
Stanford	P10	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.10	-0.01	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	22.73	23.47	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona	P10	0.05	0.03	52.17	53.65	0.00	0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.07	60.00	63.83	0.01	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.89	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	44.00	43.20	-0.01	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.19	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.13
Elon	SC	0.05	0.07	19.05	23.26	-0.03	-0.04
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	73.91	67.72	0.02	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.10	17.39	20.11	-0.03	-0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.47	0.01	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.07	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	66.09	0.02	0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.32	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	79.17	77.30	0.03	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	23.81	28.38	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	57.14	57.10	0.01	0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.58	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.17	19.05	22.94	-0.03	-0.09
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.61	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	36.18	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.06	52.17	54.94	0.00	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	41.67	42.69	-0.01	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	70.59	72.98	0.02	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.06	47.83	47.55	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.06	47.62	50.38	-0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.07	22.73	21.40	-0.00	-0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.00	0.04	39.13	43.30	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.00	0.03	44.00	45.15	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.07	40.00	39.13	-0.00	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.14	11.11	20.93	-0.00	-0.08
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.10	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.00	0.07	33.33	33.00	-0.00	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.14	31.82	42.24	-0.00	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.17	70.83	73.80	0.00	0.08
Nebraska	B12	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.42	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.00	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.00	0.03	59.09	51.13	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P10	0.00	0.04	54.55	48.81	0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.07	75.00	71.23	0.00	0.03
South Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.07	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	68.42	67.04	0.00	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.04	33.33	36.45	-0.00	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.00	1.96	29.41	28.08	-0.00	-0.86
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.10	78.26	78.92	0.00	0.06

BY END-OF-SEASON WEIGHT: (top)

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Help	Exp Help
North Carolina Central	ind	26.38	26.13	3.80	9.23	-24.38	-21.31
Longwood	ind	0.39	4.22	23.81	26.11	-0.20	-2.02
Savannah St.	ind	4.88	4.10	27.78	29.31	-2.17	-1.70
High Point	BSth	4.82	4.02	36.84	39.92	-1.27	-0.81
Virginia Tech	ACC	2.64	2.22	80.95	71.63	1.64	0.96
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.23	2.15	80.95	81.65	0.14	1.36
North Carolina	ACC	2.59	2.11	54.55	50.36	0.24	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	2.62	2.10	26.32	29.06	-1.24	-0.88
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.54	2.09	26.09	26.31	-1.22	-0.99
Miami FL	ACC	2.54	2.08	66.67	61.40	0.85	0.47
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.43	2.08	56.52	52.79	0.32	0.12
James Madison	CAA	2.48	2.06	40.91	37.91	-0.45	-0.50
Florida International	SB	2.59	2.05	20.83	21.11	-1.51	-1.19
Iowa	B10	2.49	2.02	30.43	28.52	-0.97	-0.87
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	1.99	27.27	28.92	-0.03	-0.84
Colgate	Pat	2.38	1.99	23.81	28.52	-1.25	-0.86
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.49	1.99	25.00	24.94	-1.25	-1.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.43	1.99	42.11	41.88	-0.38	-0.32
Murray St.	OVC	2.48	1.99	86.36	84.96	1.80	1.39
Indiana	B10	2.43	1.99	38.10	32.59	-0.58	-0.69
East Carolina	CUSA	2.38	1.96	15.79	18.94	-1.63	-1.22
Ball St.	MAC	2.38	1.96	50.00	49.84	0.00	-0.01
Winston Salem St.	ind	0.00	1.96	29.41	28.08	-0.00	-0.86
Air Force	MWC	2.38	1.92	31.58	27.92	-0.88	-0.85
Wake Forest	ACC	0.38	0.37	76.19	71.14	0.20	0.15
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.33	0.31	52.94	56.30	0.02	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.21	0.30	71.43	67.85	0.09	0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.41	0.30	39.13	41.19	-0.09	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.26	0.29	66.67	57.29	0.09	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.23	0.28	40.00	40.09	-0.05	-0.06
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.33	0.28	20.00	23.58	-0.20	-0.15
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.28	55.00	53.61	0.01	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.27	0.27	14.29	15.65	-0.19	-0.19
Radford	BSth	0.28	0.25	52.38	56.23	0.01	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.17	0.25	21.05	22.43	-0.10	-0.14
Presbyterian	BSth	0.17	0.24	12.50	15.31	-0.12	-0.17
Winthrop	BSth	0.16	0.24	52.38	54.80	0.01	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.11	0.21	42.86	41.51	-0.02	-0.04
NC Asheville	BSth	0.23	0.21	33.33	37.71	-0.08	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.28	0.21	66.67	65.54	0.09	0.06
Campbell	ASun	0.21	0.21	57.14	58.76	0.03	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.20	72.73	68.13	0.05	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.19	82.61	82.33	0.03	0.13
Boston College	ACC	0.16	0.19	52.17	48.76	0.01	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.21	0.19	73.91	69.49	0.10	0.08
Ohio St.	B10	0.26	0.19	75.00	73.72	0.13	0.09
Bowling Green	MAC	0.27	0.18	47.62	45.68	-0.01	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.17	47.83	44.73	-0.00	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.00	0.17	70.83	73.80	0.00	0.08
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.17	19.05	22.94	-0.03	-0.09
Clemson	ACC	0.21	0.16	69.57	66.88	0.08	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	86.36	81.80	0.12	0.10
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	64.66	0.04	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.20	0.16	79.17	76.61	0.12	0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.16	69.57	67.93	0.04	0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.17	0.15	56.52	59.89	0.02	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.15	43.48	45.31	-0.02	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.14	31.82	42.24	-0.00	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.14	65.22	65.74	0.02	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.14	31.82	30.34	-0.04	-0.06
Texas Christian	MWC	0.23	0.14	40.91	38.27	-0.04	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.12	0.14	77.27	75.69	0.06	0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.14	25.00	34.68	-0.03	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.17	0.14	31.82	29.58	-0.06	-0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.00	0.14	11.11	20.93	-0.00	-0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.14	23.81	27.28	-0.03	-0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.17	0.14	40.91	43.37	-0.03	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.11	0.14	77.27	70.93	0.06	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.14	72.00	73.54	0.02	0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.14	68.18	66.65	0.04	0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.13	25.00	26.64	-0.03	-0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.13	47.62	46.79	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.13	18.18	21.04	-0.10	-0.08
Illinois	B10	0.21	0.13	66.67	59.01	0.07	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.16	0.13	45.45	44.00	-0.01	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.80	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.17	0.12	50.00	49.78	0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.11	50.00	50.91	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.11	59.09	52.85	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.12	0.11	35.00	33.21	-0.03	-0.04
Butler	Horz	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.91	0.08	0.07
Central Florida	CUSA	0.12	0.11	47.62	44.47	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.11	81.82	80.91	0.08	0.07
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.12	0.11	55.56	55.85	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.99	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.10	47.83	46.11	-0.00	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.10	59.09	54.41	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.10	47.62	50.82	-0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.10	69.57	69.99	0.05	0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.10	47.62	49.08	-0.01	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.10	62.50	65.32	0.01	0.03
Army	Pat	0.17	0.10	57.14	59.04	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.16	0.10	45.45	42.62	-0.01	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.10	17.39	20.11	-0.03	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.10	47.06	50.65	-0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.10	66.67	65.62	0.04	0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.10	30.43	32.39	-0.02	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.10	36.36	37.37	-0.02	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.16	0.10	8.70	9.54	-0.13	-0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	5.00	8.59	-0.09	-0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.10	45.45	44.03	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.10	47.06	53.78	-0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.10	77.27	77.12	0.03	0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.09	31.05	-0.05	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.15	0.10	50.00	53.75	0.00	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.16	0.10	21.74	24.84	-0.09	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.22	64.71	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.10	52.17	55.04	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.15	0.10	20.00	24.04	-0.09	-0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	45.45	47.48	-0.01	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.10	0.10	54.17	55.99	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.10	62.50	57.74	0.04	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	38.45	-0.03	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.10	34.78	32.23	-0.05	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.10	78.26	78.92	0.00	0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.09	50.00	50.68	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.12	0.09	77.27	73.36	0.06	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.09	73.91	70.60	0.06	0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.09	33.33	33.43	-0.04	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.09	40.00	42.64	-0.02	-0.01
Centenary	Sum	0.06	0.07	27.27	27.20	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.07	21.05	24.96	-0.07	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.07	42.86	45.31	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.07	65.22	67.00	0.04	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.07	38.10	38.08	-0.01	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	33.33	33.96	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.07	66.67	69.41	0.04	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.07	54.17	58.55	0.00	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.07	19.05	20.55	-0.04	-0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.07	78.26	71.72	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	MWC	0.06	0.07	87.50	87.42	0.04	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.07	22.73	21.40	-0.00	-0.04
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.07	45.45	46.81	-0.01	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.00	0.07	40.00	39.13	-0.00	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.07	56.52	58.43	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.00	0.07	33.33	33.00	-0.00	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	22.73	22.57	-0.06	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	52.38	49.31	0.01	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.07	87.50	83.52	0.04	0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.00	0.07	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.00	0.07	75.00	71.23	0.00	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	67.74	0.02	0.03
South Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.07	50.00	60.53	0.00	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.07	68.42	67.04	0.00	0.02
Utah	MWC	0.06	0.07	45.45	44.32	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.07	60.87	57.71	0.02	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	30.72	-0.02	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	56.52	54.46	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.07	69.57	70.29	0.02	0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.07	82.61	78.56	0.08	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.07	37.50	39.23	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	52.29	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.07	60.87	59.16	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.12	0.07	36.84	36.82	-0.03	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.07	8.70	10.09	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	54.55	56.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	66.67	64.62	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.11	0.07	73.91	70.80	0.05	0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.07	19.05	23.26	-0.03	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.07	91.30	88.21	0.09	0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.07	66.67	68.11	0.04	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.07	68.18	68.72	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.11	0.07	79.17	77.57	0.06	0.04
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.07	60.00	63.83	0.01	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.07	38.10	41.29	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.07	43.48	39.42	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.07	52.17	56.48	0.00	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.07	42.86	42.46	-0.01	-0.01