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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:99.0
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:337
Current SOS:337
Current Record:26-5
Expected Record:26-5
Current Conf Record:19-1
Expected Conf Record:19-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:23-2
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:69
Expected OOC SOS:199



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-599.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Cincinnati (21.0)AmerA74-61L0%0.0
11-18Campbell (316.0)BSthA43-62W100%0.0
11-20North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA72-82W100%0.0
11-22Appalachian St. (335.0)SCH76-70W100%0.0
12-3Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA69-76W100%0.0
12-7IUPUI (322.0)SumA71-65L0%0.0
12-18Winthrop (168.0)BSthH72-66W100%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA77-66L0%0.0
12-31Maryland (78.0)ACCA70-56L0%0.0
1-7Hampton (204.0)MEACH74-61W100%0.0
1-11Florida A&M (295.0)MEACA63-60L0%0.0
1-13Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACA49-64W100%0.0
1-16NJIT (308.0)indH71-55W100%0.0
1-18Delaware St. (329.0)MEACH62-52W100%0.0
1-22North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH84-44W100%0.0
1-25Coppin St. (261.0)MEACH87-63W100%0.0
1-27Morgan St. (225.0)MEACH53-52W100%0.0
2-1Howard (323.0)MEACA65-79W100%0.0
2-3Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA62-66W100%0.0
2-8Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH77-54W100%0.0
2-10Florida A&M (295.0)MEACH92-49W100%0.0
2-15South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA53-67W100%0.0
2-17Savannah St. (273.0)MEACA62-76W100%0.0
2-22North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA55-73W100%0.0
2-25NJIT (308.0)indA62-81W100%0.0
3-1South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH86-44W100%0.0
3-3Savannah St. (273.0)MEACH64-57W100%0.0
3-6Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA70-76W100%0.0
3-12Howard (323.0)MEACN92-46W100%0.0
3-14Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACN68-45W100%0.0
3-15Morgan St. (225.0)MEACN71-62W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC26.3326.3389.5189.5120.8120.81
North Carolina A&TMEAC3.993.9927.5927.59-1.79-1.79
Savannah St.MEAC3.993.9939.2939.29-0.85-0.85
Florida A&MMEAC3.983.9839.2939.29-0.85-0.85
Morgan St.MEAC3.953.9551.7251.720.140.14
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.933.9317.8617.86-2.53-2.53
Norfolk St.MEAC3.933.9357.1457.140.560.56
South Carolina St.MEAC3.923.9226.9226.92-1.81-1.81
HowardMEAC3.923.9220.6920.69-2.30-2.30
NJITind3.343.3439.1339.13-0.73-0.73
Delaware St.MEAC2.432.4325.9325.93-1.17-1.17
Coppin St.MEAC2.402.4036.6736.67-0.64-0.64
HamptonMEAC2.392.3962.0762.070.580.58
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.382.3818.5218.52-1.50-1.50
CampbellBSth1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
North Carolina St.ACC1.721.7263.6463.640.470.47
Appalachian St.SC1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
WinthropBSth1.701.7058.6258.620.290.29
CincinnatiAmer1.701.7081.2581.251.061.06
MarylandACC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA1.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum1.611.617.147.14-1.38-1.38
Wichita St.MVC1.611.61100.00100.001.611.61
PittsburghACC0.230.2373.5373.530.110.11
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
Georgia SouthernSC0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.210.2144.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
LibertyBSth0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
UCFAmer0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
UMass LowellAE0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.140.1413.3313.33-0.10-0.10
LongwoodBSth0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
ClemsonACC0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
FIUCUSA0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
MaineAE0.130.1317.8617.86-0.08-0.08
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
StetsonASun0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DukeACC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
LafayettePat0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0570.3770.370.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
La SalleA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Western KentuckySB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
XavierBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00