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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


North Carolina Central

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:148.9
Current RPI:89
Expected SOS:345
Current SOS:75
Current Record:4-5
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:2-0
Expected Conf Record:14-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-2
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:130
Expected OOC SOS:152



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-5100.42.18%
21-6114.410.48%
20-7129.422.17%
19-8145.128.10%
18-9163.821.39%
17-10184.210.83%
16-11205.53.69%
15-12230.80.92%
14-13256.70.18%
13-14277.80.04%
12-15292.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14North Carolina (11.6)ACCA76-60L0%0.0
11-23Creighton (115.6)BEA65-45L0%0.0
11-25Cincinnati (49.1)AmerA59-50L0%0.0
11-28Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCN65-40W100%0.0
11-29Northern Arizona (212.3)BSkyN36-40W100%0.0
12-5Maryland Eastern Shore (259.1)MEACA63-68W100%0.0
12-7Howard (275.2)MEACN39-61W100%0.0
12-10Maryland (47.6)B10A67-56L0%0.0
12-15Memphis (85.7)AmerA81-47L0%0.0
12-20Mississippi Valley St. (347.1)SWACN0-097%22.0
12-22Jackson St. (284.8)SWACA0-066%5.0
12-29IUPUI (291.5)SumH0-090%14.8
1-10South Carolina St. (306.7)MEACH0-094%18.5
1-12Savannah St. (320.4)MEACH0-096%20.8
1-17Norfolk St. (178.5)MEACA0-048%-0.5
1-19Hampton (246.4)MEACA0-058%2.5
1-24Coppin St. (335.0)MEACH0-098%24.1
1-26Delaware St. (247.9)MEACH0-088%13.8
1-31East Tennessee St. (130.3)SCA0-039%-3.4
2-2Florida A&M (348.9)MEACH0-099%27.0
2-7North Carolina A&T (335.7)MEACA0-082%10.9
2-14Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACA0-079%9.3
2-16Florida A&M (348.9)MEACA0-094%18.3
2-21Morgan St. (303.9)MEACH0-090%14.8
2-28Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACH0-094%18.1
3-2Savannah St. (320.4)MEACA0-085%12.1
3-5North Carolina A&T (335.7)MEACH0-095%19.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
North Carolina CentralMEAC27.5026.1159.4677.365.2014.29
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.514.380.0024.03-0.51-2.27
Florida A&MMEAC0.004.350.0013.01-0.00-3.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.004.3120.0035.59-0.00-1.24
Savannah St.MEAC0.004.3118.1829.44-0.00-1.77
South Carolina St.MEAC0.002.5220.0030.70-0.00-0.97
Norfolk St.MEAC0.002.4950.0056.510.000.32
HamptonMEAC0.002.4940.0050.63-0.000.03
HowardMEAC5.562.4933.3345.53-1.85-0.22
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.562.4645.4545.81-0.51-0.21
Delaware St.MEAC0.002.4640.0047.97-0.00-0.10
Morgan St.MEAC0.002.4618.1836.88-0.00-0.65
Coppin St.MEAC0.002.460.0015.27-0.00-1.71
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.9810.0018.51-0.00-1.24
CincinnatiAmer5.861.9575.0068.172.930.71
Northern ArizonaBSky5.561.9244.4452.53-0.620.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC6.121.9137.5040.49-1.53-0.36
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.9118.1844.99-0.00-0.19
MemphisAmer5.561.9150.0058.660.000.33
CreightonBE5.861.8970.0049.942.35-0.00
IUPUISum0.281.8820.0026.88-0.17-0.87
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.8571.4363.990.000.52
MarylandB105.561.8590.0066.594.440.61
North CarolinaACC5.561.8566.6770.681.850.77
USC UpstateASun0.560.2860.0064.620.110.08
TulaneAmer0.000.2587.5054.790.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.2342.8655.64-0.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.2171.4348.860.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.280.2137.5038.60-0.07-0.05
WinthropBSth0.250.2028.5747.31-0.11-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.1910.0027.42-0.00-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.590.180.0033.84-0.59-0.06
UCFAmer0.000.1855.5634.940.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1662.5066.700.000.05
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1610.0018.58-0.00-0.10
IndianaB100.000.1680.0057.630.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1550.0057.510.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.150.0028.26-0.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1511.1144.62-0.00-0.02
XavierBE0.280.1580.0070.960.170.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.310.150.0039.41-0.31-0.03
MercerSC0.000.1337.5042.45-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.1316.6730.84-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1355.5638.600.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.280.1390.0075.520.220.07
Ball St.MAC0.310.1328.5736.95-0.13-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1366.6751.430.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1336.3644.53-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.1344.4456.91-0.000.02
NJITind0.000.1336.3640.98-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.480.1328.5728.26-0.21-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.13100.0085.330.000.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1328.5757.26-0.000.02
VirginiaACC0.250.12100.0085.310.250.09
Ohio St.B100.000.1290.0084.680.000.09
TempleAmer0.000.1263.6455.600.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1233.3362.92-0.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1220.0038.24-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.120.008.88-0.00-0.10
NebraskaB100.560.1266.6743.780.19-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1281.8264.110.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.1270.0071.330.000.05
TulsaAmer0.250.1260.0056.800.050.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0031.74-0.00-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3349.71-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.310.1018.1846.16-0.20-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.280.1022.2237.75-0.15-0.02
VMISC0.250.1033.3339.22-0.08-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0016.85-0.00-0.07
RadfordBSth0.280.1050.0055.810.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.310.1050.0032.620.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.310.1033.3332.85-0.10-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0977.7878.540.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.0972.7365.930.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0950.0054.230.000.01
VCUA100.230.0970.0071.420.090.04
Arizona St.P120.250.0960.0053.820.050.01
BradleyMVC0.310.0933.3332.09-0.10-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.250.0922.2230.85-0.14-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0966.6745.670.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.250.0944.4456.51-0.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0988.8981.310.000.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0955.5656.400.000.01
IowaB100.280.0972.7362.590.130.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0942.8636.79-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0944.4445.59-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.530.0971.4357.100.230.01
South DakotaSum0.250.0927.2738.97-0.11-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0937.5031.95-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0955.5647.870.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.840.0944.4445.64-0.09-0.01
MississippiSEC0.840.0970.0052.610.340.00
Penn St.B100.000.0990.9153.850.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.230.0955.5638.130.03-0.02
ButlerBE0.280.0980.0072.550.170.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.0944.4444.78-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.230.09100.0082.080.230.06
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0722.2230.99-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0744.4451.58-0.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0725.0029.59-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0755.5661.790.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3331.58-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0023.71-0.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0744.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0750.0049.620.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.620.0785.7161.020.440.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0720.0041.46-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0777.7876.240.000.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0757.1470.590.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0760.0037.220.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0780.0064.110.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0725.0038.92-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.280.0675.0058.430.140.01
RichmondA100.280.0655.5657.090.030.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0610.0030.45-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0671.4361.370.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0625.0033.17-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.260.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
DuquesneA100.280.0628.5731.23-0.12-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.03
UMBCAE0.510.0610.0020.91-0.41-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.280.0657.1456.750.040.01
BaylorB120.310.0690.0073.870.250.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.230.0637.5037.96-0.06-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2933.32-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.900.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0644.4455.75-0.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0650.0041.830.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0642.8642.32-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.17-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0625.0032.77-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0019.99-0.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.0672.7363.730.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.110.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.04
GeorgetownBE0.000.0666.6759.460.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
Iowa St.B120.250.0688.8963.800.200.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.620.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.310.0688.8963.660.240.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0672.7353.260.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0660.0035.070.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0065.410.000.02
St. Francis PANEC0.540.0650.0062.270.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5065.040.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0037.28-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.250.0614.2933.54-0.18-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.970.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0337.5040.20-0.08-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2945.19-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0380.0069.620.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0316.6719.68-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.560.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.240.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4363.410.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6762.620.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0053.850.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.910.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0065.400.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.19-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.960.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3342.19-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5033.00-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0327.2737.85-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0336.3647.13-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
ElonCAA0.000.0337.5047.87-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.280.0330.0029.80-0.11-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0362.5071.290.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.0325.0023.43-0.14-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2237.50-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0333.3334.28-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.69-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.050.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0052.800.000.00
ToledoMAC0.280.0360.0059.420.060.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.78-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0342.8643.10-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.280.0342.8637.65-0.04-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0366.6742.100.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.230.0340.0036.29-0.05-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.250.030.0017.51-0.25-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.250.030.0011.40-0.25-0.02
DavidsonA100.280.0387.5077.020.210.02
DetroitHorz0.230.0344.4448.88-0.03-0.00
FloridaSEC0.280.0360.0064.930.060.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0090.940.000.02
KentuckySEC0.280.03100.0094.790.280.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0342.8652.71-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.750.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.920.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
NavyPat0.230.0320.0021.58-0.14-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.250.0377.7867.290.140.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0377.7855.460.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0330.0039.44-0.11-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.310.0370.0072.830.120.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.0366.6777.690.100.02
Stony BrookAE0.310.0333.3354.74-0.100.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0066.180.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0325.0028.68-0.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0337.5041.20-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.280.0372.7357.280.130.00
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0387.5085.320.230.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02