North Carolina Central

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	155.0
Current RPI:	155
Expected SOS:	307
Current SOS:	307
Current Record:	19-9
Expected Record:	19-9
Current Conf Record:	15-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	17-2
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	171
Expected OOC SOS:	103

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-9	155.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Carolina Central.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	71-57	L	0%
11-14	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	73-60	L	0%
11-15	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	N	59-55	W	100%
11-16	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	N	81-69	L	0%
11-24	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	36-38	L	0%
11-27	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	70-52	W	100%
12-1	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	A	62-66	W	100%
12-4	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	57-63	L	0%
12-19	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	72-69	L	0%
12-22	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	67-73	W	100%
12-29	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	75-66	L	0%
1-2	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	57-64	W	100%
1-12	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	A	62-85	W	100%
1-14	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	A	66-75	W	100%
1-21	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	H	71-36	W	100%
1-26	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	H	84-75	W	100%
1-28	Morgan St. (236.0)	MEAC	H	69-61	W	100%
2-2	Delaware St. (263.0)	MEAC	A	43-54	W	100%
2-4	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	A	54-82	W	100%
2-9	Florida A&M (331.0)	MEAC	H	51-43	W	100%
2-11	Bethune Cookman (277.0)	MEAC	H	81-75	W	100%
2-16	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	A	44-36	L	0%
2-18	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	52-71	W	100%
2-23	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	51-47	W	100%
3-2	Savannah St. (166.0)	MEAC	H	51-47	W	100%
3-4	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	H	62-54	W	100%
3-7	Hampton (287.0)	MEAC	A	64-68	W	100%
3-13	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	N	42-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Carolina Central's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Carolina Central's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Carolina Central.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Carolina Central	MEAC	26.28	26.28	70.90	70.90	10.98	10.98
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	6.19	6.19	54.84	54.84	0.60	0.60
Savannah St.	MEAC	4.33	4.33	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
Florida A&M	MEAC	4.31	4.31	22.22	22.22	-2.39	-2.39
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	4.30	4.30	40.00	40.00	-0.86	-0.86
South Carolina St.	MEAC	4.25	4.25	15.38	15.38	-2.94	-2.94
Utah Valley	GWC	3.65	3.65	38.46	38.46	-0.84	-0.84
Morgan St.	MEAC	2.57	2.57	54.84	54.84	0.25	0.25
Delaware St.	MEAC	2.51	2.51	43.33	43.33	-0.33	-0.33
Howard	MEAC	2.42	2.42	21.43	21.43	-1.38	-1.38
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.39	2.39	23.33	23.33	-1.28	-1.28
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.36	2.36	7.41	7.41	-2.01	-2.01
Hampton	MEAC	2.35	2.35	46.67	46.67	-0.16	-0.16
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.89	1.89	70.00	70.00	0.76	0.76
Wichita St.	MVC	1.87	1.87	75.76	75.76	0.97	0.97
Wyoming	MWC	1.85	1.85	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Southern	SWAC	1.85	1.85	71.43	71.43	0.79	0.79
South Dakota	Sum	1.85	1.85	25.93	25.93	-0.89	-0.89
Marquette	BE	1.84	1.84	73.33	73.33	0.86	0.86
Wagner	NEC	1.84	1.84	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
Drake	MVC	1.84	1.84	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Winthrop	BSth	1.81	1.81	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.73	0.73	65.62	65.62	0.23	0.23
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.33	0.33	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.27	0.27	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.21	0.21	71.43	71.43	0.09	0.09
Central Florida	CUSA	0.21	0.21	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
Radford	BSth	0.20	0.20	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.18	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.17	0.17	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
Campbell	BSth	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Albany	AE	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.14	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
IUPUI	Sum	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.13	0.13	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
High Point	BSth	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.06	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00