Cleveland St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	199.0
Current RPI:	199
Expected SOS:	132
Current SOS:	132
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-3
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	125
Expected OOC SOS:	133

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	199.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Grambling (347.0)	SWAC	H	92-49	W	100%
11-12	Bowling Green (274.0)	MAC	N	79-73	W	100%
11-13	Michigan (20.0)	B10	A	77-47	L	0%
11-17	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	67-55	W	100%
11-20	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	71-62	L	0%
11-28	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	63-69	W	100%
12-1	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	78-73	W	100%
12-8	North Carolina St. (33.0)	ACC	A	80-63	L	0%
12-15	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	A	87-53	L	0%
12-23	Akron (43.0)	MAC	A	87-57	L	0%
1-2	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	H	55-72	L	0%
1-4	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	74-50	L	0%
1-7	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	60-50	W	100%
1-9	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	69-53	L	0%
1-12	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	H	74-62	W	100%
1-17	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	69-57	L	0%
1-19	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	77-50	L	0%
1-23	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	H	55-67	L	0%
1-26	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	73-59	L	0%
2-2	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	66-77	W	100%
2-5	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	H	66-60	W	100%
2-9	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	72-80	L	0%
2-12	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	92-62	L	0%
2-15	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	59-66	L	0%
2-17	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	88-67	W	100%
2-20	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	41-50	L	0%
2-23	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	54-60	W	100%
3-2	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	87-60	L	0%
3-5	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	82-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cleveland St.	Horz	26.38	26.38	38.84	38.84	-5.89	-5.89
Illinois Chicago	Horz	6.07	6.07	53.57	53.57	0.43	0.43
Wright St.	Horz	4.49	4.49	60.00	60.00	0.90	0.90
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	4.49	4.49	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.45	4.45	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Valparaiso	Horz	4.43	4.43	76.67	76.67	2.36	2.36
Detroit	Horz	4.43	4.43	60.71	60.71	0.95	0.95
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.40	4.40	42.86	42.86	-0.63	-0.63
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.34	4.34	17.86	17.86	-2.79	-2.79
Kent St.	MAC	2.10	2.10	58.06	58.06	0.34	0.34
Bowling Green	MAC	2.09	2.09	37.93	37.93	-0.50	-0.50
Toledo	MAC	2.07	2.07	55.56	55.56	0.23	0.23
Akron	MAC	1.98	1.98	80.00	80.00	1.19	1.19
Ball St.	MAC	1.90	1.90	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	1.81	1.81	74.07	74.07	0.87	0.87
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.78	1.78	69.70	69.70	0.70	0.70
Grambling	SWAC	1.75	1.75	0.00	0.00	-1.75	-1.75
Robert Morris	NEC	1.75	1.75	68.75	68.75	0.66	0.66
Michigan	B10	1.75	1.75	77.42	77.42	0.96	0.96
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.75	1.75	46.43	46.43	-0.12	-0.12
Old Dominion	CAA	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.46	0.46	13.79	13.79	-0.33	-0.33
Miami OH	MAC	0.45	0.45	26.67	26.67	-0.21	-0.21
Buffalo	MAC	0.40	0.40	37.50	37.50	-0.10	-0.10
Central Michigan	MAC	0.34	0.34	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.31	0.31	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.31	0.31	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.31	0.31	72.73	72.73	0.14	0.14
IUPUI	Sum	0.26	0.26	13.33	13.33	-0.19	-0.19
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.23	0.23	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Chicago St.	GWC	0.22	0.22	25.00	25.00	-0.11	-0.11
South Dakota	Sum	0.21	0.21	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.17	0.17	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.14	0.14	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	85.19	85.19	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00