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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:260.0
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:134
Current SOS:134
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:202
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22260.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Kent St. (142.0)MACN74-79L0%0.0
11-15Canisius (171.0)MAACH67-64W100%0.0
11-18Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA85-74L0%0.0
11-23Kentucky (3.0)SECA101-70L0%0.0
11-27Duquesne (267.0)A10A78-71L0%0.0
11-30Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA78-51L0%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH73-62W100%0.0
12-7Western Michigan (173.0)MACH85-62W100%0.0
12-10Purdue (19.0)B10A77-53L0%0.0
12-17Ohio (117.0)MACA71-53L0%0.0
12-22Belmont (61.0)OVCA88-61L0%0.0
12-29Green Bay (157.0)HorzH75-76L0%0.0
12-31Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH62-53W100%0.0
1-5Wright St. (115.0)HorzA55-51L0%0.0
1-7Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA83-75L0%0.0
1-12Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH54-59L0%0.0
1-14Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH67-78L0%0.0
1-16Oakland (109.0)HorzA65-76W100%0.0
1-20Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA63-62L0%0.0
1-23Green Bay (157.0)HorzA83-73L0%0.0
1-28Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA67-64L0%0.0
2-2Detroit (289.0)HorzH90-73W100%0.0
2-4Oakland (109.0)HorzH51-53L0%0.0
2-9Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA78-57L0%0.0
2-11Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA63-66W100%0.0
2-16Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH60-62L0%0.0
2-18Wright St. (115.0)HorzH68-74L0%0.0
2-21Detroit (289.0)HorzA91-83L0%0.0
2-25Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH69-55W100%0.0
3-3Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzN69-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.3926.3925.4025.40-12.99-12.99
Youngstown St.Horz6.006.0031.0331.03-2.28-2.28
MilwaukeeHorz4.534.5328.1228.12-1.98-1.98
Northern KentuckyHorz4.434.4366.6766.671.481.48
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.354.3541.3841.38-0.75-0.75
OaklandHorz4.354.3575.0075.002.172.17
ValparaisoHorz4.324.3272.4172.411.941.94
Wright St.Horz4.324.3257.1457.140.620.62
Green BayHorz4.294.2951.8551.850.160.16
DetroitHorz4.294.2921.4321.43-2.45-2.45
OhioMAC1.841.8462.0762.070.440.44
Kent St.MAC1.831.8360.6160.610.390.39
Tennessee MartinOVC1.831.8360.0060.000.370.37
CanisiusMAAC1.821.8256.2556.250.230.23
Western MichiganMAC1.801.8050.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC1.801.8084.8584.851.251.25
DuquesneA101.741.7429.0329.03-0.73-0.73
BelmontOVC1.741.7476.9276.920.940.94
Arkansas St.SB1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.691.6927.5927.59-0.76-0.76
PurdueB101.671.6777.4277.420.910.91
ToledoMAC0.410.4150.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.270.2730.0030.00-0.11-0.11
AkronMAC0.260.2675.7675.760.130.13
Central MichiganMAC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1530.3030.30-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Ohio St.B100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00