Cleveland St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	282.0
Current RPI:	282
Expected SOS:	234
Current SOS:	234
Current Record:	11-23
Expected Record:	11-23
Current Conf Record:	9-13
Expected Conf Record:	9-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-11
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	309
Expected OOC SOS:	181

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-23	282.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	67-57	L	0%
11-14	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	70-38	L	0%
11-17	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	80-56	W	100%
11-20	East Carolina (274.0)	Amer	A	72-69	L	0%
11-24	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	73-74	L	0%
11-29	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	75-72	W	100%
12-2	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	72-62	L	0%
12-6	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	78-67	L	0%
12-19	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	79-77	L	0%
12-21	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	81-62	L	0%
12-23	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	H	62-77	L	0%
12-29	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	111-61	L	0%
1-1	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	77-80	L	0%
1-4	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	H	80-79	W	100%
1-6	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	63-67	L	0%
1-10	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	85-84	L	0%
1-12	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	81-68	L	0%
1-15	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	70-55	L	0%
1-18	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	70-67	W	100%
1-20	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	80-87	L	0%
1-25	Green Bay (303.0)	Horz	A	66-44	L	0%
1-27	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	70-47	L	0%
2-1	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	77-74	W	100%
2-3	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	61-78	L	0%
2-8	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	78-73	L	0%
2-10	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	78-86	W	100%
2-14	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	75-72	W	100%
2-16	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	66-82	L	0%
2-19	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	72-63	L	0%
2-24	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	94-99	W	100%
3-2	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	N	72-71	W	100%
3-3	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	N	80-89	W	100%
3-5	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	N	43-44	W	100%
3-6	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	N	74-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cleveland St.	Horz	26.63	26.63	32.19	32.19	-9.48	-9.48
Wright St.	Horz	5.48	5.48	72.41	72.41	2.46	2.46
Oakland	Horz	5.46	5.46	56.67	56.67	0.73	0.73
Youngstown St.	Horz	5.35	5.35	18.52	18.52	-3.37	-3.37
Northern Kentucky	Horz	5.32	5.32	69.23	69.23	2.05	2.05
Milwaukee	Horz	4.05	4.05	44.83	44.83	-0.42	-0.42
Green Bay	Horz	4.03	4.03	32.14	32.14	-1.44	-1.44
Detroit	Horz	4.00	4.00	17.86	17.86	-2.57	-2.57
IUPUI	Horz	3.97	3.97	30.77	30.77	-1.53	-1.53
Illinois Chicago	Horz	3.96	3.96	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	1.77	1.77	65.62	65.62	0.55	0.55
Western Michigan	MAC	1.75	1.75	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	1.71	1.71	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Akron	MAC	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Rutgers	B10	1.59	1.59	40.62	40.62	-0.30	-0.30
Michigan St.	B10	1.58	1.58	87.50	87.50	1.19	1.19
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.56	1.56	16.13	16.13	-1.06	-1.06
East Carolina	Amer	1.56	1.56	31.03	31.03	-0.59	-0.59
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.54	1.54	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Cincinnati	Amer	1.52	1.52	87.88	87.88	1.15	1.15
Arkansas St.	SB	1.47	1.47	31.03	31.03	-0.56	-0.56
Niagara	MAAC	1.47	1.47	58.06	58.06	0.24	0.24
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.34	0.34	58.62	58.62	0.06	0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.33	0.33	36.67	36.67	-0.09	-0.09
Ball St.	MAC	0.26	0.26	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.25	0.25	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.25	0.25	75.76	75.76	0.13	0.13
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Memphis	Amer	0.19	0.19	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.19	0.19	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.19	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.17	0.17	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.14	0.14	82.35	82.35	0.09	0.09
Fairfield	MAAC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	82.76	82.76	0.08	0.08
Jacksonville	ASun	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Houston	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UCF	Amer	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	3.33	3.33	-0.09	-0.09
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	ACC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.07	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	Slnd	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.04	0.04	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.04	0.04	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.04	0.04	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00