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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:257.4
Current RPI:222
Expected SOS:141
Current SOS:79
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:77



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13115.80.06%
15-14134.00.26%
14-15154.00.76%
13-16172.42.54%
12-17195.95.71%
11-18217.411.17%
10-19237.315.71%
9-20256.418.55%
8-21275.017.97%
7-22290.413.90%
6-23303.88.29%
5-24315.33.60%
4-25323.81.18%
3-26330.00.27%
2-27340.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Kent St. (205.9)MACN74-79L0%0.0
11-15Canisius (211.7)MAACH67-64W100%0.0
11-18Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCA85-74L0%0.0
11-23Kentucky (7.3)SECA101-70L0%0.0
11-27Duquesne (255.5)A10A78-71L0%0.0
11-30Arkansas St. (68.6)SBA78-51L0%0.0
12-3Bethune Cookman (340.9)MEACH0-083%11.4
12-7Western Michigan (212.4)MACH0-045%-1.5
12-10Purdue (28.6)B10A0-01%-28.0
12-17Ohio (94.7)MACA0-012%-14.3
12-22Belmont (122.5)OVCA0-014%-12.8
12-29Green Bay (161.8)HorzH0-039%-3.5
12-31Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-060%3.1
1-5Wright St. (152.2)HorzA0-021%-9.5
1-7Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzA0-024%-8.7
1-12Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzH0-045%-1.6
1-14Valparaiso (74.9)HorzH0-021%-9.8
1-16Oakland (89.5)HorzA0-07%-17.8
1-20Milwaukee (251.6)HorzA0-040%-3.1
1-23Green Bay (161.8)HorzA0-021%-9.7
1-28Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzA0-037%-4.0
2-2Detroit (301.2)HorzH0-070%6.2
2-4Oakland (89.5)HorzH0-017%-11.7
2-9Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-09%-15.9
2-11Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzA0-026%-7.8
2-16Northern Kentucky (176.9)HorzH0-042%-2.5
2-18Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-039%-3.3
2-21Detroit (301.2)HorzA0-050%-0.0
2-25Youngstown St. (237.6)HorzH0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz28.6226.3815.0029.96-20.03-10.57
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4633.3331.94-0.00-1.61
Green BayHorz0.004.4233.3347.12-0.00-0.26
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4285.7173.670.002.09
OaklandHorz0.004.4283.3377.700.002.45
Wright St.Horz0.004.4271.4354.710.000.42
Youngstown St.Horz0.694.4242.8636.45-0.10-1.20
DetroitHorz0.004.390.0017.97-0.00-2.81
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.3950.0049.220.00-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.004.3950.0051.020.000.09
Tennessee MartinOVC10.141.9071.4352.694.350.10
OhioMAC0.001.9080.0067.570.000.67
Kent St.MAC8.331.8740.0050.16-1.670.01
Western MichiganMAC0.001.8716.6735.79-0.00-0.53
BelmontOVC0.001.8740.0060.44-0.000.39
CanisiusMAAC9.971.8740.0042.90-1.99-0.27
KentuckySEC10.071.87100.0085.7910.071.34
DuquesneA1010.141.8128.5732.47-4.35-0.63
Arkansas St.SB8.331.7583.3367.305.560.61
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.001.7516.6732.46-0.00-0.62
PurdueB100.001.7271.4373.640.000.82
ToledoMAC0.000.3942.8650.36-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.3333.3343.64-0.00-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.000.2742.8661.90-0.000.06
Miami OHMAC0.000.2750.0033.010.00-0.09
AkronMAC0.000.2483.3369.840.000.09
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2466.6756.360.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2150.0043.490.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.2150.0055.850.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.2142.8645.30-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.600.2050.0061.590.000.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1820.0041.93-0.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.1857.1440.590.09-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1840.0050.91-0.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.1850.0052.330.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.180.0017.30-0.00-0.12
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1866.6754.420.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1540.0041.65-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1550.0038.430.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.150.0038.35-0.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1557.1459.480.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.1557.1442.660.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1525.0039.28-0.00-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1416.6727.03-0.00-0.07
Penn St.B100.520.1462.5043.960.13-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1214.2928.66-0.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1242.8634.17-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.690.1283.3370.360.460.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0018.22-0.00-0.08
Rhode IslandA100.000.1271.4370.330.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.1280.0035.960.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.700.000.07
South AlabamaSB0.000.1283.3361.150.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0023.26-0.00-0.06
Georgia St.SB0.000.1260.0067.410.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1266.6754.380.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1233.3338.19-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.1166.6756.020.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0957.1447.320.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0966.6775.370.000.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0950.0046.670.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.690.0957.1448.240.10-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.320.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0957.1448.860.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0960.0070.140.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.0866.6770.740.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0023.46-0.00-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3335.92-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0059.670.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0056.260.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0675.0070.470.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0614.2928.15-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0019.30-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.0650.0049.010.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0628.5728.46-0.00-0.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.520.0671.4346.010.22-0.00
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0620.0036.00-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0628.5739.44-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0666.6761.340.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0614.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
OregonP120.000.0671.4366.730.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.690.000.01
George MasonA100.690.0657.1442.940.10-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
Arizona St.P120.600.0657.1436.050.09-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0683.3355.200.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0666.6772.440.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0683.3375.060.000.03
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0685.7175.950.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0671.4371.570.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0350.0035.230.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0328.5730.29-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.600.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6732.240.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.30-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.520.030.0024.25-0.52-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0350.0058.980.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.520.0320.0034.39-0.31-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0350.0066.170.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0028.15-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.520.0325.0024.28-0.26-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.630.000.00
ArmyPat0.600.0333.3345.58-0.20-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.600.0366.6769.810.200.01
GeorgetownBE0.600.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0328.5734.18-0.00-0.01
LehighPat0.600.0333.3367.01-0.200.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.690.030.0024.77-0.69-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.600.0350.0061.810.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.690.0357.1447.220.10-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
TexasB120.000.0350.0036.240.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0357.1464.940.000.01
WoffordSC0.690.030.0033.58-0.69-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0340.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0042.55-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.520.0333.3340.49-0.17-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0385.7156.490.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0316.6729.36-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.520.0340.0043.86-0.10-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.600.0325.0056.71-0.300.00
UMBCAE0.520.0380.0055.340.310.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.560.000.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02