Cleveland St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	52.0
Current RPI:	60
Expected SOS:	157
Current SOS:	193
Current Record:	18-4
Expected Record:	24-6
Current Conf Record:	9-2
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	63.85%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-1
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	25
Expected OOC SOS:	88

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-4	35.0	10.81%
25-5	43.2	29.40%
24-6	52.4	32.02%
23-7	63.0	19.57%
22-8	75.2	6.69%
21-9	87.6	1.32%
20-10	98.6	0.18%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Vanderbilt (31.5)	SEC	A	58-71	W	100%	0.0
11-18	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	H	67-64	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	A	53-57	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Boston University (175.2)	AE	N	62-63	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	N	63-53	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Rhode Island (250.6)	A10	A	45-67	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	A	43-45	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	A	61-66	W	100%	0.0
12-8	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	A	58-62	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Akron (49.0)	MAC	H	69-66	W	100%	0.0
12-19	South Florida (96.1)	BE	A	70-55	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	H	63-45	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Toledo (277.2)	MAC	A	64-72	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	67-73	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	73-56	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	69-48	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	69-76	W	100%	0.0
1-15	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	A	72-66	L	0%	0.0
1-20	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	78-68	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	83-57	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	47-67	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	A	47-65	W	100%	0.0
2-5	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	0-0		85%	11.1
2-9	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	0-0		81%	9.6
2-11	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	0-0		83%	10.5
2-14	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	0-0		54%	1.2
2-18	Drexel (79.2)	CAA	H	0-0		65%	4.1
2-21	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	0-0		71%	6.1
2-23	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	H	0-0		82%	10.2
2-25	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	0-0		92%	15.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cleveland St.	Horz	26.36	26.39	84.21	81.71	18.04	16.74
Youngstown St.	Horz	5.27	4.35	50.00	51.65	0.00	0.14
Detroit	Horz	3.12	4.30	50.00	52.01	0.00	0.17
Valparaiso	Horz	3.06	4.30	63.64	63.92	0.83	1.20
Loyola Chicago	Horz	5.17	4.30	21.05	22.93	-2.99	-2.33
Illinois Chicago	Horz	3.06	4.30	31.58	31.84	-1.13	-1.56
Butler	Horz	3.01	4.28	52.17	53.83	0.13	0.33
Wright St.	Horz	3.07	4.28	43.48	43.21	-0.40	-0.58
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	3.07	4.27	59.09	60.31	0.56	0.88
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	2.94	4.27	36.84	41.38	-0.77	-0.74
Toledo	MAC	2.66	1.94	40.00	42.26	-0.53	-0.30
Akron	MAC	2.59	1.93	71.43	70.25	1.11	0.78
Rhode Island	A10	2.42	1.78	21.74	21.29	-1.37	-1.02
Hofstra	CAA	2.37	1.78	29.17	33.24	-0.99	-0.60
Kent St.	MAC	2.38	1.75	75.00	71.52	1.19	0.75
Robert Morris	NEC	2.39	1.73	70.83	72.36	0.99	0.77
Boston University	AE	2.37	1.72	50.00	53.61	0.00	0.12
Drexel	CAA	0.05	1.72	79.17	79.58	0.03	1.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.32	1.72	63.16	61.25	0.61	0.39
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.27	1.70	27.78	30.93	-1.01	-0.65
South Florida	BE	2.27	1.67	52.38	46.83	0.11	-0.11
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.27	1.67	72.73	68.06	1.03	0.60
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.26	0.29	5.26	7.30	-0.24	-0.25
Duquesne	A10	0.31	0.26	59.09	56.35	0.06	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.20	0.26	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.24	0.25	40.00	40.18	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.24	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.33	0.23	68.42	66.45	0.12	0.08
Central Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.23	28.57	34.20	-0.11	-0.07
Western Michigan	MAC	0.21	0.23	40.91	42.96	-0.04	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.26	0.22	30.00	34.15	-0.10	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.22	81.82	77.20	0.13	0.12
Marquette	BE	0.21	0.17	79.17	75.98	0.12	0.09
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	21.74	22.76	-0.10	-0.09
Fordham	A10	0.21	0.17	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.15	0.17	55.00	57.41	0.02	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.21	0.14	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.14	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.15	0.14	65.22	63.74	0.05	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.19	0.14	80.00	78.06	0.12	0.08
Delaware	CAA	0.09	0.14	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.14	0.14	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.12	33.33	34.47	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.06
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.12	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.16	0.12	65.22	62.65	0.05	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.12	63.64	63.16	0.04	0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.11	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.05	-0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.11	86.96	85.46	0.07	0.08
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.11	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.15	0.11	78.26	72.34	0.09	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.11	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.03
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.11	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.11	39.13	36.10	-0.02	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.11	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.05
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.11	82.61	77.63	0.06	0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.11	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.11	0.00	4.02	-0.14	-0.10
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.11	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.05
Samford	SC	0.17	0.09	33.33	35.26	-0.06	-0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.09	76.19	75.94	0.06	0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	22.22	27.62	-0.06	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.09	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.09	17.39	19.81	-0.11	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.17	0.09	72.73	64.43	0.08	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.09	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.16	0.09	4.76	9.95	-0.15	-0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.00	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.00	-0.04
Temple	A10	0.10	0.09	77.27	75.06	0.06	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.09	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.10	0.09	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.15	0.08	60.87	61.37	0.03	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.10	0.08	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.11	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.08	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.08	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.08	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.08	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.10	0.08	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.08	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.07
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.08	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.00	0.08	12.50	13.44	-0.00	-0.06
Vermont	AE	0.14	0.08	60.00	62.49	0.03	0.02
Maine	AE	0.09	0.08	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.08	28.00	28.91	-0.06	-0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.09	0.08	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	18.18	21.13	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.12	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.02	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.11	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.03	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.06	36.84	41.45	-0.03	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.04	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.06	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.06	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.06	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.02	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.00	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.05	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.10	0.05	83.33	84.76	0.07	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.42	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.05	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.05	73.91	75.00	0.05	0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.09	0.05	8.70	12.13	-0.08	-0.04
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	17.39	20.97	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.05	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.05
Long Island	NEC	0.09	0.05	70.83	71.05	0.04	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	13.64	16.35	-0.03	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.09	0.05	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.05	66.67	68.05	0.03	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.05	82.61	84.57	0.06	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.00	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.01	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.03	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.04	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.03	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.00	0.03	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.03	85.71	82.18	0.04	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.00	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.03	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01