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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:52.0
Current RPI:60
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:193
Current Record:18-4
Expected Record:24-6
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:63.85%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:10-2
Expected OOC RPI:25
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-435.010.81%
25-543.229.40%
24-652.432.02%
23-763.019.57%
22-875.26.69%
21-987.61.32%
20-1098.60.18%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Vanderbilt (31.5)SECA58-71W100%0.0
11-18St. Bonaventure (93.8)A10H67-64W100%0.0
11-22Kent St. (84.8)MACA53-57W100%0.0
11-25Boston University (175.2)AEN62-63W100%0.0
11-26Hofstra (239.2)CAAN63-53L0%0.0
11-27Rhode Island (250.6)A10A45-67W100%0.0
12-1Wright St. (216.3)HorzA43-45W100%0.0
12-3Detroit (181.7)HorzA61-66W100%0.0
12-8Robert Morris (111.2)NECA58-62W100%0.0
12-10Akron (49.0)MACH69-66W100%0.0
12-19South Florida (96.1)BEA70-55L0%0.0
12-22Sam Houston St. (286.0)SlndH63-45W100%0.0
12-28Toledo (277.2)MACA64-72W100%0.0
12-31Youngstown St. (163.1)HorzH67-73L0%0.0
1-5Illinois Chicago (290.5)HorzH73-56W100%0.0
1-7Loyola Chicago (310.1)HorzH69-48W100%0.0
1-13Butler (143.2)HorzA69-76W100%0.0
1-15Valparaiso (102.8)HorzA72-66L0%0.0
1-20Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzH78-68W100%0.0
1-22Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzH83-57W100%0.0
1-28Youngstown St. (163.1)HorzA47-67W100%0.0
2-3Loyola Chicago (310.1)HorzA47-65W100%0.0
2-5Illinois Chicago (290.5)HorzA0-085%11.1
2-9Valparaiso (102.8)HorzH0-081%9.6
2-11Butler (143.2)HorzH0-083%10.5
2-14Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)HorzA0-054%1.2
2-18Drexel (79.2)CAAH0-065%4.1
2-21Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)HorzA0-071%6.1
2-23Detroit (181.7)HorzH0-082%10.2
2-25Wright St. (216.3)HorzH0-092%15.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.3626.3984.2181.7118.0416.74
Youngstown St.Horz5.274.3550.0051.650.000.14
DetroitHorz3.124.3050.0052.010.000.17
ValparaisoHorz3.064.3063.6463.920.831.20
Loyola ChicagoHorz5.174.3021.0522.93-2.99-2.33
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.064.3031.5831.84-1.13-1.56
ButlerHorz3.014.2852.1753.830.130.33
Wright St.Horz3.074.2843.4843.21-0.40-0.58
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz3.074.2759.0960.310.560.88
Wisconsin Green BayHorz2.944.2736.8441.38-0.77-0.74
ToledoMAC2.661.9440.0042.26-0.53-0.30
AkronMAC2.591.9371.4370.251.110.78
Rhode IslandA102.421.7821.7421.29-1.37-1.02
HofstraCAA2.371.7829.1733.24-0.99-0.60
Kent St.MAC2.381.7575.0071.521.190.75
Robert MorrisNEC2.391.7370.8372.360.990.77
Boston UniversityAE2.371.7250.0053.610.000.12
DrexelCAA0.051.7279.1779.580.031.02
St. BonaventureA102.321.7263.1661.250.610.39
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.271.7027.7830.93-1.01-0.65
South FloridaBE2.271.6752.3846.830.11-0.11
VanderbiltSEC2.271.6772.7368.061.030.60
Northern IllinoisMAC0.260.295.267.30-0.24-0.25
DuquesneA100.310.2659.0956.350.060.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.200.2647.6248.82-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.240.2540.0040.18-0.05-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.2440.9138.38-0.03-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.330.2368.4266.450.120.08
Central MichiganMAC0.260.2328.5734.20-0.11-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.210.2340.9142.96-0.04-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.260.2230.0034.15-0.10-0.07
OhioMAC0.200.2281.8277.200.130.12
MarquetteBE0.210.1779.1775.980.120.09
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1721.7422.76-0.10-0.09
FordhamA100.210.1740.9134.50-0.04-0.05
Ball St.MAC0.150.1755.0057.410.020.03
DePaulBE0.210.1450.0042.830.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1456.5254.220.010.01
XavierA100.150.1465.2263.740.050.04
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.190.1480.0078.060.120.08
DelawareCAA0.090.1447.8350.65-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.140.1447.8348.56-0.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1233.3334.47-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.050.1233.3335.97-0.02-0.03
WisconsinB100.110.1275.0073.970.050.06
DaytonA100.160.1260.8760.960.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1245.4544.02-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.100.1247.6251.08-0.000.00
Notre DameBE0.160.1265.2262.650.050.03
Oregon St.P120.150.1263.6463.160.040.03
IUPUISum0.100.1134.7835.50-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.150.1134.7832.08-0.05-0.04
Ohio St.B100.100.1186.9685.460.070.08
CharlotteA100.050.1150.0049.450.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.150.1178.2672.340.090.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.1162.5062.490.010.03
La SalleA100.140.1170.8368.820.060.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1139.1336.10-0.02-0.03
LouisvilleBE0.100.1178.2672.660.050.05
FloridaSEC0.100.1182.6177.630.060.06
Georgia St.CAA0.090.1166.6769.690.030.04
BinghamtonAE0.140.110.004.02-0.14-0.10
George MasonCAA0.090.1176.0072.500.050.05
SamfordSC0.170.0933.3335.26-0.06-0.03
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.0976.1975.940.060.05
Texas St.Slnd0.110.0922.2227.62-0.06-0.04
Penn St.B100.170.0941.6738.67-0.03-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0981.8276.800.040.05
CanisiusMAAC0.170.0917.3919.81-0.11-0.05
IllinoisB100.170.0972.7364.430.080.03
NiagaraMAAC0.120.0937.5041.54-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.160.094.769.95-0.15-0.07
BradleyMVC0.000.0924.0024.86-0.00-0.04
TempleA100.100.0977.2775.060.060.04
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0954.5554.300.000.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.0940.0041.30-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.0943.4840.28-0.01-0.02
TexasB120.150.0860.8761.370.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.100.0868.1869.100.040.03
West VirginiaBE0.110.0865.2265.170.030.03
MassachusettsA100.050.0873.9168.580.020.03
CincinnatiBE0.050.0869.5765.470.020.03
Old DominionCAA0.100.0860.0058.290.020.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0860.8758.160.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.0856.5250.270.010.00
TowsonCAA0.050.084.005.26-0.04-0.07
VillanovaBE0.100.0845.4546.08-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0812.5013.44-0.00-0.06
VermontAE0.140.0860.0062.490.030.02
MaineAE0.090.0850.0049.730.00-0.00
MonmouthNEC0.140.0828.0028.91-0.06-0.03
QuinnipiacNEC0.090.0856.5257.150.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0661.9063.520.010.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0647.0650.75-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0618.1821.13-0.04-0.04
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.120.0657.1460.750.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.0642.8639.66-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0652.6348.410.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.060.0676.1970.730.030.03
FurmanSC0.110.0647.6248.83-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.110.0672.7368.280.050.02
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0637.5038.33-0.03-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0037.30-0.02-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0666.6768.550.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0643.4844.25-0.01-0.01
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.050.0635.0035.31-0.01-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0659.0957.760.000.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0676.1972.910.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0662.5061.500.010.01
OaklandSum0.050.0648.0050.21-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0631.8242.13-0.02-0.01
CornellIvy0.100.0636.8441.45-0.03-0.01
Loyola MDMAAC0.060.0677.2773.450.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0670.8364.420.040.02
RichmondA100.100.0650.0048.490.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0645.4545.55-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.060.0677.2777.670.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.100.0656.5255.200.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0668.1869.680.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0654.1754.750.010.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0621.7424.58-0.06-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0627.2735.02-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0619.0522.37-0.06-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0634.7838.77-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0681.8281.490.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0675.0075.780.020.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0619.0525.52-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.000.0634.7835.20-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0645.8346.68-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0665.2260.580.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0652.3857.860.000.01
StanfordP120.050.0669.5768.290.020.02
AuburnSEC0.100.0556.5248.810.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.100.0536.3639.72-0.03-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.100.0583.3384.760.070.04
RiderMAAC0.050.0537.5038.52-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.0060.420.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0530.4326.44-0.04-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.058.3310.86-0.04-0.04
BucknellPat0.090.0573.9175.000.050.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0545.4545.70-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.058.7012.13-0.08-0.04
HartfordAE0.050.0517.3920.97-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0595.8392.570.000.05
Long IslandNEC0.090.0570.8371.050.040.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0513.6416.35-0.03-0.04
New HampshireAE0.050.0535.0038.58-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0544.0045.89-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0540.9139.56-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.090.0556.5255.950.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0566.6768.050.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0545.4544.66-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.090.0582.6184.570.060.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0545.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0327.7829.87-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0341.1842.61-0.01-0.00
MercerASun0.060.0370.8371.640.020.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0325.0023.75-0.03-0.02
North TexasSB0.060.0350.0050.010.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.480.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0373.9175.490.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0327.7829.58-0.03-0.01
Texas A&MB120.060.0352.3846.150.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0316.6723.02-0.04-0.02
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.980.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0345.4546.99-0.00-0.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0354.5556.090.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.61-0.03-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.930.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.24-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0317.3924.41-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.050.0368.1863.990.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.380.030.02
KansasB120.050.0378.2678.390.030.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0334.7833.43-0.02-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0359.0959.720.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0333.3337.25-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0380.7780.750.000.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0347.3752.87-0.000.00
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.050.0385.7182.180.040.02
SyracuseBE0.000.0395.8392.010.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0334.7834.61-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0369.5765.150.020.01
BrownIvy0.050.0327.2723.80-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0371.4366.600.020.01
ColgatePat0.050.0330.4329.50-0.02-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0390.4887.910.040.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0379.1780.100.030.02
LafayettePat0.050.0343.4842.95-0.01-0.00
Longwoodind0.050.0330.0027.84-0.02-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.000.0359.0957.280.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0368.0069.070.020.01
MemphisCUSA0.050.0369.5771.510.020.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0363.6456.710.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0326.0928.60-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.3846.680.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0369.5764.530.020.01
PennsylvaniaIvy0.050.0354.5556.840.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0372.2263.190.020.01