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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:268.1
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:89
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11114.00.01%
18-12121.40.08%
17-13135.50.19%
16-14161.50.61%
15-15179.51.71%
14-16199.93.85%
13-17219.57.09%
12-18237.211.63%
11-19255.416.27%
10-20272.517.62%
9-21287.916.12%
8-22301.212.21%
7-23312.37.33%
6-24322.73.49%
5-25330.91.25%
4-26337.50.46%
3-27341.70.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Akron (118.6)MACA67-57L0%0.0
11-14Rutgers (181.4)B10A70-38L0%0.0
11-17Coppin St. (329.3)MEACH80-56W100%0.0
11-20East Carolina (279.3)AmerA0-033%-5.3
11-24Central Connecticut (302.5)NECH0-069%6.0
11-29Arkansas St. (221.5)SBH0-048%-0.5
12-2Kent St. (87.0)MACA0-011%-14.8
12-6Western Michigan (150.2)MACA0-017%-11.4
12-19Niagara (180.5)MAACA0-026%-7.6
12-21Cincinnati (17.4)AmerA0-01%-29.4
12-23Toledo (81.7)MACH0-025%-8.0
12-29Michigan St. (23.7)B10A0-01%-28.4
1-1Youngstown St. (310.0)HorzH0-067%5.2
1-4Green Bay (236.8)HorzH0-048%-0.6
1-6Milwaukee (165.5)HorzH0-037%-4.0
1-10Detroit (277.7)HorzA0-041%-2.7
1-12Oakland (109.5)HorzA0-012%-14.1
1-15Northern Kentucky (98.6)HorzA0-013%-13.5
1-18IUPUI (279.8)HorzH0-061%3.2
1-20Illinois Chicago (229.5)HorzH0-044%-1.8
1-25Green Bay (236.8)HorzA0-029%-6.6
1-27Milwaukee (165.5)HorzA0-020%-10.0
2-1Wright St. (240.1)HorzH0-048%-0.5
2-3Northern Kentucky (98.6)HorzH0-027%-7.5
2-8IUPUI (279.8)HorzA0-041%-2.8
2-10Illinois Chicago (229.5)HorzA0-026%-7.8
2-14Detroit (277.7)HorzH0-061%3.3
2-16Oakland (109.5)HorzH0-025%-8.1
2-19Wright St. (240.1)HorzA0-029%-6.5
2-24Youngstown St. (310.0)HorzA0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz35.4226.3933.3334.07-11.81-8.41
OaklandHorz0.004.3666.6764.540.001.27
Wright St.Horz0.004.330.0039.740.00-0.89
DetroitHorz0.004.320.0027.780.00-1.92
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.30100.0059.160.000.79
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.300.0026.080.00-2.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.2750.0047.180.00-0.24
Green BayHorz0.004.270.0043.560.00-0.55
IUPUIHorz0.004.260.0030.830.00-1.63
Northern KentuckyHorz0.004.26100.0070.230.001.72
ToledoMAC0.001.99100.0063.760.000.55
Western MichiganMAC0.001.9533.3352.080.000.08
Kent St.MAC0.001.90100.0065.210.000.58
AkronMAC16.671.81100.0058.8516.670.32
RutgersB1016.671.81100.0045.0516.67-0.18
Coppin St.MEAC16.671.780.0023.61-16.67-0.94
East CarolinaAmer2.081.7833.3333.32-0.69-0.59
Michigan St.B100.001.7850.0077.060.000.96
Central ConnecticutNEC4.171.7525.0040.81-2.08-0.32
CincinnatiAmer2.081.72100.0081.752.081.09
Arkansas St.SB0.001.6733.3341.660.00-0.28
NiagaraMAAC0.001.6750.0051.090.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.38100.0050.450.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.31100.0053.280.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.2933.3345.540.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.26100.0039.920.00-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.000.26100.0061.010.000.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2366.6748.040.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.2333.3348.480.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.2066.6766.970.000.07
Fort WayneSum0.000.2066.6756.330.000.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.200.0048.610.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.20100.0057.270.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1833.3357.840.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1850.0050.670.000.00
IndianaB100.000.1733.3341.220.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1733.3331.290.00-0.06
PurdueB100.000.15100.0085.360.000.10
ConnecticutAmer0.000.14100.0056.360.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1233.3336.610.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3341.010.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.12100.0038.710.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.120.0028.720.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1225.0059.770.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1275.0071.560.000.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0066.530.000.04
MichiganB100.000.12100.0061.710.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0048.690.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.1166.6753.670.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.110.0029.620.00-0.05
SMUAmer0.000.11100.0076.260.000.06
South FloridaAmer0.000.1166.6728.760.00-0.05
Wichita St.Amer0.000.11100.0082.290.000.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.110.0021.590.00-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1133.3346.330.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1166.6754.900.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.11100.0059.240.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.110.0036.070.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6753.390.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.090.0052.900.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0051.080.000.00
UCLAP120.000.09100.0064.910.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0018.400.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.09100.0056.600.000.01
TroySB0.000.0933.3346.410.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.09100.0054.140.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.09100.0061.780.000.02
MarylandB100.000.09100.0071.740.000.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0966.6759.540.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.080.0057.520.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0049.250.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.080.0025.140.00-0.04
MinnesotaB100.000.08100.0071.700.000.04
NebraskaB100.000.0866.6740.070.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.08100.0059.870.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.080.007.670.00-0.07
Penn St.B100.000.08100.0060.400.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0866.6748.280.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.080.0042.850.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.080.0030.230.00-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.080.0044.950.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.08100.0082.910.000.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0833.3359.680.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.08100.0062.240.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.080.0050.360.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0825.0047.800.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0052.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0031.810.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.06100.0071.010.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.06100.0041.780.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC4.170.0625.0050.07-2.080.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
ButlerBE0.000.0675.0052.360.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.700.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.060.0024.970.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.06100.0064.470.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0065.140.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.170.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0650.0059.190.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0633.3350.350.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0633.3338.880.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0666.6767.630.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.060.0034.600.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.060.0047.400.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3334.680.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.06100.0055.280.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0633.3348.640.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0533.3326.430.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.050.0035.450.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.050.0048.070.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0525.0045.730.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0533.3335.150.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.050.0042.810.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.050.0023.260.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.050.0037.310.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.050.0034.040.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.050.0030.910.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0066.710.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0566.6749.940.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0038.990.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
USCP120.000.03100.0073.190.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0375.0058.930.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0036.830.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.910.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.030.0045.640.00-0.00
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.03100.0051.900.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.770.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.960.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0333.3346.090.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.03100.0071.560.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.030.0021.380.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.030.0044.500.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0042.160.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.030.0048.110.00-0.00
NJITASun0.000.0333.3333.210.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0044.130.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.03100.0039.270.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0350.0052.870.000.00
OregonP122.080.03100.0076.202.080.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0366.6771.200.000.01