live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:126.5
Current RPI:128
Expected SOS:136
Current SOS:135
Current Record:15-13
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:11-5
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:5.44%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:67



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13126.5100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iona (51.0)MAACA78-73L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville St. (303.0)OVCH60-46W100%0.0
11-22Savannah St. (320.3)MEACA87-83L0%0.0
11-26Louisville (15.8)ACCA45-33L0%0.0
11-28Marshall (289.5)CUSAA59-68W100%0.0
12-3Toledo (74.8)MACH54-59L0%0.0
12-7Western Illinois (328.7)SumH76-54W100%0.0
12-13Bowling Green (90.8)MACA67-57L0%0.0
12-18Virginia (3.5)ACCA70-54L0%0.0
12-21San Francisco (196.1)WCCH69-65W100%0.0
12-23Eastern Illinois (170.4)OVCH65-67L0%0.0
12-29VCU (19.5)A10A72-63L0%0.0
1-2Milwaukee (208.6)HorzH84-57W100%0.0
1-4Illinois Chicago (305.3)HorzA69-74W100%0.0
1-8Oakland (130.8)HorzH65-61W100%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (64.6)HorzA58-56L0%0.0
1-14Wright St. (263.1)HorzA50-55W100%0.0
1-17Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzA61-74W100%0.0
1-23Detroit (199.2)HorzH70-66W100%0.0
1-26Oakland (130.8)HorzA59-56L0%0.0
1-31Green Bay (60.7)HorzH76-62W100%0.0
2-4Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzH73-60W100%0.0
2-7Wright St. (263.1)HorzH88-72W100%0.0
2-13Detroit (199.2)HorzA66-65L0%0.0
2-15Illinois Chicago (305.3)HorzH67-59W100%0.0
2-20Green Bay (60.7)HorzA61-66W100%0.0
2-22Milwaukee (208.6)HorzA66-60L0%0.0
2-27Valparaiso (64.6)HorzH53-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.3726.3656.0356.033.183.18
DetroitHorz4.574.5642.8642.86-0.65-0.65
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.544.5425.0025.00-2.27-2.27
Wright St.Horz4.534.5333.3333.33-1.51-1.51
Youngstown St.Horz4.504.5029.6329.63-1.83-1.83
OaklandHorz4.474.4748.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Green BayHorz4.434.4380.7780.772.732.73
MilwaukeeHorz4.434.4342.3142.31-0.68-0.68
ValparaisoHorz4.434.4380.7780.772.732.73
ToledoMAC1.971.9762.0761.760.480.46
LouisvilleACC1.911.9478.5777.031.091.05
Bowling GreenMAC1.941.9469.2367.600.740.68
Jacksonville St.OVC1.921.9135.7135.71-0.55-0.55
MarshallCUSA1.881.8834.6232.79-0.58-0.65
Savannah St.MEAC1.881.8823.0824.75-1.01-0.95
VirginiaACC1.851.8796.4395.111.721.69
Western IllinoisSum1.851.8525.0025.00-0.92-0.92
VCUA101.851.8471.4371.090.790.78
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.821.8250.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC1.791.7976.6776.670.950.95
San FranciscoWCC1.791.7942.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Morehead St.OVC0.250.2544.8344.83-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.250.2564.2964.290.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.250.2465.5265.390.080.07
Ball St.MAC0.220.2222.2223.22-0.12-0.12
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.2153.8553.590.010.02
South DakotaSum0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1953.5753.570.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.190.1962.9662.960.050.05
Georgia St.SB0.190.1967.8668.270.070.07
AkronMAC0.190.1958.6257.940.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.1918.5217.91-0.12-0.12
Miami FLACC0.190.1862.0761.970.050.04
Murray St.OVC0.160.1685.7185.710.110.11
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1659.2659.260.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1544.4444.64-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.160.1541.3841.54-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.160.1540.7440.34-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1576.0075.230.080.08
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1557.1456.690.020.02
PittsburghACC0.150.1562.0761.400.040.03
George MasonA100.120.1529.6328.86-0.05-0.06
IPFWSum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1340.7440.74-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.130.1389.6687.990.100.10
PortlandWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.130.1339.2940.08-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1228.5728.70-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
DePaulBE0.120.1240.0039.59-0.02-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1261.5458.940.030.02
DaytonA100.120.1279.3178.650.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1256.6757.720.020.02
ClemsonACC0.120.1255.1753.700.010.01
UCFAmer0.120.1240.7440.68-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.120.1272.4171.810.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.120.1244.8343.31-0.01-0.02
PacificWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1076.9277.690.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0957.6958.440.010.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0953.8553.850.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0979.3178.090.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.060.0968.9769.160.020.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0951.8551.850.000.00
OhioMAC0.100.0932.1432.89-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0925.0026.97-0.05-0.04
MarylandB100.090.0983.3382.770.060.06
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.090.0972.4172.030.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0978.5779.280.040.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.0060.240.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.090.0970.3771.010.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0933.3333.10-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0976.9276.720.030.05
DukeACC0.090.0989.6688.420.070.07
George WashingtonA100.090.0962.0762.660.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.090.0970.0069.540.040.03
DenverSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0760.8761.600.010.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0758.6256.800.010.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0780.0079.430.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0642.8642.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0635.4836.31-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.060.0637.9337.48-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0640.7440.41-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.063.574.54-0.03-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0653.8555.440.000.01
MaineAE0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.060.0627.5927.74-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.2848.80-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0625.0024.22-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0659.2658.600.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.6958.370.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.0029.86-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.9768.280.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0657.1457.240.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0689.6689.940.050.05
BYUWCC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0625.9325.32-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0644.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0624.0024.99-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.3393.330.050.05
Iowa St.B120.060.0672.4172.010.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0665.5265.430.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0671.4371.430.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0668.9768.960.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0642.8643.44-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0663.3362.760.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0638.4639.08-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0646.1544.41-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0651.7252.550.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0650.0050.330.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0646.4347.81-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0650.0048.760.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0678.5778.540.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0625.9327.35-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0689.6689.660.050.05
YaleIvy0.060.0670.3768.760.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0637.9338.69-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.980.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.060.0651.7251.450.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0682.7681.290.020.04
SyracuseACC0.060.0660.0059.110.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.060.0658.6257.150.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
RichmondA100.060.0658.6259.660.010.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0635.7134.54-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.040.0444.0044.87-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.040.0428.5730.86-0.02-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0459.2659.260.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0343.3342.98-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.4443.51-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0328.5729.92-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.2222.87-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.76-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0348.1548.07-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0350.0048.800.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0372.4171.340.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0324.1423.69-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.030.0348.1548.97-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0342.3142.08-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.23-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.4346.73-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0346.1547.13-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0369.2369.520.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.7160.860.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0331.8231.52-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.8676.590.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0350.0050.780.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0326.9225.64-0.02-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.1547.41-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0351.7249.590.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0049.000.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0332.0031.15-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.34-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0326.9226.01-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0353.5754.400.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.240.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0344.0045.87-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0373.3373.220.020.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0375.0075.310.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0333.3332.69-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0324.1423.75-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0334.6233.87-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.7731.66-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.0099.900.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.02-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0337.5039.77-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.1456.740.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0353.5754.710.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.91-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.810.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0048.850.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0393.3393.160.030.02
WoffordSC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02