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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:278.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:143
Current Record:7-23
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:4-15
Expected Conf Record:4-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:33



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-23278.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Akron (34.0)MACN65-53L0%0.0
11-21Rhode Island (119.0)A10A73-45L0%0.0
11-24Rider (242.0)MAACN57-52W100%0.0
11-25South Dakota St. (29.0)SumN77-66L0%0.0
11-28Maryland (14.0)B10A80-63L0%0.0
12-2Toledo (182.0)MACA76-65L0%0.0
12-5Kent St. (124.0)MACH62-66L0%0.0
12-12Ohio (81.0)MACH67-76L0%0.0
12-16Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA54-60W100%0.0
12-19Belmont (98.0)OVCH67-65W100%0.0
12-23Bowling Green (200.0)MACH47-62L0%0.0
1-2Oakland (116.0)HorzA86-68L0%0.0
1-4Detroit (204.0)HorzA88-80L0%0.0
1-7Green Bay (112.0)HorzH67-87L0%0.0
1-9Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH62-65L0%0.0
1-14Wright St. (146.0)HorzA70-53L0%0.0
1-16Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA65-70W100%0.0
1-18Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH70-53W100%0.0
1-24Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH55-70L0%0.0
1-28Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA77-52L0%0.0
1-30Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA72-70L0%0.0
2-4Detroit (204.0)HorzH63-71L0%0.0
2-6Oakland (116.0)HorzH57-67L0%0.0
2-13Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA59-64W100%0.0
2-16Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH43-66L0%0.0
2-20Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA88-54L0%0.0
2-22Green Bay (112.0)HorzA78-61L0%0.0
2-25Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH63-58W100%0.0
2-27Wright St. (146.0)HorzH51-55L0%0.0
3-5Green Bay (112.0)HorzN65-53L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.4126.4123.3323.33-14.08-14.08
Green BayHorz6.106.1060.0060.001.221.22
Wright St.Horz4.544.5458.0658.060.730.73
ValparaisoHorz4.424.4278.5778.572.532.53
DetroitHorz4.424.4244.4444.44-0.49-0.49
MilwaukeeHorz4.404.4055.1755.170.460.46
Youngstown St.Horz4.404.4028.5728.57-1.89-1.89
OaklandHorz4.354.3563.3363.331.161.16
Northern KentuckyHorz4.334.3326.9226.92-2.00-2.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.334.337.697.69-3.66-3.66
ToledoMAC2.132.1350.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC2.072.0741.9441.94-0.33-0.33
AkronMAC1.951.9575.0075.000.980.98
Kent St.MAC1.931.9356.6756.670.260.26
OhioMAC1.851.8563.3363.330.490.49
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.781.7846.6746.67-0.12-0.12
BelmontOVC1.781.7865.5265.520.550.55
Rhode IslandA101.771.7751.6151.610.060.06
RiderMAAC1.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
MarylandB101.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
South Dakota St.Sum1.671.6776.6776.670.890.89
Northern IllinoisMAC0.350.3558.6258.620.060.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.350.3548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.320.3257.5857.580.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.310.3137.5037.50-0.08-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
Western MichiganMAC0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.180.183.453.45-0.17-0.17
WisconsinB100.180.1862.5062.500.050.05
MichiganB100.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1429.1729.17-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
LipscombASun0.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1111.1111.11-0.09-0.09
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
AmericanPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
PacificWCC0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
IUPUISum0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01