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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:322.1
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:263
Current SOS:267
Current Record:4-16
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:194



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17237.00.01%
12-18250.30.10%
11-19267.80.64%
10-20283.93.02%
9-21298.29.94%
8-22312.320.09%
7-23324.428.80%
6-24333.523.75%
5-25340.411.58%
4-26344.62.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Akron (213.7)MACA67-57L0%0.0
11-14Rutgers (185.2)B10A70-38L0%0.0
11-17Coppin St. (342.3)MEACH80-56W100%0.0
11-20East Carolina (279.3)AmerA72-69L0%0.0
11-24Central Connecticut (253.7)NECH73-74L0%0.0
11-29Arkansas St. (290.5)SBH75-72W100%0.0
12-2Kent St. (186.5)MACA72-62L0%0.0
12-6Western Michigan (163.5)MACA78-67L0%0.0
12-19Niagara (187.6)MAACA79-77L0%0.0
12-21Cincinnati (11.3)AmerA81-62L0%0.0
12-23Toledo (70.7)MACH62-77L0%0.0
12-29Michigan St. (21.2)B10A111-61L0%0.0
1-1Youngstown St. (314.8)HorzH77-80L0%0.0
1-4Green Bay (324.7)HorzH80-79W100%0.0
1-6Milwaukee (243.0)HorzH63-67L0%0.0
1-10Detroit (297.0)HorzA85-84L0%0.0
1-12Oakland (137.7)HorzA81-68L0%0.0
1-15Northern Kentucky (88.6)HorzA70-55L0%0.0
1-18IUPUI (300.2)HorzH70-67W100%0.0
1-20Illinois Chicago (260.6)HorzH80-87L0%0.0
1-25Green Bay (324.7)HorzA0-035%-4.2
1-27Milwaukee (243.0)HorzA0-025%-7.6
2-1Wright St. (110.7)HorzH0-028%-6.5
2-3Northern Kentucky (88.6)HorzH0-013%-12.5
2-8IUPUI (300.2)HorzA0-036%-3.9
2-10Illinois Chicago (260.6)HorzA0-024%-7.8
2-14Detroit (297.0)HorzH0-060%2.7
2-16Oakland (137.7)HorzH0-025%-7.7
2-19Wright St. (110.7)HorzA0-012%-12.8
2-24Youngstown St. (314.8)HorzA0-043%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.3126.3815.0021.90-18.42-14.82
OaklandHorz3.104.3560.0063.610.621.18
DetroitHorz3.034.3216.6722.71-2.02-2.36
Wright St.Horz0.664.3268.4268.460.241.59
MilwaukeeHorz3.034.2942.1144.04-0.48-0.51
Youngstown St.Horz2.954.2916.6719.41-1.97-2.62
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.894.2638.8942.86-0.64-0.61
Green BayHorz3.034.2626.3227.60-1.43-1.91
Northern KentuckyHorz2.894.2664.7171.680.851.85
IUPUIHorz2.954.2529.4129.68-1.22-1.73
ToledoMAC2.841.9864.7166.580.840.66
Western MichiganMAC2.901.9550.0050.530.000.02
Kent St.MAC2.711.9041.1842.95-0.48-0.27
AkronMAC2.641.8143.7542.94-0.33-0.26
RutgersB102.811.8055.5645.310.31-0.17
Coppin St.MEAC2.761.7810.0018.54-2.21-1.12
Michigan St.B102.691.7884.2182.611.841.16
East CarolinaAmer2.751.7838.8930.07-0.61-0.71
Central ConnecticutNEC2.691.7550.0046.800.00-0.11
CincinnatiAmer2.631.7288.8985.042.041.21
Arkansas St.SB2.501.6729.4132.23-1.03-0.59
NiagaraMAAC2.501.6755.0051.670.250.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.390.3741.1839.13-0.07-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.260.3146.6746.98-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.140.2961.1158.750.030.05
Miami OHMAC0.140.2647.0641.45-0.01-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.340.2572.2274.900.150.13
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.2358.8249.760.02-0.00
OhioMAC0.200.2247.0648.44-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.200.2077.7871.650.110.09
WisconsinB100.190.2050.0046.260.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.260.2052.6351.700.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.140.2062.5058.700.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.200.1877.7879.160.110.10
MemphisAmer0.140.1765.0058.490.040.03
DePaulBE0.250.1742.1134.32-0.04-0.05
IndianaB100.200.1757.8950.680.030.00
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1652.6347.390.01-0.01
PurdueB100.140.1490.4888.380.110.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1229.4133.94-0.05-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1223.5328.70-0.07-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1242.8635.25-0.02-0.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1271.4374.650.050.06
Appalachian St.SB0.150.1133.3337.22-0.05-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.1133.3333.80-0.02-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.1170.5975.930.030.06
IonaMAAC0.130.1163.1666.880.030.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.110.009.15-0.13-0.09
South FloridaAmer0.270.1135.0026.14-0.08-0.05
TulsaAmer0.140.1155.0053.290.010.01
MichiganB100.130.1175.0070.270.060.05
CanisiusMAAC0.070.1160.0060.340.010.02
FairfieldMAAC0.060.1138.8944.14-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.1178.9572.990.040.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1157.1460.400.020.02
SMUAmer0.070.1170.0070.630.030.05
Wichita St.Amer0.140.1178.9577.360.080.06
IllinoisB100.000.1147.3744.270.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.0910.0019.62-0.10-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.0972.2258.940.060.02
UMBCAE0.130.0958.8258.360.020.01
Saint LouisA100.140.0947.3746.91-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.070.0935.2942.76-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0950.0051.650.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0852.6343.120.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.085.8819.37-0.11-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.130.0843.7554.09-0.020.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0863.1657.900.000.01
UCLAP120.130.0865.0062.040.040.02
Chicago St.WAC0.130.080.003.12-0.13-0.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.180.0855.5656.710.020.01
TempleAmer0.070.0852.6351.730.000.00
UCFAmer0.130.0868.4260.880.050.02
NebraskaB100.060.0866.6759.780.020.02
Ohio St.B100.130.0880.9576.520.080.04
BryantNEC0.130.089.5217.08-0.10-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.0823.5332.62-0.10-0.03
KansasB120.130.0884.2179.740.090.05
MarylandB100.060.0870.0065.320.030.02
Penn St.B100.060.0861.9055.770.010.01
SyracuseACC0.130.0868.4261.270.050.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.130.0821.0544.26-0.07-0.01
MinnesotaB100.130.0863.6457.640.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.0818.7536.76-0.12-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.120.0842.1144.97-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.190.0827.7834.50-0.08-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.120.0852.9459.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0665.0057.870.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0636.8432.79-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0650.0042.180.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0631.5832.72-0.03-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.25-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6763.200.020.02
StetsonASun0.060.0633.3336.92-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.980.030.02
VermontAE0.070.0673.6877.120.030.03
ButlerBE0.070.0666.6763.070.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.130.00-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0621.4326.21-0.04-0.03
ElonCAA0.060.0652.6351.090.000.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0635.2935.57-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0641.1843.410.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0666.6765.360.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.070.0666.6765.530.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0661.1147.260.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.950.030.02
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.26-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.350.050.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0626.6729.04-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0670.0068.420.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.150.0661.1151.900.030.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.360.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0641.1838.46-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.0626.3231.52-0.07-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.50-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0668.4257.780.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.140.0668.4263.640.050.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.060.0010.65-0.14-0.04
HowardMEAC0.070.0610.5327.31-0.05-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.0660.0062.030.030.01
CornellIvy0.130.0533.3333.36-0.04-0.02
HartfordAE0.130.0552.6346.880.01-0.00
IowaB100.070.0547.6244.03-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0555.0050.370.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.130.0538.8946.68-0.03-0.00
XavierBE0.140.0585.7180.080.100.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0550.0052.440.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0520.0041.760.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0540.0042.57-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0547.3748.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0521.0521.99-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0527.7840.88-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0529.4139.62-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0537.5045.22-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0530.0032.53-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0531.5830.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0530.0033.490.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0544.4448.91-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0527.7831.670.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0533.3335.19-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.060.0563.1666.000.020.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0564.7164.540.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.620.000.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.63-0.03-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0322.2228.59-0.04-0.01
DavidsonA100.070.0358.8261.440.010.01
DaytonA100.070.0347.3750.95-0.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.360.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.12-0.02-0.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0364.7166.850.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.270.000.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0361.1160.790.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0350.0045.900.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0357.8950.210.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
USCP120.070.0371.4368.300.030.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0370.0068.050.030.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.610.030.01
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.06-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.60-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.180.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.810.010.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.780.020.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.040.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0350.0051.360.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0310.5316.75-0.05-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0316.6724.29-0.04-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0330.0036.48-0.03-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0361.1160.530.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0368.4255.060.020.00
BrownIvy0.060.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.060.0380.9576.230.040.01
DukeACC0.060.0389.4785.190.050.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.550.030.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0368.4254.090.020.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0310.5314.86-0.05-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
NavyPat0.060.0360.0055.160.010.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0329.4138.15-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0380.0075.050.040.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0331.5835.15-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0363.1661.050.020.01
OregonP120.060.0365.0063.830.020.01
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.35-0.02-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0365.0065.370.020.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0330.0031.69-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0337.5033.78-0.02-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0366.6768.700.020.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.060.0329.4130.67-0.02-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0384.2178.170.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0338.8935.35-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.010.00