live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:272.4
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:146
Current Record:5-17
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:12



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18207.70.07%
10-19223.20.64%
9-20238.84.95%
8-21254.518.74%
7-22270.334.15%
6-23284.131.11%
5-24296.410.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Akron (37.6)MACN65-53L0%0.0
11-21Rhode Island (103.6)A10A73-45L0%0.0
11-24Rider (218.6)MAACN57-52W100%0.0
11-25South Dakota St. (42.8)SumN77-66L0%0.0
11-28Maryland (8.2)B10A80-63L0%0.0
12-2Toledo (162.3)MACA76-65L0%0.0
12-5Kent St. (105.8)MACH62-66L0%0.0
12-12Ohio (117.9)MACH67-76L0%0.0
12-16Loyola Chicago (257.7)MVCA54-60W100%0.0
12-19Belmont (68.5)OVCH67-65W100%0.0
12-23Bowling Green (186.0)MACH47-62L0%0.0
1-2Oakland (117.6)HorzA86-68L0%0.0
1-4Detroit (213.1)HorzA88-80L0%0.0
1-7Green Bay (156.5)HorzH67-87L0%0.0
1-9Milwaukee (158.7)HorzH62-65L0%0.0
1-14Wright St. (166.5)HorzA70-53L0%0.0
1-16Northern Kentucky (257.1)HorzA65-70W100%0.0
1-18Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzH70-53W100%0.0
1-24Youngstown St. (253.2)HorzH55-70L0%0.0
1-28Valparaiso (35.5)HorzA77-52L0%0.0
1-30Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzA72-70L0%0.0
2-4Detroit (213.1)HorzH63-71L0%0.0
2-6Oakland (117.6)HorzH0-018%-10.1
2-13Youngstown St. (253.2)HorzA0-042%-2.2
2-16Valparaiso (35.5)HorzH0-06%-16.9
2-20Milwaukee (158.7)HorzA0-011%-13.7
2-22Green Bay (156.5)HorzA0-012%-12.6
2-25Northern Kentucky (257.1)HorzH0-054%1.1
2-27Wright St. (166.5)HorzH0-035%-4.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.4126.4123.1523.02-14.18-14.25
ValparaisoHorz3.024.5180.0082.021.812.89
Youngstown St.Horz3.094.5128.5730.40-1.32-1.77
Green BayHorz2.984.4755.0055.220.300.47
DetroitHorz5.204.4738.8939.94-1.15-0.90
OaklandHorz2.994.4565.2265.660.911.40
Wright St.Horz3.054.4552.3853.170.150.28
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.084.440.003.80-5.08-4.10
Northern KentuckyHorz2.974.4431.5833.21-1.10-1.49
MilwaukeeHorz2.874.4260.0059.630.570.85
ToledoMAC2.862.2055.0056.100.290.27
Bowling GreenMAC2.652.1152.6347.040.14-0.12
AkronMAC2.441.9980.9579.071.511.16
Kent St.MAC2.491.9965.0060.360.750.41
OhioMAC2.541.9357.8956.460.400.25
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.501.8542.8640.62-0.36-0.35
BelmontOVC2.381.8472.7372.531.080.83
Rhode IslandA102.421.8452.3854.530.120.17
RiderMAAC2.371.7843.4844.96-0.31-0.18
MarylandB102.371.7886.3681.141.721.11
South Dakota St.Sum2.271.7275.0075.331.140.87
Northern IllinoisMAC0.390.3566.6760.120.130.07
Miami OHMAC0.270.3528.5728.88-0.12-0.15
Eastern MichiganMAC0.320.3238.8943.22-0.07-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.380.3250.0050.510.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.160.2957.1457.510.020.04
Ball St.MAC0.330.2661.9058.190.080.04
Western MichiganMAC0.270.2335.0036.57-0.08-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.330.1852.1747.620.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1852.3854.240.010.02
MichiganB100.160.1872.7367.980.070.06
South DakotaSum0.160.1839.1339.48-0.03-0.04
WisconsinB100.160.1860.8755.900.030.02
Chicago St.WAC0.160.174.557.91-0.14-0.15
IonaMAAC0.250.1759.0959.680.050.03
Western IllinoisSum0.230.1627.7829.23-0.10-0.06
DrakeMVC0.230.1522.7324.85-0.12-0.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.160.1538.1042.99-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.220.1545.0049.60-0.02-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.160.1547.6252.92-0.010.01
Notre DameACC0.160.1568.1863.720.060.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1518.1822.83-0.10-0.08
LipscombASun0.200.1521.7427.64-0.12-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1475.0073.480.080.07
UCFAmer0.230.1355.0047.170.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1340.9143.01-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1214.2916.31-0.12-0.08
XavierBE0.110.1290.9184.430.090.08
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1226.0930.33-0.08-0.05
DenverSum0.160.1252.1748.790.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.110.1273.9170.210.050.05
MinnesotaB100.110.1226.0927.81-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1254.5555.310.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1240.9138.03-0.02-0.03
PurdueB100.050.1282.6178.230.030.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1225.0029.29-0.08-0.05
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1225.0025.48-0.05-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1225.0029.52-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0938.1047.51-0.03-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.0947.6247.96-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.120.0947.8344.51-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.170.0980.0070.290.100.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.0970.0068.920.060.03
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0973.9176.040.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.110.0944.4446.94-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0965.0060.810.030.02
AmericanPat0.100.0931.8232.71-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0966.6758.760.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0936.3635.33-0.01-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.160.0947.8350.56-0.010.00
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0841.6743.85-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.100.0882.6181.380.060.05
MaristMAAC0.100.0819.0521.40-0.06-0.05
La SalleA100.100.0821.0520.91-0.06-0.05
DePaulBE0.120.0636.3634.95-0.03-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.110.0647.8348.69-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.120.0652.3848.890.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0659.0962.730.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0681.8278.720.040.04
IUPUISum0.050.0641.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0659.0959.470.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0661.9060.410.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.110.0668.4271.820.040.03
BradleyMVC0.050.068.709.77-0.04-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0630.0028.61-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0657.1457.930.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0046.870.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0661.1158.300.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.5552.750.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0626.0925.56-0.02-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0672.7369.690.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0652.1754.140.000.00
OregonP120.050.0681.8278.210.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0660.0054.590.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0621.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0631.8232.32-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0652.6347.690.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0666.6765.410.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0676.1979.640.030.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0655.5650.840.010.00
TCUB120.110.0645.4537.84-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0640.0049.74-0.02-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.110.0670.0069.070.040.02
NorthwesternB100.100.0666.6763.480.030.02
Ohio St.B100.100.0658.3354.120.020.00
Penn St.B100.100.0647.8343.63-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.0628.5734.73-0.05-0.02
NebraskaB100.100.0652.1751.560.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.100.0670.5974.500.040.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0633.3333.55-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0633.3334.18-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0622.7326.19-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0685.7181.220.000.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0652.1752.980.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0657.8954.300.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0660.0056.080.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.0043.19-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0642.8639.84-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0679.1780.770.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.100.0678.2671.960.060.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0638.1037.53-0.02-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.0681.8277.440.070.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0638.1041.92-0.02-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0666.6767.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0681.8276.020.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0668.1862.190.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0330.0034.84-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0352.1750.240.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0321.7424.60-0.03-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0369.5773.030.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0373.9173.090.030.01
CreightonBE0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0368.1863.250.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0350.0056.540.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0322.7324.28-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0365.2256.530.020.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0333.3329.23-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0335.0034.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0345.4547.97-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0363.6459.950.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0347.8343.92-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.060.0320.8325.01-0.03-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0363.6465.480.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0314.2913.97-0.04-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.440.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.5253.460.010.00
IndianaB100.000.0382.6177.370.000.02
IowaB100.050.0381.8279.900.030.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0327.2732.84-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0341.6746.85-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0352.1754.520.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.3680.660.040.02
RutgersB100.050.0322.7320.68-0.03-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.58-0.03-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0390.4885.550.040.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0054.850.000.00
BrownIvy0.050.0333.3331.83-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.7922.51-0.04-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0357.8955.400.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0377.2771.670.030.01
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.47-0.02-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0340.9139.70-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0372.7368.010.020.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0321.0529.16-0.03-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0354.5561.950.000.01
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.680.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0377.2776.780.000.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0386.3685.330.040.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0361.9063.360.010.01