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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:91.0
Current RPI:91
Expected SOS:143
Current SOS:143
Current Record:19-11
Expected Record:19-11
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1191.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Iona (59.0)MAACH73-69W100%0.0
11-13San Francisco (68.0)WCCA91-82L0%0.0
11-15UT Arlington (199.0)SBA73-83W100%0.0
11-18Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA81-69L0%0.0
11-23Robert Morris (129.0)NECH87-74W100%0.0
11-25Kentucky (17.0)SECA68-61L0%0.0
11-30Ball St. (309.0)MACH78-55W100%0.0
12-4Drexel (132.0)CAAA85-82L0%0.0
12-7Akron (93.0)MACH61-73L0%0.0
12-16Western Carolina (221.0)SCH66-55W100%0.0
12-21Toledo (38.0)MACA71-67L0%0.0
12-28Kent St. (213.0)MACA70-78W100%0.0
1-2Green Bay (58.0)HorzA66-55L0%0.0
1-4Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA49-77W100%0.0
1-8Detroit (230.0)HorzH73-63W100%0.0
1-13Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA67-66L0%0.0
1-16Oakland (181.0)HorzH86-76W100%0.0
1-19Wright St. (173.0)HorzH46-49L0%0.0
1-22UIC (315.0)HorzA64-74W100%0.0
1-25Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH69-50W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA68-82W100%0.0
1-31Detroit (230.0)HorzA78-86W100%0.0
2-6Oakland (181.0)HorzA85-92W100%0.0
2-8Wright St. (173.0)HorzA68-72W100%0.0
2-13UIC (315.0)HorzH73-53W100%0.0
2-15Green Bay (58.0)HorzH54-68L0%0.0
2-22Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH74-50W100%0.0
2-25Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH70-69W100%0.0
3-1Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA52-63W100%0.0
3-8Wright St. (173.0)HorzN63-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.3726.3766.4366.438.668.66
Wright St.Horz5.955.9555.1755.170.620.62
MilwaukeeHorz4.424.4264.5264.521.281.28
OaklandHorz4.354.3537.9337.93-1.05-1.05
ValparaisoHorz4.304.3053.5753.570.310.31
DetroitHorz4.294.2939.2939.29-0.92-0.92
Youngstown St.Horz4.264.2640.7440.74-0.79-0.79
UICHorz4.244.2414.8114.81-2.99-2.99
Green BayHorz4.234.2376.0076.002.202.20
Eastern MichiganMAC2.072.0754.8454.840.200.20
ToledoMAC1.991.9980.6580.651.221.22
AkronMAC1.911.9162.5062.500.480.48
Ball St.MAC1.901.9011.1111.11-1.48-1.48
Kent St.MAC1.881.8850.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC1.881.8863.6463.640.510.51
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Western CarolinaSC1.771.7753.3353.330.120.12
KentuckySEC1.741.7469.7069.700.690.69
UT ArlingtonSB1.741.7444.8344.83-0.18-0.18
DrexelCAA1.671.6751.7251.720.060.06
IonaMAAC1.671.6770.9770.970.700.70
San FranciscoWCC1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
OhioMAC0.380.3866.6766.670.130.13
Bowling GreenMAC0.370.3735.4835.48-0.11-0.11
Western MichiganMAC0.320.3270.9770.970.130.13
Northern IllinoisMAC0.320.3245.1645.16-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.290.2964.2964.290.080.08
Miami OHMAC0.290.2943.3343.33-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.270.2727.5927.59-0.12-0.12
James MadisonCAA0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.190.1928.5728.57-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.190.1934.4834.48-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.120.1259.2659.260.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
WagnerNEC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1114.8114.81-0.07-0.07
NiagaraMAAC0.110.1121.2121.21-0.06-0.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
SamfordSC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00