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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:127.0
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:135
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-3
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:201
Expected OOC SOS:88



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14127.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iona (51.0)MAACA78-73L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH60-46W100%0.0
11-22Savannah St. (331.0)MEACA87-83L0%0.0
11-26Louisville (21.0)ACCA45-33L0%0.0
11-28Marshall (296.0)CUSAA59-68W100%0.0
12-3Toledo (79.0)MACH54-59L0%0.0
12-7Western Illinois (328.0)SumH76-54W100%0.0
12-13Bowling Green (109.0)MACA67-57L0%0.0
12-18Virginia (7.0)ACCA70-54L0%0.0
12-21San Francisco (181.0)WCCH69-65W100%0.0
12-23Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH65-67L0%0.0
12-29VCU (15.0)A10A72-63L0%0.0
1-2Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH84-57W100%0.0
1-4Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA69-74W100%0.0
1-8Oakland (155.0)HorzH65-61W100%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA58-56L0%0.0
1-14Wright St. (264.0)HorzA50-55W100%0.0
1-17Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA61-74W100%0.0
1-23Detroit (205.0)HorzH70-66W100%0.0
1-26Oakland (155.0)HorzA59-56L0%0.0
1-31Green Bay (54.0)HorzH76-62W100%0.0
2-4Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH73-60W100%0.0
2-7Wright St. (264.0)HorzH88-72W100%0.0
2-13Detroit (205.0)HorzA66-65L0%0.0
2-15Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH67-59W100%0.0
2-20Green Bay (54.0)HorzA61-66W100%0.0
2-22Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA66-60L0%0.0
2-27Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH53-56L0%0.0
3-6Detroit (205.0)HorzN70-53W100%0.0
3-7Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA60-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz26.4926.4956.4556.453.423.42
DetroitHorz5.955.9542.8642.86-0.85-0.85
ValparaisoHorz5.895.8981.4881.483.713.71
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.434.4326.6726.67-2.07-2.07
Green BayHorz4.364.3678.5778.572.492.49
OaklandHorz4.304.3046.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Youngstown St.Horz4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
Wright St.Horz4.304.3033.3333.33-1.43-1.43
MilwaukeeHorz4.224.2242.3142.31-0.65-0.65
ToledoMAC1.851.8559.3859.380.350.35
Bowling GreenMAC1.831.8365.5265.520.570.57
LouisvilleACC1.801.8074.1974.190.870.87
Jacksonville St.OVC1.781.7835.7135.71-0.51-0.51
MarshallCUSA1.751.7531.0331.03-0.66-0.66
Savannah St.MEAC1.751.7521.4321.43-1.00-1.00
VirginiaACC1.741.7490.3290.321.411.41
Western IllinoisSum1.721.7224.0024.00-0.89-0.89
VCUA101.721.7273.5373.530.810.81
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.701.7050.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC1.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
San FranciscoWCC1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
BelmontOVC0.250.2567.7467.740.090.09
Ball St.MAC0.250.2520.6920.69-0.14-0.14
Eastern MichiganMAC0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.2060.7160.710.040.04
South DakotaSum0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1738.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.170.1783.3383.330.110.11
DrakeMVC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Georgia St.SB0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
AkronMAC0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Miami FLACC0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1671.4371.430.070.07
IPFWSum0.150.1548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
FIUCUSA0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
PortlandWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
PittsburghACC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
OregonP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
George MasonA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
IUPUISum0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.090.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
James MadisonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1165.5265.520.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
MontanaBSky0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0975.8675.860.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.080.0810.0010.00-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
George WashingtonA100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
DuquesneA100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0290.9190.910.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02