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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Cleveland St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:144.9
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:131
Current SOS:68
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:74



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-845.50.02%
20-953.40.24%
19-1068.71.17%
18-1183.34.06%
17-1298.59.03%
16-13115.214.85%
15-14132.419.86%
14-15151.019.25%
13-16170.515.04%
12-17190.99.49%
11-18211.54.48%
10-19232.11.74%
9-20255.10.62%
8-21269.50.13%
7-22282.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cleveland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Iona (79.7)MAACA78-73L0%0.0
11-19Jacksonville St. (264.1)OVCH60-46W100%0.0
11-22Savannah St. (320.4)MEACA87-83L0%0.0
11-26Louisville (7.1)ACCA45-33L0%0.0
11-28Marshall (214.1)CUSAA59-68W100%0.0
12-3Toledo (104.9)MACH54-59L0%0.0
12-7Western Illinois (294.7)SumH76-54W100%0.0
12-13Bowling Green (92.5)MACA67-57L0%0.0
12-18Virginia (7.3)ACCA70-54L0%0.0
12-21San Francisco (123.6)WCCH0-054%1.2
12-23Eastern Illinois (266.0)OVCH0-086%12.8
12-29VCU (25.9)A10A0-015%-12.1
1-2Milwaukee (259.0)HorzH0-083%11.4
1-4Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzA0-071%6.6
1-8Oakland (233.6)HorzH0-083%11.1
1-10Valparaiso (100.6)HorzA0-029%-6.7
1-14Wright St. (112.2)HorzA0-036%-4.3
1-17Youngstown St. (214.7)HorzA0-053%0.9
1-23Detroit (156.8)HorzH0-068%5.5
1-26Oakland (233.6)HorzA0-058%2.4
1-31Green Bay (43.7)HorzH0-042%-2.5
2-4Youngstown St. (214.7)HorzH0-079%9.6
2-7Wright St. (112.2)HorzH0-065%4.4
2-13Detroit (156.8)HorzA0-039%-3.2
2-15Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzH0-090%15.4
2-17Western Carolina (247.3)SCA0-057%2.1
2-20Green Bay (43.7)HorzA0-017%-11.2
2-22Milwaukee (259.0)HorzA0-059%2.7
2-27Valparaiso (100.6)HorzH0-057%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cleveland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cleveland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cleveland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cleveland St.Horz27.7826.3637.1452.08-7.141.10
DetroitHorz0.624.3744.4449.06-0.07-0.08
OaklandHorz0.284.3630.0031.71-0.11-1.60
Wright St.Horz0.354.3660.0058.200.070.72
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.354.3418.1821.47-0.22-2.48
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.3033.3334.70-0.00-1.32
ValparaisoHorz0.004.3080.0070.580.001.77
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.3045.4544.86-0.00-0.44
Green BayHorz0.004.3075.0079.100.002.50
ToledoMAC5.561.9055.5658.070.620.31
Bowling GreenMAC5.561.8771.4366.382.380.61
LouisvilleACC6.461.87100.0084.846.461.30
Western CarolinaSC0.001.8520.0041.41-0.00-0.32
Jacksonville St.OVC6.461.8462.5039.981.62-0.37
MarshallCUSA6.431.8128.5740.31-2.75-0.35
Savannah St.MEAC6.521.8110.0025.35-5.22-0.89
VirginiaACC5.561.81100.0084.805.561.26
Western IllinoisSum5.561.7842.8633.28-0.79-0.60
VCUA100.561.7870.0070.970.220.75
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.7533.3339.96-0.00-0.35
IonaMAAC5.561.7262.5071.421.390.74
San FranciscoWCC0.001.7250.0054.130.000.14
Morehead St.OVC0.350.2418.1846.16-0.22-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.2460.0062.970.000.06
Kent St.MAC0.000.2471.4361.370.000.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.2262.5071.290.000.09
Chicago St.WAC0.280.210.0011.40-0.28-0.16
Ball St.MAC0.000.2128.5736.95-0.00-0.05
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.2171.4363.410.000.06
South DakotaSum0.000.1927.2738.97-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1944.4445.59-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.1842.8655.64-0.040.02
AkronMAC0.350.1860.0056.560.070.02
Miami FLACC0.250.1890.0075.520.200.09
DrakeMVC0.350.1620.0019.99-0.21-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1677.7871.110.000.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.1655.5661.790.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.160.0023.71-0.00-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1562.5066.700.000.05
Miami OHMAC0.000.1530.0028.50-0.00-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1550.0032.620.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.310.1544.4451.04-0.030.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1571.4363.890.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1585.7170.350.000.06
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1562.5054.980.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1525.0025.93-0.00-0.07
PittsburghACC0.000.1466.6752.340.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.1357.1456.900.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1320.0026.33-0.00-0.06
WisconsinB100.000.1390.9188.390.000.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.350.1244.4447.53-0.04-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1222.2241.92-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1275.0071.730.000.05
DePaulBE0.000.1260.0034.110.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1266.6748.410.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.1222.2237.75-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.280.120.0016.85-0.28-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.1220.0029.81-0.17-0.05
UCFAmer0.000.1255.5634.940.00-0.04
DaytonA100.350.1277.7870.120.190.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.1241.6744.33-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.350.1255.5649.500.04-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.1266.6745.670.00-0.01
OregonP120.280.1266.6758.060.090.02
Wake ForestACC0.310.1150.0038.000.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.350.0950.0038.180.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0922.2230.99-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0944.4470.08-0.000.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0049.620.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0942.8649.98-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0925.0052.09-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.810.0928.5747.31-0.35-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.280.0970.0060.790.110.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0944.4444.78-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.310.0977.7871.960.170.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0975.0069.120.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0966.6764.310.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0925.0033.17-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0942.8638.11-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.310.0990.0084.680.250.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.280.0930.0039.44-0.11-0.02
MarylandB100.280.0990.9167.660.230.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0988.8981.310.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5073.190.000.04
WoffordSC0.310.0977.7876.240.170.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.110.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0955.5638.130.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.08100.0087.140.000.06
DavidsonA100.000.0887.5077.020.000.05
George WashingtonA100.280.0866.6766.340.090.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0870.0071.630.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0750.0054.230.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0744.4455.75-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.400.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0762.5054.970.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.660.0633.3362.92-0.220.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0655.5659.990.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.26-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.020.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0620.0038.24-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.57-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0611.1121.08-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.600.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0677.7865.390.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0660.0064.620.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.660.060.0031.74-0.66-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.190.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.310.0633.3332.85-0.10-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.280.0650.0056.340.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0053.820.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.300.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0660.0064.610.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.710.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.59-0.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.0090.940.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.53-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8963.800.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.43-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0637.5042.45-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.150.000.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0660.0040.620.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.100.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3331.58-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0654.5557.300.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0040.880.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.310.0614.2945.19-0.22-0.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.22-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0640.0046.73-0.06-0.00
IndianaB100.560.0680.0057.630.340.01
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0633.3345.50-0.09-0.01
MinnesotaB100.310.0677.7864.730.170.02
North TexasCUSA0.310.0642.8636.79-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.100.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0037.510.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.350.000.00
La SalleA100.280.0650.0049.960.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5661.390.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4439.74-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.50-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.03
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.630.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.310.0644.4456.51-0.030.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2930.74-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0644.4449.65-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
RiderMAAC0.310.0650.0052.800.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.13-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.81-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.350.0337.5049.83-0.09-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.350.0311.1144.04-0.27-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.350.0357.1456.750.050.00
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0337.5040.20-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0033.84-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0340.0050.32-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.91-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.250.0360.0037.220.05-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0318.1835.99-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.250.0387.5054.790.190.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.75-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0366.6758.240.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.310.0344.4447.53-0.03-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0366.6754.830.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.750.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0311.1125.02-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5757.26-0.000.00
Penn St.B100.350.0390.9153.850.280.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.28-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.350.0362.5064.260.090.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8627.08-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0037.28-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0342.8637.65-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
West VirginiaB120.350.0390.0066.940.280.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.01
RutgersB100.280.0360.0035.070.06-0.01
BucknellPat0.280.0340.0036.29-0.06-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0325.0037.13-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.23-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0050.07-0.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.0340.0050.78-0.060.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.050.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.500.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.410.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.310.0350.0053.700.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02