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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Central Connecticut

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:344.0
Current RPI:344
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:342
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:4-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-19
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:343
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23344.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Hartford (327.0)AEH75-60W100%0.0
11-13Seton Hall (43.0)BEA82-58L0%0.0
11-16Binghamton (311.0)AEA72-70L0%0.0
11-22Penn (203.0)IvyH65-87L0%0.0
11-30Maine (322.0)AEA61-82W100%0.0
12-3Brown (284.0)IvyH58-75L0%0.0
12-6Rutgers (177.0)B10A79-37L0%0.0
12-10Duquesne (267.0)A10A70-67L0%0.0
12-13Yale (128.0)IvyA90-59L0%0.0
12-18UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA86-69L0%0.0
12-21Fordham (215.0)A10A83-60L0%0.0
12-29Wagner (244.0)NECA71-46L0%0.0
12-31St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA86-77L0%0.0
1-5Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH62-64L0%0.0
1-7Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH68-77L0%0.0
1-12LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA60-49L0%0.0
1-14Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH47-59L0%0.0
1-19Robert Morris (237.0)NECA74-67L0%0.0
1-21St. Francis PA (258.0)NECA83-84W100%0.0
1-25Bryant (285.0)NECH54-65L0%0.0
1-28LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH61-52W100%0.0
2-2Wagner (244.0)NECH60-70L0%0.0
2-4Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA52-54W100%0.0
2-9Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA79-62L0%0.0
2-11Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA77-62L0%0.0
2-16St. Francis PA (258.0)NECH71-80L0%0.0
2-18Robert Morris (237.0)NECH64-74L0%0.0
2-23St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH62-53W100%0.0
2-25Bryant (285.0)NECA91-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ConnecticutNEC26.3126.3122.2222.22-14.62-14.62
St. Francis PANEC4.564.5648.2848.28-0.16-0.16
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.514.5156.2556.250.560.56
Robert MorrisNEC4.514.5138.7138.71-1.02-1.02
Sacred HeartNEC4.514.5136.6736.67-1.20-1.20
WagnerNEC4.474.4748.1548.15-0.17-0.17
LIU BrooklynNEC4.474.4762.0762.071.081.08
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.474.4729.6329.63-1.82-1.82
BryantNEC4.454.4531.0331.03-1.69-1.69
St. Francis NYNEC4.364.367.147.14-3.74-3.74
HartfordAE2.062.0629.0329.03-0.87-0.87
UMass LowellAE2.062.0631.0331.03-0.78-0.78
BrownIvy1.991.9937.0437.04-0.52-0.52
YaleIvy1.981.9859.2659.260.370.37
MaineAE1.981.9820.0020.00-1.19-1.19
BinghamtonAE1.951.9528.5728.57-0.83-0.83
FordhamA101.921.9236.6736.67-0.51-0.51
PennIvy1.901.9044.4444.44-0.21-0.21
DuquesneA101.891.8929.0329.03-0.79-0.79
RutgersB101.871.8741.9441.94-0.30-0.30
Seton HallBE1.811.8164.5264.520.530.53
AlbanyAE0.370.3760.6160.610.080.08
Stony BrookAE0.370.3758.0658.060.060.06
DartmouthIvy0.350.3525.9325.93-0.17-0.17
UMBCAE0.300.3057.1457.140.040.04
HarvardIvy0.300.3061.5461.540.070.07
VermontAE0.290.2984.8584.850.200.20
New HampshireAE0.280.2858.6258.620.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.250.2578.5778.570.140.14
CornellIvy0.240.2425.0025.00-0.12-0.12
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2438.4638.46-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.230.2362.5062.500.060.06
Loyola MDPat0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
St. John'sBE0.170.1742.4242.42-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
ArmyPat0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
MassachusettsA100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
VirginiaACC0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1430.3030.30-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
MarquetteBE0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
RichmondA100.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
MinnesotaB100.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
DePaulBE0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
AmericanPat0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
La SalleA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
TowsonCAA0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
DavidsonA100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.050.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
OhioMAC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01