Central Connecticut

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	200.0
Current RPI:	200
Expected SOS:	193
Current SOS:	193
Current Record:	13-17
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	200
Expected OOC SOS:	186

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-17	200.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	N	64-63	L	0%
11-12	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	64-61	L	0%
11-15	Brown (241.0)	Ivy	H	86-71	W	100%
11-18	La Salle (46.0)	A10	A	74-81	W	100%
11-20	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	82-83	W	100%
11-24	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	80-77	L	0%
12-5	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	84-87	W	100%
12-8	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	100-69	L	0%
12-21	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	63-82	L	0%
12-29	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	69-71	L	0%
12-31	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	96-62	L	0%
1-3	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	67-60	L	0%
1-5	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	70-77	W	100%
1-10	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	84-78	W	100%
1-12	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	62-69	L	0%
1-17	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	73-66	W	100%
1-19	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	75-80	L	0%
1-24	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	85-78	L	0%
1-26	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	72-70	W	100%
1-31	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	58-78	W	100%
2-2	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	71-80	W	100%
2-7	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	75-81	L	0%
2-14	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	101-82	L	0%
2-16	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	89-80	L	0%
2-21	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	88-67	L	0%
2-23	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	72-80	W	100%
2-25	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	67-65	W	100%
2-28	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	84-81	W	100%
3-2	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	61-81	L	0%
3-6	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	72-50	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Connecticut	NEC	26.36	26.36	46.53	46.53	-1.83	-1.83
Wagner	NEC	5.70	5.70	60.71	60.71	1.22	1.22
Bryant	NEC	4.28	4.28	60.71	60.71	0.92	0.92
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.25	4.25	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
Robert Morris	NEC	4.16	4.16	70.97	70.97	1.74	1.74
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.15	4.15	33.33	33.33	-1.38	-1.38
Quinnipiac	NEC	4.12	4.12	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.06	4.06	14.81	14.81	-2.86	-2.86
St. Peter's	MAAC	3.46	3.46	25.00	25.00	-1.73	-1.73
Long Island	NEC	2.72	2.72	59.38	59.38	0.51	0.51
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.56	2.56	23.33	23.33	-1.36	-1.36
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.56	2.56	41.38	41.38	-0.44	-0.44
Monmouth	NEC	2.50	2.50	33.33	33.33	-0.83	-0.83
Hartford	AE	2.03	2.03	55.17	55.17	0.21	0.21
New Hampshire	AE	1.86	1.86	29.63	29.63	-0.76	-0.76
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.86	1.86	24.14	24.14	-0.96	-0.96
Brown	Ivy	1.84	1.84	46.15	46.15	-0.14	-0.14
Fairfield	MAAC	1.83	1.83	54.55	54.55	0.17	0.17
La Salle	A10	1.78	1.78	72.41	72.41	0.80	0.80
Indiana	B10	1.77	1.77	81.25	81.25	1.11	1.11
Syracuse	BE	1.77	1.77	73.53	73.53	0.83	0.83
Northeastern	CAA	1.69	1.69	61.29	61.29	0.38	0.38
Binghamton	AE	0.39	0.39	6.90	6.90	-0.34	-0.34
Albany	AE	0.39	0.39	70.59	70.59	0.16	0.16
Vermont	AE	0.33	0.33	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
Lehigh	Pat	0.33	0.33	68.97	68.97	0.12	0.12
Stony Brook	AE	0.31	0.31	76.67	76.67	0.17	0.17
Boston University	AE	0.31	0.31	58.62	58.62	0.05	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.29	0.29	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.28	0.28	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
Niagara	MAAC	0.28	0.28	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.25	0.25	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Yale	Ivy	0.23	0.23	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.22	0.22	29.03	29.03	-0.09	-0.09
Canisius	MAAC	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.19	0.19	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.19	0.19	59.26	59.26	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Siena	MAAC	0.19	0.19	25.00	25.00	-0.09	-0.09
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.18	19.35	19.35	-0.11	-0.11
Cornell	Ivy	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.15	0.15	29.63	29.63	-0.06	-0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.14	0.14	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.13	23.33	23.33	-0.07	-0.07
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Temple	A10	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Fordham	A10	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.08	0.08	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01