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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Central Connecticut

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:293.0
Current RPI:293
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:308
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:7-10
Expected Conf Record:7-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:312
Expected OOC SOS:275



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19293.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Yale (147.0)IvyN77-93L0%0.0
11-13Purdue (145.0)B10A109-73L0%0.0
11-16Northeastern (222.0)CAAA83-69L0%0.0
11-23Rider (198.0)MAACH73-89L0%0.0
11-26NJIT (308.0)indA71-74W100%0.0
11-30Brown (229.0)IvyA72-61L0%0.0
12-4New Hampshire (340.0)AEH65-56W100%0.0
12-7Ohio St. (24.0)B10A74-56L0%0.0
12-10Hartford (234.0)AEH73-59W100%0.0
12-15Hofstra (277.0)CAAA72-67L0%0.0
12-21Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthH62-65L0%0.0
1-3Coastal Carolina (196.0)BSthA86-67L0%0.0
1-9Wagner (218.0)NECH59-88L0%0.0
1-11St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH67-75L0%0.0
1-16St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH66-76L0%0.0
1-18LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH61-62L0%0.0
1-23Wagner (218.0)NECA83-87W100%0.0
1-25Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA86-73L0%0.0
1-30St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA69-63L0%0.0
2-1Robert Morris (129.0)NECA73-74W100%0.0
2-6Bryant (177.0)NECH68-79L0%0.0
2-8Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH91-86W100%0.0
2-15Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH74-69W100%0.0
2-18St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA71-73W100%0.0
2-20Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH76-87L0%0.0
2-22Bryant (177.0)NECA68-65L0%0.0
2-27LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA82-86W100%0.0
3-1Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA70-73W100%0.0
3-5Wagner (218.0)NECA83-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ConnecticutNEC26.4026.4037.2437.24-6.74-6.74
WagnerNEC5.905.9059.2659.261.091.09
BryantNEC4.334.3351.7251.720.150.15
Sacred HeartNEC4.334.3317.2417.24-2.84-2.84
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.314.3129.6329.63-1.76-1.76
St. Francis NYNEC4.304.3055.1755.170.450.45
St. Francis PANEC4.304.3027.5927.59-1.93-1.93
LIU BrooklynNEC4.214.2129.6329.63-1.71-1.71
Coastal CarolinaBSth3.503.5057.1457.140.500.50
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.742.7448.3948.39-0.09-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC2.722.7263.6463.640.740.74
HofstraCAA2.012.0128.1228.12-0.88-0.88
New HampshireAE1.991.9917.8617.86-1.28-1.28
HartfordAE1.961.9653.1253.120.120.12
YaleIvy1.961.9650.0050.000.000.00
NJITind1.951.9537.5037.50-0.49-0.49
BrownIvy1.931.9350.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B101.861.8672.7372.730.850.85
RiderMAAC1.841.8443.3343.33-0.24-0.24
PurdueB101.831.8345.1645.16-0.18-0.18
NortheasternCAA1.781.7832.2632.26-0.63-0.63
VermontAE0.320.3266.6766.670.110.11
LafayettePat0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
Stony BrookAE0.280.2868.7568.750.100.10
PennIvy0.280.2828.5728.57-0.12-0.12
AlbanyAE0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
DelawareCAA0.270.2773.5373.530.120.12
LehighPat0.250.2543.7543.75-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
MonmouthMAAC0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.240.2438.4638.46-0.06-0.06
Penn St.B100.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
HarvardIvy0.210.2186.2186.210.150.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.190.1970.3770.370.080.08
CornellIvy0.180.183.703.70-0.17-0.17
MaineAE0.180.1817.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Charleston SouthernBSth0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
WinthropBSth0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
MinnesotaB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
DuquesneA100.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
UMBCAE0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
TowsonCAA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
SienaMAAC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
RadfordBSth0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
FordhamA100.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1178.5778.570.060.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.060.06
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
TulaneCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
StetsonASun0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.05-0.05
BucknellPat0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
ProvidenceBE0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00