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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Central Connecticut

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:309.7
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:285
Current SOS:306
Current Record:2-7
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:264



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13166.00.01%
17-14191.70.03%
16-15214.50.17%
15-16232.00.78%
14-17250.71.77%
13-18269.15.18%
12-19285.59.36%
11-20298.914.42%
10-21309.418.67%
9-22318.718.56%
8-23325.315.29%
7-24331.49.14%
6-25336.04.68%
5-26340.31.45%
4-27343.80.42%
3-28347.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Fairfield (246.9)MAACN63-71L0%0.0
11-17Maryland (47.6)B10A93-57L0%0.0
11-21Towson (195.0)CAAN49-58L0%0.0
11-22Monmouth (173.6)MAACA65-50L0%0.0
11-23Bethune Cookman (333.4)MEACN60-65L0%0.0
11-30East Carolina (216.3)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
12-3Rider (188.2)MAACA69-56L0%0.0
12-6Hartford (212.5)AEA47-56W100%0.0
12-10UMBC (336.8)AEH65-53W100%0.0
12-20NJIT (233.3)indH0-050%0.1
12-22Brown (246.3)IvyH0-053%0.9
12-28Connecticut (71.3)AmerA0-05%-19.6
12-31Hofstra (65.7)CAAH0-011%-14.1
1-3Fairleigh Dickinson (257.1)NECH0-055%1.4
1-5Sacred Heart (154.5)NECA0-014%-12.9
1-8Mount St. Mary's (258.5)NECA0-032%-5.5
1-10Robert Morris (272.3)NECH0-056%1.9
1-15LIU Brooklyn (235.2)NECH0-047%-1.0
1-17Bryant (199.6)NECH0-043%-2.2
1-22St. Francis NY (268.3)NECA0-022%-8.9
1-24Wagner (274.1)NECH0-058%2.4
1-29LIU Brooklyn (235.2)NECA0-020%-9.8
1-31Wagner (274.1)NECA0-030%-6.3
2-5St. Francis NY (268.3)NECH0-049%-0.2
2-7Mount St. Mary's (258.5)NECH0-061%3.2
2-12St. Francis PA (141.5)NECA0-011%-14.5
2-14Robert Morris (272.3)NECA0-028%-6.8
2-19St. Francis PA (141.5)NECH0-031%-5.8
2-21Sacred Heart (154.5)NECH0-036%-4.2
2-26Bryant (199.6)NECA0-018%-11.0
2-28Fairleigh Dickinson (257.1)NECA0-026%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central ConnecticutNEC27.5926.3627.0329.82-12.68-10.64
WagnerNEC0.254.2214.2931.81-0.18-1.53
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.1822.2238.76-0.00-0.94
Sacred HeartNEC0.284.1850.0057.160.000.60
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.1733.3343.09-0.00-0.58
BryantNEC0.004.1728.5745.55-0.00-0.37
St. Francis PANEC0.004.1450.0060.990.000.91
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.1428.5739.76-0.00-0.85
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.1230.0038.14-0.00-0.98
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.1237.5036.80-0.00-1.09
MonmouthMAAC6.391.9137.5055.06-1.600.19
NJITind0.001.8136.3640.61-0.00-0.34
RiderMAAC5.831.8145.4551.23-0.530.04
TowsonCAA6.421.8062.5049.761.60-0.01
HofstraCAA0.001.7877.7878.210.001.00
HartfordAE5.791.7555.5652.940.640.10
UMBCAE5.861.7311.1121.66-4.56-0.98
ConnecticutAmer0.001.7250.0056.200.000.21
BrownIvy0.001.7240.0033.32-0.00-0.57
FairfieldMAAC5.561.7237.5037.66-1.39-0.42
MarylandB105.861.7090.0066.594.690.56
East CarolinaAmer5.561.6728.5736.41-2.38-0.45
Bethune CookmanMEAC6.171.6711.1131.73-4.80-0.61
New HampshireAE0.000.3657.1464.620.000.11
RutgersB100.000.3060.0035.070.00-0.09
MaineAE0.000.2911.1121.08-0.00-0.17
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2862.5064.770.000.08
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.2736.3647.13-0.08-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.2633.3348.89-0.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.2655.5654.360.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.2575.0069.820.000.10
YaleIvy0.280.2572.7367.180.130.09
VermontAE0.280.2344.4457.85-0.030.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.2277.7869.190.000.09
DelawareCAA0.000.220.007.39-0.00-0.19
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.280.2041.6744.33-0.05-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.1933.3354.74-0.000.02
TempleAmer0.310.1963.6455.600.080.02
James MadisonCAA0.350.1970.0060.790.140.04
NiagaraMAAC0.280.1914.2930.74-0.20-0.07
QuinnipiacMAAC0.590.1944.4449.65-0.07-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.280.1744.4447.53-0.03-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.170.0011.87-0.00-0.13
LehighPat0.230.1737.5047.71-0.06-0.01
PennIvy0.230.1737.5033.00-0.06-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1650.0056.340.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1655.5661.390.000.04
IonaMAAC0.540.1666.6772.340.180.07
ManhattanMAAC0.310.1622.2237.50-0.17-0.04
MaristMAAC0.310.1610.0018.61-0.25-0.10
SienaMAAC0.230.1637.5051.81-0.060.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1587.5065.040.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.1428.5731.23-0.00-0.05
Holy CrossPat0.280.1457.1453.130.040.01
Notre DameACC0.000.1490.9171.890.000.06
AmericanPat0.000.1460.0065.400.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.230.1427.2737.85-0.11-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.000.1444.4444.78-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.310.1366.6759.460.100.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1350.0053.700.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1350.0044.900.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.310.1366.6757.860.100.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1140.0046.73-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1155.5640.500.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.1185.7172.940.000.05
Loyola MDPat0.280.1133.3327.70-0.09-0.05
UCFAmer0.280.1155.5634.940.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.1177.7868.780.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.1155.5659.990.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1160.0056.800.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.310.110.0014.79-0.31-0.08
SMUAmer0.310.1170.0071.330.120.05
La SalleA100.000.1150.0049.960.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.1125.0037.13-0.00-0.03
ElonCAA0.000.1137.5047.87-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.1157.1456.750.000.01
HowardMEAC0.280.0930.0043.91-0.11-0.01
NavyPat0.000.0820.0021.58-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.0890.0081.860.000.05
FIUCUSA0.000.0844.4451.04-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.280.0860.0056.560.060.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.080.0012.36-0.00-0.06
BucknellPat0.310.0840.0036.29-0.06-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0871.4348.860.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.250.0844.4470.08-0.030.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.350.0850.0052.710.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.350.0870.0071.630.140.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0887.5054.790.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.540.0818.1835.99-0.34-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0890.0084.680.000.06
Michigan St.B100.230.0872.7373.150.110.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.03
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.310.000.03
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.340.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0690.0067.260.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.280.0620.0029.81-0.17-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0650.0038.000.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.530.0560.0053.820.110.00
IllinoisB100.000.0572.7365.930.000.02
IowaB100.280.0572.7362.590.130.01
JacksonvilleASun0.280.0510.0018.58-0.22-0.03
MinnesotaB100.280.0577.7864.730.150.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0560.0040.620.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0533.3332.09-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0575.0069.120.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0525.0044.59-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0544.4451.58-0.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6745.670.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0520.0043.08-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.310.05100.0087.140.310.04
LibertyBSth0.000.0525.0034.77-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0533.3345.28-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.050.0016.85-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0560.0059.420.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0545.4544.07-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.310.0590.0066.940.250.02
FordhamA100.560.0528.5728.26-0.24-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0580.0057.630.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0566.6743.780.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0590.9153.850.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0355.5647.870.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0036.67-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0082.080.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7865.390.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0322.2230.99-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.350.0330.0029.80-0.14-0.01
George WashingtonA100.280.0366.6766.340.090.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.280.0336.3644.53-0.08-0.00
Green BayHorz0.350.0375.0078.480.170.02
HawaiiBW0.350.0366.6754.830.120.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3332.85-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0336.3633.67-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.280.0320.0026.57-0.17-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0337.5042.45-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.280.0344.4456.91-0.030.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0039.41-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0372.7353.260.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1828.02-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0310.0027.42-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0362.5066.700.070.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.350.0314.2945.19-0.25-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0322.2237.75-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.310.0366.6754.660.100.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.970.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0377.7870.120.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.930.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.310.0350.0074.000.000.01
South DakotaSum0.310.0327.2738.97-0.14-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
WoffordSC0.310.0377.7876.240.170.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0337.5034.19-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.230.0377.7851.350.130.00
Iowa St.B120.250.0388.8963.800.200.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0318.1844.62-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.230.0388.8969.390.180.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.110.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0330.0031.57-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0388.8963.660.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.0350.0040.880.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.250.0360.0064.620.050.01
VirginiaACC0.250.03100.0085.310.250.02
VMISC0.250.0333.3339.22-0.08-0.01
WinthropBSth0.250.0328.5747.31-0.11-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02