Central Connecticut

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	227.0
Current RPI:	227
Expected SOS:	243
Current SOS:	243
Current Record:	13-16
Expected Record:	13-16
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	285
Expected OOC SOS:	227

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-16	227.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Connecticut.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Yale (102.0)	Ivy	N	69-73	L	0%
11-14	Niagara (201.0)	MAAC	A	102-93	L	0%
11-19	Army (301.0)	Pat	H	67-51	W	100%
11-22	MD Baltimore County (339.0)	AE	H	77-69	W	100%
11-26	Hartford (307.0)	AE	H	92-58	W	100%
12-1	Bryant (340.0)	NEC	A	51-83	W	100%
12-3	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	H	82-80	W	100%
12-7	Michigan St. (4.0)	B10	A	89-69	L	0%
12-10	Brown (313.0)	Ivy	A	90-80	L	0%
12-17	Northwestern (63.0)	B10	A	70-64	L	0%
12-22	La Salle (90.0)	A10	H	59-85	L	0%
12-30	Massachusetts (76.0)	A10	A	97-65	L	0%
1-5	St. Francis PA (312.0)	NEC	H	69-58	W	100%
1-7	Robert Morris (99.0)	NEC	H	68-53	W	100%
1-12	Mount St. Mary's (292.0)	NEC	A	66-71	W	100%
1-14	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	A	67-58	L	0%
1-19	Bryant (340.0)	NEC	H	69-51	W	100%
1-21	Sacred Heart (237.0)	NEC	A	62-61	L	0%
1-26	Monmouth (236.0)	NEC	H	56-58	L	0%
1-28	Fairleigh Dickinson (330.0)	NEC	H	69-62	W	100%
2-2	St. Francis NY (210.0)	NEC	A	73-67	L	0%
2-4	Long Island (80.0)	NEC	A	95-81	L	0%
2-8	Quinnipiac (155.0)	NEC	A	72-44	L	0%
2-12	Quinnipiac (155.0)	NEC	H	59-67	L	0%
2-16	St. Francis PA (312.0)	NEC	A	60-65	W	100%
2-18	Robert Morris (99.0)	NEC	A	68-60	L	0%
2-23	Mount St. Mary's (292.0)	NEC	H	78-63	W	100%
2-25	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	H	78-61	W	100%
3-1	Wagner (93.0)	NEC	A	87-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Connecticut's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Central Connecticut's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Central Connecticut.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Central Connecticut	NEC	26.32	26.32	45.13	45.13	-2.56	-2.56
Wagner	NEC	5.90	5.90	82.14	82.14	3.79	3.79
Bryant	NEC	4.38	4.38	7.14	7.14	-3.75	-3.75
Robert Morris	NEC	4.37	4.37	71.88	71.88	1.91	1.91
Quinnipiac	NEC	4.37	4.37	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.32	4.32	43.33	43.33	-0.58	-0.58
St. Francis PA	NEC	4.22	4.22	22.22	22.22	-2.34	-2.34
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.20	4.20	29.63	29.63	-1.71	-1.71
Long Island	NEC	2.73	2.73	75.00	75.00	1.36	1.36
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.68	2.68	48.28	48.28	-0.09	-0.09
Monmouth	NEC	2.65	2.65	35.48	35.48	-0.77	-0.77
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.56	2.56	10.71	10.71	-2.01	-2.01
Hartford	AE	2.06	2.06	30.00	30.00	-0.83	-0.83
Yale	Ivy	2.01	2.01	64.00	64.00	0.56	0.56
Brown	Ivy	1.99	1.99	20.69	20.69	-1.16	-1.16
Niagara	MAAC	1.90	1.90	40.62	40.62	-0.36	-0.36
La Salle	A10	1.88	1.88	62.50	62.50	0.47	0.47
Army	Pat	1.87	1.87	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Massachusetts	A10	1.83	1.83	65.62	65.62	0.57	0.57
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.81	1.81	13.79	13.79	-1.31	-1.31
Michigan St.	B10	1.75	1.75	78.12	78.12	0.99	0.99
Northwestern	B10	1.75	1.75	56.67	56.67	0.23	0.23
Lafayette	Pat	0.39	0.39	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.37	0.37	78.12	78.12	0.21	0.21
American	Pat	0.32	0.32	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.31	0.31	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Vermont	AE	0.31	0.31	67.65	67.65	0.11	0.11
Albany	AE	0.29	0.29	57.58	57.58	0.04	0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.22	0.22	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Boston University	AE	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.22	0.22	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.21	0.21	13.79	13.79	-0.15	-0.15
Princeton	Ivy	0.21	0.21	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Colgate	Pat	0.20	0.20	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.20	7.14	7.14	-0.17	-0.17
New Hampshire	AE	0.20	0.20	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.20	0.20	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.20	0.20	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.19	0.19	16.13	16.13	-0.13	-0.13
Rider	MAAC	0.18	0.18	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.18	0.18	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.17	0.17	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	6.45	6.45	-0.15	-0.15
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.17	0.17	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.15	0.15	86.21	86.21	0.11	0.11
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Maine	AE	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.14	0.14	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.09	22.22	22.22	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	3.12	3.12	-0.08	-0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00