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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:253.2
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:153
Current Record:7-15
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:4-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:173



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15193.00.01%
13-16202.50.69%
12-17219.05.51%
11-18235.120.56%
10-19251.033.67%
9-20265.927.63%
8-21279.010.64%
7-22290.71.28%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kent St. (105.8)MACA79-70L0%0.0
11-18Toledo (162.3)MACH78-100L0%0.0
11-21Florida Gulf Coast (224.8)ASunA104-101L0%0.0
11-22Bowling Green (186.0)MACN72-79L0%0.0
11-23North Dakota (226.4)BSkyN69-79W100%0.0
11-28Niagara (305.3)MAACA70-88W100%0.0
12-2Robert Morris (304.7)NECH65-58W100%0.0
12-4American (256.8)PatH56-60L0%0.0
12-12Purdue (14.4)B10A95-64L0%0.0
12-19Michigan (41.1)B10A105-46L0%0.0
12-21Notre Dame (48.1)ACCA87-78L0%0.0
1-2Detroit (213.1)HorzA96-87L0%0.0
1-4Oakland (117.6)HorzA98-100W100%0.0
1-7Milwaukee (158.7)HorzH65-81L0%0.0
1-9Green Bay (156.5)HorzH103-93W100%0.0
1-14Northern Kentucky (257.1)HorzA84-64L0%0.0
1-16Wright St. (166.5)HorzA81-45L0%0.0
1-18Valparaiso (35.5)HorzH65-96L0%0.0
1-24Cleveland St. (272.4)HorzA55-70W100%0.0
1-28Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzA78-82W100%0.0
1-30Valparaiso (35.5)HorzA97-68L0%0.0
2-4Oakland (117.6)HorzH85-107L0%0.0
2-6Detroit (213.1)HorzH0-039%-3.0
2-13Cleveland St. (272.4)HorzH0-058%2.2
2-16Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzH0-081%9.5
2-20Green Bay (156.5)HorzA0-010%-13.7
2-22Milwaukee (158.7)HorzA0-09%-14.8
2-25Wright St. (166.5)HorzH0-031%-5.3
2-27Northern Kentucky (257.1)HorzH0-050%-0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz26.3726.4136.7935.04-6.97-7.90
Cleveland St.Horz3.094.5123.8123.55-1.62-2.38
OaklandHorz5.204.4868.1868.501.891.66
DetroitHorz3.024.4742.1141.52-0.48-0.76
Northern KentuckyHorz3.064.4726.3229.05-1.45-1.87
Wright St.Horz2.984.4552.3853.040.140.27
Green BayHorz2.924.4560.0058.850.580.79
MilwaukeeHorz2.914.4560.0059.570.580.85
ValparaisoHorz5.034.4278.9581.792.912.81
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.854.415.567.03-2.54-3.79
ToledoMAC2.642.0855.0056.100.260.25
Bowling GreenMAC2.662.0652.6347.040.14-0.12
Kent St.MAC2.381.8765.0060.360.710.39
MichiganB102.381.8471.4366.871.020.62
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.391.7942.1147.58-0.38-0.09
North DakotaBSky2.391.7947.0648.81-0.14-0.04
Notre DameACC2.331.7866.6762.470.780.44
PurdueB102.321.7881.8277.511.480.98
Robert MorrisNEC2.371.7826.0930.51-1.13-0.69
AmericanPat2.271.7228.5730.31-0.97-0.68
NiagaraMAAC2.271.7226.0926.33-1.09-0.82
AkronMAC0.160.2681.8279.750.100.16
Eastern MichiganMAC0.260.2638.8943.22-0.06-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.220.2466.6760.120.070.05
OhioMAC0.330.2460.0057.960.070.04
WisconsinB100.220.2460.8755.900.050.03
Miami OHMAC0.220.2328.5728.88-0.09-0.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.270.2140.9139.22-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2150.0050.510.000.00
BelmontOVC0.270.1869.5770.030.100.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.260.1826.0930.33-0.13-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.270.1861.9058.190.070.03
Chicago St.WAC0.260.174.557.91-0.23-0.15
BuffaloMAC0.110.1757.1457.510.020.03
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1735.0036.57-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.100.1786.9681.770.080.11
South DakotaSum0.160.1539.1339.48-0.04-0.03
XavierBE0.160.1590.9184.430.130.10
IllinoisB100.210.1547.8344.51-0.01-0.02
PittsburghACC0.210.1580.0070.290.130.06
Rhode IslandA100.210.1554.5555.990.020.02
MinnesotaB100.160.1426.0927.81-0.07-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.200.1447.6249.35-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.200.1481.8279.900.130.08
UCFAmer0.120.1355.0047.170.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.110.1321.7427.64-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1238.1042.99-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1252.3854.240.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.110.1247.6252.92-0.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1218.1822.83-0.07-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.110.1254.5552.750.010.01
IonaMAAC0.160.1259.0959.680.030.02
LehighPat0.150.1230.0036.08-0.06-0.03
RiderMAAC0.100.1241.6743.51-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.210.1147.8343.63-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.090.1182.6181.380.060.07
NJITASun0.110.1052.1754.520.000.01
DrakeMVC0.120.0922.7324.85-0.06-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0914.2916.31-0.08-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0976.1976.220.060.05
VanderbiltSEC0.110.0959.0962.730.020.02
BucknellPat0.150.0952.3856.770.010.01
DuquesneA100.100.0966.6758.760.030.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.150.0941.6746.85-0.02-0.01
WagnerNEC0.100.0961.9063.360.020.02
IndianaB100.100.0982.6177.370.070.05
BryantNEC0.100.0826.0927.58-0.05-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0841.6743.85-0.02-0.01
MaristMAAC0.100.0819.0521.40-0.06-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0879.1780.770.060.05
NebraskaB100.100.0852.1751.560.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.0875.0073.480.070.04
VirginiaACC0.150.0881.8276.020.090.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0860.0056.080.030.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0850.0050.860.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0750.0053.090.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0757.1457.940.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0742.1142.70-0.02-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0747.6247.86-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0722.7324.28-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0755.5660.900.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0738.1041.23-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0768.1869.350.020.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0730.0029.98-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0725.0029.75-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0723.8125.03-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.060.0768.4271.820.020.03
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3634.95-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0652.1747.620.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0638.1047.51-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0647.8348.69-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0640.9143.01-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0652.3848.890.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0681.8278.720.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0627.7829.23-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.110.0668.1867.800.040.02
ArmyPat0.050.0654.5556.020.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0652.1754.400.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0630.0028.61-0.02-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0625.0029.29-0.03-0.02
ColgatePat0.100.0642.8643.53-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0652.1748.790.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0657.1457.930.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0636.3635.33-0.01-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0661.1158.300.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0640.9139.70-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0654.5555.310.010.01
IPFWSum0.110.0673.9170.210.050.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0672.7369.690.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0623.8125.26-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0631.8234.36-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.110.0640.9138.03-0.02-0.01
NavyPat0.050.0665.2265.230.020.02
OregonP120.110.0681.8278.210.070.03
Oregon St.P120.110.0660.0054.590.020.01
PacificWCC0.050.0621.0524.61-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0631.8232.32-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0652.6347.690.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.100.0680.0082.460.060.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.0673.9173.090.050.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.0631.8226.61-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0680.9575.640.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.110.0690.4885.550.090.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0645.4542.14-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0666.6763.480.000.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0658.3354.120.010.00
RutgersB100.100.0622.7320.68-0.06-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0633.3333.55-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0633.3334.18-0.03-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0622.7326.19-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0613.6413.80-0.07-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0650.0048.750.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0652.1752.980.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0652.3853.820.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0645.0043.19-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0654.5561.950.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0638.1037.53-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0631.8235.16-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0638.1041.92-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0666.6767.290.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0634.7841.59-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.100.0656.5258.380.010.01
WashingtonP120.090.0668.1862.190.030.01
BradleyMVC0.060.038.709.77-0.05-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0342.8645.93-0.01-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0359.0955.550.010.00
La SalleA100.060.0321.0520.91-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0375.0072.220.030.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0342.8639.84-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0361.9060.410.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.035.2610.18-0.06-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0352.1754.140.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0333.3339.27-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0344.4448.52-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0315.7916.39-0.04-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0381.8281.010.040.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.350.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0327.2732.84-0.02-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0352.6351.510.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0329.4138.47-0.02-0.01
UMBCAE0.060.0320.8325.01-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.050.0377.2776.780.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0357.1452.310.010.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0328.5734.73-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0336.3642.19-0.01-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0363.6462.340.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0372.7372.440.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.87-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0372.7369.920.020.01
ElonCAA0.050.0354.5553.020.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0368.1863.250.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0331.8232.92-0.02-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0340.0044.95-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0381.8277.490.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0370.0068.920.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0386.3680.660.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0325.0022.58-0.03-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.710.020.01
TexasB120.050.0368.1861.780.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0333.3332.88-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.1747.250.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0342.8635.05-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0373.9175.010.020.01
BrownIvy0.050.0333.3331.83-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0365.0064.310.010.01
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.47-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0353.3355.180.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0341.6740.25-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0317.3921.76-0.03-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0363.6464.090.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0363.6468.210.010.01
PennIvy0.050.0335.2934.69-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0381.8277.440.030.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.070.020.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0327.2724.41-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0366.6765.410.020.01