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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:275.0
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:209
Current SOS:209
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:188



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21275.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Kent St. (124.0)MACA79-70L0%0.0
11-18Toledo (182.0)MACH78-100L0%0.0
11-21Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunA104-101L0%0.0
11-22Bowling Green (200.0)MACN72-79L0%0.0
11-23North Dakota (218.0)BSkyN69-79W100%0.0
11-28Niagara (315.0)MAACA70-88W100%0.0
12-2Robert Morris (291.0)NECH65-58W100%0.0
12-4American (231.0)PatH56-60L0%0.0
12-12Purdue (15.0)B10A95-64L0%0.0
12-19Michigan (56.0)B10A105-46L0%0.0
12-21Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA87-78L0%0.0
1-2Detroit (204.0)HorzA96-87L0%0.0
1-4Oakland (116.0)HorzA98-100W100%0.0
1-7Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH65-81L0%0.0
1-9Green Bay (112.0)HorzH103-93W100%0.0
1-14Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA84-64L0%0.0
1-16Wright St. (146.0)HorzA81-45L0%0.0
1-18Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH65-96L0%0.0
1-24Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA55-70W100%0.0
1-28Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA78-82W100%0.0
1-30Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA97-68L0%0.0
2-4Oakland (116.0)HorzH85-107L0%0.0
2-6Detroit (204.0)HorzH92-94L0%0.0
2-13Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH59-64L0%0.0
2-16Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH92-91W100%0.0
2-20Green Bay (112.0)HorzA107-90L0%0.0
2-22Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA87-51L0%0.0
2-25Wright St. (146.0)HorzH81-87L0%0.0
2-27Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH94-75W100%0.0
3-5Detroit (204.0)HorzA92-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz26.4226.4231.6931.69-9.68-9.68
DetroitHorz5.985.9842.3142.31-0.92-0.92
Wright St.Horz4.554.5558.0658.060.730.73
Green BayHorz4.524.5264.5264.521.311.31
MilwaukeeHorz4.414.4155.1755.170.460.46
Cleveland St.Horz4.404.4021.4321.43-2.51-2.51
OaklandHorz4.384.3866.6766.671.461.46
Northern KentuckyHorz4.374.3723.0823.08-2.35-2.35
ValparaisoHorz4.324.3278.5778.572.472.47
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.314.3111.5411.54-3.32-3.32
Bowling GreenMAC2.022.0241.9441.94-0.33-0.33
ToledoMAC2.022.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC1.831.8356.6756.670.240.24
MichiganB101.801.8062.5062.500.450.45
PurdueB101.741.7475.7675.760.900.90
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
North DakotaBSky1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
Robert MorrisNEC1.721.7232.2632.26-0.61-0.61
AmericanPat1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
NiagaraMAAC1.671.6722.5822.58-0.91-0.91
Eastern MichiganMAC0.300.3048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.260.2675.7675.760.140.14
OhioMAC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
Central MichiganMAC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.210.2137.5037.50-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.170.1763.3363.330.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
IllinoisB100.160.1644.1244.12-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.160.163.453.45-0.15-0.15
MarylandB100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
UCFAmer0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
XavierBE0.140.1484.3884.380.090.09
South DakotaSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
RiderMAAC0.110.1139.3939.39-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Murray St.OVC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Georgia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
NJITASun0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
BryantNEC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0256.0056.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00