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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:276.3
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:258
Current SOS:48
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:283
Expected OOC SOS:314



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10109.00.02%
17-11140.00.17%
16-12164.70.75%
15-13183.81.84%
14-14203.83.81%
13-15225.48.19%
12-16244.812.00%
11-17264.316.32%
10-18283.017.56%
9-19299.015.36%
8-20313.511.74%
7-21324.37.18%
6-22333.13.53%
5-23339.81.12%
4-24343.60.35%
3-25345.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Kent St. (90.3)MACH61-69L0%0.0
11-18Central Michigan (214.6)MACA75-63L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Michigan (167.0)MACA71-62L0%0.0
11-22Longwood (327.3)BSthN0-080%10.2
11-23UNC Greensboro (326.3)SCN0-070%6.4
11-26UMKC (167.6)WACA0-026%-7.5
11-29Illinois St. (121.4)MVCA0-018%-11.0
12-2Robert Morris (278.5)NECA0-049%-0.2
12-5South Dakota (271.4)SumA0-040%-3.1
12-13Texas A&M (54.1)SECA0-06%-18.8
12-17Kennesaw St. (318.6)ASunH0-081%10.6
12-31Northern Kentucky (274.7)ASunH0-071%6.8
1-2Illinois Chicago (269.4)HorzA0-038%-3.7
1-4Valparaiso (179.7)HorzA0-024%-8.4
1-8Wright St. (155.9)HorzH0-044%-1.8
1-11Green Bay (112.5)HorzA0-013%-13.5
1-14Milwaukee (265.7)HorzA0-035%-4.7
1-17Cleveland St. (128.5)HorzH0-038%-3.8
1-20Valparaiso (179.7)HorzH0-046%-1.2
1-24Illinois Chicago (269.4)HorzH0-062%3.5
1-29Detroit (133.3)HorzA0-017%-11.5
2-1Oakland (241.9)HorzH0-056%1.7
2-4Cleveland St. (128.5)HorzA0-018%-10.9
2-11Green Bay (112.5)HorzH0-030%-6.3
2-15Wright St. (155.9)HorzA0-023%-9.0
2-21Detroit (133.3)HorzH0-036%-4.3
2-25Oakland (241.9)HorzA0-032%-5.5
2-28Milwaukee (265.7)HorzH0-058%2.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz37.5026.420.0037.65-37.50-6.52
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.530.0031.98-0.00-1.63
OaklandHorz4.174.520.0032.06-4.17-1.62
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.5233.3335.28-0.00-1.33
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.4950.0052.840.000.26
DetroitHorz0.004.480.0054.07-0.000.36
Wright St.Horz0.004.4850.0051.450.000.13
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4866.6751.480.000.13
Green BayHorz0.004.470.0064.76-0.001.32
Eastern MichiganMAC16.672.01100.0049.0116.67-0.04
Kent St.MAC16.671.95100.0066.7116.670.65
Central MichiganMAC16.671.88100.0043.5216.67-0.24
Kennesaw St.ASun0.001.880.0027.41-0.00-0.85
South DakotaSum0.001.850.0036.01-0.00-0.52
UMKCWAC0.001.8550.0058.500.000.32
LongwoodBSth0.001.8550.0021.290.00-1.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.001.850.0028.93-0.00-0.78
Northern KentuckyASun0.001.8533.3338.64-0.00-0.42
Illinois St.MVC0.001.7950.0053.520.000.13
Robert MorrisNEC0.001.7933.3338.00-0.00-0.43
Texas A&MSEC0.001.7966.6763.950.000.50
ToledoMAC0.000.3933.3363.82-0.000.11
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.32100.0061.540.000.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.300.0038.12-0.00-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.2950.0033.640.00-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.000.250.0045.03-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.23100.0055.380.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.23100.0050.220.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.200.0058.17-0.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.200.0028.82-0.00-0.09
OhioMAC0.000.2050.0054.660.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.2066.6759.850.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.200.0027.18-0.00-0.09
BradleyMVC0.000.190.0025.34-0.00-0.10
Western IllinoisSum0.000.180.0034.57-0.00-0.06
WisconsinB100.000.17100.0081.110.000.11
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.17100.0045.530.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.170.0054.04-0.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.16100.0037.800.00-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1650.0049.560.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.1650.0065.390.000.05
MissouriSEC0.000.1666.6750.370.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.160.0054.47-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.160.0038.29-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC4.170.1633.3351.38-1.390.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1650.0035.880.00-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.130.0051.04-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.1366.6763.580.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.13100.0043.710.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1366.6742.560.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1333.3330.78-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.130.0048.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0063.410.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.13100.0071.730.000.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.130.0024.25-0.00-0.07
LipscombASun0.000.130.0041.45-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.130.0049.10-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.130.0032.16-0.00-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.13100.0084.100.000.09
BelmontOVC0.000.1350.0072.160.000.06
MercerSC0.000.1350.0052.770.000.01
DaytonA100.000.1366.6769.310.000.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.13100.0058.280.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1333.3349.79-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.13100.0045.610.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3347.78-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0035.17-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.100.0034.69-0.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0074.210.000.05
MontanaBSky0.000.100.0049.81-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.10100.0057.620.000.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1050.0072.260.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1050.0051.340.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.1066.6747.240.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.10100.0066.870.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.10100.0043.610.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1033.3332.57-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.300.000.04
VCUA100.000.09100.0074.770.000.05
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0058.420.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.090.0033.60-0.00-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.09100.0029.380.00-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0044.430.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0966.6774.980.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.09100.0061.270.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0950.0035.570.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0033.43-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3349.18-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0933.3344.93-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0950.0057.440.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0073.200.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0053.870.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.23-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.07100.0063.380.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.220.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0775.0062.010.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0068.990.000.03
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0050.390.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.20-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0038.57-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0650.0040.300.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0025.820.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0625.0029.11-0.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3365.68-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0069.720.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0053.060.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3347.72-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.06100.0044.620.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.74-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0650.0043.730.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.06100.0058.330.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0666.6755.230.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.06100.0066.050.000.02
UMBCAE0.000.060.0035.60-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0055.900.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0068.970.000.02
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0054.540.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.060.0035.33-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0062.16-0.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0650.0062.440.000.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0650.0036.810.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6766.600.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6766.420.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6766.940.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0032.47-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0650.0041.040.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.060.0043.82-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0063.680.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.060.0032.86-0.00-0.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6751.250.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3344.86-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0036.850.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0061.070.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0061.810.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0633.3336.04-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0054.88-0.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.060.0051.62-0.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0049.490.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.90-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0056.600.000.01
MaineAE4.170.040.0016.80-4.17-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.040.0045.64-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.03100.0061.420.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0055.60-0.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.580.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0054.180.000.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0073.240.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0057.010.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0070.210.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.72-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.030.0037.20-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0040.180.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0068.940.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0333.3344.98-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.14-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0055.810.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0033.61-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.030.0051.78-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6777.370.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0064.920.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.630.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.200.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.080.000.02
LafayettePat0.000.0366.6762.890.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0024.76-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.20-0.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0055.220.000.00
StanfordP120.000.03100.0068.290.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6746.160.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.390.00-0.00