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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:251.0
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:205
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:7-14
Expected Conf Record:7-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:288



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21251.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Akron (58.0)MACH90-82W100%0.0
11-15Toledo (155.0)MACA103-98L0%0.0
11-18Jacksonville (291.0)ASunN79-54L0%0.0
11-19South Alabama (231.0)SBA84-75L0%0.0
11-20FIU (338.0)CUSAN78-73W100%0.0
11-26Canisius (171.0)MAACH84-90L0%0.0
11-30Robert Morris (237.0)NECA74-75W100%0.0
12-6Michigan St. (51.0)B10A77-57L0%0.0
12-10American (310.0)PatA77-62L0%0.0
12-14Niagara (275.0)MAACH101-97W100%0.0
12-20Ohio St. (90.0)B10A77-40L0%0.0
12-29Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH88-87W100%0.0
12-31Green Bay (157.0)HorzH77-90L0%0.0
1-5Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA83-70L0%0.0
1-7Wright St. (115.0)HorzA75-80W100%0.0
1-12Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH62-78L0%0.0
1-14Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH89-92L0%0.0
1-16Detroit (289.0)HorzA87-71L0%0.0
1-20Green Bay (157.0)HorzA89-92W100%0.0
1-22Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA94-85L0%0.0
1-28Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH67-64W100%0.0
2-2Oakland (109.0)HorzH76-90L0%0.0
2-4Detroit (289.0)HorzH80-90L0%0.0
2-9Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA84-81L0%0.0
2-11Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA82-72L0%0.0
2-16Wright St. (115.0)HorzH81-84L0%0.0
2-18Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH81-77W100%0.0
2-21Oakland (109.0)HorzA101-72L0%0.0
2-25Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA69-55L0%0.0
3-3Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzN69-84W100%0.0
3-4Oakland (109.0)HorzN80-81W100%0.0
3-6Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzN84-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz26.5726.5734.9334.93-8.01-8.01
Northern KentuckyHorz5.715.7168.9768.972.162.16
OaklandHorz5.655.6574.0774.072.722.72
Cleveland St.Horz5.625.6225.9325.93-2.71-2.71
MilwaukeeHorz4.364.3628.1228.12-1.91-1.91
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.194.1937.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Wright St.Horz4.194.1960.7160.710.900.90
Green BayHorz4.164.1655.5655.560.460.46
DetroitHorz4.164.1617.8617.86-2.67-2.67
ValparaisoHorz4.144.1472.4172.411.861.86
ToledoMAC1.741.7448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B101.691.6956.2556.250.210.21
CanisiusMAAC1.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
JacksonvilleASun1.661.6644.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Robert MorrisNEC1.641.6443.7543.75-0.21-0.21
South AlabamaSB1.621.6237.9337.93-0.39-0.39
FIUCUSA1.621.6217.8617.86-1.04-1.04
AkronMAC1.611.6178.1278.120.910.91
NiagaraMAAC1.611.6131.2531.25-0.60-0.60
Ohio St.B101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
AmericanPat1.591.5924.1424.14-0.82-0.82
Bowling GreenMAC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
Kent St.MAC0.270.2761.7661.760.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
Miami OHMAC0.200.2030.0030.00-0.08-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.180.1810.3410.34-0.14-0.14
KentuckySEC0.180.1885.2985.290.120.12
IllinoisB100.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1544.4444.44-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
MaristMAAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
WisconsinB100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
DuquesneA100.130.1331.2531.25-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
Penn St.B100.120.1245.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
MonmouthMAAC0.120.1281.8281.820.080.08
QuinnipiacMAAC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NevadaMWC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
UC DavisBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ElonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
NavyPat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
LehighPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0710.0010.00-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
PacificWCC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0277.1477.140.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.020.0296.9796.970.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02