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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:291.0
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:219
Current SOS:219
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21291.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Kent St. (94.0)MACH61-69L0%0.0
11-18Central Michigan (70.0)MACA75-63L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA71-62L0%0.0
11-22Longwood (316.0)BSthN72-82W100%0.0
11-23UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCN76-67W100%0.0
11-26UMKC (295.0)WACH66-63W100%0.0
11-29Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA85-73L0%0.0
12-2Robert Morris (171.0)NECA81-89W100%0.0
12-5South Dakota (213.0)SumA79-87W100%0.0
12-13Texas A&M (67.0)SECA81-63L0%0.0
12-17Kennesaw St. (319.0)ASunH84-90L0%0.0
12-31Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH78-74W100%0.0
1-2Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA77-71L0%0.0
1-4Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA79-64L0%0.0
1-8Wright St. (264.0)HorzH61-70L0%0.0
1-11Green Bay (54.0)HorzA82-67L0%0.0
1-14Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA77-62L0%0.0
1-17Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH61-74L0%0.0
1-20Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH62-77L0%0.0
1-24Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH77-64W100%0.0
1-29Detroit (205.0)HorzA93-87L0%0.0
2-1Oakland (155.0)HorzH80-96L0%0.0
2-4Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA73-60L0%0.0
2-11Green Bay (54.0)HorzH62-63L0%0.0
2-15Wright St. (264.0)HorzA69-74W100%0.0
2-21Detroit (205.0)HorzH70-83L0%0.0
2-25Oakland (155.0)HorzA82-71L0%0.0
2-28Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH74-82L0%0.0
3-3Detroit (205.0)HorzA77-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz26.4026.4028.7828.78-11.21-11.21
DetroitHorz6.046.0435.7135.71-1.73-1.73
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.524.5223.3323.33-2.41-2.41
Cleveland St.Horz4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz4.424.4282.1482.142.842.84
Green BayHorz4.424.4271.4371.431.891.89
OaklandHorz4.394.3942.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Wright St.Horz4.364.3629.6329.63-1.78-1.78
MilwaukeeHorz4.364.3638.4638.46-1.01-1.01
Eastern MichiganMAC1.931.9355.1755.170.200.20
Kent St.MAC1.871.8763.3363.330.500.50
Kennesaw St.ASun1.811.8124.1424.14-0.94-0.94
Central MichiganMAC1.811.8170.3770.370.740.74
South DakotaSum1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
LongwoodBSth1.781.7829.0329.03-0.75-0.75
Northern KentuckyASun1.781.7840.7440.74-0.33-0.33
UNC GreensboroSC1.781.7827.5927.59-0.80-0.80
Illinois St.MVC1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
Robert MorrisNEC1.721.7259.3859.380.320.32
Texas A&MSEC1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
ToledoMAC0.490.4960.6160.610.100.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.340.3466.6766.670.110.11
Miami OHMAC0.290.2938.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.260.2620.6920.69-0.15-0.15
USC UpstateASun0.240.2463.3363.330.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2060.0060.000.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1865.5265.520.050.05
OhioMAC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.170.1771.8871.880.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
DrakeMVC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
IPFWSum0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1723.0823.08-0.09-0.09
BradleyMVC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
WisconsinB100.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
LipscombASun0.150.1539.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.150.1541.1841.18-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
AkronMAC0.140.1458.8258.820.030.03
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1459.2659.260.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
StetsonASun0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
BelmontOVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
IUPUISum0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
WoffordSC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1170.0070.000.040.04
MichiganB100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DaytonA100.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0938.4638.46-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MontanaBSky0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.090.0910.0010.00-0.07-0.07
FIUCUSA0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Iowa St.B120.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
BryantNEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
WagnerNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00