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Through games of Dec 5, 2016.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:236.3
Current RPI:219
Expected SOS:183
Current SOS:240
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:210
Expected OOC SOS:182



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-997.00.01%
18-11107.50.04%
17-12127.90.39%
16-13140.31.08%
15-14160.02.90%
14-15179.36.71%
13-16197.710.96%
12-17217.716.58%
11-18237.719.38%
10-19255.718.09%
9-20272.812.57%
8-21288.87.39%
7-22300.32.73%
6-23311.70.96%
5-24320.20.17%
4-25332.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Akron (81.3)MACH90-82W100%0.0
11-15Toledo (170.5)MACA103-98L0%0.0
11-18Jacksonville (198.4)ASunN79-54L0%0.0
11-19South Alabama (144.2)SBA84-75L0%0.0
11-20FIU (264.4)CUSAN78-73W100%0.0
11-26Canisius (197.6)MAACH84-90L0%0.0
11-30Robert Morris (243.1)NECA74-75W100%0.0
12-6Michigan St. (48.7)B10A0-04%-21.4
12-10American (288.9)PatA0-046%-1.2
12-14Niagara (268.7)MAACH0-060%3.1
12-20Ohio St. (38.4)B10A0-03%-22.2
12-29Milwaukee (226.5)HorzH0-059%2.9
12-31Green Bay (147.0)HorzH0-041%-2.7
1-5Northern Kentucky (166.5)HorzA0-026%-7.8
1-7Wright St. (166.1)HorzA0-027%-7.3
1-12Valparaiso (74.2)HorzH0-024%-8.6
1-14Illinois Chicago (241.5)HorzH0-052%0.7
1-16Detroit (294.8)HorzA0-051%0.2
1-20Green Bay (147.0)HorzA0-023%-8.9
1-22Milwaukee (226.5)HorzA0-039%-3.3
1-28Cleveland St. (249.5)HorzH0-063%4.0
2-2Oakland (93.8)HorzH0-021%-9.5
2-4Detroit (294.8)HorzH0-070%6.4
2-9Illinois Chicago (241.5)HorzA0-032%-5.6
2-11Valparaiso (74.2)HorzA0-011%-14.8
2-16Wright St. (166.1)HorzH0-047%-1.0
2-18Northern Kentucky (166.5)HorzH0-045%-1.6
2-21Oakland (93.8)HorzA0-09%-15.8
2-25Cleveland St. (249.5)HorzA0-043%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz28.2726.3845.4538.91-2.57-5.85
OaklandHorz0.004.4585.7176.410.002.35
MilwaukeeHorz0.454.4337.5036.75-0.11-1.17
DetroitHorz0.004.420.0019.50-0.00-2.70
Green BayHorz0.454.4242.8650.38-0.060.03
Wright St.Horz0.454.4262.5051.290.110.11
Cleveland St.Horz0.454.4228.5729.90-0.19-1.78
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4085.7174.290.002.14
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.3942.8644.32-0.00-0.50
Northern KentuckyHorz0.004.3957.1452.780.000.24
ToledoMAC7.141.9328.5746.12-3.06-0.15
JacksonvilleASun8.161.8457.1458.891.170.33
CanisiusMAAC7.141.8428.5742.38-3.06-0.28
Michigan St.B100.001.8455.5657.240.000.27
FIUCUSA8.101.7916.6737.03-5.40-0.46
South AlabamaSB8.101.7966.6756.512.700.23
Robert MorrisNEC7.141.7825.0042.96-3.57-0.25
AkronMAC7.141.7883.3371.424.760.76
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7825.0034.91-0.00-0.54
Ohio St.B100.001.7887.5067.590.000.63
AmericanPat0.511.7514.2930.52-0.36-0.68
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.3028.5741.64-0.00-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.2657.1454.410.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2416.6736.11-0.00-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.2142.8631.01-0.00-0.08
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2171.4356.410.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.2171.4358.580.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.2183.3371.480.000.09
Murray St.OVC0.000.1850.0061.230.000.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1850.0064.320.000.05
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1820.0022.08-0.00-0.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1850.0056.200.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1842.8645.86-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.1762.5050.590.000.00
KentuckySEC0.450.1787.5082.830.330.11
BuffaloMAC0.000.1733.3352.15-0.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.450.1725.0034.33-0.22-0.05
North FloridaASun0.000.1512.5035.01-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.510.1557.1450.090.070.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.400.1587.5076.181.050.08
DePaulBE0.400.1466.6735.740.13-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1442.8647.13-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.1444.4434.68-0.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.1475.0075.290.000.07
WisconsinB100.000.1477.7875.900.000.07
StetsonASun0.510.1225.0026.79-0.26-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1257.1471.900.000.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1275.0066.390.000.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.510.1242.8643.69-0.07-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.1250.0060.750.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.1225.0029.46-0.00-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3380.140.000.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0025.06-0.00-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.000.1271.4354.930.000.01
DuquesneA100.450.1244.4442.09-0.05-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.1266.6746.480.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.1187.5059.220.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1171.4359.900.000.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1157.1464.070.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.1187.5067.900.000.04
MonmouthMAAC0.450.1175.0070.290.220.05
NebraskaB100.000.1157.1444.820.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1128.5737.13-0.00-0.03
RiderMAAC0.000.1157.1451.010.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1157.1450.560.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.1133.3349.96-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.450.0912.5031.17-0.33-0.03
ElonCAA0.510.0971.4359.530.220.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0957.1458.830.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5034.91-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0942.8655.39-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.400.0966.6766.310.130.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0916.6730.41-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.400.0987.5058.670.300.02
LehighPat0.400.0942.8666.59-0.060.03
NavyPat0.000.0925.0037.38-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.97-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0957.1471.550.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0950.0044.810.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.65-0.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.450.0975.0054.990.220.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.090.0017.13-0.00-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.0950.0054.480.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0016.82-0.00-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0933.3339.82-0.00-0.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0933.3354.84-0.000.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0816.6739.71-0.00-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0871.4355.810.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0875.0066.440.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0885.7145.270.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0812.5025.29-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.31-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.13-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.830.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.39-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.960.0657.1448.420.14-0.00
DenverSum0.450.0642.8645.37-0.06-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.22-0.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.70-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.75-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0650.0064.470.000.02
ColgatePat0.000.0612.5029.43-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.890.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.680.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.300.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.760.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.06-0.000.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0637.5047.02-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.000.0642.8635.20-0.00-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.540.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0642.8645.99-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.62-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7872.080.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.65-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0611.1120.28-0.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.37-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.730.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.070.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.92-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.200.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.510.0625.0020.75-0.26-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.470.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.17-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.930.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0650.0045.480.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.400.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.62-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.370.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3330.48-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.760.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.030.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.61-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.960.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.500.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.76-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.77-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.660.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5069.240.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.43-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0040.38-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.73-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0633.3332.88-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.500.000.03
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.90-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.45-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.180.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0671.4370.390.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.760.000.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0637.5033.64-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.160.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0051.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.51-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.450.030.0020.80-0.45-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.80-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6729.76-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.510.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.85-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.510.03100.0076.680.510.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0092.290.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6744.42-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.370.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0316.6729.78-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0357.1472.470.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.63-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.510.0342.8647.76-0.07-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.640.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4367.900.000.01
RadfordBSth0.510.0328.5734.13-0.22-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0070.650.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.380.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.510.03100.0078.710.510.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
UNLVMWC0.510.0362.5043.350.13-0.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0084.840.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.450.0342.8644.47-0.06-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.450.0342.8645.35-0.06-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.450.0383.3377.140.300.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.12-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.820.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.260.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0355.5647.040.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.97-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.540.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.500.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.400.0314.2942.75-0.28-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.36-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.88-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.42-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.400.0333.3356.59-0.130.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0056.780.000.00
RichmondA100.400.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0344.4436.52-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.450.0385.7169.610.320.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.54-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.400.0342.8653.19-0.060.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.530.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0357.1467.190.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.07-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.690.000.02