live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:214.7
Current RPI:193
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:228
Current Record:5-6
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-893.00.01%
19-989.20.04%
18-10107.60.16%
17-11127.00.68%
16-12144.13.17%
15-13162.17.82%
14-14181.814.34%
13-15201.719.83%
12-16222.021.70%
11-17242.216.76%
10-18260.39.98%
9-19277.73.94%
8-20291.01.26%
7-21304.10.27%
6-22316.50.02%
5-23318.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Kent St. (118.1)MACH61-69L0%0.0
11-18Central Michigan (92.9)MACA75-63L0%0.0
11-21Eastern Michigan (116.8)MACA71-62L0%0.0
11-22Longwood (317.4)BSthN72-82W100%0.0
11-23UNC Greensboro (282.7)SCN76-67W100%0.0
11-26UMKC (270.3)WACH66-63W100%0.0
11-29Illinois St. (70.2)MVCA85-73L0%0.0
12-2Robert Morris (272.3)NECA81-89W100%0.0
12-5South Dakota (254.7)SumA79-87W100%0.0
12-13Texas A&M (58.1)SECA81-63L0%0.0
12-17Kennesaw St. (295.2)ASunH84-90L0%0.0
12-31Northern Kentucky (269.6)ASunH0-080%9.8
1-2Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzA0-055%1.4
1-4Valparaiso (100.6)HorzA0-016%-11.9
1-8Wright St. (112.2)HorzH0-047%-0.8
1-11Green Bay (43.7)HorzA0-08%-16.5
1-14Milwaukee (259.0)HorzA0-041%-2.6
1-17Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzH0-047%-0.9
1-20Valparaiso (100.6)HorzH0-039%-3.2
1-24Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzH0-081%10.1
1-29Detroit (156.8)HorzA0-023%-8.5
2-1Oakland (233.6)HorzH0-069%5.9
2-4Cleveland St. (144.9)HorzA0-021%-9.6
2-11Green Bay (43.7)HorzH0-025%-7.8
2-15Wright St. (112.2)HorzA0-021%-9.6
2-21Detroit (156.8)HorzH0-051%0.2
2-25Oakland (233.6)HorzA0-040%-2.9
2-28Milwaukee (259.0)HorzH0-070%6.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz27.8526.3850.9445.100.53-2.58
MilwaukeeHorz0.254.5133.3333.50-0.08-1.49
OaklandHorz0.324.4930.0030.55-0.13-1.75
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.324.4918.1820.48-0.21-2.65
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.4633.3348.49-0.00-0.13
DetroitHorz0.004.4644.4447.84-0.00-0.19
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4580.0069.400.001.73
Wright St.Horz0.004.4560.0056.950.000.62
Green BayHorz0.004.4575.0078.100.002.50
Eastern MichiganMAC5.032.0166.6762.001.680.48
Kent St.MAC4.751.9566.6759.991.580.39
Central MichiganMAC4.551.8883.3369.163.030.72
Kennesaw St.ASun4.871.8830.0031.30-1.95-0.70
LongwoodBSth5.121.8522.2227.52-2.85-0.83
UNC GreensboroSC5.101.8525.0039.15-2.55-0.40
South DakotaSum4.551.8530.0040.36-1.82-0.36
UMKCWAC4.551.8525.0043.42-2.27-0.24
Northern KentuckyASun0.001.8525.0033.67-0.00-0.60
Illinois St.MVC4.551.7962.5063.031.140.47
Robert MorrisNEC4.551.7933.3340.80-1.52-0.33
Texas A&MSEC4.551.7975.0064.202.270.51
ToledoMAC0.230.4460.0059.420.050.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.3275.0067.580.000.11
Ball St.MAC0.000.2928.5736.95-0.00-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.230.2930.0028.50-0.09-0.12
Western CarolinaSC0.000.2520.0041.46-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2362.5054.980.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.2260.0064.620.000.06
OhioMAC0.000.2042.8638.11-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1975.0071.730.000.08
Georgia St.SB0.000.1962.5071.290.000.08
BuffaloMAC0.230.1975.0069.120.110.07
DrakeMVC0.000.1920.0019.99-0.00-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1977.7871.110.000.08
Chicago St.WAC0.000.190.0011.40-0.00-0.15
BradleyMVC0.550.1933.3332.09-0.18-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1944.4445.59-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1837.5031.95-0.00-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1750.0032.620.00-0.06
WisconsinB100.000.1690.9188.390.000.13
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1618.1846.16-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.320.1636.3644.53-0.09-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.430.1644.4451.58-0.050.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.480.1662.5066.700.120.05
DePaulBE0.250.1660.0034.110.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.1657.1456.900.000.02
MissouriSEC0.250.1544.4431.58-0.03-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.320.1571.4359.920.140.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.320.1560.0049.500.06-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.1360.0056.560.000.02
NorthwesternB100.320.1360.0040.620.06-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.580.1342.8638.26-0.08-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1310.0018.58-0.00-0.08
LipscombASun0.000.1325.0042.64-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1344.4456.91-0.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.1310.0027.42-0.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.000.1360.0062.970.000.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.250.1371.4363.890.110.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1342.8649.98-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.1320.0026.33-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.460.1333.3331.58-0.15-0.05
DaytonA100.580.1277.7870.120.320.05
MercerSC0.210.1237.5042.45-0.05-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1244.4436.35-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.1255.5656.400.020.02
UCFAmer0.000.1255.5634.940.00-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1287.5085.320.000.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.320.1020.0038.24-0.19-0.02
MaineAE0.320.1011.1121.08-0.25-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.320.100.0023.71-0.32-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1037.5038.60-0.00-0.02
MichiganB100.320.0955.5642.550.04-0.01
Michigan St.B100.320.0972.7373.150.150.04
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0937.5040.20-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.210.0944.4451.04-0.020.00
James MadisonCAA0.230.0970.0060.790.090.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0925.0052.09-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0955.5661.790.000.02
WoffordSC0.210.0977.7876.240.110.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.960.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.250.0970.0058.600.100.02
PresbyterianBSth0.250.090.008.63-0.25-0.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.0910.0030.45-0.17-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0933.3332.85-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.250.0988.8963.800.200.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.0944.4455.75-0.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.0962.5054.970.060.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0937.5041.20-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.210.0933.3340.31-0.07-0.02
VCUA100.250.0970.0071.420.100.04
YaleIvy0.320.0972.7367.180.150.03
Arizona St.P120.250.0960.0053.820.050.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0966.6745.670.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0737.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0790.0075.520.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0636.3638.88-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8655.64-0.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.59-0.00-0.03
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.410.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.22-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0637.5047.87-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.250.0662.5056.410.060.01
North CarolinaACC0.480.0670.0071.630.190.03
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0080.590.000.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.590.000.03
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3338.99-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.40-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0034.77-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0085.330.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0641.6744.33-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0636.3664.92-0.000.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0666.6757.860.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.0078.050.000.03
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6752.340.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.810.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.190.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1828.02-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5046.50-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0644.4444.78-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.230.0610.0020.91-0.18-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.19-0.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0085.310.000.04
WinthropBSth0.000.0628.5747.31-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.250.0660.0037.220.05-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.460.0650.0074.000.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5747.24-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0622.2230.85-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0628.5741.17-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.930.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0633.3344.71-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0064.110.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0650.0058.360.000.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0622.2240.44-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0650.0062.270.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0614.2933.54-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.79-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0066.940.000.01
IndianaB100.250.0380.0057.630.150.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.250.0350.0053.700.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.030.0028.26-0.21-0.01
ButlerBE0.210.0380.0072.550.120.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.210.0320.0028.20-0.12-0.01
CaliforniaP120.210.0390.0066.690.170.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0325.0044.59-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0355.5661.390.000.01
CreightonBE0.210.0372.7351.560.090.00
DartmouthIvy0.230.0344.4447.53-0.03-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.210.0344.4439.74-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.230.0366.6766.340.080.01
IllinoisB100.000.0372.7365.930.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.340.000.01
IowaB100.230.0372.7362.590.100.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.210.0322.2228.69-0.11-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.250.0388.8981.310.200.02
Seton HallBE0.250.0390.0067.260.200.01
StanfordP120.210.0375.0057.570.100.00
SyracuseACC0.210.0366.6757.800.070.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.250.0330.0037.28-0.10-0.01
UNLVMWC0.210.0375.0050.750.100.00
Utah St.MWC0.250.0355.5650.970.030.00
Weber St.BSky0.250.0328.5742.17-0.11-0.00
BaylorB120.250.0390.0073.870.200.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.0350.0044.900.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.030.007.39-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.230.0328.5731.23-0.10-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.230.0366.6759.460.080.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
LafayettePat0.230.0375.0069.820.110.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.230.0333.3345.28-0.08-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.250.030.0038.46-0.25-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.250.030.0037.73-0.25-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01