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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Youngstown St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:237.0
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:210
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:170
Expected OOC SOS:226



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17237.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunA57-73W100%0.0
11-9FIU (202.0)CUSAN72-74W100%0.0
11-10Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCN67-75W100%0.0
11-17Massachusetts (23.0)A10A85-69L0%0.0
11-27Kent St. (213.0)MACA83-79L0%0.0
11-30Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH86-88L0%0.0
12-4Robert Morris (129.0)NECH84-76W100%0.0
12-7UMKC (248.0)WACA88-80L0%0.0
12-14Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA91-73L0%0.0
12-17Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH71-59W100%0.0
12-21St. John's (67.0)BEA96-87L0%0.0
12-29South Dakota (255.0)SumH85-59W100%0.0
1-2Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA82-76L0%0.0
1-4Green Bay (58.0)HorzA85-69L0%0.0
1-7UIC (315.0)HorzA62-75W100%0.0
1-13Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH67-66W100%0.0
1-18Detroit (230.0)HorzH77-63W100%0.0
1-23Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH71-74L0%0.0
1-25Wright St. (173.0)HorzH68-67W100%0.0
1-31Oakland (181.0)HorzA86-85L0%0.0
2-5Wright St. (173.0)HorzA77-67L0%0.0
2-9Detroit (230.0)HorzA83-81L0%0.0
2-13Green Bay (58.0)HorzH40-71L0%0.0
2-15UIC (315.0)HorzH59-56W100%0.0
2-20Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH88-83W100%0.0
2-22Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA68-66L0%0.0
2-25Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA70-69L0%0.0
3-1Oakland (181.0)HorzH81-87L0%0.0
3-4Oakland (181.0)HorzA96-92L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Youngstown St.Horz26.4026.4041.7441.74-4.36-4.36
OaklandHorz6.066.0628.5728.57-2.60-2.60
MilwaukeeHorz4.584.5861.2961.291.031.03
Wright St.Horz4.534.5356.6756.670.600.60
ValparaisoHorz4.424.4246.4346.43-0.32-0.32
Cleveland St.Horz4.414.4164.2964.291.261.26
DetroitHorz4.384.3835.7135.71-1.25-1.25
Green BayHorz4.384.3876.0076.002.282.28
UICHorz4.364.3614.8114.81-3.07-3.07
Robert MorrisNEC1.871.8763.6463.640.510.51
UMKCWAC1.831.8332.1432.14-0.65-0.65
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.821.8273.3373.330.850.85
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.811.8117.2417.24-1.19-1.19
Kent St.MAC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Kennesaw St.ASun1.811.8114.2914.29-1.29-1.29
FIUCUSA1.811.8148.1548.15-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum1.791.7934.6234.62-0.55-0.55
Austin PeayOVC1.751.7533.3333.33-0.58-0.58
MassachusettsA101.721.7274.1974.190.830.83
PittsburghACC1.721.7272.7372.730.780.78
St. John'sBE1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.2856.2556.250.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.260.2632.1432.14-0.09-0.09
ToledoMAC0.230.2381.2581.250.140.14
OhioMAC0.220.2266.6766.670.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.170.1759.2659.260.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
WisconsinB100.170.1778.7978.790.100.10
James MadisonCAA0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Western CarolinaSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.090.0963.6463.640.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
LipscombASun0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
North FloridaASun0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0913.7913.79-0.06-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.080.0864.2964.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.04-0.04
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.050.05
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
BucknellPat0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
VMIBSth0.050.0555.5655.560.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01