Youngstown St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	170.0
Current RPI:	170
Expected SOS:	186
Current SOS:	186
Current Record:	14-15
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	237
Expected OOC SOS:	246

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	170.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Youngstown St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Samford (269.0)	SC	A	69-76	W	100%
11-18	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	53-49	W	100%
11-23	Penn St. (161.0)	B10	A	82-71	L	0%
11-26	St. Francis PA (312.0)	NEC	A	59-60	W	100%
12-1	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	A	61-64	W	100%
12-3	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	A	63-62	L	0%
12-10	Buffalo (78.0)	MAC	A	80-72	L	0%
12-17	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	A	86-77	L	0%
12-19	Akron (55.0)	MAC	A	88-62	L	0%
12-22	Robert Morris (99.0)	NEC	H	56-59	L	0%
12-31	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	67-73	W	100%
1-5	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	H	68-64	W	100%
1-7	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	H	71-50	W	100%
1-13	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	A	76-62	L	0%
1-15	Butler (113.0)	Horz	A	71-55	L	0%
1-20	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	H	68-66	W	100%
1-22	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	H	77-47	W	100%
1-28	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	H	47-67	L	0%
1-31	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	A	65-73	W	100%
2-2	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	A	72-68	L	0%
2-5	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	A	63-80	W	100%
2-9	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	59-68	L	0%
2-11	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	71-53	W	100%
2-14	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	A	71-65	L	0%
2-18	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	A	71-68	L	0%
2-23	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	H	61-54	W	100%
2-25	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	H	74-76	L	0%
2-28	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	H	77-60	W	100%
3-2	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	N	93-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Youngstown St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Youngstown St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Youngstown St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Youngstown St.	Horz	26.56	26.56	51.16	51.16	0.62	0.62
Detroit	Horz	6.37	6.37	60.00	60.00	1.27	1.27
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	6.12	6.12	48.00	48.00	-0.24	-0.24
Butler	Horz	4.64	4.64	54.84	54.84	0.45	0.45
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.63	4.63	68.97	68.97	1.76	1.76
Valparaiso	Horz	4.63	4.63	65.52	65.52	1.44	1.44
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.58	4.58	62.07	62.07	1.11	1.11
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.57	4.57	22.22	22.22	-2.54	-2.54
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.54	4.54	23.08	23.08	-2.44	-2.44
Wright St.	Horz	4.52	4.52	37.93	37.93	-1.09	-1.09
Akron	MAC	2.00	2.00	64.52	64.52	0.58	0.58
Toledo	MAC	1.96	1.96	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	1.84	1.84	69.70	69.70	0.72	0.72
Buffalo	MAC	1.80	1.80	62.96	62.96	0.47	0.47
Austin Peay	OVC	1.80	1.80	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.77	1.77	21.43	21.43	-1.01	-1.01
Penn St.	B10	1.72	1.72	35.48	35.48	-0.50	-0.50
Samford	SC	1.72	1.72	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
UC Riverside	BW	1.72	1.72	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Ohio	MAC	0.31	0.31	78.79	78.79	0.18	0.18
Bowling Green	MAC	0.30	0.30	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.28	0.28	13.79	13.79	-0.21	-0.21
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.27	0.27	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.26	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.25	0.25	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.22	0.22	27.59	27.59	-0.10	-0.10
Wisconsin	B10	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Ball St.	MAC	0.16	0.16	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.15	0.15	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Indiana St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Monmouth	NEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Furman	SC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.11	0.11	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
George Washington	A10	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	18.75	18.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00