Virginia Military Inst

Conference:	BSth
Expected RPI:	264.1
Current RPI:	260
Expected SOS:	314
Current SOS:	317
Current Record:	9-11
Expected Record:	11-15
Current Conf Record:	7-6
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.97%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	2-5
Expected OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC RPI:	305
Expected OOC SOS:	330

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-11	190.5	0.30%
14-12	212.0	3.54%
13-13	233.7	14.49%
12-14	256.0	29.87%
11-15	275.3	33.10%
10-16	290.2	15.93%
9-17	302.0	2.76%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Virginia Military Inst.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	The Citadel (331.4)	SC	N	103-100	W	100%	0.0
11-12	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	75-65	L	0%	0.0
11-19	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	84-79	W	100%	0.0
11-23	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	107-74	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	A	87-78	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	A	114-81	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Pittsburgh (74.5)	BE	A	97-70	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Longwood (311.5)	ind	A	110-89	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Old Dominion (126.1)	CAA	A	81-73	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	H	78-70	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	H	76-72	W	100%	0.0
1-5	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	A	94-85	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	91-84	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	H	71-57	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Radford (335.2)	BSth	H	80-76	W	100%	0.0
1-19	High Point (283.4)	BSth	H	88-77	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Campbell (174.5)	BSth	A	80-73	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Radford (335.2)	BSth	A	60-65	W	100%	0.0
2-2	NC Asheville (115.4)	BSth	H	86-89	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	86-79	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Presbyterian (253.5)	BSth	A	0-0		31%	-5.4
2-11	Gardner Webb (270.8)	BSth	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-14	Liberty (309.6)	BSth	A	0-0		47%	-0.7
2-18	William & Mary (304.7)	CAA	H	0-0		76%	7.8
2-23	Charleston Southern (151.0)	BSth	H	0-0		33%	-4.8
2-25	Coastal Carolina (116.0)	BSth	H	0-0		30%	-5.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Virginia Military Inst's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Virginia Military Inst's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Virginia Military Inst.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	26.47	26.46	47.14	45.34	-1.51	-2.47
Liberty	BSth	3.51	4.93	28.57	27.27	-1.51	-2.24
Radford	BSth	5.79	4.86	9.52	14.07	-4.69	-3.49
Charleston Southern	BSth	3.41	4.85	52.63	58.40	0.18	0.81
Coastal Carolina	BSth	3.29	4.85	70.59	70.86	1.36	2.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	3.41	4.83	36.36	39.05	-0.93	-1.06
Presbyterian	BSth	3.37	4.83	42.86	44.37	-0.48	-0.54
NC Asheville	BSth	5.79	4.82	65.00	65.05	1.74	1.45
Winthrop	BSth	5.84	4.81	33.33	33.42	-1.95	-1.60
High Point	BSth	3.57	3.08	33.33	34.01	-1.19	-0.98
Campbell	BSth	3.48	3.05	54.17	54.12	0.29	0.25
William & Mary	CAA	0.16	2.12	12.50	13.09	-0.12	-1.57
The Citadel	SC	2.69	2.11	10.00	11.88	-2.15	-1.61
Old Dominion	CAA	2.50	1.99	58.33	56.90	0.42	0.27
Air Force	MWC	2.50	1.92	44.44	39.85	-0.28	-0.39
Longwood	ind	2.50	1.92	26.32	25.07	-1.18	-0.96
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.50	1.92	14.29	16.94	-1.79	-1.27
Ohio St.	B10	2.50	1.92	86.36	84.97	1.82	1.35
Pittsburgh	BE	2.50	1.92	59.09	56.76	0.45	0.26
College of Charleston	SC	0.31	0.29	58.33	59.98	0.05	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.28	0.27	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.29	0.25	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.23	0.23	10.00	14.93	-0.18	-0.16
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.23	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.06
East Carolina	CUSA	0.22	0.21	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.18	0.18	59.09	57.93	0.03	0.03
Army	Pat	0.24	0.18	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.18	34.78	37.24	-0.05	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.18	0.17	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.22	0.17	69.57	65.47	0.09	0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.16	79.17	78.10	0.06	0.09
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.16	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.18	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.22	0.16	75.00	75.78	0.11	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.21	0.16	76.00	72.50	0.11	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.15	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.06
Davidson	SC	0.12	0.14	76.19	76.76	0.06	0.07
Furman	SC	0.18	0.14	47.62	48.83	-0.01	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.23	0.14	45.45	44.66	-0.02	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.14	27.27	35.02	-0.05	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.14	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.13	0.00	4.02	-0.06	-0.12
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.16	0.13	47.83	50.65	-0.01	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.13	4.00	5.26	-0.14	-0.11
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.13	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.13	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.07
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.11	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.17	0.11	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.10	9.52	13.19	-0.10	-0.08
Virginia	ACC	0.17	0.10	81.82	76.80	0.11	0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.10	70.83	64.42	0.07	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.10	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.17	0.10	54.55	56.09	0.02	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.10	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.10	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.10	86.36	83.09	0.08	0.07
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.10	79.17	75.98	0.10	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.10	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.17	0.10	60.00	60.42	0.03	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.16	0.10	95.83	92.57	0.15	0.08
Long Island	NEC	0.16	0.10	70.83	71.05	0.07	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.16	0.10	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.11	0.10	60.00	62.49	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.10	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.09	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.08	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.07	0.08	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.07	72.73	71.71	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.07	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.03	0.04	0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	85.71	78.05	0.05	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.05
Elon	SC	0.12	0.07	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.07	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.07	34.78	33.46	-0.04	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.07	86.96	83.16	0.08	0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.07	81.82	77.20	0.00	0.04
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.11	0.07	18.18	15.01	-0.07	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.07	4.76	9.95	-0.10	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.07	17.39	19.81	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.11	0.07	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.07	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.00	0.07	34.78	38.42	-0.00	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.07	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.07	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.07	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.12	0.07	82.61	84.57	0.08	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.12	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.02	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.07	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.07	65.22	60.58	0.02	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.07	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.07	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.07	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.07	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.07	17.39	20.97	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.07	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.11	0.07	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.07	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.07	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.07	35.00	38.58	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.07	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.07	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.11	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.03	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.06	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.05
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.00	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.00	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.04	17.39	24.41	-0.04	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.04	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.04	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.04	75.00	76.00	0.03	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.04	27.27	23.80	-0.03	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.04	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.04	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.04	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.04	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.04	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.04	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.04	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.04	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.04	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.04	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.04	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.04	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.04	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
American	Pat	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.04	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.03	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.00	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.00	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.00	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.03	95.83	92.01	0.05	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.61	0.02	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00