Prairie View A&M

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	281.7
Current RPI:	279
Expected SOS:	332
Current SOS:	311
Current Record:	7-13
Expected Record:	11-17
Current Conf Record:	6-4
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	5.78%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-8
Current OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC Record:	1-9
Expected OOC RPI:	259
Expected OOC SOS:	35

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-13	225.4	0.29%
14-14	243.4	3.58%
13-15	261.2	15.47%
12-16	276.1	28.50%
11-17	288.1	29.08%
10-18	297.9	17.00%
9-19	307.2	5.09%
8-20	316.6	0.92%
7-21	325.3	0.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-17	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	A	68-59	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	A	60-47	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	A	90-51	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Longwood (311.5)	ind	N	67-70	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Wofford (173.4)	SC	N	49-56	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Baylor (6.8)	B12	A	90-54	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Iowa St. (39.6)	B12	A	84-59	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	N	50-53	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Oregon (86.8)	P12	A	74-66	L	0%	0.0
12-22	North Carolina Central (240.5)	MEAC	N	58-69	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	65-73	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	H	55-47	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	A	84-49	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	A	66-72	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	A	64-81	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	H	57-81	L	0%	0.0
1-23	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	H	76-75	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	A	57-64	W	100%	0.0
1-30	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	A	64-54	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	73-67	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	0-0		68%	5.0
2-13	Grambling (341.3)	SWAC	H	0-0		91%	14.5
2-18	Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		45%	-1.4
2-20	Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)	SWAC	A	0-0		13%	-12.2
2-25	Alabama A&M (332.6)	SWAC	H	0-0		70%	5.8
2-27	Alabama St. (301.5)	SWAC	H	0-0		63%	3.5
3-1	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	A	0-0		37%	-3.5
3-3	Alcorn St. (333.4)	SWAC	A	0-0		55%	1.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	26.32	26.45	39.77	44.36	-5.38	-2.98
Texas Southern	SWAC	5.56	4.62	30.00	41.57	-2.22	-0.78
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	3.17	4.62	47.62	55.64	-0.15	0.52
Alabama St.	SWAC	3.18	4.62	31.58	38.73	-1.17	-1.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	3.18	4.62	20.00	26.21	-1.91	-2.20
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	3.13	4.60	18.18	24.19	-1.99	-2.37
Grambling	SWAC	3.11	4.58	15.79	16.58	-2.13	-3.06
Southern	SWAC	3.11	4.58	42.11	43.43	-0.49	-0.60
Alcorn St.	SWAC	3.10	4.57	17.65	23.08	-2.01	-2.46
Alabama A&M	SWAC	3.10	4.57	12.50	23.81	-2.32	-2.39
Baylor	B12	2.73	2.00	90.48	83.29	2.21	1.33
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.69	1.91	50.00	52.78	0.00	0.11
Brigham Young	WCC	2.73	1.91	73.91	75.15	1.31	0.96
Iowa St.	B12	2.56	1.90	72.73	67.38	1.16	0.66
Oregon	P12	2.70	1.89	68.18	63.31	0.98	0.50
Longwood	ind	2.67	1.88	26.32	25.07	-1.26	-0.94
North Carolina Central	MEAC	2.63	1.85	35.29	41.68	-0.77	-0.31
Nevada	WAC	2.61	1.85	80.00	75.55	1.57	0.95
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.56	1.82	47.62	47.01	-0.12	-0.11
Wofford	SC	2.50	1.79	57.14	56.42	0.36	0.23
Texas A&M	B12	0.37	0.28	52.38	46.15	0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.26	0.23	61.90	58.59	0.06	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.25	0.22	31.82	25.98	-0.09	-0.10
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.24	0.19	43.48	43.31	-0.03	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.18	0.19	34.78	38.42	-0.05	-0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.19	69.57	68.90	0.07	0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.23	0.18	69.57	65.15	0.09	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.22	0.17	45.45	40.70	-0.02	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.25	0.16	33.33	33.82	-0.08	-0.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.12	0.16	10.00	14.93	-0.10	-0.12
Michigan	B10	0.18	0.16	72.73	66.81	0.08	0.05
Florida International	SB	0.19	0.16	33.33	37.16	-0.06	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.15	90.91	87.74	0.18	0.12
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.17	0.15	38.10	37.86	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.23	0.15	61.90	55.14	0.05	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.20	0.13	19.05	22.37	-0.12	-0.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.18	0.13	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.13	45.83	46.68	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.13	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	63.64	56.71	0.03	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.18	0.12	77.27	77.67	0.10	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.12	0.12	69.57	65.47	0.05	0.04
California	P12	0.11	0.12	75.00	74.61	0.06	0.06
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	82.61	77.63	0.08	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.12	75.00	73.97	0.08	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.12	66.67	62.65	0.06	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.12	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.17	0.12	78.26	78.39	0.09	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.12	72.73	68.28	0.05	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.11	0.12	91.30	87.18	0.09	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.12	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.17	0.12	60.87	61.37	0.04	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.10	38.10	42.78	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.13	0.10	76.19	75.94	0.07	0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.13	0.10	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.10	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.10	27.78	29.58	-0.06	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.12	0.10	57.14	49.54	0.02	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.09	81.82	81.49	0.03	0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.17	0.09	17.39	22.00	-0.11	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.09	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.11	0.09	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.09	21.74	21.70	-0.06	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.09	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.09	30.00	31.54	-0.05	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.12	0.09	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.09	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.11	0.09	69.57	66.54	0.04	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.17	0.09	34.78	37.24	-0.05	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.11	0.09	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.11	0.09	18.18	15.01	-0.07	-0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.07	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	85.71	82.18	0.05	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.07	0.07	18.18	21.13	-0.05	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.07	0.07	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.15	0.07	22.22	27.62	-0.08	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	26.32	29.79	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.07	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.07	36.36	38.48	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.07	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	ind	0.00	0.07	23.53	33.28	-0.00	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.07	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.07	47.83	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.12	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.05	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.04	-0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.06	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.05	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.11	0.06	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.02	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.11	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.02	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.06	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.09	-0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.06	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.11	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.04	0.01
Denver	SB	0.11	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.05	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.03	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.02	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.04	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	75.78	0.00	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.00	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.00	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.03	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.05	0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.03	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.04	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.05	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.05	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.00	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.00	0.03	79.17	80.10	0.00	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.01	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	54.17	57.20	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.03	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.02
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.02	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.00	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Elon	SC	0.00	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.00	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.03	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.03	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.03	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.03	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.03	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01