live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:334.0
Current RPI:334
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:318
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-14
Current OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC Record:0-12
Expected OOC RPI:338
Expected OOC SOS:140



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24334.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13VCU (37.0)A10A75-50L0%0.0
11-18Houston (87.0)AmerA110-69L0%0.0
11-20Bryant (320.0)NECA71-58L0%0.0
11-21Radford (192.0)BSthN56-64L0%0.0
11-25Wisconsin (43.0)B10A85-67L0%0.0
11-28UNLV (147.0)MWCA80-62L0%0.0
12-2Baylor (25.0)B12A80-41L0%0.0
12-11TCU (174.0)B12A73-55L0%0.0
12-14Tulane (227.0)AmerA63-49L0%0.0
12-16Texas St. (238.0)SBH44-62L0%0.0
12-22Nebraska (165.0)B10A81-50L0%0.0
12-28Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAA77-58L0%0.0
1-2Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH70-73L0%0.0
1-4Southern (186.0)SWACH71-65W100%0.0
1-9Texas Southern (190.0)SWACA64-38L0%0.0
1-16Grambling St. (350.0)SWACA66-63L0%0.0
1-18Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA60-57L0%0.0
1-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACH44-45L0%0.0
1-25Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH73-76L0%0.0
1-30Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACA83-69L0%0.0
2-1Alabama St. (265.0)SWACA83-77L0%0.0
2-6Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH59-55W100%0.0
2-13Grambling St. (350.0)SWACH60-56W100%0.0
2-15Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH66-80L0%0.0
2-20Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACA55-57W100%0.0
2-22Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACA61-63W100%0.0
2-27Alabama St. (265.0)SWACH68-73L0%0.0
2-29Alabama A&M (332.0)SWACH85-65W100%0.0
3-3Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACA81-64L0%0.0
3-5Southern (186.0)SWACA71-79W100%0.0
3-10Jackson St. (221.0)SWACN69-51L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC26.3926.3924.8124.81-13.29-13.29
Jackson St.SWAC5.845.8448.2848.28-0.20-0.20
SouthernSWAC4.364.3665.5265.521.351.35
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC4.354.3521.2121.21-2.51-2.51
Texas SouthernSWAC4.264.2656.6756.670.570.57
Alabama A&MSWAC4.244.2434.6234.62-1.30-1.30
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC4.214.2122.5822.58-2.31-2.31
Grambling St.SWAC4.194.1911.5411.54-3.22-3.22
Alabama St.SWAC4.174.1737.0437.04-1.08-1.08
Alcorn St.SWAC4.164.1642.3142.31-0.64-0.64
TulaneAmer1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Louisiana TechCUSA1.801.8068.9768.970.680.68
BaylorB121.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
NebraskaB101.761.7645.4545.45-0.16-0.16
HoustonAmer1.681.6870.0070.000.670.67
WisconsinB101.681.6861.2961.290.380.38
VCUA101.671.6769.7069.700.660.66
TCUB121.661.6634.3834.38-0.52-0.52
RadfordBSth1.641.6446.4346.43-0.12-0.12
BryantNEC1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
Texas St.SB1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
UNLVMWC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
MemphisAmer0.230.2355.8855.880.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.2232.2632.26-0.08-0.08
Virginia TechACC0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1879.3179.310.110.11
IndianaB100.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Texas TechB120.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
MarquetteBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
MercerSC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Ohio St.B100.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
UTSACUSA0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
East CarolinaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
OhioMAC0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
OklahomaB120.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
TexasB120.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
UCFAmer0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1285.2985.290.090.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
NorthwesternB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1264.2964.290.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1157.6957.690.020.02
WinthropBSth0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.1082.1482.140.060.06
Kansas St.B120.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
MarylandB100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
SeattleWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
DavidsonA100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0329.1729.17-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
AmericanPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
North FloridaASun0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02