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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:281.7
Current RPI:279
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:311
Current Record:7-13
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:5.78%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-8
Current OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-13225.40.29%
14-14243.43.58%
13-15261.215.47%
12-16276.128.50%
11-17288.129.08%
10-18297.917.00%
9-19307.25.09%
8-20316.60.92%
7-21325.30.06%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)ASunA68-59L0%0.0
11-20Nevada (63.3)WACA60-47L0%0.0
11-22Brigham Young (44.9)WCCA90-51L0%0.0
11-25Longwood (311.5)indN67-70L0%0.0
11-26Wofford (173.4)SCN49-56L0%0.0
11-29Baylor (6.8)B12A90-54L0%0.0
12-6Iowa St. (39.6)B12A84-59L0%0.0
12-20Stephen F. Austin (244.7)SlndN50-53W100%0.0
12-21Oregon (86.8)P12A74-66L0%0.0
12-22North Carolina Central (240.5)MEACN58-69L0%0.0
1-3Southern (294.1)SWACH65-73L0%0.0
1-5Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACH55-47W100%0.0
1-7Texas Southern (244.5)SWACA84-49L0%0.0
1-14Jackson St. (308.4)SWACA66-72W100%0.0
1-16Grambling (341.3)SWACA64-81W100%0.0
1-21Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACH57-81L0%0.0
1-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACH76-75W100%0.0
1-28Alabama St. (301.5)SWACA57-64W100%0.0
1-30Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACA64-54L0%0.0
2-4Texas Southern (244.5)SWACH73-67W100%0.0
2-11Jackson St. (308.4)SWACH0-068%5.0
2-13Grambling (341.3)SWACH0-091%14.5
2-18Arkansas Pine Bluff (327.1)SWACA0-045%-1.4
2-20Mississippi Valley St. (158.6)SWACA0-013%-12.2
2-25Alabama A&M (332.6)SWACH0-070%5.8
2-27Alabama St. (301.5)SWACH0-063%3.5
3-1Southern (294.1)SWACA0-037%-3.5
3-3Alcorn St. (333.4)SWACA0-055%1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC26.3226.4539.7744.36-5.38-2.98
Texas SouthernSWAC5.564.6230.0041.57-2.22-0.78
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.174.6247.6255.64-0.150.52
Alabama St.SWAC3.184.6231.5838.73-1.17-1.04
Jackson St.SWAC3.184.6220.0026.21-1.91-2.20
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.134.6018.1824.19-1.99-2.37
GramblingSWAC3.114.5815.7916.58-2.13-3.06
SouthernSWAC3.114.5842.1143.43-0.49-0.60
Alcorn St.SWAC3.104.5717.6523.08-2.01-2.46
Alabama A&MSWAC3.104.5712.5023.81-2.32-2.39
BaylorB122.732.0090.4883.292.211.33
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.691.9150.0052.780.000.11
Brigham YoungWCC2.731.9173.9175.151.310.96
Iowa St.B122.561.9072.7367.381.160.66
OregonP122.701.8968.1863.310.980.50
Longwoodind2.671.8826.3225.07-1.26-0.94
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.631.8535.2941.68-0.77-0.31
NevadaWAC2.611.8580.0075.551.570.95
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.561.8247.6247.01-0.12-0.11
WoffordSC2.501.7957.1456.420.360.23
Texas A&MB120.370.2852.3846.150.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.260.2361.9058.590.060.04
Texas TechB120.250.2231.8225.98-0.09-0.10
Texas El PasoCUSA0.240.1943.4843.31-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1934.7838.42-0.05-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.1969.5768.900.070.07
ArkansasSEC0.230.1869.5765.150.090.06
Oklahoma St.B120.220.1745.4540.70-0.02-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.250.1633.3333.82-0.08-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1610.0014.93-0.10-0.12
MichiganB100.180.1672.7366.810.080.05
Florida InternationalSB0.190.1633.3337.16-0.06-0.04
St. Mary'sWCC0.220.1590.9187.740.180.12
Southern MethodistCUSA0.170.1538.1037.86-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.230.1561.9055.140.050.02
South AlabamaSB0.140.1452.3852.870.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1319.0522.37-0.12-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1356.5253.100.020.01
NebraskaB100.180.1352.3846.680.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.120.1345.8346.68-0.01-0.01
North TexasSB0.120.1350.0050.010.000.00
MississippiSEC0.120.1263.6456.710.030.02
St. LouisA100.180.1277.2777.670.100.07
Washington St.P120.120.1250.0048.170.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.120.1269.5765.470.050.04
CaliforniaP120.110.1275.0074.610.060.06
FloridaSEC0.120.1282.6177.630.080.07
WisconsinB100.170.1275.0073.970.080.06
ColoradoP120.170.1266.6762.650.060.03
DePaulBE0.110.1250.0042.830.00-0.02
KansasB120.170.1278.2678.390.090.07
Kansas St.B120.110.1272.7368.280.050.04
MissouriB120.110.1291.3087.180.090.09
OklahomaB120.110.1259.0954.700.020.01
TexasB120.170.1260.8761.370.040.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1038.1042.78-0.03-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.130.1076.1975.940.070.05
West VirginiaBE0.130.1065.2265.170.040.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.1055.0054.480.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1027.7829.58-0.06-0.04
Texas ChristianMWC0.120.1057.1449.540.02-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0981.8281.490.030.06
JacksonvilleASun0.170.0917.3922.00-0.11-0.05
Utah St.WAC0.170.0950.0052.930.000.01
Fresno St.WAC0.110.0939.1344.52-0.02-0.01
PortlandWCC0.110.0921.7421.70-0.06-0.05
LipscombASun0.110.0943.4843.82-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.0930.0031.54-0.05-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.120.0956.5250.270.020.00
RiceCUSA0.120.0947.6246.46-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.110.0969.5766.540.040.03
Western CarolinaSC0.170.0934.7837.24-0.05-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.110.0940.9139.56-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.110.0918.1815.01-0.07-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.070.0768.1869.100.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0739.1342.12-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.070.0740.9139.82-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.070.0771.4369.050.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0733.3337.25-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0752.3857.860.000.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.070.0785.7182.180.050.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0718.1821.13-0.05-0.04
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.070.0757.1460.750.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.150.0722.2227.62-0.08-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0726.3229.79-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.0750.0051.730.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.060.0736.3638.48-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0733.3338.38-0.02-0.02
Seattleind0.000.0723.5333.28-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.060.0731.8232.75-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.0747.8343.66-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.120.0627.2735.02-0.05-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.120.0634.7835.20-0.04-0.02
BelmontASun0.060.0669.5773.280.020.03
ClemsonACC0.060.0650.0048.360.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0647.8349.03-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0652.3852.860.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0645.4544.02-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.060.0657.1453.120.010.00
HoustonCUSA0.060.0647.6244.63-0.00-0.01
IdahoWAC0.120.0647.6251.08-0.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.068.7011.67-0.09-0.05
Louisiana St.SEC0.060.0659.0957.280.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0642.8643.45-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0659.0959.720.010.01
MercerASun0.110.0670.8371.640.050.03
OaklandSum0.060.0648.0050.21-0.000.00
San Jose St.WAC0.060.0627.2726.95-0.03-0.03
South Carolina UpstateASun0.060.0654.5556.090.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0631.8231.31-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0654.5557.690.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.0669.5765.870.050.02
VirginiaACC0.120.0681.8276.800.070.03
BradleyMVC0.120.0624.0024.86-0.06-0.03
Arizona St.P120.110.0630.4331.43-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0635.0039.29-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.110.0658.3359.980.020.01
DavidsonSC0.060.0676.1976.760.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0640.0041.30-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0659.0957.760.020.01
MemphisCUSA0.060.0669.5771.510.020.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0686.9685.460.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.050.0631.8233.83-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0656.5253.770.010.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0628.5726.30-0.02-0.03
The CitadelSC0.110.069.5211.44-0.09-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.060.0660.8759.050.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0641.6740.61-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.110.0655.0057.410.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0650.0056.760.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.110.0666.6760.800.040.01
DenverSB0.110.0670.8372.230.050.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.0640.9138.38-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.110.0634.7835.50-0.03-0.02
Michigan St.B100.110.0676.1972.910.060.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0686.9683.160.040.04
Notre DameBE0.060.0665.2262.650.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6463.160.010.02
StanfordP120.050.0669.5768.290.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0656.5257.720.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0668.1867.910.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0656.5248.810.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0680.7780.750.030.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0327.7829.87-0.03-0.01
CharlotteA100.070.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0342.1149.81-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0335.2939.85-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.070.0344.4441.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0318.1822.22-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0375.0075.780.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0361.9067.230.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0320.0019.96-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0341.1842.61-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0325.0037.58-0.03-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0325.0023.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0370.8364.420.030.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0382.6184.570.050.02
ArmyPat0.060.0340.9141.72-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0327.2723.80-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0317.3919.81-0.04-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0314.2917.17-0.04-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.038.7012.13-0.05-0.03
NavyPat0.060.039.5213.19-0.05-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0368.1869.680.000.01
North DakotaGWC0.000.0333.3341.31-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0365.2263.740.020.01
Virginia Military InstBSth0.060.0345.0044.15-0.01-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.000.0347.8347.87-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0379.1780.100.000.02
Loyola MDMAAC0.060.0377.2773.450.030.01
MaineAE0.060.0350.0049.730.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.060.0359.0950.820.010.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0365.0060.020.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0354.1757.200.000.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.0073.280.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0382.6181.440.040.02
PacificBW0.060.0335.0037.47-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0338.1040.81-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0342.8639.66-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0368.4266.450.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0355.0060.330.000.01
ElonSC0.000.0350.0047.590.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0345.4541.20-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.000.0334.7833.46-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0355.5658.010.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0356.5255.200.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0380.0076.840.030.02
ArizonaP120.050.0366.6768.550.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0340.9144.03-0.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0378.2672.340.030.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0342.8645.80-0.01-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0385.7178.050.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0325.0025.13-0.03-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.790.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0328.5734.20-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0352.1750.090.000.00
IowaB100.050.0354.1749.440.00-0.00
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.910.030.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0362.5061.500.010.01