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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:283.3
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:175
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-9
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:1-9
Expected OOC RPI:289
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9137.50.04%
18-10163.00.06%
17-11175.50.53%
16-12194.11.54%
15-13212.84.16%
14-14233.48.02%
13-15253.813.39%
12-16273.117.57%
11-17291.918.93%
10-18308.415.18%
9-19321.710.74%
8-20332.46.03%
7-21340.42.68%
6-22345.20.88%
5-23348.10.22%
4-24349.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14TCU (133.6)B12A71-54L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (70.8)B12A74-52L0%0.0
11-19Rice (272.7)CUSAA68-64L0%0.0
11-21Baylor (23.6)B12A60-45L0%0.0
11-24Memphis (60.1)AmerA77-49L0%0.0
11-27Stephen F. Austin (116.4)SlndN0-016%-12.1
12-6Texas St. (199.5)SBA0-024%-8.3
12-14Texas Tech (165.3)B12A0-011%-14.7
12-20Sam Houston St. (158.4)SlndA0-014%-12.7
12-23North Texas (226.6)CUSAA0-026%-7.8
1-3Southern (280.1)SWACA0-039%-3.5
1-5Alcorn St. (316.6)SWACA0-050%-0.1
1-10Texas Southern (252.4)SWACH0-059%2.7
1-17Jackson St. (298.7)SWACH0-065%4.6
1-19Grambling St. (342.9)SWACH0-085%12.6
1-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (324.2)SWACA0-055%1.4
1-26Mississippi Valley St. (346.0)SWACA0-069%6.1
1-31Alabama A&M (297.0)SWACH0-064%4.4
2-2Alabama St. (216.1)SWACH0-044%-1.9
2-7Texas Southern (252.4)SWACA0-035%-4.5
2-14Jackson St. (298.7)SWACA0-042%-2.5
2-16Grambling St. (342.9)SWACA0-067%5.4
2-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (324.2)SWACH0-076%8.6
2-23Mississippi Valley St. (346.0)SWACH0-087%13.2
2-28Alabama A&M (297.0)SWACA0-041%-2.8
3-2Alabama St. (216.1)SWACA0-022%-9.1
3-5Southern (280.1)SWACH0-062%3.7
3-7Alcorn St. (316.6)SWACH0-072%7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC32.9226.460.0045.97-32.92-2.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.254.660.0016.56-1.25-3.11
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.630.0037.58-0.00-1.15
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.6320.0028.91-0.00-1.95
SouthernSWAC0.004.620.0038.73-0.00-1.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.610.0019.73-0.00-2.79
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.6025.0040.23-0.00-0.90
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.580.0031.34-0.00-1.71
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.580.0042.75-0.00-0.66
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.570.0064.22-0.001.30
BaylorB1210.002.15100.0069.0310.000.82
TCUB1210.002.10100.0056.1210.000.26
Texas TechB120.002.0666.6743.870.00-0.25
Oklahoma St.B1210.002.03100.0054.1410.000.17
North TexasCUSA0.002.0166.6737.400.00-0.51
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.251.980.0064.94-1.250.59
MemphisAmer10.001.880.0065.45-10.000.58
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.8550.0063.390.000.50
RiceCUSA10.001.850.0024.83-10.00-0.93
Texas St.SB0.001.8266.6747.300.00-0.10
TexasB120.000.38100.0079.170.000.22
Iowa St.B120.000.37100.0067.390.000.13
Kansas St.B120.000.3075.0057.780.000.05
LamarSlnd0.000.260.0034.13-0.00-0.08
KansasB120.000.2466.6758.820.000.04
OklahomaB120.000.2466.6758.810.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.24100.0070.420.000.10
TulaneAmer0.000.2450.0035.290.00-0.07
HoustonAmer0.000.21100.0063.820.000.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.20100.0070.270.000.08
UTSACUSA0.000.2050.0037.390.00-0.05
Oregon St.P122.920.1966.6745.890.97-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1950.0063.110.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1980.0072.030.000.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.170.0033.20-0.00-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.170.0024.93-0.00-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1650.0045.420.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1650.0045.710.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1333.3368.63-0.000.05
TroySB0.000.130.0044.74-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1375.0065.610.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1380.0074.980.000.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.130.0053.97-0.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd1.250.130.0045.64-1.25-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.130.0039.88-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1250.0054.250.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.1233.3342.50-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.1250.0055.630.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.1260.0050.930.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.1250.0069.360.000.05
IndianaB100.000.1280.0057.960.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.120.0069.16-0.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1275.0073.300.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.10100.0031.710.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0074.590.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1033.3333.50-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0030.13-0.00-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0021.40-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.10100.0051.650.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.100.0029.60-0.00-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.250.100.0029.61-1.25-0.04
New OrleansSlnd1.250.100.0034.80-1.25-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0975.0055.660.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0975.0074.330.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0086.000.000.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0940.0066.65-0.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3347.25-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6751.260.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0032.620.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.090.0039.25-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.07100.0063.550.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.070.0043.39-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0766.6772.280.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0026.270.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0766.6750.930.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.070.0040.87-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0733.3346.31-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0058.710.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0775.0072.970.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6774.460.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0750.0050.520.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0733.3363.19-0.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0051.910.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0062.790.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0035.180.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0780.0072.950.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0775.0062.270.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0039.32-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3343.01-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0775.0056.390.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0766.6733.810.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.07100.0056.070.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0750.0043.570.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0036.18-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6751.200.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0733.3343.21-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0775.0068.180.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0760.0064.030.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0025.79-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0069.180.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6762.260.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0625.0057.73-0.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0066.880.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0660.0056.290.000.01
South CarolinaSEC1.250.0640.0050.01-0.250.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0058.760.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.270.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.060.0031.81-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0058.430.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0047.530.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3322.95-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.400.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.06100.0043.380.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0041.460.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0675.0069.590.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0035.87-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.170.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0025.30-0.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6768.660.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.840.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0675.0066.800.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.060.0023.63-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0060.870.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.76-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6753.410.000.00
StanfordP120.000.0675.0069.760.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0041.580.00-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.490.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0333.3352.75-0.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0325.0044.61-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA1.670.0366.6746.440.56-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0340.0043.71-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0033.57-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0325.0052.91-0.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0071.240.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.85-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0051.180.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0076.960.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0080.240.000.02
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.130.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.26-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.930.000.02
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz1.250.0325.0035.54-0.62-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0043.080.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0333.3348.25-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0350.0052.920.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6753.640.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0050.840.000.00
Wichita St.MVC2.500.03100.0084.112.500.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0031.48-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3323.97-0.00-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0350.0032.050.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0052.390.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3350.07-0.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0034.67-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0027.43-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P121.250.0333.3328.67-0.42-0.01