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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:285.7
Current RPI:292
Expected SOS:336
Current SOS:60
Current Record:0-9
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-9
Current OOC Record:0-9
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:307
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11169.30.03%
17-12183.10.28%
16-13201.41.06%
15-14220.03.66%
14-15241.38.76%
13-16262.015.47%
12-17280.819.83%
11-18297.119.66%
10-19310.516.35%
9-20320.78.83%
8-21328.83.95%
7-22335.81.63%
6-23341.30.36%
5-24346.30.11%
4-25347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14TCU (72.5)B12A71-54L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma St. (30.0)B12A74-52L0%0.0
11-19Rice (284.0)CUSAA68-64L0%0.0
11-21Baylor (10.6)B12A60-45L0%0.0
11-24Memphis (85.7)AmerA77-49L0%0.0
11-27Stephen F. Austin (75.0)SlndN61-73L0%0.0
11-28Brown (246.3)IvyN71-81L0%0.0
12-6Texas St. (177.0)SBA81-65L0%0.0
12-14Texas Tech (87.7)B12A79-51L0%0.0
12-20Sam Houston St. (104.2)SlndA0-05%-19.0
12-23North Texas (242.0)CUSAA0-028%-7.0
1-3Southern (308.3)SWACA0-044%-1.8
1-5Alcorn St. (331.2)SWACA0-056%1.9
1-10Texas Southern (226.8)SWACH0-057%2.0
1-17Jackson St. (284.8)SWACH0-063%4.0
1-19Grambling St. (349.5)SWACH0-097%22.1
1-24Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACA0-046%-1.2
1-26Mississippi Valley St. (347.1)SWACA0-075%7.9
1-31Alabama A&M (330.9)SWACH0-079%9.6
2-2Alabama St. (228.8)SWACH0-048%-0.5
2-7Texas Southern (226.8)SWACA0-028%-6.8
2-14Jackson St. (284.8)SWACA0-034%-4.8
2-16Grambling St. (349.5)SWACA0-087%13.3
2-21Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACH0-074%7.6
2-23Mississippi Valley St. (347.1)SWACH0-092%16.6
2-28Alabama A&M (330.9)SWACA0-053%0.9
3-2Alabama St. (228.8)SWACA0-022%-9.2
3-5Southern (308.3)SWACH0-072%7.0
3-7Alcorn St. (331.2)SWACH0-082%10.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC27.9926.430.0044.68-27.99-2.81
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.284.4910.0018.12-0.22-2.86
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.4620.0038.11-0.00-1.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.284.4611.1143.73-0.22-0.56
SouthernSWAC0.004.450.0033.25-0.00-1.49
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.440.008.97-0.00-3.64
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.4318.1844.16-0.00-0.52
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.420.0028.03-0.00-1.94
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.410.0031.56-0.00-1.63
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.4133.3362.74-0.001.12
BaylorB126.172.0788.8972.974.800.95
TCUB125.562.02100.0065.065.560.61
Texas TechB125.561.9887.5054.394.170.17
Oklahoma St.B125.861.9587.5062.364.400.48
North TexasCUSA0.621.9342.8635.48-0.09-0.56
Stephen F. AustinSlnd6.601.9162.5076.871.651.03
MemphisAmer6.451.8150.0058.660.000.31
RiceCUSA5.561.790.0023.44-5.56-0.95
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.7950.0073.200.000.83
Texas St.SB5.861.7540.0048.34-1.17-0.06
BrownIvy5.561.7233.3331.42-1.85-0.64
TexasB120.460.3690.0081.860.370.23
Iowa St.B120.000.3588.8963.800.000.10
Kansas St.B120.000.2960.0037.220.00-0.07
LamarSlnd0.460.2514.2934.12-0.33-0.08
KansasB120.000.2388.8969.390.000.09
OklahomaB120.000.2377.7867.290.000.08
West VirginiaB120.000.2390.0066.940.000.08
TulaneAmer0.000.2387.5054.790.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.2071.4348.860.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.1966.6772.670.000.09
UTSACUSA0.460.1942.8637.65-0.07-0.05
Oregon St.P120.770.1877.7855.460.430.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1825.0028.68-0.00-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1872.7367.750.000.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1655.5638.600.00-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.460.1620.0039.70-0.28-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.1544.4445.64-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.310.1557.1461.670.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.1444.4470.08-0.030.06
Murray St.OVC0.000.1355.5661.790.000.03
TroySB0.000.1333.3339.46-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1360.0064.610.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1388.8981.310.000.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.310.120.0037.73-0.31-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1242.8652.71-0.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.1242.8638.11-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.560.1225.0049.09-0.28-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1242.8627.08-0.00-0.05
UABCUSA0.000.1230.0037.28-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1266.6754.830.000.01
IndianaB100.000.1180.0057.630.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1172.7373.150.000.05
SMUAmer0.000.1170.0071.330.000.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1037.5041.20-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.1077.7871.960.000.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1037.5031.95-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0916.6719.68-0.00-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0017.51-0.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0975.0074.340.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.090.0018.94-0.00-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.0911.1144.04-0.24-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.280.090.0038.46-0.28-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0966.6777.030.000.05
MississippiSEC0.280.0970.0052.610.110.00
NorthwesternB100.280.0960.0040.620.06-0.02
TulsaAmer0.310.0960.0056.800.060.01
AuburnSEC0.310.0844.4436.35-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0871.4359.920.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.0836.3664.92-0.080.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0850.0056.340.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0890.0090.940.000.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.0850.0039.340.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0844.4444.78-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0777.7871.110.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.0725.0032.77-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.0777.7879.480.000.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0737.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0742.8638.26-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0733.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0728.5736.95-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0775.0067.580.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0777.7870.120.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6766.340.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0766.6762.620.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0762.5071.290.000.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0777.7851.350.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3345.28-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0755.5647.870.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0790.9171.890.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0772.7363.730.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.070.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0744.4447.53-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0755.5654.950.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0755.5638.130.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.07100.0071.820.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.0066.690.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0640.0050.32-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.0672.7362.590.000.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0636.3633.67-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.710.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0655.5649.500.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.310.0680.0064.110.190.02
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0677.7865.390.150.02
Austin PeayOVC0.590.0622.2230.99-0.33-0.02
Washington St.P120.740.0640.0028.86-0.15-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5064.770.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.53-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3338.99-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.730.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.78-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0637.5033.00-0.00-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.85-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0677.7873.370.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0672.7367.180.000.02
IllinoisB100.560.0672.7365.930.250.02
South CarolinaSEC0.590.0662.5064.260.150.02
Indiana St.MVC0.590.0633.3332.85-0.20-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
BradleyMVC0.590.0633.3332.09-0.20-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0610.0030.45-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.350.000.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.190.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.510.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0019.99-0.00-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0660.0064.930.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.410.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.540.000.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0610.0018.58-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0023.15-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0032.620.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0675.0065.410.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0675.0057.570.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.150.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5634.940.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.620.000.02
SeattleWAC0.460.0337.5046.50-0.12-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.74-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.460.0337.5042.45-0.12-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0327.2738.97-0.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.460.0357.1456.750.070.00
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7876.240.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0320.0028.20-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0372.7351.560.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0340.0046.73-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.310.0340.0050.07-0.060.00
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0390.0078.050.250.02
XavierBE0.310.0380.0070.960.190.01
AmericanPat0.280.0360.0065.400.060.01
BryantNEC0.280.0328.5747.24-0.12-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2230.85-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.280.0357.1453.130.040.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0333.3334.28-0.10-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0344.4431.58-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.620.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.280.0372.7353.260.130.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.360.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.0336.3647.13-0.08-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0330.0029.80-0.12-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.310.0333.3327.70-0.10-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0337.5040.20-0.08-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.0320.0029.81-0.19-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.280.0375.0060.400.140.01
FurmanSC0.280.0325.0029.59-0.14-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0344.4445.59-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.280.0350.0055.810.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6455.600.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0016.85-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.310.0360.0064.620.060.01
Wichita St.MVC0.310.0387.5085.320.230.02