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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Prairie View A&M

Conference:SWAC
Expected RPI:313.8
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:328
Current SOS:107
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-12
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:1-11
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:91



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14210.90.07%
15-15227.40.38%
14-16249.01.28%
13-17266.73.59%
12-18283.48.55%
11-19298.013.63%
10-20310.918.98%
9-21321.320.06%
8-22329.216.30%
7-23335.910.02%
6-24340.64.94%
5-25344.11.76%
4-26346.40.36%
3-27347.70.06%
2-28348.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Prairie View A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Oregon St. (268.9)P12A78-58L0%0.0
11-14Fresno St. (197.2)MWCA78-84W100%0.0
11-16Saint Mary's (15.8)WCCA110-72L0%0.0
11-19UTSA (307.7)CUSAA69-59L0%0.0
11-25Lamar (300.5)SlndH83-91L0%0.0
11-27Wisconsin (22.2)B10A95-50L0%0.0
12-3Houston (37.7)AmerA105-61L0%0.0
12-6Kansas St. (77.0)B12A0-01%-30.0
12-10Texas St. (265.1)SBA0-014%-12.8
12-13Louisiana Tech (102.7)CUSAA0-02%-23.8
12-17Utah (87.8)P12A0-01%-27.2
12-22George Mason (189.3)A10A0-08%-16.6
1-2Southern (234.3)SWACA0-015%-12.5
1-4Alcorn St. (314.4)SWACA0-036%-4.2
1-7Texas Southern (104.8)SWACH0-013%-13.2
1-14Jackson St. (301.7)SWACH0-045%-1.4
1-16Grambling St. (339.2)SWACH0-068%5.8
1-21Mississippi Valley St. (316.3)SWACA0-043%-2.0
1-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.5)SWACA0-047%-0.8
1-28Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH0-083%11.4
1-30Alabama St. (327.8)SWACH0-058%2.3
2-4Texas Southern (104.8)SWACA0-05%-19.5
2-11Jackson St. (301.7)SWACA0-026%-7.7
2-13Grambling St. (339.2)SWACA0-048%-0.5
2-18Mississippi Valley St. (316.3)SWACH0-064%4.3
2-20Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.5)SWACH0-068%5.5
2-25Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-066%5.1
2-27Alabama St. (327.8)SWACA0-037%-4.0
3-2Southern (234.3)SWACH0-030%-6.2
3-4Alcorn St. (314.4)SWACH0-057%2.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Prairie View A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Prairie View A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Prairie View A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Prairie View A&MSWAC28.5926.3924.1435.94-14.79-7.42
Alabama St.SWAC0.004.2912.5032.25-0.00-1.52
Grambling St.SWAC0.004.2825.0030.62-0.00-1.66
Alcorn St.SWAC0.004.280.0032.67-0.00-1.48
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.004.270.0023.78-0.00-2.24
Texas SouthernSWAC0.004.2750.0064.620.001.25
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.004.260.0022.35-0.00-2.36
Alabama A&MSWAC0.004.260.0012.57-0.00-3.19
Jackson St.SWAC0.004.2614.2941.98-0.00-0.68
SouthernSWAC0.004.2640.0057.39-0.000.63
Louisiana TechCUSA0.001.9150.0070.060.000.76
UTSACUSA8.781.8414.2927.02-6.27-0.85
Oregon St.P128.781.8214.2920.28-6.27-1.08
Fresno St.MWC8.631.7580.0041.515.18-0.30
LamarSlnd8.631.7540.0039.29-1.73-0.38
UtahP120.001.7275.0058.230.000.28
Texas St.SB0.451.7050.0041.820.00-0.28
George MasonA100.511.6962.5045.350.13-0.16
HoustonAmer7.141.6983.3377.534.760.93
Kansas St.B120.001.6787.5057.970.000.27
Saint Mary'sWCC7.141.67100.0088.947.141.30
WisconsinB107.141.6775.0075.243.570.84
UABCUSA0.600.2650.0059.920.000.05
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2325.0020.78-0.00-0.14
BaylorB120.000.23100.0076.590.000.12
CaliforniaP120.000.2185.7162.220.000.05
San FranciscoWCC0.600.1885.7153.560.430.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1842.8650.12-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1725.0027.53-0.00-0.08
TroySB0.000.1742.8636.19-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1742.8658.58-0.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.1757.1454.360.000.01
TCUB120.000.16100.0061.680.000.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1571.4360.540.000.03
OregonP120.000.1575.0072.250.000.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1575.0061.490.000.03
StanfordP120.600.1566.6758.060.200.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1522.2221.23-0.00-0.09
TulaneAmer0.000.1412.5023.93-0.00-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1437.5035.09-0.00-0.04
DrakeMVC0.600.140.0019.67-0.60-0.09
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1471.4363.930.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1462.5067.390.000.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1475.0071.470.000.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.1257.1436.010.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1250.0058.040.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.1275.0062.620.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1216.6729.81-0.00-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.1242.8628.98-0.00-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.1271.4354.860.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1260.0069.120.000.04
NevadaMWC1.040.1277.7871.970.580.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1216.6730.34-0.00-0.05
NebraskaB100.000.1257.1444.890.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1277.7849.900.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.1275.0055.500.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.1262.5058.450.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1120.0035.47-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.1175.0068.370.000.04
Ohio St.B100.000.1187.5068.610.000.04
TulsaAmer0.450.1150.0038.050.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.1133.3348.07-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.11100.0091.920.000.09
George WashingtonA100.000.1155.5641.690.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1187.5082.360.000.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1171.4354.310.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1116.6739.49-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1187.5074.490.000.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.070.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.1185.7183.660.000.07
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.370.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.090.0017.61-0.00-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.450.0966.6757.300.150.01
San Jose St.MWC0.600.0950.0041.490.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.09100.0086.690.000.06
USCP120.000.09100.0076.680.000.05
DuquesneA100.000.0944.4442.03-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0018.64-0.00-0.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.0950.0060.620.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0942.8646.14-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0022.58-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0933.3330.44-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0950.0050.450.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.330.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.450.0971.4351.460.190.00
PortlandWCC0.000.0950.0054.070.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0887.5062.040.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.0812.5030.68-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0866.6755.540.000.01
LSUSEC0.510.0871.4349.170.22-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0855.5658.610.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0875.0066.170.000.03
OklahomaB120.400.0871.4348.350.17-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0642.8644.71-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0642.8630.92-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0675.0056.590.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.12-0.00-0.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6754.050.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.450.0642.8641.51-0.06-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.400.0612.5030.39-0.30-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.600.0612.5029.15-0.45-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0650.0046.410.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0687.5076.230.000.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0660.0058.590.000.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0671.4368.050.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0642.8633.23-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0637.5031.23-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
DaytonA100.600.0671.4373.490.260.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0671.4358.600.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5069.130.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.670.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0566.6746.420.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0512.5037.99-0.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0571.4370.210.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0542.8651.95-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0587.5075.860.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0587.5075.590.000.03
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.330.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0575.0066.460.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0587.5068.020.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0585.7145.370.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0557.1449.130.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.400.0540.0041.12-0.08-0.01
TexasB120.000.0557.1438.680.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0522.2238.49-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.13-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.380.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0032.52-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.93-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.33-0.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.600.0342.8660.54-0.090.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0342.8650.06-0.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.450.0342.8645.44-0.06-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0385.7166.190.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0342.8627.96-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.510.0328.5729.95-0.22-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0375.0048.030.22-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.510.0314.2938.26-0.36-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.84-0.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.57-0.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.510.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.19-0.000.00
VermontAE0.510.0362.5071.320.130.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.400.0320.0022.75-0.24-0.01
CreightonBE0.400.03100.0076.630.400.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.400.0355.5647.890.04-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.400.0387.5081.960.300.02
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.400.0371.4366.700.170.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.68-0.00-0.02