Missouri Kansas City

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	240.4
Current RPI:	238
Expected SOS:	173
Current SOS:	201
Current Record:	8-15
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	3-10
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.18%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	6-5
Expected OOC RPI:	134
Expected OOC SOS:	203

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-15	170.9	0.14%
13-16	192.7	1.79%
12-17	211.0	9.82%
11-18	227.8	26.53%
10-19	244.4	35.16%
9-20	260.0	21.40%
8-21	272.2	5.15%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri Kansas City.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	A	68-58	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	A	58-54	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Wisconsin (21.8)	B10	A	77-31	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Wofford (173.4)	SC	N	64-58	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Longwood (311.5)	ind	N	53-93	W	100%	0.0
12-1	IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)	Sum	A	66-81	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Oakland (135.3)	Sum	A	86-73	L	0%	0.0
12-7	North Dakota (266.8)	GWC	H	78-75	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Southeast Missouri St. (242.4)	OVC	A	69-74	W	100%	0.0
12-16	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	72-67	W	100%	0.0
12-19	Michigan St. (8.2)	B10	A	89-54	L	0%	0.0
12-22	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	A	87-62	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	H	65-72	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	H	77-91	L	0%	0.0
1-3	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	A	83-74	L	0%	0.0
1-7	South Dakota (280.2)	Sum	H	57-76	L	0%	0.0
1-12	North Dakota St. (125.0)	Sum	A	55-54	L	0%	0.0
1-14	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	A	85-58	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Western Illinois (177.9)	Sum	H	72-50	W	100%	0.0
1-21	IUPUI (245.2)	Sum	H	64-62	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	A	57-47	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Oral Roberts (43.6)	Sum	A	77-67	L	0%	0.0
2-4	South Dakota (280.2)	Sum	A	79-63	L	0%	0.0
2-9	North Dakota St. (125.0)	Sum	H	0-0		27%	-6.7
2-11	South Dakota St. (55.2)	Sum	H	0-0		16%	-10.7
2-15	Western Illinois (177.9)	Sum	A	0-0		21%	-8.9
2-18	Wright St. (216.3)	Horz	H	0-0		53%	0.9
2-23	Oakland (135.3)	Sum	H	0-0		39%	-3.0
2-25	IUPU Fort Wayne (255.0)	Sum	H	0-0		64%	4.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri Kansas City's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Missouri Kansas City's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Missouri Kansas City.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	26.54	26.46	38.71	35.09	-5.99	-7.89
South Dakota St.	Sum	3.17	4.53	72.73	74.28	1.44	2.20
Western Illinois	Sum	3.19	4.51	55.56	49.17	0.35	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	5.21	4.50	17.65	22.65	-3.37	-2.46
Oakland	Sum	3.16	4.49	45.83	48.05	-0.26	-0.18
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.11	4.48	60.00	61.68	0.62	1.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	5.17	4.46	79.17	79.42	3.01	2.63
IUPUI	Sum	5.05	4.46	33.33	34.42	-1.68	-1.39
Southern Utah	Sum	5.16	4.45	40.00	39.85	-1.03	-0.90
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	3.11	4.44	36.84	36.76	-0.82	-1.18
North Dakota	GWC	2.58	2.20	35.29	43.03	-0.76	-0.31
Canisius	MAAC	2.46	1.89	18.18	20.51	-1.56	-1.12
Utah Valley	GWC	2.28	1.85	52.38	56.06	0.11	0.22
Bradley	MVC	2.38	1.85	20.83	22.35	-1.39	-1.02
Wisconsin	B10	2.32	1.84	73.91	73.11	1.11	0.85
Longwood	ind	2.22	1.79	31.58	28.92	-0.82	-0.75
Michigan St.	B10	2.22	1.78	75.00	71.98	1.11	0.78
Wofford	SC	2.26	1.78	61.90	59.99	0.54	0.36
New Mexico	MWC	2.23	1.76	80.95	80.35	1.38	1.07
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.22	1.75	50.00	48.99	0.00	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	1.72	41.67	40.40	-0.00	-0.33
Nebraska	B10	0.30	0.24	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.19	0.24	65.22	63.61	0.06	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.24	0.24	72.73	66.81	0.11	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.15	0.24	69.57	61.31	0.06	0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.31	0.22	76.19	70.73	0.16	0.09
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.20	4.76	9.95	-0.10	-0.16
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.16	0.20	33.33	38.38	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.18	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.19	0.17	56.52	57.72	0.02	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.16	0.16	25.00	28.52	-0.08	-0.07
Purdue	B10	0.15	0.15	65.22	60.58	0.05	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.15	0.15	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.15	35.00	39.38	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.23	0.14	43.48	44.25	-0.03	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.14	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.10
Missouri St.	MVC	0.18	0.14	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.13	33.33	34.47	-0.05	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.13	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.13	4.35	9.66	-0.10	-0.11
Seattle	ind	0.10	0.13	23.53	33.28	-0.05	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.20	0.13	28.57	30.17	-0.08	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.20	0.13	0.00	5.37	-0.20	-0.11
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.13	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.12	85.71	78.05	0.11	0.07
Xavier	A10	0.14	0.12	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.05	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.19	0.12	55.00	57.41	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.12	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.14	0.12	82.61	81.44	0.09	0.07
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.12	81.82	81.49	0.09	0.07
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.12	19.05	21.29	-0.03	-0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.04	0.11	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.17	0.10	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.10	33.33	33.88	-0.06	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.10	14.29	17.17	-0.08	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.15	0.10	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.09	27.27	35.02	-0.07	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.09	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.57	65.15	0.04	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.09	0.09	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.09	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.09	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.09	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.14	0.09	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.08	72.73	64.43	0.04	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.08	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.07	40.91	44.03	-0.02	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.07	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.11	0.07	70.00	73.28	0.04	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.07	30.00	33.20	-0.04	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.08	-0.05
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.06	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.05	0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.02	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.06	80.00	76.84	0.06	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.06	75.00	76.00	0.05	0.03
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.02	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.06	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.38	0.06	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.06	0.04
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.09	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.05	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.00	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.08	-0.05
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.48	-0.03	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.06	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.04	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.01	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.00	0.06	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.00	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.00	0.06	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.04	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.91	0.00	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.05	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.04	0.06	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.04	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.04	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.02	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.06	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.06	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	41.18	42.61	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.19	-0.04	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	68.18	69.68	0.00	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.03	5.26	7.30	-0.04	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.02	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.76	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.00	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Elon	SC	0.00	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.03	17.39	22.00	-0.03	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.00	0.03	13.64	16.35	-0.00	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.00	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.00	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	45.70	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.00	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.00	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.00	0.03	19.05	25.52	-0.00	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.00	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.03	30.43	29.50	-0.02	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.04	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00