live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:293.5
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:130
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-6
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14160.00.01%
14-15187.80.16%
13-16206.70.58%
12-17226.61.92%
11-18247.65.39%
10-19266.111.49%
9-20283.117.51%
8-21297.321.98%
7-22308.420.19%
6-23317.513.39%
5-24324.85.80%
4-25330.61.42%
3-26336.50.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Tech (89.8)B12A71-59L0%0.0
11-16Cornell (180.9)IvyH76-71W100%0.0
11-19UMBC (335.5)AEH45-38W100%0.0
11-22Butler (25.7)BEA80-39L0%0.0
11-25Syracuse (72.7)ACCA70-37L0%0.0
11-29Siena (202.5)MAACH71-81L0%0.0
12-2Columbia (99.0)IvyA62-64W100%0.0
12-6Mount St. Mary's (261.8)NECH65-74L0%0.0
12-9Saint Joseph's (193.4)A10A68-42L0%0.0
12-21Stony Brook (145.9)AEA0-09%-15.9
12-28Fairfield (249.2)MAACN0-035%-4.6
12-31Navy (321.6)PatA0-040%-3.0
1-3Army (141.8)PatH0-025%-7.8
1-7American (96.8)PatH0-021%-9.4
1-10Lehigh (158.6)PatA0-011%-14.8
1-14Lafayette (91.6)PatA0-06%-18.7
1-18Boston University (206.3)PatH0-040%-3.0
1-21Bucknell (256.5)PatH0-052%0.5
1-24Colgate (185.2)PatA0-010%-15.2
1-28Holy Cross (158.8)PatH0-033%-5.1
1-31Army (141.8)PatA0-08%-16.6
2-4American (96.8)PatA0-06%-18.1
2-7Lehigh (158.6)PatH0-031%-6.0
2-11Lafayette (91.6)PatH0-020%-9.9
2-14Boston University (206.3)PatA0-016%-11.7
2-18Bucknell (256.5)PatA0-024%-8.2
2-22Colgate (185.2)PatH0-029%-6.4
2-25Holy Cross (158.8)PatA0-012%-13.8
2-28Navy (321.6)PatH0-069%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat27.8326.4133.3326.40-9.28-12.47
BucknellPat0.694.5440.0034.30-0.14-1.42
AmericanPat0.354.5160.0063.540.071.22
ColgatePat0.314.5120.0040.12-0.19-0.89
LehighPat0.354.4742.8650.23-0.050.02
Holy CrossPat0.314.4357.1450.660.040.06
NavyPat0.004.4120.0019.62-0.00-2.68
ArmyPat0.004.4177.7867.690.001.56
Boston UniversityPat0.004.4133.3339.24-0.00-0.95
LafayettePat0.004.4175.0068.020.001.59
ColumbiaIvy5.562.0871.4367.692.380.73
Stony BrookAE0.351.9037.5053.76-0.090.14
CornellIvy5.561.9062.5050.321.390.01
SyracuseACC5.561.8862.5056.191.390.23
SienaMAAC5.561.8728.5749.73-2.38-0.01
UMBCAE5.561.8511.1121.80-4.32-1.04
FairfieldMAAC0.001.8444.4439.12-0.00-0.40
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.561.8428.5735.82-2.38-0.52
ButlerBE5.561.7277.7871.553.090.74
Saint Joseph'sA105.561.7250.0038.140.00-0.41
Texas TechB125.561.7287.5054.214.170.15
BinghamtonAE0.310.420.0012.01-0.31-0.32
AlbanyAE0.350.3633.3348.85-0.12-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.310.3050.0061.650.000.07
PennIvy0.000.2737.5032.89-0.00-0.09
MaristMAAC0.000.2610.0018.78-0.00-0.17
HarvardIvy0.000.2585.7172.940.000.11
BrownIvy0.000.2440.0033.85-0.00-0.08
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2450.0058.660.000.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.2437.5045.89-0.09-0.02
New HampshireAE0.000.2457.1464.510.000.07
St. Francis PANEC0.000.2450.0062.870.000.06
VillanovaBE0.310.23100.0082.310.310.15
PrincetonIvy0.000.2127.2737.77-0.00-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.310.2155.5654.600.030.02
MaineAE0.280.2111.1121.17-0.22-0.12
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2136.3647.27-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.1870.0064.820.000.05
HartfordAE0.000.1850.0050.820.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.660.1828.5741.30-0.28-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.310.1825.0040.49-0.15-0.03
RiderMAAC0.350.1845.4552.00-0.030.01
VermontAE0.660.1850.0059.880.000.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.620.1841.6744.37-0.10-0.02
La SalleA100.000.1750.0049.770.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.1636.3640.81-0.00-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.1522.2240.77-0.00-0.03
WagnerNEC0.350.1514.2933.80-0.25-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.000.1566.6757.570.000.02
DukeACC0.000.15100.0087.440.000.11
ProvidenceBE0.000.1472.7352.880.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.1244.4447.44-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.1228.5747.24-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1230.0039.75-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.1233.3338.88-0.00-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1266.6752.270.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1260.0054.270.000.01
KansasB120.000.1288.8969.540.000.05
West VirginiaB120.000.1290.0066.760.000.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.280.1222.2231.12-0.15-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6738.970.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.350.1290.9171.750.280.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1266.6772.380.000.05
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1222.2237.72-0.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1244.4456.70-0.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1214.2931.11-0.00-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.350.1250.0038.030.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.350.09100.0094.670.350.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.350.0950.0056.370.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.310.0957.1461.280.040.02
DaytonA100.000.0977.7869.890.000.04
TowsonCAA0.280.0966.6751.310.090.00
FordhamA100.350.0928.5728.28-0.15-0.04
MassachusettsA100.350.0960.0055.530.070.01
Penn St.B100.310.0990.9154.060.250.01
St. BonaventureA100.350.0975.0064.990.170.03
TempleAmer0.310.0960.0053.790.060.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.590.0936.3633.75-0.16-0.03
Seton HallBE0.350.0988.8963.530.270.02
HamptonMEAC0.310.0940.0050.16-0.060.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.310.0970.0066.610.120.03
MichiganB100.310.0955.5642.690.03-0.01
OklahomaB120.280.0977.7867.330.150.03
GeorgetownBE0.280.0866.6759.320.090.02
St. John'sBE0.310.0887.5064.520.230.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7878.200.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.74-0.00-0.05
USCP120.000.0660.0037.230.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.280.0630.0044.01-0.11-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0672.7373.120.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0650.0055.940.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.49-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.620.0625.0037.61-0.31-0.01
George MasonA100.310.0625.0025.95-0.15-0.03
George WashingtonA100.280.0666.6766.690.090.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0655.5648.830.03-0.00
IowaB100.590.0672.7362.590.270.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.960.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.80-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.950.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0688.8964.130.000.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0670.0060.810.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0037.340.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.19-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.620.000.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.230.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.71-0.00-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5073.580.000.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.280.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.760.000.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.520.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.430.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6741.940.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.0672.7351.600.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.640.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0670.0071.470.110.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.100.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0680.0071.020.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0357.1456.210.000.00
AkronMAC0.280.0360.0056.780.060.00
ArizonaP120.350.03100.0080.830.350.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.420.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.460.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.280.0320.0026.68-0.17-0.01
MinnesotaB100.280.0377.7864.890.150.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.310.0362.5064.360.080.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0072.030.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0320.0038.33-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.310.0344.4435.62-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.040.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0350.0053.980.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.25-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.310.0330.0029.48-0.12-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.310.0390.0091.070.250.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4359.600.000.01
LSUSEC0.310.0377.7862.380.170.01
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0337.5040.12-0.08-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.42-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.310.030.0037.61-0.31-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.310.030.0039.62-0.31-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0057.040.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0034.010.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0074.090.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.310.0320.0029.28-0.19-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0320.0039.57-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0370.0071.520.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7876.160.000.02
CaliforniaP120.310.0390.0066.470.250.01
ChattanoogaSC0.280.0344.4451.18-0.030.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.400.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.090.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.470.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.280.0333.3332.85-0.09-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0049.99-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.210.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.760.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.060.000.01
NorthwesternB100.280.0360.0040.460.06-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.280.0350.0046.160.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0362.5066.710.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.770.000.02