Loyola MD

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	99.0
Current RPI:	99
Expected SOS:	161
Current SOS:	161
Current Record:	21-11
Expected Record:	21-11
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	55
Expected OOC SOS:	119

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-11	99.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	71-45	W	100%
11-11	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	85-63	L	0%
11-14	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	86-70	W	100%
11-17	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	N	65-49	W	100%
11-18	Albany (130.0)	AE	N	64-67	W	100%
11-23	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	A	54-58	W	100%
11-26	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	65-53	W	100%
11-28	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	A	51-67	W	100%
12-1	Florida Gulf Coast (94.0)	ASun	A	65-50	L	0%
12-5	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	H	61-62	L	0%
12-8	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	55-61	W	100%
12-15	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	79-57	W	100%
12-28	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	H	46-66	L	0%
12-30	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	78-64	L	0%
1-4	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	H	71-65	W	100%
1-6	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	H	74-58	W	100%
1-11	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	H	63-58	W	100%
1-13	Rider (145.0)	MAAC	A	64-57	L	0%
1-17	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	H	72-58	W	100%
1-21	Fairfield (173.0)	MAAC	A	60-65	W	100%
1-25	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	A	41-51	W	100%
1-27	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	71-79	L	0%
1-31	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	91-79	L	0%
2-2	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	87-89	W	100%
2-8	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	H	63-51	W	100%
2-10	Marist (262.0)	MAAC	A	69-64	L	0%
2-14	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	H	68-64	W	100%
2-16	Siena (295.0)	MAAC	A	57-80	W	100%
2-23	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	67-69	W	100%
3-1	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	A	90-86	L	0%
3-3	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	63-61	W	100%
3-9	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	N	52-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola MD	MAAC	26.33	26.33	67.81	67.81	9.38	9.38
Manhattan	MAAC	5.57	5.57	44.83	44.83	-0.58	-0.58
Fairfield	MAAC	4.16	4.16	59.38	59.38	0.78	0.78
Iona	MAAC	4.16	4.16	58.06	58.06	0.67	0.67
Siena	MAAC	4.08	4.08	26.67	26.67	-1.90	-1.90
Niagara	MAAC	4.08	4.08	60.00	60.00	0.82	0.82
Canisius	MAAC	4.03	4.03	58.62	58.62	0.69	0.69
Marist	MAAC	4.03	4.03	31.03	31.03	-1.53	-1.53
St. Peter's	MAAC	4.03	4.03	32.14	32.14	-1.44	-1.44
Rider	MAAC	4.01	4.01	56.67	56.67	0.53	0.53
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.81	1.81	24.14	24.14	-0.94	-0.94
Albany	AE	1.79	1.79	72.73	72.73	0.81	0.81
Binghamton	AE	1.74	1.74	7.14	7.14	-1.49	-1.49
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.71	1.71	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	23.33	23.33	-0.89	-0.89
Bucknell	Pat	1.66	1.66	83.87	83.87	1.13	1.13
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.62	1.62	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Towson	CAA	1.61	1.61	58.62	58.62	0.28	0.28
Rhode Island	A10	1.59	1.59	28.57	28.57	-0.68	-0.68
Washington	P12	1.59	1.59	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.56	1.56	67.74	67.74	0.55	0.55
Memphis	CUSA	1.56	1.56	87.88	87.88	1.18	1.18
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.56	1.56	55.17	55.17	0.16	0.16
Stony Brook	AE	0.42	0.42	76.67	76.67	0.23	0.23
Vermont	AE	0.40	0.40	65.62	65.62	0.13	0.13
Hartford	AE	0.30	0.30	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Maine	AE	0.30	0.30	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
Boston University	AE	0.25	0.25	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.22	0.22	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.22	0.22	23.33	23.33	-0.12	-0.12
Long Island	NEC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Fordham	A10	0.19	0.19	22.58	22.58	-0.11	-0.11
Colgate	Pat	0.17	0.17	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Army	Pat	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.15	0.15	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.15	0.15	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.13	0.13	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.13	0.13	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
George Washington	A10	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.10	7.14	7.14	-0.09	-0.09
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.10	0.10	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Wagner	NEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Lehigh	Pat	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
College of Charleston	SC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00