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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:270.0
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:240
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:282



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19270.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Tech (183.0)B12A71-59L0%0.0
11-16Cornell (227.0)IvyH76-71W100%0.0
11-19UMBC (346.0)AEH45-38W100%0.0
11-22Butler (31.0)BEA80-39L0%0.0
11-25Syracuse (69.0)ACCA70-37L0%0.0
11-29Siena (261.0)MAACH71-81L0%0.0
12-2Columbia (196.0)IvyA62-64W100%0.0
12-6Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH65-74L0%0.0
12-9Saint Joseph's (187.0)A10A68-42L0%0.0
12-21Stony Brook (107.0)AEA67-52L0%0.0
12-28Fairfield (299.0)MAACN59-61W100%0.0
12-31Navy (252.0)PatA70-47L0%0.0
1-3Army (235.0)PatH53-77L0%0.0
1-7American (135.0)PatH56-53W100%0.0
1-10Lehigh (175.0)PatA60-65W100%0.0
1-14Lafayette (122.0)PatA69-65L0%0.0
1-18Boston University (198.0)PatH91-86W100%0.0
1-21Bucknell (136.0)PatH61-75L0%0.0
1-24Colgate (194.0)PatA59-58L0%0.0
1-29Holy Cross (200.0)PatH64-54W100%0.0
1-31Army (235.0)PatA71-77W100%0.0
2-4American (135.0)PatA64-49L0%0.0
2-7Lehigh (175.0)PatH63-69L0%0.0
2-11Lafayette (122.0)PatH62-43W100%0.0
2-14Boston University (198.0)PatA73-60L0%0.0
2-18Bucknell (136.0)PatA61-50L0%0.0
2-22Colgate (194.0)PatH80-78W100%0.0
2-25Holy Cross (200.0)PatA63-60L0%0.0
2-28Navy (252.0)PatH47-57L0%0.0
3-3Holy Cross (200.0)PatA62-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat26.4326.4336.7236.72-7.02-7.02
Holy CrossPat5.955.9542.3142.31-0.92-0.92
BucknellPat4.524.5253.3353.330.300.30
AmericanPat4.524.5251.6151.610.150.15
ColgatePat4.464.4646.6746.67-0.30-0.30
LafayettePat4.434.4362.0762.071.071.07
NavyPat4.384.3834.4834.48-1.36-1.36
LehighPat4.374.3751.8551.850.160.16
ArmyPat4.314.3148.1548.15-0.16-0.16
Boston UniversityPat4.314.3140.7440.74-0.80-0.80
ColumbiaIvy1.991.9946.1546.15-0.15-0.15
Stony BrookAE1.831.8364.5264.520.530.53
CornellIvy1.831.8342.8642.86-0.26-0.26
SyracuseACC1.831.8356.6756.670.240.24
SienaMAAC1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
UMBCAE1.781.7813.7913.79-1.29-1.29
FairfieldMAAC1.771.7723.3323.33-0.95-0.95
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.771.7748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
ButlerBE1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
Saint Joseph'sA101.671.6740.0040.00-0.33-0.33
Texas TechB121.671.6738.7138.71-0.38-0.38
BinghamtonAE0.410.4116.6716.67-0.27-0.27
AlbanyAE0.380.3875.0075.000.190.19
CanisiusMAAC0.310.3153.3353.330.020.02
HarvardIvy0.260.2674.0774.070.130.13
BrownIvy0.260.2637.9337.93-0.06-0.06
PennIvy0.250.2532.1432.14-0.09-0.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
MaristMAAC0.240.2421.8821.88-0.14-0.14
QuinnipiacMAAC0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2247.0647.06-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.220.2258.6258.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.220.2294.1294.120.190.19
VermontAE0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
HartfordAE0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.190.1910.0010.00-0.15-0.15
YaleIvy0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
NJITind0.170.1756.0056.000.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.170.1725.0025.00-0.08-0.08
LIU BrooklynNEC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
RiderMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
La SalleA100.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
WagnerNEC0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
PittsburghACC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
DukeACC0.140.1487.8887.880.100.10
NortheasternCAA0.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
IonaMAAC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
VMISC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.110.1116.1316.13-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
West VirginiaB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00