Loyola MD

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	83.9
Current RPI:	89
Expected SOS:	204
Current SOS:	244
Current Record:	17-5
Expected Record:	21-8
Current Conf Record:	10-2
Expected Conf Record:	14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	13.65%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	64
Expected OOC SOS:	209

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-5	52.4	2.40%
23-6	63.6	13.17%
22-7	75.4	28.83%
21-8	87.6	30.54%
20-9	99.0	18.65%
19-10	111.4	5.43%
18-11	124.5	0.92%
17-12	140.6	0.05%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Wake Forest (171.6)	ACC	A	75-63	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Coppin St. (214.5)	MEAC	H	78-68	W	100%	0.0
11-17	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	63-73	W	100%	0.0
11-20	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	60-66	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Florida Gulf Coast (206.9)	ASun	H	77-74	W	100%	0.0
12-1	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	H	76-63	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	A	59-66	W	100%	0.0
12-7	George Washington (196.4)	A10	A	55-65	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Mount St. Mary's (291.1)	NEC	A	54-65	W	100%	0.0
12-18	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	A	76-66	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Kentucky (4.3)	SEC	A	87-63	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	A	67-72	W	100%	0.0
1-2	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	H	61-66	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	61-60	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	H	77-62	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	A	63-66	W	100%	0.0
1-15	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	A	74-63	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	66-55	W	100%	0.0
1-22	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	65-54	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Niagara (208.7)	MAAC	A	57-69	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Canisius (322.0)	MAAC	A	52-70	W	100%	0.0
2-3	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	H	63-46	W	100%	0.0
2-5	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	A	0-0		78%	8.4
2-10	Iona (46.0)	MAAC	H	0-0		37%	-3.6
2-12	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	H	0-0		64%	3.9
2-15	Marist (276.6)	MAAC	A	0-0		80%	9.0
2-18	Boston University (175.2)	AE	H	0-0		75%	7.5
2-24	Rider (213.8)	MAAC	A	0-0		63%	3.5
2-26	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	A	0-0		34%	-4.6

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola MD	MAAC	26.41	26.37	82.08	77.45	16.94	14.48
Niagara	MAAC	5.24	4.44	36.36	40.95	-1.43	-0.80
Canisius	MAAC	5.19	4.43	19.05	21.27	-3.21	-2.54
Siena	MAAC	5.18	4.43	50.00	48.92	0.00	-0.10
Rider	MAAC	3.02	4.41	39.13	39.88	-0.66	-0.89
Marist	MAAC	3.16	4.40	36.36	35.15	-0.86	-1.31
Manhattan	MAAC	3.05	4.38	70.83	71.54	1.27	1.89
Iona	MAAC	3.16	4.37	78.26	80.01	1.78	2.62
St. Peter's	MAAC	3.06	4.37	22.73	25.55	-1.67	-2.14
Fairfield	MAAC	3.06	4.34	57.14	56.99	0.44	0.61
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.47	2.01	14.29	16.94	-1.77	-1.33
New Hampshire	AE	2.43	1.96	36.84	40.06	-0.64	-0.39
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.62	1.93	57.89	57.55	0.41	0.29
Boston University	AE	0.16	1.88	48.00	52.78	-0.01	0.10
Bucknell	Pat	2.32	1.81	77.27	77.68	1.27	1.00
Kentucky	SEC	2.32	1.78	95.65	92.32	2.12	1.51
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.38	1.78	27.27	29.63	-1.08	-0.73
George Washington	A10	2.33	1.75	36.36	33.19	-0.64	-0.59
Coppin St.	MEAC	2.27	1.72	44.44	51.89	-0.25	0.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.27	1.72	52.38	50.71	0.11	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	2.27	1.72	45.45	41.72	-0.21	-0.29
Vermont	AE	0.37	0.41	60.00	62.49	0.07	0.10
Binghamton	AE	0.35	0.38	0.00	4.02	-0.35	-0.35
Hartford	AE	0.36	0.38	17.39	20.97	-0.23	-0.22
Albany	AE	0.31	0.32	60.00	60.42	0.06	0.07
Maine	AE	0.21	0.27	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.16	0.23	66.67	68.05	0.05	0.08
Fordham	A10	0.25	0.21	40.91	34.50	-0.05	-0.06
Richmond	A10	0.25	0.20	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.30	0.20	68.42	66.45	0.11	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.20	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.08
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.19	0.20	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.20	32.00	35.39	-0.03	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.18	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.20	0.18	69.57	61.31	0.08	0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.20	0.17	70.83	71.05	0.08	0.07
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.20	0.17	56.52	57.15	0.03	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.19	0.17	79.17	78.10	0.11	0.10
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.15	4.00	5.26	-0.14	-0.14
Colgate	Pat	0.16	0.15	30.43	29.50	-0.06	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.16	0.15	40.91	42.05	-0.03	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.15	9.52	13.19	-0.16	-0.11
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.15	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.20	0.15	59.09	50.82	0.04	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.25	0.15	21.74	22.76	-0.14	-0.08
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.20	0.14	45.45	45.70	-0.02	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.20	0.14	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.20	0.14	40.00	40.18	-0.04	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.14	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.12	18.18	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.12	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.12	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.04
American	Pat	0.15	0.12	65.22	63.79	0.05	0.03
Army	Pat	0.15	0.12	40.91	41.72	-0.03	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.20	0.12	26.32	28.83	-0.09	-0.05
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.12	20.83	20.60	-0.06	-0.07
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.12	30.43	26.44	-0.04	-0.06
Mercer	ASun	0.20	0.12	70.83	71.64	0.08	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.12	8.70	12.13	-0.08	-0.09
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.12	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.12	73.91	74.91	0.05	0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.12	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.10	0.12	28.00	28.91	-0.04	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.11	95.83	92.01	0.13	0.10
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.11	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.10	25.00	37.58	-0.06	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.10	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.11	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.09	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
Providence	BE	0.11	0.09	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.09	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.15	0.09	30.00	27.84	-0.06	-0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.09	36.84	41.45	-0.03	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.09	70.83	64.42	0.06	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.09	30.43	31.43	-0.04	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.09	27.27	23.80	-0.05	-0.05
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.09	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.09	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.06
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.09	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.09	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.08	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.07	36.36	38.48	-0.03	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.07	68.18	69.68	0.04	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.07	72.73	64.43	0.05	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.06	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.06	14.29	17.17	-0.08	-0.04
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.11	0.06	44.00	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.07	-0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.09	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.06	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.00	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.06	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.02	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.03
Temple	A10	0.00	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.00	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.06	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.06	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.03	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.10	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.06	0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.06	56.52	55.95	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.00	0.06	82.61	84.57	0.00	0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.00	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.06	75.00	75.78	0.05	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.06	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.06	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.06	70.83	72.23	0.02	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.06	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.03
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.08	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	35.00	40.78	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.75	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	50.65	-0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.23	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.00	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.00	0.03	78.26	72.34	0.00	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.00	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.00	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.00	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.00	0.03	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00