live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:202.1
Current RPI:99
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:72
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:137
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-763.00.01%
20-869.50.06%
19-987.10.24%
18-10101.71.01%
17-11118.23.00%
16-12136.96.15%
15-13156.311.56%
14-14177.415.58%
13-15198.818.60%
12-16219.917.22%
11-17241.413.06%
10-18261.57.75%
9-19278.83.68%
8-20295.11.55%
7-21308.40.40%
6-22312.90.09%
5-23330.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Duquesne (244.3)A10A65-60L0%0.0
11-16LIU Brooklyn (251.2)NECA65-61L0%0.0
11-18Notre Dame (24.1)ACCA83-48L0%0.0
11-23Fairfield (164.8)MAACH81-66W100%0.0
11-26Creighton (23.8)BEA82-52L0%0.0
11-30Stony Brook (252.2)AEA70-71W100%0.0
12-3Mount St. Mary's (174.1)NECH64-57W100%0.0
12-7Towson (154.9)CAAA0-022%-9.2
12-10Binghamton (260.2)AEA0-053%1.0
12-23UMass Lowell (280.6)AEH0-070%6.4
12-30American (299.0)PatA0-052%0.7
1-2Lafayette (276.3)PatH0-072%7.2
1-5Lehigh (107.9)PatA0-019%-10.7
1-8Army (190.1)PatA0-032%-5.8
1-11Navy (261.6)PatH0-067%5.3
1-16Boston University (179.7)PatH0-046%-1.1
1-18Bucknell (94.2)PatA0-018%-10.9
1-21Colgate (289.2)PatA0-049%-0.4
1-25Holy Cross (195.1)PatH0-057%2.2
1-28Lafayette (276.3)PatA0-053%0.9
2-1Lehigh (107.9)PatH0-035%-4.5
2-4Army (190.1)PatH0-052%0.5
2-8Navy (261.6)PatA0-047%-1.0
2-11Boston University (179.7)PatA0-027%-7.4
2-15Bucknell (94.2)PatH0-035%-4.7
2-19Colgate (289.2)PatH0-069%5.8
2-22Holy Cross (195.1)PatA0-037%-4.0
2-25American (299.0)PatH0-072%6.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat27.9426.4052.0048.511.12-0.79
ColgatePat0.004.6412.5029.30-0.00-1.92
BucknellPat0.454.6170.0070.320.181.87
ArmyPat0.454.6142.8649.68-0.06-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.454.6042.8654.46-0.060.41
LehighPat0.454.6037.5060.94-0.111.01
Holy CrossPat0.004.5537.5047.06-0.00-0.27
NavyPat0.004.5533.3338.21-0.00-1.07
AmericanPat0.004.5512.5027.95-0.00-2.00
LafayettePat0.004.5442.8635.25-0.00-1.34
BinghamtonAE0.002.0350.0042.600.00-0.30
Stony BrookAE7.142.0042.8644.73-1.02-0.21
UMass LowellAE0.452.0020.0035.34-0.27-0.59
Mount St. Mary'sNEC7.141.9712.5050.76-5.360.03
LIU BrooklynNEC7.141.9357.1450.761.020.03
FairfieldMAAC7.141.9071.4357.883.060.30
DuquesneA107.141.8533.3337.17-2.38-0.47
Notre DameACC7.141.85100.0076.217.140.97
TowsonCAA0.451.8242.8652.97-0.060.11
CreightonBE7.141.79100.0075.737.140.92
New HampshireAE0.000.3762.5062.120.000.09
St. Francis PANEC0.360.3333.3340.37-0.12-0.06
MaineAE0.450.3314.2923.40-0.32-0.18
UMBCAE0.360.3380.0054.190.210.03
AlbanyAE0.000.3042.8660.66-0.000.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.450.3044.4438.15-0.05-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.360.3030.0045.49-0.14-0.03
HartfordAE0.450.2822.2226.44-0.25-0.13
NortheasternCAA0.890.2444.4443.25-0.10-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2412.5026.05-0.00-0.12
WagnerNEC0.450.2428.5752.65-0.190.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.2257.1450.860.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.21100.0084.740.000.15
ColumbiaIvy0.450.2142.8643.78-0.06-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.2116.6739.99-0.00-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.2128.5727.38-0.00-0.09
BryantNEC0.400.2122.2246.51-0.22-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.2162.5062.080.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.1920.0060.00-0.000.04
CornellIvy0.000.1828.5730.43-0.00-0.07
VermontAE0.000.1862.5071.400.000.08
NJITASun0.000.1844.4451.58-0.000.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1877.7872.210.000.08
PennIvy0.000.1633.3356.66-0.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.360.1537.5044.42-0.09-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.450.1575.0050.980.220.00
La SalleA100.000.1557.1456.540.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.450.1557.1429.760.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.000.1544.4434.60-0.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1375.0066.120.000.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1250.0041.460.00-0.02
XavierBE0.000.1287.5070.880.000.05
MarylandB100.450.1287.5059.030.330.02
St. John'sBE0.000.1244.4436.20-0.00-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1266.6761.690.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1222.2232.01-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.450.1233.3350.05-0.150.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.1275.0070.350.000.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.1228.5737.54-0.00-0.03
ButlerBE0.000.12100.0074.830.000.06
MassachusettsA100.000.1271.4358.170.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0942.8645.34-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0957.1464.540.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0925.0035.75-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.450.0971.4368.930.190.03
HofstraCAA0.000.0955.5643.870.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.360.0966.6746.170.12-0.01
George MasonA100.400.0962.5046.490.10-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0966.6770.400.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0950.0048.500.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0977.7855.180.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0642.8663.63-0.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.110.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.51-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0637.5044.87-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0657.1459.020.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0677.7862.010.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.800.000.03
RiderMAAC0.450.0657.1450.790.060.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6743.53-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.33-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0675.0072.930.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.450.060.0020.72-0.45-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.0642.8639.64-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0671.4337.680.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0662.5054.660.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.600.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0612.5030.17-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0677.7864.250.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0677.7859.940.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0675.0054.480.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.06-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.400.0662.5070.890.100.02
MinnesotaB100.400.0688.8966.920.310.02
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.270.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.0688.8967.470.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5642.150.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.370.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0633.3349.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.32-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.360.0675.0048.980.18-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.180.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0625.0023.99-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2935.05-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.43-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.450.0314.2942.77-0.32-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
Arizona St.P120.000.0355.5637.870.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.450.0333.3352.03-0.150.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.450.0325.0042.78-0.22-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0387.5074.510.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0328.5746.79-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.92-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.450.0375.0047.990.22-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.17-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.770.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.450.0362.5074.160.110.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.450.0355.5649.660.05-0.00
Washington St.P120.450.0342.8629.20-0.06-0.01
WisconsinB100.450.0377.7876.550.250.02
ArkansasSEC0.400.0387.5069.040.300.01
Chicago St.WAC0.400.0320.0022.08-0.24-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.360.0328.5731.07-0.15-0.01
ColoradoP120.400.0375.0062.450.200.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0390.0080.060.000.02
IowaB100.400.0344.4438.41-0.04-0.01
Iowa St.B120.400.0375.0071.330.200.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.08-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.360.0387.5082.220.270.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
MichiganB100.400.0377.7865.840.220.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.400.030.0020.63-0.40-0.02
NorthwesternB100.400.0375.0066.090.200.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
SeattleWAC0.400.0316.6738.83-0.26-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.400.0357.1449.420.06-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.360.0375.0055.480.180.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.400.0362.5067.590.100.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0388.8978.430.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
West VirginiaB120.400.0385.7183.250.280.02