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Through games of Jan 27, 2015.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:274.5
Current RPI:242
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:198
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:3-5
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14177.50.02%
14-15201.10.37%
13-16219.01.78%
12-17236.36.43%
11-18253.516.17%
10-19270.427.64%
9-20285.728.02%
8-21298.515.86%
7-22308.73.70%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Texas Tech (188.2)B12A71-59L0%0.0
11-16Cornell (198.0)IvyH76-71W100%0.0
11-19UMBC (334.0)AEH45-38W100%0.0
11-22Butler (26.3)BEA80-39L0%0.0
11-25Syracuse (71.4)ACCA70-37L0%0.0
11-29Siena (257.5)MAACH71-81L0%0.0
12-2Columbia (133.3)IvyA62-64W100%0.0
12-6Mount St. Mary's (181.8)NECH65-74L0%0.0
12-9Saint Joseph's (200.6)A10A68-42L0%0.0
12-21Stony Brook (96.6)AEA67-52L0%0.0
12-28Fairfield (280.2)MAACN59-61W100%0.0
12-31Navy (275.2)PatA70-47L0%0.0
1-3Army (181.2)PatH53-77L0%0.0
1-7American (128.2)PatH56-53W100%0.0
1-10Lehigh (161.1)PatA60-65W100%0.0
1-14Lafayette (146.1)PatA69-65L0%0.0
1-18Boston University (197.9)PatH91-86W100%0.0
1-21Bucknell (169.3)PatH61-75L0%0.0
1-24Colgate (179.3)PatA59-58L0%0.0
1-28Holy Cross (210.1)PatH0-042%-2.4
1-31Army (181.2)PatA0-014%-11.9
2-4American (128.2)PatA0-012%-12.8
2-7Lehigh (161.1)PatH0-033%-5.0
2-11Lafayette (146.1)PatH0-028%-6.3
2-14Boston University (197.9)PatA0-017%-10.3
2-18Bucknell (169.3)PatA0-015%-11.2
2-22Colgate (179.3)PatH0-029%-6.1
2-25Holy Cross (210.1)PatA0-020%-9.2
2-28Navy (275.2)PatH0-054%1.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat26.3226.4137.3532.71-6.66-9.13
BucknellPat3.344.5447.3747.97-0.18-0.18
AmericanPat3.284.5157.8957.620.520.69
ColgatePat3.284.5136.8443.50-0.86-0.59
LehighPat3.214.4752.9453.440.190.31
Holy CrossPat0.624.4341.1840.79-0.11-0.82
NavyPat3.064.4127.7829.88-1.36-1.78
ArmyPat3.044.4164.7160.470.900.92
Boston UniversityPat3.044.4141.1842.74-0.54-0.64
LafayettePat3.054.4152.9454.860.180.43
ColumbiaIvy3.192.0857.1458.420.460.35
Stony BrookAE2.941.9057.8964.550.460.55
CornellIvy3.001.9050.0049.910.00-0.00
SyracuseACC2.771.8865.0057.260.830.27
SienaMAAC2.911.8738.8935.91-0.65-0.53
UMBCAE2.771.8515.7920.72-1.90-1.08
FairfieldMAAC2.841.8431.5830.58-1.04-0.71
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2.761.8444.4447.91-0.31-0.08
ButlerBE2.631.7270.0069.501.050.67
Saint Joseph'sA102.631.7238.8937.29-0.58-0.44
Texas TechB122.631.7252.6339.280.14-0.37
BinghamtonAE0.490.425.0012.05-0.44-0.32
AlbanyAE0.400.3663.1665.040.100.11
CanisiusMAAC0.350.3057.8962.600.060.08
PennIvy0.210.2733.3334.01-0.07-0.09
MaristMAAC0.410.2610.0013.98-0.33-0.19
HarvardIvy0.070.2564.2965.370.020.08
BrownIvy0.070.2441.1837.94-0.01-0.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.140.2440.0045.21-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.280.2457.8956.850.040.03
New HampshireAE0.270.2450.0052.990.000.01
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2450.0055.570.000.03
VillanovaBE0.330.2390.0084.460.270.16
PrincetonIvy0.140.2143.7542.91-0.02-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.280.2140.0041.45-0.06-0.04
MaineAE0.270.2110.0012.92-0.21-0.15
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.2147.6250.23-0.010.00
YaleIvy0.070.1864.7164.140.020.05
HartfordAE0.070.1852.6350.830.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.300.1833.3334.35-0.10-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.1836.8438.60-0.07-0.04
RiderMAAC0.210.1861.9062.400.050.04
VermontAE0.270.1852.6358.430.010.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.270.1854.5556.860.020.02
La SalleA100.200.1755.0053.300.020.01
NJITind0.140.1652.3854.480.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.1555.0060.930.020.03
WagnerNEC0.230.1527.7832.09-0.10-0.05
NortheasternCAA0.210.1566.6767.010.070.05
DukeACC0.140.1589.4783.700.110.10
ProvidenceBE0.200.1475.0065.100.100.04
DartmouthIvy0.000.1250.0050.960.000.00
BryantNEC0.070.1250.0049.290.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.1250.0054.860.000.01
VMISC0.140.1231.5837.63-0.05-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1260.0051.930.000.00
Arizona St.P120.140.1250.0052.240.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.200.1214.2915.33-0.14-0.08
DePaulBE0.070.1252.3843.990.00-0.01
KansasB120.140.1284.2176.020.100.06
West VirginiaB120.140.1285.0075.980.100.06
Notre DameACC0.140.1290.4884.130.110.08
IonaMAAC0.140.1271.4374.820.060.06
ManhattanMAAC0.070.1247.3747.19-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.1252.3854.020.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.140.1215.7923.08-0.09-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.200.1245.0040.37-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.160.09100.0098.460.160.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0957.1462.500.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0984.2179.310.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.140.0935.2936.81-0.04-0.02
TowsonCAA0.140.0940.0037.66-0.03-0.02
FordhamA100.140.0925.0024.53-0.07-0.04
MassachusettsA100.140.0952.6353.110.010.01
Penn St.B100.140.0965.0051.890.040.00
St. BonaventureA100.140.0961.1156.100.030.01
TempleAmer0.140.0965.0062.230.040.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.190.0925.0025.67-0.10-0.04
Seton HallBE0.190.0968.4260.970.070.02
HamptonMEAC0.130.0940.0038.75-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.0973.6872.660.060.04
MichiganB100.130.0960.0052.320.030.00
GeorgetownBE0.130.0870.0065.430.050.03
OklahomaB120.060.0863.1664.300.020.02
St. John'sBE0.130.0866.6760.540.040.02
HofstraCAA0.150.0666.6770.420.050.03
DelawareCAA0.070.0621.0522.40-0.04-0.03
USCP120.070.0647.3740.06-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.140.0641.1844.38-0.03-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0665.0063.270.020.02
RadfordBSth0.150.0661.1161.500.030.01
The CitadelSC0.070.0629.4131.64-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.150.0627.7829.47-0.07-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0629.4131.64-0.03-0.02
George WashingtonA100.140.0676.1969.610.070.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.0670.5967.540.060.02
IowaB100.130.0665.0063.250.040.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0626.3233.54-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.520.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0657.1458.280.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0635.0043.93-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0676.1976.820.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0616.6717.51-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0670.5968.940.000.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0660.0058.670.010.01
BelmontOVC0.130.0663.1663.050.030.01
BaylorB120.000.0673.6869.040.000.02
CreightonBE0.060.0642.8638.54-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0678.9569.670.040.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0657.1446.810.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0652.6346.610.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.130.0680.9576.320.080.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4261.000.020.01
TCUB120.070.0673.6861.520.030.01
TexasB120.070.0670.0067.480.030.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0645.0037.52-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.060.0666.6765.790.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0650.0042.940.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0361.1160.510.020.01
AkronMAC0.070.0368.4263.800.020.01
ArizonaP120.070.0390.0087.200.060.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0368.4265.880.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0373.6872.820.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0373.6866.290.030.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0321.0526.17-0.04-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0360.0056.680.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9579.440.040.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0352.9453.050.000.00
WashingtonP120.070.0373.6865.190.030.01
DavidsonA100.000.0376.4776.760.000.02
DenverSum0.070.0345.0047.71-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.070.0329.4127.47-0.03-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0395.0094.580.060.03
RichmondA100.000.0352.6355.770.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0344.4437.39-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0370.5975.590.030.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0345.0047.77-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.070.0385.0082.330.050.02
WoffordSC0.070.0373.6873.950.030.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0328.5736.58-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0347.3738.51-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0355.0045.710.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0363.1662.080.020.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0357.8948.620.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0350.0044.140.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0342.1138.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0347.3742.86-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0336.8435.44-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0375.0068.280.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0345.0043.86-0.01-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0342.1151.96-0.010.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0384.2177.810.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0361.1158.480.010.00
LSUSEC0.070.0378.9569.070.040.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0373.6870.420.030.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0333.3334.80-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0361.9060.120.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.070.0335.2933.21-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0350.0043.500.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0340.0048.17-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0321.0533.24-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0328.5732.29-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0363.1654.270.020.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0358.8257.840.010.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0093.910.000.02