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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:212.0
Current RPI:212
Expected SOS:238
Current SOS:238
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-10
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:108
Expected OOC SOS:112



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16212.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Duquesne (267.0)A10A65-60L0%0.0
11-16LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA65-61L0%0.0
11-18Notre Dame (23.0)ACCA83-48L0%0.0
11-23Fairfield (180.0)MAACH81-66W100%0.0
11-26Creighton (26.0)BEA82-52L0%0.0
11-30Stony Brook (176.0)AEA70-71W100%0.0
12-3Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH64-57W100%0.0
12-7Towson (88.0)CAAA70-53L0%0.0
12-10Binghamton (311.0)AEA85-90W100%0.0
12-23UMass Lowell (309.0)AEH69-60W100%0.0
12-30American (310.0)PatA66-68W100%0.0
1-2Lafayette (321.0)PatH69-78L0%0.0
1-5Lehigh (97.0)PatA83-84W100%0.0
1-8Army (266.0)PatA66-57L0%0.0
1-11Navy (208.0)PatH62-75L0%0.0
1-16Boston University (187.0)PatH77-69W100%0.0
1-18Bucknell (63.0)PatA76-63L0%0.0
1-21Colgate (294.0)PatA52-49L0%0.0
1-25Holy Cross (204.0)PatH65-62W100%0.0
1-28Lafayette (321.0)PatA62-70W100%0.0
2-1Lehigh (97.0)PatH62-60W100%0.0
2-4Army (266.0)PatH78-63W100%0.0
2-8Navy (208.0)PatA62-59L0%0.0
2-11Boston University (187.0)PatA78-63L0%0.0
2-15Bucknell (63.0)PatH78-77W100%0.0
2-19Colgate (294.0)PatH56-66L0%0.0
2-22Holy Cross (204.0)PatA63-62L0%0.0
2-25American (310.0)PatH62-64L0%0.0
2-28Lafayette (321.0)PatH67-64W100%0.0
3-2Boston University (187.0)PatA64-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat26.5126.5149.2149.21-0.42-0.42
Boston UniversityPat6.026.0253.5753.570.430.43
LafayettePat5.905.9026.9226.92-2.73-2.73
LehighPat4.544.5465.5265.521.411.41
BucknellPat4.534.5378.1278.122.552.55
ArmyPat4.464.4637.9337.93-1.08-1.08
ColgatePat4.444.4424.1424.14-2.29-2.29
NavyPat4.404.4044.8344.83-0.46-0.46
Holy CrossPat4.364.3646.6746.67-0.29-0.29
AmericanPat4.354.3525.0025.00-2.18-2.18
BinghamtonAE1.911.9132.1432.14-0.68-0.68
Stony BrookAE1.891.8960.0060.000.380.38
UMass LowellAE1.891.8934.4834.48-0.59-0.59
LIU BrooklynNEC1.821.8260.0060.000.360.36
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.821.8257.5857.580.280.28
FairfieldMAAC1.771.7755.1755.170.180.18
DuquesneA101.721.7229.0329.03-0.72-0.72
Notre DameACC1.721.7272.7372.730.780.78
TowsonCAA1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
CreightonBE1.671.6771.8871.880.730.73
New HampshireAE0.360.3658.6258.620.060.06
MaineAE0.330.3319.3519.35-0.20-0.20
Sacred HeartNEC0.320.3240.6240.62-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.320.3248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.310.3142.4242.42-0.05-0.05
AlbanyAE0.300.3060.6160.610.060.06
UMBCAE0.300.3057.1457.140.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.290.2948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.250.2528.1228.12-0.11-0.11
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
St. Francis NYNEC0.240.2410.0010.00-0.19-0.19
VillanovaBE0.240.2491.1891.180.200.20
WagnerNEC0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
SyracuseACC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
CornellIvy0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
NJITASun0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.190.1978.5778.570.110.11
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1938.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.180.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
BryantNEC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
PennIvy0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.170.1784.8584.850.120.12
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
MaristMAAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1328.1228.12-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.130.1361.7661.760.030.03
La SalleA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
St. John'sBE0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0561.5461.540.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
MichiganB100.020.0268.5768.570.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01