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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:255.0
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:167
Current Record:9-21
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:31



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-21255.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH71-86L0%0.0
11-16LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH68-71L0%0.0
11-18UMBC (335.0)AEA57-76W100%0.0
11-21St. Bonaventure (30.0)A10A94-82L0%0.0
11-24Stony Brook (59.0)AEH63-76L0%0.0
11-28Siena (104.0)MAACA90-82L0%0.0
12-1Kansas (1.0)B12A94-61L0%0.0
12-5Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA85-68L0%0.0
12-8Towson (150.0)CAAH54-65L0%0.0
12-22Fairfield (142.0)MAACA94-88L0%0.0
12-27Northwestern (115.0)B10A74-59L0%0.0
12-30American (231.0)PatH75-67W100%0.0
1-2Lafayette (329.0)PatA78-81W100%0.0
1-6Lehigh (168.0)PatH51-50W100%0.0
1-9Army (214.0)PatH59-73L0%0.0
1-13Navy (216.0)PatA60-52L0%0.0
1-18Boston University (196.0)PatA87-84L0%0.0
1-20Bucknell (183.0)PatH58-67L0%0.0
1-27Holy Cross (248.0)PatA54-71W100%0.0
1-30Lafayette (329.0)PatH84-77W100%0.0
2-1Colgate (241.0)PatH68-65W100%0.0
2-3Lehigh (168.0)PatA71-66L0%0.0
2-6Army (214.0)PatA99-100W100%0.0
2-10Navy (216.0)PatH51-71L0%0.0
2-13Boston University (196.0)PatH65-73L0%0.0
2-17Bucknell (183.0)PatA87-52L0%0.0
2-21Colgate (241.0)PatA93-90L0%0.0
2-24Holy Cross (248.0)PatH78-63W100%0.0
2-27American (231.0)PatA67-66L0%0.0
3-1Holy Cross (248.0)PatH67-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat26.4026.4030.2830.28-10.41-10.41
Holy CrossPat6.076.0743.3343.33-0.81-0.81
LehighPat4.494.4951.7251.720.150.15
AmericanPat4.414.4137.9337.93-1.07-1.07
BucknellPat4.404.4051.8551.850.160.16
NavyPat4.394.3953.3353.330.290.29
ArmyPat4.394.3958.6258.620.760.76
ColgatePat4.324.3240.7440.74-0.80-0.80
Boston UniversityPat4.314.3151.7251.720.150.15
LafayettePat4.304.3021.4321.43-2.46-2.46
UMBCAE1.911.9122.5822.58-1.05-1.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.911.9140.6240.62-0.36-0.36
Stony BrookAE1.851.8579.3179.311.091.09
SienaMAAC1.801.8062.5062.500.450.45
FairfieldMAAC1.801.8058.0658.060.290.29
KansasB121.741.7487.5087.501.311.31
LIU BrooklynNEC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB101.691.6961.2961.290.380.38
TowsonCAA1.691.6958.6258.620.290.29
St. BonaventureA101.691.6972.4172.410.760.76
Tennessee St.OVC1.671.6762.9662.960.430.43
New HampshireAE0.350.3558.6258.620.060.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.340.3440.0040.00-0.07-0.07
BinghamtonAE0.330.3326.6726.67-0.15-0.15
AlbanyAE0.320.3274.1974.190.150.15
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.270.2754.8454.840.030.03
MaineAE0.260.2626.6726.67-0.12-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.240.2442.4242.42-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
QuinnipiacMAAC0.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.2231.2531.25-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.210.2135.7135.71-0.06-0.06
St. Francis PANEC0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
VermontAE0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.180.1823.3323.33-0.10-0.10
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1879.4179.410.110.11
NortheasternCAA0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
NJITASun0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.160.1621.8821.88-0.09-0.09
HarvardIvy0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
SyracuseACC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
CornellIvy0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
George WashingtonA100.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
HofstraCAA0.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
MassachusettsA100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
George MasonA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
La SalleA100.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Penn St.B100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
RiderMAAC0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
YaleIvy0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
BrownIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
OhioMAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00