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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Loyola MD

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:274.0
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:247
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19274.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola MD.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Binghamton (325.0)AEA74-79W100%0.0
11-10Cornell (334.0)IvyA89-93W100%0.0
11-16Fairfield (289.0)MAACH59-52W100%0.0
11-20UMBC (327.0)AEA83-89W100%0.0
11-26Connecticut (22.0)AmerA76-66L0%0.0
12-2West Virginia (88.0)B12A96-47L0%0.0
12-7Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA70-58L0%0.0
12-19Stony Brook (165.0)AEH69-76L0%0.0
12-21Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10H77-88L0%0.0
12-30Miami FL (110.0)ACCA71-48L0%0.0
1-2Navy (321.0)PatH63-57W100%0.0
1-5Army (235.0)PatA91-82L0%0.0
1-8American (118.0)PatA65-51L0%0.0
1-11Lehigh (236.0)PatH72-68W100%0.0
1-13Lafayette (258.0)PatH77-63W100%0.0
1-20Boston University (84.0)PatA72-58L0%0.0
1-22Bucknell (167.0)PatA70-60L0%0.0
1-25Colgate (256.0)PatH67-60W100%0.0
1-29Holy Cross (127.0)PatA60-51L0%0.0
2-1Army (235.0)PatH71-77L0%0.0
2-5American (118.0)PatH62-58W100%0.0
2-8Lehigh (236.0)PatA66-52L0%0.0
2-12Lafayette (258.0)PatA61-44L0%0.0
2-15Boston University (84.0)PatH72-87L0%0.0
2-19Bucknell (167.0)PatH53-55L0%0.0
2-22Colgate (256.0)PatA84-60L0%0.0
2-26Holy Cross (127.0)PatH52-65L0%0.0
3-1Navy (321.0)PatA65-67W100%0.0
3-3Lafayette (258.0)PatH71-84L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola MD's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola MD's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola MD.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola MDPat26.4226.4235.1135.11-7.87-7.87
LafayettePat6.116.1129.6329.63-2.49-2.49
Boston UniversityPat4.664.6668.7568.751.751.75
AmericanPat4.624.6263.3363.331.231.23
ColgatePat4.574.5739.2939.29-0.98-0.98
Holy CrossPat4.544.5456.6756.670.600.60
NavyPat4.544.5429.6329.63-1.85-1.85
BucknellPat4.514.5150.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat4.504.5042.8642.86-0.64-0.64
LehighPat4.484.4843.3343.33-0.60-0.60
UMBCAE2.092.0928.5728.57-0.90-0.90
BinghamtonAE2.042.0424.1424.14-1.05-1.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.921.9248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Stony BrookAE1.871.8767.7467.740.660.66
CornellIvy1.841.843.853.85-1.70-1.70
FairfieldMAAC1.841.8422.5822.58-1.01-1.01
Saint Joseph'sA101.801.8071.8871.880.790.79
ConnecticutAmer1.771.7775.7675.760.910.91
West VirginiaB121.751.7551.6151.610.060.06
Miami FLACC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.400.4056.2556.250.050.05
St. Francis PANEC0.370.3732.2632.26-0.13-0.13
HartfordAE0.360.3651.5251.520.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.320.3260.0060.000.060.06
MaineAE0.280.2817.8617.86-0.18-0.18
Sacred HeartNEC0.270.2716.1316.13-0.19-0.19
St. Francis NYNEC0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
New HampshireAE0.220.2217.2417.24-0.15-0.15
UMass LowellAE0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.210.2170.3770.370.080.08
NJITind0.200.2036.0036.00-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
BryantNEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
HarvardIvy0.190.1986.2186.210.140.14
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
YaleIvy0.180.1851.8551.850.010.01
SyracuseACC0.170.1784.3884.380.120.12
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
WagnerNEC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
MaristMAAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
BrownIvy0.150.1551.8551.850.010.01
VillanovaBE0.140.1487.5087.500.100.10
FordhamA100.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.100.10
George WashingtonA100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
The CitadelSC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Notre DameACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
RiderMAAC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Seton HallBE0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
DaytonA100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.2121.21-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00