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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:281.0
Current RPI:281
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:228
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20281.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas St. (179.0)SBN57-61L0%0.0
11-13SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCN77-68L0%0.0
11-14Hawaii (300.0)BWA64-63L0%0.0
11-22South Florida (316.0)AmerH78-62W100%0.0
11-29Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA82-81L0%0.0
12-3Hofstra (196.0)CAAH80-88L0%0.0
12-6Ohio St. (90.0)B10A77-79W100%0.0
12-16Miami FL (41.0)ACCA76-56L0%0.0
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH62-75L0%0.0
12-31Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH54-69L0%0.0
1-2Marshall (112.0)CUSAH72-89L0%0.0
1-7FIU (338.0)CUSAH73-64W100%0.0
1-12UTSA (264.0)CUSAA68-63L0%0.0
1-14UTEP (222.0)CUSAA66-65L0%0.0
1-19UAB (201.0)CUSAH78-80L0%0.0
1-21Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAH57-86L0%0.0
1-26FIU (338.0)CUSAA65-83W100%0.0
2-2Charlotte (240.0)CUSAA75-77W100%0.0
2-4Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA61-65W100%0.0
2-9North Texas (339.0)CUSAH64-70L0%0.0
2-11Rice (167.0)CUSAH75-81L0%0.0
2-16Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA95-69L0%0.0
2-18Southern Miss (331.0)CUSAA82-94W100%0.0
2-23UTEP (222.0)CUSAH55-60L0%0.0
2-25UTSA (264.0)CUSAH73-66W100%0.0
3-2UAB (201.0)CUSAA79-59L0%0.0
3-4Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA93-59L0%0.0
3-8Marshall (112.0)CUSAN89-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA26.1526.1530.1430.14-10.39-10.39
Middle TennesseeCUSA4.434.4387.1087.103.293.29
MarshallCUSA4.404.4053.1253.120.280.28
UTSACUSA4.354.3537.9337.93-1.05-1.05
UTEPCUSA4.324.3241.3841.38-0.75-0.75
UABCUSA4.324.3246.6746.67-0.29-0.29
FIUCUSA4.314.3118.5218.52-2.71-2.71
Louisiana TechCUSA2.652.6566.6766.670.880.88
Western KentuckyCUSA2.582.5845.1645.16-0.25-0.25
Southern MissCUSA2.572.5725.0025.00-1.28-1.28
RiceCUSA2.542.5463.3363.330.680.68
Old DominionCUSA2.532.5363.3363.330.670.67
CharlotteCUSA2.532.5342.8642.86-0.36-0.36
North TexasCUSA2.452.4518.5218.52-1.54-1.54
Texas St.SB1.911.9156.6756.670.250.25
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.901.9014.8114.81-1.34-1.34
HawaiiBW1.881.8842.8642.86-0.27-0.27
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.881.8875.8675.860.970.97
Tennessee MartinOVC1.851.8560.0060.000.370.37
Ohio St.B101.841.8454.8454.840.180.18
HofstraCAA1.791.7943.3343.33-0.24-0.24
Miami FLACC1.791.7964.5264.520.520.52
South FloridaAmer1.791.7924.1424.14-0.92-0.92
Murray St.OVC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.200.2040.0040.00-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.200.2058.8258.820.040.04
StetsonASun0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
ElonCAA0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
James MadisonCAA0.150.1528.1228.12-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.140.1477.7877.780.080.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1244.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TulaneAmer0.120.1219.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
DelawareCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1283.3383.330.080.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
George WashingtonA100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
DrexelCAA0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.090.0912.9012.90-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.096.906.90-0.07-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
MarylandB100.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Michigan St.B100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
FurmanSC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00