live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:303.0
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:202
Current SOS:202
Current Record:7-20
Expected Record:7-20
Current Conf Record:2-16
Expected Conf Record:2-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-9
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:132
Expected OOC SOS:234



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-20303.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (259.0)CAAA64-58L0%0.0
11-20Harvard (52.0)IvyA71-49L0%0.0
11-23Georgia (38.0)SECA74-61L0%0.0
12-3East Carolina (219.0)AmerH72-63W100%0.0
12-13UCF (257.0)AmerA41-54W100%0.0
12-16Stetson (335.0)ASunH79-69W100%0.0
12-20St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA61-56L0%0.0
12-22Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH69-66W100%0.0
12-30Jacksonville (338.0)ASunA50-68W100%0.0
1-4FIU (217.0)CUSAH60-62L0%0.0
1-8UAB (130.0)CUSAA66-57L0%0.0
1-10Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAA82-58L0%0.0
1-15Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAH85-88L0%0.0
1-17Marshall (296.0)CUSAH76-62W100%0.0
1-29Charlotte (211.0)CUSAA86-61L0%0.0
1-31Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA68-57L0%0.0
2-3FIU (217.0)CUSAA64-56L0%0.0
2-5UTEP (78.0)CUSAH56-63L0%0.0
2-7UTSA (237.0)CUSAH59-74L0%0.0
2-12Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA65-54L0%0.0
2-14Southern Miss (283.0)CUSAA62-54L0%0.0
2-19North Texas (224.0)CUSAH72-79L0%0.0
2-21Rice (247.0)CUSAH69-76L0%0.0
2-26Western Kentucky (117.0)CUSAA71-68L0%0.0
2-28Marshall (296.0)CUSAA79-63L0%0.0
3-5UAB (130.0)CUSAH62-59W100%0.0
3-7Middle Tennessee (138.0)CUSAH54-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA26.1226.1224.7924.79-13.17-13.17
FIUCUSA4.514.5141.3841.38-0.78-0.78
Middle TennesseeCUSA4.514.5150.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA4.514.5154.8454.840.440.44
Western KentuckyCUSA4.484.4857.1457.140.640.64
MarshallCUSA4.434.4328.5728.57-1.90-1.90
CharlotteCUSA2.672.6741.9441.94-0.43-0.43
Louisiana TechCUSA2.662.6674.1974.191.291.29
UTEPCUSA2.642.6467.7467.740.940.94
Old DominionCUSA2.632.6376.6776.671.401.40
UTSACUSA2.582.5840.7440.74-0.48-0.48
RiceCUSA2.582.5832.1432.14-0.92-0.92
Southern MissCUSA2.562.5623.0823.08-1.38-1.38
North TexasCUSA2.552.5539.2939.29-0.55-0.55
StetsonASun2.012.0122.2222.22-1.12-1.12
UCFAmer1.971.9739.2939.29-0.42-0.42
East CarolinaAmer1.951.9540.0040.00-0.39-0.39
JacksonvilleASun1.921.9225.0025.00-0.96-0.96
ElonCAA1.881.8840.0040.00-0.38-0.38
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.851.8562.9662.960.480.48
GeorgiaSEC1.851.8564.5264.520.540.54
HarvardIvy1.851.8573.0873.080.850.85
St. Francis NYNEC1.851.8565.6265.620.580.58
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.220.2265.5265.520.070.07
USC UpstateASun0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.220.2226.6726.67-0.10-0.10
BelmontOVC0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
North FloridaASun0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
HoustonAmer0.190.1940.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.196.906.90-0.16-0.16
LouisvilleACC0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
CincinnatiAmer0.180.1868.7568.750.070.07
South CarolinaSEC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1634.4834.48-0.05-0.05
TempleAmer0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
William & MaryCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1534.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
LSUSEC0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
LipscombASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
SMUAmer0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
FloridaSEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1044.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
DrexelCAA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
DavidsonA100.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Washington St.P120.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
HofstraCAA0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
BryantNEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
James MadisonCAA0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
TowsonCAA0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0927.2727.27-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0916.1316.13-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0968.5768.570.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
TroySB0.060.0629.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
NevadaMWC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01