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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:185
Current SOS:190
Current Record:6-17
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:5-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:186



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17209.60.07%
11-18226.51.74%
10-19246.09.25%
9-20264.224.53%
8-21279.833.33%
7-22293.223.70%
6-23306.07.37%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Michigan St. (18.7)B10A82-55L0%0.0
11-20Northeastern (140.7)CAAN60-58L0%0.0
11-21Miami OH (219.2)MACA69-75W100%0.0
11-22Lipscomb (267.6)ASunN65-79L0%0.0
12-1East Carolina (198.1)AmerA74-48L0%0.0
12-12UCF (197.3)AmerA75-61L0%0.0
12-15Eastern Kentucky (202.5)OVCA80-73L0%0.0
12-16Tennessee (112.5)SECA81-62L0%0.0
12-19Florida St. (50.6)ACCN64-59L0%0.0
12-22Hofstra (67.4)CAAA68-54L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee Martin (239.0)OVCH48-57L0%0.0
1-3FIU (242.9)CUSAA76-59L0%0.0
1-7Marshall (126.6)CUSAA90-67L0%0.0
1-9Western Kentucky (179.7)CUSAA86-82L0%0.0
1-14Southern Miss (297.1)CUSAH58-51W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Tech (120.1)CUSAH63-61W100%0.0
1-21UTEP (221.2)CUSAA71-56L0%0.0
1-23UTSA (342.6)CUSAA71-86W100%0.0
1-28Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH66-78L0%0.0
1-30Charlotte (232.8)CUSAH82-77W100%0.0
2-4Middle Tennessee (86.2)CUSAA85-73L0%0.0
2-6UAB (88.7)CUSAA104-67L0%0.0
2-11UTSA (342.6)CUSAH79-73W100%0.0
2-13UTEP (221.2)CUSAH0-043%-1.9
2-18Rice (298.4)CUSAA0-039%-3.1
2-20North Texas (298.8)CUSAA0-040%-2.9
2-27FIU (242.9)CUSAH0-043%-2.0
3-3Middle Tennessee (86.2)CUSAH0-026%-7.0
3-5UAB (88.7)CUSAH0-019%-9.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA26.1626.1428.5728.80-11.21-11.09
FIUCUSA2.794.1836.3640.33-0.76-0.81
UTEPCUSA2.664.1052.1752.460.120.20
UABCUSA2.654.1082.6179.061.732.38
UTSACUSA4.734.1014.2913.92-3.38-2.96
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.644.0966.6766.250.881.33
MarshallCUSA2.682.4947.8349.48-0.12-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA2.632.4642.8644.16-0.38-0.29
Louisiana TechCUSA2.612.4376.1973.041.371.12
Southern MissCUSA2.602.4331.5832.98-0.96-0.83
CharlotteCUSA2.652.4039.1343.73-0.58-0.30
North TexasCUSA0.482.3731.8231.47-0.17-0.88
RiceCUSA0.482.3727.2726.98-0.22-1.09
Old DominionCUSA2.602.3756.5261.950.340.57
NortheasternCAA2.351.8745.8346.82-0.20-0.12
Miami OHMAC2.311.8136.3634.16-0.63-0.57
Tennessee MartinOVC2.261.8147.8348.74-0.10-0.05
East CarolinaAmer2.321.8139.1337.48-0.50-0.45
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.311.8148.0047.58-0.09-0.09
HofstraCAA2.261.8165.2265.590.690.56
UCFAmer2.311.8147.6242.67-0.11-0.27
LipscombASun2.261.7825.0028.00-1.13-0.78
Florida St.ACC2.221.7565.2262.030.680.42
Michigan St.B102.221.7579.1780.941.291.08
TennesseeSEC2.221.7547.8346.40-0.10-0.13
James MadisonCAA0.360.2972.0071.320.160.12
BelmontOVC0.270.2468.0066.640.100.08
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.2168.1865.170.070.06
ElonCAA0.270.2050.0050.070.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.190.1855.0053.670.020.01
MemphisAmer0.200.1858.3359.310.030.03
StetsonASun0.190.1822.7327.39-0.10-0.08
AuburnSEC0.190.1739.1335.45-0.04-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1777.2773.930.120.08
South FloridaAmer0.140.1720.0019.73-0.09-0.10
Murray St.OVC0.140.1547.8350.89-0.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1550.0052.870.000.01
TulaneAmer0.150.1536.0034.84-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.230.1552.1753.440.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.1568.1871.350.030.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1565.2264.340.050.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1460.8758.900.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.180.1421.7422.42-0.10-0.08
William & MaryCAA0.220.1468.1867.110.080.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1424.0024.16-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.100.1236.3636.29-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.100.1222.7324.38-0.05-0.06
ToledoMAC0.100.1260.8762.080.020.03
North FloridaASun0.090.1262.5064.120.020.03
VCUA100.140.1270.8371.050.060.05
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1240.0042.85-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.190.1258.3358.400.030.02
DelawareCAA0.130.1225.0024.93-0.07-0.06
DrexelCAA0.090.1213.0416.42-0.07-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.1225.0025.08-0.05-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.1273.0872.610.020.05
Texas St.SB0.140.1240.0038.88-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.130.1262.5057.730.030.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1239.1341.05-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1286.9680.420.100.07
TempleAmer0.140.1265.2262.370.040.03
TulsaAmer0.140.1266.6764.700.050.03
AkronMAC0.140.1282.6181.140.090.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.1165.2268.600.030.04
Miami FLACC0.130.1182.6177.580.090.06
OhioMAC0.090.1163.6461.470.020.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.0950.0054.180.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0962.5063.450.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0964.0062.070.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.140.0945.4543.87-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.130.0947.8348.57-0.01-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0960.0057.650.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0916.6719.49-0.06-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.0913.0415.26-0.10-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.140.0914.2914.91-0.10-0.06
Stony BrookAE0.140.0982.6183.010.090.06
BinghamtonAE0.090.0924.0026.44-0.05-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0970.8370.130.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0970.8367.980.020.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0940.0040.34-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0945.0049.27-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0914.2915.44-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.140.0979.1775.990.080.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0943.4843.77-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0960.8757.130.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.0950.0048.950.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0952.0048.920.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0972.0071.570.020.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0960.0055.560.010.01
SMUAmer0.090.0986.9682.920.070.06
BuffaloMAC0.090.0956.5257.060.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0945.8344.07-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0943.4850.64-0.010.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.0952.1754.130.010.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0968.0064.090.030.02
FloridaSEC0.130.0866.6766.320.040.03
IowaB100.130.0879.1778.880.080.05
KentuckySEC0.090.0875.0072.610.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0673.9174.640.020.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.0660.8755.980.020.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0631.8236.11-0.03-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.090.0628.5734.11-0.04-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0625.0029.89-0.05-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0650.0049.480.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0625.0026.38-0.02-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0650.0051.280.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0645.8343.78-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.090.0656.0055.640.010.01
TexasB120.090.0666.6762.200.030.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.370.050.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0645.4554.18-0.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0633.3334.95-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0647.6249.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0618.1821.11-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.100.0687.5081.850.070.04
Appalachian St.SB0.090.0625.0028.15-0.05-0.03
CaliforniaP120.050.0666.6764.780.020.02
DavidsonA100.090.0661.9058.170.020.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0675.0071.960.050.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0615.0018.13-0.07-0.04
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.940.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0625.0033.23-0.05-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.30-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0650.0045.770.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0654.5552.530.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0656.0054.080.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.600.010.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0647.6245.02-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.600.020.03
Washington St.P120.050.0634.7831.64-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0631.8232.68-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0629.1726.69-0.04-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0660.8760.240.020.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0640.0043.39-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1752.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.090.0679.1778.100.050.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0052.940.000.00
MarylandB100.090.0687.5083.660.070.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0629.1733.75-0.04-0.02
MichiganB100.090.0670.8366.750.040.02
NebraskaB100.090.0652.0050.760.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
Penn St.B100.040.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0680.0077.910.050.03
RutgersB100.040.0621.7420.34-0.02-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0658.3359.970.010.01
WisconsinB100.040.0662.5057.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0360.8759.830.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.88-0.01-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0340.9138.82-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0342.3144.53-0.01-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0383.3383.710.030.02
DenverSum0.040.0352.0049.300.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.28-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0363.6461.550.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0356.5255.340.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.039.5210.67-0.04-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0352.9452.100.000.00
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0330.0029.13-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0360.8762.470.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0320.0022.25-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0358.3360.710.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0356.0055.450.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0363.6458.760.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.14-0.04-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.040.0372.2274.700.020.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0333.3336.31-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0041.68-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0352.1749.150.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0333.3332.04-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.3864.970.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0361.9065.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0372.7370.410.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0360.8755.310.010.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0345.8341.63-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.75-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.040.0356.0056.510.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0327.2727.80-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
DaytonA100.050.0386.9682.160.030.02
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0375.0071.840.000.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0335.0038.57-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.660.020.01
IUPUISum0.050.0338.4638.50-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0321.7424.60-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0345.4543.23-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.380.030.02
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.930.000.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0372.7367.600.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.90-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.040.0352.0054.860.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0383.3378.460.030.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0354.1753.810.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0386.3684.220.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0324.0025.68-0.02-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.290.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.040.0360.8760.440.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0331.8232.08-0.02-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0356.0054.430.010.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.870.010.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.160.010.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0379.1777.510.030.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
IndianaB100.000.0380.0075.690.000.01
KansasB120.040.0382.6179.200.030.02
LSUSEC0.000.0362.5059.080.000.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0333.3330.28-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.61-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0364.0062.090.010.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0365.3865.510.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.040.0372.0069.130.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0358.3357.250.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0383.3381.280.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0369.5770.090.020.01
TCUB120.050.0345.8339.36-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0375.0075.340.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0330.4329.49-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.140.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00