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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:239.9
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:258
Current Record:6-9
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:1-5
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-10128.50.02%
15-11145.80.35%
14-12170.02.21%
13-13192.98.35%
12-14213.117.04%
11-15233.325.69%
10-16253.324.07%
9-17273.415.26%
8-18290.65.73%
7-19304.51.12%
6-20314.90.15%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (253.6)CAAA64-58L0%0.0
11-20Harvard (84.7)IvyA71-49L0%0.0
11-23Georgia (32.8)SECA74-61L0%0.0
12-3East Carolina (258.0)AmerH72-63W100%0.0
12-13UCF (232.8)AmerA41-54W100%0.0
12-16Stetson (336.0)ASunH79-69W100%0.0
12-20St. Francis NY (169.5)NECA61-56L0%0.0
12-22Eastern Kentucky (166.4)OVCH69-66W100%0.0
12-30Jacksonville (343.0)ASunA50-68W100%0.0
1-4FIU (222.4)CUSAH60-62L0%0.0
1-8UAB (170.0)CUSAA66-57L0%0.0
1-10Middle Tennessee (157.1)CUSAA82-58L0%0.0
1-15Western Kentucky (83.3)CUSAH85-88L0%0.0
1-17Marshall (295.6)CUSAH76-62W100%0.0
1-29Charlotte (152.3)CUSAA86-61L0%0.0
1-31Old Dominion (44.0)CUSAA0-08%-15.6
2-5UTEP (85.8)CUSAH0-026%-6.9
2-7UTSA (234.8)CUSAH0-059%2.5
2-12Louisiana Tech (76.9)CUSAA0-011%-13.5
2-14Southern Miss (305.1)CUSAA0-065%4.2
2-19North Texas (270.1)CUSAH0-070%5.8
2-21Rice (280.6)CUSAH0-066%4.4
2-26Western Kentucky (83.3)CUSAA0-017%-10.4
2-28Marshall (295.6)CUSAA0-044%-1.8
3-5UAB (170.0)CUSAH0-048%-0.5
3-7Middle Tennessee (157.1)CUSAH0-050%0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA26.3426.1442.6241.19-3.89-4.60
UABCUSA3.604.5142.1148.05-0.57-0.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.604.5152.6352.640.190.24
MarshallCUSA3.614.5122.2225.37-2.00-2.22
Western KentuckyCUSA3.604.5164.7164.081.061.27
FIUCUSA3.772.7537.5038.75-0.94-0.62
CharlotteCUSA3.762.7342.1151.10-0.590.06
Old DominionCUSA0.532.6980.0079.430.321.59
Louisiana TechCUSA0.262.6975.0073.320.131.25
Southern MissCUSA0.252.6823.5320.08-0.13-1.60
UTEPCUSA0.262.6365.0068.550.080.98
UTSACUSA0.262.6247.0645.87-0.02-0.22
North TexasCUSA0.082.6235.2933.18-0.02-0.88
RiceCUSA0.082.6225.0027.62-0.04-1.17
StetsonASun3.602.0617.6523.41-2.33-1.10
UCFAmer3.432.0344.4440.75-0.38-0.37
JacksonvilleASun3.431.9921.0521.49-1.98-1.14
East CarolinaAmer3.331.9935.2932.67-0.98-0.69
ElonCAA3.421.9542.1140.56-0.54-0.37
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.331.9252.9460.330.200.40
GeorgiaSEC3.331.9272.2265.291.480.59
HarvardIvy3.331.9264.2965.450.950.59
St. Francis NYNEC3.331.9255.0060.370.330.40
Morehead St.OVC0.170.2338.1045.41-0.04-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.260.2330.0031.92-0.10-0.08
USC UpstateASun0.360.2163.1663.400.100.06
HoustonAmer0.290.2140.0037.05-0.06-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.2123.8125.53-0.14-0.10
BelmontOVC0.180.2065.0063.630.050.06
CincinnatiAmer0.260.2075.0073.790.130.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.270.1763.1667.490.070.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.460.170.004.66-0.46-0.16
North FloridaASun0.260.1755.0060.490.030.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.260.1733.3331.28-0.09-0.06
LouisvilleACC0.280.1785.0078.450.190.10
Murray St.OVC0.270.1780.0081.590.160.11
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1710.0013.32-0.13-0.12
TempleAmer0.180.1766.6763.890.060.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1725.0037.82-0.08-0.04
LSUSEC0.170.1680.0070.880.100.07
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1650.0051.270.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.250.1660.0060.760.050.03
LipscombASun0.080.1438.8941.90-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.180.1436.8440.44-0.05-0.03
MemphisAmer0.180.1365.0061.650.050.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.1361.1164.980.020.04
MississippiSEC0.180.1365.0063.020.050.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.180.1357.8956.380.030.02
FloridaSEC0.250.1355.0055.340.030.01
AkronMAC0.170.1368.4263.700.060.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.260.1341.1847.60-0.05-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.1347.3738.40-0.00-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.080.1150.0053.500.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.110.1141.1841.54-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.090.1026.3226.56-0.04-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1021.0530.43-0.10-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.280.1073.3372.110.130.05
NortheasternCAA0.110.1063.6464.410.030.03
Washington St.P120.000.1045.0036.07-0.00-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.1031.5832.46-0.03-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.180.1016.6725.21-0.12-0.05
SMUAmer0.180.1080.0077.800.110.06
TulaneAmer0.180.1060.0052.490.040.01
BryantNEC0.190.1047.3747.85-0.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.260.1076.4777.080.140.05
MinnesotaB100.180.1057.1454.290.030.01
Stony BrookAE0.180.1061.9066.010.040.03
ConnecticutAmer0.090.1057.8959.140.010.02
HofstraCAA0.170.1063.6468.340.050.04
TulsaAmer0.180.1078.9573.600.100.05
KentuckySEC0.090.10100.0098.410.090.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.1050.0061.990.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.1042.1147.36-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.1026.3229.17-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.180.1059.0958.320.030.02
CreightonBE0.080.1045.4540.60-0.01-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1040.0038.90-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.080.1068.4260.870.030.02
Miami FLACC0.260.1070.0066.140.100.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.170.1027.2731.53-0.08-0.04
Penn St.B100.170.1066.6754.170.060.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1013.6414.75-0.13-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.180.1080.9576.580.110.05
Illinois St.MVC0.080.1060.0060.200.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.160.1045.0049.32-0.02-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.1031.5844.68-0.03-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0738.8936.84-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0750.0049.150.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.220.0747.0648.55-0.01-0.00
PennIvy0.000.0737.5037.02-0.00-0.02
YaleIvy0.000.0766.6766.370.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0723.5328.20-0.05-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0740.0042.36-0.02-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0727.7828.15-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.180.0752.3845.710.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.180.0738.8941.66-0.04-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0721.0533.18-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0776.4771.300.050.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.075.2610.51-0.08-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0742.1139.33-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0763.1658.740.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0765.0068.130.000.02
MercerSC0.090.0750.0052.630.000.00
TroySB0.090.0729.4129.76-0.04-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0780.0072.650.050.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0744.4449.91-0.01-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0750.0052.170.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.170.0742.1134.91-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0714.2917.20-0.00-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0759.0956.200.020.01
SamfordSC0.080.0736.3636.11-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0722.2240.62-0.05-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0742.1140.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0750.0053.390.000.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0720.0022.25-0.05-0.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0723.5325.35-0.05-0.03
TowsonCAA0.170.0742.8639.21-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.0715.7921.14-0.12-0.04
West VirginiaB120.090.0785.0075.810.060.03
Appalachian St.SB0.170.0742.1138.99-0.03-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0731.5830.47-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0631.5833.04-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0652.9453.200.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.0657.1462.480.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.160.0652.3856.200.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0638.1042.96-0.02-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0652.6356.830.000.01
UCLAP120.080.0657.1455.760.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.180.0652.6353.080.010.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0631.5834.50-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.080.0690.0087.310.070.05
GeorgetownBE0.160.0670.0065.410.070.02
Georgia TechACC0.170.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0615.0023.63-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.110.0450.0051.090.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0447.3742.60-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.110.0436.8441.50-0.03-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0450.0052.570.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.110.0438.8939.91-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.110.0455.0055.190.010.00
VermontAE0.110.0450.0055.830.000.00
VirginiaACC0.110.04100.0094.030.110.03
BYUWCC0.090.0466.6767.930.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0410.5319.78-0.07-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0455.5656.530.010.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0455.0053.780.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0438.4633.52-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.090.0436.3638.71-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0437.5037.53-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0457.8958.390.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0463.1661.850.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0447.0652.46-0.010.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0465.0059.750.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0472.2268.790.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0438.8938.68-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0428.5732.24-0.04-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0436.8437.34-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.000.0470.0059.730.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0461.1160.460.020.01
TexasB120.000.0470.0067.330.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0452.9447.000.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0443.7546.22-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0480.0079.220.060.02
WyomingMWC0.090.0478.9573.790.050.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0331.5831.12-0.04-0.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0342.8642.93-0.01-0.00
HartfordAE0.100.0350.0050.620.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0315.0017.47-0.06-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0371.4374.940.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0015.21-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0382.3584.890.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0352.3840.080.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0345.0046.68-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.080.0385.0081.780.060.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0342.1137.96-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.090.0378.9577.960.050.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0365.0059.030.030.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0314.2916.80-0.06-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0331.5830.78-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0320.0027.25-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0350.0043.420.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0316.6721.98-0.00-0.02
AmericanPat0.000.0352.3854.030.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0390.9188.550.000.02
ArmyPat0.080.0368.4263.930.030.01
ColoradoP120.090.0355.0052.300.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0385.0081.560.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0333.3332.70-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0395.2494.650.080.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0358.3365.180.000.01
Kansas St.B120.090.0357.1446.790.01-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0370.0063.500.000.01
La SalleA100.080.0355.0053.260.010.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0311.1116.23-0.06-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0344.4451.67-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0354.5556.920.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0354.5554.980.010.00
NJITind0.080.0352.3854.400.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0340.0048.23-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0316.6717.58-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0355.0056.890.000.00
RutgersB100.080.0345.4536.52-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0370.0063.270.040.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6758.800.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0363.1654.160.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0373.6865.240.000.01
VCUA100.000.0385.0082.110.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0063.140.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0366.6765.800.000.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0376.1969.570.040.01