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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:240.1
Current RPI:299
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:173
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-990.00.06%
17-10103.80.24%
16-11123.30.63%
15-12143.02.10%
14-13162.35.04%
13-14183.69.05%
12-15206.113.54%
11-16228.516.42%
10-17251.317.75%
9-18271.715.02%
8-19288.910.52%
7-20304.15.60%
6-21318.02.85%
5-22327.00.84%
4-23334.10.27%
3-24339.00.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Elon (220.4)CAAA64-58L0%0.0
11-20Harvard (53.1)IvyA71-49L0%0.0
11-23Georgia (78.8)SECA74-61L0%0.0
12-3East Carolina (234.2)AmerH0-062%3.7
12-13UCF (187.3)AmerA0-028%-6.9
12-16Stetson (305.6)ASunH0-077%8.8
12-20St. Francis NY (241.7)NECA0-039%-3.4
12-22Eastern Kentucky (143.5)OVCH0-046%-1.1
12-30Jacksonville (326.7)ASunA0-067%5.2
1-4FIU (202.5)CUSAH0-060%3.0
1-8UAB (180.6)CUSAA0-029%-6.8
1-10Middle Tennessee (172.3)CUSAA0-028%-7.0
1-15Western Kentucky (195.0)CUSAH0-054%1.3
1-17Marshall (166.9)CUSAH0-049%-0.4
1-24FIU (202.5)CUSAA0-036%-4.2
1-29Charlotte (70.3)CUSAA0-011%-14.6
1-31Old Dominion (72.2)CUSAA0-012%-14.2
2-5UTEP (87.5)CUSAH0-031%-5.8
2-7UTSA (298.7)CUSAH0-074%7.7
2-12Louisiana Tech (78.8)CUSAA0-012%-13.9
2-14Southern Miss (155.8)CUSAA0-027%-7.3
2-19North Texas (218.3)CUSAH0-062%3.7
2-21Rice (260.2)CUSAH0-071%6.8
2-26Western Kentucky (195.0)CUSAA0-031%-5.9
2-28Marshall (166.9)CUSAA0-026%-7.6
3-5UAB (180.6)CUSAH0-051%0.4
3-7Middle Tennessee (172.3)CUSAH0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA31.9426.210.0038.96-31.94-5.79
FIUCUSA0.004.5250.0042.460.00-0.68
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.004.4266.6748.710.00-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.004.4266.6748.840.00-0.10
UABCUSA0.004.4233.3342.96-0.00-0.62
Western KentuckyCUSA0.004.4125.0039.45-0.00-0.93
CharlotteCUSA2.082.6760.0067.570.420.94
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.6480.0070.370.001.08
Old DominionCUSA0.002.6480.0074.100.001.27
Southern MissCUSA0.002.6366.6749.910.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.002.57100.0070.950.001.08
UTSACUSA0.002.5733.3328.89-0.00-1.09
North TexasCUSA0.002.5766.6739.990.00-0.51
RiceCUSA0.002.5733.3330.08-0.00-1.02
StetsonASun0.002.010.0033.03-0.00-0.68
UCFAmer0.001.95100.0048.040.00-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.001.920.0023.89-0.00-1.00
East CarolinaAmer0.001.9233.3333.68-0.00-0.63
ElonCAA16.671.8833.3340.97-5.56-0.34
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.001.85100.0061.110.000.41
GeorgiaSEC16.671.8566.6754.245.560.16
HarvardIvy16.671.8550.0073.250.000.86
St. Francis NYNEC0.001.850.0049.90-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2320.0026.30-0.00-0.11
USC UpstateASun0.000.2366.6754.040.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.2375.0054.260.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2320.0053.43-0.000.02
HoustonAmer2.780.2066.6760.350.930.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.200.0021.34-0.00-0.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.20100.0079.080.000.12
BelmontOVC0.000.2075.0071.930.000.09
CincinnatiAmer0.000.20100.0059.140.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.19100.0079.500.000.11
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1725.0031.38-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1620.0043.52-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.1633.3368.48-0.000.06
LSUSEC0.000.1660.0056.190.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1660.0049.930.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.160.0046.09-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1640.0050.32-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.000.130.0042.35-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1325.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1333.3340.07-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1375.0056.430.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.130.0025.13-0.00-0.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1350.0067.350.000.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1350.0050.520.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1366.6747.140.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0052.730.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1333.3350.48-0.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.1360.0066.000.000.04
AuburnSEC0.000.1350.0035.490.00-0.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.130.0044.90-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1125.0039.42-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.1075.0064.500.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1040.0067.55-0.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.10100.0072.230.000.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0032.36-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1020.0030.80-0.00-0.04
DrexelCAA0.000.1020.0035.41-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.1050.0055.150.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1075.0070.310.000.04
HofstraCAA0.000.1060.0066.760.000.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.1075.0047.770.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.10100.0069.870.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.1040.0066.55-0.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1066.6738.430.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1075.0059.380.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0089.550.000.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1020.0050.95-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1040.0033.07-0.00-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.100.0038.65-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE2.080.1050.0066.080.000.03
DavidsonA100.000.1050.0053.610.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0065.470.000.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.100.0030.42-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0055.110.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1040.0052.47-0.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0933.3340.46-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0035.37-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.09100.0081.280.000.06
Penn St.B100.000.0983.3348.030.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.000.0720.0038.78-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0733.3336.17-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.25-0.00-0.02
PennIvy0.000.070.0025.91-0.00-0.03
YaleIvy0.000.0775.0065.600.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0020.18-0.00-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0766.6744.670.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0030.140.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.0733.3329.16-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0733.3353.13-0.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0740.0039.52-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6761.780.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0028.11-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0780.0058.990.000.01
TroySB2.080.070.0042.64-2.08-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0062.250.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.070.0019.97-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0018.08-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0064.410.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0766.6759.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0760.0037.460.00-0.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0780.0058.000.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.01-0.00-0.03
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0084.260.000.05
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0067.050.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0081.020.000.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0633.3346.11-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0047.350.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.72-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0640.0058.90-0.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0031.72-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0061.980.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0640.0040.15-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.32-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0625.0033.31-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0633.3337.42-0.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0680.0051.980.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0625.0043.34-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0625.0047.03-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0633.3333.44-0.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0625.0044.79-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.060.0043.63-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.280.000.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0666.6756.780.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0025.530.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0057.240.000.01
Georgia TechACC2.080.06100.0049.352.08-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0027.32-0.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0460.0054.250.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0440.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0425.0055.20-0.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0440.0047.31-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat2.780.04100.0066.732.780.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.040.0025.45-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0425.0037.60-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0480.0060.610.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0466.6744.530.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.04100.0080.120.000.02
VermontAE0.000.0433.3358.10-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.04100.0075.610.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6769.270.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0065.600.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.54-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0366.6757.980.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.82-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0340.0031.23-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0041.110.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.030.0051.20-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0060.980.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.030.0032.89-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.72-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.03100.0057.870.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6741.550.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3349.98-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0375.0055.300.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.03100.0067.780.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.560.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0360.0059.230.000.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0084.950.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0025.33-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0366.6769.740.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0375.0073.890.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0031.98-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0030.040.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0017.79-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC2.080.030.0039.00-2.08-0.01
NorthwesternB102.080.03100.0043.952.08-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.43-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0375.0045.460.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.380.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0059.500.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0085.190.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0057.210.000.00
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0029.87-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0350.0053.310.000.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0028.08-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0024.400.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.620.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
AmericanPat0.000.0360.0057.160.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0320.0022.51-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0325.0051.72-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.30-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0022.61-0.00-0.02
RichmondA100.000.0366.6766.740.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0380.0067.890.000.01
VCUA100.000.0380.0073.820.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01