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Through games of Feb 4, 2012.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:179.8
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:124
Current Record:8-14
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Probability of Auto Bid:3.20%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:20



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14129.90.75%
13-15145.48.59%
12-16163.827.33%
11-17182.334.51%
10-18199.421.90%
9-19214.76.13%
8-20229.60.78%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Portland (215.5)WCCN70-65L0%0.0
11-13Washington (69.1)P12A77-71L0%0.0
11-14Georgia St. (125.1)CAAN77-84W100%0.0
11-16American (150.9)PatA62-56L0%0.0
11-19George Mason (94.6)CAAH80-75W100%0.0
11-22Hofstra (239.2)CAAA60-62W100%0.0
11-26South Florida (96.1)BEA68-55L0%0.0
11-30Kansas (8.8)B12A77-54L0%0.0
12-13Mississippi St. (41.7)SECA75-68L0%0.0
12-17Miami FL (64.4)ACCN93-90L0%0.0
12-22Harvard (36.7)IvyA63-51L0%0.0
12-28Siena (226.0)MAACH60-67L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)SBA67-55L0%0.0
1-5Louisiana Monroe (323.3)SBH58-30W100%0.0
1-7Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)SBA40-38L0%0.0
1-9Arkansas St. (228.9)SBA50-58W100%0.0
1-14Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBH54-67L0%0.0
1-19Troy (274.9)SBA67-88W100%0.0
1-21Florida International (212.8)SBA64-66W100%0.0
1-26Western Kentucky (240.2)SBH67-66W100%0.0
2-2South Alabama (196.0)SBA65-56L0%0.0
2-4Florida International (212.8)SBH56-76L0%0.0
2-9Denver (91.3)SBH0-037%-3.5
2-11North Texas (203.3)SBH0-062%3.2
2-16Western Kentucky (240.2)SBA0-054%1.0
2-18Middle Tennessee (49.6)SBA0-010%-13.8
2-23South Alabama (196.0)SBH0-070%5.7
2-25Troy (274.9)SBH0-079%8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticSB26.2126.2042.0042.58-4.19-3.89
Florida InternationalSB5.044.3431.5836.13-1.86-1.20
South AlabamaSB2.784.3050.0051.860.000.16
TroySB2.784.3030.0031.83-1.11-1.56
Middle TennesseeSB2.804.2982.6184.011.832.92
Western KentuckySB2.744.2936.3635.31-0.75-1.26
Louisiana MonroeSB2.772.459.099.32-2.27-2.00
North TexasSB0.502.4550.0050.470.000.02
Arkansas St.SB2.522.4339.1339.65-0.55-0.50
Arkansas Little RockSB2.572.4340.9142.26-0.47-0.38
DenverSB0.502.4370.8372.570.211.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB2.732.4352.1753.130.120.15
Mississippi St.SEC2.431.9977.2771.411.330.85
Georgia St.CAA2.571.9769.5772.101.010.87
George MasonCAA2.471.9479.1774.921.440.97
HofstraCAA2.371.9033.3336.57-0.79-0.51
WashingtonP122.371.8568.1865.380.860.57
PortlandWCC2.371.8518.1818.80-1.51-1.15
KansasB122.321.8277.2777.671.271.00
SienaMAAC2.271.8142.8643.60-0.32-0.23
South FloridaBE2.321.8152.3846.830.11-0.12
AmericanPat2.271.7963.6462.500.620.45
HarvardIvy2.271.7990.0087.471.821.34
Miami FLACC2.271.7963.1658.590.600.31
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.340.3380.0078.060.200.18
Louisiana St.SEC0.150.2259.0957.280.030.03
MississippiSEC0.250.2163.6456.710.070.03
UABCUSA0.160.2040.9139.82-0.03-0.04
BelmontASun0.150.1969.5773.280.060.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1959.0957.760.030.03
DelawareCAA0.180.1747.8350.65-0.010.00
James MadisonCAA0.230.1740.0040.18-0.05-0.03
NC WilmingtonCAA0.190.1739.1336.10-0.04-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.110.1672.7371.710.050.07
Texas TechB120.100.1631.8225.98-0.04-0.08
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1533.3335.97-0.05-0.04
UCLAP120.150.1554.5556.790.010.02
Old DominionCAA0.190.1560.0058.290.040.02
DrexelCAA0.190.1579.1778.100.110.08
NortheasternCAA0.140.1547.8348.56-0.01-0.00
TowsonCAA0.230.144.005.26-0.21-0.13
East Tennessee St.ASun0.110.1452.3852.860.010.01
Southern UtahSum0.110.1445.4544.30-0.01-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1333.3333.82-0.03-0.04
Southern MississippiCUSA0.110.1385.7182.180.080.08
Georgia SouthernSC0.150.1340.0041.30-0.03-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1347.6248.82-0.01-0.00
MarylandACC0.170.1359.0950.820.030.00
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1355.0054.800.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1262.5062.490.040.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1256.5253.100.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.1255.0054.480.020.01
BrownIvy0.150.1227.2723.80-0.07-0.06
IonaMAAC0.150.1279.1780.100.090.07
LouisvilleBE0.100.1278.2672.660.050.05
KentuckySEC0.150.1295.8392.570.140.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.124.359.66-0.13-0.10
Seattleind0.200.1223.5333.28-0.10-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.140.1268.0069.070.050.05
Texas A&MB120.150.1252.3846.150.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.1212.5013.44-0.07-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.1018.1821.13-0.03-0.06
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.1057.1460.750.010.02
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1080.7780.750.100.06
Virginia TechACC0.110.1056.5255.200.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0925.0023.75-0.07-0.05
San FranciscoWCC0.150.0956.5253.770.020.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0990.9187.740.040.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0927.7829.58-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.150.0918.1815.01-0.10-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0930.4326.44-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.100.0936.8441.45-0.03-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.100.0940.9142.05-0.02-0.01
IUPUISum0.100.0934.7835.50-0.03-0.03
NavyPat0.100.099.5213.19-0.08-0.07
NC GreensboroSC0.100.0934.7833.46-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0947.3752.87-0.000.01
TulsaCUSA0.100.0960.8759.050.020.02
TexasB120.050.0960.8761.370.010.02
St. LouisA100.150.0977.2777.670.080.05
Washington St.P120.100.0950.0048.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.100.0934.7833.43-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.100.09100.0094.550.100.08
VermontAE0.160.0960.0062.490.030.02
AkronMAC0.100.0968.1867.910.040.03
BucknellPat0.090.0973.9175.000.050.05
ColgatePat0.140.0930.4329.50-0.06-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0969.5765.870.040.03
VillanovaBE0.100.0945.4546.08-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.100.0986.3683.090.070.06
GeorgetownBE0.150.0980.9577.380.090.05
LamarSlnd0.090.0961.9067.230.020.03
West VirginiaBE0.110.0965.2265.170.030.03
ArizonaP120.100.0966.6768.550.030.03
Oregon St.P120.090.0963.6463.160.030.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.100.0925.0025.13-0.05-0.04
AuburnSEC0.100.0956.5248.810.01-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.140.0920.8320.60-0.08-0.05
BaylorB120.100.0990.9183.850.080.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0717.6527.10-0.04-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0716.6723.02-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0730.0034.15-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.0730.0037.30-0.04-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.0717.3924.41-0.07-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.0772.2271.970.050.03
DaytonA100.110.0760.8760.960.020.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0747.0650.75-0.010.00
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0675.0076.000.020.03
GonzagaWCC0.100.0681.8281.490.060.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0656.5254.220.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0631.8233.83-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0628.5726.30-0.04-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0642.8641.13-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.100.0642.8643.45-0.01-0.01
NevadaWAC0.100.0680.9576.420.060.03
OhioMAC0.100.0681.8277.200.060.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.100.0655.5658.010.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0640.9141.72-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0617.3919.81-0.00-0.04
Central FloridaCUSA0.100.0671.4366.600.040.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.0614.2917.17-0.08-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0654.5554.300.000.01
FordhamA100.110.0640.9134.50-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0647.6248.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.110.0639.1342.12-0.02-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0643.4842.95-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0673.9174.910.020.03
Loyola MDMAAC0.100.0677.2773.450.060.03
MassachusettsA100.110.0673.9168.580.050.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.100.0626.0928.60-0.05-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0637.5041.54-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0686.9683.160.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0670.8364.420.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.000.0654.5556.840.000.01
RiderMAAC0.100.0637.5038.52-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0634.7832.06-0.02-0.02
St. Peter'sMAAC0.100.0621.7424.58-0.06-0.03
YaleIvy0.050.0672.2263.190.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0645.4544.66-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0675.0074.610.020.03
ConnecticutBE0.110.0668.1863.990.040.02
Houston BaptistGWC0.100.0625.0028.52-0.05-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0671.4369.050.040.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0641.1842.61-0.02-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0654.1757.200.010.01
RutgersBE0.110.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.100.0660.0059.060.020.01
AlbanyAE0.100.0660.0060.420.020.01
Boston UniversityAE0.100.0648.0051.88-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.090.0659.0956.350.020.01
HowardMEAC0.100.0618.1822.22-0.06-0.03
MonmouthNEC0.100.0628.0028.91-0.04-0.03
Utah St.WAC0.050.0650.0052.930.000.00
VirginiaACC0.100.0681.8276.800.070.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.43-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.100.0679.1775.980.060.03
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.530.020.02
PittsburghBE0.000.0660.8758.160.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0656.5250.270.010.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0681.8280.430.060.04
AlabamaSEC0.050.0668.1869.100.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0669.5765.150.020.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0673.9168.430.050.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0672.7368.280.020.02
MissouriB120.050.0691.3087.180.040.04
OklahomaB120.100.0659.0954.700.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0645.4540.70-0.00-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.000.0315.0015.73-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0319.0525.52-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0326.3229.79-0.00-0.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0376.1975.940.000.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0370.0073.280.020.01
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.050.0382.6181.440.030.02
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0335.0039.29-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0365.0066.700.010.01
CharlotteA100.060.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0350.0048.360.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0350.0048.900.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0334.7832.08-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0336.3638.48-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0362.5062.060.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0320.0019.96-0.03-0.02
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.050.0313.6416.35-0.04-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.060.0369.5771.510.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0376.1972.910.030.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0361.9063.520.010.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0345.8346.68-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0313.6416.14-0.03-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0330.0031.54-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0342.8645.80-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0365.2260.580.020.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.050.0356.5257.150.010.00
RichmondA100.050.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.030.020.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0338.1037.86-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0321.7422.76-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0360.8759.760.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0331.8242.13-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.039.5211.44-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0347.8343.66-0.00-0.00
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0356.5257.720.010.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0376.1970.730.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0321.0522.46-0.03-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.87-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.000.0369.5765.470.000.01
ColoradoP120.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0350.0042.830.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0319.0522.37-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.21-0.02-0.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.650.020.01
Penn St.B100.050.0341.6738.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.26-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.740.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0310.0014.93-0.04-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0373.9175.490.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0347.6247.18-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.28-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0369.5768.290.020.01
SyracuseBE0.000.0395.8392.010.000.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.050.0354.5557.690.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.02-0.05-0.03
College of CharlestonSC0.050.0358.3359.980.010.01
DavidsonSC0.050.0376.1976.760.030.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.8349.03-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.730.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0382.6177.630.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0345.4541.20-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.350.020.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
North DakotaGWC0.050.0333.3341.31-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0386.9685.460.040.02
RadfordBSth0.050.038.7013.10-0.04-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.9139.56-0.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0356.5255.950.010.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0382.6184.570.030.02