Florida Atlantic

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	218.0
Current RPI:	218
Expected SOS:	200
Current SOS:	200
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	9-12
Expected Conf Record:	9-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-7
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	221
Expected OOC SOS:	240

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	218.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	A	80-56	L	0%
11-13	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	A	78-58	L	0%
11-17	Coppin St. (313.0)	MEAC	N	64-61	W	100%
11-18	Elon (174.0)	SC	A	62-59	L	0%
11-24	American (278.0)	Pat	H	58-55	W	100%
11-29	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	66-77	L	0%
12-1	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	72-65	W	100%
12-6	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	A	78-88	W	100%
12-15	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	81-56	L	0%
12-18	Stetson (220.0)	ASun	H	68-69	L	0%
12-21	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	88-52	L	0%
12-27	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	54-61	W	100%
12-29	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	65-64	L	0%
1-1	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	61-57	W	100%
1-3	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	75-70	W	100%
1-10	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	62-52	L	0%
1-12	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	62-65	W	100%
1-17	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	80-59	W	100%
1-19	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	59-61	L	0%
1-24	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	65-62	L	0%
1-26	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	A	63-38	L	0%
1-31	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	76-71	W	100%
2-2	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	56-73	L	0%
2-7	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	84-65	L	0%
2-9	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	72-71	L	0%
2-14	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	84-78	W	100%
2-16	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	58-57	L	0%
2-21	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	66-57	L	0%
2-23	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	73-59	W	100%
3-2	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	77-60	W	100%
3-8	Troy (279.0)	SB	N	79-81	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida Atlantic	SB	26.48	26.48	42.40	42.40	-4.03	-4.03
Troy	SB	5.87	5.87	36.67	36.67	-1.56	-1.56
Western Kentucky	SB	4.45	4.45	59.38	59.38	0.83	0.83
Florida International	SB	4.42	4.42	56.67	56.67	0.59	0.59
Arkansas St.	SB	4.36	4.36	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.32	4.32	83.87	83.87	2.93	2.93
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.32	4.32	36.67	36.67	-1.15	-1.15
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.27	4.27	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
North Texas	SB	4.26	4.26	32.14	32.14	-1.52	-1.52
South Alabama	SB	4.25	4.25	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.25	4.25	12.00	12.00	-3.23	-3.23
Stetson	ASun	3.28	3.28	46.43	46.43	-0.23	-0.23
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.71	1.71	29.03	29.03	-0.72	-0.72
Dayton	A10	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Indiana	B10	1.66	1.66	81.25	81.25	1.04	1.04
North Carolina	ACC	1.66	1.66	68.75	68.75	0.62	0.62
Coppin St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	23.33	23.33	-0.87	-0.87
American	Pat	1.61	1.61	34.48	34.48	-0.50	-0.50
Elon	SC	1.61	1.61	62.07	62.07	0.39	0.39
Hofstra	CAA	1.61	1.61	20.00	20.00	-0.97	-0.97
UAB	CUSA	0.29	0.29	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.24	0.24	80.65	80.65	0.15	0.15
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.21	0.21	68.75	68.75	0.08	0.08
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Jacksonville	ASun	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.18	0.18	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.16	0.16	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.15	0.15	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	A10	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.00	10.00	-0.09	-0.09
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.11	0.11	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Central Florida	CUSA	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
IUPUI	Sum	0.10	0.10	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Monmouth	NEC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	7.14	7.14	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.05	23.33	23.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00