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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:270.0
Current RPI:270
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:156
Current Record:8-22
Expected Record:8-22
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:156



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-22270.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH57-59L0%0.0
11-15Duke (9.0)ACCA97-64L0%0.0
11-17Boston College (207.0)ACCA82-79L0%0.0
11-22Detroit (230.0)HorzA77-44L0%0.0
11-23Stony Brook (165.0)AEN61-67L0%0.0
11-24Toledo (38.0)MACN94-74L0%0.0
12-3UCF (220.0)AmerH75-64W100%0.0
12-7Jacksonville (282.0)ASunH83-63W100%0.0
12-12DePaul (154.0)BEA81-70L0%0.0
12-14Maryland (78.0)ACCA66-62L0%0.0
12-17Stetson (333.0)ASunA64-62L0%0.0
12-22Elon (162.0)SCH62-67L0%0.0
1-9Louisiana Tech (62.0)CUSAA84-64L0%0.0
1-11Rice (299.0)CUSAA68-73W100%0.0
1-16East Carolina (216.0)CUSAH78-67W100%0.0
1-18Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH60-65L0%0.0
1-21Harvard (46.0)IvyH68-53W100%0.0
1-25FIU (202.0)CUSAA66-57L0%0.0
1-30Charlotte (151.0)CUSAA62-53L0%0.0
2-1Marshall (276.0)CUSAA57-65W100%0.0
2-6Middle Tennessee (64.0)CUSAH63-67L0%0.0
2-8UAB (152.0)CUSAH82-71W100%0.0
2-13UTEP (103.0)CUSAA69-71W100%0.0
2-15UTSA (306.0)CUSAA66-56L0%0.0
2-20Tulsa (73.0)CUSAH52-71L0%0.0
2-22North Texas (195.0)CUSAH76-78L0%0.0
2-26Tulane (223.0)CUSAA72-64L0%0.0
3-2Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAH49-60L0%0.0
3-6FIU (202.0)CUSAH70-74L0%0.0
3-11Marshall (276.0)CUSAN59-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA25.9425.9425.7125.71-12.60-12.60
MarshallCUSA3.803.8027.5927.59-1.70-1.70
FIUCUSA3.773.7742.3142.31-0.58-0.58
CharlotteCUSA2.252.2553.3353.330.150.15
TulsaCUSA2.242.2462.5062.500.560.56
Old DominionCUSA2.222.2246.8846.88-0.14-0.14
Louisiana TechCUSA2.222.2278.1278.121.251.25
East CarolinaCUSA2.212.2146.4346.43-0.16-0.16
Southern MissCUSA2.212.2180.0080.001.331.33
UTEPCUSA2.202.2070.0070.000.880.88
TulaneCUSA2.192.1948.3948.39-0.07-0.07
RiceCUSA2.192.1918.5218.52-1.38-1.38
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.192.1970.0070.000.880.88
North TexasCUSA2.192.1942.8642.86-0.31-0.31
UABCUSA2.162.1657.1457.140.310.31
UTSACUSA2.162.1619.2319.23-1.33-1.33
StetsonASun1.811.8120.0020.00-1.09-1.09
DukeACC1.781.7875.7675.760.920.92
ToledoMAC1.781.7880.6580.651.091.09
Boston CollegeACC1.771.7720.0020.00-1.06-1.06
JacksonvilleASun1.751.7537.0437.04-0.45-0.45
Stony BrookAE1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
DetroitHorz1.741.7434.4834.48-0.54-0.54
MarylandACC1.741.7450.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy1.721.7289.2989.291.351.35
UCFAmer1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
ElonSC1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
DePaulBE1.691.6934.3834.38-0.53-0.53
St. Francis NYNEC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
Florida St.ACC0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
East Tennessee St.ASun0.190.1953.1253.120.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1713.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Florida A&MMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1776.4776.470.090.09
GeorgetownBE0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.160.1661.7661.760.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.160.1684.3884.380.110.11
LouisvilleAmer0.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
MercerASun0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
North FloridaASun0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DavidsonSC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
AkronMAC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Miami FLACC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
ClemsonACC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
VirginiaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
HoustonAmer0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1141.1841.18-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
VermontAE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
PittsburghACC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.090.0970.3770.370.040.04
SamfordSC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RutgersAmer0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.080.083.703.70-0.08-0.08
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
BrownIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
PennIvy0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NJITind0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.050.0559.2659.260.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01