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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:237.1
Current RPI:217
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:138
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:270
Expected OOC SOS:154



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10103.60.11%
16-11127.30.40%
15-12145.71.63%
14-13166.84.55%
13-14187.28.99%
12-15208.615.06%
11-16229.218.61%
10-17249.419.62%
9-18267.215.35%
8-19283.69.64%
7-20298.13.97%
6-21310.31.71%
5-22319.30.31%
4-23321.70.03%
3-24340.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Texas St. (256.5)SBN57-61L0%0.0
11-13SIU Edwardsville (212.0)OVCN77-68L0%0.0
11-14Hawaii (274.7)BWA64-63L0%0.0
11-22South Florida (264.5)AmerH78-62W100%0.0
11-29Tennessee Martin (167.9)OVCA82-81L0%0.0
12-3Hofstra (221.4)CAAH80-88L0%0.0
12-6Ohio St. (55.9)B10A77-79W100%0.0
12-16Miami FL (42.1)ACCA0-03%-22.5
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (87.6)ASunH0-033%-5.2
12-31Western Kentucky (249.8)CUSAH0-067%5.2
1-2Marshall (120.3)CUSAH0-046%-1.2
1-7FIU (266.6)CUSAH0-064%4.5
1-12UTSA (303.1)CUSAA0-054%1.3
1-14UTEP (289.2)CUSAA0-050%-0.0
1-19UAB (137.2)CUSAH0-037%-4.1
1-21Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAH0-027%-7.4
1-26FIU (266.6)CUSAA0-044%-1.8
2-2Charlotte (185.0)CUSAA0-034%-4.9
2-4Old Dominion (102.4)CUSAA0-018%-11.0
2-9North Texas (294.9)CUSAH0-077%8.8
2-11Rice (96.6)CUSAH0-033%-5.2
2-16Louisiana Tech (95.6)CUSAA0-013%-13.6
2-18Southern Miss (332.1)CUSAA0-075%8.1
2-23UTEP (289.2)CUSAH0-070%6.2
2-25UTSA (303.1)CUSAH0-074%7.6
3-2UAB (137.2)CUSAA0-019%-10.4
3-4Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAA0-013%-13.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA28.3026.1830.3038.82-11.15-5.85
FIUCUSA0.004.5014.2934.26-0.00-1.42
UTSACUSA0.604.4425.0029.45-0.30-1.83
UTEPCUSA0.004.4120.0035.10-0.00-1.31
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.004.4087.5075.400.002.24
UABCUSA0.004.4050.0058.960.000.79
Louisiana TechCUSA0.002.6657.1472.000.001.17
MarshallCUSA0.402.6462.5053.530.100.19
Southern MissCUSA0.002.6220.0017.07-0.00-1.72
Western KentuckyCUSA0.002.6137.5035.09-0.00-0.78
RiceCUSA0.002.5675.0070.710.001.06
North TexasCUSA0.002.5633.3331.65-0.00-0.94
Old DominionCUSA0.002.5562.5065.960.000.82
CharlotteCUSA0.002.5562.5050.070.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC8.251.9842.8640.65-1.18-0.37
Texas St.SB8.101.9840.0042.12-1.62-0.31
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.001.9557.1471.340.000.83
HawaiiBW8.181.9233.3348.86-2.73-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC7.141.9271.4353.893.060.15
Ohio St.B107.141.8887.5064.085.360.53
HofstraCAA7.141.8550.0041.930.00-0.30
Miami FLACC0.001.8577.7865.700.000.58
South FloridaAmer7.141.8566.6734.382.38-0.58
South AlabamaSB0.000.2371.4357.210.000.03
TroySB1.020.2042.8636.07-0.15-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.000.1950.0060.950.000.04
ElonCAA0.510.1962.5054.660.130.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.1742.8643.55-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.1725.0026.46-0.00-0.08
North FloridaASun0.000.1612.5034.49-0.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1633.3336.67-0.00-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.000.1612.5030.17-0.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.000.1657.1464.500.000.05
ToledoMAC0.000.1537.5047.57-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1442.8641.13-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1362.5067.590.000.05
TulaneAmer0.000.1312.5023.82-0.00-0.07
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1362.5060.090.000.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1375.0069.680.000.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1342.8650.33-0.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1377.7855.180.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1357.1449.640.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1342.8638.35-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.960.130.0023.90-0.96-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1312.5033.18-0.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1387.5061.660.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.13100.0078.180.000.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1357.1457.780.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.1385.7169.920.000.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1350.0050.980.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1350.0061.350.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1375.0056.270.000.02
George WashingtonA100.510.1255.5642.150.06-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1283.3377.290.000.07
Long Beach St.BW0.000.110.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1075.0047.520.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.1044.4441.55-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1012.5037.11-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.510.1025.0030.02-0.26-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.1016.6730.09-0.00-0.04
FloridaSEC0.000.1077.7872.930.000.05
BinghamtonAE0.000.1050.0042.750.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.450.1075.0066.120.220.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1071.4363.080.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.100.0034.54-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1020.0042.14-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0013.32-0.00-0.07
Florida St.ACC0.000.1088.8967.470.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1070.0050.010.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.1025.0023.62-0.00-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.600.1060.0062.420.120.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1050.0037.700.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.400.1014.2943.08-0.28-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1016.6738.87-0.00-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1042.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0950.0045.920.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0950.0041.460.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0987.5082.440.000.06
Michigan St.B100.000.0960.0058.780.000.02
RutgersB100.000.0987.5050.250.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0942.8644.90-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0937.5038.08-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0950.0041.700.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.450.0975.0047.990.22-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0975.0048.980.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0055.44-0.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0987.5059.030.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0942.8653.80-0.000.01
VCUA100.000.0975.0072.930.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0933.3346.06-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0957.1444.830.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0089.590.000.07
Western CarolinaSC0.400.0928.5723.02-0.17-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0728.5733.56-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0725.0043.29-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.660.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0744.4453.29-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0031.31-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.71-0.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0711.1132.47-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0744.4451.58-0.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0067.820.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0771.4347.690.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.510.0787.5081.910.380.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0725.0038.98-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0716.6729.83-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0762.5058.130.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0711.1120.27-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0716.6735.90-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0733.3350.05-0.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.450.0657.1449.420.06-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.74-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.450.0620.0022.88-0.27-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0612.5031.01-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0657.1443.930.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.820.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7175.800.000.03
IndianaB100.450.0687.5074.510.330.03
KentuckySEC0.450.0687.5082.220.330.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0612.5033.31-0.00-0.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.280.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.400.0642.8643.78-0.06-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0650.0045.130.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0050.980.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0644.4443.25-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.88-0.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0655.5646.770.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.500.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.400.0662.5074.160.100.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.500.000.03
VirginiaACC0.400.0688.8978.430.310.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0688.8966.920.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0420.0060.00-0.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0460.0069.260.000.01
Seton HallBE0.510.0475.0054.480.260.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.070.000.02
La SalleA100.000.0357.1456.540.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.450.0342.8658.24-0.060.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.450.0333.3351.57-0.150.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.400.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.600.030.0017.92-0.60-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.75-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.15-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.29-0.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0387.5064.760.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.450.0337.5044.42-0.11-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0328.5731.07-0.19-0.01
DuquesneA100.450.0340.0039.19-0.09-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.510.030.0022.47-0.51-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0325.0031.76-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0375.0075.180.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.78-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0042.78-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.92-0.000.00
RiderMAAC0.510.0357.1450.790.070.00
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.650.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0350.0066.380.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.400.0337.5025.74-0.10-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0375.0074.590.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.400.030.0017.16-0.40-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0375.0071.330.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.400.0322.2232.01-0.22-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.66-0.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6770.400.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.400.0344.4438.15-0.04-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.400.0350.0046.820.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.400.0375.0070.350.200.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0344.4436.20-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.600.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0362.5062.080.000.01
VermontAE0.400.0362.5071.400.100.01
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.400.0316.6739.99-0.26-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
IowaB100.000.0344.4438.41-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0362.5044.840.00-0.00
NavyPat0.400.0333.3338.56-0.13-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.170.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.400.0377.7859.940.220.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.650.000.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0362.5071.850.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5042.780.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.140.000.00