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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Florida Atlantic

Conference:CUSA
Expected RPI:300.0
Current RPI:300
Expected SOS:199
Current SOS:199
Current Record:7-24
Expected Record:7-24
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:302
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-24300.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Michigan St. (12.0)B10A82-55L0%0.0
11-20Northeastern (109.0)CAAN60-58L0%0.0
11-21Miami OH (195.0)MACA69-75W100%0.0
11-22Lipscomb (269.0)ASunN65-79L0%0.0
12-1East Carolina (217.0)AmerA74-48L0%0.0
12-12UCF (219.0)AmerA75-61L0%0.0
12-15Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA80-73L0%0.0
12-16Tennessee (143.0)SECA81-62L0%0.0
12-19Florida St. (82.0)ACCN64-59L0%0.0
12-22Hofstra (54.0)CAAA68-54L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH48-57L0%0.0
1-3FIU (270.0)CUSAA76-59L0%0.0
1-7Marshall (128.0)CUSAA90-67L0%0.0
1-9Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA86-82L0%0.0
1-14Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH58-51W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Tech (122.0)CUSAH63-61W100%0.0
1-21UTEP (215.0)CUSAA71-56L0%0.0
1-23UTSA (347.0)CUSAA71-86W100%0.0
1-28Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH66-78L0%0.0
1-30Charlotte (234.0)CUSAH82-77W100%0.0
2-4Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAA85-73L0%0.0
2-6UAB (88.0)CUSAA104-67L0%0.0
2-11UTSA (347.0)CUSAH79-73W100%0.0
2-13UTEP (215.0)CUSAH82-89L0%0.0
2-18Rice (279.0)CUSAA90-85L0%0.0
2-20North Texas (295.0)CUSAA70-62L0%0.0
2-27FIU (270.0)CUSAH63-71L0%0.0
3-3Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH59-76L0%0.0
3-5UAB (88.0)CUSAH70-73L0%0.0
3-8UTSA (347.0)CUSAN82-58W100%0.0
3-9Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAN72-46L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida AtlanticCUSA26.2126.2122.9622.96-14.18-14.18
UTSACUSA5.445.4414.8114.81-3.83-3.83
FIUCUSA4.004.0032.1432.14-1.43-1.43
UTEPCUSA3.963.9653.3353.330.260.26
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.943.9468.9768.971.501.50
Old DominionCUSA3.933.9360.6160.610.830.83
UABCUSA3.873.8779.3179.312.272.27
MarshallCUSA2.462.4650.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA2.462.4648.3948.39-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA2.372.3772.4172.411.061.06
CharlotteCUSA2.362.3643.7543.75-0.30-0.30
Southern MissCUSA2.312.3126.9226.92-1.07-1.07
North TexasCUSA2.282.2831.0331.03-0.87-0.87
RiceCUSA2.282.2831.0331.03-0.87-0.87
NortheasternCAA1.741.7451.6151.610.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC1.691.6953.3353.330.110.11
East CarolinaAmer1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Miami OHMAC1.691.6938.7138.71-0.38-0.38
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.17-0.17
HofstraCAA1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
UCFAmer1.691.6937.9337.93-0.41-0.41
LipscombASun1.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Florida St.ACC1.641.6458.0658.060.260.26
Michigan St.B101.641.6484.8584.851.141.14
TennesseeSEC1.641.6442.4242.42-0.25-0.25
James MadisonCAA0.250.2564.5264.520.070.07
BelmontOVC0.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.200.2076.6776.670.110.11
StetsonASun0.180.1826.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1864.2964.290.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.180.1824.2424.24-0.09-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
ElonCAA0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
TulaneAmer0.160.1635.2935.29-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
ClemsonACC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
VCUA100.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
BuffaloMAC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
CreightonBE0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
TempleAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TulsaAmer0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
AkronMAC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
HoustonAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0811.1111.11-0.06-0.06
BinghamtonAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
IowaB100.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
MarylandB100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0322.8622.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.020.0279.3179.310.010.01
The CitadelSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01