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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:157.6
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:220
Current SOS:189
Current Record:13-10
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:9-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:248
Expected OOC SOS:218



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10113.91.11%
18-11131.015.53%
17-12149.836.35%
16-13166.931.86%
15-14184.212.84%
14-15203.22.14%
13-16221.90.16%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Dakota (191.9)SumN77-69W100%0.0
11-14Cal St. Northridge (276.8)BWN72-67L0%0.0
11-15Northern Illinois (141.2)MACA65-59L0%0.0
11-20Kentucky (17.5)SECA78-63L0%0.0
11-28George Mason (187.8)A10A66-39L0%0.0
12-4Georgia St. (146.4)SBH46-59L0%0.0
12-8Xavier (10.2)BEA90-55L0%0.0
12-13Miami OH (216.8)MACA72-67L0%0.0
12-17Charleston Southern (275.4)BSthH71-65W100%0.0
12-20Bowling Green (198.6)MACH83-47W100%0.0
12-22Murray St. (187.7)OVCH65-49W100%0.0
1-2Milwaukee (166.6)HorzA82-84W100%0.0
1-4Green Bay (161.2)HorzA76-68L0%0.0
1-9Northern Kentucky (246.7)HorzA46-60W100%0.0
1-14Cleveland St. (273.3)HorzH70-53W100%0.0
1-16Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzH81-45W100%0.0
1-18Detroit (208.9)HorzH77-76W100%0.0
1-22Valparaiso (37.2)HorzH73-62W100%0.0
1-24Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzH80-66W100%0.0
1-29Oakland (110.6)HorzA89-63L0%0.0
1-31Detroit (208.9)HorzA75-68L0%0.0
2-4Milwaukee (166.6)HorzH84-83W100%0.0
2-6Green Bay (161.2)HorzH79-60W100%0.0
2-11Illinois Chicago (347.1)HorzA0-086%11.8
2-13Valparaiso (37.2)HorzA0-08%-15.1
2-15Oakland (110.6)HorzH0-042%-2.1
2-20Northern Kentucky (246.7)HorzH0-079%8.9
2-25Youngstown St. (258.7)HorzA0-070%5.8
2-27Cleveland St. (273.3)HorzA0-067%4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.4426.4257.6559.674.045.11
MilwaukeeHorz4.994.4865.0064.051.501.26
Cleveland St.Horz2.974.4522.7323.19-1.62-2.38
Youngstown St.Horz2.974.4531.8233.65-1.08-1.45
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.874.445.267.24-2.56-3.80
DetroitHorz4.984.4447.3745.52-0.26-0.40
Northern KentuckyHorz3.004.4435.0037.03-0.90-1.15
OaklandHorz2.874.4366.6767.240.961.53
Green BayHorz4.904.4255.0056.460.490.57
ValparaisoHorz2.824.4285.7185.802.013.16
Bowling GreenMAC2.472.0052.3847.480.12-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC2.371.9157.8955.980.370.23
South DakotaSum2.381.8543.4842.70-0.31-0.27
Miami OHMAC2.371.8431.8230.79-0.86-0.71
XavierBE2.271.8286.9681.191.681.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.271.7925.0025.90-1.14-0.86
Murray St.OVC2.271.7847.6251.58-0.110.06
Charleston SouthernBSth2.171.7225.0027.62-1.09-0.77
George MasonA102.171.7230.4331.46-0.85-0.64
Georgia St.SB2.171.7255.5654.400.240.15
KentuckySEC2.171.7273.9171.701.040.75
ToledoMAC0.600.5160.8762.040.130.12
AkronMAC0.350.3382.6181.140.230.21
Kent St.MAC0.250.2765.2260.590.070.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.300.2440.0043.44-0.06-0.03
OhioMAC0.210.2463.6461.420.060.05
Central MichiganMAC0.300.2147.6249.35-0.01-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.150.2160.8757.190.030.03
BelmontOVC0.200.2166.6766.540.070.07
Chicago St.WAC0.250.214.357.72-0.22-0.17
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1940.9143.54-0.04-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.1817.3920.65-0.16-0.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1613.6415.77-0.11-0.11
UCFAmer0.210.1650.0044.860.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.200.1650.0052.370.000.01
MichiganB100.140.1569.5766.220.060.05
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1531.8232.69-0.05-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.100.1556.5256.990.010.02
IPFWSum0.190.1570.8368.550.080.05
Rhode IslandA100.140.1558.3357.170.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1254.1750.940.010.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1243.4842.66-0.01-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.190.1239.1341.10-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1227.7829.16-0.04-0.05
DePaulBE0.140.1233.3334.01-0.05-0.04
IUPUISum0.150.1240.0039.81-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.150.1256.5259.860.020.02
DenverSum0.140.1254.1751.790.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1247.6252.05-0.010.00
Notre DameACC0.150.1270.8367.790.060.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.1277.2776.870.050.06
WisconsinB100.200.1260.8755.830.040.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1259.0955.300.030.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.1228.0030.73-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0954.5550.110.010.00
DrakeMVC0.100.0920.8323.21-0.06-0.05
IllinoisB100.100.0945.8344.13-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.0959.0959.420.030.02
RiderMAAC0.100.0940.0042.11-0.02-0.01
StanfordP120.150.0950.0046.540.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.150.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.0945.4546.24-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.0926.0927.79-0.07-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.100.0947.3749.93-0.01-0.00
MissouriSEC0.140.0934.7830.33-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.150.0925.0029.30-0.07-0.04
MississippiSEC0.150.0962.5058.930.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0972.0070.540.040.04
DuquesneA100.140.0960.8756.430.030.01
DaytonA100.140.0986.9682.300.100.06
AlabamaSEC0.090.0859.0953.250.020.01
VirginiaACC0.090.0883.3378.470.060.05
CampbellBSth0.050.0728.5729.65-0.02-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0760.0060.080.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0745.4547.57-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0755.0057.460.010.01
LibertyBSth0.100.0734.7836.50-0.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0725.0026.86-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0765.2266.200.030.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0765.0063.410.030.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0626.0929.17-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0690.4886.910.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0642.8639.22-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.54-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0640.0038.98-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0657.8961.740.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0642.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.0671.4369.410.050.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.65-0.010.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.12-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.100.0672.7367.630.050.02
South AlabamaSB0.060.0633.3334.22-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0647.8350.19-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.110.0636.8437.57-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.060.0623.8126.71-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.0668.1871.320.040.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.090.030.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.0656.5257.280.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.55-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0635.0032.27-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0684.2181.660.000.04
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0640.0036.76-0.01-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.650.020.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.0645.8341.65-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0642.8650.39-0.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.100.0650.0053.100.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.100.0622.7324.97-0.05-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0668.1866.650.040.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0652.0050.250.000.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0660.0055.500.020.01
USCP120.100.0678.2673.050.050.03
AmericanPat0.050.0630.4331.91-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.0652.1751.510.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0652.1751.910.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0660.8760.720.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.700.040.04
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0639.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0656.5256.320.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0624.0024.55-0.02-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0663.6462.150.010.01
OregonP120.050.0682.6179.220.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0661.9056.430.010.01
PacificWCC0.100.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.050.0680.0077.930.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0630.4331.20-0.04-0.02
UCLAP120.100.0656.5253.270.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0672.0071.540.040.03
ButlerBE0.050.0669.5767.150.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0664.0062.090.010.01
MarquetteBE0.090.0662.5056.050.020.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0675.0070.990.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0673.9169.970.020.02
St. John'sBE0.090.0625.0023.40-0.05-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0687.5086.910.030.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0656.0052.830.010.00
AuburnSEC0.090.0639.1335.43-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.040.0635.0034.80-0.01-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0640.0040.31-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0620.8324.09-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0652.3850.420.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0660.0057.940.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0666.6766.320.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0678.2674.410.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.260.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0680.0081.600.030.04
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.470.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0636.3633.54-0.01-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0650.0048.130.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.970.020.03
WashingtonP120.040.0665.2261.100.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.300.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.720.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0336.8442.89-0.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0375.0076.250.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.580.020.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0354.5554.950.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.33-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0356.5262.790.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5832.01-0.02-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0366.6762.650.020.01
UABCUSA0.060.0382.6179.370.040.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.240.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.70-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0331.8229.12-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.700.020.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.080.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.300.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.43-0.02-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0342.1145.67-0.01-0.00
UMBCAE0.050.0324.0026.33-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.73-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0350.0055.190.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0322.7327.22-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.200.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.170.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.46-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0376.0076.310.020.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.690.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0354.1755.600.000.00
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.80-0.01-0.00
DukeACC0.050.0375.0071.800.020.01
FordhamA100.050.0355.0052.190.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
KansasB120.050.0382.6179.190.030.02
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.46-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.070.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0342.8642.05-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0340.9139.33-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.020.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0343.4843.78-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.280.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.020.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.63-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0382.6178.910.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0386.3679.110.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.68-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0371.4368.940.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2677.860.000.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.770.010.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01