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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:264.0
Current RPI:264
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:192
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:3-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:124
Expected OOC SOS:137



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20264.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Belmont (105.0)OVCH73-70W100%0.0
11-19Bowling Green (109.0)MACA70-55L0%0.0
11-22Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthA79-86W100%0.0
11-27Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWN62-67L0%0.0
11-28FIU (217.0)CUSAN61-59L0%0.0
11-29USC Upstate (208.0)ASunA51-56W100%0.0
12-2Evansville (118.0)MVCA86-78L0%0.0
12-11Belmont (105.0)OVCA71-79W100%0.0
12-14Miami OH (229.0)MACH68-59W100%0.0
12-18Western Carolina (220.0)SCA56-69W100%0.0
12-23George Mason (221.0)A10H60-68L0%0.0
12-27Ohio St. (41.0)B10A100-55L0%0.0
1-2Detroit (205.0)HorzH70-57W100%0.0
1-5Green Bay (54.0)HorzA79-55L0%0.0
1-8Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzA61-70W100%0.0
1-14Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzH50-55L0%0.0
1-17Valparaiso (50.0)HorzH56-66L0%0.0
1-20Milwaukee (206.0)HorzA67-41L0%0.0
1-26Detroit (205.0)HorzA53-64W100%0.0
1-28Oakland (155.0)HorzA84-76L0%0.0
2-2Green Bay (54.0)HorzH58-71L0%0.0
2-7Cleveland St. (127.0)HorzA88-72L0%0.0
2-12Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH75-79L0%0.0
2-15Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
2-18Oakland (155.0)HorzH67-76L0%0.0
2-21Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA55-48L0%0.0
2-26Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH58-61L0%0.0
2-28Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA61-46L0%0.0
3-3Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA60-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.4526.4534.6934.69-8.10-8.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz6.106.1017.2417.24-4.00-4.00
Green BayHorz4.484.4871.4371.431.921.92
DetroitHorz4.464.4644.8344.83-0.46-0.46
Cleveland St.Horz4.454.4550.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz4.424.4282.1482.142.842.84
OaklandHorz4.424.4242.8642.86-0.63-0.63
Youngstown St.Horz4.364.3625.9325.93-2.10-2.10
MilwaukeeHorz4.304.3038.4638.46-0.99-0.99
BelmontOVC3.483.4872.4172.411.561.56
Bowling GreenMAC1.891.8965.5265.520.590.59
EvansvilleMVC1.871.8758.6258.620.320.32
Miami OHMAC1.841.8440.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Western CarolinaSC1.811.8144.8344.83-0.19-0.19
FIUCUSA1.781.7843.3343.33-0.24-0.24
USC UpstateASun1.781.7865.5265.520.550.55
Cal St. FullertonBW1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
Charleston SouthernBSth1.751.7561.5461.540.400.40
Ohio St.B101.751.7568.7568.750.660.66
George MasonA101.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
Eastern MichiganMAC0.260.2656.6756.670.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.250.2564.5264.520.070.07
Morehead St.OVC0.250.2546.8846.88-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.230.2360.6160.610.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
DrakeMVC0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Georgia St.SB0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
Murray St.OVC0.200.2083.3383.330.130.13
OhioMAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
LongwoodBSth0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1717.2417.24-0.11-0.11
Ball St.MAC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
VCUA100.170.1774.2974.290.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1734.4834.48-0.05-0.05
LipscombASun0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
UCFAmer0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
WisconsinB100.150.1591.1891.180.120.12
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.140.1437.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
BradleyMVC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1423.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
NorthwesternB100.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1271.4371.430.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
LouisvilleACC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1152.9452.940.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
MichiganB100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0914.2914.29-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
IonaMAAC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.090.0990.9190.910.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
YaleIvy0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0641.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0327.2727.27-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01