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Through games of Feb 27, 2015.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:240.9
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:149
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:3-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.34%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-7
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:131



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18232.251.62%
9-19250.248.38%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Belmont (143.5)OVCH73-70W100%0.0
11-19Bowling Green (88.3)MACA70-55L0%0.0
11-22Charleston Southern (150.7)BSthA79-86W100%0.0
11-27Cal St. Fullerton (311.5)BWN62-67L0%0.0
11-28FIU (240.6)CUSAN61-59L0%0.0
11-29USC Upstate (216.7)ASunA51-56W100%0.0
12-2Evansville (101.8)MVCA86-78L0%0.0
12-11Belmont (143.5)OVCA71-79W100%0.0
12-14Miami OH (227.2)MACH68-59W100%0.0
12-18Western Carolina (247.0)SCA56-69W100%0.0
12-23George Mason (217.9)A10H60-68L0%0.0
12-27Ohio St. (35.3)B10A100-55L0%0.0
1-2Detroit (195.8)HorzH70-57W100%0.0
1-5Green Bay (63.6)HorzA79-55L0%0.0
1-8Youngstown St. (284.2)HorzA61-70W100%0.0
1-14Cleveland St. (128.5)HorzH50-55L0%0.0
1-17Valparaiso (64.6)HorzH56-66L0%0.0
1-20Milwaukee (219.3)HorzA67-41L0%0.0
1-26Detroit (195.8)HorzA53-64W100%0.0
1-28Oakland (130.2)HorzA84-76L0%0.0
2-2Green Bay (63.6)HorzH58-71L0%0.0
2-7Cleveland St. (128.5)HorzA88-72L0%0.0
2-12Illinois Chicago (310.8)HorzH75-79L0%0.0
2-15Youngstown St. (284.2)HorzH69-74L0%0.0
2-18Oakland (130.2)HorzH67-76L0%0.0
2-21Valparaiso (64.6)HorzA55-48L0%0.0
2-26Milwaukee (219.3)HorzH58-61L0%0.0
2-28Illinois Chicago (310.8)HorzA0-052%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.4626.4536.1737.39-7.32-6.67
DetroitHorz4.624.4944.4444.44-0.51-0.50
OaklandHorz4.544.4946.1545.14-0.35-0.44
Cleveland St.Horz4.614.4850.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz4.544.4872.0072.362.002.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.794.4614.8114.81-1.96-3.14
MilwaukeeHorz4.504.4536.0036.31-1.26-1.22
ValparaisoHorz4.574.4580.7780.772.812.74
Youngstown St.Horz4.504.4528.0029.07-1.98-1.86
BelmontOVC3.743.6068.0069.001.351.37
Bowling GreenMAC2.021.9770.8369.000.840.75
EvansvilleMVC2.021.9462.9662.260.520.48
Miami OHMAC1.961.9142.3141.95-0.30-0.31
Western CarolinaSC1.961.8842.3142.97-0.30-0.26
Cal St. FullertonBW1.921.8524.0023.17-1.00-0.99
FIUCUSA1.921.8540.0038.83-0.38-0.41
USC UpstateASun1.921.8568.0067.640.690.65
Charleston SouthernBSth1.891.8262.5062.170.470.44
Ohio St.B101.891.8270.3770.590.770.75
George MasonA101.851.7924.0024.26-0.96-0.92
Morehead St.OVC0.300.2842.8644.45-0.04-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.210.2566.6764.480.070.07
ToledoMAC0.270.2564.2963.780.080.07
Georgia St.SB0.240.2266.6767.490.080.08
DrakeMVC0.240.2228.5728.58-0.10-0.09
OhioMAC0.210.2233.3332.58-0.07-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.240.2254.1753.530.020.02
LipscombASun0.210.1936.0037.68-0.06-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.200.1961.5462.370.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.200.1935.7134.86-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.210.1937.0438.77-0.05-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.210.1915.3815.96-0.14-0.13
VCUA100.170.1975.0074.480.090.09
LongwoodBSth0.180.1621.4322.47-0.10-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1669.2369.920.070.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1628.5728.28-0.08-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.170.1685.1984.500.120.11
Ball St.MAC0.170.1624.0025.19-0.09-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1660.0058.420.030.03
WisconsinB100.140.1689.2987.430.110.12
UCFAmer0.130.1642.3142.56-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.140.1577.7874.890.080.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1338.4638.56-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1353.8553.030.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.140.1346.4345.83-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.1310.7110.56-0.05-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1337.0436.29-0.04-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1325.9326.41-0.07-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1378.2676.740.080.07
DePaulBE0.100.1341.3840.25-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1360.7160.580.020.03
MarshallCUSA0.140.1330.7730.30-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1351.8551.810.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.140.1350.0050.670.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1351.8552.250.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1361.5460.520.020.03
UC IrvineBW0.100.1360.0059.760.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1325.0024.45-0.05-0.06
MarylandB100.130.1282.1481.480.090.08
LouisvilleACC0.130.1278.5776.950.080.07
AkronMAC0.110.1260.7160.850.020.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1266.6767.410.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1240.0040.28-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1257.6956.860.020.02
BradleyMVC0.100.1224.1424.87-0.05-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1255.5656.450.010.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1231.0332.37-0.04-0.04
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1289.2988.690.100.10
NorthwesternB100.100.1250.0048.140.00-0.00
MichiganB100.130.1250.0050.000.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.110.1015.3815.97-0.08-0.07
WoffordSC0.110.1078.5778.860.060.06
CampbellBSth0.110.1025.9326.73-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.070.1073.0872.070.030.04
StetsonASun0.110.1023.0822.37-0.06-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1038.4639.98-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0919.2322.27-0.06-0.05
IonaMAAC0.100.0980.0079.580.060.06
IUPUISum0.100.0934.4835.30-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0939.2940.71-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.100.0948.0049.57-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.100.0925.9328.09-0.05-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.0960.0059.190.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0993.1090.930.090.08
Rhode IslandA100.100.0972.0070.730.040.04
Michigan St.B100.100.0967.8665.880.040.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0765.3865.380.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0753.8553.120.010.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0723.0822.51-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.070.0762.9663.070.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0740.0041.11-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0722.2221.87-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0759.2660.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0640.7439.81-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.063.705.03-0.07-0.06
ArkansasSEC0.070.0682.1478.230.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0644.4443.01-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0631.0334.48-0.03-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.0640.7439.44-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0622.2222.17-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.070.0671.4370.890.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.070.0667.8667.600.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0642.8642.65-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0638.4638.59-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0624.1424.67-0.04-0.03
FurmanSC0.070.0623.0822.71-0.04-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0652.0053.970.000.01
MaineAE0.070.0610.7110.50-0.05-0.05
MercerSC0.070.0650.0050.620.000.00
Miami FLACC0.070.0664.2963.100.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0625.9326.67-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.070.0656.0055.800.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0661.5461.360.020.01
PortlandWCC0.070.0651.8552.050.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0651.7252.280.000.00
SamfordSC0.070.0637.9337.78-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0624.0025.09-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0670.3769.480.030.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0632.0032.30-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0696.3094.650.060.06
VMISC0.070.0634.6235.81-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.070.0689.2987.910.050.05
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.5754.190.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0645.8345.37-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0621.4322.23-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.070.0655.5653.670.010.00
DavidsonA100.070.0676.0075.770.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0625.0026.57-0.04-0.03
George WashingtonA100.040.0664.2963.500.010.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0651.8551.670.000.00
HawaiiBW0.040.0660.7160.790.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0646.4346.69-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0674.0773.060.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0640.7444.50-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0655.1756.100.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0633.3332.83-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0663.3363.510.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0677.7878.480.040.04
OregonP120.060.0671.4369.280.030.02
PittsburghACC0.070.0664.2962.960.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0657.1458.580.010.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0637.0436.55-0.01-0.02
SMUAmer0.030.0681.4880.510.020.04
South AlabamaSB0.060.0625.9327.35-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.040.0651.8553.170.000.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0679.1777.280.040.03
UC RiversideBW0.070.0648.0046.53-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0652.0052.980.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0669.2368.770.010.02
MinnesotaB100.070.0657.1456.730.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0665.5264.540.020.02
IowaB100.070.0664.2964.530.020.02
Penn St.B100.030.0653.5750.650.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0667.8664.710.010.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.034.004.82-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0382.1481.330.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0351.7250.700.000.00
MississippiSEC0.040.0367.8666.100.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0360.7161.360.010.01
WinthropBSth0.040.0352.0053.550.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.040.0342.8642.05-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0342.3141.61-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0360.7158.880.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0359.2657.470.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.0330.4332.31-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.5656.260.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0342.8645.65-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.040.0326.6726.81-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0319.2320.46-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.040.0346.1546.98-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.040.0336.0034.75-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0332.0032.35-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0342.3141.78-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0373.9170.390.020.01
HartfordAE0.040.0348.1547.54-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.040.0353.5753.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.040.0342.8642.49-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0375.0076.180.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0353.5753.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0357.1456.550.010.00
NevadaMWC0.040.0324.0025.41-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0348.0045.30-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.040.0370.3769.820.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.040.0355.5656.610.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.040.0344.0045.65-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.040.0333.3332.59-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0366.6764.490.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0344.4442.95-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.040.030.000.45-0.04-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.040.0337.0436.49-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.040.0345.8346.11-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0324.0022.68-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.040.0353.8555.840.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.040.0352.0053.140.000.00
UCLAP120.040.0358.6260.540.010.01
USCP120.040.0335.7135.30-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.040.0370.3772.260.010.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0345.8346.23-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.040.0378.5775.030.020.02
ElonCAA0.030.0339.2939.48-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0328.0029.37-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0335.7134.80-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0344.8345.47-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0360.7161.250.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.7441.17-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0346.4345.05-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0367.8667.610.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0334.4833.29-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0344.8345.59-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01