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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:173.0
Current RPI:173
Expected SOS:252
Current SOS:252
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:273
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-14173.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Georgetown (69.0)BEA88-70L0%0.0
11-16DePaul (154.0)BEA81-72L0%0.0
11-22Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndN59-75W100%0.0
11-23South Alabama (280.0)SBA74-70L0%0.0
11-27Alcorn St. (314.0)SWACH73-55W100%0.0
11-30Western Carolina (221.0)SCH85-77W100%0.0
12-2Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA74-69L0%0.0
12-5North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA62-59L0%0.0
12-7VMI (211.0)BSthA94-74L0%0.0
12-15Miami OH (161.0)MACA59-56L0%0.0
12-19Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH70-43W100%0.0
12-21UMKC (248.0)WACH61-49W100%0.0
12-29Bowling Green (194.0)MACH46-43W100%0.0
1-2Oakland (181.0)HorzH76-64W100%0.0
1-4Detroit (230.0)HorzA58-53L0%0.0
1-10Valparaiso (184.0)HorzA45-62W100%0.0
1-12UIC (315.0)HorzH58-53W100%0.0
1-17Green Bay (58.0)HorzH69-79L0%0.0
1-19Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzA46-49W100%0.0
1-21Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH73-57W100%0.0
1-25Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA68-67L0%0.0
1-30Milwaukee (131.0)HorzA68-64L0%0.0
2-1Green Bay (58.0)HorzA62-55L0%0.0
2-5Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzH77-67W100%0.0
2-8Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH68-72L0%0.0
2-16Oakland (181.0)HorzA71-72W100%0.0
2-21Detroit (230.0)HorzH65-61W100%0.0
2-25Valparaiso (184.0)HorzH67-58W100%0.0
3-1UIC (315.0)HorzA61-68W100%0.0
3-7Oakland (181.0)HorzN73-57W100%0.0
3-8Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzN63-68W100%0.0
3-11Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH63-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.5626.5658.4658.464.494.49
MilwaukeeHorz5.755.7560.0060.001.151.15
OaklandHorz5.585.5839.2939.29-1.20-1.20
Cleveland St.Horz5.575.5766.6766.671.861.86
ValparaisoHorz4.134.1353.5753.570.300.30
DetroitHorz4.134.1335.7135.71-1.18-1.18
Youngstown St.Horz4.114.1140.7440.74-0.76-0.76
UICHorz4.094.0914.8114.81-2.88-2.88
Green BayHorz4.074.0776.0076.002.122.12
DePaulBE1.741.7434.3834.38-0.54-0.54
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
UMKCWAC1.711.7135.7135.71-0.49-0.49
Bowling GreenMAC1.691.6936.6736.67-0.45-0.45
South AlabamaSB1.641.6425.9325.93-0.79-0.79
Western CarolinaSC1.641.6453.3353.330.110.11
Miami OHMAC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
GeorgetownBE1.631.6353.3353.330.110.11
Morehead St.OVC1.621.6256.6756.670.220.22
Houston BaptistSlnd1.611.6115.3815.38-1.12-1.12
Alcorn St.SWAC1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
VMIBSth1.561.5653.8553.850.120.12
Eastern MichiganMAC0.290.2956.2556.250.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.290.2948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.260.2681.2581.250.160.16
OhioMAC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
AkronMAC0.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.210.2161.7661.760.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
CreightonBE0.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
James MadisonCAA0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1616.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
WisconsinB100.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
St. John'sBE0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
ElonSC0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
DavidsonSC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.060.06
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1013.7913.79-0.08-0.08
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.070.07
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
Saint LouisA100.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Michigan St.B100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
UCLAP120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
Seton HallBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
NortheasternCAA0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MassachusettsA100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0546.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
OregonP120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0393.1093.100.020.02
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02