Wright St.

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	216.3
Current RPI:	217
Expected SOS:	153
Current SOS:	163
Current Record:	10-14
Expected Record:	12-18
Current Conf Record:	6-7
Expected Conf Record:	8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	222
Expected OOC SOS:	135

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-14	154.5	0.06%
15-15	169.5	2.03%
14-16	187.3	10.60%
13-17	204.1	26.16%
12-18	219.8	33.89%
11-19	235.7	21.88%
10-20	250.7	5.37%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	73-42	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Jackson St. (308.4)	SWAC	H	56-39	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Florida (14.9)	SEC	N	78-65	L	0%	0.0
11-23	North Florida (183.0)	ASun	A	69-52	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Charlotte (140.3)	A10	H	66-70	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	H	43-45	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	H	63-62	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	55-34	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Miami OH (210.4)	MAC	A	49-51	W	100%	0.0
12-14	Cincinnati (89.8)	BE	H	58-78	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	H	54-82	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	80-78	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Central Michigan (271.4)	MAC	H	60-42	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	A	48-64	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	A	70-74	W	100%	0.0
1-6	Butler (143.2)	Horz	H	62-63	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	H	73-55	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	A	58-38	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	A	57-56	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	A	69-53	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Illinois Chicago (290.5)	Horz	H	69-63	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Loyola Chicago (310.1)	Horz	H	47-41	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	64-53	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Valparaiso (102.8)	Horz	A	63-54	L	0%	0.0
2-10	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	0-0		54%	1.2
2-12	Wisconsin Milwaukee (127.3)	Horz	H	0-0		37%	-3.8
2-15	Detroit (181.7)	Horz	H	0-0		45%	-1.5
2-18	Missouri Kansas City (240.4)	Sum	A	0-0		47%	-0.9
2-23	Youngstown St. (163.1)	Horz	A	0-0		28%	-6.4
2-25	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	A	0-0		8%	-15.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wright St.	Horz	26.53	26.40	39.62	38.73	-5.51	-5.95
Valparaiso	Horz	4.89	4.30	66.67	64.62	1.63	1.26
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	2.93	4.30	31.58	36.70	-1.08	-1.14
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.83	4.30	33.33	32.46	-1.61	-1.51
Butler	Horz	4.85	4.28	45.45	47.29	-0.44	-0.23
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.81	4.28	80.95	79.34	1.74	2.51
Detroit	Horz	3.04	4.27	45.45	46.91	-0.28	-0.26
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	2.94	4.27	54.55	55.95	0.27	0.51
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.78	4.27	21.05	22.93	-2.77	-2.31
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.85	4.27	52.63	52.76	0.15	0.24
Ohio St.	B10	2.36	1.84	86.36	84.97	1.72	1.29
Central Michigan	MAC	2.28	1.81	30.00	35.43	-0.91	-0.53
Miami OH	MAC	2.22	1.80	31.58	35.41	-0.82	-0.53
Ohio	MAC	2.19	1.75	80.95	76.41	1.35	0.93
Florida	SEC	2.22	1.75	81.82	76.89	1.41	0.94
North Florida	ASun	2.22	1.75	43.48	44.84	-0.29	-0.18
Jackson St.	SWAC	2.22	1.75	20.00	26.43	-1.33	-0.82
Idaho	WAC	2.14	1.73	50.00	52.97	0.00	0.10
Cincinnati	BE	2.14	1.70	68.18	64.32	0.78	0.49
Charlotte	A10	2.13	1.70	47.62	47.64	-0.10	-0.08
Air Force	MWC	2.08	1.67	44.44	39.85	-0.23	-0.34
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.00	1.67	34.78	34.55	-0.00	-0.52
Akron	MAC	0.38	0.38	68.18	67.91	0.14	0.13
Toledo	MAC	0.40	0.35	38.10	40.81	-0.10	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.34	0.29	5.26	7.30	-0.30	-0.25
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.27	40.91	38.38	-0.05	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.28	0.26	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.24	0.23	40.91	42.96	-0.04	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.21	68.42	66.45	0.06	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.20	75.00	73.97	0.07	0.10
Kent St.	MAC	0.20	0.20	71.43	69.05	0.08	0.08
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.17	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.09
IUPUI	Sum	0.14	0.17	34.78	35.50	-0.04	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.24	0.17	55.00	57.41	0.02	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.23	0.17	65.22	63.74	0.07	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.15	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.24	0.15	45.45	44.02	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.15	0.15	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.19	0.14	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.14	0.14	48.00	50.21	-0.01	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	30.00	37.30	-0.06	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.14	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.57	65.87	0.06	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.13	76.19	70.73	0.06	0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.12	33.33	34.47	-0.03	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.16	0.12	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.12	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.12	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.10	0.12	52.63	48.41	0.01	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.20	0.12	4.76	9.95	-0.18	-0.09
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.15	0.12	17.39	24.41	-0.10	-0.06
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.11	34.78	32.08	-0.03	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.11	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.11	31.82	42.13	-0.03	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.11	72.73	64.43	0.07	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.11	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	0.11	8.70	11.67	-0.11	-0.09
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.02
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.11	78.26	72.66	0.08	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.18	0.11	75.00	75.78	0.09	0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.09	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.09	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.09	63.64	63.16	0.04	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.09	41.67	38.67	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.00	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.00	-0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.09	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.09	69.57	68.90	0.04	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.09	81.82	81.49	0.09	0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.09	72.73	68.28	0.06	0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.09	69.57	73.28	0.05	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	62.50	61.50	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.14	0.08	66.67	68.55	0.05	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.08	78.26	72.34	0.05	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.08	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	62.65	0.03	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.08	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.08	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.05
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.08	60.00	59.06	0.01	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.08	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.13	0.08	52.38	57.86	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.08	52.38	46.68	0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.08	17.39	22.00	-0.06	-0.05
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.08	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.08	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.08	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.13	0.08	31.82	31.31	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.14	0.08	40.91	39.56	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.08	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.02	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.06	82.61	81.44	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.04	0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.06	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.06	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.06	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.03
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.06	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.10	0.06	39.13	44.52	-0.02	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.10	0.06	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.10	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.06	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	27.27	26.95	-0.02	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.06	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.06	19.05	24.61	-0.06	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	47.62	47.18	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.25	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.00	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.06	40.00	41.30	-0.02	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.00	0.06	40.00	40.18	-0.00	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.00	0.06	59.09	57.76	0.00	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.06	69.57	71.51	0.04	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.00	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.00	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.00	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.00	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.00	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.10	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.03	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.06	8.70	13.10	-0.08	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.06	48.00	51.88	-0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.06	27.27	35.02	-0.04	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.00	0.06	79.17	78.10	0.00	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.04	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	38.77	-0.03	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.06	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.04	0.06	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.06	69.57	68.29	0.03	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.04	0.05	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.05	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.05	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.05	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.05
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	46.08	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.03	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.03	40.91	44.03	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.03	70.00	73.28	0.02	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	45.00	41.76	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.03	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.44	-0.04	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.61	0.02	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.17	-0.04	-0.02
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.43	0.02	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.82	0.02	0.01
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	43.93	-0.01	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.86	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.03	90.91	87.74	0.04	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.26	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.00	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.00	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.04	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.04	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.02	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.03	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.03	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.48	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.03	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.00	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.00	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.82	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.19	0.02	0.01