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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:127.6
Current RPI:5
Expected SOS:189
Current SOS:2
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:62
Expected OOC SOS:96



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-435.00.02%
23-538.30.23%
22-644.70.84%
21-754.62.36%
20-866.95.41%
19-981.09.02%
18-1096.814.05%
17-11113.816.51%
16-12132.117.05%
15-13151.514.32%
14-14172.49.90%
13-15192.15.64%
12-16213.32.86%
11-17233.91.26%
10-18253.10.37%
9-19280.60.10%
8-20292.60.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Belmont (73.0)OVCH73-70W100%0.0
11-19Bowling Green (101.8)MACA70-55L0%0.0
11-22Charleston Southern (168.3)BSthA79-86W100%0.0
11-27Cal St. Fullerton (272.2)BWN0-075%8.0
11-28FIU (207.5)CUSAN0-069%6.0
11-29USC Upstate (247.6)ASunA0-062%3.7
12-2Evansville (102.1)MVCA0-032%-5.5
12-11Belmont (73.0)OVCA0-024%-8.3
12-14Miami OH (237.8)MACH0-084%11.8
12-18Western Carolina (219.4)SCA0-056%1.9
12-23George Mason (227.3)A10H0-082%11.2
12-27Ohio St. (38.8)B10A0-011%-14.5
1-2Detroit (139.0)HorzH0-060%3.1
1-5Green Bay (105.3)HorzA0-027%-7.3
1-8Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzA0-062%3.6
1-14Cleveland St. (166.2)HorzH0-066%4.8
1-17Valparaiso (174.9)HorzH0-067%5.2
1-20Milwaukee (267.7)HorzA0-058%2.3
1-26Detroit (139.0)HorzA0-037%-4.1
1-28Oakland (245.0)HorzA0-056%1.7
2-2Green Bay (105.3)HorzH0-050%-0.1
2-7Cleveland St. (166.2)HorzA0-042%-2.4
2-12Illinois Chicago (270.5)HorzH0-081%10.5
2-15Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzH0-081%10.8
2-18Oakland (245.0)HorzH0-077%8.9
2-21Valparaiso (174.9)HorzA0-043%-2.0
2-26Milwaukee (267.7)HorzH0-078%9.5
2-28Illinois Chicago (270.5)HorzA0-061%3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz36.1126.4876.9262.8019.446.78
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.5533.3346.99-0.00-0.27
OaklandHorz0.004.520.0032.40-0.00-1.59
DetroitHorz0.004.5133.3354.71-0.000.43
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.4925.0036.13-0.00-1.24
Youngstown St.Horz0.004.4825.0036.17-0.00-1.24
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4866.6754.750.000.43
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.470.0033.24-0.00-1.50
Green BayHorz0.004.470.0068.01-0.001.61
BelmontOVC16.673.60100.0076.5316.671.91
Bowling GreenMAC16.671.97100.0060.0716.670.40
Western CarolinaSC0.001.940.0049.42-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.001.9166.6734.740.00-0.58
EvansvilleMVC0.001.88100.0063.400.000.50
Cal St. FullertonBW0.001.8533.3336.29-0.00-0.51
FIUCUSA0.001.85100.0043.600.00-0.24
USC UpstateASun0.001.85100.0051.560.000.06
Charleston SouthernBSth16.671.82100.0057.1716.670.26
Ohio St.B100.001.82100.0070.760.000.75
George MasonA100.001.7925.0020.03-0.00-1.07
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2925.0059.16-0.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.25100.0070.980.000.11
DrakeMVC4.170.240.0025.08-4.17-0.12
Georgia St.SB0.000.240.0057.63-0.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.2250.0056.270.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.22100.0049.250.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.2033.3355.40-0.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.200.0025.43-0.00-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.19100.0064.090.000.05
LipscombASun2.780.190.0042.80-2.78-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.190.0031.61-0.00-0.07
VCUA100.000.19100.0073.570.000.09
ToledoMAC0.000.1933.3364.19-0.000.05
WisconsinB100.000.17100.0084.890.000.12
LongwoodBSth0.000.1633.3322.74-0.00-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.000.1650.0071.840.000.07
Ball St.MAC0.000.160.0036.36-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1620.0026.89-0.00-0.07
UCFAmer0.000.16100.0046.730.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA2.780.1633.3341.77-0.93-0.03
DaytonA100.000.1666.6769.640.000.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.130.0033.98-0.00-0.04
South DakotaSum0.000.130.0042.57-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.13100.0037.850.00-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1350.0052.920.000.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1333.3340.99-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.13100.0085.100.000.09
New MexicoMWC0.000.1375.0059.530.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.130.0027.82-0.00-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1350.0052.290.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.130.0038.59-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1350.0037.760.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.130.0028.50-0.00-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.13100.0046.020.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.1366.6763.730.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1366.6760.610.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.130.0033.25-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1350.0045.600.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.13100.0045.990.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1350.0033.700.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0032.70-0.00-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0054.710.000.01
MarylandB100.000.12100.0064.500.000.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6751.200.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1233.3332.78-0.00-0.04
MichiganB100.000.12100.0064.370.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.12100.0078.630.000.07
NorthwesternB100.000.12100.0042.120.00-0.02
IUPUISum0.000.1050.0031.810.00-0.04
LibertyBSth0.000.1033.3335.41-0.00-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.10100.0072.420.000.04
CampbellBSth0.000.100.0030.19-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.000.1075.0055.790.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.10100.0072.860.000.04
IPFWSum0.000.1050.0063.720.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.100.0032.07-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1075.0075.140.000.05
Rhode IslandA100.000.10100.0056.240.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.10100.0046.040.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1033.3341.92-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0966.6746.540.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0024.17-0.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0966.6766.670.000.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0966.6771.600.000.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0750.0053.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.070.0033.55-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0073.530.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0073.660.000.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0766.6740.400.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0063.56-0.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6768.980.000.03
MontanaBSky0.000.070.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.07100.0052.590.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0024.77-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.97-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0766.6752.030.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.03-0.00-0.03
MissouriSEC0.000.0766.6749.590.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.860.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0047.13-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0051.660.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0733.3345.63-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.27-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.06100.0045.350.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.060.0031.23-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0061.850.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0650.0053.040.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0650.0061.440.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0625.0031.12-0.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6776.510.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0620.0027.80-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0633.3349.42-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
RichmondA100.000.0666.6767.450.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0041.91-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.36-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0080.090.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0650.0044.170.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0046.61-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.98-0.00-0.02
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3325.18-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0650.0049.760.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0675.0054.790.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.830.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3353.79-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0052.260.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0666.6750.790.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0625.0031.88-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0068.880.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.08-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.18-0.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.06100.0042.650.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0063.070.000.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.720.000.03
VMISC0.000.0633.3339.27-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0666.6762.540.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
IndianaB100.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
IowaB100.000.0650.0065.570.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0675.0047.170.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.550.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0019.92-0.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC4.170.0366.6755.981.390.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0060.360.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.030.0033.08-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.030.0066.25-0.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0052.610.000.00
FordhamA100.000.030.0035.11-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0053.840.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3357.45-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.120.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0040.91-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6752.550.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.570.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3341.21-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0375.0042.500.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.84-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0375.0071.100.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0333.3346.76-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0045.790.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.03100.0050.830.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0333.3327.11-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0350.0046.250.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0017.53-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0044.850.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3349.04-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0053.430.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.030.0019.17-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0050.76-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0062.510.000.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0350.0037.430.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.000.0333.3341.16-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0067.100.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0333.3340.91-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.320.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0350.0037.560.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0037.890.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0034.510.00-0.01