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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:172.2
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:191
Current SOS:211
Current Record:5-3
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-4
Current OOC Record:5-3
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-648.00.01%
22-764.70.09%
21-870.30.31%
20-986.71.18%
19-10100.83.33%
18-11117.57.13%
17-12134.212.44%
16-13152.216.82%
15-14171.719.39%
14-15191.215.80%
13-16212.112.37%
12-17232.66.74%
11-18253.63.05%
10-19271.31.01%
9-20284.90.28%
8-21303.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCA81-85W100%0.0
11-15Miami OH (286.7)MACH89-87W100%0.0
11-19Toledo (170.4)MACH78-82L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Bakersfield (142.6)WACH68-64W100%0.0
11-26North Dakota (236.5)BSkyH83-79W100%0.0
11-27North Florida (255.3)ASunH75-67W100%0.0
11-30Georgia St. (105.9)SBA81-74L0%0.0
12-3Penn St. (121.4)B10A72-50L0%0.0
12-7Loyola Chicago (143.8)MVCA0-023%-9.1
12-18Kent St. (194.9)MACA0-031%-5.9
12-22Murray St. (137.0)OVCA0-027%-7.5
12-29Oakland (95.3)HorzA0-016%-11.9
12-31Detroit (295.7)HorzA0-063%4.0
1-5Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzH0-075%7.9
1-7Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzH0-072%7.0
1-12Green Bay (148.5)HorzA0-034%-5.1
1-14Milwaukee (255.6)HorzA0-056%1.8
1-20Detroit (295.7)HorzH0-081%10.3
1-22Oakland (95.3)HorzH0-032%-5.6
1-27Valparaiso (75.8)HorzA0-018%-10.9
1-29Illinois Chicago (242.3)HorzA0-044%-1.7
2-4Northern Kentucky (166.0)HorzH0-058%2.3
2-9Milwaukee (255.6)HorzH0-075%8.0
2-11Green Bay (148.5)HorzH0-054%1.2
2-16Youngstown St. (237.3)HorzA0-052%0.7
2-18Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzA0-056%1.7
2-21Northern Kentucky (166.0)HorzA0-037%-4.0
2-24Valparaiso (75.8)HorzH0-035%-4.7
2-26Illinois Chicago (242.3)HorzH0-065%4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz29.0326.4059.3852.825.441.49
DetroitHorz0.004.450.0020.71-0.00-2.61
Green BayHorz0.394.4542.8651.63-0.060.15
MilwaukeeHorz0.004.4328.5732.47-0.00-1.55
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.004.4242.8645.45-0.00-0.40
Northern KentuckyHorz0.454.4257.1454.080.060.36
Cleveland St.Horz0.004.4228.5731.18-0.00-1.66
Youngstown St.Horz0.394.4242.8638.20-0.06-1.04
ValparaisoHorz0.004.4085.7175.090.002.21
OaklandHorz0.004.3985.7177.240.002.39
ToledoMAC6.252.0228.5746.12-2.68-0.16
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.001.9371.4358.250.000.32
Kent St.MAC0.001.9057.1453.860.000.15
Murray St.OVC0.451.8750.0060.790.000.40
Miami OHMAC6.251.8750.0032.030.00-0.67
Southern IllinoisMVC6.251.8166.6750.832.080.03
North FloridaASun7.741.7914.2936.13-5.53-0.50
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC7.681.7950.0062.970.000.46
North DakotaBSky7.091.7950.0056.580.000.24
Georgia St.SB6.251.7240.0059.16-1.250.32
Penn St.B106.251.7262.5044.641.56-0.18
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.3828.5741.52-0.00-0.07
Central MichiganMAC0.000.2671.4356.250.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.2683.3371.480.000.11
Chicago St.WAC0.000.2420.0022.75-0.00-0.13
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2316.6736.03-0.00-0.07
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.2342.8645.56-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.2150.0064.350.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.2142.8647.11-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.2171.4368.980.000.08
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0024.64-0.00-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1857.1459.280.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1857.1450.080.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.390.1842.8644.71-0.06-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1850.0056.740.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.1762.5050.710.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1742.8650.11-0.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1760.0058.590.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1612.5023.75-0.00-0.08
UMKCWAC0.000.1662.5052.330.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.350.1542.8658.58-0.050.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1533.3352.84-0.000.01
Austin PeayOVC0.450.1533.3336.74-0.15-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.450.1550.0041.990.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1575.0054.670.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1560.0067.760.000.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1555.5658.610.000.03
PurdueB100.520.1575.0075.340.260.07
BuffaloMAC0.000.1533.3352.21-0.000.01
NJITASun0.520.1250.0049.780.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.1271.4357.970.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1242.8638.63-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.780.1287.5076.230.590.06
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1237.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1222.2241.71-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1242.8627.96-0.00-0.05
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6735.430.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0019.67-0.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1283.3379.850.000.07
KentuckySEC0.000.1287.5082.800.000.08
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1275.0086.710.000.09
Portland St.BSky0.000.1040.0043.41-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1022.2221.23-0.00-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0971.4355.160.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0925.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0950.0062.380.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0962.5066.900.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.370.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6738.58-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.450.0950.0041.990.00-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.450.0971.4370.210.190.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.95-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0022.31-0.00-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0039.59-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0925.0035.09-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0950.0044.400.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.350.0944.4442.03-0.04-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0987.5068.610.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0977.7876.040.000.05
Western IllinoisSum0.450.090.0016.68-0.45-0.06
MinnesotaB100.450.0887.5068.020.330.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0712.5029.15-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1458.940.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0716.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0716.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0022.01-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0775.0070.180.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0716.6739.49-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.450.070.0033.85-0.45-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6757.300.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.940.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.910.0685.7157.450.650.01
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.46-0.00-0.05
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.520.0650.0050.840.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.60-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.450.0685.7166.190.320.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
AmericanPat0.000.0614.2931.35-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0677.7871.970.000.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0657.1458.840.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8646.14-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0650.0045.970.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.450.0625.0031.41-0.22-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.390.0642.8645.30-0.06-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.790.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5069.130.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0054.070.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.900.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.490.000.03
RutgersB100.000.0685.7145.370.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0052.760.000.00
ArizonaP120.450.0375.0068.370.220.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.55-0.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.450.0366.6740.030.15-0.01
SMUAmer0.450.0366.6766.860.150.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.390.0387.5075.240.290.02
LSUSEC0.390.0371.4349.170.17-0.00
Miami FLACC0.390.0375.0066.100.200.01
SyracuseACC0.390.0371.4366.700.170.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0046.410.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.520.0375.0048.030.26-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
Washington St.P120.000.0342.8628.98-0.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0025.23-0.00-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.450.0311.1148.19-0.35-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.12-0.000.00
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.450.0350.0066.300.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.390.0383.3377.100.260.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.350.0342.8661.11-0.050.01
CincinnatiAmer0.350.0387.5082.360.260.02
ColgatePat0.350.0312.5029.71-0.26-0.01
DukeACC0.350.0388.8978.400.270.02
George WashingtonA100.350.0355.5641.690.04-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.350.0357.1436.010.05-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.460.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0375.0049.180.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01