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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:129.0
Current RPI:129
Expected SOS:210
Current SOS:210
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:209
Expected OOC SOS:333


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-12129.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Idaho (195.0)WACA70-80W100%0.0
11-13Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCA44-56W100%0.0
11-16North Carolina A&T (213.0)MEACH56-44W100%0.0
11-21Central Michigan (268.0)MACN55-59L0%0.0
11-23Idaho St. (337.0)BSkyN45-60W100%0.0
11-24Utah (161.0)P12A66-54L0%0.0
12-1Morehead St. (172.0)OVCH66-57W100%0.0
12-3Bowling Green (274.0)MACA54-41L0%0.0
12-8Virginia Military Inst (302.0)BSthH92-59W100%0.0
12-15Hofstra (325.0)CAAA57-63W100%0.0
12-19Miami OH (258.0)MACH67-59W100%0.0
12-22Cincinnati (50.0)BEA68-58L0%0.0
1-3Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzH64-53W100%0.0
1-5Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)HorzH53-51W100%0.0
1-9Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzH69-53W100%0.0
1-11Loyola Chicago (223.0)HorzA61-62W100%0.0
1-19Valparaiso (58.0)HorzA69-63L0%0.0
1-21Detroit (63.0)HorzA62-64W100%0.0
1-23Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzA68-61L0%0.0
1-26Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzH49-55L0%0.0
1-30Detroit (63.0)HorzH76-83L0%0.0
2-4Loyola Chicago (223.0)HorzH62-59W100%0.0
2-7Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)HorzA68-70W100%0.0
2-9Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)HorzA49-64W100%0.0
2-12Valparaiso (58.0)HorzH61-68L0%0.0
2-20Cleveland St. (199.0)HorzA41-50W100%0.0
2-23Evansville (106.0)MVCH58-70L0%0.0
2-26Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzA60-55L0%0.0
3-2Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzH72-45W100%0.0
3-8Youngstown St. (188.0)HorzN66-59W100%0.0
3-9Detroit (63.0)HorzN54-56W100%0.0
3-12Valparaiso (58.0)HorzA62-54L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.5426.5464.4764.477.687.68
Youngstown St.Horz5.615.6150.0050.000.000.00
ValparaisoHorz5.575.5775.8675.862.882.88
DetroitHorz5.545.5462.9662.961.441.44
Wisconsin Green BayHorz4.214.2156.6756.670.560.56
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.134.1348.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Loyola ChicagoHorz4.084.0850.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz4.074.0740.7440.74-0.75-0.75
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz4.054.0521.4321.43-2.31-2.31
Bowling GreenMAC1.881.8834.4834.48-0.58-0.58
Central MichiganMAC1.751.7531.0331.03-0.66-0.66
Miami OHMAC1.741.7427.5927.59-0.78-0.78
Idaho St.BSky1.641.6417.8617.86-1.05-1.05
IdahoWAC1.641.6439.2939.29-0.35-0.35
UtahP121.621.6240.0040.00-0.32-0.32
EvansvilleMVC1.591.5953.3353.330.110.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.591.5936.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Morehead St.OVC1.591.5943.3343.33-0.21-0.21
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.591.5954.5554.550.140.14
CincinnatiBE1.591.5965.6265.620.500.50
HofstraCAA1.561.5620.0020.00-0.94-0.94
Virginia Military InstBSth1.561.5640.7440.74-0.29-0.29
Kent St.MAC0.390.3959.3859.380.070.07
ToledoMAC0.360.3653.5753.570.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.360.3613.7913.79-0.26-0.26
AkronMAC0.260.2680.6580.650.160.16
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.2537.0437.04-0.07-0.07
BuffaloMAC0.230.2337.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2037.5037.50-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.GWC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
South FloridaBE0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
Murray St.OVC0.170.1765.5265.520.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Ball St.MAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1571.4371.430.070.07
BradleyMVC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.150.1545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.130.1358.8258.820.020.02
OhioMAC0.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
DePaulBE0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
PittsburghBE0.130.1375.0075.000.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCAA0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Texas St.WAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
TempleA100.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
CampbellBSth0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
SyracuseBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
WisconsinB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
NebraskaB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.107.147.14-0.08-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
OaklandSum0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
Georgia SouthernSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Utah St.WAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
GramblingSWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0844.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Michigan St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
CaliforniaP120.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0828.0028.00-0.03-0.03
Southern MethodistCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameBE0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
MarquetteBE0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0767.8667.860.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DenverWAC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.WAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas San AntonioWAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
DavidsonSC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
FurmanSC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CreightonMVC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.CAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Long IslandNEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MercerASun0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NevadaMWC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
RutgersBE0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas El PasoCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CharlotteA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New Orleansind0.030.0318.1818.18-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ButlerA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
XavierA100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
NC GreensboroSC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.020.0248.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.020.0235.7135.71-0.01-0.01