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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:115.0
Current RPI:115
Expected SOS:163
Current SOS:163
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:124



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12115.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA81-85W100%0.0
11-15Miami OH (302.0)MACH89-87W100%0.0
11-19Toledo (155.0)MACH78-82L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH68-64W100%0.0
11-26North Dakota (144.0)BSkyH83-79W100%0.0
11-27North Florida (217.0)ASunH75-67W100%0.0
11-30Georgia St. (104.0)SBA81-74L0%0.0
12-3Penn St. (101.0)B10A72-50L0%0.0
12-7Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA77-64L0%0.0
12-18Kent St. (142.0)MACA63-68W100%0.0
12-22Murray St. (230.0)OVCA62-77W100%0.0
12-29Oakland (109.0)HorzA81-62L0%0.0
12-31Detroit (289.0)HorzA72-85W100%0.0
1-5Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH55-51W100%0.0
1-7Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzH75-80L0%0.0
1-12Green Bay (157.0)HorzA78-61L0%0.0
1-14Milwaukee (256.0)HorzA67-70W100%0.0
1-20Detroit (289.0)HorzH106-88W100%0.0
1-22Oakland (109.0)HorzH88-67W100%0.0
1-27Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA70-55L0%0.0
1-29Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA86-88W100%0.0
2-4Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH79-83L0%0.0
2-9Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH76-65W100%0.0
2-11Green Bay (157.0)HorzH88-79W100%0.0
2-16Youngstown St. (251.0)HorzA81-84W100%0.0
2-18Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzA68-74W100%0.0
2-21Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzA83-76L0%0.0
2-24Valparaiso (71.0)HorzH74-84L0%0.0
2-26Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzH87-49W100%0.0
3-5Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzN82-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.4026.4061.4361.436.036.03
Northern KentuckyHorz5.995.9965.5265.521.861.86
MilwaukeeHorz4.534.5331.2531.25-1.70-1.70
Youngstown St.Horz4.474.4733.3333.33-1.49-1.49
Illinois ChicagoHorz4.384.3844.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Green BayHorz4.354.3555.5655.560.480.48
DetroitHorz4.354.3525.0025.00-2.17-2.17
Cleveland St.Horz4.324.3228.5728.57-1.85-1.85
ValparaisoHorz4.304.3072.4172.411.931.93
OaklandHorz4.304.3075.0075.002.152.15
ToledoMAC1.941.9448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.871.8751.7251.720.060.06
Kent St.MAC1.831.8363.6463.640.500.50
Miami OHMAC1.821.8231.0331.03-0.69-0.69
Murray St.OVC1.811.8146.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Southern IllinoisMVC1.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
North FloridaASun1.731.7337.9337.93-0.42-0.42
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.721.7270.3770.370.700.70
North DakotaBSky1.721.7270.3770.370.700.70
Georgia St.SB1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
Penn St.B101.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Bowling GreenMAC0.380.3838.7138.71-0.09-0.09
OhioMAC0.290.2963.3363.330.080.08
Central MichiganMAC0.270.2746.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.220.2210.3410.34-0.18-0.18
Northern IllinoisMAC0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.210.2175.7675.760.110.11
Ball St.MAC0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1712.9012.90-0.13-0.13
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1681.2581.250.100.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Michigan St.B100.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
PurdueB100.130.1378.1278.120.080.08
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.130.1377.7877.780.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
NJITASun0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
LipscombASun0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0212.9012.90-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00