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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:110.8
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:176
Current Record:13-6
Expected Record:20-9
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:89
Expected OOC SOS:65



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-665.72.28%
22-778.812.71%
21-894.224.64%
20-9111.228.37%
19-10130.120.32%
18-11148.88.65%
17-12167.72.40%
16-13186.30.59%
15-14199.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCA84-80L0%0.0
11-14Miami OH (185.4)MACA73-67L0%0.0
11-18Murray St. (87.3)OVCH61-80L0%0.0
11-24Gardner Webb (228.2)BSthH67-47W100%0.0
11-25Jacksonville (301.6)ASunH68-44W100%0.0
11-26Fairfield (218.1)MAACH57-56W100%0.0
12-2Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA78-60L0%0.0
12-9Kent St. (185.1)MACH63-54W100%0.0
12-16Toledo (70.4)MACA69-77W100%0.0
12-19Missouri St. (58.1)MVCA66-50L0%0.0
12-22Georgia Tech (145.8)ACCA81-85W100%0.0
12-28Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzH65-61W100%0.0
12-30IUPUI (300.2)HorzH60-52W100%0.0
1-5Detroit (297.3)HorzA73-80W100%0.0
1-7Oakland (137.4)HorzA81-86W100%0.0
1-11Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzA81-84W100%0.0
1-15Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzH77-67W100%0.0
1-18Green Bay (325.1)HorzA67-80W100%0.0
1-20Milwaukee (242.2)HorzA66-61L0%0.0
1-26Detroit (297.3)HorzH0-087%12.4
1-28Oakland (137.4)HorzH0-057%2.0
2-1Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzA0-072%6.5
2-3Youngstown St. (314.7)HorzA0-075%7.5
2-8Green Bay (325.1)HorzH0-086%11.8
2-10Milwaukee (242.2)HorzH0-078%8.4
2-16Northern Kentucky (90.0)HorzH0-040%-2.8
2-19Cleveland St. (322.4)HorzH0-088%12.9
2-23IUPUI (300.2)HorzA0-070%5.8
2-25Illinois Chicago (259.5)HorzA0-057%1.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.3426.4074.1271.8112.7111.52
MilwaukeeHorz3.264.4742.1146.02-0.51-0.36
Cleveland St.Horz0.694.4720.0023.57-0.42-2.36
DetroitHorz3.194.4722.2227.40-1.77-2.02
OaklandHorz3.124.4465.0068.180.941.62
Illinois ChicagoHorz3.114.4344.4447.81-0.35-0.19
Youngstown St.Horz3.114.4322.2224.33-1.73-2.28
Green BayHorz3.194.4026.3229.53-1.51-1.80
Northern KentuckyHorz3.044.4070.5976.541.252.34
IUPUIHorz3.114.4029.4131.01-1.28-1.67
Kent St.MAC2.921.9647.0646.47-0.17-0.14
ToledoMAC2.841.9670.5970.041.170.78
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.911.9377.7873.271.610.90
JacksonvilleASun2.841.8435.2935.07-0.84-0.55
Missouri St.MVC2.771.8168.4267.201.020.62
Miami OHMAC2.701.8143.7539.32-0.34-0.39
FairfieldMAAC2.781.7941.1845.65-0.49-0.16
Gardner WebbBSth2.781.7941.1842.30-0.49-0.28
Murray St.OVC2.701.7868.7575.021.010.89
Western KentuckyCUSA2.701.7566.6769.810.900.69
Georgia TechACC2.631.7255.5644.550.29-0.19
Western MichiganMAC0.420.3852.9452.230.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.270.3041.1839.16-0.05-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.2646.6746.97-0.01-0.02
AkronMAC0.070.2347.0644.91-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.150.2161.1158.700.030.04
Illinois St.MVC0.280.2147.3746.09-0.01-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.2158.8249.760.04-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.270.2144.4446.02-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.280.2052.6351.690.010.01
OhioMAC0.220.2047.0648.41-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.1929.4133.93-0.09-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.220.1877.7879.150.120.11
BelmontOVC0.280.1871.4374.660.120.09
BradleyMVC0.140.1865.0057.880.040.03
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1623.5328.69-0.08-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.1531.5832.72-0.08-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.220.1542.8635.24-0.03-0.05
WisconsinB100.200.1550.0046.300.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1555.0052.470.010.01
DePaulBE0.220.1542.1134.31-0.03-0.05
BuffaloMAC0.150.1572.2274.930.070.07
ValparaisoMVC0.270.1547.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1462.5058.690.040.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1336.8432.76-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.070.1333.3336.93-0.02-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.150.1244.4446.00-0.02-0.01
PurdueB100.220.1290.4888.370.170.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.210.1210.0019.63-0.17-0.07
IonaMAAC0.150.1260.0064.110.030.03
DrakeMVC0.070.1255.0048.980.01-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1252.6347.520.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.1257.1453.050.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1244.4450.08-0.020.00
Michigan St.B100.060.1185.0083.200.040.08
SyracuseACC0.140.1168.4261.230.050.03
USC UpstateASun0.150.0911.1118.00-0.11-0.06
MaristMAAC0.150.0921.0522.02-0.09-0.05
MichiganB100.140.0976.1970.740.070.04
Saint LouisA100.150.0947.3746.92-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.140.0966.6763.200.050.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.0972.2274.710.070.04
UABCUSA0.140.0961.1164.130.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0961.9063.140.020.02
FIUCUSA0.070.0935.2935.54-0.02-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.210.0950.0050.860.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.0950.0051.640.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0941.1838.47-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.140.0965.0062.050.040.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0968.4257.740.030.01
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0978.9576.750.080.05
MarshallCUSA0.140.0968.4263.650.050.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.099.5217.90-0.06-0.05
KansasB120.140.0884.2179.750.090.05
Oral RobertsSum0.130.0830.0032.52-0.05-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0821.0544.26-0.08-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.260.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.050.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
LipscombASun0.070.0652.9459.340.000.01
NJITASun0.070.0638.8942.61-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.070.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0642.1143.51-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0626.3231.50-0.04-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0657.8953.190.010.00
Washington St.P120.070.0647.3741.44-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.150.0689.4777.000.120.03
CampbellBSth0.070.0647.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0625.0031.45-0.04-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0643.7549.23-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0625.0028.24-0.04-0.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0650.0054.190.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0616.6716.16-0.05-0.04
MemphisAmer0.070.0665.0058.540.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0672.2258.920.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0627.7827.10-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.070.0657.8958.850.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0668.4263.960.030.02
UMBCAE0.070.0655.5655.540.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0652.6358.590.000.01
VermontAE0.070.0675.0077.850.040.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0650.0059.450.000.01
FloridaSEC0.140.0673.6871.560.070.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.0650.0052.460.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0665.0056.340.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.140.0620.0041.73-0.08-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0666.6763.070.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.070.0621.4326.35-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.060.009.09-0.07-0.05
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.065.8819.35-0.06-0.04
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0643.7540.93-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0657.8950.710.010.00
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.220.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.970.030.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.0640.0042.52-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0627.7841.030.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0643.7554.11-0.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0658.8257.140.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0635.0031.830.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.320.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0657.1460.410.010.01
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5729.940.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.380.030.03
TroySB0.070.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0645.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.140.0677.7870.480.080.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.060.0010.67-0.14-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.0618.7536.82-0.09-0.02
PennIvy0.150.0664.7162.720.040.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0627.7831.110.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.64-0.04-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0689.4785.550.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0642.1132.470.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.690.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.070.0644.4446.65-0.01-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.060.060.003.07-0.06-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.240.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0637.5045.24-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.140.0663.1661.020.040.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0663.1665.970.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.7486.140.060.04
Wake ForestACC0.000.0642.1140.460.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.070.030.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0355.5656.740.010.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.29-0.06-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0327.7831.71-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.250.030.01
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.860.030.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.990.040.02
FordhamA100.080.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
New HampshireAE0.070.0333.3340.08-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0380.9576.520.050.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1657.890.020.00
UMKCWAC0.070.0321.0524.75-0.04-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0371.4370.240.030.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.33-0.01-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0366.6765.370.020.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0352.6355.290.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.070.0363.1663.220.020.01
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.840.010.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0311.1117.680.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.570.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.980.030.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0352.9455.030.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.070.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0394.7490.310.060.02
XavierBE0.070.0385.7180.080.050.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.670.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.210.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0373.6869.640.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0366.6755.940.020.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0378.9569.790.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0340.0030.87-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.690.030.01
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00