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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Wright St.

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:146.0
Current RPI:146
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:228
Current Record:20-13
Expected Record:20-13
Current Conf Record:16-6
Expected Conf Record:16-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:248
Expected OOC SOS:216



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-13146.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wright St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13South Dakota (197.0)SumN77-69W100%0.0
11-14Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWN72-67L0%0.0
11-15Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA65-59L0%0.0
11-20Kentucky (11.0)SECA78-63L0%0.0
11-28George Mason (201.0)A10A66-39L0%0.0
12-4Georgia St. (180.0)SBH46-59L0%0.0
12-8Xavier (7.0)BEA90-55L0%0.0
12-13Miami OH (195.0)MACA72-67L0%0.0
12-17Charleston Southern (298.0)BSthH71-65W100%0.0
12-20Bowling Green (200.0)MACH83-47W100%0.0
12-22Murray St. (169.0)OVCH65-49W100%0.0
1-2Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA82-84W100%0.0
1-4Green Bay (112.0)HorzA76-68L0%0.0
1-9Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA46-60W100%0.0
1-14Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH70-53W100%0.0
1-16Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzH81-45W100%0.0
1-18Detroit (204.0)HorzH77-76W100%0.0
1-22Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH73-62W100%0.0
1-24Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH80-66W100%0.0
1-29Oakland (116.0)HorzA89-63L0%0.0
1-31Detroit (204.0)HorzA75-68L0%0.0
2-4Milwaukee (173.0)HorzH84-83W100%0.0
2-6Green Bay (112.0)HorzH79-60W100%0.0
2-11Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzA64-59L0%0.0
2-13Valparaiso (49.0)HorzA59-61W100%0.0
2-15Oakland (116.0)HorzH73-89L0%0.0
2-20Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzH67-64W100%0.0
2-25Youngstown St. (275.0)HorzA81-87W100%0.0
2-27Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzA51-55W100%0.0
3-5Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzN74-43W100%0.0
3-6Detroit (204.0)HorzN82-72W100%0.0
3-7Oakland (116.0)HorzN55-59W100%0.0
3-8Green Bay (112.0)HorzN69-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wright St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Wright St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Wright St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Wright St.Horz26.6826.6863.3163.317.107.10
Green BayHorz5.675.6763.3363.331.511.51
DetroitHorz5.575.5750.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz5.525.528.008.00-4.63-4.63
OaklandHorz5.515.5165.5265.521.711.71
MilwaukeeHorz4.214.2162.0762.071.021.02
Youngstown St.Horz4.144.1432.1432.14-1.48-1.48
Cleveland St.Horz4.134.1325.0025.00-2.06-2.06
ValparaisoHorz4.114.1185.7185.712.932.93
Northern KentuckyHorz4.104.1026.9226.92-1.89-1.89
Bowling GreenMAC1.771.7745.1645.16-0.17-0.17
Northern IllinoisMAC1.701.7057.1457.140.240.24
South DakotaSum1.621.6241.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Miami OHMAC1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
XavierBE1.591.5983.8783.871.081.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.571.5725.9325.93-0.75-0.75
Murray St.OVC1.561.5653.5753.570.110.11
Charleston SouthernBSth1.521.5223.0823.08-0.82-0.82
George MasonA101.521.5232.2632.26-0.54-0.54
Georgia St.SB1.521.5248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
KentuckySEC1.521.5275.7675.760.780.78
ToledoMAC0.500.5051.6151.610.020.02
AkronMAC0.320.3275.7675.760.160.16
Eastern MichiganMAC0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
OhioMAC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.220.223.453.45-0.20-0.20
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.6258.620.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.170.1721.4321.43-0.10-0.10
IPFWSum0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.130.1329.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1311.1111.11-0.10-0.10
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1231.2531.25-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1077.4277.420.060.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
DenverSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Notre DameACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
StanfordP120.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
DaytonA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MarquetteBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
PacificWCC0.070.0723.0823.08-0.04-0.04
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AmericanPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.040.0457.5857.580.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.040.0444.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0476.4776.470.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ColgatePat0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.020.0237.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UMBCAE0.020.0221.8821.88-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
KansasB120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01