live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


UT Rio Grande Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:300.9
Current RPI:304
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:239
Current Record:7-18
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:2-9
Expected Conf Record:3-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:272



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18259.20.84%
9-19281.621.27%
8-20302.049.15%
7-21314.628.73%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Rio Grande Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tennessee Martin (174.7)OVCA88-80L0%0.0
11-14Memphis (105.7)AmerA94-75L0%0.0
11-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndH72-94L0%0.0
11-20Iowa (108.6)B10A95-67L0%0.0
11-22Southeast Missouri St. (284.7)OVCA83-72L0%0.0
11-25Grambling St. (331.4)SWACN101-93W100%0.0
11-26St. Francis NY (347.8)NECN71-61W100%0.0
11-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndA84-68L0%0.0
12-3Portland St. (267.1)BSkyA87-74L0%0.0
12-5Portland (231.7)WCCA90-89L0%0.0
12-7Texas St. (210.2)SBH72-61W100%0.0
12-12North Florida (239.9)ASunH98-84W100%0.0
12-16Lamar (233.9)SlndH95-81W100%0.0
12-17Houston (50.7)AmerA83-58L0%0.0
1-5Chicago St. (314.1)WACA64-83W100%0.0
1-7UMKC (182.1)WACA83-79L0%0.0
1-12Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACH81-88L0%0.0
1-14Grand Canyon (149.6)WACH66-79L0%0.0
1-21Chicago St. (314.1)WACH85-77W100%0.0
1-26Utah Valley (231.1)WACA92-81L0%0.0
1-28Seattle (287.0)WACA96-84L0%0.0
2-4UMKC (182.1)WACH60-73L0%0.0
2-9Grand Canyon (149.6)WACA76-57L0%0.0
2-11Cal St. Bakersfield (77.9)WACA75-53L0%0.0
2-18New Mexico St. (56.2)WACH101-107L0%0.0
2-23Seattle (287.0)WACH0-052%0.4
2-25Utah Valley (231.1)WACH0-037%-3.5
3-4New Mexico St. (56.2)WACA0-05%-17.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Rio Grande Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UT Rio Grande Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UT Rio Grande Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC26.4226.4328.1627.47-11.54-11.91
UMKCWAC4.584.4343.4842.91-0.60-0.63
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.584.4266.6769.021.531.68
Chicago St.WAC4.544.4013.0412.71-3.35-3.28
Grand CanyonWAC4.504.3762.5062.861.131.12
New Mexico St.WAC2.734.3682.6183.021.782.88
SeattleWAC2.734.3636.3634.78-0.75-1.33
Utah ValleyWAC2.734.3631.8232.90-0.99-1.49
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.123.6757.1458.890.590.65
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.231.9738.4640.10-0.52-0.39
LamarSlnd2.171.9252.1754.050.090.16
Tennessee MartinOVC2.151.9157.6958.310.330.32
Portland St.BSky2.121.8938.1041.91-0.51-0.30
MemphisAmer2.071.8765.3861.940.640.45
North FloridaASun2.091.8532.0033.35-0.75-0.62
Texas St.SB2.091.8556.5255.180.270.19
HoustonAmer2.041.8469.2368.070.780.67
PortlandWCC2.051.8226.9226.92-0.94-0.84
IowaB102.041.8151.8549.970.08-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC2.001.7939.1341.65-0.43-0.30
St. Francis NYNEC2.001.7911.1111.77-1.56-1.37
UTSACUSA0.260.2736.0035.97-0.07-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.2622.7323.17-0.11-0.14
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.2222.2224.27-0.11-0.12
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.270.2214.8115.43-0.19-0.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.220.2112.5014.87-0.16-0.14
Houston BaptistSlnd0.130.2042.8645.36-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.2034.7833.41-0.05-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.170.2031.8233.09-0.06-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.210.2063.6464.970.060.06
BYUWCC0.170.2065.5264.140.050.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1914.2918.10-0.12-0.12
Murray St.OVC0.150.1946.1546.49-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.200.1985.7185.540.140.13
UCFAmer0.190.1964.2963.820.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1764.0065.600.040.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.220.1736.3636.47-0.06-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.1752.1753.700.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1620.0021.74-0.08-0.09
Notre DameACC0.160.1675.0074.370.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.160.1626.0928.38-0.08-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.1630.7734.71-0.08-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.190.1550.0049.270.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.150.1518.5218.47-0.10-0.09
TulsaAmer0.190.1546.1547.81-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1423.0823.14-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.090.1412.0013.36-0.07-0.10
UC DavisBW0.090.1456.0055.930.010.02
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1416.0016.87-0.09-0.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1327.2728.66-0.08-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1358.3359.220.030.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1327.5928.17-0.07-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.080.1357.1456.440.010.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.1340.0041.64-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.160.1389.2987.680.130.10
Cal PolyBW0.160.1325.0027.75-0.08-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.120.13100.0099.810.120.13
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1388.8989.350.130.10
USC UpstateASun0.160.1350.0049.750.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1364.2964.460.050.04
San DiegoWCC0.080.1340.7440.12-0.01-0.03
DePaulBE0.160.1332.1430.89-0.06-0.05
TroySB0.120.1353.8552.820.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1352.1749.960.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1344.4443.17-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1351.7250.330.010.00
South DakotaSum0.150.1262.9662.810.040.03
Austin PeayOVC0.070.1230.7730.10-0.03-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1246.1546.96-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1246.4343.89-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1233.3334.37-0.05-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.090.1060.8760.770.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1057.6957.750.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.130.1059.0960.070.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1048.1548.38-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.130.1062.9662.450.030.03
Arizona St.P120.090.1046.4344.09-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.080.1055.5655.660.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.1020.0022.21-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1046.1546.35-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.120.1029.6328.42-0.05-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0940.7440.75-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.110.0929.6328.76-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.120.0934.4834.78-0.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.120.0926.0925.92-0.06-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.0937.5042.38-0.03-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.0951.8551.810.000.00
NorthwesternB100.120.0971.4368.340.050.03
WisconsinB100.080.0981.4880.840.050.06
AlbanyAE0.110.0958.6259.810.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.110.0960.7160.840.020.02
VirginiaACC0.110.0966.6767.600.040.03
Penn St.B100.080.0950.0048.740.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.110.0955.5655.020.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.040.0988.8987.450.030.07
South FloridaAmer0.110.0926.9225.66-0.05-0.04
TempleAmer0.110.0948.2850.61-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.090.0726.0925.97-0.04-0.03
DenverSum0.040.0757.1456.680.010.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0750.0050.340.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.090.0746.1546.03-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0766.6765.160.030.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0734.7836.95-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0751.8551.660.000.00
UtahP120.040.0760.0060.170.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.040.0742.3143.98-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0733.3332.52-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.040.0742.3139.94-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0729.1731.48-0.02-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.040.0734.6233.56-0.01-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0765.3864.150.010.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0773.0873.880.040.03
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0750.0049.370.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.080.0755.5655.680.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0740.7442.89-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.080.0729.6330.60-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.040.0755.5656.300.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.040.0751.8554.430.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0750.0049.820.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0614.2913.58-0.06-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.040.064.005.36-0.04-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0628.0028.91-0.02-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0625.0027.77-0.04-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0640.7440.19-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0653.8551.910.010.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.080.0646.1547.50-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.080.0677.7875.390.040.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0622.2223.45-0.04-0.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0657.6958.300.010.01
KansasB120.080.0689.2987.840.060.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0656.0055.900.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0651.8550.690.000.00
OaklandHorz0.080.0674.0773.500.040.03
Saint LouisA100.080.0632.1431.02-0.03-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.040.0644.0042.77-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0642.8643.32-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0659.2662.730.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0676.0076.570.040.03
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0678.5777.380.050.03
West VirginiaB120.080.0678.5777.800.050.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0675.0071.920.040.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0657.6957.630.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0633.3331.80-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0669.2368.600.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0630.4331.13-0.03-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.0079.920.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0625.9326.05-0.04-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0678.5776.170.040.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0629.6331.16-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0651.8551.270.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0678.5778.520.040.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0624.1424.50-0.04-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.070.0632.1432.21-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0657.6958.100.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0650.0049.560.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0657.6956.380.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0637.0436.81-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0658.6258.690.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.0625.0025.31-0.04-0.03
IndianaB100.070.0653.5752.940.010.00
MississippiSEC0.070.0660.7159.870.020.01
BryantNEC0.070.0635.7137.15-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.040.0618.5220.01-0.02-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0638.4638.56-0.02-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0660.7158.720.020.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0651.7253.710.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0637.9339.64-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0644.8343.96-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0642.3143.88-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0652.0053.230.000.00
MarylandB100.040.0677.7876.990.020.03
NebraskaB100.070.0644.0042.70-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.070.0682.1480.780.050.04
RutgersB100.070.0642.8642.33-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.050.0347.8350.77-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.040.0360.7159.670.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.040.0362.9661.340.010.01
FIUCUSA0.040.0316.0018.13-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0382.1480.600.020.02
Miami FLACC0.040.0370.3767.240.020.01
SyracuseACC0.040.0358.6257.910.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.040.0357.6955.370.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.040.0360.0059.400.010.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0348.0047.45-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.100.000.00
Little RockSB0.040.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0369.2370.270.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0330.7729.92-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.040.030.003.38-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.040.0343.4843.27-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0325.0026.71-0.02-0.01
DaytonA100.040.0380.7779.440.020.02
DuquesneA100.040.0335.7134.58-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.040.0382.1481.630.020.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.760.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0362.9662.600.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.040.0348.2848.17-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.040.0388.8988.050.030.02
ArmyPat0.040.0339.2938.46-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.040.0337.5037.60-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.040.0362.9661.470.010.01
HarvardIvy0.040.0366.6765.300.010.01
LafayettePat0.040.0325.9325.63-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0333.3332.68-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0344.0045.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0351.7249.530.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0357.1457.270.010.00
VermontAE0.040.0382.7682.940.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.040.0325.9327.44-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0366.6764.750.010.01
MichiganB100.040.0364.2963.090.010.01
Michigan St.B100.040.0359.2657.930.010.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0325.0026.25-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0375.0073.470.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.040.0382.7681.880.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0348.1547.59-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.040.0353.5752.340.000.00
OklahomaB120.040.0333.3333.59-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0362.9661.760.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0370.3770.540.020.01
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00