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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


UT Rio Grande Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:319.0
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:231
Current Record:7-22
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-13
Expected Conf Record:2-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC Record:5-9
Expected OOC RPI:249
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22319.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Rio Grande Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA88-80L0%0.0
11-14Memphis (120.0)AmerA94-75L0%0.0
11-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH72-94L0%0.0
11-20Iowa (81.0)B10A95-67L0%0.0
11-22Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA83-72L0%0.0
11-25Grambling St. (317.0)SWACN101-93W100%0.0
11-26St. Francis NY (348.0)NECN71-61W100%0.0
11-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA84-68L0%0.0
12-3Portland St. (268.0)BSkyA87-74L0%0.0
12-5Portland (233.0)WCCA90-89L0%0.0
12-7Texas St. (179.0)SBH72-61W100%0.0
12-12North Florida (217.0)ASunH98-84W100%0.0
12-16Lamar (232.0)SlndH95-81W100%0.0
12-17Houston (54.0)AmerA83-58L0%0.0
1-5Chicago St. (318.0)WACA64-83W100%0.0
1-7UMKC (184.0)WACA83-79L0%0.0
1-12Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH81-88L0%0.0
1-14Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH66-79L0%0.0
1-21Chicago St. (318.0)WACH85-77W100%0.0
1-26Utah Valley (206.0)WACA92-81L0%0.0
1-28Seattle (287.0)WACA96-84L0%0.0
2-4UMKC (184.0)WACH60-73L0%0.0
2-9Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA76-57L0%0.0
2-11Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA75-53L0%0.0
2-18New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH101-107L0%0.0
2-23Seattle (287.0)WACH77-86L0%0.0
2-25Utah Valley (206.0)WACH68-88L0%0.0
3-4New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA107-81L0%0.0
3-9UMKC (184.0)WACN82-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Rio Grande Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UT Rio Grande Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UT Rio Grande Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC26.4526.4523.2023.20-14.18-14.18
UMKCWAC6.016.0140.7440.74-1.11-1.11
New Mexico St.WAC4.444.4482.1482.142.852.85
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.404.4065.3865.381.351.35
Utah ValleyWAC4.354.3538.4638.46-1.00-1.00
Chicago St.WAC4.314.3111.1111.11-3.36-3.36
SeattleWAC4.284.2832.0032.00-1.54-1.54
Grand CanyonWAC4.234.2366.6766.671.411.41
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.543.5457.6957.690.540.54
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.931.9340.0040.00-0.39-0.39
Tennessee MartinOVC1.871.8760.0060.000.370.37
LamarSlnd1.851.8553.5753.570.130.13
Portland St.BSky1.811.8140.7440.74-0.34-0.34
MemphisAmer1.811.8158.0658.060.290.29
North FloridaASun1.791.7937.9337.93-0.43-0.43
Texas St.SB1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
HoustonAmer1.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
PortlandWCC1.751.7526.6726.67-0.82-0.82
IowaB101.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Grambling St.SWAC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
St. Francis NYNEC1.721.7210.3410.34-1.37-1.37
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.240.2451.7251.720.010.01
UTSACUSA0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.240.2419.2319.23-0.15-0.15
Murray St.OVC0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.210.2167.8667.860.070.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.2120.0020.00-0.13-0.13
UCFAmer0.200.2065.6265.620.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1918.5218.52-0.12-0.12
Houston BaptistSlnd0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1821.8821.88-0.10-0.10
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.1832.0032.00-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1822.5822.58-0.10-0.10
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.170.1788.2488.240.130.13
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.160.1664.5264.520.050.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.150.1536.0036.00-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Notre DameACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.150.1522.2222.22-0.08-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
USC UpstateASun0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.140.1458.8258.820.030.03
South DakotaSum0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
San DiegoWCC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.140.1419.3519.35-0.08-0.08
TulsaAmer0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.130.1312.9012.90-0.09-0.09
UC DavisBW0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
ArizonaP120.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
Cal PolyBW0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.120.1296.9796.970.110.11
DePaulBE0.120.1228.1228.12-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1144.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Penn St.B100.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Green BayHorz0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.090.0987.5087.500.060.06
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
West VirginiaB120.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
LSUSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RutgersB100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
VermontAE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00