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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


UT Rio Grande Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:227.1
Current RPI:240
Expected SOS:232
Current SOS:284
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:2-3
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:228
Expected OOC SOS:281



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12165.00.12%
16-13184.31.67%
15-14199.07.88%
14-15214.224.16%
13-16228.134.89%
12-17241.722.97%
11-18254.87.29%
10-19268.50.98%
9-20281.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UT Rio Grande Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Nicholls St. (200.2)SlndH106-111L0%0.0
11-13Bethune Cookman (288.9)MEACH92-74W100%0.0
11-15Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.6)SlndA75-82W100%0.0
11-18Texas St. (214.7)SBA75-58L0%0.0
11-20North Texas (217.6)CUSAA63-75W100%0.0
11-22Georgia Tech (146.9)ACCA78-68L0%0.0
11-25Grambling St. (287.3)SWACH76-82L0%0.0
11-28SMU (41.6)AmerA95-64L0%0.0
11-30Texas A&M (29.4)SECA78-60L0%0.0
12-2Rice (321.9)CUSAA67-69W100%0.0
12-6Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.6)SlndH82-78W100%0.0
12-9UC Irvine (175.4)BWH73-59W100%0.0
12-16UT Arlington (121.1)SBH65-86L0%0.0
12-22Oklahoma St. (95.1)B12A102-83L0%0.0
12-30Hampton (281.3)MEACH80-69W100%0.0
1-6UMKC (261.9)WACA61-73W100%0.0
1-11Cal St. Bakersfield (216.6)WACA74-87W100%0.0
1-13Grand Canyon (148.5)WACA84-71L0%0.0
1-18Utah Valley (84.1)WACH76-84L0%0.0
1-20Seattle (199.9)WACH76-79L0%0.0
1-27Chicago St. (336.6)WACA0-083%10.4
2-3New Mexico St. (43.2)WACA0-06%-17.5
2-8Grand Canyon (148.5)WACH0-025%-7.5
2-10Cal St. Bakersfield (216.6)WACH0-062%3.3
2-15Seattle (199.9)WACA0-032%-5.3
2-17Utah Valley (84.1)WACA0-016%-11.1
2-22UMKC (261.9)WACH0-074%7.0
2-24Chicago St. (336.6)WACH0-094%16.9
3-3New Mexico St. (43.2)WACH0-016%-11.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UT Rio Grande Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


UT Rio Grande Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  UT Rio Grande Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC26.6026.3947.0045.62-1.60-2.31
SeattleWAC2.774.2655.5652.230.310.19
Grand CanyonWAC2.704.2368.4270.010.991.69
New Mexico St.WAC0.334.2283.3383.850.222.86
Chicago St.WAC0.274.200.002.40-0.27-4.00
UMKCWAC2.774.2022.2225.65-1.54-2.04
Utah ValleyWAC2.644.1964.7163.950.781.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.644.1931.2534.38-0.99-1.31
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd5.143.519.0925.26-4.21-1.74
Grambling St.SWAC2.831.9333.3342.10-0.94-0.31
North TexasCUSA2.831.9047.0648.32-0.17-0.06
Texas St.SB2.761.8855.5648.430.31-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd2.761.8546.6749.52-0.18-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB2.641.8457.8960.700.420.39
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.701.8452.9454.370.160.16
RiceCUSA2.701.8411.7618.31-2.06-1.17
Georgia TechACC2.701.8150.0041.140.00-0.32
UC IrvineBW2.501.7931.5841.32-0.92-0.31
HamptonMEAC2.501.7526.6744.84-1.17-0.18
Oklahoma St.B122.571.7566.6752.500.860.09
Texas A&MSEC2.571.7566.6762.770.860.45
SMUAmer2.501.7268.4269.630.920.68
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.3166.6765.390.070.10
UTSACUSA0.470.2841.1839.66-0.08-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.210.265.8819.39-0.19-0.16
UTEPCUSA0.140.2533.3334.10-0.05-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.200.2417.6523.84-0.13-0.13
LamarSlnd0.270.2450.0054.900.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.260.2343.7549.11-0.03-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.140.237.6920.08-0.12-0.14
New OrleansSlnd0.250.2337.5045.24-0.06-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.2052.9452.670.000.01
IdahoBSky0.290.1964.7166.850.080.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.400.197.1414.82-0.34-0.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.200.1956.2556.820.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.1817.6534.76-0.04-0.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.200.1810.0019.62-0.16-0.11
Louisiana MonroeSB0.260.1726.6729.12-0.12-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1628.5731.24-0.06-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.1652.9455.030.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.070.1645.0048.57-0.01-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1590.4888.970.100.12
San DiegoWCC0.130.1563.1657.530.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.159.5217.86-0.05-0.10
ArkansasSEC0.070.1568.4264.160.030.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1525.0039.91-0.07-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.210.1531.5836.23-0.08-0.04
Coastal CarolinaSB0.210.1527.7838.12-0.09-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.210.1583.3381.420.140.09
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.1537.5037.67-0.02-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.070.1566.6765.550.020.05
Kansas St.B120.190.1575.0065.320.100.04
Wichita St.Amer0.190.1578.9577.380.110.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.140.0010.26-0.13-0.12
Cal PolyBW0.260.1423.5328.20-0.14-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.270.1345.0049.28-0.03-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1380.0078.870.090.08
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1362.5058.710.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.1311.1115.30-0.17-0.09
MississippiSEC0.330.1352.6345.860.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.140.1343.7540.91-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.260.1257.8953.280.040.01
GeorgiaSEC0.260.1266.6755.900.090.01
IllinoisB100.060.1245.0043.62-0.01-0.02
UCLAP120.200.1265.0062.050.060.03
ArizonaP120.200.1280.0078.940.120.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1231.5836.43-0.05-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.1268.7564.010.030.03
UC DavisBW0.130.1258.8262.450.020.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.1233.3340.35-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.1247.0654.68-0.000.01
KentuckySEC0.140.1273.6868.040.060.04
USCP120.130.1271.4368.300.050.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.140.1268.4270.820.050.05
UMBCAE0.140.1255.5655.550.020.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1235.2935.540.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.190.1222.2225.19-0.11-0.06
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1244.4450.08-0.010.00
Notre DameACC0.130.1263.1661.000.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1233.3339.89-0.04-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0945.0041.31-0.01-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0926.3230.45-0.07-0.04
BYUWCC0.130.0980.9576.240.080.05
RiderMAAC0.220.0965.0065.330.070.03
DukeACC0.070.0989.4785.240.050.06
Miami FLACC0.070.0977.7870.410.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.150.0915.0020.28-0.10-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0927.7827.11-0.03-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.0916.6724.90-0.09-0.05
WashingtonP120.140.0970.0061.460.050.02
Washington St.P120.140.0947.3741.43-0.01-0.02
South DakotaSum0.130.0973.6872.400.060.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.0972.2272.970.060.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0965.0056.350.020.01
IowaB100.070.0947.6243.94-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.200.0963.1657.870.050.01
VirginiaACC0.140.0994.7486.110.130.06
Boise St.MWC0.130.0978.9576.980.070.05
CharlotteCUSA0.200.0923.5325.63-0.11-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.060.0978.9569.820.040.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0955.0050.370.010.00
OklahomaB120.200.0977.7868.030.110.03
South FloridaAmer0.130.0935.0026.13-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.070.0978.9571.750.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.0970.5969.630.050.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.0868.4259.020.050.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0842.1132.46-0.01-0.03
KansasB120.000.0884.2179.760.000.05
TCUB120.060.0875.0067.830.030.03
West VirginiaB120.130.0880.0076.040.080.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0747.3743.00-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0766.6763.450.020.02
DavidsonA100.000.0658.8261.440.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0629.4134.78-0.03-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0656.2557.430.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.060.008.42-0.15-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5657.250.000.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0671.4374.670.030.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.11-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.99-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0638.8946.05-0.01-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0678.9574.200.040.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
PennIvy0.070.0664.7162.690.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.26-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0647.3746.93-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0642.1143.50-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0626.3231.48-0.03-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0665.0057.890.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0655.0048.980.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0616.6716.15-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.0652.6355.280.010.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.530.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.610.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0672.2274.730.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0641.1839.140.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0661.9065.150.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.140.0678.9576.770.080.03
PurdueB100.000.0690.4888.390.000.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.1460.410.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0636.8432.750.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0641.1838.47-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0647.3742.16-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0661.1164.150.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0652.9452.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0650.0046.270.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.130.0627.7831.08-0.06-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.130.0650.0045.850.00-0.00
TroySB0.130.0638.8944.43-0.03-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0610.0016.77-0.05-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0615.7922.64-0.05-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0617.6527.34-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0617.6519.29-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.0638.8943.36-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.0043.34-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0631.5840.82-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0620.0040.93-0.04-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0689.4785.550.050.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.180.000.03
Florida St.ACC0.070.0673.6869.660.030.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9573.000.000.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0657.8946.220.01-0.00
LSUSEC0.070.0661.1153.190.010.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.150.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.130.0610.5318.34-0.10-0.04
PittsburghACC0.130.0640.0030.88-0.03-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.130.0672.2268.930.060.02
TexasB120.070.0665.0058.600.020.01
TulsaAmer0.070.0655.0053.330.010.00
UCFAmer0.060.0668.4260.830.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0642.1140.460.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
George WashingtonA100.080.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0370.0068.290.030.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0394.7490.310.070.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0364.7160.010.020.01
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.060.060.02
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.78-0.02-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.280.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0361.9063.170.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.71-0.03-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0368.4254.080.030.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5326.29-0.05-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.0344.4446.03-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.76-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0363.6459.480.020.01
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.49-0.01-0.00
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.250.030.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0378.9576.160.040.02
CreightonBE0.060.0375.0070.720.030.01
DenverSum0.060.0333.3336.47-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0357.8966.270.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0327.7829.10-0.03-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0370.5973.150.030.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0385.7182.120.040.02
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0357.1453.040.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0345.0045.47-0.01-0.00
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.710.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0338.8935.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4776.990.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0344.4446.01-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0365.0054.600.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.940.030.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.600.030.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0372.2258.880.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0376.1972.570.030.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.220.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.54-0.03-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.820.020.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0361.1151.910.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0368.4261.280.000.01
TempleAmer0.060.0352.6351.740.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.580.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0370.0060.400.000.01
WoffordSC0.070.0368.7563.660.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.260.020.01
YaleIvy0.070.0341.1847.61-0.01-0.00