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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:261
Current SOS:261
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:8-9
Expected Conf Record:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-7
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:335
Expected OOC SOS:306



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20277.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Tech (105.0)ACCA70-55L0%0.0
11-14Central Michigan (216.0)MACH74-86L0%0.0
11-17Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH95-61W100%0.0
11-20Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH71-78L0%0.0
11-22Southern (320.0)SWACA80-68L0%0.0
11-25Ohio (117.0)MACA68-57L0%0.0
12-1Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA104-85L0%0.0
12-3Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACA74-79W100%0.0
12-10Michigan St. (51.0)B10A71-63L0%0.0
12-13Tennessee (82.0)SECA74-68L0%0.0
12-17Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH79-81L0%0.0
12-19Furman (96.0)SCH62-68L0%0.0
12-22Miami OH (302.0)MACA66-58L0%0.0
12-31SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
1-5Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH76-67W100%0.0
1-7Murray St. (230.0)OVCH71-67W100%0.0
1-10Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA83-78L0%0.0
1-14Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH59-74L0%0.0
1-19Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA74-80W100%0.0
1-21Belmont (61.0)OVCA82-70L0%0.0
1-26Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH76-73W100%0.0
1-28Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH66-79L0%0.0
2-1Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH46-75L0%0.0
2-4Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA68-87W100%0.0
2-9Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH59-72L0%0.0
2-11Belmont (61.0)OVCH83-70W100%0.0
2-18Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA78-79W100%0.0
2-23Morehead St. (200.0)OVCA73-68L0%0.0
2-25Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA75-71L0%0.0
3-1Murray St. (230.0)OVCN84-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC26.3026.3034.7234.72-8.04-8.04
Morehead St.OVC4.164.1642.3142.31-0.64-0.64
BelmontOVC4.154.1580.0080.002.492.49
Jacksonville St.OVC4.124.1256.6756.670.550.55
Tennessee St.OVC4.084.0853.8553.850.310.31
Murray St.OVC4.064.0644.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.004.0029.6329.63-1.63-1.63
LipscombASun3.693.6953.5753.570.260.26
Alabama A&MSWAC3.443.447.417.41-2.93-2.93
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.412.4140.0040.00-0.48-0.48
Tennessee MartinOVC2.402.4060.0060.000.480.48
Austin PeayOVC2.382.3833.3333.33-0.79-0.79
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.292.2918.5218.52-1.44-1.44
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.292.2946.1546.15-0.18-0.18
SouthernSWAC1.861.8641.3841.38-0.32-0.32
OhioMAC1.831.8362.0762.070.440.44
Miami OHMAC1.811.8127.5927.59-0.81-0.81
Georgia TechACC1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
Central MichiganMAC1.751.7544.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.751.7555.1755.170.180.18
TennesseeSEC1.751.7546.6746.67-0.12-0.12
FurmanSC1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
Michigan St.B101.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
Alabama St.SWAC0.280.2823.3323.33-0.15-0.15
Bowling GreenMAC0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.230.2320.0020.00-0.14-0.14
Western MichiganMAC0.220.2248.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.2021.8821.88-0.11-0.11
Kent St.MAC0.190.1961.7661.760.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1887.8887.880.130.13
VanderbiltSEC0.180.1855.8855.880.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.1768.7568.750.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1767.6567.650.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.140.1455.8855.880.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
StetsonASun0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.140.1475.7675.760.070.07
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1476.6776.670.070.07
SamfordSC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
TroySB0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.110.1177.1477.140.060.06
IndianaB100.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.110.1185.2985.290.070.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0929.4129.41-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
NebraskaB100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DetroitHorz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.030.03
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01