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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:248.9
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:329
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:256
Expected OOC SOS:323



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-794.00.02%
20-8105.60.12%
19-9127.30.31%
18-10141.71.12%
17-11160.32.52%
16-12179.25.26%
15-13198.99.07%
14-14220.213.59%
13-15240.617.32%
12-16261.318.23%
11-17280.513.82%
10-18297.19.40%
9-19311.75.51%
8-20324.42.43%
7-21332.80.84%
6-22340.40.34%
5-23344.90.08%
4-24347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC (225.8)P12A70-58L0%0.0
11-22Chattanooga (243.5)SCH69-67W100%0.0
11-24Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH81-62W100%0.0
11-26Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA0-058%2.4
11-30Tulane (236.1)AmerA0-033%-5.3
12-3Lipscomb (238.9)ASunH0-060%2.9
12-13Alabama (63.9)SECA0-08%-17.1
12-16North Florida (204.1)ASunA0-031%-6.1
12-19Tennessee (155.6)SECA0-017%-11.3
12-22UMKC (232.1)WACA0-034%-4.8
12-29North Florida (204.1)ASunH0-054%1.1
1-1Eastern Illinois (281.3)OVCA0-043%-2.3
1-3SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCA0-050%-0.0
1-8Murray St. (133.0)OVCH0-033%-5.2
1-10Austin Peay (300.8)OVCH0-070%6.2
1-15Tennessee Martin (276.9)OVCH0-070%6.4
1-17Southeast Missouri St. (255.2)OVCA0-036%-4.5
1-22Morehead St. (164.2)OVCH0-043%-2.2
1-24Eastern Kentucky (143.5)OVCH0-042%-2.3
1-29Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCA0-055%1.6
1-31Belmont (83.9)OVCA0-012%-14.2
2-7Jacksonville St. (285.6)OVCH0-075%8.1
2-12Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCH0-077%8.7
2-14Jacksonville St. (285.6)OVCA0-053%0.9
2-16East Tennessee St. (157.2)SCA0-028%-7.1
2-21Belmont (83.9)OVCH0-028%-7.0
2-26Morehead St. (164.2)OVCA0-022%-9.4
2-28Eastern Kentucky (143.5)OVCA0-021%-9.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC31.2526.3466.6747.1610.42-1.50
BelmontOVC0.004.3575.0071.300.001.85
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.340.0024.45-0.00-2.22
Morehead St.OVC0.004.3220.0052.36-0.000.20
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.31100.0060.250.000.88
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.2825.0031.03-0.00-1.63
North FloridaASun0.003.7025.0047.46-0.00-0.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd16.673.640.0028.62-16.67-1.55
Austin PeayOVC0.002.570.0032.44-0.00-0.90
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.5025.0044.60-0.00-0.27
Murray St.OVC0.002.4433.3368.55-0.000.91
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.4466.6742.010.00-0.39
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.440.0033.91-0.00-0.78
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.430.0032.18-0.00-0.87
LipscombASun0.002.210.0042.43-0.00-0.33
East Tennessee St.SC0.002.0166.6757.420.000.30
TennesseeSEC0.001.9150.0041.640.00-0.32
ChattanoogaSC16.671.890.0047.80-16.67-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.001.8880.0057.840.000.30
TulaneAmer0.001.8566.6737.410.00-0.46
UMKCWAC0.001.7925.0045.90-0.00-0.15
USCP1216.671.7940.0026.45-3.33-0.84
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.3333.3340.07-0.00-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.3020.0026.30-0.00-0.14
JacksonvilleASun0.000.260.0024.22-0.00-0.14
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2640.0047.10-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.2366.6754.040.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.22100.0052.850.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.210.0023.12-0.00-0.11
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.20100.0079.080.000.12
StetsonASun0.000.200.0032.66-0.00-0.07
SamfordSC0.000.1940.0040.15-0.00-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1966.6749.540.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1940.0050.32-0.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1633.3353.13-0.000.01
ButlerBE2.780.16100.0058.782.780.03
MissouriSEC0.000.1640.0036.72-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1625.0050.46-0.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1640.0033.07-0.00-0.05
KentuckySEC0.000.16100.0089.550.000.12
CincinnatiAmer0.000.16100.0059.140.000.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1533.3354.56-0.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1575.0054.260.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1375.0055.300.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3323.56-0.00-0.07
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0029.35-0.00-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0028.01-0.00-0.06
VMISC0.000.1333.3338.23-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.1380.0076.700.000.07
VCUA100.000.1380.0073.820.000.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1325.0040.73-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0052.730.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1320.0045.09-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1366.6756.780.000.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0081.020.000.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0032.72-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.12100.0047.350.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.1266.6749.780.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0067.350.000.04
UCFAmer0.000.12100.0048.890.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.120.0031.74-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0046.74-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.120.0036.60-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.120.0031.72-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0047.30-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1020.0030.80-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1075.0044.920.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0019.97-0.00-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1033.3345.50-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1066.6762.900.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0022.61-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0933.3350.48-0.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.0975.0059.500.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0975.0055.820.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0960.0056.190.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6760.350.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0933.3344.17-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0950.0035.490.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0067.070.000.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.09100.0053.250.000.01
UCLAP120.000.09100.0065.220.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0042.270.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0050.900.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.850.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0064.97-0.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0725.0037.50-0.00-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6769.270.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0027.54-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0021.34-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0038.35-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0740.0039.52-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0760.0064.290.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0031.23-0.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0725.0029.87-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0081.280.000.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0073.990.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0043.950.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0780.0067.040.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0035.72-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0020.18-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky1.390.07100.0048.941.39-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0065.470.000.02
DenverSum0.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0033.22-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.600.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0042.26-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0057.870.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0075.610.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3326.91-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0057.210.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6771.550.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0079.400.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.0633.3345.79-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0066.91-0.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0660.0057.160.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0675.0070.310.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.25-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0047.31-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0666.6769.740.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0680.0070.940.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.500.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0640.0067.55-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0051.20-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0620.0029.38-0.00-0.03
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0074.680.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.15-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0660.0049.930.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.140.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0675.0059.380.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0675.0050.770.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0055.960.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0660.0054.250.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0069.250.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0085.190.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.45-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0037.60-0.00-0.01
OklahomaB122.080.0666.6756.850.690.01
Oklahoma St.B122.080.06100.0055.112.080.01
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.180.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0666.6744.530.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0065.510.000.02
StanfordP120.000.0680.0070.420.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.060.0067.43-0.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3349.98-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.710.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.06100.0070.870.000.02
Western IllinoisSum2.080.0625.0025.51-1.04-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0031.79-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0053.790.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0466.6761.780.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0475.0047.410.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3346.41-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.560.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.550.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0039.42-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0080.120.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0034.32-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0062.250.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0038.78-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.710.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0320.0031.41-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0020.71-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0037.650.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2929.93-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0375.0053.250.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0375.0050.700.000.00
TroySB0.000.030.0042.64-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0027.00-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.980.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0043.52-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3340.34-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.95-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB102.780.03100.0084.262.780.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6751.550.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6755.870.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3333.84-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0320.0043.52-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0350.0041.110.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0030.040.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0017.79-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0340.0066.55-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.25-0.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0035.37-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.030.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0360.0047.180.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0340.0038.29-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC1.390.0360.0066.000.280.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0350.0025.530.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0075.900.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0069.380.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.71-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW1.390.0325.0033.31-0.69-0.01
DrexelCAA1.390.0320.0035.41-0.83-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.280.000.00
Penn St.B101.390.0383.3348.030.93-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0366.6750.750.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0380.0058.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0375.0061.090.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.10-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3329.16-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0083.950.000.02