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Through games of Feb 9, 2016.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:98.1
Current RPI:101
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:232
Current Record:15-7
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:9-2
Expected Conf Record:12-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:172



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-766.75.15%
19-879.525.36%
18-996.239.46%
17-10116.723.70%
16-11139.15.76%
15-12159.10.56%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Air Force (232.0)MWCA80-70L0%0.0
11-18New Mexico St. (120.1)WACA76-63L0%0.0
11-24Jackson St. (217.3)SWACH86-82W100%0.0
11-27Robert Morris (298.6)NECH85-72W100%0.0
11-29Mississippi Valley St. (323.3)SWACH101-64W100%0.0
12-2East Tennessee St. (123.1)SCH63-61W100%0.0
12-5Lipscomb (272.8)ASunA78-81W100%0.0
12-12Arkansas (101.6)SECA83-57L0%0.0
12-15Chattanooga (41.0)SCA80-69L0%0.0
12-18Miami OH (216.8)MACH77-64W100%0.0
12-22Iowa (7.5)B10A85-63L0%0.0
12-31Eastern Illinois (256.1)OVCH94-84W100%0.0
1-2SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCH86-63W100%0.0
1-7Murray St. (187.7)OVCA65-71W100%0.0
1-9Austin Peay (241.1)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
1-13Tennessee Martin (240.8)OVCA96-90L0%0.0
1-16Southeast Missouri St. (332.3)OVCH91-55W100%0.0
1-21Morehead St. (161.8)OVCA81-74L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Kentucky (198.0)OVCA83-89W100%0.0
1-28Tennessee St. (162.7)OVCH81-79W100%0.0
1-30Belmont (83.7)OVCH89-79W100%0.0
2-6Jacksonville St. (305.0)OVCA58-68W100%0.0
2-10Tennessee St. (162.7)OVCA0-048%-0.5
2-13Jacksonville St. (305.0)OVCH0-088%12.8
2-20Belmont (83.7)OVCA0-029%-6.1
2-25Morehead St. (161.8)OVCH0-061%2.9
2-27Eastern Kentucky (198.0)OVCH0-074%7.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC26.0926.2075.5871.9113.3511.48
BelmontOVC2.874.4969.5768.831.121.69
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.834.4754.1752.910.240.26
Jacksonville St.OVC2.824.4626.0925.70-1.35-2.17
Morehead St.OVC2.824.4547.6250.98-0.130.09
Tennessee St.OVC2.764.4570.0065.591.111.39
Austin PeayOVC2.822.5539.1341.99-0.61-0.41
Tennessee MartinOVC2.722.5145.4548.41-0.25-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.772.5118.1821.42-1.76-1.44
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.772.5142.8645.21-0.40-0.24
Murray St.OVC2.772.5147.6251.58-0.130.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.772.5114.2916.38-1.98-1.69
LipscombASun2.572.1426.0930.35-1.23-0.84
East Tennessee St.SC2.422.0561.9061.540.580.47
ChattanoogaSC2.422.0186.3686.171.761.45
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.472.0120.8323.04-1.44-1.08
Robert MorrisNEC2.421.9529.1731.75-1.01-0.71
Air ForceMWC2.411.9442.8636.25-0.34-0.53
New Mexico St.WAC2.421.9463.6467.440.660.68
Jackson St.SWAC2.371.9452.3856.140.110.24
Miami OHMAC2.371.9236.3634.24-0.65-0.60
ArkansasSEC2.271.8547.8351.54-0.100.06
IowaB102.271.8581.8279.881.451.11
Alabama A&MSWAC0.290.2536.8442.89-0.08-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.200.2321.7423.40-0.11-0.12
SamfordSC0.200.2341.6742.60-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.250.2240.0040.31-0.05-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.240.2228.5733.36-0.10-0.07
StetsonASun0.160.2023.8127.67-0.08-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.150.2028.5731.30-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.150.2079.1774.040.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.240.1975.0076.250.120.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1915.0018.09-0.11-0.12
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1754.1750.940.010.00
Green BayHorz0.200.1754.5556.020.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1771.4369.410.070.06
MarshallCUSA0.150.1650.0051.210.000.00
OhioMAC0.110.1663.6461.420.030.04
The CitadelSC0.200.1631.8230.06-0.07-0.06
WoffordSC0.200.1643.4846.22-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.150.1650.0048.130.00-0.01
MercerSC0.200.1669.5769.020.080.06
DaytonA100.250.1686.9682.300.180.10
Ball St.MAC0.150.1660.8757.190.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1622.7327.22-0.10-0.07
SouthernSWAC0.200.1561.9065.300.050.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1433.3335.06-0.05-0.04
Saint LouisA100.150.1336.3633.54-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.1372.0070.540.090.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1314.2915.46-0.11-0.09
Chicago St.WAC0.100.134.357.72-0.09-0.11
FurmanSC0.150.1354.1754.060.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.150.1358.3360.730.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.1327.2731.05-0.07-0.05
UMKCWAC0.150.1328.5732.73-0.06-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1382.6181.120.130.08
IPFWSum0.190.1370.8368.550.080.05
JacksonvilleASun0.090.1350.0049.830.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.1381.8283.040.060.08
GeorgiaSEC0.190.1359.0955.300.040.01
MarquetteBE0.150.1362.5056.050.040.02
North FloridaASun0.140.1365.2267.130.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.1345.4546.24-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.140.1282.6181.140.090.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1224.0025.67-0.05-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.129.0917.13-0.08-0.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1245.4554.14-0.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1031.5832.01-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1027.7829.16-0.07-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1059.0959.630.030.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1039.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.150.1042.8639.22-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.100.1015.0016.72-0.07-0.06
WyomingMWC0.150.1043.4842.49-0.02-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.150.1050.0045.840.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.1028.5726.98-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1025.0033.22-0.07-0.03
SeattleWAC0.090.1047.6244.99-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0947.6249.35-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0959.0953.250.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0938.1037.68-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0976.1973.420.050.04
NorthwesternB100.140.0964.0062.060.040.02
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6769.490.030.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0914.2920.67-0.07-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0952.1754.170.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0943.4843.78-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0975.0072.610.050.04
DavidsonA100.050.0760.0057.940.010.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0769.5766.580.040.02
Loyola MDPat0.050.0734.7837.17-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0772.7367.630.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0766.6767.700.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.0733.3334.95-0.03-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.100.0752.1751.920.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.100.0756.5257.010.010.01
BaylorB120.100.0672.7366.400.050.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0639.1341.10-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0662.5058.930.010.01
IllinoisB100.100.0645.8344.13-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.0673.9170.050.050.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0654.1751.690.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0652.3850.420.000.00
DenverSum0.100.0654.1751.790.010.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0647.6252.05-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0661.9059.540.010.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0655.0054.530.010.01
NJITASun0.090.0654.1755.280.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.100.0625.0022.73-0.05-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0633.3334.22-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0676.1972.280.050.03
UABCUSA0.050.0682.6179.370.030.04
UNLVMWC0.050.0650.0055.190.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0622.7323.24-0.05-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.050.0647.6249.40-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0652.0048.860.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.410.010.02
NortheasternCAA0.100.0645.8346.64-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0660.0055.500.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0623.8126.56-0.05-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.0652.1751.510.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.3679.110.030.04
Texas TechB120.100.0659.0953.180.020.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0656.5259.860.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0656.5256.990.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.590.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0622.7324.97-0.02-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0642.8642.05-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0669.5766.220.020.02
Michigan St.B100.100.0680.0081.600.060.04
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
PurdueB100.100.0680.0077.930.060.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.0015.34-0.03-0.04
ToledoMAC0.050.0660.8762.040.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.090.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0654.1751.880.010.00
BryantNEC0.090.0625.0026.39-0.05-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0613.0413.55-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0650.0051.920.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0647.8348.87-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.050.0665.2260.260.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0634.7830.33-0.01-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0640.0045.50-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0634.7837.05-0.01-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0637.5043.38-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0650.0049.460.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0678.2677.860.050.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0663.6465.020.010.02
DuquesneA100.090.0660.8756.430.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0352.1751.910.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.820.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0339.1337.81-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0356.5256.320.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.240.020.01
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.150.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0328.5729.65-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0350.0049.790.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.34-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.35-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.050.0331.5837.70-0.02-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.300.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0372.7371.650.020.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.050.030.02
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.580.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.590.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.55-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.490.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.760.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.700.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0372.7372.110.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0330.4331.20-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0314.2924.89-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.71-0.02-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.76-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.200.020.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0387.5086.910.040.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.21-0.03-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.44-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.050.0340.0039.81-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.700.040.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0326.0927.79-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.610.010.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.790.020.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.37-0.03-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.860.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.69-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.720.020.02
WisconsinB100.000.0360.8755.830.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.810.040.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0339.1335.43-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.160.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0372.0071.540.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.57-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.980.020.01
PennIvy0.050.0338.8937.63-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.540.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0343.4840.46-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.660.030.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0333.3333.04-0.02-0.01