Tennessee Tech

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	138.0
Current RPI:	138
Expected SOS:	172
Current SOS:	172
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	10-8
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	128
Expected OOC SOS:	218

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	138.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Miami FL (60.0)	ACC	A	69-58	L	0%
11-19	Appalachian St. (258.0)	SC	H	63-68	L	0%
11-22	High Point (268.0)	BSth	A	57-62	W	100%
11-25	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	H	65-85	L	0%
12-3	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	A	77-67	L	0%
12-7	East Tennessee St. (179.0)	ASun	H	83-74	W	100%
12-10	Lipscomb (225.0)	ASun	H	89-87	W	100%
12-17	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	70-72	W	100%
12-19	West Virginia (57.0)	BE	A	72-53	L	0%
12-22	Kennesaw St. (331.0)	ASun	N	68-81	W	100%
12-23	Bethune Cookman (239.0)	MEAC	N	59-67	W	100%
12-29	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	A	83-68	L	0%
12-31	Tennessee Martin (326.0)	OVC	A	62-85	W	100%
1-5	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	H	92-86	W	100%
1-7	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	H	66-55	W	100%
1-14	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	A	82-74	L	0%
1-19	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	H	62-63	L	0%
1-21	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	H	77-62	W	100%
1-26	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	A	65-82	W	100%
1-28	Morehead St. (166.0)	OVC	A	56-50	L	0%
1-30	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	H	98-80	W	100%
2-2	Austin Peay (193.0)	OVC	A	88-94	W	100%
2-4	Jacksonville St. (216.0)	OVC	A	68-76	W	100%
2-9	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	H	57-74	L	0%
2-11	Tennessee St. (107.0)	OVC	A	68-53	L	0%
2-15	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	H	74-67	W	100%
2-18	Coastal Carolina (182.0)	BSth	A	71-77	W	100%
2-25	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	H	64-69	L	0%
3-1	Southeast Missouri St. (248.0)	OVC	N	77-73	W	100%
3-2	Murray St. (22.0)	OVC	N	78-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee Tech	OVC	26.38	26.38	58.22	58.22	4.34	4.34
Murray St.	OVC	5.72	5.72	96.00	96.00	5.26	5.26
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.20	4.20	60.71	60.71	0.90	0.90
Morehead St.	OVC	4.17	4.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.15	4.15	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.15	4.15	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.09	4.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.07	4.07	30.43	30.43	-1.59	-1.59
Austin Peay	OVC	2.59	2.59	36.67	36.67	-0.69	-0.69
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.56	2.56	7.14	7.14	-2.19	-2.19
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.51	2.51	34.62	34.62	-0.77	-0.77
Lipscomb	ASun	1.99	1.99	41.38	41.38	-0.34	-0.34
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.84	1.84	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.81	1.81	6.90	6.90	-1.56	-1.56
Appalachian St.	SC	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
West Virginia	BE	1.75	1.75	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
High Point	BSth	1.73	1.73	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Miami FL	ACC	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Lamar	Slnd	1.70	1.70	64.52	64.52	0.49	0.49
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	1.67	1.67	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Evansville	MVC	1.67	1.67	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Belmont	ASun	0.30	0.30	78.79	78.79	0.17	0.17
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.28	0.28	60.00	60.00	0.06	0.06
North Florida	ASun	0.25	0.25	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.23	0.23	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.23	0.23	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.23	0.23	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.19	0.19	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Stetson	ASun	0.19	0.19	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Memphis	CUSA	0.17	0.17	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.17	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina	ACC	0.17	0.17	85.29	85.29	0.12	0.12
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
NC Asheville	BSth	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.15	0.15	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	SC	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	83.33	83.33	0.09	0.09
Miami OH	MAC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.14	34.62	34.62	-0.04	-0.04
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	21.88	21.88	-0.06	-0.06
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.93	25.93	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	6.45	6.45	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01