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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:134.0
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:201
Current SOS:201
Current Record:17-11
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:11-6
Expected Conf Record:11-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:180



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11134.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Air Force (226.0)MWCA80-70L0%0.0
11-18New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA76-63L0%0.0
11-24Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH86-82W100%0.0
11-27Robert Morris (291.0)NECH85-72W100%0.0
11-29Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH101-64W100%0.0
12-2East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCH63-61W100%0.0
12-5Lipscomb (269.0)ASunA78-81W100%0.0
12-12Arkansas (133.0)SECA83-57L0%0.0
12-15Chattanooga (50.0)SCA80-69L0%0.0
12-18Miami OH (195.0)MACH77-64W100%0.0
12-22Iowa (28.0)B10A85-63L0%0.0
12-31Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH94-84W100%0.0
1-2SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH86-63W100%0.0
1-7Murray St. (169.0)OVCA65-71W100%0.0
1-9Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA66-72W100%0.0
1-13Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA96-90L0%0.0
1-16Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH91-55W100%0.0
1-21Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA81-74L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA83-89W100%0.0
1-28Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH81-79W100%0.0
1-30Belmont (98.0)OVCH89-79W100%0.0
2-6Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA58-68W100%0.0
2-10Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA85-55L0%0.0
2-13Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH72-70W100%0.0
2-20Belmont (98.0)OVCA95-86L0%0.0
2-25Morehead St. (127.0)OVCH59-69L0%0.0
2-27Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH92-82W100%0.0
3-2Austin Peay (184.0)OVCN72-92L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC26.1926.1964.5564.557.627.62
BelmontOVC4.394.3964.2964.291.251.25
Austin PeayOVC4.374.3748.3948.39-0.14-0.14
Morehead St.OVC4.364.3655.5655.560.480.48
Tennessee St.OVC4.354.3565.3865.381.341.34
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.304.3050.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC4.304.3022.2222.22-2.39-2.39
Tennessee MartinOVC2.572.5753.3353.330.170.17
Murray St.OVC2.542.5453.5753.570.180.18
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.482.4840.7440.74-0.46-0.46
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.452.4522.2222.22-1.36-1.36
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.452.4511.5411.54-1.88-1.88
LipscombASun2.082.0833.3333.33-0.69-0.69
East Tennessee St.SC1.991.9967.7467.740.710.71
ChattanoogaSC1.961.9683.8783.871.331.33
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.961.9623.5323.53-1.04-1.04
Jackson St.SWAC1.891.8954.8454.840.180.18
Robert MorrisNEC1.871.8732.2632.26-0.66-0.66
New Mexico St.WAC1.871.8766.6766.670.620.62
Air ForceMWC1.871.8737.9337.93-0.45-0.45
Miami OHMAC1.841.8438.7138.71-0.42-0.42
ArkansasSEC1.791.7948.3948.39-0.06-0.06
IowaB101.791.7966.6766.670.600.60
SamfordSC0.260.2638.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.2335.7135.71-0.07-0.07
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.2246.4346.43-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.210.2126.6726.67-0.10-0.10
Kennesaw St.ASun0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
IndianaB100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Western CarolinaSC0.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.2014.2914.29-0.14-0.14
EvansvilleMVC0.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Ball St.MAC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
IPFWSum0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
WoffordSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Green BayHorz0.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
TennesseeSEC0.150.1544.1244.12-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
FurmanSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Saint LouisA100.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.08-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.120.123.453.45-0.11-0.11
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
MarquetteBE0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0929.1729.17-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
WyomingMWC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0972.4172.410.040.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
IllinoisB100.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
MichiganB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01