live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:304.6
Current RPI:346
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:334
Current Record:1-6
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:1-6
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:336
Expected OOC SOS:341



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13185.00.05%
15-14194.20.16%
14-15214.80.49%
13-16233.81.70%
12-17251.23.54%
11-18270.28.08%
10-19286.613.68%
9-20300.318.39%
8-21312.619.22%
7-22322.216.04%
6-23330.310.72%
5-24336.25.46%
4-25340.91.80%
3-26344.60.57%
2-27347.20.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Georgia Tech (168.6)ACCA70-55L0%0.0
11-14Central Michigan (157.8)MACH74-86L0%0.0
11-17Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACH95-61W100%0.0
11-20Sam Houston St. (171.2)SlndH71-78L0%0.0
11-22Southern (238.0)SWACA80-68L0%0.0
11-25Ohio (94.7)MACA68-57L0%0.0
12-1Lipscomb (296.4)ASunA104-85L0%0.0
12-3Alabama A&M (350.0)SWACA0-084%12.1
12-10Michigan St. (41.5)B10A0-02%-25.1
12-13Tennessee (165.2)SECA0-013%-13.5
12-17Lipscomb (296.4)ASunH0-059%2.7
12-19Furman (185.5)SCH0-038%-3.6
12-22Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-034%-4.9
12-31SIU Edwardsville (228.3)OVCA0-037%-4.1
1-5Austin Peay (212.5)OVCH0-048%-0.6
1-7Murray St. (139.5)OVCH0-026%-7.6
1-10Southeast Missouri St. (266.5)OVCA0-036%-4.4
1-14Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCH0-045%-1.4
1-19Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCA0-012%-14.3
1-21Belmont (122.5)OVCA0-013%-13.7
1-26Morehead St. (211.9)OVCH0-042%-2.3
1-28Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCH0-041%-2.6
2-1Tennessee Martin (178.1)OVCH0-046%-1.3
2-4Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCA0-030%-6.4
2-9Tennessee St. (93.2)OVCH0-025%-8.1
2-11Belmont (122.5)OVCH0-027%-7.5
2-18Jacksonville St. (187.2)OVCA0-026%-7.6
2-23Morehead St. (211.9)OVCA0-024%-8.5
2-25Eastern Kentucky (174.6)OVCA0-023%-8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC29.5026.3210.3428.89-23.40-11.11
BelmontOVC0.514.2540.0059.85-0.100.84
Morehead St.OVC0.514.2520.0039.94-0.31-0.86
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.1983.3369.440.001.63
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.1442.8645.22-0.00-0.39
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.1457.1446.080.00-0.32
LipscombASun7.143.830.0030.19-7.14-1.52
Alabama A&MSWAC7.143.540.0013.70-7.14-2.57
Austin PeayOVC0.002.4340.0041.27-0.00-0.42
Murray St.OVC0.602.4042.8661.46-0.090.55
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.3475.0054.320.000.20
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.3457.1439.740.00-0.48
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.3450.0037.470.00-0.59
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.3450.0042.460.00-0.35
SouthernSWAC9.051.930.0055.32-9.050.21
OhioMAC9.231.9075.0067.144.610.65
Miami OHMAC0.001.8850.0031.840.00-0.68
Georgia TechACC9.351.8560.0037.641.87-0.46
Sam Houston St.Slnd9.351.8140.0057.01-1.870.25
TennesseeSEC0.001.8125.0032.66-0.00-0.63
Central MichiganMAC7.141.8160.0054.801.430.17
FurmanSC0.001.7220.0048.93-0.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.001.7250.0060.370.000.36
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.3014.2934.56-0.00-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2442.8634.17-0.00-0.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.2433.3343.64-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.240.0024.25-0.00-0.12
MissouriSEC0.600.2150.0045.920.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.2128.5734.18-0.00-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.000.2116.6736.45-0.00-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.210.0032.39-0.00-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.210.0024.77-0.00-0.11
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1950.0052.140.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1928.5730.29-0.00-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1957.1448.860.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.600.1833.3348.71-0.20-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1857.1459.480.000.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1833.3338.20-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1840.0050.91-0.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.180.0042.55-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.600.1875.0064.960.300.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1816.6732.62-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1857.1467.020.000.06
Ball St.MAC0.000.1850.0052.330.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1685.7173.010.000.07
MarshallCUSA0.710.1583.3359.600.480.03
StetsonASun0.000.1528.5728.26-0.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1583.3380.700.000.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1550.0071.330.000.06
AkronMAC0.000.1583.3369.840.000.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1550.0055.850.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1550.0051.820.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1542.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1566.6769.810.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1314.2929.15-0.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1333.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1216.6730.27-0.00-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.000.120.0022.69-0.00-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1214.2928.15-0.00-0.05
TroySB0.000.1233.3332.23-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.1242.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.1214.2931.71-0.00-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1271.4343.020.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1271.4350.570.000.00
DukeACC0.000.1287.5078.680.000.07
IndianaB100.000.1283.3375.060.000.06
IUPUISum0.000.1228.5747.72-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1242.8650.36-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.600.1257.1461.940.090.03
PurdueB100.000.1271.4374.450.000.06
WoffordSC0.000.120.0033.58-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.1260.0067.410.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.1257.1455.810.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.1271.4346.010.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.12100.0086.250.000.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0933.3333.15-0.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0933.3341.52-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.600.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.320.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0985.7155.550.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0983.3362.840.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0966.6770.930.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
BaylorB120.600.09100.0074.460.600.04
IllinoisB100.000.0957.1442.660.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0983.3355.200.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0985.7175.950.000.05
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0966.6754.380.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0950.0043.610.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0971.4366.530.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0625.0053.29-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0037.92-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0660.0043.970.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0020.01-0.00-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0056.71-0.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.510.0685.7180.960.360.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.510.0620.0034.22-0.31-0.02
FordhamA100.510.0657.1443.680.07-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.510.0660.0052.760.100.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0685.7168.390.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0066.170.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
TulaneAmer0.600.0614.2926.81-0.43-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0616.6730.02-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0620.0032.60-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.600.0633.3323.33-0.20-0.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0059.480.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0685.7163.780.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0021.15-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0616.6718.96-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6770.140.000.02
Penn St.B100.600.0662.5043.960.15-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0675.0073.840.000.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
IdahoBSky0.600.0340.0050.88-0.120.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0050.290.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3346.81-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.01-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5750.20-0.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0380.0035.960.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0350.0056.260.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.940.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0360.0070.140.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0371.4363.090.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0314.2937.52-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.310.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.600.0360.0057.900.120.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0350.0062.460.000.01
NavyPat0.000.0328.5743.62-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.600.0366.6770.740.200.01
UCFAmer0.000.0383.3374.620.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0064.840.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.600.0340.0055.44-0.120.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4349.770.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0371.4365.740.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.100.000.01
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0371.4352.370.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.0385.7170.990.000.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0357.1448.240.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0383.3378.430.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8637.60-0.00-0.01