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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:272.8
Current RPI:324
Expected SOS:273
Current SOS:291
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:292
Expected OOC SOS:295



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8116.50.02%
18-9106.80.04%
17-10134.10.18%
16-11155.40.70%
15-12174.21.92%
14-13195.64.04%
13-14216.97.11%
12-15237.712.32%
11-16259.215.48%
10-17278.217.33%
9-18296.515.45%
8-19310.912.23%
7-20323.57.63%
6-21332.93.52%
5-22340.11.46%
4-23344.70.43%
3-24347.00.13%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC (224.1)P12A70-58L0%0.0
11-22Chattanooga (220.3)SCH0-052%0.7
11-26Southeastern Louisiana (266.4)SlndA0-041%-2.8
11-30Tulane (260.2)AmerA0-033%-5.2
12-3Lipscomb (247.5)ASunH0-060%2.9
12-13Alabama (87.6)SECA0-08%-16.7
12-16North Florida (208.4)ASunA0-028%-7.0
12-19Tennessee (165.0)SECA0-015%-12.4
12-22UMKC (167.6)WACA0-022%-9.1
12-29North Florida (208.4)ASunH0-050%0.1
1-1Eastern Illinois (284.8)OVCA0-041%-2.8
1-3SIU Edwardsville (303.2)OVCA0-045%-1.4
1-8Murray St. (115.7)OVCH0-026%-7.6
1-10Austin Peay (310.8)OVCH0-070%6.4
1-15Tennessee Martin (295.0)OVCH0-071%6.6
1-17Southeast Missouri St. (265.6)OVCA0-034%-4.8
1-22Morehead St. (164.4)OVCH0-039%-3.3
1-24Eastern Kentucky (140.4)OVCH0-036%-4.3
1-29Tennessee St. (300.5)OVCA0-048%-0.7
1-31Belmont (85.0)OVCA0-09%-16.2
2-7Jacksonville St. (282.8)OVCH0-068%5.7
2-12Tennessee St. (300.5)OVCH0-070%6.5
2-14Jacksonville St. (282.8)OVCA0-045%-1.5
2-16East Tennessee St. (215.7)SCA0-032%-5.6
2-21Belmont (85.0)OVCH0-023%-9.0
2-26Morehead St. (164.4)OVCA0-019%-10.5
2-28Eastern Kentucky (140.4)OVCA0-017%-11.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC31.2526.300.0039.75-31.25-5.39
BelmontOVC0.004.5150.0071.230.001.91
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.510.0026.70-0.00-2.10
Morehead St.OVC0.004.480.0052.79-0.000.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.47100.0062.560.001.12
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.440.0031.66-0.00-1.63
North FloridaASun0.003.840.0048.16-0.00-0.14
Austin PeayOVC0.002.670.0029.89-0.00-1.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.560.0040.71-0.00-0.48
Murray St.OVC0.002.5350.0072.210.001.12
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.5350.0036.150.00-0.70
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.530.0033.26-0.00-0.85
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.520.0034.36-0.00-0.79
LipscombASun0.002.290.0041.49-0.00-0.39
East Tennessee St.SC0.002.080.0047.73-0.00-0.09
TennesseeSEC0.001.9850.0042.490.00-0.30
ChattanoogaSC0.001.960.0054.72-0.000.18
AlabamaSEC0.001.95100.0054.620.000.18
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.001.920.0040.82-0.00-0.35
TulaneAmer0.001.8850.0032.760.00-0.65
UMKCWAC0.001.8550.0058.350.000.31
USCP1250.001.8533.3324.09-16.67-0.96
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.3433.3338.27-0.00-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.310.0027.11-0.00-0.14
JacksonvilleASun0.000.270.0024.25-0.00-0.14
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2733.3351.38-0.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.24100.0050.220.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.23100.0048.390.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.21100.0071.730.000.09
StetsonASun0.000.210.0032.16-0.00-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.2050.0055.220.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.200.0048.03-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1733.3332.57-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1766.6750.370.000.00
MercerSC0.000.1750.0052.770.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.170.0045.03-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.17100.0054.180.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.17100.0086.080.000.12
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1633.3336.04-0.00-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.000.16100.0064.850.000.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.160.0020.87-0.00-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1466.6752.470.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.1350.0025.820.00-0.07
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0027.74-0.00-0.06
VMISC0.000.1350.0043.730.00-0.02
WoffordSC0.000.1366.6774.980.000.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.130.0028.95-0.00-0.06
MississippiSEC0.000.1366.6760.220.000.03
VCUA100.000.13100.0074.770.000.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1350.0043.330.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.13100.0074.210.000.06
HamptonMEAC0.000.1333.3359.35-0.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.1350.0052.540.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0038.98-0.00-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.1350.0056.600.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0036.560.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1366.6751.090.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.130.0065.36-0.000.04
South FloridaAmer0.000.13100.0044.620.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.100.0027.18-0.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1050.0051.340.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.100.0046.41-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1050.0054.170.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.10100.0068.420.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.10100.0063.410.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0033.43-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1050.0049.490.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1066.6757.590.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1066.6756.820.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1066.6742.560.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.10100.0065.750.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1066.6764.990.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.100.0043.40-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.10100.0045.610.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.10100.0061.850.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.07100.0043.140.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.070.0033.64-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.07100.0050.390.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.07100.0057.620.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0069.29-0.000.03
Portland St.BSky6.250.07100.0051.306.250.00
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0069.310.000.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0031.68-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.070.0016.72-0.00-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0034.26-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0750.0056.300.000.01
IowaB100.000.0750.0067.840.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3330.78-0.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0041.040.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0073.200.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0068.990.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.07100.0043.710.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.07100.0060.570.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0031.91-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0024.22-0.00-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0054.580.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0733.3328.03-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.070.0033.60-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0750.0062.440.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0733.3334.47-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0049.560.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0766.6755.230.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0733.3365.68-0.000.02
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0054.660.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.070.0026.04-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3347.72-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0054.240.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0029.380.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0750.0044.430.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.07100.0076.260.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0666.6766.600.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0041.53-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0076.430.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0045.330.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0062.15-0.000.02
AmericanPat0.000.0666.6764.270.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0675.0073.240.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0075.400.000.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0033.39-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0666.6768.330.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0079.370.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0045.64-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0034.37-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0035.31-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.060.0047.54-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0053.20-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0073.590.000.03
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
StanfordP120.000.06100.0068.290.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0666.6760.730.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6752.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0666.6746.160.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.0666.6770.360.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.460.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0030.14-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.04100.0045.780.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.000.0450.0065.390.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.04100.0066.070.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.040.0038.12-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.04100.0055.810.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.04100.0045.530.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0433.3349.73-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.04100.0084.130.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0044.57-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.39-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0065.630.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0350.0021.230.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0350.0054.250.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0325.0029.11-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.03100.0051.030.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0366.6748.270.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.030.0046.30-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.030.0051.04-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.03100.0057.010.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0028.82-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.640.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0035.570.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3338.44-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.150.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0036.14-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC6.250.0366.6763.582.080.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.030.0015.68-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.03100.0068.970.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0058.420.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0057.810.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0041.690.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA6.250.030.0034.27-6.25-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0034.69-0.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.950.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.67-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0333.3335.37-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.030.0033.17-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0015.85-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0375.0062.010.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0059.230.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0053.870.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0333.3367.72-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0045.55-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0350.0052.770.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.280.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.54-0.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.030.0053.38-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0366.6745.850.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.03100.0064.330.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0066.020.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.000.0333.3327.05-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0034.57-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.03100.0084.100.000.02