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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:215.0
Current RPI:215
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:237
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:217
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16215.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9South Florida (232.0)AmerA72-62L0%0.0
11-12Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH74-69W100%0.0
11-15Texas Pan American (312.0)WACN81-78L0%0.0
11-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA60-62W100%0.0
11-17IPFW (115.0)SumN66-69L0%0.0
11-23Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH63-70L0%0.0
11-27East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunH98-83W100%0.0
11-30Utah Valley (144.0)WACH74-71W100%0.0
12-5Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA87-79L0%0.0
12-7Tennessee (42.0)SECA84-63L0%0.0
12-15Lamar (344.0)SlndA74-79W100%0.0
12-17Green Bay (58.0)HorzA76-49L0%0.0
12-28Utah Valley (144.0)WACA75-66L0%0.0
1-2Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA53-57W100%0.0
1-4Belmont (57.0)OVCA64-62L0%0.0
1-9Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH81-69W100%0.0
1-11SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH64-63W100%0.0
1-18Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH74-83L0%0.0
1-23Murray St. (142.0)OVCA92-53L0%0.0
1-25Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA83-69L0%0.0
1-30Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH68-81L0%0.0
2-1Belmont (57.0)OVCH81-76W100%0.0
2-8Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA60-72W100%0.0
2-13Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH72-66W100%0.0
2-15Morehead St. (141.0)OVCH53-79L0%0.0
2-20Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA83-91W100%0.0
2-22Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH69-57W100%0.0
2-27Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA74-67L0%0.0
3-1Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA84-91W100%0.0
3-5SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCN74-67W100%0.0
3-6Morehead St. (141.0)OVCN76-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC26.3226.3250.3550.350.190.19
Morehead St.OVC5.565.5657.1457.140.790.79
BelmontOVC4.094.0973.3373.331.911.91
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.044.0472.4172.411.811.81
Tennessee St.OVC3.953.9511.1111.11-3.07-3.07
Jacksonville St.OVC3.903.9029.6329.63-1.59-1.59
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.883.8833.3333.33-1.29-1.29
Utah ValleyWAC3.303.3062.9662.960.860.86
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.332.3351.7251.720.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.322.3233.3333.33-0.77-0.77
Austin PeayOVC2.322.3233.3333.33-0.77-0.77
Murray St.OVC2.322.3257.6957.690.360.36
Tennessee MartinOVC2.272.2721.4321.43-1.30-1.30
LipscombASun1.931.9346.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Texas Pan AmericanWAC1.921.9223.3323.33-1.02-1.02
IPFWSum1.831.8366.6766.670.610.61
East Tennessee St.ASun1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
TennesseeSEC1.751.7561.2961.290.390.39
MilwaukeeHorz1.731.7359.3859.380.320.32
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.691.6955.5655.560.190.19
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.691.6930.0030.00-0.68-0.68
Green BayHorz1.691.6976.9276.920.910.91
LamarSlnd1.671.6711.1111.11-1.30-1.30
South FloridaAmer1.611.6135.4835.48-0.47-0.47
Chicago St.WAC0.330.3336.6736.67-0.09-0.09
UMKCWAC0.240.2434.4834.48-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.240.2430.0030.00-0.10-0.10
BradleyMVC0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.220.2227.5927.59-0.10-0.10
IdahoWAC0.220.2245.4545.45-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.220.2273.5373.530.100.10
South DakotaSum0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.210.2167.7467.740.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.190.1913.7913.79-0.14-0.14
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.190.1910.3410.34-0.15-0.15
USC UpstateASun0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1424.0024.00-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.140.1468.9768.970.050.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1430.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
Wichita St.MVC0.130.13100.00100.000.130.13
StetsonASun0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
XavierBE0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1193.1093.100.100.10
ArkansasSEC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
OaklandHorz0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MercerASun0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
North FloridaASun0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0946.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
OregonP120.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DePaulBE0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02