Tennessee Tech

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	242.0
Current RPI:	242
Expected SOS:	198
Current SOS:	198
Current Record:	10-17
Expected Record:	10-17
Current Conf Record:	5-11
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	235
Expected OOC SOS:	306

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-17	242.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	71-69	W	100%
11-17	East Tennessee St. (275.0)	ASun	A	62-65	W	100%
11-20	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	50-62	L	0%
11-28	Loyola Chicago (223.0)	Horz	A	81-78	L	0%
11-30	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	80-64	L	0%
12-6	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	74-68	W	100%
12-8	Gardner Webb (194.0)	BSth	A	61-41	L	0%
12-15	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	58-69	W	100%
12-18	Auburn (252.0)	SEC	A	81-62	L	0%
12-22	Oklahoma St. (27.0)	B12	A	78-42	L	0%
12-29	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	A	83-62	L	0%
1-3	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	66-72	L	0%
1-5	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	52-83	L	0%
1-10	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	73-77	W	100%
1-12	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	58-54	L	0%
1-19	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	74-62	L	0%
1-24	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	H	39-47	L	0%
1-26	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	70-52	W	100%
1-31	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	84-65	L	0%
2-2	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	74-52	L	0%
2-9	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	78-64	W	100%
2-14	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	80-69	L	0%
2-16	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	A	65-63	L	0%
2-21	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	H	83-68	W	100%
2-23	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	68-62	W	100%
2-28	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	54-69	L	0%
3-2	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	72-66	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee Tech	OVC	26.16	26.16	37.17	37.17	-6.71	-6.71
Belmont	OVC	4.56	4.56	78.57	78.57	2.61	2.61
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.52	4.52	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	4.50	4.50	41.38	41.38	-0.78	-0.78
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.47	4.47	68.97	68.97	1.69	1.69
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.38	4.38	58.33	58.33	0.73	0.73
Murray St.	OVC	2.70	2.70	64.29	64.29	0.77	0.77
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.61	2.61	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.58	2.58	25.93	25.93	-1.24	-1.24
Austin Peay	OVC	2.55	2.55	21.43	21.43	-1.46	-1.46
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.52	2.52	36.67	36.67	-0.67	-0.67
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.48	2.48	25.00	25.00	-1.24	-1.24
Lipscomb	ASun	2.16	2.16	35.71	35.71	-0.62	-0.62
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	2.01	2.01	54.84	54.84	0.19	0.19
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	2.00	2.00	20.69	20.69	-1.17	-1.17
Gardner Webb	BSth	1.99	1.99	58.62	58.62	0.34	0.34
Loyola Chicago	Horz	1.97	1.97	44.83	44.83	-0.20	-0.20
East Tennessee St.	ASun	1.92	1.92	30.00	30.00	-0.77	-0.77
Coastal Carolina	BSth	1.91	1.91	44.00	44.00	-0.23	-0.23
Auburn	SEC	1.88	1.88	25.81	25.81	-0.91	-0.91
Evansville	MVC	1.88	1.88	53.33	53.33	0.13	0.13
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.88	1.88	23.33	23.33	-1.00	-1.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.85	1.85	74.19	74.19	0.90	0.90
Valparaiso	Horz	0.30	0.30	78.12	78.12	0.17	0.17
Wright St.	Horz	0.30	0.30	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.24	0.24	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.24	0.24	70.97	70.97	0.10	0.10
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.22	0.22	10.00	10.00	-0.17	-0.17
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.22	0.22	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.20	0.20	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.20	0.20	17.24	17.24	-0.13	-0.13
Western Illinois	Sum	0.19	0.19	71.43	71.43	0.08	0.08
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.19	0.19	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.16	0.16	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Mercer	ASun	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Jacksonville	ASun	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.15	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	AE	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.13	0.13	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Longwood	BSth	0.10	0.10	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
College of Charleston	SC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.06	0.06	18.18	18.18	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.04	0.04	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01