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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Tennessee Tech

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:290.0
Current RPI:290
Expected SOS:283
Current SOS:283
Current Record:10-18
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:4-12
Expected Conf Record:4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:252



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18290.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Tech.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17USC (207.0)P12A70-58L0%0.0
11-22Chattanooga (112.0)SCH69-67W100%0.0
11-24Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH81-62W100%0.0
11-26Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA86-68L0%0.0
11-30Tulane (214.0)AmerA73-68L0%0.0
12-3Lipscomb (271.0)ASunH84-79W100%0.0
12-13Alabama (85.0)SECA65-53L0%0.0
12-15North Florida (162.0)ASunA80-82W100%0.0
12-19Tennessee (96.0)SECA61-58L0%0.0
12-22UMKC (295.0)WACA60-81W100%0.0
12-29North Florida (162.0)ASunH87-84W100%0.0
1-1Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA61-59L0%0.0
1-3SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA85-62L0%0.0
1-8Murray St. (63.0)OVCH67-83L0%0.0
1-10Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH72-56W100%0.0
1-15Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH60-63L0%0.0
1-17Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA65-61L0%0.0
1-22Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH74-78L0%0.0
1-24Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH83-81W100%0.0
1-29Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA64-56L0%0.0
1-31Belmont (105.0)OVCA71-53L0%0.0
2-7Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH72-59W100%0.0
2-12Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH71-52W100%0.0
2-14Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA82-68L0%0.0
2-16East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCA87-79L0%0.0
2-21Belmont (105.0)OVCH82-88L0%0.0
2-26Morehead St. (201.0)OVCA86-73L0%0.0
2-28Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA70-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Tech's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Tech's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Tech.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee TechOVC26.2626.2635.1935.19-7.78-7.78
BelmontOVC4.444.4465.5265.521.381.38
Morehead St.OVC4.384.3843.3343.33-0.58-0.58
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.324.3261.5461.541.001.00
Tennessee St.OVC4.304.307.417.41-3.66-3.66
Jacksonville St.OVC4.244.2433.3333.33-1.41-1.41
North FloridaASun3.733.7368.9768.971.411.41
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.633.6324.1424.14-1.88-1.88
Austin PeayOVC2.522.5222.2222.22-1.40-1.40
Murray St.OVC2.522.5282.7682.761.651.65
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.522.5237.0437.04-0.65-0.65
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.502.5050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC2.462.4655.5655.560.270.27
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.432.4336.0036.00-0.68-0.68
LipscombASun2.232.2340.7440.74-0.41-0.41
East Tennessee St.SC1.991.9948.1548.15-0.07-0.07
TennesseeSEC1.911.9148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC1.881.8868.9768.970.710.71
AlabamaSEC1.871.8753.3353.330.120.12
TulaneAmer1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
UMKCWAC1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
USCP121.791.7935.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Northern KentuckyASun0.330.3339.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.2726.6726.67-0.13-0.13
USC UpstateASun0.270.2763.3363.330.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.250.2534.3834.38-0.08-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.240.2424.1424.14-0.12-0.12
StetsonASun0.240.2421.4321.43-0.14-0.14
VanderbiltSEC0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.206.906.90-0.17-0.17
SamfordSC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1865.5265.520.060.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1852.9452.940.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1740.7440.74-0.03-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
FurmanSC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
MercerSC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
MissouriSEC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
KentuckySEC0.150.15100.00100.000.150.15
ButlerBE0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.140.1476.4776.470.080.08
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
The CitadelSC0.120.1229.6329.63-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
VMISC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.120.1281.2581.250.080.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
HoustonAmer0.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.120.1274.2974.290.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1255.5655.560.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0986.6786.670.070.07
ColoradoP120.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0958.3358.330.010.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.040.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
WashingtonP120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.066.906.90-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
NorthwesternB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
OregonP120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00