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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:134.2
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:211
Current SOS:104
Current Record:4-8
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:28



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-878.02.50%
20-994.310.87%
19-10111.721.75%
18-11129.925.68%
17-12149.120.73%
16-13169.811.48%
15-14190.84.67%
14-15213.31.81%
13-16235.40.42%
12-17265.10.07%
11-18286.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wichita St. (20.0)MVCA71-54L0%0.0
11-18Saint Mary's (114.3)WCCA83-71L0%0.0
11-19Northern Colorado (188.3)BSkyH86-65W100%0.0
11-22UTEP (64.8)CUSAA77-76L0%0.0
11-24Stetson (316.8)ASunH88-68W100%0.0
11-26Florida A&M (349.1)MEACH78-33W100%0.0
11-29Wyoming (74.3)MWCA78-75L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico (101.6)MWCA62-47L0%0.0
12-6UTEP (64.8)CUSAH71-64W100%0.0
12-13Oral Roberts (221.8)SumA86-83L0%0.0
12-17Baylor (11.1)B12A66-55L0%0.0
12-20New Mexico (101.6)MWCH67-69L0%0.0
12-27Colorado St. (34.5)MWCH0-056%1.9
12-30Texas Southern (172.2)SWACH0-085%11.9
1-3UC Irvine (192.7)BWH0-079%9.2
1-10UMKC (275.7)WACH0-088%13.7
1-15Cal St. Bakersfield (321.9)WACA0-074%7.3
1-17Seattle (273.8)WACA0-069%5.8
1-22Grand Canyon (289.3)WACH0-090%15.2
1-24Utah Valley (292.7)WACH0-093%17.3
1-31Texas Pan American (273.8)WACH0-091%15.6
2-5Chicago St. (340.9)WACA0-092%16.4
2-7UMKC (275.7)WACA0-067%5.2
2-12Seattle (273.8)WACH0-089%14.3
2-14Cal St. Bakersfield (321.9)WACH0-091%15.9
2-19Utah Valley (292.7)WACA0-077%8.7
2-21Grand Canyon (289.3)WACA0-072%6.7
2-28Texas Pan American (273.8)WACA0-073%7.0
3-7Chicago St. (340.9)WACH0-098%24.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC28.3426.4430.0063.35-11.347.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.214.2936.3647.32-0.06-0.23
UMKCWAC0.004.2020.0041.80-0.00-0.69
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.2016.6734.32-0.00-1.32
Chicago St.WAC0.004.200.0011.81-0.00-3.21
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.004.1930.0042.16-0.00-0.66
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.1930.0040.30-0.00-0.81
SeattleWAC0.004.1940.0049.08-0.00-0.08
New MexicoMWC8.333.6266.6759.032.780.65
UTEPCUSA8.333.4866.6773.922.781.66
WyomingMWC4.841.9977.7872.622.690.90
Colorado St.MWC0.641.99100.0079.380.641.17
Florida A&MMEAC4.841.910.0012.26-4.84-1.44
StetsonASun4.841.8511.1127.89-3.77-0.82
Northern ColoradoBSky4.791.8442.8659.18-0.680.34
Saint Mary'sWCC4.171.7657.1456.350.600.22
UC IrvineBW0.261.7544.4449.20-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.211.7520.0054.51-0.120.16
BaylorB124.171.7588.8972.573.240.79
Oral RobertsSum4.171.7233.3341.44-1.39-0.30
Wichita St.MVC4.171.7285.7184.562.981.19
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.3450.0055.090.000.04
Idaho St.BSky0.380.3411.1129.44-0.29-0.14
Utah St.MWC0.000.3354.5548.690.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.3327.2729.51-0.00-0.13
San Diego St.MWC0.000.2972.7372.880.000.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2937.5037.29-0.00-0.07
Montana St.BSky0.210.2520.0026.61-0.12-0.12
UTSACUSA0.000.2537.5035.62-0.00-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.000.240.006.54-0.00-0.21
Boise St.MWC0.260.2377.7872.900.140.11
UC DavisBW0.000.2387.5067.460.000.08
UNLVMWC0.000.2066.6750.030.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.2050.0055.800.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1960.0076.800.000.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.380.1936.3637.27-0.10-0.05
South DakotaSum0.000.1933.3343.01-0.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.1850.0042.770.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1870.0059.860.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.380.1880.0076.780.230.10
NevadaMWC0.000.1711.1125.40-0.00-0.09
MontanaBSky0.000.1622.2247.34-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1637.5064.62-0.000.05
CreightonBE0.260.1669.2349.070.10-0.00
ArizonaP120.380.16100.0082.820.380.10
Missouri St.MVC0.210.1533.3337.25-0.07-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.210.1563.6467.200.060.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1518.1830.67-0.00-0.06
DenverSum0.470.1541.6751.30-0.080.00
Kansas St.B120.000.1463.6440.220.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1318.1822.91-0.00-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.000.1325.0034.43-0.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1314.2930.32-0.00-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.210.1337.5044.53-0.05-0.01
WashingtonP120.380.13100.0075.560.380.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1366.6754.450.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1325.0023.65-0.00-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.1350.0042.750.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1354.5545.090.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1230.0029.93-0.00-0.05
PacificWCC0.000.1255.5638.450.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.210.1240.0047.08-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0023.75-0.00-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1250.0051.800.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1228.5761.90-0.000.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1272.7367.570.000.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1250.0041.130.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1216.6726.53-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1237.5027.75-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1218.1837.88-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.1290.0065.820.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.380.120.0026.25-0.38-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.210.110.0034.55-0.21-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1030.0032.35-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.260.1063.6436.240.07-0.03
UtahP120.260.1080.0080.490.160.06
Cal PolyBW0.260.0937.5041.68-0.07-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.260.0933.3346.57-0.09-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0910.0018.51-0.00-0.06
North FloridaASun0.210.0950.0057.910.000.01
IPFWSum0.210.0950.0054.440.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0916.6735.21-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0914.2936.23-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.680.0960.0061.850.140.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.210.0942.8648.12-0.03-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0955.5656.250.000.01
CaliforniaP120.210.0990.9168.430.170.03
San DiegoWCC0.210.0954.5557.750.020.01
ColoradoP120.470.0966.6757.910.160.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0966.6771.560.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.0930.0030.65-0.08-0.03
MissouriSEC0.210.0940.0032.37-0.04-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.000.0990.9190.730.000.07
OklahomaB120.210.0970.0062.800.080.02
IndianaB100.000.0981.8263.040.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0954.5559.550.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.590.0970.0061.360.230.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.210.080.0039.01-0.21-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0780.0068.200.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0051.190.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0680.0072.430.000.03
DrakeMVC0.000.0618.1819.54-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5033.78-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0680.0073.040.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0677.7869.870.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.050.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0660.0061.400.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0633.3328.70-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0677.7858.610.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.0630.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0636.3650.65-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0675.0058.740.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0690.9183.170.000.04
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3343.26-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.940.000.03
DetroitHorz0.260.0640.0047.83-0.05-0.00
TulsaAmer0.470.0660.0056.010.090.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5549.050.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0675.0067.220.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.400.000.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.46-0.00-0.05
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.330.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0677.7878.340.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.820.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0054.280.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0691.6776.600.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0627.2732.26-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0666.6755.760.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0050.570.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0645.4552.17-0.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0612.5026.95-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.500.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0627.2743.96-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.93-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0644.4436.96-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0614.2914.63-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0637.5035.77-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7871.240.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0660.0064.660.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.650.000.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.030.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0675.0063.910.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0618.1820.68-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.240.000.05
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.55-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0630.0028.63-0.00-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0654.5548.910.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0650.0071.160.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0690.0082.040.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.380.0633.3341.93-0.13-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0638.4634.30-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.26-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.380.0620.0045.83-0.23-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0644.4449.08-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.0630.0035.75-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.380.0645.4530.45-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.380.0672.7367.750.170.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.17-0.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.210.0672.7375.960.090.03
Boston CollegeACC0.380.0660.0038.770.08-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.380.060.0016.07-0.38-0.04
George MasonA100.380.0633.3329.75-0.13-0.02
KansasB120.000.0690.0071.080.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.380.0628.5738.37-0.16-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0680.0058.040.000.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0068.320.000.02
TexasB120.000.0690.9180.170.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.400.000.01
USCP120.380.0663.6440.160.10-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.380.0681.8272.960.240.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.260.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0028.78-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.009.03-0.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0616.6743.50-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.069.0917.38-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.260.0370.0052.050.100.00
DavidsonA100.210.0388.8976.830.160.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.660.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.210.0366.6762.820.070.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5053.02-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.260.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0370.0057.400.000.00
Seton HallBE0.260.0381.8263.950.170.01
UCFAmer0.210.0355.5635.910.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.210.0337.5049.56-0.05-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0370.0059.740.000.01
Oregon St.P120.210.0370.0051.560.080.00
St. John'sBE0.260.0388.8965.680.200.01
ClemsonACC0.210.0360.0043.870.04-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0013.95-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0336.3646.70-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3338.20-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0330.0043.77-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.44-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.210.0327.2735.54-0.09-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.17-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.210.0375.0065.050.100.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.0320.0044.35-0.12-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0344.4443.16-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.210.0366.6765.440.070.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.0366.6778.090.070.02
VanderbiltSEC0.210.0366.6758.480.070.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0039.580.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0363.6464.970.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6766.950.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.470.00-0.00