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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:72.0
Current RPI:72
Expected SOS:188
Current SOS:188
Current Record:25-9
Expected Record:25-9
Current Conf Record:15-4
Expected Conf Record:15-4
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:19-3
Current OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC Record:10-5
Expected OOC RPI:41
Expected OOC SOS:46



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-972.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Western Michigan (66.0)MACN64-70L0%0.0
11-9Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCN55-70W100%0.0
11-12Hawaii (160.0)BWA88-95W100%0.0
11-15UTEP (103.0)CUSAH86-73W100%0.0
11-20Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH67-63W100%0.0
11-23UTEP (103.0)CUSAA68-77W100%0.0
11-25Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH79-56W100%0.0
11-27Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH91-60W100%0.0
11-30Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA85-83L0%0.0
12-4New Mexico (12.0)MWCH70-79L0%0.0
12-7Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA80-68L0%0.0
12-11Arizona (2.0)P12A74-48L0%0.0
12-14Drake (174.0)MVCA69-81W100%0.0
12-17New Mexico (12.0)MWCA61-67W100%0.0
12-28South Alabama (280.0)SBH82-64W100%0.0
1-4Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA62-84W100%0.0
1-9Seattle (267.0)WACH96-87W100%0.0
1-11Idaho (238.0)WACH78-54W100%0.0
1-16Chicago St. (259.0)WACA86-81L0%0.0
1-18UMKC (248.0)WACA68-66L0%0.0
1-25Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH90-78W100%0.0
1-30Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH89-86W100%0.0
2-1Utah Valley (144.0)WACH72-49W100%0.0
2-6Idaho (238.0)WACA73-67L0%0.0
2-8Seattle (267.0)WACA77-92W100%0.0
2-13UMKC (248.0)WACH71-48W100%0.0
2-15Chicago St. (259.0)WACH84-55W100%0.0
2-20Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA61-78W100%0.0
2-27Utah Valley (144.0)WACA66-61L0%0.0
3-1Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA57-72W100%0.0
3-6Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH81-57W100%0.0
3-13Seattle (267.0)WACN70-68W100%0.0
3-14Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACN69-63W100%0.0
3-15Idaho (238.0)WACN77-55W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC26.6126.6177.7077.7014.7414.74
IdahoWAC5.325.3246.6746.67-0.35-0.35
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.295.2942.8642.86-0.76-0.76
SeattleWAC5.205.2044.0044.00-0.62-0.62
Utah ValleyWAC3.903.9062.9662.961.011.01
Chicago St.WAC3.863.8635.7135.71-1.10-1.10
UMKCWAC3.853.8533.3333.33-1.28-1.28
Texas Pan AmericanWAC3.843.8427.5927.59-1.72-1.72
Grand CanyonWAC3.823.8250.0050.000.000.00
New MexicoMWC3.053.0583.8783.872.062.06
UTEPCUSA2.972.9772.4172.411.331.33
Colorado St.MWC1.701.7044.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.571.5731.2531.25-0.59-0.59
Western MichiganMAC1.571.5770.0070.000.630.63
DrakeMVC1.571.5748.2848.28-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.541.5417.2417.24-1.01-1.01
Northern ColoradoBSky1.541.5457.1457.140.220.22
GonzagaWCC1.521.5281.2581.250.950.95
HawaiiBW1.521.5264.2964.290.430.43
Tennessee St.OVC1.521.5214.2914.29-1.09-1.09
South AlabamaSB1.491.4929.6329.63-0.61-0.61
ArizonaP121.471.4787.8887.881.111.11
Boise St.MWC0.330.3359.3859.380.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.290.2945.4545.45-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.2845.1645.16-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.260.2622.2222.22-0.14-0.14
Idaho St.BSky0.260.2633.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.2548.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.230.2348.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.230.2330.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Utah St.MWC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
MontanaBSky0.210.2153.5753.570.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.200.2087.1087.100.150.15
Tennessee TechOVC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.200.2024.1424.14-0.10-0.10
NevadaMWC0.180.1846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.130.1367.8667.860.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
UtahP120.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1125.9325.93-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
TulsaCUSA0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
CreightonBE0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
USCP120.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
RiceCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.070.0776.4776.470.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0414.8114.81-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0435.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.040.0453.1253.120.000.00
MassachusettsA100.040.0475.0075.000.020.02
PacificWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0463.3363.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
CaliforniaP120.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
StanfordP120.040.0463.6463.640.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0264.2964.290.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00