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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:120.6
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:200
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:19-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:9-4
Expected OOC RPI:120
Expected OOC SOS:281



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-233.20.05%
24-343.40.34%
23-452.31.86%
22-565.85.54%
21-680.512.09%
20-796.917.93%
19-8114.819.52%
18-9134.518.63%
17-10155.312.60%
16-11176.46.71%
15-12199.33.30%
14-13223.01.16%
13-14241.60.21%
12-15260.00.04%
10-17306.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Colorado St. (97.3)MWCA64-61L0%0.0
11-16Samford (165.0)SCH58-48W100%0.0
11-18New Mexico (89.1)MWCA72-59L0%0.0
11-20Bethune Cookman (340.5)MEACH89-73W100%0.0
11-22Nicholls St. (257.7)SlndH86-74W100%0.0
11-26San Diego (240.5)WCCA51-56W100%0.0
11-30Air Force (168.0)MWCH78-70W100%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (200.9)BWH93-85W100%0.0
12-10New Mexico (89.1)MWCH0-051%0.3
12-13UTEP (289.2)CUSAA0-070%6.2
12-17Arizona St. (161.2)P12A0-044%-1.9
12-19UC Irvine (159.9)BWH0-067%5.4
12-30UTEP (289.2)CUSAH0-085%12.5
1-5UMKC (175.7)WACA0-060%3.0
1-7Chicago St. (275.4)WACA0-080%10.3
1-12Grand Canyon (179.4)WACH0-068%5.6
1-14Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACH0-056%1.8
1-21UMKC (175.7)WACH0-078%9.3
1-26Seattle (265.1)WACA0-069%5.9
1-28Utah Valley (141.7)WACA0-050%-0.1
2-4Chicago St. (275.4)WACH0-092%16.5
2-9Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACA0-035%-4.5
2-11Grand Canyon (179.4)WACA0-048%-0.7
2-18UT Rio Grande Valley (312.5)WACA0-083%11.2
2-23Utah Valley (141.7)WACH0-069%6.1
2-25Seattle (265.1)WACH0-084%12.1
3-4UT Rio Grande Valley (312.5)WACH0-093%17.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC28.2526.5078.5770.1816.1410.70
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.5342.8659.44-0.000.86
UMKCWAC0.004.5355.5651.090.000.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.004.5320.0023.69-0.00-2.38
Chicago St.WAC0.004.5220.0022.73-0.00-2.47
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.5250.0065.780.001.43
SeattleWAC0.004.5216.6740.11-0.00-0.89
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.5257.1459.220.000.83
New MexicoMWC6.253.8757.1456.970.890.54
UTEPCUSA0.003.7720.0036.46-0.00-1.02
Colorado St.MWC6.252.0466.6758.662.080.35
SamfordSC7.481.9571.4358.543.200.33
San DiegoWCC7.481.9542.8632.26-1.07-0.69
Bethune CookmanMEAC7.481.9514.2932.15-5.34-0.70
Nicholls St.Slnd7.421.9550.0038.470.00-0.45
Long Beach St.BW6.251.950.0039.76-6.25-0.40
Air ForceMWC6.251.9566.6749.822.08-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.001.9144.4454.03-0.000.15
Arizona St.P120.001.8555.5637.260.00-0.47
San Diego St.MWC0.390.3860.0069.260.080.15
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.370.0033.71-0.00-0.12
Utah St.MWC0.000.3542.8650.57-0.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.3257.1443.930.00-0.04
UC DavisBW0.000.3050.0045.660.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.000.2977.7870.290.000.12
UNLVMWC0.000.2862.5042.780.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.2725.0029.90-0.00-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.000.260.0031.31-0.00-0.10
Boise St.MWC0.000.2550.0056.890.000.03
NevadaMWC0.000.2577.7871.770.000.11
WyomingMWC0.000.2566.6753.730.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.2242.8641.13-0.00-0.04
BYUWCC0.000.2162.5067.080.000.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2042.8638.35-0.00-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.200.0023.90-0.00-0.10
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1950.0040.690.00-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.390.1925.0043.29-0.20-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.390.1711.1120.27-0.30-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.000.1740.0043.88-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.450.1742.8650.33-0.060.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1760.0062.420.000.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1775.0055.480.000.02
ColoradoP120.450.1675.0062.450.220.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.450.160.0034.54-0.45-0.05
WashingtonP120.350.1657.1452.140.050.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1628.5733.56-0.00-0.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1471.4355.680.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.14100.0076.970.000.08
UCFAmer0.450.1485.7175.800.320.07
North FloridaASun0.000.1412.5034.49-0.00-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.14100.0092.200.000.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0025.17-0.00-0.07
LamarSlnd0.000.1342.8640.38-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1320.0042.14-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.390.1312.5029.77-0.29-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1342.8644.89-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1314.2935.05-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1328.5738.92-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1357.1472.530.000.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1375.0047.520.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1320.0017.37-0.00-0.09
Washington St.P120.000.1342.8629.20-0.00-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.130.0017.16-0.00-0.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.450.130.0022.47-0.45-0.07
PortlandWCC0.000.1357.1450.730.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1325.0040.17-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.1342.8650.82-0.000.00
UCLAP120.740.12100.0086.650.740.09
DenverSum0.000.1042.8645.65-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.1080.0058.220.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.450.1060.0058.900.090.02
Saint LouisA100.390.1025.0023.99-0.20-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1012.5030.51-0.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1033.3331.35-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.350.1088.8977.470.270.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.390.1040.0054.81-0.080.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.390.100.0038.78-0.39-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0076.540.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.450.100.0032.29-0.45-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1083.3379.920.000.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1025.0045.82-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1042.8645.98-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.10100.0089.590.000.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1033.3332.79-0.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.350.0987.5075.690.260.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.51-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0950.0030.320.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0987.5064.760.000.03
StanfordP120.450.0966.6758.600.150.02
USCP120.390.09100.0076.400.390.05
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.72-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0733.3355.64-0.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.650.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0716.6749.78-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0762.5052.060.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0716.6729.83-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.070.0025.31-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0737.5025.74-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0775.0058.720.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0771.4337.680.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0725.0042.78-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0740.0041.72-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0775.0066.090.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0785.7177.000.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0785.7175.250.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.070.0016.33-0.00-0.05
WisconsinB100.000.0777.7876.550.000.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0788.8967.470.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0725.0040.78-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0762.5050.630.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0020.21-0.00-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0725.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0737.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0775.0075.180.000.03
IowaB100.000.0744.4438.41-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0762.5053.550.000.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0775.0056.270.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0787.5075.730.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0060.950.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0737.5050.92-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0762.5066.500.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0775.0070.570.000.03
South DakotaSum0.000.0750.0046.820.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0712.5026.05-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0750.0044.180.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0750.0059.840.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0744.4441.55-0.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0777.7855.180.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0785.7183.250.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0737.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0716.6735.90-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.840.0662.5060.090.210.01
StetsonASun0.450.0625.0026.46-0.22-0.03
AkronMAC0.450.0671.4368.930.190.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0642.8660.66-0.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0675.0074.590.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.60-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.68-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.770.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0042.770.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
VMISC0.000.060.0016.56-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.790.0677.7886.650.440.05
DaytonA100.390.0671.4373.270.170.03
Illinois St.MVC0.390.0660.0067.820.080.02
Virginia TechACC0.390.0685.7162.500.280.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0023.62-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.450.0357.1429.760.06-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.450.0371.4363.080.190.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5061.660.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.390.0328.5731.07-0.17-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.390.0325.0030.02-0.20-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0362.5074.160.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.200.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.390.0344.4436.20-0.04-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
CampbellBSth0.390.0342.8639.64-0.06-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.390.0387.5082.440.290.02
East CarolinaAmer0.450.0370.0050.010.180.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.390.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0337.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.32-0.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.350.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.350.0357.1471.170.050.01
North CarolinaACC0.350.0387.5081.910.260.02
TexasB120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.220.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0333.3352.49-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02