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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:103.0
Current RPI:103
Expected SOS:223
Current SOS:223
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:15-1
Expected Conf Record:15-1
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:18-1
Current OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC Record:6-9
Expected OOC RPI:170
Expected OOC SOS:36



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10103.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA71-54L0%0.0
11-18Saint Mary's (68.0)WCCA83-71L0%0.0
11-19Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH86-65W100%0.0
11-22UTEP (78.0)CUSAA77-76L0%0.0
11-24Stetson (335.0)ASunH88-68W100%0.0
11-26Florida A&M (350.0)MEACH78-33W100%0.0
11-29Wyoming (71.0)MWCA78-75L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico (172.0)MWCA62-47L0%0.0
12-6UTEP (78.0)CUSAH71-64W100%0.0
12-13Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA86-83L0%0.0
12-17Baylor (10.0)B12A66-55L0%0.0
12-20New Mexico (172.0)MWCH67-69L0%0.0
12-27Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH57-58L0%0.0
12-30Texas Southern (120.0)SWACH54-52W100%0.0
1-3UC Irvine (88.0)BWH70-67W100%0.0
1-10UMKC (295.0)WACH63-45W100%0.0
1-15Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACA54-70W100%0.0
1-17Seattle (280.0)WACA58-52L0%0.0
1-22Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH85-63W100%0.0
1-24Utah Valley (308.0)WACH69-44W100%0.0
1-31Texas Pan American (334.0)WACH53-48W100%0.0
2-5Chicago St. (333.0)WACA61-69W100%0.0
2-7UMKC (295.0)WACA63-77W100%0.0
2-12Seattle (280.0)WACH73-47W100%0.0
2-14Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH74-58W100%0.0
2-19Utah Valley (308.0)WACA38-51W100%0.0
2-21Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA55-72W100%0.0
3-4Texas Pan American (334.0)WACA48-69W100%0.0
3-7Chicago St. (333.0)WACH61-57W100%0.0
3-13Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACN57-53W100%0.0
3-14Seattle (280.0)WACN80-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC26.5526.5570.5470.5410.9110.91
SeattleWAC5.665.6650.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.625.6240.7440.74-1.04-1.04
UMKCWAC4.154.1541.3841.38-0.72-0.72
Chicago St.WAC4.084.0818.5218.52-2.57-2.57
Grand CanyonWAC4.084.0855.5655.560.450.45
Utah ValleyWAC4.084.0834.6234.62-1.25-1.25
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.054.0526.9226.92-1.87-1.87
New MexicoMWC3.383.3844.8344.83-0.35-0.35
UTEPCUSA3.253.2570.0070.001.301.30
WyomingMWC1.851.8570.9770.970.780.78
Colorado St.MWC1.851.8580.6580.651.131.13
Florida A&MMEAC1.781.787.147.14-1.53-1.53
StetsonASun1.721.7222.2222.22-0.96-0.96
Northern ColoradoBSky1.721.7248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
UC IrvineBW1.641.6463.3363.330.440.44
Saint Mary'sWCC1.641.6467.8667.860.590.59
Texas SouthernSWAC1.641.6466.6766.670.550.55
BaylorB121.641.6470.9770.970.690.69
Oral RobertsSum1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6186.6786.671.181.18
Utah St.MWC0.340.3456.6756.670.050.05
Fresno St.MWC0.340.3443.3343.33-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.340.3475.7675.760.170.17
Idaho St.BSky0.330.3317.8617.86-0.21-0.21
Nebraska OmahaSum0.330.3339.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.2862.0762.070.070.07
San Jose St.MWC0.240.240.000.00-0.24-0.24
Boise St.MWC0.230.2374.1974.190.110.11
Air ForceMWC0.230.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.220.2279.3179.310.130.13
Montana St.BSky0.220.2220.6920.69-0.13-0.13
UTSACUSA0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
South DakotaSum0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1956.6756.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
HawaiiBW0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1853.1253.120.010.01
MontanaBSky0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.1658.3358.330.030.03
FIUCUSA0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
CreightonBE0.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1422.5822.58-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
WashingtonP120.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
SouthernSWAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
PacificWCC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
CaliforniaP120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1162.9662.960.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1052.9452.940.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0842.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0893.9493.940.070.07
IndianaB100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ColoradoP120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
KansasB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
West VirginiaB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
DuquesneA100.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0671.4371.430.020.02
DePaulBE0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0590.9190.910.040.04
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TexasB120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00