New Mexico St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	55.0
Current RPI:	55
Expected SOS:	116
Current SOS:	116
Current Record:	23-10
Expected Record:	23-10
Current Conf Record:	17-4
Expected Conf Record:	17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-0
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	85
Expected OOC SOS:	15

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-10	55.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Oregon St. (181.0)	P12	A	71-62	L	0%
11-15	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	81-56	W	100%
11-17	Bucknell (51.0)	Pat	N	49-62	L	0%
11-18	Niagara (123.0)	MAAC	A	86-83	L	0%
11-23	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	79-57	W	100%
11-28	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	A	55-54	L	0%
12-1	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	68-60	W	100%
12-4	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	52-58	W	100%
12-15	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	73-58	L	0%
12-19	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	63-68	L	0%
12-22	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	71-51	W	100%
12-29	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	68-47	L	0%
12-31	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	81-72	L	0%
1-3	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	82-62	W	100%
1-5	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	78-67	W	100%
1-10	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	82-83	W	100%
1-12	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	70-71	W	100%
1-17	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	64-51	W	100%
1-19	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	70-53	W	100%
1-23	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	53-42	W	100%
1-31	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	72-86	W	100%
2-2	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	62-75	W	100%
2-7	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	76-74	W	100%
2-9	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	60-57	W	100%
2-14	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	57-67	W	100%
2-16	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	73-69	L	0%
2-23	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	H	55-51	W	100%
3-2	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	66-60	L	0%
3-7	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	78-60	W	100%
3-9	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	69-66	W	100%
3-14	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	N	65-49	W	100%
3-15	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	N	74-65	W	100%
3-16	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	N	64-55	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Mexico St.	WAC	26.64	26.64	73.33	73.33	12.43	12.43
Texas St.	WAC	5.55	5.55	36.67	36.67	-1.48	-1.48
Texas Arlington	WAC	5.54	5.54	62.07	62.07	1.34	1.34
Idaho	WAC	5.52	5.52	42.31	42.31	-0.85	-0.85
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.10	4.10	33.33	33.33	-1.37	-1.37
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.07	4.07	82.76	82.76	2.67	2.67
Denver	WAC	4.07	4.07	71.43	71.43	1.74	1.74
Utah St.	WAC	4.04	4.04	67.86	67.86	1.44	1.44
Seattle	WAC	4.04	4.04	25.93	25.93	-1.94	-1.94
San Jose St.	WAC	3.97	3.97	30.77	30.77	-1.53	-1.53
Texas El Paso	CUSA	3.16	3.16	56.67	56.67	0.42	0.42
New Mexico	MWC	3.11	3.11	84.38	84.38	2.14	2.14
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.71	1.71	74.19	74.19	0.83	0.83
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	1.57	1.57	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.56	1.56	39.29	39.29	-0.34	-0.34
Niagara	MAAC	1.56	1.56	58.06	58.06	0.25	0.25
South Alabama	SB	1.56	1.56	59.26	59.26	0.29	0.29
Bucknell	Pat	1.54	1.54	83.87	83.87	1.04	1.04
Oregon St.	P12	1.54	1.54	41.94	41.94	-0.25	-0.25
Missouri St.	MVC	1.52	1.52	30.00	30.00	-0.61	-0.61
Boise St.	MWC	0.31	0.31	65.52	65.52	0.10	0.10
Houston	CUSA	0.24	0.24	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.23	0.23	17.86	17.86	-0.15	-0.15
North Texas	SB	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.22	0.22	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.21	0.21	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.20	0.20	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.18	0.18	14.81	14.81	-0.12	-0.12
San Diego St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.15	0.15	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.14	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Texas	B12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.10	0.10	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	85.19	85.19	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	CAA	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.04	0.04	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.04	0.04	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.04	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.04	0.04	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01