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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:111.0
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:218
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:14-2
Expected Conf Record:14-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-1
Current OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC Record:7-8
Expected OOC RPI:187
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-10111.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndH91-69W100%0.0
11-15New Mexico (141.0)MWCH74-83L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH76-63W100%0.0
11-21Mississippi Valley St. (330.0)SWACH85-46W100%0.0
11-24Robert Morris (291.0)NECH81-71W100%0.0
11-28Air Force (226.0)MWCA66-64L0%0.0
12-2UTEP (215.0)CUSAH73-59W100%0.0
12-5Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA67-53L0%0.0
12-13Wyoming (187.0)MWCH59-62L0%0.0
12-16New Mexico (141.0)MWCA79-61L0%0.0
12-19UTEP (215.0)CUSAA53-73W100%0.0
12-21Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH76-61W100%0.0
12-23Baylor (25.0)B12A85-70L0%0.0
1-2UC Irvine (75.0)BWA54-52L0%0.0
1-7Utah Valley (272.0)WACA66-78W100%0.0
1-9Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA79-75L0%0.0
1-14UMKC (286.0)WACH65-64W100%0.0
1-16Chicago St. (348.0)WACH80-62W100%0.0
1-21Seattle (287.0)WACA60-68W100%0.0
1-23Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA67-68W100%0.0
1-30UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH92-68W100%0.0
2-4Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH70-50W100%0.0
2-6Utah Valley (272.0)WACH98-74W100%0.0
2-13Chicago St. (348.0)WACA55-69W100%0.0
2-15Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA71-41L0%0.0
2-18Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH63-55W100%0.0
2-20Seattle (287.0)WACH70-57W100%0.0
2-27UMKC (286.0)WACA61-62W100%0.0
3-5UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA44-83W100%0.0
3-11UMKC (286.0)WACN78-64W100%0.0
3-12Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACN54-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC26.5826.5869.9269.9210.5910.59
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.735.7376.9276.923.083.08
UMKCWAC5.645.6436.0036.00-1.58-1.58
SeattleWAC4.194.1946.1546.15-0.32-0.32
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.134.1320.0020.00-2.48-2.48
Chicago St.WAC4.114.113.703.70-3.81-3.81
Utah ValleyWAC4.114.1136.0036.00-1.15-1.15
Grand CanyonWAC4.054.0581.4881.482.552.55
New MexicoMWC3.333.3350.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA3.293.2960.0060.000.660.66
Air ForceMWC1.841.8437.9337.93-0.45-0.45
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC1.811.8123.5323.53-0.96-0.96
WyomingMWC1.801.8037.9337.93-0.43-0.43
Robert MorrisNEC1.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
Long Beach St.BW1.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
UC IrvineBW1.691.6970.9770.970.710.71
Tennessee TechOVC1.691.6962.9662.960.440.44
Oral RobertsSum1.661.6642.8642.86-0.24-0.24
BaylorB121.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Houston BaptistSlnd1.611.6146.4346.43-0.12-0.12
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6173.3373.330.750.75
Utah St.MWC0.350.3548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.290.2971.8871.880.130.13
NevadaMWC0.280.2856.6756.670.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.270.2721.4321.43-0.15-0.15
San Diego St.MWC0.260.2671.8871.880.110.11
UNLVMWC0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.250.2532.1432.14-0.09-0.09
UC RiversideBW0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
South DakotaSum0.230.2340.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.2283.8783.870.150.15
Boise St.MWC0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.200.2074.1974.190.100.10
Portland St.BSky0.200.2037.9337.93-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.2077.4277.420.110.11
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
FIUCUSA0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
IdahoBSky0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
UTSACUSA0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
BYUWCC0.160.1668.7568.750.060.06
HawaiiBW0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
HoustonAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
MinnesotaB100.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
IowaB100.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
DrakeMVC0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.1129.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0911.1111.11-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
TexasB120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
WagnerNEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0714.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0520.8320.83-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0247.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01