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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:59.0
Current RPI:59
Expected SOS:244
Current SOS:244
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:14-3
Expected Conf Record:14-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-1
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:38
Expected OOC SOS:227



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-559.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA64-61L0%0.0
11-16Samford (170.0)SCH58-48W100%0.0
11-18New Mexico (86.0)MWCA72-59L0%0.0
11-20Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH89-73W100%0.0
11-22Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH86-74W100%0.0
11-26San Diego (205.0)WCCA51-56W100%0.0
11-30Air Force (250.0)MWCH78-70W100%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH93-85W100%0.0
12-10New Mexico (86.0)MWCH84-71W100%0.0
12-13UTEP (222.0)CUSAA68-79W100%0.0
12-17Arizona St. (125.0)P12A70-81W100%0.0
12-19UC Irvine (135.0)BWH85-79W100%0.0
12-30UTEP (222.0)CUSAH79-70W100%0.0
1-5UMKC (184.0)WACA64-77W100%0.0
1-7Chicago St. (318.0)WACA62-78W100%0.0
1-12Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH81-69W100%0.0
1-14Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH63-58W100%0.0
1-21UMKC (184.0)WACH94-71W100%0.0
1-26Seattle (287.0)WACA56-71W100%0.0
1-28Utah Valley (206.0)WACA69-74W100%0.0
2-4Chicago St. (318.0)WACH86-51W100%0.0
2-9Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA72-53L0%0.0
2-11Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA83-71L0%0.0
2-18UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA101-107W100%0.0
2-23Utah Valley (206.0)WACH72-84L0%0.0
2-25Seattle (287.0)WACH86-53W100%0.0
3-4UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH107-81W100%0.0
3-9Chicago St. (318.0)WACN67-53W100%0.0
3-10UMKC (184.0)WACN78-60W100%0.0
3-11Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACN60-70W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC26.7126.7185.6185.6119.0219.02
UMKCWAC5.885.8851.8551.850.220.22
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.875.8772.0072.002.582.58
Chicago St.WAC5.825.8211.5411.54-4.48-4.48
Utah ValleyWAC4.364.3642.3142.31-0.67-0.67
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.294.2925.9325.93-2.07-2.07
SeattleWAC4.264.2640.0040.00-0.85-0.85
Grand CanyonWAC4.214.2170.3770.371.711.71
New MexicoMWC3.473.4755.1755.170.360.36
UTEPCUSA3.413.4148.2848.28-0.12-0.12
Colorado St.MWC1.851.8564.5264.520.540.54
UC IrvineBW1.801.8059.3859.380.340.34
Air ForceMWC1.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Long Beach St.BW1.771.7741.9441.94-0.29-0.29
SamfordSC1.751.7554.8454.840.170.17
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.751.7527.5927.59-0.79-0.79
San DiegoWCC1.751.7541.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Nicholls St.Slnd1.751.7538.4638.46-0.40-0.40
Arizona St.P121.671.6746.8846.88-0.10-0.10
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.370.3718.5218.52-0.23-0.23
Fresno St.MWC0.360.3660.0060.000.070.07
San Diego St.MWC0.350.3556.2556.250.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.300.3043.3343.33-0.04-0.04
ArizonaP120.280.2888.2488.240.210.21
UC DavisBW0.280.2862.5062.500.070.07
UC RiversideBW0.240.2422.2222.22-0.14-0.14
WyomingMWC0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.240.2482.3582.350.150.15
UNLVMWC0.240.2434.3834.38-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.230.2338.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.210.2162.0762.070.050.05
BYUWCC0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
Portland St.BSky0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1635.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.150.1573.5373.530.070.07
North FloridaASun0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
WashingtonP120.140.1429.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
UCFAmer0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.1236.0036.00-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.120.1296.9796.970.110.11
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Saint LouisA100.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.110.1187.5087.500.080.08
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
RiceCUSA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
StanfordP120.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
BradleyMVC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
OaklandHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
TroySB0.090.0958.8258.820.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0923.0823.08-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
The CitadelSC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02