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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:124.0
Current RPI:125
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:177
Current Record:14-8
Expected Record:19-9
Current Conf Record:7-1
Expected Conf Record:12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC Record:7-7
Expected OOC RPI:181
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8107.234.82%
19-9125.643.15%
18-10144.318.10%
17-11161.63.58%
16-12179.80.34%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Houston Baptist (198.5)SlndH91-69W100%0.0
11-15New Mexico (90.1)MWCH74-83L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee Tech (107.4)OVCH76-63W100%0.0
11-21Mississippi Valley St. (324.6)SWACH85-46W100%0.0
11-24Robert Morris (304.7)NECH81-71W100%0.0
11-28Air Force (247.0)MWCA66-64L0%0.0
12-2UTEP (244.4)CUSAH73-59W100%0.0
12-5Long Beach St. (102.2)BWA67-53L0%0.0
12-13Wyoming (190.3)MWCH59-62L0%0.0
12-16New Mexico (90.1)MWCA79-61L0%0.0
12-19UTEP (244.4)CUSAA53-73W100%0.0
12-21Oral Roberts (143.4)SumH76-61W100%0.0
12-23Baylor (27.3)B12A85-70L0%0.0
1-2UC Irvine (68.7)BWA54-52L0%0.0
1-7Utah Valley (255.0)WACA66-78W100%0.0
1-9Grand Canyon (100.6)WACA79-75L0%0.0
1-14UMKC (259.4)WACH65-64W100%0.0
1-16Chicago St. (343.1)WACH80-62W100%0.0
1-21Seattle (278.5)WACA60-68W100%0.0
1-23Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACA67-68W100%0.0
1-30UT Rio Grande Valley (339.9)WACH92-68W100%0.0
2-4Grand Canyon (100.6)WACH70-50W100%0.0
2-6Utah Valley (255.0)WACH0-092%15.2
2-13Chicago St. (343.1)WACA0-093%15.8
2-18Cal St. Bakersfield (144.1)WACH0-069%5.4
2-20Seattle (278.5)WACH0-093%15.9
2-27UMKC (259.4)WACA0-070%5.8
3-5UT Rio Grande Valley (339.9)WACA0-093%16.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC26.4926.4864.4469.567.6510.36
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.824.4415.7916.68-1.93-2.96
Grand CanyonWAC4.934.4185.0083.393.452.95
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.764.4168.4271.841.021.92
SeattleWAC2.764.4047.3746.08-0.15-0.35
Chicago St.WAC2.724.394.768.23-2.46-3.66
UMKCWAC2.714.3831.5836.51-1.00-1.18
Utah ValleyWAC2.714.3836.8437.97-0.71-1.05
New MexicoMWC4.703.7060.0061.620.940.86
UTEPCUSA4.603.6455.0053.610.460.26
Air ForceMWC2.632.0540.0032.73-0.53-0.71
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.592.0118.1822.46-1.65-1.11
WyomingMWC2.541.9738.1038.33-0.61-0.46
Robert MorrisNEC2.431.8826.0930.51-1.16-0.73
Tennessee TechOVC2.421.8770.0067.920.970.67
UC IrvineBW2.331.8571.4370.691.000.76
Long Beach St.BW2.321.8540.0049.59-0.46-0.02
Oral RobertsSum2.381.8442.8644.60-0.34-0.20
BaylorB122.271.7975.0066.231.140.58
Houston BaptistSlnd2.271.7958.8252.800.400.10
Utah St.MWC0.320.3747.3749.38-0.02-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.270.3160.0057.290.050.04
San Jose St.MWC0.320.3125.0022.58-0.16-0.17
San Diego St.MWC0.210.3071.4370.810.090.13
UC DavisBW0.270.2936.8434.20-0.07-0.09
Colorado St.MWC0.260.2750.0048.750.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.260.2457.8956.110.040.03
UNLVMWC0.310.2452.3857.440.010.04
Boise St.MWC0.210.2466.6766.030.070.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.260.2359.0959.470.050.04
UC RiversideBW0.230.2247.8343.92-0.01-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.220.2045.4547.97-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.220.2081.8277.490.140.11
Portland St.BSky0.220.2033.3339.27-0.07-0.04
South DakotaSum0.170.2039.1339.48-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.210.1952.1748.790.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.270.1950.0045.730.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.270.1940.0049.74-0.05-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1936.8432.84-0.03-0.07
UTSACUSA0.160.1914.2913.97-0.11-0.14
BYUWCC0.260.1869.5773.030.100.09
Alcorn St.SWAC0.260.1833.3334.18-0.09-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.170.1785.0085.230.120.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1776.1976.220.090.09
HoustonAmer0.210.1672.7368.010.100.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.220.1647.3750.51-0.010.00
MarshallCUSA0.260.1547.8350.56-0.010.00
FIUCUSA0.150.1542.8645.93-0.02-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.200.1563.1666.150.050.05
RiceCUSA0.270.1525.0028.19-0.13-0.07
HawaiiBW0.100.1583.3380.130.070.09
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.1447.6257.27-0.010.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1450.0053.090.000.01
IdahoBSky0.110.1457.1457.940.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.110.1442.1142.70-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1475.0071.280.060.06
LamarSlnd0.120.1333.3332.69-0.04-0.05
MinnesotaB100.110.1326.0927.81-0.05-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1361.9060.410.040.03
Montana St.BSky0.160.1338.1041.23-0.04-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.1326.0925.56-0.02-0.06
Texas St.SB0.160.1341.1840.28-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.160.1381.8278.320.100.07
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1327.7829.23-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1221.7424.60-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.110.1272.7368.840.050.05
Cal PolyBW0.110.1231.5836.16-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1230.0028.61-0.04-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1226.3233.83-0.05-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.1275.0072.220.050.05
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1233.3333.64-0.03-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1223.8128.31-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1250.0056.540.000.02
Washington St.P120.210.1238.1033.45-0.05-0.04
Arizona St.P120.120.1052.1750.240.010.00
IowaB100.110.1081.8279.900.070.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1014.2916.31-0.08-0.07
CaliforniaP120.110.1063.6461.810.030.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1018.1822.83-0.10-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.1068.7574.730.020.05
TCUB120.120.0945.4537.84-0.01-0.02
OaklandHorz0.100.0966.6767.310.030.03
NorthwesternB100.100.0966.6763.480.030.02
OklahomaB120.110.0990.4884.890.090.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.0910.0015.28-0.13-0.06
OregonP120.160.0981.8278.210.100.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.0975.0073.480.080.04
KansasB120.110.0980.9577.000.070.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0938.1047.51-0.04-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.150.0930.0029.46-0.06-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.094.7614.01-0.09-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.060.0733.3332.01-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0722.7324.85-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0780.9575.640.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0742.8641.75-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0721.0529.16-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0768.1869.350.020.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.075.2610.18-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0744.4448.52-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0715.7916.39-0.04-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.060.0723.8125.03-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.060.0768.1862.190.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0768.4271.820.020.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0733.3333.55-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0769.5770.030.020.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0750.0046.870.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0753.3355.180.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0752.3854.240.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0765.0060.810.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0773.6870.400.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0661.9058.190.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0628.5734.73-0.04-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0650.0050.510.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0610.0014.87-0.08-0.04
DePaulBE0.050.0636.3634.95-0.01-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0657.1457.880.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.100.0660.0061.350.020.01
IllinoisB100.050.0647.8344.51-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.100.0673.9170.210.050.03
IUPUISum0.050.0641.6740.25-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0665.2256.530.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0640.9138.03-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0666.6760.120.020.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0680.9583.050.030.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.0618.7526.09-0.07-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0636.3642.19-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0621.0523.70-0.06-0.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0659.0955.550.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0670.0068.920.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0654.5561.950.000.01
TexasB120.050.0668.1861.780.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0661.9054.010.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.100.0665.0068.750.030.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0681.8278.720.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0647.6247.96-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0660.0056.080.020.01
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0673.9176.040.050.03
AuburnSEC0.100.0642.8637.19-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0626.0927.58-0.02-0.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0613.6413.80-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0652.3853.820.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0650.0050.860.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0640.9139.22-0.02-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0641.6746.85-0.02-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.100.0652.1754.140.000.00
PurdueB100.100.0682.6178.230.070.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0631.8235.16-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0634.7841.59-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0647.6249.35-0.00-0.00
USCP120.100.0678.2673.130.060.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0661.9063.360.010.02
DuquesneA100.100.0666.6758.760.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0635.2944.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.71-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0350.0054.850.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0334.7837.55-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0385.7184.560.040.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0357.1457.930.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0338.1042.99-0.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0321.7427.64-0.03-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0318.7533.17-0.04-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0328.5728.88-0.02-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0372.7367.980.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0329.4138.47-0.03-0.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0341.6743.51-0.01-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0310.5325.37-0.05-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0345.0044.39-0.01-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0369.5768.670.020.01
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0385.7176.030.040.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0363.6459.950.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0378.2677.230.030.02
ArmyPat0.050.0354.5556.020.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0372.7366.970.020.01
DukeACC0.050.0372.7369.920.020.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0354.5555.310.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0359.0958.100.010.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0372.7368.630.020.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0335.0031.39-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.350.010.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0381.8276.020.030.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0345.0041.83-0.01-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0331.8226.61-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0340.9140.96-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0321.0524.61-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0331.8232.32-0.02-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0331.5833.51-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0381.8281.010.030.02
UCFAmer0.050.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0352.3856.770.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0373.9173.090.020.01
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0365.0064.310.010.01
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.08-0.02-0.01
PennIvy0.050.0335.2934.69-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0331.8233.75-0.02-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.1751.560.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0326.3236.93-0.02-0.01