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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


New Mexico St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:87.2
Current RPI:119
Expected SOS:157
Current SOS:65
Current Record:1-3
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-2
Current OOC Record:1-3
Expected OOC Record:8-7
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:25



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-420.20.12%
24-526.80.80%
23-635.72.97%
22-744.77.85%
21-856.913.77%
20-971.018.58%
19-1086.619.88%
18-11103.415.92%
17-12123.210.87%
16-13143.95.84%
15-14163.92.31%
14-15186.10.71%
13-16209.70.31%
12-17221.50.04%
11-18243.00.01%
10-19238.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Wichita St. (16.8)MVCA71-54L0%0.0
11-18Saint Mary's (40.9)WCCA83-71L0%0.0
11-19Northern Colorado (218.8)BSkyH86-65W100%0.0
11-22UTEP (85.7)CUSAA77-76L0%0.0
11-24Stetson (312.6)ASunH0-094%19.1
11-26Florida A&M (346.8)MEACH0-099%26.3
11-29Wyoming (69.3)MWCA0-031%-6.1
12-3New Mexico (112.4)MWCA0-040%-2.9
12-6UTEP (85.7)CUSAH0-062%3.8
12-13Oral Roberts (161.1)SumA0-055%1.6
12-17Baylor (29.5)B12A0-020%-10.3
12-20New Mexico (112.4)MWCH0-064%4.3
12-27Colorado St. (72.4)MWCH0-061%3.3
12-30Texas Southern (260.8)SWACH0-092%17.0
1-3UC Irvine (117.3)BWH0-067%5.3
1-10UMKC (176.2)WACH0-080%10.0
1-15Cal St. Bakersfield (306.0)WACA0-081%10.3
1-17Seattle (243.0)WACA0-067%5.2
1-22Grand Canyon (256.1)WACH0-087%13.6
1-24Utah Valley (217.6)WACH0-087%13.3
1-31Texas Pan American (263.6)WACH0-093%18.1
2-5Chicago St. (289.6)WACA0-082%11.1
2-7UMKC (176.2)WACA0-059%2.8
2-12Seattle (243.0)WACH0-085%12.4
2-14Cal St. Bakersfield (306.0)WACH0-093%17.5
2-19Utah Valley (217.6)WACA0-070%6.2
2-21Grand Canyon (256.1)WACA0-070%6.5
2-28Texas Pan American (263.6)WACA0-082%10.9
3-7Chicago St. (289.6)WACH0-094%18.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New Mexico St.WAC37.5026.4625.0068.08-18.759.57
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.2950.0051.870.000.16
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.200.0033.04-0.00-1.43
Chicago St.WAC0.004.200.0026.46-0.00-1.98
UMKCWAC0.004.2033.3357.31-0.000.61
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.004.20100.0032.270.00-1.49
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.2066.6751.570.000.13
SeattleWAC0.004.1933.3351.12-0.000.09
New MexicoMWC0.003.6375.0060.390.000.75
UTEPCUSA12.503.48100.0069.2112.501.34
Colorado St.MWC0.002.00100.0063.260.000.53
WyomingMWC3.122.00100.0070.903.120.84
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.910.0018.88-0.00-1.19
Northern ColoradoBSky12.501.850.0055.14-12.500.19
StetsonASun0.001.850.0033.09-0.00-0.62
Saint Mary'sWCC12.501.76100.0070.7912.500.73
UC IrvineBW0.001.7550.0064.230.000.50
Texas SouthernSWAC0.001.750.0038.20-0.00-0.41
BaylorB120.001.75100.0068.900.000.66
Oral RobertsSum0.001.7233.3349.61-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC12.501.72100.0084.5212.501.19
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.3566.6746.620.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.340.0028.34-0.00-0.15
Utah St.MWC0.000.3375.0057.480.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.330.0033.08-0.00-0.11
San Diego St.MWC0.000.30100.0080.630.000.18
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2950.0046.250.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.2650.0037.430.00-0.06
San Jose St.MWC0.000.250.0017.53-0.00-0.16
Montana St.BSky0.000.250.0023.51-0.00-0.13
Boise St.MWC0.000.2475.0063.040.000.06
UC DavisBW0.000.23100.0042.650.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.2150.0045.890.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.2175.0053.210.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1966.6768.230.000.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1933.3335.92-0.00-0.05
South DakotaSum0.000.190.0042.57-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1933.3349.33-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.180.0028.19-0.00-0.08
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.18100.0052.260.000.01
NevadaMWC0.000.1833.3346.76-0.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.160.0048.00-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.16100.0069.320.000.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1650.0051.860.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.16100.0055.850.000.02
DenverSum3.120.1650.0061.440.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.16100.0051.050.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.150.0037.13-0.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1566.6754.240.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1350.0044.170.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.130.0055.87-0.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1375.0071.100.000.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.130.0044.01-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.13100.0045.790.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1333.3327.11-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1350.0053.430.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.130.0019.17-0.00-0.08
Weber St.BSky0.000.130.0048.20-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.13100.0043.160.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1375.0054.790.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1366.6752.030.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1333.3327.10-0.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.000.13100.0050.420.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1325.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1333.3341.77-0.00-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.12100.0061.830.000.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.120.0024.17-0.00-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.120.0063.44-0.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0031.92-0.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1225.0033.97-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0038.72-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.100.0027.82-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.100.0034.98-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.1050.0063.720.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.10100.0065.140.000.03
UtahP120.000.1066.6769.700.000.04
Cal PolyBW0.000.0950.0037.760.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0933.3354.70-0.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0025.03-0.00-0.05
MemphisAmer3.120.090.0066.25-3.120.03
North FloridaASun0.000.090.0047.13-0.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6749.590.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0950.0029.910.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.000.0966.6760.720.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.090.0040.40-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.090.0057.63-0.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.090.0034.03-0.00-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.0950.0058.120.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0975.0057.060.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0975.0069.830.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.0966.6748.330.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0087.190.000.07
IndianaB100.000.09100.0062.040.000.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0933.3345.85-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0039.15-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0766.6761.350.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0766.6748.850.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.000.07100.0057.540.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0073.660.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.06100.0070.030.000.03
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.550.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0072.860.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.920.000.00
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.810.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.06100.0070.980.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.060.0042.80-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3353.79-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.600.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0044.810.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.06100.0072.420.000.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0633.3340.99-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0080.090.000.04
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0040.91-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.060.0034.07-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0666.6753.050.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.18-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P123.120.0633.3327.58-1.04-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3332.78-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.06100.0056.330.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0650.0053.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.650.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0029.55-0.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.06100.0037.850.00-0.01
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0067.49-0.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.790.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0666.6734.100.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.060.0033.14-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0074.620.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0032.48-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.660.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0062.040.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0033.98-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.760.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0633.3364.19-0.000.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0625.0035.61-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.480.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6760.610.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0046.020.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0625.0019.94-0.00-0.04
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0067.960.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0625.0035.65-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0650.0061.790.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0085.630.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.580.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0072.02-0.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0052.590.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0650.0041.720.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0054.550.000.01
TexasB120.000.06100.0081.740.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.0666.6746.900.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0650.0027.780.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0067.570.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0068.880.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.48-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.030.0046.56-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.030.0031.61-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.030.0047.90-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0049.460.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0046.730.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0033.68-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3344.56-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0325.0051.56-0.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0035.51-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0044.91-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.030.0067.09-0.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0047.840.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00