New Mexico St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	59.0
Current RPI:	59
Expected SOS:	116
Current SOS:	116
Current Record:	24-9
Expected Record:	24-9
Current Conf Record:	13-4
Expected Conf Record:	13-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-1
Current OOC Record:	11-5
Expected OOC Record:	11-5
Expected OOC RPI:	63
Expected OOC SOS:	72

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
24-9	59.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Northern Colorado (262.0)	BSky	A	75-89	W	100%
11-16	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	A	53-62	W	100%
11-19	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	H	89-73	W	100%
11-24	Central Michigan (280.0)	MAC	N	78-49	W	100%
11-25	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	N	72-80	L	0%
11-26	San Francisco (136.0)	WCC	N	71-81	W	100%
11-29	Arizona (79.0)	P12	H	76-83	L	0%
12-4	Southern Mississippi (20.0)	CUSA	A	74-66	L	0%
12-11	Texas El Paso (147.0)	CUSA	A	73-69	L	0%
12-19	Southern (281.0)	SWAC	H	91-66	W	100%
12-21	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	82-62	W	100%
12-28	New Mexico (27.0)	MWC	H	69-89	L	0%
12-31	Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)	SWAC	H	81-65	W	100%
1-2	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	A	72-73	W	100%
1-7	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	A	73-83	W	100%
1-12	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	H	80-60	W	100%
1-14	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	H	80-68	W	100%
1-19	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	A	63-79	W	100%
1-21	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	A	91-87	L	0%
1-26	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	H	60-68	L	0%
1-28	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	H	60-56	W	100%
2-1	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	78-57	W	100%
2-4	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	H	83-72	W	100%
2-9	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	A	59-58	L	0%
2-11	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	A	69-80	W	100%
2-18	Drake (133.0)	MVC	H	71-55	W	100%
2-23	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	H	115-73	W	100%
2-25	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	H	79-68	W	100%
3-1	Nevada (65.0)	WAC	A	65-61	L	0%
3-3	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	A	78-83	W	100%
3-8	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	N	65-49	W	100%
3-9	Hawaii (204.0)	WAC	N	92-81	W	100%
3-10	Louisiana Tech (160.0)	WAC	N	57-82	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Mexico St.	WAC	26.66	26.66	72.85	72.85	12.18	12.18
Louisiana Tech	WAC	5.42	5.42	55.17	55.17	0.56	0.56
Hawaii	WAC	5.29	5.29	48.15	48.15	-0.20	-0.20
Fresno St.	WAC	5.24	5.24	39.29	39.29	-1.12	-1.12
Nevada	WAC	3.95	3.95	78.57	78.57	2.26	2.26
San Jose St.	WAC	3.90	3.90	28.57	28.57	-1.67	-1.67
Idaho	WAC	3.90	3.90	55.56	55.56	0.43	0.43
Utah St.	WAC	3.85	3.85	55.17	55.17	0.40	0.40
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.18	3.18	52.00	52.00	0.13	0.13
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	3.17	3.17	72.41	72.41	1.42	1.42
Texas El Paso	CUSA	3.16	3.16	46.67	46.67	-0.21	-0.21
New Mexico	MWC	3.03	3.03	83.33	83.33	2.02	2.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.68	1.68	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	1.64	1.64	51.85	51.85	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.62	1.62	34.38	34.38	-0.51	-0.51
San Francisco	WCC	1.57	1.57	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.54	1.54	32.00	32.00	-0.56	-0.56
Arizona	P12	1.52	1.52	66.67	66.67	0.51	0.51
Central Michigan	MAC	1.52	1.52	33.33	33.33	-0.51	-0.51
Drake	MVC	1.52	1.52	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Pacific	BW	0.46	0.46	32.14	32.14	-0.16	-0.16
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.37	0.37	75.00	75.00	0.19	0.19
Seattle	ind	0.35	0.35	37.50	37.50	-0.09	-0.09
Boise St.	MWC	0.32	0.32	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.32	0.32	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.31	0.31	36.67	36.67	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.29	0.29	19.23	19.23	-0.18	-0.18
Arizona St.	P12	0.26	0.26	32.26	32.26	-0.09	-0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	37.04	37.04	-0.07	-0.07
Montana	BSky	0.26	0.26	79.31	79.31	0.15	0.15
Portland St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.21	0.21	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado	P12	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
East Carolina	CUSA	0.19	0.19	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.19	0.19	76.47	76.47	0.10	0.10
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.19	0.19	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.19	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.18	0.18	13.33	13.33	-0.13	-0.13
Auburn	SEC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Rice	CUSA	0.17	0.17	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.16	0.16	11.11	11.11	-0.13	-0.13
Weber St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	78.57	78.57	0.09	0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.15	0.15	34.62	34.62	-0.05	-0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.15	0.15	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.15	23.08	23.08	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.15	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.15	0.15	21.43	21.43	-0.08	-0.08
Clemson	ACC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Denver	SB	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	21.88	21.88	-0.07	-0.07
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	GWC	0.12	0.12	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	19.23	19.23	-0.06	-0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
California	P12	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.09	0.09	18.75	18.75	-0.06	-0.06
Lamar	Slnd	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	10.34	10.34	-0.06	-0.06
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	96.43	96.43	0.07	0.07
St. Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	25.93	25.93	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01