New Mexico St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	35.0
Current RPI:	35
Expected SOS:	167
Current SOS:	167
Current Record:	25-5
Expected Record:	25-5
Current Conf Record:	15-2
Expected Conf Record:	15-2
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	27
Expected OOC SOS:	66

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-5	35.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	92-74	L	0%
11-17	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	75-56	W	100%
11-22	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	89-76	W	100%
11-25	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	72-63	W	100%
11-30	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	60-80	W	100%
12-3	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	69-57	W	100%
12-6	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	60-65	L	0%
12-9	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	62-65	W	100%
12-16	Illinois (181.0)	B10	N	69-74	W	100%
12-22	Davidson (47.0)	A10	N	69-68	W	100%
12-23	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	N	54-63	W	100%
12-25	USC (34.0)	P12	N	72-77	L	0%
12-28	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	60-65	W	100%
1-6	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	A	60-97	W	100%
1-11	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	59-70	W	100%
1-13	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	53-66	W	100%
1-18	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	75-62	W	100%
1-20	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	86-59	W	100%
1-27	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	48-73	W	100%
2-3	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	90-67	W	100%
2-8	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	69-43	W	100%
2-10	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	74-70	W	100%
2-15	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	86-79	L	0%
2-17	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	73-63	L	0%
2-22	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	78-67	W	100%
2-24	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	82-58	W	100%
3-3	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	71-86	W	100%
3-8	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	N	97-70	W	100%
3-9	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	N	84-79	W	100%
3-10	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	N	72-58	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Mexico St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Mexico St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Mexico St.	WAC	26.65	26.65	85.00	85.00	18.65	18.65
Grand Canyon	WAC	5.97	5.97	72.41	72.41	2.68	2.68
Seattle	WAC	5.87	5.87	59.26	59.26	1.09	1.09
Chicago St.	WAC	5.79	5.79	3.70	3.70	-5.36	-5.36
Utah Valley	WAC	4.31	4.31	66.67	66.67	1.44	1.44
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	4.28	4.28	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
UMKC	WAC	4.25	4.25	29.63	29.63	-1.73	-1.73
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	4.22	4.22	36.00	36.00	-1.18	-1.18
New Mexico	MWC	3.47	3.47	58.06	58.06	0.56	0.56
UTEP	CUSA	3.38	3.38	35.71	35.71	-0.97	-0.97
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.83	1.83	84.38	84.38	1.26	1.26
San Diego	WCC	1.80	1.80	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Colorado St.	MWC	1.77	1.77	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
UC Irvine	BW	1.75	1.75	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	1.74	1.74	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.72	1.72	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Davidson	A10	1.67	1.67	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Miami FL	ACC	1.67	1.67	73.33	73.33	0.78	0.78
USC	P12	1.67	1.67	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Boise St.	MWC	0.29	0.29	73.33	73.33	0.13	0.13
UC Riverside	BW	0.27	0.27	24.14	24.14	-0.14	-0.14
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.27	0.27	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.24	0.24	62.07	62.07	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.22	0.22	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.22	0.22	17.24	17.24	-0.14	-0.14
BYU	WCC	0.22	0.22	70.59	70.59	0.09	0.09
Fresno St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.21	0.21	53.57	53.57	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	10.34	10.34	-0.16	-0.16
Wyoming	MWC	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.19	0.19	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Washington St.	P12	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SB	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
California	P12	0.16	0.16	25.81	25.81	-0.08	-0.08
Nevada	MWC	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado	P12	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Idaho	BSky	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Idaho St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.13	0.13	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Santa Clara	WCC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.10	-0.10
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.11	0.11	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.11	0.11	76.67	76.67	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	WCC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.11	0.11	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Louisville	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01