Georgia St.

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	209.0
Current RPI:	209
Expected SOS:	225
Current SOS:	225
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	10-8
Expected Conf Record:	10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-8
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	224
Expected OOC SOS:	107

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	209.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Duke (1.0)	ACC	A	74-55	L	0%
11-13	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	80-62	L	0%
11-19	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	62-49	W	100%
11-20	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	59-57	W	100%
11-21	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	75-73	W	100%
11-26	East Carolina (100.0)	CUSA	H	53-62	L	0%
11-30	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	68-86	L	0%
12-2	Liberty (288.0)	BSth	A	66-67	W	100%
12-15	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	57-56	L	0%
12-18	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	67-69	L	0%
12-22	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	A	65-60	L	0%
12-29	Georgia Southern (266.0)	SC	A	68-64	L	0%
1-2	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	H	60-77	L	0%
1-5	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	H	68-52	W	100%
1-7	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	A	52-50	L	0%
1-12	Delaware (141.0)	CAA	H	83-86	L	0%
1-16	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	H	74-58	W	100%
1-19	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	A	54-69	W	100%
1-21	Towson (157.0)	CAA	A	69-71	W	100%
1-23	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	H	81-63	W	100%
1-26	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	A	68-57	L	0%
1-30	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	73-78	W	100%
2-2	Old Dominion (318.0)	CAA	H	83-63	W	100%
2-6	NC Wilmington (301.0)	CAA	A	76-72	L	0%
2-9	Towson (157.0)	CAA	H	82-90	L	0%
2-13	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	61-43	W	100%
2-16	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	60-78	W	100%
2-18	William & Mary (271.0)	CAA	A	75-63	L	0%
2-23	James Madison (182.0)	CAA	A	62-66	W	100%
2-27	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	H	84-90	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Georgia St.	CAA	26.25	26.25	46.48	46.48	-1.85	-1.85
James Madison	CAA	4.24	4.24	62.50	62.50	1.06	1.06
William & Mary	CAA	4.19	4.19	40.74	40.74	-0.78	-0.78
Northeastern	CAA	4.17	4.17	63.33	63.33	1.11	1.11
Hofstra	CAA	4.15	4.15	17.24	17.24	-2.72	-2.72
Drexel	CAA	4.14	4.14	37.93	37.93	-1.00	-1.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	4.11	4.11	29.63	29.63	-1.67	-1.67
Towson	CAA	4.09	4.09	57.14	57.14	0.58	0.58
Old Dominion	CAA	4.08	4.08	17.86	17.86	-2.63	-2.63
George Mason	CAA	2.66	2.66	58.06	58.06	0.43	0.43
Delaware	CAA	2.66	2.66	56.25	56.25	0.33	0.33
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.80	1.80	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.78	1.78	70.97	70.97	0.75	0.75
Monmouth	NEC	1.78	1.78	33.33	33.33	-0.59	-0.59
South Alabama	SB	1.77	1.77	59.26	59.26	0.33	0.33
Troy	SB	1.75	1.75	34.38	34.38	-0.55	-0.55
Liberty	BSth	1.75	1.75	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
East Carolina	CUSA	1.72	1.72	52.00	52.00	0.07	0.07
Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.72	1.72	80.00	80.00	1.03	1.03
Brigham Young	WCC	1.69	1.69	63.33	63.33	0.45	0.45
Rhode Island	A10	1.69	1.69	25.00	25.00	-0.85	-0.85
Duke	ACC	1.69	1.69	83.87	83.87	1.15	1.15
Georgia Southern	SC	1.67	1.67	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
Richmond	A10	0.30	0.30	56.25	56.25	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.28	0.28	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.22	0.22	78.12	78.12	0.12	0.12
Radford	BSth	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.17	0.17	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.17	0.17	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
College of Charleston	SC	0.16	0.16	72.73	72.73	0.07	0.07
Hampton	MEAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland	ACC	0.16	0.16	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Campbell	BSth	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.14	0.14	14.81	14.81	-0.10	-0.10
Vermont	AE	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	81.25	81.25	0.09	0.09
High Point	BSth	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Belmont	OVC	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.11	0.11	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Tulane	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.11	0.11	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.08	0.08	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	70.37	70.37	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01