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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:101.8
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:148
Current SOS:16
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:17-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:87
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-426.70.07%
23-532.80.34%
22-639.31.30%
21-747.13.45%
20-858.38.66%
19-971.712.89%
18-1085.918.51%
17-11102.619.00%
16-12120.215.57%
15-13139.310.72%
14-14158.65.83%
13-15181.22.50%
12-16201.50.77%
11-17225.70.34%
10-18248.70.03%
8-20272.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Auburn (86.4)SECA83-65L0%0.0
11-18Purdue (23.6)B10A64-56L0%0.0
11-22NJIT (186.5)ASunN74-53W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Kentucky (155.6)OVCN65-82W100%0.0
11-30Wright St. (167.7)HorzH81-74W100%0.0
12-4Mississippi St. (155.0)SECA82-60L0%0.0
12-14Alabama A&M (350.1)SWACH0-099%29.6
12-18Old Dominion (102.4)CUSAA0-037%-3.9
12-21Middle Tennessee (51.6)CUSAA0-029%-6.5
12-28Massachusetts (109.7)A10H0-059%2.7
12-31Georgia Southern (191.2)SBA0-058%2.5
1-7South Alabama (149.3)SBH0-071%6.8
1-9Troy (248.5)SBH0-085%12.7
1-14Louisiana Monroe (263.6)SBA0-073%7.5
1-16Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBA0-041%-2.7
1-21Coastal Carolina (218.5)SBH0-077%8.9
1-23Appalachian St. (265.6)SBH0-086%12.8
1-28Troy (248.5)SBA0-070%6.4
1-30South Alabama (149.3)SBA0-052%0.6
2-4Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBH0-062%3.6
2-6Louisiana Monroe (263.6)SBH0-087%13.8
2-11Appalachian St. (265.6)SBA0-071%6.5
2-13Coastal Carolina (218.5)SBA0-059%2.7
2-18UT Arlington (65.7)SBH0-053%1.0
2-20Texas St. (256.5)SBH0-082%11.1
2-25Little Rock (152.6)SBA0-048%-0.7
2-27Arkansas St. (78.4)SBA0-040%-3.2
3-4Georgia Southern (191.2)SBH0-077%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB28.0826.2959.0964.715.117.74
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.4442.8644.36-0.00-0.50
Coastal CarolinaSB0.004.3525.0039.49-0.00-0.91
TroySB0.004.3542.8637.11-0.00-1.12
South AlabamaSB0.004.3471.4358.610.000.75
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.3271.4364.160.001.22
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.3216.6730.59-0.00-1.68
Appalachian St.SB0.004.3116.6730.75-0.00-1.66
UT ArlingtonSB0.002.7262.5068.330.001.00
Arkansas St.SB0.002.7275.0066.320.000.89
Little RockSB0.002.7266.6761.720.000.64
Texas St.SB0.002.7250.0045.170.00-0.26
AuburnSEC9.321.9483.3355.856.210.23
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.001.8887.5075.900.000.97
Alabama A&MSWAC0.001.850.0013.77-0.00-1.34
PurdueB109.391.8575.0076.904.700.99
Old DominionCUSA0.001.8262.5066.630.000.60
Eastern KentuckyOVC8.931.8157.1452.801.280.10
Mississippi St.SEC8.331.8171.4345.713.57-0.16
NJITASun8.801.8150.0053.490.000.13
MassachusettsA100.001.7971.4358.740.000.31
Wright St.Horz8.331.7971.4353.923.570.14
MinnesotaB100.460.2488.8966.920.360.08
MississippiSEC0.000.2475.0047.990.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.2257.1471.170.000.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2257.1449.640.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.2114.2935.05-0.00-0.06
UABCUSA0.600.2150.0059.840.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.2157.1451.740.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1820.0017.37-0.00-0.12
James MadisonCAA0.000.1612.5030.17-0.00-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1662.5060.090.000.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1662.5050.630.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.1550.0044.700.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1550.0066.380.000.05
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1575.0074.590.000.08
VCUA100.000.1575.0072.930.000.07
MarshallCUSA0.520.1562.5053.550.130.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.520.1537.5035.03-0.13-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1557.1451.810.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.1571.4347.690.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1375.0050.980.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.1325.0026.46-0.00-0.06
North FloridaASun1.120.1212.5034.49-0.84-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0017.16-0.00-0.08
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1225.0031.76-0.00-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1250.0045.920.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.74-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.31-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1237.5038.08-0.00-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.460.120.0017.92-0.46-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0060.950.000.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1228.5738.92-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1257.1472.530.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1228.5731.07-0.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.460.1216.6738.87-0.31-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.1233.3331.35-0.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.1262.5044.840.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0971.4362.990.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0912.5033.18-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0942.8650.82-0.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0925.0030.02-0.00-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.600.0944.4441.55-0.07-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0950.0042.770.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.90-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.51-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.0950.0038.730.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0925.0029.90-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0957.1464.500.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0912.5030.51-0.00-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.520.0920.0042.14-0.31-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7169.920.000.04
MercerSC0.000.0942.8647.68-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.520.0937.5047.57-0.13-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0987.5069.040.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0977.7872.930.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.460.0987.5075.690.350.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.520.090.0036.38-0.52-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0975.0070.570.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.520.0920.0035.46-0.31-0.03
Penn St.B100.520.0966.6746.170.17-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0975.0070.350.000.04
South CarolinaSEC0.000.09100.0078.180.000.05
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0955.5646.770.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0966.6770.400.000.04
DukeACC0.000.0790.0080.060.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0714.2942.77-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0722.2226.44-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0728.5723.02-0.00-0.04
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.980.0612.5029.77-0.74-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.200.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0037.700.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0671.4368.930.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0622.2246.51-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.080.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.450.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.11-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0637.5048.85-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8644.89-0.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0637.5037.96-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.0642.8656.48-0.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.05-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0628.5734.49-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0019.08-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6738.83-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.88-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0025.31-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.44-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0662.5071.850.000.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7175.250.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0677.7855.180.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0071.340.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.65-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.770.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.200.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5042.780.00-0.01
USCP120.000.06100.0076.400.000.03
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6753.730.000.00
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.820.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.460.0620.0035.15-0.28-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.930.0642.8650.57-0.130.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0055.480.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.520.0683.3377.290.350.03
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.640.00-0.01
Texas TechB121.120.0687.5061.660.840.01
LehighPat0.520.0637.5061.81-0.130.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.220.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.500.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0671.4365.470.000.02
UCFAmer0.520.0685.7175.800.370.03
George MasonA100.000.0662.5046.490.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.510.000.03
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.41-0.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0657.1456.540.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.090.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0642.8645.34-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.460.0312.5030.11-0.35-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
LafayettePat0.460.0342.8635.40-0.07-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.460.0333.3340.37-0.15-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0320.0022.88-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0333.3336.67-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0050.170.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0337.5025.74-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.520.0350.0064.910.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0058.720.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
IUPUISum0.520.0333.3351.57-0.170.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.830.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0045.82-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2232.01-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.520.0337.5028.47-0.13-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0360.0058.900.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1149.12-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.520.0333.3355.64-0.170.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1120.27-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0022.75-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.590.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0342.8638.35-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.520.0357.1449.420.07-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6735.90-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.520.0350.0056.890.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0020.72-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.920.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0350.0045.130.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.600.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1459.020.000.01
Oregon St.P120.520.0325.0023.62-0.26-0.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0344.4436.20-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0355.5649.660.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.06-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.460.0355.5637.870.05-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.270.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0340.0039.19-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0337.5047.44-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.030.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0342.8645.98-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0377.7859.940.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0357.1450.790.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0325.0023.99-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.460.03100.0084.740.460.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0328.5752.65-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.550.000.02