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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Georgia St.

Conference:CAA
Expected RPI:141.0
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:245
Current SOS:245
Current Record:21-11
Expected Record:21-11
Current Conf Record:12-8
Expected Conf Record:12-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-2
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:328


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-11141.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Washington (71.0)P12A91-74L0%0.0
11-13Portland (238.0)WCCN66-61L0%0.0
11-14Florida Atlantic (207.0)SBN77-84L0%0.0
11-18McNeese St. (174.0)SlndH69-50W100%0.0
11-22Samford (269.0)SCA47-55W100%0.0
11-26Liberty (283.0)BSthH72-50W100%0.0
11-29South Carolina St. (343.0)MEACA54-85W100%0.0
12-1Florida International (251.0)SBH73-47W100%0.0
12-3William & Mary (299.0)CAAH66-34W100%0.0
12-10Rhode Island (257.0)A10H96-64W100%0.0
12-17Utah Valley (230.0)GWCA68-71W100%0.0
12-22Georgia Southern (203.0)SCH72-52W100%0.0
1-2Drexel (64.0)CAAH58-44W100%0.0
1-4Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)CAAA53-55W100%0.0
1-7George Mason (82.0)CAAA61-58L0%0.0
1-12NC Wilmington (214.0)CAAH75-61W100%0.0
1-14Towson (311.0)CAAH57-42W100%0.0
1-18Northeastern (172.0)CAAA60-57L0%0.0
1-21Delaware (153.0)CAAA77-74L0%0.0
1-23James Madison (261.0)CAAH74-58W100%0.0
1-25Drexel (64.0)CAAA68-46L0%0.0
1-28Virginia Commonwealth (38.0)CAAH58-59L0%0.0
2-1NC Wilmington (214.0)CAAA53-68W100%0.0
2-4Hofstra (263.0)CAAA43-59W100%0.0
2-8Northeastern (172.0)CAAH61-59W100%0.0
2-11Delaware (153.0)CAAH77-80L0%0.0
2-14James Madison (261.0)CAAA64-67W100%0.0
2-18Texas San Antonio (196.0)SlndH82-71W100%0.0
2-22Old Dominion (103.0)CAAH60-65L0%0.0
2-25William & Mary (299.0)CAAA60-64W100%0.0
3-2Hofstra (263.0)CAAN85-50W100%0.0
3-3George Mason (82.0)CAAN61-59L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.CAA26.2526.2565.5465.548.168.16
George MasonCAA3.983.9870.9770.971.671.67
DrexelCAA3.963.9683.8783.872.682.68
Virginia CommonwealthCAA3.963.9684.3884.382.722.72
HofstraCAA3.963.9633.3333.33-1.32-1.32
NC WilmingtonCAA3.953.9534.4834.48-1.23-1.23
William & MaryCAA3.933.9317.2417.24-2.58-2.58
NortheasternCAA3.903.9044.8344.83-0.40-0.40
James MadisonCAA3.883.8840.0040.00-0.78-0.78
DelawareCAA3.883.8855.1755.170.400.40
Old DominionCAA2.442.4459.3859.380.460.46
TowsonCAA2.392.393.233.23-2.24-2.24
Florida AtlanticSB1.771.7732.1432.14-0.63-0.63
LibertyBSth1.711.7139.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Rhode IslandA101.711.7123.3323.33-0.91-0.91
Florida InternationalSB1.661.6629.6329.63-0.68-0.68
SamfordSC1.641.6433.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Texas San AntonioSlnd1.641.6455.1755.170.170.17
Georgia SouthernSC1.621.6248.1548.15-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP121.621.6266.6766.670.540.54
PortlandWCC1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
McNeese St.Slnd1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC1.561.5610.7110.71-1.23-1.23
Utah ValleyGWC1.561.5659.2659.260.290.29
HamptonMEAC0.230.2336.3636.36-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckySB0.230.2345.4545.45-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.200.2063.6463.640.050.05
Boston UniversityAE0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
DavidsonSC0.160.1677.4277.420.090.09
FurmanSC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
NC GreensboroSC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
HowardMEAC0.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
VirginiaACC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
South AlabamaSB0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
TroySB0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
The CitadelSC0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
College of CharlestonSC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Virginia Military InstBSth0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
South FloridaBE0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
George WashingtonA100.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
ElonSC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
MarylandACC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
DaytonA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
WinthropBSth0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
PennsylvaniaIvy0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
VermontAE0.100.1067.6567.650.030.03
BradleyMVC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.106.456.45-0.08-0.08
RiderMAAC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Seattleind0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Texas St.Slnd0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Louisiana TechWAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. LouisA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TempleA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MissouriB120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
BrownIvy0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Long IslandNEC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North DakotaGWC0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
North TexasSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Longwoodind0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NevadaWAC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
UtahP120.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LafayettePat0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
OregonP120.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UCLAP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
MonmouthNEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GramblingSWAC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
OaklandSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
HawaiiWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PittsburghBE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Southern MississippiCUSA0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Texas A&MB120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Fresno St.WAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CharlotteA100.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
TexasB120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
XavierA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0365.3865.380.010.01
BelmontASun0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
New HampshireAE0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00