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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:180.0
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:177
Current SOS:177
Current Record:14-14
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:9-12
Expected Conf Record:9-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:45



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-14180.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-25Mississippi (96.0)SECA68-59L0%0.0
11-27IUPUI (189.0)SumH78-72W100%0.0
12-1UAB (88.0)CUSAA64-57L0%0.0
12-4Wright St. (146.0)HorzA46-59W100%0.0
12-12Old Dominion (140.0)CUSAH68-64W100%0.0
12-19Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAA46-66W100%0.0
12-22Middle Tennessee (78.0)CUSAH64-62W100%0.0
12-30UT Arlington (105.0)SBA85-70L0%0.0
1-2Texas St. (238.0)SBA46-58W100%0.0
1-7Troy (293.0)SBH72-68W100%0.0
1-9South Alabama (240.0)SBH70-55W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH65-51W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH54-87L0%0.0
1-19Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH69-66W100%0.0
1-21Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA76-67L0%0.0
1-28Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA75-69L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA63-53L0%0.0
2-4Texas St. (238.0)SBH59-56W100%0.0
2-6UT Arlington (105.0)SBH69-90L0%0.0
2-11South Alabama (240.0)SBA79-78L0%0.0
2-13Troy (293.0)SBA54-53L0%0.0
2-18Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH49-57L0%0.0
2-20Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH69-61W100%0.0
2-23Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA54-52L0%0.0
2-27Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH83-70W100%0.0
3-3Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA69-72W100%0.0
3-5Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA91-78L0%0.0
3-10Texas St. (238.0)SBN61-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB26.5426.5450.8850.880.470.47
Texas St.SB6.486.4846.1546.15-0.50-0.50
South AlabamaSB4.924.9237.9337.93-1.19-1.19
UT ArlingtonSB4.864.8666.6766.671.621.62
Arkansas Little RockSB4.834.8386.2186.213.493.49
Louisiana MonroeSB4.824.8258.6258.620.830.83
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.814.8151.8551.850.180.18
TroySB4.794.7922.2222.22-2.66-2.66
Georgia SouthernSB4.784.7840.7440.74-0.89-0.89
Appalachian St.SB4.714.7127.5927.59-2.11-2.11
Arkansas St.SB4.704.7029.6329.63-1.91-1.91
Southern MissCUSA1.991.9926.9226.92-0.92-0.92
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.991.9973.3373.330.930.93
UABCUSA1.961.9680.0080.001.181.18
MississippiSEC1.911.9161.2961.290.430.43
Old DominionCUSA1.911.9164.7164.710.560.56
IUPUISum1.841.8440.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Wright St.Horz1.791.7962.5062.500.450.45
Louisiana TechCUSA0.320.3270.0070.000.130.13
UTEPCUSA0.300.3056.2556.250.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
RiceCUSA0.290.2933.3333.33-0.10-0.10
Western KentuckyCUSA0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.240.2413.3313.33-0.18-0.18
CharlotteCUSA0.230.2342.4242.42-0.03-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.230.2351.5251.520.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.2022.5822.58-0.11-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
AuburnSEC0.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.150.1526.9226.92-0.07-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MemphisAmer0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
TexasB120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Washington St.P120.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TulaneAmer0.090.0935.2935.29-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
BelmontOVC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0982.1482.140.060.06
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0920.8320.83-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
FordhamA100.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01