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Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:146.5
Current RPI:134
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:155
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:6-6
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC RPI:23
Expected OOC SOS:53



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-882.50.31%
18-996.22.26%
17-10112.511.08%
16-11130.925.11%
15-12149.029.95%
14-13166.121.65%
13-14184.27.58%
12-15203.21.96%
11-16223.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-25Mississippi (113.4)SECA68-59L0%0.0
11-27IUPUI (178.2)SumH78-72W100%0.0
12-1UAB (88.6)CUSAA64-57L0%0.0
12-4Wright St. (157.3)HorzA46-59W100%0.0
12-12Old Dominion (139.5)CUSAH68-64W100%0.0
12-19Southern Miss (296.0)CUSAA46-66W100%0.0
12-22Middle Tennessee (78.7)CUSAH64-62W100%0.0
12-30UT Arlington (99.6)SBA85-70L0%0.0
1-2Texas St. (282.4)SBA46-58W100%0.0
1-7Troy (291.4)SBH72-68W100%0.0
1-9South Alabama (256.7)SBH70-55W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBH65-51W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBH54-87L0%0.0
1-19Georgia Southern (250.4)SBH69-66W100%0.0
1-21Appalachian St. (259.9)SBA76-67L0%0.0
1-28Arkansas St. (239.2)SBA75-69L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas Little Rock (49.3)SBA63-53L0%0.0
2-4Texas St. (282.4)SBH59-56W100%0.0
2-6UT Arlington (99.6)SBH69-90L0%0.0
2-11South Alabama (256.7)SBA0-060%2.9
2-13Troy (291.4)SBA0-059%2.6
2-18Arkansas Little Rock (49.3)SBH0-028%-6.2
2-20Arkansas St. (239.2)SBH0-075%7.3
2-23Georgia Southern (250.4)SBA0-057%1.8
2-27Appalachian St. (259.9)SBH0-078%8.5
3-3Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBA0-020%-9.0
3-5Louisiana Monroe (173.3)SBA0-036%-3.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB26.4326.5158.4458.024.464.25
South AlabamaSB3.644.9635.0035.25-1.09-1.46
TroySB3.644.9625.0027.19-1.82-2.26
Georgia SouthernSB3.644.8942.1140.30-0.58-0.95
Appalachian St.SB3.474.8722.7327.00-1.89-2.24
UT ArlingtonSB5.974.8765.0069.261.791.88
Arkansas Little RockSB3.464.8690.0086.992.773.60
Arkansas St.SB3.464.8640.0037.50-0.69-1.22
Louisiana MonroeSB3.464.8645.0047.43-0.35-0.25
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.454.8555.5659.510.380.92
Texas St.SB5.954.8541.1840.57-1.05-0.92
Southern MissCUSA2.812.0733.3333.25-0.94-0.69
UABCUSA2.812.0581.8278.681.791.17
Middle TennesseeCUSA2.812.0475.0072.001.400.90
MississippiSEC2.761.9860.8757.550.600.30
Old DominionCUSA2.821.9559.0964.910.510.58
IUPUISum2.691.9241.6741.14-0.45-0.34
Wright St.Horz2.631.8559.0959.050.480.34
Louisiana TechCUSA0.440.3271.4368.750.190.12
North TexasCUSA0.370.3233.3333.07-0.12-0.11
RiceCUSA0.370.3228.5729.66-0.16-0.13
UTEPCUSA0.450.2952.1751.940.020.01
UTSACUSA0.330.2313.6413.63-0.24-0.17
MarshallCUSA0.180.2250.0051.190.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.180.2245.4546.21-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.360.2234.7840.89-0.11-0.04
FIUCUSA0.250.1940.9145.29-0.04-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.250.1922.7327.18-0.13-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.1925.0030.04-0.09-0.08
AuburnSEC0.240.1939.1335.44-0.05-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.180.1663.6462.150.050.04
MemphisAmer0.300.1658.3359.360.050.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.210.1417.6529.03-0.13-0.06
AlabamaSEC0.190.1360.8755.970.040.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.130.1338.1037.70-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.130.1354.5554.970.010.01
SamfordSC0.130.1341.6742.61-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.170.1354.1751.780.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.120.1259.0961.310.020.03
MissouriSEC0.120.1233.3330.27-0.04-0.05
TexasB120.180.1266.6762.210.060.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1050.0054.190.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.120.1022.7323.25-0.07-0.05
BelmontOVC0.130.1068.0066.660.050.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.0973.9174.700.080.05
South FloridaAmer0.120.0920.0019.76-0.07-0.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.0950.0049.050.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.130.0936.0034.92-0.04-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.120.0917.6526.58-0.08-0.04
Seton HallBE0.120.0970.8368.100.050.03
LSUSEC0.120.0962.5059.050.030.02
South DakotaSum0.110.0941.6741.24-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.170.0912.0011.96-0.13-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0972.2275.620.050.05
Miami FLACC0.070.0782.6177.520.050.04
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0727.7834.45-0.03-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0756.5257.280.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.140.079.0917.14-0.11-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.0776.1972.310.070.03
UCLAP120.070.0756.5253.270.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.140.0714.2915.45-0.10-0.05
Washington St.P120.140.0736.3631.98-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.070.0775.0071.800.030.03
StetsonASun0.070.0723.8127.73-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.070.0731.8230.05-0.02-0.03
WinthropBSth0.070.0765.0063.440.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.120.0645.4549.69-0.01-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0640.0042.85-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0673.9168.480.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0644.0045.35-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0686.9686.650.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0621.7422.74-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0633.3334.01-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.110.0647.6245.85-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0641.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.110.0654.5556.010.010.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.8367.980.030.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.065.007.22-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.060.0665.2260.580.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.0659.0959.650.020.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.0027.23-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.0013.14-0.05-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0633.3335.05-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0668.0067.990.020.02
OregonP120.060.0682.6179.250.040.04
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0046.760.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0669.5770.070.020.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.3920.66-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0647.8350.01-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.060.0660.8755.300.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0666.6764.730.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0681.8283.030.040.04
West VirginiaB120.060.0679.1778.060.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.120.0673.9174.060.060.03
Miami OHMAC0.110.0634.7833.05-0.03-0.02
George MasonA100.110.0633.3333.70-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.110.0675.0072.630.060.03
FordhamA100.120.0652.3850.750.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.0615.0018.11-0.08-0.04
IPFWSum0.050.0670.8368.590.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0658.3358.480.010.01
Ohio St.B100.120.0660.0055.540.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0639.1341.11-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0627.7829.16-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.110.0680.0077.960.070.03
FloridaSEC0.110.0666.6766.330.040.02
FurmanSC0.060.0654.1754.080.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0659.0955.220.010.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0665.2264.230.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.7836.51-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0669.5769.040.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0683.3378.400.040.03
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0350.0052.380.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0368.1865.160.020.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0360.8762.080.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0365.2266.190.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0350.0045.820.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0331.8230.15-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0360.0057.640.010.00
XavierBE0.060.0387.5081.860.040.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0328.5733.35-0.02-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.160.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8368.990.020.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.040.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0345.8344.11-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0354.1750.990.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0350.0049.600.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0324.0024.17-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.40-0.03-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.920.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0337.5037.41-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0347.6245.00-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.32-0.04-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0352.0048.860.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.060.0356.5257.000.010.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.25-0.05-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.26-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.90-0.04-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0324.0024.57-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
Rhode IslandA100.060.0358.3357.220.010.00
RichmondA100.060.0356.5255.730.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0383.3381.320.040.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.370.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0075.330.000.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0365.2259.750.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0358.3359.960.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0371.4369.840.020.01