live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:96.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:173
Current SOS:54
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-219.00.01%
25-322.20.12%
24-430.40.56%
23-536.91.80%
22-646.04.46%
21-754.98.77%
20-867.613.97%
19-981.416.46%
18-1097.517.68%
17-11113.014.87%
16-12131.310.47%
15-13149.75.98%
14-14169.32.92%
13-15188.41.26%
12-16203.70.43%
11-17223.70.19%
10-18266.00.03%
8-20258.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rice (260.0)CUSAA54-75W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi (78.4)SECA77-72L0%0.0
11-20Eastern Washington (169.9)BSkyN0-069%6.1
11-26Tulane (133.8)AmerH0-063%4.1
11-29Alabama A&M (341.8)SWACA0-095%19.5
12-4Liberty (192.4)BSthH0-076%8.5
12-9Montana (169.4)BSkyH0-073%7.2
12-16Dayton (77.6)A10A0-031%-6.0
12-20Massachusetts (194.1)A10A0-053%0.9
12-23Chattanooga (248.9)SCA0-072%7.1
12-29South Alabama (232.0)SBA0-064%4.4
12-31Troy (191.8)SBA0-057%2.2
1-4Little Rock (252.9)SBH0-085%12.5
1-6Arkansas St. (221.5)SBH0-081%10.3
1-11Appalachian St. (278.0)SBA0-075%8.1
1-13Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBA0-058%2.5
1-20Georgia Southern (105.3)SBH0-064%4.2
1-25UT Arlington (69.5)SBH0-053%0.9
1-27Texas St. (221.0)SBH0-079%9.5
2-1Arkansas St. (221.5)SBA0-064%4.3
2-3Little Rock (252.9)SBA0-071%6.5
2-8Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBH0-067%5.2
2-10Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBH0-079%9.8
2-16Georgia Southern (105.3)SBA0-044%-1.8
2-22Texas St. (221.0)SBA0-062%3.5
2-24UT Arlington (69.5)SBA0-034%-5.1
3-1Troy (191.8)SBH0-075%8.2
3-3South Alabama (232.0)SBH0-081%10.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB33.3326.3270.0068.0413.339.49
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.45100.0065.930.001.42
Texas St.SB0.004.3733.3347.290.00-0.24
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.37100.0072.670.001.98
South AlabamaSB0.004.3733.3347.180.00-0.25
TroySB0.004.3433.3347.350.00-0.23
Arkansas St.SB0.004.3433.3343.070.00-0.60
Little RockSB0.004.340.0038.150.00-1.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.172.7650.0060.190.000.56
Appalachian St.SB0.002.730.0028.860.00-1.15
Coastal CarolinaSB0.002.7333.3347.890.00-0.12
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.7333.3347.920.00-0.11
RiceCUSA25.001.9150.0037.760.00-0.47
TulaneAmer0.001.85100.0054.740.000.18
MassachusettsA100.001.8550.0042.000.00-0.30
DaytonA100.001.8466.6761.900.000.44
MississippiSEC25.001.82100.0052.2025.000.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.8233.3352.340.000.09
MontanaBSky0.001.8250.0061.350.000.41
Alabama A&MSWAC0.001.790.0023.210.00-0.96
ChattanoogaSC0.001.790.0039.410.00-0.38
LibertyBSth0.001.7933.3362.100.000.43
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1933.3357.840.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1966.6746.830.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.190.0034.600.00-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.190.0021.380.00-0.11
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.180.0023.910.00-0.10
UTSACUSA0.000.1633.3338.350.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.1675.0048.770.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.16100.0078.750.000.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1650.0035.330.00-0.05
George MasonA100.000.1575.0048.930.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1566.6728.760.00-0.06
La SalleA100.000.1575.0051.210.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.15100.0051.080.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1325.0035.000.00-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.130.0042.670.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.130.0024.970.00-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.130.0024.440.00-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1333.3338.880.00-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.000.13100.0048.130.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.130.0033.930.00-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1333.3327.100.00-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.130.0032.130.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1350.0036.640.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.120.0036.830.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.120.0035.610.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1266.6766.590.000.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.12100.0061.320.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.12100.0071.180.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0050.670.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1250.0073.230.000.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.100.0025.140.00-0.05
MercerSC0.000.1075.0076.250.000.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.100.0056.560.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0044.130.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0042.810.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.100.0039.740.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0046.080.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.1033.3350.350.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.10100.0062.630.000.02
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0060.370.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.090.0032.770.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0966.6753.670.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.090.0044.500.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3347.970.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.090.0023.260.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0925.0050.070.000.00
MaineAE0.000.090.0013.450.00-0.07
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0975.0058.930.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.09100.0070.080.000.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0026.180.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.090.0029.880.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0966.6742.170.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0975.0071.830.000.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.090.0047.180.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.090.0046.000.00-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.09100.0082.290.000.06
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6767.320.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0966.6753.390.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.09100.0047.670.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0966.6750.670.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0933.3336.170.00-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0037.120.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.090.0044.630.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0966.6759.540.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0051.410.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.070.0043.690.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0733.3347.540.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.070.0017.060.00-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0016.000.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0046.150.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.070.0055.380.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0068.280.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd4.170.070.0022.92-4.17-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.07100.0069.350.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.070.0031.380.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.07100.0065.580.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0766.6763.230.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0048.070.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.060.0040.830.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3341.010.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.060.0028.170.00-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.980.00-0.03
StanfordP120.000.0675.0049.860.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3330.460.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.06100.0064.720.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.060.0051.690.000.00
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.0650.0046.810.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0666.6766.020.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0057.360.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0650.0043.710.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0039.640.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC8.330.0650.0052.380.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
UtahP120.000.06100.0067.160.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.06100.0044.740.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0048.410.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0633.3341.220.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0034.730.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.060.0035.760.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0042.850.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.060.0033.520.00-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.06100.0052.950.000.00
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6745.880.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0650.0054.450.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.970.00-0.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.06100.0056.600.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.06100.0048.350.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0050.360.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.06100.0053.240.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.03
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6768.790.000.01
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0023.170.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0366.6774.120.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0350.0050.570.000.00
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0059.870.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0366.6756.400.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0064.910.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.030.0045.040.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
WagnerNEC0.000.0366.6749.940.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0056.360.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0046.080.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0061.710.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0366.6761.500.000.01
TexasB120.000.03100.0063.830.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0061.780.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3354.200.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.03100.0048.790.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0325.0032.490.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0042.730.00-0.00