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Through games of Dec 16, 2017.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:161.6
Current RPI:231
Expected SOS:234
Current SOS:319
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:274



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-548.00.01%
23-666.10.10%
22-778.10.69%
21-891.81.85%
20-9106.85.49%
19-10122.710.66%
18-11138.616.04%
17-12155.719.43%
16-13173.417.63%
15-14190.314.23%
14-15208.48.20%
13-16223.73.83%
12-17242.21.39%
11-18259.30.43%
10-19277.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Rice (305.4)CUSAA54-75W100%0.0
11-17Mississippi (154.8)SECA77-72L0%0.0
11-20Eastern Washington (194.8)BSkyN50-68W100%0.0
11-22Prairie View A&M (213.3)SWACN56-71L0%0.0
11-26Tulane (127.6)AmerH70-59W100%0.0
11-29Alabama A&M (348.3)SWACA53-63W100%0.0
12-4Liberty (157.6)BSthH74-77L0%0.0
12-9Montana (179.1)BSkyH71-68W100%0.0
12-16Dayton (110.4)A10A88-83L0%0.0
12-20Massachusetts (162.1)A10A0-035%-4.5
12-23Chattanooga (232.2)SCA0-061%3.4
12-29South Alabama (256.8)SBA0-062%3.5
12-31Troy (199.7)SBA0-046%-1.3
1-4Little Rock (308.3)SBH0-090%15.4
1-6Arkansas St. (279.7)SBH0-082%11.0
1-11Appalachian St. (215.9)SBA0-048%-0.6
1-13Coastal Carolina (182.6)SBA0-045%-1.4
1-20Georgia Southern (98.0)SBH0-050%0.1
1-25UT Arlington (71.2)SBH0-042%-2.5
1-27Texas St. (252.6)SBH0-076%8.5
2-1Arkansas St. (279.7)SBA0-065%4.6
2-3Little Rock (308.3)SBA0-078%9.1
2-8Louisiana Lafayette (119.2)SBH0-051%0.1
2-10Louisiana Monroe (251.8)SBH0-081%10.5
2-16Georgia Southern (98.0)SBA0-030%-6.3
2-22Texas St. (252.6)SBA0-057%2.1
2-24UT Arlington (71.2)SBA0-023%-8.8
3-1Troy (199.7)SBH0-067%5.1
3-3South Alabama (256.8)SBH0-080%9.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB27.6926.2758.1460.264.515.39
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.2866.6768.650.001.60
UT ArlingtonSB0.314.2070.0071.870.121.84
South AlabamaSB0.004.2050.0040.810.00-0.77
Texas St.SB0.004.2044.4441.650.00-0.70
Arkansas St.SB0.004.1730.0031.830.00-1.51
Little RockSB0.004.1720.0020.480.00-2.46
TroySB0.004.1740.0047.780.00-0.18
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.282.6577.7872.210.151.18
Appalachian St.SB0.002.6230.0044.780.00-0.27
Coastal CarolinaSB0.002.6237.5049.110.00-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.002.6137.5038.170.00-0.62
RiceCUSA5.831.8712.5023.03-4.38-1.01
MississippiSEC5.861.7844.4434.90-0.65-0.54
TulaneAmer5.561.7877.7858.153.090.29
MassachusettsA100.001.7854.5554.430.000.16
Alabama A&MSWAC5.561.780.0017.77-5.56-1.15
DaytonA105.561.7844.4450.70-0.620.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC5.561.7811.1148.39-4.32-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky5.561.7522.2247.07-3.09-0.10
MontanaBSky5.561.7550.0060.070.000.35
ChattanoogaSC0.001.7237.5042.270.00-0.27
LibertyBSth5.561.7257.1468.750.790.65
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.230.0019.850.00-0.14
Western CarolinaSC0.250.2022.2226.62-0.14-0.09
North DakotaBSky0.000.1822.2231.850.00-0.07
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1855.5664.870.000.05
Southern MissCUSA0.250.1842.8635.05-0.04-0.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1544.4448.830.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.000.1580.0061.200.000.03
UABCUSA0.250.1555.5666.290.030.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.1545.4530.290.00-0.06
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.310.1546.1543.17-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1430.0047.620.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1411.1135.210.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1445.4538.480.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.1445.4549.140.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.1488.8960.870.220.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.140.0021.600.00-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.280.140.0030.29-0.28-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.280.1420.0041.93-0.17-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.350.1260.0044.870.07-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1211.1121.140.00-0.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1262.5057.030.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.1266.6769.300.000.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.120.0024.040.00-0.06
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1250.0046.890.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1257.1447.360.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1240.0045.040.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1250.0056.540.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.1225.0032.360.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1242.8638.080.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.350.1280.0069.720.210.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1270.0053.200.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.1250.0047.930.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.1280.0074.070.000.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.140.1233.3332.04-0.38-0.04
VCUA100.000.1254.5564.640.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.250.1170.0056.320.100.01
NiagaraMAAC0.250.1145.4549.10-0.02-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.1166.6774.010.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0020.570.00-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0048.100.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0970.0074.150.000.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.280.0937.5043.17-0.07-0.01
HowardMEAC0.350.090.0032.84-0.35-0.03
MercerSC0.350.0950.0065.860.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.350.0966.6774.670.120.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.0944.4447.270.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0972.7371.790.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0962.5065.650.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.400.0927.2731.87-0.18-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.0942.8644.820.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0041.520.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0910.0026.950.00-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0920.0037.690.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.310.0990.0070.120.250.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0925.0039.550.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.280.0972.7356.020.130.01
AkronMAC0.280.0975.0053.090.140.01
Colorado St.MWC0.280.0940.0036.48-0.06-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0980.0081.220.000.06
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0925.0040.97-0.13-0.02
HawaiiBW0.280.0966.6753.340.090.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0990.0067.890.000.03
MaineAE0.000.0911.1117.410.00-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.0928.5743.45-0.12-0.01
SamfordSC0.250.0920.0030.68-0.15-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.090.0035.180.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.860.0981.8276.330.550.05
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0980.0055.950.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0950.0063.010.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0920.0024.400.00-0.04
UtahP120.830.0970.0060.800.330.02
BYUWCC0.000.0981.8276.040.000.04
DuquesneA100.000.0966.6747.890.00-0.00
FordhamA100.280.0940.0033.10-0.06-0.03
TulsaAmer0.280.0963.6451.550.080.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0940.0040.890.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.530.0850.0055.840.000.01
AuburnSEC0.280.0890.0067.590.220.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0844.4446.920.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0637.5048.680.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0628.5730.330.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0611.1132.740.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0616.6746.870.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.009.230.00-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0644.4431.210.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0642.8653.850.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0650.0061.750.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0642.8658.600.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.310.0620.0022.57-0.19-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.310.0687.5076.680.230.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0680.0072.520.000.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.400.060.0018.96-0.40-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0612.5048.020.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0616.6730.510.00-0.02
StanfordP120.670.0645.4538.10-0.06-0.01
WashingtonP120.280.0670.0055.230.110.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0637.5052.360.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.350.0630.0029.14-0.14-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0644.4428.660.00-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0636.3645.800.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0625.0026.110.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0625.0032.900.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0011.980.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0612.5035.370.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4359.830.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0680.0055.080.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0666.6765.260.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0670.0069.000.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0612.5037.540.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0633.3339.410.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0654.5547.120.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0611.1130.740.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0655.5659.410.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0670.0052.780.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0672.7366.890.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0616.6726.590.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.560.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.0636.3637.430.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0654.5561.400.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0644.4450.780.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0672.7363.930.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0633.3329.450.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0640.0039.470.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0625.0022.180.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0688.8978.530.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0618.1830.220.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.0637.5029.800.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.670.0680.0074.120.400.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0628.5740.350.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.280.0670.0076.590.110.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.0655.5652.920.030.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.0675.0074.610.140.03
New MexicoMWC0.000.0620.0037.240.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0630.0033.150.00-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0655.5631.670.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0654.5563.220.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0650.0040.250.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6767.910.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0670.0060.250.000.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0645.4547.200.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0680.0072.390.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0677.7847.820.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.250.0675.0063.800.130.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0680.0070.250.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.0687.5070.170.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.280.0690.0077.650.220.03
TCUB120.000.03100.0070.080.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0350.0046.200.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.350.0318.1819.21-0.22-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5062.870.000.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0355.5662.160.000.01
Penn St.B100.400.0372.7364.250.180.01
PittsburghACC0.400.0354.5533.300.04-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0318.1840.500.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0325.0030.880.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0354.5573.360.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0390.0065.600.000.01
IowaB100.000.0350.0044.300.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0380.0047.490.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0327.2731.720.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.840.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0375.0064.880.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.280.0362.5050.140.070.00
SeattleWAC0.280.0350.0055.280.000.00
South DakotaSum0.280.0372.7374.310.130.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0360.0068.510.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0057.470.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.280.0355.5662.980.030.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0381.8281.750.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0370.0048.240.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.280.0390.0071.940.220.01
HofstraCAA0.280.0366.6760.600.090.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.280.0330.0039.74-0.11-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.280.0355.5635.960.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.280.0390.0077.260.220.02
PennIvy0.280.0363.6466.470.080.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0381.8279.670.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0370.0056.000.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0371.4363.120.000.01
DePaulBE0.250.0354.5536.900.02-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.800.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0388.8949.620.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3348.410.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0333.3336.920.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0340.0044.42-0.06-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6746.240.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0375.0066.920.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.280.0377.7875.840.150.01
OregonP120.280.0375.0068.890.140.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0370.0052.870.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.0354.5565.540.030.01
TexasB120.000.0370.0058.580.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0350.0041.830.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0333.3333.760.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.280.0381.8268.230.180.01