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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:104.0
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:161
Current Record:18-12
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:146



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12104.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Auburn (113.0)SECA83-65L0%0.0
11-18Purdue (19.0)B10A64-56L0%0.0
11-22NJIT (290.0)ASunN74-53W100%0.0
11-23Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCN65-82W100%0.0
11-30Wright St. (115.0)HorzH81-74W100%0.0
12-4Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA82-60L0%0.0
12-14Alabama A&M (351.0)SWACH94-79W100%0.0
12-18Old Dominion (138.0)CUSAA58-46L0%0.0
12-21Middle Tennessee (34.0)CUSAA56-64W100%0.0
12-28Massachusetts (195.0)A10H65-74L0%0.0
12-31Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA88-65L0%0.0
1-7South Alabama (231.0)SBH78-77W100%0.0
1-9Troy (147.0)SBH77-80L0%0.0
1-14Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA65-73W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA86-101W100%0.0
1-21Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH76-56W100%0.0
1-23Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH83-72W100%0.0
1-28Troy (147.0)SBA72-78W100%0.0
1-30South Alabama (231.0)SBA80-83W100%0.0
2-4Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH85-82W100%0.0
2-6Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH69-55W100%0.0
2-11Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA77-72L0%0.0
2-13Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA65-64L0%0.0
2-18UT Arlington (45.0)SBH67-68L0%0.0
2-20Texas St. (179.0)SBH67-51W100%0.0
2-25Little Rock (243.0)SBA54-71W100%0.0
2-27Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA78-67L0%0.0
3-4Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH72-67W100%0.0
3-10Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBN86-76W100%0.0
3-11Troy (147.0)SBN63-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB26.4026.4062.6962.696.706.70
TroySB5.865.8658.0658.060.940.94
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.715.7167.8667.862.042.04
Georgia SouthernSB4.274.2753.5753.570.300.30
Coastal CarolinaSB4.154.1544.8344.83-0.43-0.43
South AlabamaSB4.144.1442.8642.86-0.59-0.59
Louisiana MonroeSB4.124.1224.1424.14-2.13-2.13
Appalachian St.SB4.114.1123.0823.08-2.21-2.21
Texas St.SB2.742.7460.0060.000.550.55
UT ArlingtonSB2.662.6673.3373.331.241.24
Little RockSB2.662.6644.8344.83-0.28-0.28
Arkansas St.SB2.642.6460.0060.000.530.53
AuburnSEC1.801.8054.8454.840.170.17
Middle TennesseeCUSA1.751.7590.6290.621.421.42
Alabama A&MSWAC1.741.747.147.14-1.49-1.49
PurdueB101.721.7277.4277.420.940.94
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.691.6935.7135.71-0.48-0.48
Mississippi St.SEC1.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
NJITASun1.691.6932.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Old DominionCUSA1.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
MassachusettsA101.671.6743.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Wright St.Horz1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
MinnesotaB100.240.2472.7372.730.110.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2344.4444.44-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.210.2157.5857.580.030.03
MississippiSEC0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
UABCUSA0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.200.2076.6776.670.100.10
FIUCUSA0.190.1917.2417.24-0.12-0.12
MarshallCUSA0.190.1955.8855.880.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.170.1728.1228.12-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
LSUSEC0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.130.1319.2319.23-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
DavidsonA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ToledoMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0629.4129.41-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00