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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:76
Expected SOS:217
Current SOS:217
Current Record:23-8
Expected Record:23-8
Current Conf Record:18-2
Expected Conf Record:18-2
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:237



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-876.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Vanderbilt (120.0)SECA86-80L0%0.0
11-18McNeese St. (272.0)SlndN96-70W100%0.0
11-19Alabama (124.0)SECA75-58L0%0.0
11-25Canisius (96.0)MAACN71-79L0%0.0
11-26Elon (162.0)SCA90-85L0%0.0
11-30FIU (202.0)CUSAA61-60L0%0.0
12-7Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA75-65L0%0.0
12-14Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAH79-73W100%0.0
12-20Georgia Southern (303.0)SCH73-61W100%0.0
12-22UTSA (306.0)CUSAA68-99W100%0.0
12-29East Carolina (216.0)CUSAA82-89W100%0.0
1-2Troy (285.0)SBH81-72W100%0.0
1-4South Alabama (280.0)SBA63-73W100%0.0
1-9Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA54-77W100%0.0
1-16Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH73-72W100%0.0
1-18Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH99-73W100%0.0
1-23Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA70-77W100%0.0
1-25Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA58-66W100%0.0
2-1UT Arlington (199.0)SBH101-91W100%0.0
2-3South Alabama (280.0)SBH85-65W100%0.0
2-6Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA57-68W100%0.0
2-15Troy (285.0)SBA85-81L0%0.0
2-17Texas St. (307.0)SBH68-41W100%0.0
2-20Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH75-60W100%0.0
2-22Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH80-77W100%0.0
2-27UT Arlington (199.0)SBA49-77W100%0.0
3-1Texas St. (307.0)SBA55-66W100%0.0
3-4Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA76-79W100%0.0
3-8Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH73-55W100%0.0
3-15Arkansas St. (180.0)SBN72-45W100%0.0
3-16Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBN81-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB26.5526.5580.1480.1416.0116.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.925.9267.8667.862.112.11
Arkansas St.SB5.835.8362.9662.961.511.51
Arkansas Little RockSB4.384.3846.4346.43-0.31-0.31
UT ArlingtonSB4.364.3646.4346.43-0.31-0.31
Western KentuckySB4.324.3265.5265.521.341.34
TroySB4.274.2729.6329.63-1.74-1.74
Louisiana MonroeSB4.254.2537.5037.50-1.06-1.06
South AlabamaSB4.234.2330.7730.77-1.63-1.63
Texas St.SB4.214.2122.2222.22-2.34-2.34
Southern MissCUSA1.891.8980.0080.001.131.13
East CarolinaCUSA1.811.8146.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Old DominionCUSA1.781.7850.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA1.751.7523.0823.08-0.94-0.94
FIUCUSA1.721.7244.4444.44-0.19-0.19
McNeese St.Slnd1.721.7226.9226.92-0.79-0.79
Georgia SouthernSC1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
ElonSC1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
CanisiusMAAC1.641.6464.5264.520.480.48
AlabamaSEC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
VanderbiltSEC1.641.6446.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.330.3378.7978.790.190.19
MarshallCUSA0.320.3229.0329.03-0.13-0.13
MississippiSEC0.270.2757.5857.580.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.270.2770.9770.970.110.11
SamfordSC0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
ArkansasSEC0.240.2465.6265.620.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
TulaneCUSA0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.2014.8114.81-0.14-0.14
LSUSEC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
RiceCUSA0.190.1917.8617.86-0.13-0.13
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.190.1926.6726.67-0.09-0.09
TexasB120.190.1969.7069.700.080.08
TulsaCUSA0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
LouisvilleAmer0.180.1885.2985.290.130.13
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1724.0024.00-0.09-0.09
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
HoustonAmer0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1546.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
UNC GreensboroSC0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
FloridaSEC0.130.1394.1294.120.120.12
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1321.2121.21-0.08-0.08
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
ColoradoP120.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
DavidsonSC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
FurmanSC0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
WoffordSC0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0993.1093.100.070.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SC0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
SienaMAAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01