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Through games of Feb 28, 2015.


Georgia St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:74.4
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:191
Current Record:19-9
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:52.14%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:42
Expected OOC SOS:63



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-969.853.01%
20-1077.840.31%
19-1190.56.68%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Iowa St. (17.9)B12A81-58L0%0.0
11-21Colorado St. (28.0)MWCA80-70L0%0.0
11-24Chicago St. (331.6)WACN46-69W100%0.0
11-25Western Carolina (237.0)SCN85-70W100%0.0
11-26Oakland (131.5)HorzA78-83W100%0.0
11-29IUPUI (255.3)SumA63-66W100%0.0
12-4Green Bay (61.7)HorzH72-48W100%0.0
12-17Old Dominion (40.8)CUSAA58-54L0%0.0
12-21Southern Miss (283.7)CUSAH68-55W100%0.0
12-27Green Bay (61.7)HorzA78-61L0%0.0
12-30Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH65-45W100%0.0
1-3Arkansas Little Rock (261.8)SBH82-69W100%0.0
1-5Texas St. (227.6)SBH74-77L0%0.0
1-8Louisiana Lafayette (156.3)SBA84-80L0%0.0
1-10Troy (310.1)SBH77-72W100%0.0
1-15UT Arlington (160.0)SBH83-62W100%0.0
1-17Appalachian St. (270.4)SBA74-69L0%0.0
1-19Arkansas St. (264.0)SBA54-60W100%0.0
1-24Louisiana Lafayette (156.3)SBH75-64W100%0.0
1-29UT Arlington (160.0)SBA74-88W100%0.0
1-31Arkansas St. (264.0)SBH74-43W100%0.0
2-5Georgia Southern (124.7)SBA58-54L0%0.0
2-7South Alabama (294.6)SBA54-65W100%0.0
2-14Texas St. (227.6)SBA41-53W100%0.0
2-19South Alabama (294.6)SBH79-51W100%0.0
2-21Appalachian St. (270.4)SBH87-43W100%0.0
2-26Arkansas Little Rock (261.8)SBA92-83L0%0.0
2-28Troy (310.1)SBA64-75W100%0.0
3-5Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA0-067%4.8
3-7Georgia Southern (124.7)SBH0-080%8.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia St.SB26.5426.5574.1774.2112.8312.86
Arkansas Little RockSB4.674.4842.3141.46-0.72-0.77
South AlabamaSB4.604.4828.0029.39-2.02-1.85
TroySB4.634.4433.3333.66-1.54-1.45
Appalachian St.SB4.534.4236.0036.25-1.27-1.22
UT ArlingtonSB4.574.4260.0059.130.910.81
Arkansas St.SB4.534.4241.6742.09-0.76-0.70
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.534.4254.1755.820.380.51
Louisiana MonroeSB2.874.4162.5062.840.721.13
Georgia SouthernSB2.884.4169.5769.571.131.72
Texas St.SB4.554.4140.9141.00-0.83-0.79
Green BayHorz3.733.4876.9276.922.011.87
OaklandHorz2.011.8750.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA1.951.8128.0027.03-0.86-0.83
Chicago St.WAC1.911.7819.2318.58-1.18-1.12
Western CarolinaSC1.851.7344.4444.44-0.21-0.19
IUPUISum1.851.7234.4834.48-0.57-0.54
Old DominionCUSA1.821.7077.7878.531.010.97
Iowa St.B121.821.7070.3769.530.740.66
Colorado St.MWC1.791.6781.4880.631.121.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.290.2642.8642.86-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.260.2341.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.220.2132.1432.14-0.08-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.200.187.697.76-0.17-0.15
TexasB120.200.1858.6259.330.040.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.190.1853.5753.570.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.190.1882.1482.140.120.11
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
UTSACUSA0.170.1544.0045.84-0.02-0.01
LamarSlnd0.170.1545.8344.52-0.01-0.02
UABCUSA0.140.1553.5754.380.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1575.8676.580.070.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1550.0050.770.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.130.1533.3331.69-0.04-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.160.1557.1456.290.020.02
UMKCWAC0.160.1439.2940.08-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.160.1444.8346.85-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.140.1248.0047.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.100.1240.7440.36-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1254.5554.780.010.01
SamfordSC0.100.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.130.1265.5264.240.040.03
New MexicoMWC0.100.1248.2848.79-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.130.1267.8669.210.050.05
FurmanSC0.130.1222.2222.22-0.07-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1250.0050.320.000.00
Miami FLACC0.130.1262.0761.920.030.03
TulsaAmer0.130.1277.7875.090.070.06
UC IrvineBW0.130.1257.6958.360.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.1261.5458.970.020.02
DrakeMVC0.130.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1253.5753.570.010.01
BradleyMVC0.130.1123.3323.33-0.07-0.06
RichmondA100.130.1158.6259.650.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.0935.7138.37-0.03-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0939.2939.33-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
MercerSC0.100.0951.7251.720.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0962.9664.230.020.02
PurdueB100.100.0967.8664.650.040.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.100.0946.1544.44-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0932.0031.18-0.04-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0937.0437.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.100.0946.1546.10-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
DenverSum0.090.0841.3841.38-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.040.0662.0761.990.010.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0640.7442.95-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0628.5728.64-0.02-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.040.0625.9328.17-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0684.0084.130.050.04
StetsonASun0.040.0622.2222.22-0.02-0.04
UCFAmer0.040.0640.7440.63-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0615.3814.81-0.05-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0665.3865.380.010.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0648.2847.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0667.8666.170.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0665.5264.790.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0618.1820.76-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0653.3353.330.000.00
AuburnSEC0.070.0639.2938.92-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0637.0437.85-0.02-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0640.7440.47-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0651.8551.850.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0634.7838.22-0.02-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0625.0026.21-0.03-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0659.2659.260.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0624.0024.53-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0630.7731.12-0.03-0.02
VMISC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0689.2987.440.050.04
WoffordSC0.060.0679.3179.310.040.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0624.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.070.0672.4171.340.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0667.8668.870.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0624.1423.76-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0641.3840.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0644.4444.03-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.070.0661.2961.290.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0633.3334.10-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.2962.970.020.01
KentuckySEC0.070.06100.0099.550.070.06
Montana St.BSky0.070.0621.4321.47-0.04-0.03
NJITind0.070.0654.1754.180.010.00
OhioMAC0.070.0633.3333.19-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0634.4834.77-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0640.0040.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0682.7682.190.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.060.0642.3142.09-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.060.0675.0074.800.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.0775.590.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0644.4443.81-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.060.0679.3177.530.040.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0650.0048.830.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0626.9225.67-0.01-0.03
OklahomaB120.030.0671.4370.330.010.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0659.2658.600.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.0075.360.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.17-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
TCUB120.030.0658.6257.150.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0643.3342.04-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0675.8674.170.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.060.0670.3768.780.030.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0373.0872.280.020.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.5754.210.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0373.0871.340.020.01
CreightonBE0.030.0344.8343.41-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.030.0340.0039.60-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.1456.730.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0382.7681.280.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0357.1457.450.000.00
ArizonaP120.030.0389.6689.910.020.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0357.1455.080.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0352.0052.010.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.8665.870.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.2963.040.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0359.2658.300.010.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0379.3178.080.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0323.0824.73-0.02-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0344.4445.04-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0329.6328.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0365.5265.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.6757.700.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0317.2420.20-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0357.6958.420.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0322.2222.67-0.02-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.440.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.1547.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.34-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.4443.54-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0353.8554.380.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.5754.430.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.0362.9661.640.000.01
VCUA100.030.0372.4172.030.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0360.0060.270.010.01