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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:119.1
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:287
Current Record:12-6
Expected Record:19-10
Current Conf Record:5-2
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:242



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-658.00.37%
22-768.83.51%
21-883.411.01%
20-999.522.18%
19-10117.826.34%
18-11136.720.51%
17-12155.511.04%
16-13173.73.91%
15-14190.20.94%
14-15206.00.16%
13-16217.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Wake Forest (133.8)ACCA83-85W100%0.0
11-13Cal St. Bakersfield (216.8)WACH77-53W100%0.0
11-20Missouri St. (58.1)MVCN73-74W100%0.0
11-21UMKC (262.9)WACN78-75W100%0.0
11-22Towson (90.1)CAAN70-67L0%0.0
11-25Bradley (123.3)MVCA62-57L0%0.0
12-9Savannah St. (246.7)MEACH102-91W100%0.0
12-12George Mason (224.7)A10A51-74W100%0.0
12-16Cal St. Bakersfield (216.8)WACA55-53L0%0.0
12-19Kennesaw St. (313.7)ASunA69-78W100%0.0
12-22East Tennessee St. (62.0)SCA79-59L0%0.0
12-29Troy (207.3)SBA80-86W100%0.0
12-31South Alabama (235.0)SBA69-67L0%0.0
1-4Arkansas St. (291.0)SBH80-49W100%0.0
1-6Little Rock (293.5)SBH72-69W100%0.0
1-11Coastal Carolina (245.2)SBA66-77W100%0.0
1-13Appalachian St. (266.2)SBA59-60W100%0.0
1-20Georgia St. (136.3)SBA83-66L0%0.0
1-25Texas St. (216.4)SBH0-079%8.8
1-27UT Arlington (120.9)SBH0-052%0.6
2-1Little Rock (293.5)SBA0-071%6.2
2-3Arkansas St. (291.0)SBA0-067%4.9
2-8Louisiana Monroe (292.5)SBH0-087%12.7
2-10Louisiana Lafayette (62.2)SBH0-043%-2.0
2-16Georgia St. (136.3)SBH0-059%2.5
2-22UT Arlington (120.9)SBA0-030%-5.8
2-24Texas St. (216.4)SBA0-059%2.4
3-1South Alabama (235.0)SBH0-080%9.5
3-3Troy (207.3)SBH0-069%5.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB26.5326.3676.1969.4313.9010.24
Georgia St.SB3.254.2964.7165.140.951.30
Little RockSB3.004.2023.5326.05-1.59-2.01
South AlabamaSB3.094.1847.0644.84-0.18-0.43
UT ArlingtonSB0.474.1760.0062.260.091.02
Arkansas St.SB2.934.1729.4132.19-1.21-1.49
Texas St.SB0.474.1757.8951.600.070.13
TroySB3.094.1737.5044.85-0.77-0.43
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.633.5126.6731.80-2.63-1.28
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.392.6583.3382.240.261.71
Coastal CarolinaSB3.092.6529.4139.56-1.27-0.55
Louisiana MonroeSB0.312.6226.6729.70-0.14-1.06
Appalachian St.SB2.932.5635.2938.61-0.86-0.58
UMKCWAC2.941.8622.2225.67-1.63-0.90
BradleyMVC2.851.8463.1656.430.750.24
East Tennessee St.SC2.941.8276.4778.411.551.03
Savannah St.MEAC2.851.7829.4135.73-1.18-0.51
Missouri St.MVC2.781.7873.6870.651.320.74
Wake ForestACC2.851.7544.4441.86-0.32-0.29
George MasonA102.781.7247.3742.68-0.15-0.25
Kennesaw St.ASun2.781.7217.6525.87-1.80-0.83
TowsonCAA2.781.7261.1164.750.620.51
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.240.3145.0045.03-0.02-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.2570.0071.230.060.11
SeattleWAC0.150.2357.8954.500.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.230.220.003.07-0.23-0.21
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1983.3384.240.110.13
Utah ValleyWAC0.240.1966.6766.020.080.06
RiceCUSA0.080.1811.1117.68-0.06-0.11
EvansvilleMVC0.290.1752.6347.520.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.140.1744.4450.08-0.020.00
DelawareCAA0.230.1547.3743.02-0.01-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.300.1520.0041.73-0.18-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.150.1538.8935.37-0.03-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.1578.9574.190.120.07
DrakeMVC0.210.1455.0048.980.02-0.00
IdahoBSky0.330.1364.7166.850.100.04
ArkansasSEC0.250.1368.4264.200.090.04
LamarSlnd0.320.1350.0054.890.000.01
StetsonASun0.150.1233.3336.93-0.05-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.1257.8966.260.010.04
Texas TechB120.230.1278.9571.810.130.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.1230.0036.50-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.120.009.09-0.16-0.10
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1241.1838.47-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.230.1278.9577.380.130.07
UTSACUSA0.150.1241.1839.65-0.03-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.1252.9452.650.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1245.0049.29-0.02-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.150.1222.2228.59-0.09-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.1218.7536.82-0.05-0.03
TulaneAmer0.150.1263.1657.890.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.1225.0028.24-0.07-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.220.1237.5037.68-0.05-0.03
MississippiSEC0.150.1252.6345.860.01-0.01
La SalleA100.150.1240.0042.69-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.220.1229.4139.63-0.09-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.220.1264.7159.990.060.02
MassachusettsA100.150.1250.0046.810.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1147.3746.09-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.070.1144.4446.02-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.1155.0052.470.010.01
ValparaisoMVC0.210.1147.3748.77-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.070.1131.5834.36-0.03-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.240.1062.5058.690.060.02
USC UpstateASun0.070.0911.1118.00-0.06-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.230.0966.6763.420.080.03
HofstraCAA0.150.0957.8959.490.020.02
MercerSC0.150.0944.4454.86-0.020.01
SamfordSC0.150.0927.7832.66-0.07-0.03
KentuckySEC0.160.0973.6867.970.080.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.220.0966.6765.640.070.03
South FloridaAmer0.150.0935.0026.12-0.05-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0926.3231.50-0.07-0.03
WoffordSC0.080.0968.7563.690.030.02
ManhattanMAAC0.220.0950.0050.860.000.00
HowardMEAC0.150.0910.5327.29-0.12-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0937.5045.24-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0965.0056.340.040.01
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0945.0041.33-0.01-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.0929.4133.93-0.06-0.03
LibertyBSth0.150.0950.0054.190.000.01
Oral RobertsSum0.150.0930.0032.52-0.06-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.150.0968.7567.600.060.03
DaytonA100.080.0947.3750.94-0.000.00
VCUA100.080.0960.0059.700.020.02
ArizonaP120.160.0780.0078.940.100.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.0711.1115.29-0.13-0.05
UCLAP120.160.0765.0062.050.050.02
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0633.3333.77-0.03-0.02
LipscombASun0.080.0652.9459.340.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0638.8942.610.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0670.0068.220.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0652.9455.030.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0650.0052.460.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0644.4446.00-0.01-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0668.7563.990.030.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0642.1146.00-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0629.4134.76-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.130.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.640.040.02
PennIvy0.150.0664.7162.720.040.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.0672.2272.980.060.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.0642.1143.51-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.150.0675.0077.850.070.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.0637.5031.760.00-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0661.9063.140.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0620.0023.34-0.05-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0638.8946.05-0.02-0.00
ElonCAA0.070.0652.6351.080.000.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0635.2935.54-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.540.030.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.065.8819.350.00-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0657.8950.710.010.00
MaineAE0.080.0610.5314.83-0.06-0.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0665.0058.540.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0672.2258.920.030.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0670.5973.150.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0625.0028.01-0.04-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.1663.220.000.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.0666.6773.210.050.03
PacificWCC0.000.0645.0044.470.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0621.0539.48-0.04-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0657.1460.410.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0642.1146.09-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0643.7549.13-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0663.1657.540.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0636.8432.76-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.7831.710.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.067.6923.280.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0618.7518.360.00-0.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.150.0622.2227.33-0.08-0.03
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
VMISC0.080.0625.0024.15-0.04-0.03
DavidsonA100.150.0658.8261.450.030.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0684.2173.240.000.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0640.0030.87-0.01-0.02
VirginiaACC0.150.0694.7486.140.130.04
FordhamA100.080.0631.5829.06-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0652.6355.290.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0643.7554.11-0.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0668.4258.980.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0680.9576.240.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0623.5328.210.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0070.700.000.02
DukeACC0.070.0689.4785.210.060.04
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.110.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0627.7829.100.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0657.1453.050.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.0644.4450.31-0.020.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0644.4446.650.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.070.0668.4261.230.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0678.9569.790.040.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0645.0043.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0650.0051.640.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0336.8444.110.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0338.8943.430.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.037.1414.820.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0370.0070.570.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0380.0078.850.000.02
TCUB120.000.0373.6865.600.000.01
ButlerBE0.080.0366.6763.070.030.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0357.8953.190.010.00
WashingtonP120.080.0370.0061.440.030.01
YaleIvy0.080.0341.1847.56-0.01-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0360.0064.110.020.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0361.1147.220.02-0.00
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0380.9576.520.050.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0361.1151.910.020.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.380.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0333.3334.10-0.03-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0352.9452.230.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0316.6724.26-0.05-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0361.1156.090.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0389.4785.550.060.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.90-0.06-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.97-0.04-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.630.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.690.000.00
IowaB100.000.0347.6244.020.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.66-0.04-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0315.7920.91-0.05-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.260.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0385.0083.200.050.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.740.000.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0378.9576.750.040.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.960.030.01
UMBCAE0.070.0355.5655.540.010.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0361.1156.830.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02
ArmyPat0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0365.0054.670.020.00
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0323.5325.64-0.04-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.83-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7870.480.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.020.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0335.0031.83-0.02-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0358.8262.820.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0327.7840.97-0.03-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0368.4257.740.030.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0368.4269.250.030.01
AuburnSEC0.070.0389.4777.000.050.02
BinghamtonAE0.070.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0317.6519.30-0.04-0.02
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.090.030.00
LafayettePat0.070.0322.2227.47-0.04-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.760.020.00
Rhode IslandA100.070.0383.3381.430.050.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0347.3746.92-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6768.730.000.01