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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:121.0
Current RPI:121
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:156
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14121.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA81-79L0%0.0
11-20Mercer (192.0)SCA80-67L0%0.0
11-22Akron (58.0)MACA75-67L0%0.0
11-25Florida A&M (349.0)MEACN72-83W100%0.0
11-26Radford (227.0)BSthN65-64W100%0.0
12-1Savannah St. (279.0)MEACA75-94W100%0.0
12-4Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunH82-85L0%0.0
12-9Minnesota (20.0)B10A86-49L0%0.0
12-13Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA59-72W100%0.0
12-15FIU (338.0)CUSAA68-75W100%0.0
12-20Winthrop (70.0)BSthA86-84L0%0.0
12-31Georgia St. (104.0)SBH88-65W100%0.0
1-7Troy (147.0)SBH86-82W100%0.0
1-9South Alabama (231.0)SBH84-79W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA76-81W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA60-62W100%0.0
1-21Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH92-88W100%0.0
1-23Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH91-80W100%0.0
1-28South Alabama (231.0)SBA78-66L0%0.0
1-30Troy (147.0)SBA83-76L0%0.0
2-4Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH76-62W100%0.0
2-6Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH74-70W100%0.0
2-11Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA82-70L0%0.0
2-13Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA83-78L0%0.0
2-18Texas St. (179.0)SBH70-67W100%0.0
2-20UT Arlington (45.0)SBH71-81L0%0.0
2-25Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA60-72W100%0.0
2-27Little Rock (243.0)SBA56-54L0%0.0
3-4Georgia St. (104.0)SBA72-67L0%0.0
3-10Troy (147.0)SBN70-90L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB26.3526.3559.3859.384.944.94
TroySB5.805.8058.0658.060.940.94
Georgia St.SB4.274.2760.7160.710.910.91
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.124.1265.5265.521.281.28
South AlabamaSB4.114.1139.2939.29-0.88-0.88
Appalachian St.SB4.114.1123.0823.08-2.21-2.21
Coastal CarolinaSB4.104.1044.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Louisiana MonroeSB4.064.0624.1424.14-2.10-2.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun3.393.3978.5778.571.941.94
UT ArlingtonSB2.692.6973.3373.331.261.26
Texas St.SB2.682.6860.0060.000.540.54
Arkansas St.SB2.612.6163.3363.330.700.70
Little RockSB2.582.5841.3841.38-0.45-0.45
FIUCUSA1.781.7817.8617.86-1.14-1.14
RadfordBSth1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
MinnesotaB101.771.7771.8871.880.780.78
North Carolina St.ACC1.731.7345.1645.16-0.17-0.17
AkronMAC1.721.7275.0075.000.860.86
WinthropBSth1.721.7279.3179.311.011.01
MercerSC1.721.7241.3841.38-0.30-0.30
Florida A&MMEAC1.701.7018.5218.52-1.07-1.07
Savannah St.MEAC1.701.7042.3142.31-0.26-0.26
StetsonASun0.310.3127.5927.59-0.14-0.14
JacksonvilleASun0.230.2346.4346.43-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2044.4444.44-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.200.2036.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
NJITASun0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
ChattanoogaSC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1787.8887.880.130.13
CampbellBSth0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.160.1670.0070.000.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
SamfordSC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
LibertyBSth0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
AuburnSEC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
Michigan St.B100.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
UABCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
FloridaSEC0.110.1175.0075.000.060.06
High PointBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1110.7110.71-0.09-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
FurmanSC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VMISC0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0710.3410.34-0.06-0.06
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.06-0.06
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00