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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:238.9
Current RPI:237
Expected SOS:233
Current SOS:256
Current Record:9-12
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12163.30.03%
15-13179.60.58%
14-14196.14.02%
13-15213.016.00%
12-16231.331.22%
11-17250.030.66%
10-18266.514.70%
9-19281.22.78%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Mississippi (113.8)SECA82-72L0%0.0
11-20Auburn (167.3)SECA92-62L0%0.0
11-25The Citadel (307.6)SCN90-95L0%0.0
11-27USC Upstate (327.4)ASunA80-84W100%0.0
12-2Savannah St. (327.9)MEACA76-67L0%0.0
12-15Duke (17.2)ACCA99-65L0%0.0
12-19Winthrop (161.3)BSthH81-88L0%0.0
12-22Stetson (304.8)ASunH78-58W100%0.0
12-30Texas St. (276.7)SBA80-66L0%0.0
1-2UT Arlington (99.3)SBA92-72L0%0.0
1-7South Alabama (251.0)SBH58-64L0%0.0
1-9Troy (298.5)SBH93-88W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Lafayette (102.1)SBH65-74L0%0.0
1-16Louisiana Monroe (159.8)SBH66-51W100%0.0
1-19Georgia St. (160.1)SBA69-66L0%0.0
1-25Appalachian St. (265.7)SBA100-101W100%0.0
1-28Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBA80-67L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas St. (243.7)SBA66-71W100%0.0
2-4UT Arlington (99.3)SBH82-73W100%0.0
2-6Texas St. (276.7)SBH66-62W100%0.0
2-11Troy (298.5)SBA71-77W100%0.0
2-13South Alabama (251.0)SBA0-043%-2.0
2-18Arkansas St. (243.7)SBH0-059%2.4
2-20Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBH0-017%-10.5
2-23Georgia St. (160.1)SBH0-046%-1.2
2-25Appalachian St. (265.7)SBH0-063%3.6
3-3Louisiana Monroe (159.8)SBA0-021%-8.9
3-5Louisiana Lafayette (102.1)SBA0-010%-13.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB26.4826.5046.2442.73-1.99-3.85
Arkansas St.SB3.334.7342.8640.17-0.48-0.93
TroySB5.534.7225.0026.18-2.77-2.25
Georgia St.SB3.374.7152.6351.780.180.17
Appalachian St.SB3.284.7026.0928.81-1.57-1.99
UT ArlingtonSB5.434.7070.0072.882.172.15
Arkansas Little RockSB3.264.7085.7183.672.333.16
Louisiana MonroeSB3.214.7047.6249.75-0.15-0.02
South AlabamaSB3.224.7033.3333.15-1.07-1.58
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.204.6957.8959.630.510.90
Texas St.SB5.474.6938.8937.99-1.22-1.13
MississippiSEC2.601.9760.8757.570.570.30
USC UpstateASun2.541.9222.7323.28-1.39-1.02
StetsonASun2.481.8823.8128.44-1.30-0.81
The CitadelSC2.491.8527.2726.88-1.13-0.86
Savannah St.MEAC2.441.8535.0035.18-0.73-0.55
AuburnSEC2.431.8436.3633.22-0.66-0.62
WinthropBSth2.431.8265.0062.330.730.45
DukeACC2.381.7973.9170.901.140.75
UABCUSA0.270.1983.3379.820.180.11
JacksonvilleASun0.210.1947.8348.57-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.220.1930.0031.76-0.09-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.220.1960.8755.980.050.02
HamptonMEAC0.220.1959.0961.280.040.04
SamfordSC0.270.1940.0041.68-0.05-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.160.1825.0029.89-0.08-0.07
MissouriSEC0.210.1833.3330.28-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1668.1867.730.060.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.1572.7370.520.100.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.210.1550.0048.950.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.160.1559.0955.160.030.02
MercerSC0.200.1566.6767.110.070.05
CampbellBSth0.170.1331.8232.08-0.06-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.160.1331.8236.11-0.06-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1350.0052.870.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.160.1325.0026.38-0.08-0.06
LipscombASun0.160.1328.0030.49-0.07-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1322.2231.22-0.10-0.05
NJITASun0.160.1356.0055.640.020.01
North FloridaASun0.160.1362.5064.120.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1341.6739.49-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.110.1338.4638.50-0.03-0.03
LibertyBSth0.160.1334.7836.53-0.05-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.230.1354.1754.200.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1383.3383.710.110.08
IdahoBSky0.160.1256.5255.340.020.01
FurmanSC0.150.1256.0054.430.020.01
North TexasCUSA0.220.1231.8232.46-0.08-0.04
RiceCUSA0.160.1227.2728.16-0.07-0.05
LSUSEC0.160.1262.5059.080.040.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1217.6526.67-0.10-0.06
TexasB120.160.1266.6762.200.050.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.1283.3378.380.030.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1029.1733.11-0.07-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.160.1023.8125.49-0.08-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.110.1057.1457.670.020.02
BaylorB120.110.1073.9168.450.050.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1050.0054.180.000.01
OregonP120.110.1079.1777.200.060.05
South FloridaAmer0.160.1020.0019.73-0.10-0.06
Miami FLACC0.110.0982.6177.580.070.05
West VirginiaB120.110.0979.1778.100.060.05
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0975.0075.340.030.05
Seton HallBE0.160.0970.8368.080.070.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0937.5042.32-0.03-0.01
BradleyMVC0.160.0912.0011.95-0.12-0.07
MemphisAmer0.160.0958.3359.310.030.02
TennesseeSEC0.100.0950.0048.130.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0958.3359.970.020.02
FloridaSEC0.150.0966.6766.320.050.03
KentuckySEC0.150.0975.0072.610.080.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0943.4843.77-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0727.2727.80-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0725.0025.08-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.060.0757.1459.870.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.110.0721.7424.60-0.06-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0725.0033.23-0.03-0.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0752.1754.100.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0752.1754.130.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0762.5063.450.010.02
NavyPat0.100.0764.0064.460.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0726.3232.40-0.03-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0758.3363.180.010.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0758.3360.900.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.079.0917.14-0.10-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0768.1865.170.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.0776.1972.370.060.03
UCLAP120.060.0756.5253.400.010.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.0714.2915.44-0.09-0.05
UTSACUSA0.120.0713.0412.96-0.09-0.05
Washington St.P120.120.0734.7831.64-0.04-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0754.1753.810.000.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0660.8760.240.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0626.0928.41-0.02-0.03
VMISC0.050.0619.0519.67-0.03-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0631.8234.54-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0645.8348.12-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.110.0670.8368.520.040.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0658.3358.400.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0668.0066.640.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0652.0049.300.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0670.8367.980.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.600.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0625.0027.26-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0660.8759.830.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.069.5212.09-0.04-0.05
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0669.5770.090.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0616.6719.49-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0650.0050.500.000.00
Texas TechB120.050.0660.8755.310.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0666.6764.700.020.02
FordhamA100.110.0652.3850.690.010.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.0615.0018.13-0.08-0.04
Ohio St.B100.110.0660.0055.560.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0650.0052.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.9680.420.070.04
HofstraCAA0.050.0666.6766.770.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0679.1775.990.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0672.2275.600.020.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.01-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0641.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0328.5733.30-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.039.0912.26-0.05-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0343.4845.21-0.01-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0336.3638.97-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0324.0024.16-0.03-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0319.0525.90-0.04-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0354.5552.530.000.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
IPFWSum0.050.0370.8368.660.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.020.01
RichmondA100.050.0356.5255.820.010.00
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.75-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0343.4837.80-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0360.8758.900.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.580.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.57-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0385.0083.440.040.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0358.3360.710.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.30-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.850.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.69-0.02-0.01
BryantNEC0.050.0324.0024.92-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.060.010.00
ElonCAA0.050.0350.0050.070.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0366.6763.300.000.01
George MasonA100.050.0333.3333.63-0.02-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0356.0052.870.010.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0354.1752.000.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0380.0075.690.030.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.930.020.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0372.7367.600.000.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0365.3864.970.020.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.0415.26-0.04-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0368.0064.090.020.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.730.010.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.050.0370.8371.050.020.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0383.3378.460.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.620.020.01