Georgia Southern

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	203.0
Current RPI:	203
Expected SOS:	249
Current SOS:	249
Current Record:	13-15
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-5
Current OOC Record:	0-8
Expected OOC Record:	0-8
Expected OOC RPI:	332
Expected OOC SOS:	150

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	203.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	81-90	L	0%
11-16	Wake Forest (183.0)	ACC	A	81-72	L	0%
11-23	South Florida (52.0)	BE	A	66-46	L	0%
11-27	Southern Methodist (212.0)	CUSA	A	55-49	L	0%
12-1	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	H	84-76	W	100%
12-3	Appalachian St. (258.0)	SC	H	73-62	W	100%
12-10	Eastern Kentucky (226.0)	OVC	A	63-59	L	0%
12-19	South Alabama (169.0)	SB	A	70-57	L	0%
12-22	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	A	72-52	L	0%
12-30	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	A	78-75	L	0%
1-5	Elon (228.0)	SC	A	63-69	W	100%
1-7	Davidson (66.0)	SC	A	96-74	L	0%
1-12	Samford (269.0)	SC	H	58-53	W	100%
1-14	Wofford (178.0)	SC	A	88-63	L	0%
1-19	Furman (235.0)	SC	A	64-54	L	0%
1-21	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	H	64-58	W	100%
1-23	The Citadel (325.0)	SC	H	78-72	W	100%
1-26	Samford (269.0)	SC	A	57-55	L	0%
1-28	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	A	72-75	W	100%
2-4	Western Carolina (220.0)	SC	A	65-68	W	100%
2-6	Furman (235.0)	SC	H	64-57	W	100%
2-9	Wofford (178.0)	SC	H	63-49	W	100%
2-11	The Citadel (325.0)	SC	A	72-73	W	100%
2-18	NC Greensboro (231.0)	SC	H	83-69	W	100%
2-23	College of Charleston (122.0)	SC	A	58-53	L	0%
2-25	Davidson (66.0)	SC	H	54-71	L	0%
3-2	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	N	76-70	W	100%
3-3	Elon (228.0)	SC	N	65-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Georgia Southern	SC	26.45	26.45	50.89	50.89	0.47	0.47
Chattanooga	SC	6.14	6.14	30.77	30.77	-2.36	-2.36
Davidson	SC	4.67	4.67	75.86	75.86	2.41	2.41
Elon	SC	4.54	4.54	44.44	44.44	-0.50	-0.50
Furman	SC	4.53	4.53	44.44	44.44	-0.50	-0.50
Samford	SC	4.50	4.50	30.77	30.77	-1.73	-1.73
College of Charleston	SC	4.48	4.48	62.07	62.07	1.08	1.08
Wofford	SC	4.47	4.47	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
The Citadel	SC	4.47	4.47	15.38	15.38	-3.09	-3.09
Western Carolina	SC	2.97	2.97	46.88	46.88	-0.19	-0.19
Appalachian St.	SC	2.84	2.84	39.29	39.29	-0.61	-0.61
NC Greensboro	SC	2.82	2.82	40.00	40.00	-0.56	-0.56
Georgia St.	CAA	1.85	1.85	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Wake Forest	ACC	1.85	1.85	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
South Florida	BE	1.81	1.81	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Auburn	SEC	1.81	1.81	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	1.79	1.79	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
South Alabama	SB	1.79	1.79	55.56	55.56	0.20	0.20
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.79	1.79	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
Valparaiso	Horz	1.79	1.79	63.33	63.33	0.48	0.48
Tennessee	SEC	0.27	0.27	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.24	0.24	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Kentucky	SEC	0.18	0.18	94.12	94.12	0.16	0.16
Jacksonville	ASun	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.09	-0.09
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.18	0.18	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Butler	Horz	0.18	0.18	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.18	0.18	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Presbyterian	BSth	0.18	0.18	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.15	0.15	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Duke	ACC	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Denver	SB	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.12	0.12	57.69	57.69	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.12	0.12	6.67	6.67	-0.11	-0.11
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Utah Valley	GWC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Troy	SB	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	21.88	21.88	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	83.87	83.87	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	96.43	96.43	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	65.38	65.38	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01