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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:100.4
Current RPI:85
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:164
Current Record:10-6
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:5-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:127



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-634.70.03%
22-744.00.53%
21-853.02.30%
20-963.87.81%
19-1075.915.45%
18-1190.122.30%
17-12105.121.91%
16-13121.116.87%
15-14137.88.29%
14-15155.13.33%
13-16174.51.08%
12-17188.00.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina St. (92.8)ACCA81-79L0%0.0
11-20Mercer (184.2)SCA80-67L0%0.0
11-22Akron (59.2)MACA75-67L0%0.0
11-25Florida A&M (348.3)MEACN72-83W100%0.0
11-26Radford (213.6)BSthN65-64W100%0.0
12-1Savannah St. (325.2)MEACA75-94W100%0.0
12-4Florida Gulf Coast (76.2)ASunH82-85L0%0.0
12-9Minnesota (26.0)B10A86-49L0%0.0
12-13Florida Gulf Coast (76.2)ASunA59-72W100%0.0
12-15FIU (326.4)CUSAA68-75W100%0.0
12-20Winthrop (97.9)BSthA86-84L0%0.0
12-31Georgia St. (131.6)SBH88-65W100%0.0
1-7Troy (196.9)SBH86-82W100%0.0
1-9South Alabama (224.6)SBH84-79W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Lafayette (112.4)SBA76-81W100%0.0
1-16Louisiana Monroe (274.3)SBA60-62W100%0.0
1-21Appalachian St. (256.4)SBH0-080%9.3
1-23Coastal Carolina (182.7)SBH0-071%6.3
1-28South Alabama (224.6)SBA0-056%1.7
1-30Troy (196.9)SBA0-046%-1.0
2-4Louisiana Monroe (274.3)SBH0-082%10.1
2-6Louisiana Lafayette (112.4)SBH0-054%1.0
2-11Coastal Carolina (182.7)SBA0-050%0.1
2-13Appalachian St. (256.4)SBA0-061%3.0
2-18Texas St. (241.9)SBH0-078%8.6
2-20UT Arlington (54.6)SBH0-045%-1.4
2-25Arkansas St. (74.8)SBA0-030%-5.8
2-27Little Rock (206.9)SBA0-051%0.2
3-4Georgia St. (131.6)SBA0-039%-3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB26.7326.3671.0565.8911.268.38
Georgia St.SB3.514.2957.1457.820.500.67
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.414.2066.6765.461.141.30
South AlabamaSB3.424.2046.6742.80-0.23-0.60
Appalachian St.SB0.094.1928.5731.78-0.04-1.53
Coastal CarolinaSB0.004.1743.7543.95-0.00-0.50
TroySB3.334.1750.0049.630.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB3.334.1726.6729.91-1.55-1.67
Florida Gulf CoastASun6.353.5171.4375.402.721.78
UT ArlingtonSB0.472.7268.7570.920.181.14
Arkansas St.SB0.282.6564.7165.790.080.84
Little RockSB0.202.6256.2551.360.020.07
Texas St.SB0.192.6253.3346.800.01-0.17
FIUCUSA3.421.8513.3322.75-2.51-1.01
RadfordBSth3.421.8540.0044.71-0.68-0.20
MinnesotaB103.221.8477.7869.151.790.71
North Carolina St.ACC3.121.7964.7149.320.92-0.02
WinthropBSth3.221.7971.4372.891.380.82
AkronMAC3.311.7880.0072.631.990.81
MercerSC3.321.7831.2542.06-1.25-0.28
Florida A&MMEAC3.221.7613.3320.78-2.36-1.03
Savannah St.MEAC3.221.7626.6733.18-1.50-0.59
StetsonASun0.590.2825.0027.36-0.29-0.13
JacksonvilleASun0.290.2556.2553.440.040.02
NJITASun0.190.2241.1845.41-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.290.2122.2225.46-0.16-0.10
ChattanoogaSC0.190.2175.0074.760.090.10
HamptonMEAC0.200.1926.6740.15-0.09-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.380.1929.4134.21-0.16-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.1864.7170.610.030.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.1882.3582.770.130.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.1743.7548.36-0.04-0.01
North FloridaASun0.100.1618.7530.20-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.1617.6529.59-0.06-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.290.1521.4327.27-0.17-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.290.1562.5068.360.070.06
SamfordSC0.290.1564.7159.940.080.03
AuburnSEC0.200.1564.7154.930.060.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.1558.8252.990.020.01
LipscombASun0.200.1341.1847.61-0.03-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1337.5044.66-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.1350.0047.440.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.100.1346.6745.24-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.200.1314.2928.29-0.14-0.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.100.1343.7550.72-0.010.00
High PointBSth0.100.1333.3340.05-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1343.7549.93-0.01-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.100.1326.6725.63-0.05-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.200.1313.3314.86-0.15-0.09
FloridaSEC0.290.1282.3576.960.190.07
James MadisonCAA0.100.1227.7830.30-0.04-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1260.0072.720.000.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1218.7520.57-0.00-0.07
Michigan St.B100.360.1263.1657.750.090.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.200.126.2511.84-0.17-0.09
WoffordSC0.090.1226.6739.99-0.04-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1223.0831.10-0.10-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.290.1233.3330.18-0.10-0.05
UABCUSA0.090.1258.8263.660.020.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.1012.5024.44-0.15-0.05
HowardMEAC0.100.1012.5028.47-0.07-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1018.7535.75-0.06-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.1014.2929.37-0.07-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.290.0937.5038.15-0.07-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0943.7543.54-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0956.2555.710.010.01
La SalleA100.290.0966.6762.150.100.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0912.5033.74-0.07-0.03
DukeACC0.000.0977.7873.720.000.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.190.0975.0076.810.090.05
FurmanSC0.200.0950.0054.850.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.200.0925.0029.61-0.10-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0961.1162.130.020.02
UTSACUSA0.100.0943.7538.32-0.01-0.02
VMISC0.190.0914.2915.94-0.14-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.190.0937.5029.45-0.05-0.04
PurdueB100.190.0977.7876.220.100.05
PepperdineWCC0.100.0923.5321.79-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0920.0019.52-0.06-0.05
TexasB120.100.0941.1835.95-0.02-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0950.0066.220.000.03
HawaiiBW0.090.0940.0044.09-0.02-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0962.5057.020.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0922.2230.94-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.190.0988.8978.090.140.05
IllinoisB100.190.0964.7154.360.060.01
WisconsinB100.100.0982.3581.030.060.05
North CarolinaACC0.180.0984.2180.580.130.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.180.0957.1453.400.030.01
BaylorB120.200.0693.7580.460.170.04
HartfordAE0.000.0631.5829.37-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.200.0622.2236.06-0.11-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0014.42-0.00-0.05
SienaMAAC0.200.0638.8945.72-0.04-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0050.990.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.190.0647.3741.51-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.0633.3333.23-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.100.0661.1159.210.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0675.0058.080.050.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0658.8254.990.020.01
Air ForceMWC0.200.0643.7537.53-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.200.0647.0649.68-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0656.2551.250.000.00
IowaB100.100.0657.8950.960.020.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.0616.6721.63-0.12-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0623.5324.37-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.100.0622.2235.43-0.05-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0668.4268.160.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0677.7870.850.000.02
ColoradoP120.100.0652.9454.280.010.01
DenverSum0.100.0661.1157.830.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0662.5057.280.020.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.0655.5653.980.010.00
MississippiSEC0.100.0658.8252.810.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.100.0629.4138.91-0.04-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0646.1551.22-0.010.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0635.7136.22-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0626.6732.20-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0625.0033.65-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.100.0640.0037.09-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0612.5019.03-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0635.7148.96-0.03-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0635.2930.57-0.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7563.230.000.02
UNLVMWC0.100.0650.0045.100.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.0618.7523.85-0.06-0.03
VCUA100.100.0677.7873.920.050.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0660.0054.070.020.00
MarshallCUSA0.200.0655.5660.010.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0676.4768.380.040.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0664.7160.750.030.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0636.8448.41-0.02-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0618.7528.06-0.06-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.0637.5036.25-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0633.3341.38-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0616.6718.41-0.06-0.04
CornellIvy0.090.0620.0024.58-0.06-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0653.8558.520.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.780.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.0640.0034.51-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0671.4369.670.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0661.1158.650.020.01
USCP120.090.0684.2172.840.060.03
WyomingMWC0.090.0662.5055.530.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0633.3337.37-0.03-0.01
CreightonBE0.180.0694.4484.740.160.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0664.7147.180.03-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0688.2471.840.000.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0675.0063.150.040.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0661.1156.560.020.01
Penn St.B100.080.0661.1150.470.020.00
DaytonA100.100.0375.0076.040.050.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0364.7161.910.030.01
ManhattanMAAC0.100.0338.8938.40-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.100.0372.2264.140.040.01
New HampshireAE0.100.0353.3357.150.010.00
OregonP120.100.0388.2482.770.070.02
Oregon St.P120.100.0317.6515.00-0.06-0.02
Saint LouisA100.100.0329.4125.22-0.04-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.100.0356.2562.950.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0352.9455.240.010.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.0337.5051.06-0.020.00
William & MaryCAA0.100.0342.8647.10-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0317.6535.25-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0346.1553.13-0.000.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0323.5320.62-0.00-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.0388.2484.300.070.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3333.47-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.100.0388.2484.630.070.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0317.6524.63-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0338.8934.48-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0335.2931.83-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.090.0364.7156.530.030.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0335.7144.07-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0048.000.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0317.6521.39-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0317.6527.61-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0362.5066.050.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0388.2487.480.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0381.2572.930.060.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0364.7161.890.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0347.3745.21-0.01-0.00
AmericanPat0.100.0323.5329.81-0.05-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0341.1845.55-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0362.5054.170.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0327.7834.27-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0352.6348.240.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.100.03100.0096.910.100.03
LehighPat0.000.0356.2566.290.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0362.5060.110.000.01
TCUB120.000.0381.2565.210.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0355.5655.680.000.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0350.0051.640.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.0350.0058.430.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0350.0034.750.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.090.0352.9457.140.010.00
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0353.3354.210.010.00
IndianaB100.000.0366.6763.930.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0361.1159.190.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0383.3377.690.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0364.7161.460.030.01
MichiganB100.000.0366.6758.160.000.00
MontanaBSky0.090.0352.6360.450.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.370.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0378.9569.120.050.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0388.8977.800.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6753.190.000.00
RiderMAAC0.090.0361.1154.400.020.00
RutgersB100.000.0355.5643.070.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0350.0047.550.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.5649.900.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0345.0038.60-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0357.8952.840.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0362.5065.700.020.01
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0347.0643.82-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.0381.2576.190.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.090.0376.4762.000.050.01