live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:243.0
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:243
Current SOS:243
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:305
Expected OOC SOS:298



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17243.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Mississippi (96.0)SECA82-72L0%0.0
11-20Auburn (175.0)SECA92-62L0%0.0
11-25The Citadel (322.0)SCN90-95L0%0.0
11-27USC Upstate (324.0)ASunA80-84W100%0.0
12-2Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA76-67L0%0.0
12-15Duke (20.0)ACCA99-65L0%0.0
12-19Winthrop (130.0)BSthH81-88L0%0.0
12-22Stetson (303.0)ASunH78-58W100%0.0
12-30Texas St. (238.0)SBA80-66L0%0.0
1-2UT Arlington (105.0)SBA92-72L0%0.0
1-7South Alabama (240.0)SBH58-64L0%0.0
1-9Troy (293.0)SBH93-88W100%0.0
1-14Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH65-74L0%0.0
1-16Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH66-51W100%0.0
1-19Georgia St. (180.0)SBA69-66L0%0.0
1-25Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA100-101W100%0.0
1-28Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA80-67L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA66-71W100%0.0
2-4UT Arlington (105.0)SBH82-73W100%0.0
2-6Texas St. (238.0)SBH66-62W100%0.0
2-11Troy (293.0)SBA71-77W100%0.0
2-13South Alabama (240.0)SBA80-76L0%0.0
2-18Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH90-59W100%0.0
2-20Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH61-75L0%0.0
2-23Georgia St. (180.0)SBH54-52W100%0.0
2-25Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH88-63W100%0.0
3-3Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA83-76L0%0.0
3-5Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA87-78L0%0.0
3-10South Alabama (240.0)SBN61-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB26.5226.5242.2842.28-4.10-4.10
South AlabamaSB6.276.2732.1432.14-2.24-2.24
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.684.6848.1548.15-0.17-0.17
UT ArlingtonSB4.664.6670.0070.001.871.87
Arkansas Little RockSB4.664.6686.2186.213.373.37
Louisiana MonroeSB4.654.6558.6258.620.800.80
Texas St.SB4.654.6544.4444.44-0.52-0.52
Georgia St.SB4.624.6250.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas St.SB4.574.5733.3333.33-1.52-1.52
TroySB4.564.5625.9325.93-2.20-2.20
Appalachian St.SB4.544.5431.0331.03-1.72-1.72
MississippiSEC1.901.9061.2961.290.430.43
USC UpstateASun1.841.8425.9325.93-0.89-0.89
StetsonASun1.821.8227.5927.59-0.81-0.81
The CitadelSC1.781.7821.4321.43-1.02-1.02
Savannah St.MEAC1.781.7846.4346.43-0.13-0.13
AuburnSEC1.781.7833.3333.33-0.59-0.59
WinthropBSth1.751.7567.8667.860.630.63
DukeACC1.721.7268.7568.750.650.65
Southern MissCUSA0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
SamfordSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.200.2066.6766.670.070.07
AlabamaSEC0.200.2056.2556.250.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.190.1948.4848.48-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1742.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
MissouriSEC0.170.1732.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
North FloridaASun0.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
LipscombASun0.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
NJITASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
LSUSEC0.140.1457.5857.580.020.02
RiceCUSA0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
FurmanSC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LibertyBSth0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1120.8320.83-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
OregonP120.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
South FloridaAmer0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0957.6957.690.010.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0975.7675.760.040.04
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
VMISC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Washington St.P120.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01