Georgia Southern

Conference:	SC
Expected RPI:	266.0
Current RPI:	266
Expected SOS:	294
Current SOS:	294
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-10
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC RPI:	231
Expected OOC SOS:	258

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	266.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	85-54	L	0%
11-13	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	A	66-53	L	0%
11-21	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	A	46-62	W	100%
11-24	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	70-53	L	0%
11-28	Elon (174.0)	SC	H	50-55	L	0%
12-1	Samford (291.0)	SC	A	57-48	L	0%
12-15	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	A	73-78	W	100%
12-17	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	62-43	L	0%
12-22	Mississippi Valley St. (344.0)	SWAC	N	63-52	W	100%
12-23	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	N	74-46	L	0%
12-29	Georgia St. (209.0)	CAA	H	68-64	W	100%
1-2	UAB (144.0)	CUSA	A	65-61	L	0%
1-5	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	65-71	L	0%
1-12	Wofford (250.0)	SC	A	71-53	L	0%
1-14	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	70-57	W	100%
1-17	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	H	51-47	W	100%
1-19	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	H	55-70	L	0%
1-24	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	A	64-62	L	0%
1-26	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	A	66-72	W	100%
1-31	Furman (343.0)	SC	A	81-74	L	0%
2-2	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	H	59-57	W	100%
2-7	Appalachian St. (265.0)	SC	H	86-91	L	0%
2-9	Western Carolina (243.0)	SC	H	62-71	L	0%
2-14	The Citadel (330.0)	SC	A	57-78	W	100%
2-16	College of Charleston (133.0)	SC	A	69-60	L	0%
2-21	Wofford (250.0)	SC	H	47-53	L	0%
2-23	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	78-61	W	100%
2-27	NC Greensboro (327.0)	SC	A	60-66	W	100%
3-2	Davidson (61.0)	SC	A	83-48	L	0%
3-8	Wofford (250.0)	SC	N	44-60	W	100%
3-9	Davidson (61.0)	SC	N	86-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Georgia Southern	SC	26.39	26.39	41.38	41.38	-4.55	-4.55
Davidson	SC	5.77	5.77	79.31	79.31	3.38	3.38
Wofford	SC	5.58	5.58	35.71	35.71	-1.60	-1.60
College of Charleston	SC	4.18	4.18	74.19	74.19	2.02	2.02
Furman	SC	4.10	4.10	14.81	14.81	-2.88	-2.88
Appalachian St.	SC	4.09	4.09	40.74	40.74	-0.76	-0.76
The Citadel	SC	4.06	4.06	19.23	19.23	-2.50	-2.50
Western Carolina	SC	4.05	4.05	37.93	37.93	-0.98	-0.98
NC Greensboro	SC	2.54	2.54	25.00	25.00	-1.27	-1.27
Elon	SC	2.52	2.52	62.07	62.07	0.61	0.61
Samford	SC	2.47	2.47	30.00	30.00	-0.99	-0.99
Chattanooga	SC	2.47	2.47	37.93	37.93	-0.60	-0.60
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.80	1.80	41.94	41.94	-0.29	-0.29
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.72	1.72	10.34	10.34	-1.36	-1.36
Charlotte	A10	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Bradley	MVC	1.67	1.67	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
North Florida	ASun	1.67	1.67	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
Maryland	ACC	1.66	1.66	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.66	1.66	18.52	18.52	-1.05	-1.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.64	1.64	51.52	51.52	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	1.61	1.61	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
UAB	CUSA	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Valparaiso	Horz	1.61	1.61	77.42	77.42	0.88	0.88
Duke	ACC	0.25	0.25	84.38	84.38	0.17	0.17
Jacksonville	ASun	0.24	0.24	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.24	0.24	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Wake Forest	ACC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Clemson	ACC	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	CUSA	0.19	0.19	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.11	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.10	0.10	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.10	0.10	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Troy	SB	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	93.75	93.75	0.07	0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	79.31	79.31	0.04	0.04
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.05	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01