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Through games of Jan 30, 2015.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:107.7
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:281
Current SOS:317
Current Record:11-4
Expected Record:19-7
Current Conf Record:7-2
Expected Conf Record:15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-3
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:342



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-456.01.20%
21-569.88.16%
20-685.621.19%
19-7101.928.10%
18-8119.723.66%
17-9139.412.07%
16-10161.74.31%
15-11184.31.14%
14-12204.10.15%
13-13236.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Illinois (73.8)B10A80-71L0%0.0
11-24FIU (222.4)CUSAH78-72W100%0.0
11-29South Carolina St. (304.1)MEACH71-58W100%0.0
12-2UCF (232.8)AmerA61-59L0%0.0
12-15South Florida (230.7)AmerA63-68W100%0.0
12-18Stetson (336.0)ASunA67-76W100%0.0
12-30UT Arlington (137.8)SBA62-61L0%0.0
1-3Texas St. (207.2)SBH40-36W100%0.0
1-8Arkansas St. (266.0)SBA61-73W100%0.0
1-10South Alabama (287.3)SBA73-81W100%0.0
1-15Louisiana Lafayette (185.2)SBH78-70W100%0.0
1-17Troy (318.8)SBA75-71L0%0.0
1-22Texas St. (207.2)SBA43-45W100%0.0
1-24Louisiana Monroe (163.3)SBA53-57W100%0.0
1-29Appalachian St. (250.5)SBH83-46W100%0.0
1-31Arkansas Little Rock (276.9)SBH0-084%11.0
2-5Georgia St. (79.0)SBH0-056%1.6
2-7Louisiana Monroe (163.3)SBH0-079%8.7
2-12Arkansas St. (266.0)SBH0-088%12.9
2-14Arkansas Little Rock (276.9)SBA0-065%4.2
2-19Troy (318.8)SBH0-091%14.6
2-21South Alabama (287.3)SBH0-089%13.3
2-26Appalachian St. (250.5)SBA0-074%7.0
2-28Louisiana Lafayette (185.2)SBA0-044%-1.6
3-5UT Arlington (137.8)SBH0-074%7.1
3-7Georgia St. (79.0)SBA0-032%-5.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB26.5826.5782.6176.4617.3314.06
Georgia St.SB0.945.0865.0068.980.281.93
Appalachian St.SB4.085.0844.4440.91-0.45-0.92
Arkansas Little RockSB0.945.0836.8438.94-0.25-1.12
South AlabamaSB4.085.0827.7830.91-1.81-1.94
UT ArlingtonSB4.015.0855.5657.590.450.77
Arkansas St.SB4.185.0844.4443.13-0.46-0.70
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.885.0847.0653.50-0.230.36
Louisiana MonroeSB4.095.0756.2556.600.510.67
TroySB4.095.0725.0027.77-2.05-2.25
Texas St.SB7.215.0650.0050.070.000.01
UCFAmer3.432.0238.8937.05-0.76-0.52
South FloridaAmer3.331.9931.5833.02-1.23-0.68
StetsonASun3.521.9917.6523.41-2.28-1.06
FIUCUSA3.431.9643.7542.45-0.43-0.30
IllinoisB103.331.9260.0058.950.670.34
South Carolina St.MEAC3.331.9230.0033.39-1.33-0.64
Southern MissCUSA0.190.2423.5320.64-0.10-0.14
TulsaAmer0.260.2378.9573.600.150.11
Central ArkansasSlnd0.190.210.003.40-0.19-0.19
Green BayHorz0.000.1978.9577.960.000.11
UABCUSA0.280.1745.0049.91-0.03-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.260.1720.0020.72-0.16-0.10
HoustonAmer0.170.1740.0037.05-0.03-0.04
LamarSlnd0.300.1437.5037.53-0.07-0.04
TexasB120.300.1470.0067.330.120.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.1440.0048.23-0.04-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.280.1463.1663.400.070.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.360.140.004.66-0.36-0.13
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.260.1464.7165.450.080.04
MarshallCUSA0.190.1421.0525.57-0.11-0.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.270.1423.8125.53-0.14-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1421.0530.43-0.10-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1355.0054.130.020.01
East CarolinaAmer0.080.1333.3331.54-0.03-0.05
SMUAmer0.250.1380.0077.800.150.07
TempleAmer0.260.1366.6763.890.090.04
TulaneAmer0.170.1360.0052.490.030.01
DetroitHorz0.260.1342.8642.93-0.04-0.02
BradleyMVC0.090.1328.5727.78-0.04-0.06
PurdueB100.170.1361.9058.640.040.02
HamptonMEAC0.250.1340.0038.69-0.05-0.03
IUPUISum0.090.1336.3638.71-0.02-0.03
UTSACUSA0.210.1147.0645.69-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.190.1163.1667.490.050.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.280.1040.0040.94-0.06-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.1075.0073.840.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1026.3226.56-0.08-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.260.1052.3845.710.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.1075.0073.790.040.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1025.0037.82-0.09-0.02
MemphisAmer0.090.1065.0061.650.030.02
CharlotteCUSA0.090.1045.0052.68-0.010.01
HowardMEAC0.090.1041.1844.43-0.02-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.250.1057.8959.140.040.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1080.0079.860.060.06
AlabamaSEC0.170.1063.1658.740.050.02
HofstraCAA0.170.1063.6468.340.050.04
Miami FLACC0.170.1070.0066.140.070.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.210.0721.0533.18-0.12-0.02
SeattleWAC0.210.0747.0649.37-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.0782.3584.890.130.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0716.6721.98-0.07-0.04
FloridaSEC0.100.0755.0055.340.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0773.6866.450.050.02
LipscombASun0.000.0738.8941.90-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.0765.0063.020.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.100.0765.0063.080.030.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.0714.2917.20-0.07-0.05
North FloridaASun0.090.0755.0060.490.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0736.8440.44-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0752.3856.200.000.01
SamfordSC0.100.0736.3636.11-0.03-0.02
DavidsonA100.180.0776.4777.080.100.04
AuburnSEC0.090.0747.3738.40-0.00-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0721.4339.76-0.05-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0730.0030.14-0.04-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0742.1134.91-0.01-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0715.0019.98-0.06-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0747.3749.63-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0761.1160.460.020.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0760.0058.610.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0766.6766.030.030.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.170.0722.2240.62-0.10-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0770.0068.410.040.02
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6767.930.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0723.8126.39-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0744.4449.91-0.01-0.00
FurmanSC0.090.0727.7831.26-0.04-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0750.0046.860.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0750.0052.570.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0738.4633.52-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0770.0063.500.000.02
KentuckySEC0.090.07100.0098.410.090.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0754.5556.920.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0731.5834.29-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.090.0715.7919.24-0.06-0.04
NJITind0.090.0752.3854.400.000.01
OhioMAC0.090.0738.8935.48-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.090.0760.0057.750.020.01
RichmondA100.090.0755.0056.890.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0716.6725.21-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0755.5658.560.010.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0730.0036.10-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.090.0745.0037.39-0.01-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0738.8943.58-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0610.5319.78-0.06-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.065.2610.51-0.00-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0685.0081.560.000.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0678.9569.330.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0640.0043.69-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0044.17-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0660.0052.340.020.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6764.920.000.02
NebraskaB100.080.0660.0049.450.02-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0650.0043.420.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.090.0438.8941.66-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0450.0061.990.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0447.0652.46-0.010.00
WyomingMWC0.090.0478.9573.790.050.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.0331.5831.12-0.04-0.01
HartfordAE0.100.0350.0050.620.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0315.0017.47-0.06-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.0340.0038.90-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0385.0078.450.070.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0335.2933.06-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0325.0027.87-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0365.0068.720.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0345.0046.68-0.01-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0335.2932.56-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0327.2731.53-0.04-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0350.0058.090.000.01
FordhamA100.080.0323.5324.42-0.04-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0320.0027.25-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0357.1462.480.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0315.0023.63-0.06-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0372.2277.840.040.02
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0338.1041.77-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0323.5328.20-0.04-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0352.3840.080.00-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.03100.0094.030.080.03
WashingtonP120.080.0370.0063.140.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0376.4771.300.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0359.0956.200.020.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0370.0063.270.030.01
AmericanPat0.080.0352.3854.030.000.00
BaylorB120.080.0373.6869.390.040.01
BrownIvy0.080.0338.8936.84-0.02-0.01
IndianaB100.080.0371.4366.610.030.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0345.0043.94-0.01-0.00
IowaB100.000.0365.0063.420.000.01
MarylandB100.080.0381.8276.480.050.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0357.1454.290.010.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0331.5830.47-0.03-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0377.2777.580.040.02
OregonP120.080.0366.6761.400.030.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6754.170.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0345.4536.52-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0390.0084.610.060.02
WisconsinB100.000.0390.0087.310.000.02