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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:224.2
Current RPI:157
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:65
Current Record:0-1
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:0-1
Expected OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-524.00.01%
20-672.30.06%
19-789.90.32%
18-8101.60.75%
17-9121.72.38%
16-10144.54.68%
15-11164.18.26%
14-12186.612.99%
13-13208.415.68%
12-14230.216.79%
11-15252.314.90%
10-16272.210.96%
9-17291.26.56%
8-18308.13.49%
7-19320.41.51%
6-20328.70.51%
5-21333.30.10%
4-22341.50.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Illinois (42.2)B10A80-71L0%0.0
11-24FIU (211.3)CUSAH0-062%3.5
11-29South Carolina St. (295.8)MEACH0-079%9.6
12-2UCF (194.5)AmerA0-029%-6.7
12-15South Florida (166.5)AmerA0-027%-7.3
12-18Stetson (317.3)ASunA0-059%2.6
12-30UT Arlington (158.6)SBA0-031%-6.1
1-3Texas St. (183.0)SBH0-059%2.8
1-8Arkansas St. (244.5)SBA0-039%-3.3
1-10South Alabama (252.1)SBA0-044%-1.7
1-15Louisiana Lafayette (204.2)SBH0-057%2.1
1-17Troy (236.5)SBA0-039%-3.5
1-22Texas St. (183.0)SBA0-036%-4.4
1-24Louisiana Monroe (122.7)SBA0-024%-8.6
1-29Appalachian St. (331.6)SBH0-087%13.7
1-31Arkansas Little Rock (188.4)SBH0-055%1.6
2-5Georgia St. (133.3)SBH0-044%-1.7
2-7Louisiana Monroe (122.7)SBH0-045%-1.5
2-12Arkansas St. (244.5)SBH0-063%3.9
2-14Arkansas Little Rock (188.4)SBA0-032%-5.5
2-19Troy (236.5)SBH0-062%3.7
2-21South Alabama (252.1)SBH0-068%5.5
2-26Appalachian St. (331.6)SBA0-071%6.5
2-28Louisiana Lafayette (204.2)SBA0-034%-5.0
3-5UT Arlington (158.6)SBH0-054%1.1
3-7Georgia St. (133.3)SBA0-023%-8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB33.3326.590.0048.29-33.33-0.91
Georgia St.SB0.005.100.0057.58-0.000.77
South AlabamaSB0.005.100.0038.25-0.00-1.20
Appalachian St.SB0.005.100.0015.28-0.00-3.54
UT ArlingtonSB0.005.1066.6754.000.000.41
Arkansas St.SB0.005.100.0044.22-0.00-0.59
Arkansas Little RockSB0.005.090.0050.63-0.000.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.005.090.0048.08-0.00-0.20
TroySB0.005.090.0046.04-0.00-0.40
Louisiana MonroeSB0.005.0850.0062.250.001.25
Texas St.SB0.005.08100.0052.870.000.29
UCFAmer0.002.02100.0044.660.00-0.22
South FloridaAmer0.001.99100.0043.650.00-0.25
StetsonASun0.001.990.0031.80-0.00-0.72
FIUCUSA0.001.96100.0043.790.00-0.24
IllinoisB1050.001.92100.0064.4550.000.56
South Carolina St.MEAC0.001.920.0032.31-0.00-0.68
TulsaAmer0.000.2466.6752.000.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2350.0052.770.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.210.0020.87-0.00-0.12
Green BayHorz0.000.200.0065.86-0.000.06
UABCUSA0.000.170.0043.40-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.170.0024.25-0.00-0.09
HoustonAmer0.000.17100.0065.750.000.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.150.0053.20-0.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.140.0062.16-0.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.140.0033.17-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.14100.0084.130.000.10
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.140.0016.72-0.00-0.09
USC UpstateASun0.000.14100.0050.220.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.140.0046.41-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.140.0027.11-0.00-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.140.0034.26-0.00-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.1366.6751.090.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.130.0034.69-0.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.13100.0060.570.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.1333.3367.72-0.000.05
TempleAmer0.000.1366.6760.730.000.03
TulaneAmer0.000.1350.0033.930.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0055.45-0.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1333.3359.35-0.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.130.0048.03-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1333.3330.78-0.00-0.05
UTSACUSA0.000.110.0028.13-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.10100.0071.730.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1066.6768.330.000.04
Austin PeayOVC8.330.100.0029.88-8.33-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1033.3335.37-0.00-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.000.1050.0056.300.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.10100.0064.850.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.100.0065.36-0.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0034.15-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.10100.0070.040.000.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.10100.0075.400.000.05
AlabamaSEC0.000.10100.0055.900.000.01
HofstraCAA0.000.1066.6763.800.000.03
Miami FLACC0.000.10100.0073.200.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.10100.0077.160.000.05
FloridaSEC0.000.0766.6766.600.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0775.0062.010.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0038.83-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3332.57-0.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0733.3347.72-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.070.0067.54-0.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0040.22-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0766.6742.560.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0069.310.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0766.6757.590.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0067.860.000.03
LipscombASun0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0045.64-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0766.6760.220.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.07100.0057.620.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0035.31-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0049.10-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0733.3338.27-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.79-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0750.0059.030.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.07100.0048.380.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3343.51-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0725.0029.11-0.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0036.560.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0750.0028.860.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0733.3336.04-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0035.880.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0733.3363.82-0.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC8.330.070.0031.68-8.33-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0041.45-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.070.0025.34-0.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6759.850.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0025.820.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0052.690.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0750.0049.560.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0025.67-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.07100.0086.080.000.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0024.76-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0733.3328.81-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0054.660.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.07100.0051.000.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0750.0062.660.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0062.910.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.07100.0041.370.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.070.0055.60-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0750.0043.330.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0027.18-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0062.840.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.06100.0061.270.000.01
MichiganB100.000.06100.0066.870.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0666.6771.300.000.03
NebraskaB100.000.06100.0051.030.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.06100.0043.710.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0033.70-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0045.03-0.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0450.0065.390.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0433.3365.68-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.040.0047.54-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.04100.0056.150.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0029.61-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0325.0057.21-0.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0034.73-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0037.45-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0048.22-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.20-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0069.29-0.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0076.260.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0056.460.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.030.0038.57-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0366.6738.630.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0043.82-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0079.370.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0350.0031.730.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.630.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
AmericanPat0.000.0366.6764.270.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.03100.0061.540.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0333.3338.39-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.03100.0063.850.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.340.000.00
IowaB100.000.0350.0067.840.000.01
MarylandB100.000.03100.0063.680.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0350.0063.730.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6750.370.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.140.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.03100.0073.590.000.02
OregonP120.000.03100.0070.690.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0375.0045.210.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0350.0036.270.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0057.560.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0067.360.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.110.000.02