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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:167.0
Current RPI:194
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:292
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:164



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-851.40.05%
20-954.50.15%
19-1070.60.66%
18-1185.01.73%
17-1299.33.96%
16-13115.77.94%
15-14131.713.08%
14-15150.116.77%
13-16168.417.57%
12-17189.215.60%
11-18208.111.24%
10-19229.26.68%
9-20247.23.08%
8-21264.91.08%
7-22282.90.32%
6-23295.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA81-79L0%0.0
11-20Mercer (163.6)SCA80-67L0%0.0
11-22Akron (74.5)MACA75-67L0%0.0
11-25Florida A&M (346.2)MEACN72-83W100%0.0
11-26Radford (250.4)BSthN65-64W100%0.0
12-1Savannah St. (339.8)MEACA75-94W100%0.0
12-4Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunH0-039%-3.4
12-9Minnesota (46.1)B10A0-09%-16.2
12-13Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA0-021%-9.6
12-15FIU (267.5)CUSAA0-053%1.0
12-20Winthrop (119.7)BSthA0-030%-6.3
12-31Georgia St. (75.2)SBH0-036%-4.2
1-7Troy (265.2)SBH0-077%8.8
1-9South Alabama (126.4)SBH0-052%0.5
1-14Louisiana Lafayette (110.0)SBA0-027%-7.3
1-16Louisiana Monroe (242.9)SBA0-054%1.1
1-21Appalachian St. (238.2)SBH0-070%6.2
1-23Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBH0-063%4.0
1-28South Alabama (126.4)SBA0-032%-5.7
1-30Troy (265.2)SBA0-059%2.6
2-4Louisiana Monroe (242.9)SBH0-073%7.3
2-6Louisiana Lafayette (110.0)SBH0-046%-1.1
2-11Coastal Carolina (213.3)SBA0-043%-2.1
2-13Appalachian St. (238.2)SBA0-050%0.1
2-18Texas St. (251.4)SBH0-069%6.1
2-20UT Arlington (72.7)SBH0-039%-3.4
2-25Arkansas St. (68.6)SBA0-022%-9.2
2-27Little Rock (161.3)SBA0-034%-5.1
3-4Georgia St. (75.2)SBA0-019%-10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSB28.9726.3665.3850.268.910.14
Georgia St.SB0.004.2960.0067.060.001.46
South AlabamaSB0.004.2083.3361.350.000.95
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.2066.6761.200.000.94
Appalachian St.SB0.004.1920.0035.68-0.00-1.20
Coastal CarolinaSB0.004.1728.5738.88-0.00-0.93
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.1720.0032.31-0.00-1.48
TroySB0.004.1733.3332.23-0.00-1.48
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.003.5150.0071.440.001.50
UT ArlingtonSB0.002.7257.1465.080.000.82
Arkansas St.SB0.002.6685.7168.060.000.96
Little RockSB0.002.6360.0057.600.000.40
Texas St.SB0.002.6350.0043.780.00-0.33
FIUCUSA0.001.8516.6733.23-0.00-0.62
RadfordBSth9.721.8540.0037.66-1.94-0.46
MinnesotaB100.001.8485.7164.820.000.55
North Carolina St.ACC8.331.7966.6748.922.78-0.04
WinthropBSth0.001.7960.0070.520.000.73
AkronMAC9.721.7880.0068.765.830.67
MercerSC9.721.7840.0051.37-1.940.05
Florida A&MMEAC8.331.760.0024.36-8.33-0.90
Savannah St.MEAC8.331.760.0025.12-8.33-0.87
StetsonASun1.390.2828.5728.26-0.60-0.12
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2557.1459.480.000.05
NJITASun0.000.2242.8650.32-0.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.210.0018.22-0.00-0.14
ChattanoogaSC0.000.2166.6769.810.000.08
HamptonMEAC0.000.190.0034.18-0.00-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.690.1928.5730.29-0.30-0.07
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.1850.0064.840.000.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1885.7173.010.000.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1850.0043.490.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.1614.2931.71-0.00-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1616.6736.35-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1520.0034.39-0.00-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1540.0067.95-0.000.05
SamfordSC0.000.1557.1455.810.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.1583.3355.200.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.690.1571.4352.370.300.01
LipscombASun0.000.1314.2933.07-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1316.6737.09-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.1333.3338.20-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.1325.0033.54-0.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1325.0038.72-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.1320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.1350.0051.260.000.00
LibertyBSth0.000.1340.0050.71-0.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.1325.0024.66-0.00-0.06
PresbyterianBSth0.000.1333.3327.13-0.00-0.06
FloridaSEC0.690.1287.5075.320.520.06
James MadisonCAA0.000.120.0028.15-0.00-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1266.6775.370.000.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1216.6718.96-0.00-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0013.30-0.00-0.09
Michigan St.B100.000.1250.0061.590.000.03
UABCUSA0.000.1257.1461.940.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.120.0033.58-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.690.1242.8637.60-0.10-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.120.0020.01-0.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1016.6731.91-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.100.0038.26-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.100.0038.35-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0027.77-0.00-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0966.6751.090.000.00
DavidsonA100.690.0983.3368.880.460.04
La SalleA100.000.0960.0051.780.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0987.5078.680.000.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0983.3380.700.000.06
FurmanSC0.000.0920.0049.38-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.600.0928.5734.18-0.26-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.690.0966.6732.240.23-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0966.6765.810.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0950.0050.940.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
VMISC0.690.090.0021.15-0.69-0.05
PurdueB100.000.0971.4374.450.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0933.3323.33-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.0950.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0957.1467.020.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6756.020.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0914.2929.15-0.00-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.000.0985.7162.410.000.02
IllinoisB100.600.0957.1442.660.09-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0975.0073.840.000.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.30-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0985.7180.010.000.05
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.32-0.00-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0625.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Air ForceMWC1.390.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer1.390.0675.0047.510.69-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0642.8646.78-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0671.4355.750.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
IowaB100.600.0642.8644.33-0.09-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC1.190.0616.6729.36-0.79-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0633.3343.64-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0628.5750.20-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6754.380.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0650.0051.820.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0625.0030.93-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.25-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0640.0030.80-0.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.060.0034.01-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0683.3350.740.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0620.0042.63-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0056.71-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0671.4349.590.00-0.00
USCP120.000.06100.0075.380.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
CreightonBE0.600.06100.0076.650.600.03
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0666.6739.720.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0685.7156.490.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0685.7172.660.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
Iowa St.B120.600.0371.4368.970.260.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0333.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.600.0385.7159.740.430.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0057.480.000.00
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.600.0375.0074.990.300.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0325.0056.92-0.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0340.0055.44-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.03100.0069.770.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.170.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0325.0024.28-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
AmericanPat0.690.0316.6735.65-0.46-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0350.0052.330.000.00
BradleyMVC0.000.0350.0029.280.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3345.60-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0019.30-0.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.040.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0080.780.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0342.8650.36-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0342.8634.17-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0333.3367.01-0.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0061.810.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0383.3357.990.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.0366.6754.420.200.00
MichiganB100.000.0371.4366.530.000.01
MontanaBSky0.600.0314.2947.44-0.43-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0383.3344.770.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.600.0350.0046.780.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0350.0046.670.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01