live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Georgia Southern

Conference:SC
Expected RPI:303.0
Current RPI:303
Expected SOS:342
Current SOS:342
Current Record:12-19
Expected Record:12-19
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-19303.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Miami FL (110.0)ACCA81-80L0%0.0
11-21West Virginia (88.0)B12A101-68L0%0.0
11-23Old Dominion (170.0)CUSAA86-69L0%0.0
11-26Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndN65-67L0%0.0
11-27Presbyterian (349.0)BSthN66-76W100%0.0
11-30Campbell (316.0)BSthH73-75L0%0.0
12-7South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA61-79W100%0.0
12-15UAB (152.0)CUSAA84-62L0%0.0
12-18Kennesaw St. (324.0)ASunH73-55W100%0.0
12-20Georgia St. (76.0)SBA73-61L0%0.0
12-28North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACA63-66W100%0.0
12-30Campbell (316.0)BSthA69-63L0%0.0
1-4Samford (313.0)SCH80-78W100%0.0
1-11Western Carolina (221.0)SCH67-68L0%0.0
1-16Furman (339.0)SCH88-81W100%0.0
1-18Appalachian St. (335.0)SCA81-68L0%0.0
1-23Wofford (153.0)SCH64-74L0%0.0
1-25Davidson (126.0)SCA82-52L0%0.0
1-30The Citadel (345.0)SCH83-52W100%0.0
2-1UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCA62-64W100%0.0
2-6Wofford (153.0)SCA74-61L0%0.0
2-8Elon (162.0)SCA60-59L0%0.0
2-13UNC Greensboro (301.0)SCH56-68L0%0.0
2-15Davidson (126.0)SCH73-88L0%0.0
2-20Chattanooga (243.0)SCA61-77W100%0.0
2-22Elon (162.0)SCH61-66L0%0.0
2-27Furman (339.0)SCA73-82W100%0.0
3-1The Citadel (345.0)SCA80-63L0%0.0
3-7Furman (339.0)SCN65-50W100%0.0
3-8Chattanooga (243.0)SCN55-62W100%0.0
3-9Wofford (153.0)SCN71-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Georgia SouthernSC26.5326.5342.1842.18-4.15-4.15
WoffordSC5.655.6553.8553.850.430.43
FurmanSC5.585.5829.1729.17-2.33-2.33
The CitadelSC4.154.1511.1111.11-3.23-3.23
DavidsonSC4.104.1058.6258.620.710.71
ChattanoogaSC4.074.0755.5655.560.450.45
UNC GreensboroSC4.004.0037.0437.04-1.04-1.04
ElonSC3.953.9551.8551.850.150.15
CampbellBSth3.283.2826.9226.92-1.52-1.52
Western CarolinaSC2.592.5950.0050.000.000.00
SamfordSC2.572.5734.4834.48-0.80-0.80
Appalachian St.SC2.502.5016.0016.00-1.70-1.70
PresbyterianBSth1.981.9813.7913.79-1.43-1.43
Old DominionCUSA1.721.7246.8846.88-0.11-0.11
Georgia St.SB1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
UABCUSA1.691.6953.5753.570.120.12
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.671.6726.6726.67-0.78-0.78
Kennesaw St.ASun1.671.6714.2914.29-1.19-1.19
South Carolina St.MEAC1.661.6625.9325.93-0.80-0.80
West VirginiaB121.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
Miami FLACC1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSlnd1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
High PointBSth0.360.3650.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.340.3450.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.310.3160.0060.000.060.06
Virginia TechACC0.270.2729.0329.03-0.11-0.11
LibertyBSth0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
VMIBSth0.250.2555.5655.560.030.03
GeorgiaSEC0.250.2559.3859.380.050.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.250.2541.9441.94-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.240.2454.8454.840.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.240.2444.8344.83-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.220.2283.8783.870.150.15
North Carolina St.ACC0.220.2261.7661.760.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
ClemsonACC0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
StetsonASun0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Savannah St.MEAC0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
Saint LouisA100.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
North CarolinaACC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
MarshallCUSA0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
DukeACC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
CincinnatiAmer0.120.1281.8281.820.070.07
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
VCUA100.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
FordhamA100.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
MinnesotaB100.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
USC UpstateASun0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
UTSACUSA0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
TexasB120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0624.0024.00-0.03-0.03
ColoradoP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MercerASun0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
NavyPat0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
TowsonCAA0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01