Arkansas St.

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	163.0
Current RPI:	163
Expected SOS:	239
Current SOS:	239
Current Record:	18-12
Expected Record:	18-12
Current Conf Record:	13-9
Expected Conf Record:	13-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-4
Current OOC Record:	5-3
Expected OOC Record:	5-3
Expected OOC RPI:	198
Expected OOC SOS:	328

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	163.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Dayton (114.0)	A10	A	74-61	L	0%
11-16	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	73-77	W	100%
11-21	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	72-73	W	100%
11-25	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	93-53	W	100%
11-29	Florida International (111.0)	SB	A	80-61	L	0%
12-1	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	A	72-65	L	0%
12-8	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	H	73-70	W	100%
12-16	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	69-57	W	100%
12-19	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	H	54-61	L	0%
12-22	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	A	73-69	L	0%
12-27	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	H	87-70	W	100%
12-29	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	A	54-63	W	100%
1-3	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	H	66-60	W	100%
1-5	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	H	75-61	W	100%
1-10	Florida International (111.0)	SB	H	64-66	L	0%
1-12	Louisiana Lafayette (221.0)	SB	A	61-56	L	0%
1-19	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	H	63-39	W	100%
1-24	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	74-67	L	0%
1-26	Florida Atlantic (218.0)	SB	H	63-38	W	100%
1-31	South Alabama (154.0)	SB	H	74-62	W	100%
2-2	North Texas (247.0)	SB	H	75-66	W	100%
2-7	Middle Tennessee (28.0)	SB	A	73-60	L	0%
2-9	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	49-67	W	100%
2-14	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	H	86-62	W	100%
2-16	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	54-87	W	100%
2-23	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	58-50	W	100%
2-28	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	74-50	L	0%
3-2	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	78-71	L	0%
3-9	Troy (279.0)	SB	N	68-63	W	100%
3-10	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	N	56-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas St.	SB	26.55	26.55	62.30	62.30	6.53	6.53
Western Kentucky	SB	6.26	6.26	58.06	58.06	1.01	1.01
Troy	SB	6.08	6.08	36.67	36.67	-1.62	-1.62
Florida International	SB	4.58	4.58	53.33	53.33	0.31	0.31
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.54	4.54	36.67	36.67	-1.21	-1.21
Middle Tennessee	SB	4.51	4.51	87.10	87.10	3.35	3.35
Florida Atlantic	SB	4.51	4.51	41.38	41.38	-0.78	-0.78
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	4.48	4.48	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
North Texas	SB	4.48	4.48	35.71	35.71	-1.28	-1.28
South Alabama	SB	4.46	4.46	61.54	61.54	1.03	1.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.46	4.46	16.00	16.00	-3.03	-3.03
Murray St.	OVC	1.88	1.88	64.29	64.29	0.54	0.54
Tennessee Martin	OVC	1.87	1.87	25.93	25.93	-0.90	-0.90
Austin Peay	OVC	1.86	1.86	21.43	21.43	-1.06	-1.06
Lamar	Slnd	1.83	1.83	10.00	10.00	-1.47	-1.47
Dayton	A10	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Central Arkansas	Slnd	1.75	1.75	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.69	1.69	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	1.67	1.67	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.28	0.28	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.27	0.27	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.25	0.25	80.65	80.65	0.15	0.15
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.23	0.23	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.20	0.20	28.00	28.00	-0.09	-0.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.18	0.18	35.71	35.71	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.17	0.17	17.86	17.86	-0.11	-0.11
Belmont	OVC	0.17	0.17	80.00	80.00	0.10	0.10
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.17	0.17	85.19	85.19	0.12	0.12
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.16	0.16	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
IUPUI	Sum	0.16	0.16	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	85.29	85.29	0.09	0.09
Florida St.	ACC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	70.37	70.37	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.09	0.09	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Monmouth	NEC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00