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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:76.0
Current RPI:18
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:45
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:34
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-322.00.01%
26-423.50.19%
25-529.10.80%
24-634.63.24%
23-742.46.61%
22-850.512.44%
21-960.317.11%
20-1072.118.16%
19-1184.616.53%
18-1299.612.36%
17-13115.27.26%
16-14132.93.37%
15-15151.21.36%
14-16168.50.45%
13-17185.90.09%
12-18202.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11North Dakota St. (147.0)SumA76-66L0%0.0
11-17Georgetown (97.1)BEA72-78W100%0.0
11-19Army (190.2)PatA57-60W100%0.0
11-20Chattanooga (86.7)SCN67-73W100%0.0
11-22SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCH75-57W100%0.0
11-27Lehigh (91.3)PatH97-89W100%0.0
11-30Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzH78-51W100%0.0
12-3TCU (45.1)B12A77-54L0%0.0
12-14Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCA0-063%4.0
12-16Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndA0-077%9.0
12-21Alabama (122.0)SECN0-038%-3.6
12-23Minnesota (36.2)B10A0-017%-11.3
12-31Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH0-061%3.5
1-2Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBH0-088%14.0
1-7Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBA0-060%3.0
1-9Appalachian St. (269.1)SBA0-072%6.8
1-14Little Rock (151.3)SBA0-048%-0.6
1-21Troy (247.7)SBH0-086%12.8
1-23South Alabama (143.9)SBH0-071%6.7
1-28Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBA0-074%7.7
1-30Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA0-041%-2.8
2-4Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH0-086%13.1
2-6Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBH0-078%9.3
2-11UT Arlington (67.2)SBA0-034%-5.0
2-13Texas St. (265.1)SBA0-068%5.5
2-18Little Rock (151.3)SBH0-068%5.7
2-25Georgia Southern (189.8)SBH0-077%8.9
2-27Georgia St. (105.9)SBH0-062%3.6
3-2Troy (247.7)SBA0-071%6.5
3-4South Alabama (143.9)SBA0-051%0.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas St.SB28.4226.2782.3570.7118.3910.88
Little RockSB0.004.2066.6762.780.001.07
Coastal CarolinaSB0.454.0925.0039.41-0.22-0.87
Louisiana MonroeSB0.454.0616.6730.60-0.30-1.58
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.0671.4365.050.001.22
South AlabamaSB0.004.0371.4359.400.000.76
TroySB0.004.0342.8637.26-0.00-1.03
Appalachian St.SB0.004.0316.6730.50-0.00-1.57
Texas St.SB0.392.5750.0043.790.00-0.32
Georgia SouthernSB0.002.5742.8644.34-0.00-0.29
UT ArlingtonSB0.002.5762.5067.430.000.89
Georgia St.SB0.002.5450.0061.450.000.58
Central ArkansasSlnd0.891.8412.5030.64-0.67-0.71
ChattanoogaSC6.251.8183.3375.744.170.93
MinnesotaB100.001.7887.5067.530.000.62
Tennessee MartinOVC0.451.7575.0055.310.220.19
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC6.251.7557.1443.550.89-0.23
ArmyPat6.251.7550.0051.880.000.07
AlabamaSEC0.001.7257.1451.440.000.05
LehighPat6.251.7250.0069.140.000.66
Cleveland St.Horz6.251.7033.3332.56-2.08-0.59
GeorgetownBE6.251.6762.5049.491.56-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum6.251.6750.0057.360.000.25
TCUB126.251.67100.0060.366.250.35
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2957.1450.080.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.1750.0046.410.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1785.7157.450.000.03
TexasB120.000.1757.1438.680.00-0.04
NavyPat0.450.1525.0037.38-0.22-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.140.0034.81-0.00-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1442.8638.63-0.00-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.350.140.0017.13-0.35-0.09
Western CarolinaSC0.000.1228.5723.12-0.00-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.450.1240.0041.12-0.09-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1242.8645.01-0.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1212.5030.68-0.00-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0022.31-0.00-0.07
UNC GreensboroSC0.450.1271.4356.260.190.01
AmericanPat0.000.1214.2931.35-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1233.3336.74-0.00-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1242.8654.90-0.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.1266.6766.340.000.04
ColgatePat0.000.1212.5029.71-0.00-0.05
HawaiiBW0.390.1250.0050.450.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.1237.5047.37-0.00-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.1233.3333.36-0.00-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.000.1242.8645.94-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.1250.0061.240.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.1262.5056.520.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.1275.0048.030.22-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.1228.5728.24-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.1142.8633.23-0.00-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1142.8638.17-0.00-0.03
XavierBE0.890.1187.5070.890.670.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.1185.7166.190.000.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.110.0017.61-0.00-0.07
MississippiSEC0.000.1175.0048.500.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1150.0066.300.000.04
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1157.1452.030.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1140.0041.93-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1142.8637.34-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1120.0041.92-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1125.0055.33-0.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.350.1171.4354.310.150.01
WisconsinB100.350.1177.7876.040.190.06
IUPUISum0.390.0937.5051.64-0.100.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0051.040.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0950.0050.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.390.0916.6730.34-0.26-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0942.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.46-0.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.000.0950.0064.350.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0942.8651.95-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0987.5076.230.000.05
TulsaAmer0.000.0950.0038.050.00-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0962.5051.790.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.090.0023.69-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.0914.2936.02-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0957.1471.940.000.04
St. BonaventureA100.000.0971.4370.390.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0916.6738.58-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0975.0075.340.000.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.390.0957.1449.130.06-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0911.1148.19-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.450.0912.5033.65-0.33-0.03
FloridaSEC0.000.0987.5075.240.000.04
KentuckySEC0.450.0987.5082.800.330.06
UNLVMWC0.450.0962.5043.800.11-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.990.000.04
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0850.0046.240.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0875.0066.410.000.03
OregonP120.790.0875.0072.250.400.04
ButlerBE0.000.08100.0074.440.000.04
MarylandB100.350.0887.5059.330.260.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0837.5037.03-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0671.4351.460.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.02
DukeACC0.000.0688.8978.400.000.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.0671.4370.210.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0622.2226.33-0.00-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0642.8655.09-0.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3354.32-0.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.020.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0016.68-0.00-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0633.3356.24-0.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0685.7170.060.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0628.5723.78-0.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.450.0614.2932.19-0.32-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.450.0637.5044.39-0.11-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0021.22-0.00-0.03
DuquesneA100.450.0644.4442.03-0.05-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0625.0031.41-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.8645.44-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0650.0071.020.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0628.5732.62-0.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.990.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0657.1433.230.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
USCP120.000.06100.0076.680.000.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0675.0054.490.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6754.050.000.00
IndianaB100.390.0687.5074.490.290.03
La SalleA100.450.0666.6755.540.150.01
NJITASun0.000.0650.0049.780.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0061.490.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.450.0660.0067.760.090.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.590.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.350.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.01
WashingtonP120.890.0657.1452.370.130.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.660.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.350.0544.4441.30-0.04-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0540.0054.54-0.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.05100.0076.630.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6735.430.00-0.02
MichiganB100.000.0575.0066.460.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0555.5658.610.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0587.5068.610.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0566.6746.420.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0575.0056.590.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0571.4354.560.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0542.8650.12-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.05100.0084.840.000.04
High PointBSth0.450.0342.8646.48-0.06-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.450.0360.0058.590.090.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.450.030.0020.75-0.45-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.390.0342.8658.58-0.060.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.450.0325.0030.23-0.22-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.450.0387.5081.960.330.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.450.0325.0063.27-0.220.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.450.0322.2241.71-0.25-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3339.94-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.93-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.450.0342.8663.41-0.060.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1448.500.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0043.560.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.450.0342.8642.62-0.06-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.450.0371.4359.880.190.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.450.0316.6739.78-0.30-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.310.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.450.0357.1454.360.060.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0375.0070.620.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.480.000.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.450.0314.2926.74-0.32-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0320.0037.65-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0366.6766.860.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.350.0371.4359.470.150.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.350.0316.6744.34-0.23-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0362.5050.710.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.820.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.170.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0058.040.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0371.4366.700.000.01