live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Dec 16, 2014.


Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:279.3
Current RPI:338
Expected SOS:230
Current SOS:338
Current Record:1-4
Expected Record:9-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:1-4
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:316
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-10141.00.01%
17-11134.20.04%
16-12163.60.25%
15-13179.00.68%
14-14199.12.06%
13-15219.85.29%
12-16239.88.95%
11-17258.214.34%
10-18276.117.65%
9-19291.618.54%
8-20304.314.50%
7-21314.29.67%
6-22322.35.10%
5-23328.82.07%
4-24334.60.70%
3-25339.00.13%
2-26340.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Tennessee Martin (146.2)OVCH73-75L0%0.0
11-25Lamar (281.4)SlndH58-63L0%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (342.4)SlndA49-67W100%0.0
12-10Purdue (60.3)B10A87-46L0%0.0
12-13Toledo (121.8)MACA73-65L0%0.0
12-17Mississippi St. (176.6)SECA0-014%-12.6
12-20Marshall (215.1)CUSAH0-049%-0.4
12-23Niagara (274.0)MAACA0-038%-3.7
12-30South Alabama (242.5)SBA0-027%-7.3
1-3Appalachian St. (270.6)SBH0-069%6.0
1-5Louisiana Monroe (200.3)SBA0-024%-8.5
1-8Georgia Southern (127.1)SBH0-037%-3.9
1-10UT Arlington (139.5)SBA0-019%-10.2
1-15Appalachian St. (270.6)SBA0-040%-2.9
1-17Texas St. (197.3)SBH0-055%1.6
1-19Georgia St. (62.8)SBH0-025%-8.1
1-22Louisiana Lafayette (186.4)SBA0-019%-10.2
1-24Troy (269.1)SBA0-030%-6.3
1-29Arkansas Little Rock (263.7)SBH0-063%3.8
1-31Georgia St. (62.8)SBA0-07%-17.1
2-5Troy (269.1)SBH0-059%2.6
2-12Georgia Southern (127.1)SBA0-014%-12.9
2-19Arkansas Little Rock (263.7)SBA0-033%-5.2
2-21Louisiana Monroe (200.3)SBH0-052%0.5
2-26UT Arlington (139.5)SBH0-046%-1.2
2-28Texas St. (197.3)SBA0-027%-7.4
3-5South Alabama (242.5)SBH0-055%1.6
3-7Louisiana Lafayette (186.4)SBH0-046%-1.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas St.SB28.0626.5325.9334.06-13.51-8.46
Arkansas Little RockSB0.624.7642.8638.30-0.09-1.11
TroySB0.624.7533.3340.89-0.21-0.87
Texas St.SB0.714.7560.0046.880.14-0.30
Georgia St.SB0.004.7471.4372.050.002.09
Appalachian St.SB0.004.7342.8632.24-0.00-1.68
South AlabamaSB0.004.730.0037.99-0.00-1.14
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.7355.5655.000.000.47
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.7342.8651.70-0.000.16
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.7233.3345.89-0.00-0.39
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.7260.0063.250.001.25
Central ArkansasSlnd10.001.950.0016.53-10.00-1.31
LamarSlnd10.001.890.0029.50-10.00-0.77
MarshallCUSA0.001.7925.0038.50-0.00-0.41
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.7957.1446.320.00-0.13
NiagaraMAAC0.001.7914.2931.08-0.00-0.68
PurdueB1010.001.7970.0062.184.000.43
Tennessee MartinOVC10.001.7966.6766.423.330.59
ToledoMAC10.001.7950.0054.490.000.16
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.2525.0049.05-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.230.0035.83-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2250.0032.740.00-0.08
Green BayHorz0.000.1871.4377.180.000.10
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1762.5078.030.000.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.160.0019.38-0.00-0.10
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1620.0039.53-0.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.450.1520.0026.66-0.27-0.07
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1322.2231.80-0.00-0.05
FIUCUSA0.000.1350.0054.480.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0074.020.000.06
TexasB120.000.1390.0081.780.000.08
TulsaAmer0.000.1355.5657.230.000.02
IllinoisB100.000.1370.0066.410.000.04
MississippiSEC0.000.1366.6751.450.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1255.5665.940.000.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1271.4360.170.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.1275.0069.770.000.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1287.5080.890.000.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1020.0026.45-0.00-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1066.6773.810.000.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1042.8635.74-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.1066.6772.470.000.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.1066.6758.510.000.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.620.1044.4447.24-0.07-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1033.3338.27-0.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0039.09-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1011.1143.47-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1060.0064.780.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.1062.5059.380.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0933.3343.11-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.450.0933.3331.09-0.15-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0920.0047.17-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0970.0066.510.000.03
Iowa St.B120.710.0988.8964.670.560.03
AuburnSEC0.000.0937.5032.05-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB101.340.0966.6742.930.45-0.01
BYUWCC0.450.0966.6767.890.150.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0944.4444.49-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.710.0980.0057.560.430.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0966.6755.560.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.090.0013.85-0.00-0.07
KentuckySEC0.000.09100.0094.460.000.08
DetroitHorz0.560.0950.0053.430.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.020.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0922.2245.74-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0960.0056.480.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.560.090.0011.59-0.56-0.07
MissouriSEC0.450.0944.4431.46-0.05-0.03
OaklandHorz0.560.0930.0031.51-0.22-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.450.0975.0060.540.230.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0038.78-0.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5045.72-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0722.2236.43-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0750.0048.280.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0711.1129.36-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0750.0030.140.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.62-0.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0733.3339.81-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0058.490.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0023.06-0.00-0.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0716.6725.01-0.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0728.5726.77-0.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5639.260.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0622.2230.22-0.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0610.0040.34-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.02-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0642.8638.69-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0644.4444.67-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2242.30-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.710.0625.0033.31-0.36-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.65-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0061.890.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4440.58-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0051.980.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0029.22-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.0677.7851.200.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0640.0044.19-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0644.4449.79-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0677.7877.550.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.0633.3343.17-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.270.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0037.01-0.00-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.60-0.00-0.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.840.000.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0644.4456.62-0.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0625.0027.78-0.00-0.03
NJITind0.000.0636.3641.92-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0671.4360.450.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0637.5046.01-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0056.190.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0645.4551.71-0.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.60-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.38-0.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.90-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.250.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.20-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0049.220.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0662.5064.900.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.560.0637.5048.43-0.14-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9154.340.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0677.7871.340.000.03
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0077.640.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0657.1445.530.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3347.31-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3363.180.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0683.3366.520.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0677.7864.850.000.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0650.0033.140.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0688.8984.020.000.04
RutgersB100.000.0660.0035.390.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.950.000.01
SMUAmer0.710.0366.6770.530.240.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.710.0342.8644.96-0.10-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.710.0311.1145.10-0.56-0.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0360.0062.380.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.710.0320.0033.87-0.43-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0380.0072.430.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.73-0.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.710.0320.0020.84-0.43-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0362.5065.100.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.710.0322.2227.64-0.40-0.01
MarquetteBE0.710.0355.5647.220.08-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0341.6743.24-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.009.06-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0017.65-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0050.190.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3348.50-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.620.0350.0046.750.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.620.0372.7351.370.280.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5076.910.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0050.920.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.390.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.620.0337.5051.76-0.160.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0312.5024.45-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0342.8636.73-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0337.5032.38-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0362.5053.840.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.73-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.650.000.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5064.670.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.150.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0390.0067.550.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0344.4433.13-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0377.7861.940.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.0310.0018.39-0.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0375.0050.490.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0355.5631.620.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0067.440.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0377.7866.040.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0387.5054.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0366.6765.150.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0350.0053.970.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0066.870.000.01
BucknellPat0.560.0340.0036.16-0.11-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.520.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0342.8656.16-0.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.450.030.0011.08-0.45-0.02
IowaB100.000.0372.7362.660.000.01
IPFWSum0.450.0357.1456.130.060.00
Kansas St.B120.450.0360.0038.270.09-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.920.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0322.2227.10-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0355.5642.720.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0370.0070.960.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.450.0380.0063.530.270.01
North FloridaASun0.450.0350.0061.230.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.560.0340.0049.29-0.11-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6744.720.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0390.9171.250.000.01
OregonP120.560.0362.5057.800.140.00
VCUA100.560.0370.0071.110.220.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.300.000.02