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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:243.7
Current RPI:257
Expected SOS:212
Current SOS:236
Current Record:9-13
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:7-6
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:324
Expected OOC SOS:265



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14177.90.31%
14-15193.32.59%
13-16210.510.86%
12-17229.126.65%
11-18249.433.66%
10-19268.121.40%
9-20285.04.52%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13SIU Edwardsville (319.3)OVCA79-70L0%0.0
11-18Savannah St. (327.9)MEACA76-75L0%0.0
11-22Jackson St. (217.9)SWACH78-69W100%0.0
11-25Oregon (6.2)P12A91-68L0%0.0
11-27Baylor (25.7)B12A94-72L0%0.0
12-1Missouri (222.4)SECA88-78L0%0.0
12-4North Dakota St. (124.2)SumH73-74L0%0.0
12-18Tennessee Martin (239.0)OVCA74-70L0%0.0
12-22Central Arkansas (320.8)SlndH77-67W100%0.0
12-30Troy (298.5)SBA81-84W100%0.0
1-2South Alabama (251.0)SBA67-89W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Monroe (159.8)SBH68-65W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana Lafayette (102.1)SBH71-69W100%0.0
1-16Appalachian St. (265.7)SBH72-86L0%0.0
1-18Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBH76-73W100%0.0
1-21UT Arlington (99.3)SBA91-64L0%0.0
1-23Texas St. (276.7)SBA78-68L0%0.0
1-28Georgia St. (160.1)SBH75-69W100%0.0
1-30Georgia Southern (238.9)SBH66-71L0%0.0
2-4South Alabama (251.0)SBH79-73W100%0.0
2-6Troy (298.5)SBH70-71L0%0.0
2-11Louisiana Lafayette (102.1)SBA83-73L0%0.0
2-13Louisiana Monroe (159.8)SBA0-023%-8.0
2-18Georgia Southern (238.9)SBA0-041%-2.4
2-20Georgia St. (160.1)SBA0-026%-7.0
2-25Texas St. (276.7)SBH0-065%4.2
2-27UT Arlington (99.3)SBH0-022%-8.5
3-1Arkansas Little Rock (55.4)SBA0-07%-16.3
3-5Appalachian St. (265.7)SBA0-042%-2.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas St.SB26.4626.4838.8939.09-5.88-5.78
Arkansas Little RockSB3.284.6090.4887.012.663.40
Georgia SouthernSB3.174.5740.0038.41-0.63-1.06
Appalachian St.SB3.144.5521.7424.64-1.77-2.31
UT ArlingtonSB3.024.5466.6770.081.011.82
Louisiana MonroeSB3.124.5447.6249.84-0.15-0.01
South AlabamaSB5.244.5440.0038.98-1.05-1.00
TroySB5.244.5420.0022.48-3.14-2.50
Georgia St.SB3.124.5357.8955.000.490.45
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.224.5361.1163.221.161.20
Texas St.SB3.064.5336.8436.59-0.81-1.21
Savannah St.MEAC2.521.9035.0035.18-0.76-0.56
Central ArkansasSlnd2.381.8426.3231.00-1.13-0.70
BaylorB122.431.8272.7367.361.100.63
OregonP122.431.8278.2676.421.370.96
Jackson St.SWAC2.421.8152.3856.120.120.22
Tennessee MartinOVC2.321.7947.8348.74-0.10-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.321.7813.0416.51-1.71-1.19
MissouriSEC2.331.7630.4327.95-0.91-0.77
North Dakota St.Sum2.271.7259.0958.340.410.29
Southern MissCUSA0.360.2430.0031.76-0.15-0.09
MississippiSEC0.260.2462.5058.940.070.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.170.1922.2231.22-0.09-0.07
IUPUISum0.210.1838.4638.50-0.05-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.200.1840.0042.85-0.04-0.03
TexasB120.150.1766.6762.200.050.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.160.159.0917.14-0.13-0.10
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.1572.7370.520.100.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1517.6526.67-0.10-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.150.1559.0961.280.030.03
Texas TechB120.150.1560.8755.310.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.230.1326.3232.40-0.11-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1214.2915.44-0.11-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1268.1867.730.060.04
UABCUSA0.160.1283.3379.820.110.07
UCLAP120.160.1256.5253.400.020.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1254.1754.200.010.01
DenverSum0.150.1252.0049.300.01-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.1239.1341.05-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.140.1247.8350.89-0.010.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1213.0415.26-0.10-0.08
AlabamaSEC0.210.1260.8755.980.050.01
BelmontOVC0.200.1268.0066.640.070.04
IdahoBSky0.150.1256.5255.340.020.01
SamfordSC0.210.1240.0041.68-0.04-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1215.0018.13-0.07-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.150.1231.8232.46-0.06-0.04
RiceCUSA0.150.1227.2728.16-0.07-0.05
West VirginiaB120.100.1279.1778.100.060.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.1272.2275.600.070.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.160.1029.1733.11-0.07-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0976.1972.370.060.04
UTSACUSA0.110.0913.0412.96-0.08-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0950.0049.320.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.160.0920.0019.73-0.09-0.06
Washington St.P120.060.0934.7831.64-0.02-0.03
IPFWSum0.150.0970.8368.660.060.03
Oral RobertsSum0.150.0941.6742.39-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0914.2924.90-0.08-0.05
UtahP120.150.0970.8368.520.060.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.150.0965.2264.340.040.03
TulsaAmer0.110.0966.6764.700.040.03
AuburnSEC0.100.0939.1335.45-0.02-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.0958.3358.580.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.0940.0040.34-0.03-0.02
Iowa St.B120.100.0970.8367.970.040.03
OklahomaB120.110.0986.9682.620.080.06
USCP120.090.0978.2673.130.050.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0945.4554.18-0.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0924.0025.68-0.05-0.04
LSUSEC0.100.0962.5059.080.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0950.0048.950.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.150.0945.8342.30-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.150.0958.3356.290.020.01
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0859.0955.160.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.0875.0075.340.050.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0725.0025.08-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0725.0033.23-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0752.1754.130.000.01
CampbellBSth0.100.0631.8232.08-0.04-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0636.3638.97-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.110.0682.6177.580.070.04
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0658.3363.180.010.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.0658.3360.900.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0654.1753.810.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0631.8236.11-0.04-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0675.0071.840.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0618.1821.11-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0645.0049.27-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.100.0644.0043.56-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0673.9174.640.020.03
StetsonASun0.050.0622.7327.39-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0630.4329.49-0.02-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0621.7422.42-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0631.5832.04-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0666.6763.780.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0629.1733.75-0.04-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0624.0024.16-0.05-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0652.1753.440.000.00
Saint LouisA100.090.0634.7832.39-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0668.1865.170.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0636.8442.88-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0683.3383.710.030.04
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.02-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0641.6739.49-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0670.8367.980.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.050.0665.2260.600.020.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0625.0027.26-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0620.0022.25-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.069.5212.09-0.04-0.05
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0669.5770.090.020.02
Seton HallBE0.100.0670.8368.080.040.02
SouthernSWAC0.100.0661.9065.330.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5733.30-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.0645.8344.07-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0664.0062.090.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0643.4843.77-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0612.0011.95-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0666.6764.780.030.02
ColoradoP120.090.0670.8365.580.040.02
FordhamA100.050.0652.3850.690.000.00
KansasB120.050.0682.6179.200.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0658.3359.310.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0660.0055.560.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0663.6458.760.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0647.6244.06-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.050.0645.8339.36-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.090.0679.1778.290.060.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0658.3359.970.020.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0650.0052.940.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0637.5042.32-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0656.0054.430.010.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0666.6766.770.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.050.0634.7836.53-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0666.6767.110.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0683.3378.380.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0686.9680.420.030.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0636.0034.84-0.01-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.26-0.04-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.90-0.03-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0335.0034.83-0.02-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0382.6181.130.030.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.700.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0350.0049.760.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0347.6248.04-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0352.9452.100.000.00
LamarSlnd0.060.0330.0029.13-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0343.4842.40-0.01-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0360.8762.470.010.01
MontanaBSky0.050.0360.0062.710.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0343.4844.83-0.01-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0345.0048.13-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0372.7367.600.030.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0330.0035.92-0.02-0.01
RutgersB100.060.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.610.020.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0338.1035.34-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0347.6249.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0372.0071.320.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.010.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.02-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0363.6461.470.010.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.75-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.700.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0360.8760.440.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0363.6461.550.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0347.8351.92-0.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.460.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.600.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0369.5770.020.020.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.1755.070.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
WashingtonP120.000.0362.5060.140.000.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.320.000.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.610.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0048.130.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.850.040.02