Arkansas St.

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	228.9
Current RPI:	234
Expected SOS:	171
Current SOS:	150
Current Record:	9-15
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	4-6
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.49%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	5-9
Expected OOC Record:	5-9
Expected OOC RPI:	198
Expected OOC SOS:	108

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-15	163.4	0.36%
14-16	184.4	3.15%
13-17	202.5	15.43%
12-18	219.9	30.42%
11-19	237.8	31.16%
10-20	255.5	16.23%
9-21	270.7	3.24%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	A	65-62	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	H	46-77	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	H	63-45	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Ohio (63.5)	MAC	A	69-54	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Louisville (25.3)	BE	A	54-27	L	0%	0.0
11-29	Southeast Missouri St. (242.4)	OVC	H	79-63	W	100%	0.0
12-1	St. Bonaventure (93.8)	A10	A	52-58	W	100%	0.0
12-5	Austin Peay (200.2)	OVC	A	86-82	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	H	71-64	W	100%	0.0
12-14	Seattle (288.1)	ind	H	87-74	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Murray St. (30.1)	OVC	A	66-53	L	0%	0.0
12-22	St. Louis (32.0)	A10	A	70-46	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	H	54-69	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	63-65	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	50-53	L	0%	0.0
1-7	North Texas (203.3)	SB	H	75-72	W	100%	0.0
1-9	Florida Atlantic (179.8)	SB	H	50-58	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	H	62-63	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Middle Tennessee (49.6)	SB	A	59-46	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	H	79-74	W	100%	0.0
1-26	Denver (91.3)	SB	A	66-52	L	0%	0.0
1-28	North Texas (203.3)	SB	A	76-64	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	72-64	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Seattle (288.1)	ind	A	75-69	L	0%	0.0
2-9	South Alabama (196.0)	SB	A	0-0		32%	-5.0
2-11	Louisiana Lafayette (159.3)	SB	A	0-0		25%	-7.2
2-16	Troy (274.9)	SB	H	0-0		68%	5.0
2-18	Florida International (212.8)	SB	H	0-0		55%	1.4
2-23	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	0-0		39%	-3.0
2-25	Arkansas Little Rock (187.7)	SB	A	0-0		30%	-5.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Arkansas St.	SB	26.57	26.26	35.00	37.71	-7.97	-6.46
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.60	4.05	56.52	56.04	0.34	0.49
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	2.68	4.02	40.91	41.23	-0.49	-0.71
Denver	SB	4.54	3.99	68.18	70.17	1.65	1.61
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.54	3.99	9.52	9.68	-3.67	-3.22
North Texas	SB	4.48	3.98	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	4.17	3.33	20.00	31.77	-2.50	-1.22
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.50	2.35	82.61	84.22	1.63	1.61
Western Kentucky	SB	0.51	2.33	34.78	33.54	-0.16	-0.77
Florida Atlantic	SB	2.31	2.27	33.33	37.49	-0.77	-0.57
Florida International	SB	0.32	2.27	33.33	36.86	-0.11	-0.60
South Alabama	SB	0.41	2.26	52.38	52.28	0.02	0.10
Troy	SB	0.46	2.26	28.57	30.09	-0.20	-0.90
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.52	1.99	4.55	10.00	-2.29	-1.59
Austin Peay	OVC	2.32	1.91	30.43	33.76	-0.91	-0.62
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.28	1.88	50.00	48.99	0.00	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	2.38	1.87	60.00	66.06	0.48	0.60
Murray St.	OVC	2.27	1.87	100.00	94.34	2.27	1.66
Ohio	MAC	2.27	1.81	80.95	76.41	1.41	0.96
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.28	1.78	29.41	31.07	-0.94	-0.68
Louisville	BE	2.23	1.78	77.27	71.74	1.21	0.77
Kent St.	MAC	2.17	1.78	70.00	67.95	0.87	0.64
Missouri St.	MVC	2.13	1.72	52.17	55.72	0.09	0.20
St. Louis	A10	2.14	1.70	76.19	76.88	1.12	0.91
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.13	1.70	63.16	61.25	0.56	0.38
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.33	0.30	25.00	23.75	-0.17	-0.16
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.35	0.30	55.00	54.48	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.32	0.29	56.52	53.10	0.04	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.25	0.27	27.78	29.58	-0.11	-0.11
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.29	0.25	78.26	72.34	0.16	0.11
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.35	0.24	33.33	34.47	-0.12	-0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.38	0.23	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.21	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.20	47.62	48.82	-0.01	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.21	0.20	42.86	45.80	-0.03	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.19	0.18	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.24	0.18	60.87	59.76	0.05	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.19	0.18	34.78	38.42	-0.06	-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.18	0.18	18.18	21.13	-0.11	-0.10
Morehead St.	OVC	0.24	0.18	45.45	46.99	-0.02	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.15	0.18	30.00	34.15	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.22	0.17	56.52	54.22	0.03	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.17	59.09	56.35	0.03	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.22	0.16	56.52	53.77	0.03	0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.26	0.15	76.19	75.94	0.14	0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	0.15	26.32	29.71	-0.09	-0.06
Dayton	A10	0.20	0.15	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.14	0.15	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.23	0.15	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.15	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.13	0.15	69.57	73.28	0.05	0.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.13	0.14	80.77	80.75	0.08	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.14	68.42	66.45	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.14	0.14	68.18	67.91	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.14	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.25	0.14	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
Longwood	ind	0.00	0.14	30.00	27.84	-0.00	-0.06
Washington	P12	0.22	0.13	69.57	66.54	0.09	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.12	59.09	57.28	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.12	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.12	59.09	57.76	0.04	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.12	85.71	82.18	0.10	0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.13	0.12	90.91	87.74	0.11	0.09
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.11	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.11	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.09	0.11	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.11	95.83	92.57	0.13	0.10
Illinois St.	MVC	0.13	0.11	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.11	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.04
Stanford	P12	0.18	0.10	69.57	68.29	0.07	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.17	0.10	90.48	87.91	0.14	0.08
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	31.82	25.98	-0.04	-0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.09	57.14	60.75	0.01	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.09	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.15	0.09	82.61	81.44	0.10	0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.09	76.00	72.50	0.02	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.09	43.48	43.82	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.09	0.09	38.10	37.86	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.09	20.83	20.60	-0.03	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.09	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.13	0.09	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.10	0.09	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.00	0.09	62.50	62.49	0.00	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.10	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.14	0.09	69.57	71.51	0.06	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.14	0.09	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.09	21.74	21.70	-0.08	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.09	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.13	0.09	75.00	74.61	0.07	0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.09	0.09	68.00	70.03	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.08	8.70	11.67	-0.07	-0.06
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.03	0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.13	0.08	62.50	61.50	0.03	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.07	40.91	44.03	-0.02	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.00	0.07	39.13	44.52	-0.00	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.07	45.00	41.76	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.00	0.07	31.82	33.83	-0.00	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.12	0.07	27.27	26.95	-0.06	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.00	0.07	0.00	5.37	-0.00	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.07	35.00	35.26	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.07	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.06	55.00	54.80	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.00	0.06	52.38	52.86	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.06	15.00	15.73	-0.07	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	25.52	-0.06	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.00	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.10	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.02	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.06	30.00	33.20	-0.04	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.00	-0.03
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.06	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.05	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.06	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.00	0.06	70.83	68.82	0.00	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.06	73.91	68.58	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	42.86	41.13	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.04	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.01	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.04	0.06	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.06	66.67	60.80	0.03	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.04	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.04	0.06	13.64	16.14	-0.03	-0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.03	-0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.06	9.52	11.44	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.06	76.19	70.73	0.05	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.06	81.82	81.03	0.06	0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.09	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.05	0.06	58.33	59.98	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.06	69.57	65.87	0.03	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.06	45.45	46.08	-0.01	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.07	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.04	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.00	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.06	82.61	80.42	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	60.87	58.16	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.05	95.83	92.01	0.00	0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.00	0.03	17.65	27.10	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.00	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.00	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.03	54.17	49.44	0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.03	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.00	0.03	17.39	24.41	-0.00	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	72.22	71.97	0.00	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.00	0.03	59.09	50.82	0.00	0.00
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.03	17.39	19.81	-0.03	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.03	36.84	41.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.03	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.76	-0.03	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.03	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.54	0.01	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.61	-0.03	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.03	60.00	62.49	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.04	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.03	59.09	59.72	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.64	0.00	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.04	0.03	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.04	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.00	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.03	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.03	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.65	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01