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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:180.0
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:271
Current SOS:271
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:185
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13180.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Jackson St. (296.0)SWACA61-65W100%0.0
11-13Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH72-62W100%0.0
11-16Wyoming (135.0)MWCA85-64L0%0.0
11-18Colorado (34.0)P12A93-70L0%0.0
11-24Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH99-56W100%0.0
11-30Lamar (344.0)SlndA89-95W100%0.0
12-2Niagara (302.0)MAACH86-61W100%0.0
12-14Nebraska (48.0)B10A79-67L0%0.0
12-17Toledo (38.0)MACH65-78L0%0.0
12-21Marshall (276.0)CUSAA82-83W100%0.0
1-2UT Arlington (199.0)SBA66-82W100%0.0
1-4Texas St. (307.0)SBA69-74W100%0.0
1-9Troy (285.0)SBH84-98L0%0.0
1-11South Alabama (280.0)SBH72-60W100%0.0
1-16Georgia St. (76.0)SBA73-72L0%0.0
1-18Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA82-77L0%0.0
1-25Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH77-49W100%0.0
1-30Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA72-65L0%0.0
2-1Troy (285.0)SBA73-83W100%0.0
2-10Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH72-58W100%0.0
2-13South Alabama (280.0)SBA61-85W100%0.0
2-15Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA85-67L0%0.0
2-20UT Arlington (199.0)SBH83-60W100%0.0
2-22Texas St. (307.0)SBH73-68W100%0.0
3-1Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA74-67L0%0.0
3-4Georgia St. (76.0)SBH76-79L0%0.0
3-6Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH64-58W100%0.0
3-8Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH76-77L0%0.0
3-14Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBN116-114W100%0.0
3-15Georgia St. (76.0)SBN72-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas St.SB26.5726.5758.7058.704.624.62
Georgia St.SB6.026.0271.4371.432.582.58
Arkansas Little RockSB6.026.0244.4444.44-0.67-0.67
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.574.5762.0762.071.101.10
UT ArlingtonSB4.474.4746.4346.43-0.32-0.32
TroySB4.474.4729.6329.63-1.82-1.82
Western KentuckySB4.444.4462.0762.071.071.07
Louisiana MonroeSB4.394.3933.3333.33-1.46-1.46
Texas St.SB4.354.3522.2222.22-2.42-2.42
South AlabamaSB4.354.3530.7730.77-1.67-1.67
Jackson St.SWAC1.801.8036.6736.67-0.48-0.48
Central ArkansasSlnd1.751.7525.0025.00-0.88-0.88
ColoradoP121.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
WyomingMWC1.751.7551.7251.720.060.06
Tennessee MartinOVC1.751.7521.4321.43-1.00-1.00
MarshallCUSA1.721.7230.0030.00-0.69-0.69
LamarSlnd1.701.7011.1111.11-1.32-1.32
NebraskaB101.671.6760.0060.000.330.33
NiagaraMAAC1.671.6721.8821.88-0.94-0.94
ToledoMAC1.671.6780.6580.651.021.02
Southern MissCUSA0.330.3380.6580.650.200.20
Northwestern St.Slnd0.270.2748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.210.2114.8114.81-0.15-0.15
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.210.2193.1093.100.180.18
Louisiana TechCUSA0.200.2078.7978.790.120.12
SamfordSC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
MississippiSEC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
TexasB120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Ohio St.B100.170.1773.5373.530.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.170.1770.9770.970.070.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1614.8114.81-0.12-0.12
CanisiusMAAC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Oral RobertsSlnd0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
OklahomaB120.140.1471.8871.880.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
UtahP120.140.1463.3363.330.040.04
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.120.1230.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
KansasB120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
South DakotaSum0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MemphisAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
TulsaCUSA0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
UTSACUSA0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
North FloridaASun0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
MaristMAAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
ArizonaP120.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
LSUSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
NevadaMWC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
AkronMAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PennIvy0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.020.0286.2186.210.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01