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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:285.0
Current RPI:285
Expected SOS:196
Current SOS:196
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:232



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20285.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA79-70L0%0.0
11-18Savannah St. (277.0)MEACA76-75L0%0.0
11-22Jackson St. (221.0)SWACH78-69W100%0.0
11-25Oregon (2.0)P12A91-68L0%0.0
11-27Baylor (25.0)B12A94-72L0%0.0
12-1Missouri (222.0)SECA88-78L0%0.0
12-4North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH73-74L0%0.0
12-18Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCA74-70L0%0.0
12-22Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH77-67W100%0.0
12-30Troy (293.0)SBA81-84W100%0.0
1-2South Alabama (240.0)SBA67-89W100%0.0
1-7Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH68-65W100%0.0
1-9Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH71-69W100%0.0
1-16Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH72-86L0%0.0
1-18Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH76-73W100%0.0
1-21UT Arlington (105.0)SBA91-64L0%0.0
1-23Texas St. (238.0)SBA78-68L0%0.0
1-28Georgia St. (180.0)SBH75-69W100%0.0
1-30Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH66-71L0%0.0
2-4South Alabama (240.0)SBH79-73W100%0.0
2-6Troy (293.0)SBH70-71L0%0.0
2-11Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA83-73L0%0.0
2-13Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA78-73L0%0.0
2-18Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA90-59L0%0.0
2-20Georgia St. (180.0)SBA69-61L0%0.0
2-25Texas St. (238.0)SBH60-71L0%0.0
2-27UT Arlington (105.0)SBH75-79L0%0.0
3-1Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA89-80L0%0.0
3-5Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA80-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas St.SB26.4126.4129.4129.41-10.87-10.87
Arkansas Little RockSB4.674.6789.6689.663.703.70
South AlabamaSB4.614.6141.3841.38-0.79-0.79
UT ArlingtonSB4.614.6166.6766.671.541.54
Louisiana MonroeSB4.604.6058.6258.620.790.79
Texas St.SB4.604.6040.7440.74-0.85-0.85
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.594.5951.8551.850.170.17
Georgia SouthernSB4.574.5737.0437.04-1.18-1.18
Georgia St.SB4.544.5450.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB4.494.4924.1424.14-2.32-2.32
TroySB4.484.4822.2222.22-2.49-2.49
Savannah St.MEAC1.891.8946.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Central ArkansasSlnd1.841.8425.9325.93-0.88-0.88
OregonP121.811.8181.2581.251.131.13
BaylorB121.811.8164.5264.520.520.52
Jackson St.SWAC1.811.8154.8454.840.170.17
Tennessee MartinOVC1.791.7953.3353.330.120.12
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.781.7818.5218.52-1.12-1.12
MissouriSEC1.751.7530.0030.00-0.70-0.70
North Dakota St.Sum1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
MississippiSEC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
Austin PeayOVC0.200.2048.4848.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.200.2038.7138.71-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.180.1826.9226.92-0.08-0.08
HamptonMEAC0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1420.8320.83-0.08-0.08
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1470.0070.000.060.06
Texas TechB120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1211.1111.11-0.09-0.09
IdahoBSky0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1218.5218.52-0.07-0.07
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1182.1482.140.070.07
North TexasCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
UCLAP120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0976.6776.670.050.05
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
South FloridaAmer0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.6258.620.010.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Washington St.P120.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Kansas St.B120.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0662.8662.860.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.060.0635.2935.29-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TCUB120.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02