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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Arkansas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:277.0
Current RPI:277
Expected SOS:274
Current SOS:274
Current Record:10-18
Expected Record:10-18
Current Conf Record:6-14
Expected Conf Record:6-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:328



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18277.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCH73-75L0%0.0
11-25Lamar (230.0)SlndH58-63L0%0.0
12-1Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA49-67W100%0.0
12-10Purdue (55.0)B10A87-46L0%0.0
12-13Toledo (79.0)MACA73-65L0%0.0
12-17Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA55-69W100%0.0
12-20Marshall (296.0)CUSAH67-58W100%0.0
12-23Niagara (287.0)MAACA69-74W100%0.0
12-30South Alabama (275.0)SBA60-63W100%0.0
1-3Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH73-74L0%0.0
1-5Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA70-61L0%0.0
1-8Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH61-73L0%0.0
1-10UT Arlington (184.0)SBA77-50L0%0.0
1-15Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA50-59W100%0.0
1-17Texas St. (236.0)SBH78-73W100%0.0
1-19Georgia St. (53.0)SBH54-60L0%0.0
1-22Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA96-59L0%0.0
1-24Troy (313.0)SBA55-64W100%0.0
1-29Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH65-75L0%0.0
1-31Georgia St. (53.0)SBA74-43L0%0.0
2-5Troy (313.0)SBH64-69L0%0.0
2-12Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA65-60L0%0.0
2-19Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA70-57L0%0.0
2-21Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH70-68W100%0.0
2-26UT Arlington (184.0)SBH81-80W100%0.0
2-28Texas St. (236.0)SBA70-60L0%0.0
3-5South Alabama (275.0)SBH76-81L0%0.0
3-7Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH57-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arkansas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arkansas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arkansas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arkansas St.SB26.4626.4637.5037.50-6.61-6.61
Texas St.SB4.814.8138.4638.46-1.11-1.11
Georgia St.SB4.804.8070.0070.001.921.92
South AlabamaSB4.794.7931.0331.03-1.82-1.82
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.794.7953.5753.570.340.34
Louisiana MonroeSB4.794.7959.2659.260.890.89
Georgia SouthernSB4.784.7865.3865.381.471.47
Arkansas Little RockSB4.764.7635.7135.71-1.36-1.36
UT ArlingtonSB4.734.7350.0050.000.000.00
TroySB4.694.6928.0028.00-2.06-2.06
Appalachian St.SB4.674.6740.7440.74-0.86-0.86
Central ArkansasSlnd1.951.957.147.14-1.67-1.67
LamarSlnd1.881.8840.0040.00-0.38-0.38
MarshallCUSA1.791.7931.0331.03-0.68-0.68
Mississippi St.SEC1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
NiagaraMAAC1.791.7927.5927.59-0.80-0.80
PurdueB101.791.7962.5062.500.450.45
Tennessee MartinOVC1.791.7955.5655.560.200.20
ToledoMAC1.791.7959.3859.380.330.33
McNeese St.Slnd0.250.2540.7440.74-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.220.2255.5655.560.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.210.2125.9325.93-0.10-0.10
Green BayHorz0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.160.1686.6786.670.120.12
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1626.9226.92-0.07-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1372.4172.410.060.06
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
FIUCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
TulsaAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
IllinoisB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
Kent St.MAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1058.3358.330.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
OhioMAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
SamfordSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
KentuckySEC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
BYUWCC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
OaklandHorz0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0647.0647.06-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RutgersB100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01