Texas Christian

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	124.2
Current RPI:	102
Expected SOS:	67
Current SOS:	76
Current Record:	12-9
Expected Record:	14-15
Current Conf Record:	3-4
Expected Conf Record:	5-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.22%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	9-5
Expected OOC Record:	9-6
Expected OOC RPI:	150
Expected OOC SOS:	242

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	64.0	0.01%
18-11	73.5	0.61%
17-12	87.3	3.86%
16-13	100.5	13.21%
15-14	114.1	26.32%
14-15	128.4	30.51%
13-16	144.7	19.97%
12-17	163.9	5.50%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Christian.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Florida Gulf Coast (214.0)	ASun	H	73-72	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Virginia (39.8)	ACC	N	55-57	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Norfolk St. (130.0)	MEAC	N	53-66	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Mississippi (70.7)	SEC	N	80-69	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Houston (234.1)	CUSA	A	80-81	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	H	77-72	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Evansville (145.2)	MVC	A	68-70	W	100%	0.0
12-6	Texas Tech (235.0)	B12	H	75-69	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Nebraska (125.8)	B10	H	57-69	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Southern California (233.2)	P12	A	83-59	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Grambling (342.1)	SWAC	H	85-53	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Tulsa (105.6)	CUSA	H	66-74	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Rice (176.7)	CUSA	H	78-74	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	H	88-58	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Colorado St. (33.6)	MWC	A	95-89	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Nevada Las Vegas (9.9)	MWC	A	101-78	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Boise St. (177.2)	MWC	H	54-52	W	100%	0.0
1-25	Air Force (174.2)	MWC	H	59-56	W	100%	0.0
1-28	New Mexico (30.5)	MWC	A	71-54	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Wyoming (56.6)	MWC	H	58-52	W	100%	0.0
2-4	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	A	83-73	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Southern Methodist (213.4)	CUSA	A	0-0		46%	-1.1
2-11	Colorado St. (33.6)	MWC	H	0-0		43%	-2.0
2-14	Nevada Las Vegas (9.9)	MWC	H	0-0		15%	-11.2
2-18	Boise St. (177.2)	MWC	A	0-0		30%	-5.8
2-22	Air Force (174.2)	MWC	A	0-0		42%	-2.2
2-25	New Mexico (30.5)	MWC	H	0-0		15%	-11.4
2-28	Wyoming (56.6)	MWC	A	0-0		14%	-11.6
3-3	San Diego St. (26.1)	MWC	H	0-0		33%	-4.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Christian's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Christian's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Christian.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Christian	MWC	26.15	26.31	54.12	46.33	2.15	-1.93
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.77	4.22	81.82	80.64	1.77	2.59
New Mexico	MWC	2.77	4.22	80.95	80.17	1.72	2.54
Colorado St.	MWC	2.72	4.21	65.00	59.47	0.82	0.80
San Diego St.	MWC	2.77	4.21	85.00	77.68	1.94	2.33
Air Force	MWC	2.77	4.21	50.00	43.22	0.00	-0.57
Boise St.	MWC	2.72	4.18	45.00	41.54	-0.27	-0.71
Wyoming	MWC	2.72	4.18	80.00	72.85	1.63	1.91
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.38	2.03	38.10	37.23	-0.09	-0.52
Houston	CUSA	2.49	1.93	50.00	46.24	0.00	-0.15
Rice	CUSA	2.49	1.93	50.00	48.24	0.00	-0.07
Southern California	P12	2.60	1.93	21.74	22.58	-1.47	-1.06
Tulsa	CUSA	2.49	1.91	59.09	57.64	0.45	0.29
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.50	1.82	20.00	25.55	-1.50	-0.89
Grambling	SWAC	2.54	1.81	15.00	14.84	-1.78	-1.27
Lamar	Slnd	2.49	1.79	65.00	69.70	0.75	0.70
Mississippi	SEC	2.44	1.78	61.90	55.19	0.58	0.19
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	2.44	1.78	50.00	49.12	0.00	-0.03
Nebraska	B10	2.48	1.78	47.62	43.02	-0.12	-0.25
Texas Tech	B12	2.44	1.75	31.82	26.74	-0.89	-0.82
Evansville	MVC	2.38	1.72	50.00	48.82	0.00	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.38	1.72	68.18	69.37	0.87	0.67
Virginia	ACC	2.38	1.72	85.71	79.44	1.70	1.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.33	0.36	43.48	43.27	-0.04	-0.05
Tulane	CUSA	0.28	0.27	61.90	58.61	0.07	0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.28	0.25	54.55	57.71	0.03	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.28	0.25	52.17	50.01	0.01	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.33	0.25	19.05	19.39	-0.21	-0.15
Idaho St.	BSky	0.22	0.24	31.82	32.98	-0.08	-0.08
Colorado	P12	0.23	0.22	66.67	62.69	0.08	0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.21	85.71	82.22	0.08	0.14
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.28	0.21	59.09	57.27	0.05	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.18	0.19	9.09	12.82	-0.14	-0.14
Denver	SB	0.17	0.18	70.83	72.24	0.07	0.08
Creighton	MVC	0.21	0.18	84.00	82.62	0.15	0.12
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.21	0.18	47.83	42.67	-0.01	-0.03
California	P12	0.16	0.17	75.00	74.62	0.08	0.09
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.16	20.83	25.85	-0.07	-0.08
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.17	0.15	25.00	28.48	-0.08	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.17	0.15	62.50	61.43	0.04	0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.11	0.15	39.13	44.46	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.21	0.15	56.52	54.28	0.03	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.16	0.15	47.83	47.88	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.21	0.15	82.61	80.50	0.14	0.09
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.15	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.15	86.96	83.30	0.08	0.10
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.20	0.14	23.81	33.67	-0.11	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.14	30.43	31.40	-0.06	-0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.17	0.13	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.12	33.33	41.30	-0.04	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.17	0.12	22.22	27.56	-0.09	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.08	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.12	71.43	73.45	0.05	0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.12	30.00	31.40	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.12	31.82	42.18	-0.04	-0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.22	0.12	76.19	75.98	0.12	0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.17	0.12	57.14	60.72	0.02	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.22	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.17	0.09
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.12	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.12	71.43	66.55	0.05	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.17	0.12	44.44	41.65	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.11	0.12	59.09	59.78	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.12	69.57	71.58	0.04	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.22	0.12	17.39	20.75	-0.14	-0.07
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.12	40.91	39.81	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.12	18.18	23.34	-0.07	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.17	0.12	69.57	65.18	0.07	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.12	90.91	83.90	0.09	0.08
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.12	55.56	58.02	0.01	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.12	69.57	69.00	0.04	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.12	66.67	68.55	0.04	0.04
Stanford	P12	0.11	0.12	69.57	68.33	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.17	0.12	27.78	29.77	-0.07	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.12	69.57	61.84	0.04	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	0.12	27.78	29.51	-0.07	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.12	75.00	74.01	0.08	0.06
Army	Pat	0.12	0.10	40.91	41.68	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.16	0.09	38.10	40.84	-0.04	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	28.57	35.72	-0.05	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.09	35.00	40.74	-0.03	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.17	0.09	47.62	48.48	-0.01	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.17	0.09	21.05	24.33	-0.10	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.09	62.50	62.07	0.04	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.09	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.11	0.09	31.82	34.86	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.09	26.32	28.82	-0.05	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.16	0.09	63.64	57.79	0.04	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.09	82.61	79.93	0.07	0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.16	0.09	72.00	72.22	0.07	0.04
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.09	35.00	39.40	-0.03	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.09	47.83	42.19	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.09	21.05	22.46	-0.06	-0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.09	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.11	0.09	18.18	15.00	-0.07	-0.06
Longwood	ind	0.11	0.09	28.57	25.79	-0.05	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.09	70.83	66.50	0.05	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.09	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.09	66.67	63.50	0.05	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.09	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.11	0.09	62.50	62.20	0.03	0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.11	0.09	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.09	30.43	26.42	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.09	80.00	76.67	0.09	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.09	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.09	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.09	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.11	0.09	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.09	69.57	64.49	0.06	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.09	8.70	8.99	-0.09	-0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.09	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.09	78.26	78.42	0.06	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.50	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.07	82.61	84.58	0.04	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	33.33	38.39	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	26.81	-0.04	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.06	70.83	73.74	0.02	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.05
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.06	20.83	23.61	-0.06	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	8.33	10.90	-0.09	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	71.43	73.99	0.02	0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.10	0.06	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.06	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	45.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.06	34.78	32.10	-0.03	-0.02
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.06	30.43	29.57	-0.02	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	0.00	5.31	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.73	24.64	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.06	75.00	75.73	0.05	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.06	60.87	59.85	0.02	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.02	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.19	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.06	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.06	79.17	78.05	0.06	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.06	76.00	72.48	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	96.00	93.53	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.77	0.03	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	14.29	16.80	-0.08	-0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.06	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	19.76	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	72.73	71.57	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.06	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.06	73.91	68.41	0.05	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.28	0.03	0.03
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.05	0.06	80.95	76.42	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.06	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.06	40.91	39.60	-0.02	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.06	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.03	28.57	29.05	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	78.26	74.29	0.03	0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.03	30.00	34.18	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.00	0.03	52.63	48.32	0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.00	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.00	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.03	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.03	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.03	9.52	13.17	-0.04	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.03	81.82	77.18	0.04	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.00	0.03	62.50	60.78	0.00	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	26.32	29.85	-0.00	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.47	0.03	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.00	0.03	47.62	47.19	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.05	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.04	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.42	0.01	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	22.22	32.99	-0.03	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.27	-0.05	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.05	0.03	28.57	30.17	-0.02	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.88	0.00	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.75	-0.02	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.17	0.01	0.01