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Through games of Dec 23, 2014.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:107.8
Current RPI:100
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:276
Current Record:7-2
Expected Record:18-9
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-1
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:101
Expected OOC SOS:322



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-326.80.04%
23-434.40.32%
22-544.11.68%
21-653.64.53%
20-767.711.12%
19-883.415.95%
18-9100.421.08%
17-10118.218.96%
16-11137.213.78%
15-12157.77.73%
14-13178.23.33%
13-14200.11.10%
12-15226.20.34%
11-16244.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Oakland (241.4)HorzH89-77W100%0.0
11-21Youngstown St. (219.6)HorzH71-62W100%0.0
11-22UNC Greensboro (290.2)SCH70-62W100%0.0
11-23Longwood (320.6)BSthH79-48W100%0.0
12-6Dayton (62.1)A10A73-64L0%0.0
12-9Michigan (154.9)B10A42-45W100%0.0
12-17Michigan St. (39.4)B10A66-46L0%0.0
12-20Missouri St. (206.2)MVCA65-77W100%0.0
12-23Coppin St. (331.5)MEACH87-64W100%0.0
1-7Ball St. (221.0)MACH0-081%10.0
1-10Miami OH (278.6)MACA0-070%6.2
1-14Kent St. (120.1)MACA0-040%-3.0
1-17Northern Illinois (262.1)MACH0-088%13.6
1-21Bowling Green (106.6)MACA0-035%-4.5
1-24Central Michigan (65.5)MACA0-022%-8.9
1-27Ohio (198.3)MACH0-082%10.4
1-31Western Michigan (149.6)MACH0-074%7.3
2-4Toledo (98.1)MACA0-032%-5.4
2-7Ohio (198.3)MACA0-057%2.0
2-10Miami OH (278.6)MACH0-090%14.7
2-14Akron (149.5)MACH0-070%6.1
2-18Buffalo (39.4)MACH0-051%0.4
2-21Northern Illinois (262.1)MACA0-067%5.1
2-24Central Michigan (65.5)MACH0-049%-0.4
2-28Western Michigan (149.6)MACA0-046%-1.1
3-3Ball St. (221.0)MACA0-055%1.6
3-6Toledo (98.1)MACH0-060%3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC27.2926.3282.8667.1517.939.03
Central MichiganMAC0.254.6087.5077.330.192.51
ToledoMAC0.234.5963.6460.590.060.97
Western MichiganMAC0.234.5860.0052.570.050.24
Ball St.MAC0.004.5825.0038.06-0.00-1.09
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.5737.5034.20-0.00-1.45
Miami OHMAC0.534.5427.2728.19-0.24-1.98
OhioMAC0.004.4844.4439.85-0.00-0.91
Kent St.MAC0.252.7870.0059.050.100.50
Bowling GreenMAC0.252.7875.0066.070.130.89
AkronMAC0.002.7860.0057.710.000.43
BuffaloMAC0.002.7677.7871.540.001.19
Youngstown St.Horz6.112.0850.0046.670.00-0.14
OaklandHorz5.772.0727.2733.65-2.62-0.68
LongwoodBSth6.092.0522.2226.31-3.38-0.97
Michigan St.B105.791.9566.6766.071.930.63
DaytonA105.561.9580.0070.263.330.79
MichiganB105.811.9460.0040.371.16-0.37
UNC GreensboroSC6.091.9222.2235.52-3.38-0.56
Coppin St.MEAC5.811.910.0015.50-5.81-1.32
Missouri St.MVC5.561.8544.4439.43-0.62-0.39
NorthwesternB100.000.3266.6743.830.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.250.2536.3643.70-0.07-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2380.0071.910.000.10
Wright St.Horz0.000.2254.5553.530.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2236.3648.00-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.210.2023.0837.47-0.12-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2081.8274.420.000.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.250.1916.6721.10-0.17-0.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.1745.4548.76-0.03-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.1618.1818.84-0.00-0.10
IowaB100.280.1669.2359.520.110.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1670.0058.460.000.03
IllinoisB100.250.1675.0065.550.130.05
Ohio St.B100.000.1683.3382.500.000.10
BradleyMVC0.000.1427.2729.61-0.00-0.06
MaineAE0.000.1410.0022.55-0.00-0.08
DePaulBE0.000.1350.0029.510.00-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1330.0030.58-0.00-0.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.1316.6737.97-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.1370.0075.410.000.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1327.2730.35-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.470.1392.3176.480.390.07
George WashingtonA100.280.1372.7370.420.130.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.130.0028.58-0.25-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1354.5557.470.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.210.1380.0067.970.130.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1322.2234.43-0.00-0.04
OregonP120.510.1272.7359.010.230.02
Chicago St.WAC0.230.120.008.94-0.23-0.10
IndianaB100.280.1283.3363.750.190.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.250.1236.3638.29-0.07-0.03
MarylandB100.000.1291.6771.970.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1041.6749.01-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1018.1829.20-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.250.1050.0051.840.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.250.1063.6463.450.070.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.280.1050.0051.700.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.280.1045.4543.92-0.03-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.230.1027.2743.30-0.11-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.280.1058.3353.030.050.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1050.0041.350.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.280.100.008.31-0.28-0.08
The CitadelSC0.210.1012.5031.55-0.16-0.04
ElonCAA0.280.0950.0051.650.000.00
UMKCWAC0.250.0918.1834.73-0.16-0.03
RutgersB100.000.0958.3337.700.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0940.0046.33-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0992.3157.320.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0991.6789.790.000.07
BucknellPat0.250.0936.3637.95-0.07-0.02
VCUA100.000.0975.0077.240.000.05
DukeACC0.210.09100.0087.560.210.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0722.2230.10-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0024.67-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0733.3339.03-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0763.6464.210.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0745.4553.15-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0736.3646.84-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.280.0762.5060.870.070.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0770.0067.030.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0720.0035.02-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0736.3648.13-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0733.3349.38-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0740.0042.61-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.079.0916.85-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0716.6735.50-0.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.250.0758.3362.900.040.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0790.9182.960.000.04
Oral RobertsSum0.560.0736.3642.84-0.15-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0738.4634.18-0.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0736.3640.80-0.08-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0744.4439.11-0.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0730.0037.65-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0790.0085.230.000.05
WoffordSC0.000.0770.0072.390.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.007.88-0.00-0.06
IUPUISum0.000.0725.0030.10-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0775.0074.940.000.03
UtahP120.000.0781.8279.670.000.04
High PointBSth0.280.0666.6761.790.090.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0644.4441.15-0.03-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.510.0655.5660.340.060.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.250.0630.7728.70-0.10-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.20-0.00-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.510.0670.0060.860.200.01
ArizonaP120.480.0692.3178.580.410.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0637.5046.48-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0662.5071.140.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0644.4457.91-0.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0633.3348.23-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.000.0644.4455.79-0.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0663.6460.830.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.0655.5638.940.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0660.0062.190.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.005.87-0.00-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0612.5038.69-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0625.0043.64-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.280.0618.1825.19-0.18-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0681.8267.230.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0663.6442.160.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0661.5453.750.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.52-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0625.0023.12-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0644.4449.70-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0658.3358.840.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0654.5556.380.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0622.2230.24-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0663.6439.480.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0663.6435.750.00-0.02
KansasB120.210.0681.8264.060.140.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3347.59-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.280.03100.0079.010.280.02
DenverSum0.250.0341.6752.39-0.040.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0340.0035.09-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0344.4465.23-0.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.47-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.250.0363.6472.510.070.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0342.8648.81-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.280.0372.7374.690.130.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0354.5572.490.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1826.22-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0323.0828.64-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.250.0333.3344.09-0.08-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0345.4540.45-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.280.0375.0046.240.14-0.00
TowsonCAA0.250.0354.5544.450.02-0.00
TulsaAmer0.280.0363.6459.960.080.01
Washington St.P120.280.0345.4529.46-0.03-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0052.370.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.0333.3346.70-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.230.0363.6445.710.06-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.230.0366.6771.710.080.01
Iowa St.B120.230.0390.0067.360.190.01
Morehead St.OVC0.230.0316.6736.70-0.15-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.030.0018.67-0.25-0.02
NJITind0.250.0338.4643.77-0.06-0.00
PittsburghACC0.230.0372.7354.540.110.00
SMUAmer0.250.0372.7373.660.110.02
SyracuseACC0.250.0363.6461.190.070.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.280.0360.0061.370.060.01
VillanovaBE0.250.03100.0084.020.250.02
ArkansasSEC0.250.0381.8273.090.160.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0011.35-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.250.0360.0039.120.05-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.250.0330.0042.42-0.10-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.0337.5051.12-0.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0360.0065.790.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0354.5552.030.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0388.8975.920.000.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0322.2237.28-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0340.0035.22-0.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.250.0372.7351.480.110.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0096.270.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0320.0030.75-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0350.0051.320.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0354.5549.970.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0372.7356.210.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0311.1128.21-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6771.480.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0363.6455.150.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.770.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0366.6764.710.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0363.6460.790.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0330.0041.48-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0363.6440.170.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5656.610.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.050.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3329.58-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6763.190.000.01
MarquetteBE0.210.0363.6448.300.06-0.00
NavyPat0.210.0327.2726.15-0.10-0.01
RiderMAAC0.210.0350.0052.410.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.0340.0032.47-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.0318.1852.25-0.140.00