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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:243.0
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:275
Current SOS:275
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:9-8
Expected Conf Record:9-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:258
Expected OOC SOS:236


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18243.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH68-57W100%0.0
11-15Texas Southern (234.0)SWACA66-49L0%0.0
11-18Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)SBH62-51W100%0.0
11-20IUPUI (211.0)SumA64-66W100%0.0
11-27Michigan St. (4.0)B10H40-72L0%0.0
11-29Syracuse (1.0)BEA84-48L0%0.0
12-1Colgate (295.0)PatA74-70L0%0.0
12-8Drake (133.0)MVCA66-53L0%0.0
12-10Purdue (48.0)B10A61-36L0%0.0
12-20Radford (329.0)BSthA48-52W100%0.0
12-22Virginia Tech (116.0)ACCA71-50L0%0.0
12-29Santa Clara (303.0)WCCA75-55L0%0.0
12-30Air Force (168.0)MWCN37-42L0%0.0
1-7Northern Illinois (334.0)MACA40-47W100%0.0
1-11Central Michigan (280.0)MACH56-60L0%0.0
1-14Ball St. (256.0)MACA48-51W100%0.0
1-18Western Michigan (205.0)MACH62-59W100%0.0
1-21Toledo (246.0)MACH41-38W100%0.0
1-24Buffalo (78.0)MACA65-47L0%0.0
1-28Bowling Green (158.0)MACH55-50W100%0.0
2-1Miami OH (247.0)MACA62-57L0%0.0
2-4Akron (55.0)MACA77-47L0%0.0
2-8Kent St. (106.0)MACH58-62L0%0.0
2-11Ohio (47.0)MACH68-55W100%0.0
2-14Central Michigan (280.0)MACA55-52L0%0.0
2-18Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)HorzA54-49L0%0.0
2-22Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH48-45W100%0.0
2-25Ball St. (256.0)MACH61-50W100%0.0
2-29Western Michigan (205.0)MACA53-54W100%0.0
3-3Toledo (246.0)MACA76-51L0%0.0
3-5Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH52-55L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.2026.2045.0445.04-2.60-2.60
Northern IllinoisMAC5.515.5111.5411.54-4.24-4.24
Western MichiganMAC4.064.0641.9441.94-0.65-0.65
ToledoMAC4.004.0050.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC3.983.9851.8551.850.150.15
Central MichiganMAC3.973.9727.5927.59-1.78-1.78
OhioMAC2.282.2881.2581.251.421.42
Bowling GreenMAC2.242.2451.7251.720.080.08
Kent St.MAC2.242.2463.3363.330.600.60
AkronMAC2.222.2264.5264.520.640.64
Miami OHMAC2.222.2225.0025.00-1.11-1.11
BuffaloMAC2.192.1962.9662.960.570.57
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.861.8625.9325.93-0.89-0.89
PurdueB101.791.7962.5062.500.450.45
IUPUISum1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
Michigan St.B101.741.7478.1278.120.980.98
Texas SouthernSWAC1.721.7243.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Wisconsin Green BayHorz1.671.6744.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Arkansas Little RockSB1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
SyracuseBE1.661.6693.7593.751.461.46
DrakeMVC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
Air ForceMWC1.641.6438.4638.46-0.38-0.38
ColgatePat1.641.6424.1424.14-0.85-0.85
Virginia TechACC1.641.6446.8846.88-0.10-0.10
RadfordBSth1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
Santa ClaraWCC1.611.6118.5218.52-1.02-1.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.380.3858.0658.060.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.280.2864.5264.520.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.250.2538.7138.71-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.2548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.240.2426.6726.67-0.11-0.11
TempleA100.230.2377.4277.420.130.13
Cleveland St.Horz0.220.2267.7467.740.080.08
DetroitHorz0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
IowaB100.210.2151.5251.520.010.01
ButlerHorz0.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
GonzagaWCC0.160.1680.6580.650.100.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1678.1278.120.090.09
WisconsinB100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
Ohio St.B100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
MinnesotaB100.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
NebraskaB100.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.GWC0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
DuquesneA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
OaklandSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.120.1281.2581.250.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Brigham YoungWCC0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
PortlandWCC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Virginia Military InstBSth0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DePaulBE0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
LehighPat0.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Arkansas St.SB0.100.1039.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
CincinnatiBE0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
ColoradoP120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
LouisvilleBE0.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Penn St.B100.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
IndianaB100.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
MichiganB100.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
WyomingMWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
DaytonA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
CharlotteA100.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
DenverSB0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Florida InternationalSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
NC AshevilleBSth0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
BradleyMVC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
CreightonMVC0.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
Iowa St.B120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
West VirginiaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0719.2319.23-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
ConnecticutBE0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
IllinoisB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Texas ChristianMWC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
WagnerNEC0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
ArizonaP120.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
St. Peter'sMAAC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.056.456.45-0.05-0.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
LafayettePat0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.050.057.147.14-0.05-0.05
North TexasSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.050.0528.0028.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahSum0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
VillanovaBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0583.8783.870.040.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
MarylandACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
South Carolina UpstateASun0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Texas St.Slnd0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PacificBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
San Jose St.WAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontASun0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacNEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.026.676.67-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
PittsburghBE0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
RutgersBE0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South FloridaBE0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
St. LouisA100.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
StanfordP120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00