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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:101.7
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:301
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-2
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:110
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-522.60.05%
21-627.60.30%
20-735.91.10%
19-845.03.30%
18-955.57.44%
17-1068.413.32%
16-1183.416.45%
15-1299.718.56%
14-13117.116.36%
13-14134.911.29%
12-15154.86.88%
11-16175.93.38%
10-17198.41.07%
9-18222.10.40%
8-19240.40.07%
7-20269.00.01%
6-21276.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pittsburgh (49.5)ACCA93-90L0%0.0
11-13SMU (50.9)AmerA91-64L0%0.0
11-18Gardner Webb (214.7)BSthN76-68W100%0.0
11-19IUPUI (194.4)SumA83-71L0%0.0
11-26Nebraska Omaha (183.8)SumH94-77W100%0.0
11-30Detroit (301.2)HorzA61-87W100%0.0
12-17Vermont (91.3)AEA0-038%-3.6
12-19Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-08%-16.6
12-29Long Beach St. (199.2)BWH0-075%8.2
1-3Central Michigan (157.8)MACH0-071%6.5
1-7Buffalo (138.0)MACH0-069%6.1
1-10Bowling Green (217.3)MACA0-058%2.4
1-14Ohio (94.7)MACA0-038%-3.8
1-17Western Michigan (212.4)MACH0-077%9.0
1-21Akron (74.5)MACA0-031%-5.9
1-24Ball St. (212.5)MACH0-074%7.7
1-28Miami OH (271.3)MACA0-071%6.6
1-31Kent St. (205.9)MACH0-072%6.8
2-4Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA0-055%1.5
2-7Toledo (153.9)MACA0-051%0.4
2-11Akron (74.5)MACH0-051%0.3
2-14Ohio (94.7)MACH0-058%2.4
2-18Western Michigan (212.4)MACA0-059%2.8
2-21Ball St. (212.5)MACA0-055%1.6
2-25Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH0-074%7.7
2-28Central Michigan (157.8)MACA0-051%0.3
3-3Toledo (153.9)MACH0-071%6.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC29.0126.3062.5059.927.255.22
Western MichiganMAC0.004.6016.6736.80-0.00-1.21
Ball St.MAC0.004.5750.0053.540.000.32
ToledoMAC0.004.5642.8651.17-0.000.11
Central MichiganMAC0.004.5366.6757.630.000.69
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.5242.8646.05-0.00-0.36
AkronMAC0.004.4783.3370.640.001.84
OhioMAC0.004.4680.0069.550.001.75
Miami OHMAC0.002.7850.0033.150.00-0.94
Bowling GreenMAC0.002.7733.3343.70-0.00-0.35
BuffaloMAC0.002.7740.0051.64-0.000.09
Kent St.MAC0.002.7550.0052.620.000.14
PittsburghACC9.762.0483.3354.076.510.17
IUPUISum8.332.0116.6745.78-5.56-0.17
Nebraska OmahaSum8.331.9540.0050.53-1.670.02
DetroitHorz8.331.940.0020.20-8.33-1.16
SMUAmer9.761.9150.0068.280.000.70
Gardner WebbBSth9.521.9125.0050.17-4.760.01
SyracuseACC0.001.9166.6769.430.000.74
Long Beach St.BW0.001.850.0039.86-0.00-0.38
VermontAE0.001.8562.5071.970.000.81
Green BayHorz0.000.2833.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2216.6730.27-0.00-0.09
MarshallCUSA0.000.2283.3359.600.000.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.2066.6770.930.000.08
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1933.3346.81-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1957.1447.220.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1942.8637.60-0.00-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1971.4355.750.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.160.0022.69-0.00-0.09
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1614.2928.66-0.00-0.07
OaklandHorz0.000.1683.3378.430.000.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.160.0018.22-0.00-0.10
Georgia TechACC0.000.1666.6739.720.00-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.1585.7175.950.000.08
DenverSum0.000.1333.3341.11-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0061.810.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1314.2937.52-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.130.0019.30-0.00-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1350.0050.290.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1333.3333.15-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.1333.3336.31-0.00-0.04
IllinoisB100.690.1357.1442.660.10-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1333.3335.92-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.690.1316.6730.02-0.46-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1316.6743.29-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.1325.0024.66-0.00-0.06
UC IrvineBW0.000.1350.0054.690.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1383.3377.170.000.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1385.7174.430.000.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.290.120.0033.44-1.29-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1285.7173.010.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1285.7180.010.000.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1042.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.000.1050.0062.460.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.1066.6732.240.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.10100.0076.650.000.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.1050.0052.140.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.1066.6770.740.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.600.0942.8646.78-0.09-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.090.0023.26-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.090.0013.30-0.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.0950.0035.230.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.09100.0083.550.000.06
WashingtonP120.000.0957.1452.630.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.600.0950.0058.980.000.02
MaineAE0.000.0916.6725.61-0.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.690.0950.0057.480.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0942.8640.94-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0933.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.690.0985.7162.410.500.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0950.0060.380.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0914.2931.71-0.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0985.7180.960.000.06
HoustonAmer0.000.0983.3376.370.000.05
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0027.250.00-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0933.3338.76-0.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0082.550.000.06
BryantNEC0.000.0728.5750.20-0.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0725.0038.72-0.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0783.3358.030.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0716.6733.69-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0750.0051.260.000.00
HowardMEAC1.430.070.0038.26-1.43-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0740.0050.88-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0760.0070.140.000.03
Kansas St.B120.690.0785.7155.890.500.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0740.0050.71-0.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0785.7165.670.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.13-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0058.600.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0725.0056.92-0.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0064.840.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0760.0070.500.000.03
CampbellBSth0.000.0725.0033.54-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0616.6735.65-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.060.000.05
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0028.15-0.00-0.03
Little RockSB0.000.0660.0057.900.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.050.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
William & MaryCAA0.000.0640.0055.44-0.000.01
MarquetteBE1.190.0671.4363.090.510.02
MichiganB101.190.0671.4366.530.510.02
RiceCUSA0.690.0685.7169.010.500.02
USCP121.290.06100.0075.381.290.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0642.8661.90-0.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6756.020.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.03
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0657.1448.240.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0650.0056.430.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0033.43-0.00-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0080.780.000.04
YaleIvy0.600.0633.3364.14-0.200.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0687.5078.680.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0075.010.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0671.4363.570.000.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0614.2926.81-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0660.0039.200.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.920.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0320.0049.38-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.830.0366.6754.380.280.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0034.18-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.600.0350.0066.170.000.01
IowaB100.000.0342.8644.33-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0371.4368.970.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.610.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.600.0357.1440.590.09-0.01
VMISC0.000.030.0021.15-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0340.0041.65-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0333.3341.52-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0340.0040.65-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.690.0383.3380.700.460.02
ManhattanMAAC0.690.0333.3338.19-0.23-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.0375.0070.470.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0325.0039.28-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0320.0054.94-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0074.800.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0383.3361.490.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0023.47-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0350.0071.330.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.000.030.0043.04-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0357.1440.550.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0385.7176.170.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0342.8635.68-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0371.4368.100.000.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0371.4356.280.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0316.6734.31-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0371.4386.030.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0328.5730.63-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0350.0047.560.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.600.0385.7156.490.430.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.600.0320.0041.93-0.36-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.77-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0059.100.000.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0059.480.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01