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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.

Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:239.0
Current RPI:239
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:214
Current Record:13-18
Expected Record:13-18
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC Record:4-8
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:109


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-18239.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Jacksonville St. (142.0)OVCA61-54L0%0.0
11-16Eastern Illinois (276.0)OVCH60-52W100%0.0
11-17IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)SumH60-47W100%0.0
11-18Texas Pan American (306.0)GWCH57-47W100%0.0
12-3Syracuse (14.0)BEA84-48L0%0.0
12-8Purdue (136.0)B10H47-44W100%0.0
12-15Illinois Chicago (169.0)HorzA74-48L0%0.0
12-20Michigan (20.0)B10A93-54L0%0.0
12-22Oakland (152.0)SumH57-59L0%0.0
1-2Kentucky (56.0)SECA90-38L0%0.0
1-5Massachusetts (57.0)A10A75-61L0%0.0
1-9Ball St. (233.0)MACH58-60L0%0.0
1-12Bowling Green (274.0)MACA46-44L0%0.0
1-15Central Michigan (268.0)MACH58-52W100%0.0
1-19Miami OH (258.0)MACH65-58W100%0.0
1-23Western Michigan (128.0)MACA63-59L0%0.0
1-26Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH42-25W100%0.0
2-2Kent St. (131.0)MACA77-62L0%0.0
2-6Buffalo (215.0)MACH65-46W100%0.0
2-9Toledo (193.0)MACA60-52L0%0.0
2-13Akron (43.0)MACH62-70L0%0.0
2-16Ball St. (233.0)MACA50-56W100%0.0
2-20Ohio (67.0)MACA73-50L0%0.0
2-23Missouri St. (203.0)MVCH54-57L0%0.0
2-27Northern Illinois (333.0)MACA41-53W100%0.0
3-2Western Michigan (128.0)MACH50-49W100%0.0
3-5Central Michigan (268.0)MACA61-59L0%0.0
3-9Toledo (193.0)MACH67-78L0%0.0
3-11Northern Illinois (333.0)MACH45-44W100%0.0
3-13Miami OH (258.0)MACN58-47W100%0.0
3-14Western Michigan (128.0)MACN70-55L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.3726.3739.2039.20-5.70-5.70
Western MichiganMAC5.605.6060.7160.711.201.20
Northern IllinoisMAC5.595.5915.3815.38-3.87-3.87
Central MichiganMAC4.014.0132.1432.14-1.43-1.43
Ball St.MAC4.004.0048.1548.15-0.15-0.15
ToledoMAC4.004.0050.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC3.913.9128.5728.57-1.68-1.68
OhioMAC2.412.4171.8871.881.061.06
BuffaloMAC2.392.3938.7138.71-0.54-0.54
Bowling GreenMAC2.332.3334.4834.48-0.72-0.72
Kent St.MAC2.312.3158.0658.060.370.37
AkronMAC2.302.3080.0080.001.381.38
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.841.8436.6736.67-0.49-0.49
IUPU Fort WayneSum1.831.8346.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB101.801.8077.4277.420.980.98
OaklandSum1.791.7944.8344.83-0.19-0.19
MassachusettsA101.771.7764.5264.520.520.52
PurdueB101.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Texas Pan AmericanGWC1.661.6644.4444.44-0.18-0.18
Jacksonville St.OVC1.641.6456.0056.000.200.20
KentuckySEC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
Missouri St.MVC1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
SyracuseBE1.611.6173.5373.530.760.76
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.300.3046.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.290.2937.9337.93-0.07-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.240.2478.1278.120.130.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.220.2228.5728.57-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
Wright St.Horz0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
BradleyMVC0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2028.0028.00-0.09-0.09
Chicago St.GWC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.190.1945.4545.45-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.190.1960.0060.000.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.180.1871.4371.430.080.08
North Carolina St.ACC0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
DaytonA100.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1620.0020.00-0.10-0.10
IowaB100.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
High PointBSth0.160.1653.5753.570.010.01
Michigan St.B100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
Penn St.B100.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
TempleA100.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
LouisvilleBE0.150.1585.2985.290.100.10
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
South FloridaBE0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
SamfordSC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
GramblingSWAC0.110.110.000.00-0.11-0.11
MinnesotaB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
DrakeMVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.107.147.14-0.09-0.09
IllinoisB100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
Notre DameBE0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
PrincetonIvy0.100.1059.2659.260.020.02
PittsburghBE0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
New Orleansind0.080.0818.1818.18-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistGWC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Texas St.WAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ButlerA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
WoffordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
CharlotteA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CreightonMVC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
PacificBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
XavierA100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0648.0048.00-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Texas ArlingtonWAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NC AshevilleBSth0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0517.2417.24-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
St. LouisA100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
HoustonCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Middle TennesseeSB0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Southern MethodistCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0353.8553.850.000.00
ElonSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Long IslandNEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
OklahomaB120.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutBE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MonmouthNEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RutgersBE0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01