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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:113.0
Current RPI:113
Expected SOS:78
Current SOS:78
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:96
Expected OOC SOS:35



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15113.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Vermont (126.0)AEH70-50W100%0.0
11-18Oakland (116.0)HorzA91-81L0%0.0
11-23Michigan St. (12.0)B10A89-65L0%0.0
12-1Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA73-80W100%0.0
12-5Penn St. (125.0)B10A81-70L0%0.0
12-12Louisville (17.0)ACCA86-53L0%0.0
12-21Coppin St. (326.0)MEACA62-73W100%0.0
12-28Detroit (204.0)HorzH88-73W100%0.0
1-2North Florida (161.0)ASunH77-82L0%0.0
1-6Central Michigan (156.0)MACA80-99W100%0.0
1-9Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA80-63L0%0.0
1-12Buffalo (90.0)MACH81-69W100%0.0
1-16Bowling Green (200.0)MACH79-84L0%0.0
1-19Akron (34.0)MACA92-88L0%0.0
1-23Ball St. (179.0)MACH87-88L0%0.0
1-26Kent St. (124.0)MACA73-58L0%0.0
1-30Western Michigan (202.0)MACA94-86L0%0.0
2-2Miami OH (195.0)MACH94-69W100%0.0
2-6Buffalo (90.0)MACA80-70L0%0.0
2-9Central Michigan (156.0)MACH71-56W100%0.0
2-13Kent St. (124.0)MACH75-70W100%0.0
2-16Ohio (81.0)MACA86-64L0%0.0
2-20Toledo (182.0)MACH91-85W100%0.0
2-23Western Michigan (202.0)MACH73-62W100%0.0
2-27Ball St. (179.0)MACA115-79L0%0.0
3-1Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH75-71W100%0.0
3-4Toledo (182.0)MACA75-79W100%0.0
3-7Toledo (182.0)MACH69-60W100%0.0
3-10Akron (34.0)MACN65-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.3726.3749.5749.57-0.23-0.23
ToledoMAC6.016.0157.1457.140.860.86
AkronMAC4.374.3774.1974.192.112.11
Northern IllinoisMAC4.374.3759.2659.260.810.81
BuffaloMAC4.364.3658.0658.060.700.70
Western MichiganMAC4.354.3535.7135.71-1.24-1.24
Central MichiganMAC4.314.3151.8551.850.160.16
Ball St.MAC4.294.2955.1755.170.440.44
Kent St.MAC4.254.2558.6258.620.730.73
Bowling GreenMAC2.782.7841.9441.94-0.45-0.45
Miami OHMAC2.722.7238.7138.71-0.61-0.61
OhioMAC2.692.6963.3363.330.720.72
OaklandHorz1.891.8964.5264.520.550.55
DetroitHorz1.891.8950.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B101.831.8384.8584.851.281.28
Penn St.B101.831.8348.3948.39-0.06-0.06
LouisvilleACC1.781.7873.3373.330.830.83
Coppin St.MEAC1.781.7825.0025.00-0.89-0.89
VermontAE1.781.7862.5062.500.440.44
North FloridaASun1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
Nebraska OmahaSum1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
Cleveland St.Horz0.360.3623.3323.33-0.19-0.19
Youngstown St.Horz0.310.3130.0030.00-0.12-0.12
Wright St.Horz0.280.2860.6160.610.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.2532.2632.26-0.09-0.09
Green BayHorz0.250.2563.6463.640.070.07
Northern KentuckyHorz0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
South Carolina St.MEAC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Ohio St.B100.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1710.7110.71-0.14-0.14
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1780.0080.000.100.10
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.140.143.453.45-0.13-0.13
IUPUISum0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
LipscombASun0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
CanisiusMAAC0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
HowardMEAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
HartfordAE0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
DukeACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
PurdueB100.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
DenverSum0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VCUA100.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
UMBCAE0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
RutgersB100.080.0819.3519.35-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0682.1482.140.040.04
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01