live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog



Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:175.9
Current RPI:158
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:289
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:250



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-634.80.04%
20-753.30.19%
19-862.70.48%
18-979.91.72%
17-1097.84.40%
16-11116.78.48%
15-12138.113.55%
14-13160.317.53%
13-14182.518.40%
12-15204.414.87%
11-16227.311.13%
10-17249.05.65%
9-18268.92.56%
8-19287.70.76%
7-20300.80.22%
6-21324.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Oakland (245.0)HorzH89-77W100%0.0
11-21Youngstown St. (275.2)HorzH71-62W100%0.0
11-22UNC Greensboro (317.2)SCH70-62W100%0.0
11-23Longwood (328.3)BSthH0-091%15.9
12-6Dayton (42.8)A10A0-010%-15.6
12-9Michigan (46.1)B10A0-08%-17.1
12-17Michigan St. (30.7)B10A0-05%-19.9
12-20Missouri St. (146.0)MVCA0-028%-7.2
12-23Coppin St. (249.1)MEACH0-079%9.5
1-7Ball St. (233.5)MACH0-071%6.6
1-10Miami OH (237.8)MACA0-052%0.5
1-14Kent St. (73.2)MACA0-018%-10.8
1-17Northern Illinois (211.6)MACH0-066%5.0
1-21Bowling Green (101.8)MACA0-025%-8.1
1-24Central Michigan (211.7)MACA0-043%-2.0
1-27Ohio (113.5)MACH0-048%-0.5
1-31Western Michigan (127.8)MACH0-052%0.7
2-4Toledo (75.9)MACA0-019%-10.5
2-7Ohio (113.5)MACA0-026%-7.7
2-10Miami OH (237.8)MACH0-074%7.7
2-14Akron (100.7)MACH0-043%-2.0
2-18Buffalo (78.0)MACH0-045%-1.4
2-21Northern Illinois (211.6)MACA0-043%-2.2
2-24Central Michigan (211.7)MACH0-067%5.2
2-28Western Michigan (127.8)MACA0-030%-6.5
3-3Ball St. (233.5)MACA0-048%-0.6
3-6Toledo (75.9)MACH0-039%-3.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC32.6426.37100.0048.2032.64-0.95
Central MichiganMAC2.084.63100.0046.122.08-0.36
ToledoMAC0.004.6133.3363.71-0.001.27
Ball St.MAC0.004.610.0036.05-0.00-1.29
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.61100.0046.020.00-0.37
Western MichiganMAC2.784.59100.0054.352.780.40
Miami OHMAC0.004.5766.6733.870.00-1.47
OhioMAC0.004.5050.0055.750.000.52
AkronMAC0.002.8166.6763.990.000.79
Bowling GreenMAC0.002.81100.0061.000.000.62
Kent St.MAC2.082.81100.0070.602.081.16
BuffaloMAC0.002.8066.6760.820.000.60
Youngstown St.Horz16.672.0933.3336.93-5.56-0.55
OaklandHorz16.672.080.0033.64-16.67-0.68
LongwoodBSth4.862.0533.3323.22-1.62-1.10
Michigan St.B100.001.9566.6770.750.000.81
DaytonA100.001.9566.6768.900.000.74
MichiganB100.001.95100.0063.340.000.52
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.920.0034.14-0.00-0.61
UNC GreensboroSC16.671.920.0033.91-16.67-0.62
Missouri St.MVC0.001.8550.0051.070.000.04
NorthwesternB100.000.34100.0042.120.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.23100.0063.550.000.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.2366.6758.650.000.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2233.3346.93-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.2033.3354.50-0.000.02
ValparaisoHorz0.000.2066.6754.020.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1925.0035.65-0.00-0.06
DrakeMVC0.000.170.0025.08-0.00-0.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.170.0033.25-0.00-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.000.1666.6752.550.000.01
IllinoisB100.000.16100.0067.100.000.06
IowaB100.000.1650.0065.570.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.16100.0071.340.000.07
BradleyMVC0.000.140.0027.82-0.00-0.06
MaineAE0.000.140.0018.23-0.00-0.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.140.0044.91-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1366.6752.030.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1325.0033.97-0.00-0.04
George WashingtonA100.000.1366.6776.510.000.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.130.0038.59-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.13100.0074.620.000.06
Green BayHorz0.000.130.0067.49-0.000.05
IndianaB100.000.13100.0062.040.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.130.0033.14-0.00-0.04
MarylandB100.000.13100.0064.500.000.04
OregonP120.000.13100.0071.440.000.05
LibertyBSth0.000.1333.3335.41-0.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0025.43-0.00-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1325.0041.91-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1050.0049.760.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0052.920.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.780.1066.6748.790.93-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1025.0049.94-0.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.100.0037.13-0.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.1025.0051.56-0.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.100.0035.64-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.1066.6746.540.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.1050.0037.560.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.100.0028.08-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.100.0049.23-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.1075.0047.170.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.1033.3341.21-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.100.0024.77-0.00-0.05
UMKCWAC0.000.1033.3355.40-0.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.10100.0084.890.000.07
BucknellPat0.000.0925.0035.71-0.00-0.03
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0933.3340.99-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.09100.0086.130.000.07
VCUA100.000.09100.0073.570.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0033.98-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0733.3353.79-0.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.070.0041.97-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0071.440.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0029.910.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0766.6748.330.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0031.92-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0733.3321.74-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.0766.6773.760.000.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0072.860.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0072.420.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0733.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0085.100.000.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0733.3341.92-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0750.0053.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0733.3344.56-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0037.850.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0733.3325.18-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.50-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0035.51-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0047.120.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0031.810.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0750.0052.260.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0018.48-0.00-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.070.0040.40-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0733.3345.85-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0725.0031.88-0.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0080.630.000.04
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0028.19-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.0766.6769.700.000.03
VMISC0.000.0733.3339.27-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0775.0075.140.000.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0041.59-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0076.190.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0675.0055.790.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0620.0026.89-0.00-0.03
MinnesotaB100.000.0666.6761.350.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6752.320.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0024.17-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.06100.0060.550.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6765.320.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0650.0054.970.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.060.0063.56-0.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0035.11-0.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0666.6768.980.000.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0063.720.000.02
La SalleA100.000.06100.0053.840.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0044.810.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.17-0.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.060.0036.19-0.00-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0633.3345.63-0.00-0.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0650.0060.360.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0042.47-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3354.70-0.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6746.900.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6753.050.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0350.0061.440.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.030.0033.55-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.27-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6762.810.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0320.0027.80-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0034.81-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0325.0025.21-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0073.290.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0072.02-0.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0350.0041.720.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0350.0068.880.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0032.69-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0042.57-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.03100.0046.040.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0375.0068.160.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0375.0053.860.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0073.660.000.02
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0333.3359.57-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.900.000.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0030.19-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0053.080.000.00
Iowa St.B122.780.03100.0061.832.780.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0061.790.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0073.530.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.600.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0325.0059.16-0.000.01
NavyPat0.000.030.0032.62-0.00-0.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6750.790.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.03100.0056.240.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0366.6767.450.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6751.290.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0044.850.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.03100.0030.790.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0037.22-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3332.78-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0366.6762.540.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.030.0034.71-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0366.6756.650.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0340.0040.58-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0333.3324.07-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3349.33-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00