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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:174.0
Current RPI:174
Expected SOS:105
Current SOS:105
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:113
Expected OOC SOS:80



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17174.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA93-90L0%0.0
11-13SMU (13.0)AmerA91-64L0%0.0
11-18Gardner Webb (186.0)BSthN76-68W100%0.0
11-19IUPUI (218.0)SumA83-71L0%0.0
11-26Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH94-77W100%0.0
11-30Detroit (289.0)HorzA61-87W100%0.0
12-17Vermont (46.0)AEA82-74L0%0.0
12-19Syracuse (84.0)ACCA105-57L0%0.0
12-29Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH98-72W100%0.0
1-3Central Michigan (216.0)MACH85-63W100%0.0
1-7Buffalo (146.0)MACH68-77L0%0.0
1-10Bowling Green (225.0)MACA53-81W100%0.0
1-14Ohio (117.0)MACA49-53W100%0.0
1-17Western Michigan (173.0)MACH86-80W100%0.0
1-20Akron (58.0)MACA70-63L0%0.0
1-24Ball St. (169.0)MACH80-88L0%0.0
1-28Miami OH (302.0)MACA57-74W100%0.0
1-31Kent St. (142.0)MACH64-70L0%0.0
2-4Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA81-69L0%0.0
2-7Toledo (155.0)MACA73-57L0%0.0
2-10Akron (58.0)MACH76-87L0%0.0
2-14Ohio (117.0)MACH71-79L0%0.0
2-18Western Michigan (173.0)MACA88-80L0%0.0
2-21Ball St. (169.0)MACA79-72L0%0.0
2-25Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH84-68W100%0.0
2-28Central Michigan (216.0)MACA81-109W100%0.0
3-3Toledo (155.0)MACH56-60L0%0.0
3-6Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH72-69W100%0.0
3-9Akron (58.0)MACN79-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.4226.4242.9642.96-3.72-3.72
AkronMAC5.955.9573.3373.332.782.78
Northern IllinoisMAC5.915.9142.3142.31-0.91-0.91
Ball St.MAC4.434.4360.0060.000.890.89
Western MichiganMAC4.424.4248.2848.28-0.15-0.15
ToledoMAC4.374.3746.6746.67-0.29-0.29
Central MichiganMAC4.284.2850.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC4.274.2764.2964.291.221.22
Kent St.MAC2.842.8460.6160.610.600.60
Miami OHMAC2.702.7031.0331.03-1.02-1.02
Bowling GreenMAC2.662.6640.0040.00-0.53-0.53
BuffaloMAC2.632.6348.2848.28-0.09-0.09
IUPUISum1.891.8937.9337.93-0.46-0.46
PittsburghACC1.891.8946.8846.88-0.12-0.12
Nebraska OmahaSum1.841.8456.6756.670.240.24
DetroitHorz1.811.8124.1424.14-0.93-0.93
SMUAmer1.781.7887.8887.881.351.35
SyracuseACC1.781.7854.8454.840.170.17
Gardner WebbBSth1.781.7855.1755.170.180.18
Long Beach St.BW1.721.7241.9441.94-0.28-0.28
VermontAE1.721.7284.3884.381.191.19
Green BayHorz0.250.2555.1755.170.030.03
Indiana St.MVC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
MarshallCUSA0.220.2255.8855.880.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2026.6726.67-0.09-0.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.09-0.09
UC IrvineBW0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.150.1541.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1429.4129.41-0.06-0.06
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.140.1435.7135.71-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1460.7160.710.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.140.1423.0823.08-0.08-0.08
OaklandHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
IllinoisB100.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
DenverSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1184.3884.380.080.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
MaineAE0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
New HampshireAE0.110.1158.6258.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
VirginiaACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
AlbanyAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
ElonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0917.2417.24-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
MinnesotaB100.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
High PointBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.090.0980.0080.000.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UCLAP120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
WashingtonP120.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
AmericanPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
BryantNEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0691.1891.180.050.05
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
YaleIvy0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00