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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:150.0
Current RPI:154
Expected SOS:81
Current SOS:81
Current Record:7-12
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-1
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:98
Expected OOC SOS:43



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-1281.30.39%
14-1397.53.22%
13-14116.112.44%
12-15135.925.18%
11-16154.527.78%
10-17170.620.42%
9-18186.28.19%
8-19202.52.17%
7-20217.90.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Vermont (150.4)AEH70-50W100%0.0
11-18Oakland (113.0)HorzA91-81L0%0.0
11-23Michigan St. (17.6)B10A89-65L0%0.0
12-1Nebraska Omaha (136.0)SumA73-80W100%0.0
12-5Penn St. (131.0)B10A81-70L0%0.0
12-12Louisville (16.1)ACCA86-53L0%0.0
12-21Coppin St. (321.3)MEACA62-73W100%0.0
12-28Detroit (208.4)HorzH88-73W100%0.0
1-2North Florida (137.4)ASunH77-82L0%0.0
1-6Central Michigan (132.1)MACA80-99W100%0.0
1-9Northern Illinois (136.7)MACA80-63L0%0.0
1-12Buffalo (86.0)MACH81-69W100%0.0
1-16Bowling Green (192.9)MACH79-84L0%0.0
1-19Akron (35.0)MACA92-88L0%0.0
1-23Ball St. (155.9)MACH87-88L0%0.0
1-26Kent St. (113.5)MACA73-58L0%0.0
1-30Western Michigan (203.7)MACA94-86L0%0.0
2-2Miami OH (232.7)MACH94-69W100%0.0
2-6Buffalo (86.0)MACA80-70L0%0.0
2-9Central Michigan (132.1)MACH0-059%2.5
2-13Kent St. (113.5)MACH0-065%4.2
2-16Ohio (108.9)MACA0-037%-3.6
2-20Toledo (147.0)MACH0-051%0.4
2-23Western Michigan (203.7)MACH0-071%6.0
2-27Ball St. (155.9)MACA0-043%-2.0
3-1Northern Illinois (136.7)MACH0-065%4.2
3-4Toledo (147.0)MACA0-028%-6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.2626.3040.7442.68-4.86-3.85
ToledoMAC0.744.6359.0960.060.130.93
Western MichiganMAC3.124.5630.0033.33-1.25-1.52
Ball St.MAC3.124.5461.9057.850.740.71
Central MichiganMAC3.184.5352.6353.530.170.32
Northern IllinoisMAC3.004.5261.1158.100.670.73
Kent St.MAC3.124.4961.9058.870.740.80
BuffaloMAC5.754.4960.0059.511.150.85
AkronMAC3.202.7880.9579.341.981.63
Bowling GreenMAC3.132.7750.0045.150.00-0.27
OhioMAC0.572.7461.9059.300.140.51
Miami OHMAC3.192.7333.3331.53-1.06-1.01
OaklandHorz2.752.0166.6766.910.920.68
DetroitHorz2.752.0150.0047.620.00-0.10
Penn St.B102.751.9747.8344.97-0.12-0.20
Michigan St.B102.801.9782.6182.451.821.28
LouisvilleACC2.741.9181.8276.991.751.03
VermontAE2.751.9156.5259.500.360.36
Coppin St.MEAC2.691.8815.7923.25-1.84-1.01
North FloridaASun2.691.8863.6465.930.730.60
Nebraska OmahaSum2.631.8559.0958.400.480.31
Cleveland St.Horz0.410.3521.7422.74-0.23-0.19
Youngstown St.Horz0.350.2830.4332.35-0.14-0.10
Wright St.Horz0.370.2656.5257.000.050.04
Green BayHorz0.180.2254.5556.000.020.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.250.2229.1733.15-0.10-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.205.007.23-0.17-0.17
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1959.0959.640.030.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.1933.3335.09-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1981.8283.040.110.13
NortheasternCAA0.290.1945.8346.66-0.02-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.280.1821.7424.67-0.16-0.09
IPFWSum0.180.1670.8368.570.070.06
Chicago St.WAC0.180.164.357.73-0.17-0.14
South Carolina St.MEAC0.250.1650.0053.300.000.01
IUPUISum0.180.1640.0039.79-0.04-0.03
Ohio St.B100.120.1658.3354.160.020.01
PittsburghACC0.180.1676.1968.220.090.06
IowaB100.230.1682.6180.580.150.09
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1544.0045.31-0.03-0.01
HowardMEAC0.130.1438.1040.73-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.180.1341.6741.24-0.03-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1345.4546.30-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.1347.6252.07-0.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1350.0049.860.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.1382.6181.140.120.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.1331.8236.14-0.05-0.04
LipscombASun0.180.1325.0029.27-0.09-0.05
NJITASun0.120.1354.1755.250.010.01
HartfordAE0.170.1226.0926.50-0.08-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.170.1271.4368.970.070.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1243.4842.62-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.120.1273.9170.040.060.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.1040.9149.27-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.130.1040.9145.30-0.02-0.01
MissouriSEC0.130.1034.7830.36-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1039.1341.12-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1056.5260.000.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.1052.0050.250.010.00
Iowa St.B120.190.1073.9170.060.090.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1021.7423.40-0.06-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.0940.9143.53-0.02-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.180.0940.9143.71-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.180.0973.9173.900.080.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.0942.8650.41-0.020.00
DePaulBE0.120.0934.7834.45-0.04-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.120.0927.7834.50-0.05-0.03
UMBCAE0.120.0924.0026.41-0.06-0.04
IllinoisB100.110.0945.8344.11-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.170.0926.0927.82-0.08-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.0922.7324.73-0.06-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.110.0942.8646.34-0.02-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.0972.0070.510.050.04
PurdueB100.110.0979.1776.550.060.05
Boston CollegeACC0.170.0930.4326.50-0.07-0.04
MichiganB100.160.0969.5766.220.060.03
NebraskaB100.050.0954.1751.810.000.00
NorthwesternB100.110.0966.6763.420.040.02
RutgersB100.050.0921.7420.35-0.03-0.05
VirginiaACC0.110.0982.6178.050.070.05
WisconsinB100.110.0960.8755.840.020.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.079.5213.52-0.00-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0720.0026.74-0.04-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.120.0721.0523.58-0.07-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.54-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.070.0754.5554.930.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0766.6769.500.020.03
DenverSum0.110.0754.1751.800.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0725.0024.36-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0717.6529.24-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0763.6462.140.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0777.2776.860.030.04
StetsonASun0.110.0723.8127.69-0.06-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0745.4554.11-0.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0722.7323.25-0.03-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.070.0765.0069.270.020.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0727.7829.14-0.05-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0771.4369.840.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.0730.4335.11-0.05-0.02
UCFAmer0.120.0752.3845.700.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.120.0652.1755.930.010.01
DaytonA100.120.0686.3682.380.090.04
James MadisonCAA0.060.0670.8369.500.030.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.7836.50-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0672.7370.750.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0631.8229.14-0.02-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0670.5975.550.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0676.1973.400.030.03
ColoradoP120.110.0669.5765.330.040.02
Saint LouisA100.110.0636.3633.47-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.0637.5043.37-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.110.0628.5732.71-0.05-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0647.6252.67-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.060.0650.0051.170.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0620.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0669.5764.890.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0638.8945.66-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.110.0675.0075.850.050.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.5012.85-0.04-0.05
DelawareCAA0.120.0621.7423.32-0.07-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0652.1751.960.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0622.7324.97-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.110.0634.7834.00-0.03-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0671.4369.420.000.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0655.0053.180.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0656.5262.780.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.5257.280.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.120.0682.6178.890.080.04
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0625.0022.76-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0690.9186.130.050.04
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0650.0049.440.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0680.9582.700.030.04
UMass LowellAE0.050.0631.8232.67-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.110.0665.2266.090.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.0622.7327.19-0.06-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0652.1751.590.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0679.1774.020.030.03
MarylandB100.110.0687.5083.690.080.04
CaliforniaP120.070.0465.2262.880.020.01
CreightonBE0.070.0462.5059.780.020.01
FordhamA100.070.0455.0052.290.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0457.1459.470.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0460.8758.470.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0454.5550.110.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0435.0035.98-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0465.2259.750.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.060.0365.2260.270.020.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0328.5726.96-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0365.0066.790.020.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0314.2915.46-0.04-0.02
WyomingMWC0.060.0343.4842.50-0.01-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0370.8370.840.030.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0321.7423.66-0.04-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.060.0347.3749.97-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0313.6415.80-0.05-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0366.6762.620.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0365.2261.450.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0323.8126.56-0.03-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.79-0.02-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.02-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0360.8760.730.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0324.0024.57-0.03-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0338.1037.44-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.120.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0368.1866.670.020.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0386.9686.370.040.02
XavierBE0.060.0391.3084.380.050.02
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.650.030.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0331.5831.80-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0336.8438.39-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0363.6462.530.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0354.5558.140.000.00
ClemsonACC0.060.0360.8760.240.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0352.3850.410.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0313.6418.14-0.04-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.430.010.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.420.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
KansasB120.050.0381.8277.570.030.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0373.9171.550.030.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0381.8276.740.000.02
North CarolinaACC0.060.0382.6178.690.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0369.5765.850.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.030.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.270.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.73-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6762.560.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
VMISC0.050.0315.7917.42-0.04-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0343.4840.61-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.050.0365.2261.070.020.01