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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:139.0
Current RPI:139
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:160
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC Record:7-2
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13139.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17Oakland (155.0)HorzH89-77W100%0.0
11-21Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH71-62W100%0.0
11-22UNC Greensboro (309.0)SCH70-62W100%0.0
11-23Longwood (316.0)BSthH79-48W100%0.0
12-6Dayton (32.0)A10A73-64L0%0.0
12-9Michigan (81.0)B10A42-45W100%0.0
12-17Michigan St. (23.0)B10A66-46L0%0.0
12-20Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA65-77W100%0.0
12-23Coppin St. (311.0)MEACH87-64W100%0.0
1-7Ball St. (284.0)MACH59-60L0%0.0
1-10Miami OH (229.0)MACA82-81L0%0.0
1-14Kent St. (94.0)MACA65-59L0%0.0
1-17Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH54-46W100%0.0
1-21Bowling Green (109.0)MACA74-58L0%0.0
1-24Central Michigan (70.0)MACA65-51L0%0.0
1-27Ohio (231.0)MACH76-40W100%0.0
1-31Western Michigan (119.0)MACH69-63W100%0.0
2-4Toledo (79.0)MACA84-60L0%0.0
2-7Ohio (231.0)MACA76-73L0%0.0
2-10Miami OH (229.0)MACH83-69W100%0.0
2-14Akron (115.0)MACH78-75W100%0.0
2-18Buffalo (28.0)MACH63-78L0%0.0
2-21Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA65-73W100%0.0
2-24Central Michigan (70.0)MACH56-72L0%0.0
2-28Western Michigan (119.0)MACA80-72L0%0.0
3-3Ball St. (284.0)MACA60-67W100%0.0
3-6Toledo (79.0)MACH85-59W100%0.0
3-9Miami OH (229.0)MACH62-61W100%0.0
3-11Bowling Green (109.0)MACN67-73W100%0.0
3-12Toledo (79.0)MACN78-67L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.4726.4756.5656.563.473.47
ToledoMAC5.865.8660.0060.001.171.17
Miami OHMAC5.795.7939.2939.29-1.24-1.24
Central MichiganMAC4.304.3069.2369.231.661.66
Bowling GreenMAC4.264.2667.8667.861.521.52
Western MichiganMAC4.264.2658.6258.620.730.73
Ball St.MAC4.264.2618.5218.52-2.68-2.68
Northern IllinoisMAC4.264.2648.1548.15-0.16-0.16
OhioMAC4.184.1832.1432.14-1.49-1.49
AkronMAC2.782.7860.6160.610.590.59
BuffaloMAC2.652.6570.9770.971.111.11
Kent St.MAC2.642.6463.3363.330.700.70
OaklandHorz1.881.8848.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz1.861.8628.5728.57-0.80-0.80
LongwoodBSth1.861.8629.0329.03-0.78-0.78
DaytonA101.801.8075.0075.000.900.90
Michigan St.B101.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
MichiganB101.741.7450.0050.000.000.00
UNC GreensboroSC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Coppin St.MEAC1.721.7224.1424.14-0.89-0.89
Missouri St.MVC1.671.6732.1432.14-0.60-0.60
DetroitHorz0.300.3041.9441.94-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.300.3046.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.250.2531.0331.03-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.220.2260.0060.000.040.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1925.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Ohio St.B100.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.170.1783.3383.330.110.11
DrakeMVC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
IllinoisB100.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.160.1658.0658.060.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1328.5728.57-0.06-0.06
LibertyBSth0.130.1314.2914.29-0.09-0.09
Robert MorrisNEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
OregonP120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
WisconsinB100.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
MarylandB100.130.1381.8281.820.080.08
VCUA100.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
BradleyMVC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
MaineAE0.120.1210.0010.00-0.09-0.09
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
ElonCAA0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Northern KentuckyASun0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
BucknellPat0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0690.9190.910.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0675.8675.860.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.050.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
High PointBSth0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PacificWCC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UMBCAE0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0264.7164.710.010.01
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01