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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Eastern Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:86.0
Current RPI:86
Expected SOS:85
Current SOS:85
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:13-9
Expected Conf Record:13-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:53
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1486.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Robert Morris (129.0)NECH69-64W100%0.0
11-18Cleveland St. (91.0)HorzH81-69W100%0.0
11-23UT Arlington (199.0)SBH74-69W100%0.0
11-27Kentucky (17.0)SECA81-63L0%0.0
12-3Massachusetts (23.0)A10H57-69L0%0.0
12-7Purdue (145.0)B10A69-64L0%0.0
12-10Green Bay (58.0)HorzH67-58W100%0.0
12-21Oakland (181.0)HorzA79-81W100%0.0
12-28Duke (9.0)ACCA82-59L0%0.0
12-31Syracuse (16.0)ACCA70-48L0%0.0
1-8Bowling Green (194.0)MACA51-56W100%0.0
1-11Buffalo (106.0)MACA76-66L0%0.0
1-14Western Michigan (66.0)MACH56-37W100%0.0
1-18Central Michigan (294.0)MACA59-72W100%0.0
1-22Akron (93.0)MACH68-78L0%0.0
1-25Ohio (87.0)MACH56-58L0%0.0
1-29Bowling Green (194.0)MACH69-57W100%0.0
2-1Miami OH (161.0)MACA65-61L0%0.0
2-5Akron (93.0)MACA52-48L0%0.0
2-8Kent St. (213.0)MACH70-53W100%0.0
2-12Ball St. (309.0)MACA62-73W100%0.0
2-15Toledo (38.0)MACH65-44W100%0.0
2-20Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA61-59L0%0.0
2-23Western Michigan (66.0)MACA75-67L0%0.0
2-26Central Michigan (294.0)MACH64-42W100%0.0
3-1Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH56-52W100%0.0
3-4Ball St. (309.0)MACH72-58W100%0.0
3-8Toledo (38.0)MACA77-66L0%0.0
3-10Central Michigan (294.0)MACH72-60W100%0.0
3-12Northern Illinois (217.0)MACN53-48W100%0.0
3-13Buffalo (106.0)MACN64-69W100%0.0
3-14Toledo (38.0)MACN59-44L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern MichiganMAC26.5326.5356.9256.923.673.67
ToledoMAC5.615.6182.7682.763.683.68
Northern IllinoisMAC5.595.5946.4346.43-0.40-0.40
Central MichiganMAC5.485.4830.7730.77-2.11-2.11
Western MichiganMAC4.124.1272.4172.411.851.85
Ball St.MAC4.074.0711.5411.54-3.13-3.13
AkronMAC3.983.9861.2961.290.900.90
Bowling GreenMAC3.973.9737.9337.93-0.96-0.96
BuffaloMAC3.963.9665.3865.381.221.22
OhioMAC2.612.6165.6265.620.820.82
Kent St.MAC2.512.5150.0050.000.000.00
Miami OHMAC2.512.5141.3841.38-0.43-0.43
Cleveland St.Horz1.941.9465.5265.520.600.60
Robert MorrisNEC1.791.7963.6463.640.490.49
OaklandHorz1.771.7736.6736.67-0.47-0.47
MassachusettsA101.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
Green BayHorz1.661.6680.7780.771.021.02
KentuckySEC1.641.6469.7069.700.650.65
UT ArlingtonSB1.631.6344.8344.83-0.17-0.17
DukeACC1.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
SyracuseACC1.611.6183.8783.871.091.09
PurdueB101.561.5645.1645.16-0.15-0.15
DetroitHorz0.400.4036.6736.67-0.11-0.11
Wright St.Horz0.290.2956.2556.250.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2660.6160.610.060.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.260.2641.3841.38-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.190.1922.5822.58-0.11-0.11
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
UICHorz0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
NebraskaB100.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.130.1378.7978.790.070.07
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1241.1841.18-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
NorthwesternB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
ClemsonACC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
LSUSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
DrexelCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0834.6234.62-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.073.703.70-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Michigan St.B100.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ElonSC0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
TexasB120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ColgatePat0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
IowaB100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
RiderMAAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
AuburnSEC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01