Indiana St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	133.0
Current RPI:	117
Expected SOS:	139
Current SOS:	119
Current Record:	13-10
Expected Record:	16-13
Current Conf Record:	5-8
Expected Conf Record:	7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.79%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-2
Current OOC Record:	8-2
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	106
Expected OOC SOS:	300

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-10	85.5	0.47%
18-11	99.1	4.66%
17-12	113.0	18.84%
16-13	127.8	33.65%
15-14	144.1	29.52%
14-15	162.4	11.37%
13-16	181.2	1.48%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Eastern Illinois (293.4)	OVC	H	79-72	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	A	59-71	W	100%	0.0
11-18	Ball St. (222.5)	MAC	H	57-50	W	100%	0.0
11-21	Wisconsin Green Bay (187.0)	Horz	H	57-56	W	100%	0.0
11-24	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	N	60-49	W	100%	0.0
11-25	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	N	76-69	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Fairfield (138.4)	MAAC	N	72-66	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	74-65	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Vanderbilt (31.5)	SEC	A	55-61	W	100%	0.0
12-21	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	50-35	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Drake (135.2)	MVC	A	79-64	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	H	77-66	W	100%	0.0
1-4	Northern Iowa (60.5)	MVC	A	65-48	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	H	63-69	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Evansville (156.6)	MVC	H	80-78	W	100%	0.0
1-13	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	A	73-67	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	H	65-75	L	0%	0.0
1-18	Illinois St. (109.5)	MVC	A	67-54	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	A	75-49	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Northern Iowa (60.5)	MVC	H	59-54	W	100%	0.0
1-29	Evansville (156.6)	MVC	A	81-90	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Drake (135.2)	MVC	H	61-54	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	A	71-66	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Bradley (248.0)	MVC	A	0-0		66%	4.6
2-11	Southern Illinois (227.1)	MVC	H	0-0		78%	8.5
2-14	Illinois St. (109.5)	MVC	H	0-0		45%	-1.3
2-18	Butler (143.2)	Horz	A	0-0		42%	-2.1
2-22	Missouri St. (82.4)	MVC	A	0-0		17%	-10.2
2-25	Creighton (21.0)	MVC	H	0-0		23%	-8.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Indiana St.	MVC	26.58	26.44	57.89	54.93	4.20	2.61
Drake	MVC	5.09	4.41	52.38	50.10	0.24	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	3.01	4.41	31.82	29.92	-1.10	-1.77
Evansville	MVC	5.04	4.40	50.00	47.40	0.00	-0.23
Bradley	MVC	3.02	4.39	25.00	25.41	-1.51	-2.16
Creighton	MVC	2.95	4.38	86.96	85.19	2.18	3.09
Illinois St.	MVC	2.97	4.38	60.87	60.97	0.65	0.96
Missouri St.	MVC	3.01	4.38	52.17	54.76	0.13	0.42
Northern Iowa	MVC	5.05	4.38	63.64	62.32	1.38	1.08
Wichita St.	MVC	5.05	4.38	80.95	78.97	3.12	2.54
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.35	3.45	9.52	9.68	-3.52	-2.78
Butler	Horz	0.26	1.88	50.00	50.57	0.00	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	2.17	1.81	57.89	59.54	0.34	0.35
Boise St.	MWC	2.27	1.78	40.00	38.95	-0.45	-0.39
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	2.17	1.78	36.84	40.90	-0.57	-0.32
Minnesota	B10	2.22	1.75	68.18	60.02	0.81	0.35
Fairfield	MAAC	2.22	1.75	57.14	56.24	0.32	0.22
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.17	1.72	35.00	35.79	-0.65	-0.49
Texas Tech	B12	2.17	1.72	33.33	26.88	-0.72	-0.80
Vanderbilt	SEC	2.17	1.72	72.73	68.06	0.99	0.62
Chicago St.	GWC	0.29	0.26	4.76	9.95	-0.26	-0.21
Iowa	B10	0.38	0.26	54.17	49.44	0.03	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.28	0.24	43.48	44.25	-0.04	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.15	0.21	30.00	30.06	-0.06	-0.09
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.20	0.21	26.32	29.71	-0.09	-0.09
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.21	19.05	21.29	-0.07	-0.12
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.20	0.21	56.52	57.72	0.03	0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.21	0.18	5.26	7.30	-0.18	-0.16
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.24	0.18	82.61	81.44	0.16	0.11
Arkansas St.	SB	0.23	0.18	37.50	38.33	-0.06	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.23	0.17	73.91	68.43	0.11	0.06
Tulsa	CUSA	0.19	0.17	60.87	59.05	0.04	0.03
Denver	SB	0.15	0.15	70.83	72.23	0.06	0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	40.91	38.38	-0.03	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.14	0.15	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.20	0.15	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.15	81.82	80.43	0.06	0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	76.19	70.73	0.08	0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.19	0.15	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	75.00	75.78	0.07	0.08
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.15	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.14	0.14	60.00	58.29	0.03	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.14	75.00	73.97	0.05	0.07
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.12	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.19	0.12	25.00	23.75	-0.09	-0.06
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.12	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.11	0.12	65.22	63.61	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.12	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.12	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.12	47.37	42.16	-0.01	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.14	0.12	34.78	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.12	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.20	0.12	30.00	34.15	-0.08	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.12	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.12	66.67	60.80	0.05	0.03
Fresno St.	WAC	0.15	0.12	39.13	44.52	-0.03	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.12	81.82	81.03	0.06	0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.12	33.33	37.25	-0.05	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.12	85.71	78.05	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M	B12	0.14	0.12	52.38	46.15	0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.14	0.12	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.12	72.73	68.28	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.14	0.12	40.91	39.82	-0.03	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.09	0.12	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.12	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.11	45.45	40.70	-0.01	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.11	90.91	87.74	0.11	0.09
Illinois	B10	0.14	0.11	72.73	64.43	0.06	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.09	0.11	80.95	76.42	0.05	0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.11	34.78	37.24	-0.04	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.09	4.35	9.66	-0.10	-0.08
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.09	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.09	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.15	0.09	27.78	29.87	-0.07	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.15	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.09	0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.14	0.09	27.78	29.58	-0.06	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.14	0.09	28.57	30.17	-0.06	-0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.15	0.09	21.05	22.46	-0.08	-0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.09	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.09	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.09	78.26	72.34	0.08	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.09	71.43	73.35	0.02	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.09	81.82	77.20	0.09	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.14	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.05	0.03
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.09	76.19	76.76	0.02	0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.09	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.14	0.09	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	80.77	80.75	0.06	0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.06	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	79.17	78.10	0.05	0.05
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.06	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.10	0.06	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.10	0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.06	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.06	33.33	37.16	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.06	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.06	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.04
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.00	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	79.17	75.98	0.06	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.06	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.06	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.06	55.00	60.33	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.09	0.06	66.67	62.65	0.03	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.06	79.17	80.10	0.03	0.04
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.06	68.00	69.07	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.00	0.06	69.57	68.90	0.00	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.67	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.09	0.06	77.27	75.06	0.05	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.06	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.61	-0.03	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.06	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.06	56.00	55.65	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.06	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.06	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.06	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.06	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.09	0.06	30.00	31.54	-0.04	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.00	0.06	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.06	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.06	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.06	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.06	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.06	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.06	65.22	60.58	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.00	0.05	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.06	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.04	0.06	34.78	32.08	-0.01	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.02	0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.04	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.01	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.04	0.06	33.33	41.31	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.06	40.91	39.56	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.04	0.06	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.06	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.35	0.01	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.05	0.02	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	33.33	33.88	-0.02	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.00	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.70	-0.03	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.05	-0.01	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.43	-0.02	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.03	35.00	38.58	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.15	0.01	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.00	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.00	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.00	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.03	81.82	81.49	0.00	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.00	0.03	69.57	68.29	0.00	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.03	47.06	50.75	-0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.05	0.03	43.48	42.95	-0.01	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	30.00	27.84	-0.02	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.05	0.03	28.00	28.91	-0.02	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.03	26.09	28.60	-0.02	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.00	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.53	0.02	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.03	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.03	41.67	38.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00