Indiana St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	74.0
Current RPI:	74
Expected SOS:	50
Current SOS:	50
Current Record:	17-14
Expected Record:	17-14
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-1
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	41
Expected OOC SOS:	19

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-14	74.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	86-59	L	0%
11-13	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	H	66-55	W	100%
11-20	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	48-68	W	100%
11-25	High Point (249.0)	BSth	H	76-62	W	100%
12-1	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	68-77	L	0%
12-8	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	A	71-63	L	0%
12-15	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	61-75	W	100%
12-22	Mississippi (47.0)	SEC	N	87-85	W	100%
12-23	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	N	62-55	L	0%
12-25	Miami FL (4.0)	ACC	N	55-57	W	100%
12-30	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	77-75	W	100%
1-2	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	61-65	W	100%
1-5	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	79-66	L	0%
1-9	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	68-53	W	100%
1-12	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	A	76-71	L	0%
1-16	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	68-60	W	100%
1-19	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	72-62	W	100%
1-23	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	60-58	L	0%
1-26	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	H	59-58	W	100%
1-29	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	55-68	W	100%
2-2	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	74-71	L	0%
2-6	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	H	76-57	W	100%
2-9	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	66-65	W	100%
2-12	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	67-65	L	0%
2-16	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	80-68	L	0%
2-19	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	H	62-66	L	0%
2-23	Iona (98.0)	MAAC	H	65-64	W	100%
2-27	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	56-67	L	0%
3-2	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	84-68	L	0%
3-8	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	N	50-51	W	100%
3-9	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	N	64-43	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Indiana St.	MVC	26.45	26.45	55.73	55.73	3.03	3.03
Creighton	MVC	5.81	5.81	80.65	80.65	3.56	3.56
Evansville	MVC	5.69	5.69	57.14	57.14	0.81	0.81
Wichita St.	MVC	4.31	4.31	78.12	78.12	2.43	2.43
Missouri St.	MVC	4.26	4.26	27.59	27.59	-1.91	-1.91
Drake	MVC	4.25	4.25	41.38	41.38	-0.73	-0.73
Illinois St.	MVC	4.24	4.24	54.84	54.84	0.41	0.41
Bradley	MVC	4.22	4.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.18	4.18	58.62	58.62	0.72	0.72
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.18	4.18	42.86	42.86	-0.60	-0.60
San Diego St.	MWC	1.76	1.76	65.52	65.52	0.55	0.55
New Mexico	MWC	1.69	1.69	84.85	84.85	1.18	1.18
IUPUI	Sum	1.69	1.69	13.79	13.79	-1.22	-1.22
High Point	BSth	1.64	1.64	55.56	55.56	0.18	0.18
Winthrop	BSth	1.64	1.64	40.74	40.74	-0.30	-0.30
Ball St.	MAC	1.64	1.64	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	1.64	1.64	72.73	72.73	0.75	0.75
Iona	MAAC	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Miami FL	ACC	1.61	1.61	84.38	84.38	1.11	1.11
Mississippi	SEC	1.61	1.61	78.79	78.79	0.93	0.93
Morehead St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Boise St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Fresno St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
St. Mary's	WCC	0.18	0.18	81.25	81.25	0.11	0.11
Wyoming	MWC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.16	0.16	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.16	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Longwood	BSth	0.16	0.16	19.35	19.35	-0.10	-0.10
Presbyterian	BSth	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.13	0.13	75.76	75.76	0.07	0.07
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.13	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.13	0.13	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	67.86	67.86	0.05	0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.12	0.12	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
UAB	CUSA	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.31	42.31	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Utah St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.02	0.02	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00