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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:140.9
Current RPI:140
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:74
Current Record:8-10
Expected Record:13-15
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-1
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:238
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1060.30.03%
17-1170.70.50%
16-1285.43.43%
15-13100.910.31%
14-14119.420.28%
13-15139.025.19%
12-16158.422.16%
11-17175.912.56%
10-18192.54.61%
9-19207.80.85%
8-20222.10.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Indiana (115.7)B10A69-90W100%0.0
11-16Auburn (17.9)SECN64-83L0%0.0
11-17Old Dominion (73.6)CUSAN62-44L0%0.0
11-19Ohio (173.1)MACN96-94L0%0.0
11-25Ball St. (115.8)MACH85-93L0%0.0
11-29Air Force (249.1)MWCH74-64W100%0.0
12-6North Texas (217.4)CUSAA79-76L0%0.0
12-12Green Bay (325.1)HorzH85-63W100%0.0
12-16Western Kentucky (45.3)CUSAA81-65L0%0.0
12-22Elon (143.4)CAAH68-73L0%0.0
12-28Valparaiso (151.6)MVCH73-64W100%0.0
12-31Illinois St. (119.5)MVCA84-81L0%0.0
1-3Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCA57-61W100%0.0
1-6Drake (160.6)MVCH72-75L0%0.0
1-10Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCH69-67W100%0.0
1-14Missouri St. (58.1)MVCA76-73L0%0.0
1-17Evansville (159.2)MVCA66-71W100%0.0
1-20Illinois St. (119.5)MVCH84-54W100%0.0
1-24Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCA0-040%-2.9
1-28Bradley (123.3)MVCH0-064%4.0
1-31Valparaiso (151.6)MVCA0-039%-3.0
2-3Northern Iowa (120.5)MVCA0-030%-5.9
2-6Missouri St. (58.1)MVCH0-046%-1.2
2-10Loyola Chicago (57.4)MVCH0-047%-0.9
2-14Drake (160.6)MVCA0-049%-0.2
2-17Southern Illinois (125.7)MVCH0-062%3.5
2-21Evansville (159.2)MVCH0-070%6.0
2-24Bradley (123.3)MVCA0-041%-2.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC26.4926.4042.8644.96-3.78-2.66
Missouri St.MVC3.444.5868.4267.661.271.62
ValparaisoMVC3.214.5750.0050.130.000.01
BradleyMVC0.594.5565.0058.640.180.79
DrakeMVC3.224.5552.6347.090.17-0.26
Southern IllinoisMVC0.594.5555.0052.720.060.25
EvansvilleMVC3.144.5455.5649.940.35-0.01
Illinois St.MVC5.844.5447.0645.80-0.34-0.38
Loyola ChicagoMVC3.224.5483.3377.722.142.52
Northern IowaMVC3.064.5447.0651.24-0.180.11
Western KentuckyCUSA3.001.9766.6769.811.000.78
Ball St.MAC2.931.8858.8257.280.520.27
Old DominionCUSA2.931.8877.7875.951.630.97
North TexasCUSA2.851.8541.1844.74-0.50-0.19
OhioMAC2.931.8543.7546.57-0.37-0.13
Air ForceMWC2.781.7940.0032.98-0.56-0.61
AuburnSEC2.781.7988.8976.242.160.94
ElonCAA2.781.7950.0049.340.00-0.02
Green BayHorz2.781.7926.3228.97-1.32-0.75
IndianaB102.781.7961.1152.460.620.09
Kent St.MAC0.230.2444.4444.92-0.03-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.290.2168.4269.250.110.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.220.2158.8249.760.04-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.2137.5037.68-0.04-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.220.1978.9576.990.130.10
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.290.1942.1146.00-0.05-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.1822.2227.33-0.12-0.08
Chicago St.WAC0.150.180.003.07-0.15-0.17
FIUCUSA0.150.1835.2935.54-0.04-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.230.1868.4263.650.080.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.1842.1143.51-0.01-0.02
UTSACUSA0.080.1841.1839.65-0.01-0.04
MississippiSEC0.220.1852.6345.860.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.220.1645.0047.07-0.02-0.01
NevadaMWC0.230.1585.7182.090.170.10
IUPUIHorz0.220.1527.7829.83-0.10-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.1552.6355.290.010.02
Murray St.OVC0.220.1570.5975.950.090.08
CharlotteCUSA0.220.1523.5325.64-0.12-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1572.2274.710.060.07
UABCUSA0.150.1561.1164.130.030.04
UNLVMWC0.160.1373.6865.260.080.04
New MexicoMWC0.160.1345.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.070.1345.0045.49-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1345.0041.33-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1358.8262.820.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.090.1311.7612.81-0.07-0.09
CanisiusMAAC0.230.1361.9063.140.060.03
SamfordSC0.150.1227.7832.66-0.06-0.04
TulsaAmer0.290.1255.0053.320.030.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.150.1241.1839.16-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.220.1289.4785.210.170.09
AkronMAC0.000.1247.0644.910.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1262.5058.690.040.02
DelawareCAA0.000.1247.3743.020.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.140.1230.0030.99-0.06-0.05
PurdueB100.150.1290.4888.370.120.09
RiceCUSA0.150.1211.1117.68-0.12-0.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.1236.8432.76-0.02-0.04
ToledoMAC0.080.1266.6767.700.030.04
UTEPCUSA0.080.1233.3334.10-0.03-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.1218.7536.82-0.14-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.230.1246.6746.97-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1261.1151.910.030.00
DaytonA100.310.1247.3750.94-0.020.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.1266.6765.370.020.04
IowaB100.140.1247.6244.02-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.140.1263.6457.630.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1225.0028.01-0.07-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1244.4450.31-0.020.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1272.2272.980.060.05
Fresno St.MWC0.160.0966.6763.420.050.03
UC RiversideBW0.160.0917.6523.86-0.10-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.150.0960.0062.030.030.02
SMUAmer0.150.0970.0070.570.060.04
VillanovaBE0.150.0994.7490.310.130.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.0921.0523.51-0.08-0.05
ColoradoP120.160.0960.0053.720.030.01
WyomingMWC0.070.0961.1156.830.020.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0929.4133.93-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.220.0950.0046.300.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.150.0927.7831.11-0.06-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.150.0944.4446.00-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0972.2274.930.030.05
James MadisonCAA0.150.0925.0028.24-0.07-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.080.0947.0641.41-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.150.0955.0050.330.010.00
TowsonCAA0.150.0963.1665.970.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.150.0964.7159.990.040.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0973.6871.560.030.04
HofstraCAA0.150.0957.8959.490.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0941.1838.47-0.03-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0952.9452.230.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0938.8943.43-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0978.9569.790.040.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.0915.7920.91-0.10-0.05
WinthropBSth0.070.0950.0059.450.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0612.5025.45-0.06-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0620.0023.34-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.070.0621.0525.97-0.04-0.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0661.1147.220.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.080.0680.0075.060.050.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0665.0056.340.020.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0666.6773.210.020.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0661.9065.160.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0685.7180.080.060.04
BelmontOVC0.140.0671.4374.660.060.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0610.0019.63-0.12-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.150.0680.9576.240.090.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.0625.0031.45-0.07-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.640.020.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.0657.8966.260.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.060.0010.67-0.07-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0643.7554.11-0.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.070.0663.1663.220.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0633.3332.94-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0652.9455.030.000.01
UMKCWAC0.070.0621.0524.75-0.04-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.140.0672.2258.920.060.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0666.6763.200.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0670.0065.250.030.02
NebraskaB100.080.0666.6759.820.030.01
OklahomaB120.150.0677.7867.910.090.02
South FloridaAmer0.150.0635.0026.12-0.04-0.03
DuquesneA100.000.0670.0058.090.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.070.0620.0041.73-0.04-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0647.3744.270.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0054.890.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0622.2225.250.00-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0650.0050.860.000.00
Michigan St.B100.070.0685.0083.200.050.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0655.5656.740.000.01
Notre DameACC0.150.0663.1661.020.040.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0680.9576.520.000.03
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0630.0032.52-0.03-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0647.3746.920.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.380.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.070.0627.7840.97-0.03-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0675.0077.850.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.1140.46-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0656.2557.400.000.01
TempleAmer0.150.0652.6351.740.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0668.4258.980.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0668.4264.200.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0666.6755.940.020.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0352.9452.650.010.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0330.0036.50-0.03-0.01
ArmyPat0.090.0361.1160.440.020.01
DenverSum0.090.0333.3336.48-0.03-0.01
PacificWCC0.090.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.090.0357.8950.210.010.00
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0310.5316.75-0.06-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.460.000.00
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0350.0053.260.000.00
ClemsonACC0.080.0384.2173.240.060.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.90-0.07-0.02
FurmanSC0.070.0366.6768.540.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0368.4254.070.030.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0360.0064.110.020.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.26-0.03-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0342.1144.96-0.01-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0321.0539.48-0.05-0.01
RadfordBSth0.070.0357.8958.850.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0342.1146.09-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0363.1657.540.020.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0368.7567.600.030.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0345.0045.03-0.01-0.00
BucknellPat0.080.0361.9068.020.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0338.8944.08-0.02-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.070.0352.6351.690.000.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.29-0.06-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0376.1970.740.040.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0350.0051.380.000.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
OregonP120.080.0365.0063.850.020.01
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.760.020.00
RichmondA100.070.0331.5834.36-0.03-0.01
RutgersB100.000.0355.0046.690.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.070.0375.0067.890.040.01
Stony BrookAE0.080.0336.8445.21-0.02-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.070.0357.8953.190.010.00
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.700.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.070.0333.3333.23-0.02-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0338.8940.78-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0373.6867.970.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.170.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.570.00-0.01