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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:250.7
Current RPI:274
Expected SOS:124
Current SOS:236
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:286
Expected OOC SOS:255



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13131.80.06%
15-14148.60.28%
14-15168.71.24%
13-16187.44.16%
12-17207.88.67%
11-18226.115.73%
10-19244.920.14%
9-20262.420.34%
8-21278.216.32%
7-22291.28.63%
6-23302.13.37%
5-24310.70.91%
4-25316.10.14%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14IUPUI (293.7)SumA66-79W100%0.0
11-18Saint Louis (268.1)A10H56-69L0%0.0
11-22Brown (247.7)IvyH78-66W100%0.0
11-24Austin Peay (300.0)OVCH61-57W100%0.0
11-27Illinois (48.3)B10N62-88L0%0.0
11-28Memphis (85.8)AmerN72-62L0%0.0
12-3Butler (25.7)BEH54-77L0%0.0
12-6Ball St. (229.1)MACA70-63L0%0.0
12-13Iona (81.7)MAACA91-84L0%0.0
12-20Eastern Illinois (265.9)OVCH0-065%4.4
12-28UMKC (269.1)WACH0-060%3.1
12-31Illinois St. (67.4)MVCA0-09%-16.0
1-4Evansville (79.8)MVCH0-026%-7.5
1-7Missouri St. (193.2)MVCH0-053%0.9
1-10Southern Illinois (204.3)MVCA0-023%-8.7
1-14Illinois St. (67.4)MVCH0-027%-7.2
1-17Drake (284.6)MVCA0-046%-1.2
1-21Northern Iowa (36.0)MVCA0-05%-19.3
1-24Loyola Chicago (117.5)MVCH0-036%-4.1
1-27Evansville (79.8)MVCA0-08%-16.3
1-31Bradley (270.9)MVCH0-065%4.4
2-3Northern Iowa (36.0)MVCH0-018%-10.6
2-7Loyola Chicago (117.5)MVCA0-014%-12.9
2-11Wichita St. (17.6)MVCA0-02%-23.8
2-14Drake (284.6)MVCH0-074%7.6
2-18Missouri St. (193.2)MVCA0-025%-7.9
2-21Southern Illinois (204.3)MVCH0-050%0.1
2-25Wichita St. (17.6)MVCH0-010%-15.1
2-28Bradley (270.9)MVCA0-036%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC27.6926.4130.2329.25-10.95-10.96
Southern IllinoisMVC0.594.4860.0048.670.12-0.12
BradleyMVC0.594.4733.3330.71-0.20-1.72
Wichita St.MVC0.594.4687.5084.510.443.08
DrakeMVC0.284.4420.0018.67-0.17-2.78
EvansvilleMVC0.284.4475.0069.290.141.71
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4437.5038.52-0.00-1.02
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4290.0077.400.002.42
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4166.6763.630.001.20
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4071.4358.370.000.74
Saint LouisA105.561.9055.5631.740.62-0.70
Austin PeayOVC6.091.9025.0032.11-3.04-0.68
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.401.8833.3339.27-0.13-0.40
IUPUISum5.951.8722.2227.09-3.31-0.86
MemphisAmer5.561.8550.0058.720.000.32
Ball St.MAC5.831.7816.6734.61-3.89-0.55
IllinoisB106.141.7870.0064.822.460.53
BrownIvy6.121.7844.4435.06-0.68-0.53
ButlerBE5.561.7277.7871.553.090.74
IonaMAAC5.561.7262.5071.461.390.74
UMKCWAC0.001.7222.2242.24-0.00-0.27
Murray St.OVC0.000.3655.5661.640.000.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2444.4447.39-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.2162.5066.710.000.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.280.210.0024.33-0.28-0.11
Oral RobertsSum0.000.2144.4444.76-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1871.4361.390.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1860.0056.680.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1818.1821.69-0.00-0.10
Seton HallBE0.000.1888.8963.530.000.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.180.0016.94-0.00-0.12
DePaulBE0.000.1766.6738.970.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.1770.0071.520.000.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.280.1757.1454.700.040.02
NorthwesternB100.560.1760.0040.460.11-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.1560.0062.430.000.04
George MasonA100.000.1425.0025.95-0.00-0.07
Texas TechB120.000.1388.8955.730.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1210.0041.11-0.00-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1236.3664.92-0.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1271.4363.540.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1275.0067.080.000.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1285.7170.330.000.05
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1262.5055.120.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1230.0028.35-0.00-0.05
Michigan St.B100.000.1272.7373.120.000.06
TulaneAmer0.000.1287.5054.920.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.1275.0078.710.000.07
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0012.02-0.00-0.09
IPFWSum0.000.1257.1456.730.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0032.64-0.00-0.04
YaleIvy0.000.1270.0064.820.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.620.1266.6777.710.210.06
DenverSum0.000.1150.0053.980.000.01
RichmondA100.000.1150.0057.040.000.02
UtahP120.400.0977.7879.670.220.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0950.0033.280.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0950.0049.770.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.280.0942.8655.67-0.040.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0942.8638.50-0.00-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0955.5638.460.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0950.0037.520.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.400.0980.0069.840.240.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0988.8964.130.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0960.0037.340.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0945.4544.47-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.0944.4470.22-0.030.04
North FloridaASun0.000.0944.4456.92-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.280.090.0023.23-0.28-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.280.0925.0028.71-0.14-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.280.0937.5041.33-0.07-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0977.7869.420.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.0972.7351.600.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.250.090.0014.70-0.25-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0944.4455.33-0.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0962.5073.580.000.04
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0950.0061.650.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.280.0972.7352.880.130.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.280.0936.3647.27-0.08-0.00
IowaB100.000.0972.7362.590.000.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0937.5031.79-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.280.0872.7363.690.130.02
XavierBE0.280.0880.0071.020.170.04
GeorgetownBE0.280.0866.6759.320.090.02
VillanovaBE0.250.08100.0082.310.250.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.82-0.00-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6755.660.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0625.0023.97-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.11-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0685.7161.530.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0642.8637.04-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.19-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0077.970.000.03
LipscombASun0.310.0625.0042.50-0.15-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.520.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0640.0029.07-0.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.310.0633.3331.37-0.10-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.310.0637.5048.87-0.08-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3363.36-0.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0611.1129.64-0.00-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0662.5065.190.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.590.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0644.4447.44-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0630.0029.48-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3644.37-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0688.8981.120.000.04
PennIvy0.000.0637.5032.89-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.960.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.77-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.75-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0644.4449.01-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0637.5046.46-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.06100.0066.280.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3338.24-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.91-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.760.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0053.110.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0633.3340.60-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0628.5742.24-0.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0655.5653.800.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.280.0633.3334.56-0.09-0.02
AmericanPat0.530.0660.0065.060.110.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.65-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.590.060.0039.62-0.59-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.310.0660.0064.580.060.02
DaytonA100.000.0677.7869.890.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.25-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0037.19-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0038.50-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.480.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0620.0039.57-0.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.100.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0660.0055.530.000.01
BaylorB120.560.0690.0073.960.450.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0657.1456.210.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.59-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0644.4439.99-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.780.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.470.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.0636.3633.75-0.08-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0622.2237.72-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.78-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0655.5647.640.00-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.690.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.310.0644.4456.70-0.030.01
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6743.830.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2931.11-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0637.5045.89-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.310.0645.4552.00-0.030.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0637.5051.47-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.340.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.0687.5064.520.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.040.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0034.38-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.780.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.02-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.340.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.400.030.008.81-0.40-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.400.0370.0060.810.160.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0026.68-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6752.510.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0370.0072.770.000.01
TroySB0.310.0333.3340.58-0.10-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.310.0355.5648.830.03-0.00
BryantNEC0.280.0328.5747.24-0.12-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0322.2231.12-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.280.0357.1452.640.040.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0375.0074.350.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0357.1464.510.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0350.0058.660.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.600.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.040.000.02
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.28-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6766.690.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.280.0362.5071.700.070.01
HowardMEAC0.280.0330.0044.01-0.11-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.770.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.280.0350.0039.320.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0375.0058.890.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.200.00-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.030.0037.67-0.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0064.990.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.600.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0350.0059.880.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.310.0377.7871.830.170.01
ChattanoogaSC0.280.0344.4451.18-0.030.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.310.0340.0046.88-0.06-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0325.0037.61-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.250.0360.0061.810.050.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0390.0091.070.000.02
HamptonMEAC0.250.0340.0050.16-0.050.00
Loyola MDPat0.280.0333.3327.49-0.09-0.01
MaineAE0.280.0311.1121.17-0.22-0.02
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.700.000.01
Miami FLACC0.250.0390.0075.760.200.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.890.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.280.0370.0071.470.110.01
North TexasCUSA0.310.0342.8636.42-0.04-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.620.000.02
OklahomaB120.280.0377.7867.330.150.01
Oklahoma St.B120.310.0388.8963.230.240.01
OregonP120.250.0366.6759.200.080.01
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9154.060.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0034.930.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0350.0048.630.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0053.790.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.280.0350.0046.160.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.310.0350.0038.030.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.430.000.02
WoffordSC0.310.0377.7876.160.170.01