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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:234.0
Current RPI:234
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:139
Current Record:10-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:5-14
Expected Conf Record:5-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-6
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:123



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20234.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA80-78L0%0.0
11-15Ball St. (169.0)MACA74-80W100%0.0
11-24Iowa St. (21.0)B12N73-71L0%0.0
11-25Stanford (100.0)P12N65-62L0%0.0
11-27Quinnipiac (272.0)MAACN80-77L0%0.0
11-30Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH63-52W100%0.0
12-3Utah St. (181.0)MWCA61-62W100%0.0
12-7Butler (15.0)BEH72-71W100%0.0
12-11Western Kentucky (226.0)CUSAH59-77L0%0.0
12-17Valparaiso (71.0)HorzA89-71L0%0.0
12-21Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH88-85W100%0.0
12-28Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH72-80L0%0.0
12-31Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA81-75L0%0.0
1-4Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA80-74L0%0.0
1-7Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH58-77L0%0.0
1-11Drake (314.0)MVCA87-70L0%0.0
1-14Bradley (220.0)MVCH81-71W100%0.0
1-18Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH68-73L0%0.0
1-21Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA84-58L0%0.0
1-25Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA71-66L0%0.0
1-28Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH66-81L0%0.0
2-1Evansville (188.0)MVCH85-84W100%0.0
2-4Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA65-60L0%0.0
2-8Bradley (220.0)MVCA54-56W100%0.0
2-11Drake (314.0)MVCH84-60W100%0.0
2-15Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA64-46L0%0.0
2-19Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH68-74L0%0.0
2-22Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH69-59W100%0.0
2-25Evansville (188.0)MVCA65-63L0%0.0
3-2Evansville (188.0)MVCN83-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC26.4626.4631.3431.34-9.87-9.87
EvansvilleMVC5.915.9142.8642.86-0.84-0.84
Illinois St.MVC4.434.4380.0080.002.662.66
BradleyMVC4.414.4140.0040.00-0.88-0.88
Wichita St.MVC4.414.4187.1087.103.273.27
Missouri St.MVC4.384.3846.6746.67-0.29-0.29
Southern IllinoisMVC4.364.3646.6746.67-0.29-0.29
DrakeMVC4.324.3218.5218.52-2.72-2.72
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.294.2950.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC4.294.2944.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Northern IllinoisMAC3.393.3940.7440.74-0.63-0.63
Ball St.MAC1.861.8664.5264.520.540.54
ValparaisoHorz1.741.7473.3373.330.810.81
Iowa St.B121.721.7268.7568.750.650.65
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.721.7246.1546.15-0.13-0.13
ButlerBE1.671.6776.6776.670.890.89
QuinnipiacMAAC1.671.6730.0030.00-0.67-0.67
StanfordP121.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
Utah St.MWC1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Western KentuckyCUSA1.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
ToledoMAC0.300.3050.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.250.2545.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.220.2241.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.220.2241.9441.94-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.220.2228.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
TCUB120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Central MichiganMAC0.170.1746.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1761.2961.290.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Saint LouisA100.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
Arizona St.P120.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.140.1462.0762.070.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1429.4129.41-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.140.1482.3582.350.090.09
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
UNLVMWC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.110.1164.7164.710.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
AkronMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
BuffaloMAC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
MinnesotaB100.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
OhioMAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Seton HallBE0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
IdahoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
UtahP120.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
Texas TechB120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
IUPUISum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0596.9796.970.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.04-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01