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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:146.9
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:127
Current SOS:127
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:163
Expected OOC SOS:95



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1194.90.82%
17-12112.27.33%
16-13130.425.45%
15-14148.837.71%
14-15165.822.82%
13-16182.65.68%
12-17199.40.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13IUPUI (179.9)SumH70-72L0%0.0
11-16Wyoming (179.4)MWCH70-55W100%0.0
11-20Norfolk St. (212.3)MEACN61-70W100%0.0
11-22Tulsa (67.0)AmerN59-67L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (74.5)CAAN66-67W100%0.0
12-1Eastern Illinois (255.4)OVCA68-62L0%0.0
12-5Butler (53.8)BEA85-71L0%0.0
12-9Valparaiso (36.3)HorzH63-69L0%0.0
12-13Western Kentucky (173.5)CUSAA75-62L0%0.0
12-19Saint Louis (200.1)A10A68-76W100%0.0
12-22Ball St. (155.9)MACH73-61W100%0.0
12-30Evansville (74.1)MVCA70-62L0%0.0
1-2Loyola Chicago (239.2)MVCH73-58W100%0.0
1-6Drake (305.3)MVCA69-79W100%0.0
1-9Illinois St. (129.8)MVCH77-65W100%0.0
1-13Northern Iowa (114.8)MVCH74-60W100%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (37.4)MVCA82-62L0%0.0
1-20Southern Illinois (139.9)MVCA79-66L0%0.0
1-24Evansville (74.1)MVCH82-65W100%0.0
1-27Missouri St. (234.9)MVCH68-59W100%0.0
1-30Loyola Chicago (239.2)MVCA104-96L0%0.0
2-2Drake (305.3)MVCH63-56W100%0.0
2-6Bradley (305.4)MVCA63-58L0%0.0
2-10Southern Illinois (139.9)MVCH0-062%3.2
2-13Missouri St. (234.9)MVCA0-060%2.9
2-17Illinois St. (129.8)MVCA0-043%-2.0
2-21Wichita St. (37.4)MVCH0-021%-8.7
2-24Northern Iowa (114.8)MVCA0-026%-7.0
2-27Bradley (305.4)MVCH0-095%17.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC26.3626.3852.7552.381.451.26
Missouri St.MVC3.054.5040.9139.07-0.55-0.98
Wichita St.MVC2.964.4371.4375.351.272.25
Southern IllinoisMVC2.924.4270.8370.601.221.82
EvansvilleMVC4.964.4177.2778.112.702.48
BradleyMVC2.884.418.7010.01-2.38-3.53
DrakeMVC4.954.4123.8125.41-2.59-2.17
Illinois St.MVC2.924.3856.5252.530.380.22
Northern IowaMVC2.874.3856.5256.360.370.56
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.904.3842.8642.07-0.70-0.69
Ball St.MAC2.361.8766.6761.280.790.42
TulsaAmer2.271.8563.6460.120.620.37
Saint LouisA102.271.8438.1034.62-0.54-0.57
IUPUISum2.321.8437.5037.72-0.58-0.45
ButlerBE2.261.8168.1866.110.820.58
ValparaisoHorz2.271.8180.9582.431.411.18
Western KentuckyCUSA2.271.7842.8644.38-0.32-0.20
Norfolk St.MEAC2.261.7842.8651.03-0.320.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.221.7538.1041.36-0.53-0.30
HofstraCAA2.171.7268.1866.510.790.57
WyomingMWC2.171.7245.4544.02-0.20-0.21
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2413.6415.80-0.17-0.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.330.245.007.23-0.30-0.20
Murray St.OVC0.230.2345.4549.70-0.02-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.190.2139.1341.12-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.180.2033.3332.99-0.06-0.07
Western IllinoisSum0.280.1827.7829.14-0.12-0.08
NevadaMWC0.240.1855.0054.530.020.02
BelmontOVC0.290.1866.6766.540.100.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1817.3920.66-0.12-0.10
Seton HallBE0.090.1873.9169.830.050.07
ToledoMAC0.240.1859.0960.070.040.04
DePaulBE0.240.1534.7834.45-0.07-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.190.1560.8763.000.040.04
CreightonBE0.190.1562.5059.780.050.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.240.1438.8945.66-0.05-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.150.1250.0051.170.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1233.3335.09-0.05-0.04
IowaB100.140.1282.6180.580.090.07
UNLVMWC0.100.1250.0055.200.000.01
HoustonAmer0.190.1269.5766.510.070.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1256.5256.310.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1221.7422.74-0.08-0.06
Morehead St.OVC0.140.1250.0052.350.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.090.1263.6462.530.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.090.1252.3850.410.000.00
DelawareCAA0.090.1221.7423.32-0.05-0.06
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1261.9059.660.030.02
San Diego St.MWC0.090.1272.7372.030.040.05
TowsonCAA0.090.1265.2259.750.030.02
TulaneAmer0.190.1233.3332.34-0.06-0.04
UABCUSA0.090.1282.6179.420.060.07
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1270.8370.840.060.05
OhioMAC0.150.1261.9059.430.030.02
Air ForceMWC0.140.1245.4538.47-0.01-0.03
OaklandHorz0.090.1268.0067.970.030.04
UTEPCUSA0.140.1252.1751.940.010.00
George MasonA100.090.1134.7834.15-0.03-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.090.1147.3749.97-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.190.1175.0070.940.090.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1177.2776.860.070.06
TCUB120.090.1143.4837.22-0.01-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0947.8350.15-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.100.0954.5556.000.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.0959.0953.030.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.0952.0050.250.010.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0966.6762.620.030.02
DetroitHorz0.100.0947.6245.85-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0956.5262.780.010.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0945.0046.77-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.140.0913.6413.62-0.10-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.0952.3847.040.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0947.8344.37-0.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.140.0956.5257.280.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.140.0986.3679.150.100.05
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0950.0051.170.000.00
DenverSum0.130.0954.1751.800.010.00
DuquesneA100.150.0963.6456.430.040.01
IPFWSum0.090.0970.8368.570.040.03
St. BonaventureA100.100.0971.4368.970.040.03
UC IrvineBW0.140.0972.7371.620.060.04
XavierBE0.100.0991.3084.380.080.06
MarquetteBE0.090.0962.5056.260.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.090.0931.8230.48-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0927.7834.50-0.04-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0954.5554.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0982.6178.890.030.05
TempleAmer0.090.0963.6459.840.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0921.0523.58-0.05-0.05
Kent St.MAC0.090.0863.6459.440.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0637.5040.52-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.0625.0033.21-0.05-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0623.8126.56-0.03-0.03
USCP120.050.0678.2673.060.030.03
UtahP120.050.0669.5767.480.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0631.5831.80-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0634.7840.92-0.02-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.940.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.0022.36-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0613.6418.14-0.07-0.04
ElonCAA0.090.0652.1750.420.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0622.7327.19-0.05-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0657.1459.470.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0638.1040.73-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.090.0670.8369.500.040.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.420.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0626.0927.82-0.02-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0640.9143.71-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0620.0026.74-0.00-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0645.8346.66-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0669.5765.850.040.02
San DiegoWCC0.090.0631.8229.14-0.03-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0625.0022.76-0.02-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.100.0680.9582.700.060.04
UMKCWAC0.090.0628.5732.71-0.04-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0665.2266.160.030.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0676.1973.400.020.03
Weber St.BSky0.090.0665.0069.270.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.840.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.100.064.357.73-0.09-0.05
IonaMAAC0.100.0660.8760.730.020.01
La SalleA100.050.0620.0020.45-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.100.0682.6177.740.060.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0610.0013.13-0.08-0.04
Oregon St.P120.100.0661.9056.420.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.100.0656.5256.610.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0650.0053.300.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0630.0035.77-0.04-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0679.1778.330.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.0652.1755.930.000.01
BYUWCC0.050.0666.6769.500.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0673.9172.480.020.03
DaytonA100.050.0686.3682.380.040.04
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0643.4842.01-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0636.8441.44-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0654.1752.340.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0684.2181.670.030.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0652.6350.220.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.060.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0673.9171.550.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0687.5083.690.030.04
MemphisAmer0.040.0660.8760.770.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0665.2259.020.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0616.6720.13-0.06-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0682.6178.690.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0663.6462.140.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0663.1658.790.000.01
PurdueB100.090.0679.1776.550.050.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0630.4331.18-0.04-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0690.9186.130.040.04
South DakotaSum0.040.0641.6741.24-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0615.0015.35-0.06-0.04
St. John'sBE0.090.0626.0923.72-0.05-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0670.5975.550.020.03
UCFAmer0.050.0652.3845.700.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.540.020.02
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.900.020.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.9686.370.030.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0682.6178.050.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0636.3632.00-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0633.3335.48-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.040.0640.0038.50-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0645.0049.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.020.030.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0325.0024.36-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0368.1866.670.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0326.0929.20-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.14-0.02-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0366.6767.690.020.01
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.880.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.31-0.01-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.5213.52-0.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.890.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.710.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0330.4335.11-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0365.2268.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.210.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0372.2274.710.020.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0328.5729.72-0.02-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0334.7837.07-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0335.0035.98-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5831.98-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.880.040.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.880.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.290.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.420.030.01
Georgia St.SB0.040.0357.8956.100.010.00
HartfordAE0.050.0326.0926.50-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.470.010.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0321.7423.40-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0322.7324.97-0.03-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.36-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0381.8276.740.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0365.2267.140.020.01
South AlabamaSB0.040.0333.3334.19-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0320.0019.66-0.00-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.37-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0333.3331.31-0.02-0.01
VMISC0.050.0315.7917.42-0.03-0.02