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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:71.0
Current RPI:71
Expected SOS:129
Current SOS:129
Current Record:21-10
Expected Record:21-10
Current Conf Record:14-7
Expected Conf Record:14-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:206



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-1071.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Ball St. (309.0)MACH82-73W100%0.0
11-14Belmont (57.0)OVCA96-95L0%0.0
11-17Notre Dame (136.0)ACCA70-83W100%0.0
11-27Tulsa (73.0)CUSAN62-63L0%0.0
11-30Pepperdine (159.0)WCCN70-73W100%0.0
12-7Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA48-66W100%0.0
12-14UMKC (248.0)WACA63-74W100%0.0
12-18Saint Louis (27.0)A10A83-66L0%0.0
12-21IUPUI (322.0)SumH81-61W100%0.0
12-28Belmont (57.0)OVCH85-73W100%0.0
1-1Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH70-58W100%0.0
1-4Evansville (214.0)MVCA62-81W100%0.0
1-8Drake (174.0)MVCA73-77W100%0.0
1-11Bradley (265.0)MVCH62-59W100%0.0
1-15Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH70-55W100%0.0
1-18Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA68-48L0%0.0
1-22Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA61-65W100%0.0
1-25Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH76-62W100%0.0
1-29Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA79-60L0%0.0
2-1Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA81-87W100%0.0
2-5Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH58-65L0%0.0
2-9Drake (174.0)MVCH60-56W100%0.0
2-12Bradley (265.0)MVCA62-68W100%0.0
2-15Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH60-57W100%0.0
2-19Evansville (214.0)MVCH59-54W100%0.0
2-22Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA77-66L0%0.0
2-26Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA77-59L0%0.0
3-1Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH69-71L0%0.0
3-7Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCN75-62W100%0.0
3-8Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCN62-59W100%0.0
3-9Wichita St. (4.0)MVCN83-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC26.6326.6370.6370.6310.9910.99
Wichita St.MVC5.935.93100.00100.005.935.93
Southern IllinoisMVC5.885.8841.3841.38-1.01-1.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.825.8232.1432.14-2.08-2.08
EvansvilleMVC4.364.3641.3841.38-0.75-0.75
Missouri St.MVC4.364.3662.0762.071.051.05
BradleyMVC4.324.3240.0040.00-0.86-0.86
DrakeMVC4.284.2850.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC4.284.2850.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC4.264.2650.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC3.253.2573.3373.331.521.52
IUPUISum1.771.7710.7110.71-1.39-1.39
Saint LouisA101.761.7680.0080.001.061.06
TulsaCUSA1.741.7462.5062.500.430.43
Ball St.MAC1.691.6911.1111.11-1.31-1.31
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Notre DameACC1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
PepperdineWCC1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.330.3353.3353.330.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.290.2931.0331.03-0.11-0.11
Chicago St.WAC0.260.2636.6736.67-0.07-0.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.260.2613.7913.79-0.19-0.19
Murray St.OVC0.240.2459.2659.260.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
VCUA100.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Miami OHMAC0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Austin PeayOVC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.180.1858.0658.060.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Oral RobertsSlnd0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
UICHorz0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
VirginiaACC0.160.1682.3582.350.100.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Northern IllinoisMAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
DenverSum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TulaneCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
NorthwesternB100.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
MarylandACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1083.8783.870.070.07
LipscombASun0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
IdahoWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
AkronMAC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01