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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:172.0
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:121
Current SOS:121
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:159
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17172.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13IUPUI (189.0)SumH70-72L0%0.0
11-16Wyoming (187.0)MWCH70-55W100%0.0
11-20Norfolk St. (225.0)MEACN61-70W100%0.0
11-22Tulsa (58.0)AmerN59-67L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (54.0)CAAN66-67W100%0.0
12-1Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA68-62L0%0.0
12-5Butler (57.0)BEA85-71L0%0.0
12-9Valparaiso (49.0)HorzH63-69L0%0.0
12-13Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAA75-62L0%0.0
12-19Saint Louis (206.0)A10A68-76W100%0.0
12-22Ball St. (179.0)MACH73-61W100%0.0
12-30Evansville (93.0)MVCA70-62L0%0.0
1-2Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH73-58W100%0.0
1-6Drake (325.0)MVCA69-79W100%0.0
1-9Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH77-65W100%0.0
1-13Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH74-60W100%0.0
1-17Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA82-62L0%0.0
1-20Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA79-66L0%0.0
1-24Evansville (93.0)MVCH82-65W100%0.0
1-27Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH68-59W100%0.0
1-30Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA104-96L0%0.0
2-2Drake (325.0)MVCH63-56W100%0.0
2-6Bradley (306.0)MVCA63-58L0%0.0
2-10Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH78-85L0%0.0
2-13Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA89-85L0%0.0
2-17Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA78-50L0%0.0
2-21Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH51-84L0%0.0
2-24Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA66-44L0%0.0
2-27Bradley (306.0)MVCH77-58W100%0.0
3-4Illinois St. (114.0)MVCN57-65W100%0.0
3-5Evansville (93.0)MVCN68-42L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC26.4626.4644.0944.09-3.13-3.13
EvansvilleMVC5.845.8473.3373.332.732.73
Illinois St.MVC5.715.7157.1457.140.820.82
Missouri St.MVC4.384.3837.9337.93-1.06-1.06
Northern IowaMVC4.334.3364.5264.521.261.26
Wichita St.MVC4.304.3072.4172.411.931.93
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.254.2544.8344.83-0.44-0.44
BradleyMVC4.224.2210.3410.34-3.35-3.35
Southern IllinoisMVC4.224.2266.6766.671.411.41
DrakeMVC4.224.2221.4321.43-2.41-2.41
Ball St.MAC1.751.7560.0060.000.350.35
IUPUISum1.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
TulsaAmer1.721.7263.3363.330.460.46
Saint LouisA101.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
ButlerBE1.691.6966.6766.670.560.56
ValparaisoHorz1.691.6979.3179.310.990.99
Norfolk St.MEAC1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA1.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.641.6437.0437.04-0.42-0.42
HofstraCAA1.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
WyomingMWC1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Murray St.OVC0.290.2951.7251.720.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.240.2410.7110.71-0.19-0.19
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2311.1111.11-0.18-0.18
North TexasCUSA0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1629.1729.17-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.1621.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Seton HallBE0.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
ToledoMAC0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
UABCUSA0.150.1580.6580.650.090.09
ProvidenceBE0.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
DePaulBE0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
CreightonBE0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1377.4277.420.070.07
TCUB120.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
George MasonA100.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.1164.2964.290.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
IowaB100.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
TulaneAmer0.110.1135.2935.29-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.100.1064.5264.520.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
TowsonCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1062.8662.860.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
XavierBE0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
RichmondA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0722.8622.86-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
La SalleA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
PortlandWCC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
Washington St.P120.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0324.2424.24-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00