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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:190.0
Current RPI:190
Expected SOS:139
Current SOS:139
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:308
Expected OOC SOS:268



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16190.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14IUPUI (260.0)SumA66-79W100%0.0
11-18Saint Louis (272.0)A10H56-69L0%0.0
11-22Brown (248.0)IvyH78-66W100%0.0
11-24Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH61-57W100%0.0
11-27Illinois (73.0)B10N62-88L0%0.0
11-28Memphis (83.0)AmerN72-62L0%0.0
12-3Butler (31.0)BEH54-77L0%0.0
12-6Ball St. (284.0)MACA70-63L0%0.0
12-13Iona (51.0)MAACA91-84L0%0.0
12-20Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH56-60L0%0.0
12-28UMKC (295.0)WACH70-73L0%0.0
12-31Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA61-63W100%0.0
1-4Evansville (118.0)MVCH79-75W100%0.0
1-7Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH71-56W100%0.0
1-10Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA56-59W100%0.0
1-14Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH71-70W100%0.0
1-17Drake (269.0)MVCA84-78L0%0.0
1-21Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA66-60L0%0.0
1-24Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH72-61W100%0.0
1-27Evansville (118.0)MVCA89-78L0%0.0
1-31Bradley (288.0)MVCH64-58W100%0.0
2-3Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH51-61L0%0.0
2-7Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA65-79W100%0.0
2-11Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA74-57L0%0.0
2-14Drake (269.0)MVCH75-54W100%0.0
2-18Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA60-56L0%0.0
2-21Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH78-58W100%0.0
2-25Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH53-63L0%0.0
2-28Bradley (288.0)MVCA52-60W100%0.0
3-6Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCN53-81L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC26.4126.4144.2944.29-3.02-3.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.915.9159.2659.261.091.09
Northern IowaMVC4.444.4490.3290.323.583.58
Southern IllinoisMVC4.424.4236.6736.67-1.18-1.18
Illinois St.MVC4.414.4166.6766.671.471.47
BradleyMVC4.414.4126.6726.67-2.06-2.06
Wichita St.MVC4.414.4186.2186.213.193.19
DrakeMVC4.334.3325.0025.00-2.16-2.16
EvansvilleMVC4.334.3360.7160.710.930.93
Missouri St.MVC4.324.3229.6329.63-1.76-1.76
Austin PeayOVC1.831.8322.2222.22-1.02-1.02
Saint LouisA101.821.8230.0030.00-0.73-0.73
Eastern IllinoisOVC1.811.8150.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
MemphisAmer1.771.7754.8454.840.170.17
IllinoisB101.731.7358.0658.060.280.28
BrownIvy1.721.7239.2939.29-0.37-0.37
Ball St.MAC1.721.7217.8617.86-1.11-1.11
ButlerBE1.671.6767.7467.740.590.59
IonaMAAC1.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
UMKCWAC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Murray St.OVC0.330.3383.3383.330.220.22
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.220.2238.4638.46-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.220.2253.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.190.1964.5264.520.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.190.1925.0025.00-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
TulsaAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
DePaulBE0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
Seton HallBE0.160.1651.6151.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.160.1674.2974.290.080.08
Bowling GreenMAC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
TulaneAmer0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1171.4371.430.050.05
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
IPFWSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
DenverSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
CreightonBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MichiganB100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
SienaMAAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0674.0774.070.030.03
PennIvy0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
Washington St.P120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
OregonP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02