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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Indiana St.

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:156.7
Current RPI:247
Expected SOS:108
Current SOS:241
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:93



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-747.00.01%
21-845.50.04%
20-955.10.14%
19-1069.10.58%
18-1183.02.42%
17-1298.25.05%
16-13113.49.26%
15-14129.715.54%
14-15146.918.36%
13-16165.617.90%
12-17185.914.04%
11-18204.49.51%
10-19222.44.94%
9-20239.01.53%
8-21258.60.52%
7-22282.30.14%
5-24291.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Indiana St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northern Illinois (209.4)MACA80-78L0%0.0
11-15Ball St. (212.5)MACA74-80W100%0.0
11-24Iowa St. (31.7)B12N73-71L0%0.0
11-25Stanford (54.1)P12N65-62L0%0.0
11-27Quinnipiac (268.6)MAACN80-77L0%0.0
11-30Northern Illinois (209.4)MACH63-52W100%0.0
12-3Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-038%-3.7
12-7Butler (14.7)BEH0-019%-10.4
12-11Western Kentucky (248.0)CUSAH0-086%13.0
12-17Valparaiso (74.9)HorzA0-033%-5.3
12-21Eastern Illinois (261.0)OVCH0-083%11.3
12-28Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-013%-13.6
12-31Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-031%-6.1
1-4Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-047%-0.8
1-7Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-042%-2.5
1-11Drake (306.7)MVCA0-074%7.6
1-14Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-085%12.5
1-18Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-050%0.1
1-21Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-05%-19.8
1-25Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-024%-8.7
1-28Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCH0-062%3.5
2-1Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-072%7.1
2-4Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-028%-7.0
2-8Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-070%6.3
2-11Drake (306.7)MVCH0-087%13.8
2-15Loyola Chicago (161.7)MVCA0-041%-2.7
2-19Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-067%5.4
2-22Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCH0-047%-0.8
2-25Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Indiana St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Indiana St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Indiana St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Indiana St.MVC29.8926.4635.7146.55-8.54-1.83
BradleyMVC0.004.4750.0029.760.00-1.81
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4375.0065.350.001.36
DrakeMVC0.004.430.0021.44-0.00-2.53
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4150.0046.960.00-0.27
Wichita St.MVC0.004.4171.4385.670.003.15
EvansvilleMVC0.004.4033.3340.62-0.00-0.83
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.4066.6754.850.000.43
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4040.0057.13-0.000.63
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4050.0066.070.001.41
Northern IllinoisMAC16.673.5140.0044.93-3.33-0.36
Ball St.MAC8.331.9360.0054.141.670.16
ValparaisoHorz0.691.8185.7174.680.500.89
Iowa St.B128.331.7966.6767.902.780.64
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.001.7850.0044.500.00-0.20
ButlerBE0.001.72100.0075.520.000.88
QuinnipiacMAAC8.331.720.0032.04-8.33-0.62
StanfordP128.331.7271.4357.643.570.26
Utah St.MWC0.001.7250.0053.240.000.11
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.7242.8634.85-0.00-0.52
ToledoMAC0.000.3042.8650.36-0.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.2442.8661.90-0.000.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2450.0038.430.00-0.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.190.2150.0050.290.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1975.0054.320.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1814.2937.52-0.00-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1866.6756.360.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1850.0055.850.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1816.6736.45-0.00-0.05
XavierBE0.000.18100.0074.800.000.09
TCUB120.000.18100.0059.480.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1833.3343.64-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.1880.0035.960.00-0.05
OklahomaB120.000.1883.3351.920.000.01
Saint LouisA100.690.1833.3326.75-0.23-0.08
LouisvilleACC0.000.1785.7175.950.000.09
Wright St.Horz0.000.1771.4355.750.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.1550.0051.820.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1550.0033.010.00-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1540.0041.65-0.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.520.1583.3361.490.350.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.150.0038.35-0.00-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.1571.4349.590.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.150.0017.30-0.00-0.10
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1250.0046.780.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.1260.0048.590.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.1257.1440.590.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.1260.0039.200.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1257.1436.050.00-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0058.980.000.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1275.0074.990.000.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1257.1447.320.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.1240.0050.91-0.000.00
George MasonA100.000.1257.1442.940.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1260.0070.140.000.05
MinnesotaB100.000.1285.7165.670.000.04
NevadaMWC0.000.1275.0070.470.000.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0032.39-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.120.0019.30-0.00-0.07
OhioMAC0.000.1280.0068.320.000.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1233.3333.15-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE1.220.1271.4354.520.520.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1285.7173.010.000.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1183.3356.560.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0928.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0960.0039.610.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0920.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.710.0916.6743.29-1.14-0.01
IdahoBSky1.190.0940.0050.88-0.240.00
AkronMAC0.000.0983.3369.840.000.04
IowaB100.000.0942.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.090.0024.77-0.00-0.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0950.0052.140.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0916.6733.69-0.00-0.03
USCP120.000.09100.0075.380.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.0950.0036.820.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0942.8646.78-0.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0985.7163.780.000.02
ArizonaP120.000.0985.7170.990.000.04
OregonP120.000.0971.4366.730.000.03
UtahP120.000.0975.0061.040.000.02
KansasB120.000.0985.7176.170.000.05
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.600.0912.5048.98-0.45-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0019.51-0.00-0.05
Fort WayneSum0.000.0666.6770.930.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW1.190.0633.3335.92-0.40-0.02
ElonCAA1.190.0683.3358.030.790.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0685.7180.010.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0657.1447.220.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.520.0620.0054.94-0.310.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0640.0061.37-0.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0650.0045.920.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0683.3363.610.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0671.4350.570.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0628.5723.76-0.00-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.170.000.03
Miami FLACC1.120.0671.4365.740.480.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.520.06100.0089.040.520.04
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.690.0666.6756.020.230.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0074.460.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3341.52-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.600.0685.7180.960.430.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0616.6730.27-0.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.690.060.0018.22-0.69-0.04
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0076.650.000.03
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0683.3362.080.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC1.290.06100.0091.061.290.05
Green BayHorz0.000.0633.3348.71-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0633.3338.19-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0642.8635.68-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0671.4363.090.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0671.4346.010.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.690.0671.4371.570.300.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0616.6727.03-0.00-0.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0047.990.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0660.0052.760.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0628.5750.51-0.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.77-0.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.690.060.0023.26-0.69-0.03
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0650.0036.240.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0657.1467.020.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
VermontAE0.690.0662.5071.630.170.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0083.120.000.04
West VirginiaB120.000.0683.3380.550.000.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8637.60-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0666.6751.090.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0683.3359.600.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0666.6765.810.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0383.3361.150.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0314.2928.66-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0314.2929.81-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0342.8650.32-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0340.0037.44-0.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0360.0058.950.000.01
HarvardIvy0.520.030.0043.04-0.52-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.0357.1469.300.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0083.550.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.000.0375.0067.660.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0314.2929.15-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.690.0342.8642.47-0.10-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0312.5022.55-0.00-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.0342.8647.69-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0325.0024.66-0.00-0.01
MaineAE0.000.0316.6725.61-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0333.3348.73-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6740.71-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0371.4370.330.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.600.030.0024.19-0.60-0.01
The CitadelSC0.600.0340.0027.05-0.12-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0320.0034.39-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0385.7169.010.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0325.0043.26-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01