Colorado St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	33.3
Current RPI:	23
Expected SOS:	4
Current SOS:	9
Current Record:	14-7
Expected Record:	17-11
Current Conf Record:	4-3
Expected Conf Record:	7-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	1.64%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC Record:	10-4
Expected OOC RPI:	23
Expected OOC SOS:	21

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
21-7	7.7	0.16%
20-8	11.3	1.92%
19-9	16.8	9.38%
18-10	23.7	23.65%
17-11	32.1	30.48%
16-12	42.2	23.60%
15-13	54.5	9.10%
14-14	68.7	1.70%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Montana (101.6)	BSky	H	64-58	W	100%	0.0
11-14	Southern Methodist (214.4)	CUSA	N	75-56	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Stanford (89.9)	P12	A	64-52	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Southern Mississippi (15.8)	CUSA	H	58-79	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	H	85-75	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Manhattan (115.3)	MAAC	H	91-86	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Colorado (75.2)	P12	H	65-64	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Northern Iowa (60.5)	MVC	A	83-77	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Duke (4.2)	ACC	A	87-64	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Texas Southern (244.5)	SWAC	H	85-61	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Northern Colorado (251.5)	BSky	A	78-92	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Texas El Paso (178.1)	CUSA	A	53-56	W	100%	0.0
12-29	Jacksonville St. (252.5)	OVC	N	79-56	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	79-75	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	H	95-89	W	100%	0.0
1-17	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	H	66-55	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	A	70-51	L	0%	0.0
1-25	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	A	85-52	L	0%	0.0
1-28	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	H	77-60	W	100%	0.0
2-1	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	A	82-63	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	H	67-49	W	100%	0.0
2-11	Texas Christian (123.7)	MWC	A	0-0		57%	1.9
2-15	Boise St. (176.5)	MWC	A	0-0		48%	-0.7
2-18	Wyoming (55.5)	MWC	H	0-0		51%	0.2
2-21	New Mexico (30.8)	MWC	H	0-0		29%	-6.1
2-25	San Diego St. (26.6)	MWC	A	0-0		28%	-6.3
2-29	Nevada Las Vegas (9.6)	MWC	H	0-0		29%	-6.0
3-3	Air Force (174.7)	MWC	A	0-0		61%	3.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colorado St.	MWC	26.15	26.32	68.35	61.37	9.60	5.98
Wyoming	MWC	2.89	4.43	75.00	70.43	1.44	1.81
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	2.78	4.37	81.82	81.16	1.77	2.72
Texas Christian	MWC	2.72	4.36	60.00	51.62	0.54	0.14
Boise St.	MWC	2.77	4.36	45.00	42.27	-0.28	-0.67
Air Force	MWC	2.77	4.35	50.00	44.04	0.00	-0.52
New Mexico	MWC	2.72	4.33	80.95	80.69	1.69	2.66
San Diego St.	MWC	2.72	4.33	90.00	81.30	2.18	2.71
Denver	SB	2.66	2.01	73.91	74.81	1.27	1.00
Colorado	P12	2.61	2.01	70.00	64.97	1.04	0.60
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.60	1.98	31.58	32.80	-0.96	-0.68
Texas El Paso	CUSA	2.55	1.97	45.45	44.80	-0.23	-0.20
Southern Methodist	CUSA	2.43	1.94	40.00	39.21	-0.49	-0.42
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	2.43	1.88	85.00	81.55	1.70	1.18
Montana	BSky	2.44	1.85	73.68	76.09	1.16	0.97
Stanford	P12	2.44	1.85	68.18	67.20	0.89	0.64
Texas Southern	SWAC	2.49	1.85	33.33	43.58	-0.83	-0.24
Northern Iowa	MVC	2.44	1.82	60.87	60.17	0.53	0.37
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.43	1.82	60.00	62.92	0.49	0.47
Duke	ACC	2.38	1.79	85.71	82.53	1.70	1.16
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.38	1.79	36.36	39.85	-0.65	-0.36
Manhattan	MAAC	2.38	1.79	70.83	71.37	0.99	0.76
Idaho St.	BSky	0.40	0.39	33.33	33.88	-0.13	-0.12
Southern California	P12	0.33	0.34	25.00	25.13	-0.16	-0.17
Fresno St.	WAC	0.38	0.28	39.13	44.52	-0.08	-0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.38	0.28	69.57	68.90	0.15	0.11
California	P12	0.27	0.28	75.00	74.61	0.13	0.14
Houston	CUSA	0.27	0.24	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.21	0.24	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.28	0.23	42.86	45.80	-0.04	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.28	0.22	17.39	24.41	-0.18	-0.11
Tulsa	CUSA	0.22	0.21	60.87	59.05	0.05	0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.20	45.00	41.76	-0.02	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.22	0.19	52.17	50.09	0.01	0.00
Utah	P12	0.17	0.19	18.18	15.01	-0.11	-0.13
Arizona St.	P12	0.22	0.19	30.43	31.43	-0.09	-0.07
Tulane	CUSA	0.22	0.18	61.90	58.59	0.05	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	80.00	76.84	0.10	0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.17	0.16	71.43	73.35	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.17	0.16	54.55	57.69	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.17	0.16	66.67	68.55	0.06	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.16	63.64	63.16	0.05	0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.22	0.16	45.00	46.13	-0.02	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.16	0.15	59.09	59.72	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.15	69.57	64.53	0.06	0.04
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.22	0.15	45.45	40.70	-0.02	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.16	0.15	82.61	80.42	0.10	0.09
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.18	0.13	40.91	44.03	-0.03	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.18	0.13	13.64	16.14	-0.13	-0.09
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.18	0.13	30.00	33.20	-0.07	-0.05
Chicago St.	GWC	0.12	0.13	4.76	9.95	-0.11	-0.11
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.13	20.00	19.96	-0.07	-0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.13	19.05	24.61	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.17	0.13	33.33	33.82	-0.06	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.17	0.13	42.86	43.45	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.17	0.12	42.86	39.66	-0.02	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.06	-0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.16	0.12	87.50	85.41	0.12	0.09
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.12	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.12	55.56	58.01	0.01	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.12	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.17	0.12	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.11	0.12	71.43	66.60	0.05	0.04
East Carolina	CUSA	0.22	0.12	44.44	41.71	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.17	0.12	69.57	71.51	0.07	0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.12	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.12	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.12	15.00	15.73	-0.08	-0.08
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.10	0.12	8.70	8.99	-0.08	-0.10
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.12	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.12	27.78	29.87	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.12	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.07
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.12	86.96	83.16	0.04	0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.10	47.62	51.08	-0.01	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.12	0.10	21.74	21.70	-0.07	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.09	33.33	41.31	-0.04	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.09	47.62	47.18	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.09	35.00	35.26	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.09	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.09	90.91	83.85	0.09	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.09	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.11	0.09	0.00	5.37	-0.11	-0.08
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.09	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.09	80.95	76.42	0.07	0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.09	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.11	0.09	61.90	67.23	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.09	18.18	21.13	-0.07	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	30.00	37.30	-0.04	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.11	0.09	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.09	54.55	56.79	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.09	41.18	42.61	-0.02	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.11	0.09	77.27	77.67	0.06	0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.11	0.09	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Washington	P12	0.16	0.09	69.57	66.54	0.06	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.09	30.43	26.44	-0.02	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.09	81.82	76.80	0.07	0.05
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	16.67	23.02	-0.07	-0.05
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.09	19.05	25.52	-0.07	-0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.11	0.09	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.14	0.09	79.17	80.10	0.08	0.05
Army	Pat	0.06	0.07	40.91	41.72	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.07	81.82	81.49	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.06	0.07	45.00	44.15	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.07	82.61	84.57	0.04	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.06	0.07	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.05	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.06	34.78	37.24	-0.03	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.06	0.06	8.33	10.86	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	21.05	22.46	-0.03	-0.04
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.05	-0.05
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.10	0.06	26.32	29.71	-0.05	-0.03
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.06	4.35	9.66	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.06	56.52	53.10	0.01	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.06	60.87	59.76	0.02	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.02	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.11	0.06	100.00	94.55	0.11	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.33	-0.02	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.52	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.06	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	68.18	69.68	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.07	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.06	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.06	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.06	0.06	76.19	75.94	0.03	0.03
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.11	0.06	28.57	30.17	-0.05	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.06	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.06	40.91	42.96	-0.02	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.06	90.91	87.74	0.08	0.05
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.06	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	62.06	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.06	35.00	40.78	-0.03	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.06	75.00	73.97	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.11	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.06	76.19	72.91	0.06	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.10	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.09	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.06	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.10	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.03	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.06	54.55	56.84	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.00	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	24.58	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.03	79.17	75.98	0.03	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.77	0.01	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.03	33.33	34.47	-0.02	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.00	0.03	36.36	39.72	-0.00	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.03	40.00	41.30	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.00	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.00	0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.03	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.02	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.03	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.03	27.78	29.58	-0.00	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.02	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.01	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.03	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.03	60.00	58.29	0.01	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.03	35.00	37.47	-0.02	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	56.52	50.27	0.01	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.00	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.00	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.05	0.03	69.57	73.28	0.02	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.03	27.27	23.80	-0.02	-0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.03	55.00	54.80	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.03	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.50	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.03	76.00	72.50	0.02	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.03	39.13	42.12	-0.01	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.03	78.26	78.39	0.03	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.00	0.03	65.00	60.02	0.00	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.02	0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.46	-0.02	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.00	-0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.03	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	86.96	85.46	0.04	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.28	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.03	4.00	5.26	-0.04	-0.03