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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:181.1
Current RPI:180
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:172
Current Record:11-10
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:206
Expected OOC SOS:256



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10110.80.09%
18-11125.61.13%
17-12144.05.86%
16-13159.917.55%
15-14175.328.44%
14-15190.827.93%
13-16206.415.10%
12-17222.13.51%
11-18238.70.38%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Iowa (115.0)MVCA78-84W100%0.0
11-19Loyola Marymount (242.7)WCCH83-75W100%0.0
11-22Oakland (113.2)HorzH95-89W100%0.0
11-24Abilene Christian (327.6)SlndH108-100W100%0.0
11-27Portland (241.6)WCCN90-74W100%0.0
11-28UTEP (237.1)CUSAN90-99L0%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (101.4)BWH77-83L0%0.0
12-6Colorado (45.6)P12H77-88L0%0.0
12-13Northern Colorado (311.7)BSkyA73-64L0%0.0
12-19Kansas St. (60.2)B12A61-56L0%0.0
12-21USC Upstate (325.9)ASunH89-61W100%0.0
1-2Boise St. (89.4)MWCA84-80L0%0.0
1-6UNLV (121.2)MWCH66-65W100%0.0
1-9San Jose St. (295.5)MWCA84-85W100%0.0
1-13San Diego St. (48.8)MWCH62-69L0%0.0
1-16Utah St. (164.3)MWCH92-96L0%0.0
1-20Air Force (232.6)MWCA79-83W100%0.0
1-27San Jose St. (295.5)MWCH74-66W100%0.0
1-30Wyoming (179.0)MWCA83-76L0%0.0
2-2San Diego St. (48.8)MWCA69-67L0%0.0
2-6Nevada (135.1)MWCH76-67W100%0.0
2-10Boise St. (89.4)MWCH0-044%-1.6
2-13UNLV (121.2)MWCA0-019%-9.7
2-17Utah St. (164.3)MWCA0-040%-2.8
2-20Wyoming (179.0)MWCH0-066%4.5
2-23New Mexico (95.8)MWCH0-041%-2.6
2-28Nevada (135.1)MWCA0-036%-3.9
3-2Fresno St. (123.2)MWCA0-032%-5.1
3-5Air Force (232.6)MWCH0-084%11.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC26.3726.3649.4748.17-0.28-0.97
Boise St.MWC3.054.3961.9061.380.731.00
Air ForceMWC3.004.3347.6240.75-0.14-0.80
San Diego St.MWC5.274.3370.0069.962.111.73
WyomingMWC3.004.3340.9140.70-0.55-0.80
NevadaMWC2.814.2957.8956.270.440.54
UNLVMWC2.774.2952.3856.270.130.54
Utah St.MWC3.044.2942.1144.11-0.48-0.50
San Jose St.MWC5.144.2927.7824.59-2.29-2.18
New MexicoMWC0.662.7360.8763.100.140.71
Fresno St.MWC0.672.6961.9059.350.160.50
PortlandWCC2.651.9141.6739.83-0.44-0.39
ColoradoP122.541.8468.1864.110.920.52
Loyola MarymountWCC2.531.8440.9140.00-0.46-0.37
Long Beach St.BW2.491.7842.8649.61-0.36-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.481.7833.3333.04-0.83-0.60
OaklandHorz2.441.7670.8370.241.020.71
Northern ColoradoBSky2.431.7525.0024.25-1.22-0.90
Northern IowaMVC2.381.7556.5256.980.310.24
Kansas St.B122.381.7259.0957.070.430.24
USC UpstateASun2.381.7223.8124.14-1.25-0.89
UTEPCUSA2.381.7250.0050.270.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.460.3740.9143.72-0.08-0.05
BYUWCC0.370.3066.6769.500.120.12
ArizonaP120.220.2779.1778.310.130.15
New Mexico St.WAC0.260.2665.2268.610.080.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.330.2430.4331.18-0.13-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.380.2431.8229.14-0.14-0.10
OregonP120.270.2481.8278.150.170.13
UC IrvineBW0.220.2172.7371.610.100.09
UC RiversideBW0.280.2145.8341.66-0.02-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2135.0032.28-0.06-0.07
PacificWCC0.160.2125.0028.89-0.08-0.09
UC DavisBW0.210.2140.0036.78-0.04-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.300.2072.0070.500.130.08
MontanaBSky0.230.1857.8962.290.040.05
PepperdineWCC0.200.1856.5257.280.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.160.1872.7376.350.070.09
CaliforniaP120.260.1865.2262.900.080.05
Idaho St.BSky0.220.1545.0046.14-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.220.1565.0069.270.070.06
DrakeMVC0.220.1521.7423.66-0.13-0.08
Oregon St.P120.210.1561.9056.430.050.02
HawaiiBW0.160.1584.2181.680.110.09
DenverSum0.160.1554.1751.800.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1554.5550.110.010.00
Cal PolyBW0.110.1530.0034.56-0.04-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.1514.2917.91-0.16-0.09
KansasB120.220.1581.8277.570.140.08
Washington St.P120.150.1436.3632.01-0.04-0.05
IdahoBSky0.180.1354.5554.930.020.01
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1239.1337.74-0.02-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.110.1231.5837.72-0.04-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.150.1278.2676.870.090.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1285.7185.390.070.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1256.5256.310.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.160.1247.3749.97-0.01-0.00
UCLAP120.110.1256.5253.250.010.01
BradleyMVC0.150.1212.5012.85-0.11-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.160.1254.1750.940.010.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1252.1751.940.000.00
UtahP120.160.1272.7368.540.070.04
Oklahoma St.B120.160.1247.8344.37-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.210.1282.6179.550.140.07
Iowa St.B120.150.1173.9170.070.070.05
DukeACC0.110.0973.9170.060.050.04
LamarSlnd0.060.0931.5831.96-0.02-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0945.0049.37-0.01-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0914.2915.47-0.08-0.06
ToledoMAC0.170.0959.0960.070.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.160.0945.4542.00-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.110.0933.3331.30-0.04-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.0928.5728.55-0.07-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.0910.0013.12-0.09-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.110.0915.0015.36-0.08-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0966.6767.680.020.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0954.1751.650.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.0950.0051.170.000.00
TCUB120.060.0943.4837.22-0.01-0.02
Michigan St.B100.100.0983.3383.010.070.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0928.0030.73-0.04-0.03
South DakotaSum0.110.0941.6741.24-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0975.0076.230.020.05
RiceCUSA0.050.0928.5729.71-0.02-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.0936.8438.40-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0943.4842.63-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.0965.2261.080.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0647.6252.06-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0652.6350.230.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.2556.100.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.0621.7423.40-0.06-0.03
LipscombASun0.110.0625.0029.27-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.120.0662.5056.260.030.01
NavyPat0.110.0662.5062.440.030.02
NJITASun0.050.0654.1755.260.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0663.6462.150.020.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0665.2267.130.020.02
SeattleWAC0.120.0647.6244.99-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0615.0027.27-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.050.0623.8127.69-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0675.0071.510.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0633.3334.94-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.080.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0652.3854.010.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.0625.0024.37-0.05-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.0621.0523.59-0.07-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.0670.5975.550.050.03
UABCUSA0.110.0682.6179.430.070.04
Texas A&MSEC0.110.0678.2678.040.060.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0642.1145.73-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0690.4886.860.090.04
ArmyPat0.050.0652.1753.360.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0682.6181.140.070.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0672.7368.020.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0679.1774.030.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.14-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.050.0658.3354.170.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.11-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0665.0066.790.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0668.1866.670.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0642.8650.39-0.020.00
VirginiaACC0.100.0682.6178.050.070.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.18-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.720.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.100.0633.3332.99-0.03-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.100.0650.0046.610.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.61-0.01-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.0682.6178.690.070.03
USCP120.000.0678.2673.060.000.03
BaylorB120.050.0672.7366.500.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.0621.7422.74-0.05-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0647.6245.86-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0661.9056.690.020.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0654.5556.010.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.065.007.24-0.04-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0659.0959.640.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.100.0633.3335.08-0.03-0.02
OklahomaB120.100.0686.3682.100.080.04
TexasB120.050.0669.5762.640.020.01
Texas TechB120.050.0659.0953.130.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0681.8283.030.030.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0630.4332.35-0.04-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0321.0527.81-0.04-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.210.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0317.6529.25-0.04-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0354.1751.820.010.00
New HampshireAE0.060.0355.0053.160.010.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0327.7834.49-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0318.7526.45-0.04-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0325.0026.87-0.03-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0328.5732.71-0.02-0.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.020.01
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0337.5040.51-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.64-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0313.6415.80-0.04-0.02
UMBCAE0.060.0324.0026.41-0.03-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.039.5213.53-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0373.9169.840.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.92-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.21-0.02-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0357.1459.450.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0371.4369.410.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0340.9149.26-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.780.000.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.740.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.550.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0390.4885.570.040.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.51-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.540.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.29-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0321.7424.68-0.03-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.050.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.35-0.04-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0336.8441.46-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0365.2259.020.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.36-0.02-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0339.1341.12-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0379.1776.550.000.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.40-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0345.4554.10-0.000.00