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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:60.4
Current RPI:24
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:77
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:21
Expected OOC SOS:16



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-13.00.01%
26-24.70.03%
25-39.20.11%
24-412.10.66%
23-516.12.11%
22-621.64.89%
21-729.19.45%
20-838.214.15%
19-948.617.75%
18-1061.917.44%
17-1176.013.94%
16-1292.710.10%
15-13109.75.30%
14-14129.52.63%
13-15145.51.04%
12-16168.50.30%
11-17181.70.06%
10-18204.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Montana (177.9)BSkyH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Georgia St. (88.9)SBH80-70W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (205.8)SCH75-62W100%0.0
11-26Missouri St. (140.7)MVCN0-066%5.1
12-3UTEP (87.5)CUSAH0-066%4.9
12-7Northern Colorado (221.9)BSkyH0-087%13.5
12-10Colorado (82.2)P12A0-034%-5.1
12-19Denver (111.6)SumA0-048%-0.5
12-22Charleston Southern (180.6)BSthH0-087%13.2
12-27New Mexico St. (93.7)WACA0-042%-2.3
12-31Boise St. (78.0)MWCH0-064%4.5
1-3New Mexico (123.3)MWCA0-046%-1.1
1-7Wyoming (87.6)MWCH0-062%3.7
1-10Air Force (194.4)MWCA0-062%3.6
1-14Nevada (181.0)MWCH0-078%9.2
1-17San Jose St. (305.9)MWCA0-082%11.0
1-24San Diego St. (14.1)MWCH0-033%-5.4
1-27Boise St. (78.0)MWCA0-041%-2.7
1-31Fresno St. (254.7)MWCH0-089%14.4
2-4Wyoming (87.6)MWCA0-038%-3.5
2-7UNLV (125.0)MWCH0-075%8.0
2-10New Mexico (123.3)MWCH0-069%6.1
2-14San Diego St. (14.1)MWCA0-015%-12.6
2-18Fresno St. (254.7)MWCA0-073%7.3
2-21Air Force (194.4)MWCH0-082%10.8
2-25San Jose St. (305.9)MWCH0-093%18.1
3-4Nevada (181.0)MWCA0-057%2.0
3-7Utah St. (117.6)MWCA0-048%-0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC32.6426.40100.0065.4432.648.15
WyomingMWC0.004.58100.0069.110.001.75
New MexicoMWC0.004.5260.0057.290.000.66
Boise St.MWC2.784.4980.0064.331.671.29
San Diego St.MWC0.004.49100.0088.410.003.45
Fresno St.MWC0.004.490.0025.79-0.00-2.17
Air ForceMWC0.004.4833.3347.19-0.00-0.25
NevadaMWC0.004.4625.0044.14-0.00-0.52
San Jose St.MWC0.004.450.0019.88-0.00-2.68
Utah St.MWC0.002.8075.0061.420.000.64
UNLVMWC0.002.8075.0051.650.000.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.002.0740.0067.90-0.000.74
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.980.0052.67-0.000.11
ColoradoP120.001.9575.0059.250.000.36
MontanaBSky16.671.9250.0053.300.000.13
DenverSum0.001.8566.6767.120.000.63
UTEPCUSA0.001.85100.0072.280.000.82
Charleston SouthernBSth0.001.7966.6755.890.000.21
Georgia St.SB16.671.7966.6769.375.560.69
MercerSC16.671.7950.0055.170.000.18
Missouri St.MVC0.001.7950.0052.550.000.09
Montana St.BSky0.000.260.0021.79-0.00-0.14
CaliforniaP120.000.2575.0069.250.000.10
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2250.0049.860.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.220.0028.60-0.00-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2220.0038.11-0.00-0.05
UC DavisBW0.000.20100.0042.270.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.19100.0055.960.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.1925.0054.27-0.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0020.18-0.00-0.11
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1925.0033.31-0.00-0.06
Washington St.P120.000.1733.3329.16-0.00-0.07
SeattleWAC2.780.1625.0045.15-1.39-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.1633.3348.77-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1620.0050.95-0.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.1675.0045.460.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1625.0036.61-0.00-0.04
UtahP120.000.1666.6772.710.000.07
USCP120.000.1550.0028.900.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.1366.6754.750.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.130.0044.87-0.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0029.35-0.00-0.05
Western CarolinaSC2.080.1325.0050.46-1.040.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1366.6762.900.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1350.0034.200.00-0.04
PacificWCC0.000.1333.3330.38-0.00-0.05
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0075.900.000.07
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0021.34-0.00-0.07
StetsonASun0.000.130.0032.66-0.00-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1325.0052.70-0.000.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0071.500.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1375.0050.700.000.00
South DakotaSum0.000.120.0038.43-0.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1240.0047.31-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1250.0064.410.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.1080.0076.700.000.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1033.3340.34-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1075.0073.980.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1025.0031.38-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.10100.0048.940.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.1033.3330.02-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0046.060.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.10100.0050.900.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0061.980.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0065.470.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.10100.0073.990.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0083.950.000.07
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6749.780.00-0.00
Seton HallBE2.780.10100.0065.622.780.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1066.6750.750.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0950.0046.130.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0933.3367.26-0.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0023.12-0.00-0.05
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0054.250.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0966.6751.550.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0975.0067.070.000.03
StanfordP120.000.0980.0070.420.000.04
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6769.270.000.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3353.25-0.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0966.6750.600.000.00
Chicago St.WAC2.080.090.0019.97-2.08-0.05
IUPUISum0.000.0940.0031.23-0.00-0.03
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0031.79-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0066.25-0.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0740.0058.90-0.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0056.990.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0725.0029.87-0.00-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.000.0725.0020.71-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0022.61-0.00-0.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3352.31-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0716.6731.76-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0069.380.000.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0750.0030.030.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0046.09-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0725.0027.00-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0766.6757.980.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0733.3323.56-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.75-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0775.0044.920.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0780.0070.940.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0750.0041.110.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0766.6739.910.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0740.0040.15-0.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0740.0047.10-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.01-0.00-0.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3328.79-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0733.3338.23-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0675.0055.820.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6763.740.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0052.120.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3333.84-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0666.6760.350.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3326.91-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0065.220.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.260.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.570.000.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.41-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0640.0044.83-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0059.140.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0666.6761.780.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0650.0050.280.000.00
SMUAmer0.000.0640.0066.55-0.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0035.37-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0633.3349.98-0.00-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0030.140.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0029.35-0.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0625.0046.58-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0625.0025.51-0.00-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0650.0025.530.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0034.32-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0640.0038.71-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0620.0022.51-0.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0050.520.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0666.6769.740.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0625.0051.72-0.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.060.0042.64-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.970.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0675.0055.300.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0340.0039.52-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0052.730.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0333.3350.48-0.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0333.3354.56-0.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0366.6756.780.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0030.80-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0068.250.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0036.25-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.82-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0051.400.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun2.780.0320.0026.30-1.67-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6749.540.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0325.0037.50-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0039.42-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0325.0045.33-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0028.11-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0043.100.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0375.0059.380.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0333.3344.17-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0325.0040.73-0.00-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0035.490.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0036.220.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0320.0035.41-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0042.35-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.180.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6744.530.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0070.500.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.930.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0055.150.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.54-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0036.60-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.95-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3361.54-0.000.01
Iowa St.B122.080.0375.0063.471.040.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0320.0053.43-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0320.0029.38-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0049.930.00-0.00