live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:181.0
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:155
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:194
Expected OOC SOS:227



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16181.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA78-84W100%0.0
11-19Loyola Marymount (223.0)WCCH83-75W100%0.0
11-22Oakland (116.0)HorzH95-89W100%0.0
11-24Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH108-100W100%0.0
11-27Portland (249.0)WCCN90-74W100%0.0
11-28UTEP (215.0)CUSAN90-99L0%0.0
12-3Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH77-83L0%0.0
12-6Colorado (35.0)P12H77-88L0%0.0
12-13Northern Colorado (304.0)BSkyA73-64L0%0.0
12-19Kansas St. (92.0)B12A61-56L0%0.0
12-21USC Upstate (324.0)ASunH89-61W100%0.0
1-2Boise St. (101.0)MWCA84-80L0%0.0
1-6UNLV (147.0)MWCH66-65W100%0.0
1-9San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA84-85W100%0.0
1-13San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH62-69L0%0.0
1-16Utah St. (151.0)MWCH92-96L0%0.0
1-20Air Force (226.0)MWCA79-83W100%0.0
1-27San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH74-66W100%0.0
1-30Wyoming (187.0)MWCA83-76L0%0.0
2-2San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA69-67L0%0.0
2-6Nevada (118.0)MWCH76-67W100%0.0
2-10Boise St. (101.0)MWCH97-93W100%0.0
2-13UNLV (147.0)MWCA87-80L0%0.0
2-17Utah St. (151.0)MWCA72-59L0%0.0
2-20Wyoming (187.0)MWCH66-84L0%0.0
2-23New Mexico (141.0)MWCH86-69W100%0.0
2-28Nevada (118.0)MWCA87-80L0%0.0
3-2Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA87-73L0%0.0
3-5Air Force (226.0)MWCH87-73W100%0.0
3-9San Jose St. (301.0)MWCN80-61W100%0.0
3-10Boise St. (101.0)MWCN81-88W100%0.0
3-11Fresno St. (66.0)MWCN64-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC26.5126.5147.8347.83-1.15-1.15
Boise St.MWC5.575.5762.9662.961.441.44
San Jose St.MWC5.515.5124.0024.00-2.86-2.86
San Diego St.MWC4.194.1970.0070.001.681.68
Fresno St.MWC4.144.1470.0070.001.651.65
Utah St.MWC4.104.1044.4444.44-0.46-0.46
WyomingMWC4.094.0935.7135.71-1.17-1.17
UNLVMWC4.084.0851.7251.720.140.14
Air ForceMWC4.064.0642.8642.86-0.58-0.58
NevadaMWC4.054.0557.1457.140.580.58
New MexicoMWC2.632.6354.8454.840.250.25
PortlandWCC1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
Loyola MarymountWCC1.691.6944.8344.83-0.17-0.17
ColoradoP121.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.611.6134.6234.62-0.50-0.50
Long Beach St.BW1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
OaklandHorz1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Northern ColoradoBSky1.591.5925.0025.00-0.79-0.79
Northern IowaMVC1.591.5965.6265.620.500.50
Kansas St.B121.561.5650.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun1.561.5625.9325.93-0.75-0.75
UTEPCUSA1.561.5654.8454.840.150.15
Montana St.BSky0.380.3843.3343.33-0.05-0.05
ArizonaP120.330.3375.7675.760.170.17
San DiegoWCC0.260.2627.5927.59-0.12-0.12
BYUWCC0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
OregonP120.250.2581.8281.820.160.16
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.2433.3333.33-0.08-0.08
UC IrvineBW0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
MontanaBSky0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
PacificWCC0.200.2023.0823.08-0.11-0.11
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1548.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
HawaiiBW0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
Cal PolyBW0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.150.1587.8887.880.110.11
Washington St.P120.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
IdahoBSky0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.130.1374.1974.190.060.06
Portland St.BSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1383.8783.870.090.09
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
Oregon St.P120.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.130.1312.9012.90-0.09-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
LamarSlnd0.110.1126.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1110.7110.71-0.08-0.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1072.4172.410.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.0818.5218.52-0.05-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0814.2914.29-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas TechB120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0262.8662.860.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0265.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00