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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:97.3
Current RPI:109
Expected SOS:96
Current SOS:154
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:92
Expected OOC SOS:114



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-416.70.03%
24-525.10.21%
23-630.90.67%
22-739.12.28%
21-847.75.00%
20-958.59.31%
19-1071.613.84%
18-1186.117.65%
17-12101.717.83%
16-13118.414.56%
15-14135.39.86%
14-15154.45.15%
13-16173.92.44%
12-17192.30.88%
11-18211.50.24%
10-19223.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13New Mexico St. (120.6)WACH64-61W100%0.0
11-20Stanford (52.1)P12A56-49L0%0.0
11-23Maryland Eastern Shore (294.9)MEACH76-65W100%0.0
11-25Southeastern Louisiana (230.6)SlndH67-59W100%0.0
11-27Alcorn St. (319.5)SWACH80-58W100%0.0
11-30Colorado (75.1)P12A58-72W100%0.0
12-3Wichita St. (34.3)MVCH67-82L0%0.0
12-10Northern Colorado (281.3)BSkyH0-090%15.2
12-17Kansas St. (87.0)B12N0-030%-6.4
12-19Loyola Marymount (167.9)WCCH0-072%7.1
12-22Long Beach St. (200.9)BWA0-061%3.2
12-28UNLV (195.9)MWCH0-075%8.0
12-31Boise St. (108.9)MWCA0-039%-3.4
1-4San Jose St. (192.3)MWCA0-060%3.2
1-7Air Force (168.0)MWCH0-072%6.8
1-14New Mexico (89.1)MWCH0-059%2.6
1-18Fresno St. (172.2)MWCA0-054%1.2
1-21Utah St. (118.1)MWCA0-043%-2.2
1-25San Jose St. (192.3)MWCH0-078%9.4
1-28San Diego St. (63.7)MWCA0-027%-7.3
1-31Boise St. (108.9)MWCH0-059%2.9
2-4UNLV (195.9)MWCA0-056%1.7
2-7Utah St. (118.1)MWCH0-063%4.1
2-11Fresno St. (172.2)MWCH0-073%7.5
2-14Wyoming (151.4)MWCA0-050%0.1
2-21New Mexico (89.1)MWCA0-038%-3.7
2-25San Diego St. (63.7)MWCH0-047%-1.0
2-28Wyoming (151.4)MWCH0-070%6.4
3-4Nevada (46.2)MWCA0-027%-7.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC28.3026.3665.5258.258.784.35
New MexicoMWC0.454.3962.5058.590.110.75
Boise St.MWC0.004.3350.0057.340.000.63
WyomingMWC0.004.3266.6754.810.000.42
UNLVMWC0.004.3062.5043.330.00-0.57
Fresno St.MWC0.004.2957.1444.510.00-0.47
San Jose St.MWC0.004.2950.0041.490.00-0.73
Utah St.MWC0.004.2842.8650.84-0.000.07
San Diego St.MWC0.004.2860.0069.760.001.69
Air ForceMWC0.452.7557.1448.810.06-0.07
NevadaMWC0.002.7277.7871.730.001.18
New Mexico St.WAC7.141.9085.7172.365.100.85
ColoradoP127.141.8185.7164.605.100.53
Loyola MarymountWCC0.001.8125.0046.50-0.00-0.13
Long Beach St.BW0.841.780.0038.40-0.84-0.41
Wichita St.MVC7.651.7875.0086.193.831.29
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC8.051.780.0035.82-8.05-0.51
StanfordP127.141.7862.5057.131.790.25
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd7.651.7550.0052.120.000.07
Alcorn St.SWAC7.141.720.0033.58-7.14-0.57
Kansas St.B120.001.7288.8956.260.000.22
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.7216.6741.47-0.00-0.29
CaliforniaP121.110.3187.5064.760.830.09
OregonP120.000.2975.0072.800.000.13
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2412.5029.77-0.00-0.10
Arizona St.P120.000.2455.5637.870.00-0.06
Oregon St.P120.000.2425.0023.62-0.00-0.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.400.2325.0043.29-0.20-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.2225.0048.70-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.210.0025.31-0.00-0.11
PortlandWCC0.450.2157.1450.730.060.00
PacificWCC0.000.2142.8645.98-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.1942.8645.65-0.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.400.18100.0089.590.400.14
UTEPCUSA0.510.1820.0035.46-0.31-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.1842.8629.20-0.00-0.07
UC IrvineBW0.000.1844.4453.29-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.1877.7870.290.000.07
KansasB120.400.1788.8977.470.310.09
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1642.8658.24-0.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.450.1637.5031.15-0.11-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1633.3332.79-0.00-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1612.5033.18-0.00-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.400.1616.6749.78-0.26-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.600.1571.4358.830.260.03
BYUWCC0.000.1562.5067.080.000.05
EvansvilleMVC0.600.1550.0045.130.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.400.1542.8650.98-0.060.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0031.31-0.00-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.1457.1452.140.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1312.5033.31-0.00-0.04
IdahoBSky0.000.1350.0053.130.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1350.0064.910.000.04
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0092.200.000.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1357.1457.780.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.90-0.00-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1240.0041.72-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1211.1120.27-0.00-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.1242.8641.13-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1233.3352.49-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0020.21-0.00-0.07
Texas TechB120.000.1287.5061.660.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1240.0054.81-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.120.0038.78-0.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.1280.0058.220.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1271.4348.030.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1225.0042.78-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1160.0067.820.000.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1128.5733.56-0.00-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1157.1449.420.00-0.00
TexasB120.450.1150.0038.730.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.11100.0060.950.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.510.1014.2943.08-0.36-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.1040.0058.88-0.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.600.0985.7153.770.430.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0940.0043.88-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0019.08-0.00-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA1.620.0957.1472.530.230.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.450.0912.5031.01-0.33-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.450.090.0022.30-0.45-0.05
SeattleWAC0.450.0916.6738.83-0.30-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.450.0942.8637.05-0.06-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0942.8640.38-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.51-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0040.17-0.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.0022.47-0.00-0.05
SMUAmer0.000.0966.6766.650.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.500.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0960.0058.900.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0950.0045.660.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.09100.0086.650.000.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.090.0033.71-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0937.5025.74-0.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0871.4354.010.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0013.32-0.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0725.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0750.0066.380.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0625.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.08-0.00-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3355.64-0.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0620.0017.37-0.00-0.04
UMKCWAC0.000.0655.5649.660.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0620.0022.88-0.00-0.03
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0671.4337.680.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6743.53-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0677.7864.250.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0625.0041.19-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0644.4451.58-0.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0662.5074.160.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0677.7877.640.000.03
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.90-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.63-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.680.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.400.060.0026.22-0.40-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0612.5030.51-0.00-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0620.0042.14-0.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0628.5724.39-0.00-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.510.0657.1429.760.07-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.77-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.06100.0076.400.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.270.000.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.400.0687.5075.690.300.03
Saint LouisA100.400.0625.0023.99-0.20-0.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.070.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.540.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.03-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.370.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.0342.8656.48-0.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.4438.15-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.450.0362.5056.520.110.00
AmericanPat0.000.0312.5028.64-0.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0342.8644.90-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.11-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.510.0355.5642.150.06-0.00
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7175.800.000.02
UMBCAE0.510.0380.0054.190.310.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.590.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.29-0.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0370.0050.010.000.00
HarvardIvy0.400.0333.3349.39-0.13-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0362.5060.090.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0017.92-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.400.0377.7866.740.220.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.00
Seton HallBE0.400.0375.0054.480.200.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0325.0055.44-0.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0337.5047.57-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.510.0312.5023.82-0.38-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0056.080.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.170.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.450.0316.6729.83-0.30-0.01
LSUSEC0.400.0371.4347.690.17-0.00
Michigan St.B100.400.0360.0058.780.080.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.910.000.02
Notre DameACC0.450.03100.0076.970.450.02
TulsaAmer0.400.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.450.030.0034.69-0.45-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.880.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.03-0.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3351.98-0.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0337.5048.85-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0337.5050.92-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0385.7177.000.000.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0330.0045.49-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.000.0342.8653.80-0.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02