live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:115
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-0
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:219



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16182.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gonzaga (20.0)WCCA93-61L0%0.0
11-16Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH88-67W100%0.0
11-19UTEP (103.0)CUSAA82-74L0%0.0
11-22Northern Colorado (205.0)BSkyH72-65W100%0.0
11-25Prairie View A&M (304.0)SWACH95-68W100%0.0
11-27Bethune Cookman (343.0)MEACH66-52W100%0.0
11-30New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH85-83W100%0.0
12-3Colorado (34.0)P12H62-67L0%0.0
12-11Denver (139.0)SumH70-80L0%0.0
12-23UIC (315.0)HorzH74-61W100%0.0
12-28Lamar (344.0)SlndH86-71W100%0.0
1-1San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH61-71L0%0.0
1-4New Mexico (12.0)MWCA80-73L0%0.0
1-8San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA64-66W100%0.0
1-11Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH76-57W100%0.0
1-15Utah St. (116.0)MWCA57-50L0%0.0
1-18Air Force (251.0)MWCH74-68W100%0.0
1-25New Mexico (12.0)MWCH66-68L0%0.0
1-29Nevada (137.0)MWCA76-67L0%0.0
2-1San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA65-56L0%0.0
2-5UNLV (108.0)MWCH75-57W100%0.0
2-8Air Force (251.0)MWCA56-68W100%0.0
2-11Utah St. (116.0)MWCH62-71L0%0.0
2-15Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA75-66L0%0.0
2-18Boise St. (82.0)MWCH72-84L0%0.0
2-22Wyoming (135.0)MWCH82-67W100%0.0
2-26UNLV (108.0)MWCA78-70L0%0.0
3-5San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH78-66W100%0.0
3-8Wyoming (135.0)MWCA83-75L0%0.0
3-12Utah St. (116.0)MWCN73-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC26.3626.3640.3240.32-5.10-5.10
Utah St.MWC5.845.8450.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC4.354.3586.2186.213.153.15
New MexicoMWC4.334.3380.6580.652.652.65
WyomingMWC4.284.2853.5753.570.310.31
UNLVMWC4.264.2661.2961.290.960.96
Fresno St.MWC4.234.2348.2848.28-0.15-0.15
San Jose St.MWC4.234.2318.5218.52-2.66-2.66
Air ForceMWC4.194.1938.4638.46-0.97-0.97
Boise St.MWC2.722.7258.0658.060.440.44
NevadaMWC2.612.6145.1645.16-0.25-0.25
New Mexico St.WAC1.931.9375.7675.760.990.99
Weber St.BSky1.891.8962.9662.960.490.49
Northern ColoradoBSky1.891.8957.1457.140.270.27
ColoradoP121.781.7866.6766.670.590.59
DenverSum1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.751.7531.2531.25-0.66-0.66
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.751.7517.2417.24-1.14-1.14
UTEPCUSA1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
GonzagaWCC1.691.6981.2581.251.061.06
UICHorz1.671.6714.2914.29-1.19-1.19
LamarSlnd1.671.6711.1111.11-1.30-1.30
Southern UtahBSky0.300.303.573.57-0.28-0.28
South DakotaSum0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.240.2467.8667.860.080.08
BYUWCC0.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
PacificWCC0.210.2148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.200.2088.2488.240.150.15
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.190.1951.7251.720.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1838.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
UtahP120.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
CaliforniaP120.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1642.4242.42-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
USCP120.150.1532.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.130.1348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
UCLAP120.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.130.1346.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
IdahoWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.050.05
OaklandHorz0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
TroySB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ArmyPat0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0677.7877.780.030.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IUPUISum0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
ElonSC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02