Colorado St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	18.0
Current RPI:	18
Expected SOS:	35
Current SOS:	35
Current Record:	23-8
Expected Record:	23-8
Current Conf Record:	12-6
Expected Conf Record:	12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	8-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	8-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	20
Expected OOC SOS:	108

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	18.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Montana (66.0)	BSky	H	72-65	W	100%
11-21	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	53-60	W	100%
11-24	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	55-73	W	100%
11-26	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	85-69	W	100%
12-1	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	79-72	W	100%
12-5	Colorado (38.0)	P12	A	70-61	L	0%
12-8	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	64-55	L	0%
12-17	North Florida (230.0)	ASun	H	83-55	W	100%
12-19	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	78-58	W	100%
12-22	Portland (231.0)	WCC	N	53-70	W	100%
12-23	Virginia Tech (177.0)	ACC	N	88-52	W	100%
1-2	Texas El Paso (95.0)	CUSA	H	62-58	W	100%
1-5	St. Bonaventure (139.0)	A10	H	85-64	W	100%
1-12	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	79-72	L	0%
1-16	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	79-40	W	100%
1-19	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	66-61	W	100%
1-23	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	A	66-61	L	0%
1-26	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	63-74	W	100%
1-30	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	77-57	W	100%
2-2	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	65-46	W	100%
2-6	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	69-73	W	100%
2-13	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	66-60	W	100%
2-16	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	86-89	W	100%
2-20	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	61-59	L	0%
2-23	New Mexico (2.0)	MWC	H	82-91	L	0%
2-27	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	74-67	W	100%
3-2	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	78-65	L	0%
3-6	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	56-78	W	100%
3-9	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	77-66	W	100%
3-13	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	N	67-61	W	100%
3-15	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	75-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colorado St.	MWC	26.47	26.47	77.95	77.95	14.80	14.80
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.84	5.84	73.33	73.33	2.73	2.73
Fresno St.	MWC	5.65	5.65	36.00	36.00	-1.58	-1.58
New Mexico	MWC	4.33	4.33	84.38	84.38	2.98	2.98
Wyoming	MWC	4.32	4.32	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
San Diego St.	MWC	4.22	4.22	67.86	67.86	1.51	1.51
Air Force	MWC	4.17	4.17	57.69	57.69	0.64	0.64
Nevada	MWC	4.16	4.16	39.29	39.29	-0.89	-0.89
Boise St.	MWC	4.13	4.13	66.67	66.67	1.38	1.38
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	1.90	1.90	40.00	40.00	-0.38	-0.38
Colorado	P12	1.84	1.84	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Portland	WCC	1.79	1.79	31.03	31.03	-0.68	-0.68
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.75	1.75	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Montana	BSky	1.70	1.70	82.14	82.14	1.09	1.09
Washington	P12	1.69	1.69	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Texas El Paso	CUSA	1.69	1.69	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
North Florida	ASun	1.67	1.67	40.00	40.00	-0.33	-0.33
Denver	WAC	1.67	1.67	72.41	72.41	0.75	0.75
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.66	1.66	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
St. Bonaventure	A10	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.61	1.61	41.94	41.94	-0.26	-0.26
Oregon	P12	0.28	0.28	76.47	76.47	0.15	0.15
Montana St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.22	0.22	31.03	31.03	-0.08	-0.08
UCLA	P12	0.21	0.21	73.53	73.53	0.10	0.10
UC Irvine	BW	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.21	0.21	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.21	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
California	P12	0.21	0.21	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Arizona	P12	0.20	0.20	78.12	78.12	0.11	0.11
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	69.70	69.70	0.08	0.08
UC Riverside	BW	0.20	0.20	14.29	14.29	-0.14	-0.14
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.19	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
San Francisco	WCC	0.19	0.19	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.18	0.18	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Mercer	ASun	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	BW	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Portland St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	23.08	23.08	-0.07	-0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	ind	0.11	0.11	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.09	0.09	21.43	21.43	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	93.75	93.75	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.05	0.05	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00