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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:65.3
Current RPI:155
Expected SOS:84
Current SOS:261
Current Record:2-0
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:8-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:2-0
Expected OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC RPI:26
Expected OOC SOS:18



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-26.00.01%
25-36.40.05%
24-49.50.21%
23-513.81.01%
22-617.92.60%
21-724.76.03%
20-833.010.06%
19-943.515.54%
18-1055.417.32%
17-1170.116.57%
16-1286.013.70%
15-13103.98.63%
14-14123.45.12%
13-15143.42.05%
12-16166.70.83%
11-17183.40.19%
10-18204.70.06%
8-20248.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Montana (200.1)BSkyH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Georgia St. (133.3)SBH80-70W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (218.1)SCH0-086%13.1
11-26Missouri St. (115.1)MVCN0-059%2.6
12-3UTEP (85.3)CUSAH0-062%3.8
12-7Northern Colorado (252.5)BSkyH0-088%14.4
12-10Colorado (47.7)P12A0-023%-8.7
12-19Denver (135.7)SumA0-049%-0.2
12-22Charleston Southern (138.5)BSthH0-080%10.3
12-27New Mexico St. (96.0)WACA0-043%-2.1
12-31Boise St. (64.0)MWCH0-058%2.5
1-3New Mexico (101.5)MWCA0-040%-3.1
1-7Wyoming (135.4)MWCH0-071%6.6
1-10Air Force (198.7)MWCA0-060%3.1
1-14Nevada (141.7)MWCH0-071%6.6
1-17San Jose St. (296.3)MWCA0-079%9.8
1-24San Diego St. (21.7)MWCH0-037%-4.1
1-27Boise St. (64.0)MWCA0-035%-4.7
1-31Fresno St. (206.8)MWCH0-083%11.4
2-4Wyoming (135.4)MWCA0-048%-0.6
2-7UNLV (148.0)MWCH0-076%8.5
2-10New Mexico (101.5)MWCH0-063%4.1
2-14San Diego St. (21.7)MWCA0-017%-11.2
2-18Fresno St. (206.8)MWCA0-064%4.2
2-21Air Force (198.7)MWCH0-080%10.3
2-25San Jose St. (296.3)MWCH0-092%17.0
3-4Nevada (141.7)MWCA0-048%-0.6
3-7Utah St. (106.1)MWCA0-044%-1.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC37.5026.43100.0062.2737.506.48
WyomingMWC0.004.61100.0057.310.000.67
New MexicoMWC0.004.5475.0063.020.001.18
Boise St.MWC6.254.51100.0066.806.251.52
San Diego St.MWC0.004.51100.0082.870.002.96
Air ForceMWC0.004.5150.0046.580.00-0.31
Fresno St.MWC0.004.510.0033.49-0.00-1.49
NevadaMWC0.004.4750.0053.090.000.28
San Jose St.MWC0.004.470.0021.23-0.00-2.57
Utah St.MWC0.002.82100.0064.640.000.83
UNLVMWC0.002.8266.6746.950.00-0.17
New Mexico St.WAC0.002.0733.3365.99-0.000.66
Northern ColoradoBSky0.001.980.0048.92-0.00-0.04
ColoradoP120.001.95100.0068.120.000.71
MontanaBSky25.001.920.0051.73-25.000.07
DenverSum0.001.8550.0062.870.000.48
UTEPCUSA0.001.85100.0070.860.000.77
Charleston SouthernBSth0.001.79100.0059.830.000.35
Georgia St.SB25.001.790.0060.17-25.000.36
MercerSC0.001.7950.0054.270.000.15
Missouri St.MVC0.001.79100.0058.240.000.29
CaliforniaP120.000.2675.0073.240.000.12
Montana St.BSky0.000.260.0024.76-0.00-0.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2350.0035.570.00-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.000.220.0028.50-0.00-0.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.220.0033.60-0.00-0.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.200.0038.57-0.00-0.05
UC DavisBW0.000.20100.0043.140.00-0.03
WashingtonP120.000.20100.0056.460.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.190.0024.22-0.00-0.10
Washington St.P120.000.1733.3327.05-0.00-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1733.3354.24-0.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1750.0043.560.00-0.02
SeattleWAC0.000.1633.3347.72-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1650.0047.220.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1633.3349.79-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.000.1666.6770.360.000.06
USCP120.000.1650.0026.710.00-0.07
Cal PolyBW0.000.1350.0038.240.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.000.1350.0029.930.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.13100.0051.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1333.3352.91-0.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0063.410.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.130.0043.21-0.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.130.0027.74-0.00-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.000.130.0045.03-0.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.130.0055.60-0.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0068.970.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1366.6748.270.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0016.72-0.00-0.08
South DakotaSum0.000.130.0036.84-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.130.0032.16-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0070.600.000.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1250.0049.560.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1250.0062.510.000.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.1066.6751.090.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.10100.0057.560.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.1066.6774.980.000.05
PortlandWCC0.000.10100.0050.390.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1050.0047.150.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.10100.0061.420.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.10100.0051.300.000.00
RiceCUSA0.000.1050.0031.730.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1050.0046.900.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.100.0032.47-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.10100.0059.140.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0054.580.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.10100.0068.990.000.04
UC IrvineBW0.000.1050.0062.910.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.10100.0084.100.000.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0020.87-0.00-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1050.0052.770.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3347.78-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0058.420.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.09100.0069.310.000.04
StanfordP120.000.09100.0068.290.000.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.090.0051.04-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3349.18-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0044.430.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.0027.18-0.00-0.04
IUPUISum0.000.0933.3330.78-0.00-0.04
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0030.14-0.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0062.16-0.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6766.420.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.07100.0058.330.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0750.0041.040.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0750.0021.230.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0033.43-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3344.86-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.070.0025.34-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.070.0054.47-0.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.070.0028.82-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.070.0048.48-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0750.0025.820.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.340.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0766.6768.330.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.070.0038.29-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.07100.0046.320.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3332.57-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0733.3351.38-0.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.070.0028.13-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0750.0043.730.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.070.0028.95-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0725.0033.23-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.07100.0057.810.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0023.71-0.00-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0666.6757.590.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.06100.0061.810.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0038.12-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0633.3344.98-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0064.850.000.02
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.750.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3328.03-0.00-0.03
UC RiversideBW0.000.060.0027.23-0.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0061.850.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0081.110.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.06100.0077.160.000.03
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0041.690.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0625.0022.09-0.00-0.03
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0065.390.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0045.55-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0053.38-0.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.06100.0029.380.00-0.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0650.0059.030.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6752.470.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0034.57-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.060.0015.68-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0044.57-0.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.93-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0065.86-0.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0048.57-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0038.65-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.06100.0052.850.000.00
TroySB0.000.060.0046.30-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0666.6754.260.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0056.300.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.220.000.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0049.490.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0056.600.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0350.0052.540.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0040.22-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0046.41-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.040.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.39-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0048.380.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.900.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.610.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0034.26-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.53-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0027.11-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.030.0048.03-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.030.0033.64-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0333.3349.73-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.63-0.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.000.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0366.6752.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.40-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0043.330.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.800.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0034.27-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0041.45-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.03100.0070.690.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0050.080.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0350.0063.960.000.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0068.940.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0072.160.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.540.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0031.68-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.200.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0036.560.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0054.04-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0034.37-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0333.3333.43-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0061.070.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B126.250.03100.0061.276.250.01
OaklandHorz0.000.030.0033.70-0.00-0.01