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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:33.0
Current RPI:11
Expected SOS:100
Current SOS:98
Current Record:10-0
Expected Record:23-7
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:10-0
Expected OOC Record:11-1
Expected OOC RPI:5
Expected OOC SOS:47



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
30-09.00.01%
29-110.20.18%
28-211.70.96%
27-314.63.77%
26-417.78.86%
25-521.815.82%
24-626.820.93%
23-733.219.66%
22-842.115.38%
21-952.78.69%
20-1065.33.88%
19-1180.81.28%
18-1293.90.47%
17-13113.20.10%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Montana (165.4)BSkyH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Georgia St. (66.5)SBH80-70W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (243.7)SCH75-62W100%0.0
11-26Missouri St. (212.2)MVCN76-61W100%0.0
11-28Pacific (206.0)WCCN75-64W100%0.0
11-29UC Santa Barbara (78.5)BWN63-65W100%0.0
12-3UTEP (70.6)CUSAH65-62W100%0.0
12-7Northern Colorado (185.1)BSkyH66-58W100%0.0
12-10Colorado (68.9)P12A60-62W100%0.0
12-19Denver (175.0)SumA84-85W100%0.0
12-22Charleston Southern (204.0)BSthH0-091%15.6
12-27New Mexico St. (135.2)WACA0-044%-1.6
12-31Boise St. (51.1)MWCH0-062%3.5
1-3New Mexico (97.0)MWCA0-047%-1.0
1-7Wyoming (73.3)MWCH0-064%4.3
1-10Air Force (138.6)MWCA0-049%-0.3
1-14Nevada (283.3)MWCH0-093%17.1
1-17San Jose St. (328.0)MWCA0-093%17.0
1-24San Diego St. (35.4)MWCH0-059%2.5
1-27Boise St. (51.1)MWCA0-034%-4.8
1-31Fresno St. (261.4)MWCH0-092%16.8
2-4Wyoming (73.3)MWCA0-036%-4.0
2-7UNLV (142.3)MWCH0-086%12.4
2-10New Mexico (97.0)MWCH0-074%7.3
2-14San Diego St. (35.4)MWCA0-031%-5.8
2-18Fresno St. (261.4)MWCA0-076%8.4
2-21Air Force (138.6)MWCH0-076%8.1
2-25San Jose St. (328.0)MWCH0-098%25.3
3-4Nevada (283.3)MWCA0-077%8.7
3-7Utah St. (192.3)MWCA0-065%4.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC27.8426.35100.0079.2727.8415.42
WyomingMWC0.824.2680.0075.320.492.16
New MexicoMWC0.004.2172.7363.810.001.16
Fresno St.MWC0.284.2127.2730.18-0.13-1.67
San Diego St.MWC0.004.1872.7373.810.001.99
NevadaMWC0.284.1811.1126.29-0.22-1.98
Boise St.MWC0.314.1777.7874.490.172.04
Air ForceMWC0.284.1750.0057.350.000.61
San Jose St.MWC0.004.150.008.28-0.00-3.46
UNLVMWC0.002.6066.6750.770.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.002.6054.5548.710.00-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.811.9233.3361.96-0.270.46
Northern ColoradoBSky5.281.8442.8658.63-0.750.32
ColoradoP125.311.8275.0060.152.660.37
PacificWCC5.281.8162.5039.741.32-0.37
MontanaBSky5.001.7928.5754.36-2.140.16
MercerSC5.591.7350.0045.590.00-0.15
DenverSum5.001.7250.0057.100.000.24
UTEPCUSA5.001.7266.6773.831.670.82
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.281.7042.8666.31-0.750.55
Charleston SouthernBSth0.001.6742.8651.12-0.000.04
Georgia St.SB5.001.6771.4374.562.140.82
Missouri St.MVC5.001.6737.5038.60-1.25-0.38
UC DavisBW0.000.2487.5068.000.000.09
Montana St.BSky0.000.2420.0026.07-0.00-0.11
Idaho St.BSky0.510.2411.1128.88-0.39-0.10
CaliforniaP120.310.2490.9169.030.260.09
WashingtonP120.530.23100.0075.440.530.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.2336.3637.85-0.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.310.2144.4455.37-0.030.02
Washington St.P120.840.2140.0028.13-0.17-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.310.2154.5557.570.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2016.6733.39-0.00-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.000.1837.5044.33-0.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1814.2929.82-0.00-0.07
PepperdineWCC0.000.1866.6755.670.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.1862.5058.080.060.03
SeattleWAC0.620.1833.3343.83-0.21-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.280.1837.5046.38-0.07-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1837.5041.94-0.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1736.3650.71-0.000.00
ArizonaP120.250.17100.0082.630.250.11
IdahoBSky0.000.1537.5052.01-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1536.3648.28-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1544.4436.80-0.00-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1570.0051.040.000.00
Texas TechB120.280.1590.0055.360.220.02
BYUWCC0.000.1570.0068.340.000.05
Oral RobertsSum0.280.1540.0044.08-0.06-0.02
USCP120.000.1460.0036.410.00-0.04
UtahP120.000.1480.0080.520.000.09
North DakotaBSky0.000.1225.0033.40-0.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.590.1250.0054.170.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1225.0023.40-0.00-0.06
The CitadelSC0.000.1214.2932.16-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.310.1220.0040.93-0.19-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.310.120.0011.94-0.31-0.09
StetsonASun0.310.1210.0027.17-0.25-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1277.7872.060.000.05
South DakotaSum0.000.1227.2738.30-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1218.1822.49-0.00-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.000.1250.0043.310.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1136.3645.11-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1133.3346.17-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0960.0076.250.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.310.0950.0037.570.00-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0950.0042.090.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0942.8641.81-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0975.0061.480.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.280.0955.5652.610.030.00
WoffordSC0.000.0977.7875.550.000.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.310.0955.5655.280.030.01
Western IllinoisSum0.280.0937.5031.88-0.07-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0960.0061.600.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0922.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.230.0990.9183.090.190.06
PrincetonIvy0.250.0933.3341.02-0.08-0.02
Seton HallBE0.280.0990.0067.380.220.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0987.5085.480.000.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.090.0017.69-0.00-0.06
Arizona St.P120.000.0954.5548.490.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.310.0972.7375.710.140.04
StanfordP120.230.0966.6758.320.080.01
RiceCUSA0.280.0916.6726.98-0.19-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0970.0059.660.000.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0930.0038.57-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0942.8637.83-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.310.090.0011.59-0.31-0.07
IUPUISum0.310.0927.2728.86-0.14-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0942.8626.99-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0870.0061.320.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0657.1470.520.000.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.31-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0025.85-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.60-0.00-0.05
RadfordBSth0.000.0655.5658.650.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.71-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0677.7868.780.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0690.9190.540.000.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.009.06-0.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0614.2915.15-0.00-0.04
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3334.04-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0660.0043.890.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0618.1819.46-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.310.0677.7870.160.170.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.470.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0630.0029.75-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0675.0058.760.000.01
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7856.220.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0654.5544.930.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0666.6754.480.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.840.000.05
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0662.5059.050.070.01
KansasB120.310.0690.0070.680.250.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0671.4363.770.000.02
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.81-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.190.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0672.7367.520.000.02
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0916.15-0.00-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.81-0.00-0.02
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3330.28-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.33-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.450.0633.3334.30-0.15-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0633.3340.63-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.84-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0620.0035.33-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0637.5035.74-0.00-0.02
VMISC0.280.0633.3338.93-0.09-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.310.0690.0082.310.250.04
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.64-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0642.8648.87-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0625.0037.03-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0666.6742.600.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0670.0064.680.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0633.3330.21-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.310.0675.0077.010.160.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0637.5049.31-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0670.0051.780.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0031.89-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.060.000.00
TroySB0.000.0633.3339.85-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5655.710.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0681.8273.180.000.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.580.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0354.5541.980.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.600.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0314.2944.44-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0325.0044.27-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0360.0057.890.000.01
DavidsonA100.310.0388.8977.320.240.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0330.0031.48-0.12-0.01
AuburnSEC0.280.0350.0039.790.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0360.0034.160.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.280.0322.2235.90-0.15-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.0340.0043.04-0.06-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.280.0375.0066.220.140.01
LipscombASun0.280.0322.2238.44-0.15-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0340.0046.19-0.06-0.00
TulsaAmer0.280.0360.0056.620.060.00
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.69-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0027.67-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.240.000.01
BelmontOVC0.230.0363.6464.880.060.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.280.0318.1830.76-0.18-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5745.89-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0354.5564.070.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.230.030.0014.00-0.23-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.280.0350.0046.690.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4450.41-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8649.02-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.250.0380.0076.450.150.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.280.0333.3328.79-0.09-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0344.4437.40-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.230.0320.0046.47-0.14-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0043.160.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.250.0320.0045.74-0.15-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0355.5646.290.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0036.69-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00
XavierBE0.250.0372.7367.590.110.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0340.0055.01-0.000.00
Iowa St.B120.310.0390.0065.480.250.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6737.21-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.310.0327.2732.45-0.14-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0355.5673.740.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0363.6456.430.000.00