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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Colorado St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:29.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:112
Current Record:26-6
Expected Record:26-6
Current Conf Record:14-6
Expected Conf Record:14-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-629.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Montana (144.0)BSkyH83-66W100%0.0
11-21Georgia St. (53.0)SBH80-70W100%0.0
11-23Mercer (212.0)SCH75-62W100%0.0
11-26Missouri St. (246.0)MVCN76-61W100%0.0
11-28Pacific (241.0)WCCN75-64W100%0.0
11-29UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWN63-65W100%0.0
12-3UTEP (78.0)CUSAH65-62W100%0.0
12-7Northern Colorado (245.0)BSkyH66-58W100%0.0
12-10Colorado (116.0)P12A60-62W100%0.0
12-19Denver (232.0)SumA84-85W100%0.0
12-22Charleston Southern (164.0)BSthH75-54W100%0.0
12-27New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA57-58W100%0.0
12-31Boise St. (40.0)MWCH71-65W100%0.0
1-3New Mexico (172.0)MWCA66-53L0%0.0
1-7Wyoming (71.0)MWCH54-60L0%0.0
1-10Air Force (240.0)MWCA87-92W100%0.0
1-14Nevada (306.0)MWCH98-42W100%0.0
1-17San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA41-70W100%0.0
1-24San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH79-73W100%0.0
1-27Boise St. (40.0)MWCA82-78L0%0.0
1-31Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH80-57W100%0.0
2-4Wyoming (71.0)MWCA59-48L0%0.0
2-7UNLV (114.0)MWCH83-82W100%0.0
2-10New Mexico (172.0)MWCH70-59W100%0.0
2-14San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA72-63L0%0.0
2-18Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA73-81W100%0.0
2-21Air Force (240.0)MWCH66-53W100%0.0
2-25San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH72-56W100%0.0
3-4Nevada (306.0)MWCA62-78W100%0.0
3-7Utah St. (143.0)MWCA70-75W100%0.0
3-12Fresno St. (182.0)MWCN71-59W100%0.0
3-13San Diego St. (26.0)MWCN43-56L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Colorado St.MWC26.4426.4483.1083.1017.5017.50
San Diego St.MWC5.565.5676.6776.672.972.97
Fresno St.MWC5.515.5148.1548.15-0.20-0.20
WyomingMWC4.204.2070.0070.001.681.68
Boise St.MWC4.084.0875.8675.862.112.11
New MexicoMWC4.044.0448.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Air ForceMWC4.044.0444.4444.44-0.45-0.45
NevadaMWC3.993.9925.9325.93-1.92-1.92
San Jose St.MWC3.923.920.000.00-3.92-3.92
UNLVMWC2.592.5954.8454.840.250.25
Utah St.MWC2.512.5158.6258.620.430.43
New Mexico St.WAC1.791.7970.0070.000.720.72
PacificWCC1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
Northern ColoradoBSky1.711.7148.1548.15-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP121.691.6948.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky1.671.6762.0762.070.400.40
MercerSC1.621.6253.3353.330.110.11
UTEPCUSA1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
DenverSum1.611.6141.3841.38-0.28-0.28
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.591.5958.6258.620.270.27
Charleston SouthernBSth1.561.5661.5461.540.360.36
Georgia St.SB1.561.5674.1974.190.760.76
Missouri St.MVC1.561.5632.1432.14-0.56-0.56
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.250.2536.6736.67-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.230.2354.5554.550.020.02
WashingtonP120.230.2351.6151.610.010.01
UC DavisBW0.220.2279.3179.310.130.13
Northern ArizonaBSky0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.210.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2117.8617.86-0.14-0.14
Cal PolyBW0.210.2140.7440.74-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.210.2120.6920.69-0.12-0.12
San DiegoWCC0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.190.1939.2939.29-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.170.1791.1891.180.140.14
Texas TechB120.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
UtahP120.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
IdahoBSky0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
USCP120.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
The CitadelSC0.100.1029.6329.63-0.04-0.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
Western CarolinaSC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.106.906.90-0.09-0.09
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
MarshallCUSA0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
IUPUISum0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
VMISC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.050.05
StanfordP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0720.6920.69-0.04-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
PittsburghACC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CampbellBSth0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0693.9493.940.050.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0565.5265.520.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0258.3358.330.000.00
Iowa St.B120.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
LipscombASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.020.0272.4172.410.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
XavierBE0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01