live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:243.0
Current RPI:243
Expected SOS:269
Current SOS:269
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:200
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17243.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Idaho (209.0)BSkyH57-65L0%0.0
11-21St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N68-65W100%0.0
11-22Pepperdine (245.0)WCCN65-66L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (216.0)MACN79-91W100%0.0
11-29Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA87-89W100%0.0
12-3Tulsa (134.0)AmerH72-62W100%0.0
12-8Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH67-52W100%0.0
12-10Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH70-59W100%0.0
12-14Northern Arizona (335.0)BSkyA67-72W100%0.0
12-19Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA63-48L0%0.0
12-21Florida (10.0)SECA94-71L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH79-75W100%0.0
1-2Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH52-69L0%0.0
1-7Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA68-76W100%0.0
1-9Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA66-63L0%0.0
1-14Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH72-77L0%0.0
1-21South Alabama (231.0)SBH73-56W100%0.0
1-23Troy (147.0)SBH69-78L0%0.0
1-28Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA88-82L0%0.0
1-30Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA68-52L0%0.0
2-4Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH75-82L0%0.0
2-6Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH69-62W100%0.0
2-11Texas St. (179.0)SBA56-49L0%0.0
2-13UT Arlington (45.0)SBA71-55L0%0.0
2-17Arkansas St. (119.0)SBA67-58L0%0.0
2-25Georgia St. (104.0)SBH54-71L0%0.0
2-27Georgia Southern (121.0)SBH56-54W100%0.0
3-2South Alabama (231.0)SBA57-62W100%0.0
3-4Troy (147.0)SBA57-54L0%0.0
3-8Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBN78-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Little RockSB26.3526.3542.7542.75-3.82-3.82
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.715.7157.1457.140.820.82
Arkansas St.SB4.254.2558.6258.620.730.73
TroySB4.164.1656.2556.250.520.52
Louisiana MonroeSB4.124.1220.6920.69-2.41-2.41
Coastal CarolinaSB4.104.1041.3841.38-0.71-0.71
South AlabamaSB4.064.0642.8642.86-0.58-0.58
Appalachian St.SB4.064.0626.9226.92-1.87-1.87
Central ArkansasSlnd3.393.3926.6726.67-1.58-1.58
Texas St.SB2.692.6956.6756.670.360.36
Georgia St.SB2.662.6658.6258.620.460.46
UT ArlingtonSB2.612.6173.3373.331.221.22
Georgia SouthernSB2.582.5855.1755.170.270.27
PepperdineWCC1.801.8024.1424.14-0.93-0.93
Central MichiganMAC1.751.7548.2848.28-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA101.751.7564.5264.520.510.51
Northern ArizonaBSky1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
TulsaAmer1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
FloridaSEC1.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
Oral RobertsSum1.691.6918.5218.52-1.07-1.07
ChattanoogaSC0.210.2158.6258.620.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.210.2160.7160.710.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.190.1972.7372.730.090.09
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.180.1851.7251.720.010.01
MontanaBSky0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1612.9012.90-0.12-0.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1619.2319.23-0.10-0.10
Northwestern St.Slnd0.160.1636.0036.00-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1544.4444.44-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
ArmyPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
BYUWCC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
MassachusettsA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
TulaneAmer0.110.1119.3519.35-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1036.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
SeattleWAC0.080.0837.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0577.7877.780.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MercerSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02