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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:242.8
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:254
Current SOS:285
Current Record:11-14
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:4-10
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:321



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14209.62.00%
14-15223.014.52%
13-16236.735.04%
12-17250.235.75%
11-18267.012.68%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Idaho (234.9)BSkyH57-65L0%0.0
11-21St. Bonaventure (93.3)A10N68-65W100%0.0
11-22Pepperdine (228.0)WCCN65-66L0%0.0
11-23Central Michigan (195.9)MACN79-91W100%0.0
11-29Central Arkansas (289.7)SlndA87-89W100%0.0
12-3Tulsa (125.5)AmerH72-62W100%0.0
12-8Arkansas Pine Bluff (340.5)SWACH67-52W100%0.0
12-10Central Arkansas (289.7)SlndH70-59W100%0.0
12-14Northern Arizona (339.2)BSkyA67-72W100%0.0
12-19Oral Roberts (290.9)SumA63-48L0%0.0
12-21Florida (5.1)SECA94-71L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (304.5)SBH79-75W100%0.0
1-2Louisiana Lafayette (145.0)SBH52-69L0%0.0
1-7Appalachian St. (278.6)SBA68-76W100%0.0
1-9Coastal Carolina (160.9)SBA66-63L0%0.0
1-14Arkansas St. (74.9)SBH72-77L0%0.0
1-21South Alabama (217.8)SBH73-56W100%0.0
1-23Troy (180.5)SBH69-78L0%0.0
1-28Louisiana Lafayette (145.0)SBA88-82L0%0.0
1-30Louisiana Monroe (304.5)SBA68-52L0%0.0
2-4Coastal Carolina (160.9)SBH75-82L0%0.0
2-6Appalachian St. (278.6)SBH69-62W100%0.0
2-11Texas St. (210.2)SBA56-49L0%0.0
2-13UT Arlington (36.5)SBA71-55L0%0.0
2-17Arkansas St. (74.9)SBA67-58L0%0.0
2-25Georgia St. (120.9)SBH0-041%-2.5
2-27Georgia Southern (117.9)SBH0-050%0.0
3-2South Alabama (217.8)SBA0-040%-2.7
3-4Troy (180.5)SBA0-028%-6.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Little RockSB26.4326.3343.3642.76-3.51-3.81
Arkansas St.SB4.874.3466.6766.361.621.42
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.514.1952.1752.640.200.22
Coastal CarolinaSB4.484.1741.6743.61-0.75-0.53
TroySB2.564.1752.0050.450.100.04
Louisiana MonroeSB4.474.1617.3919.65-2.92-2.53
South AlabamaSB2.564.1645.8343.72-0.21-0.52
Appalachian St.SB4.474.1627.2729.99-2.03-1.66
Central ArkansasSlnd4.083.5129.6330.11-1.66-1.39
Texas St.SB2.752.6552.1751.480.120.08
Georgia SouthernSB0.882.6257.6955.570.140.29
UT ArlingtonSB2.722.6275.0075.731.361.35
Georgia St.SB0.882.6260.0059.400.180.49
PepperdineWCC2.161.8426.9225.86-0.99-0.89
St. BonaventureA102.111.8165.3865.570.650.56
Central MichiganMAC2.111.8156.0053.770.250.14
Northern ArizonaBSky2.041.7924.0023.93-1.06-0.93
TulsaAmer2.081.7948.0049.45-0.08-0.02
IdahoBSky2.041.7845.4548.88-0.19-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.041.7523.0825.10-1.10-0.87
FloridaSEC2.041.7581.4879.961.281.05
Oral RobertsSum2.041.7518.5218.52-1.28-1.10
ChattanoogaSC0.300.2365.3866.650.090.08
New OrleansSlnd0.260.2059.0960.070.050.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.190.2052.1753.700.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.240.1846.1546.03-0.02-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.200.1812.0013.36-0.15-0.13
MinnesotaB100.200.1875.0073.470.100.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1746.1546.96-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.1734.7833.41-0.07-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1727.2728.66-0.07-0.07
MontanaBSky0.200.1550.0050.340.000.00
DenverSum0.150.1557.1456.680.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.190.1559.2662.730.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.1522.7323.17-0.10-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.154.005.36-0.10-0.13
AlabamaSEC0.190.1461.5459.750.040.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1428.0028.91-0.07-0.06
ArmyPat0.180.1439.2938.46-0.04-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.160.1342.8643.32-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.160.1225.0026.38-0.08-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.120.1260.8760.770.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1264.0065.600.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.120.1240.9144.15-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1265.3864.780.050.04
BYUWCC0.150.1265.5264.140.050.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.160.1225.9326.05-0.08-0.06
AuburnSEC0.110.1260.7159.670.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.1260.7159.870.020.02
HawaiiBW0.120.1248.0047.45-0.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.1273.0873.880.030.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.1237.5040.16-0.03-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1251.8551.270.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.1264.2964.460.020.03
GeorgiaSEC0.150.1253.8554.930.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1242.3143.63-0.02-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.1126.9225.66-0.04-0.06
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1166.6765.160.050.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.140.1136.3636.47-0.04-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1148.1548.38-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0951.7249.530.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.080.0953.8552.600.010.00
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0916.0016.87-0.06-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.120.0941.6742.37-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.120.0978.5776.170.070.05
TennesseeSEC0.120.0951.8552.250.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.120.0948.0047.41-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0985.1985.420.030.06
North DakotaBSky0.120.0963.6464.970.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.0929.1731.48-0.05-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0934.7836.95-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.040.0916.0018.13-0.03-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.0946.1546.35-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0988.8989.350.060.07
TexasB120.120.0935.7134.84-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.040.0948.1547.57-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.120.0930.7734.71-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.0914.8115.43-0.08-0.06
TulaneAmer0.080.0918.5218.47-0.05-0.06
BuffaloMAC0.110.0950.0050.440.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.110.0940.7440.12-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0950.0049.560.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.120.0939.1337.81-0.03-0.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0935.7134.80-0.02-0.03
VCUA100.120.0982.1479.370.080.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.0958.3359.220.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.110.09100.0099.810.110.09
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0912.0011.80-0.06-0.07
USCP120.080.0977.7875.870.040.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.110.0960.8762.050.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.0959.2659.740.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0951.8553.220.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0975.0071.920.040.04
HamptonMEAC0.080.0641.6743.49-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.080.0630.0029.22-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0622.2222.75-0.05-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.070.0660.0060.590.010.01
IUPUISum0.070.0638.4639.08-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0651.8551.810.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0662.9662.810.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0626.0925.92-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.080.0656.0055.930.010.01
RichmondA100.070.0659.2659.930.010.01
AkronMAC0.040.0677.7876.390.020.03
Ball St.MAC0.080.0662.9661.340.020.01
BryantNEC0.080.0635.7137.15-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0671.4372.700.030.03
ColoradoP120.080.0655.5655.660.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0625.9327.44-0.04-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0637.5039.90-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0657.6958.300.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0650.0049.370.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0669.2370.270.030.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0630.7729.92-0.03-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0675.0077.120.040.03
PacificWCC0.070.0632.1432.21-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0629.6329.44-0.03-0.02
SamfordSC0.040.0655.5656.300.000.01
Southern MissCUSA0.040.0624.0022.54-0.02-0.03
StetsonASun0.040.0629.6328.76-0.02-0.03
ToledoMAC0.040.0648.1549.49-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0674.0773.870.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0657.1455.800.010.01
WoffordSC0.080.0644.4443.90-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.040.0632.1431.91-0.01-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0651.8550.690.000.00
OklahomaB120.070.0633.3333.59-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.080.0644.4444.02-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.070.0680.0079.920.040.03
MercerSC0.040.0640.7440.78-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0652.1749.960.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0688.8987.450.060.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0625.0026.71-0.04-0.03
CornellIvy0.040.0625.0025.31-0.02-0.03
DaytonA100.070.0680.7779.440.050.03
DuquesneA100.040.0635.7134.58-0.01-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0646.4343.89-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0651.8551.210.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.080.0650.0049.130.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0670.3769.130.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0682.1481.630.050.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0637.5042.38-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.080.0659.2660.160.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0666.6763.170.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0614.2918.10-0.03-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0637.0438.57-0.02-0.01
Saint LouisA100.070.0632.1431.02-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0648.2848.54-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.040.0685.7185.540.030.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0648.0047.16-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.080.0659.2657.620.010.01
UCFAmer0.080.0664.2963.820.020.02
WyomingMWC0.040.0653.8553.510.000.00
Arizona St.P120.070.0646.4344.09-0.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0678.5777.620.040.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0642.8645.36-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0631.8233.09-0.03-0.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0682.1481.760.020.04
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0052.050.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0664.2963.090.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0644.0046.00-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0670.3770.540.030.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0640.7442.17-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0653.5751.920.000.00
WisconsinB100.070.0681.4880.840.040.03
San Jose St.MWC0.040.0350.0046.860.00-0.00
StanfordP120.040.0350.0047.370.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.040.0342.3139.94-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0381.4878.550.020.02
CreightonBE0.040.0377.7875.390.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0329.6331.16-0.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0330.4331.13-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0357.1457.070.010.00
Michigan St.B100.040.0359.2657.930.010.00
Missouri St.MVC0.040.0351.7250.330.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0329.6330.60-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.040.0374.0773.500.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0361.5462.870.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0382.1480.780.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.040.0328.0028.37-0.02-0.01
UTSACUSA0.040.0336.0035.97-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.9662.450.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0334.4834.78-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.040.0325.0027.75-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0320.0020.88-0.00-0.02
IllinoisB100.040.0355.5655.020.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.040.0355.5655.100.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0340.7442.89-0.01-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0351.7253.710.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.040.0325.0025.84-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.040.0368.0068.550.010.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0338.4640.55-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0333.3334.37-0.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0337.0436.81-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.040.0352.0053.050.000.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0376.0077.350.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0369.5771.400.020.01
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0358.6258.690.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0350.0049.270.00-0.00
George MasonA100.040.0362.9661.470.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0365.3865.420.010.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0342.8642.57-0.01-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.040.0344.4443.17-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.040.0353.8554.810.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.040.0357.1456.440.010.00
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0331.0331.60-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0314.2913.58-0.03-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.040.0366.6766.780.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0357.6958.100.010.00
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0342.3143.88-0.01-0.00
TempleAmer0.040.0348.2850.61-0.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0357.6956.380.010.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.040.0381.4881.510.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.040.0340.0041.64-0.01-0.00
WashingtonP120.040.0333.3332.52-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0386.2186.330.030.02
Florida St.ACC0.040.0378.5776.210.020.01
LSUSEC0.040.0333.3331.80-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0370.3767.240.010.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0325.9325.77-0.02-0.01
North FloridaASun0.040.0330.7732.11-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0362.9661.760.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0351.8551.660.000.00