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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:293.4
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:181
Current SOS:166
Current Record:4-14
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:2-5
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-9
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:300
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16203.70.07%
12-17219.70.26%
11-18234.71.38%
10-19250.65.44%
9-20267.313.31%
8-21283.722.62%
7-22299.526.68%
6-23313.720.29%
5-24325.48.46%
4-25334.41.48%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Memphis (119.3)AmerA70-62L0%0.0
11-18Grand Canyon (147.4)WACA76-51L0%0.0
11-20San Diego (141.9)WCCA66-52L0%0.0
11-25Robert Morris (151.7)NECH64-78L0%0.0
11-26Norfolk St. (292.5)MEACH70-55W100%0.0
11-29Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH71-65W100%0.0
12-2Oral Roberts (220.4)SumH66-74L0%0.0
12-9Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndA69-54L0%0.0
12-13Bradley (123.9)MVCA86-46L0%0.0
12-15Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndA57-55L0%0.0
12-20Mississippi St. (111.1)SECA64-48L0%0.0
12-29Louisiana Lafayette (62.4)SBH63-77L0%0.0
12-31Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBH71-62W100%0.0
1-4Georgia St. (135.6)SBA73-64L0%0.0
1-6Georgia Southern (118.9)SBA72-69L0%0.0
1-11UT Arlington (120.5)SBH77-65W100%0.0
1-13Texas St. (217.2)SBH70-72L0%0.0
1-20Arkansas St. (290.5)SBH62-70L0%0.0
1-25Appalachian St. (266.2)SBA0-032%-5.2
1-27Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBA0-023%-8.4
2-1Georgia Southern (118.9)SBH0-029%-6.2
2-3Georgia St. (135.6)SBH0-027%-6.9
2-8South Alabama (234.0)SBA0-029%-6.3
2-10Troy (207.6)SBA0-018%-10.3
2-17Arkansas St. (290.5)SBA0-034%-4.5
2-22Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBH0-043%-2.0
2-24Appalachian St. (266.2)SBH0-054%1.2
3-1Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBA0-039%-3.0
3-3Louisiana Lafayette (62.4)SBA0-06%-17.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Little RockSB26.4926.3616.2223.50-17.90-13.97
Arkansas St.SB3.244.3023.5327.29-1.72-1.95
Georgia SouthernSB3.004.2064.7163.870.881.17
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.094.1882.3580.172.002.52
Coastal CarolinaSB0.474.1727.7835.88-0.21-1.18
Georgia St.SB2.934.1764.7163.970.861.17
Louisiana MonroeSB3.074.1728.5728.93-1.32-1.76
Appalachian St.SB0.474.1433.3335.71-0.16-1.18
Central ArkansasSlnd5.643.5144.4449.22-0.63-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.302.6450.0044.990.00-0.26
UT ArlingtonSB3.022.6463.1664.170.800.75
Texas St.SB3.022.6455.5648.430.34-0.08
TroySB0.302.5835.2941.29-0.09-0.45
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.921.8440.0047.14-0.58-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC3.011.8155.0059.080.300.33
Grand CanyonWAC3.001.8168.4270.211.110.73
San DiegoWCC3.001.8161.1156.020.670.22
Norfolk St.MEAC2.991.8120.0038.12-1.79-0.43
BradleyMVC2.851.7863.1656.420.750.23
MemphisAmer2.781.7263.1657.110.730.25
Mississippi St.SEC2.781.7270.5957.521.140.26
Oral RobertsSum2.781.7226.3229.93-1.32-0.69
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.2780.0078.860.100.16
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.310.2752.9455.040.020.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.380.2752.9452.620.020.01
LamarSlnd0.230.2450.0054.850.000.02
MississippiSEC0.390.2452.6345.860.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.180.217.1414.82-0.15-0.15
New OrleansSlnd0.290.2137.5045.22-0.07-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.220.2150.0051.480.000.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.1820.0041.760.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1827.7834.50-0.07-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1829.4133.22-0.06-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.080.1835.0026.14-0.02-0.08
Houston BaptistSlnd0.160.155.8819.37-0.14-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.300.157.6923.28-0.25-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.1528.5731.27-0.03-0.06
Missouri St.MVC0.150.1570.0068.420.060.05
TulsaAmer0.350.1555.0053.290.030.01
TulaneAmer0.150.1463.1657.900.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1225.0028.02-0.07-0.05
Wake ForestACC0.080.1244.4441.15-0.01-0.02
UTSACUSA0.140.1241.1839.65-0.03-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1261.1151.900.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.1227.7831.67-0.10-0.04
UMKCWAC0.150.1221.0524.71-0.08-0.06
RiceCUSA0.220.1211.1117.69-0.17-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.210.1245.0045.02-0.02-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.220.1252.6347.360.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.210.1250.0048.740.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.280.1123.5328.70-0.15-0.05
AlabamaSEC0.220.1168.4258.990.080.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1036.8444.12-0.04-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1070.0068.220.070.03
SMUAmer0.090.0970.0070.630.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0966.6765.620.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.0944.4450.31-0.020.00
ArkansasSEC0.150.0968.4264.200.050.03
MontanaBSky0.150.0970.5973.140.060.04
PepperdineWCC0.140.0910.5318.34-0.11-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0933.3332.96-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0966.6766.010.030.03
VermontAE0.070.0973.6877.120.030.05
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0938.8935.35-0.02-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0977.7879.160.040.05
HowardMEAC0.080.0910.5327.31-0.06-0.04
BaylorB120.230.0961.1156.090.050.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.230.097.6920.09-0.19-0.05
Ohio St.B100.070.0980.9576.520.040.05
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.0910.0019.62-0.12-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0941.1838.46-0.01-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.0983.3384.230.100.06
PacificWCC0.150.0945.0044.46-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.160.0961.1153.160.030.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.160.0977.7871.650.090.04
BYUWCC0.140.0980.9576.230.090.05
Chicago St.WAC0.140.090.003.12-0.14-0.08
DaytonA100.150.0947.3750.95-0.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.0927.7829.11-0.06-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.150.0926.3231.52-0.07-0.03
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0978.9577.360.040.05
Northern IowaMVC0.140.0947.0652.51-0.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.150.0889.4785.520.120.06
BryantNEC0.140.089.5217.08-0.11-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0738.8943.43-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.090.0773.6865.590.040.02
DenverSum0.070.0633.3336.47-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.070.0652.6351.700.000.00
South DakotaSum0.070.0673.6872.360.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.970.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0642.8635.25-0.01-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0647.0644.910.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0650.0052.440.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0658.8261.440.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.009.150.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.0663.1666.880.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0661.1147.260.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0625.0028.250.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0633.3334.110.00-0.02
VCUA100.000.0660.0059.690.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0652.9452.230.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0668.7563.620.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.140.0657.8966.250.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0630.0036.48-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0629.4139.62-0.03-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.160.0643.7554.09-0.020.00
AuburnSEC0.160.0689.4777.030.130.03
KentuckySEC0.000.0673.6867.950.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.160.0657.1453.220.020.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.080.0610.5316.75-0.06-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.04-0.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0684.2173.210.050.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0620.0023.36-0.05-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0646.6746.98-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0638.8946.03-0.02-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0645.0041.35-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0680.9583.260.000.04
IndianaB100.080.0657.8950.680.010.00
IowaB100.080.0647.6244.03-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0652.9457.320.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0652.6355.290.000.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.150.0627.7827.30-0.06-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0621.0539.47-0.04-0.01
RichmondA100.080.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0690.4888.940.060.05
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0663.1666.000.020.02
WyomingMWC0.080.0661.1156.830.020.01
UABCUSA0.070.0661.1164.130.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0629.4133.94-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.140.0644.4446.64-0.02-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.140.0658.8262.830.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0660.0060.340.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.140.0677.7869.360.080.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.0612.5025.47-0.10-0.03
CaliforniaP120.140.0636.8431.12-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.070.0647.3745.87-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0644.4446.100.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.02
OregonP120.140.0665.0063.830.040.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0652.6350.250.000.00
UCLAP120.140.0665.0062.040.040.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0650.0051.360.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0636.8435.55-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0652.3848.520.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0652.6347.390.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0642.1132.480.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0623.5332.62-0.04-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0640.0042.57-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0642.1144.970.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0630.0033.49-0.03-0.02
SienaMAAC0.140.0630.0031.69-0.05-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0633.3335.19-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0652.9459.250.000.01
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.880.030.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0664.7164.540.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0362.5058.700.020.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0364.7166.850.030.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0373.6862.720.030.01
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.640.020.00
OaklandHorz0.070.0361.9065.160.020.01
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0368.4254.090.030.00
Penn St.B100.070.0361.9055.770.020.00
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.280.030.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0344.4445.980.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0358.8249.760.02-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.039.5217.94-0.07-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.090.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0368.7563.960.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0342.1145.970.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.090.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0315.7920.920.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0355.5656.710.010.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0329.4134.760.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0378.9576.760.050.02
Stony BrookAE0.090.0338.8946.68-0.02-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.0378.9576.970.040.02
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0345.0041.34-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.570.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0340.0042.720.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.070.0317.6517.23-0.04-0.02
MaineAE0.000.0310.5314.860.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.030.0010.65-0.07-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0311.1115.30-0.06-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0344.4448.910.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.81-0.06-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0336.8432.790.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0347.3742.18-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3336.920.00-0.01
Texas TechB120.000.0378.9571.810.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.070.0317.6523.89-0.04-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.610.030.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0316.6724.29-0.05-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.070.0323.5328.21-0.04-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.690.030.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0373.6871.550.040.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6755.930.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0325.0027.94-0.04-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.070.0327.7829.84-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0331.5835.15-0.03-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0342.1143.50-0.01-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.0372.2268.920.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.980.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00
AlbanyAE0.070.0370.0068.050.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0330.0030.99-0.03-0.01
DuquesneA100.070.0370.0058.100.030.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0378.9572.990.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.070.0322.2228.67-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.070.0344.4454.89-0.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0368.4257.770.020.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.070.0366.6773.240.020.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.370.020.01
SamfordSC0.070.0327.7832.66-0.03-0.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.730.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01