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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Little Rock

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:252.9
Current RPI:306
Expected SOS:204
Current SOS:237
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:296



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1095.70.06%
18-11112.40.17%
17-12135.20.61%
16-13153.31.30%
15-14176.13.41%
14-15194.46.54%
13-16215.111.01%
12-17233.614.08%
11-18251.917.21%
10-19269.315.53%
9-20284.913.17%
8-21299.09.14%
7-22310.44.59%
6-23321.62.24%
5-24330.00.69%
4-25335.30.18%
3-26343.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Little Rock.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Memphis (137.0)AmerA70-62L0%0.0
11-18Grand Canyon (135.1)WACA76-51L0%0.0
11-20San Diego (158.1)WCCA0-023%-9.0
11-25Robert Morris (288.7)NECH0-072%7.0
11-26Norfolk St. (285.6)MEACH0-073%7.3
11-29Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-074%7.6
12-2Oral Roberts (254.8)SumH0-064%4.4
12-9Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndA0-055%1.6
12-13Bradley (169.6)MVCA0-024%-8.4
12-15Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndA0-039%-3.2
12-20Mississippi St. (134.2)SECA0-011%-14.4
12-29Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBH0-036%-4.3
12-31Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBH0-051%0.3
1-4Georgia St. (96.0)SBA0-015%-12.5
1-6Georgia Southern (105.3)SBA0-017%-11.3
1-11UT Arlington (69.5)SBH0-024%-8.5
1-13Texas St. (221.0)SBH0-050%0.1
1-20Arkansas St. (221.5)SBH0-053%0.8
1-25Appalachian St. (278.0)SBA0-045%-1.4
1-27Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBA0-028%-7.0
2-1Georgia Southern (105.3)SBH0-033%-5.3
2-3Georgia St. (96.0)SBH0-029%-6.5
2-8South Alabama (232.0)SBA0-034%-5.1
2-10Troy (191.8)SBA0-027%-7.3
2-17Arkansas St. (221.5)SBA0-033%-5.2
2-22Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBH0-047%-1.0
2-24Appalachian St. (278.0)SBH0-065%4.6
3-1Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBA0-032%-5.7
3-3Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBA0-020%-10.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Little Rock's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Little Rock's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Little Rock.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Little RockSB35.4226.390.0037.70-35.42-6.49
Arkansas St.SB0.004.3333.3340.900.00-0.79
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.22100.0063.640.001.15
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.1950.0058.150.000.68
Appalachian St.SB0.004.190.0027.480.00-1.89
Georgia St.SB0.004.1950.0064.170.001.19
Coastal CarolinaSB0.004.1933.3346.460.00-0.30
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.1933.3345.890.00-0.34
Central ArkansasSlnd0.003.520.0035.610.00-1.01
TroySB0.002.6733.3345.470.00-0.24
Texas St.SB0.002.6733.3345.960.00-0.22
UT ArlingtonSB0.002.67100.0071.400.001.14
South AlabamaSB0.002.6633.3345.010.00-0.27
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.840.0046.620.00-0.12
Robert MorrisNEC4.171.810.0036.33-4.17-0.50
Grand CanyonWAC25.001.81100.0074.2425.000.88
San DiegoWCC0.001.81100.0052.080.000.08
Norfolk St.MEAC0.001.810.0043.430.00-0.24
BradleyMVC0.001.7975.0047.800.00-0.08
MemphisAmer25.001.720.0049.03-25.00-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.72100.0049.780.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.001.720.0022.750.00-0.94
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.280.0044.130.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.28100.0069.350.000.11
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.270.0036.830.00-0.07
LamarSlnd0.000.25100.0065.580.000.08
MississippiSEC0.000.25100.0053.790.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.220.0022.920.00-0.12
New OrleansSlnd0.000.210.0042.810.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.2150.0043.710.00-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.190.0025.140.00-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.190.0042.670.00-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.190.0048.070.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.1866.6728.760.00-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1666.6763.230.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.160.0038.960.00-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.160.0046.000.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.160.0023.170.00-0.08
TulaneAmer0.000.15100.0054.140.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1550.0048.690.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.1325.0035.000.00-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.130.0035.760.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1233.3338.350.00-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1275.0058.930.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.1233.3336.410.00-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0034.040.00-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.12100.0051.900.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1250.0035.330.00-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1266.6756.400.000.01
AlabamaSEC6.250.12100.0061.326.250.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1133.3336.610.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.100.0032.770.00-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1050.0068.280.000.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1033.3353.520.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0950.0060.130.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.09100.0076.260.000.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0060.430.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0933.3357.840.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0966.6774.120.000.05
BaylorB120.000.09100.0061.110.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.090.0029.630.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0071.180.000.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.090.0021.380.00-0.05
LSUSEC0.000.09100.0046.080.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0966.6762.150.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.090.0046.080.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.09100.0057.270.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.09100.0059.870.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC4.170.090.0018.40-4.17-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.090.0034.600.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0966.6767.320.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.090.007.670.00-0.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0950.0034.730.00-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0950.0069.320.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0966.6763.220.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.090.0033.520.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0925.0050.070.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.09100.0082.290.000.06
CincinnatiAmer0.000.08100.0082.350.000.05
BryantNEC0.000.080.0030.230.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.070.0038.100.00-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0766.6756.330.000.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.070.0044.500.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0766.6767.630.000.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0766.6761.500.000.02
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.150.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.07100.0038.710.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6768.790.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0035.450.00-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0038.990.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0031.810.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3360.630.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.060.0021.590.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0633.3341.010.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0633.3335.150.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.060.0049.250.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0666.6750.670.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3333.580.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0053.280.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0032.130.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0633.3341.220.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.060.0029.710.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0088.360.000.05
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0650.0062.630.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.060.0042.340.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.06100.0059.250.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
ValparaisoMVC0.000.06100.0059.760.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0675.0071.830.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6749.990.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0625.0040.490.00-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.06100.0056.360.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.060.0044.950.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0625.0045.730.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0625.0047.800.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.060.0037.310.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.060.0030.910.00-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0633.3359.680.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.06100.0061.780.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.0666.6749.940.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.030.0048.610.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.03100.0071.700.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0366.6765.630.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0350.0051.840.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0366.6748.280.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0375.0072.950.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.030.0047.400.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.03100.0044.740.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.03100.0066.490.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3338.050.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.0366.6742.170.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.03100.0059.240.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.000.030.0032.200.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0018.970.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0366.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.030.0024.440.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.030.0021.010.00-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0036.490.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0054.590.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0333.3350.220.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.180.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.03100.0080.230.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.030.0044.830.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0036.690.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.03100.0048.350.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0333.3339.360.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.03100.0047.670.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.000.030.0038.210.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.03100.0070.960.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0366.6755.210.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3347.970.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.03100.0056.600.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01