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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:176.2
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:171
Current SOS:163
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:261



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-755.00.04%
21-873.00.16%
20-987.00.52%
19-1099.72.09%
18-11116.35.21%
17-12133.710.88%
16-13152.116.31%
15-14171.120.09%
14-15190.418.86%
13-16210.413.84%
12-17231.07.81%
11-18250.23.12%
10-19267.60.84%
9-20283.80.16%
8-21297.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Weber St. (246.4)BSkyH72-61W100%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (70.2)MVCA55-60W100%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (197.4)WCCH60-54W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (214.6)SECA71-63L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (161.6)BWA77-70L0%0.0
12-2BYU (56.2)WCCH81-91L0%0.0
12-7USC (189.1)P12A89-84L0%0.0
12-13Utah Valley (280.5)WACA47-50W100%0.0
12-18Cal St. Bakersfield (327.9)WACH57-56W100%0.0
12-19Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyH0-083%11.2
12-20South Dakota St. (155.8)SumH0-067%5.1
12-31San Jose St. (327.7)MWCH0-093%17.6
1-3Boise St. (62.9)MWCA0-017%-11.1
1-7Fresno St. (258.3)MWCA0-052%0.5
1-10New Mexico (109.7)MWCH0-050%0.1
1-17Air Force (109.1)MWCH0-046%-1.2
1-20Nevada (283.3)MWCA0-052%0.6
1-24UNLV (134.4)MWCA0-035%-4.5
1-27Wyoming (72.2)MWCH0-038%-3.7
1-31San Diego St. (35.0)MWCA0-011%-14.4
2-3Boise St. (62.9)MWCH0-042%-2.3
2-7New Mexico (109.7)MWCA0-023%-8.7
2-10Nevada (283.3)MWCH0-079%9.3
2-18San Jose St. (327.7)MWCA0-078%8.9
2-21Fresno St. (258.3)MWCH0-078%9.2
2-24UNLV (134.4)MWCH0-064%4.2
2-28Air Force (109.1)MWCA0-020%-9.9
3-4Wyoming (72.2)MWCA0-015%-12.4
3-7Colorado St. (32.3)MWCH0-036%-4.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC27.9726.3658.9750.325.020.17
San Jose St.MWC0.744.380.007.32-0.74-3.74
New MexicoMWC0.284.3570.0058.260.110.72
UNLVMWC0.004.3275.0050.760.000.07
Fresno St.MWC0.284.3230.0029.42-0.11-1.78
NevadaMWC0.404.3211.1124.28-0.31-2.22
Air ForceMWC0.004.3157.1461.240.000.97
Boise St.MWC0.004.2875.0068.550.001.59
WyomingMWC0.004.2877.7873.330.002.00
San Diego St.MWC0.592.7570.0072.270.231.22
Colorado St.MWC0.002.69100.0078.530.001.53
Idaho St.BSky0.311.9714.2933.93-0.22-0.63
Weber St.BSky6.171.9433.3343.80-2.06-0.24
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC5.561.9411.1131.58-4.32-0.71
Utah ValleyWAC5.951.9137.5041.86-1.49-0.31
UC DavisBW5.861.8883.3359.523.910.36
BYUWCC5.951.8562.5066.131.490.60
Santa ClaraWCC5.561.8557.1442.390.79-0.28
South Dakota St.Sum0.001.7962.5055.780.000.21
USCP125.561.7855.5633.920.62-0.57
Illinois St.MVC5.951.7675.0066.602.980.58
Mississippi St.SEC5.561.7242.8637.25-0.79-0.44
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3336.3664.92-0.000.10
Cal St. FullertonBW0.620.3036.3638.88-0.17-0.07
PacificWCC0.000.3050.0038.180.00-0.07
IdahoBSky0.400.2837.5049.83-0.10-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.310.2816.6727.56-0.21-0.12
Montana St.BSky0.310.2822.2228.69-0.17-0.12
CaliforniaP120.000.2790.0066.690.000.09
PepperdineWCC0.000.2475.0058.430.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.2466.6748.410.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.2237.5046.50-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.2225.0052.09-0.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.2242.8638.75-0.00-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2136.3644.53-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.280.2125.0023.43-0.14-0.11
San DiegoWCC0.000.2154.5557.300.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.2166.6758.240.000.03
UtahP120.310.2077.7879.480.170.12
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1944.4455.75-0.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1840.0050.78-0.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.310.1840.0050.07-0.060.00
Washington St.P120.350.1840.0028.86-0.07-0.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1828.5757.26-0.000.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.1871.4357.100.000.03
South DakotaSum0.590.1827.2738.97-0.27-0.04
DenverSum0.000.1850.0054.230.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.310.1666.6777.030.100.09
UMKCWAC0.000.1622.2241.92-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.310.15100.0080.590.310.09
StanfordP120.000.1475.0057.570.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.1342.8642.32-0.04-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0011.40-0.00-0.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1337.5041.20-0.00-0.02
HawaiiBW0.590.1266.6754.830.200.01
UC RiversideBW0.280.1242.8643.10-0.04-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.1288.8955.910.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1237.5046.78-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.560.1250.0041.830.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.1290.0090.940.000.10
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1250.0053.850.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.12100.0071.820.000.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1277.7871.110.000.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.0920.0038.24-0.17-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0925.0032.77-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.400.0944.4445.59-0.04-0.01
ArmyPat0.280.0977.7868.780.150.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0920.0028.20-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0937.5064.43-0.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0957.1456.900.000.01
Seton HallBE0.310.0990.0067.260.250.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0990.0078.050.000.05
ArkansasSEC0.000.0977.7871.960.000.04
TennesseeSEC0.350.0950.0046.150.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0937.5040.20-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.820.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0966.6742.100.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.350.0977.7855.460.190.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0977.7865.390.000.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.790.0633.3338.99-0.26-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0616.6719.68-0.00-0.04
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0625.0038.92-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0681.8264.110.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0655.5656.400.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0627.2737.85-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0637.5031.95-0.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0662.5054.980.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.390.000.05
IUPUISum0.000.0620.0026.33-0.00-0.03
LSUSEC0.400.0680.0064.110.240.02
Saint LouisA100.350.0660.0033.870.07-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3332.09-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.0620.0019.99-0.00-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0012.36-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3332.85-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4359.920.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.0610.0018.61-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0660.0049.500.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0027.42-0.00-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0687.5085.320.000.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0017.51-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3345.28-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0670.0052.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0644.4431.58-0.00-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0618.1846.16-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0074.000.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
UCLAP120.000.0672.7357.280.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0680.0069.620.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0675.0060.400.000.01
FurmanSC0.400.0325.0029.59-0.20-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.400.0355.5654.950.040.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
DelawareCAA0.280.030.007.39-0.28-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0375.0071.730.000.01
High PointBSth0.280.0362.5056.410.070.00
Michigan St.B100.350.0372.7373.150.160.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0023.15-0.00-0.02
NortheasternCAA0.000.0366.6757.860.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.350.0362.5073.190.090.01
RiderMAAC0.350.0350.0052.800.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.310.0342.8638.26-0.04-0.01
DePaulBE0.310.0360.0034.110.06-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.310.0342.8655.64-0.040.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0360.0055.630.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0355.5661.790.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.310.0388.8981.310.240.02
PurdueB100.310.0372.7363.730.140.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.310.0362.5066.700.080.01
UABCUSA0.310.0330.0037.28-0.12-0.01
VCUA100.310.0370.0071.420.120.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.310.0345.4544.07-0.03-0.00
AkronMAC0.280.0360.0056.560.060.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6754.660.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.350.0333.3345.50-0.12-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0342.8649.98-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0377.7869.190.000.01
DrexelCAA0.280.0325.0037.13-0.14-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0360.0064.930.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0362.5071.290.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.58-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0094.790.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0337.5042.45-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.0310.0018.01-0.28-0.02
Penn St.B100.280.0390.9153.850.230.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0366.6752.340.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
TCUB120.350.03100.0066.180.350.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.280.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.350.0387.5054.790.260.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.620.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0366.6772.670.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.85-0.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.350.0320.0041.46-0.21-0.00