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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:164.2
Current RPI:160
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:112
Current Record:9-11
Expected Record:13-14
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-1
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:81
Expected OOC SOS:113



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11107.70.57%
15-12124.55.76%
14-13142.517.87%
13-14158.929.61%
12-15174.428.67%
11-16189.713.25%
10-17204.73.93%
9-18221.80.33%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Weber St. (138.9)BSkyA70-73W100%0.0
11-24Utah Valley (257.4)WACH81-55W100%0.0
11-29Duke (21.5)ACCA85-52L0%0.0
12-1Missouri St. (234.9)MVCA68-69W100%0.0
12-9BYU (72.3)WCCA80-68L0%0.0
12-12UC Irvine (69.3)BWH63-73L0%0.0
12-21UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACH94-69W100%0.0
12-22Idaho St. (272.2)BSkyH69-58W100%0.0
12-23North Dakota St. (114.7)SumH76-62W100%0.0
12-30San Jose St. (295.6)MWCA71-80W100%0.0
1-2San Diego St. (49.0)MWCH67-70L0%0.0
1-5Boise St. (89.1)MWCH61-76L0%0.0
1-9New Mexico (95.5)MWCA77-59L0%0.0
1-12Air Force (232.3)MWCH79-60W100%0.0
1-16Colorado St. (181.2)MWCA92-96W100%0.0
1-19UNLV (120.9)MWCH68-80L0%0.0
1-23San Diego St. (49.0)MWCA70-55L0%0.0
1-30Nevada (135.1)MWCH84-89L0%0.0
2-2Boise St. (89.1)MWCA70-67L0%0.0
2-6Wyoming (179.4)MWCA84-65L0%0.0
2-9New Mexico (95.5)MWCH0-038%-3.2
2-17Colorado St. (181.2)MWCH0-060%2.8
2-20Fresno St. (122.6)MWCA0-030%-5.7
2-24Nevada (135.1)MWCA0-034%-4.5
2-27San Jose St. (295.6)MWCH0-083%10.3
3-1Air Force (232.3)MWCA0-064%3.8
3-5Fresno St. (122.6)MWCH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC26.3826.3944.7945.83-2.75-2.20
New MexicoMWC3.134.6759.0961.770.571.10
Boise St.MWC5.584.6360.0059.761.120.90
San Jose St.MWC3.074.6226.3223.90-1.45-2.41
Colorado St.MWC3.204.6155.0052.670.320.25
Fresno St.MWC0.694.6061.9059.760.170.90
Air ForceMWC3.084.6047.6239.98-0.15-0.92
San Diego St.MWC5.524.6070.0069.962.211.84
NevadaMWC3.064.5952.6352.340.160.22
WyomingMWC3.202.8840.9140.44-0.58-0.55
UNLVMWC3.072.8747.6253.60-0.150.21
Idaho St.BSky2.802.0247.3747.84-0.15-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC2.802.0235.0036.34-0.84-0.55
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.741.9915.0016.08-1.92-1.35
Weber St.BSky2.741.9868.4271.841.010.87
BYUWCC2.681.9865.2268.450.810.73
North Dakota St.Sum2.621.9266.6764.450.870.55
UC IrvineBW2.611.9271.4370.641.120.79
DukeACC2.501.8572.7369.041.140.71
Missouri St.MVC2.501.8540.9139.08-0.45-0.40
Montana St.BSky0.410.4040.9143.71-0.08-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.460.3965.2268.610.140.14
DenverSum0.350.2654.1751.800.030.01
UC DavisBW0.340.2640.0036.77-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.350.2640.0038.50-0.07-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.340.2545.4551.35-0.030.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.2466.6767.690.060.08
Portland St.BSky0.250.2331.5837.72-0.09-0.06
MontanaBSky0.230.2357.8962.290.040.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2330.4331.18-0.09-0.09
ArizonaP120.280.2279.1778.330.170.13
PacificWCC0.220.2225.0028.89-0.11-0.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.2239.1338.57-0.07-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.220.2254.1755.080.020.02
SeattleWAC0.180.2147.6244.99-0.01-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.290.2182.6181.140.190.13
Southern UtahBSky0.240.2015.0015.35-0.17-0.14
Northern ArizonaBSky0.240.2010.0013.13-0.19-0.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.310.2028.5726.96-0.13-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.180.1931.8229.14-0.06-0.08
OregonP120.230.1982.6179.210.150.11
Oral RobertsSum0.280.1939.1341.12-0.06-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.310.1747.3749.97-0.02-0.00
DrakeMVC0.180.1621.7423.66-0.10-0.09
Wichita St.MVC0.170.1672.7376.360.080.09
ColoradoP120.170.1669.5765.330.070.05
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1675.0076.240.080.08
UtahP120.280.1669.5767.480.110.06
Cal PolyBW0.110.1630.0034.56-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.120.144.357.73-0.11-0.12
UMKCWAC0.120.1428.5732.71-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.060.1354.5554.930.010.01
LamarSlnd0.120.1331.5831.96-0.04-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1342.1145.73-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1377.2776.860.100.07
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.1385.7185.390.160.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1335.0032.27-0.04-0.05
HawaiiBW0.060.1384.2181.670.040.08
BradleyMVC0.220.1312.5012.85-0.17-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.220.1354.1750.930.020.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1372.0070.510.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.100.1356.5257.280.010.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.1354.5550.110.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1243.4842.62-0.01-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1214.2917.92-0.12-0.08
RiceCUSA0.050.1228.5729.72-0.02-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.120.1052.1751.940.010.00
IUPUISum0.110.1040.0039.79-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1056.5256.310.010.01
South DakotaSum0.110.1041.6741.24-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.170.1065.2262.880.050.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1052.1751.960.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.1082.6177.740.040.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.0928.5728.54-0.05-0.04
KansasB120.170.0981.8277.570.110.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.0916.6720.13-0.07-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.110.0945.8341.65-0.01-0.02
Washington St.P120.120.0936.3632.00-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.060.0762.5056.260.020.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0759.0960.070.010.01
HoustonAmer0.110.0769.5766.510.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0713.6415.80-0.08-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0760.0060.090.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0752.3854.010.000.01
IPFWSum0.110.0770.8368.570.050.02
Oregon St.P120.060.0761.9056.420.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0727.7829.14-0.03-0.03
Miami FLACC0.110.0781.8276.740.070.04
Central MichiganMAC0.110.0650.0051.170.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0631.5831.80-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.0690.4886.880.090.05
ArmyPat0.060.0652.1753.380.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.069.5213.52-0.00-0.05
East CarolinaAmer0.110.0643.4842.01-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.8758.470.010.01
Michigan St.B100.110.0683.3383.020.080.04
OaklandHorz0.060.0668.0067.970.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0658.3354.160.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0628.0030.73-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0668.1866.670.020.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0633.3331.31-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0622.7323.25-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.110.0682.6179.550.070.04
IndianaB100.110.0679.1774.020.060.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0678.2676.810.030.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0642.8650.41-0.020.00
Boston CollegeACC0.110.0630.4326.50-0.04-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.61-0.01-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0682.6178.690.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0650.0049.090.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0679.1776.550.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0645.4554.11-0.000.00
USCP120.050.0678.2673.060.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0465.2267.140.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0447.8350.15-0.000.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0438.8938.51-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0476.1973.400.030.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0413.6413.62-0.04-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0345.8344.11-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9170.060.030.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0345.4549.70-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0329.1733.15-0.02-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0331.5831.98-0.02-0.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0354.1751.660.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.230.020.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.82-0.03-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0347.8344.37-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.039.0917.09-0.05-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0365.0066.790.020.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.450.020.01
UCLAP120.060.0356.5253.240.010.00
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.040.030.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0340.9149.27-0.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0345.0049.39-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.060.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.37-0.03-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.880.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0369.5764.890.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0354.1752.340.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0352.1751.590.000.00
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.550.030.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0376.1968.220.000.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.120.020.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9173.900.030.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0382.6178.050.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.650.030.01