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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:137.9
Current RPI:39
Expected SOS:164
Current SOS:68
Current Record:3-1
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-3
Current OOC Record:3-1
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:122
Expected OOC SOS:276



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-418.00.01%
24-531.00.05%
23-644.70.32%
22-753.91.22%
21-865.42.80%
20-978.95.98%
19-1094.510.67%
18-11112.414.72%
17-12130.017.82%
16-13149.116.17%
15-14168.413.45%
14-15187.58.67%
13-16206.54.88%
12-17226.31.95%
11-18243.71.01%
10-19262.00.25%
9-20277.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Weber St. (218.1)BSkyH72-61W100%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (141.4)MVCA55-60W100%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (167.4)WCCH60-54W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (179.8)SECA71-63L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (266.6)BWA0-066%4.9
12-2BYU (34.5)WCCH0-036%-4.3
12-7USC (228.5)P12A0-059%2.6
12-13Utah Valley (217.6)WACA0-060%3.1
12-18Cal St. Bakersfield (306.0)WACH0-089%14.5
12-19Idaho St. (319.4)BSkyH0-091%16.3
12-20South Dakota St. (172.6)SumH0-071%6.6
12-31San Jose St. (306.8)MWCH0-088%14.4
1-3Boise St. (78.3)MWCA0-028%-7.2
1-7Fresno St. (210.4)MWCA0-052%0.7
1-10New Mexico (112.4)MWCH0-054%1.2
1-17Air Force (195.5)MWCH0-071%6.5
1-20Nevada (164.3)MWCA0-040%-3.1
1-24UNLV (108.8)MWCA0-036%-4.4
1-27Wyoming (69.3)MWCH0-043%-2.0
1-31San Diego St. (24.3)MWCA0-012%-14.2
2-3Boise St. (78.3)MWCH0-050%0.0
2-7New Mexico (112.4)MWCA0-031%-6.0
2-10Nevada (164.3)MWCH0-063%4.1
2-18San Jose St. (306.8)MWCA0-073%7.2
2-21Fresno St. (210.4)MWCH0-074%7.9
2-24UNLV (108.8)MWCH0-059%2.8
2-28Air Force (195.5)MWCA0-048%-0.6
3-4Wyoming (69.3)MWCA0-022%-9.2
3-7Colorado St. (72.4)MWCH0-051%0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC35.4226.4081.2557.5522.143.99
San Jose St.MWC0.004.410.0017.36-0.00-2.88
New MexicoMWC0.004.3775.0059.670.000.85
UNLVMWC0.004.3575.0053.260.000.28
Fresno St.MWC0.004.340.0032.80-0.00-1.49
Air ForceMWC0.004.3450.0046.300.00-0.32
WyomingMWC0.004.32100.0071.120.001.82
Boise St.MWC0.004.3275.0063.180.001.14
NevadaMWC0.004.3133.3346.63-0.00-0.29
San Diego St.MWC0.002.77100.0080.340.001.68
Colorado St.MWC0.002.72100.0062.890.000.70
Idaho St.BSky0.001.980.0029.07-0.00-0.83
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.940.0032.38-0.00-0.69
Utah ValleyWAC0.001.9166.6749.740.00-0.01
UC DavisBW0.001.89100.0042.980.00-0.26
Weber St.BSky15.621.880.0050.13-15.620.00
BYUWCC0.001.85100.0070.250.000.75
Santa ClaraWCC12.501.85100.0046.6512.50-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.001.7933.3350.08-0.000.00
USCP120.001.7850.0027.300.00-0.81
Illinois St.MVC14.581.76100.0054.9514.580.17
Mississippi St.SEC12.501.72100.0043.4012.50-0.23
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3325.0066.02-0.000.11
Cal St. FullertonBW3.120.3233.3335.92-1.04-0.09
PacificWCC0.000.2950.0029.910.00-0.12
IdahoBSky0.000.2850.0047.120.00-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.280.0019.17-0.00-0.17
Montana St.BSky0.000.280.0023.51-0.00-0.15
CaliforniaP120.000.2875.0069.830.000.11
PepperdineWCC0.000.26100.0050.830.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.25100.0051.660.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.2250.0037.760.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.2233.3349.04-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.2266.6748.330.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.220.0048.00-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2233.3327.10-0.00-0.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2250.0049.760.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.2166.6760.720.000.05
UtahP120.000.2166.6769.700.000.08
Washington St.P120.000.1933.3327.58-0.00-0.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1933.3354.70-0.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.19100.0071.830.000.08
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1933.3353.79-0.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1966.6746.620.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.190.0053.10-0.000.01
DenverSum0.000.1850.0061.440.000.04
South DakotaSum0.000.180.0042.57-0.00-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1666.6768.230.000.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1633.3355.40-0.000.02
StanfordP120.000.1575.0071.090.000.06
GonzagaWCC0.000.13100.0087.190.000.10
San FranciscoWCC0.000.13100.0062.040.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1350.0046.250.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.13100.0063.550.000.03
Texas TechB120.000.1366.6746.900.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.1350.0063.070.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.13100.0057.540.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.130.0025.43-0.00-0.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1375.0054.790.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.13100.0030.790.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.130.0028.19-0.00-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.000.12100.0050.420.000.00
ArizonaP120.000.12100.0069.320.000.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.090.0044.01-0.00-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.000.0933.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0925.0033.97-0.00-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0950.0044.170.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0950.0051.860.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.09100.0072.420.000.04
ArmyPat0.000.09100.0066.100.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0950.0063.720.000.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0950.0042.680.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.09100.0073.660.000.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0950.0041.480.00-0.02
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0049.460.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0056.330.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.060.0027.82-0.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0650.0051.120.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0025.08-0.00-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.060.0033.25-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.50-0.00-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0666.6752.030.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.060.0031.61-0.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.060.0038.59-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6751.200.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0056.980.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0625.0049.94-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.08-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.87-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0085.100.000.04
LSUSEC2.080.0675.0060.551.040.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0028.76-0.00-0.03
HoustonAmer0.000.06100.0065.060.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0650.0031.810.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0059.190.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0044.810.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0633.3332.78-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.06100.0084.890.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0065.140.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.060.0019.92-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.27-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.000.0625.0019.94-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0650.0062.580.000.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6755.980.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6749.590.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0071.440.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0650.0068.880.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.72-0.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.07-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0062.510.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0666.6754.020.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.06100.0047.840.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3362.56-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0650.0061.790.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0625.0059.16-0.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0666.6767.990.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.0650.0053.100.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0366.6771.600.000.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0071.440.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0350.0058.120.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0375.0057.060.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.03100.0037.850.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3325.18-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0350.0071.840.000.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0350.0033.700.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.030.0043.18-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.000.03100.0073.570.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0325.0035.61-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0350.0053.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.030.0036.36-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0366.6760.610.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0350.0054.970.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.030.0029.55-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0064.090.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.03100.0072.860.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.030.0057.63-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0055.790.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0375.0060.410.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0350.0052.260.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.17-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.03100.0069.180.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0058.780.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.030.0042.47-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.030.0032.23-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6767.200.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0333.3346.79-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.03-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.630.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0044.91-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC2.080.030.0018.48-2.08-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6765.320.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0350.0035.040.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0051.050.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0333.3358.93-0.000.01
Western CarolinaSC2.080.030.0049.23-2.08-0.00