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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:118.1
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:160
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-1
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:149
Expected OOC SOS:78



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-732.50.06%
20-837.70.42%
19-949.31.54%
18-1060.03.85%
17-1171.97.32%
16-1286.212.62%
15-13101.617.27%
14-14117.818.17%
13-15135.516.23%
12-16153.611.78%
11-17172.46.55%
10-18190.82.85%
9-19211.40.94%
8-20230.70.29%
7-21241.90.09%
6-22255.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Irvine (159.9)BWA56-72W100%0.0
11-14NJIT (186.5)ASunH93-84W100%0.0
11-19Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyH85-51W100%0.0
11-22Purdue (23.6)B10N64-85L0%0.0
11-23Texas Tech (72.4)B12N51-75L0%0.0
11-30BYU (74.5)WCCN77-63L0%0.0
12-3Indiana St. (132.3)MVCH61-62L0%0.0
12-10Utah Valley (141.7)WACA0-054%1.2
12-19New Orleans (252.7)SlndH0-089%14.5
12-21Weber St. (209.7)BSkyH0-075%8.2
12-28Boise St. (108.9)MWCH0-056%1.9
12-31Air Force (168.0)MWCA0-049%-0.4
1-4New Mexico (89.1)MWCH0-055%1.6
1-7UNLV (195.9)MWCH0-072%7.1
1-11Wyoming (151.4)MWCA0-047%-0.8
1-14San Diego St. (63.7)MWCA0-025%-8.2
1-21Colorado St. (97.3)MWCH0-057%2.2
1-24New Mexico (89.1)MWCA0-035%-4.6
1-28Fresno St. (172.2)MWCH0-071%6.5
2-1Nevada (46.2)MWCH0-043%-2.1
2-4Boise St. (108.9)MWCA0-036%-4.3
2-7Colorado St. (97.3)MWCA0-037%-4.1
2-11Wyoming (151.4)MWCH0-067%5.4
2-15San Diego St. (63.7)MWCH0-044%-1.9
2-18Nevada (46.2)MWCA0-024%-8.3
2-22San Jose St. (192.3)MWCA0-057%2.2
2-25Air Force (168.0)MWCH0-069%5.9
3-1UNLV (195.9)MWCA0-053%0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC28.0426.3637.1448.31-7.21-0.89
New MexicoMWC0.454.5062.5058.380.110.75
UNLVMWC0.004.4762.5043.140.00-0.61
NevadaMWC0.004.4777.7872.150.001.98
Boise St.MWC0.004.4650.0057.120.000.64
Colorado St.MWC0.004.4471.4360.610.000.94
Air ForceMWC0.004.4457.1448.620.00-0.12
WyomingMWC0.004.4366.6754.590.000.41
San Diego St.MWC0.004.4260.0069.540.001.73
Fresno St.MWC0.002.7757.1444.470.00-0.31
San Jose St.MWC0.002.7750.0040.610.00-0.52
Idaho St.BSky7.992.1014.2930.83-5.70-0.80
Weber St.BSky0.001.9116.6750.74-0.000.03
BYUWCC7.141.8857.1465.981.020.60
Utah ValleyWAC0.891.8857.1458.240.130.31
NJITASun7.991.8550.0053.490.000.13
UC IrvineBW7.141.8450.0055.190.000.19
PurdueB107.541.8275.0076.903.770.98
Texas TechB127.591.8285.7160.395.420.38
Indiana St.MVC7.141.7933.3349.23-2.38-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.001.7940.0042.93-0.00-0.25
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.3475.0069.680.000.13
MontanaBSky0.000.2925.0048.70-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.400.2442.8645.98-0.06-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2425.0045.82-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.2342.8645.65-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.450.2125.0043.29-0.22-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.1950.0045.660.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1916.6740.32-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1857.1464.540.000.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.18100.0089.590.000.14
IdahoBSky0.000.1650.0053.130.000.01
CaliforniaP120.400.1687.5064.760.300.05
GonzagaWCC0.000.16100.0092.200.000.13
Southern UtahBSky0.000.150.0025.31-0.00-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.000.150.0031.31-0.00-0.06
Arizona St.P120.400.1555.5637.870.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.000.1557.1450.730.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.1575.0062.450.000.04
OregonP120.000.1575.0072.800.000.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1342.8658.24-0.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1342.8650.33-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1350.0064.910.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1325.0029.90-0.00-0.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1340.0054.81-0.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1371.4355.680.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1371.4358.830.000.02
Montana St.BSky0.000.1342.8656.48-0.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.1333.3355.64-0.000.01
StanfordP120.510.1366.6758.600.170.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1362.5060.090.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1333.3352.49-0.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.790.1325.0040.17-0.40-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.1325.0026.46-0.00-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.000.1237.5031.15-0.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1250.0045.130.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.120.0038.43-0.00-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1260.0058.900.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1277.7886.650.000.09
Houston BaptistSlnd0.450.120.0038.78-0.45-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1211.1120.27-0.00-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.400.1233.3332.79-0.13-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1260.0067.820.000.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.450.1225.0042.78-0.22-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1237.5025.74-0.00-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1228.5733.56-0.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1288.8956.710.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1257.1449.420.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0033.71-0.00-0.04
KansasB120.000.1288.8977.470.000.06
TCUB120.000.12100.0060.950.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.1042.8629.20-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.400.100.0017.92-0.40-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1042.8637.05-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.450.1042.8640.38-0.06-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.0942.8641.13-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.090.0020.21-0.00-0.06
AkronMAC0.000.0971.4368.930.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.090.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0971.4354.010.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0933.3352.03-0.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.51-0.00-0.03
ArizonaP120.400.0977.7870.290.220.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0023.62-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.510.0975.0071.330.260.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.03-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0712.5030.51-0.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.08-0.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0716.6738.83-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0055.44-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0755.5649.660.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0720.0022.88-0.00-0.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0712.5033.31-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.070.0019.08-0.00-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0720.0017.37-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.0640.0043.88-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0022.30-0.00-0.04
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.43-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0671.4337.680.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.1471.170.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.02-0.00-0.03
LipscombASun0.000.0611.1132.47-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.49-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.07-0.00-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.55-0.00-0.01
USCP120.450.06100.0076.400.450.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.29-0.00-0.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.690.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.47-0.00-0.03
HawaiiBW0.000.0642.8650.82-0.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0047.520.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC1.020.0642.8645.50-0.15-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0628.5724.39-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.650.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.790.0650.0061.350.000.01
MinnesotaB100.400.0688.8966.920.310.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.890.0650.0050.980.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.450.0685.7175.250.320.03
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.90-0.00-0.03
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.270.000.03
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.46-0.00-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0685.7162.500.000.01
AuburnSEC0.840.0685.7157.280.600.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.070.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0690.0080.060.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.0666.6751.140.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0687.5074.510.000.03
IowaB100.000.0644.4438.41-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0660.0058.780.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.030.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.000.0666.6746.170.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
TexasB120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.80-0.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.140.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.770.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0371.4363.080.000.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0057.950.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0312.5023.82-0.00-0.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0037.700.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0380.0058.220.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0325.0040.78-0.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0043.770.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.400.0312.5030.11-0.30-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
LafayettePat0.400.0342.8635.40-0.06-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0312.5033.18-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.400.0333.3340.37-0.13-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0337.5043.19-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.820.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.400.0320.0035.15-0.24-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.510.0350.0050.170.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.830.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.400.0383.3379.920.260.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0357.1449.640.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.400.0337.5037.96-0.10-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.510.0328.5737.54-0.22-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.07-0.00-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.450.0325.0038.98-0.22-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.450.030.0017.16-0.45-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.92-0.00-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.400.0387.5075.690.300.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.030.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0377.7865.840.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.400.0316.6738.87-0.26-0.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.38-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.450.0333.3331.35-0.15-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0076.970.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0377.7862.010.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.450.0320.0060.00-0.270.01
RiceCUSA0.450.0375.0070.570.220.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
Saint LouisA100.450.0325.0023.99-0.22-0.01
VillanovaBE0.400.03100.0084.740.400.02
Western IllinoisSum0.000.030.0016.33-0.00-0.02