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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:151.0
Current RPI:151
Expected SOS:112
Current SOS:112
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-0
Current OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:78
Expected OOC SOS:105



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15151.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Weber St. (108.0)BSkyA70-73W100%0.0
11-24Utah Valley (272.0)WACH81-55W100%0.0
11-29Duke (20.0)ACCA85-52L0%0.0
12-1Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA68-69W100%0.0
12-9BYU (76.0)WCCA80-68L0%0.0
12-12UC Irvine (75.0)BWH63-73L0%0.0
12-21UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH94-69W100%0.0
12-22Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyH69-58W100%0.0
12-23North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH76-62W100%0.0
12-30San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA71-80W100%0.0
1-2San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH67-70L0%0.0
1-5Boise St. (101.0)MWCH61-76L0%0.0
1-9New Mexico (141.0)MWCA77-59L0%0.0
1-12Air Force (226.0)MWCH79-60W100%0.0
1-16Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA92-96W100%0.0
1-19UNLV (147.0)MWCH68-80L0%0.0
1-23San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA70-55L0%0.0
1-30Nevada (118.0)MWCH84-89L0%0.0
2-2Boise St. (101.0)MWCA70-67L0%0.0
2-6Wyoming (187.0)MWCA84-65L0%0.0
2-9New Mexico (141.0)MWCH80-72W100%0.0
2-17Colorado St. (181.0)MWCH72-59W100%0.0
2-20Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA75-68L0%0.0
2-24Nevada (118.0)MWCA73-68L0%0.0
2-27San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH88-70W100%0.0
3-1Air Force (226.0)MWCA65-78W100%0.0
3-5Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH85-86L0%0.0
3-9Wyoming (187.0)MWCN70-88W100%0.0
3-10San Diego St. (41.0)MWCN71-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC26.4326.4347.4147.41-1.37-1.37
San Diego St.MWC6.136.1368.9768.972.332.33
Colorado St.MWC4.534.5353.3353.330.300.30
Fresno St.MWC4.524.5270.0070.001.811.81
NevadaMWC4.454.4553.5753.570.320.32
New MexicoMWC4.444.4453.3353.330.300.30
Boise St.MWC4.434.4357.1457.140.630.63
San Jose St.MWC4.424.4223.0823.08-2.38-2.38
WyomingMWC4.404.4039.2939.29-0.94-0.94
Air ForceMWC4.354.3542.8642.86-0.62-0.62
UNLVMWC2.842.8450.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC1.871.8734.6234.62-0.58-0.58
Idaho St.BSky1.871.8750.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.851.8519.2319.23-1.14-1.14
Weber St.BSky1.841.8476.6776.670.980.98
BYUWCC1.841.8467.7467.740.650.65
North Dakota St.Sum1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
UC IrvineBW1.781.7870.9770.970.750.75
DukeACC1.721.7268.7568.750.650.65
Missouri St.MVC1.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
Montana St.BSky0.410.4143.3343.33-0.06-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.380.3867.7467.740.130.13
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
DenverSum0.260.2651.6151.610.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.240.2472.4172.410.110.11
Portland St.BSky0.230.2337.9337.93-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.230.2362.0762.070.060.06
UC DavisBW0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2333.3333.33-0.08-0.08
PortlandWCC0.220.2235.4835.48-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.2179.3179.310.120.12
North DakotaBSky0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.200.2075.7675.760.100.10
San DiegoWCC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.190.1923.0823.08-0.10-0.10
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1714.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1710.7110.71-0.14-0.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
DrakeMVC0.170.1720.0020.00-0.10-0.10
OregonP120.170.1781.8281.820.110.11
Oral RobertsSum0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
UtahP120.160.1675.7675.760.080.08
Cal PolyBW0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
CaliforniaP120.140.1469.7069.700.050.05
ColoradoP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1325.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.130.133.453.45-0.12-0.12
IdahoBSky0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
LamarSlnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1183.8783.870.080.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
HawaiiBW0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
IUPUISum0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
RiceCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.05-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
West VirginiaB120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0611.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ArmyPat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01