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Through games of Mar 17, 2013.


Utah St.

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:108.0
Current RPI:108
Expected SOS:167
Current SOS:167
Current Record:20-10
Expected Record:20-10
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-0
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:63
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10108.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Idaho St. (337.0)BSkyH56-48W100%0.0
11-15St. Mary's (29.0)WCCH58-67L0%0.0
11-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)SlndH77-68W100%0.0
11-24Weber St. (84.0)BSkyH65-55W100%0.0
11-28Santa Clara (101.0)WCCA78-80W100%0.0
12-15Utah Valley (297.0)GWCA63-69W100%0.0
12-20Nicholls St. (296.0)SlndH79-72W100%0.0
12-21UC Davis (234.0)BWH73-61W100%0.0
12-22Southern Illinois (192.0)MVCH70-58W100%0.0
12-29Texas San Antonio (260.0)WACA67-71W100%0.0
12-31Texas St. (272.0)WACA57-81W100%0.0
1-3Seattle (303.0)WACH75-66W100%0.0
1-5Idaho (195.0)WACH82-75W100%0.0
1-11San Jose St. (261.0)WACH66-60W100%0.0
1-17New Mexico St. (55.0)WACA64-51L0%0.0
1-19Denver (64.0)WACA68-57L0%0.0
1-24Texas Arlington (119.0)WACH68-74L0%0.0
1-26Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACH48-51L0%0.0
1-31Idaho (195.0)WACA67-77W100%0.0
2-2Seattle (303.0)WACA46-68W100%0.0
2-8San Jose St. (261.0)WACA36-63W100%0.0
2-14Denver (64.0)WACH60-63L0%0.0
2-16New Mexico St. (55.0)WACH73-69W100%0.0
2-19Brigham Young (69.0)WCCA70-68L0%0.0
2-23Illinois St. (117.0)MVCH80-71W100%0.0
2-28Louisiana Tech (53.0)WACA84-61L0%0.0
3-2Texas Arlington (119.0)WACA61-46L0%0.0
3-7Texas St. (272.0)WACH77-61W100%0.0
3-9Texas San Antonio (260.0)WACH71-51W100%0.0
3-14Texas Arlington (119.0)WACN83-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.WAC26.4126.4164.7164.717.777.77
Texas ArlingtonWAC5.985.9855.1755.170.620.62
Texas San AntonioWAC4.484.4833.3333.33-1.49-1.49
New Mexico St.WAC4.454.4570.9770.971.871.87
Texas St.WAC4.434.4335.4835.48-1.28-1.28
IdahoWAC4.354.3540.7440.74-0.81-0.81
DenverWAC4.334.3367.8667.861.551.55
San Jose St.WAC4.334.3330.7730.77-1.66-1.66
Louisiana TechWAC4.314.3179.3179.312.532.53
SeattleWAC4.304.3025.9325.93-2.07-2.07
Santa ClaraWCC1.861.8665.5265.520.580.58
Brigham YoungWCC1.851.8563.3363.330.490.49
Weber St.BSky1.841.8482.7682.761.211.21
UC DavisBW1.841.8446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Nicholls St.Slnd1.831.8331.0331.03-0.70-0.70
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.831.8318.5218.52-1.15-1.15
Idaho St.BSky1.781.7817.8617.86-1.14-1.14
St. Mary'sWCC1.781.7880.6580.651.091.09
Southern IllinoisMVC1.771.7744.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Illinois St.MVC1.721.7256.2556.250.220.22
Utah ValleyGWC1.721.7237.0437.04-0.45-0.45
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.340.3432.2632.26-0.12-0.12
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.330.3338.4638.46-0.08-0.08
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.270.2742.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.240.2431.2531.25-0.09-0.09
New Orleansind0.230.2318.1818.18-0.15-0.15
Montana St.BSky0.230.2339.2939.29-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.230.2379.3179.310.130.13
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.210.2143.7543.75-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.200.2044.4444.44-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSlnd0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
PepperdineWCC0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.190.1993.7593.750.160.16
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1829.0329.03-0.08-0.08
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
Southern UtahBSky0.170.1731.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Houston BaptistGWC0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.170.179.689.68-0.13-0.13
South Carolina UpstateASun0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Southern MississippiCUSA0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.160.1685.2985.290.110.11
Texas El PasoCUSA0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
StanfordP120.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.130.1355.1755.170.010.01
PacificBW0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
CreightonMVC0.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
DrakeMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
TexasB120.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1239.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1285.1985.190.080.08
TroySB0.110.1136.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.110.1123.0823.08-0.06-0.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UtahP120.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1175.0075.000.050.05
UC RiversideBW0.100.1014.2914.29-0.07-0.07
HoustonCUSA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.CAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North TexasSB0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.GWC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
KansasB120.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.060.0648.0048.00-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
MercerASun0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
St. LouisA100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCAA0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
CharlotteA100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
IUPUISum0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Western KentuckySB0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameBE0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01