Utah St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	108.0
Current RPI:	108
Expected SOS:	167
Current SOS:	167
Current Record:	20-10
Expected Record:	20-10
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-0
Current OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC Record:	9-2
Expected OOC RPI:	63
Expected OOC SOS:	210

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-10	108.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Idaho St. (337.0)	BSky	H	56-48	W	100%
11-15	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	H	58-67	L	0%
11-17	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	77-68	W	100%
11-24	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	H	65-55	W	100%
11-28	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	78-80	W	100%
12-15	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	63-69	W	100%
12-20	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	79-72	W	100%
12-21	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	73-61	W	100%
12-22	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	H	70-58	W	100%
12-29	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	67-71	W	100%
12-31	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	A	57-81	W	100%
1-3	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	75-66	W	100%
1-5	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	82-75	W	100%
1-11	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	66-60	W	100%
1-17	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	64-51	L	0%
1-19	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	68-57	L	0%
1-24	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	68-74	L	0%
1-26	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	48-51	L	0%
1-31	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	67-77	W	100%
2-2	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	46-68	W	100%
2-8	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	36-63	W	100%
2-14	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	60-63	L	0%
2-16	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	73-69	W	100%
2-19	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	70-68	L	0%
2-23	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	80-71	W	100%
2-28	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	84-61	L	0%
3-2	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	61-46	L	0%
3-7	Texas St. (272.0)	WAC	H	77-61	W	100%
3-9	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	71-51	W	100%
3-14	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	N	83-78	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah St.	WAC	26.41	26.41	64.71	64.71	7.77	7.77
Texas Arlington	WAC	5.98	5.98	55.17	55.17	0.62	0.62
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.48	4.48	33.33	33.33	-1.49	-1.49
New Mexico St.	WAC	4.45	4.45	70.97	70.97	1.87	1.87
Texas St.	WAC	4.43	4.43	35.48	35.48	-1.28	-1.28
Idaho	WAC	4.35	4.35	40.74	40.74	-0.81	-0.81
Denver	WAC	4.33	4.33	67.86	67.86	1.55	1.55
San Jose St.	WAC	4.33	4.33	30.77	30.77	-1.66	-1.66
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.31	4.31	79.31	79.31	2.53	2.53
Seattle	WAC	4.30	4.30	25.93	25.93	-2.07	-2.07
Santa Clara	WCC	1.86	1.86	65.52	65.52	0.58	0.58
Brigham Young	WCC	1.85	1.85	63.33	63.33	0.49	0.49
Weber St.	BSky	1.84	1.84	82.76	82.76	1.21	1.21
UC Davis	BW	1.84	1.84	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.83	1.83	31.03	31.03	-0.70	-0.70
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	1.83	1.83	18.52	18.52	-1.15	-1.15
Idaho St.	BSky	1.78	1.78	17.86	17.86	-1.14	-1.14
St. Mary's	WCC	1.78	1.78	80.65	80.65	1.09	1.09
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.77	1.77	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Illinois St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Utah Valley	GWC	1.72	1.72	37.04	37.04	-0.45	-0.45
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.34	0.34	32.26	32.26	-0.12	-0.12
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.33	0.33	38.46	38.46	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.27	0.27	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.24	0.24	31.25	31.25	-0.09	-0.09
New Orleans	ind	0.23	0.23	18.18	18.18	-0.15	-0.15
Montana St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	39.29	39.29	-0.05	-0.05
Montana	BSky	0.23	0.23	79.31	79.31	0.13	0.13
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.21	0.21	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.20	0.20	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.19	0.19	34.38	34.38	-0.06	-0.06
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.19	0.19	93.75	93.75	0.16	0.16
Missouri St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.17	0.17	70.37	70.37	0.07	0.07
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.17	0.17	9.68	9.68	-0.13	-0.13
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.16	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.13	0.13	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Texas	B12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.12	85.19	85.19	0.08	0.08
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	SB	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01