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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:181.0
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:95
Current SOS:95
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17181.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11UC Irvine (135.0)BWA56-72W100%0.0
11-14NJIT (290.0)ASunH93-84W100%0.0
11-19Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH85-51W100%0.0
11-22Purdue (19.0)B10N64-85L0%0.0
11-23Texas Tech (124.0)B12N51-75L0%0.0
11-30BYU (65.0)WCCN77-63L0%0.0
12-3Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH61-62L0%0.0
12-10Utah Valley (206.0)WACA79-80W100%0.0
12-19New Orleans (154.0)SlndH76-66W100%0.0
12-21Weber St. (185.0)BSkyH71-77L0%0.0
12-28Boise St. (72.0)MWCH80-83L0%0.0
12-31Air Force (250.0)MWCA78-73L0%0.0
1-4New Mexico (86.0)MWCH79-75W100%0.0
1-7UNLV (242.0)MWCH79-63W100%0.0
1-11Wyoming (152.0)MWCA95-87L0%0.0
1-14San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA74-55L0%0.0
1-21Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH56-64L0%0.0
1-24New Mexico (86.0)MWCA74-61L0%0.0
1-28Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH78-65W100%0.0
2-1Nevada (29.0)MWCH74-57W100%0.0
2-4Boise St. (72.0)MWCA72-70L0%0.0
2-7Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA69-52L0%0.0
2-11Wyoming (152.0)MWCH81-74W100%0.0
2-15San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH62-66L0%0.0
2-18Nevada (29.0)MWCA77-66L0%0.0
2-22San Jose St. (191.0)MWCA75-81W100%0.0
2-25Air Force (250.0)MWCH89-58W100%0.0
3-1UNLV (242.0)MWCA66-59L0%0.0
3-8San Jose St. (191.0)MWCN90-64W100%0.0
3-9Nevada (29.0)MWCN83-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC26.4026.4040.1540.15-5.20-5.20
NevadaMWC5.935.9383.8783.874.014.01
Colorado St.MWC4.364.3663.3363.331.161.16
San Diego St.MWC4.354.3553.3353.330.290.29
Air ForceMWC4.304.3031.0331.03-1.63-1.63
UNLVMWC4.274.2733.3333.33-1.42-1.42
Boise St.MWC4.274.2759.2659.260.790.79
New MexicoMWC4.244.2455.1755.170.440.44
San Jose St.MWC4.244.2446.1546.15-0.33-0.33
WyomingMWC4.234.2353.5753.570.300.30
Fresno St.MWC2.762.7662.0762.070.670.67
Idaho St.BSky1.941.9413.7913.79-1.41-1.41
Weber St.BSky1.781.7855.1755.170.180.18
BYUWCC1.751.7565.6265.620.550.55
Utah ValleyWAC1.751.7544.4444.44-0.19-0.19
UC IrvineBW1.741.7459.3859.380.330.33
NJITASun1.721.7232.1432.14-0.61-0.61
PurdueB101.701.7077.4277.420.930.93
Texas TechB121.691.6954.8454.840.160.16
Indiana St.MVC1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
New OrleansSlnd1.671.6762.9662.960.430.43
New Mexico St.WAC0.300.3083.3383.330.200.20
MontanaBSky0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.260.2648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.2387.5087.500.180.18
PacificWCC0.230.2331.2531.25-0.09-0.09
DenverSum0.230.2353.3353.330.020.02
IonaMAAC0.200.2064.7164.710.060.06
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1912.9012.90-0.14-0.14
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.190.1935.7135.71-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
IdahoBSky0.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.160.1622.2222.22-0.09-0.09
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
North DakotaBSky0.140.1467.8667.860.050.05
OregonP120.140.1484.8584.850.100.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
CaliforniaP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.130.1396.9796.970.120.12
ColoradoP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1218.5218.52-0.08-0.08
Washington St.P120.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.110.1138.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1136.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1168.9768.970.040.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Montana St.BSky0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
USCP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
PortlandWCC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.110.1132.0032.00-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
KansasB120.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
Kansas St.B120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.100.1012.9012.90-0.08-0.08
SeattleWAC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
DrakeMVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
TulsaAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
UTEPCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0773.3373.330.030.03
TowsonCAA0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.05-0.05
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
DukeACC0.050.0577.1477.140.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0329.4129.41-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01