Utah St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	132.3
Current RPI:	146
Expected SOS:	119
Current SOS:	120
Current Record:	12-12
Expected Record:	16-14
Current Conf Record:	4-5
Expected Conf Record:	7-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	14.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-4
Current OOC Record:	8-7
Expected OOC Record:	9-7
Expected OOC RPI:	118
Expected OOC SOS:	116

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-12	98.1	6.77%
17-13	113.3	23.59%
16-14	129.3	34.03%
15-15	147.0	24.59%
14-16	166.7	9.27%
13-17	187.1	1.65%
12-18	201.9	0.09%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Brigham Young (44.9)	WCC	H	69-62	W	100%	0.0
11-15	Weber St. (84.1)	BSky	A	73-63	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Southern Utah (231.1)	Sum	H	65-62	W	100%	0.0
11-22	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	A	58-55	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Idaho St. (259.8)	BSky	A	62-75	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Denver (91.3)	SB	H	54-67	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Pacific (265.6)	BW	A	65-57	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Utah Valley (222.0)	GWC	H	63-54	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Wichita St. (17.4)	MVC	A	83-76	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Seattle (288.1)	ind	H	78-53	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	H	73-69	W	100%	0.0
12-21	St. Peter's (280.4)	MAAC	H	72-47	W	100%	0.0
12-22	Kent St. (84.8)	MAC	H	81-62	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Mississippi St. (41.7)	SEC	A	66-64	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	H	72-53	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	H	71-78	L	0%	0.0
1-12	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	A	80-60	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	A	65-69	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Seattle (288.1)	ind	A	73-66	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	A	57-54	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	H	77-72	W	100%	0.0
1-28	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	H	82-65	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Nevada (63.3)	WAC	A	53-52	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Fresno St. (183.3)	WAC	A	60-54	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	0-0		82%	10.2
2-11	New Mexico St. (73.3)	WAC	H	0-0		49%	-0.3
2-18	UC Santa Barbara (147.3)	BW	H	0-0		64%	3.8
2-24	Idaho (169.6)	WAC	H	0-0		67%	4.9
3-1	San Jose St. (281.3)	WAC	A	0-0		74%	7.0
3-3	Hawaii (184.5)	WAC	A	0-0		52%	0.5

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah St.	WAC	26.48	26.36	50.00	52.05	0.00	1.08
Idaho	WAC	2.78	4.16	45.00	49.90	-0.28	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	4.61	4.13	38.10	44.13	-1.10	-0.49
San Jose St.	WAC	2.69	4.13	28.57	27.98	-1.15	-1.82
Hawaii	WAC	2.62	4.09	60.00	55.35	0.52	0.44
Nevada	WAC	4.64	4.08	78.95	74.61	2.69	2.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	2.56	4.06	45.00	46.02	-0.26	-0.32
New Mexico St.	WAC	2.52	4.03	68.18	68.44	0.92	1.49
Seattle	ind	4.36	3.63	20.00	31.77	-2.61	-1.32
Pacific	BW	2.37	2.00	31.58	35.07	-0.87	-0.60
Weber St.	BSky	2.32	1.87	78.95	75.92	1.34	0.97
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.28	1.87	80.00	78.65	1.37	1.07
Utah Valley	GWC	2.33	1.81	57.14	59.91	0.33	0.36
Brigham Young	WCC	2.23	1.79	78.26	78.72	1.26	1.03
Idaho St.	BSky	2.19	1.76	35.00	35.14	-0.66	-0.52
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	1.76	55.56	58.91	0.01	0.31
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.18	1.75	14.29	18.41	-1.55	-1.11
St. Peter's	MAAC	2.18	1.72	22.73	25.43	-1.19	-0.85
Kent St.	MAC	2.18	1.72	75.00	71.52	1.09	0.74
Southern Utah	Sum	2.14	1.70	47.62	46.01	-0.10	-0.14
Denver	SB	2.13	1.69	69.57	71.24	0.83	0.72
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.08	1.67	77.27	71.41	1.14	0.71
Wichita St.	MVC	2.08	1.67	81.82	79.72	1.33	0.99
Portland St.	BSky	0.42	0.44	42.86	45.80	-0.06	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.29	0.44	0.00	5.37	-0.29	-0.39
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.29	0.35	47.83	47.87	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.30	0.33	70.00	73.28	0.12	0.16
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.27	0.31	40.91	44.03	-0.05	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.37	0.31	45.00	41.76	-0.04	-0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.24	0.30	50.00	56.76	0.00	0.04
UC Irvine	BW	0.33	0.29	35.00	35.26	-0.10	-0.08
UC Riverside	BW	0.25	0.28	42.86	39.66	-0.04	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.31	0.27	56.52	53.77	0.04	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.24	21.05	22.46	-0.06	-0.13
Boise St.	MWC	0.32	0.23	42.86	41.13	-0.05	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.14	0.23	30.00	27.84	-0.06	-0.10
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.23	0.23	57.14	60.75	0.03	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.38	0.23	37.50	38.33	-0.10	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.24	0.21	30.00	31.54	-0.10	-0.08
Wyoming	MWC	0.29	0.21	76.19	70.73	0.15	0.09
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.18	0.20	85.71	82.18	0.13	0.13
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.19	71.43	73.35	0.04	0.09
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.19	31.82	33.83	-0.03	-0.06
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.19	0.18	82.61	81.44	0.13	0.11
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.15	0.18	30.00	33.20	-0.06	-0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.14	0.18	28.57	26.30	-0.06	-0.08
North Dakota	GWC	0.15	0.18	33.33	41.31	-0.05	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.14	0.17	41.18	42.61	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.22	0.16	69.57	66.54	0.09	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.16	65.00	66.70	0.03	0.05
Stanford	P12	0.27	0.16	69.57	68.29	0.10	0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.64	16.14	-0.11	-0.10
California	P12	0.14	0.15	75.00	74.61	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.15	21.74	21.70	-0.08	-0.09
Utah	P12	0.24	0.15	18.18	15.01	-0.15	-0.10
Missouri St.	MVC	0.19	0.14	54.17	57.20	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.09	0.14	79.17	80.10	0.05	0.09
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.57	65.15	0.06	0.04
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.14	0.14	8.70	8.99	-0.11	-0.12
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.03	0.09	0.09
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	55.00	54.48	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.15	0.12	19.05	24.61	-0.09	-0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.18	0.12	90.91	87.74	0.15	0.09
Troy	SB	0.18	0.12	28.57	30.17	-0.08	-0.05
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.19	0.12	61.90	63.52	0.04	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.19	0.12	24.00	24.86	-0.10	-0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.09	0.12	81.82	81.49	0.06	0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.19	0.12	59.09	57.76	0.03	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.12	30.43	31.43	-0.07	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.14	0.11	43.48	44.25	-0.02	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.14	0.11	68.42	66.45	0.05	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.11	27.78	29.87	-0.02	-0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.15	0.11	27.78	29.58	-0.07	-0.05
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.11	56.52	48.81	0.01	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.14	0.11	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.11	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.11	62.50	62.06	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.10	0.11	26.32	29.79	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.14	0.11	38.10	37.86	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.11	47.06	50.75	-0.01	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.10	0.11	22.22	27.62	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.11	28.57	34.20	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.11	68.00	69.07	0.05	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.11	43.48	43.31	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.14	0.09	34.78	35.20	-0.04	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.09	0.09	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.09	25.00	28.52	-0.05	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	4.76	9.95	-0.08	-0.07
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.09	35.00	40.78	-0.04	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	54.17	54.75	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.09	0.08	68.18	67.91	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.14	0.08	90.91	83.85	0.11	0.06
Colorado	P12	0.14	0.08	66.67	62.65	0.05	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.08	69.57	64.53	0.05	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.08	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.14	0.08	65.22	65.17	0.04	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.08	68.18	69.10	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.08	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.12	0.07	90.48	87.91	0.10	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.12	0.07	81.82	76.80	0.08	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.04
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.06	35.00	35.31	-0.03	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.06	34.78	35.50	-0.01	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.06	33.33	38.38	-0.02	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.06	80.77	80.75	0.03	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.06	26.32	28.83	-0.04	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.06	73.91	75.49	0.05	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.06	52.63	48.41	0.00	-0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.06	5.26	7.30	-0.09	-0.05
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.06	63.64	63.16	0.01	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.06	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.74	0.02	0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.09	0.06	47.62	44.63	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.06	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.06	45.45	44.02	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.06	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.06	20.00	19.96	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.06	30.00	34.15	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.06	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.06	-0.03	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.02	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.09	0.06	40.91	39.82	-0.02	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.10	0.06	61.90	67.23	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.06	25.00	23.75	-0.05	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	17.39	24.41	-0.03	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.06	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.06	54.55	54.30	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.06	77.27	73.45	0.02	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.43	-0.01	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.06	37.50	41.54	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.09	0.06	37.50	38.52	-0.02	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.06	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	45.00	46.13	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.09	0.05	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	63.64	56.71	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.42	-0.02	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.86	-0.04	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.03	66.67	69.69	0.02	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.03	15.00	15.73	-0.03	-0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.05	0.03	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.03	59.09	54.70	0.01	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	23.02	-0.03	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.33	0.00	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.98	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.00	0.03	76.19	76.76	0.00	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.00	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.00	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.04	0.03	83.33	84.76	0.03	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	46.99	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	60.87	61.37	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.03	31.82	42.13	-0.02	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.04	0.03	9.52	11.44	-0.04	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	42.96	-0.01	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.04	0.03	75.00	73.97	0.02	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.02	-0.05	-0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.13	-0.04	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.00	0.03	17.39	20.97	-0.00	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.03	8.70	11.67	-0.04	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.91	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.05	0.02	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.03	0.02	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.74	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.03	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	82.61	77.63	0.03	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.56	-0.00	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.66	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.03	4.35	9.66	-0.04	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.87	0.02	0.01