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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:116.0
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:102
Current SOS:102
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC Record:9-2
Expected OOC RPI:88
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14116.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8USC (176.0)P12H78-65W100%0.0
11-12Southern Utah (346.0)BSkyH90-57W100%0.0
11-16UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA64-71W100%0.0
11-23Mississippi St. (245.0)SECH87-68W100%0.0
11-26Weber St. (149.0)BSkyA71-77W100%0.0
11-30BYU (31.0)WCCN85-74L0%0.0
12-7Pacific (133.0)WCCH68-78L0%0.0
12-14Utah Valley (144.0)WACH71-60W100%0.0
12-19Western Illinois (290.0)SumH68-52W100%0.0
12-20UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH77-71W100%0.0
12-21Troy (285.0)SBH71-50W100%0.0
1-1Air Force (251.0)MWCA73-72L0%0.0
1-4San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH86-67W100%0.0
1-11Nevada (137.0)MWCA62-54L0%0.0
1-15Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH57-50W100%0.0
1-18Boise St. (82.0)MWCA78-74L0%0.0
1-22UNLV (108.0)MWCA62-42L0%0.0
1-25San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH69-74L0%0.0
1-28New Mexico (12.0)MWCH65-78L0%0.0
2-1Wyoming (135.0)MWCA74-57L0%0.0
2-5Nevada (137.0)MWCH83-75W100%0.0
2-8Boise St. (82.0)MWCH76-70W100%0.0
2-11Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA62-71W100%0.0
2-15UNLV (108.0)MWCH62-73L0%0.0
2-18San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA60-45L0%0.0
2-22Fresno St. (117.0)MWCH76-79L0%0.0
2-25New Mexico (12.0)MWCA67-58L0%0.0
3-1San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA58-75W100%0.0
3-5Wyoming (135.0)MWCH65-54W100%0.0
3-12Colorado St. (182.0)MWCN73-69W100%0.0
3-13San Diego St. (15.0)MWCN73-39L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC26.5126.5151.1151.110.590.59
San Diego St.MWC5.755.7585.7185.714.114.11
Colorado St.MWC5.655.6551.8551.850.210.21
UNLVMWC4.304.3058.0658.060.690.69
New MexicoMWC4.274.2780.6580.652.622.62
Boise St.MWC4.194.1960.0060.000.840.84
San Jose St.MWC4.144.1418.5218.52-2.61-2.61
NevadaMWC4.094.0946.6746.67-0.27-0.27
WyomingMWC4.084.0853.5753.570.290.29
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.333.3373.0873.081.541.54
Fresno St.MWC2.662.6646.6746.67-0.18-0.18
Air ForceMWC2.582.5833.3333.33-0.86-0.86
Weber St.BSky1.861.8662.9662.960.480.48
Southern UtahBSky1.801.803.703.70-1.66-1.66
PacificWCC1.771.7746.4346.43-0.13-0.13
Western IllinoisSum1.731.7326.9226.92-0.80-0.80
TroySB1.701.7032.1432.14-0.61-0.61
BYUWCC1.701.7065.6265.620.530.53
Mississippi St.SEC1.661.6643.7543.75-0.21-0.21
Utah ValleyWAC1.641.6464.2964.290.470.47
USCP121.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
San DiegoWCC0.320.3246.6746.67-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.300.3067.6567.650.110.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.280.2855.1755.170.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.280.2836.6736.67-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.250.2527.5927.59-0.11-0.11
UC DavisBW0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
Cal St. FullertonBW0.250.2535.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2373.5373.530.110.11
South DakotaSum0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.210.2151.7251.720.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.210.2181.8281.820.130.13
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.190.1976.4776.470.100.10
PepperdineWCC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1863.3363.330.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
IdahoWAC0.160.1645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.160.1648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
ArizonaP120.150.1588.2488.240.120.12
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1557.1457.140.020.02
OregonP120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.130.1372.7372.730.060.06
MarquetteBE0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
MississippiSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
IUPUISum0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Iowa St.B120.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
HoustonAmer0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
SMUAmer0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
DavidsonSC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
TexasB120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02