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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Utah St.

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:143.0
Current RPI:143
Expected SOS:161
Current SOS:161
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:179
Expected OOC SOS:229



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13143.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Weber St. (263.0)BSkyH72-61W100%0.0
11-16Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA55-60W100%0.0
11-19Santa Clara (202.0)WCCH60-54W100%0.0
11-22Mississippi St. (216.0)SECA71-63L0%0.0
11-26UC Davis (75.0)BWA77-70L0%0.0
12-2BYU (36.0)WCCH81-91L0%0.0
12-7USC (207.0)P12A89-84L0%0.0
12-13Utah Valley (308.0)WACA47-50W100%0.0
12-18Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACH57-56W100%0.0
12-19Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH69-56W100%0.0
12-20South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH65-68L0%0.0
12-31San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH61-33W100%0.0
1-3Boise St. (40.0)MWCA61-62W100%0.0
1-7Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA61-52L0%0.0
1-10New Mexico (172.0)MWCH60-66L0%0.0
1-17Air Force (240.0)MWCH71-59W100%0.0
1-20Nevada (306.0)MWCA54-70W100%0.0
1-24UNLV (114.0)MWCA79-77L0%0.0
1-27Wyoming (71.0)MWCH56-44W100%0.0
1-31San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA62-42L0%0.0
2-3Boise St. (40.0)MWCH63-68L0%0.0
2-7New Mexico (172.0)MWCA60-63W100%0.0
2-10Nevada (306.0)MWCH75-62W100%0.0
2-18San Jose St. (336.0)MWCA54-76W100%0.0
2-21Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH85-79W100%0.0
2-24UNLV (114.0)MWCH83-65W100%0.0
2-28Air Force (240.0)MWCA60-74W100%0.0
3-4Wyoming (71.0)MWCA76-53L0%0.0
3-7Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH70-75L0%0.0
3-12Wyoming (71.0)MWCN67-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah St.MWC26.3726.3756.4356.433.393.39
WyomingMWC5.855.8572.4172.412.622.62
UNLVMWC4.274.2753.3353.330.280.28
Boise St.MWC4.264.2675.8675.862.212.21
New MexicoMWC4.264.2648.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Air ForceMWC4.264.2644.4444.44-0.47-0.47
NevadaMWC4.234.2325.9325.93-2.04-2.04
San Jose St.MWC4.234.230.000.00-4.23-4.23
Fresno St.MWC4.204.2042.8642.86-0.60-0.60
San Diego St.MWC2.802.8075.0075.001.401.40
Colorado St.MWC2.682.6880.6580.651.641.64
Idaho St.BSky1.891.8918.5218.52-1.19-1.19
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.891.8937.9337.93-0.46-0.46
Utah ValleyWAC1.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
Weber St.BSky1.871.8740.7440.74-0.35-0.35
UC DavisBW1.811.8178.5778.571.041.04
BYUWCC1.811.8170.9770.970.760.76
Santa ClaraWCC1.801.8041.3841.38-0.31-0.31
South Dakota St.Sum1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
USCP121.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Illinois St.MVC1.701.7064.5264.520.490.49
Mississippi St.SEC1.671.6736.6736.67-0.44-0.44
New Mexico St.WAC0.350.3567.7467.740.130.13
Montana St.BSky0.310.3120.6920.69-0.18-0.18
Cal St. FullertonBW0.280.2824.1424.14-0.15-0.15
PacificWCC0.280.2832.1432.14-0.10-0.10
CaliforniaP120.270.2754.5554.550.020.02
IdahoBSky0.260.2639.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Southern UtahBSky0.250.2532.1432.14-0.09-0.09
PortlandWCC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.220.2223.3323.33-0.11-0.11
ColoradoP120.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.200.2040.7440.74-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.180.1874.1974.190.090.09
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
Washington St.P120.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1739.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
UMKCWAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.130.1393.9493.940.120.12
ArizonaP120.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
StanfordP120.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
WashingtonP120.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
Arizona St.P120.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.086.906.90-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0821.4321.43-0.04-0.04
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0583.3383.330.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0572.4172.410.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0318.7518.75-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
VCUA100.030.0374.2974.290.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00