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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


Texas Pan American

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:270.5
Current RPI:80
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:121
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:149



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-11130.50.06%
15-12147.20.17%
14-13162.90.79%
13-14181.42.38%
12-15203.75.98%
11-16225.910.02%
10-17247.216.05%
9-18270.018.55%
8-19288.317.72%
7-20304.613.88%
6-21318.28.48%
5-22329.94.18%
4-23336.81.37%
3-24341.90.29%
2-25347.30.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Pan American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UTSA (296.6)CUSAA62-63W100%0.0
11-26Utah (28.1)P12A85-48L0%0.0
11-28Alabama St. (222.7)SWACN0-030%-6.2
11-29North Dakota (179.2)BSkyN0-027%-7.2
12-4Houston (141.1)AmerA0-010%-15.3
12-6Sam Houston St. (151.6)SlndA0-013%-13.2
12-13Lamar (282.9)SlndH0-063%4.0
12-17Saint Louis (170.8)A10A0-015%-12.5
12-19Creighton (67.3)BEA0-04%-21.5
12-21Nebraska Omaha (221.7)SumA0-020%-10.0
12-30Duquesne (145.2)A10A0-011%-14.6
1-2Kent St. (92.1)MACA0-07%-17.3
1-10Chicago St. (319.6)WACH0-070%6.3
1-12UTSA (296.6)CUSAH0-058%2.3
1-15Seattle (260.5)WACA0-024%-8.6
1-17Cal St. Bakersfield (292.6)WACA0-032%-5.7
1-22Utah Valley (214.9)WACH0-047%-0.8
1-24Grand Canyon (281.9)WACH0-051%0.5
1-31New Mexico St. (79.3)WACA0-05%-20.1
2-5UMKC (255.0)WACA0-025%-7.9
2-7Chicago St. (319.6)WACA0-047%-0.9
2-12Cal St. Bakersfield (292.6)WACH0-055%1.5
2-14Seattle (260.5)WACH0-045%-1.4
2-19Grand Canyon (281.9)WACA0-029%-6.7
2-21Utah Valley (214.9)WACA0-025%-8.0
2-28New Mexico St. (79.3)WACH0-014%-13.0
3-7UMKC (255.0)WACH0-048%-0.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Pan American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Pan American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Pan American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas Pan AmericanWAC32.2926.4370.0035.8312.92-7.49
Chicago St.WAC0.004.560.0017.23-0.00-2.99
UMKCWAC0.004.5420.0040.87-0.00-0.83
SeattleWAC0.004.5225.0043.64-0.00-0.57
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.5040.0045.34-0.00-0.42
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.5050.0069.450.001.75
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.5020.0037.05-0.00-1.16
Utah ValleyWAC0.004.4975.0049.730.00-0.02
UTSACUSA25.003.7050.0031.260.00-1.39
Nebraska OmahaSum0.002.0950.0049.640.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.001.9533.3350.46-0.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.9250.0064.190.000.55
UtahP1225.001.9266.6772.768.330.87
LamarSlnd0.001.9225.0036.23-0.00-0.53
CreightonBE0.001.92100.0060.300.000.40
Saint LouisA100.001.9275.0045.490.00-0.17
Alabama St.SWAC0.001.920.0062.78-0.000.49
DuquesneA100.001.92100.0052.700.000.10
HoustonAmer0.001.8566.6759.660.000.36
Kent St.MAC0.001.8575.0065.290.000.57
Idaho St.BSky0.000.300.0023.57-0.00-0.16
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2933.3354.85-0.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.2750.0045.170.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.270.0030.50-0.00-0.10
South DakotaSum0.000.270.0038.79-0.00-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.000.26100.0069.210.000.10
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.23100.0052.770.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2180.0074.820.000.10
RiceCUSA0.000.2025.0028.63-0.00-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.2033.3352.29-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.200.0016.54-0.00-0.14
Montana St.BSky0.000.200.0020.51-0.00-0.12
New MexicoMWC0.000.1960.0056.430.000.02
Texas St.SB4.170.1866.6748.061.39-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.170.0041.21-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1716.6732.00-0.00-0.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.170.0023.72-0.00-0.09
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.170.0022.17-0.00-0.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.1775.0039.180.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.160.0051.90-0.000.01
UC RiversideBW3.120.160.0023.83-3.12-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1425.0068.20-0.000.05
UC DavisBW0.000.14100.0052.620.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.1433.3351.33-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1480.0072.400.000.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1466.6751.730.000.00
WashingtonP120.000.14100.0057.930.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1320.0050.32-0.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.000.1360.0055.000.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1340.0045.07-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.13100.0076.220.000.07
Washington St.P120.000.1325.0022.65-0.00-0.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.13100.0057.180.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1350.0047.410.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.1360.0053.400.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.13100.0059.990.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1375.0071.300.000.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.130.0028.59-0.00-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1340.0038.51-0.00-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1340.0047.94-0.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.1340.0060.45-0.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.1366.6725.500.00-0.06
MarquetteBE0.000.1360.0039.990.00-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.000.1375.0064.570.000.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0019.02-0.00-0.08
Miami OHMAC0.000.1340.0026.71-0.00-0.06
Wichita St.MVC0.000.13100.0083.180.000.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.110.0040.56-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0015.46-0.00-0.07
ArkansasSEC0.000.11100.0079.690.000.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.110.0047.66-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.1050.0055.020.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.1025.0026.73-0.00-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.000.1025.0052.78-0.000.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.170.1050.0042.050.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.1080.0056.380.000.01
Iowa St.B120.000.1075.0061.130.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.1050.0065.590.000.03
CaliforniaP120.000.1080.0070.550.000.04
DavidsonA100.000.1066.6764.030.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.1075.0069.240.000.04
San Diego St.MWC3.120.1083.3384.392.080.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.42-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1075.0052.070.000.00
George MasonA100.000.1020.0022.17-0.00-0.05
Kansas St.B120.000.1050.0046.120.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.1066.6756.430.000.01
VCUA100.000.1080.0073.390.000.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.1066.6751.540.000.00
Ball St.MAC3.120.1033.3346.51-1.04-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.10100.0055.370.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.1066.6773.130.000.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1020.0031.46-0.00-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1060.0040.420.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1050.0040.660.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.260.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0055.660.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0032.17-0.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0033.90-0.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.98-0.00-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0720.0043.38-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0740.0037.90-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0733.3337.74-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.0017.77-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0733.3364.43-0.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0035.74-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0030.59-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0050.53-0.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0720.0035.95-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0760.0067.380.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0733.3337.71-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.070.0039.39-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0750.0045.460.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6750.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0780.0074.880.000.03
TCUB120.000.07100.0058.380.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0720.0037.96-0.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0775.0051.700.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0019.53-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0750.0060.380.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.070.0023.13-0.00-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.000.0760.0068.290.000.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0078.500.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.0771.4356.020.000.01
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0056.960.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6762.480.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0740.0030.22-0.00-0.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0783.3369.110.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0716.6726.26-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0740.0047.99-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.000.060.0026.23-0.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.06100.0056.910.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3366.830.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0036.580.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0675.0052.330.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.680.000.02
BaylorB120.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0620.0031.24-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0052.810.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.06100.0062.000.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0060.510.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0069.610.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0625.0035.86-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0089.470.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.0633.3360.46-0.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0620.0034.53-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.39-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0666.6752.280.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3335.99-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0675.0055.470.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.060.0029.60-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0650.0037.530.00-0.02
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6739.850.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3366.19-0.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0666.6741.780.00-0.01
UCLAP120.000.0666.6758.390.000.01
USCP120.000.0650.0029.750.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0675.0057.260.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0053.140.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.06100.0069.490.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.730.000.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0475.0069.010.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0425.0031.20-0.00-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.040.0036.05-0.00-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0340.0032.81-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.260.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0068.660.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.0380.0077.100.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.0333.3345.53-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0325.0023.91-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0325.0045.04-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0333.3348.86-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0314.2930.86-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0325.0043.15-0.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0030.12-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0077.870.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0383.3348.340.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0360.0057.910.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3347.83-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0325.0045.71-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0360.0041.750.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0380.0063.470.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.630.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3329.78-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0045.140.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.60-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0333.3367.57-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0047.680.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.0360.0063.290.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0036.81-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0380.0071.340.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0053.730.000.00
VermontAE0.000.0350.0064.890.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0048.100.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.000.0380.0070.930.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0053.040.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.030.0067.79-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0380.0070.540.000.01