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Through games of Mar 1, 2015.


Texas Pan American

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:333.7
Current RPI:333
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:332
Current Record:6-19
Expected Record:6-20
Current Conf Record:3-9
Expected Conf Record:3-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.54%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-15
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:244



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-19331.137.06%
6-20335.262.94%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Pan American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17UTSA (224.7)CUSAA62-63W100%0.0
11-26Utah (13.0)P12A85-48L0%0.0
11-28Alabama St. (246.5)SWACN79-91L0%0.0
11-29North Dakota (300.0)BSkyN78-60W100%0.0
12-4Houston (270.3)AmerA72-58L0%0.0
12-6Sam Houston St. (89.3)SlndA78-59L0%0.0
12-13Lamar (219.4)SlndH66-60W100%0.0
12-17Saint Louis (254.6)A10A75-69L0%0.0
12-19Creighton (133.1)BEA75-60L0%0.0
12-21Nebraska Omaha (303.3)SumA77-72L0%0.0
12-30Duquesne (243.4)A10A78-72L0%0.0
1-2Kent St. (100.2)MACA74-54L0%0.0
1-10Chicago St. (331.6)WACH64-59W100%0.0
1-12UTSA (224.7)CUSAH43-68L0%0.0
1-15Seattle (288.9)WACA70-47L0%0.0
1-17Cal St. Bakersfield (297.6)WACA66-53L0%0.0
1-22Utah Valley (307.2)WACH54-72L0%0.0
1-24Grand Canyon (279.0)WACH73-72W100%0.0
1-31New Mexico St. (116.3)WACA53-48L0%0.0
2-5UMKC (281.5)WACA70-45L0%0.0
2-7Chicago St. (331.6)WACA78-73L0%0.0
2-12Cal St. Bakersfield (297.6)WACH54-66L0%0.0
2-14Seattle (288.9)WACH68-57W100%0.0
2-19Grand Canyon (279.0)WACA64-59L0%0.0
2-21Utah Valley (307.2)WACA72-49L0%0.0
3-7UMKC (281.5)WACH0-038%-3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Pan American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Pan American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Pan American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas Pan AmericanWAC26.4126.3825.2625.01-13.06-13.18
Chicago St.WAC4.784.6716.0015.44-3.25-3.23
UMKCWAC2.864.6537.0437.04-0.74-1.20
SeattleWAC4.704.6347.8347.52-0.20-0.23
Grand CanyonWAC4.684.6150.0050.350.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.674.6132.0033.08-1.68-1.56
Utah ValleyWAC4.674.6025.0025.60-2.34-2.25
UTSACUSA4.003.8543.4845.52-0.52-0.34
New Mexico St.WAC2.752.7561.5462.910.630.71
Nebraska OmahaSum2.192.1734.6235.35-0.67-0.63
North DakotaBSky2.082.0324.0024.66-1.08-1.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.042.0073.9173.380.980.93
UtahP122.082.0076.9278.041.121.12
LamarSlnd2.041.9947.8346.29-0.09-0.15
CreightonBE2.071.9942.8641.52-0.30-0.34
Saint LouisA102.081.9933.3332.30-0.69-0.71
Alabama St.SWAC2.081.9961.9062.730.490.51
DuquesneA102.071.9932.0031.44-0.75-0.74
HoustonAmer2.001.9233.3334.14-0.67-0.61
Kent St.MAC2.001.9262.9661.700.520.45
Idaho St.BSky0.340.3115.3816.36-0.23-0.21
South Dakota St.Sum0.300.3067.8667.860.110.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.2968.0066.540.110.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.310.2824.0023.51-0.16-0.15
South DakotaSum0.300.2848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.270.2467.8669.220.100.09
Incarnate WordSlnd0.230.2461.9061.010.060.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.240.2269.2369.510.090.08
RiceCUSA0.160.2132.0031.17-0.06-0.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.240.2153.8555.980.020.03
Southern UtahBSky0.230.2130.7731.72-0.09-0.08
Montana St.BSky0.230.2121.4321.47-0.13-0.12
Texas St.SB0.200.1841.6741.69-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.200.1833.3334.53-0.07-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.1833.3334.09-0.07-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.177.697.75-0.13-0.15
North TexasCUSA0.110.1746.1544.42-0.01-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.180.1746.1544.71-0.01-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1557.1459.490.020.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1584.0084.150.080.10
UC DavisBW0.160.1580.0079.420.090.09
MontanaBSky0.160.1457.6958.420.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1475.8676.580.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.160.1426.9226.02-0.07-0.07
WashingtonP120.120.1453.5752.320.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1453.5754.690.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.150.1462.9661.630.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1461.5458.960.040.03
ArizonaP120.150.1489.6689.930.120.11
Washington St.P120.120.1442.8641.46-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1446.1547.40-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.150.1450.0049.020.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1466.6766.670.050.05
Arizona St.P120.150.1351.7252.550.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.150.1348.2848.79-0.01-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1373.0871.340.050.06
DaytonA100.150.1378.5777.420.080.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1322.2222.67-0.08-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1333.3333.33-0.05-0.04
ToledoMAC0.150.1365.5264.240.050.04
DePaulBE0.140.1340.0039.60-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.140.1339.2940.47-0.03-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.140.1367.8668.880.050.05
Miami OHMAC0.110.1339.2939.43-0.02-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.1140.7442.96-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.120.1179.3178.080.070.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.1134.7838.23-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1117.2420.21-0.08-0.06
MinnesotaB100.120.1157.1456.740.020.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1124.0024.00-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.120.1140.0040.15-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.110.1065.5264.540.040.03
Iowa St.B120.080.1071.4370.550.030.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.120.1057.1457.140.020.01
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1053.5753.570.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1050.0050.770.000.00
CaliforniaP120.110.1058.6255.620.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1075.0075.360.060.05
SMUAmer0.110.1078.5778.530.060.06
DavidsonA100.070.1076.9276.700.040.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1062.0762.640.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.1055.5656.790.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.103.574.56-0.10-0.09
Kansas St.B120.070.1050.0048.820.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.110.1089.6689.660.090.08
George MasonA100.110.1029.6328.88-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.110.1073.0872.290.050.04
VCUA100.110.1072.4172.030.050.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.1042.8642.04-0.01-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.110.1075.0073.770.050.05
HarvardIvy0.110.1075.0075.290.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Indiana St.MVC0.070.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.1028.5728.57-0.03-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.110.1023.0824.74-0.06-0.05
TulsaAmer0.110.1077.7875.110.060.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.0829.1730.80-0.04-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0815.3814.80-0.06-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.080.001.25-0.05-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0835.7138.37-0.01-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.090.0844.4443.53-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0725.9325.34-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0724.1423.76-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.MWC0.080.070.000.17-0.08-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0753.8554.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0728.5731.49-0.04-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0718.1820.75-0.05-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0754.5554.790.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0729.6331.53-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0744.8346.86-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.080.0740.7440.36-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0724.0025.00-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0733.3331.68-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0778.5779.260.050.04
TCUB120.080.0758.6257.150.010.01
UABCUSA0.080.0753.5754.380.010.01
UNLVMWC0.080.0753.5754.430.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0744.4443.81-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0767.8668.250.030.03
Green BayHorz0.070.0775.0075.000.040.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0760.7160.840.020.01
High PointBSth0.070.0770.3770.370.030.03
IPFWSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0782.7681.280.050.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.040.0730.7731.67-0.01-0.02
La SalleA100.070.0751.7251.500.000.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0758.6257.160.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0758.6259.650.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0742.8641.90-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0729.6331.52-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.040.0755.1755.170.000.01
ColoradoP120.070.0746.4346.72-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.0099.560.070.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.040.0725.0026.34-0.02-0.03
SamfordSC0.040.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0735.7135.71-0.01-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0760.0060.820.010.01
USCP120.070.0737.9337.15-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.040.0762.9662.960.010.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0755.5655.060.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0746.4345.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
KansasB120.070.0779.3177.530.040.04
AkronMAC0.040.0660.7160.050.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0668.9768.270.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.040.0640.7440.42-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0658.6256.820.010.01
OhioMAC0.070.0633.3333.19-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.070.0625.0026.97-0.04-0.03
TulaneAmer0.040.0648.1548.96-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.070.0640.7440.68-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.070.0672.4171.600.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0666.6765.970.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0668.9767.730.030.02
Seton HallBE0.070.0657.1455.580.010.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0667.8665.680.020.02
VillanovaBE0.030.0693.1092.710.030.05
XavierBE0.030.0660.0060.270.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0462.0762.070.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0438.4639.08-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.040.0472.4171.340.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0471.4369.990.020.01
WoffordSC0.040.0479.3179.310.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.040.0342.3142.08-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.040.0375.0074.800.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0382.1481.280.020.02
DrakeMVC0.040.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0346.1546.10-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.040.0344.0044.87-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.040.0356.6757.710.010.01
NevadaMWC0.040.0326.9225.66-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.040.0354.1754.180.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0390.0090.000.030.03
Penn St.B100.040.0351.7249.620.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.040.0362.0761.400.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0353.3353.330.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
StetsonASun0.040.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.040.0357.6958.360.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.040.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.040.0370.3768.780.020.01
BYUWCC0.040.0372.4172.410.020.01
OregonP120.040.0372.4171.800.020.01
Oregon St.P120.040.0357.1456.760.010.00
StanfordP120.040.0364.2961.970.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.040.0374.0775.600.020.02
BradleyMVC0.040.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.040.0360.7160.300.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0352.0052.010.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.040.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0339.2939.32-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.040.0324.1423.70-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.040.0385.7185.710.030.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0342.3142.97-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0328.5728.64-0.02-0.01
TempleAmer0.040.0368.9768.620.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0343.3342.03-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.040.0357.1457.450.010.00
VermontAE0.040.0357.1457.140.010.00
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0359.2658.300.010.01
YaleIvy0.040.0370.3768.760.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0365.5264.790.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.450.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0371.4370.330.010.01