Texas Pan American

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	307.3
Current RPI:	306
Expected SOS:	267
Current SOS:	213
Current Record:	4-17
Expected Record:	7-20
Current Conf Record:	3-2
Expected Conf Record:	5-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-8
Current OOC Record:	1-15
Expected OOC Record:	1-16
Expected OOC RPI:	320
Expected OOC SOS:	152

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-17	263.8	0.33%
9-18	279.8	4.07%
8-19	292.9	17.50%
7-20	303.9	32.61%
6-21	314.6	30.70%
5-22	324.1	12.86%
4-23	331.7	1.92%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Pan American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	DePaul (188.9)	BE	A	91-72	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Northwestern (57.2)	B10	A	60-36	L	0%	0.0
11-18	South Carolina Upstate (156.6)	ASun	H	66-70	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	H	79-77	W	100%	0.0
11-20	Toledo (275.3)	MAC	H	54-64	L	0%	0.0
11-25	South Carolina Upstate (156.6)	ASun	A	78-63	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	A	92-60	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Ohio St. (3.4)	B10	A	64-35	L	0%	0.0
12-5	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	A	60-49	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	61-59	L	0%	0.0
12-21	St. John's (153.5)	BE	A	66-61	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	H	56-83	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Tulane (174.4)	CUSA	H	42-53	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	A	72-57	L	0%	0.0
1-9	Air Force (174.2)	MWC	A	67-50	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Texas Christian (124.2)	MWC	A	88-58	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Chicago St. (333.6)	GWC	A	65-72	W	100%	0.0
1-21	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	A	58-57	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	H	81-71	W	100%	0.0
2-2	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	H	69-77	L	0%	0.0
2-4	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	70-58	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	H	0-0		40%	-2.9
2-16	NJ Inst of Technology (294.0)	GWC	H	0-0		61%	3.2
2-18	Chicago St. (333.6)	GWC	H	0-0		79%	8.6
2-25	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	A	0-0		17%	-10.3
2-27	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	0-0		24%	-7.8
3-3	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	A	0-0		44%	-1.8

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Pan American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas Pan American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas Pan American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas Pan American	GWC	26.40	26.46	18.39	24.13	-16.69	-13.69
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	2.72	4.43	29.41	35.71	-1.12	-1.27
Chicago St.	GWC	2.80	4.38	9.52	12.98	-2.27	-3.24
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.80	4.37	26.32	28.50	-1.33	-1.88
Utah Valley	GWC	2.63	4.27	52.38	55.02	0.13	0.43
North Dakota	GWC	2.61	4.26	35.29	41.57	-0.77	-0.72
Texas Arlington	Slnd	4.94	3.88	73.68	74.21	2.34	1.88
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.45	3.85	45.45	45.30	-0.22	-0.36
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	4.93	3.80	52.38	53.60	0.23	0.27
Texas St.	Slnd	2.71	2.18	23.53	28.67	-1.44	-0.93
Toledo	MAC	2.60	2.02	35.00	38.72	-0.78	-0.45
Air Force	MWC	2.55	2.01	44.44	39.82	-0.28	-0.41
Lamar	Slnd	2.60	2.01	60.00	66.13	0.52	0.65
Ohio St.	B10	2.60	2.01	86.96	84.92	1.92	1.40
DePaul	BE	2.49	1.98	45.45	40.19	-0.23	-0.39
Army	Pat	2.51	1.96	38.10	39.52	-0.60	-0.41
Texas Christian	MWC	2.50	1.96	55.00	47.76	0.25	-0.09
St. John's	BE	2.43	1.91	40.91	38.25	-0.44	-0.45
Northwestern	B10	2.43	1.91	61.90	56.34	0.58	0.24
Tulane	CUSA	2.38	1.85	60.00	57.08	0.48	0.26
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.28	81.82	81.02	0.16	0.17
Wyoming	MWC	0.23	0.27	76.19	70.71	0.12	0.11
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.35	0.27	25.00	23.73	-0.18	-0.14
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.18	0.26	26.32	29.85	-0.09	-0.11
Longwood	ind	0.12	0.26	28.57	25.79	-0.05	-0.12
Houston	CUSA	0.30	0.24	47.62	44.58	-0.01	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.25	0.23	44.44	48.16	-0.03	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.24	0.23	17.39	20.75	-0.15	-0.14
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.24	0.23	57.14	60.72	0.03	0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.17	0.21	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.16	0.21	65.00	66.71	0.05	0.07
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.17	0.20	82.61	81.43	0.11	0.13
Rice	CUSA	0.29	0.20	47.62	46.51	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.20	85.71	78.11	0.12	0.11
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.20	65.22	63.65	0.05	0.05
Tulsa	CUSA	0.28	0.19	60.87	59.05	0.06	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.22	0.19	47.83	47.36	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.21	0.19	69.57	61.84	0.08	0.04
Creighton	MVC	0.17	0.17	84.00	82.62	0.11	0.11
Cal Poly	BW	0.16	0.17	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.17	0.16	80.95	77.45	0.11	0.09
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.23	0.16	27.78	29.77	-0.10	-0.07
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.16	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.12	0.16	55.00	54.45	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.17	0.16	27.78	29.51	-0.08	-0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.16	0.16	5.26	7.29	-0.15	-0.14
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.26	0.16	34.78	38.43	-0.08	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.16	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.16	48.00	48.07	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.16	0.16	69.57	65.37	0.06	0.05
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.15	31.82	32.98	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.15	73.91	75.47	0.06	0.08
Western Illinois	Sum	0.13	0.15	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.12	0.14	34.78	35.19	-0.04	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.14	71.43	73.99	0.05	0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.14	30.00	33.22	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.14	36.36	40.96	-0.02	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.14	30.43	29.49	-0.05	-0.06
Lafayette	Pat	0.12	0.14	43.48	42.98	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.11	0.14	42.86	43.52	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.14	21.05	22.46	-0.06	-0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.14	69.57	69.00	0.04	0.05
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.14	35.00	37.55	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.11	0.14	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.11	0.14	22.22	32.99	-0.06	-0.05
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.17	0.14	56.52	55.97	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.14	42.86	41.08	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.14	66.67	60.84	0.04	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.13	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.13	63.64	63.17	0.03	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.16	0.13	69.57	65.18	0.06	0.04
Utah St.	WAC	0.17	0.13	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.16	0.13	30.43	25.84	-0.06	-0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.13	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.13	18.18	19.91	-0.10	-0.08
Belmont	ASun	0.10	0.13	70.83	73.74	0.04	0.06
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.21	0.13	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.13	20.83	23.61	-0.06	-0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.21	0.13	8.33	10.90	-0.17	-0.10
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.13	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.21	0.13	72.00	72.22	0.09	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.10	0.13	30.43	29.57	-0.04	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.16	0.12	79.17	74.20	0.09	0.06
Nebraska	B10	0.21	0.12	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.12	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.10	0.12	69.57	66.33	0.04	0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.13	0.11	70.83	71.06	0.06	0.05
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.10	66.67	62.69	0.04	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.10	78.26	78.42	0.07	0.06
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.12	0.10	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.10	33.33	34.54	-0.04	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.10	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.11	0.10	14.29	14.31	-0.08	-0.07
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.10	40.91	38.38	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.18	0.10	62.50	62.20	0.04	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.10	9.52	13.17	-0.09	-0.07
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.10	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.11	0.10	73.91	74.94	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.17	0.10	71.43	69.05	0.07	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.17	0.09	90.91	83.90	0.14	0.06
Syracuse	BE	0.16	0.09	95.83	92.00	0.15	0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.09	40.91	39.60	-0.03	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.09	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.09	62.50	60.78	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	75.73	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.09	77.27	73.50	0.03	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.09	75.00	74.01	0.05	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	8.70	12.14	-0.05	-0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	73.91	68.65	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.07	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.07	28.57	26.31	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.06	0.07	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.07	19.05	19.39	-0.07	-0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.07	27.27	35.05	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.07	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.07	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.07	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.00	0.07	80.95	76.42	0.00	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.07	13.64	16.23	-0.04	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.07	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.07	31.82	33.75	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.07	27.27	26.96	-0.02	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.07	20.83	25.85	-0.07	-0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.07	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.11	0.07	73.91	75.03	0.05	0.03
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.07	40.91	42.03	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.07	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.07	33.33	32.18	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.07	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.00	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.07	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.06	0.07	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.07	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.04
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.07	40.91	34.45	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.11	0.07	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.07	41.67	40.47	-0.02	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.11	0.06	45.45	45.69	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	28.57	34.11	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.06	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.10	0.06	68.18	67.72	0.04	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.04	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	81.82	77.18	0.04	0.03
Samford	SC	0.11	0.06	33.33	35.20	-0.04	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.06	20.83	23.73	-0.07	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.06	80.00	76.71	0.00	0.03
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	40.91	42.97	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.06	63.64	56.68	0.03	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.06	96.00	93.53	0.10	0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.06	30.00	34.18	-0.04	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.11	0.06	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.35	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.06	80.00	76.67	0.06	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.06	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.10	0.06	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.06	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.06	82.61	79.93	0.07	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.04	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.04	81.82	81.50	0.04	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.04	26.32	28.82	-0.00	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.04	82.61	84.58	0.04	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.03	16.67	26.81	-0.04	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.04	-0.05	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.33	10.84	-0.05	-0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.00	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.00	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.03	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.00	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.03	9.52	11.47	-0.04	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.00	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.03	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.18	67.98	0.02	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.03	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.03	68.42	66.51	0.02	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	82.61	81.41	0.04	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.00	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.03	28.57	29.05	-0.02	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.03	39.13	36.12	-0.01	-0.01
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.08	-0.03	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.03	4.35	9.74	-0.05	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.03	60.87	59.85	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.03	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.03	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.03	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	18.18	23.34	-0.03	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.00	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.42	-0.04	-0.02