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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas Pan American

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:312.0
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:280
Current SOS:280
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:323
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23312.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas Pan American.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH73-77L0%0.0
11-11Houston (143.0)AmerH65-77L0%0.0
11-15Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCN81-78W100%0.0
11-16IPFW (115.0)SumN66-60L0%0.0
11-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA72-61L0%0.0
11-21UTSA (306.0)CUSAA55-70W100%0.0
11-27Lamar (344.0)SlndA61-66W100%0.0
11-30Bradley (265.0)MVCA74-54L0%0.0
12-2SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA55-49L0%0.0
12-7UTSA (306.0)CUSAH65-72L0%0.0
12-15TCU (212.0)B12A57-48L0%0.0
12-18SMU (53.0)AmerA82-56L0%0.0
12-29Duquesne (187.0)A10H69-88L0%0.0
1-2Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA91-85L0%0.0
1-4Texas A&M (148.0)SECA63-46L0%0.0
1-9Idaho (238.0)WACH85-86L0%0.0
1-11Seattle (267.0)WACH46-64L0%0.0
1-16UMKC (248.0)WACA66-78W100%0.0
1-18Chicago St. (259.0)WACA61-84W100%0.0
1-25New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA90-78L0%0.0
1-30Utah Valley (144.0)WACH53-67L0%0.0
2-1Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH64-72L0%0.0
2-6Seattle (267.0)WACA83-62L0%0.0
2-8Idaho (238.0)WACA70-63L0%0.0
2-13Chicago St. (259.0)WACH71-68W100%0.0
2-15UMKC (248.0)WACH68-59W100%0.0
2-20New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH61-78L0%0.0
2-27Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA61-63W100%0.0
3-1Utah Valley (144.0)WACA45-42L0%0.0
3-8Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH78-79L0%0.0
3-13Utah Valley (144.0)WACN83-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas Pan American's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas Pan American's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas Pan American.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas Pan AmericanWAC26.4526.4528.9328.93-11.14-11.14
Utah ValleyWAC5.695.6957.6957.690.880.88
IdahoWAC4.244.2441.9441.94-0.68-0.68
New Mexico St.WAC4.214.2171.8871.881.841.84
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.204.2037.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Chicago St.WAC4.144.1439.2939.29-0.89-0.89
UMKCWAC4.094.0937.0437.04-1.06-1.06
SeattleWAC4.084.0834.6234.62-1.26-1.26
Grand CanyonWAC4.054.0541.6741.67-0.68-0.68
UTSACUSA3.333.3320.0020.00-2.00-2.00
Tennessee TechOVC1.921.9250.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.831.8351.8551.850.070.07
HoustonAmer1.801.8050.0050.000.000.00
LamarSlnd1.791.7911.1111.11-1.39-1.39
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.781.7867.8667.860.640.64
SMUAmer1.771.7770.9770.970.740.74
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.741.7428.5728.57-0.75-0.75
IPFWSum1.721.7266.6766.670.570.57
BradleyMVC1.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Texas A&MSEC1.691.6951.6151.610.050.05
TCUB121.641.6421.4321.43-0.94-0.94
DuquesneA101.611.6139.2939.29-0.35-0.35
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2248.1548.15-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.210.2167.7467.740.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.190.1910.3410.34-0.15-0.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.180.1885.2985.290.130.13
TulsaCUSA0.180.1863.6463.640.050.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.170.1746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1793.1093.100.150.15
McNeese St.Slnd0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1678.5778.570.090.09
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Washington St.P120.160.1630.0030.00-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1581.8281.820.100.10
Idaho St.BSky0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1424.0024.00-0.07-0.07
Oral RobertsSlnd0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.140.1448.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.140.1430.7730.77-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Texas TechB120.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
South DakotaSum0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UC DavisBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1329.0329.03-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
East CarolinaCUSA0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1114.8114.81-0.08-0.08
CreightonBE0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
MemphisAmer0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
RutgersAmer0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.100.1053.5753.570.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
George MasonA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
OregonP120.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
WashingtonP120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
TexasB120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.020.0263.6463.640.010.01