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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:301.8
Current RPI:326
Expected SOS:306
Current SOS:318
Current Record:5-14
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-11
Current OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:301
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15229.70.11%
13-16243.10.80%
12-17259.53.92%
11-18275.011.99%
10-19291.023.16%
9-20305.626.54%
8-21318.220.41%
7-22327.710.38%
6-23335.72.36%
5-24340.60.32%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Marshall (101.3)CUSAA102-91L0%0.0
11-12Illinois (161.2)B10A77-74L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina Central (268.4)MEACH74-57W100%0.0
11-18Akron (213.5)MACA76-59L0%0.0
11-22Southern (302.8)SWACA69-66L0%0.0
11-26UMKC (262.9)WACH55-65L0%0.0
11-29LSU (102.7)SECA84-60L0%0.0
12-2Chattanooga (287.0)SCA66-63L0%0.0
12-5Arkansas St. (291.0)SBA78-92W100%0.0
12-16Mississippi St. (110.7)SECA92-61L0%0.0
12-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.7)SWACH74-68W100%0.0
12-28Tennessee St. (211.6)OVCH63-60W100%0.0
12-30Belmont (82.3)OVCH58-65L0%0.0
1-4Austin Peay (214.6)OVCA75-69L0%0.0
1-6Murray St. (87.3)OVCA82-68L0%0.0
1-11Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCH70-78L0%0.0
1-13Morehead St. (262.1)OVCH67-71L0%0.0
1-18Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCA80-60L0%0.0
1-20SIU Edwardsville (271.7)OVCA69-70W100%0.0
1-25Jacksonville St. (151.6)OVCA0-015%-11.3
1-27Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCA0-030%-5.9
2-1Austin Peay (214.6)OVCH0-051%0.1
2-3Murray St. (87.3)OVCH0-018%-10.4
2-8Eastern Kentucky (270.1)OVCA0-040%-2.8
2-10Southeast Missouri St. (243.3)OVCH0-057%1.9
2-15SIU Edwardsville (271.7)OVCH0-073%6.9
2-17Eastern Illinois (269.1)OVCH0-058%2.3
2-22Morehead St. (262.1)OVCA0-037%-3.5
2-24Southeast Missouri St. (243.3)OVCA0-034%-4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.3826.3028.4032.82-11.40-9.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.824.4142.1142.71-0.13-0.64
Austin PeayOVC2.994.2741.1843.79-0.53-0.53
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.074.2538.8934.19-0.68-1.34
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.074.2425.0030.97-1.53-1.61
Murray St.OVC2.924.2468.7574.721.092.09
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.854.2127.7829.22-1.27-1.75
Morehead St.OVC2.854.2018.7524.48-1.78-2.14
Jacksonville St.OVC0.802.6770.0067.660.320.94
Tennessee TechOVC0.662.6157.8952.590.100.14
BelmontOVC2.932.5870.0073.811.171.23
Tennessee St.OVC2.932.5737.5042.04-0.73-0.41
MarshallCUSA3.152.0066.6762.391.050.49
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.841.9346.6756.19-0.190.24
IllinoisB102.931.8844.4442.35-0.33-0.29
ChattanoogaSC2.781.8717.6526.04-1.80-0.90
SouthernSWAC2.921.8723.5338.86-1.54-0.42
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.701.7831.5837.68-1.00-0.44
UMKCWAC2.631.7816.6721.97-1.75-1.00
AkronMAC2.771.7843.7542.94-0.35-0.25
Mississippi St.SEC2.631.7870.5957.501.080.27
LSUSEC2.631.7558.8251.550.460.05
Arkansas St.SB2.631.7229.4132.22-1.08-0.61
Alabama St.SWAC0.360.2316.6724.26-0.24-0.12
Western KentuckyCUSA0.270.2168.4270.810.100.09
VanderbiltSEC0.280.2036.8435.57-0.07-0.06
IUPUIHorz0.220.1927.7829.83-0.10-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.220.1942.8635.24-0.03-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1855.0052.470.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.230.1852.6347.520.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.280.1852.9459.340.020.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.290.1872.2274.710.130.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1710.5316.75-0.11-0.12
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.210.1721.0539.48-0.12-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.220.1510.0019.63-0.18-0.09
South AlabamaSB0.150.1550.0045.870.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.140.1562.5058.690.030.03
MississippiSEC0.140.1552.6345.860.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.140.0010.67-0.22-0.11
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1412.5025.45-0.10-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1345.0049.29-0.02-0.00
BradleyMVC0.080.1265.0057.880.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1266.6773.210.050.06
Saint LouisA100.080.1247.3746.92-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.160.1210.5327.29-0.12-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.220.1270.0071.230.090.05
AuburnSEC0.150.1289.4777.000.120.07
NebraskaB100.150.1266.6759.820.050.02
Chicago St.WAC0.070.120.003.07-0.07-0.11
Miami OHMAC0.070.1247.0641.41-0.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.210.1225.0027.94-0.11-0.05
PurdueB100.150.1290.4888.370.120.09
TroySB0.140.1235.2942.76-0.04-0.02
IndianaB100.070.1257.8950.710.010.00
SamfordSC0.150.1227.7832.66-0.06-0.04
Oregon St.P120.140.1257.8950.840.020.00
AlabamaSEC0.150.1168.4258.980.050.02
MissouriSEC0.070.1166.6763.200.020.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.1136.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.070.1138.8943.43-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.1121.0544.26-0.04-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.1055.5656.740.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0915.7920.910.00-0.05
MarquetteBE0.150.0968.4260.550.060.02
XavierBE0.150.0985.7180.080.100.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.0918.7536.82-0.09-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0983.3384.240.050.06
Georgia SouthernSB0.140.0966.6765.370.050.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0973.6862.720.030.02
SeattleWAC0.130.0957.8954.500.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0933.3337.23-0.03-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.150.0952.6351.690.010.00
FurmanSC0.070.0966.6768.540.020.03
Georgia St.SB0.150.0966.6765.520.050.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0972.2274.930.030.04
DaytonA100.150.0947.3750.94-0.010.00
Little RockSB0.150.0922.2225.25-0.08-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0926.6729.04-0.03-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0952.6355.290.000.01
OhioMAC0.070.0947.0648.41-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0911.1117.68-0.05-0.06
ToledoMAC0.150.0966.6767.700.050.03
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0923.5325.64-0.08-0.04
UABCUSA0.140.0961.1164.130.030.02
ArkansasSEC0.150.0968.4264.200.050.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0966.6755.940.020.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0961.1151.910.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0968.4263.960.030.02
ButlerBE0.080.0666.6763.070.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.060.009.09-0.08-0.05
DetroitHorz0.080.0621.0525.97-0.04-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0647.3746.09-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.080.0621.0522.02-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0658.8262.820.010.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0668.4257.740.030.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0668.4269.250.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0616.6724.91-0.05-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0629.4133.20-0.03-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0668.4254.090.030.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0652.6358.590.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.070.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0666.6766.020.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0694.7486.140.070.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0627.7834.500.00-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.140.0678.9577.380.080.03
USC UpstateASun0.070.0611.1118.00-0.05-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.0661.1158.700.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0617.6519.300.00-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0625.0031.45-0.03-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.0620.0023.34-0.09-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0627.7838.140.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.070.0675.0070.700.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0677.7879.150.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.0646.6746.97-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0638.8946.05-0.02-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0633.3333.77-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0644.4444.920.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.370.050.04
MercerSC0.070.0644.4454.86-0.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0047.660.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0625.0028.01-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.070.0633.3336.93-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0618.7518.36-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.600.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.000.0625.0024.150.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0638.8935.37-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.070.0668.7563.690.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.140.0661.9063.140.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0637.5037.68-0.02-0.01
IowaB100.140.0647.6244.02-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0673.6865.600.030.02
FloridaSEC0.070.0673.6871.560.030.02
KentuckySEC0.070.0673.6867.970.030.02
MichiganB100.140.0676.1970.740.070.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.0083.200.000.04
North FloridaASun0.150.0631.5835.15-0.05-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.750.040.03
RutgersB100.000.0655.0046.690.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.140.0641.1838.47-0.03-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.150.0680.0078.850.090.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0672.2268.930.000.02
WisconsinB100.070.0650.0046.300.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.140.0657.8950.210.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.140.0689.4785.550.110.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0350.0052.460.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.039.5217.90-0.07-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.30-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0342.1146.00-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.080.0384.2179.750.050.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0328.5731.26-0.04-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0329.4139.63-0.03-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0327.7831.710.00-0.01
TexasB120.080.0363.1657.630.020.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.037.6920.09-0.06-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0378.9574.190.040.01
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0350.0050.860.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0365.0056.340.020.00
PennIvy0.070.0364.7162.720.020.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0373.6872.380.030.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0372.2272.980.030.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0352.9452.650.000.00
BaylorB120.070.0361.1156.090.020.00
DavidsonA100.080.0358.8261.450.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0389.4785.210.060.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0370.0068.300.030.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0345.0048.560.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0341.1839.16-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.080.0352.9460.220.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.070.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0363.1657.890.020.00
UCFAmer0.070.0368.4260.860.030.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.280.030.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.030.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0352.9452.230.000.00
WyomingMWC0.070.0361.1156.830.020.00
DePaulBE0.070.0342.1134.31-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.540.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0378.9572.990.040.01
LongwoodBSth0.070.0316.6716.16-0.05-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.250.030.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.540.020.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.630.020.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.650.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
Notre DameACC0.070.0363.1661.020.020.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0380.9576.520.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
RichmondA100.000.0331.5834.360.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0343.7549.13-0.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0322.2227.33-0.04-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0373.6865.260.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.100.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0342.1140.46-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.070.0364.7159.990.020.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.035.8819.35-0.06-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0345.0047.07-0.01-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.060.0310.5318.34-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.060.0370.0060.470.030.01
WashingtonP120.060.0370.0061.440.030.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0337.5031.76-0.02-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.070.0366.6763.420.020.01
HawaiiBW0.070.0368.7563.990.020.01
North DakotaBSky0.070.0329.4134.76-0.03-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0345.0044.47-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0333.3332.94-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0370.0070.570.030.01
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00