Tennessee Martin

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	312.0
Current RPI:	312
Expected SOS:	247
Current SOS:	247
Current Record:	7-21
Expected Record:	7-21
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-9
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	315
Expected OOC SOS:	226

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-21	312.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Arkansas Little Rock (176.0)	SB	A	84-68	L	0%
11-11	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	80-57	L	0%
11-16	Arkansas St. (163.0)	SB	H	73-77	L	0%
11-24	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	80-57	L	0%
11-29	Memphis (12.0)	CUSA	A	93-65	L	0%
12-1	Kennesaw St. (341.0)	ASun	H	65-63	W	100%
12-5	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	87-86	L	0%
12-8	Lipscomb (237.0)	ASun	A	86-62	L	0%
12-15	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	73-51	L	0%
12-19	Samford (291.0)	SC	H	62-75	L	0%
12-29	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	65-60	L	0%
12-31	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	54-64	L	0%
1-3	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	H	62-73	L	0%
1-5	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	H	76-74	W	100%
1-10	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	80-48	L	0%
1-12	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	90-53	L	0%
1-19	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	74-88	L	0%
1-24	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	A	69-56	L	0%
1-26	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	62-65	W	100%
1-31	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	72-65	W	100%
2-7	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	65-93	L	0%
2-9	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	77-68	W	100%
2-16	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	74-96	L	0%
2-21	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	83-68	L	0%
2-23	Longwood (332.0)	BSth	H	89-79	W	100%
2-28	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	A	68-69	W	100%
3-2	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	A	91-58	L	0%
3-6	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	N	73-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee Martin	OVC	26.21	26.21	23.77	23.77	-13.75	-13.75
Eastern Illinois	OVC	4.43	4.43	31.03	31.03	-1.68	-1.68
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	4.41	4.41	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
Murray St.	OVC	4.40	4.40	66.67	66.67	1.47	1.47
Austin Peay	OVC	4.40	4.40	18.52	18.52	-2.77	-2.77
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.32	4.32	30.43	30.43	-1.69	-1.69
Morehead St.	OVC	4.22	4.22	37.93	37.93	-1.02	-1.02
Belmont	OVC	2.62	2.62	79.31	79.31	1.53	1.53
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.61	2.61	73.33	73.33	1.22	1.22
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.55	2.55	51.72	51.72	0.09	0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.49	2.49	34.62	34.62	-0.77	-0.77
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.45	2.45	56.00	56.00	0.29	0.29
Lipscomb	ASun	2.09	2.09	35.71	35.71	-0.60	-0.60
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.00	2.00	37.04	37.04	-0.52	-0.52
Arkansas St.	SB	2.00	2.00	58.62	58.62	0.34	0.34
St. Louis	A10	1.91	1.91	81.25	81.25	1.20	1.20
Memphis	CUSA	1.91	1.91	87.88	87.88	1.44	1.44
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.88	1.88	10.34	10.34	-1.49	-1.49
Samford	SC	1.87	1.87	30.00	30.00	-0.75	-0.75
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	1.87	1.87	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	1.84	1.84	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Cincinnati	BE	1.81	1.81	65.62	65.62	0.57	0.57
Longwood	BSth	1.79	1.79	20.00	20.00	-1.07	-1.07
Western Kentucky	SB	0.27	0.27	55.88	55.88	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.20	0.20	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
Western Illinois	Sum	0.20	0.20	71.43	71.43	0.09	0.09
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.18	0.18	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Chattanooga	SC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Mercer	ASun	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville	ASun	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.14	0.14	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	GWC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.12	0.12	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Stetson	ASun	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.12	0.12	14.81	14.81	-0.08	-0.08
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
New Orleans	ind	0.12	0.12	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Kansas	B12	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Central Florida	CUSA	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00