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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:177.0
Current RPI:177
Expected SOS:303
Current SOS:303
Current Record:16-12
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12177.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marquette (147.0)BEA79-63L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA73-75W100%0.0
11-25Bethune Cookman (344.0)MEACA56-74W100%0.0
11-28Nebraska (158.0)B10A75-64L0%0.0
12-3Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunA56-71W100%0.0
12-6Longwood (316.0)BSthA67-77W100%0.0
12-15Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA78-81W100%0.0
12-17Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA64-54L0%0.0
12-20Presbyterian (315.0)BSthH77-60W100%0.0
12-22Butler (31.0)BEA64-37L0%0.0
12-30Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH60-63L0%0.0
1-8Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH58-66L0%0.0
1-10Morehead St. (201.0)OVCH75-72W100%0.0
1-15Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA60-63W100%0.0
1-17Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH55-52W100%0.0
1-22Belmont (105.0)OVCA72-67L0%0.0
1-24Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCH70-53W100%0.0
1-29Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH81-51W100%0.0
1-31Murray St. (63.0)OVCA65-62L0%0.0
2-5Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA64-76W100%0.0
2-7SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH64-59W100%0.0
2-12Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA98-76L0%0.0
2-14Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH67-61W100%0.0
2-19Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCA73-75W100%0.0
2-21SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA76-68L0%0.0
2-26Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA52-69W100%0.0
2-28Murray St. (63.0)OVCH67-73L0%0.0
3-5Morehead St. (201.0)OVCN65-76L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.2226.2262.6962.696.656.65
Murray St.OVC4.414.4182.1482.142.832.83
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.394.3955.5655.560.490.49
Morehead St.OVC4.384.3846.6746.67-0.29-0.29
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.344.3438.4638.46-1.00-1.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.344.3437.5037.50-1.09-1.09
Austin PeayOVC4.294.2923.0823.08-2.31-2.31
BelmontOVC2.652.6566.6766.670.880.88
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.492.4959.2659.260.460.46
Jacksonville St.OVC2.462.4635.7135.71-0.70-0.70
Tennessee St.OVC2.462.4610.7110.71-1.93-1.93
Tennessee TechOVC2.462.4637.0437.04-0.64-0.64
PresbyterianBSth1.931.9322.2222.22-1.07-1.07
LongwoodBSth1.881.8829.0329.03-0.79-0.79
ButlerBE1.871.8767.7467.740.660.66
Northern KentuckyASun1.871.8740.7440.74-0.35-0.35
Illinois St.MVC1.851.8561.2961.290.420.42
MarquetteBE1.841.8438.7138.71-0.42-0.42
NebraskaB101.821.8240.0040.00-0.36-0.36
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.821.8254.8454.840.180.18
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.811.8131.0331.03-0.69-0.69
Arkansas St.SB1.791.7937.0437.04-0.46-0.46
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.791.7925.8125.81-0.86-0.86
Southern IllinoisMVC0.400.4034.3834.38-0.13-0.13
LipscombASun0.340.3439.2939.29-0.07-0.07
North FloridaASun0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.210.2146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.200.2061.7661.760.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1828.5728.57-0.08-0.08
Missouri St.MVC0.180.1831.0331.03-0.07-0.07
Central ArkansasSlnd0.180.186.906.90-0.16-0.16
WinthropBSth0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1760.0060.000.030.03
DePaulBE0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Seton HallBE0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
VillanovaBE0.170.1794.1294.120.150.15
CampbellBSth0.160.1624.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.150.1575.8675.860.080.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.150.1559.2659.260.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
HamptonMEAC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1568.7568.750.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Green BayHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
OaklandHorz0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
TroySB0.130.1329.6329.63-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.120.1279.3179.310.070.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
IllinoisB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.1268.9768.970.050.05
LibertyBSth0.120.1214.2914.29-0.09-0.09
RadfordBSth0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1252.9452.940.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
TennesseeSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
NorthwesternB100.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
St. John'sBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
IPFWSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
High PointBSth0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
AmericanPat0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0890.9190.910.070.07
UABCUSA0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.070.0717.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.070.0748.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Georgia St.SB0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0686.6786.670.050.05
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.060.0652.9452.940.000.00
IndianaB100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01