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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:322.4
Current RPI:312
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:130
Current Record:1-22
Expected Record:3-26
Current Conf Record:0-12
Expected Conf Record:1-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:2-14
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:297
Expected OOC SOS:211



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-22291.00.01%
6-23293.20.82%
5-24303.05.93%
4-25312.218.66%
3-26321.433.25%
2-27329.730.62%
1-28335.310.70%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Louisville (21.2)BEA83-48L0%0.0
11-13Ohio (65.3)MACA74-65L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas St. (228.4)SBA63-45L0%0.0
11-22Lamar (101.7)SlndH69-80L0%0.0
11-25Mississippi St. (41.8)SECA76-50L0%0.0
11-27UAB (140.6)CUSAA54-59W100%0.0
11-30Central Arkansas (298.6)SlndH68-75L0%0.0
12-3Ball St. (220.5)MACH48-71L0%0.0
12-6Lipscomb (209.0)ASunA70-55L0%0.0
12-10Middle Tennessee (50.2)SBA78-62L0%0.0
12-18IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)SumH76-82L0%0.0
12-21Murray St. (30.8)OVCA78-54L0%0.0
12-29Tennessee St. (156.7)OVCA83-67L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee Tech (136.2)OVCH62-85L0%0.0
1-5Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)OVCH71-73L0%0.0
1-7SIU Edwardsville (304.3)OVCH65-69L0%0.0
1-12Eastern Illinois (293.1)OVCA68-55L0%0.0
1-19Eastern Kentucky (207.5)OVCA86-78L0%0.0
1-21Morehead St. (187.2)OVCA62-56L0%0.0
1-26Tennessee St. (156.7)OVCH59-72L0%0.0
1-28Austin Peay (203.1)OVCA92-73L0%0.0
2-2Jacksonville St. (250.3)OVCH74-85L0%0.0
2-4Murray St. (30.8)OVCH58-65L0%0.0
2-9Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)OVCA0-015%-11.2
2-11Eastern Illinois (293.1)OVCH0-049%-0.1
2-14Kennesaw St. (318.8)ASunA0-036%-3.9
2-18Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)SlndA0-038%-3.4
2-23Austin Peay (203.1)OVCH0-028%-6.2
2-25Jacksonville St. (250.3)OVCA0-015%-11.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.3526.276.1911.89-23.08-20.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.884.2645.0043.58-0.29-0.55
Austin PeayOVC3.054.2629.1731.79-1.27-1.55
Murray St.OVC4.934.25100.0094.134.933.75
Tennessee St.OVC4.884.1652.3849.450.23-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.894.1430.0031.29-1.16-1.55
Jacksonville St.OVC2.834.1131.8234.28-1.03-1.29
Tennessee TechOVC2.922.5759.0958.360.530.43
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.912.5347.8350.03-0.130.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.912.5322.2226.71-1.62-1.18
Morehead St.OVC2.822.5042.8645.13-0.40-0.24
Arkansas St.SB2.632.0634.7836.23-0.80-0.57
Central ArkansasSlnd2.432.0123.5326.96-1.28-0.92
LamarSlnd2.481.9760.0066.130.500.64
LipscombASun2.431.9740.9141.89-0.44-0.32
Middle TennesseeSB2.451.9682.6184.221.601.34
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.161.9127.7828.21-0.07-0.83
OhioMAC2.371.8780.9576.391.470.99
Kennesaw St.ASun0.141.848.339.07-0.12-1.51
UABCUSA2.331.8242.8641.23-0.33-0.32
Ball St.MAC2.331.8252.6355.840.120.21
LouisvilleBE2.321.8178.2673.341.310.85
IUPU Fort WayneSum2.171.7530.0029.47-0.87-0.72
Mississippi St.SEC2.221.7577.2771.351.210.75
BelmontASun0.370.3570.8373.740.150.17
Northwestern St.Slnd0.270.2855.0054.450.030.03
Western KentuckySB0.250.2834.7834.46-0.08-0.09
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.2644.4445.20-0.01-0.02
MemphisCUSA0.290.2469.5771.580.120.10
South Carolina UpstateASun0.140.2456.5256.800.020.03
Miami OHMAC0.160.2130.0034.18-0.06-0.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1925.0023.73-0.06-0.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.160.195.267.29-0.14-0.16
Kent St.MAC0.190.1871.4369.050.080.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1847.6248.81-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.250.1623.8133.67-0.13-0.05
IUPUISum0.260.1634.7835.53-0.08-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.200.1528.5734.11-0.08-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.200.1559.0959.780.040.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.158.708.99-0.11-0.12
East Tennessee St.ASun0.090.1550.0052.040.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1520.8323.61-0.08-0.08
AkronMAC0.200.1568.1867.980.070.05
South AlabamaSB0.190.1552.3852.880.010.01
TroySB0.190.1528.5730.17-0.08-0.06
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.100.1334.7835.19-0.03-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.160.1352.6348.320.01-0.00
MaineAE0.100.1347.6248.01-0.00-0.01
Southern MississippiCUSA0.160.1385.7182.220.110.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.1217.3920.75-0.03-0.07
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1280.7780.770.060.08
South CarolinaSEC0.090.1240.9139.60-0.02-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.090.1269.5765.180.040.04
West VirginiaBE0.140.1266.6765.980.050.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.1247.8347.36-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1254.1754.760.010.01
MercerASun0.050.1272.0072.220.020.05
North FloridaASun0.090.1248.0048.07-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.050.1230.4329.57-0.02-0.05
Florida AtlanticSB0.140.1236.3639.73-0.04-0.02
North TexasSB0.180.1250.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.GWC0.110.109.0912.82-0.09-0.07
South DakotaSum0.100.1026.3228.82-0.05-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1030.0033.22-0.04-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1026.3229.85-0.00-0.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.1044.4448.16-0.01-0.00
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.110.1076.1975.980.060.05
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.1057.1460.720.010.02
Texas St.Slnd0.000.1022.2227.56-0.00-0.04
OaklandSum0.100.1048.0050.28-0.000.00
St. Mary'sWCC0.000.1090.9187.780.000.07
Illinois St.MVC0.150.0962.5062.070.040.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0947.6248.48-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.0956.5254.280.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.050.0938.1037.80-0.01-0.02
MissouriB120.050.0991.6787.920.040.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.0916.6726.81-0.10-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.140.0938.8941.49-0.03-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0940.9143.65-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.050.0961.9058.610.010.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0940.9138.38-0.01-0.02
St. LouisA100.140.0977.2777.700.080.05
ToledoMAC0.050.0938.1040.84-0.01-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.100.0940.9142.97-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0969.5765.370.020.03
BuffaloMAC0.100.0968.4266.510.040.03
Florida InternationalSB0.090.0933.3337.11-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0943.4844.26-0.01-0.01
DenverSB0.140.0970.8372.240.060.04
George WashingtonA100.090.0934.7832.05-0.03-0.03
KentuckySEC0.100.0996.0093.530.090.07
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0969.5765.880.050.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0963.6456.680.030.01
DetroitHorz0.090.0947.8348.88-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.0945.4544.56-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0854.1747.950.00-0.00
DaytonA100.110.0760.8760.960.020.01
IowaB100.110.0754.1749.410.01-0.00
Louisiana TechWAC0.000.0742.8643.52-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0761.9063.520.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.110.0756.5253.760.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.0773.9175.470.050.03
Southern UtahSum0.100.0745.4544.27-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0734.7832.10-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.0669.5761.840.040.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0624.0024.86-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0625.0028.48-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0628.5729.05-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.050.0618.1819.91-0.03-0.04
NorthwesternB100.050.0663.6457.790.010.01
OregonP120.050.0669.5764.490.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0668.1868.980.020.02
TulsaCUSA0.000.0660.8759.050.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0628.5735.72-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0620.8325.85-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0666.6760.840.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0652.1758.490.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0686.9683.300.070.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0680.0076.710.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0669.5770.420.040.02
Central FloridaCUSA0.050.0671.4366.550.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0644.4441.65-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0647.6246.51-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.100.0666.6768.550.030.02
ButlerHorz0.100.0650.0050.810.000.00
College of CharlestonSC0.090.0658.3359.920.020.01
CharlotteA100.050.0650.0049.460.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.100.0679.1776.620.060.03
CaliforniaP120.040.0675.0074.620.020.03
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0654.1757.110.000.01
Seattleind0.090.0622.2232.99-0.05-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0652.3853.290.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0669.5770.160.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0647.8342.19-0.00-0.01
Louisiana St.SEC0.050.0659.0957.270.010.01
PittsburghBE0.050.0662.5059.520.010.01
SyracuseBE0.000.0695.8392.000.000.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0365.0066.710.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0334.7837.18-0.02-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0314.2917.12-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0352.1750.010.000.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.060.0382.6181.430.040.02
PurdueB100.050.0362.5060.780.010.01
StanfordP120.060.0369.5768.330.020.01
Texas TechB120.000.0330.4325.84-0.00-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0365.2263.550.020.01
XavierA100.050.0365.2263.690.020.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0333.3337.16-0.02-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0336.3640.96-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.050.030.004.04-0.05-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0373.9175.030.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0368.4268.620.000.01
DuquesneA100.050.0359.0956.380.010.00
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0347.8347.08-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0322.7324.64-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.050.0331.8232.81-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0366.6763.500.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0370.8364.530.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0347.3752.90-0.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0331.8242.18-0.02-0.00
CreightonMVC0.050.0384.0082.620.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0334.7838.74-0.01-0.01
George MasonCAA0.000.0376.0072.480.000.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.050.0342.8643.11-0.01-0.00
HoustonCUSA0.050.0347.6244.58-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8366.500.020.01
LehighPat0.050.0373.9174.940.020.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.33-0.02-0.01
Longwoodind0.050.0328.5725.79-0.02-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0359.0957.690.010.00
NC GreensboroSC0.050.0334.7833.38-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0342.1145.89-0.01-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0387.5085.410.040.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0344.0045.88-0.01-0.00
Texas ChristianMWC0.050.0357.1449.570.01-0.00
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0343.4843.27-0.01-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.050.0319.0524.60-0.03-0.02
UCLAP120.050.0354.5556.780.000.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.080.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0382.6180.500.030.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0312.5013.42-0.03-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0334.7834.75-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0327.2735.05-0.00-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.000.0368.1867.720.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0331.8234.86-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0362.5061.430.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0321.7421.75-0.03-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0368.0070.060.020.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0314.2916.80-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0360.0059.090.010.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0074.010.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0341.6740.47-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.900.040.02
ConnecticutBE0.050.0365.2262.350.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.038.7012.14-0.04-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.050.0380.9577.450.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0345.4541.17-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0371.4373.450.020.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0380.0076.670.030.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.670.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0352.0048.780.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.050.0350.0046.870.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0365.2263.650.010.01
South FloridaBE0.000.0354.5548.540.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0343.4840.24-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MB120.050.0350.0045.200.00-0.00
Utah St.WAC0.050.0350.0052.950.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.8345.52-0.00-0.00