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Through games of Jan 25, 2015.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:166.2
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:304
Current Record:10-7
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:4-2
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:169
Expected OOC SOS:310



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-795.40.08%
19-8109.41.69%
18-9124.27.54%
17-10141.119.24%
16-11159.326.61%
15-12178.424.34%
14-13197.313.54%
13-14214.45.42%
12-15233.01.31%
11-16248.30.22%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Marquette (119.8)BEA79-63L0%0.0
11-17Arkansas St. (254.8)SBA73-75W100%0.0
11-25Bethune Cookman (336.1)MEACA56-74W100%0.0
11-28Nebraska (97.1)B10A75-64L0%0.0
12-3Northern Kentucky (227.8)ASunA56-71W100%0.0
12-6Longwood (320.8)BSthA67-77W100%0.0
12-15Illinois Chicago (314.6)HorzA78-81W100%0.0
12-17Illinois St. (91.0)MVCA64-54L0%0.0
12-20Presbyterian (322.7)BSthH77-60W100%0.0
12-22Butler (25.9)BEA64-37L0%0.0
12-30Maryland Eastern Shore (187.9)MEACH60-63L0%0.0
1-8Eastern Kentucky (161.2)OVCH58-66L0%0.0
1-10Morehead St. (218.3)OVCH75-72W100%0.0
1-15Tennessee Tech (215.5)OVCA60-63W100%0.0
1-17Jacksonville St. (305.2)OVCH55-52W100%0.0
1-22Belmont (128.3)OVCA72-67L0%0.0
1-24Southeast Missouri St. (268.6)OVCH70-53W100%0.0
1-29Eastern Illinois (151.2)OVCH0-065%4.2
1-31Murray St. (74.0)OVCA0-015%-11.5
2-5Austin Peay (290.8)OVCA0-063%3.8
2-7SIU Edwardsville (304.1)OVCH0-079%8.8
2-12Southeast Missouri St. (268.6)OVCA0-051%0.4
2-14Austin Peay (290.8)OVCH0-083%10.5
2-19Eastern Illinois (151.2)OVCA0-041%-2.5
2-21SIU Edwardsville (304.1)OVCA0-057%2.0
2-26Tennessee St. (338.2)OVCA0-076%8.0
2-28Murray St. (74.0)OVCH0-033%-4.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.3326.2365.0663.537.937.10
Murray St.OVC0.384.4978.9581.110.222.79
Austin PeayOVC0.234.4527.7828.31-0.10-1.93
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.394.4557.8956.930.060.62
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.334.4541.1841.81-0.59-0.73
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.394.4435.2935.17-0.11-1.32
Morehead St.OVC3.342.5936.8445.53-0.88-0.23
BelmontOVC3.092.5561.1161.620.690.59
Jacksonville St.OVC3.182.5236.8432.87-0.84-0.86
Tennessee St.OVC0.162.525.2610.13-0.14-2.01
Tennessee TechOVC3.182.5244.4447.44-0.35-0.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.172.5250.0057.350.000.37
PresbyterianBSth3.091.9518.7518.86-1.93-1.21
ButlerBE3.021.9570.0069.501.210.76
LongwoodBSth3.031.9222.2227.08-1.68-0.88
Illinois St.MVC2.941.9255.5658.070.330.31
Northern KentuckyASun3.091.9141.1845.16-0.55-0.19
MarquetteBE2.941.9150.0044.830.00-0.20
NebraskaB103.021.8961.1149.770.67-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.021.8850.0055.890.000.22
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.011.8823.5333.20-1.59-0.63
Arkansas St.SB2.941.8547.0644.89-0.17-0.19
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.941.8516.6719.34-1.96-1.14
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.4340.0037.58-0.03-0.11
LipscombASun0.310.3341.1842.85-0.06-0.05
North FloridaASun0.320.2352.6360.340.020.05
Indiana St.MVC0.220.2347.3744.59-0.01-0.02
CreightonBE0.220.2242.8638.66-0.03-0.05
Missouri St.MVC0.160.2033.3334.72-0.05-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.2020.0029.58-0.14-0.08
XavierBE0.150.1965.0063.120.040.05
DePaulBE0.230.1952.3843.060.01-0.03
CampbellBSth0.090.1722.2229.76-0.05-0.07
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.1770.5967.500.030.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.310.160.003.87-0.31-0.15
Cleveland St.Horz0.150.1652.6355.500.010.02
WinthropBSth0.240.1643.7548.21-0.03-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.160.1678.9578.220.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.080.1673.6869.170.040.06
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.1670.5977.560.030.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.390.1635.0034.24-0.12-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.240.1625.0029.95-0.12-0.06
Seton HallBE0.220.1568.4260.950.080.03
GeorgetownBE0.290.1573.6868.120.140.05
VillanovaBE0.140.1590.0084.390.110.10
PortlandWCC0.000.1452.6349.030.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1427.7829.90-0.00-0.06
UC DavisBW0.000.1475.0066.550.000.05
MississippiSEC0.080.1363.1663.590.020.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.240.1323.5344.31-0.13-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.160.1337.5037.44-0.04-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.160.1356.2555.420.020.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1368.7569.130.060.05
JacksonvilleASun0.240.1321.0521.33-0.14-0.08
LibertyBSth0.160.1311.7617.55-0.13-0.09
RadfordBSth0.160.1361.1161.380.040.03
TroySB0.080.1331.2531.62-0.03-0.05
CincinnatiAmer0.150.1373.6872.910.070.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.1357.8956.130.010.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1325.0025.65-0.08-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.1337.5045.85-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.150.1315.7917.73-0.11-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.150.1344.4444.57-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1315.7926.56-0.10-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.230.1317.6526.25-0.15-0.06
IllinoisB100.080.1361.9060.540.020.03
NorthwesternB100.230.1350.0043.390.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.240.1390.0087.200.190.09
TennesseeSEC0.220.1366.6754.680.070.01
HamptonMEAC0.080.1342.1141.46-0.01-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.230.1220.0027.23-0.14-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.150.1275.0065.760.070.04
St. John'sBE0.150.1266.6760.490.050.03
IPFWSum0.080.1135.2937.84-0.02-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.1070.5968.460.030.04
StetsonASun0.000.1011.7619.32-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.090.1036.3636.11-0.02-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1025.0025.42-0.08-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.160.1058.8258.900.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1052.9455.320.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.230.1063.1662.140.060.02
MarshallCUSA0.230.1016.6723.19-0.15-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.105.5616.70-0.15-0.06
BradleyMVC0.150.1030.0031.32-0.06-0.04
Green BayHorz0.150.1078.9577.950.090.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.1061.1158.490.020.02
OaklandHorz0.070.1033.3340.21-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.220.0984.2180.700.150.06
DetroitHorz0.150.0942.1145.86-0.02-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.090.004.38-0.00-0.09
IowaB100.150.0965.0063.290.050.02
Ohio St.B100.150.0976.1976.740.080.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0947.0649.55-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0937.5042.49-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0778.5774.830.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.075.5611.55-0.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.000.0750.0047.460.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0744.4437.38-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.080.0778.9572.070.050.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0775.0070.930.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0761.1166.570.000.02
IdahoBSky0.160.0737.5043.69-0.04-0.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0733.3330.05-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0743.7538.89-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.080.0745.0045.95-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0733.3345.66-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0761.1162.880.020.02
ToledoMAC0.160.0757.8959.400.030.01
AmericanPat0.160.0757.8959.360.030.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.0773.6872.640.080.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.160.0716.6722.12-0.11-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.0717.6523.38-0.00-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.160.0744.4441.05-0.02-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0733.3335.62-0.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.0741.1838.10-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0771.4369.460.040.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0763.1666.540.020.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0736.8435.27-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0747.0654.41-0.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0750.0051.290.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.0722.2226.65-0.05-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0781.2584.490.000.05
Texas St.SB0.080.0743.7545.96-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0761.1159.760.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.160.0642.1135.41-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.150.0641.1838.63-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0660.0056.840.020.01
DartmouthIvy0.150.0650.0050.900.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.160.0647.3750.46-0.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0690.0084.490.060.04
UABCUSA0.150.0647.3749.78-0.01-0.00
UCFAmer0.160.0644.4441.15-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0689.4787.900.060.05
Arizona St.P120.160.0650.0052.260.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0655.0061.950.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.150.0678.9579.450.090.04
UMBCAE0.150.0615.0020.06-0.10-0.04
MarylandB100.000.0685.7177.390.000.03
Michigan St.B100.150.0665.0063.900.050.02
MinnesotaB100.080.0660.0056.590.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0638.8940.92-0.03-0.01
IndianaB100.150.0675.0068.440.070.02
NJITind0.150.0652.3854.500.010.01
BYUWCC0.090.0365.0067.600.030.01
DukeACC0.090.0389.4783.700.070.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0370.5973.720.030.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0342.8642.64-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.090.0338.1040.92-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.03100.0098.450.090.03
Miami FLACC0.090.0373.6870.360.040.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0323.5327.69-0.05-0.02
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2174.910.060.02
WoffordSC0.090.0373.6873.960.040.02
AlabamaSEC0.080.0366.6760.600.030.01
DenverSum0.080.0345.0047.58-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0330.0029.56-0.03-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0340.0038.36-0.02-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0344.4434.87-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0315.7923.13-0.06-0.02
TulaneAmer0.080.0363.1653.860.020.00
UMKCWAC0.080.0331.5838.42-0.03-0.01
USCP120.080.0347.3739.98-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.070.0335.2936.78-0.02-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0361.5465.650.020.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0314.2915.35-0.06-0.02
DaytonA100.080.0384.2179.090.050.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0353.3353.280.010.00
George WashingtonA100.080.0380.0071.470.050.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0357.1458.210.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0372.2264.370.030.01
LouisvilleACC0.070.0384.2177.830.050.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0363.1661.650.000.01
MercerSC0.080.0347.3751.57-0.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.080.0333.3330.04-0.03-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0352.3854.030.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0343.7552.35-0.010.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0347.6250.23-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.080.0378.9577.550.040.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0355.0060.900.000.01
TCUB120.000.0373.6861.610.000.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0329.4131.64-0.03-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0340.0037.70-0.02-0.01
UNLVMWC0.070.0352.6354.330.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.080.0355.5653.190.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0355.5653.980.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0093.850.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0335.2941.30-0.02-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0331.2527.91-0.03-0.01
YaleIvy0.080.0364.7164.090.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.080.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0347.3742.83-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0363.1657.380.020.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0354.5565.340.010.01
MichiganB100.000.0357.8950.450.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.080.0325.0032.98-0.04-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0365.0051.820.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0370.5968.890.030.01
RutgersB100.080.0347.6237.42-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0350.0050.950.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0329.4127.44-0.03-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0325.0024.54-0.04-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.070.0336.8433.28-0.02-0.01
MaineAE0.070.0310.0012.92-0.06-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.070.0347.3749.77-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.070.0331.5832.85-0.03-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0076.050.040.02
OklahomaB120.070.0363.1664.400.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0361.1156.240.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0350.0055.600.000.00