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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:213.0
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:324
Current SOS:324
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:244
Expected OOC SOS:337



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14213.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A91-57L0%0.0
11-16Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH79-86L0%0.0
11-20Oral Roberts (148.0)SumN70-66L0%0.0
11-21FIU (270.0)CUSAN62-69L0%0.0
11-22James Madison (103.0)CAAA75-78W100%0.0
11-28Mississippi St. (154.0)SECA76-51L0%0.0
12-1UMKC (286.0)WACA74-70L0%0.0
12-9Texas Tech (36.0)B12A68-49L0%0.0
12-11UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA64-72W100%0.0
12-16Saint Louis (206.0)A10A76-82W100%0.0
12-18Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH74-70W100%0.0
12-21Alcorn St. (253.0)SWACH70-47W100%0.0
12-29Florida Atlantic (300.0)CUSAA48-57W100%0.0
1-7Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA70-78W100%0.0
1-9Morehead St. (127.0)OVCA64-58L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH96-90W100%0.0
1-16Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA82-60L0%0.0
1-21Belmont (98.0)OVCH72-82L0%0.0
1-24Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCA68-60L0%0.0
1-28Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA82-74L0%0.0
1-30Murray St. (169.0)OVCH63-59W100%0.0
2-4Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH86-77W100%0.0
2-6SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA62-79W100%0.0
2-11Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH77-64W100%0.0
2-13Austin Peay (184.0)OVCA84-85W100%0.0
2-18Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCH87-84W100%0.0
2-20SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH68-51W100%0.0
2-25Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH72-56W100%0.0
2-27Murray St. (169.0)OVCA79-55L0%0.0
3-4Morehead St. (127.0)OVCN83-70W100%0.0
3-5Austin Peay (184.0)OVCN73-83L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.2826.2859.1259.124.804.80
Austin PeayOVC5.585.5850.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC4.034.0351.8551.850.150.15
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.973.9738.4638.46-0.92-0.92
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.973.9723.0823.08-2.14-2.14
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.943.948.008.00-3.31-3.31
Morehead St.OVC3.893.8959.2659.260.720.72
Tennessee St.OVC2.352.3566.6766.670.780.78
BelmontOVC2.332.3362.0762.070.560.56
Tennessee TechOVC2.322.3262.9662.960.600.60
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.282.2848.2848.28-0.08-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC2.252.2517.8617.86-1.45-1.45
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.731.7319.2319.23-1.06-1.06
Saint LouisA101.731.7335.4835.48-0.50-0.50
UMKCWAC1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
FIUCUSA1.721.7234.4834.48-0.53-0.53
Oklahoma St.B121.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.691.6923.3323.33-0.90-0.90
Texas TechB121.691.6960.0060.000.340.34
Arkansas St.SB1.671.6732.1432.14-0.60-0.60
Mississippi St.SEC1.671.6743.3343.33-0.22-0.22
James MadisonCAA1.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
Oral RobertsSum1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Alcorn St.SWAC1.641.6448.1548.15-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.611.6137.9337.93-0.39-0.39
IPFWSum0.260.2670.9770.970.110.11
MarshallCUSA0.250.2551.5251.520.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.2379.3179.310.140.14
Alabama A&MSWAC0.230.2335.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.2270.9770.970.090.09
IndianaB100.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
LipscombASun0.210.2132.2632.26-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
West VirginiaB120.180.1876.4776.470.100.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.170.1725.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Green BayHorz0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1729.1729.17-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.160.1663.3363.330.040.04
Kansas St.B120.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
SeattleWAC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.150.1533.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.150.153.453.45-0.14-0.14
HoustonAmer0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1472.7372.730.060.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
StetsonASun0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1477.4277.420.080.08
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.140.1434.4834.48-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
UTSACUSA0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
BaylorB120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
OklahomaB120.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
TroySB0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
TCUB120.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
George MasonA100.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1272.4172.410.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.1222.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1124.2424.24-0.06-0.06
Southern MissCUSA0.110.1125.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
KansasB120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
SamfordSC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
ElonCAA0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
HofstraCAA0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0862.0762.070.020.02
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.070.0728.5728.57-0.03-0.03
WoffordSC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
CampbellBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Miami FLACC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01