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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:164.0
Current RPI:164
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:299
Current Record:19-12
Expected Record:19-12
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-3
Current OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:260



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-12164.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi (77.0)SECA86-83L0%0.0
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH88-80W100%0.0
11-18Cleveland St. (260.0)HorzH85-74W100%0.0
11-21Canisius (171.0)MAACA69-72W100%0.0
11-23Duquesne (267.0)A10A63-66W100%0.0
11-25Kentucky (3.0)SECA111-76L0%0.0
11-29Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAH82-81W100%0.0
12-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACA68-73W100%0.0
12-10Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA74-57L0%0.0
12-14Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH68-87L0%0.0
12-17Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACH97-72W100%0.0
12-20UMKC (184.0)WACA66-77W100%0.0
12-22Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA78-70L0%0.0
12-29Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH72-90L0%0.0
12-31Morehead St. (200.0)OVCH81-77W100%0.0
1-5Belmont (61.0)OVCA83-67L0%0.0
1-7Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA76-65L0%0.0
1-14Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCH79-69W100%0.0
1-19Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH82-71W100%0.0
1-21SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH75-67W100%0.0
1-26Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA79-85W100%0.0
1-28Murray St. (230.0)OVCA94-86L0%0.0
2-1Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA46-75W100%0.0
2-4Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH85-68W100%0.0
2-9Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCA81-71L0%0.0
2-11SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA73-80W100%0.0
2-18Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA90-61L0%0.0
2-23Austin Peay (261.0)OVCH76-72W100%0.0
2-25Murray St. (230.0)OVCH83-76W100%0.0
3-3Murray St. (230.0)OVCN73-67W100%0.0
3-4Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCN55-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.2726.2765.4165.418.108.10
Murray St.OVC5.645.6446.4346.43-0.40-0.40
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.064.0641.3841.38-0.70-0.70
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.993.9919.2319.23-2.46-2.46
Austin PeayOVC3.913.9134.6234.62-1.20-1.20
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.913.9144.0044.00-0.47-0.47
Jacksonville St.OVC3.903.9053.3353.330.260.26
Tennessee TechOVC2.332.3334.4834.48-0.72-0.72
Morehead St.OVC2.322.3244.4444.44-0.26-0.26
Tennessee St.OVC2.322.3251.8551.850.090.09
BelmontOVC2.322.3276.9276.921.251.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.252.2535.7135.71-0.64-0.64
UMKCWAC1.831.8348.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC1.821.8248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz1.771.7727.5927.59-0.79-0.79
Illinois St.MVC1.771.7780.6580.651.081.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.751.7525.0025.00-0.87-0.87
CanisiusMAAC1.721.7256.2556.250.210.21
MississippiSEC1.711.7159.3859.380.320.32
KentuckySEC1.711.7184.8584.851.191.19
Arkansas St.SB1.701.7060.0060.000.340.34
DuquesneA101.691.6932.2632.26-0.60-0.60
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.671.6729.6329.63-0.68-0.68
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.641.6427.5927.59-0.74-0.74
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
EvansvilleMVC0.290.2945.1645.16-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.260.2656.6756.670.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.260.2650.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.250.2568.7568.750.090.09
BradleyMVC0.240.2437.5037.50-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.220.2287.8887.880.170.17
Saint LouisA100.220.2236.3636.36-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.196.906.90-0.16-0.16
ArkansasSEC0.180.1873.5373.530.080.08
TroySB0.170.1758.8258.820.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.170.1723.0823.08-0.09-0.09
IndianaB100.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1683.3383.330.110.11
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
Indiana St.MVC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
MissouriSEC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Fort WayneSum0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
HawaiiBW0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
DetroitHorz0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.130.1322.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Mississippi St.SEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
TennesseeSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1167.8667.860.040.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.110.1176.6776.670.060.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0829.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SamfordSC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0831.2531.25-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
SienaMAAC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MaristMAAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
AlbanyAE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
BaylorB120.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
MontanaBSky0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
UCLAP120.020.0287.8887.880.020.02