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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:332.0
Current RPI:332
Expected SOS:304
Current SOS:304
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:3-13
Expected Conf Record:3-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-12
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:314
Expected OOC SOS:293



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23332.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Wyoming (135.0)MWCA78-60L0%0.0
11-10Colorado (34.0)P12A91-65L0%0.0
11-13Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA72-62L0%0.0
11-17Florida St. (54.0)ACCA89-61L0%0.0
11-20UMKC (248.0)WACH67-79L0%0.0
11-22Jackson St. (296.0)SWACH64-68L0%0.0
11-25Lipscomb (209.0)ASunH84-95L0%0.0
11-30UNLV (108.0)MWCA85-55L0%0.0
12-4Samford (313.0)SCA73-89W100%0.0
12-7Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunH79-66W100%0.0
12-16Presbyterian (349.0)BSthA70-73W100%0.0
12-19Arkansas (77.0)SECA102-56L0%0.0
12-21Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH76-80L0%0.0
12-30Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA70-65L0%0.0
1-2Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA81-68L0%0.0
1-5Murray St. (142.0)OVCA91-77L0%0.0
1-11Belmont (57.0)OVCH72-87L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH100-81W100%0.0
1-18Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA82-75L0%0.0
1-23Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCH84-77W100%0.0
1-25SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH82-87L0%0.0
1-30Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA89-66L0%0.0
2-6Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA91-79L0%0.0
2-8SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA84-78L0%0.0
2-12Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA70-79W100%0.0
2-20Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH83-91L0%0.0
2-22Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH74-77L0%0.0
2-27Murray St. (142.0)OVCH72-86L0%0.0
3-1Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH85-88L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.1526.1521.5821.58-14.86-14.86
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.294.2953.5753.570.310.31
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.164.1625.9325.93-2.00-2.00
Austin PeayOVC4.164.1630.7730.77-1.60-1.60
Eastern IllinoisOVC4.164.1630.7730.77-1.60-1.60
Murray St.OVC4.164.1656.0056.000.500.50
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.462.4670.0070.000.980.98
Tennessee TechOVC2.432.4346.6746.67-0.16-0.16
BelmontOVC2.432.4370.9770.971.021.02
Morehead St.OVC2.402.4056.6756.670.320.32
Tennessee St.OVC2.342.3414.2914.29-1.67-1.67
Jacksonville St.OVC2.342.3425.0025.00-1.17-1.17
LipscombASun2.022.0246.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Northern KentuckyASun1.871.8731.0331.03-0.71-0.71
WyomingMWC1.861.8651.7251.720.060.06
ArkansasSEC1.821.8264.5264.520.530.53
SamfordSC1.811.8134.4834.48-0.56-0.56
ColoradoP121.811.8166.6766.670.600.60
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.811.8128.0028.00-0.80-0.80
Jackson St.SWAC1.811.8133.3333.33-0.60-0.60
Arkansas St.SB1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
UMKCWAC1.781.7832.1432.14-0.64-0.64
UNLVMWC1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
Florida St.ACC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
PresbyterianBSth1.751.7513.7913.79-1.27-1.27
East Tennessee St.ASun0.350.3553.1253.120.020.02
IPFWSum0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
Western KentuckySB0.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.160.1635.7135.71-0.05-0.05
AuburnSEC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1413.7913.79-0.10-0.10
Texas St.SB0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
NevadaMWC0.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.120.1210.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.1224.0024.00-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
VanderbiltSEC0.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MercerASun0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
North FloridaASun0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.120.1280.6580.650.070.07
StetsonASun0.120.1222.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Appalachian St.SC0.110.1119.2319.23-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.110.1110.3410.34-0.09-0.09
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Utah St.MWC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.110.1170.5970.590.050.05
GeorgiaSEC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.110.1187.1087.100.080.08
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1046.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
IdahoWAC0.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
FurmanSC0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0934.6234.62-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0828.5728.57-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.06-0.06
ElonSC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
UCLAP120.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
CaliforniaP120.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0768.9768.970.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0669.7069.700.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
DavidsonSC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
WoffordSC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.050.05
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0321.2121.21-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
KansasB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01