Tennessee Martin

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	322.4
Current RPI:	312
Expected SOS:	208
Current SOS:	130
Current Record:	1-22
Expected Record:	3-26
Current Conf Record:	0-12
Expected Conf Record:	1-15
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-14
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-11
Expected OOC RPI:	297
Expected OOC SOS:	211

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	291.0	0.01%
6-23	293.2	0.82%
5-24	303.0	5.93%
4-25	312.2	18.66%
3-26	321.4	33.25%
2-27	329.7	30.62%
1-28	335.3	10.70%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Louisville (21.2)	BE	A	83-48	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Ohio (65.3)	MAC	A	74-65	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Arkansas St. (228.4)	SB	A	63-45	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Lamar (101.7)	Slnd	H	69-80	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Mississippi St. (41.8)	SEC	A	76-50	L	0%	0.0
11-27	UAB (140.6)	CUSA	A	54-59	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Central Arkansas (298.6)	Slnd	H	68-75	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Ball St. (220.5)	MAC	H	48-71	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Lipscomb (209.0)	ASun	A	70-55	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Middle Tennessee (50.2)	SB	A	78-62	L	0%	0.0
12-18	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	76-82	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Murray St. (30.8)	OVC	A	78-54	L	0%	0.0
12-29	Tennessee St. (156.7)	OVC	A	83-67	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	H	62-85	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	H	71-73	L	0%	0.0
1-7	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	H	65-69	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	A	68-55	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Eastern Kentucky (207.5)	OVC	A	86-78	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Morehead St. (187.2)	OVC	A	62-56	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Tennessee St. (156.7)	OVC	H	59-72	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	A	92-73	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	H	74-85	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Murray St. (30.8)	OVC	H	58-65	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	A	0-0		15%	-11.2
2-11	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	H	0-0		49%	-0.1
2-14	Kennesaw St. (318.8)	ASun	A	0-0		36%	-3.9
2-18	Southeastern Louisiana (325.8)	Slnd	A	0-0		38%	-3.4
2-23	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	H	0-0		28%	-6.2
2-25	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	A	0-0		15%	-11.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee Martin	OVC	26.35	26.27	6.19	11.89	-23.08	-20.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.88	4.26	45.00	43.58	-0.29	-0.55
Austin Peay	OVC	3.05	4.26	29.17	31.79	-1.27	-1.55
Murray St.	OVC	4.93	4.25	100.00	94.13	4.93	3.75
Tennessee St.	OVC	4.88	4.16	52.38	49.45	0.23	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.89	4.14	30.00	31.29	-1.16	-1.55
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.83	4.11	31.82	34.28	-1.03	-1.29
Tennessee Tech	OVC	2.92	2.57	59.09	58.36	0.53	0.43
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.91	2.53	47.83	50.03	-0.13	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.91	2.53	22.22	26.71	-1.62	-1.18
Morehead St.	OVC	2.82	2.50	42.86	45.13	-0.40	-0.24
Arkansas St.	SB	2.63	2.06	34.78	36.23	-0.80	-0.57
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.43	2.01	23.53	26.96	-1.28	-0.92
Lamar	Slnd	2.48	1.97	60.00	66.13	0.50	0.64
Lipscomb	ASun	2.43	1.97	40.91	41.89	-0.44	-0.32
Middle Tennessee	SB	2.45	1.96	82.61	84.22	1.60	1.34
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.16	1.91	27.78	28.21	-0.07	-0.83
Ohio	MAC	2.37	1.87	80.95	76.39	1.47	0.99
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.14	1.84	8.33	9.07	-0.12	-1.51
UAB	CUSA	2.33	1.82	42.86	41.23	-0.33	-0.32
Ball St.	MAC	2.33	1.82	52.63	55.84	0.12	0.21
Louisville	BE	2.32	1.81	78.26	73.34	1.31	0.85
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	2.17	1.75	30.00	29.47	-0.87	-0.72
Mississippi St.	SEC	2.22	1.75	77.27	71.35	1.21	0.75
Belmont	ASun	0.37	0.35	70.83	73.74	0.15	0.17
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.27	0.28	55.00	54.45	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.25	0.28	34.78	34.46	-0.08	-0.09
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.26	44.44	45.20	-0.01	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.29	0.24	69.57	71.58	0.12	0.10
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.14	0.24	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.21	30.00	34.18	-0.06	-0.07
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.19	25.00	23.73	-0.06	-0.10
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.16	0.19	5.26	7.29	-0.14	-0.16
Kent St.	MAC	0.19	0.18	71.43	69.05	0.08	0.07
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.18	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.25	0.16	23.81	33.67	-0.13	-0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.26	0.16	34.78	35.53	-0.08	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.15	28.57	34.11	-0.08	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.20	0.15	59.09	59.78	0.04	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.14	0.15	8.70	8.99	-0.11	-0.12
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.09	0.15	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.15	20.83	23.61	-0.08	-0.08
Akron	MAC	0.20	0.15	68.18	67.98	0.07	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.19	0.15	52.38	52.88	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.19	0.15	28.57	30.17	-0.08	-0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.10	0.13	34.78	35.19	-0.03	-0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.16	0.13	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.10	0.13	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.16	0.13	85.71	82.22	0.11	0.08
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.12	17.39	20.75	-0.03	-0.07
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.10	0.12	80.77	80.77	0.06	0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.09	0.12	40.91	39.60	-0.02	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.12	69.57	65.18	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	BE	0.14	0.12	66.67	65.98	0.05	0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.12	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.14	0.12	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.12	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.12	48.00	48.07	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.12	30.43	29.57	-0.02	-0.05
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.14	0.12	36.36	39.73	-0.04	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.18	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.11	0.10	9.09	12.82	-0.09	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.10	26.32	28.82	-0.05	-0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.10	30.00	33.22	-0.04	-0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.00	0.10	26.32	29.85	-0.00	-0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.10	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.11	0.10	76.19	75.98	0.06	0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.10	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.10	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.10	0.10	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.10	90.91	87.78	0.00	0.07
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.09	62.50	62.07	0.04	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.09	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.09	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.09	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.02
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.09	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.07
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.09	16.67	26.81	-0.10	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.09	38.89	41.49	-0.03	-0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.09	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.09	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.09	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.14	0.09	77.27	77.70	0.08	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.09	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.09	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.09	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.09	68.42	66.51	0.04	0.03
Florida International	SB	0.09	0.09	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.09	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.14	0.09	70.83	72.24	0.06	0.04
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	34.78	32.05	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.09	96.00	93.53	0.09	0.07
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.09	69.57	65.88	0.05	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	63.64	56.68	0.03	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.08	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.02	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.07	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.07	42.86	43.52	-0.00	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.07	73.91	75.47	0.05	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.10	0.07	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.06	69.57	61.84	0.04	0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.06	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.06	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.06	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.06	69.57	64.49	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.06	68.18	68.98	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.00	0.06	60.87	59.05	0.00	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.06	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.06	86.96	83.30	0.07	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	69.57	70.42	0.04	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.06	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.06	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.06	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.03	0.02
Butler	Horz	0.10	0.06	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.09	0.06	58.33	59.92	0.02	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.06	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.10	0.06	79.17	76.62	0.06	0.03
California	P12	0.04	0.06	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.00	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.05	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.06	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.00	0.06	95.83	92.00	0.00	0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.03	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.18	-0.02	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.03	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.03	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.03	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.03	62.50	60.78	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.00	0.03	30.43	25.84	-0.00	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.03	36.36	40.96	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.03	0.00	4.04	-0.05	-0.03
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.03	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.42	68.62	0.00	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.03	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.03	22.73	24.64	-0.03	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.03	31.82	32.81	-0.02	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.03	66.67	63.50	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.03	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.03	84.00	82.62	0.03	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.74	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.00	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.03	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.03	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.03	73.91	74.94	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.03	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.69	0.01	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.04	0.02
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.03	44.00	45.88	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.03	43.48	43.27	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.03	19.05	24.60	-0.03	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.03	54.55	56.78	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.08	0.03	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.03	12.50	13.42	-0.03	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.75	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.00	0.03	27.27	35.05	-0.00	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.00	0.03	68.18	67.72	0.00	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.03	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.03	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.03	21.74	21.75	-0.03	-0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.03	68.00	70.06	0.02	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.00	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.00	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.03	75.00	74.01	0.00	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.03	8.70	12.14	-0.04	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.03	50.00	45.20	0.00	-0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00