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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:172.9
Current RPI:104
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:248
Current Record:6-2
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-4
Current OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC Record:8-5
Expected OOC RPI:123
Expected OOC SOS:258



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-572.00.01%
23-661.50.08%
22-772.90.28%
21-885.50.95%
20-999.62.89%
19-10114.56.10%
18-11131.811.30%
17-12149.816.58%
16-13169.118.11%
15-14188.718.13%
14-15210.212.84%
13-16228.47.50%
12-17248.73.68%
11-18266.41.18%
10-19280.90.31%
9-20293.40.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Mississippi (120.3)SECA86-83L0%0.0
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (318.0)WACH88-80W100%0.0
11-18Cleveland St. (249.7)HorzH85-74W100%0.0
11-21Canisius (195.1)MAACA69-72W100%0.0
11-23Duquesne (228.7)A10A63-66W100%0.0
11-25Kentucky (9.3)SECA111-76L0%0.0
11-29Florida Atlantic (280.5)CUSAH82-81W100%0.0
12-1Arkansas Pine Bluff (335.5)SWACA68-73W100%0.0
12-10Illinois St. (65.6)MVCA0-09%-15.9
12-14Arkansas St. (76.0)SBH0-037%-4.0
12-17Bethune Cookman (339.3)MEACH0-089%14.6
12-20UMKC (161.4)WACA0-036%-4.2
12-22Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCA0-025%-8.2
12-29Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH0-060%3.0
12-31Morehead St. (225.6)OVCH0-061%3.4
1-5Belmont (106.9)OVCA0-020%-9.9
1-7Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCA0-022%-9.2
1-14Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCH0-070%6.3
1-19Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCH0-059%2.7
1-21SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCH0-069%6.0
1-26Austin Peay (231.2)OVCA0-048%-0.6
1-28Murray St. (137.0)OVCA0-023%-9.0
2-1Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCA0-057%2.0
2-4Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCH0-054%1.1
2-9Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCA0-038%-3.6
2-11SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCA0-049%-0.3
2-18Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCA0-050%0.0
2-23Austin Peay (231.2)OVCH0-068%5.7
2-25Murray St. (137.0)OVCH0-041%-2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC28.3526.1983.3357.5318.903.95
Murray St.OVC0.004.2550.0060.710.000.91
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.524.2250.0042.080.00-0.67
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.354.1942.8638.52-0.05-0.96
Austin PeayOVC0.004.1333.3336.35-0.00-1.13
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.004.1357.1449.960.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.002.3750.0063.760.000.65
Tennessee St.OVC0.392.3785.7169.760.280.94
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.002.3450.0051.010.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.002.3450.0046.630.00-0.16
Tennessee TechOVC0.002.3425.0026.97-0.00-1.08
Morehead St.OVC0.002.3416.6738.57-0.00-0.53
Southern IllinoisMVC0.001.9157.1448.230.00-0.07
UMKCWAC0.001.9162.5051.910.000.07
Cleveland St.Horz7.381.9033.3332.56-2.46-0.66
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC6.251.8525.0022.02-3.12-1.03
Illinois St.MVC0.001.8460.0066.880.000.62
CanisiusMAAC7.431.8442.8645.87-1.06-0.15
KentuckySEC7.431.8485.7182.225.311.18
Arkansas St.SB0.451.8275.0066.480.220.60
MississippiSEC6.251.8171.4346.792.68-0.12
DuquesneA107.481.8150.0043.430.00-0.24
Florida AtlanticCUSA6.251.7920.0031.51-3.75-0.66
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.451.7514.2932.96-0.32-0.60
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC6.251.720.0024.51-6.25-0.88
LipscombASun0.000.2812.5033.04-0.00-0.10
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.2857.1453.990.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.2842.8644.71-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.2742.8627.96-0.00-0.12
Missouri St.MVC0.000.2760.0058.590.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.2542.8651.95-0.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.390.2287.5076.230.290.11
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2142.8658.58-0.000.04
Saint LouisA100.000.2128.5723.78-0.00-0.11
Western IllinoisSum0.000.190.0016.68-0.00-0.13
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1942.8650.11-0.000.00
TroySB0.000.1942.8636.19-0.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.1837.5035.09-0.00-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1820.0022.75-0.00-0.10
IndianaB100.000.1887.5074.490.000.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.180.0013.46-0.00-0.13
Fort WayneSum0.000.1671.4370.210.000.06
HawaiiBW1.040.1550.0050.450.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1575.0070.180.000.06
Texas St.SB0.520.1550.0043.390.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.000.150.0019.67-0.00-0.09
SeattleWAC0.000.1516.6739.49-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1562.5051.790.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.1571.4357.970.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1550.0046.240.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.1557.1442.530.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.1575.0048.030.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1585.7166.190.000.05
TennesseeSEC0.000.1440.0041.12-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1242.8645.44-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.1237.5051.64-0.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1242.8660.54-0.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1266.6757.300.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1212.5030.39-0.00-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4358.920.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1233.3352.84-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1275.0086.710.000.09
DetroitHorz0.000.120.0021.22-0.00-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.65-0.00-0.04
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.490.000.06
FloridaSEC0.000.1287.5075.240.000.06
AuburnSEC0.000.1185.7157.450.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0971.4354.860.000.01
UABCUSA0.520.0950.0059.920.000.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0928.5741.52-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0925.0039.59-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.24-0.00-0.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0928.5732.62-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0942.8630.92-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0035.95-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.09100.0061.680.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.350.0925.0031.41-0.17-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.390.0942.8645.30-0.06-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0985.7174.990.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.390.0942.8638.17-0.06-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0916.6729.81-0.00-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.0940.0058.82-0.000.02
LouisvilleACC0.000.0987.5075.590.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.0966.6761.330.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0950.0066.300.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.390.0925.0034.40-0.20-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0914.2943.58-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0857.1451.790.000.00
George WashingtonA100.520.0855.5641.690.06-0.01
SienaMAAC0.520.0837.5052.01-0.130.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0857.1452.030.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0078.850.000.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.0871.4370.390.000.03
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0866.6766.180.000.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0614.2936.02-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0625.0029.54-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.520.0657.1433.230.07-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0612.5023.75-0.00-0.03
PurdueB100.000.0675.0075.340.000.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0666.6735.430.00-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0022.58-0.00-0.03
IllinoisB100.000.0662.5050.710.000.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.47-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.690.0675.0061.490.350.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0662.5058.450.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.520.0662.5043.220.13-0.01
PittsburghACC0.350.0675.0049.180.17-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5069.130.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.03
CreightonBE0.390.06100.0076.630.390.03
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
MemphisAmer0.740.0675.0055.500.370.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.350.0614.2926.74-0.25-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.520.0671.4356.250.220.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0671.4373.040.000.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0060.620.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.040.000.01
Michigan St.B100.390.0655.5658.610.040.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0625.0038.83-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0687.5068.020.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.23-0.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0614.2931.28-0.00-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0671.4359.880.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0644.4434.65-0.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.390.0671.4358.600.170.01
MonmouthMAAC0.390.0675.0070.620.200.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0625.0035.09-0.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5736.95-0.00-0.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0657.1450.420.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0371.4351.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0388.8978.400.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3379.850.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0371.4355.160.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0371.4368.050.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0342.8633.23-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0375.0071.470.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0333.3332.35-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0325.0020.78-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.67-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0385.7178.280.000.02
IowaB100.350.0337.5037.74-0.09-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0314.2938.26-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0357.1471.520.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.350.0340.0043.41-0.07-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0337.5031.23-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0350.0046.020.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.77-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.450.0357.1454.360.060.00
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0311.1148.19-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.310.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0342.8661.11-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.390.0362.5040.460.10-0.01
BaylorB120.000.03100.0076.590.000.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0342.8654.90-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0333.3332.92-0.00-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0312.5029.71-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0366.6755.540.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.350.0342.8645.94-0.05-0.00
MontanaBSky0.390.0325.0048.10-0.20-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0387.5081.960.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.390.030.0022.31-0.39-0.02
Penn St.B100.350.0366.6746.420.12-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.210.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0322.2241.71-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.350.0333.3339.94-0.12-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.390.0325.0055.33-0.200.00
UCLAP120.390.03100.0086.690.390.02
UMBCAE0.350.0380.0054.540.210.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0073.060.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01