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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Tennessee Martin

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:241.8
Current RPI:240
Expected SOS:332
Current SOS:332
Current Record:11-12
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:5-5
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:334



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12199.42.70%
16-13216.315.84%
15-14233.633.79%
14-15251.530.78%
13-16268.613.90%
12-17283.32.80%
11-18296.20.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee Martin.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Oklahoma St. (148.9)B12A91-57L0%0.0
11-16Bethune Cookman (301.7)MEACH79-86L0%0.0
11-20Oral Roberts (150.2)SumN70-66L0%0.0
11-21FIU (232.8)CUSAN62-69L0%0.0
11-22James Madison (82.6)CAAA75-78W100%0.0
11-28Mississippi St. (177.4)SECA76-51L0%0.0
12-1UMKC (274.7)WACA74-70L0%0.0
12-9Texas Tech (65.3)B12A68-49L0%0.0
12-11UT Rio Grande Valley (340.8)WACA64-72W100%0.0
12-16Saint Louis (201.5)A10A76-82W100%0.0
12-18Arkansas St. (240.5)SBH74-70W100%0.0
12-21Alcorn St. (281.1)SWACH70-47W100%0.0
12-29Florida Atlantic (280.0)CUSAA48-57W100%0.0
1-7Eastern Kentucky (197.3)OVCA70-78W100%0.0
1-9Morehead St. (161.7)OVCA64-58L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee Tech (97.9)OVCH96-90W100%0.0
1-16Jacksonville St. (304.6)OVCA82-60L0%0.0
1-21Belmont (84.1)OVCH72-82L0%0.0
1-24Southeast Missouri St. (332.1)OVCA68-60L0%0.0
1-28Eastern Illinois (255.4)OVCA82-74L0%0.0
1-30Murray St. (186.9)OVCH63-59W100%0.0
2-4Austin Peay (240.7)OVCH86-77W100%0.0
2-6SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCA62-79W100%0.0
2-11Southeast Missouri St. (332.1)OVCH0-086%11.8
2-13Austin Peay (240.7)OVCA0-043%-1.9
2-18Eastern Illinois (255.4)OVCH0-067%4.9
2-20SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCH0-078%8.5
2-25Tennessee St. (163.9)OVCH0-052%0.5
2-27Murray St. (186.9)OVCA0-028%-6.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee Martin's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Tennessee Martin's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Tennessee Martin.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Tennessee MartinOVC26.1226.2054.2953.992.242.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.704.1918.1821.41-1.72-2.40
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.654.169.5212.50-2.15-3.12
Austin PeayOVC2.604.1439.1341.43-0.57-0.71
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.604.1338.1041.71-0.62-0.68
Murray St.OVC2.604.1347.6250.77-0.120.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.652.3854.1751.980.220.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.532.3766.6763.180.180.63
Morehead St.OVC2.652.3747.6250.52-0.130.02
BelmontOVC2.602.3565.2265.350.790.72
Jacksonville St.OVC2.602.3521.7421.65-1.47-1.33
Tennessee TechOVC2.602.3471.4369.251.110.90
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.281.8515.0016.07-1.59-1.26
UMKCWAC2.321.8525.0030.01-1.16-0.74
FIUCUSA2.321.8438.1043.34-0.55-0.25
Saint LouisA102.271.8238.1034.63-0.54-0.56
Oklahoma St.B122.281.8143.4840.33-0.30-0.35
Florida AtlanticCUSA2.271.8123.8128.16-1.19-0.79
Texas TechB122.271.8157.1451.560.320.06
Mississippi St.SEC2.281.7938.1038.60-0.54-0.41
Arkansas St.SB2.221.7945.0040.59-0.22-0.34
James MadisonCAA2.271.7873.9171.901.090.78
Oral RobertsSum2.271.7836.3638.93-0.62-0.39
Alcorn St.SWAC2.171.7642.1141.85-0.34-0.29
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.171.7228.5733.87-0.93-0.56
Grand CanyonWAC0.310.2682.6181.140.200.16
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.2536.8442.90-0.07-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.2471.4369.420.080.09
IPFWSum0.230.2470.8368.570.100.09
MarshallCUSA0.330.2450.0051.180.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.2272.0070.510.090.09
LipscombASun0.230.2125.0029.27-0.12-0.09
West VirginiaB120.230.2082.6179.560.150.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.200.2065.2268.620.060.07
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1927.7829.14-0.06-0.08
IndianaB100.200.1979.1774.020.120.09
UTEPCUSA0.200.1852.1751.940.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.240.1839.1337.73-0.05-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.150.164.357.73-0.14-0.14
HoustonAmer0.150.1669.5766.530.060.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.150.1633.3335.08-0.05-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.1656.5256.320.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1675.0076.230.070.08
Green BayHorz0.150.1654.5556.000.010.02
StetsonASun0.100.1523.8127.69-0.05-0.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1525.0033.17-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.200.1565.2267.160.060.05
UABCUSA0.140.1582.6179.410.090.09
OklahomaB120.140.1486.9682.610.100.09
BaylorB120.190.1472.7366.460.090.05
Kansas St.B120.140.1460.8758.370.030.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1366.6767.690.050.05
SeattleWAC0.160.1347.6245.00-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1333.3334.94-0.05-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1354.1750.940.010.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.210.1350.0054.210.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1359.0959.640.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.200.1263.6462.150.050.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1277.2776.870.080.07
DaytonA100.100.1286.3682.380.070.08
MississippiSEC0.100.1265.2259.020.030.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1225.0025.09-0.08-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1224.0025.69-0.08-0.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1276.1973.410.070.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.1276.1972.290.050.05
TroySB0.150.1223.8126.67-0.08-0.06
UTSACUSA0.100.1213.6413.62-0.07-0.09
ArkansasSEC0.150.1252.1755.940.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1228.5726.96-0.06-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1245.4546.27-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.140.1254.5554.490.010.01
George MasonA100.140.1134.7834.14-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.090.1173.9170.050.050.05
KansasB120.090.1181.8277.600.060.06
TCUB120.140.1145.8339.31-0.01-0.02
TexasB120.140.1166.6762.220.050.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.110.1015.0018.08-0.08-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1020.0022.32-0.06-0.05
Portland St.BSky0.100.0931.5837.72-0.04-0.02
South DakotaSum0.150.0941.6741.24-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.0928.5733.37-0.04-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0939.1338.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.100.0938.8938.50-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0963.6459.220.030.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.140.0959.0959.350.030.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0961.9056.690.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.100.0952.1751.960.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.100.0961.9065.300.020.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0945.4554.11-0.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.150.0931.5831.99-0.05-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.100.0947.8346.89-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.150.0926.0927.81-0.07-0.04
SamfordSC0.090.0941.6742.60-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.150.0933.3334.19-0.05-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0986.3679.140.070.05
Arkansas Little RockSB0.100.0990.4886.880.080.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.0938.1037.70-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0952.1754.150.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0956.5260.010.010.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0959.0953.040.020.01
ElonCAA0.140.0952.1750.420.010.00
HofstraCAA0.140.0965.2264.210.040.02
NortheasternCAA0.090.0945.8346.64-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0965.2259.750.030.02
IowaB100.100.0782.6180.590.070.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0652.3847.040.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0660.8760.780.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0656.5257.280.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.069.0917.12-0.04-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.270.010.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0656.5257.000.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.100.0679.1776.080.060.03
Miami FLACC0.100.0681.8276.750.060.03
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0686.9686.690.070.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0621.7423.39-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.100.0631.8230.47-0.04-0.02
ButlerBE0.050.0669.5767.170.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0628.5729.64-0.02-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.800.000.00
IUPUISum0.050.0640.0039.79-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0666.6763.440.020.02
USCP120.050.0678.2673.050.030.03
DavidsonA100.100.0660.0057.950.020.01
LSUSEC0.100.0665.2260.250.030.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0626.0929.19-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0630.0034.56-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.0634.7840.93-0.03-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0640.0039.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0657.8956.080.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0650.0049.850.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0657.8961.750.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0642.8646.36-0.01-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0671.4368.720.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0629.1733.14-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0633.3333.02-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0656.5262.790.010.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0628.5729.68-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.100.0652.3845.690.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.550.020.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0681.8283.040.060.04
WoffordSC0.050.0643.4846.23-0.01-0.00
TulsaAmer0.090.0665.2261.430.030.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0614.2920.64-0.07-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.090.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.100.0669.5764.850.040.02
MissouriSEC0.100.0634.7830.38-0.03-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.100.0645.0049.42-0.01-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0663.6460.930.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.090.0613.6418.14-0.07-0.04
DuquesneA100.100.0663.6456.440.030.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.9171.560.040.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0671.4368.950.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0678.2678.050.030.03
VCUA100.050.0673.9173.910.020.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0671.4369.860.020.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0640.9136.60-0.01-0.02
FloridaSEC0.090.0665.2266.070.030.02
LongwoodBSth0.090.0622.7324.96-0.05-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0345.0046.12-0.01-0.00
LamarSlnd0.050.0330.0029.25-0.02-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.24-0.03-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.050.0345.0046.78-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0345.4538.46-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0334.7837.17-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.980.020.01
OhioMAC0.000.0361.9059.450.000.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.030.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.51-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.74-0.02-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.26-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0360.8763.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0381.8280.030.030.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.640.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0320.8324.10-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.050.0331.5831.08-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.510.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.79-0.03-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.73-0.03-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0347.6252.07-0.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0336.3638.93-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0362.5056.200.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.74-0.02-0.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0383.3383.030.030.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.66-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0363.1658.810.010.01
OregonP120.050.0382.6179.220.030.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0359.0960.100.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.230.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0352.3854.010.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.260.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.430.030.01
HartfordAE0.050.0325.0026.76-0.02-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0384.2181.700.030.02
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.45-0.00-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0342.8642.01-0.01-0.00
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0340.0045.50-0.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0350.0051.290.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.630.010.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0382.6178.890.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.36-0.01-0.00
TulaneAmer0.050.0333.3332.31-0.02-0.01
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.490.020.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0333.3335.47-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.360.020.02