St. Peter's

Conference:	MAAC
Expected RPI:	281.1
Current RPI:	278
Expected SOS:	153
Current SOS:	147
Current Record:	5-19
Expected Record:	7-23
Current Conf Record:	4-9
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-5
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	306
Expected OOC SOS:	139

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	223.5	0.02%
10-20	242.2	0.54%
9-21	259.7	6.30%
8-22	273.0	26.65%
7-23	283.3	40.66%
6-24	291.2	22.17%
5-25	298.0	3.65%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Peter's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Buffalo (71.0)	MAC	A	72-65	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	H	52-69	L	0%	0.0
11-18	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	A	73-62	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	66-43	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Seton Hall (54.0)	BE	A	63-54	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Siena (228.1)	MAAC	H	51-44	W	100%	0.0
12-4	Manhattan (115.2)	MAAC	A	68-42	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Minnesota (64.5)	B10	A	69-47	L	0%	0.0
12-17	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	A	82-80	L	0%	0.0
12-20	Kent St. (84.6)	MAC	N	67-58	L	0%	0.0
12-21	Utah St. (132.9)	WAC	A	72-47	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Texas Arlington (100.9)	Slnd	N	68-73	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Lehigh (110.6)	Pat	H	67-76	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Marist (274.9)	MAAC	A	71-67	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Canisius (323.0)	MAAC	H	65-61	W	100%	0.0
1-8	Rider (208.7)	MAAC	H	58-72	L	0%	0.0
1-13	Niagara (213.6)	MAAC	A	85-73	L	0%	0.0
1-15	Canisius (323.0)	MAAC	A	60-74	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Fairfield (137.0)	MAAC	H	63-75	L	0%	0.0
1-22	Loyola MD (82.3)	MAAC	A	65-54	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Rider (208.7)	MAAC	A	90-55	L	0%	0.0
1-29	Iona (45.3)	MAAC	H	40-64	L	0%	0.0
2-3	Siena (228.1)	MAAC	A	58-63	W	100%	0.0
2-5	Loyola MD (82.3)	MAAC	H	55-66	L	0%	0.0
2-9	Marist (274.9)	MAAC	H	0-0		64%	3.8
2-11	Manhattan (115.2)	MAAC	H	0-0		18%	-9.8
2-15	Fairfield (137.0)	MAAC	A	0-0		9%	-14.5
2-18	Hartford (324.7)	AE	H	0-0		76%	7.6
2-24	Niagara (213.6)	MAAC	H	0-0		43%	-1.9
2-26	Iona (45.3)	MAAC	A	0-0		2%	-22.1

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Peter's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Peter's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Peter's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Peter's	MAAC	26.43	26.35	21.30	22.17	-15.18	-14.66
Niagara	MAAC	2.89	4.29	33.33	37.74	-0.96	-1.05
Canisius	MAAC	4.88	4.29	19.05	21.23	-3.02	-2.47
Manhattan	MAAC	2.87	4.26	66.67	67.58	0.96	1.50
Rider	MAAC	4.87	4.26	34.78	35.54	-1.48	-1.23
Iona	MAAC	2.92	4.26	78.26	78.79	1.65	2.45
Loyola MD	MAAC	4.87	4.23	76.19	72.39	2.55	1.89
Siena	MAAC	4.82	4.23	47.62	48.36	-0.23	-0.14
Marist	MAAC	2.83	4.20	31.82	30.87	-1.03	-1.61
Fairfield	MAAC	2.88	4.20	54.55	51.87	0.26	0.16
Binghamton	AE	2.22	1.84	0.00	4.18	-2.22	-1.68
Buffalo	MAC	2.27	1.84	66.67	65.23	0.76	0.56
Hartford	AE	0.13	1.84	20.83	22.75	-0.08	-1.00
Long Island	NEC	2.21	1.81	69.57	70.06	0.87	0.72
Robert Morris	NEC	2.30	1.81	66.67	69.06	0.77	0.69
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.26	1.80	4.55	9.00	-2.05	-1.48
Kent St.	MAC	2.23	1.78	70.00	67.95	0.89	0.64
Minnesota	B10	2.13	1.72	69.57	61.51	0.83	0.40
Utah St.	WAC	2.18	1.72	47.83	51.33	-0.09	0.05
Texas Arlington	Slnd	2.18	1.72	75.00	75.13	1.09	0.87
Lehigh	Pat	2.13	1.70	72.73	74.05	0.97	0.82
Seton Hall	BE	2.08	1.67	63.64	62.40	0.57	0.41
Vermont	AE	0.31	0.40	61.54	63.84	0.07	0.11
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.26	0.34	13.04	14.47	-0.19	-0.24
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.40	0.31	26.09	28.61	-0.19	-0.13
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.26	0.31	56.52	57.14	0.03	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.23	0.29	33.33	37.75	-0.08	-0.07
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.37	0.26	60.00	59.09	0.07	0.05
Albany	AE	0.18	0.25	57.69	58.54	0.03	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.27	0.23	73.91	75.03	0.13	0.11
Hofstra	CAA	0.17	0.22	32.00	35.39	-0.06	-0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.22	0.22	21.74	22.75	-0.12	-0.12
Monmouth	NEC	0.21	0.22	28.00	28.87	-0.09	-0.09
Stony Brook	AE	0.22	0.20	68.18	68.98	0.08	0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.22	0.19	79.17	78.05	0.13	0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.17	0.19	45.45	45.69	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.21	0.19	54.55	56.80	0.02	0.03
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.17	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Maine	AE	0.09	0.17	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.22	0.17	40.91	34.45	-0.04	-0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.22	0.17	82.61	84.58	0.14	0.12
Columbia	Ivy	0.18	0.17	55.00	54.81	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.13	0.17	56.52	55.97	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.27	0.17	40.00	40.17	-0.05	-0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.17	44.00	45.88	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.15	0.15	81.82	77.18	0.09	0.08
Army	Pat	0.14	0.14	40.91	41.68	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.14	0.14	30.43	29.49	-0.05	-0.06
Holy Cross	Pat	0.14	0.14	40.91	42.03	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.19	0.14	60.87	60.96	0.04	0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.23	0.14	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.18	0.14	8.33	10.84	-0.15	-0.11
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.18	0.14	33.33	38.39	-0.06	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.12	68.18	67.98	0.04	0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.12	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.12	30.00	34.18	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.12	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.11	96.00	93.53	0.12	0.10
Navy	Pat	0.14	0.11	9.52	13.17	-0.11	-0.08
South Dakota	Sum	0.18	0.11	26.32	28.82	-0.09	-0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.11	43.48	42.98	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	ind	0.18	0.11	28.57	25.79	-0.08	-0.06
Providence	BE	0.14	0.11	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.11	8.70	13.12	-0.07	-0.08
Connecticut	BE	0.14	0.11	65.22	62.35	0.04	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.11	73.91	75.47	0.04	0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.11	26.32	29.85	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.09	0.11	80.95	76.42	0.05	0.06
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.11	70.83	68.83	0.05	0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.11	39.13	44.46	-0.03	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.11	62.50	59.52	0.03	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.15	0.09	36.84	41.47	-0.04	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	28.57	34.11	-0.04	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	58.30	0.02	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.09	54.55	48.54	0.01	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	17.39	20.75	-0.06	-0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	22.22	27.56	-0.05	-0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.14	0.09	47.83	43.63	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.08	56.52	54.28	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.08	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.08	12.50	13.42	-0.07	-0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.08	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.02
Denver	SB	0.09	0.08	70.83	72.24	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.08	62.50	62.42	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.04	0.08	27.27	23.78	-0.02	-0.04
Michigan St.	B10	0.09	0.08	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.09	0.08	91.67	87.92	0.07	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.08	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.08	62.50	60.78	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.09	0.08	72.00	72.22	0.04	0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.08	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.08	95.83	92.00	0.08	0.07
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.06	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.06	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.06	5.26	7.29	-0.09	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.10	0.06	38.10	40.84	-0.02	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.10	0.06	75.00	76.02	0.05	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
American	Pat	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.01	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.06	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.06	36.36	39.73	-0.02	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.06	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.06	34.78	32.05	-0.03	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.02	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.06	18.18	19.91	-0.06	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.06	73.91	68.65	0.04	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.09	0.06	34.78	35.19	-0.03	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.06	45.45	47.09	-0.01	-0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.09	0.06	82.61	81.43	0.06	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.06	44.44	48.16	-0.01	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.10	0.06	19.05	24.60	-0.06	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.00	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.00	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.05	0.06	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.06	79.17	74.20	0.05	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.06	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.04	0.06	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.09	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.03	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.06	72.22	63.23	0.02	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.06	82.61	81.41	0.06	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.04	0.06	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.04	0.06	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.04	0.06	59.09	59.78	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.04	0.06	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.04	0.06	69.57	69.00	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.04	0.06	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.00	0.06	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.04	0.06	27.27	26.96	-0.02	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.06	22.22	32.99	-0.05	-0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.04	0.05	66.67	60.84	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.05	79.17	76.62	0.05	0.03
George Mason	CAA	0.04	0.05	76.00	72.48	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.05	21.74	25.63	-0.05	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.05	69.57	61.84	0.03	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.04	0.05	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.05	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.05	39.13	36.12	-0.00	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.05	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.04	0.05	4.00	5.27	-0.04	-0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.00	0.05	75.00	74.01	0.00	0.03
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.03	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.77	-0.02	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.00	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.00	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.00	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.00	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.03	25.00	28.48	-0.02	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.03	61.90	67.29	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.03	19.05	19.39	-0.03	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	25.00	23.73	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.03	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.03	34.78	37.27	-0.02	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.03	54.17	47.95	0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.00	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.45	0.00	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.04	0.03	31.82	32.98	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.03	80.00	76.67	0.03	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.04	0.03	78.26	72.28	0.02	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.67	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.04	0.03	35.00	37.55	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.04	0.03	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.00	0.03	55.56	58.02	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.04	0.03	54.55	57.71	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.08	0.03	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.04	0.03	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.04	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.03	59.09	56.38	0.01	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.04	0.03	34.78	37.18	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.03	69.57	71.58	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.04	0.03	69.57	66.33	0.02	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.00	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.00	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.04	0.03	25.00	25.08	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.00