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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


St. Peter's

Conference:MAAC
Expected RPI:281.1
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:153
Current SOS:147
Current Record:5-19
Expected Record:7-23
Current Conf Record:4-9
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.08%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-5
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:139



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19223.50.02%
10-20242.20.54%
9-21259.76.30%
8-22273.026.65%
7-23283.340.66%
6-24291.222.17%
5-25298.03.65%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Peter's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Buffalo (71.0)MACA72-65L0%0.0
11-15Robert Morris (110.5)NECH52-69L0%0.0
11-18Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)NECA73-62L0%0.0
11-20Binghamton (343.4)AEH66-43W100%0.0
11-26Seton Hall (54.0)BEA63-54L0%0.0
12-1Siena (228.1)MAACH51-44W100%0.0
12-4Manhattan (115.2)MAACA68-42L0%0.0
12-10Minnesota (64.5)B10A69-47L0%0.0
12-17Long Island (106.7)NECA82-80L0%0.0
12-20Kent St. (84.6)MACN67-58L0%0.0
12-21Utah St. (132.9)WACA72-47L0%0.0
12-22Texas Arlington (100.9)SlndN68-73L0%0.0
12-28Lehigh (110.6)PatH67-76L0%0.0
1-2Marist (274.9)MAACA71-67L0%0.0
1-5Canisius (323.0)MAACH65-61W100%0.0
1-8Rider (208.7)MAACH58-72L0%0.0
1-13Niagara (213.6)MAACA85-73L0%0.0
1-15Canisius (323.0)MAACA60-74W100%0.0
1-19Fairfield (137.0)MAACH63-75L0%0.0
1-22Loyola MD (82.3)MAACA65-54L0%0.0
1-26Rider (208.7)MAACA90-55L0%0.0
1-29Iona (45.3)MAACH40-64L0%0.0
2-3Siena (228.1)MAACA58-63W100%0.0
2-5Loyola MD (82.3)MAACH55-66L0%0.0
2-9Marist (274.9)MAACH0-064%3.8
2-11Manhattan (115.2)MAACH0-018%-9.8
2-15Fairfield (137.0)MAACA0-09%-14.5
2-18Hartford (324.7)AEH0-076%7.6
2-24Niagara (213.6)MAACH0-043%-1.9
2-26Iona (45.3)MAACA0-02%-22.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Peter's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Peter's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Peter's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Peter'sMAAC26.4326.3521.3022.17-15.18-14.66
NiagaraMAAC2.894.2933.3337.74-0.96-1.05
CanisiusMAAC4.884.2919.0521.23-3.02-2.47
ManhattanMAAC2.874.2666.6767.580.961.50
RiderMAAC4.874.2634.7835.54-1.48-1.23
IonaMAAC2.924.2678.2678.791.652.45
Loyola MDMAAC4.874.2376.1972.392.551.89
SienaMAAC4.824.2347.6248.36-0.23-0.14
MaristMAAC2.834.2031.8230.87-1.03-1.61
FairfieldMAAC2.884.2054.5551.870.260.16
BinghamtonAE2.221.840.004.18-2.22-1.68
BuffaloMAC2.271.8466.6765.230.760.56
HartfordAE0.131.8420.8322.75-0.08-1.00
Long IslandNEC2.211.8169.5770.060.870.72
Robert MorrisNEC2.301.8166.6769.060.770.69
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.261.804.559.00-2.05-1.48
Kent St.MAC2.231.7870.0067.950.890.64
MinnesotaB102.131.7269.5761.510.830.40
Utah St.WAC2.181.7247.8351.33-0.090.05
Texas ArlingtonSlnd2.181.7275.0075.131.090.87
LehighPat2.131.7072.7374.050.970.82
Seton HallBE2.081.6763.6462.400.570.41
VermontAE0.310.4061.5463.840.070.11
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.260.3413.0414.47-0.19-0.24
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.400.3126.0928.61-0.19-0.13
QuinnipiacNEC0.260.3156.5257.140.030.04
New HampshireAE0.230.2933.3337.75-0.08-0.07
St. BonaventureA100.370.2660.0059.090.070.05
AlbanyAE0.180.2557.6958.540.030.04
BucknellPat0.270.2373.9175.030.130.11
HofstraCAA0.170.2232.0035.39-0.06-0.07
St. Francis PANEC0.220.2221.7422.75-0.12-0.12
MonmouthNEC0.210.2228.0028.87-0.09-0.09
Stony BrookAE0.220.2068.1868.980.080.07
DrexelCAA0.220.1979.1778.050.130.11
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1945.4545.69-0.02-0.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.210.1954.5556.800.020.03
Boston UniversityAE0.090.1750.0053.830.000.01
MaineAE0.090.1747.6248.01-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.220.1740.9134.45-0.04-0.05
WagnerNEC0.220.1782.6184.580.140.12
ColumbiaIvy0.180.1755.0054.810.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1756.5255.970.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.270.1740.0040.17-0.05-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.130.1744.0045.88-0.02-0.01
OhioMAC0.150.1581.8277.180.090.08
ArmyPat0.140.1440.9141.68-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.140.1430.4329.49-0.05-0.06
Holy CrossPat0.140.1440.9142.03-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.190.1460.8760.960.040.03
PrincetonIvy0.230.1447.3752.90-0.010.01
BryantNEC0.180.148.3310.84-0.15-0.11
NJ Inst of TechnologyGWC0.180.1433.3338.39-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.100.1268.1867.980.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.100.1247.6248.81-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1230.0034.18-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1240.9142.97-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.140.1196.0093.530.120.10
NavyPat0.140.119.5213.17-0.11-0.08
South DakotaSum0.180.1126.3228.82-0.09-0.05
LafayettePat0.130.1143.4842.98-0.02-0.02
Longwoodind0.180.1128.5725.79-0.08-0.06
ProvidenceBE0.140.1152.0048.780.01-0.00
RadfordBSth0.090.118.7013.12-0.07-0.08
ConnecticutBE0.140.1165.2262.350.040.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.1173.9175.470.040.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.1126.3229.85-0.04-0.04
NevadaWAC0.090.1180.9576.420.050.06
La SalleA100.120.1170.8368.830.050.04
Fresno St.WAC0.130.1139.1344.46-0.03-0.01
PittsburghBE0.120.1162.5059.520.030.02
CornellIvy0.150.0936.8441.47-0.04-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0928.5734.11-0.04-0.03
Old DominionCAA0.090.0960.0058.300.020.01
South FloridaBE0.090.0954.5548.540.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0917.3920.75-0.06-0.05
Texas St.Slnd0.090.0922.2227.56-0.05-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.140.0947.8343.63-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.090.0856.5254.280.010.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.090.0842.8643.52-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.090.0812.5013.42-0.07-0.06
Penn St.B100.090.0841.6738.63-0.01-0.02
DenverSB0.090.0870.8372.240.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0862.5062.420.020.02
BrownIvy0.040.0827.2723.78-0.02-0.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0877.2773.500.050.04
MissouriB120.090.0891.6787.920.070.06
DePaulBE0.090.0847.8342.19-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.090.0862.5060.780.020.02
MercerASun0.090.0872.0072.220.040.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0863.6457.790.020.01
SyracuseBE0.090.0895.8392.000.080.07
Ball St.MAC0.050.0655.0057.420.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0640.9138.38-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.065.267.29-0.09-0.05
ToledoMAC0.100.0638.1040.84-0.02-0.01
Brigham YoungWCC0.100.0675.0076.020.050.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.0652.3853.290.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0665.2263.790.010.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0630.4331.40-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0642.1149.86-0.01-0.00
Florida AtlanticSB0.090.0636.3639.73-0.02-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0647.8347.36-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.090.0634.7832.05-0.03-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0639.1342.16-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.090.0618.1819.91-0.06-0.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0673.9168.650.040.02
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.090.0634.7835.19-0.03-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0645.4547.09-0.01-0.00
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.090.0682.6181.430.060.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0644.4448.16-0.01-0.00
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.100.0619.0524.60-0.06-0.03
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0656.5257.810.000.01
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.050.0657.1460.720.010.01
LouisvilleBE0.090.0679.1774.200.050.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0643.4840.24-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.040.0680.0076.710.030.03
West VirginiaBE0.090.0666.6765.980.030.02
YaleIvy0.050.0672.2263.230.020.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0682.6181.410.060.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.090.0654.1754.760.010.01
HawaiiWAC0.040.0657.1453.020.010.00
IdahoWAC0.040.0650.0051.460.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.040.0659.0959.780.010.01
MarylandACC0.040.0660.8753.440.010.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.040.0669.5769.000.020.02
RichmondA100.040.0650.0048.480.00-0.00
RutgersBE0.000.0650.0046.870.00-0.00
San Jose St.WAC0.040.0627.2726.96-0.02-0.03
Seattleind0.090.0622.2232.99-0.05-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.040.0566.6760.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.080.0579.1776.620.050.03
George MasonCAA0.040.0576.0072.480.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0521.7425.63-0.05-0.03
IllinoisB100.090.0569.5761.840.030.01
IndianaB100.040.0575.0075.730.020.03
IowaB100.090.0554.1749.410.01-0.00
NC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0539.1336.12-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0550.0044.980.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.040.054.005.27-0.04-0.05
WisconsinB100.000.0575.0074.010.000.03
TempleA100.050.0377.2775.070.030.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0321.0524.33-0.03-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0337.5038.36-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0390.9183.900.040.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0327.7829.77-0.02-0.01
Central FloridaCUSA0.000.0371.4366.550.000.01
College of CharlestonSC0.000.0358.3359.920.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0051.750.000.00
Houston BaptistGWC0.050.0325.0028.48-0.02-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8366.500.020.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0361.9067.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0327.2727.33-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0319.0519.39-0.03-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0344.4445.20-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0325.0023.73-0.02-0.02
North TexasSB0.050.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0355.0054.450.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0333.3335.20-0.02-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0327.7829.51-0.02-0.01
TexasB120.050.0362.5062.200.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0340.9139.81-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0334.7837.27-0.02-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0354.1747.950.00-0.00
CincinnatiBE0.000.0369.5765.370.000.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0380.9577.450.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0331.8232.98-0.02-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0380.0076.670.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0378.2672.280.020.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.040.0369.5770.420.020.01
Notre DameBE0.050.0365.2262.670.010.01
PacificBW0.040.0335.0037.55-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahSum0.040.0345.4544.27-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0355.5658.020.000.00
Utah ValleyGWC0.040.0354.5557.710.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0345.8345.52-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.050.0380.0078.080.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0382.6180.500.030.02
Appalachian St.SC0.040.0333.3337.16-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.040.0359.0956.380.010.00
HamptonMEAC0.040.0334.7837.18-0.01-0.01
MemphisCUSA0.040.0369.5771.580.020.01
MichiganB100.040.0369.5766.330.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.040.0361.9063.520.010.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5085.410.000.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.040.0325.0025.08-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0356.5255.220.010.00