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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:266.0
Current RPI:266
Expected SOS:303
Current SOS:303
Current Record:12-17
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-11
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:232
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-17266.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA87-56L0%0.0
11-21American (231.0)PatH68-48W100%0.0
11-24Kent St. (124.0)MACA79-60L0%0.0
11-27Maryland Eastern Shore (307.0)MEACA70-57L0%0.0
12-2Lehigh (168.0)PatH84-73W100%0.0
12-4Maryland (14.0)B10A96-55L0%0.0
12-12Duquesne (162.0)A10H65-67L0%0.0
12-15Binghamton (299.0)AEA61-67W100%0.0
12-19Albany (107.0)AEA65-58L0%0.0
12-30NJIT (207.0)ASunH65-77L0%0.0
1-2Wagner (185.0)NECH73-65W100%0.0
1-4Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH84-80W100%0.0
1-7St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA73-56L0%0.0
1-9LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA65-72W100%0.0
1-14Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH59-71L0%0.0
1-16Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECH72-82L0%0.0
1-21Bryant (320.0)NECA65-71W100%0.0
1-23Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA64-79W100%0.0
1-28Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA86-82L0%0.0
1-30Robert Morris (291.0)NECH90-78W100%0.0
2-4Bryant (320.0)NECH63-57W100%0.0
2-6Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH91-82W100%0.0
2-11Robert Morris (291.0)NECA57-68W100%0.0
2-13Mount St. Mary's (245.0)NECA66-61L0%0.0
2-18St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH58-70L0%0.0
2-20LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH89-94L0%0.0
2-25Wagner (185.0)NECA69-54L0%0.0
2-27Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA88-78L0%0.0
3-2Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA74-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC26.4226.4242.7542.75-3.83-3.83
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC6.186.1850.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.664.6638.7138.71-1.05-1.05
WagnerNEC4.624.6268.9768.971.751.75
Robert MorrisNEC4.514.5133.3333.33-1.50-1.50
LIU BrooklynNEC4.514.5151.7251.720.160.16
St. Francis NYNEC4.514.5141.3841.38-0.78-0.78
Sacred HeartNEC4.454.4539.2939.29-0.95-0.95
Central ConnecticutNEC4.424.4214.8114.81-3.11-3.11
BryantNEC4.394.3925.0025.00-2.20-2.20
AmericanPat1.941.9440.0040.00-0.39-0.39
LehighPat1.911.9153.3353.330.130.13
BinghamtonAE1.891.8927.5927.59-0.85-0.85
AlbanyAE1.871.8773.3373.330.870.87
NJITASun1.841.8451.7251.720.060.06
MarylandB101.801.8074.1974.190.870.87
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.781.7826.6726.67-0.83-0.83
DuquesneA101.781.7846.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Kent St.MAC1.751.7556.6756.670.230.23
Notre DameACC1.721.7264.5264.520.500.50
UMass LowellAE0.400.4035.7135.71-0.11-0.11
LafayettePat0.340.3420.0020.00-0.20-0.20
HartfordAE0.310.3128.1228.12-0.14-0.14
MaineAE0.280.2826.6726.67-0.13-0.13
ArmyPat0.280.2858.0658.060.050.05
YaleIvy0.260.2677.7877.780.140.14
UMBCAE0.250.2521.8821.88-0.14-0.14
New HampshireAE0.230.2358.6258.620.040.04
FordhamA100.230.2355.1755.170.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.220.2280.0080.000.130.13
Boston UniversityPat0.220.2254.8454.840.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.220.2242.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
BucknellPat0.220.2255.1755.170.020.02
RutgersB100.170.1719.3519.35-0.10-0.10
Boston CollegeACC0.170.1721.8821.88-0.10-0.10
ColgatePat0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
PennIvy0.140.1437.0437.04-0.04-0.04
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
TowsonCAA0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
St. John'sBE0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.140.1465.5265.520.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1430.0030.00-0.05-0.05
BrownIvy0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
VermontAE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
MichiganB100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
NorthwesternB100.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Michigan St.B100.110.1185.2985.290.080.08
PittsburghACC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
Ohio St.B100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
StetsonASun0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
TempleAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
OaklandHorz0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0822.8622.86-0.04-0.04
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
La SalleA100.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MaristMAAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0679.4179.410.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
VCUA100.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
ToledoMAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00