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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:298.0
Current RPI:298
Expected SOS:298
Current SOS:298
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-14
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:341
Expected OOC SOS:317



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21298.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Fordham (226.0)A10A87-67L0%0.0
11-11Navy (321.0)PatH60-57W100%0.0
11-13Dayton (43.0)A10A70-56L0%0.0
11-16Bucknell (167.0)PatA72-50L0%0.0
11-19George Mason (164.0)A10A58-46L0%0.0
11-23Colgate (256.0)PatA81-64L0%0.0
11-30American (118.0)PatH43-75L0%0.0
12-4Lehigh (236.0)PatH50-57L0%0.0
12-7Cornell (334.0)IvyA62-72W100%0.0
12-17Duquesne (187.0)A10H71-78L0%0.0
12-22Drexel (132.0)CAAA59-49L0%0.0
12-31Denver (139.0)SumA83-61L0%0.0
1-4NJIT (308.0)indH56-64L0%0.0
1-9Bryant (177.0)NECA77-67L0%0.0
1-11Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA67-75W100%0.0
1-16Robert Morris (129.0)NECA73-68L0%0.0
1-18Wagner (218.0)NECH50-56L0%0.0
1-23Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH77-83L0%0.0
1-25Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH68-66W100%0.0
1-30Central Connecticut (293.0)NECH69-63W100%0.0
2-1Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH83-75W100%0.0
2-6St. Francis NY (190.0)NECA78-52L0%0.0
2-8LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA58-74W100%0.0
2-13Robert Morris (129.0)NECH60-66L0%0.0
2-15Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA82-89W100%0.0
2-20St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH44-73L0%0.0
2-22LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH83-64W100%0.0
2-27Wagner (218.0)NECA74-45L0%0.0
3-1Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA78-55L0%0.0
3-5Bryant (177.0)NECA54-55W100%0.0
3-8Robert Morris (129.0)NECA60-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC26.3426.3434.4834.48-8.18-8.18
Robert MorrisNEC5.665.6658.0658.060.910.91
Mount St. Mary'sNEC4.194.1946.6746.67-0.28-0.28
St. Francis NYNEC4.074.0751.7251.720.140.14
BryantNEC4.074.0755.1755.170.420.42
WagnerNEC4.064.0657.1457.140.580.58
LIU BrooklynNEC4.034.0333.3333.33-1.34-1.34
Central ConnecticutNEC4.024.0237.0437.04-1.04-1.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.004.0033.3333.33-1.33-1.33
Sacred HeartNEC2.502.5016.6716.67-1.67-1.67
LehighPat1.991.9941.9441.94-0.32-0.32
ColgatePat1.931.9337.9337.93-0.47-0.47
AmericanPat1.931.9361.2961.290.440.44
NavyPat1.901.9028.5728.57-0.81-0.81
BucknellPat1.871.8751.7251.720.060.06
FordhamA101.821.8230.0030.00-0.73-0.73
DuquesneA101.821.8239.2939.29-0.39-0.39
NJITind1.801.8033.3333.33-0.60-0.60
DaytonA101.771.7768.7568.750.660.66
George MasonA101.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
CornellIvy1.641.643.853.85-1.51-1.51
DenverSum1.611.6148.2848.28-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
LafayettePat0.500.5033.3333.33-0.17-0.17
ArmyPat0.380.3846.6746.67-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.370.3759.3859.380.070.07
Boston UniversityPat0.340.3470.5970.590.140.14
Loyola MDPat0.340.3434.4834.48-0.11-0.11
HofstraCAA0.280.2830.3030.30-0.11-0.11
ColumbiaIvy0.250.2560.0060.000.050.05
BrownIvy0.220.2251.8551.850.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.220.2253.1253.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.210.2172.7372.730.090.09
New HampshireAE0.190.1917.2417.24-0.13-0.13
YaleIvy0.190.1951.8551.850.010.01
BinghamtonAE0.190.1923.3323.33-0.10-0.10
La SalleA100.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Saint LouisA100.180.1880.6580.650.110.11
RichmondA100.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.180.1873.5373.530.080.08
PennIvy0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
PrincetonIvy0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
HarvardIvy0.160.1686.2186.210.120.12
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
AlbanyAE0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Seton HallBE0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
HartfordAE0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
SyracuseACC0.130.1384.3884.380.090.09
RiderMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
MonmouthMAAC0.130.1334.3834.38-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
MassachusettsA100.130.1375.0075.000.070.07
OaklandHorz0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
VermontAE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.100.1064.2964.290.030.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
RutgersAmer0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
IPFWSum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
SienaMAAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UICHorz0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
IUPUISum0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0259.2659.260.000.00
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00