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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:124.8
Current RPI:82
Expected SOS:281
Current SOS:133
Current Record:5-4
Expected Record:18-10
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-4
Current OOC Record:5-4
Expected OOC Record:6-4
Expected OOC RPI:82
Expected OOC SOS:169



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-451.00.05%
23-557.40.53%
22-668.42.84%
21-781.28.28%
20-895.714.59%
19-9110.820.01%
18-10127.120.22%
17-11144.615.78%
16-12163.210.00%
15-13182.94.92%
14-14203.01.89%
13-15222.20.70%
12-16249.40.18%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cincinnati (67.8)AmerA52-37L0%0.0
11-17American (103.1)PatA49-46L0%0.0
11-22Maryland Eastern Shore (247.5)MEACH57-53W100%0.0
11-25Texas (6.2)B12A78-46L0%0.0
11-29Navy (317.2)PatA68-85W100%0.0
12-3Lehigh (147.2)PatA61-59L0%0.0
12-6Albany (191.5)AEH69-59W100%0.0
12-17Duquesne (236.3)A10A52-67W100%0.0
12-20Rutgers (172.3)B10A68-73W100%0.0
12-30NJIT (216.8)indA0-056%1.7
1-3Wagner (285.5)NECH0-088%13.6
1-5Robert Morris (266.7)NECH0-085%12.2
1-8Bryant (208.3)NECA0-051%0.4
1-10Sacred Heart (147.7)NECA0-041%-2.6
1-16Sacred Heart (147.7)NECH0-069%5.8
1-18St. Francis NY (253.2)NECH0-080%9.7
1-22Wagner (285.5)NECA0-067%5.2
1-24Mount St. Mary's (235.7)NECA0-062%3.6
1-29Bryant (208.3)NECH0-077%8.8
1-31Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECH0-086%12.6
2-5Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECA0-064%4.3
2-7LIU Brooklyn (230.2)NECA0-053%1.0
2-12Central Connecticut (318.3)NECH0-091%15.7
2-14LIU Brooklyn (230.2)NECH0-079%9.3
2-19Central Connecticut (318.3)NECA0-073%7.3
2-21St. Francis NY (253.2)NECA0-055%1.4
2-26Mount St. Mary's (235.7)NECH0-085%12.0
2-28Robert Morris (266.7)NECA0-063%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC27.4626.4069.2371.6810.5611.45
St. Francis NYNEC0.254.6130.0043.89-0.10-0.56
LIU BrooklynNEC0.314.6133.3345.85-0.10-0.38
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.474.6033.3342.28-0.16-0.71
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.5920.0027.94-0.00-2.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.354.5830.0040.56-0.14-0.86
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.5855.5662.140.001.11
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.254.5737.5040.78-0.06-0.84
WagnerNEC0.004.5712.5031.18-0.00-1.72
BryantNEC0.004.5528.5746.65-0.00-0.30
NJITind0.622.0941.6743.66-0.10-0.26
AmericanPat5.561.9760.0061.971.110.47
RutgersB105.561.9760.0033.671.11-0.64
LehighPat5.561.9737.5052.35-1.390.09
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.831.9541.6746.10-0.97-0.15
NavyPat5.771.9422.2222.95-3.21-1.05
DuquesneA105.561.9142.8635.32-0.79-0.56
AlbanyAE5.561.8644.4456.97-0.620.26
CincinnatiAmer5.561.8566.6763.501.850.50
TexasB125.561.7990.0079.314.441.05
LafayettePat0.000.4766.6767.650.000.16
New HampshireAE0.250.3350.0060.410.000.07
Holy CrossPat0.280.3157.1453.770.040.02
BucknellPat0.490.3140.0036.66-0.10-0.08
ArmyPat0.000.3177.7868.780.000.11
ColgatePat0.280.2820.0042.59-0.17-0.04
MaineAE0.000.2611.1120.80-0.00-0.15
ColumbiaIvy0.560.2566.6767.930.190.09
Loyola MDPat0.000.2533.3328.13-0.00-0.11
UMass LowellAE0.350.2250.0050.490.000.00
UMBCAE0.210.2218.1825.30-0.14-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2150.0058.370.000.04
BrownIvy0.250.2140.0033.80-0.05-0.07
ConnecticutAmer0.250.2150.0058.070.000.03
YaleIvy0.280.1966.6761.820.090.04
VermontAE0.000.1944.4457.69-0.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1830.0041.69-0.00-0.03
HofstraCAA0.000.1870.0076.180.000.10
Stony BrookAE0.280.1833.3355.24-0.090.02
MarylandB100.000.1890.9168.230.000.07
HartfordAE0.000.1850.0050.620.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.1688.8965.170.000.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1660.0043.160.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.280.1691.6777.120.230.08
BinghamtonAE0.280.150.0011.24-0.28-0.12
RiderMAAC0.310.1550.0053.250.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1536.3646.72-0.00-0.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1560.0047.170.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.1554.5559.560.000.03
TempleAmer0.250.1563.6456.430.070.02
HowardMEAC0.350.1330.0043.74-0.14-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.120.008.56-0.00-0.10
La SalleA100.250.1254.5552.730.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.1270.0059.220.000.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1233.3337.91-0.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.1050.0046.690.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.520.10100.0082.970.520.06
PennIvy0.280.0937.5032.63-0.07-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.250.0945.4549.62-0.02-0.00
PittsburghACC0.350.0970.0051.780.140.00
MichiganB100.000.0950.0040.450.00-0.02
George WashingtonA100.250.0966.6765.500.080.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.250.0936.3648.18-0.07-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0977.7865.110.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.210.0990.0082.310.170.06
Seton HallBE0.250.0990.0067.380.200.03
Penn St.B100.350.0991.6755.310.290.01
VCUA100.490.0972.7375.740.220.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0940.0037.64-0.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.250.0960.0043.890.05-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0981.8282.250.000.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0918.1830.76-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0688.8977.320.000.03
DaytonA100.000.0680.0069.770.000.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0633.3341.02-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.270.00-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.590.0644.4450.60-0.070.00
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0082.630.000.04
DenverSum0.000.0645.4555.13-0.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0644.4450.41-0.000.00
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
ProvidenceBE0.560.0675.0057.390.280.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0645.4537.60-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.210.0628.5727.11-0.09-0.03
Michigan St.B100.280.0666.6767.300.090.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3334.04-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.890.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0642.8649.02-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0663.6455.660.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.17-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0672.7374.850.000.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.00-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.520.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.250.0675.0065.140.130.02
Morehead St.OVC0.530.0616.6737.21-0.35-0.01
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.240.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0662.5041.790.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0681.8263.330.000.02
IowaB100.250.0666.6759.420.080.01
Iowa St.B120.000.0690.0065.480.000.02
KansasB120.000.0690.0070.680.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0663.6440.190.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0660.0062.070.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6735.27-0.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.280.0666.6744.720.09-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.490.0650.0071.260.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0670.0062.710.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.020.000.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.370.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.710.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.2735.36-0.00-0.02
TCUB120.000.06100.0067.700.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.0690.0055.360.000.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.900.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.9170.080.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0460.0048.980.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.040.0031.89-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.350.0314.2915.15-0.25-0.02
Arizona St.P120.310.0354.5548.490.03-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.310.0355.5662.150.030.01
DePaulBE0.310.0360.0034.160.06-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6773.310.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0360.0057.700.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0333.3340.63-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.51-0.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.280.0370.0060.920.110.01
SienaMAAC0.280.0333.3349.54-0.09-0.00
The CitadelSC0.280.0314.2932.16-0.20-0.01
UNLVMWC0.280.0366.6749.560.09-0.00
VMISC0.280.0333.3338.93-0.09-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.0372.7367.520.110.01
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.008.60-0.25-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.250.030.0027.67-0.25-0.01
CaliforniaP120.250.0390.9169.030.210.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0014.00-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.210.0340.0048.02-0.04-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.0340.0043.04-0.06-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0011.94-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.250.03100.0096.290.250.03
LipscombASun0.250.0322.2238.44-0.14-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.250.0336.3650.71-0.070.00
ManhattanMAAC0.250.0330.0038.01-0.10-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.280.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0067.830.000.01
MississippiSEC0.280.0370.0052.600.110.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.030.0023.69-0.21-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0061.480.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.250.0355.5655.280.030.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0363.6442.810.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.98-0.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.280.0372.7372.580.130.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0318.1827.33-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0340.0041.32-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0366.6758.320.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.770.000.01
Texas St.SB0.250.0350.0050.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.620.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.250.0355.5655.710.030.00
VanderbiltSEC0.250.0366.6758.210.080.00
VirginiaACC0.250.03100.0086.080.250.02
Virginia TechACC0.210.0360.0038.030.04-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.840.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0372.7367.590.000.01