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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:226.5
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:299
Current SOS:311
Current Record:12-11
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:9-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11184.41.79%
16-12200.214.75%
15-13217.334.40%
14-14235.733.17%
13-15253.813.48%
12-16270.32.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Notre Dame (31.3)ACCA87-56L0%0.0
11-21American (264.6)PatH68-48W100%0.0
11-24Kent St. (106.9)MACA79-60L0%0.0
11-27Maryland Eastern Shore (274.8)MEACA70-57L0%0.0
12-2Lehigh (196.2)PatH84-73W100%0.0
12-4Maryland (5.3)B10A96-55L0%0.0
12-12Duquesne (113.8)A10H65-67L0%0.0
12-15Binghamton (298.5)AEA61-67W100%0.0
12-19Albany (96.1)AEA65-58L0%0.0
12-30NJIT (184.9)ASunH65-77L0%0.0
1-2Wagner (201.7)NECH73-65W100%0.0
1-4Sacred Heart (280.4)NECH84-80W100%0.0
1-7St. Francis NY (285.0)NECA73-56L0%0.0
1-9LIU Brooklyn (277.0)NECA65-72W100%0.0
1-14Fairleigh Dickinson (215.2)NECH59-71L0%0.0
1-16Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECH72-82L0%0.0
1-21Bryant (320.9)NECA65-71W100%0.0
1-23Central Connecticut (350.6)NECA64-79W100%0.0
1-28Fairleigh Dickinson (215.2)NECA86-82L0%0.0
1-30Robert Morris (306.3)NECH90-78W100%0.0
2-4Bryant (320.9)NECH63-57W100%0.0
2-6Central Connecticut (350.6)NECH91-82W100%0.0
2-11Robert Morris (306.3)NECA57-68W100%0.0
2-13Mount St. Mary's (229.4)NECA0-031%-5.5
2-18St. Francis NY (285.0)NECH0-063%3.5
2-20LIU Brooklyn (277.0)NECH0-064%3.8
2-25Wagner (201.7)NECA0-024%-7.8
2-27Sacred Heart (280.4)NECH0-071%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC26.3926.4053.3352.031.761.07
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.114.6740.0043.46-0.62-0.61
Robert MorrisNEC5.164.6129.1730.58-2.15-1.79
St. Francis NYNEC3.074.6137.5041.69-0.77-0.77
Central ConnecticutNEC5.094.5713.6414.25-3.70-3.27
WagnerNEC2.934.5763.6464.400.801.32
BryantNEC5.114.5526.0926.70-2.44-2.12
LIU BrooklynNEC2.944.5452.1753.730.130.34
Sacred HeartNEC2.894.5434.7837.92-0.88-1.10
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.014.5447.6250.16-0.240.01
AmericanPat2.402.0030.4332.30-0.94-0.71
BinghamtonAE2.391.9625.0027.38-1.19-0.89
LehighPat2.391.9640.9144.42-0.43-0.22
AlbanyAE2.351.9472.0072.881.030.89
NJITASun2.311.9054.1754.060.190.15
MarylandB102.261.8786.9683.101.671.24
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.261.8526.0931.39-1.08-0.69
DuquesneA102.261.8459.0954.770.410.18
Kent St.MAC2.221.8263.6459.240.600.34
Notre DameACC2.171.7969.5766.820.850.60
UMass LowellAE0.400.4337.5037.69-0.10-0.11
LafayettePat0.320.3420.8321.68-0.19-0.19
MaineAE0.270.3132.0031.16-0.10-0.12
HartfordAE0.310.3024.0024.55-0.16-0.15
ArmyPat0.320.2854.1754.290.030.02
YaleIvy0.360.2873.6874.620.170.14
UMBCAE0.300.2723.0825.87-0.16-0.13
Loyola MDPat0.230.2433.3335.18-0.08-0.07
Stony BrookAE0.310.2482.6183.010.200.16
BucknellPat0.310.2452.1754.940.010.02
Boston UniversityPat0.310.2256.0056.510.040.03
FordhamA100.230.2252.3850.690.010.00
Holy CrossPat0.180.2241.6739.59-0.03-0.05
New HampshireAE0.300.2159.0956.870.060.03
ColgatePat0.220.1943.4844.90-0.03-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.220.1829.1726.69-0.09-0.08
FairfieldMAAC0.140.1654.1754.090.010.01
RutgersB100.230.1621.7420.34-0.13-0.09
St. John'sBE0.130.1525.0023.45-0.07-0.08
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1570.8370.130.080.06
ColumbiaIvy0.220.1566.6765.240.070.05
PennIvy0.220.1538.8937.69-0.05-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.220.1530.4332.26-0.09-0.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.1319.0525.90-0.06-0.06
NavyPat0.090.1364.0064.460.030.04
TowsonCAA0.140.1362.5057.730.030.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1240.9143.32-0.03-0.02
BrownIvy0.180.1231.5831.01-0.07-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.130.1231.5831.68-0.05-0.04
North FloridaASun0.090.1262.5064.120.020.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1264.0062.090.040.03
VermontAE0.130.1252.0054.860.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.180.1256.0052.870.020.01
PittsburghACC0.190.1272.7367.600.080.04
MichiganB100.130.1270.8366.750.060.04
Saint LouisA100.140.1234.7832.39-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.130.1260.0055.560.030.01
George MasonA100.090.0933.3333.63-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0980.0081.160.060.06
PrincetonIvy0.140.0972.2274.700.060.05
RiderMAAC0.090.0940.0042.04-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.090.0939.1342.98-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0925.0033.23-0.05-0.03
PurdueB100.090.0980.0077.910.060.05
MassachusettsA100.050.0943.4842.40-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.130.0980.0081.560.080.06
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0924.0024.61-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0934.7834.97-0.03-0.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0952.1754.130.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.090.0956.5257.060.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.130.0972.0069.130.060.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0958.3357.250.020.01
St. BonaventureA100.090.0972.7370.410.040.04
DukeACC0.130.0975.0071.840.070.04
Georgia TechACC0.090.0954.1752.000.010.00
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.7836.53-0.03-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.040.0979.1775.990.030.05
Penn St.B100.140.0950.0046.770.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.130.0965.3864.970.040.03
OaklandHorz0.130.0965.3865.510.040.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.0920.0022.25-0.08-0.05
DelawareCAA0.090.0625.0024.93-0.05-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0670.8368.080.020.02
TempleAmer0.090.0665.2262.370.030.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0687.5086.850.070.05
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0642.3144.53-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.090.0668.0064.090.030.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0683.3378.460.060.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.069.0912.26-0.00-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0650.0052.870.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.090.0659.0961.280.020.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0666.6766.770.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0636.3638.97-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0652.9452.100.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
LipscombASun0.090.0628.0030.49-0.04-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.27-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.090.0622.7327.39-0.05-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.040.0621.7422.42-0.02-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.090.0642.1140.24-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0675.0072.610.040.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0629.1733.11-0.04-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0683.3381.280.030.04
South FloridaAmer0.090.0620.0019.73-0.05-0.04
VCUA100.090.0670.8371.050.040.03
AkronMAC0.000.0682.6181.140.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0650.0045.770.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.090.0621.7422.75-0.05-0.03
DavidsonA100.090.0661.9058.170.020.01
DaytonA100.090.0686.9682.160.070.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0640.0043.39-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0675.0071.960.020.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0635.0038.57-0.03-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0645.8344.07-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0680.0075.690.030.03
IowaB100.090.0679.1778.880.050.03
ManhattanMAAC0.040.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0621.7424.25-0.05-0.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0682.6177.580.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0634.7833.02-0.01-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0660.8762.470.020.01
North CarolinaACC0.090.0683.3378.380.060.03
OhioMAC0.090.0663.6461.470.030.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.069.0917.14-0.07-0.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0641.6739.90-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0631.8232.68-0.02-0.02
WisconsinB100.050.0662.5057.000.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0643.4837.80-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0672.0071.570.040.02
ElonCAA0.040.0650.0050.070.000.00
FurmanSC0.040.0656.0054.430.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0659.0955.160.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0679.1777.510.020.03
James MadisonCAA0.040.0672.0071.320.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0665.2268.600.030.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0665.2264.340.030.02
WashingtonP120.040.0662.5060.140.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0331.8236.11-0.02-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.03-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
LSUSEC0.050.0362.5059.080.010.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.28-0.02-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0343.4850.64-0.010.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0358.3363.180.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.67-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.130.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.39-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.400.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0366.6763.300.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0356.0054.080.010.00
La SalleA100.050.0319.0520.30-0.03-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0345.4549.05-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.110.000.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0325.0027.26-0.00-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0352.0050.760.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0326.3232.40-0.02-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0048.950.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0360.0057.650.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0358.3360.900.010.01
RichmondA100.000.0356.5255.820.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0386.9682.920.030.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.050.0373.0872.610.020.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0360.8762.080.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.920.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.08-0.00-0.00