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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:179.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:250
Current SOS:250
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:115



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15179.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA52-37L0%0.0
11-17American (135.0)PatA49-46L0%0.0
11-22Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH57-53W100%0.0
11-25Texas (42.0)B12A78-46L0%0.0
11-29Navy (252.0)PatA68-85W100%0.0
12-3Lehigh (175.0)PatA61-59L0%0.0
12-6Albany (99.0)AEH69-59W100%0.0
12-17Duquesne (222.0)A10A52-67W100%0.0
12-20Rutgers (178.0)B10A68-73W100%0.0
12-30NJIT (159.0)indA77-65L0%0.0
1-3Wagner (294.0)NECH85-68W100%0.0
1-5Robert Morris (171.0)NECH66-59W100%0.0
1-8Bryant (189.0)NECA80-54L0%0.0
1-10Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA68-77W100%0.0
1-16Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH79-78W100%0.0
1-18St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH59-60L0%0.0
1-22Wagner (294.0)NECA63-58L0%0.0
1-24Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA52-40L0%0.0
1-29Bryant (189.0)NECH75-68W100%0.0
1-31Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH68-63W100%0.0
2-5Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA60-64W100%0.0
2-7LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECA66-60L0%0.0
2-12Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH74-63W100%0.0
2-14LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH74-79L0%0.0
2-19Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA53-50L0%0.0
2-21St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA66-54L0%0.0
2-26Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECH63-60W100%0.0
2-28Robert Morris (171.0)NECA71-70L0%0.0
3-4Mount St. Mary's (188.0)NECA58-73W100%0.0
3-7St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA62-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC26.5226.5256.5656.563.483.48
St. Francis NYNEC6.106.1063.3363.331.631.63
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.975.9751.8551.850.220.22
Robert MorrisNEC4.534.5358.0658.060.730.73
LIU BrooklynNEC4.454.4535.7135.71-1.27-1.27
BryantNEC4.424.4251.7251.720.150.15
Sacred HeartNEC4.394.3948.2848.28-0.15-0.15
WagnerNEC4.384.3829.6329.63-1.79-1.79
Central ConnecticutNEC4.354.3513.7913.79-3.15-3.15
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.334.3326.9226.92-2.00-2.00
NJITind1.961.9654.1754.170.160.16
AmericanPat1.891.8950.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB101.861.8632.2632.26-0.66-0.66
LehighPat1.851.8550.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
NavyPat1.801.8040.0040.00-0.36-0.36
DuquesneA101.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
AlbanyAE1.731.7377.4277.420.950.95
CincinnatiAmer1.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
TexasB121.671.6759.3859.380.310.31
LafayettePat0.440.4461.2961.290.100.10
New HampshireAE0.320.3258.6258.620.060.06
ArmyPat0.320.3248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.300.3056.2556.250.040.04
ColgatePat0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
MaineAE0.260.2610.0010.00-0.21-0.21
ColumbiaIvy0.250.2544.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.250.2536.6736.67-0.07-0.07
MonmouthMAAC0.210.2154.5554.550.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.210.2158.8258.820.040.04
UMass LowellAE0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
UMBCAE0.190.1913.3313.33-0.14-0.14
BrownIvy0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.190.1958.0658.060.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Notre DameACC0.170.1785.2985.290.120.12
YaleIvy0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
HofstraCAA0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
VermontAE0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
MarylandB100.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
BinghamtonAE0.160.1616.6716.67-0.11-0.11
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.160.1644.8344.83-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
RiderMAAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
TempleAmer0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
La SalleA100.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
George WashingtonA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1177.4277.420.060.06
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.090.0994.1294.120.080.08
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0947.0647.06-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0891.1891.180.070.07
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
PittsburghACC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Penn St.B100.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Ohio St.B100.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.080.0814.2914.29-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Texas TechB120.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
DavidsonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00