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Through games of Jan 22, 2018.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:157.7
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:264
Current SOS:229
Current Record:9-8
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:5-3
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC Record:4-5
Expected OOC RPI:117
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-898.62.28%
18-9117.211.78%
17-10137.823.30%
16-11158.027.13%
15-12177.921.04%
14-13196.010.24%
13-14213.73.40%
12-15230.30.70%
11-16246.30.11%
10-17272.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Saint Mary's (34.7)WCCA85-68L0%0.0
11-13San Francisco (171.7)WCCA75-63L0%0.0
11-18Longwood (334.3)BSthA56-83W100%0.0
11-24Louisville (22.8)ACCA84-72L0%0.0
11-29American (314.5)PatH100-89W100%0.0
12-2Stony Brook (197.0)AEA85-83L0%0.0
12-5Duke (3.0)ACCA124-67L0%0.0
12-10Niagara (187.6)MAACA87-93W100%0.0
12-21Lehigh (237.6)PatH84-70W100%0.0
12-29Central Connecticut (253.0)NECA72-68L0%0.0
12-31Bryant (330.9)NECA82-86W100%0.0
1-4LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECH85-68W100%0.0
1-6St. Francis NY (283.4)NECH91-87W100%0.0
1-11Robert Morris (152.6)NECA80-89W100%0.0
1-13Mount St. Mary's (257.7)NECH80-81L0%0.0
1-18Wagner (144.0)NECA73-64L0%0.0
1-20Sacred Heart (315.8)NECA60-73W100%0.0
1-26Wagner (144.0)NECH0-063%3.6
1-28Sacred Heart (315.8)NECH0-082%10.3
2-1Fairleigh Dickinson (280.4)NECH0-079%8.8
2-3Mount St. Mary's (257.7)NECA0-057%1.9
2-8LIU Brooklyn (276.7)NECA0-060%2.9
2-10St. Francis NY (283.4)NECA0-065%4.3
2-15Central Connecticut (253.0)NECH0-082%10.1
2-17Bryant (330.9)NECH0-090%14.0
2-22Fairleigh Dickinson (280.4)NECA0-059%2.4
2-24Robert Morris (152.6)NECH0-064%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC26.2926.4262.6764.556.667.69
Mount St. Mary'sNEC3.554.7838.8943.01-0.79-0.67
BryantNEC3.554.7510.0017.94-2.84-3.05
LIU BrooklynNEC3.394.7542.1144.13-0.54-0.56
WagnerNEC3.464.7462.5064.240.871.35
Central ConnecticutNEC3.314.7250.0047.800.00-0.21
Robert MorrisNEC3.404.7260.0063.330.681.26
Sacred HeartNEC3.414.7231.5835.24-1.26-1.39
St. Francis NYNEC3.464.7135.2936.57-1.02-1.27
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.594.7123.5332.67-0.31-1.63
AmericanPat3.192.0526.3226.96-1.51-0.94
LehighPat3.091.9841.1846.40-0.55-0.14
LouisvilleACC3.011.9477.7868.821.670.73
Saint Mary'sWCC2.941.9190.0088.602.351.48
Stony BrookAE3.011.9133.3343.23-1.00-0.26
San FranciscoWCC2.941.9147.3746.97-0.15-0.12
DukeACC2.941.8888.8984.752.291.31
LongwoodBSth2.941.8517.6516.75-1.90-1.23
NiagaraMAAC2.941.8560.0054.810.590.18
HartfordAE0.520.4450.0045.930.00-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.300.3242.1146.09-0.05-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.300.3233.3333.87-0.10-0.10
BrownIvy0.370.2850.0045.130.00-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.230.2630.0032.58-0.09-0.09
NavyPat0.310.2660.0055.160.060.03
ArmyPat0.310.2361.1160.440.070.05
RutgersB100.220.2255.0046.650.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.390.2240.0030.88-0.08-0.08
SienaMAAC0.370.2128.5729.93-0.16-0.09
NJITASun0.160.2038.8942.58-0.04-0.03
Loyola MDPat0.150.1922.2228.66-0.08-0.08
LafayettePat0.230.1922.2227.46-0.13-0.09
FairfieldMAAC0.230.1938.8944.07-0.05-0.02
Notre DameACC0.240.1963.1661.000.060.04
BinghamtonAE0.220.1942.1139.93-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.290.1933.3340.10-0.10-0.04
MaineAE0.220.1910.5314.83-0.17-0.13
Boston CollegeACC0.300.1865.0054.600.090.02
San DiegoWCC0.210.1863.1657.530.060.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.220.1865.0056.350.070.02
Seton HallBE0.160.1775.0067.910.080.06
BucknellPat0.230.1661.9068.000.060.06
RiderMAAC0.230.1665.0065.330.070.05
DuquesneA100.230.1670.0058.090.090.03
AlbanyAE0.220.1571.4370.250.100.06
BYUWCC0.210.1580.9576.240.130.08
St. John'sBE0.140.1547.3742.16-0.01-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.160.1350.0053.280.000.01
ColgatePat0.160.1350.0051.030.000.00
IonaMAAC0.070.1360.0064.130.010.04
FordhamA100.160.1331.5829.03-0.06-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.080.1350.0050.860.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.129.5217.86-0.12-0.08
Grand CanyonWAC0.230.1270.0071.220.090.05
VirginiaACC0.080.1294.7486.110.070.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.220.1217.6534.76-0.14-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.140.1221.4326.34-0.08-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.140.1280.9583.260.090.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1227.7829.10-0.06-0.05
PacificWCC0.140.1245.0044.49-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.220.1210.5318.34-0.17-0.08
PortlandWCC0.070.1227.7827.26-0.03-0.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1233.3332.96-0.05-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.070.1261.9063.170.020.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.1270.0060.400.030.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.1052.9460.230.000.02
MarylandB100.080.1066.6763.130.030.03
DaytonA100.160.1047.3750.94-0.010.00
RadfordBSth0.160.1057.8958.880.020.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.150.1052.6358.610.010.02
MarquetteBE0.150.1068.4260.530.060.02
ProvidenceBE0.150.0970.0060.470.060.02
MaristMAAC0.150.0921.0521.99-0.09-0.05
MonmouthMAAC0.150.0927.7841.03-0.07-0.02
YaleIvy0.150.0941.1847.61-0.03-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.140.0972.2274.940.060.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.0920.0023.33-0.08-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.150.0973.6869.660.070.04
GeorgiaSEC0.140.0966.6755.900.050.01
MemphisAmer0.150.0965.0058.540.040.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0976.1972.570.000.04
Wake ForestACC0.080.0942.1140.46-0.01-0.02
MissouriSEC0.090.0766.6763.150.030.02
Penn St.B100.000.0761.9055.820.000.01
CampbellBSth0.080.0747.0647.41-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0725.0031.44-0.04-0.02
DenverSum0.080.0733.3336.47-0.03-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0757.8966.270.010.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0738.8940.78-0.02-0.01
High PointBSth0.080.0743.7549.22-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0750.0054.180.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0727.7827.11-0.04-0.03
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0059.430.000.01
ColumbiaIvy0.160.0620.0032.24-0.10-0.02
VMISC0.160.0625.0024.14-0.08-0.03
Arizona St.P120.160.0678.9576.160.090.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0668.4254.080.030.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0633.3340.35-0.03-0.01
North FloridaASun0.080.0631.5835.15-0.03-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0647.0648.43-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.000.0655.5655.550.000.01
VermontAE0.080.0675.0077.870.040.04
CornellIvy0.150.0633.3333.23-0.05-0.02
Michigan St.B100.150.0685.7183.760.110.04
Miami OHMAC0.070.0647.0641.38-0.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0655.0050.370.010.00
TulaneAmer0.070.0663.1657.870.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.0616.6724.44-0.10-0.03
ClemsonACC0.080.0684.2173.180.050.03
DePaulBE0.070.0642.1134.30-0.01-0.02
DrexelCAA0.070.0630.0030.97-0.03-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0642.1132.46-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0652.6343.040.00-0.01
IndianaB100.150.0660.0052.880.030.00
Little RockSB0.070.0622.2225.19-0.04-0.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0677.7870.410.040.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0655.5657.250.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0641.1839.14-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0681.8276.870.040.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0635.0031.82-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.000.0668.4261.280.000.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0621.0523.52-0.04-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0347.3743.00-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.080.0345.0043.62-0.01-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0380.0078.870.050.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0368.7567.610.030.01
USCP120.080.0371.4368.300.040.01
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.710.020.01
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0352.6347.380.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.080.0357.8959.500.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5326.29-0.06-0.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0375.0065.320.040.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0315.0020.28-0.05-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0380.0076.040.040.02
Western IllinoisSum0.070.0342.8635.22-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.0345.0049.28-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.070.0338.8946.05-0.02-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
NevadaMWC0.070.0385.7182.120.050.02
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.330.010.00
UC DavisBW0.070.0358.8262.450.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.070.0370.5969.630.030.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0310.0016.77-0.06-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0356.2556.820.010.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0336.8431.11-0.02-0.01
ElonCAA0.080.0352.6351.090.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0352.6347.500.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0373.6871.600.040.01
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.540.030.01
George MasonA100.080.0345.0041.29-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.070.0337.5046.70-0.02-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6868.040.040.01
MassachusettsA100.070.0350.0046.810.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.070.0363.6457.610.020.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0383.3384.250.050.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0358.8263.210.010.01
PurdueB100.080.0390.4888.390.060.02
San Jose St.MWC0.070.0311.7612.80-0.05-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0357.8954.500.010.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.400.040.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0331.5840.82-0.03-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0355.0052.480.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.750.020.01
TexasB120.080.0365.0058.600.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.95-0.03-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0360.0062.010.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0366.6766.030.030.01
Washington St.P120.070.0347.3741.43-0.00-0.01