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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:258.0
Current RPI:258
Expected SOS:335
Current SOS:335
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-8
Current OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:330
Expected OOC SOS:313



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16258.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10A92-82L0%0.0
11-16Duquesne (267.0)A10A89-75L0%0.0
11-23Longwood (343.0)BSthH87-72W100%0.0
11-26American (310.0)PatA62-69W100%0.0
11-30NJIT (290.0)ASunA83-70L0%0.0
12-3Binghamton (311.0)AEH70-73L0%0.0
12-12Lehigh (97.0)PatA100-67L0%0.0
12-17Stony Brook (176.0)AEH63-75L0%0.0
12-19Marquette (60.0)BEA78-65L0%0.0
12-21Texas A&M (92.0)SECA81-58L0%0.0
12-29Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECA77-65L0%0.0
12-31Sacred Heart (304.0)NECA67-87W100%0.0
1-5St. Francis NY (348.0)NECH81-56W100%0.0
1-7LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH70-83L0%0.0
1-12Robert Morris (237.0)NECA57-77W100%0.0
1-14Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA78-72L0%0.0
1-19Bryant (285.0)NECH75-61W100%0.0
1-21Central Connecticut (344.0)NECH83-84L0%0.0
1-26Wagner (244.0)NECA67-72W100%0.0
1-28Robert Morris (237.0)NECH89-83W100%0.0
2-2St. Francis NY (348.0)NECA61-78W100%0.0
2-4LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECA78-80W100%0.0
2-9Wagner (244.0)NECH74-76L0%0.0
2-11Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH62-81L0%0.0
2-16Central Connecticut (344.0)NECA71-80W100%0.0
2-18Bryant (285.0)NECA79-75L0%0.0
2-23Sacred Heart (304.0)NECH73-64W100%0.0
2-25Fairleigh Dickinson (273.0)NECH70-64W100%0.0
3-1Bryant (285.0)NECH100-78W100%0.0
3-4Wagner (244.0)NECA70-71W100%0.0
3-7Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECA71-61L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC26.6026.6051.6851.680.890.89
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.925.9251.6151.610.190.19
WagnerNEC5.855.8553.8553.850.450.45
BryantNEC5.785.7835.7135.71-1.65-1.65
Robert MorrisNEC4.404.4045.1645.16-0.43-0.43
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.304.3033.3333.33-1.43-1.43
Sacred HeartNEC4.294.2943.3343.33-0.57-0.57
LIU BrooklynNEC4.274.2762.0762.071.031.03
Central ConnecticutNEC4.274.2718.5218.52-2.69-2.69
St. Francis NYNEC4.224.2210.7110.71-3.31-3.31
LehighPat1.811.8160.0060.000.360.36
AmericanPat1.771.7727.5927.59-0.80-0.80
DuquesneA101.771.7729.0329.03-0.74-0.74
Stony BrookAE1.751.7556.6756.670.230.23
BinghamtonAE1.751.7528.5728.57-0.75-0.75
St. BonaventureA101.661.6661.2961.290.380.38
Texas A&MSEC1.641.6450.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun1.641.6428.5728.57-0.70-0.70
LongwoodBSth1.611.6114.8114.81-1.14-1.14
MarquetteBE1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
UMass LowellAE0.380.3833.3333.33-0.13-0.13
Loyola MDPat0.310.3146.6746.67-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
HartfordAE0.270.2728.1228.12-0.12-0.12
BucknellPat0.250.2576.4776.470.130.13
MaineAE0.240.2419.3519.35-0.15-0.15
BrownIvy0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
LafayettePat0.240.2427.5927.59-0.11-0.11
FordhamA100.240.2438.7138.71-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.210.2129.0329.03-0.09-0.09
New HampshireAE0.210.2158.6258.620.040.04
YaleIvy0.210.2160.7160.710.050.05
UMBCAE0.200.2057.1457.140.030.03
Seton HallBE0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
AlbanyAE0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
MassachusettsA100.180.1845.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
NavyPat0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.160.1625.9325.93-0.08-0.08
Holy CrossPat0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
George MasonA100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
LipscombASun0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
RutgersB100.140.1443.7543.75-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
St. John'sBE0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.120.1273.5373.530.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
VermontAE0.110.1184.8584.850.080.08
PennIvy0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1055.8855.880.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.100.1028.1228.12-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
RichmondA100.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1068.5768.570.040.04
West VirginiaB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
VillanovaBE0.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
HarvardIvy0.080.0861.5461.540.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
KentuckySEC0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
RadfordBSth0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
WinthropBSth0.060.0680.0080.000.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02