St. Francis PA

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	303.2
Current RPI:	307
Expected SOS:	211
Current SOS:	230
Current Record:	5-18
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	4-8
Expected Conf Record:	6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-9
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	283
Expected OOC SOS:	44

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	262.1	0.24%
9-20	278.2	2.64%
8-21	290.6	12.87%
7-22	300.0	34.59%
6-23	308.7	39.42%
5-24	316.2	10.23%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Virginia Commonwealth (77.5)	CAA	A	63-57	L	0%	0.0
11-14	Lafayette (209.9)	Pat	H	81-84	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Bucknell (70.7)	Pat	A	73-42	L	0%	0.0
11-23	Colgate (296.1)	Pat	A	74-66	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Youngstown St. (154.7)	Horz	H	59-60	L	0%	0.0
11-28	Niagara (213.6)	MAAC	H	63-65	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	H	71-49	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	H	73-69	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Lehigh (110.6)	Pat	A	71-50	L	0%	0.0
12-10	American (151.6)	Pat	H	66-61	W	100%	0.0
12-20	Pittsburgh (68.6)	BE	A	71-47	L	0%	0.0
12-23	St. Bonaventure (94.6)	A10	A	82-58	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Drexel (79.6)	CAA	A	63-42	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Central Connecticut (234.8)	NEC	A	69-58	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	A	59-56	L	0%	0.0
1-12	Sacred Heart (241.2)	NEC	H	68-71	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	H	74-71	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Monmouth (274.7)	NEC	A	68-50	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	A	63-69	W	100%	0.0
1-26	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	H	65-75	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	H	76-97	L	0%	0.0
2-2	Mount St. Mary's (289.3)	NEC	A	64-51	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Wagner (83.3)	NEC	A	72-54	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	H	0-0		17%	-10.5
2-11	Robert Morris (110.5)	NEC	A	0-0		6%	-17.0
2-16	Bryant (334.5)	NEC	H	0-0		72%	6.5
2-18	Central Connecticut (234.8)	NEC	H	0-0		34%	-4.6
2-23	Sacred Heart (241.2)	NEC	A	0-0		20%	-9.1
2-25	Quinnipiac (174.4)	NEC	A	0-0		11%	-13.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Francis PA	NEC	26.26	26.25	19.59	20.45	-15.97	-15.51
Robert Morris	NEC	0.83	4.32	68.00	68.77	0.30	1.62
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.91	4.32	59.09	58.07	0.53	0.70
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.78	4.24	41.67	42.85	-0.46	-0.61
Bryant	NEC	2.78	4.23	4.35	7.05	-2.54	-3.64
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.76	4.22	42.86	42.80	-0.39	-0.61
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	4.81	4.20	9.52	13.03	-3.90	-3.11
Monmouth	NEC	4.77	4.18	26.09	27.42	-2.28	-1.89
Wagner	NEC	2.87	2.63	81.82	84.03	1.82	1.79
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.82	2.59	54.55	54.40	0.26	0.23
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	2.77	2.57	22.73	26.06	-1.51	-1.23
Long Island	NEC	2.78	2.57	69.57	70.06	1.09	1.03
Lafayette	Pat	2.73	2.22	40.91	40.94	-0.50	-0.40
Lehigh	Pat	2.60	2.17	72.73	74.05	1.18	1.04
American	Pat	2.50	2.05	68.18	66.06	0.91	0.66
Colgate	Pat	2.50	2.05	27.27	26.97	-1.14	-0.94
Bucknell	Pat	2.36	1.96	72.73	74.14	1.07	0.95
Niagara	MAAC	2.37	1.90	33.33	38.38	-0.79	-0.44
Pittsburgh	BE	2.22	1.81	60.87	58.17	0.48	0.30
Drexel	CAA	2.26	1.78	78.26	77.29	1.28	0.97
Youngstown St.	Horz	2.17	1.78	50.00	51.49	0.00	0.05
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	2.22	1.75	79.17	77.35	1.29	0.96
St. Bonaventure	A10	2.22	1.75	57.89	57.58	0.35	0.27
Army	Pat	0.43	0.45	40.91	41.68	-0.08	-0.07
Navy	Pat	0.47	0.44	9.52	13.17	-0.38	-0.33
Holy Cross	Pat	0.33	0.35	40.91	42.03	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.32	0.29	27.27	23.78	-0.15	-0.15
La Salle	A10	0.19	0.24	70.83	68.83	0.08	0.09
Hartford	AE	0.23	0.23	20.83	22.81	-0.13	-0.13
Yale	Ivy	0.19	0.23	72.22	63.23	0.08	0.06
Albany	AE	0.37	0.23	57.69	58.54	0.06	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.32	0.23	32.00	35.39	-0.11	-0.07
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.23	20.83	23.73	-0.13	-0.12
Rider	MAAC	0.22	0.22	40.00	39.70	-0.04	-0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.16	0.18	82.61	81.41	0.10	0.11
Columbia	Ivy	0.28	0.18	55.00	54.81	0.03	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.28	0.18	33.33	38.39	-0.09	-0.04
Fordham	A10	0.24	0.18	40.91	34.45	-0.04	-0.05
Vermont	AE	0.19	0.18	61.54	63.84	0.04	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.24	0.17	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.18	0.17	76.00	72.48	0.09	0.08
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.15	73.91	68.65	0.05	0.06
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.24	0.15	78.26	74.29	0.13	0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.15	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.19	0.14	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.18	0.14	56.52	54.88	0.02	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.14	0.14	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.18	0.14	12.50	13.42	-0.13	-0.10
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.14	34.78	37.18	-0.03	-0.04
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.14	40.00	40.17	-0.01	-0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.13	0.14	65.22	62.67	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.18	0.14	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.19	0.12	41.67	38.63	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.20	0.12	36.84	41.47	-0.05	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.14	0.12	13.04	14.47	-0.10	-0.08
Princeton	Ivy	0.19	0.12	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.14	0.12	14.29	17.12	-0.10	-0.08
Siena	MAAC	0.15	0.12	43.48	45.03	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.14	0.12	79.17	74.20	0.08	0.06
Marist	MAAC	0.14	0.12	34.78	33.44	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.12	68.18	68.98	0.05	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.18	0.12	69.57	65.88	0.07	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.18	0.12	47.83	50.66	-0.01	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.18	0.11	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.11	30.43	26.42	-0.03	-0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.18	0.11	66.67	69.71	0.06	0.04
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.11	60.00	58.30	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.13	0.11	4.00	5.27	-0.12	-0.10
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.09	77.27	73.50	0.05	0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.09	68.42	66.51	0.06	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.42	0.02	0.02
Boston University	AE	0.09	0.09	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.14	0.09	0.00	4.04	-0.14	-0.08
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.09	95.83	92.00	0.13	0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.09	69.57	70.42	0.05	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.09	17.39	19.76	-0.06	-0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.09	56.52	55.22	0.02	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.09	65.22	63.65	0.03	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.09	0.09	33.33	37.75	-0.03	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.09	47.83	48.56	-0.01	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.13	0.08	79.17	80.14	0.08	0.05
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.08	39.13	36.12	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.04	0.08	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.06	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.06	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.06	28.57	29.05	-0.04	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.10	0.06	18.18	19.91	-0.07	-0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.55	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.06	35.00	39.40	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.10	0.06	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.06	41.67	40.47	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.06	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.06	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.04
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.03	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.05	-0.03
Longwood	ind	0.09	0.06	28.57	25.79	-0.04	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.09	0.06	19.05	19.39	-0.06	-0.04
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.06	70.83	62.75	0.04	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.06	34.78	32.05	-0.03	-0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.06	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.06	80.95	77.45	0.06	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.06	80.00	76.67	0.06	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.11	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.27	-0.00	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	0.00	5.31	-0.05	-0.05
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.07	0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.06	43.48	43.89	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.00	0.06	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.06	68.00	69.08	0.03	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.06	69.57	71.58	0.00	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.06	86.96	83.30	0.06	0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.00	0.06	81.82	77.18	0.00	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.06	66.67	65.98	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.06	34.78	34.46	-0.03	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.00	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.00	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.84	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.03	37.50	38.36	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.00	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.00	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.02	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.03	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	38.89	41.49	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.03	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.03	36.36	39.73	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.03	70.83	66.50	0.02	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.03	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.03	45.45	47.09	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.03	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.00
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.31	-0.02	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	74.01	0.02	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.03	8.70	13.12	-0.04	-0.02
Texas St.	Slnd	0.05	0.03	22.22	27.56	-0.03	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.75	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.04	0.03	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.37	0.02	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.03	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.05	0.03	71.43	73.45	0.02	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.04	0.03	72.00	72.22	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.04	0.03	91.67	87.92	0.04	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.04	0.03	34.78	33.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.00	0.03	62.50	61.43	0.00	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.03	47.83	42.67	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	26.32	29.85	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.03	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.04	0.03	73.91	75.47	0.02	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.03	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.04	0.03	40.91	39.81	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.03	45.00	44.18	-0.00	-0.00