live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


St. Francis PA

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:277.5
Current RPI:319
Expected SOS:307
Current SOS:335
Current Record:2-4
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-9
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:271
Expected OOC SOS:213



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-9130.00.02%
18-10147.30.12%
17-11162.20.38%
16-12186.11.18%
15-13205.73.60%
14-14227.27.50%
13-15247.713.31%
12-16267.316.81%
11-17284.419.47%
10-18299.716.61%
9-19312.010.95%
8-20322.36.10%
7-21330.32.71%
6-22336.10.97%
5-23341.20.21%
4-24344.20.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12St. Bonaventure (59.0)A10A92-82L0%0.0
11-16Duquesne (228.7)A10A89-75L0%0.0
11-23Longwood (332.7)BSthH87-72W100%0.0
11-26American (290.4)PatA62-69W100%0.0
11-30NJIT (197.6)ASunA83-70L0%0.0
12-3Binghamton (256.1)AEH70-73L0%0.0
12-12Lehigh (91.3)PatA0-010%-15.4
12-17Stony Brook (275.0)AEH0-058%2.5
12-19Marquette (46.7)BEA0-02%-25.9
12-21Texas A&M (42.8)SECA0-02%-25.2
12-29Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECA0-035%-4.8
12-31Sacred Heart (320.3)NECA0-053%0.8
1-5St. Francis NY (327.4)NECH0-074%7.8
1-7LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECH0-053%0.8
1-12Robert Morris (241.7)NECA0-032%-5.7
1-14Mount St. Mary's (177.3)NECA0-024%-8.4
1-19Bryant (215.8)NECH0-051%0.3
1-21Central Connecticut (313.7)NECH0-069%5.9
1-26Wagner (216.1)NECA0-025%-8.2
1-28Robert Morris (241.7)NECH0-052%0.6
2-2St. Francis NY (327.4)NECA0-055%1.5
2-4LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECA0-032%-5.5
2-9Wagner (216.1)NECH0-043%-2.0
2-11Mount St. Mary's (177.3)NECH0-043%-2.2
2-16Central Connecticut (313.7)NECA0-049%-0.4
2-18Bryant (215.8)NECA0-031%-6.0
2-23Sacred Heart (320.3)NECH0-072%7.0
2-25Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECH0-055%1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
St. Francis PANEC28.5326.3938.4641.80-6.58-4.33
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.6022.2240.58-0.00-0.87
Central ConnecticutNEC0.524.5933.3332.30-0.17-1.63
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.004.5711.1146.93-0.00-0.28
WagnerNEC0.604.5633.3353.56-0.200.32
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.5437.5033.47-0.00-1.50
BryantNEC0.004.5425.0047.01-0.00-0.27
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.5471.4355.700.000.52
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.5414.2926.13-0.00-2.17
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.5316.6738.59-0.00-1.03
LehighPat0.001.9942.8665.81-0.000.63
DuquesneA108.331.9637.5040.10-2.08-0.39
AmericanPat8.331.9516.6732.47-5.56-0.68
Stony BrookAE0.001.9128.5738.02-0.00-0.46
BinghamtonAE8.331.9142.8641.47-1.19-0.33
St. BonaventureA108.331.8466.6769.372.780.71
NJITASun8.331.8242.8647.91-1.19-0.08
Texas A&MSEC0.601.8266.6765.080.200.55
LongwoodBSth8.331.7925.0022.64-4.17-0.98
MarquetteBE0.001.7975.0065.310.000.55
UMass LowellAE0.520.4022.2238.49-0.29-0.09
Loyola MDPat0.460.3342.8645.94-0.07-0.03
ArmyPat0.000.3142.8650.09-0.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.3022.2226.33-0.00-0.14
MaineAE0.830.2814.2924.15-0.60-0.14
LafayettePat0.520.2733.3333.36-0.17-0.09
FordhamA100.000.2750.0041.310.00-0.05
BrownIvy0.000.2455.5646.970.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.2466.6766.340.000.08
ColgatePat0.520.2212.5029.71-0.39-0.09
New HampshireAE0.000.2257.1458.840.000.04
UMBCAE0.460.2180.0054.540.280.02
YaleIvy0.000.2142.8663.41-0.000.06
ProvidenceBE0.000.1975.0056.590.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.1842.8661.11-0.000.04
Boston UniversityPat0.000.1842.8654.90-0.000.02
NavyPat0.000.1825.0037.38-0.00-0.05
Seton HallBE0.000.1871.4354.560.000.02
Holy CrossPat0.000.1837.5047.37-0.00-0.01
RutgersB100.000.1685.7145.370.00-0.01
MassachusettsA100.000.1571.4358.600.000.03
TowsonCAA0.000.1542.8653.19-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.830.150.0020.55-0.83-0.09
St. John'sBE0.520.1537.5037.03-0.13-0.04
George MasonA100.000.1562.5046.900.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.1587.5068.020.000.05
LipscombASun0.000.1312.5033.04-0.00-0.04
VermontAE0.000.1362.5071.320.000.05
FairfieldMAAC0.000.1271.4359.880.000.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1257.1450.420.000.00
PennIvy0.000.1233.3356.57-0.000.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1262.5043.220.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.460.1237.5044.39-0.12-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1285.7166.190.000.04
DaytonA100.000.1271.4373.490.000.06
Saint LouisA100.000.1228.5723.78-0.00-0.06
VirginiaACC0.000.1287.5078.510.000.07
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6735.430.00-0.03
RichmondA100.000.1250.0048.210.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.520.1057.1471.940.070.04
IonaMAAC0.000.1057.1464.030.000.03
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0076.630.000.05
XavierBE0.000.0987.5070.890.000.04
La SalleA100.000.0966.6755.540.000.01
VCUA100.520.0975.0073.060.260.04
NortheasternCAA0.000.0950.0044.400.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.000.09100.0084.840.000.06
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0925.0035.09-0.00-0.03
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0950.0046.240.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0957.1429.790.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0914.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8638.17-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.460.0987.5082.800.350.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0942.8645.30-0.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0975.0068.370.000.03
BuffaloMAC0.600.0933.3352.21-0.200.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0955.5641.690.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.460.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0985.7183.660.000.06
CampbellBSth0.000.0742.8639.20-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0720.0037.65-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0733.3339.61-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0733.3352.11-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0742.8646.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3348.07-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0775.0070.620.000.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0714.2938.26-0.00-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0733.3327.06-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0728.5734.28-0.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0750.0048.810.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0757.1467.260.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0750.0071.070.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0625.0030.23-0.00-0.03
North FloridaASun0.000.0612.5034.79-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0644.4441.30-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0675.0048.030.00-0.00
MarylandB100.600.0687.5059.330.450.01
HowardMEAC0.600.0616.6744.34-0.40-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0671.4355.160.000.01
FloridaSEC0.600.0687.5075.240.450.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0655.5647.890.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0091.920.000.05
HarvardIvy0.000.0620.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0625.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.02
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0657.1442.530.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0657.1471.520.000.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0051.040.000.00
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0066.170.000.02
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
OhioMAC0.000.0683.3371.480.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0671.4363.170.000.02
PittsburghACC0.460.0675.0049.180.23-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.000.0662.5069.130.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
Iowa St.B120.000.0671.4368.070.000.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0687.5059.310.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6739.20-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.35-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.390.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.830.0312.5030.68-0.62-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.830.0325.0055.33-0.420.00
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0375.0066.370.000.01
CornellIvy0.520.0328.5729.95-0.22-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0312.5037.99-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.520.0314.2936.02-0.37-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.520.0350.0060.620.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.520.0312.5029.15-0.39-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.360.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.520.030.0038.27-0.52-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
PurdueB100.520.0375.0075.340.260.02
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.520.0342.8650.06-0.070.00
AkronMAC0.600.0371.4368.980.260.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0342.8642.62-0.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.600.030.0016.68-0.60-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.600.0371.4356.250.260.00
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0366.6740.030.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0337.5051.64-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.600.0366.6761.330.200.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0041.92-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.600.0342.8633.23-0.09-0.01
SienaMAAC0.600.0337.5052.01-0.150.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.850.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0027.12-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
USCP120.000.03100.0076.680.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.460.0328.5731.44-0.20-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.58-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.460.0366.6746.420.15-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.460.0375.0054.670.230.00