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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:262.0
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:338
Current SOS:338
Current Record:12-14
Expected Record:12-14
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC Record:2-6
Expected OOC RPI:284
Expected OOC SOS:300



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-14262.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Auburn (169.0)SECA76-54L0%0.0
11-14North Texas (195.0)CUSAA92-78L0%0.0
11-19Troy (285.0)SBA77-62L0%0.0
11-23Memphis (37.0)AmerA98-59L0%0.0
11-26UTSA (306.0)CUSAH79-73W100%0.0
12-14San Francisco (68.0)WCCA77-48L0%0.0
12-18IUPUI (322.0)SumA56-62W100%0.0
12-20Indiana (102.0)B10A79-66L0%0.0
1-2New Orleans (260.0)SlndH88-83W100%0.0
1-4Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndH64-61W100%0.0
1-9Lamar (344.0)SlndA60-64W100%0.0
1-11Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA88-61L0%0.0
1-16Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndH66-64W100%0.0
1-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndH67-70L0%0.0
1-21McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA79-87W100%0.0
1-30Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndH73-72W100%0.0
2-1Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndH78-67W100%0.0
2-6Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndA93-64L0%0.0
2-8Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndA86-73L0%0.0
2-13New Orleans (260.0)SlndA70-64L0%0.0
2-15Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndA71-66L0%0.0
2-22McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH68-59W100%0.0
3-6Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA62-75W100%0.0
3-8Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA58-44L0%0.0
3-12Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)SlndN71-64W100%0.0
3-13Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndN88-72L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd26.5026.5052.9452.941.561.56
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd6.576.5730.4330.43-2.57-2.57
McNeese St.Slnd4.804.8028.0028.00-2.11-2.11
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd4.714.7150.0050.000.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd4.704.7044.0044.00-0.56-0.56
New OrleansSlnd4.664.6635.0035.00-1.40-1.40
Houston BaptistSlnd4.644.6416.0016.00-3.15-3.15
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.013.0167.8667.861.081.08
Oral RobertsSlnd2.932.9346.4346.43-0.21-0.21
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.892.8992.8692.862.482.48
Central ArkansasSlnd2.882.8825.0025.00-1.44-1.44
LamarSlnd2.882.8811.1111.11-2.24-2.24
North TexasCUSA2.142.1442.8642.86-0.31-0.31
UTSACUSA2.022.0223.0823.08-1.09-1.09
AuburnSEC1.991.9944.8344.83-0.21-0.21
MemphisAmer1.991.9970.0070.000.800.80
TroySB1.961.9628.5728.57-0.84-0.84
IndianaB101.921.9251.6151.610.060.06
IUPUISum1.921.9210.7110.71-1.51-1.51
San FranciscoWCC1.921.9262.0762.070.460.46
LSUSEC0.400.4059.3859.380.080.08
RiceCUSA0.350.3517.8617.86-0.23-0.23
UTEPCUSA0.260.2667.7467.740.090.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.2578.7978.790.140.14
Michigan St.B100.220.2276.4776.470.120.12
Western IllinoisSum0.210.2125.9325.93-0.10-0.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.2125.8125.81-0.10-0.10
MinnesotaB100.190.1959.3859.380.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
MissouriSEC0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
East CarolinaCUSA0.180.1844.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.180.1842.4242.42-0.03-0.03
Georgia St.SB0.170.1774.1974.190.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
IPFWSum0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
SMUAmer0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
HoustonAmer0.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1480.6580.650.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1434.6234.62-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Texas St.SB0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
Arkansas Little RockSB0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.120.1276.4776.470.070.07
IllinoisB100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1048.1548.15-0.00-0.00
BaylorB120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
TulaneCUSA0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.1041.1841.18-0.02-0.02
FloridaSEC0.100.1094.1294.120.080.08
GonzagaWCC0.100.1081.8281.820.060.06
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
HawaiiBW0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
ArmyPat0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.2121.21-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
Wright St.Horz0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
RutgersAmer0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Penn St.B100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.040.0431.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.040.0438.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0445.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IdahoWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
ToledoMAC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
AmericanPat0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00