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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:335.6
Current RPI:323
Expected SOS:259
Current SOS:157
Current Record:2-18
Expected Record:4-25
Current Conf Record:1-8
Expected Conf Record:3-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-12
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:215
Expected OOC SOS:5



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20281.10.17%
8-21300.01.03%
7-22313.04.41%
6-23325.213.84%
5-24333.625.90%
4-25339.830.40%
3-26344.119.22%
2-27346.95.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Florida St. (51.1)ACCA109-62L0%0.0
11-22Hawaii (96.9)BWA99-74L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico (90.1)MWCA75-63L0%0.0
12-10San Diego St. (55.3)MWCA84-47L0%0.0
12-14North Texas (309.6)CUSAA78-60L0%0.0
12-16SMU (12.3)AmerA86-42L0%0.0
12-18Colorado (40.5)P12A85-68L0%0.0
12-22Hampton (195.3)MEACN81-84W100%0.0
12-23Canisius (224.8)MAACN83-74L0%0.0
12-28Houston (99.4)AmerA76-49L0%0.0
1-2Lamar (329.4)SlndH67-79L0%0.0
1-5Memphis (126.0)AmerA82-46L0%0.0
1-9Abilene Christian (321.6)SlndH63-62W100%0.0
1-13Houston Baptist (198.5)SlndA78-69L0%0.0
1-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (121.1)SlndA76-71L0%0.0
1-18Sam Houston St. (185.2)SlndA87-76L0%0.0
1-23Central Arkansas (332.3)SlndH83-94L0%0.0
1-25Northwestern St. (333.6)SlndH80-88L0%0.0
1-30Incarnate Word (174.7)SlndA68-61L0%0.0
2-1New Orleans (296.0)SlndA74-53L0%0.0
2-6McNeese St. (312.5)SlndH0-042%-2.3
2-8Incarnate Word (174.7)SlndH0-020%-9.1
2-13Southeastern Louisiana (334.7)SlndA0-023%-8.2
2-20Stephen F. Austin (97.3)SlndH0-05%-17.8
2-22Northwestern St. (333.6)SlndA0-024%-7.6
2-27McNeese St. (312.5)SlndA0-021%-8.9
2-29New Orleans (296.0)SlndH0-034%-4.5
3-3Central Arkansas (332.3)SlndA0-030%-5.9
3-5Southeastern Louisiana (334.7)SlndH0-044%-1.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd26.2926.3110.5315.85-20.76-17.97
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.494.3110.5322.32-0.39-2.38
Central ArkansasSlnd2.934.2811.7619.58-2.24-2.60
New OrleansSlnd2.924.2625.0034.77-1.46-1.30
McNeese St.Slnd0.514.2618.7530.07-0.32-1.70
Northwestern St.Slnd2.994.2613.3320.49-2.19-2.51
Incarnate WordSlnd2.854.1350.0052.160.000.18
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.072.5644.4448.61-0.34-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.412.5568.7573.930.161.22
LamarSlnd2.992.5529.4130.00-1.23-1.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.872.5572.2269.301.280.98
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.942.5435.2934.84-0.86-0.77
Houston BaptistSlnd2.932.5152.9448.950.17-0.05
SMUAmer2.861.9390.0085.062.281.35
MemphisAmer2.561.8157.1457.170.370.26
HoustonAmer2.621.8171.4366.901.120.61
ColoradoP122.621.7871.4365.831.120.56
Florida St.ACC2.501.7866.6761.980.830.43
New MexicoMWC2.501.7861.9062.890.600.46
HamptonMEAC2.621.7863.1663.710.690.49
San Diego St.MWC2.501.7870.0069.771.000.70
North TexasCUSA2.571.7626.3226.94-1.22-0.81
CanisiusMAAC2.501.7239.1341.98-0.54-0.28
HawaiiBW2.501.7282.3579.371.621.01
TulaneAmer0.250.2733.3332.41-0.08-0.09
OklahomaB120.280.2690.4884.890.230.18
CincinnatiAmer0.170.2373.9173.090.080.11
RiceCUSA0.400.2225.0028.19-0.20-0.10
TulsaAmer0.190.2063.6459.950.050.04
CaliforniaP120.320.1963.6461.810.090.04
East CarolinaAmer0.230.1745.4541.98-0.02-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.170.1772.7372.440.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.230.1720.8320.11-0.13-0.10
UC RiversideBW0.280.1647.8343.92-0.01-0.02
AuburnSEC0.260.1642.8637.19-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.250.1640.0044.95-0.05-0.02
HowardMEAC0.140.1640.0042.53-0.03-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.200.1590.0086.120.160.11
Florida A&MMEAC0.190.1521.0523.70-0.11-0.08
TCUB120.200.1545.4537.84-0.02-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.190.1560.0057.290.040.02
Colorado St.MWC0.250.1550.0048.750.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.170.1461.9058.420.040.02
UCFAmer0.120.1455.0047.170.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.1457.8961.920.010.03
MassachusettsA100.140.1342.8639.84-0.02-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.190.1252.1754.140.010.01
UTSACUSA0.200.1214.2913.97-0.14-0.09
NevadaMWC0.190.1257.8956.110.030.01
WyomingMWC0.170.1240.9140.46-0.03-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.120.1266.6766.030.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1225.0022.58-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.170.1252.3857.440.010.02
Utah St.MWC0.180.1247.3749.38-0.01-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.110.1142.8635.05-0.02-0.03
BaylorB120.080.1076.1967.350.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.150.1050.0050.860.000.00
ArizonaP120.080.1078.2677.230.040.05
Texas St.SB0.070.1041.1840.28-0.01-0.02
MississippiSEC0.130.1063.6456.050.040.01
LSUSEC0.060.1063.6459.440.020.02
UCLAP120.000.1056.5253.350.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.1010.0014.87-0.06-0.07
PurdueB100.140.1082.6178.230.090.05
UC IrvineBW0.070.1072.7371.670.030.04
Cal PolyBW0.140.0931.5836.16-0.05-0.03
Arizona St.P120.070.0952.1750.240.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.130.0942.8651.33-0.020.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0921.7424.60-0.04-0.05
NebraskaB100.070.0952.1751.560.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.190.0975.0073.480.100.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.180.0981.8281.010.110.06
PittsburghACC0.130.0980.0070.290.080.04
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0981.8281.010.040.06
Georgia TechACC0.000.0954.5552.750.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.180.0963.6468.210.050.03
RiderMAAC0.120.0941.6743.51-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0975.0072.220.030.04
SouthernSWAC0.060.0963.1666.150.010.03
Southern MissCUSA0.120.0933.3333.64-0.04-0.03
UtahP120.120.0972.7368.550.050.03
StanfordP120.170.0952.6347.690.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.110.0938.1033.45-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.160.0845.0043.19-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0750.0054.850.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0750.0050.510.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0782.6177.370.000.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0744.4448.52-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0727.2724.41-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.070.0761.9058.190.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0755.0048.870.01-0.00
BradleyMVC0.070.078.709.77-0.06-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0766.6758.760.020.01
NorthwesternB100.070.0766.6763.480.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0727.2730.43-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.130.0628.5734.73-0.05-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.070.0636.8432.84-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0630.0028.61-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0621.0529.16-0.04-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0638.1047.51-0.01-0.00
Texas TechB120.140.0661.9054.010.030.01
UC DavisBW0.070.0636.8434.20-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.140.0640.0049.74-0.03-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.0681.8278.320.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.0615.0015.65-0.09-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.070.0652.1747.250.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.130.0652.1747.620.01-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.0617.3921.76-0.09-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.130.0650.0050.040.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.130.0634.7837.55-0.04-0.02
RutgersB100.070.0622.7320.68-0.04-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0647.6257.27-0.000.01
MichiganB100.130.0672.7367.980.060.02
New HampshireAE0.130.0652.6351.510.010.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.0626.3236.93-0.06-0.02
PortlandWCC0.130.0637.5036.54-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0636.3642.19-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0642.8647.27-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0650.0056.540.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0654.5561.950.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0623.8128.31-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.0665.0068.750.040.02
ClemsonACC0.110.0663.6462.340.030.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0680.9575.640.040.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.0652.1749.340.00-0.00
OregonP120.110.0681.8278.210.070.03
Oregon St.P120.060.0660.0054.590.010.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6762.710.000.01
WashingtonP120.060.0668.1862.190.020.01
BYUWCC0.110.0669.5773.030.040.03
HofstraCAA0.110.0668.1865.420.040.02
Kent St.MAC0.110.0666.6761.680.040.01
Penn St.B100.110.0647.8343.63-0.00-0.01
USCP120.060.0678.2673.130.030.03
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0652.1752.980.000.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0659.0959.680.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0619.0521.40-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.100.0679.1780.770.060.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0625.0025.48-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.100.0638.1037.53-0.02-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0638.1041.92-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0666.6767.290.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0342.1142.70-0.01-0.00
LibertyBSth0.070.0331.8232.92-0.03-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0335.0036.57-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.060.0331.8232.71-0.02-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.070.0357.8957.330.010.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0315.7922.51-0.04-0.02
DrakeMVC0.070.0322.7324.85-0.04-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0327.2732.84-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0338.1041.23-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0326.0930.33-0.03-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.035.2610.18-0.06-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0366.6767.310.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0370.5974.500.030.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0331.5833.51-0.02-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0376.1976.220.040.02
William & MaryCAA0.060.0370.0069.360.030.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0365.0063.370.020.01
ElonCAA0.070.0354.5553.020.010.00
FurmanSC0.070.0354.5553.780.010.00
TexasB120.070.0368.1861.780.020.01
WisconsinB100.070.0360.8755.900.010.00
CreightonBE0.060.0360.8759.050.010.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0342.8645.93-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0357.1457.940.010.00
KansasB120.060.0380.9577.000.040.02
MarshallCUSA0.060.0347.8350.56-0.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0370.0068.920.030.01
SamfordSC0.060.0340.9143.37-0.01-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0333.3329.23-0.02-0.01
TroySB0.060.0320.0023.76-0.04-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0381.8278.720.040.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0347.6247.96-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0331.8226.61-0.02-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0333.3331.83-0.02-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0336.3634.95-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0372.7369.920.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0338.1042.99-0.01-0.00
FloridaSEC0.060.0368.1867.800.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.0377.2776.130.000.02
IowaB100.060.0381.8279.900.040.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0372.7368.840.030.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0347.6247.86-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.060.0381.8277.490.040.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0342.8641.75-0.01-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0347.6252.92-0.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0359.0959.470.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0386.3680.660.040.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0368.1863.720.000.01
OhioMAC0.060.0360.0057.960.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.034.7614.01-0.05-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0354.5555.990.010.00
VCUA100.060.0377.2776.780.030.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0381.8276.020.040.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0345.4542.14-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.060.0372.2273.760.030.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0352.1754.400.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.510.010.00
CornellIvy0.050.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0333.3332.01-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0316.6720.71-0.04-0.02
IUPUISum0.060.0341.6740.25-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0330.0036.08-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0340.9139.22-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.060.0358.3354.120.010.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0385.7176.030.040.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0314.2916.31-0.04-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0370.0069.070.020.01