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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:252
Expected SOS:272
Current SOS:272
Current Record:10-17
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:129
Expected OOC SOS:89



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-17252.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Boston College (219.0)ACCA73-79W100%0.0
11-14UCF (68.0)AmerA80-56L0%0.0
11-20San Diego (205.0)WCCA81-72L0%0.0
11-22New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA86-74L0%0.0
11-25Bethune Cookman (346.0)MEACN76-69W100%0.0
11-27Samford (170.0)SCA103-106W100%0.0
12-1Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA101-69L0%0.0
12-8Florida St. (14.0)ACCA118-63L0%0.0
12-14Texas Tech (124.0)B12A89-46L0%0.0
12-31Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH94-84W100%0.0
1-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH68-64W100%0.0
1-7Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA74-61L0%0.0
1-12Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA86-81L0%0.0
1-14Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndA80-60L0%0.0
1-19Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH62-59W100%0.0
1-21Lamar (232.0)SlndH76-87L0%0.0
1-26Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndA83-80L0%0.0
1-28McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH78-74W100%0.0
2-1Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndA72-44L0%0.0
2-4New Orleans (154.0)SlndA78-69L0%0.0
2-11Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA106-83L0%0.0
2-16Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH96-89W100%0.0
2-18Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH78-80L0%0.0
2-23Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndA68-77W100%0.0
2-25Southeastern Louisiana (248.0)SlndH77-71W100%0.0
3-2Lamar (232.0)SlndA87-75L0%0.0
3-4New Orleans (154.0)SlndH64-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd26.2726.2741.1241.12-4.66-4.66
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.584.5846.4346.43-0.33-0.33
New OrleansSlnd4.564.5657.6957.690.700.70
Central ArkansasSlnd4.554.5523.3323.33-2.43-2.43
LamarSlnd4.544.5448.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Northwestern St.Slnd4.484.4830.4330.43-1.75-1.75
Incarnate WordSlnd4.434.4334.7834.78-1.35-1.35
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.862.8655.1755.170.300.30
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.852.8550.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.802.8062.9662.960.730.73
Houston BaptistSlnd2.782.7848.0048.00-0.11-0.11
McNeese St.Slnd2.752.7520.0020.00-1.65-1.65
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.742.7437.5037.50-0.69-0.69
SamfordSC1.971.9754.8454.840.190.19
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.971.9727.5927.59-0.88-0.88
Texas TechB121.961.9654.8454.840.190.19
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.951.9560.0060.000.390.39
New Mexico St.WAC1.941.9482.7682.761.271.27
San DiegoWCC1.941.9437.9337.93-0.47-0.47
Florida St.ACC1.911.9175.0075.000.950.95
UCFAmer1.881.8864.5264.520.550.55
Boston CollegeACC1.881.8829.0329.03-0.79-0.79
RiceCUSA0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
Oklahoma St.B120.210.2161.2961.290.050.05
Little RockSB0.210.2143.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.200.2045.1645.16-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
TulaneAmer0.190.1919.3519.35-0.12-0.12
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.180.1837.5037.50-0.05-0.05
OklahomaB120.170.1735.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Louisiana MonroeSB0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
San FranciscoWCC0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
TexasB120.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1517.8617.86-0.10-0.10
North TexasCUSA0.150.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
Notre DameACC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
Texas St.SB0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
UTSACUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
ChattanoogaSC0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1067.6567.650.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0987.5087.500.070.07
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Idaho St.BSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
PortlandWCC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Arizona St.P120.090.0945.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
South FloridaAmer0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
FurmanSC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Kansas St.B120.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
VMISC0.090.0914.2914.29-0.06-0.06
SyracuseACC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MissouriSEC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0612.9012.90-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
CaliforniaP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.060.0696.9796.970.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
ArmyPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Iowa St.B120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
MercerSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
WoffordSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
New HampshireAE0.040.0458.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.040.0478.1278.120.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0459.3859.380.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
TroySB0.030.0358.8258.820.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02