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Through games of Dec 16, 2017.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:251.9
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:266
Current SOS:63
Current Record:2-5
Expected Record:11-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:2-5
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:34



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9114.50.02%
17-10141.60.21%
16-11159.80.89%
15-12177.72.31%
14-13197.25.95%
13-14215.511.40%
12-15233.917.17%
11-16251.320.33%
10-17268.517.70%
9-18285.212.35%
8-19300.37.34%
7-20314.23.12%
6-21323.80.96%
5-22331.00.22%
4-23339.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UT Rio Grande Valley (226.2)WACA106-111W100%0.0
11-14Villanova (2.2)BEA113-77L0%0.0
11-19Western Kentucky (57.9)CUSAA100-86L0%0.0
11-23Presbyterian (316.2)BSthN76-64W100%0.0
11-24UMBC (205.8)AEA89-88L0%0.0
12-1Louisiana Lafayette (119.2)SBH80-105L0%0.0
12-3Idaho (138.5)BSkyH68-79L0%0.0
12-18Tulane (127.6)AmerA0-011%-14.4
12-23Seattle (199.4)WACA0-021%-9.5
12-28Northwestern St. (319.1)SlndH0-079%9.6
12-30Incarnate Word (303.3)SlndH0-074%7.7
1-3Stephen F. Austin (111.5)SlndA0-013%-13.1
1-6Houston Baptist (258.4)SlndA0-034%-4.8
1-10McNeese St. (330.8)SlndH0-079%9.7
1-13Central Arkansas (198.1)SlndH0-042%-2.2
1-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (287.2)SlndH0-057%2.0
1-24Lamar (125.0)SlndA0-014%-12.6
1-27Southeastern Louisiana (252.6)SlndH0-058%2.5
2-3New Orleans (234.4)SlndA0-030%-6.3
2-7Abilene Christian (240.7)SlndA0-036%-4.3
2-10Houston Baptist (258.4)SlndH0-055%1.5
2-14Sam Houston St. (231.4)SlndH0-051%0.4
2-17Central Arkansas (198.1)SlndA0-023%-8.6
2-21McNeese St. (330.8)SlndA0-061%3.3
2-24New Orleans (234.4)SlndH0-050%0.1
2-28Northwestern St. (319.1)SlndA0-061%3.2
3-3Southeastern Louisiana (252.6)SlndA0-037%-3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd27.5526.3334.2942.64-8.66-3.87
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.004.6437.5042.470.00-0.70
McNeese St.Slnd0.404.600.0017.89-0.40-2.96
New OrleansSlnd0.404.580.0039.99-0.40-0.92
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.5620.0021.920.00-2.56
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.5150.0055.780.000.52
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.4812.5036.170.00-1.24
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.552.790.0034.84-0.55-0.84
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.452.7528.5743.26-0.19-0.37
LamarSlnd0.002.7380.0072.000.001.20
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.7287.5076.290.001.43
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.7225.0026.710.00-1.27
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.7257.1446.710.00-0.18
Louisiana LafayetteSB7.142.0675.0070.403.570.84
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC7.141.9950.0044.710.00-0.21
TulaneAmer0.001.9270.0055.080.000.20
SeattleWAC0.001.9250.0054.410.000.17
IdahoBSky7.141.8957.1464.371.020.54
VillanovaBE7.501.88100.0088.597.501.45
Western KentuckyCUSA7.471.8855.5667.420.830.66
PresbyterianBSth7.141.8550.0032.360.00-0.65
UMBCAE7.141.8544.4446.99-0.79-0.11
SMUAmer0.990.3072.7371.790.450.13
HoustonAmer0.000.2580.0069.720.000.10
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.2437.5037.430.00-0.06
Texas St.SB0.270.2344.4441.07-0.03-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.890.2340.0045.04-0.18-0.02
Little RockSB0.000.2220.0020.160.00-0.13
Chicago St.WAC0.750.200.003.12-0.75-0.18
RiceCUSA0.270.1711.1122.24-0.21-0.10
UMKCWAC0.000.1718.1830.220.00-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.000.1750.0040.000.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1655.5660.900.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1663.6451.550.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.270.1450.0047.930.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.1344.4448.830.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.1377.7863.110.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1370.0053.200.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.1355.5666.290.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.270.1330.0047.62-0.11-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.1377.7858.330.000.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1358.3366.990.000.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1370.0069.000.000.05
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1377.7875.840.000.07
ProvidenceBE0.000.1370.0052.870.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1214.2923.810.00-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1150.0040.250.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.1125.0039.550.00-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1040.0036.480.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.400.1050.0037.000.00-0.03
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1037.5049.300.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.1037.5048.680.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.100.009.230.00-0.08
DetroitHorz0.000.1022.2230.490.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1020.0045.450.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.1081.8268.230.000.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1030.0031.440.00-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1080.0054.440.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.400.1055.5659.410.040.02
UCFAmer0.000.1070.0056.000.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.270.1070.0071.590.110.04
CaliforniaP120.000.0950.0033.490.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.400.0925.0026.11-0.20-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.400.0918.1828.33-0.25-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.090.0030.290.00-0.04
TempleAmer0.320.0970.0060.250.130.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0727.2752.750.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0788.8964.990.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0754.5533.300.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0766.6766.470.000.02
TexasB120.000.0770.0058.580.000.01
UtahP120.000.0770.0060.800.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0754.5563.790.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0755.5665.420.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0766.6746.240.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.320.0781.8286.480.210.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.450.0725.0030.14-0.22-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.0783.3374.190.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.0760.0054.090.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0728.5730.330.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0711.1132.740.00-0.02
HartfordAE0.000.0740.0029.470.00-0.03
High PointBSth0.000.0716.6746.870.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0716.6730.510.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0744.4444.410.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0762.5069.910.000.03
MaineAE0.000.0711.1117.410.00-0.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0790.9186.060.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.570.00-0.04
New HampshireAE0.000.0711.1133.540.00-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0722.2231.850.00-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0762.5057.030.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0770.0064.900.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.0766.6769.300.000.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0742.8653.850.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0024.040.00-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0744.4450.780.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0720.0030.680.00-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0750.0046.890.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0730.0047.080.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0750.0041.830.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0750.0061.750.000.02
ValparaisoMVC0.000.0766.6761.490.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0733.3333.760.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0754.5573.360.000.03
Washington St.P120.450.0770.0047.020.18-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0742.8658.600.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0711.1121.140.00-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.270.0618.1840.50-0.17-0.01
TroySB0.000.0640.0047.510.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.720.0687.5070.170.540.03
Georgia St.SB0.000.0655.5657.570.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0655.5631.670.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0670.0052.780.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0675.0074.610.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0670.0076.590.000.03
OregonP120.000.0675.0068.890.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0662.5050.140.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0645.4530.290.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.0670.0062.040.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0670.0048.240.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0672.7357.600.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0654.5536.900.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0688.8949.620.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0670.0053.500.000.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0681.8270.990.000.03
XavierBE0.000.0690.9179.700.000.04
FloridaSEC0.000.0460.0064.800.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0477.7847.820.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0466.6747.890.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0450.0044.670.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0466.6766.180.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0344.4428.660.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0360.0045.170.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0375.0061.590.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0362.5062.870.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.200.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0388.8960.870.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0380.0070.250.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0344.4452.270.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0390.0070.120.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.039.0923.150.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.360.0372.7375.090.160.02
ArmyPat0.360.0355.5659.360.040.01
Cal PolyBW0.450.0330.0033.15-0.18-0.01
ColgatePat0.360.0340.0050.75-0.070.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.360.030.0021.23-0.36-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.360.030.0011.98-0.36-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0311.1130.740.00-0.01
MarylandB100.000.0375.0066.320.000.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0342.8657.930.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0344.4447.270.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.450.0380.0081.600.270.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.400.0350.0058.400.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.400.0372.7352.190.180.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0362.5075.090.000.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0312.5023.980.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0340.0040.890.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0381.8279.670.000.02
The CitadelSC0.360.0325.0022.18-0.18-0.02
TowsonCAA0.360.0388.8978.530.280.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.0325.0030.880.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.400.0366.6774.670.130.02
VMISC0.400.0337.5029.80-0.10-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0370.0055.230.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0337.5052.360.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0057.470.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0330.0045.020.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.270.0330.0047.79-0.11-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0390.0065.600.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0366.6768.050.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.270.0350.0035.610.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0312.5048.020.00-0.00
IowaB100.400.0350.0044.300.00-0.00
RichmondA100.400.0320.0024.40-0.24-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.400.0310.0026.95-0.32-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.270.0390.0077.650.220.02
WyomingMWC0.400.0372.7356.020.180.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0325.0040.970.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0381.8281.750.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.360.0333.3332.04-0.12-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0325.0032.360.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0342.8638.080.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0390.0071.940.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0340.0033.100.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.360.0333.3339.56-0.12-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0330.0039.740.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0355.5635.960.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.360.0372.7366.890.160.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0390.0077.260.000.02
OhioMAC0.360.0350.0055.840.000.00
PurdueB100.360.0384.6282.740.250.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0041.930.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8635.050.00-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.000.0380.0081.220.000.02
WisconsinB100.360.0341.6746.23-0.06-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.360.0355.5658.390.040.01
ColumbiaIvy0.320.039.0932.12-0.27-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6760.600.000.01
La SalleA100.320.0345.4549.14-0.03-0.00
LafayettePat0.320.0311.1125.97-0.25-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.320.0366.6767.910.110.01
PennIvy0.320.0363.6466.470.090.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.320.0344.4446.92-0.04-0.00