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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:279.7
Current RPI:42
Expected SOS:331
Current SOS:70
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:3-5
Expected OOC RPI:212
Expected OOC SOS:181



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-7132.40.07%
18-8150.30.33%
17-9173.30.84%
16-10191.81.97%
15-11214.25.09%
14-12236.18.40%
13-13254.913.56%
12-14273.816.92%
11-15290.117.72%
10-16305.115.23%
9-17317.610.49%
8-18326.95.49%
7-19335.02.60%
6-20341.40.88%
5-21345.90.37%
4-22348.00.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10UT Rio Grande Valley (269.0)WACA106-111W100%0.0
11-14Villanova (6.5)BEA113-77L0%0.0
11-19Western Kentucky (180.6)CUSAA0-018%-11.0
11-23Presbyterian (343.3)BSthN0-076%8.6
12-1Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBH0-025%-8.3
12-3Idaho (171.6)BSkyH0-032%-5.5
12-18Tulane (133.8)AmerA0-010%-15.4
12-23Seattle (251.9)WACA0-025%-8.2
12-28Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndH0-074%7.6
12-30Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndH0-069%5.9
1-3Stephen F. Austin (161.5)SlndA0-014%-13.0
1-6Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndA0-034%-5.1
1-10McNeese St. (331.7)SlndH0-075%8.3
1-13Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-062%3.6
1-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndH0-047%-0.9
1-24Lamar (153.4)SlndA0-018%-10.9
1-27Southeastern Louisiana (248.9)SlndH0-051%0.4
2-3New Orleans (237.1)SlndA0-031%-6.0
2-7Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndA0-040%-3.1
2-10Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndH0-053%0.9
2-14Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndH0-046%-1.3
2-17Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndA0-042%-2.4
2-21McNeese St. (331.7)SlndA0-057%2.3
2-24New Orleans (237.1)SlndH0-050%0.0
2-28Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndA0-055%1.6
3-3Southeastern Louisiana (248.9)SlndA0-032%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd32.2926.3670.0045.6812.92-2.28
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.004.830.0043.050.00-0.67
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.790.0022.270.00-2.66
New OrleansSlnd0.004.760.0041.410.00-0.82
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.740.0021.840.00-2.67
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.690.0034.710.00-1.44
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.660.0037.540.00-1.16
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.122.900.0045.70-3.12-0.25
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.860.0046.890.00-0.18
LamarSlnd0.002.84100.0064.920.000.85
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.83100.0068.710.001.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.830.0029.570.00-1.16
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.830.0035.930.00-0.80
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.1450.0058.560.000.37
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC25.002.0766.6736.608.33-0.56
TulaneAmer0.001.99100.0052.900.000.12
SeattleWAC0.001.9933.3349.190.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.001.9650.0060.090.000.40
VillanovaBE25.001.96100.0082.3525.001.27
Western KentuckyCUSA0.001.960.0043.670.00-0.25
PresbyterianBSth0.001.920.0015.700.00-1.32
HoustonAmer0.000.2566.6753.670.000.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.2533.3346.880.00-0.02
Texas St.SB3.120.2533.3346.09-1.04-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.25100.0076.260.000.13
Little RockSB0.000.240.0037.050.00-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.210.0042.670.00-0.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1833.3336.410.00-0.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.1833.3345.780.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.180.0026.150.00-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1850.0060.430.000.04
TulsaAmer0.000.1750.0048.690.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.1450.0036.640.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1433.3338.350.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.000.14100.0078.750.000.08
BaylorB120.000.14100.0061.110.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.14100.0054.590.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.1450.0050.670.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.007.670.00-0.12
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.14100.0075.130.000.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1450.0069.320.000.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1475.0064.570.000.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.140.0032.770.00-0.05
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1333.3336.610.00-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1250.0034.730.00-0.04
MississippiSEC0.000.11100.0053.790.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.110.0033.930.00-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.110.0051.690.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1133.3347.670.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.1133.3351.560.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1166.6742.170.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.110.0051.410.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.110.0017.060.00-0.07
Virginia TechACC0.000.1175.0061.940.000.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1133.3342.010.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1175.0071.560.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.11100.0063.590.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0059.540.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.10100.0071.560.000.05
CharlotteCUSA0.000.100.0045.640.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.10100.0061.780.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.1066.6740.170.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.100.0034.040.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.10100.0056.600.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.100.0037.120.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.080.0049.250.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.08100.0060.070.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.0833.3334.560.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0850.0062.630.000.02
TexasB120.000.08100.0063.830.000.02
UtahP120.000.08100.0067.160.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.07100.0046.080.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0766.6746.830.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.070.0024.440.00-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0733.3338.880.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0766.6765.630.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.07100.0048.130.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0733.3327.100.00-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.000.070.0028.170.00-0.03
Washington St.P120.000.07100.0041.780.00-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.07100.0086.180.000.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.070.0043.690.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0733.3347.540.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3360.630.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0733.3349.220.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0750.0077.820.000.04
RadfordBSth0.000.0750.0046.150.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0733.3348.640.00-0.00
TroySB0.000.0733.3346.410.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.070.0064.600.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0766.6749.990.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.070.0055.380.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3353.300.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0066.010.000.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0766.6749.100.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0766.6768.320.000.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0018.970.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.07100.0073.730.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0775.0072.950.000.03
SamfordSC0.000.0733.3347.970.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.000.07100.0059.760.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0750.0065.140.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0775.0052.360.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.07100.0067.460.000.02
DePaulBE0.000.0733.3331.290.00-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.07100.0058.070.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0750.0050.870.000.00
XavierBE0.000.07100.0078.990.000.04
Seton HallBE0.000.07100.0067.950.000.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.07100.0056.360.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3334.490.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6728.760.00-0.03
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.040.0048.610.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.04100.0080.230.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.04100.0053.240.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.04100.0047.670.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0450.0060.130.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0433.3350.350.000.00
NevadaMWC0.000.04100.0078.910.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.040.0042.340.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.04100.0059.250.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0466.6757.400.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0466.6766.020.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0433.3353.190.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.04100.0044.740.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.040.0028.720.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0466.6748.040.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.04100.0054.960.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.040.0029.290.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.040.0018.400.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.04100.0064.470.000.01
IowaB100.000.04100.0058.250.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.040.0031.380.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.04100.0051.080.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0466.6757.890.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0466.6748.280.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.04100.0054.680.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0433.3353.520.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.040.0029.710.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0466.6753.390.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.04100.0088.360.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.040.0025.140.00-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.000.04100.0048.350.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.000.04100.0062.630.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0433.3331.840.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.040.0056.560.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.040.0039.010.00-0.01
VMISC0.000.0433.3327.450.00-0.02
WashingtonP120.000.0450.0046.810.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0366.6763.230.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0366.6766.970.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.120.030.0035.45-3.12-0.01
ColumbiaIvy4.170.0333.3350.35-1.390.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0375.0056.120.000.00
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
LafayettePat4.170.030.0021.97-4.17-0.02
PennIvy0.000.0333.3349.350.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0366.6759.540.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0325.0045.730.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0044.630.00-0.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02