Nicholls St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	298.0
Current RPI:	298
Expected SOS:	283
Current SOS:	283
Current Record:	8-20
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Conf Record:	6-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-9
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	303
Expected OOC SOS:	265

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	298.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Louisiana St. (84.0)	SEC	A	96-74	L	0%
11-15	Tulane (250.0)	CUSA	A	96-50	L	0%
11-18	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	N	63-73	L	0%
11-19	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	N	70-80	W	100%
11-20	Louisiana Lafayette (185.0)	SB	A	84-57	L	0%
11-25	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	A	78-57	L	0%
11-28	Louisiana Monroe (317.0)	SB	H	65-86	L	0%
12-12	Louisiana Monroe (317.0)	SB	A	70-82	W	100%
12-13	Texas (50.0)	B12	A	93-40	L	0%
12-19	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	A	99-49	L	0%
1-4	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	A	91-50	L	0%
1-7	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	A	85-55	L	0%
1-11	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	H	79-80	L	0%
1-14	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	H	65-75	L	0%
1-18	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	A	99-76	L	0%
1-21	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	A	53-55	W	100%
1-25	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	56-60	L	0%
1-28	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	A	80-56	L	0%
2-1	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	H	65-61	W	100%
2-4	Texas St. (287.0)	Slnd	H	96-75	W	100%
2-8	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	A	62-58	L	0%
2-11	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	H	72-63	W	100%
2-18	IUPUI (211.0)	Sum	H	80-84	L	0%
2-22	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	H	80-70	W	100%
2-25	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	A	75-78	W	100%
2-29	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	A	92-61	L	0%
3-3	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	H	58-68	L	0%
3-7	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	N	96-48	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nicholls St.	Slnd	26.30	26.30	30.16	30.16	-10.44	-10.44
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.50	4.50	48.15	48.15	-0.17	-0.17
Lamar	Slnd	4.49	4.49	66.67	66.67	1.50	1.50
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.42	4.42	40.74	40.74	-0.82	-0.82
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.35	4.35	33.33	33.33	-1.45	-1.45
Texas Arlington	Slnd	4.32	4.32	72.41	72.41	1.94	1.94
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.28	4.28	20.83	20.83	-2.50	-2.50
Louisiana Monroe	SB	3.76	3.76	7.69	7.69	-3.18	-3.18
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	2.56	2.56	55.56	55.56	0.28	0.28
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	2.53	2.53	51.72	51.72	0.09	0.09
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	2.53	2.53	29.63	29.63	-1.03	-1.03
Texas St.	Slnd	2.52	2.52	36.00	36.00	-0.71	-0.71
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.47	2.47	20.69	20.69	-1.45	-1.45
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.10	2.10	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.94	1.94	26.92	26.92	-0.90	-0.90
Texas	B12	1.94	1.94	59.38	59.38	0.36	0.36
Auburn	SEC	1.90	1.90	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
Louisiana St.	SEC	1.84	1.84	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
North Carolina	ACC	1.81	1.81	84.85	84.85	1.26	1.26
IUPUI	Sum	1.79	1.79	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
Tulane	CUSA	1.79	1.79	42.86	42.86	-0.26	-0.26
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.38	0.38	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.36	0.36	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.34	0.34	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.31	0.31	39.39	39.39	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.30	0.30	25.00	25.00	-0.15	-0.15
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.24	0.24	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Mississippi	SEC	0.24	0.24	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Western Kentucky	SB	0.22	0.22	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.22	0.22	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.22	0.22	70.97	70.97	0.09	0.09
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.21	0.21	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.21	0.21	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.19	0.19	6.90	6.90	-0.17	-0.17
Tulsa	CUSA	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.18	0.18	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
Kentucky	SEC	0.17	0.17	94.12	94.12	0.15	0.15
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
South Carolina	SEC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Missouri	B12	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	30.77	30.77	-0.05	-0.05
Campbell	BSth	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.13	0.13	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Tennessee	SEC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.10	0.10	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	74.29	74.29	0.04	0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	11.11	11.11	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	83.87	83.87	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	19.23	19.23	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	WAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01