live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:324.7
Current RPI:317
Expected SOS:287
Current SOS:237
Current Record:5-18
Expected Record:6-19
Current Conf Record:5-11
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-8
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC RPI:311
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-18309.415.56%
6-19326.970.81%
5-20331.313.63%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17North Texas (209.4)CUSAA71-57L0%0.0
11-20UCLA (52.3)P12A107-74L0%0.0
11-24Wake Forest (116.5)ACCA75-48L0%0.0
11-29Michigan (90.2)B10A91-62L0%0.0
12-13Wisconsin (5.4)B10A86-43L0%0.0
12-18Louisiana Tech (55.0)CUSAA79-54L0%0.0
12-21Troy (308.5)SBH64-65L0%0.0
1-3Lamar (227.4)SlndA75-62L0%0.0
1-10Abilene Christian (318.2)SlndA71-54L0%0.0
1-13Houston Baptist (292.4)SlndH61-57W100%0.0
1-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (215.7)SlndH66-69L0%0.0
1-20Sam Houston St. (90.4)SlndH39-62L0%0.0
1-24Central Arkansas (348.8)SlndA61-71W100%0.0
1-26Northwestern St. (168.6)SlndA80-51L0%0.0
1-31Incarnate Word (145.4)SlndH58-69L0%0.0
2-2New Orleans (325.4)SlndH67-55W100%0.0
2-7McNeese St. (279.1)SlndH70-59W100%0.0
2-10Incarnate Word (145.4)SlndA73-64L0%0.0
2-14Southeastern Louisiana (315.2)SlndH59-65L0%0.0
2-21Stephen F. Austin (48.0)SlndA86-71L0%0.0
2-23Northwestern St. (168.6)SlndH57-79L0%0.0
2-28McNeese St. (279.1)SlndA83-78L0%0.0
3-2New Orleans (325.4)SlndA79-89W100%0.0
3-5Central Arkansas (348.8)SlndH0-084%10.0
3-7Southeastern Louisiana (315.2)SlndA0-018%-9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd26.3826.3922.7724.73-14.36-13.34
Central ArkansasSlnd3.175.007.697.62-2.69-4.24
Northwestern St.Slnd5.184.9752.3851.870.250.19
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd3.134.9725.9326.59-1.51-2.33
McNeese St.Slnd5.264.9436.3638.88-1.43-1.10
New OrleansSlnd5.154.9330.0030.49-2.06-1.93
Incarnate WordSlnd5.104.7955.0057.140.510.68
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.133.0084.0083.932.132.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.142.9752.0054.400.130.26
LamarSlnd3.182.9641.6740.75-0.53-0.55
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.032.9524.0022.88-1.58-1.60
Houston BaptistSlnd3.022.9133.3332.89-1.01-1.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.032.9175.0073.351.511.36
Louisiana TechCUSA2.312.1275.0075.781.161.09
North TexasCUSA2.252.0744.0042.34-0.27-0.32
TroySB2.212.0728.0028.52-0.97-0.89
WisconsinB102.212.0389.2987.611.741.53
MichiganB102.212.0344.4445.95-0.25-0.16
UCLAP122.172.0060.0060.000.430.40
Wake ForestACC2.172.0041.3841.21-0.37-0.35
UTEPCUSA0.250.2967.8669.260.090.11
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.310.2753.8555.450.020.03
NebraskaB100.250.2544.8344.45-0.03-0.03
OklahomaB120.210.2168.9768.870.080.08
Texas A&MSEC0.240.2068.9768.960.090.08
IndianaB100.220.1963.3362.750.060.05
RiceCUSA0.210.1832.0031.14-0.08-0.07
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1838.4639.08-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.200.1850.0048.760.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.160.1744.0045.86-0.02-0.01
UABCUSA0.190.1753.5754.420.010.01
TCUB120.190.1656.6756.090.030.02
DenverSum0.180.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.180.1560.0059.390.040.03
Texas St.SB0.170.1541.6741.69-0.03-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.170.1579.3178.180.100.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1442.8642.02-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1426.9226.01-0.06-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.1439.2939.29-0.02-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.1335.7135.71-0.02-0.04
MinnesotaB100.110.1357.1456.730.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1250.0050.330.000.00
TulsaAmer0.140.1275.0073.140.070.06
LSUSEC0.130.1270.0068.640.050.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1255.5655.060.010.01
BaylorB120.130.1272.4173.240.060.05
Texas TechB120.140.1243.3342.03-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.1246.1547.66-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.130.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.130.1146.1544.67-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1142.8645.17-0.02-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.120.1044.8346.90-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1078.5779.290.070.06
CreightonBE0.080.1043.3342.97-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1050.0050.800.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.1060.7159.690.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.1065.3865.380.020.03
IllinoisB100.120.1063.3362.470.030.03
Michigan St.B100.120.1066.6766.280.040.03
Ohio St.B100.080.1073.3372.570.040.05
RutgersB100.080.1033.3332.69-0.03-0.04
SyracuseACC0.110.1060.0059.110.020.02
IowaB100.110.1066.6767.370.040.03
OregonP120.110.1073.3373.330.050.05
Penn St.B100.110.1050.0049.040.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.070.1093.3393.330.060.09
TulaneAmer0.080.1046.4346.45-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1060.0060.240.020.02
CaliforniaP120.110.1058.6255.600.020.01
DukeACC0.110.1090.0088.620.090.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.100.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.100.0839.2940.13-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0876.0075.240.050.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0837.9338.93-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.090.0863.3363.010.020.02
HoustonAmer0.090.0837.9338.64-0.02-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0823.0823.57-0.05-0.04
Appalachian St.SB0.080.0737.0437.15-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0770.8368.830.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.080.0767.8668.280.030.03
South AlabamaSB0.040.0725.9327.35-0.02-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0778.5778.590.050.04
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0721.4321.43-0.05-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0724.1423.74-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0720.0020.58-0.05-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0740.7440.32-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0724.0024.96-0.04-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0733.3331.64-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0761.5458.930.020.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0761.5461.540.010.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.040.0748.2848.71-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0775.0075.640.040.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0725.9325.33-0.04-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0742.8643.44-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.080.0767.8668.400.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0777.4277.420.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0742.8645.04-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0789.6689.950.060.05
BucknellPat0.080.0756.6756.670.010.01
MarylandB100.080.0783.3382.790.050.04
PurdueB100.080.0763.3363.340.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0727.5928.43-0.02-0.03
UCFAmer0.040.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.040.0724.0024.00-0.02-0.03
WinthropBSth0.040.0753.8553.850.000.01
SamfordSC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.070.0646.4346.74-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.070.0670.0069.450.030.03
Oregon St.P120.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
StanfordP120.070.0664.2961.970.020.02
USCP120.070.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.070.0677.7878.830.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0696.5595.350.070.06
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0441.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0472.4172.040.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0458.6260.320.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0415.3814.76-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0469.2369.550.020.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0465.5265.870.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0466.6766.650.010.01
South DakotaSum0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.040.0451.7253.220.000.00
WoffordSC0.040.0479.3179.310.030.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.040.0435.4836.32-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.040.0423.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.040.0437.0436.25-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0458.6256.740.010.00
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0490.0090.000.030.03
RadfordBSth0.040.0464.2964.290.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0468.0066.550.020.01
Saint LouisA100.040.0434.4833.48-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0428.5728.70-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.040.0460.0060.260.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0322.2222.87-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0343.3343.33-0.01-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.040.0353.8553.590.000.00
NJITind0.040.0356.0056.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.040.0393.3393.130.030.03
AmericanPat0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.040.0334.4836.60-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.040.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.040.0344.4443.51-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.040.0368.9768.640.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0355.1754.370.000.00
Arizona St.P120.040.0351.7252.550.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0337.9338.79-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0368.9769.160.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.040.0368.9768.970.010.01
ClemsonACC0.040.0355.1753.660.000.00
FloridaSEC0.040.0350.0048.490.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz0.040.0375.0075.000.020.02
KentuckySEC0.040.03100.0099.900.040.03
LouisvilleACC0.040.0376.6775.470.020.02
MarquetteBE0.040.0337.9339.05-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0363.3363.690.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.040.0342.8642.86-0.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.040.0321.4321.45-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.040.0350.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.040.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.040.0383.3383.560.020.02
PittsburghACC0.040.0360.0059.680.010.01
RichmondA100.040.0360.0061.150.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.040.0333.3333.08-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.040.0353.5752.290.000.00
Washington St.P120.040.0342.8641.43-0.01-0.01