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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:313.0
Current RPI:313
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:282
Current Record:8-23
Expected Record:8-23
Current Conf Record:7-13
Expected Conf Record:7-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-10
Current OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC Record:1-10
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:6



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-23313.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Florida St. (82.0)ACCA109-62L0%0.0
11-22Hawaii (80.0)BWA99-74L0%0.0
11-25New Mexico (141.0)MWCA75-63L0%0.0
12-10San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA84-47L0%0.0
12-14North Texas (295.0)CUSAA78-60L0%0.0
12-16SMU (13.0)AmerA86-42L0%0.0
12-18Colorado (35.0)P12A85-68L0%0.0
12-22Hampton (155.0)MEACN81-84W100%0.0
12-23Canisius (220.0)MAACN83-74L0%0.0
12-28Houston (87.0)AmerA76-49L0%0.0
1-2Lamar (337.0)SlndH67-79L0%0.0
1-5Memphis (139.0)AmerA82-46L0%0.0
1-9Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH63-62W100%0.0
1-13Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA78-69L0%0.0
1-16Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA76-71L0%0.0
1-18Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA87-76L0%0.0
1-23Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH83-94L0%0.0
1-25Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH80-88L0%0.0
1-30Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndA68-61L0%0.0
2-1New Orleans (343.0)SlndA74-53L0%0.0
2-6McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH71-56W100%0.0
2-8Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH71-60W100%0.0
2-13Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndA69-61L0%0.0
2-20Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH53-88L0%0.0
2-22Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA81-67L0%0.0
2-27McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA71-69L0%0.0
2-29New Orleans (343.0)SlndH80-76W100%0.0
3-3Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA64-68W100%0.0
3-5Southeastern Louisiana (331.0)SlndH64-45W100%0.0
3-9McNeese St. (341.0)SlndN90-94W100%0.0
3-10Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndN60-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd26.4226.4226.4526.45-12.45-12.45
McNeese St.Slnd5.615.6126.0926.09-2.68-2.68
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.194.1931.0331.03-1.59-1.59
New OrleansSlnd4.114.1124.0024.00-2.14-2.14
Central ArkansasSlnd4.094.0923.0823.08-2.20-2.20
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.054.0548.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Northwestern St.Slnd4.044.0413.6413.64-2.94-2.94
Incarnate WordSlnd3.903.9056.5256.520.510.51
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.532.5375.8675.861.311.31
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.512.5181.4881.481.581.58
Houston BaptistSlnd2.502.5042.8642.86-0.36-0.36
LamarSlnd2.482.4824.0024.00-1.29-1.29
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.442.4434.6234.62-0.75-0.75
SMUAmer1.821.8282.7682.761.191.19
MemphisAmer1.691.6954.5554.550.150.15
HoustonAmer1.691.6970.0070.000.680.68
North TexasCUSA1.671.6731.0331.03-0.63-0.63
ColoradoP121.671.6764.5264.520.480.48
HamptonMEAC1.661.6668.9768.970.630.63
Florida St.ACC1.661.6658.0658.060.270.27
New MexicoMWC1.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
San Diego St.MWC1.661.6670.9770.970.700.70
CanisiusMAAC1.611.6140.6240.62-0.30-0.30
HawaiiBW1.611.6182.7682.761.061.06
TulaneAmer0.290.2935.2935.29-0.09-0.09
OklahomaB120.270.2778.1278.120.150.15
TulsaAmer0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
CincinnatiAmer0.210.2168.7568.750.080.08
RiceCUSA0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
CaliforniaP120.200.2069.7069.700.080.08
ConnecticutAmer0.180.1870.5970.590.070.07
Fresno St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
South FloridaAmer0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
NevadaMWC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
AuburnSEC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1487.1087.100.100.10
HowardMEAC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
TCUB120.140.1436.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
UCFAmer0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
UCLAP120.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
MassachusettsA100.120.1243.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.110.1113.3313.33-0.08-0.08
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
WyomingMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
UNLVMWC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
BaylorB120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0879.3179.310.050.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
RiderMAAC0.080.0839.3939.39-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0622.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.060.0680.6580.650.030.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0562.8662.860.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oregon St.P120.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
AmericanPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0357.6957.690.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IowaB100.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0211.1111.11-0.02-0.02