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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:321.0
Current RPI:321
Expected SOS:308
Current SOS:308
Current Record:7-19
Expected Record:7-19
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-8
Current OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC Record:0-7
Expected OOC RPI:313
Expected OOC SOS:61



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
7-19321.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-17North Texas (224.0)CUSAA71-57L0%0.0
11-20UCLA (48.0)P12A107-74L0%0.0
11-24Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA75-48L0%0.0
11-29Michigan (81.0)B10A91-62L0%0.0
12-13Wisconsin (4.0)B10A86-43L0%0.0
12-18Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA79-54L0%0.0
12-21Troy (313.0)SBH64-65L0%0.0
1-3Lamar (230.0)SlndA75-62L0%0.0
1-10Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndA71-54L0%0.0
1-13Houston Baptist (285.0)SlndH61-57W100%0.0
1-17Texas A&M Corpus Chris (209.0)SlndH66-69L0%0.0
1-20Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndH39-62L0%0.0
1-24Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA61-71W100%0.0
1-26Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndA80-51L0%0.0
1-31Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndH58-69L0%0.0
2-2New Orleans (326.0)SlndH67-55W100%0.0
2-7McNeese St. (279.0)SlndH70-59W100%0.0
2-10Incarnate Word (160.0)SlndA73-64L0%0.0
2-14Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndH59-65L0%0.0
2-21Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA86-71L0%0.0
2-23Northwestern St. (161.0)SlndH57-79L0%0.0
2-28McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA83-78L0%0.0
3-2New Orleans (326.0)SlndA79-89W100%0.0
3-5Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH77-70W100%0.0
3-7Southeastern Louisiana (329.0)SlndA69-75W100%0.0
3-11New Orleans (326.0)SlndN73-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd26.4626.4628.4528.45-11.41-11.41
New OrleansSlnd6.666.6630.4330.43-2.61-2.61
McNeese St.Slnd4.934.9340.0040.00-0.99-0.99
Northwestern St.Slnd4.924.9252.0052.000.200.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd4.884.8824.1424.14-2.52-2.52
Central ArkansasSlnd4.834.837.417.41-4.12-4.12
Incarnate WordSlnd4.614.6154.5554.550.420.42
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd3.043.0455.1755.170.310.31
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.992.9986.2186.212.172.17
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.872.8771.4371.431.231.23
LamarSlnd2.852.8540.0040.00-0.57-0.57
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.842.8422.2222.22-1.58-1.58
Houston BaptistSlnd2.802.8034.7834.78-0.85-0.85
Louisiana TechCUSA2.032.0374.1974.190.980.98
TroySB1.991.9926.9226.92-0.92-0.92
North TexasCUSA1.991.9939.2939.29-0.43-0.43
WisconsinB101.991.9990.9190.911.621.62
MichiganB101.981.9846.6746.67-0.13-0.13
UCLAP121.921.9259.3859.380.360.36
Wake ForestACC1.921.9238.7138.71-0.43-0.43
UTEPCUSA0.270.2768.7568.750.100.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
RiceCUSA0.240.2434.4834.48-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.230.2341.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.220.2264.5264.520.060.06
IndianaB100.210.2160.6160.610.040.04
OklahomaB120.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
TCUB120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
UABCUSA0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
DenverSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.160.1646.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.140.1458.6258.620.020.02
Texas St.SB0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
Southern MissCUSA0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.1235.7135.71-0.04-0.04
IllinoisB100.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
Michigan St.B100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
MinnesotaB100.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
TulsaAmer0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
LSUSEC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
CreightonBE0.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
TulaneAmer0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
SyracuseACC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Ohio St.B100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
RutgersB100.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
ArizonaP120.090.0991.1891.180.070.07
OregonP120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
DukeACC0.090.0987.8887.880.070.07
IowaB100.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
USCP120.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0759.2659.260.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0718.7518.75-0.04-0.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0622.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
IonaMAAC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0690.6290.620.050.05
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.060.0668.5768.570.020.02
ColoradoP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.040.0441.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.040.0464.7164.710.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0416.6716.67-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.040.0465.6265.620.010.01
MississippiSEC0.040.0462.5062.500.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
WoffordSC0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.030.03
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0394.1294.120.030.03
AmericanPat0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01