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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Nicholls St.

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:257.7
Current RPI:97
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:102
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-8
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:123
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-9117.00.01%
17-10125.00.03%
16-11134.80.24%
15-12154.20.87%
14-13174.92.80%
13-14196.36.27%
12-15219.011.34%
11-16239.816.92%
10-17260.319.92%
9-18279.118.87%
8-19295.312.85%
7-20309.16.46%
6-21319.02.66%
5-22327.10.67%
4-23335.60.07%
3-24337.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Boston College (233.5)ACCA73-79W100%0.0
11-14UCF (46.2)AmerA80-56L0%0.0
11-20San Diego (240.5)WCCA81-72L0%0.0
11-22New Mexico St. (120.6)WACA86-74L0%0.0
11-25Bethune Cookman (340.5)MEACN76-69W100%0.0
11-27Samford (165.0)SCA103-106W100%0.0
12-1Louisiana Lafayette (106.7)SBA101-69L0%0.0
12-8Florida St. (35.9)ACCA0-01%-28.3
12-14Texas Tech (72.4)B12A0-01%-26.3
12-31Incarnate Word (227.9)SlndH0-044%-1.7
1-2Texas A&M Corpus Chris (156.5)SlndH0-030%-6.4
1-7Sam Houston St. (166.2)SlndA0-018%-11.1
1-12Northwestern St. (259.4)SlndA0-031%-6.0
1-14Stephen F. Austin (171.3)SlndA0-016%-12.0
1-19Abilene Christian (189.3)SlndH0-037%-4.0
1-21Lamar (302.6)SlndH0-061%3.3
1-26Houston Baptist (225.5)SlndA0-027%-7.3
1-28McNeese St. (324.7)SlndH0-074%7.6
2-1Southeastern Louisiana (230.6)SlndA0-026%-7.7
2-4New Orleans (252.7)SlndA0-032%-5.8
2-11Central Arkansas (268.8)SlndA0-034%-4.8
2-16Central Arkansas (268.8)SlndH0-055%1.5
2-18Northwestern St. (259.4)SlndH0-051%0.3
2-23Incarnate Word (227.9)SlndA0-025%-8.0
2-25Southeastern Louisiana (230.6)SlndH0-045%-1.4
3-2Lamar (302.6)SlndA0-040%-3.0
3-4New Orleans (252.7)SlndH0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Nicholls St.Slnd28.3226.3261.2942.046.39-4.19
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.5612.5028.79-0.00-1.93
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.004.5542.8649.29-0.00-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.004.5340.0040.33-0.00-0.88
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.5220.0040.67-0.00-0.84
LamarSlnd0.004.4842.8639.65-0.00-0.93
Incarnate WordSlnd0.004.4725.0040.84-0.00-0.82
McNeese St.Slnd0.512.800.0017.59-0.51-1.81
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.7925.0054.24-0.000.24
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.780.0037.36-0.00-0.70
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.002.7840.0054.47-0.000.25
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.7450.0057.020.000.38
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.7360.0062.100.000.66
SamfordSC8.481.9871.4358.543.640.34
Bethune CookmanMEAC8.481.9814.2932.15-6.06-0.71
Texas TechB120.001.9687.5060.430.000.41
Louisiana LafayetteSB7.141.9666.6761.772.380.46
San DiegoWCC8.481.9528.5728.69-3.64-0.83
New Mexico St.WAC8.481.9571.4368.513.640.72
Florida St.ACC0.001.9188.8966.410.000.63
UCFAmer7.141.8883.3374.974.760.94
Boston CollegeACC7.141.8866.6730.752.38-0.72
RiceCUSA0.000.2575.0070.570.000.10
Oklahoma St.B120.000.2371.4354.010.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.2120.0022.88-0.00-0.11
UTEPCUSA0.000.2120.0035.46-0.00-0.06
TulaneAmer0.000.2012.5023.82-0.00-0.11
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.510.190.0034.54-0.51-0.06
Little RockSB0.000.1866.6761.400.000.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1716.6729.83-0.00-0.07
MemphisAmer0.000.1775.0056.270.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1771.4348.030.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1750.0037.700.00-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1785.7153.770.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.160.0022.47-0.00-0.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.1633.3331.35-0.00-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.450.1462.5058.130.110.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1425.0045.82-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.1450.0044.180.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.1325.0029.90-0.00-0.05
TexasB120.000.1350.0038.730.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1275.0066.120.000.04
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1275.0074.590.000.06
Notre DameACC0.000.12100.0076.970.000.06
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1171.4365.470.000.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.090.000.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.510.1075.0047.520.26-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1020.0038.50-0.00-0.02
USCP120.450.10100.0076.400.450.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.1042.8650.57-0.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.10100.0089.590.000.08
SeattleWAC0.510.1016.6738.83-0.34-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1012.5029.77-0.00-0.04
Colorado St.MWC0.450.1071.4360.090.190.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.1040.0058.88-0.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1057.1472.530.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.1042.8633.51-0.00-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0050.980.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0957.1433.200.00-0.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0955.5637.870.00-0.02
BaylorB120.000.09100.0076.070.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.0957.1436.370.00-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.450.0987.5082.440.330.06
TempleAmer0.000.0975.0064.820.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0971.4354.560.000.01
DukeACC0.000.0990.0080.060.000.05
Kansas St.B120.510.0988.8956.710.400.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0977.7866.740.000.03
SyracuseACC0.000.0962.5062.080.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0985.7162.500.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0977.7855.180.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0762.5052.400.000.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0762.5044.840.00-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0762.5042.780.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0787.5069.040.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0742.8629.20-0.00-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0762.5074.160.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0750.0064.910.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0720.0022.08-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.0771.4337.680.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0757.1443.930.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0742.8658.24-0.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0728.5746.79-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0725.0023.62-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0712.5033.18-0.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0755.5649.660.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0757.1457.780.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0720.0021.92-0.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.650.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.070.0017.16-0.00-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0036.38-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.510.0612.5037.11-0.38-0.02
StetsonASun0.510.0625.0026.46-0.26-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5067.080.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0687.5064.760.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.920.000.04
FurmanSC0.000.0642.8657.52-0.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0642.8643.55-0.00-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0650.0061.350.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0092.200.000.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.08-0.00-0.01
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.68-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.000.0642.8645.98-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0657.1450.730.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0633.3332.79-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.210.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.320.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0637.5047.57-0.00-0.00
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4355.570.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0662.5067.590.000.02
VMISC0.000.060.0016.56-0.00-0.04
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0628.5723.02-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.510.0688.8966.920.400.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0642.8644.90-0.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0670.0050.010.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0675.0075.180.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0655.5642.150.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.29-0.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0685.7157.280.000.01
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.830.000.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0071.330.000.03
KansasB120.000.0688.8977.470.000.03
LouisvilleACC0.000.0687.5075.690.000.03
MichiganB100.000.0677.7865.840.000.02
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.87-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.910.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0048.980.00-0.00
RichmondA100.510.0650.0048.500.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.35-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0060.950.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0688.8978.430.000.03
West VirginiaB120.000.0685.7183.250.000.04
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6735.90-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.550.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0487.5074.510.000.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0487.5082.220.000.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0477.7864.250.000.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0462.5062.120.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.040.0022.30-0.00-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0457.1450.860.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.0450.0059.840.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0442.8641.13-0.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0477.7877.640.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.450.0357.1448.110.06-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.450.030.0038.43-0.45-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.420.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.74-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0344.4453.29-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0328.5731.07-0.19-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0314.2942.77-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.000.0316.6743.53-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.450.0362.5060.090.110.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.450.0325.0030.02-0.22-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0325.0041.19-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0019.08-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.030.0026.22-0.00-0.02
St. John'sBE0.450.0344.4436.20-0.05-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0055.480.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0316.6730.09-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.56-0.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.450.0342.8639.64-0.06-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0325.0038.98-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.450.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.510.0312.5030.17-0.38-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.510.0342.8656.48-0.070.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0311.1120.27-0.35-0.02
Saint LouisA100.450.0325.0023.99-0.22-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.450.0360.0069.260.090.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.510.0350.0066.380.000.01
TroySB0.000.0342.8636.07-0.00-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.030.0033.71-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.450.03100.0086.650.450.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.510.0366.6761.690.170.01
MassachusettsA100.510.0371.4358.170.220.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0337.5028.47-0.00-0.01
PennIvy0.000.0333.3356.66-0.000.00
VillanovaBE0.510.03100.0084.740.510.02
DartmouthIvy0.510.030.0020.72-0.51-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0050.980.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0362.5055.890.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0377.7872.930.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.44-0.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0333.3349.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0357.1464.540.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0371.4347.690.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0322.2232.01-0.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0377.7859.940.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0344.4438.15-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0320.0017.37-0.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.510.0337.5043.19-0.13-0.00
TowsonCAA0.510.0342.8653.80-0.070.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.340.000.01