Nicholls St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	296.0
Current RPI:	296
Expected SOS:	296
Current SOS:	296
Current Record:	9-21
Expected Record:	9-21
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC Record:	1-10
Expected OOC RPI:	336
Expected OOC SOS:	260

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-21	296.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Nicholls St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Vanderbilt (120.0)	SEC	A	80-65	L	0%
11-16	Missouri (36.0)	SEC	A	74-54	L	0%
11-26	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	H	92-79	W	100%
12-1	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	84-39	L	0%
12-4	Tulane (175.0)	CUSA	A	65-48	L	0%
12-12	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	A	79-76	L	0%
12-20	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	79-72	L	0%
12-21	Southern Illinois (192.0)	MVC	N	53-65	L	0%
12-22	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	N	82-71	L	0%
12-29	Nebraska (104.0)	B10	A	68-59	L	0%
1-3	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	83-79	W	100%
1-5	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	63-76	L	0%
1-7	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	63-64	W	100%
1-12	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	A	70-65	L	0%
1-17	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	78-93	W	100%
1-19	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	72-49	L	0%
1-24	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	69-62	W	100%
1-26	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	70-67	W	100%
1-31	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	90-78	L	0%
2-2	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	79-76	L	0%
2-9	Southeastern Louisiana (227.0)	Slnd	H	62-73	L	0%
2-14	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	51-63	L	0%
2-16	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	79-84	L	0%
2-19	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	63-74	W	100%
2-23	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	76-58	L	0%
2-28	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	53-56	W	100%
3-2	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	68-64	L	0%
3-7	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	90-63	W	100%
3-9	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	88-91	L	0%
3-13	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	N	59-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Nicholls St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Nicholls St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Nicholls St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Nicholls St.	Slnd	26.58	26.58	32.58	32.58	-9.26	-9.26
McNeese St.	Slnd	5.98	5.98	36.00	36.00	-1.67	-1.67
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.50	4.50	48.28	48.28	-0.16	-0.16
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.47	4.47	33.33	33.33	-1.49	-1.49
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.43	4.43	84.00	84.00	3.01	3.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.43	4.43	72.00	72.00	1.95	1.95
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.38	4.38	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.37	4.37	15.38	15.38	-3.02	-3.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.37	4.37	38.46	38.46	-1.01	-1.01
Lamar	Slnd	4.33	4.33	10.34	10.34	-3.43	-3.43
New Orleans	ind	3.39	3.39	15.00	15.00	-2.37	-2.37
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.87	1.87	41.38	41.38	-0.32	-0.32
Utah St.	WAC	1.83	1.83	65.52	65.52	0.57	0.57
Texas San Antonio	WAC	1.78	1.78	29.03	29.03	-0.75	-0.75
Nebraska	B10	1.74	1.74	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
UC Davis	BW	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Michigan St.	B10	1.72	1.72	74.19	74.19	0.83	0.83
Missouri	SEC	1.69	1.69	68.75	68.75	0.63	0.63
Tulane	CUSA	1.69	1.69	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.69	1.69	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.38	0.38	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.34	0.34	80.65	80.65	0.21	0.21
San Jose St.	WAC	0.29	0.29	28.57	28.57	-0.12	-0.12
Texas A&M	SEC	0.26	0.26	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.24	0.24	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.24	0.24	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.23	0.23	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.22	0.22	76.47	76.47	0.11	0.11
Texas St.	WAC	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.21	0.21	31.25	31.25	-0.08	-0.08
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.21	0.21	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	69.70	69.70	0.07	0.07
Iowa	B10	0.16	0.16	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Purdue	B10	0.16	0.16	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Long Beach St.	BW	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.11	0.11	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Texas	SB	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida International	SB	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	14.81	14.81	-0.04	-0.04
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00