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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:123.0
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:130
Current Record:17-13
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-2
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-13123.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-21Michigan St. (23.0)B10A87-52L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (237.0)CUSAA57-71W100%0.0
11-29Kent St. (94.0)MACA61-69W100%0.0
12-3Tulane (214.0)AmerH70-83L0%0.0
12-6Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzA67-77W100%0.0
12-13Jackson St. (322.0)SWACH58-46W100%0.0
12-17Abilene Christian (324.0)SlndH83-44W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (307.0)BSkyH73-57W100%0.0
12-22Texas Tech (183.0)B12N44-62W100%0.0
12-23Boise St. (40.0)MWCN48-45W100%0.0
12-31Bradley (288.0)MVCH64-49W100%0.0
1-4Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA67-58L0%0.0
1-7Evansville (118.0)MVCA70-71W100%0.0
1-11Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH53-67L0%0.0
1-14Drake (269.0)MVCH50-47W100%0.0
1-18Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCA59-52L0%0.0
1-21Evansville (118.0)MVCH56-65L0%0.0
1-24Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA72-61L0%0.0
1-28Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA58-47L0%0.0
1-31Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH45-48L0%0.0
2-4Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA50-53W100%0.0
2-7Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH65-79L0%0.0
2-11Southern Illinois (278.0)MVCH66-62W100%0.0
2-15Bradley (288.0)MVCA53-58W100%0.0
2-18Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH39-58L0%0.0
2-21Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA67-60L0%0.0
2-25Drake (269.0)MVCA75-80W100%0.0
2-28Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH65-51W100%0.0
3-6Indiana St. (190.0)MVCN53-81W100%0.0
3-7Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCN63-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC26.5126.5156.6756.673.533.53
Northern IowaMVC6.036.0390.0090.004.824.82
Indiana St.MVC5.915.9144.4444.44-0.66-0.66
Illinois St.MVC4.494.4960.0060.000.900.90
Southern IllinoisMVC4.474.4733.3333.33-1.49-1.49
BradleyMVC4.464.4626.6726.67-2.08-2.08
Wichita St.MVC4.414.4186.2186.213.193.19
DrakeMVC4.384.3828.5728.57-1.88-1.88
Missouri St.MVC4.374.3733.3333.33-1.46-1.46
EvansvilleMVC4.354.3560.7160.710.930.93
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.801.8025.8125.81-0.87-0.87
Jackson St.SWAC1.751.7535.4835.48-0.51-0.51
Kent St.MAC1.741.7466.6766.670.580.58
Boise St.MWC1.731.7376.6776.670.920.92
Texas TechB121.721.7241.9441.94-0.28-0.28
Southern UtahBSky1.721.7233.3333.33-0.57-0.57
UTSACUSA1.701.7044.4444.44-0.19-0.19
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.691.6925.9325.93-0.82-0.82
TulaneAmer1.691.6944.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Michigan St.B101.671.6766.6766.670.560.56
MemphisAmer0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
Saint LouisA100.240.2432.2632.26-0.09-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.220.2283.3383.330.140.14
TulsaAmer0.200.2070.9770.970.080.08
IUPUISum0.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
Green BayHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
HoustonAmer0.170.1740.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1637.5037.50-0.04-0.04
NorthwesternB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Arkansas Little RockSB0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.140.1421.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Fresno St.MWC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
DePaulBE0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
IllinoisB100.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
VCUA100.130.1374.2974.290.060.06
Oral RobertsSum0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
OhioMAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
UABCUSA0.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1162.9662.960.030.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1183.3383.330.070.07
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.100.1010.3410.34-0.08-0.08
KansasB120.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Washington St.P120.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
BrownIvy0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
UMKCWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0818.7518.75-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0871.4371.430.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0857.1457.140.010.01
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0864.7164.710.020.02
WisconsinB100.080.0891.1891.180.060.06
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
George MasonA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
RichmondA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MarylandB100.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
FIUCUSA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
IPFWSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0375.8675.860.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MarquetteBE0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Penn St.B100.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
RiderMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0229.6329.63-0.01-0.01