live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:288.0
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:200
Current SOS:200
Current Record:9-22
Expected Record:9-22
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-11
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:325
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-22288.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Milwaukee (131.0)HorzH76-72W100%0.0
11-12Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA74-69L0%0.0
11-16Tulane (223.0)CUSAA65-59L0%0.0
11-22Portland St. (252.0)BSkyA67-63L0%0.0
11-23UC Davis (326.0)BWN61-64L0%0.0
11-24SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCN72-73W100%0.0
12-1Mississippi St. (245.0)SECA65-64L0%0.0
12-7UIC (315.0)HorzH73-70W100%0.0
12-13Campbell (316.0)BSthH80-68W100%0.0
12-18Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH49-55L0%0.0
12-23Fordham (226.0)A10A83-69L0%0.0
1-1Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA70-58L0%0.0
1-5Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH89-57W100%0.0
1-8Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCH67-71L0%0.0
1-11Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA59-50L0%0.0
1-15Drake (174.0)MVCH70-60W100%0.0
1-18Evansville (214.0)MVCA53-48L0%0.0
1-22Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH61-65L0%0.0
1-25Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH93-87W100%0.0
1-28Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA57-45L0%0.0
2-1Southern Illinois (200.0)MVCA81-76L0%0.0
2-6Bradley (265.0)MVCH54-63L0%0.0
2-9Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH79-69W100%0.0
2-12Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA80-58L0%0.0
2-15Drake (174.0)MVCA70-62L0%0.0
2-19Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH74-88L0%0.0
2-22Bradley (265.0)MVCA55-38L0%0.0
2-25Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA72-56L0%0.0
3-1Evansville (214.0)MVCH72-75L0%0.0
3-6Bradley (265.0)MVCN72-74W100%0.0
3-7Indiana St. (71.0)MVCN75-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC26.4826.4824.8024.80-13.35-13.35
Indiana St.MVC5.825.8264.2964.291.661.66
BradleyMVC5.755.7534.4834.48-1.78-1.78
Wichita St.MVC4.354.35100.00100.004.354.35
Southern IllinoisMVC4.324.3236.6736.67-1.15-1.15
EvansvilleMVC4.264.2634.4834.48-1.32-1.32
Missouri St.MVC4.264.2662.0762.071.031.03
DrakeMVC4.234.2346.4346.43-0.30-0.30
Northern IowaMVC4.234.2350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC4.214.2150.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz1.851.8562.5062.500.460.46
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.771.7732.1432.14-0.63-0.63
UICHorz1.721.7214.2914.29-1.23-1.23
Tennessee TechOVC1.691.6946.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Portland St.BSky1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
Northern IllinoisMAC1.641.6443.3343.33-0.22-0.22
CampbellBSth1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
FordhamA101.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Mississippi St.SEC1.611.6140.6240.62-0.30-0.30
TulaneCUSA1.611.6148.3948.39-0.05-0.05
IUPUISum0.260.2610.3410.34-0.21-0.21
BelmontOVC0.240.2471.8871.880.100.10
Saint LouisA100.230.2380.6580.650.140.14
TulsaCUSA0.230.2363.6463.640.060.06
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2150.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.210.2136.6736.67-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1932.1432.14-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.180.1859.2659.260.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Ball St.MAC0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
VCUA100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
OaklandHorz0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.150.1577.7877.780.090.09
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
OhioMAC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
PortlandWCC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.130.1336.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Miami OHMAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.130.1357.1457.140.020.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
DaytonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
George MasonA100.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1182.3582.350.070.07
Western MichiganMAC0.110.1170.9770.970.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
UMKCWAC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
MontanaBSky0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
La SalleA100.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
RadfordBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
IdahoWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.063.573.57-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MercerASun0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ColgatePat0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
StetsonASun0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0220.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01