Loyola Chicago

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	309.0
Current RPI:	309
Expected SOS:	253
Current SOS:	253
Current Record:	6-23
Expected Record:	6-23
Current Conf Record:	1-18
Expected Conf Record:	1-18
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-5
Current OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC Record:	5-5
Expected OOC RPI:	250
Expected OOC SOS:	337

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
6-23	309.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Illinois (92.0)	B10	A	67-49	L	0%
11-14	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	A	74-61	L	0%
11-16	Eastern Illinois (285.0)	OVC	A	65-61	L	0%
11-20	Furman (235.0)	SC	A	63-51	L	0%
11-26	Fordham (240.0)	A10	H	64-50	W	100%
12-1	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	A	59-41	L	0%
12-3	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	A	57-47	L	0%
12-7	DePaul (198.0)	BE	H	58-69	L	0%
12-10	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	A	55-57	W	100%
12-17	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	H	64-49	W	100%
12-22	Canisius (333.0)	MAAC	A	45-59	W	100%
12-29	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	H	48-64	L	0%
12-31	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	H	54-65	L	0%
1-5	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	A	68-64	L	0%
1-7	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	69-48	L	0%
1-14	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	A	58-51	L	0%
1-19	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	48-69	L	0%
1-21	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	57-63	L	0%
1-25	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	A	67-52	L	0%
1-27	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	A	47-41	L	0%
2-3	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	H	47-65	L	0%
2-5	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	H	63-80	L	0%
2-11	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	H	78-69	W	100%
2-14	Butler (113.0)	Horz	A	63-57	L	0%
2-18	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	A	44-56	W	100%
2-21	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	A	66-62	L	0%
2-23	Wisconsin Green Bay (148.0)	Horz	H	70-73	L	0%
2-25	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	H	69-78	L	0%
2-28	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	A	80-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola Chicago	Horz	26.44	26.44	22.22	22.22	-14.69	-14.69
Detroit	Horz	6.26	6.26	56.67	56.67	0.83	0.83
Butler	Horz	4.58	4.58	54.84	54.84	0.44	0.44
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.57	4.57	44.44	44.44	-0.51	-0.51
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.55	4.55	55.17	55.17	0.47	0.47
Valparaiso	Horz	4.54	4.54	62.07	62.07	1.10	1.10
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.51	4.51	65.52	65.52	1.40	1.40
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.51	4.51	23.08	23.08	-2.43	-2.43
Wright St.	Horz	4.46	4.46	34.48	34.48	-1.38	-1.38
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	4.46	4.46	42.31	42.31	-0.69	-0.69
Toledo	MAC	1.93	1.93	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
DePaul	BE	1.81	1.81	36.67	36.67	-0.48	-0.48
Chicago St.	GWC	1.81	1.81	11.11	11.11	-1.40	-1.40
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.79	1.79	34.62	34.62	-0.55	-0.55
Illinois	B10	1.75	1.75	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	1.72	1.72	22.58	22.58	-0.95	-0.95
Canisius	MAAC	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
Fordham	A10	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Furman	SC	1.72	1.72	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Kansas St.	B12	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.29	0.29	13.79	13.79	-0.21	-0.21
Akron	MAC	0.28	0.28	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Indiana St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.19	0.19	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.17	0.17	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
St. John's	BE	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.12	0.12	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.12	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	64.29	64.29	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.93	25.93	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
North Dakota	GWC	0.09	0.09	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.09	0.09	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	29.63	29.63	-0.04	-0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.06	0.06
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Missouri	B12	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.06	-0.06
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	6.45	6.45	-0.05	-0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.00	28.00	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	34.62	34.62	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01