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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:182.0
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:198
Current SOS:198
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:118
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14182.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alcorn St. (228.0)SWACH69-44W100%0.0
11-18Saint Joseph's (197.0)A10N71-57L0%0.0
11-19Oral Roberts (292.0)SumN53-78W100%0.0
11-21Washington St. (159.0)P12N79-88W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA79-77L0%0.0
11-30Norfolk St. (254.0)MEACH75-62W100%0.0
12-3San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH65-59W100%0.0
12-7Wright St. (115.0)HorzH77-64W100%0.0
12-10Milwaukee (256.0)HorzH72-56W100%0.0
12-17Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzA75-81W100%0.0
12-20Toledo (155.0)MACA74-70L0%0.0
12-29Drake (314.0)MVCA102-98L0%0.0
1-1Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH59-81L0%0.0
1-4Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH77-66W100%0.0
1-7Bradley (220.0)MVCA62-78W100%0.0
1-11Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA87-75L0%0.0
1-15Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH77-71W100%0.0
1-18Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA72-69L0%0.0
1-21Evansville (188.0)MVCH67-61W100%0.0
1-25Bradley (220.0)MVCH70-50W100%0.0
1-28Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA66-81W100%0.0
1-31Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA82-81L0%0.0
2-4Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCH61-67L0%0.0
2-8Evansville (188.0)MVCA60-58L0%0.0
2-12Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH64-81L0%0.0
2-15Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH64-46W100%0.0
2-19Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA65-63L0%0.0
2-22Drake (314.0)MVCH80-65W100%0.0
2-25Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCA72-70L0%0.0
3-3Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCN55-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC26.3926.3952.4652.461.301.30
Southern IllinoisMVC5.945.9444.8344.83-0.61-0.61
Illinois St.MVC4.464.4680.0080.002.672.67
EvansvilleMVC4.434.4344.8344.83-0.46-0.46
Wichita St.MVC4.414.4187.1087.103.273.27
Missouri St.MVC4.394.3950.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC4.364.3640.0040.00-0.87-0.87
Indiana St.MVC4.294.2935.7135.71-1.23-1.23
DrakeMVC4.294.2918.5218.52-2.70-2.70
Northern IowaMVC4.294.2944.4444.44-0.48-0.48
Wright St.Horz1.871.8762.0762.070.450.45
MilwaukeeHorz1.801.8030.3030.30-0.71-0.71
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.801.8043.3343.33-0.24-0.24
ToledoMAC1.781.7848.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Saint Joseph'sA101.771.7733.3333.33-0.59-0.59
Alcorn St.SWAC1.721.7253.5753.570.120.12
Norfolk St.MEAC1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
Oral RobertsSum1.721.7222.2222.22-0.95-0.95
North Carolina St.ACC1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
San Diego St.MWC1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Washington St.P121.671.6741.3841.38-0.29-0.29
ValparaisoHorz0.290.2974.1974.190.140.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
DePaulBE0.210.2128.1228.12-0.09-0.09
Murray St.OVC0.210.2145.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.210.2155.1755.170.020.02
TulsaAmer0.210.2146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.210.2123.3323.33-0.11-0.11
LouisvilleACC0.210.2175.0075.000.100.10
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.190.1973.3373.330.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.160.1667.6567.650.060.06
Ball St.MAC0.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.160.1634.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Saint LouisA100.160.1636.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1421.8821.88-0.08-0.08
Arizona St.P120.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1344.4444.44-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
South DakotaSum0.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Iowa St.B120.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
Fort WayneSum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
IUPUISum0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
MississippiSEC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
MontanaBSky0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
TCUB120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0967.8667.860.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
ButlerBE0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
UtahP120.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
WashingtonP120.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
La SalleA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
DaytonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.033.333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0396.9796.970.020.02
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00