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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:239.2
Current RPI:232
Expected SOS:205
Current SOS:193
Current Record:10-13
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:4-8
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:240
Expected OOC SOS:300



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-13180.90.21%
15-14196.82.20%
14-15211.812.42%
13-16227.628.92%
12-17245.134.39%
11-18262.918.45%
10-19280.53.40%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UTSA (341.8)CUSAH76-64W100%0.0
11-18New Mexico (95.5)MWCA75-51L0%0.0
11-21Toledo (147.0)MACH69-62W100%0.0
11-25San Diego (289.4)WCCN67-57W100%0.0
11-27Toledo (147.0)MACN74-82L0%0.0
11-28UNC Asheville (135.3)BSthN59-48L0%0.0
12-5Creighton (89.9)BEH68-65W100%0.0
12-13Notre Dame (40.1)ACCA81-61L0%0.0
12-16Cleveland St. (275.2)HorzH54-60L0%0.0
12-19Illinois Chicago (347.2)HorzH64-47W100%0.0
12-21Western Illinois (259.0)SumH72-67W100%0.0
12-30Southern Illinois (139.9)MVCH62-72L0%0.0
1-2Indiana St. (146.9)MVCA73-58L0%0.0
1-6Illinois St. (129.8)MVCA54-52L0%0.0
1-9Missouri St. (234.9)MVCH54-56L0%0.0
1-13Bradley (305.4)MVCH53-54L0%0.0
1-16Northern Iowa (114.8)MVCA41-51W100%0.0
1-19Evansville (74.1)MVCA74-66L0%0.0
1-23Drake (305.3)MVCH68-63W100%0.0
1-27Wichita St. (37.4)MVCA80-54L0%0.0
1-30Indiana St. (146.9)MVCH104-96W100%0.0
2-3Illinois St. (129.8)MVCH70-78L0%0.0
2-6Southern Illinois (139.9)MVCA59-73W100%0.0
2-10Bradley (305.4)MVCA0-073%6.8
2-14Evansville (74.1)MVCH0-025%-7.3
2-17Northern Iowa (114.8)MVCH0-033%-4.9
2-21Missouri St. (234.9)MVCA0-044%-1.6
2-24Wichita St. (37.4)MVCH0-011%-13.2
2-27Drake (305.3)MVCA0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC26.4726.4438.8339.26-5.91-5.68
Illinois St.MVC4.964.4250.0047.430.00-0.23
DrakeMVC2.964.4122.7323.54-1.62-2.34
Northern IowaMVC2.914.4156.5256.610.380.58
Southern IllinoisMVC4.914.3973.9171.932.351.92
BradleyMVC2.824.388.709.24-2.33-3.57
EvansvilleMVC2.874.3873.9175.441.372.23
Indiana St.MVC4.904.3852.3852.100.230.18
Missouri St.MVC2.864.3836.3634.76-0.78-1.33
Wichita St.MVC2.854.3871.4374.981.222.19
ToledoMAC4.403.4860.0060.790.880.75
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.471.945.267.51-2.21-1.65
Cleveland St.Horz2.381.8518.1819.98-1.52-1.11
CreightonBE2.281.7965.2261.770.700.42
Western IllinoisSum2.271.7829.4130.41-0.94-0.70
New MexicoMWC2.221.7859.0961.760.400.42
UTSACUSA2.221.7514.2914.11-1.59-1.26
Notre DameACC2.171.7268.1864.680.790.51
San DiegoWCC2.171.7233.3330.22-0.72-0.68
UNC AshevilleBSth2.171.7263.6464.910.590.51
ValparaisoHorz0.300.2481.8283.040.190.16
OaklandHorz0.330.2468.0067.970.120.08
Ball St.MAC0.240.2363.6459.240.070.04
North TexasCUSA0.310.2333.3332.99-0.10-0.08
IUPUISum0.310.2240.0039.79-0.06-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2239.1341.12-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.250.2130.4332.35-0.10-0.07
IowaB100.200.1982.6180.580.130.11
DetroitHorz0.250.1847.6245.85-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.200.1854.5556.000.020.02
Northern KentuckyHorz0.200.1833.3335.09-0.07-0.05
TulsaAmer0.190.1865.2261.450.060.04
NevadaMWC0.140.1855.0054.530.010.02
Saint LouisA100.230.1836.3633.47-0.06-0.06
Seton HallBE0.190.1773.9169.830.090.07
ButlerBE0.190.1769.5767.230.070.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1713.6415.80-0.13-0.12
Murray St.OVC0.220.1745.4549.70-0.02-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.200.1677.2776.860.110.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1559.0959.640.030.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.190.1545.4546.30-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.190.1534.7834.45-0.06-0.05
Northern IllinoisMAC0.250.1563.1658.790.070.03
BYUWCC0.090.1566.6769.500.030.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.190.1552.3847.040.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.150.1533.3335.48-0.05-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.190.1472.7372.030.090.06
San Jose St.MWC0.200.1425.0022.76-0.10-0.08
Kent St.MAC0.230.1463.6459.440.060.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.1340.9143.53-0.04-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.100.1256.5257.000.010.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.140.1223.8126.56-0.08-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.150.1256.5257.280.020.02
USCP120.150.1278.2673.060.080.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.1230.4331.18-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.1271.4369.420.080.05
PortlandWCC0.140.1240.0038.50-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.140.1250.0055.200.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.140.1240.9149.27-0.03-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.090.1245.0046.77-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.140.1252.1751.940.010.00
BuffaloMAC0.100.1159.0958.880.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1150.0051.170.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1136.8441.44-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.100.1131.8230.48-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.090.1147.3749.97-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.140.1143.4837.22-0.02-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.090.1163.6462.530.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.090.1161.9059.660.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.1175.0070.940.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.130.1145.4538.47-0.01-0.03
DenverSum0.110.1054.1751.800.010.00
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0954.5550.110.010.00
AlabamaSEC0.100.0959.0953.030.020.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.7836.50-0.03-0.02
WyomingMWC0.140.0943.4842.50-0.02-0.01
AkronMAC0.150.0981.8280.030.090.05
BelmontOVC0.090.0966.6766.540.030.03
MarylandB100.140.0987.5083.690.100.06
OhioMAC0.150.0961.9059.430.030.02
UABCUSA0.140.0982.6179.420.090.05
GeorgetownBE0.140.0954.1752.340.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.090.0982.6178.690.060.05
VirginiaACC0.090.0982.6178.050.060.05
Texas SouthernSWAC0.140.0945.4554.11-0.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0952.3850.410.000.00
Washington St.P120.090.0936.3632.00-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.060.0770.8368.570.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.0756.5256.310.020.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0763.6462.140.020.02
South DakotaSum0.060.0741.6741.24-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0628.5729.65-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0660.0060.090.010.01
DrexelCAA0.100.0613.6418.14-0.07-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.050.0678.2676.810.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0622.7324.97-0.05-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0639.1338.57-0.02-0.01
PacificWCC0.100.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0625.0026.87-0.02-0.03
RadfordBSth0.050.0650.0051.270.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0685.7185.390.070.04
UtahP120.050.0669.5767.480.020.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.440.010.02
IllinoisB100.100.0645.8344.11-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0631.5831.80-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.30-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0622.7327.19-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.090.0665.2264.220.030.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.710.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0626.0927.82-0.02-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0640.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0647.8344.37-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.98-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0633.3332.34-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0665.0069.270.010.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0660.8760.240.010.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0628.5729.72-0.04-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0638.8945.66-0.01-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0630.0035.77-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.050.0679.1778.330.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.050.0652.1755.930.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0631.8236.14-0.04-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0630.4326.50-0.04-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0621.7423.32-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.050.0634.7834.15-0.01-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0652.1751.590.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0684.2181.670.030.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0652.6350.220.000.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0673.9170.060.020.02
KentuckySEC0.090.0673.9171.550.040.02
Miami FLACC0.050.0681.8276.740.030.03
MississippiSEC0.050.0665.2259.020.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0616.6720.13-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0650.0052.350.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0627.7834.50-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.0629.1733.15-0.04-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0654.5554.490.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0682.6178.890.060.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0670.5975.550.020.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0666.6762.620.030.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0665.2259.750.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.620.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0666.6770.540.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.090.0679.1774.020.050.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0621.0523.58-0.05-0.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0662.5056.260.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0665.2268.610.030.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0645.0049.39-0.01-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0617.3920.66-0.06-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0626.0923.72-0.02-0.03
VillanovaBE0.090.0686.9686.370.070.04
XavierBE0.000.0691.3084.380.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.060.044.357.73-0.06-0.03
WisconsinB100.060.0460.8755.840.010.00
UCFAmer0.050.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0335.0032.27-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0359.0959.440.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0352.1753.310.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0345.4547.57-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.050.0355.0057.480.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0347.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0378.2678.050.030.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0340.0036.77-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0328.5731.36-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0330.0034.56-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0334.7840.92-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.170.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0356.5262.780.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.610.010.00
RiderMAAC0.050.0340.0042.11-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0315.0015.35-0.03-0.02
TexasB120.050.0369.5762.630.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0375.0071.500.020.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.51-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0333.3334.94-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.040.020.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0369.5764.890.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.0382.6177.740.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0379.1780.760.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.020.01
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0380.9582.700.030.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.560.020.01
UMass LowellAE0.050.0331.8232.67-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.660.000.00
AuburnSEC0.050.0340.9136.61-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.36-0.03-0.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.36-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0354.1751.810.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0314.2917.92-0.03-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.030.02
PurdueB100.050.0379.1776.550.030.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02