Loyola Chicago

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	223.0
Current RPI:	223
Expected SOS:	264
Current SOS:	264
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-1
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	187
Expected OOC SOS:	340

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	223.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Toledo (193.0)	MAC	H	62-50	W	100%
11-16	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	N	81-71	L	0%
11-17	South Florida (156.0)	BE	A	68-50	L	0%
11-18	Maryland Eastern Shore (345.0)	MEAC	N	62-46	W	100%
11-24	Northern Illinois (333.0)	MAC	A	46-53	W	100%
11-28	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	81-78	W	100%
12-1	Furman (343.0)	SC	H	77-50	W	100%
12-8	Michigan St. (9.0)	B10	A	73-61	L	0%
12-15	Mississippi St. (232.0)	SEC	H	59-51	W	100%
12-22	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	49-54	W	100%
12-29	DePaul (204.0)	BE	A	61-69	W	100%
1-2	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	A	54-63	W	100%
1-5	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	H	66-68	L	0%
1-9	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	58-45	L	0%
1-11	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	H	61-62	L	0%
1-16	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	A	61-59	L	0%
1-20	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	A	63-66	W	100%
1-23	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	A	55-67	W	100%
1-26	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	H	63-75	L	0%
1-30	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	H	76-65	W	100%
2-2	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	H	65-73	L	0%
2-4	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	62-59	L	0%
2-7	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	60-59	L	0%
2-12	Wisconsin Milwaukee (307.0)	Horz	A	71-53	L	0%
2-16	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	H	69-60	W	100%
2-19	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	76-85	L	0%
2-23	Kent St. (131.0)	MAC	H	63-70	L	0%
2-26	Detroit (63.0)	Horz	A	76-75	L	0%
3-2	Cleveland St. (199.0)	Horz	H	87-60	W	100%
3-5	Youngstown St. (188.0)	Horz	A	62-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola Chicago	Horz	26.38	26.38	47.89	47.89	-1.11	-1.11
Youngstown St.	Horz	5.86	5.86	42.31	42.31	-0.90	-0.90
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	4.38	4.38	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	4.35	4.35	60.00	60.00	0.87	0.87
Valparaiso	Horz	4.35	4.35	80.00	80.00	2.61	2.61
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.32	4.32	51.72	51.72	0.15	0.15
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.29	4.29	17.86	17.86	-2.76	-2.76
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.26	4.26	40.74	40.74	-0.79	-0.79
Detroit	Horz	4.23	4.23	57.14	57.14	0.60	0.60
Toledo	MAC	2.00	2.00	55.56	55.56	0.22	0.22
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.99	1.99	14.29	14.29	-1.42	-1.42
Kent St.	MAC	1.98	1.98	58.06	58.06	0.32	0.32
Western Michigan	MAC	1.87	1.87	60.00	60.00	0.37	0.37
Chicago St.	GWC	1.85	1.85	25.93	25.93	-0.89	-0.89
South Florida	BE	1.84	1.84	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
DePaul	BE	1.81	1.81	35.48	35.48	-0.52	-0.52
Tennessee Tech	OVC	1.77	1.77	38.46	38.46	-0.41	-0.41
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.72	1.72	7.41	7.41	-1.47	-1.47
Furman	SC	1.67	1.67	17.86	17.86	-1.07	-1.07
Michigan St.	B10	1.67	1.67	74.19	74.19	0.81	0.81
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.67	1.67	32.26	32.26	-0.59	-0.59
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.67	1.67	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
Bowling Green	MAC	0.44	0.44	36.67	36.67	-0.12	-0.12
Central Michigan	MAC	0.34	0.34	33.33	33.33	-0.11	-0.11
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.31	0.31	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Akron	MAC	0.28	0.28	80.65	80.65	0.17	0.17
Ball St.	MAC	0.25	0.25	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.24	0.24	26.67	26.67	-0.11	-0.11
Buffalo	MAC	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.19	0.19	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.17	0.17	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin	B10	0.16	0.16	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Marquette	BE	0.16	0.16	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Georgia	SEC	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Michigan	B10	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Cincinnati	BE	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Davidson	SC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.11	0.11	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.11	0.11	73.53	73.53	0.05	0.05
Syracuse	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Seton Hall	BE	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.09	0.09	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	28.12	28.12	-0.04	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.06	-0.06
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	42.31	42.31	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00