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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:114.6
Current RPI:92
Expected SOS:147
Current SOS:184
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:16-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-2
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:6-3
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:292



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-431.00.02%
22-534.20.22%
21-646.00.74%
20-755.62.61%
19-869.77.37%
18-983.813.31%
17-1099.219.34%
16-11116.120.43%
15-12133.117.30%
14-13151.410.41%
13-14170.55.49%
12-15189.42.07%
11-16208.00.49%
10-17225.40.15%
9-18251.20.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-21Michigan St. (27.0)B10A87-52L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (263.1)CUSAA57-71W100%0.0
11-29Kent St. (118.1)MACA61-69W100%0.0
12-3Tulane (152.3)AmerH70-83L0%0.0
12-6Illinois Chicago (306.2)HorzA67-77W100%0.0
12-13Jackson St. (284.8)SWACH58-46W100%0.0
12-17Abilene Christian (336.9)SlndH83-44W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (317.4)BSkyH0-094%18.2
12-22Texas Tech (87.7)B12N0-035%-4.4
12-31Bradley (270.6)MVCH0-087%13.1
1-4Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCA0-018%-10.6
1-7Evansville (73.9)MVCA0-025%-7.9
1-11Wichita St. (17.4)MVCH0-029%-6.5
1-14Drake (284.8)MVCH0-092%16.3
1-18Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCA0-050%0.0
1-21Evansville (73.9)MVCH0-053%0.9
1-24Indiana St. (249.9)MVCA0-064%4.3
1-28Wichita St. (17.4)MVCA0-010%-15.2
1-31Illinois St. (70.2)MVCH0-056%1.7
2-4Missouri St. (190.9)MVCA0-052%0.7
2-7Indiana St. (249.9)MVCH0-087%13.0
2-11Southern Illinois (203.5)MVCH0-077%8.8
2-15Bradley (270.6)MVCA0-064%4.3
2-18Northern Iowa (35.8)MVCH0-044%-1.9
2-21Illinois St. (70.2)MVCA0-028%-7.0
2-25Drake (284.8)MVCA0-074%7.5
2-28Missouri St. (190.9)MVCH0-079%9.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC28.0426.4472.9760.5812.885.59
Southern IllinoisMVC0.834.8060.0050.450.170.04
BradleyMVC0.004.7633.3332.65-0.00-1.65
DrakeMVC0.324.7620.0020.20-0.19-2.84
Missouri St.MVC0.004.7637.5040.65-0.00-0.89
Northern IowaMVC0.004.7490.0078.700.002.72
EvansvilleMVC0.004.7377.7871.860.002.07
Illinois St.MVC0.004.7366.6764.750.001.40
Indiana St.MVC0.004.7333.3333.46-0.00-1.56
Wichita St.MVC0.004.7287.5085.700.003.37
Illinois ChicagoHorz7.652.0120.0022.06-4.59-1.12
Jackson St.SWAC7.141.9520.0046.11-4.29-0.15
Kent St.MAC7.471.9583.3363.564.980.53
Texas TechB120.001.9288.8955.610.000.22
Southern UtahBSky0.511.8916.6728.39-0.34-0.82
UTSACUSA7.141.8950.0039.090.00-0.41
TulaneAmer7.141.8885.7153.185.100.12
Abilene ChristianSlnd7.141.8520.0020.44-4.29-1.09
Michigan St.B107.141.8570.0072.252.860.82
MemphisAmer0.000.2655.5659.990.000.05
Saint LouisA100.000.2660.0033.870.00-0.08
Murray St.OVC0.000.2555.5661.790.000.06
TulsaAmer0.600.2360.0056.800.120.03
North DakotaBSky0.000.1925.0032.77-0.00-0.07
Green BayHorz0.000.1975.0078.480.000.11
IUPUISum0.000.1920.0026.33-0.00-0.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.510.1725.0028.68-0.26-0.07
Miami OHMAC0.000.1630.0028.50-0.00-0.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1660.0037.220.00-0.04
TCUB120.000.16100.0066.180.000.05
DePaulBE0.320.1660.0034.110.06-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.510.1645.4544.07-0.05-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.320.1520.0038.24-0.19-0.04
NorthwesternB100.000.1560.0040.620.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.1344.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.1390.0067.260.000.05
Weber St.BSky0.000.1328.5742.17-0.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1344.4445.59-0.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1333.3338.99-0.00-0.03
UABCUSA0.320.1330.0037.28-0.13-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.320.1371.4363.410.140.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1344.4447.53-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1328.5736.95-0.00-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1375.0067.580.000.04
OhioMAC0.000.1342.8638.11-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1380.0069.620.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.1360.0057.600.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1322.2230.99-0.00-0.05
Iowa St.B120.000.1388.8963.800.000.03
VCUA100.000.1370.0071.420.000.05
YaleIvy0.830.1372.7367.180.380.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1233.3362.92-0.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.1272.7365.930.000.04
KansasB120.320.1288.8969.390.250.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.120.0016.85-0.00-0.08
Northern ArizonaBSky0.510.1040.0050.78-0.100.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.600.1042.8642.32-0.09-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.450.1011.1144.04-0.35-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.510.1037.5041.20-0.13-0.02
Washington St.P120.510.1040.0028.86-0.10-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.000.1042.8636.79-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.320.1072.7367.750.150.03
Southern MissCUSA0.320.1042.8627.08-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.600.1071.4348.860.26-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1088.8981.310.000.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.510.1042.8638.26-0.07-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.100.0038.46-0.00-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1066.6777.690.000.05
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1085.7170.350.000.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.100.0023.15-0.00-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.320.1062.5066.700.080.03
UCFAmer0.320.1055.5634.940.04-0.03
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1062.5054.980.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0930.0029.80-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.320.0930.0031.57-0.13-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.320.0944.4444.78-0.04-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.0910.0018.01-0.36-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.450.090.0033.84-0.45-0.03
IowaB100.000.0972.7362.590.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.090.0039.41-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0911.1144.62-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0766.6754.660.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0775.0068.680.000.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0720.0039.70-0.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0714.2933.32-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0775.0074.340.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0714.2934.12-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0725.0023.43-0.00-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0736.3664.92-0.000.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0728.5757.26-0.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0750.0041.830.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0716.6726.28-0.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0750.0074.000.000.03
UtahP120.000.0777.7879.480.000.04
UTEPCUSA0.000.0766.6772.670.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.320.0736.3644.53-0.09-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.07100.0078.050.000.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0037.73-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0720.0029.81-0.00-0.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.560.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0660.0062.970.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.0640.0033.79-0.00-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0069.120.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0072.550.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.190.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0057.510.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0014.79-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0666.6772.340.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0657.1456.900.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.28-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.410.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0630.0039.44-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0053.850.000.00
SMUAmer0.320.0670.0071.330.130.03
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0660.0059.420.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0637.5046.78-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0622.2241.92-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0655.5654.950.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0655.5650.970.000.00
BaylorB120.000.0690.0073.870.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0011.40-0.00-0.05
DenverSum0.000.0650.0054.230.000.01
George MasonA100.000.0625.0025.93-0.00-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0618.1835.99-0.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.0644.4456.91-0.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0677.7867.290.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0688.8963.660.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.060.0023.71-0.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
TexasB120.000.0690.0081.860.000.04
Virginia TechACC0.000.0655.5638.130.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0690.0066.940.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0028.26-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
IndianaB100.000.0680.0057.630.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.660.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0655.5642.550.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0031.74-0.00-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.51-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0360.0064.610.000.01
DuquesneA100.600.0328.5731.23-0.26-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8655.64-0.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6777.030.000.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0344.4451.04-0.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0350.0052.710.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0337.5049.83-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0325.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0325.0052.09-0.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0322.2228.69-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0018.94-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.510.0350.0050.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.600.0342.8643.10-0.09-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.750.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0333.3340.31-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
DaytonA100.320.0377.7870.120.180.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0337.5038.60-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.510.0336.3633.67-0.14-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.450.0350.0039.340.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0355.5656.400.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0350.0032.620.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.450.0318.1828.02-0.28-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.0387.5065.040.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.450.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.450.0350.0038.000.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0071.820.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.320.0337.5031.95-0.08-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0357.1461.670.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4436.35-0.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3327.70-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0064.110.000.01
DukeACC0.320.03100.0087.140.320.02
HofstraCAA0.320.0377.7878.540.180.02
JacksonvilleASun0.320.0310.0018.58-0.26-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.320.0342.8652.71-0.050.00
MarquetteBE0.320.0355.5647.870.04-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
NavyPat0.320.0320.0021.58-0.19-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0344.4470.08-0.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.320.0381.8264.110.210.01
Notre DameACC0.320.0390.9171.890.270.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0390.0084.680.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0390.9153.850.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
RiderMAAC0.320.0350.0052.800.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.320.0350.0040.880.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.320.0375.0065.410.160.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0316.6730.84-0.00-0.01
WisconsinB100.000.0390.9188.390.000.02