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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:161.7
Current RPI:224
Expected SOS:169
Current SOS:327
Current Record:4-2
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:4-2
Expected OOC Record:7-4
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:291



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-650.80.04%
22-763.30.26%
21-875.31.08%
20-989.52.59%
19-10104.86.10%
18-11120.911.40%
17-12138.115.81%
16-13156.318.02%
15-14175.317.61%
14-15195.212.99%
13-16215.68.01%
12-17233.63.79%
11-18250.41.78%
10-19267.20.43%
9-20284.80.06%
8-21289.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Alcorn St. (320.5)SWACH69-44W100%0.0
11-18Saint Joseph's (121.4)A10N71-57L0%0.0
11-19Oral Roberts (305.9)SumN53-78W100%0.0
11-21Washington St. (196.7)P12N79-88W100%0.0
11-26North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA79-77L0%0.0
11-30Norfolk St. (309.4)MEACH75-62W100%0.0
12-3San Diego St. (47.5)MWCH0-036%-4.2
12-7Wright St. (152.2)HorzH0-072%6.9
12-10Milwaukee (251.6)HorzH0-087%13.3
12-17Illinois Chicago (223.1)HorzA0-058%2.4
12-20Toledo (153.9)MACA0-050%0.1
12-29Drake (306.7)MVCA0-072%7.2
1-1Illinois St. (74.7)MVCH0-040%-2.9
1-4Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCH0-046%-1.2
1-7Bradley (274.4)MVCA0-069%5.9
1-11Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA0-05%-20.2
1-15Missouri St. (124.0)MVCH0-049%-0.4
1-18Northern Iowa (99.9)MVCA0-027%-7.4
1-21Evansville (205.3)MVCH0-071%6.7
1-25Bradley (274.4)MVCH0-084%12.0
1-28Indiana St. (156.7)MVCA0-038%-3.5
1-31Missouri St. (124.0)MVCA0-029%-6.5
2-4Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCH0-066%5.0
2-8Evansville (205.3)MVCA0-052%0.5
2-12Wichita St. (34.2)MVCH0-012%-14.0
2-15Indiana St. (156.7)MVCH0-059%2.7
2-19Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-022%-9.1
2-22Drake (306.7)MVCH0-087%13.3
2-25Southern Illinois (157.0)MVCA0-046%-1.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC29.4126.4166.6753.369.801.77
EvansvilleMVC1.044.5033.3340.52-0.35-0.85
Southern IllinoisMVC0.004.4450.0046.860.00-0.28
Missouri St.MVC0.004.4475.0065.260.001.35
Illinois St.MVC0.004.4250.0065.980.001.41
Wichita St.MVC0.004.4171.4385.640.003.14
BradleyMVC0.004.4150.0029.690.00-1.79
Indiana St.MVC0.004.4033.3346.47-0.00-0.31
DrakeMVC0.004.400.0021.37-0.00-2.52
Northern IowaMVC0.004.4040.0057.03-0.000.62
Wright St.Horz0.001.9371.4356.730.000.26
Saint Joseph'sA108.931.8440.0044.95-1.79-0.19
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.8433.3333.83-0.00-0.60
ToledoMAC0.691.8442.8650.38-0.100.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.001.8450.0050.590.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC8.331.780.0033.68-8.33-0.58
Norfolk St.MEAC8.331.780.0039.78-8.33-0.36
Oral RobertsSum8.331.780.0020.01-8.33-1.07
North Carolina St.ACC9.031.7566.6748.923.01-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.001.7275.0075.420.000.88
Washington St.P128.331.7260.0038.141.67-0.41
ValparaisoHorz0.000.3085.7174.430.000.14
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2714.2937.52-0.00-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.000.2142.8661.90-0.000.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.2150.0052.140.000.01
OaklandHorz0.690.2183.3378.430.460.12
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.2142.8645.30-0.00-0.02
DetroitHorz0.000.210.0019.51-0.00-0.13
Green BayHorz0.000.2133.3348.71-0.00-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.2142.8637.60-0.00-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.000.2085.7175.950.000.10
DePaulBE0.000.1880.0035.960.00-0.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1816.6730.27-0.00-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1850.0038.430.00-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.000.1750.0052.330.000.01
Colorado St.MWC1.040.1583.3361.490.690.04
Arizona St.P120.000.1557.1436.050.00-0.04
TulsaAmer0.690.1560.0039.200.14-0.03
OklahomaB120.000.1583.3351.920.000.01
George MasonA100.000.1557.1442.940.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1533.3343.64-0.00-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.150.0017.30-0.00-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1550.0043.490.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.1433.3326.75-0.00-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.130.0042.55-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.130.0024.77-0.00-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.000.1371.4358.670.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.130.0013.30-0.00-0.09
Fort WayneSum0.000.1366.6770.930.000.05
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1360.0039.610.00-0.03
IUPUISum0.000.1328.5747.72-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1257.1467.020.000.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.000.1250.0053.560.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.1257.1447.220.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.12100.0074.800.000.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1275.0054.320.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.1271.4349.590.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.1275.0070.470.000.05
TCUB120.000.12100.0059.480.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.1271.4368.970.000.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1250.0061.810.000.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.120.0027.77-0.00-0.05
USCP120.000.12100.0075.380.000.06
North CarolinaACC0.000.1285.7180.010.000.07
MontanaBSky1.980.1214.2947.44-1.42-0.01
MississippiSEC1.390.1271.4346.010.60-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1285.7173.010.000.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1014.2934.56-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0983.3363.610.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0950.0056.260.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.690.0940.0037.44-0.14-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.090.0024.19-0.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.000.0960.0048.590.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0950.0058.980.000.02
North DakotaBSky0.000.0933.3353.29-0.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.090.0022.69-0.00-0.05
ButlerBE0.690.09100.0075.690.690.05
StanfordP120.000.0975.0059.100.000.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0966.6739.720.00-0.02
CreightonBE1.290.09100.0076.651.290.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.090.0034.23-0.00-0.03
Michigan St.B100.000.0950.0061.590.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0983.3377.170.000.05
Kent St.MAC0.000.0950.0051.820.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.070.0024.25-0.00-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0728.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0716.6732.62-0.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.0725.0056.92-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0650.0050.940.000.00
San FranciscoWCC1.040.0683.3350.740.690.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0616.6731.91-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.060.0034.18-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
IowaB100.000.0642.8644.33-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0633.3348.73-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0657.1448.410.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.000.0671.4356.050.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.000.0685.7170.990.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0640.0041.65-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0671.4359.850.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0620.0041.93-0.00-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0616.6734.31-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0083.550.000.04
UtahP120.000.0675.0061.040.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.0657.1452.630.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0642.8634.17-0.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.0650.0033.010.00-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.690.0650.0062.460.000.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0683.3362.840.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0666.6756.360.000.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0055.850.000.01
FordhamA100.000.0657.1443.680.00-0.01
La SalleA100.000.0660.0051.780.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0039.35-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.770.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0683.3358.080.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0685.7165.670.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0612.5048.98-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0683.3356.560.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0650.0058.600.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.45-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0640.0040.65-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0657.1440.550.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0657.1464.940.000.02
WoffordSC0.000.060.0033.58-0.00-0.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0091.060.000.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0328.5727.50-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0333.3323.33-0.00-0.02
BaylorB120.690.03100.0074.460.690.02
BucknellPat0.690.0375.0067.660.350.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.22-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0316.6736.35-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.690.0371.4343.020.30-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0316.6727.03-0.00-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.32-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0371.4374.450.000.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.690.0342.8638.05-0.10-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.690.0357.1448.860.10-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0350.0059.670.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0383.3358.030.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0360.0067.410.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0340.0050.88-0.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0385.7155.890.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0325.0030.93-0.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0314.2931.71-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0314.2928.15-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0371.4366.730.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0328.5723.76-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0362.5043.960.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0021.30-0.00-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0337.5036.24-0.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.690.0360.0058.950.140.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0328.5728.46-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.690.0342.8642.47-0.10-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0366.6772.440.000.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0342.8636.82-0.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0337.5034.65-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0357.1444.160.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
LafayettePat0.000.0333.3331.87-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0385.7159.740.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0340.0057.97-0.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.95-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
TempleAmer0.690.0371.4363.570.300.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.690.000.00
VCUA100.000.0385.7178.150.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.03100.0083.120.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0350.0027.250.00-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0350.0053.530.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6753.460.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0387.5078.680.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0383.3362.080.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.600.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.600.0357.1442.660.09-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
RiderMAAC0.000.0350.0047.990.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.600.0316.6729.36-0.40-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0383.3370.360.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0082.550.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.920.000.01