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Through games of Feb 28, 2015.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:127.7
Current RPI:135
Expected SOS:145
Current SOS:145
Current Record:16-12
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:8-10
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Probability of Auto Bid:1.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-1
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:76
Expected OOC SOS:251



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-12127.7100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-21Michigan St. (31.4)B10A87-52L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (224.7)CUSAA57-71W100%0.0
11-29Kent St. (100.3)MACA61-69W100%0.0
12-3Tulane (197.4)AmerH70-83L0%0.0
12-6Illinois Chicago (307.2)HorzA67-77W100%0.0
12-13Jackson St. (308.2)SWACH58-46W100%0.0
12-17Abilene Christian (323.5)SlndH83-44W100%0.0
12-19Southern Utah (303.0)BSkyH73-57W100%0.0
12-22Texas Tech (176.6)B12N44-62W100%0.0
12-23Boise St. (38.2)MWCN48-45W100%0.0
12-31Bradley (296.4)MVCH64-49W100%0.0
1-4Northern Iowa (14.9)MVCA67-58L0%0.0
1-7Evansville (108.2)MVCA70-71W100%0.0
1-11Wichita St. (11.3)MVCH53-67L0%0.0
1-14Drake (247.5)MVCH50-47W100%0.0
1-18Southern Illinois (285.3)MVCA59-52L0%0.0
1-21Evansville (108.2)MVCH56-65L0%0.0
1-24Indiana St. (175.2)MVCA72-61L0%0.0
1-28Wichita St. (11.3)MVCA58-47L0%0.0
1-31Illinois St. (77.0)MVCH45-48L0%0.0
2-4Missouri St. (230.0)MVCA50-53W100%0.0
2-7Indiana St. (175.2)MVCH65-79L0%0.0
2-11Southern Illinois (285.3)MVCH66-62W100%0.0
2-15Bradley (296.4)MVCA53-58W100%0.0
2-18Northern Iowa (14.9)MVCH39-58L0%0.0
2-21Illinois St. (77.0)MVCA67-60L0%0.0
2-25Drake (247.5)MVCA75-80W100%0.0
2-28Missouri St. (230.0)MVCH65-51W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC26.4326.4157.1457.143.783.77
Southern IllinoisMVC4.624.6132.1432.14-1.65-1.65
BradleyMVC4.584.5825.0025.00-2.29-2.29
DrakeMVC4.584.5829.6329.63-1.87-1.86
Missouri St.MVC4.574.5734.6234.62-1.41-1.41
Northern IowaMVC4.554.5589.2989.293.583.58
EvansvilleMVC4.554.5562.9662.961.181.18
Illinois St.MVC4.554.5559.2659.260.840.84
Indiana St.MVC4.554.5544.4444.44-0.51-0.51
Wichita St.MVC4.554.5588.8988.893.543.54
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.941.9321.4321.43-1.11-1.11
Jackson St.SWAC1.881.8837.0439.65-0.49-0.39
Kent St.MAC1.881.8866.6765.150.630.57
Southern UtahBSky1.851.8532.0032.90-0.67-0.63
Boise St.MWC1.861.8576.9278.291.001.05
Texas TechB121.851.8544.8343.44-0.19-0.24
UTSACUSA1.821.8245.8347.60-0.15-0.09
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.821.8225.0024.39-0.91-0.93
TulaneAmer1.821.8146.1547.13-0.14-0.10
Michigan St.B101.791.7966.6764.740.600.53
MemphisAmer0.250.2458.6256.860.040.03
Murray St.OVC0.240.2485.7185.710.170.17
Saint LouisA100.240.2435.7134.56-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.230.2277.7875.090.130.11
North DakotaBSky0.190.1823.0823.78-0.10-0.10
Green BayHorz0.180.1875.0075.000.090.09
IUPUISum0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.160.1833.3334.52-0.05-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1653.8555.970.010.02
DePaulBE0.150.1540.0039.60-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1542.8642.04-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.130.1533.3335.15-0.04-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.160.1539.2939.43-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1528.5728.57-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.120.1544.4443.81-0.01-0.02
TCUB120.150.1558.6257.150.030.02
Kansas St.B120.150.1550.0048.830.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.150.1548.2847.38-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.130.1382.1481.280.080.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.130.1340.0040.16-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.130.1253.5754.380.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1240.7440.74-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1257.1455.590.020.01
Utah St.MWC0.130.1262.9661.640.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1282.1482.140.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1252.0052.010.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.130.1223.0824.73-0.07-0.06
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1273.0871.340.040.05
OhioMAC0.130.1233.3333.19-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.120.1272.4172.030.050.05
YaleIvy0.120.1270.3768.760.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.1263.6464.210.030.03
IllinoisB100.130.1262.0761.990.030.03
Iowa St.B120.120.1271.4370.550.050.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.09-0.09
KansasB120.120.1279.3177.530.070.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1053.5754.680.010.01
Washington St.P120.100.1044.4441.77-0.01-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1024.0024.53-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.8669.210.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.1068.0066.540.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.100.0975.8676.580.050.05
North TexasCUSA0.070.0946.1544.44-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.0926.9226.02-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.100.0978.5779.250.060.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0929.6331.53-0.04-0.03
UNLVMWC0.100.0953.5754.430.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.100.0928.5728.64-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0959.2659.260.020.02
UCFAmer0.100.0940.7440.63-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.100.0928.5731.48-0.04-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.100.0984.0084.130.060.06
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0959.2658.300.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.100.0942.3142.09-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.090.0948.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.060.0925.9328.17-0.03-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0975.0073.770.050.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0922.2222.67-0.05-0.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0917.2420.20-0.06-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.100.0944.4443.54-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.090.0965.5265.610.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0940.7442.95-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.0957.1459.480.010.02
RiceCUSA0.040.0732.0031.18-0.01-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0633.3334.10-0.01-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.070.0615.3816.37-0.05-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0661.9061.010.010.01
LamarSlnd0.070.0645.8344.52-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.070.0646.1547.39-0.01-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0650.0049.020.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0675.0074.360.040.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0650.0050.320.000.00
IdahoBSky0.070.0644.0044.87-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0657.6958.420.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0657.1456.290.010.01
BelmontOVC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
BrownIvy0.060.0640.7438.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.060.0672.4171.610.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0668.9768.270.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0659.2658.360.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0622.2222.90-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.060.0662.0762.630.010.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.7160.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0680.0079.590.040.04
IPFWSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0648.2848.79-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0662.9664.230.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0675.0075.360.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.060.000.17-0.03-0.06
SMUAmer0.060.0681.4880.500.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0668.9768.660.030.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0639.2940.08-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.060.0677.7878.800.030.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0654.5554.780.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0658.6258.890.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0689.2987.440.030.04
AkronMAC0.030.0660.7160.050.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.060.0667.8668.870.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.0618.5217.91-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.060.0629.6328.88-0.02-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0624.1423.71-0.03-0.03
North FloridaASun0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0658.6259.650.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
ToledoMAC0.060.0665.5264.240.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.6958.360.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0655.5655.060.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.060.0634.4834.77-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0629.1730.80-0.01-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0615.3814.81-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.030.0675.0074.800.010.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.001.27-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.030.0665.5264.550.010.02
MarylandB100.060.0682.7682.190.040.04
MichiganB100.060.0648.1549.32-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.060.0671.4370.330.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0659.2658.600.010.01
TexasB120.060.0658.6259.330.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0675.8674.170.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0344.8346.85-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.040.0340.7440.36-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0324.0025.00-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0333.3331.69-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0350.0050.770.000.00
Texas St.SB0.040.0341.6741.70-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0361.5458.970.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.037.697.76-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.040.0334.6233.89-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0362.9662.960.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0369.2369.500.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.040.0334.7838.22-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0321.4321.47-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0318.1820.76-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.040.0346.1544.71-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0330.7731.12-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.5777.410.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0340.7440.47-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0339.2939.33-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.030.0326.9225.67-0.02-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0326.9227.67-0.02-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0367.8665.680.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0342.8641.72-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.030.0353.5752.330.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0370.3768.780.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0342.3142.97-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0339.2938.92-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0389.6688.510.030.02
HofstraCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0353.8555.410.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0372.4171.340.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0340.7441.13-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.1456.730.000.00
NavyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0346.4345.01-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0376.0077.440.020.02
Notre DameACC0.030.0382.7681.280.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0371.4371.540.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0351.7249.610.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0367.8664.650.000.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0366.6767.390.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0334.4833.28-0.01-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0355.5656.780.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01