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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Loyola Chicago

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:239.0
Current RPI:239
Expected SOS:239
Current SOS:239
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-4
Current OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:265
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17239.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Chicago.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UTSA (347.0)CUSAH76-64W100%0.0
11-18New Mexico (141.0)MWCA75-51L0%0.0
11-21Toledo (182.0)MACH69-62W100%0.0
11-25San Diego (302.0)WCCN67-57W100%0.0
11-27Toledo (182.0)MACN74-82L0%0.0
11-28UNC Asheville (137.0)BSthN59-48L0%0.0
12-5Creighton (100.0)BEH68-65W100%0.0
12-13Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA81-61L0%0.0
12-16Cleveland St. (278.0)HorzH54-60L0%0.0
12-19Illinois Chicago (346.0)HorzH64-47W100%0.0
12-21Western Illinois (262.0)SumH72-67W100%0.0
12-30Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCH62-72L0%0.0
1-2Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA73-58L0%0.0
1-6Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA54-52L0%0.0
1-9Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH54-56L0%0.0
1-13Bradley (306.0)MVCH53-54L0%0.0
1-16Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA41-51W100%0.0
1-19Evansville (93.0)MVCA74-66L0%0.0
1-23Drake (325.0)MVCH68-63W100%0.0
1-27Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA80-54L0%0.0
1-30Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH104-96W100%0.0
2-3Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH70-78L0%0.0
2-6Southern Illinois (138.0)MVCA59-73W100%0.0
2-10Bradley (306.0)MVCA43-54W100%0.0
2-14Evansville (93.0)MVCH73-74L0%0.0
2-17Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH59-56W100%0.0
2-21Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA62-75W100%0.0
2-24Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH54-76L0%0.0
2-27Drake (325.0)MVCA69-59L0%0.0
3-3Bradley (306.0)MVCN74-66W100%0.0
3-4Wichita St. (47.0)MVCN66-58L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Chicago's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Loyola Chicago's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Loyola Chicago.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Loyola ChicagoMVC26.5326.5342.1842.18-4.15-4.15
Wichita St.MVC5.765.7671.4371.432.472.47
BradleyMVC5.715.7110.7110.71-4.49-4.49
Northern IowaMVC4.364.3667.7467.741.551.55
EvansvilleMVC4.314.3170.9770.971.811.81
Missouri St.MVC4.254.2537.9337.93-1.03-1.03
Indiana St.MVC4.254.2544.8344.83-0.44-0.44
Illinois St.MVC4.234.2351.7251.720.150.15
DrakeMVC4.234.2317.8617.86-2.72-2.72
Southern IllinoisMVC4.204.2070.0070.001.681.68
ToledoMAC3.253.2551.7251.720.110.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.811.8111.1111.11-1.40-1.40
Cleveland St.Horz1.721.7220.6920.69-1.01-1.01
CreightonBE1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
Western IllinoisSum1.671.6730.4330.43-0.65-0.65
New MexicoMWC1.661.6651.6151.610.050.05
UTSACUSA1.641.6413.7913.79-1.19-1.19
Notre DameACC1.611.6164.5264.520.470.47
San DiegoWCC1.611.6128.5728.57-0.69-0.69
UNC AshevilleBSth1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
Ball St.MAC0.230.2358.0658.060.040.04
Seton HallBE0.230.2375.7675.760.120.12
ValparaisoHorz0.220.2280.0080.000.130.13
OaklandHorz0.210.2165.6265.620.070.07
NevadaMWC0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
North TexasCUSA0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
IUPUISum0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Green BayHorz0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1930.0030.00-0.08-0.08
TulsaAmer0.180.1864.5264.520.050.05
Saint LouisA100.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Murray St.OVC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.150.1511.1111.11-0.12-0.12
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
DePaulBE0.130.1329.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
USCP120.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1322.2222.22-0.07-0.07
TCUB120.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Kent St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
UNLVMWC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
PortlandWCC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.100.1057.5857.580.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.100.1078.7978.790.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
ProvidenceBE0.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
DenverSum0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
ArizonaP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
DelawareCAA0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
WinthropBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IPFWSum0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
South DakotaSum0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0557.6957.690.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0582.1482.140.030.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.453.45-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
RiderMAAC0.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00