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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:102.2
Current RPI:311
Expected SOS:113
Current SOS:346
Current Record:1-0
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:1-0
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:73
Expected OOC SOS:150



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
26-417.00.01%
25-520.80.09%
24-629.00.51%
23-734.91.45%
22-843.73.45%
21-953.97.32%
20-1066.211.16%
19-1179.015.25%
18-1295.315.62%
17-13111.415.26%
16-14129.412.76%
15-15148.37.93%
14-16166.35.20%
13-17186.22.37%
12-18204.51.18%
11-19220.40.27%
10-20237.80.13%
9-21259.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Winthrop (193.8)BSthA66-81W100%0.0
11-21Louisville (28.0)ACCA0-011%-14.6
11-25Murray St. (146.9)OVCA0-043%-2.0
11-29SIU Edwardsville (287.7)OVCH0-091%16.4
12-2San Jose St. (274.9)MWCH0-087%13.4
12-6Saint Louis (146.5)A10A0-044%-1.9
12-9Southeast Missouri St. (266.3)OVCH0-087%13.4
12-13Jackson St. (279.5)SWACH0-092%17.0
12-17Lamar (153.4)SlndH0-075%8.2
12-19North Carolina A&T (286.8)MEACH0-092%17.2
12-22Nevada (20.5)MWCN0-022%-9.1
12-23Duquesne (253.1)A10N0-071%6.8
12-28Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCA0-028%-7.1
12-31Drake (218.6)MVCH0-079%9.5
1-3Evansville (147.7)MVCH0-069%5.9
1-6Valparaiso (84.9)MVCA0-035%-4.5
1-9Bradley (169.6)MVCA0-053%0.8
1-13Illinois St. (95.4)MVCH0-058%2.6
1-17Loyola Chicago (111.1)MVCA0-042%-2.6
1-21Northern Iowa (71.7)MVCH0-046%-1.1
1-24Indiana St. (175.2)MVCH0-072%6.8
1-27Missouri St. (94.9)MVCA0-034%-4.8
1-30Drake (218.6)MVCA0-062%3.5
2-3Valparaiso (84.9)MVCH0-055%1.5
2-8Illinois St. (95.4)MVCA0-039%-3.4
2-11Bradley (169.6)MVCH0-071%6.8
2-14Missouri St. (94.9)MVCH0-054%1.2
2-17Indiana St. (175.2)MVCA0-053%0.8
2-21Loyola Chicago (111.1)MVCH0-061%3.4
2-24Evansville (147.7)MVCA0-050%-0.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC37.5026.42100.0058.8537.504.68
Illinois St.MVC0.004.3433.3352.050.000.18
BradleyMVC0.004.3275.0049.560.00-0.04
ValparaisoMVC0.004.32100.0060.130.000.87
EvansvilleMVC0.004.31100.0052.760.000.24
DrakeMVC0.004.2950.0036.170.00-1.19
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.29100.0057.910.000.68
Missouri St.MVC0.004.2866.6763.800.001.18
Indiana St.MVC0.004.2833.3344.290.00-0.49
Northern IowaMVC0.004.2766.6763.250.001.13
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.930.0037.360.00-0.49
Murray St.OVC0.001.8750.0066.910.000.63
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.001.8533.3330.750.00-0.71
NevadaMWC0.001.79100.0078.950.001.03
DuquesneA100.001.78100.0048.310.00-0.06
Saint LouisA100.001.7866.6753.290.000.12
San Jose St.MWC0.001.720.0021.300.00-0.99
LamarSlnd0.001.69100.0067.210.000.58
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.001.6966.6749.780.00-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.001.670.0045.860.00-0.14
LouisvilleACC0.001.67100.0066.260.000.54
WinthropBSth50.001.670.0057.59-50.000.25
Austin PeayOVC0.000.240.0029.880.00-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2433.3341.010.00-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.210.007.670.00-0.18
Colorado St.MWC12.500.2066.6742.174.17-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.000.20100.0066.490.000.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1825.0050.070.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.180.0049.250.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.18100.0064.720.000.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.170.0028.770.00-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1750.0062.630.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1750.0050.190.000.00
WyomingMWC0.000.17100.0057.360.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1533.3345.540.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0046.410.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.150.0041.210.00-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.15100.0044.740.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1550.0050.570.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.140.0018.970.00-0.09
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.140.0035.760.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1450.0060.060.000.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.1450.0054.450.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.1266.6750.670.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.120.0037.120.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1233.3335.310.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.120.0045.040.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1250.0068.280.000.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1250.0039.640.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.1250.0046.150.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1250.0052.380.000.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1233.3336.610.00-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1233.3353.520.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0044.630.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1275.0071.560.000.05
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.12100.0064.470.000.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1250.0048.410.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.12100.0053.790.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1266.6761.500.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.11100.0066.010.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.1133.3347.970.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1150.0050.360.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.110.0042.340.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.11100.0085.360.000.08
Virginia TechACC0.000.1175.0061.940.000.03
DaytonA100.000.1166.6762.150.000.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.090.0016.000.00-0.06
CampbellBSth0.000.090.0051.410.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0950.0048.690.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.090.0026.180.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0078.160.000.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.090.0044.130.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0966.6748.040.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.090.0048.070.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0933.3341.220.00-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.090.0042.850.00-0.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0966.6767.630.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.090.0026.150.00-0.04
VCUA100.000.0966.6766.590.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.090.0021.590.00-0.05
DukeACC0.000.09100.0083.580.000.06
IUPUIHorz0.000.090.0032.200.00-0.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0825.0035.000.00-0.03
La SalleA100.000.0875.0051.210.000.00
RichmondA100.000.080.0030.280.00-0.03
FordhamA100.000.0833.3336.170.00-0.02
George MasonA100.000.0875.0048.930.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0866.6745.880.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.08100.0070.080.000.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0850.0073.230.000.04
PittsburghACC0.000.0833.3334.560.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0633.3347.670.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.060.0043.690.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.000.0633.3347.540.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.960.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0029.630.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3360.630.000.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.060.0017.060.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.060.0047.180.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.000.06100.0076.260.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.06100.0069.350.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.060.0064.600.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.06100.0071.560.000.03
XavierBE0.000.06100.0078.990.000.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0633.3350.840.000.00
Green BayHorz0.000.060.0044.830.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0650.0036.640.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0018.400.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0022.610.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.0625.0038.080.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.320.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0633.3346.330.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.0032.770.00-0.02
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.06100.0063.590.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0023.260.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0033.850.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0050.360.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
DetroitHorz0.000.060.0029.290.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.060.0048.610.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0666.6757.400.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0048.680.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.06100.0080.230.000.03
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.060.0037.050.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.06100.0071.700.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0675.0055.040.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3338.350.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0666.6774.120.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0633.3333.620.00-0.02
MassachusettsA100.000.0550.0042.160.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0566.6759.540.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.05100.0068.200.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.05100.0074.140.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0566.6756.400.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.030.0036.830.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0035.610.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0059.440.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.030.0042.810.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0043.710.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0022.920.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0023.830.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0366.6768.320.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.030.0040.830.00-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0325.0040.490.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0022.840.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0333.3334.490.00-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0058.070.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.170.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0029.620.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.03100.0062.930.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0333.3346.880.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
MercerSC0.000.0375.0076.250.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0333.3335.150.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.030.0029.710.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0088.360.000.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.03100.0052.950.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0333.3327.100.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0067.460.000.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0333.3345.780.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.000.03100.0038.710.00-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0375.0052.360.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6753.670.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0333.3350.150.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.000.030.0030.230.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.000.0333.3334.680.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.03100.0075.130.000.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.030.0036.070.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0067.950.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.030.0037.060.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3359.680.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
VMISC0.000.0333.3327.450.00-0.01
HawaiiBW0.000.03100.0053.460.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0060.380.000.01
PacificWCC0.000.030.0033.520.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.150.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.03100.0062.630.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00