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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:138.0
Current RPI:138
Expected SOS:249
Current SOS:249
Current Record:22-10
Expected Record:22-10
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:124
Expected OOC SOS:327



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-10138.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Air Force (226.0)MWCH77-75W100%0.0
11-15Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH81-51W100%0.0
11-18Kent St. (124.0)MACH72-69W100%0.0
11-21Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA81-86W100%0.0
11-24Oakland (116.0)HorzH97-88W100%0.0
11-27UTEP (215.0)CUSAN66-71L0%0.0
11-28Portland (249.0)WCCN79-80W100%0.0
12-2Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH74-50W100%0.0
12-5North Texas (295.0)CUSAA63-95W100%0.0
12-9SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCH74-76L0%0.0
12-12North Texas (295.0)CUSAH74-66W100%0.0
12-18Murray St. (169.0)OVCA73-88W100%0.0
12-21Saint Louis (206.0)A10A52-65W100%0.0
12-30Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCA62-72W100%0.0
1-2Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH75-73W100%0.0
1-6Bradley (306.0)MVCA44-65W100%0.0
1-9Wichita St. (47.0)MVCH58-83L0%0.0
1-12Illinois St. (114.0)MVCH81-78W100%0.0
1-17Drake (325.0)MVCA76-81W100%0.0
1-20Indiana St. (172.0)MVCH79-66W100%0.0
1-24Missouri St. (235.0)MVCA65-80W100%0.0
1-28Evansville (93.0)MVCH78-85L0%0.0
1-31Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCA67-58L0%0.0
2-3Wichita St. (47.0)MVCA76-55L0%0.0
2-6Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH59-73L0%0.0
2-10Indiana St. (172.0)MVCA78-85W100%0.0
2-13Drake (325.0)MVCH75-60W100%0.0
2-17Bradley (306.0)MVCH71-59W100%0.0
2-20Evansville (93.0)MVCA83-71L0%0.0
2-24Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA73-50L0%0.0
2-27Missouri St. (235.0)MVCH78-68W100%0.0
3-4Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCN66-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC26.4126.4167.5367.539.269.26
Northern IowaMVC5.645.6463.3363.331.501.50
EvansvilleMVC4.204.2070.9770.971.761.76
Wichita St.MVC4.124.1272.4172.411.851.85
Missouri St.MVC4.104.1041.3841.38-0.71-0.71
Indiana St.MVC4.094.0948.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.074.0744.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Illinois St.MVC4.054.0555.1755.170.420.42
BradleyMVC4.024.0213.7913.79-2.91-2.91
DrakeMVC4.024.0221.4321.43-2.30-2.30
North TexasCUSA3.253.2535.7135.71-0.93-0.93
Murray St.OVC1.771.7753.5753.570.130.13
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.771.7711.5411.54-1.36-1.36
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.701.7018.5218.52-1.07-1.07
Saint LouisA101.691.6935.4835.48-0.49-0.49
UTEPCUSA1.671.6754.8454.840.160.16
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.641.6453.5753.570.120.12
Florida A&MMEAC1.591.5923.0823.08-0.85-0.85
Air ForceMWC1.561.5641.3841.38-0.27-0.27
Kent St.MAC1.561.5660.0060.000.310.31
OaklandHorz1.561.5667.7467.740.550.55
PortlandWCC1.561.5636.6736.67-0.42-0.42
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.240.2439.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.200.2010.7110.71-0.16-0.16
Colorado St.MWC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.190.1958.6258.620.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.170.1753.1253.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1748.4848.48-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1643.7543.75-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1570.0070.000.060.06
Southern MissCUSA0.150.1525.9325.93-0.07-0.07
UTSACUSA0.150.1513.3313.33-0.11-0.11
TulsaAmer0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1580.0080.000.090.09
George MasonA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
BelmontOVC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
ButlerBE0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.130.1342.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.130.1362.8662.860.030.03
RiceCUSA0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
UABCUSA0.130.1380.6580.650.080.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
Ball St.MAC0.130.1358.0658.060.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1322.8622.86-0.07-0.07
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.040.04
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1282.1482.140.080.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
BYUWCC0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
North DakotaBSky0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
IUPUISum0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.100.1027.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
USCP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
DaytonA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
UC IrvineBW0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Iowa St.B120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0782.3582.350.050.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
ArizonaP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
DelawareCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Miami OHMAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0529.1729.17-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
VCUA100.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.023.453.45-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
FordhamA100.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
HartfordAE0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00