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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:200.0
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:138
Current SOS:138
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:319
Expected OOC SOS:269



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19200.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Missouri (49.0)SECA72-59L0%0.0
11-16Saint Louis (27.0)A10H67-76L0%0.0
11-19Austin Peay (305.0)OVCA72-70L0%0.0
11-25St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10N71-83L0%0.0
11-26Stetson (333.0)ASunN67-48W100%0.0
11-27San Diego (156.0)WCCN56-59L0%0.0
11-30Chicago St. (259.0)WACA88-84L0%0.0
12-7Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH60-69L0%0.0
12-17Murray St. (142.0)OVCA73-65L0%0.0
12-21Ball St. (309.0)MACH66-58W100%0.0
12-23SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCH74-57W100%0.0
12-29Miami OH (161.0)MACA67-65L0%0.0
1-2Wichita St. (4.0)MVCH67-82L0%0.0
1-5Illinois St. (134.0)MVCA66-48L0%0.0
1-8Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCA67-71W100%0.0
1-11Evansville (214.0)MVCH69-75L0%0.0
1-14Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCH68-66W100%0.0
1-17Bradley (265.0)MVCA66-60L0%0.0
1-22Drake (174.0)MVCH54-57L0%0.0
1-25Missouri St. (85.0)MVCA69-63L0%0.0
1-29Indiana St. (71.0)MVCH79-60W100%0.0
2-1Loyola Chicago (288.0)MVCH81-76W100%0.0
2-4Drake (174.0)MVCA58-74W100%0.0
2-8Missouri St. (85.0)MVCH72-54W100%0.0
2-11Wichita St. (4.0)MVCA78-67L0%0.0
2-15Indiana St. (71.0)MVCA60-57L0%0.0
2-18Bradley (265.0)MVCH75-64W100%0.0
2-22Evansville (214.0)MVCA56-61W100%0.0
2-26Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCA73-54L0%0.0
3-1Illinois St. (134.0)MVCH66-65W100%0.0
3-7Northern Iowa (109.0)MVCN58-63W100%0.0
3-8Indiana St. (71.0)MVCN62-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC26.4826.4839.8639.86-5.37-5.37
Indiana St.MVC5.705.7067.8667.862.032.03
Northern IowaMVC5.545.5451.8551.850.210.21
Wichita St.MVC4.274.27100.00100.004.274.27
EvansvilleMVC4.194.1937.9337.93-1.01-1.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.194.1931.0331.03-1.59-1.59
Missouri St.MVC4.134.1362.0762.071.001.00
BradleyMVC4.114.1136.6736.67-1.10-1.10
Illinois St.MVC4.114.1150.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC4.084.0846.4346.43-0.29-0.29
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.781.7832.1432.14-0.63-0.63
Saint LouisA101.761.7680.0080.001.061.06
Murray St.OVC1.751.7557.6957.690.270.27
Chicago St.WAC1.691.6934.4834.48-0.52-0.52
Austin PeayOVC1.671.6733.3333.33-0.56-0.56
Ball St.MAC1.661.6611.1111.11-1.29-1.29
Miami OHMAC1.641.6441.3841.38-0.28-0.28
Western KentuckySB1.641.6460.0060.000.330.33
St. BonaventureA101.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
MissouriSEC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
San DiegoWCC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
StetsonASun1.561.5623.3323.33-0.83-0.83
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.290.2932.1432.14-0.11-0.11
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.270.2753.3353.330.020.02
OhioMAC0.260.2666.6766.670.090.09
IUPUISum0.250.2510.3410.34-0.20-0.20
BelmontOVC0.230.2371.8871.880.100.10
Central MichiganMAC0.210.2127.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Tennessee St.OVC0.210.2113.7913.79-0.15-0.15
VCUA100.210.2176.4776.470.110.11
Western MichiganMAC0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
La SalleA100.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
TulsaCUSA0.170.1763.6463.640.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1720.6920.69-0.10-0.10
Tennessee TechOVC0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
DaytonA100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
UMKCWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.130.1364.2964.290.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
VirginiaACC0.130.1382.3582.350.080.08
UICHorz0.130.1313.7913.79-0.09-0.09
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.130.1346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.130.1336.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
AkronMAC0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
LipscombASun0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1073.5373.530.050.05
IonaMAAC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
IPFWSum0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
PacificWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1014.8114.81-0.07-0.07
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
ButlerBE0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0846.1546.15-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
MarylandACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
XavierBE0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
LouisvilleAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
DavidsonSC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
VermontAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0535.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0534.6234.62-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
TulaneCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
CreightonBE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
WoffordSC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
YaleIvy0.030.0351.8551.850.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CornellIvy0.020.023.703.70-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NevadaMWC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0241.1841.18-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0230.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00