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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:142.1
Current RPI:81
Expected SOS:99
Current SOS:53
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:97
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-727.00.01%
22-845.80.06%
21-952.10.24%
20-1061.70.95%
19-1175.02.48%
18-1288.76.05%
17-13104.311.74%
16-14120.817.08%
15-15137.918.53%
14-16156.316.86%
13-17174.913.04%
12-18193.67.67%
11-19212.63.45%
10-20231.61.41%
9-21248.20.29%
8-22260.60.10%
7-23282.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wright St. (167.7)HorzH81-85L0%0.0
11-14Arkansas (35.0)SECA90-65L0%0.0
11-18SIU Edwardsville (212.0)OVCA83-101W100%0.0
11-21Mount St. Mary's (174.1)NECH73-63W100%0.0
11-25Minnesota (40.0)B10A57-45L0%0.0
11-29Murray St. (138.9)OVCH89-85W100%0.0
12-3Texas Southern (105.6)SWACH74-70W100%0.0
12-7Louisville (7.5)ACCA0-03%-21.9
12-10Sam Houston St. (166.2)SlndH0-072%6.8
12-14Saint Louis (286.5)A10H0-086%13.1
12-19UNLV (195.9)MWCA0-045%-1.5
12-22Tennessee Martin (167.9)OVCH0-075%8.0
12-29Bradley (282.0)MVCA0-068%5.5
1-1Drake (308.2)MVCH0-084%11.8
1-4Indiana St. (132.3)MVCH0-051%0.4
1-7Missouri St. (147.4)MVCA0-030%-6.3
1-11Illinois St. (64.6)MVCH0-035%-4.5
1-14Evansville (186.0)MVCA0-045%-1.4
1-18Drake (308.2)MVCA0-068%5.5
1-21Northern Iowa (119.2)MVCH0-046%-1.2
1-24Wichita St. (34.3)MVCA0-04%-21.6
1-28Missouri St. (147.4)MVCH0-050%-0.1
2-1Bradley (282.0)MVCH0-084%11.8
2-4Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCA0-033%-5.4
2-8Northern Iowa (119.2)MVCA0-027%-7.5
2-11Evansville (186.0)MVCH0-066%4.8
2-15Wichita St. (34.3)MVCH0-010%-15.3
2-19Indiana St. (132.3)MVCA0-031%-5.9
2-22Illinois St. (64.6)MVCA0-019%-10.7
2-25Loyola Chicago (143.4)MVCH0-053%0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC28.0326.3855.1747.832.90-1.14
Wichita St.MVC0.004.3277.7886.180.003.13
EvansvilleMVC0.004.3250.0045.170.00-0.42
Illinois St.MVC0.454.3160.0067.400.091.50
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.2971.4358.950.000.77
BradleyMVC0.004.2737.5025.85-0.00-2.06
Indiana St.MVC0.004.2642.8650.41-0.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.004.2660.0058.800.000.75
DrakeMVC0.004.260.0019.89-0.00-2.56
Northern IowaMVC0.004.2633.3351.63-0.000.14
Murray St.OVC7.141.9357.1463.211.020.51
Tennessee MartinOVC0.001.8575.0056.560.000.24
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC7.141.8157.1444.351.02-0.20
LouisvilleACC0.001.8187.5074.990.000.90
Wright St.Horz7.141.7557.1450.351.020.01
Saint LouisA100.001.7525.0024.34-0.00-0.90
ArkansasSEC7.941.7585.7168.015.670.63
MinnesotaB107.991.7287.5065.815.990.54
Mount St. Mary'sNEC7.991.7212.5050.76-5.990.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.6950.0059.090.000.31
Texas SouthernSWAC7.141.6957.1468.591.020.63
UNLVMWC0.001.6762.5042.370.00-0.25
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.3542.8638.35-0.00-0.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.3257.1449.640.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.450.2633.3336.67-0.15-0.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2025.0040.17-0.00-0.04
George MasonA100.400.2062.5046.490.10-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1785.7175.250.000.09
TCUB120.000.17100.0060.950.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0032.29-0.00-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB1.690.1662.5067.590.420.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.1542.8645.34-0.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1550.0045.920.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1516.6738.87-0.00-0.03
Iowa St.B120.400.1475.0071.330.200.06
ToledoMAC0.450.1437.5047.57-0.11-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1442.8645.50-0.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.450.140.0013.32-0.45-0.10
MississippiSEC0.000.1475.0047.990.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1450.0050.170.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1420.0022.08-0.00-0.08
LSUSEC0.000.1471.4347.690.00-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.1225.0027.74-0.00-0.05
XavierBE0.000.1287.5070.880.000.05
UMKCWAC0.450.1255.5649.660.05-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0037.700.00-0.03
DePaulBE0.000.1271.4337.680.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.450.1237.5048.85-0.11-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.1262.5058.130.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1250.0050.980.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.1271.4348.030.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1142.8644.89-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1137.5037.96-0.00-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0036.38-0.00-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.110.0022.75-0.00-0.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1114.2943.08-0.00-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.110.0025.17-0.00-0.06
WyomingMWC0.000.1166.6753.730.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1157.1448.110.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1160.0069.260.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1142.8650.57-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1171.4360.090.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1160.0058.780.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1177.7871.770.000.05
HawaiiBW0.450.0942.8650.82-0.060.00
IUPUISum0.450.0933.3351.57-0.150.00
Fort WayneSum0.450.0962.5070.890.110.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0925.0042.78-0.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.450.0925.0055.44-0.220.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0957.1464.500.000.03
North DakotaBSky0.450.0933.3355.64-0.150.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0985.7169.920.000.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.450.0925.0040.78-0.22-0.02
DetroitHorz0.450.090.0021.30-0.45-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.450.0987.5075.730.330.04
Arizona St.P120.000.0955.5637.870.00-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0957.1443.930.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0944.4438.41-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0987.5081.910.000.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0928.5731.07-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.450.0975.0066.120.220.03
BaylorB120.000.08100.0076.070.000.04
SouthernSWAC0.000.0840.0058.88-0.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0850.0056.890.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0875.0050.980.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0857.1459.020.000.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0837.5035.03-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.450.0887.5074.510.330.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.080.0023.90-0.00-0.04
DuquesneA100.000.0840.0039.19-0.00-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0887.5082.220.000.05
Penn St.B100.450.0866.6746.170.15-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.080.0038.43-0.00-0.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0871.4354.010.000.01
La SalleA100.450.0857.1456.540.060.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0862.5052.400.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.400.0855.5646.770.04-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.81-0.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0038.78-0.00-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0642.8640.38-0.00-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0017.92-0.00-0.04
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.540.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0650.0046.820.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.000.0650.0045.660.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.450.0628.5738.92-0.19-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0657.1436.370.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.830.000.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0657.1453.860.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.000.000.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0628.5737.54-0.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.600.000.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.290.000.03
USCP120.000.06100.0076.400.000.03
Washington St.P120.000.0642.8629.20-0.00-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0637.5038.08-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.450.0642.8658.24-0.060.01
North FloridaASun0.450.0612.5034.49-0.33-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.700.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0655.5643.870.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.54-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0026.22-0.00-0.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.69-0.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0557.1451.740.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0512.5033.31-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0522.2246.51-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0528.5727.38-0.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0571.4373.270.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0590.0080.060.000.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0516.6739.99-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0577.7872.930.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.400.0588.8967.470.310.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0525.0031.76-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.840.0571.4363.080.360.01
MarylandB100.000.0587.5059.030.000.01
MichiganB100.400.0577.7865.840.220.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0562.5044.840.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.05100.0076.970.000.03
Ohio St.B100.000.0577.7862.010.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0575.0048.980.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0512.5033.18-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0577.7877.640.000.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0530.0045.49-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0544.4438.15-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0550.0040.690.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.050.0025.31-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0575.0070.350.000.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0512.5026.05-0.00-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0533.3340.37-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0562.5062.080.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0571.4365.470.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0588.8978.430.000.03
WagnerNEC0.000.0528.5752.65-0.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0577.7876.550.000.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.51-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0053.130.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0340.0041.72-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.05-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3331.35-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0320.0042.14-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.000.0383.3371.500.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0342.8650.33-0.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0360.0062.420.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0377.7864.250.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0325.0026.46-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.450.0350.0044.180.00-0.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.450.0350.0064.910.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0337.5044.42-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.450.0350.0061.350.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0357.1454.200.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.450.0337.5028.47-0.11-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0320.0022.88-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.450.0377.7870.290.250.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.280.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.760.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0370.0070.530.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5067.080.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0328.5733.56-0.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0387.5082.440.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.030.0017.16-0.00-0.02
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4362.990.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.450.0312.5037.11-0.33-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0350.0041.640.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.000.0355.5642.150.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1451.810.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.55-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.450.0375.0075.180.220.01
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.450.0312.5030.17-0.33-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8977.470.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
LehighPat0.000.0337.5061.81-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.400.0342.8645.85-0.06-0.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.170.000.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0377.7866.740.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0047.520.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.830.00-0.00
NJITASun0.400.0344.4451.58-0.040.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.63-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0311.1120.27-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0066.090.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0362.5066.500.000.01
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.800.000.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0366.6770.400.000.01
RiceCUSA0.450.0375.0070.570.220.01
RichmondA100.000.0350.0048.500.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0387.5050.250.000.00
SamfordSC0.000.0362.5056.520.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.03100.0078.180.000.02
St. John'sBE0.400.0344.4436.20-0.04-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
TexasB120.000.0350.0038.730.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.030.0031.31-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0054.190.000.00
VCUA100.000.0375.0072.930.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.500.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0377.7855.180.000.00
West VirginiaB120.400.0385.7183.250.280.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3346.06-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.340.000.01