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Through games of Feb 27, 2015.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:289.6
Current RPI:285
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:208
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:10-20
Current Conf Record:3-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.05%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20286.270.94%
9-21297.829.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Saint Louis (246.3)A10A62-59L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee St. (344.8)OVCA67-84W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (95.1)MACA74-51L0%0.0
11-22Yale (68.9)IvyN46-53L0%0.0
11-23Illinois Chicago (310.8)HorzN60-67W100%0.0
12-3SIU Edwardsville (281.0)OVCA67-79W100%0.0
12-6Austin Peay (316.0)OVCH71-49W100%0.0
12-10Southeast Missouri St. (277.2)OVCA55-54L0%0.0
12-14Chicago St. (334.5)WACH65-50W100%0.0
12-16Tennessee St. (344.8)OVCH65-58W100%0.0
12-19New Orleans (319.2)SlndH52-56L0%0.0
12-22Murray St. (65.9)OVCH71-83L0%0.0
12-31Missouri St. (229.8)MVCH50-53L0%0.0
1-3Bradley (289.9)MVCA63-44L0%0.0
1-7Northern Iowa (13.8)MVCA55-39L0%0.0
1-10Indiana St. (181.0)MVCH56-59L0%0.0
1-14Wichita St. (13.1)MVCA67-55L0%0.0
1-18Loyola Chicago (134.3)MVCH59-52W100%0.0
1-21Bradley (289.9)MVCH70-59W100%0.0
1-24Evansville (101.8)MVCA75-66L0%0.0
1-28Northern Iowa (13.8)MVCH52-59L0%0.0
1-31Missouri St. (229.8)MVCA52-46L0%0.0
2-4Drake (240.4)MVCA63-61L0%0.0
2-7Illinois St. (83.7)MVCH65-59W100%0.0
2-11Loyola Chicago (134.3)MVCA66-62L0%0.0
2-14Evansville (101.8)MVCH64-72L0%0.0
2-17Wichita St. (13.1)MVCH62-84L0%0.0
2-21Indiana St. (181.0)MVCA78-58L0%0.0
2-25Illinois St. (83.7)MVCA73-56L0%0.0
2-28Drake (240.4)MVCH0-071%5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC26.4826.4529.1329.84-11.05-10.66
BradleyMVC4.384.3122.2223.07-2.43-2.32
Indiana St.MVC4.384.3142.3142.74-0.67-0.63
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.374.3156.0056.950.520.60
DrakeMVC2.744.2825.9325.93-1.32-2.06
EvansvilleMVC4.344.2861.5460.861.000.93
Illinois St.MVC4.344.2861.5461.361.000.97
Wichita St.MVC4.354.2888.4687.853.343.24
Missouri St.MVC4.344.2828.0027.67-1.91-1.91
Northern IowaMVC4.324.2692.5990.283.683.43
Tennessee St.OVC3.583.4611.5411.34-2.75-2.67
Murray St.OVC2.142.0884.6283.931.481.41
Austin PeayOVC2.011.9723.0822.99-1.08-1.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.011.9736.0037.67-0.56-0.49
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.041.9641.6741.67-0.34-0.33
Saint LouisA101.941.8734.6234.36-0.60-0.59
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.911.8418.5219.59-1.20-1.12
Kent St.MAC1.851.7865.3863.250.570.47
YaleIvy1.791.7268.0067.650.640.61
Chicago St.WAC1.761.7016.0016.55-1.20-1.14
New OrleansSlnd1.721.6721.0527.31-1.00-0.76
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.450.4251.8551.850.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.390.3961.5460.520.090.08
BelmontOVC0.250.3062.9664.070.070.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.2461.5462.370.060.06
Jacksonville St.OVC0.250.2435.7134.86-0.07-0.07
Morehead St.OVC0.250.2442.8644.45-0.04-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.2437.0436.29-0.07-0.07
Green BayHorz0.190.2074.0774.330.090.10
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1772.0070.100.060.07
DePaulBE0.160.1741.3840.25-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.150.1734.4835.30-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.180.1760.7158.880.040.03
VCUA100.180.1775.0074.480.090.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1552.0053.140.010.01
TCUB120.160.1560.7157.540.040.02
BrownIvy0.160.1442.3140.79-0.02-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.120.1482.1482.140.080.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1444.4443.01-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1429.6330.57-0.06-0.06
PortlandWCC0.100.1251.8552.050.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1283.3383.780.090.08
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1251.8552.250.000.01
Texas TechB120.130.1241.3839.54-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.1233.3337.78-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.130.1236.0037.68-0.04-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.1262.9665.180.020.04
TulsaAmer0.130.1276.9273.050.070.05
UMKCWAC0.130.1237.0438.77-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1278.2676.740.070.06
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.130.1224.0023.95-0.07-0.06
DetroitHorz0.120.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.1142.3141.61-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1155.5654.640.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.1133.3333.99-0.03-0.04
VanderbiltSEC0.130.1155.5656.260.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.130.1124.0025.19-0.07-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.130.1140.7440.55-0.02-0.02
North DakotaBSky0.090.1124.0026.17-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.130.1133.3332.58-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.090.1126.9226.87-0.04-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1119.2322.27-0.08-0.06
Central ArkansasSlnd0.120.104.004.82-0.11-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.1030.7734.56-0.03-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0925.0024.39-0.03-0.05
IPFWSum0.100.0948.0049.57-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.0940.7440.86-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.100.0942.8642.65-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0960.0058.420.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0925.0024.65-0.05-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0951.8551.670.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.0954.1753.530.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0960.7161.250.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0951.8551.810.000.00
OaklandHorz0.090.0950.0048.920.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.090.0959.2660.580.020.02
ToledoMAC0.100.0964.2963.780.030.02
George WashingtonA100.090.0964.2963.500.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0928.5728.28-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0957.6956.860.010.01
DaytonA100.090.0877.7874.890.050.04
NorthwesternB100.090.0850.0048.140.00-0.00
RichmondA100.060.0857.1458.580.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0870.3770.390.040.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0731.8237.73-0.03-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0719.0521.40-0.03-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.040.0754.5554.770.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0746.4346.30-0.01-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0630.4332.31-0.03-0.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0667.8666.100.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0673.0873.180.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0638.4639.23-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0682.1481.330.040.04
Michigan St.B100.060.0667.8665.880.020.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0645.8346.11-0.01-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0628.0029.37-0.03-0.02
TulaneAmer0.060.0650.0049.880.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0632.0033.19-0.01-0.02
UTSACUSA0.060.0645.8346.23-0.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.060.0644.4441.78-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0659.2657.470.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0671.4370.890.030.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0650.0050.760.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0619.2320.46-0.04-0.03
CornellIvy0.070.0646.1546.98-0.01-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0644.0044.61-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0642.3141.78-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0673.9173.230.020.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.7160.790.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0680.0079.580.040.03
Iowa St.B120.030.0674.0773.060.010.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0677.7878.480.030.03
PennIvy0.030.0629.1729.03-0.01-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.070.0644.0045.65-0.01-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0643.3343.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0639.2940.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0668.9768.490.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.060.0651.8549.570.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.060.0651.8553.170.000.00
UtahP120.060.0680.7780.910.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.060.0661.5459.990.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0696.3094.650.060.05
Weber St.BSky0.060.0637.5039.20-0.02-0.01
VermontAE0.070.0659.2658.740.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0660.7160.850.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0666.6767.410.010.02
DuquesneA100.060.0636.0034.75-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.060.0664.2964.530.020.02
Kansas St.B120.060.0648.2846.44-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.95-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.060.0672.0070.730.030.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0651.7252.280.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.060.0660.0059.760.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0653.8554.220.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.060.0635.7134.80-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.040.0335.0034.28-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.040.0365.0063.560.010.01
IndianaB100.040.0365.5264.540.010.01
LamarSlnd0.040.0343.4842.11-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0378.2677.330.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.040.0370.3769.480.020.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0325.9326.73-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0352.1751.300.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0382.1478.230.020.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.9326.67-0.02-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.0015.14-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.5754.190.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0346.4344.29-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0366.6767.490.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0333.3335.14-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0334.6235.45-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0382.7681.310.020.02
SamfordSC0.030.0337.9337.78-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0332.0031.79-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0340.7441.43-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0362.0761.640.010.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0371.4370.870.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0350.0049.840.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0359.2658.310.010.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0346.4346.89-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0348.1547.54-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0355.5656.050.000.00
NJITind0.030.0354.1754.130.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0367.8667.080.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0353.5753.110.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0344.8345.59-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.030.0381.4880.510.020.02
UCFAmer0.030.0342.3142.56-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0325.0024.45-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.0075.770.020.01
FordhamA100.030.0332.0032.35-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0378.5776.450.020.01
La SalleA100.030.0353.5753.000.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0357.1456.550.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0340.7439.81-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0340.0040.28-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0344.4442.95-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0353.8555.840.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0370.3772.260.010.01