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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:278.0
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:214
Current SOS:214
Current Record:11-21
Expected Record:11-21
Current Conf Record:5-15
Expected Conf Record:5-15
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:290
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-21278.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Saint Louis (272.0)A10A62-59L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA67-84W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (94.0)MACA74-51L0%0.0
11-22Yale (64.0)IvyN46-53L0%0.0
11-23Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzN60-67W100%0.0
12-3SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCA67-79W100%0.0
12-6Austin Peay (318.0)OVCH71-49W100%0.0
12-10Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA55-54L0%0.0
12-14Chicago St. (333.0)WACH65-50W100%0.0
12-16Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH65-58W100%0.0
12-19New Orleans (326.0)SlndH52-56L0%0.0
12-22Murray St. (63.0)OVCH71-83L0%0.0
12-31Missouri St. (246.0)MVCH50-53L0%0.0
1-3Bradley (288.0)MVCA63-44L0%0.0
1-7Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCA55-39L0%0.0
1-10Indiana St. (190.0)MVCH56-59L0%0.0
1-14Wichita St. (17.0)MVCA67-55L0%0.0
1-18Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCH59-52W100%0.0
1-21Bradley (288.0)MVCH70-59W100%0.0
1-24Evansville (118.0)MVCA75-66L0%0.0
1-28Northern Iowa (14.0)MVCH52-59L0%0.0
1-31Missouri St. (246.0)MVCA52-46L0%0.0
2-4Drake (269.0)MVCA63-61L0%0.0
2-7Illinois St. (62.0)MVCH65-59W100%0.0
2-11Loyola Chicago (123.0)MVCA66-62L0%0.0
2-14Evansville (118.0)MVCH64-72L0%0.0
2-17Wichita St. (17.0)MVCH62-84L0%0.0
2-21Indiana St. (190.0)MVCA78-58L0%0.0
2-25Illinois St. (62.0)MVCA73-56L0%0.0
2-28Drake (269.0)MVCH63-57W100%0.0
3-5Missouri St. (246.0)MVCN48-55W100%0.0
3-6Wichita St. (17.0)MVCN56-45L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC26.5526.5532.1432.14-9.48-9.48
Wichita St.MVC5.635.6385.7185.714.024.02
Missouri St.MVC5.575.5726.9226.92-2.57-2.57
Illinois St.MVC4.254.2563.3363.331.131.13
Northern IowaMVC4.204.2090.3290.323.393.39
BradleyMVC4.204.2023.3323.33-2.24-2.24
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.194.1957.1457.140.600.60
Indiana St.MVC4.154.1542.8642.86-0.59-0.59
DrakeMVC4.124.1225.0025.00-2.06-2.06
EvansvilleMVC4.124.1257.1457.140.590.59
Tennessee St.OVC3.243.2411.1111.11-2.52-2.52
Murray St.OVC1.941.9482.7682.761.271.27
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.871.8737.0437.04-0.48-0.48
Austin PeayOVC1.841.8422.2222.22-1.02-1.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.831.8340.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Saint LouisA101.771.7730.0030.00-0.71-0.71
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.711.7125.8125.81-0.83-0.83
Kent St.MAC1.671.6763.3363.330.440.44
YaleIvy1.611.6165.5265.520.500.50
Chicago St.WAC1.591.5917.8617.86-1.02-1.02
New OrleansSlnd1.561.5628.0028.00-0.69-0.69
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.440.4451.7251.720.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.350.3557.1457.140.050.05
BelmontOVC0.300.3067.7467.740.110.11
Morehead St.OVC0.270.2746.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.220.2234.4834.48-0.07-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.220.2235.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.200.2073.3373.330.100.10
MemphisAmer0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.160.1653.3353.330.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
TulsaAmer0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
IUPUISum0.160.1632.2632.26-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.150.1574.2974.290.070.07
Texas TechB120.130.1340.6240.62-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
BrownIvy0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.1367.7467.740.050.05
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1383.3383.330.080.08
Wright St.Horz0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Seton HallBE0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1227.5927.59-0.06-0.06
LipscombASun0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
UMKCWAC0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1034.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.1071.4371.430.040.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Ball St.MAC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Miami OHMAC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
OaklandHorz0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0926.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.096.906.90-0.08-0.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
SeattleWAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0852.9452.940.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IPFWSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
HarvardIvy0.080.0874.0774.070.040.04
DenverSum0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UtahP120.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
North FloridaASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
DaytonA100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
RichmondA100.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
PennIvy0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SMUAmer0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
UCFAmer0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.020.0223.0823.08-0.01-0.01