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Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:138.9
Current RPI:130
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:241
Current Record:18-7
Expected Record:22-9
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-3
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:128
Expected OOC SOS:331



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-7109.52.89%
23-8121.921.48%
22-9136.240.68%
21-10151.427.15%
20-11165.87.10%
19-12178.30.68%
18-13196.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Air Force (231.9)MWCH77-75W100%0.0
11-15Florida A&M (347.3)MEACH81-51W100%0.0
11-18Kent St. (113.8)MACH72-69W100%0.0
11-21Sam Houston St. (188.8)SlndA81-86W100%0.0
11-24Oakland (111.2)HorzH97-88W100%0.0
11-27UTEP (235.6)CUSAN66-71L0%0.0
11-28Portland (240.6)WCCN79-80W100%0.0
12-2Southeast Missouri St. (332.1)OVCH74-50W100%0.0
12-5North Texas (298.9)CUSAA63-95W100%0.0
12-9SIU Edwardsville (318.8)OVCH74-76L0%0.0
12-12North Texas (298.9)CUSAH74-66W100%0.0
12-18Murray St. (186.9)OVCA73-88W100%0.0
12-21Saint Louis (201.5)A10A52-65W100%0.0
12-30Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCA62-72W100%0.0
1-2Northern Iowa (114.5)MVCH75-73W100%0.0
1-6Bradley (304.2)MVCA44-65W100%0.0
1-9Wichita St. (37.9)MVCH58-83L0%0.0
1-12Illinois St. (128.8)MVCH81-78W100%0.0
1-17Drake (303.8)MVCA76-81W100%0.0
1-20Indiana St. (146.0)MVCH79-66W100%0.0
1-24Missouri St. (236.3)MVCA65-80W100%0.0
1-28Evansville (74.7)MVCH78-85L0%0.0
1-31Northern Iowa (114.5)MVCA67-58L0%0.0
2-3Wichita St. (37.9)MVCA76-55L0%0.0
2-6Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH59-73L0%0.0
2-10Indiana St. (146.0)MVCA0-038%-3.2
2-13Drake (303.8)MVCH0-084%11.0
2-17Bradley (304.2)MVCH0-095%18.0
2-20Evansville (74.7)MVCA0-020%-9.3
2-24Illinois St. (128.8)MVCH0-067%4.8
2-27Missouri St. (236.3)MVCH0-081%9.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC26.4626.4169.2967.8410.219.42
EvansvilleMVC2.744.1773.9175.231.312.10
Northern IowaMVC4.614.1654.5555.430.420.45
Illinois St.MVC2.694.1456.5253.400.350.28
Missouri St.MVC2.644.1340.9139.83-0.48-0.84
Indiana St.MVC2.694.1354.5553.530.240.29
Wichita St.MVC4.554.1370.0074.551.822.03
BradleyMVC2.694.1113.0413.59-1.99-2.99
DrakeMVC2.644.1022.7324.84-1.44-2.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC4.514.1042.8642.08-0.64-0.65
North TexasCUSA4.183.3436.8435.47-1.10-0.97
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.171.8414.2916.39-1.55-1.24
Murray St.OVC2.171.8447.6251.61-0.100.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.141.7613.6417.72-1.55-1.14
Saint LouisA102.181.7538.1034.63-0.52-0.54
UTEPCUSA2.201.7350.0050.280.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.141.7047.3751.32-0.110.04
Florida A&MMEAC2.041.6426.3226.14-0.97-0.78
Air ForceMWC2.001.6147.6239.84-0.10-0.33
Kent St.MAC2.001.6166.6761.510.670.37
OaklandHorz2.001.6170.8370.250.830.65
PortlandWCC2.001.6141.6739.84-0.33-0.33
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.2340.9143.53-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.225.007.23-0.19-0.19
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.2047.8350.14-0.010.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.220.2035.0034.72-0.07-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.1945.4546.27-0.02-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.250.1952.3850.420.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1837.5040.54-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.220.1750.0052.350.000.01
NevadaMWC0.180.1755.0054.530.020.02
TulsaAmer0.180.1765.2261.430.050.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.1743.4850.66-0.020.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.140.1671.4368.720.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.220.1660.8763.000.050.04
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1631.5831.99-0.05-0.06
UTSACUSA0.230.1613.6413.62-0.16-0.12
ToledoMAC0.260.1659.0960.100.050.03
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1681.8283.040.080.11
BelmontOVC0.180.1466.6766.540.060.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.180.1466.6762.630.060.04
FIUCUSA0.090.1440.9145.29-0.02-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1436.8442.90-0.05-0.02
ButlerBE0.130.1469.5767.170.050.05
Bowling GreenMAC0.130.1452.3847.040.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.170.1456.5257.280.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1434.7840.93-0.00-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1456.5262.790.000.04
RiceCUSA0.230.1428.5729.68-0.10-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1420.0022.32-0.11-0.08
Ball St.MAC0.130.1463.6459.220.040.03
UABCUSA0.180.1482.6179.410.120.08
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1466.6770.550.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.1321.7422.73-0.12-0.07
Tennessee TechOVC0.180.1268.1866.690.070.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.1150.0049.770.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1172.2275.580.060.06
IowaB100.130.1182.6180.590.090.07
UNLVMWC0.140.1150.0055.190.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.180.1171.4369.420.080.04
Weber St.BSky0.130.1165.0069.270.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.170.1140.0040.30-0.03-0.02
Seton HallBE0.130.1173.9169.840.060.04
CreightonBE0.180.1162.5059.800.050.02
IUPUISum0.090.1140.0039.79-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.090.1139.1341.12-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.1145.0046.78-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.130.1143.4842.49-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1159.0959.640.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.1122.7327.19-0.02-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.090.1161.9059.630.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.130.1131.8229.13-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.130.1163.6462.530.030.03
BYUWCC0.120.1166.6769.510.040.04
George MasonA100.130.1134.7834.14-0.04-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.120.1147.3749.98-0.01-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.120.1130.4331.18-0.05-0.04
TCUB120.080.1145.8339.31-0.01-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.0931.8236.15-0.04-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0929.1733.14-0.02-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.0952.0050.240.010.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.0925.0024.35-0.07-0.05
SamfordSC0.150.0941.6742.60-0.02-0.01
USCP120.130.0978.2673.050.080.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.0918.1821.06-0.09-0.05
DaytonA100.090.0886.3682.380.070.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.0839.1338.57-0.03-0.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0865.2259.020.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.090.0827.7834.19-0.04-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.090.0872.7371.620.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.140.0850.0051.180.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.0833.3335.08-0.04-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.090.0856.5257.000.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.0865.2268.620.040.03
San Diego St.MWC0.040.0872.7372.060.020.04
Green BayHorz0.080.0854.5556.000.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0854.5554.490.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.040.0882.6178.890.030.05
Washington St.P120.130.0836.3631.98-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.0836.8441.40-0.02-0.01
VirginiaACC0.080.0882.6178.070.050.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0830.4332.36-0.05-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0625.0033.17-0.03-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0638.1037.70-0.01-0.02
HoustonAmer0.100.0669.5766.530.040.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0615.0026.98-0.07-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0621.0527.79-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0630.0029.25-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0676.1972.290.030.03
North FloridaASun0.100.0665.2267.160.030.02
AlabamaSEC0.090.0659.0953.040.020.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0623.8126.57-0.05-0.03
UtahP120.090.0669.5767.490.040.02
SMUAmer0.100.0690.9186.160.080.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0614.2915.45-0.06-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0661.9056.690.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0631.5837.72-0.03-0.01
DePaulBE0.040.0634.7834.54-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.040.0665.2264.210.010.02
IdahoBSky0.100.0654.5554.950.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0626.0927.81-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0640.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.090.0670.8367.730.040.02
Oklahoma St.B120.040.0645.8342.26-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.090.0625.0022.75-0.05-0.03
TroySB0.100.0623.8126.67-0.05-0.03
TulaneAmer0.040.0633.3332.31-0.01-0.02
UMKCWAC0.040.0628.5732.70-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0665.2266.170.030.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0627.7829.14-0.04-0.02
ColoradoP120.090.0569.5765.360.030.02
UC DavisBW0.090.0540.0036.76-0.02-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.090.0528.0030.74-0.04-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0581.8280.030.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0528.5733.37-0.02-0.02
ArizonaP120.040.0579.1778.350.020.03
ArkansasSEC0.040.0552.1755.940.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0559.0958.870.010.01
DelawareCAA0.040.0521.7423.33-0.02-0.03
DuquesneA100.090.0563.6456.440.020.01
GonzagaWCC0.040.0578.2676.800.020.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0584.2181.700.060.03
Iowa St.B120.080.0573.9170.050.040.02
KentuckySEC0.040.0573.9171.560.020.02
MarylandB100.040.0587.5083.700.030.04
Miami OHMAC0.050.0531.8230.47-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0582.6178.660.050.03
OhioMAC0.090.0561.9059.450.020.01
PacificWCC0.040.0525.0028.89-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.040.0575.0070.940.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.040.0585.7185.390.030.04
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0554.5550.100.010.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.040.0577.2776.870.020.03
St. BonaventureA100.050.0571.4368.950.020.02
TowsonCAA0.040.0565.2259.750.010.01
VCUA100.050.0573.9173.910.020.03
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0533.3335.47-0.02-0.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0547.6245.85-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.039.0912.25-0.04-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0350.0049.850.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0321.7423.39-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0319.0525.89-0.03-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0352.1754.150.000.00
CaliforniaP120.050.0365.2262.840.020.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0352.9452.160.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0347.8348.88-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.21-0.03-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.780.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.67-0.03-0.01
Texas TechB120.050.0359.0953.170.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.040.0342.8639.19-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.040.0328.5729.64-0.02-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.040.0382.6181.140.030.02
IPFWSum0.040.0370.8368.570.020.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0366.6763.440.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0354.1754.570.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0354.1751.800.000.00
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0331.8230.06-0.02-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0335.0032.27-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.27-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0350.0051.190.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
FordhamA100.000.0355.0052.260.000.00
George WashingtonA100.050.0378.2674.430.030.01
HartfordAE0.050.0325.0026.76-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0345.0046.12-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0360.8758.370.010.00
La SalleA100.000.0320.0020.45-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.36-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0379.1776.080.030.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0322.7324.79-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.35-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0354.1755.240.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0363.1658.810.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0356.5256.630.010.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0342.1145.70-0.01-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0337.5043.36-0.01-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0350.0049.450.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.040.0338.8938.50-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.040.0320.8324.10-0.02-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.040.034.357.73-0.04-0.02
Michigan St.B100.040.0383.3383.030.030.02
WashingtonP120.040.0365.2261.090.010.01