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Through games of Nov 25, 2014.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:197.4
Current RPI:183
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:184
Current Record:2-3
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:2-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:221
Expected OOC SOS:339



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-980.70.10%
20-1098.80.46%
19-11115.01.50%
18-12128.33.83%
17-13145.57.44%
16-14162.713.00%
15-15180.917.33%
14-16199.418.31%
13-17217.815.39%
12-18236.911.13%
11-19254.86.35%
10-20272.13.42%
9-21287.51.19%
8-22298.10.43%
7-23311.70.10%
6-24327.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Saint Louis (172.0)A10A62-59L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCA67-84W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (99.7)MACA74-51L0%0.0
11-22Yale (74.8)IvyN46-53L0%0.0
11-23Illinois Chicago (285.4)HorzN60-67W100%0.0
12-3SIU Edwardsville (312.3)OVCA0-062%3.7
12-6Austin Peay (300.8)OVCH0-080%9.9
12-10Southeast Missouri St. (255.2)OVCA0-047%-0.8
12-14Chicago St. (315.8)WACH0-087%13.8
12-16Tennessee St. (309.6)OVCH0-085%12.4
12-19New Orleans (281.2)SlndH0-082%10.8
12-22Murray St. (133.0)OVCH0-045%-1.5
12-31Missouri St. (140.7)MVCH0-051%0.4
1-3Bradley (253.4)MVCA0-053%0.8
1-7Northern Iowa (46.3)MVCA0-012%-13.9
1-10Indiana St. (187.0)MVCH0-062%3.8
1-14Wichita St. (16.3)MVCA0-05%-19.6
1-18Loyola Chicago (215.1)MVCH0-068%5.7
1-21Bradley (253.4)MVCH0-075%8.0
1-24Evansville (99.7)MVCA0-021%-9.5
1-28Northern Iowa (46.3)MVCH0-029%-6.7
1-31Missouri St. (140.7)MVCA0-029%-6.8
2-4Drake (254.6)MVCA0-054%1.3
2-7Illinois St. (66.2)MVCH0-033%-5.2
2-11Loyola Chicago (215.1)MVCA0-045%-1.5
2-14Evansville (99.7)MVCH0-042%-2.3
2-17Wichita St. (16.3)MVCH0-015%-12.4
2-21Indiana St. (187.0)MVCA0-039%-3.4
2-25Illinois St. (66.2)MVCA0-015%-12.4
2-28Drake (254.6)MVCH0-076%8.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC31.4226.5052.1746.801.37-1.69
Indiana St.MVC1.254.3575.0044.570.62-0.47
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.004.3450.0040.940.00-0.79
DrakeMVC0.004.3225.0026.42-0.00-2.04
Illinois St.MVC0.004.3250.0064.690.001.27
EvansvilleMVC0.004.3266.6762.500.001.08
BradleyMVC0.004.3250.0029.540.00-1.77
Missouri St.MVC0.004.3150.0051.200.000.10
Wichita St.MVC0.004.31100.0083.470.002.89
Northern IowaMVC0.004.29100.0073.580.002.02
Tennessee St.OVC10.003.460.0026.49-10.00-1.63
Murray St.OVC0.002.0933.3368.98-0.000.79
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.9825.0045.05-0.00-0.20
Austin PeayOVC0.001.970.0032.82-0.00-0.68
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.001.970.0032.68-0.00-0.68
Illinois ChicagoHorz12.501.8525.0032.53-6.25-0.64
Saint LouisA1010.001.8266.6745.543.33-0.16
Kent St.MAC12.251.7966.6763.484.080.48
YaleIvy12.251.7266.6764.374.080.50
Chicago St.WAC0.001.700.0020.25-0.00-1.01
New OrleansSlnd0.001.670.0037.39-0.00-0.42
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.430.0034.82-0.00-0.13
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.4066.6741.550.00-0.07
BelmontOVC0.000.3075.0071.930.000.13
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.24100.0060.830.000.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.2425.0031.38-0.00-0.09
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2420.0053.43-0.000.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.2466.6744.670.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.2066.6769.740.000.08
IUPUISum0.000.1840.0031.23-0.00-0.07
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.18100.0062.250.000.04
DePaulBE1.000.17100.0036.221.00-0.05
VCUA100.000.1780.0073.820.000.08
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.250.1633.3349.98-0.42-0.00
TCUB120.000.15100.0057.870.000.02
BrownIvy0.000.1520.0038.78-0.00-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1475.0055.300.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz1.250.1440.0038.29-0.25-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1225.0036.61-0.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.000.1275.0045.460.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1275.0059.380.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.12100.0053.790.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.120.0042.35-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.1250.0067.350.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1240.0067.55-0.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.12100.0050.900.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1260.0059.230.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1220.0043.52-0.00-0.02
Seton HallBE0.000.12100.0065.620.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.1220.0045.09-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1225.0046.58-0.00-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3346.41-0.00-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1250.0030.040.00-0.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.250.120.0027.32-1.25-0.05
OhioMAC0.000.1266.6752.600.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.12100.0030.140.00-0.05
VanderbiltSEC1.670.12100.0052.851.670.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1266.6756.780.000.02
George MasonA100.000.1120.0022.51-0.00-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.000.110.0044.87-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.100.0023.12-0.00-0.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0028.11-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.100.0031.74-0.00-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3326.91-0.00-0.04
DenverSum0.000.0966.6766.590.000.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.090.0067.43-0.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0966.6761.780.000.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0925.0037.50-0.00-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0966.6751.550.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.09100.0051.400.000.00
IllinoisB100.000.09100.0065.710.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0925.0040.73-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0966.6749.540.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0925.0048.23-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0940.0047.31-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0920.0026.30-0.00-0.04
OaklandHorz0.000.0920.0029.38-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.0940.0060.63-0.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0975.0071.680.000.04
RichmondA100.000.0966.6766.740.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0933.3353.25-0.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6753.920.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.070.0046.74-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.070.0031.72-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.070.0047.30-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.0775.0050.700.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0680.0058.990.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0065.600.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0675.0072.430.000.03
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0052.730.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0020.18-0.00-0.04
TulaneAmer0.000.0666.6738.430.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0666.6772.710.000.03
UTSACUSA0.000.0633.3328.79-0.00-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0032.72-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0066.91-0.000.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0620.0038.11-0.00-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.54-0.00-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0025.33-0.00-0.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0675.0073.890.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0660.0057.210.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0625.0043.52-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0042.26-0.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.0625.0045.15-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0043.100.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3367.26-0.000.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0051.970.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0666.6750.600.000.00
VirginiaACC1.670.06100.0075.611.670.03
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0066.000.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.660.000.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.000.0675.0064.500.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3336.17-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.060.0036.25-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0055.470.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0666.6774.280.000.03
IowaB100.000.0660.0064.290.000.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0675.0063.470.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.060.0039.00-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0680.0074.570.000.03
PennIvy0.000.060.0025.91-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0625.0039.42-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.06100.0060.980.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3344.17-0.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0675.0061.090.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0633.3358.10-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0650.0031.510.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0625.0054.27-0.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0025.45-0.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0053.250.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0380.0058.080.000.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0325.0037.60-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0350.0065.510.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0067.070.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0031.79-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.03100.0048.940.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0081.020.000.02
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0036.72-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0340.0040.15-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.030.0042.64-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.98-0.00-0.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0360.0054.250.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.03100.0060.560.000.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0067.050.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0366.6760.350.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0049.860.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0380.0071.450.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0325.0050.46-0.000.00
XavierBE0.000.03100.0079.400.000.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0333.3361.54-0.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0055.150.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.310.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.610.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6771.550.000.01
FordhamA100.000.030.0026.74-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6772.650.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0380.0051.980.000.00
KansasB120.000.0366.6760.800.000.01
La SalleA100.000.03100.0056.940.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.0375.0065.570.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0380.0060.610.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0047.350.00-0.00
NJITind0.000.0320.0028.08-0.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0046.130.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0044.550.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.000.03100.0043.950.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.03100.0069.080.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC1.250.0350.0055.650.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0333.3333.44-0.00-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0360.0037.460.00-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0340.0066.55-0.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0052.460.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.03100.0048.890.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum1.000.0325.0025.51-0.50-0.01