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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Southern Illinois

Conference:MVC
Expected RPI:145.0
Current RPI:145
Expected SOS:103
Current SOS:103
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:150
Expected OOC SOS:79



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16145.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Wright St. (115.0)HorzH81-85L0%0.0
11-14Arkansas (28.0)SECA90-65L0%0.0
11-18SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCA83-101W100%0.0
11-21Mount St. Mary's (151.0)NECH73-63W100%0.0
11-25Minnesota (20.0)B10A57-45L0%0.0
11-29Murray St. (230.0)OVCH89-85W100%0.0
12-3Texas Southern (108.0)SWACH74-70W100%0.0
12-7Louisville (7.0)ACCA74-51L0%0.0
12-10Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndH73-79L0%0.0
12-14Saint Louis (238.0)A10H70-55W100%0.0
12-19UNLV (242.0)MWCA68-61L0%0.0
12-22Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCH78-70W100%0.0
12-29Bradley (220.0)MVCA60-51L0%0.0
1-1Drake (314.0)MVCH83-69W100%0.0
1-4Indiana St. (234.0)MVCH80-74W100%0.0
1-7Missouri St. (210.0)MVCA67-75W100%0.0
1-11Illinois St. (33.0)MVCH53-60L0%0.0
1-14Evansville (188.0)MVCA61-73W100%0.0
1-18Drake (314.0)MVCA88-84L0%0.0
1-21Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCH57-58L0%0.0
1-24Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA87-45L0%0.0
1-28Missouri St. (210.0)MVCH85-84W100%0.0
2-1Bradley (220.0)MVCH85-65W100%0.0
2-4Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCA61-67W100%0.0
2-8Northern Iowa (163.0)MVCA49-41L0%0.0
2-11Evansville (188.0)MVCH70-75L0%0.0
2-15Wichita St. (32.0)MVCH68-87L0%0.0
2-19Indiana St. (234.0)MVCA68-74W100%0.0
2-22Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA50-46L0%0.0
2-25Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCH72-70W100%0.0
3-3Loyola Chicago (182.0)MVCN55-50W100%0.0
3-4Illinois St. (33.0)MVCN63-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southern IllinoisMVC26.4626.4648.6148.61-0.74-0.74
Illinois St.MVC5.705.7079.3179.313.343.34
Loyola ChicagoMVC5.575.5759.2659.261.031.03
Wichita St.MVC4.264.2687.1087.103.163.16
EvansvilleMVC4.214.2144.8344.83-0.44-0.44
BradleyMVC4.144.1436.6736.67-1.10-1.10
Missouri St.MVC4.144.1453.3353.330.280.28
Indiana St.MVC4.084.0835.7135.71-1.17-1.17
DrakeMVC4.084.0818.5218.52-2.57-2.57
Northern IowaMVC4.084.0840.7440.74-0.76-0.76
Murray St.OVC1.841.8446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
Tennessee MartinOVC1.771.7763.3363.330.470.47
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.691.6918.5218.52-1.06-1.06
LouisvilleACC1.681.6874.1974.190.810.81
Wright St.Horz1.671.6758.6258.620.290.29
Saint LouisA101.641.6437.5037.50-0.41-0.41
ArkansasSEC1.641.6472.7372.730.740.74
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6157.5857.580.240.24
MinnesotaB101.611.6171.8871.880.700.70
Texas SouthernSWAC1.591.5969.7069.700.630.63
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
UNLVMWC1.561.5632.2632.26-0.55-0.55
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.300.3041.9441.94-0.05-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.280.2844.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.230.2332.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
TulsaAmer0.190.1946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.180.1835.4835.48-0.05-0.05
George MasonA100.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
ToledoMAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1542.8642.86-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Jacksonville St.OVC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
DePaulBE0.150.1528.1228.12-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
MississippiSEC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1329.4129.41-0.05-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.130.1321.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Ball St.MAC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.126.906.90-0.10-0.10
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
LSUSEC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.110.1161.7661.760.030.03
Green BayHorz0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Air ForceMWC0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
NevadaMWC0.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
DuquesneA100.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Fort WayneSum0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Arizona St.P120.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.050.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0832.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
Penn St.B100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.070.0777.1477.140.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0760.7160.710.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.070.0768.5768.570.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0536.0036.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
USCP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
WisconsinB100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
WagnerNEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Miami FLACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
OregonP120.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
BYUWCC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
DavidsonA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.023.333.33-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0272.7372.730.010.01
RichmondA100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
AuburnSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
BucknellPat0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.020.0228.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
RiceCUSA0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01