Southern Illinois

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	255.0
Current RPI:	255
Expected SOS:	124
Current SOS:	124
Current Record:	8-22
Expected Record:	8-22
Current Conf Record:	5-14
Expected Conf Record:	5-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-2
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	302
Expected OOC SOS:	271

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-22	255.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	H	42-61	L	0%
11-19	Northeastern (172.0)	CAA	A	64-57	L	0%
11-25	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	H	73-57	W	100%
12-7	Western Kentucky (189.0)	SB	H	55-62	L	0%
12-11	Western Michigan (205.0)	MAC	A	54-43	L	0%
12-17	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	A	49-62	W	100%
12-19	SIU Edwardsville (300.0)	OVC	H	80-57	W	100%
12-22	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	N	58-83	L	0%
12-23	Clemson (151.0)	ACC	N	75-83	L	0%
12-25	Xavier (41.0)	A10	N	77-87	L	0%
12-29	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	A	78-60	L	0%
1-1	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	H	86-71	W	100%
1-4	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	A	65-74	W	100%
1-7	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	H	73-83	L	0%
1-10	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	A	77-65	L	0%
1-13	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	H	73-67	W	100%
1-15	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	90-71	L	0%
1-18	Drake (133.0)	MVC	H	68-75	L	0%
1-21	Wichita St. (12.0)	MVC	A	85-42	L	0%
1-24	Bradley (265.0)	MVC	H	77-60	W	100%
1-28	Illinois St. (100.0)	MVC	A	60-40	L	0%
1-31	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	A	58-49	L	0%
2-4	Evansville (131.0)	MVC	H	53-52	W	100%
2-8	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	H	54-56	L	0%
2-11	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	78-68	L	0%
2-14	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	H	69-88	L	0%
2-18	Ball St. (256.0)	MAC	A	71-62	L	0%
2-22	Drake (133.0)	MVC	A	78-63	L	0%
2-25	Northern Iowa (73.0)	MVC	H	61-65	L	0%
3-1	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	N	66-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Illinois	MVC	26.39	26.39	23.88	23.88	-13.79	-13.79
Indiana St.	MVC	5.93	5.93	53.57	53.57	0.42	0.42
Illinois St.	MVC	4.46	4.46	61.29	61.29	1.01	1.01
Creighton	MVC	4.43	4.43	83.87	83.87	3.00	3.00
Wichita St.	MVC	4.40	4.40	82.76	82.76	2.88	2.88
Drake	MVC	4.34	4.34	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Evansville	MVC	4.34	4.34	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	4.32	4.32	23.33	23.33	-2.30	-2.30
Missouri St.	MVC	4.29	4.29	44.83	44.83	-0.44	-0.44
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.29	4.29	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Ball St.	MAC	1.94	1.94	46.43	46.43	-0.14	-0.14
Chicago St.	GWC	1.88	1.88	11.11	11.11	-1.46	-1.46
Western Michigan	MAC	1.84	1.84	37.50	37.50	-0.46	-0.46
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.83	1.83	14.29	14.29	-1.31	-1.31
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.80	1.80	33.33	33.33	-0.60	-0.60
Xavier	A10	1.75	1.75	62.50	62.50	0.44	0.44
St. Louis	A10	1.74	1.74	76.67	76.67	0.93	0.93
Northeastern	CAA	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Clemson	ACC	1.67	1.67	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	1.67	1.67	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Western Kentucky	SB	1.67	1.67	43.75	43.75	-0.21	-0.21
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.25	0.25	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.24	0.24	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	Horz	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.19	0.19	10.71	10.71	-0.15	-0.15
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.18	0.18	37.04	37.04	-0.05	-0.05
Central Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Old Dominion	CAA	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.16	0.16	82.35	82.35	0.10	0.10
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Temple	A10	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Dayton	A10	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.11	0.11	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.11	0.11	25.93	25.93	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Nevada	WAC	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.09	0.09	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	64.29	64.29	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Sum	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	6.90	6.90	-0.05	-0.05
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	3.12	3.12	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	WAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	SB	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01