Southern Illinois

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	192.0
Current RPI:	192
Expected SOS:	148
Current SOS:	148
Current Record:	13-17
Expected Record:	13-17
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-3
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	157
Expected OOC SOS:	316

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-17	192.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	A	55-72	W	100%
11-20	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	A	55-71	W	100%
11-24	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	61-51	L	0%
11-28	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	57-54	W	100%
12-5	Western Kentucky (150.0)	SB	A	58-57	L	0%
12-15	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	70-72	W	100%
12-17	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	H	74-61	W	100%
12-20	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	N	70-78	L	0%
12-21	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	N	53-65	W	100%
12-22	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	70-58	L	0%
12-30	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	A	70-59	L	0%
1-2	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	H	60-66	L	0%
1-5	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	A	85-68	L	0%
1-9	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	A	82-76	L	0%
1-12	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	76-71	W	100%
1-15	Bradley (190.0)	MVC	A	69-66	L	0%
1-20	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	H	56-70	L	0%
1-23	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	58-45	L	0%
1-27	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	H	51-81	L	0%
1-30	Drake (143.0)	MVC	H	56-61	L	0%
2-2	Illinois St. (117.0)	MVC	A	83-47	L	0%
2-5	Wichita St. (37.0)	MVC	H	64-62	W	100%
2-9	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	66-65	L	0%
2-13	Evansville (106.0)	MVC	H	65-56	W	100%
2-16	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	H	62-54	W	100%
2-19	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	A	59-45	L	0%
2-23	Miami OH (258.0)	MAC	H	74-68	W	100%
2-27	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	H	63-57	W	100%
3-2	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	63-66	W	100%
3-7	Missouri St. (203.0)	MVC	N	61-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Illinois	MVC	26.47	26.47	44.53	44.53	-2.90	-2.90
Missouri St.	MVC	5.88	5.88	25.00	25.00	-2.94	-2.94
Wichita St.	MVC	4.41	4.41	78.12	78.12	2.48	2.48
Creighton	MVC	4.38	4.38	78.12	78.12	2.47	2.47
Illinois St.	MVC	4.36	4.36	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
Drake	MVC	4.35	4.35	44.83	44.83	-0.45	-0.45
Indiana St.	MVC	4.32	4.32	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
Evansville	MVC	4.30	4.30	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Bradley	MVC	4.28	4.28	46.67	46.67	-0.29	-0.29
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.27	4.27	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
New Orleans	ind	3.39	3.39	20.00	20.00	-2.03	-2.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	1.87	1.87	31.03	31.03	-0.71	-0.71
Utah St.	WAC	1.77	1.77	65.52	65.52	0.55	0.55
UC Davis	BW	1.72	1.72	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Miami OH	MAC	1.72	1.72	27.59	27.59	-0.77	-0.77
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.72	1.72	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
St. Louis	A10	1.70	1.70	81.25	81.25	1.06	1.06
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.69	1.69	29.17	29.17	-0.70	-0.70
Fresno St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Western Kentucky	SB	1.67	1.67	54.55	54.55	0.15	0.15
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.24	0.24	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.22	0.22	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.21	0.21	75.76	75.76	0.11	0.11
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.20	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
San Diego St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
St. Mary's	WCC	0.18	0.18	81.25	81.25	0.12	0.12
Air Force	MWC	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Valparaiso	Horz	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Tulsa	CUSA	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.16	0.16	85.29	85.29	0.11	0.11
Detroit	Horz	0.15	0.15	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.15	0.15	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
IUPUI	Sum	0.13	0.13	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa	B10	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.07	0.07
North Texas	SB	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Denver	WAC	0.11	0.11	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
Idaho	WAC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	67.86	67.86	0.04	0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
UAB	CUSA	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	14.81	14.81	-0.05	-0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00