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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:235.3
Current RPI:102
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:69
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:203
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-967.30.03%
17-1085.00.09%
16-11109.20.44%
15-12127.71.22%
14-13148.13.12%
13-14169.96.74%
12-15192.011.32%
11-16214.915.63%
10-17235.718.28%
9-18255.516.55%
8-19274.513.05%
7-20291.37.88%
6-21307.53.77%
5-22317.61.47%
4-23327.30.36%
3-24337.80.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Xavier (9.4)BEA101-49L0%0.0
11-12Lipscomb (199.1)ASunA77-70L0%0.0
11-16Marshall (170.2)CUSAH86-83W100%0.0
11-21IUPUI (279.8)HorzA0-043%-2.2
11-25Virginia Tech (63.1)ACCA0-03%-22.7
11-27Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndA0-053%0.8
12-2Northern Kentucky (98.6)HorzA0-014%-12.9
12-17Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-071%6.8
12-19Butler (79.5)BEA0-06%-19.1
12-28Tennessee Tech (233.3)OVCA0-037%-4.1
12-30Jacksonville St. (131.8)OVCA0-016%-11.9
1-4Eastern Illinois (246.1)OVCH0-054%1.4
1-6SIU Edwardsville (287.7)OVCH0-071%6.5
1-11Southeast Missouri St. (266.3)OVCA0-042%-2.5
1-13Tennessee Martin (212.3)OVCA0-029%-6.7
1-18Jacksonville St. (131.8)OVCH0-031%-5.9
1-20Tennessee Tech (233.3)OVCH0-056%1.9
1-25Murray St. (146.9)OVCA0-016%-11.9
1-27Austin Peay (290.1)OVCA0-049%-0.3
2-1Tennessee St. (185.2)OVCH0-048%-0.5
2-3Belmont (80.1)OVCH0-025%-8.2
2-8Southeast Missouri St. (266.3)OVCH0-061%3.5
2-10Eastern Kentucky (183.2)OVCA0-028%-6.9
2-15Tennessee St. (185.2)OVCA0-030%-6.5
2-17Belmont (80.1)OVCA0-012%-14.2
2-22Tennessee Martin (212.3)OVCH0-048%-0.7
2-24Eastern Kentucky (183.2)OVCH0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC33.3326.4033.3338.68-11.11-5.98
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.004.6850.0051.610.000.15
BelmontOVC0.004.6375.0070.830.001.93
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.5950.0038.560.00-1.05
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.580.0045.240.00-0.44
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.5650.0067.680.001.61
Tennessee MartinOVC2.784.5325.0049.19-1.39-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.004.490.0035.580.00-1.30
Central ArkansasSlnd0.003.700.0035.440.00-1.08
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.8133.3330.000.00-1.12
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.8033.3340.830.00-0.51
Austin PeayOVC0.002.770.0029.090.00-1.16
Murray St.OVC0.002.7750.0065.860.000.88
LipscombASun16.672.110.0047.19-16.67-0.12
MarshallCUSA16.672.01100.0050.7916.670.03
IUPUIHorz0.001.990.0031.240.00-0.75
Northern KentuckyHorz0.001.99100.0070.390.000.81
XavierBE16.671.95100.0078.2716.671.10
ButlerBE0.001.9175.0050.860.000.03
Virginia TechACC0.001.8575.0060.770.000.40
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.240.0031.380.00-0.09
Green BayHorz0.000.230.0044.830.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.230.0049.250.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.2366.6768.320.000.08
ChattanoogaSC0.000.220.0038.990.00-0.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.220.0045.040.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.20100.0085.360.000.14
DetroitHorz0.000.200.0029.290.00-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.20100.0060.010.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.190.0036.830.00-0.05
ProvidenceBE0.000.1975.0064.570.000.05
Wright St.Horz0.000.170.0041.210.00-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.170.0027.250.00-0.08
Western IllinoisSum0.000.17100.0038.710.00-0.04
Saint LouisA100.000.1666.6753.390.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1650.0050.870.000.00
CreightonBE0.000.16100.0067.460.000.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.150.0038.960.00-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.000.140.0029.620.00-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1433.3333.580.00-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1450.0048.410.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1466.6765.630.000.04
TexasB122.780.14100.0063.832.780.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.140.0039.010.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.1375.0048.770.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.130.0026.180.00-0.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.13100.0059.250.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1366.6742.260.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.130.0026.150.00-0.06
TCUB120.000.13100.0061.150.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.13100.0059.240.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.13100.0051.080.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.1333.3331.290.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.13100.0058.070.000.02
Seton HallBE0.000.13100.0067.950.000.05
St. John'sBE0.000.13100.0054.590.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.13100.0082.960.000.08
Little RockSB0.000.120.0037.050.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1250.0043.710.00-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.120.0022.920.00-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.120.0047.180.00-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.120.0044.130.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.12100.0069.350.000.05
StetsonASun0.000.1033.3333.620.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.1033.3357.840.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.10100.0051.900.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.1066.6748.280.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.000.100.0048.610.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.1050.0059.440.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.10100.0063.590.000.03
RiceCUSA0.000.1033.3336.410.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.10100.0053.790.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0966.6749.990.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0060.370.000.02
SouthernSWAC2.780.090.0044.63-2.78-0.01
VirginiaACC0.000.09100.0074.140.000.04
BaylorB120.000.09100.0061.110.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0950.0046.810.00-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0766.6773.200.000.03
NJITASun0.000.0733.3333.210.00-0.02
North FloridaASun0.000.070.0036.690.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0733.3346.330.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.07100.0082.910.000.05
South AlabamaSB0.000.0733.3345.780.00-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.070.0040.830.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0733.3335.310.00-0.02
DaytonA100.000.0766.6762.150.000.02
IndianaB100.000.0733.3341.220.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.07100.0062.930.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.070.0035.760.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0750.0050.570.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.070.0042.850.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.070.0033.850.00-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.910.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3342.010.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0046.080.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.880.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.000.06100.0046.080.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.060.0030.280.00-0.03
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3347.970.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0025.140.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0037.120.00-0.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.060.0029.630.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.06100.0065.580.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.060.0023.170.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.060.0042.810.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0034.040.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.060.0046.000.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0048.690.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.000.06100.0078.750.000.04
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0083.580.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0066.990.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.06100.0074.500.000.03
AlabamaSEC2.780.04100.0061.322.780.01
NavyPat0.000.0450.0052.870.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.000.04100.0048.350.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6750.670.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.0333.3345.540.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.03100.0086.180.000.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0333.3352.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0325.0059.770.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.030.0031.810.00-0.01
MaristMAAC0.000.030.0023.830.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0350.0062.630.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UMBCAE0.000.030.0052.900.000.00
Washington St.P120.000.03100.0041.780.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0022.610.00-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.03100.0039.920.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0059.540.000.01
TroySB0.000.0333.3346.410.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.030.0064.600.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6756.330.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0071.740.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.030.0051.010.000.00
UtahP120.000.03100.0067.160.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.000.03100.0059.760.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0052.860.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.030.0024.970.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.030.0032.130.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0366.6745.880.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.030.0048.070.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.03100.0066.010.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0350.0036.640.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0366.6763.220.000.01
OhioMAC0.000.0333.3348.480.00-0.00
RiderMAAC2.780.0366.6755.210.930.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.030.0034.600.00-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.030.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0333.3338.350.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
WisconsinB102.780.0366.6766.970.930.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0375.0045.290.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.03100.0054.960.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
IowaB100.000.03100.0058.250.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.030.0028.770.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.03100.0078.160.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0054.680.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0073.730.000.01
PittsburghACC0.000.0333.3334.560.00-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0016.000.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0333.3330.460.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01