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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:127.0
Current RPI:127
Expected SOS:172
Current SOS:172
Current Record:17-12
Expected Record:17-12
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:147
Expected OOC SOS:119



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12127.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Illinois St. (114.0)MVCA67-66L0%0.0
11-21Northern Kentucky (296.0)HorzA56-64W100%0.0
11-24Marshall (128.0)CUSAH85-61W100%0.0
11-28Southern Miss (314.0)CUSAH61-46W100%0.0
12-2Saint Louis (206.0)A10A46-60W100%0.0
12-5Indiana (24.0)B10A92-59L0%0.0
12-13Pittsburgh (53.0)ACCA72-62L0%0.0
12-20Western Carolina (166.0)SCH60-52W100%0.0
12-23Davidson (64.0)A10A81-77L0%0.0
12-28Green Bay (112.0)HorzH72-78L0%0.0
12-30East Tennessee St. (85.0)SCA75-72L0%0.0
1-2Murray St. (169.0)OVCA62-57L0%0.0
1-7Southeast Missouri St. (342.0)OVCH96-69W100%0.0
1-9Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCH64-58W100%0.0
1-14SIU Edwardsville (305.0)OVCA67-70W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Illinois (271.0)OVCA84-82L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCH81-74W100%0.0
1-24Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH74-78L0%0.0
1-27Austin Peay (184.0)OVCH75-65W100%0.0
1-30Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCA67-70W100%0.0
2-4Belmont (98.0)OVCA73-67L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCA77-76L0%0.0
2-11Eastern Kentucky (211.0)OVCH61-50W100%0.0
2-13Belmont (98.0)OVCH78-77W100%0.0
2-18Tennessee St. (152.0)OVCH66-61W100%0.0
2-25Tennessee Tech (134.0)OVCA59-69W100%0.0
2-27Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCA71-82W100%0.0
3-3Murray St. (169.0)OVCN75-66W100%0.0
3-4Tennessee Martin (213.0)OVCN83-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.2526.2562.6062.606.626.62
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.224.2250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC4.214.2165.3865.381.301.30
Tennessee TechOVC4.214.2165.3865.381.291.29
BelmontOVC4.194.1964.2964.291.201.20
Jacksonville St.OVC4.164.1618.5218.52-2.62-2.62
Tennessee MartinOVC4.164.1655.1755.170.430.43
Murray St.OVC4.154.1551.8551.850.150.15
Austin PeayOVC2.702.7050.0050.000.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.602.6037.0437.04-0.67-0.67
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.482.4822.2222.22-1.38-1.38
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.462.4611.5411.54-1.89-1.89
East Tennessee St.SC1.931.9364.5264.520.560.56
Green BayHorz1.871.8762.5062.500.470.47
Illinois St.MVC1.851.8553.3353.330.120.12
MarshallCUSA1.841.8453.1253.120.120.12
Northern KentuckyHorz1.841.8425.9325.93-0.89-0.89
Saint LouisA101.841.8435.4835.48-0.53-0.53
Western CarolinaSC1.831.8344.8344.83-0.19-0.19
DavidsonA101.811.8160.0060.000.360.36
IndianaB101.781.7877.4277.420.980.98
PittsburghACC1.781.7863.3363.330.470.47
Southern MissCUSA1.751.7526.9226.92-0.81-0.81
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.290.2970.9770.970.120.12
ChattanoogaSC0.290.2984.3884.380.200.20
LipscombASun0.260.2632.2632.26-0.09-0.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
ValparaisoHorz0.250.2580.0080.000.150.15
Southern IllinoisMVC0.200.2068.7568.750.080.08
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2072.7372.730.090.09
Wright St.Horz0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
SamfordSC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.170.1780.6580.650.110.11
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.170.1722.5822.58-0.09-0.09
WoffordSC0.170.1743.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.140.1451.6151.610.000.00
DuquesneA100.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
George MasonA100.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
StetsonASun0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
IowaB100.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.110.1144.1244.12-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
OaklandHorz0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.110.1130.0030.00-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
VMISC0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
IPFWSum0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
George WashingtonA100.110.1169.7069.700.040.04
St. BonaventureA100.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
Georgia TechACC0.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0970.0070.000.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
South AlabamaSB0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
OhioMAC0.090.0964.5264.520.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0918.5218.52-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.090.093.453.45-0.08-0.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.050.05
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
SyracuseACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Wichita St.MVC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
MarylandB100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
WisconsinB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola MDPat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
TroySB0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0335.2935.29-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01