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Through games of Mar 5, 2015.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:205.1
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:222
Current SOS:224
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:12-6
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Probability of Auto Bid:12.18%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:197



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16205.1100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UNLV (98.2)MWCA60-59L0%0.0
11-19Cincinnati (37.9)AmerA69-61L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Tech (54.0)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
11-22Presbyterian (314.8)BSthN69-49W100%0.0
11-23American (146.9)PatN51-46L0%0.0
11-26Marshall (291.2)CUSAA68-77W100%0.0
12-1East Tennessee St. (185.2)SCH59-63L0%0.0
12-4UAB (160.8)CUSAA58-48L0%0.0
12-6Oakland (127.6)HorzH68-70L0%0.0
12-13Ohio St. (33.8)B10A87-71L0%0.0
12-17Green Bay (59.6)HorzA66-50L0%0.0
12-19Northern Kentucky (259.7)ASunH60-83L0%0.0
12-29Central Arkansas (348.9)SlndA60-95W100%0.0
1-3Murray St. (66.5)OVCH57-66L0%0.0
1-8Southeast Missouri St. (280.8)OVCA57-70W100%0.0
1-10Tennessee Martin (181.0)OVCA75-72L0%0.0
1-15SIU Edwardsville (290.1)OVCH91-63W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Illinois (165.6)OVCH62-65L0%0.0
1-22Tennessee Tech (286.1)OVCA74-78W100%0.0
1-24Jacksonville St. (302.8)OVCA63-66W100%0.0
1-28Austin Peay (313.1)OVCA69-82W100%0.0
1-31Eastern Kentucky (146.8)OVCH57-66L0%0.0
2-5Tennessee St. (344.6)OVCH72-57W100%0.0
2-7Belmont (137.7)OVCH73-71W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Kentucky (146.8)OVCA69-57L0%0.0
2-14Belmont (137.7)OVCA58-57L0%0.0
2-23Tennessee St. (344.6)OVCA70-86W100%0.0
2-26Tennessee Tech (286.1)OVCH86-73W100%0.0
2-28Jacksonville St. (302.8)OVCH87-55W100%0.0
3-4Southeast Missouri St. (280.8)OVCN79-74W100%0.0
3-5Tennessee Martin (181.0)OVCN65-76W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.2826.2751.6351.630.860.86
BelmontOVC3.943.9466.6766.671.311.31
Jacksonville St.OVC3.943.9437.0437.04-1.02-1.02
Tennessee TechOVC3.943.9438.4638.46-0.91-0.91
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.943.9460.0060.000.790.79
Tennessee MartinOVC3.923.9257.6957.690.600.60
Tennessee St.OVC3.913.9111.1111.11-3.04-3.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.893.8942.3142.31-0.60-0.60
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.422.4250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.332.3340.0040.00-0.47-0.47
Austin PeayOVC2.302.3022.2222.22-1.28-1.28
Murray St.OVC2.302.3085.1985.191.621.62
Louisiana TechCUSA1.751.7575.8675.860.910.90
East Tennessee St.SC1.731.7350.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth1.721.7222.2222.22-0.96-0.96
MarshallCUSA1.721.7233.3332.61-0.57-0.60
UABCUSA1.701.6950.0050.530.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd1.671.677.417.34-1.42-1.43
Northern KentuckyASun1.671.6737.0437.04-0.43-0.43
OaklandHorz1.671.6746.4346.43-0.12-0.12
AmericanPat1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz1.671.6774.0774.070.800.80
CincinnatiAmer1.641.6468.9769.110.620.63
Ohio St.B101.611.6172.4171.650.720.70
UNLVMWC1.611.6150.0051.610.000.05
LipscombASun0.370.3739.2939.29-0.08-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.3048.2848.63-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.260.2635.4835.48-0.07-0.07
Wright St.Horz0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.230.2382.1482.140.150.15
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.230.2327.5929.40-0.10-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.2253.5753.570.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.230.2262.9661.330.060.05
North FloridaASun0.200.2063.3363.330.050.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.200.2026.9227.45-0.09-0.09
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1768.9768.970.070.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
NebraskaB100.170.1744.8344.45-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.140.1440.0040.00-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1426.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
WinthropBSth0.140.1453.8553.850.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.140.1451.7251.660.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1426.9229.11-0.07-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1427.5927.59-0.06-0.06
UNC AshevilleBSth0.140.1444.4444.44-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.110.1442.8642.57-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.140.1425.9325.93-0.07-0.07
TempleAmer0.130.1370.0069.660.050.05
CampbellBSth0.120.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.120.1137.0436.71-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.110.1170.0069.320.050.04
DetroitHorz0.110.1143.3343.33-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
MississippiSEC0.110.1166.6766.660.040.04
VCUA100.110.1170.0070.800.040.05
WisconsinB100.090.1190.0088.730.070.09
TulaneAmer0.110.1146.4346.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.110.1176.6775.460.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.1143.3344.74-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1179.3179.430.070.06
UTEPCUSA0.110.1168.9769.660.040.04
UTSACUSA0.110.1142.3143.29-0.02-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.1160.0058.930.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0963.3363.700.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.090.0979.3179.310.050.05
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0918.5217.90-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0933.3333.97-0.03-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0965.5265.520.030.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0961.5461.540.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.090.0965.3865.380.030.03
Georgia St.SB0.090.0968.9769.350.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
High PointBSth0.080.0870.3770.370.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0837.9339.05-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0825.0024.72-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0854.1755.350.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0876.9274.970.050.04
NevadaMWC0.080.0825.9325.08-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.2848.71-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.4443.97-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.080.0834.6233.72-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0839.2939.29-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0837.9338.68-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0863.3362.470.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0049.040.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0875.8676.600.040.04
ColgatePat0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
BYUWCC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.0099.900.060.06
MercerSC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0627.5927.69-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0655.1754.370.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0680.0079.770.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0631.0332.31-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0670.3768.740.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0642.3143.00-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0658.0659.050.010.01
MissouriSEC0.060.0627.5927.73-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
UMKCWAC0.060.0639.2940.13-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0685.1984.850.040.04
ToledoMAC0.060.0663.3363.000.020.01
TroySB0.060.0630.7731.12-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0673.3373.210.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.5061.820.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0643.3342.95-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0646.1547.14-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0637.5039.78-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.4329.84-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.1547.44-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0632.1432.89-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
TCUB120.060.0656.6756.080.010.01
UC DavisBW0.060.0680.7779.950.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0658.6257.790.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0696.5595.350.050.05
BrownIvy0.050.0540.7438.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0550.0048.750.00-0.00
XavierBE0.060.0560.0060.270.010.01
ArizonaP120.060.0590.0090.050.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.4345.71-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0583.3382.790.040.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0566.6766.280.020.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0575.0075.650.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0536.6737.24-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.060.0560.7160.060.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0571.4370.300.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.030.050.000.12-0.03-0.05
North CarolinaACC0.050.0570.0069.450.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.0060.250.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0527.5928.43-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0558.6258.020.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0563.3362.750.010.01
IowaB100.050.0566.6767.380.020.02
LafayettePat0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0546.4347.82-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.050.0563.3363.340.010.01
SMUAmer0.050.0578.5778.600.030.03
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0376.0075.240.020.02
IPFWSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.0048.03-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.4833.47-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0314.8114.59-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0390.0088.610.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0370.3770.210.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0359.2658.620.010.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.07-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.9325.36-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0358.6257.930.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0322.2223.21-0.02-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.650.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0353.8553.590.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0330.4330.64-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0360.8761.030.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0372.4172.050.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.4444.65-0.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0360.0059.670.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0346.4346.55-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0355.5656.790.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0357.1456.680.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0353.3354.210.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0382.7681.940.020.02
FloridaSEC0.030.0350.0048.480.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0346.4345.04-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.030.0380.0078.510.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0355.5656.140.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0357.6958.220.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0370.0068.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0362.0760.280.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.0059.100.010.00
UCLAP120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
UtahP120.030.0378.5779.000.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0348.0048.70-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0049.660.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0341.3841.54-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0355.1755.990.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0333.3332.68-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0375.0073.120.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01