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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:262.0
Current RPI:261
Expected SOS:156
Current SOS:149
Current Record:4-13
Expected Record:8-19
Current Conf Record:2-6
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-8
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:223
Expected OOC SOS:41



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-14159.00.03%
12-15183.30.32%
11-16204.32.10%
10-17223.28.02%
9-18240.718.32%
8-19258.326.94%
7-20275.125.77%
6-21291.513.92%
5-22305.84.11%
4-23317.40.46%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Xavier (6.2)BEA101-49L0%0.0
11-12Lipscomb (132.8)ASunA77-70L0%0.0
11-16Marshall (101.3)CUSAH86-83W100%0.0
11-21IUPUI (300.2)HorzA67-61L0%0.0
11-25Virginia Tech (83.2)ACCA96-63L0%0.0
11-27Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndA82-78L0%0.0
12-2Northern Kentucky (88.6)HorzA86-49L0%0.0
12-17Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH98-94W100%0.0
12-19Butler (37.3)BEA85-69L0%0.0
12-28Tennessee Tech (171.8)OVCA69-67L0%0.0
12-30Jacksonville St. (151.8)OVCA76-69L0%0.0
1-4Eastern Illinois (270.0)OVCH52-61L0%0.0
1-6SIU Edwardsville (271.1)OVCH65-70L0%0.0
1-11Southeast Missouri St. (244.4)OVCA78-75L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee Martin (301.2)OVCA67-71W100%0.0
1-18Jacksonville St. (151.8)OVCH57-58L0%0.0
1-20Tennessee Tech (171.8)OVCH74-55W100%0.0
1-25Murray St. (88.6)OVCA0-07%-16.4
1-27Austin Peay (215.2)OVCA0-030%-5.9
2-1Tennessee St. (212.9)OVCH0-052%0.6
2-3Belmont (82.7)OVCH0-021%-8.8
2-8Southeast Missouri St. (244.4)OVCH0-058%2.3
2-10Eastern Kentucky (271.3)OVCA0-041%-2.5
2-15Tennessee St. (212.9)OVCA0-030%-5.8
2-17Belmont (82.7)OVCA0-09%-15.2
2-22Tennessee Martin (301.2)OVCH0-063%3.5
2-24Eastern Kentucky (271.3)OVCH0-064%3.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.7626.3723.8828.67-13.98-11.25
Eastern KentuckyOVC1.084.6631.5831.62-0.40-1.71
BelmontOVC0.794.6271.4373.940.342.21
Tennessee TechOVC5.974.5858.8253.431.050.31
Tennessee St.OVC0.714.5735.2939.01-0.21-1.00
Jacksonville St.OVC5.884.5466.6765.951.961.45
Tennessee MartinOVC3.184.5127.7832.46-1.41-1.58
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.114.4838.8941.47-0.69-0.76
Central ArkansasSlnd5.883.7044.4449.22-0.65-0.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.182.7933.3330.39-1.06-1.09
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.182.7925.0031.40-1.59-1.04
Austin PeayOVC0.622.7544.4445.08-0.07-0.27
Murray St.OVC0.622.7570.5975.270.261.39
LipscombASun3.102.1050.0057.730.000.33
MarshallCUSA3.092.0172.2265.831.370.64
Northern KentuckyHorz3.021.9864.7172.250.890.88
IUPUIHorz3.191.9823.5327.14-1.69-0.91
XavierBE3.091.9485.0079.412.161.14
ButlerBE3.011.9165.0061.840.900.45
Virginia TechACC2.941.8566.6756.370.980.24
ChattanoogaSC0.600.2822.2228.59-0.34-0.12
Kennesaw St.ASun0.310.2316.6724.91-0.21-0.12
Green BayHorz0.330.2325.0027.94-0.17-0.10
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.080.2272.2274.700.030.11
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.310.2243.7554.09-0.040.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.2268.4270.810.030.09
PurdueB100.320.2090.4888.380.260.15
DetroitHorz0.240.2021.0525.98-0.14-0.10
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.320.1952.9452.620.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.160.1945.0047.05-0.02-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.1870.0060.460.060.04
Wright St.Horz0.160.1768.4269.240.060.07
Western IllinoisSum0.400.1642.8635.25-0.06-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.150.1621.0523.50-0.09-0.09
Saint LouisA100.220.1647.3746.91-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.230.1568.4260.530.080.03
CreightonBE0.220.1575.0070.690.110.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.080.155.8819.37-0.07-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.090.1433.3333.80-0.03-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1320.0023.36-0.10-0.07
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.160.1342.1145.97-0.03-0.01
OaklandHorz0.080.1361.9065.160.020.04
TexasB120.160.1363.1657.620.040.02
USC UpstateASun0.150.1311.1117.96-0.11-0.09
BradleyMVC0.250.1365.0057.870.070.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1316.6724.29-0.10-0.07
Southern IllinoisMVC0.150.1352.6350.250.010.00
IllinoisB100.150.1347.3744.27-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.150.1321.0524.71-0.09-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.220.1372.2258.940.100.02
Oregon St.P120.150.1357.8950.810.020.00
TCUB120.150.1273.6865.590.070.04
Little RockSB0.290.1222.2225.26-0.16-0.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.150.1250.0051.480.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.127.1414.820.00-0.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1243.7549.10-0.02-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.150.1252.9455.040.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.1280.0078.860.000.07
DePaulBE0.140.1242.1134.32-0.02-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.070.1268.4254.090.030.01
Seton HallBE0.140.1275.0067.890.070.04
VillanovaBE0.140.1294.7490.310.130.10
St. John'sBE0.070.1247.3742.18-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.160.1033.3336.92-0.05-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.1055.5656.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.1052.6347.360.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.230.1077.7879.160.130.06
Central MichiganMAC0.230.1062.5058.700.060.02
AkronMAC0.150.0947.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.0952.6355.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0911.1117.690.00-0.06
SouthernSWAC0.150.0927.7840.97-0.07-0.02
FurmanSC0.220.0966.6768.500.070.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.230.0915.7920.92-0.16-0.05
MississippiSEC0.080.0952.6345.860.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0936.8435.550.00-0.03
VirginiaACC0.080.0994.4485.440.070.07
BaylorB120.220.0961.1156.090.050.01
WashingtonP120.080.0970.0061.440.030.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0757.8966.250.010.02
NJITASun0.000.0738.8942.600.00-0.01
North FloridaASun0.090.0731.5835.15-0.03-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0760.0060.340.000.01
KansasB120.000.0784.2179.740.000.04
South AlabamaSB0.160.0750.0045.900.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0630.0036.48-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0627.7831.12-0.03-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0617.6519.33-0.05-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0620.0028.720.00-0.03
DaytonA100.150.0647.3750.95-0.010.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0638.8946.030.00-0.01
IndianaB100.150.0657.8950.680.020.00
Kansas St.B120.080.0673.6862.720.040.02
LSUSEC0.080.0661.1153.160.020.00
Montana St.BSky0.080.0650.0047.670.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.150.0625.0028.02-0.08-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.0645.0048.56-0.02-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.760.00-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0621.0539.470.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.0612.5025.47-0.11-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.150.0672.2274.900.070.03
CaliforniaP120.150.0636.8431.12-0.04-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
HowardMEAC0.150.0610.5327.31-0.12-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.150.067.6920.09-0.12-0.04
LamarSlnd0.150.0650.0054.850.000.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.0626.6729.04-0.07-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0628.5731.270.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.150.0637.5045.22-0.04-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0678.9576.760.040.03
OregonP120.150.0665.0063.830.040.02
RichmondA100.150.0631.5834.35-0.05-0.02
SamfordSC0.150.0627.7832.66-0.07-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.150.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.0627.7834.50-0.07-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0627.7831.67-0.07-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.067.6923.28-0.12-0.03
TulsaAmer0.150.0655.0053.290.010.00
UABCUSA0.080.0661.1164.130.020.02
UCLAP120.150.0665.0062.040.040.01
DukeACC0.000.0689.4785.190.000.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0677.7869.360.040.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0676.4769.020.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0610.5318.340.00-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0657.8954.500.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.090.0468.4258.990.030.01
NavyPat0.090.0460.0055.160.020.00
TennesseeSEC0.090.0472.2268.920.040.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.030.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.080.0361.1158.750.020.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.0310.0019.620.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.080.0380.9583.260.050.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0347.3745.870.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0321.0521.990.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.090.0366.6759.780.030.01
San Diego St.MWC0.090.0358.8262.830.020.01
Washington St.P120.080.0350.0042.180.00-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.0310.5316.750.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.080.0363.1666.880.020.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0325.0028.25-0.04-0.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0365.0058.490.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.450.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0368.4254.090.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0368.4263.980.030.01
TroySB0.000.0335.2942.760.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.080.0358.8258.360.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0350.0055.650.000.00
VermontAE0.080.0373.6877.120.040.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.030.003.12-0.08-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0352.6351.700.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.080.0350.0051.360.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.0335.2935.570.00-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0337.5037.680.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0344.4446.640.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.44-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0341.1838.46-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.690.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0333.3334.110.00-0.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0341.1839.650.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.080.0364.7159.980.020.01
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0368.4255.060.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.520.060.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0384.2173.210.000.01
ColoradoP120.070.0360.0053.730.010.00
Florida St.ACC0.080.0373.6869.610.040.01
George WashingtonA100.070.0345.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.070.0320.0041.76-0.04-0.00
IowaB100.080.0347.6244.03-0.00-0.00
Kent St.MAC0.070.0344.4444.86-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.950.040.01
MarylandB100.070.0370.0065.320.030.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0380.0075.050.000.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0368.4257.770.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0347.0652.51-0.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0363.1661.050.000.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.040.02
PittsburghACC0.080.0340.0030.87-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.070.0358.8263.210.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0329.4127.74-0.03-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0352.9460.270.000.01
RadfordBSth0.080.0361.1160.790.020.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0365.0065.370.020.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0368.4261.270.030.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0318.7518.40-0.05-0.02
UtahP120.070.0361.1158.950.020.01
Wake ForestACC0.080.0344.4441.15-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.070.0350.0046.260.00-0.00