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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:200.0
Current RPI:200
Expected SOS:160
Current SOS:160
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:264
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16200.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lipscomb (189.0)ASunH89-75W100%0.0
11-16Marshall (112.0)CUSAA85-77L0%0.0
11-19Evansville (188.0)MVCA69-56L0%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (74.0)ACCA76-63L0%0.0
11-30Northern Kentucky (87.0)HorzH79-84L0%0.0
12-3Purdue (19.0)B10A90-56L0%0.0
12-10Lipscomb (189.0)ASunA98-84L0%0.0
12-13Eastern Washington (148.0)BSkyA88-86L0%0.0
12-17East Tennessee St. (55.0)SCH68-78L0%0.0
12-19Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH111-85W100%0.0
12-22Mississippi St. (150.0)SECA85-76L0%0.0
12-31Tennessee Martin (164.0)OVCA81-77L0%0.0
1-5Eastern Illinois (265.0)OVCH85-75W100%0.0
1-7SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCH73-65W100%0.0
1-12Belmont (61.0)OVCH78-84L0%0.0
1-14Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCH87-85W100%0.0
1-19Austin Peay (261.0)OVCA82-89W100%0.0
1-21Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCH80-54W100%0.0
1-26Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA76-73L0%0.0
1-28Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCA69-72W100%0.0
2-4Southeast Missouri St. (274.0)OVCA81-89W100%0.0
2-8Murray St. (230.0)OVCH101-100W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Kentucky (247.0)OVCA62-67W100%0.0
2-16Tennessee St. (162.0)OVCA64-52L0%0.0
2-18Belmont (61.0)OVCA89-73L0%0.0
2-23Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCH73-68W100%0.0
2-25Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH61-70L0%0.0
3-2Murray St. (230.0)OVCN69-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.2526.2544.0744.07-3.11-3.11
Tennessee TechOVC4.454.4532.1432.14-1.59-1.59
BelmontOVC4.444.4476.0076.002.312.31
Jacksonville St.OVC4.414.4156.6756.670.590.59
Tennessee St.OVC4.364.3653.8553.850.340.34
Murray St.OVC4.304.3044.8344.83-0.45-0.45
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.304.3037.0437.04-1.11-1.11
LipscombASun3.923.9257.1457.140.560.56
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.632.6343.3343.33-0.35-0.35
Tennessee MartinOVC2.572.5760.0060.000.510.51
Austin PeayOVC2.572.5733.3333.33-0.86-0.86
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.482.4846.1546.15-0.19-0.19
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.452.4518.5218.52-1.54-1.54
Northern KentuckyHorz1.911.9167.7467.740.680.68
EvansvilleMVC1.881.8843.3343.33-0.25-0.25
MarshallCUSA1.871.8754.5554.550.170.17
Central ArkansasSlnd1.811.8125.8125.81-0.88-0.88
East Tennessee St.SC1.811.8177.4277.420.990.99
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.811.8163.3363.330.480.48
Mississippi St.SEC1.811.8148.3948.39-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC1.811.8146.8846.88-0.11-0.11
PurdueB101.791.7977.4277.420.980.98
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.300.3087.8887.880.220.22
Western KentuckyCUSA0.270.2746.8846.88-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
TennesseeSEC0.200.2048.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1826.6726.67-0.08-0.08
North FloridaASun0.180.1836.6736.67-0.05-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.180.1829.4129.41-0.07-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.186.906.90-0.15-0.15
Southern IllinoisMVC0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1781.2581.250.110.11
LouisvilleACC0.170.1775.0075.000.090.09
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.170.1758.6258.620.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.160.1655.8855.880.020.02
StetsonASun0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
IndianaB100.150.1554.5554.550.010.01
Green BayHorz0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
UMKCWAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.140.1460.6160.610.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
DetroitHorz0.140.1423.3323.33-0.08-0.08
SamfordSC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
MissouriSEC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Miami OHMAC0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.120.1213.3313.33-0.09-0.09
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1284.3884.380.080.08
AuburnSEC0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
FurmanSC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
Michigan St.B100.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1256.6756.670.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MarylandB100.110.1174.1974.190.050.05
FloridaSEC0.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
IUPUISum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0977.1477.140.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
WoffordSC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0985.2985.290.060.06
OhioMAC0.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0836.0036.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Penn St.B100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
VirginiaACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
TroySB0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
DaytonA100.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
MontanaBSky0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Boise St.MWC0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
KentuckySEC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
DuquesneA100.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
The CitadelSC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
VMISC0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
WisconsinB100.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0312.9012.90-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UCFAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
SMUAmer0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01