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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:201.0
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:217
Current SOS:217
Current Record:15-17
Expected Record:15-17
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-1
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:266
Expected OOC SOS:201



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-17201.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UNLV (114.0)MWCA60-59L0%0.0
11-19Cincinnati (37.0)AmerA69-61L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Tech (58.0)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
11-22Presbyterian (315.0)BSthN69-49W100%0.0
11-23American (135.0)PatN51-46L0%0.0
11-26Marshall (296.0)CUSAA68-77W100%0.0
12-1East Tennessee St. (192.0)SCH59-63L0%0.0
12-4UAB (130.0)CUSAA58-48L0%0.0
12-6Oakland (155.0)HorzH68-70L0%0.0
12-13Ohio St. (41.0)B10A87-71L0%0.0
12-17Green Bay (54.0)HorzA66-50L0%0.0
12-19Northern Kentucky (265.0)ASunH60-83L0%0.0
12-29Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndA60-95W100%0.0
1-3Murray St. (63.0)OVCH57-66L0%0.0
1-8Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCA57-70W100%0.0
1-10Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCA75-72L0%0.0
1-15SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH91-63W100%0.0
1-17Eastern Illinois (173.0)OVCH62-65L0%0.0
1-22Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCA74-78W100%0.0
1-24Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCA63-66W100%0.0
1-28Austin Peay (318.0)OVCA69-82W100%0.0
1-31Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCH57-66L0%0.0
2-5Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCH72-57W100%0.0
2-7Belmont (105.0)OVCH73-71W100%0.0
2-11Eastern Kentucky (156.0)OVCA69-57L0%0.0
2-14Belmont (105.0)OVCA58-57L0%0.0
2-23Tennessee St. (341.0)OVCA70-86W100%0.0
2-26Tennessee Tech (290.0)OVCH86-73W100%0.0
2-28Jacksonville St. (304.0)OVCH87-55W100%0.0
3-4Southeast Missouri St. (289.0)OVCN79-74W100%0.0
3-5Tennessee Martin (177.0)OVCN65-76W100%0.0
3-6Murray St. (63.0)OVCN80-77L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.2826.2850.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC3.953.9568.9768.971.501.50
Eastern KentuckyOVC3.883.8857.6957.690.600.60
Murray St.OVC3.843.8482.1482.142.472.47
Tennessee MartinOVC3.843.8457.6957.690.590.59
Jacksonville St.OVC3.833.8337.0437.04-0.99-0.99
Tennessee TechOVC3.833.8338.4638.46-0.88-0.88
Southeast Missouri St.OVC3.813.8142.3142.31-0.59-0.59
Tennessee St.OVC3.813.8111.1111.11-2.96-2.96
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.382.3850.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.302.3040.0040.00-0.46-0.46
Austin PeayOVC2.272.2722.2222.22-1.26-1.26
Louisiana TechCUSA1.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
East Tennessee St.SC1.671.6748.1548.15-0.06-0.06
PresbyterianBSth1.671.6722.2222.22-0.93-0.93
MarshallCUSA1.661.6631.0331.03-0.63-0.63
UABCUSA1.661.6653.1253.120.100.10
Central ArkansasSlnd1.621.627.147.14-1.39-1.39
Northern KentuckyASun1.621.6237.0437.04-0.42-0.42
AmericanPat1.611.6150.0050.000.000.00
Green BayHorz1.611.6172.4172.410.720.72
OaklandHorz1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
CincinnatiAmer1.591.5967.7467.740.560.56
Ohio St.B101.561.5668.7568.750.590.59
UNLVMWC1.561.5651.6151.610.050.05
LipscombASun0.350.3539.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.330.3352.9452.940.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.280.2860.0060.000.060.06
Southern IllinoisMVC0.270.2734.3834.38-0.09-0.09
ValparaisoHorz0.270.2783.3383.330.180.18
Wright St.Horz0.230.2331.0331.03-0.09-0.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.220.2225.8125.81-0.11-0.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2153.3353.330.010.01
North FloridaASun0.200.2064.5264.520.060.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1628.5728.57-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
TennesseeSEC0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
WinthropBSth0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
SamfordSC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1327.5927.59-0.06-0.06
Illinois St.MVC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
FIUCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
TempleAmer0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Western CarolinaSC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
CampbellBSth0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.110.1135.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
PortlandWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
TulaneAmer0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.100.1075.0075.000.050.05
VCUA100.100.1074.2974.290.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1091.1891.180.080.08
HoustonAmer0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.100.1077.4277.420.050.05
NevadaMWC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
UTSACUSA0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1075.7675.760.050.05
ColgatePat0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.05-0.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.030.03
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
DrakeMVC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0752.9452.940.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0758.8258.820.010.01
LafayettePat0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
LehighPat0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.060.06100.00100.000.060.06
LibertyBSth0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
MercerSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
RadfordBSth0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0629.6329.63-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
USCP120.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
VMISC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0586.6786.670.040.04
TroySB0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0562.9662.960.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TCUB120.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0579.3179.310.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0590.6290.620.040.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArizonaP120.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
UCFAmer0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.050.0544.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
NavyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0281.2581.250.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
South DakotaSum0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
UtahP120.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0244.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.020.0231.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01