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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:155.3
Current RPI:175
Expected SOS:184
Current SOS:221
Current Record:11-10
Expected Record:15-12
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:168



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-10111.84.12%
16-11130.618.89%
15-12149.533.51%
14-13167.528.33%
13-14184.512.29%
12-15201.22.61%
11-16220.20.24%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Illinois St. (148.3)MVCA67-66L0%0.0
11-21Northern Kentucky (257.1)HorzA56-64W100%0.0
11-24Marshall (132.8)CUSAH85-61W100%0.0
11-28Southern Miss (290.4)CUSAH61-46W100%0.0
12-2Saint Louis (197.0)A10A46-60W100%0.0
12-5Indiana (31.6)B10A92-59L0%0.0
12-13Pittsburgh (39.4)ACCA72-62L0%0.0
12-20Western Carolina (247.2)SCH60-52W100%0.0
12-23Davidson (81.0)A10A81-77L0%0.0
12-28Green Bay (156.5)HorzH72-78L0%0.0
12-30East Tennessee St. (130.1)SCA75-72L0%0.0
1-2Murray St. (170.9)OVCA62-57L0%0.0
1-7Southeast Missouri St. (329.6)OVCH96-69W100%0.0
1-9Tennessee Martin (248.8)OVCH64-58W100%0.0
1-14SIU Edwardsville (309.6)OVCA67-70W100%0.0
1-16Eastern Illinois (251.7)OVCA84-82L0%0.0
1-21Tennessee Tech (107.4)OVCH81-74W100%0.0
1-24Jacksonville St. (300.8)OVCH74-78L0%0.0
1-27Austin Peay (252.5)OVCH75-65W100%0.0
1-30Eastern Kentucky (216.6)OVCA67-70W100%0.0
2-4Belmont (68.5)OVCA73-67L0%0.0
2-6Tennessee St. (176.0)OVCA0-050%0.1
2-11Eastern Kentucky (216.6)OVCH0-078%8.3
2-13Belmont (68.5)OVCH0-051%0.2
2-18Tennessee St. (176.0)OVCH0-073%6.7
2-25Tennessee Tech (107.4)OVCA0-040%-2.6
2-27Jacksonville St. (300.8)OVCA0-072%6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.1726.2156.3257.553.313.96
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.934.5052.1749.420.13-0.05
Tennessee TechOVC2.874.4570.0068.261.151.63
Tennessee St.OVC0.544.4565.0062.620.161.12
BelmontOVC2.824.4368.1869.691.031.74
Jacksonville St.OVC2.814.4322.7322.72-1.53-2.42
Eastern IllinoisOVC3.032.6435.0040.80-0.91-0.48
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.932.5719.0523.68-1.81-1.36
Tennessee MartinOVC2.872.5547.6249.68-0.14-0.02
Austin PeayOVC2.862.5436.3638.90-0.78-0.57
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.872.5415.0016.94-2.01-1.68
Murray St.OVC2.862.5445.0051.10-0.290.06
East Tennessee St.SC2.602.0855.0056.420.260.27
Green BayHorz2.672.0255.0056.370.270.26
Northern KentuckyHorz2.611.9831.5833.70-0.96-0.65
MarshallCUSA2.491.9850.0052.240.000.09
Western CarolinaSC2.561.9826.3231.02-1.21-0.75
Illinois St.MVC2.441.9550.0045.810.00-0.16
Saint LouisA102.551.9540.0034.53-0.51-0.60
DavidsonA102.561.9555.5653.750.280.15
IndianaB102.491.9281.8276.611.581.02
PittsburghACC2.501.9278.9569.231.450.74
Southern MissCUSA2.381.8835.2934.94-0.70-0.57
LipscombASun0.210.3021.7427.64-0.12-0.13
ChattanoogaSC0.220.2685.7184.560.160.18
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.2670.0068.920.060.10
ValparaisoHorz0.220.2680.9583.050.140.17
SamfordSC0.220.2340.9143.37-0.04-0.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.150.2247.6247.96-0.01-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.230.2061.9062.050.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.2022.7323.37-0.09-0.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.280.1975.0073.480.140.09
EvansvilleMVC0.220.1973.9176.040.100.10
UABCUSA0.160.1981.8278.320.100.11
Wright St.Horz0.170.1754.5555.190.020.02
DetroitHorz0.180.1645.0044.39-0.02-0.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.220.1635.2944.50-0.07-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.170.165.267.22-0.15-0.14
MercerSC0.180.1671.4370.600.080.07
Kennesaw St.ASun0.100.1622.7324.28-0.06-0.08
WoffordSC0.170.1638.1043.35-0.04-0.02
DuquesneA100.240.1666.6758.760.080.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.220.1623.8128.31-0.12-0.07
StetsonASun0.000.1425.0029.75-0.00-0.06
OaklandHorz0.180.1366.6767.310.060.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1331.8233.75-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.1333.3334.18-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.110.1350.0048.260.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.120.1354.5553.780.010.01
The CitadelSC0.120.1335.0031.39-0.03-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.180.1330.0033.57-0.07-0.04
VMISC0.170.1316.6718.97-0.12-0.08
DaytonA100.180.1385.7181.220.130.08
IowaB100.060.1381.8279.900.040.08
George MasonA100.120.1336.3635.33-0.03-0.04
VCUA100.120.1377.2776.780.070.07
Georgia TechACC0.170.1354.5552.750.020.01
Virginia TechACC0.110.1352.1747.250.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.180.1336.3642.19-0.05-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1354.5555.310.020.01
IPFWSum0.210.1373.9170.210.100.05
West VirginiaB120.160.1381.8278.720.100.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.120.1050.0056.540.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.130.1075.0072.220.070.04
North TexasCUSA0.120.1030.0029.46-0.05-0.04
OhioMAC0.050.1060.0057.960.010.02
RiceCUSA0.050.1025.0028.19-0.03-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.120.1050.0050.040.000.00
UTSACUSA0.070.1014.2913.97-0.05-0.07
AlabamaSEC0.120.1057.1452.310.020.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1040.9140.96-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.120.1035.0034.93-0.04-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.180.1050.0053.090.000.01
George WashingtonA100.120.1077.2771.670.070.04
RichmondA100.060.1052.3853.680.000.01
FIUCUSA0.170.1042.8645.93-0.02-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1026.3236.93-0.08-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.1061.9058.190.030.02
Missouri St.MVC0.160.1040.9138.03-0.03-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.110.104.557.91-0.10-0.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1030.0029.98-0.04-0.04
St. BonaventureA100.060.0970.0069.070.030.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0981.8277.440.030.05
LouisvilleACC0.120.0981.8277.490.070.05
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0954.5561.950.010.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.110.0975.0071.280.050.04
IllinoisB100.110.0947.8344.51-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.100.0972.7369.690.050.04
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0976.1979.640.030.05
James MadisonCAA0.160.0969.5768.670.060.03
WisconsinB100.160.0960.8755.900.030.01
MarylandB100.100.0986.9681.770.080.06
Air ForceMWC0.060.0742.8635.05-0.01-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0750.0054.850.000.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0716.6720.71-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.110.0772.7368.010.050.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0731.8234.36-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.120.0759.0958.550.020.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0728.5728.88-0.02-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0717.3921.76-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0763.6468.210.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0725.0029.52-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.110.0727.7829.23-0.05-0.03
ToledoMAC0.120.0757.1457.560.020.01
TroySB0.120.0720.0023.76-0.07-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0715.0015.65-0.08-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0761.9059.930.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0645.0041.83-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.060.0686.3680.660.050.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.120.0663.6465.480.030.02
MichiganB100.110.0672.7367.980.050.02
FordhamA100.000.0657.8954.300.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0621.0520.91-0.00-0.04
MassachusettsA100.120.0642.8639.84-0.02-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0654.5555.990.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0626.3233.83-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0652.1750.240.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0669.5773.030.020.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0650.0050.510.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0647.6247.86-0.00-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0665.2256.530.020.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0666.6762.710.020.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.0673.6870.400.050.03
WinthropBSth0.050.0665.0063.370.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0681.8281.010.070.04
NorthwesternB100.110.0666.6763.480.040.02
North FloridaASun0.110.0668.1869.350.040.02
AkronMAC0.110.0681.8279.750.070.04
DukeACC0.050.0672.7369.920.020.02
Notre DameACC0.110.0668.1863.720.040.02
PurdueB100.060.0682.6178.230.040.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0645.4542.14-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.068.709.77-0.04-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0615.7922.51-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.100.0622.7324.85-0.06-0.03
LongwoodBSth0.050.0619.0522.35-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0640.9139.22-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0645.0043.19-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0652.1754.140.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0631.5833.51-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0647.6252.96-0.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0615.7916.39-0.03-0.04
MinnesotaB100.100.0626.0927.81-0.05-0.03
NebraskaB100.050.0652.1751.560.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0355.0048.870.01-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0360.0056.080.010.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0361.1158.300.010.01
MississippiSEC0.060.0363.6456.050.020.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0359.0959.470.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0338.1047.51-0.01-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0326.0930.33-0.03-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0361.9060.410.020.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0359.0958.100.010.01
TulaneAmer0.070.0333.3332.41-0.02-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0368.4271.820.020.01
XavierBE0.060.0390.9184.430.050.02
ButlerBE0.050.0368.1866.490.020.01
CaliforniaP120.060.0363.6461.810.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0330.0030.38-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0373.9173.090.030.02
High PointBSth0.060.0357.8961.480.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0333.3339.27-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0385.7176.030.040.02
UCFAmer0.060.0355.0047.170.01-0.00
USCP120.050.0378.2673.130.030.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0328.5734.73-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0331.8226.61-0.02-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0331.5836.16-0.02-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0316.6724.27-0.04-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.060.0325.0029.29-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0363.6462.340.020.01
CornellIvy0.060.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0368.1863.250.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0366.6761.680.020.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0327.2732.84-0.03-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0380.9575.640.000.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0342.8641.75-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0350.0045.730.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0321.0524.61-0.03-0.02
StanfordP120.060.0352.6347.690.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.050.0361.9054.010.010.00
UMKCWAC0.050.0330.0034.84-0.02-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0359.0962.730.010.01
VillanovaBE0.060.0386.3685.330.040.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0381.8276.020.000.02
HartfordAE0.060.0326.0926.47-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0355.5650.840.010.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0359.0955.550.010.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0371.4370.810.020.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0376.1976.220.030.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0334.7841.59-0.02-0.01
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0360.8759.050.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0318.7533.17-0.03-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0382.6181.380.000.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.120.010.00
Penn St.B100.000.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.050.0322.7320.68-0.03-0.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0327.2724.41-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.050.0352.3857.440.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0340.9140.46-0.01-0.01