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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:141.0
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:208
Current SOS:208
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:114
Expected OOC SOS:138



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13141.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12East Tennessee St. (206.0)ASunA63-71W100%0.0
11-15Xavier (47.0)BEA79-56L0%0.0
11-17Marshall (276.0)CUSAH102-94W100%0.0
11-19Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunA61-74W100%0.0
11-22UCLA (14.0)P12A81-70L0%0.0
11-24Nevada (137.0)MWCA58-63W100%0.0
11-28Chattanooga (243.0)SCN75-88W100%0.0
11-29Gardner Webb (241.0)BSthN86-82L0%0.0
12-2Wright St. (173.0)HorzH74-69W100%0.0
12-4Southern Miss (33.0)CUSAA74-60L0%0.0
12-15Bowling Green (194.0)MACH61-67L0%0.0
12-19South Dakota (255.0)SumH120-83W100%0.0
12-23Tennessee (42.0)SECA82-67L0%0.0
1-2SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA63-70W100%0.0
1-4Eastern Illinois (291.0)OVCA77-85W100%0.0
1-11Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCH65-76L0%0.0
1-16Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH80-67W100%0.0
1-18Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCH82-75W100%0.0
1-23Belmont (57.0)OVCA80-66L0%0.0
1-25Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCA74-80W100%0.0
1-29Belmont (57.0)OVCH73-76L0%0.0
2-1Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH65-54W100%0.0
2-8Eastern Kentucky (97.0)OVCA79-86W100%0.0
2-13Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA67-69W100%0.0
2-15Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA53-79W100%0.0
2-19Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH90-88W100%0.0
2-22Murray St. (142.0)OVCA69-58L0%0.0
2-27Tennessee St. (300.0)OVCH68-70L0%0.0
3-1Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH84-91L0%0.0
3-6Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCN76-61W100%0.0
3-7Belmont (57.0)OVCN86-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC26.3026.3059.8759.875.195.19
Tennessee TechOVC5.565.5650.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC5.545.5468.9768.972.102.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC4.094.0972.4172.411.831.83
Tennessee St.OVC3.943.9411.1111.11-3.07-3.07
Jacksonville St.OVC3.923.9229.6329.63-1.60-1.60
Southeast Missouri St.OVC2.322.3255.1755.170.240.24
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.292.2932.1432.14-0.82-0.82
Eastern IllinoisOVC2.262.2633.3333.33-0.75-0.75
Austin PeayOVC2.262.2637.0437.04-0.59-0.59
Murray St.OVC2.262.2657.6957.690.350.35
Tennessee MartinOVC2.242.2421.4321.43-1.28-1.28
East Tennessee St.ASun1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
TennesseeSEC1.801.8061.2961.290.410.41
Northern KentuckyASun1.751.7531.0331.03-0.66-0.66
ChattanoogaSC1.741.7453.5753.570.120.12
XavierBE1.721.7261.2961.290.390.39
Wright St.Horz1.671.6758.0658.060.270.27
UCLAP121.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
NevadaMWC1.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA1.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
Bowling GreenMAC1.661.6633.3333.33-0.55-0.55
Southern MissCUSA1.641.6480.0080.000.980.98
Gardner WebbBSth1.641.6448.2848.28-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum1.611.6134.6234.62-0.50-0.50
LipscombASun0.500.5048.2848.28-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.300.3067.7467.740.110.11
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
Central MichiganMAC0.190.1927.5927.59-0.09-0.09
AuburnSEC0.190.1946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1962.0762.070.040.04
USC UpstateASun0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.180.1813.7913.79-0.13-0.13
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
IUPUISum0.170.1710.3410.34-0.13-0.13
DenverSum0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
Miami OHMAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
WyomingMWC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1457.1457.140.020.02
PresbyterianBSth0.130.1313.3313.33-0.10-0.10
TulaneCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
KentuckySEC0.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
VCUA100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
MissouriSEC0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Chicago St.WAC0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UICHorz0.110.1113.7913.79-0.08-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1125.8125.81-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
MercerASun0.100.1074.1974.190.050.05
North FloridaASun0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
FIUCUSA0.100.1046.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.100.1054.8454.840.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
DePaulBE0.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0925.9325.93-0.04-0.04
Southern IllinoisMVC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0978.5778.570.050.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.080.0820.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Florida St.ACC0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
FurmanSC0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.080.08100.00100.000.080.08
Saint LouisA100.080.0880.6580.650.050.05
Air ForceMWC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
The CitadelSC0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
UMKCWAC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
VMIBSth0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
WinthropBSth0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
AkronMAC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
WisconsinB100.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
CreightonBE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0894.1294.120.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0830.3030.30-0.03-0.03
Holy CrossPat0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MarquetteBE0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
PurdueB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.060.0619.2319.23-0.03-0.03
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.050.0564.2964.290.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UTSACUSA0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0514.8114.81-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0593.1093.100.040.04
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
DavidsonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
IowaB100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0267.8667.860.010.01
WashingtonP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01