Morehead St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	187.2
Current RPI:	172
Expected SOS:	188
Current SOS:	160
Current Record:	10-12
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	6-5
Expected Conf Record:	9-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	2.27%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-4
Current OOC Record:	4-7
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	159
Expected OOC SOS:	99

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	137.4	1.07%
15-13	153.4	10.09%
14-14	172.3	27.07%
13-15	191.3	35.58%
12-16	208.6	20.93%
11-17	225.5	4.89%
10-18	239.8	0.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	North Carolina St. (60.4)	ACC	A	91-61	L	0%	0.0
11-15	College of Charleston (129.6)	SC	A	72-57	L	0%	0.0
11-22	West Virginia (28.4)	BE	N	83-48	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Princeton (116.3)	Ivy	N	68-56	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Bucknell (70.7)	Pat	A	54-50	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Kent St. (84.6)	MAC	A	83-63	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Illinois St. (109.6)	MVC	H	73-78	L	0%	0.0
12-10	South Dakota (281.9)	Sum	H	56-57	L	0%	0.0
12-19	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	45-64	W	100%	0.0
12-23	Ball St. (220.5)	MAC	H	62-54	W	100%	0.0
12-28	Southeast Missouri St. (241.0)	OVC	A	67-51	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	H	68-64	W	100%	0.0
1-5	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	A	55-63	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	A	66-55	L	0%	0.0
1-11	Tennessee St. (156.7)	OVC	A	77-72	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Eastern Kentucky (207.5)	OVC	H	57-54	W	100%	0.0
1-18	Murray St. (30.8)	OVC	H	60-66	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Tennessee Martin (322.4)	OVC	H	62-56	W	100%	0.0
1-24	Norfolk St. (130.0)	MEAC	A	69-75	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Tennessee Tech (136.2)	OVC	H	56-50	W	100%	0.0
2-2	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	A	61-53	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	A	55-56	W	100%	0.0
2-8	Jacksonville St. (250.3)	OVC	H	0-0		64%	3.9
2-11	Eastern Kentucky (207.5)	OVC	A	0-0		42%	-2.1
2-15	Austin Peay (203.1)	OVC	A	0-0		35%	-4.3
2-18	Bowling Green (154.3)	MAC	A	0-0		16%	-10.8
2-23	Eastern Illinois (293.1)	OVC	H	0-0		78%	8.4
2-25	SIU Edwardsville (304.3)	OVC	H	0-0		83%	10.4

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Morehead St.	OVC	26.23	26.27	48.98	49.94	-0.54	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	3.03	4.37	22.22	27.13	-1.68	-2.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	2.93	4.35	52.17	53.46	0.13	0.30
Tennessee Tech	OVC	5.11	4.32	61.90	60.61	1.22	0.92
Jacksonville St.	OVC	2.95	4.25	36.36	40.00	-0.80	-0.85
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.80	4.25	35.00	36.43	-0.84	-1.15
Austin Peay	OVC	2.89	4.25	33.33	35.59	-0.96	-1.23
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.84	2.59	45.00	45.16	-0.28	-0.25
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.95	2.59	4.55	10.08	-2.68	-2.07
Tennessee St.	OVC	2.87	2.58	54.55	51.32	0.26	0.07
Murray St.	OVC	2.83	2.55	100.00	94.36	2.83	2.27
Ball St.	MAC	2.38	1.95	57.89	59.55	0.38	0.37
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	1.94	47.62	47.56	-0.00	-0.09
Kent St.	MAC	2.32	1.94	70.00	67.95	0.93	0.70
Illinois St.	MVC	2.38	1.89	60.87	60.77	0.52	0.41
West Virginia	BE	2.43	1.88	65.22	64.85	0.74	0.56
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.37	1.88	72.73	72.94	1.08	0.86
Bucknell	Pat	2.38	1.85	72.73	74.14	1.08	0.89
Princeton	Ivy	2.37	1.85	50.00	54.86	0.00	0.18
North Carolina St.	ACC	2.33	1.82	69.57	63.34	0.91	0.49
Binghamton	AE	2.32	1.82	0.00	4.18	-2.32	-1.66
College of Charleston	SC	2.27	1.82	56.52	58.54	0.30	0.31
South Dakota	Sum	2.27	1.79	22.22	25.85	-1.26	-0.86
Lipscomb	ASun	0.36	0.29	43.48	43.89	-0.05	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.17	0.26	5.26	7.29	-0.15	-0.22
Miami OH	MAC	0.17	0.22	30.00	34.18	-0.07	-0.07
Maine	AE	0.21	0.19	47.62	48.01	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.26	0.19	37.50	38.36	-0.06	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.19	68.42	66.51	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.16	0.19	81.82	77.18	0.10	0.10
Akron	MAC	0.16	0.18	68.18	67.98	0.06	0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.19	0.18	38.89	41.49	-0.04	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.19	0.18	83.33	84.76	0.13	0.13
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.16	33.33	32.18	-0.04	-0.06
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.16	34.78	32.10	-0.05	-0.06
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.21	0.16	80.77	80.77	0.13	0.10
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	56.52	54.28	0.02	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	28.57	34.11	-0.07	-0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.16	0.16	38.10	40.84	-0.04	-0.03
Belmont	ASun	0.14	0.15	70.83	73.74	0.06	0.07
Miami FL	ACC	0.19	0.15	66.67	63.50	0.06	0.04
Western Illinois	Sum	0.17	0.14	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.17	0.14	34.78	35.53	-0.05	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.10	0.13	9.09	12.82	-0.09	-0.10
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.13	34.78	37.18	-0.03	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.13	27.78	29.77	-0.07	-0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.21	0.13	23.81	33.67	-0.11	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.15	0.13	68.18	68.98	0.06	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.10	0.13	56.52	56.80	0.01	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.16	0.13	36.84	41.47	-0.04	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.13	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.13	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.13	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.15	0.12	36.36	40.96	-0.04	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.12	47.83	47.08	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.10	0.12	73.91	74.94	0.05	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.12	78.26	72.28	0.08	0.05
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.12	42.86	43.11	-0.01	-0.02
Elon	SC	0.20	0.12	52.38	49.77	0.01	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.20	0.12	50.00	46.87	0.00	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.17	0.10	34.78	35.19	-0.05	-0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.10	17.39	19.76	-0.11	-0.06
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.10	69.57	61.84	0.04	0.02
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.10	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.11	0.10	34.78	34.46	-0.03	-0.03
UAB	CUSA	0.16	0.10	40.91	39.81	-0.03	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.09	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.09	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.12	0.09	22.73	24.64	-0.06	-0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.10	0.09	8.33	10.90	-0.08	-0.07
Lamar	Slnd	0.15	0.09	61.90	67.29	0.04	0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.10	0.09	69.57	71.58	0.04	0.04
Appalachian St.	SC	0.15	0.09	33.33	37.16	-0.05	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.05	0.09	68.42	68.62	0.02	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.16	0.09	79.17	78.05	0.09	0.05
Lafayette	Pat	0.11	0.09	43.48	42.98	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.09	24.00	24.86	-0.05	-0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.09	69.57	65.37	0.04	0.03
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.09	59.09	59.78	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.15	0.09	40.91	41.68	-0.03	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.15	0.09	50.00	53.83	0.00	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.09	30.43	29.49	-0.04	-0.04
Longwood	ind	0.05	0.09	28.57	25.79	-0.02	-0.04
Navy	Pat	0.10	0.09	9.52	13.17	-0.08	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.10	0.09	40.91	42.03	-0.02	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.10	0.09	80.00	76.67	0.06	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	42.11	45.89	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.09	47.83	48.88	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.09	34.78	32.05	-0.01	-0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.09	86.96	83.30	0.07	0.06
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.09	79.17	74.20	0.06	0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.09	34.78	37.27	-0.03	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	45.45	44.56	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.14	0.09	95.83	92.00	0.13	0.07
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.09	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.07	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.07	73.91	75.47	0.03	0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.12	0.07	45.45	44.27	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.07	25.00	28.48	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.00	0.07	28.57	29.05	-0.00	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.07	18.18	19.91	-0.03	-0.04
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.07	63.64	57.79	0.01	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.06	91.67	87.92	0.09	0.05
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.06	27.78	29.51	-0.02	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.06	28.57	35.72	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.06	0.06	27.27	23.78	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	55.00	54.81	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.10	0.06	50.00	52.04	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.00	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.00	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.10	0.06	31.82	32.81	-0.04	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.06	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.06	0.06	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.06	47.62	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.06	61.90	58.61	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.06	80.00	76.71	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	72.22	63.23	0.03	0.02
Albany	AE	0.05	0.06	57.69	58.54	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.06	65.22	63.79	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.06	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	49.86	-0.02	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.06	20.83	22.81	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.06	21.74	25.63	-0.03	-0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.06	27.27	27.33	-0.02	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.06	19.05	19.39	-0.06	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.05	0.06	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.06	33.33	37.75	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.10	0.06	20.83	23.73	-0.06	-0.03
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.06	61.54	63.84	0.01	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.06	12.50	13.42	-0.04	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.06	34.78	34.75	-0.01	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	71.57	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.06	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.10	0.06	76.00	72.48	0.05	0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.06	21.05	24.33	-0.06	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.06	69.57	65.88	0.04	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	56.52	55.22	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.05	0.06	75.00	74.62	0.02	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.09	0.06	84.00	82.62	0.06	0.04
Davidson	SC	0.05	0.06	77.27	77.37	0.03	0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.06	52.17	50.01	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.09	0.06	45.45	47.20	-0.01	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.06	62.50	61.43	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.06	9.52	11.47	-0.04	-0.05
Wichita St.	MVC	0.05	0.06	82.61	80.50	0.03	0.04
Wofford	SC	0.09	0.06	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.00	0.06	52.38	53.29	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.06	34.78	33.38	-0.01	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.06	47.83	45.51	-0.00	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.06	68.18	67.72	0.03	0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.06	30.43	26.42	-0.04	-0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.06	39.13	42.16	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.00	0.06	65.22	62.67	0.00	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.06	62.50	59.52	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.06	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.04	40.91	44.29	-0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.04	50.00	44.98	0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	22.22	27.56	-0.00	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.04	76.19	70.71	0.03	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.03	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.03	85.71	82.22	0.04	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.00	0.03	90.91	87.78	0.00	0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.03	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	64.49	0.02	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	33.22	-0.02	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.03	38.10	37.80	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.03	16.67	26.81	-0.03	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.03	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.06	0.03	50.00	50.81	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.03	52.17	58.49	0.00	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.03	40.00	39.70	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.03	43.48	45.03	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.03	40.91	39.60	-0.01	-0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.03	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.03	82.61	84.58	0.04	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.03	82.61	81.41	0.04	0.02
Florida International	SB	0.00	0.03	33.33	37.11	-0.00	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.03	40.91	34.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.03	45.45	41.17	-0.00	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.03	32.00	35.39	-0.02	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.03	40.00	40.17	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.03	70.83	68.83	0.02	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.06	0.02	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.03	54.17	54.76	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.05	0.03	78.26	74.29	0.03	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.03	68.00	69.08	0.02	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.03	34.78	33.44	-0.02	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.00	0.03	77.27	73.50	0.00	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.03	70.83	62.75	0.02	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.03	31.82	34.86	-0.00	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.00	0.03	8.70	13.12	-0.00	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.03	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	54.55	58.39	0.00	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	14.29	16.80	-0.04	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.03	56.52	55.97	0.01	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.03	21.74	22.75	-0.03	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.00	0.02
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.05	0.03	76.19	75.98	0.03	0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.05	0.03	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.00	0.03	57.14	60.72	0.00	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	Horz	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.55	0.00	0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.03	43.48	44.26	-0.01	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.55	0.02	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.03	55.00	60.35	0.00	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.05	-0.02	-0.01
Fresno St.	WAC	0.05	0.03	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.65	0.02	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.12	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.03	90.91	83.90	0.04	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.03	57.69	58.27	0.01	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	62.35	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.00	0.03	47.83	42.19	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	82.61	79.93	0.00	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.03	80.95	77.45	0.03	0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.02	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.03	73.91	68.41	0.02	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.05	0.03	60.87	53.44	0.01	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.03	52.00	48.78	0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	63.65	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.00	0.03	54.55	48.54	0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.03	43.48	40.24	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	68.33	0.02	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.03	62.50	62.20	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.03	17.39	20.75	-0.03	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.03	45.83	45.52	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.02