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Through games of Dec 21, 2014.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:251.0
Current RPI:291
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:213
Current Record:2-10
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:203



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-12140.70.07%
16-13155.60.50%
15-14174.61.82%
14-15192.65.23%
13-16211.511.28%
12-17231.217.48%
11-18250.421.56%
10-19268.718.47%
9-20284.413.31%
8-21298.46.80%
7-22310.12.58%
6-23318.80.78%
5-24325.70.09%
4-25334.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14UNLV (138.0)MWCA60-59L0%0.0
11-19Cincinnati (66.5)AmerA69-61L0%0.0
11-21Louisiana Tech (118.5)CUSAA73-64L0%0.0
11-22Presbyterian (340.7)BSthN69-49W100%0.0
11-23American (98.2)PatN51-46L0%0.0
11-26Marshall (232.1)CUSAA68-77W100%0.0
12-1East Tennessee St. (129.5)SCH59-63L0%0.0
12-4UAB (246.6)CUSAA58-48L0%0.0
12-6Oakland (230.4)HorzH68-70L0%0.0
12-13Ohio St. (14.3)B10A87-71L0%0.0
12-17Green Bay (47.8)HorzA66-50L0%0.0
12-19Northern Kentucky (213.9)ASunH60-83L0%0.0
12-29Central Arkansas (340.1)SlndA0-073%7.1
1-3Murray St. (144.7)OVCH0-049%-0.4
1-8Southeast Missouri St. (250.5)OVCA0-036%-4.0
1-10Tennessee Martin (147.8)OVCA0-023%-8.7
1-15SIU Edwardsville (326.2)OVCH0-083%11.0
1-17Eastern Illinois (239.9)OVCH0-069%5.9
1-22Tennessee Tech (200.5)OVCA0-033%-5.0
1-24Jacksonville St. (271.5)OVCA0-055%1.5
1-28Austin Peay (306.5)OVCA0-052%0.6
1-31Eastern Kentucky (113.1)OVCH0-036%-4.1
2-5Tennessee St. (331.3)OVCH0-088%13.7
2-7Belmont (115.6)OVCH0-045%-1.5
2-11Eastern Kentucky (113.1)OVCA0-014%-12.6
2-14Belmont (115.6)OVCA0-019%-10.1
2-19Tennessee St. (331.3)OVCA0-067%5.2
2-26Tennessee Tech (200.5)OVCH0-062%3.5
2-28Jacksonville St. (271.5)OVCH0-081%10.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC27.6626.1921.4340.09-15.80-5.19
Jacksonville St.OVC0.234.1650.0037.910.00-1.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.004.1644.4448.82-0.00-0.10
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.304.1650.0068.350.001.53
Tennessee St.OVC0.004.130.0013.90-0.00-2.98
BelmontOVC0.004.1363.6464.700.001.21
Tennessee MartinOVC0.492.4166.6764.420.160.70
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.3840.0045.37-0.00-0.22
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.212.3840.0043.35-0.04-0.32
Austin PeayOVC0.002.3520.0028.36-0.00-1.02
Murray St.OVC0.002.3560.0065.330.000.72
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.3412.5027.36-0.00-1.06
Louisiana TechCUSA4.621.8770.0066.451.850.62
East Tennessee St.SC4.171.8566.6761.931.390.44
MarshallCUSA4.171.8425.0037.86-2.08-0.45
PresbyterianBSth4.551.810.009.03-4.55-1.49
UABCUSA4.171.8122.2233.54-2.31-0.60
OaklandHorz4.171.7920.0029.84-2.50-0.72
AmericanPat4.621.7860.0062.920.920.46
Green BayHorz4.171.7875.0077.502.080.98
Central ArkansasSlnd0.001.760.0015.67-0.00-1.21
CincinnatiAmer4.171.7666.6763.751.390.48
Northern KentuckyASun4.171.7625.0041.08-2.08-0.31
Ohio St.B104.171.7280.0081.552.501.09
UNLVMWC4.171.7262.5048.301.04-0.06
LipscombASun0.000.3730.0039.53-0.00-0.08
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.210.3254.5548.910.02-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.2760.0057.740.000.04
ValparaisoHorz0.300.2581.8272.960.190.11
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.2554.5545.090.00-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.230.2440.0051.94-0.050.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2450.0051.800.000.01
North FloridaASun0.000.2250.0057.910.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.2120.0045.83-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.2142.8648.12-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.230.1940.0049.35-0.05-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1630.0030.65-0.00-0.06
SamfordSC0.450.1638.4634.30-0.10-0.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1618.1820.68-0.00-0.09
WinthropBSth0.300.1625.0044.51-0.15-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.1645.4543.17-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.230.1518.1827.26-0.15-0.07
TennesseeSEC0.000.1555.5646.470.00-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.510.1512.5039.50-0.38-0.03
NebraskaB100.440.1566.6744.010.15-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.190.1550.0051.710.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.1540.0047.08-0.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1437.5027.75-0.00-0.06
TempleAmer0.610.1463.6456.720.170.02
CampbellBSth0.190.1325.0043.91-0.09-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.230.1280.0073.040.140.06
DetroitHorz0.000.1240.0047.83-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.1210.0018.51-0.00-0.08
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1233.3328.70-0.00-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0028.78-0.00-0.05
VCUA100.210.1272.7376.010.090.06
WisconsinB100.670.1290.9188.760.550.09
TulaneAmer0.000.1288.8956.070.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.420.12100.0084.350.420.08
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0055.800.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1254.5564.030.000.03
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1290.0082.040.000.07
UTEPCUSA0.000.1263.6472.270.000.05
UTSACUSA0.000.1237.5035.62-0.00-0.03
MemphisAmer0.000.1260.0061.850.000.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.100.0011.31-0.19-0.07
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.1077.7869.870.130.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.1020.0025.91-0.00-0.05
Miami FLACC0.230.1081.8266.060.150.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.560.1020.0034.83-0.33-0.03
WoffordSC0.260.1077.7875.500.140.05
PortlandWCC0.230.0970.0050.570.090.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0942.8649.17-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0962.5071.550.000.04
Georgia St.SB0.420.0966.6771.560.140.04
Western CarolinaSC0.490.0927.2743.96-0.22-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.0972.7368.580.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0914.2930.32-0.00-0.04
High PointBSth0.190.0966.6761.820.060.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.0950.0071.160.000.04
Illinois St.MVC0.210.0960.0061.400.040.02
Arkansas St.SB0.230.0942.8649.26-0.03-0.00
MississippiSEC0.210.0970.0052.340.080.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.190.090.0018.31-0.19-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.190.0916.6739.50-0.13-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.230.0955.5673.940.030.04
East CarolinaAmer0.230.0933.3338.20-0.08-0.02
IllinoisB100.190.0975.0065.050.090.03
NevadaMWC0.000.0911.1125.40-0.00-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.000.0972.7361.760.000.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0950.0041.130.00-0.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0916.6726.53-0.00-0.04
HoustonAmer0.000.0962.5041.050.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.230.0991.6755.080.190.01
ColgatePat0.190.0920.0043.19-0.11-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.210.0972.7372.880.090.04
BYUWCC0.000.0670.0068.400.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0013.95-0.00-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.93-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.230.0637.5053.02-0.060.00
IUPUISum0.000.0627.2728.77-0.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0096.240.000.06
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.29-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0644.4443.16-0.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0633.3337.25-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0660.0062.090.000.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0627.2735.54-0.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.0610.0026.86-0.00-0.03
The CitadelSC0.000.0614.2931.52-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0687.5067.460.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.0663.6467.200.000.02
VMISC0.000.0633.3338.75-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.230.0618.1819.54-0.15-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0630.0029.93-0.00-0.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.230.0637.5035.77-0.06-0.02
CreightonBE0.000.0669.2349.070.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.190.0663.6461.500.050.01
West VirginiaB120.460.0690.9170.260.380.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0670.0052.050.000.00
DenverSum0.000.0641.6751.30-0.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0640.0037.46-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0642.8637.93-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0620.0040.46-0.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0663.6440.160.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.190.060.0034.55-0.19-0.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0666.6778.090.000.03
TroySB0.000.0642.8640.42-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.190.0660.0049.390.04-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.420.060.0023.75-0.42-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.0663.6442.700.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.190.0640.0034.38-0.04-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0628.5761.90-0.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0048.150.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0620.0044.35-0.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0620.0046.45-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0637.5056.99-0.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0636.3647.95-0.00-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0630.0042.78-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.06100.0068.320.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0666.6758.480.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0089.960.000.05
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.750.000.02
ArizonaP120.190.06100.0082.820.190.04
MarylandB100.000.0691.6772.610.000.03
Michigan St.B100.190.0666.6766.950.060.02
ArmyPat0.000.0680.0067.350.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0677.7872.900.000.03
Boston UniversityPat0.000.0630.0041.58-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0037.24-0.00-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.000.0650.0049.140.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.400.0616.6743.50-0.27-0.01
LafayettePat0.000.0666.6768.370.000.02
LehighPat0.000.0644.4455.25-0.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0630.0028.28-0.00-0.02
NavyPat0.000.0620.0022.49-0.00-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.006.54-0.00-0.05
Utah St.MWC0.000.0654.5548.690.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.0680.0073.560.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.190.0672.7374.520.090.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0675.0061.160.000.01
South FloridaAmer0.210.0640.0041.10-0.04-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.400.0655.5665.160.040.02
Stony BrookAE0.210.0640.0055.83-0.040.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0650.0058.340.000.01
IndianaB100.000.0681.8263.040.000.01
IowaB100.000.0666.6759.170.000.01
MichiganB100.000.0650.0040.340.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.0666.6759.240.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.960.000.03
UCFAmer0.000.0655.5635.910.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.650.000.01
IPFWSum0.000.0350.0054.440.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0350.0042.750.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0363.6436.240.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0380.0072.430.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0325.0037.11-0.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0318.1830.67-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.220.000.01
DukeACC0.260.03100.0086.740.260.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.0360.0076.800.050.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0337.5049.96-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0325.0023.65-0.00-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.0338.4644.44-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0340.0032.37-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.60-0.00-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.000.0354.5557.750.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0360.0038.340.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0026.25-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0314.2914.63-0.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.0360.0056.450.000.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0360.0043.870.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.190.0375.0066.160.090.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0316.6736.42-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0380.0076.780.000.02
Iowa St.B120.190.0390.0065.820.150.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2936.23-0.00-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0350.0055.090.000.00
PittsburghACC0.190.0370.0052.280.080.00
South CarolinaSEC0.230.0366.6765.440.080.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0333.3334.44-0.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.190.0355.5652.210.020.00
AlbanyAE0.230.0340.0054.66-0.050.00
Arizona St.P120.230.0354.5549.050.02-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0078.190.000.02
ColumbiaIvy0.190.0366.6769.260.060.01
FloridaSEC0.210.0363.6464.970.060.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0327.2729.51-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0390.0071.080.000.01
La SalleA100.190.0354.5553.370.020.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.190.0337.5049.56-0.05-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.210.0328.5738.37-0.09-0.01
LSUSEC0.210.0380.0063.750.120.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.190.0333.3340.88-0.06-0.01
South DakotaSum0.230.0333.3343.01-0.08-0.00
StanfordP120.230.0366.6758.210.080.00
SyracuseACC0.190.0360.0057.780.040.00
UCLAP120.210.0366.6754.590.070.00
UtahP120.230.0380.0080.490.140.02
James MadisonCAA0.190.0363.6456.310.050.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.63-0.00-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0380.0068.200.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0354.5532.610.00-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.0355.5660.570.020.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0056.010.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.190.0350.0050.260.000.00
WagnerNEC0.000.0312.5031.01-0.00-0.01