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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Morehead St.

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:225.6
Current RPI:278
Expected SOS:165
Current SOS:162
Current Record:1-5
Expected Record:10-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:1-5
Expected OOC Record:3-8
Expected OOC RPI:262
Expected OOC SOS:170



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-749.00.01%
19-868.00.01%
18-979.80.05%
17-1094.60.23%
16-11111.50.71%
15-12131.81.93%
14-13150.24.36%
13-14171.99.28%
12-15193.114.08%
11-16214.517.46%
10-17235.718.39%
9-18256.814.97%
8-19275.410.06%
7-20292.65.40%
6-21308.12.09%
5-22317.40.73%
4-23326.10.17%
3-24330.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Lipscomb (293.7)ASunH89-75W100%0.0
11-16Marshall (112.7)CUSAA85-77L0%0.0
11-19Evansville (187.7)MVCA69-56L0%0.0
11-25Pittsburgh (69.2)ACCA76-63L0%0.0
11-30Northern Kentucky (166.0)HorzH79-84L0%0.0
12-3Purdue (28.0)B10A90-56L0%0.0
12-10Lipscomb (293.7)ASunA0-050%0.1
12-13Eastern Washington (199.9)BSkyA0-041%-2.7
12-17East Tennessee St. (70.7)SCH0-021%-9.5
12-19Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndH0-074%7.8
12-22Mississippi St. (152.0)SECA0-021%-9.7
12-31Tennessee Martin (172.9)OVCA0-039%-3.4
1-5Eastern Illinois (230.7)OVCH0-058%2.4
1-7SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCH0-068%5.7
1-12Belmont (106.9)OVCH0-037%-3.9
1-14Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCH0-040%-3.1
1-19Austin Peay (231.2)OVCA0-047%-0.8
1-21Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCH0-053%0.9
1-26Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCA0-056%1.8
1-28Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCA0-038%-3.6
2-4Southeast Missouri St. (267.5)OVCA0-049%-0.3
2-8Murray St. (137.0)OVCH0-040%-2.9
2-11Eastern Kentucky (157.0)OVCA0-033%-5.4
2-16Tennessee St. (95.6)OVCA0-022%-9.4
2-18Belmont (106.9)OVCA0-020%-10.2
2-23Tennessee Tech (305.9)OVCH0-075%8.1
2-25Jacksonville St. (187.0)OVCH0-059%2.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Morehead St.OVC28.3526.2713.6439.70-20.62-5.41
Tennessee TechOVC0.524.5625.0027.01-0.26-2.10
BelmontOVC0.524.5550.0063.780.001.26
Tennessee St.OVC0.524.4985.7170.110.371.81
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.604.4650.0050.370.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.004.4350.0046.040.00-0.35
LipscombASun8.334.0714.2933.67-5.95-1.33
Austin PeayOVC0.602.6433.3336.15-0.20-0.73
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.002.5742.8638.18-0.00-0.61
Murray St.OVC0.002.5450.0061.290.000.57
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.002.5457.1450.390.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.002.5175.0054.440.000.22
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.002.5150.0042.380.00-0.38
Northern KentuckyHorz8.331.9850.0052.340.000.09
MarshallCUSA8.331.9566.6753.302.780.13
EvansvilleMVC8.331.9233.3342.73-2.78-0.28
Central ArkansasSlnd0.001.8812.5030.54-0.00-0.73
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.001.8871.4355.020.000.19
Mississippi St.SEC0.001.8875.0046.960.00-0.11
East Tennessee St.SC0.001.8883.3379.890.001.13
PittsburghACC8.331.8871.4347.483.57-0.09
PurdueB108.331.8571.4374.523.570.91
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.2937.5035.09-0.00-0.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.600.2687.5076.230.450.14
TennesseeSEC0.000.2240.0041.12-0.00-0.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.2025.0030.23-0.00-0.08
Green BayHorz0.000.2042.8651.95-0.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.2012.5023.75-0.00-0.10
JacksonvilleASun0.000.2057.1459.280.000.04
USC UpstateASun0.000.2044.4441.30-0.00-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1928.5731.44-0.00-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1960.0058.590.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1971.4373.040.000.09
Norfolk St.MEAC0.600.190.0035.95-0.60-0.05
LouisvilleACC1.120.1987.5075.590.840.09
VanderbiltSEC0.000.1750.0046.240.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.1728.5728.24-0.00-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1628.5732.62-0.00-0.06
NJITASun0.520.1650.0049.780.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1657.1449.130.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.160.0013.46-0.00-0.12
IndianaB100.000.1687.5074.490.000.08
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1312.5033.65-0.00-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1357.1471.940.000.06
North FloridaASun0.000.1312.5034.79-0.00-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.000.130.0016.68-0.00-0.09
MissouriSEC0.000.1357.1442.530.00-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.1342.8627.96-0.00-0.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1362.5052.330.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.130.0021.22-0.00-0.07
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1360.0067.760.000.05
Miami OHMAC0.600.1342.8630.92-0.09-0.05
FurmanSC0.000.1333.3356.24-0.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.000.1312.5029.15-0.00-0.05
SamfordSC0.000.1362.5056.520.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.600.1383.3377.100.400.07
MississippiSEC0.000.1375.0048.500.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.520.1285.7157.450.370.02
Georgia St.SB0.520.1250.0060.620.000.03
MarylandB100.520.1287.5059.330.390.02
Michigan St.B100.000.1255.5658.610.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.1037.5044.39-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.1087.5075.240.000.05
DukeACC0.000.1088.8978.400.000.06
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1075.0051.040.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1042.8645.44-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1042.8650.11-0.000.00
FordhamA100.520.1050.0041.310.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.520.1087.5082.360.390.06
IUPUISum0.000.1037.5051.64-0.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.100.0034.81-0.00-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.000.1062.5051.790.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1016.6730.34-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0975.0066.370.000.03
IllinoisB100.600.0962.5050.710.150.00
OhioMAC0.600.0983.3371.480.400.04
Western CarolinaSC0.600.0928.5723.12-0.26-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.0957.1436.010.00-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0950.0058.040.000.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0975.0066.170.000.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0920.0041.92-0.00-0.01
Penn St.B100.000.0966.6746.420.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0742.8633.23-0.00-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0762.5069.130.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0733.3332.35-0.00-0.02
TroySB0.000.0742.8636.19-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0728.5723.78-0.00-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.520.0716.6739.78-0.35-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.000.0771.4370.210.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.520.0757.1450.420.070.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
DaytonA100.000.0671.4373.490.000.03
DelawareCAA0.600.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0625.0039.59-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0622.2221.23-0.00-0.04
ArkansasSEC0.000.0685.7166.190.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0628.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0019.67-0.00-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0650.0052.760.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0616.6729.81-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0671.4358.920.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0034.40-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0642.8647.76-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0625.0048.10-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0633.3352.84-0.000.00
OaklandHorz0.000.0685.7177.150.000.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.0640.0058.82-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
TCUB120.000.06100.0061.680.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0687.5062.040.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0650.0030.350.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.0650.0038.050.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0685.7174.990.000.03
VMISC0.000.060.0016.78-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0616.6749.65-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0675.0086.710.000.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.02
MarquetteBE0.520.0675.0066.410.260.02
Boise St.MWC0.600.0642.8656.04-0.090.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0687.5082.800.000.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.190.0657.1471.520.170.03
ToledoMAC0.600.0637.5047.91-0.15-0.00
DuquesneA100.520.0644.4442.03-0.06-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0657.1451.790.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0671.4351.460.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0671.4349.170.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0671.4368.050.000.02
South CarolinaSEC0.000.06100.0078.850.000.04
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0625.0020.78-0.00-0.04
UABCUSA0.000.0650.0059.920.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.0620.0035.47-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.600.0687.5068.610.450.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0640.0054.54-0.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0662.5040.460.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0637.5037.74-0.00-0.01
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.520.060.0017.61-0.52-0.04
MichiganB100.000.0675.0066.460.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0640.0041.93-0.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0642.8637.34-0.00-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.000.0687.5081.960.000.04
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0642.8650.12-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0625.0055.33-0.000.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0671.4366.700.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0687.5078.510.000.03
WisconsinB100.000.0677.7876.040.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.970.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0320.0022.75-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.0350.0050.450.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0350.0043.390.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.600.030.0034.27-0.60-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.030.0023.69-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0314.2932.19-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
DenverSum0.000.0342.8645.01-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0333.3354.32-0.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0022.01-0.00-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0385.7153.560.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
FIUCUSA0.000.0314.2936.02-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.600.0314.2943.58-0.43-0.00
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0350.0071.020.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0333.3330.44-0.00-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0325.0022.93-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
UCFAmer0.000.0385.7176.240.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.0325.0029.54-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0357.1429.790.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.520.0350.0056.740.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0387.5065.250.000.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.520.0333.3352.11-0.170.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0039.53-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0325.0043.41-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0350.0041.540.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0357.1444.890.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0371.4354.310.000.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.520.0366.6766.860.170.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0375.0061.490.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.520.0342.8650.06-0.070.00
VillanovaBE0.520.03100.0084.840.520.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0316.6736.03-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.520.0342.8663.41-0.070.01