Morehead St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	172.0
Current RPI:	172
Expected SOS:	126
Current SOS:	126
Current Record:	13-18
Expected Record:	13-18
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-4
Current OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC Record:	4-9
Expected OOC RPI:	177
Expected OOC SOS:	38

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-18	172.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morehead St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	74-77	W	100%
11-12	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	67-45	L	0%
11-18	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	88-74	W	100%
11-21	Kentucky (56.0)	SEC	A	81-70	L	0%
11-26	Norfolk St. (178.0)	MEAC	H	73-67	W	100%
11-28	Marshall (208.0)	CUSA	A	70-67	L	0%
12-1	Wright St. (129.0)	Horz	A	66-57	L	0%
12-5	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	57-69	L	0%
12-8	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	H	71-63	W	100%
12-19	South Dakota (240.0)	Sum	A	85-75	L	0%
12-21	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	69-49	L	0%
12-28	Southern Mississippi (31.0)	CUSA	H	58-94	L	0%
1-3	SIU Edwardsville (304.0)	OVC	H	68-64	W	100%
1-5	Eastern Illinois (276.0)	OVC	H	65-50	W	100%
1-9	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	A	84-81	L	0%
1-12	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	A	59-52	L	0%
1-17	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	A	59-75	W	100%
1-19	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	A	74-88	W	100%
1-24	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	H	63-64	L	0%
1-26	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	H	78-69	W	100%
1-31	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	A	93-74	L	0%
2-2	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	A	70-59	L	0%
2-9	Eastern Kentucky (70.0)	OVC	H	47-68	L	0%
2-14	Jacksonville St. (142.0)	OVC	H	85-81	W	100%
2-16	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	H	65-63	W	100%
2-20	Murray St. (110.0)	OVC	H	100-106	L	0%
2-23	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	82-79	L	0%
2-28	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	A	100-101	W	100%
3-2	Tennessee Tech (242.0)	OVC	A	72-66	L	0%
3-6	Tennessee Martin (312.0)	OVC	N	73-66	W	100%
3-7	Tennessee St. (105.0)	OVC	N	88-75	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morehead St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Morehead St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Morehead St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Morehead St.	OVC	26.34	26.34	42.86	42.86	-3.76	-3.76
Tennessee St.	OVC	5.55	5.55	55.56	55.56	0.62	0.62
Belmont	OVC	4.04	4.04	78.57	78.57	2.31	2.31
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.01	4.01	68.97	68.97	1.52	1.52
Tennessee Tech	OVC	3.92	3.92	36.00	36.00	-1.10	-1.10
Jacksonville St.	OVC	3.92	3.92	58.33	58.33	0.65	0.65
Tennessee Martin	OVC	3.81	3.81	26.92	26.92	-1.76	-1.76
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.34	3.34	68.97	68.97	1.27	1.27
Murray St.	OVC	2.37	2.37	64.29	64.29	0.68	0.68
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.34	2.34	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	2.32	2.32	36.67	36.67	-0.62	-0.62
Austin Peay	OVC	2.26	2.26	17.86	17.86	-1.45	-1.45
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	2.25	2.25	29.17	29.17	-0.94	-0.94
Oakland	Sum	1.77	1.77	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
South Dakota	Sum	1.77	1.77	25.93	25.93	-0.85	-0.85
Kentucky	SEC	1.71	1.71	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
Lafayette	Pat	1.71	1.71	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Long Island	NEC	1.71	1.71	62.50	62.50	0.43	0.43
Marshall	CUSA	1.69	1.69	36.67	36.67	-0.45	-0.45
Maryland	ACC	1.69	1.69	63.64	63.64	0.46	0.46
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	67.74	67.74	0.59	0.59
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1.66	1.66	70.97	70.97	0.70	0.70
Wright St.	Horz	1.64	1.64	61.29	61.29	0.37	0.37
Indiana St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.46	0.46	70.97	70.97	0.19	0.19
Western Illinois	Sum	0.39	0.39	71.43	71.43	0.17	0.17
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.38	0.38	22.58	22.58	-0.21	-0.21
Lipscomb	ASun	0.31	0.31	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.27	0.27	45.16	45.16	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.27	0.27	13.33	13.33	-0.19	-0.19
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.22	0.22	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Memphis	CUSA	0.21	0.21	88.24	88.24	0.16	0.16
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.19	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.16	0.16	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Central Florida	CUSA	0.16	0.16	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.14	0.14	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.14	0.14	28.12	28.12	-0.06	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
East Carolina	CUSA	0.13	0.13	53.85	53.85	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.11	0.11	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.00	10.00	-0.09	-0.09
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Western Kentucky	SB	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	GWC	0.08	0.08	35.71	35.71	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Detroit	Horz	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	7.14	7.14	-0.06	-0.06
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	23.33	23.33	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.05	0.05	18.18	18.18	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	93.75	93.75	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	WAC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.02	0.02	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00