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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Boston University

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:172.4
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:218
Current SOS:183
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:212



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-652.00.04%
22-766.10.16%
21-878.10.65%
20-989.11.98%
19-10105.05.50%
18-11123.010.21%
17-12140.914.81%
16-13160.817.35%
15-14181.617.22%
14-15203.014.30%
13-16224.79.14%
12-17244.35.04%
11-18262.82.33%
10-19279.80.90%
9-20293.40.30%
8-21314.80.05%
7-22325.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northeastern (167.3)CAAA87-77L0%0.0
11-18Northeastern (167.3)CAAH65-63W100%0.0
11-19Maine (310.8)AEH102-78W100%0.0
11-20LIU Brooklyn (214.2)NECH86-69W100%0.0
11-28Saint Peter's (178.9)MAACA80-67L0%0.0
11-30Connecticut (143.2)AmerA51-49L0%0.0
12-3North Carolina St. (109.3)ACCA0-019%-10.7
12-7Canisius (211.7)MAACH0-070%6.5
12-10Syracuse (39.6)ACCA0-04%-21.0
12-18New Hampshire (156.1)AEH0-065%4.6
12-21UMass Lowell (255.3)AEA0-060%3.1
12-30Holy Cross (183.0)PatH0-069%5.9
1-2Lehigh (83.7)PatH0-042%-2.5
1-5Navy (221.2)PatA0-050%0.1
1-8Lafayette (279.9)PatA0-066%4.9
1-11American (262.3)PatH0-076%8.5
1-16Loyola MD (218.3)PatA0-055%1.6
1-18Colgate (231.7)PatH0-073%7.2
1-21Bucknell (97.9)PatA0-029%-6.5
1-25Army (208.3)PatH0-068%5.5
1-30Lehigh (83.7)PatA0-023%-8.7
2-2Navy (221.2)PatH0-070%6.2
2-5Lafayette (279.9)PatH0-082%11.1
2-8American (262.3)PatA0-058%2.3
2-11Loyola MD (218.3)PatH0-074%7.8
2-15Colgate (231.7)PatA0-053%1.1
2-19Bucknell (97.9)PatH0-049%-0.3
2-22Army (208.3)PatA0-048%-0.7
2-25Holy Cross (183.0)PatA0-049%-0.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston UniversityPat30.3026.4450.0055.010.002.65
Holy CrossPat0.004.4942.8648.14-0.00-0.17
Loyola MDPat0.694.4533.3340.91-0.23-0.81
AmericanPat0.004.4216.6735.84-0.00-1.25
ColgatePat0.004.4220.0041.63-0.00-0.74
LafayettePat0.834.4233.3332.32-0.28-1.56
BucknellPat0.004.4075.0068.140.001.60
ArmyPat0.004.3933.3345.83-0.00-0.37
NavyPat0.004.3928.5743.89-0.00-0.54
LehighPat0.004.3933.3366.97-0.001.49
NortheasternCAA18.753.5460.0048.123.75-0.13
MaineAE10.221.9920.0026.49-6.13-0.93
New HampshireAE0.001.9550.0058.340.000.33
UMass LowellAE0.691.9425.0040.84-0.35-0.35
LIU BrooklynNEC10.221.90100.0059.9910.220.38
SyracuseACC0.001.8966.6769.280.000.73
Saint Peter'sMAAC8.331.8450.0051.130.000.04
ConnecticutAmer9.521.8120.0036.57-5.71-0.49
CanisiusMAAC0.001.7833.3341.92-0.00-0.29
North Carolina St.ACC0.001.7571.4349.540.00-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.000.3616.6733.82-0.00-0.12
BinghamtonAE0.000.3642.8640.94-0.00-0.06
AlbanyAE0.000.3250.0060.380.000.07
FairfieldMAAC0.000.3283.3362.080.000.08
HartfordAE0.690.2712.5022.55-0.52-0.15
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.2616.6729.36-0.00-0.11
MonmouthMAAC0.000.2671.4371.570.000.11
UMBCAE0.000.2480.0055.340.000.03
VermontAE0.000.2462.5071.630.000.10
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.2412.5048.98-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy1.190.2328.5730.63-0.51-0.09
ColumbiaIvy0.000.2142.8642.47-0.00-0.03
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.2042.8638.05-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.20100.0075.010.000.10
MaristMAAC0.000.2042.8635.68-0.00-0.06
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.2016.6734.31-0.00-0.06
PrincetonIvy0.000.1825.0063.95-0.000.05
St. Francis PANEC0.000.1840.0043.86-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.1842.8636.82-0.00-0.05
TowsonCAA0.000.1850.0054.490.000.02
WagnerNEC0.690.1833.3353.85-0.230.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.1725.0039.28-0.00-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.1762.5056.500.000.02
ManhattanMAAC0.000.1733.3338.19-0.00-0.04
SienaMAAC0.000.1728.5750.51-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.1528.5750.20-0.000.00
NJITASun0.000.1542.8650.32-0.000.00
DuquesneA100.000.1537.5034.65-0.00-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.830.1520.0034.22-0.50-0.05
ElonCAA0.000.1483.3358.030.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1416.6727.03-0.00-0.07
RiderMAAC0.000.1450.0047.990.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1471.4352.370.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.1285.7168.390.000.04
PennIvy0.000.1240.0057.97-0.000.02
VillanovaBE0.000.12100.0083.120.000.08
La SalleA100.000.1260.0051.780.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.690.1140.0037.65-0.14-0.03
DelawareCAA0.000.1140.0040.65-0.00-0.02
HofstraCAA0.000.1157.1440.550.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.110.0028.15-0.00-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.1183.3377.170.000.06
William & MaryCAA0.000.1140.0055.44-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.110.0043.04-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.1160.0070.140.000.05
Georgia TechACC0.000.1166.6739.720.00-0.02
TempleAmer0.000.0971.4363.570.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.090.0023.47-0.00-0.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0950.0046.780.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.000.09100.0076.650.000.05
Ohio St.B100.000.0985.7172.660.000.04
OregonP120.690.0971.4366.730.300.03
MarylandB100.000.0985.7156.490.000.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0966.6770.740.000.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0942.8637.60-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.0887.5078.680.000.05
MassachusettsA100.000.0883.3358.080.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.690.0885.7162.920.500.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0850.0027.250.00-0.04
LouisvilleACC0.000.0885.7175.950.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0871.4365.740.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.000.0885.7180.010.000.05
PittsburghACC0.000.0885.7155.550.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.08100.0080.780.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.080.0027.77-0.00-0.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0671.4343.020.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.06100.0074.800.000.03
YaleIvy0.000.0633.3364.14-0.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.0671.4356.280.000.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0650.0042.710.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0683.3369.840.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0614.2929.15-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0685.7180.960.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0675.0047.510.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0620.0049.38-0.00-0.00
High PointBSth0.000.0650.0051.260.000.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0683.3376.370.000.03
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0038.26-0.00-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.060.0034.23-0.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0685.7159.740.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0666.6732.240.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.100.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0683.3374.620.000.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0666.6758.420.000.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0022.69-0.00-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.000.0650.0047.560.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0033.54-0.00-0.02
Kent St.MAC1.190.0650.0051.820.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0061.590.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.0662.5043.960.00-0.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0640.0027.05-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0640.0050.91-0.000.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0628.5733.92-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0075.690.000.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0685.7162.410.000.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0038.35-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0616.6740.71-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
RichmondA100.000.0657.1448.600.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0657.1448.860.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0325.0053.29-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
West VirginiaB120.000.0383.3380.550.000.02
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0383.3355.200.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.690.0333.3345.60-0.23-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.690.0383.3356.560.460.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0314.2926.81-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0350.0042.420.00-0.00
FordhamA100.830.0357.1443.680.12-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.030.0038.51-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0340.0050.71-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.830.0314.2933.07-0.60-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.690.0325.0024.66-0.35-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0385.7165.670.000.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.030.0024.77-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0366.6775.370.000.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0320.0036.00-0.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0316.6730.27-0.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0350.0055.850.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0350.0045.410.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.000.0357.1442.660.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0086.250.000.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0366.6754.420.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0020.01-0.00-0.02
MontanaBSky0.000.0314.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.320.000.00
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01