live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 28, 2015.


Boston University

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:197.8
Current RPI:204
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:146
Current Record:7-11
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:4-4
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:195
Expected OOC SOS:48



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-11106.80.04%
16-12121.30.60%
15-13137.73.09%
14-14157.510.26%
13-15177.720.17%
12-16197.727.08%
11-17215.922.71%
10-18232.811.69%
9-19250.33.66%
8-20265.50.60%
7-21279.30.09%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16Northeastern (110.0)CAAN65-71L0%0.0
11-19Norfolk St. (141.4)MEACA63-71W100%0.0
11-21Kentucky (1.4)SECA89-65L0%0.0
11-25New Hampshire (229.5)AEA75-68L0%0.0
11-30UMass Lowell (253.8)AEH59-69L0%0.0
12-3Binghamton (332.7)AEH77-65W100%0.0
12-6Saint Peter's (214.6)MAACH59-70L0%0.0
12-8Harvard (87.8)IvyA70-56L0%0.0
12-14Quinnipiac (190.8)MAACH71-68W100%0.0
12-20Dayton (35.9)A10A78-62L0%0.0
12-31Holy Cross (209.6)PatA72-75W100%0.0
1-3Lehigh (169.4)PatH75-56W100%0.0
1-7Navy (263.4)PatA64-70W100%0.0
1-10Lafayette (133.0)PatH62-63L0%0.0
1-14Colgate (191.2)PatA62-53L0%0.0
1-18Loyola MD (273.1)PatA91-86L0%0.0
1-21American (141.6)PatH59-54W100%0.0
1-24Bucknell (160.0)PatH77-92L0%0.0
1-29Army (179.9)PatA0-032%-5.0
1-31Lehigh (169.4)PatA0-034%-4.7
2-4Navy (263.4)PatH0-074%7.2
2-9Lafayette (133.0)PatA0-028%-6.6
2-11Colgate (191.2)PatH0-054%1.2
2-14Loyola MD (273.1)PatH0-083%10.5
2-18American (141.6)PatA0-032%-5.2
2-22Bucknell (160.0)PatA0-034%-4.5
2-25Army (179.9)PatH0-056%1.8
2-28Holy Cross (209.6)PatH0-066%4.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston UniversityPat26.2926.4439.2942.67-5.63-3.88
ColgatePat3.424.6435.0041.80-1.03-0.76
NavyPat3.414.6436.8437.45-0.90-1.16
ArmyPat0.634.6066.6763.400.211.23
LehighPat3.354.6050.0051.690.000.16
AmericanPat3.284.5855.0055.380.330.49
BucknellPat3.284.5850.0050.240.000.02
LafayettePat3.274.5755.5657.720.360.71
Holy CrossPat3.294.5343.7544.43-0.41-0.51
Loyola MDPat3.194.5033.3330.82-1.06-1.73
BinghamtonAE3.062.1010.0015.59-2.44-1.45
New HampshireAE2.981.9750.0051.880.000.07
UMass LowellAE2.921.9136.8439.22-0.77-0.41
QuinnipiacMAAC2.981.9161.1158.840.660.34
HarvardIvy2.921.8861.5464.000.670.53
NortheasternCAA2.951.8861.9063.200.700.50
Saint Peter'sMAAC2.991.8845.0048.59-0.30-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC2.841.8160.0064.730.570.53
DaytonA102.781.7983.3378.771.851.03
KentuckySEC2.781.79100.0098.392.781.73
AlbanyAE0.500.4165.0067.670.150.14
ColumbiaIvy0.420.4053.3356.000.030.05
HartfordAE0.430.3250.0050.690.000.00
UMBCAE0.350.3214.2916.99-0.25-0.21
Stony BrookAE0.350.3161.9066.000.080.10
BrownIvy0.360.2941.1837.75-0.06-0.07
MaineAE0.280.299.5212.22-0.23-0.22
CornellIvy0.340.2847.0648.27-0.02-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.280.2730.0029.50-0.11-0.11
Sacred HeartNEC0.360.2640.0045.19-0.07-0.02
VermontAE0.380.2650.0055.820.000.03
CanisiusMAAC0.220.2557.8962.550.030.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.340.2447.3749.83-0.02-0.00
MaristMAAC0.280.2410.0013.95-0.22-0.17
SienaMAAC0.280.2442.1138.13-0.04-0.06
La SalleA100.340.2455.0053.280.030.02
PennIvy0.210.2233.3334.33-0.07-0.07
NJITind0.290.2052.3854.420.010.02
PrincetonIvy0.210.1943.7542.94-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.220.1966.6758.780.070.03
St. Francis PANEC0.210.1850.0055.540.000.02
RiderMAAC0.210.1861.9062.460.050.05
ManhattanMAAC0.330.1847.3747.26-0.02-0.01
YaleIvy0.150.1664.7164.150.040.05
Boston CollegeACC0.380.1647.3742.62-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.240.1652.3853.760.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.140.1554.5556.900.010.02
James MadisonCAA0.260.1559.0958.280.050.02
DartmouthIvy0.340.1350.0050.950.000.00
BryantNEC0.170.1350.0049.220.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.220.1336.8438.54-0.06-0.03
VMISC0.070.1331.5837.72-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.140.1290.0084.550.110.09
DelawareCAA0.060.1220.0022.29-0.04-0.07
ProvidenceBE0.210.1275.0065.020.100.04
HamptonMEAC0.070.1240.0038.72-0.01-0.03
IonaMAAC0.070.1271.4374.820.030.06
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1252.3854.030.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.1215.7923.11-0.05-0.06
TowsonCAA0.130.1240.0037.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.070.0955.0060.950.010.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0942.1139.32-0.01-0.02
MassachusettsA100.160.0952.6353.060.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.0933.3334.41-0.05-0.03
KansasB120.150.0985.0077.530.100.05
Notre DameACC0.140.0990.9185.840.110.07
DuquesneA100.140.0927.7826.35-0.06-0.04
FordhamA100.140.0923.5324.53-0.08-0.05
Ohio St.B100.140.0976.1976.580.070.05
St. BonaventureA100.140.0961.1156.090.030.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0973.6866.480.030.03
HofstraCAA0.130.0963.6468.380.040.03
PittsburghACC0.080.0760.0052.080.020.00
VirginiaACC0.170.07100.0094.050.170.06
Air ForceMWC0.000.0638.8937.23-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.070.0671.4370.620.030.03
DePaulBE0.070.0652.3843.960.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0685.0081.750.000.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0650.0054.890.000.01
Texas TechB120.070.0652.3840.070.00-0.01
USCP120.000.0647.3740.18-0.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0627.7832.07-0.03-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0685.0075.810.050.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.0647.3750.37-0.010.00
RutgersB100.140.0647.6238.09-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.140.0661.1156.280.030.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0672.2268.860.030.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0610.5319.81-0.05-0.04
HowardMEAC0.000.0641.1844.41-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.070.0665.0063.410.020.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0629.4131.68-0.03-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.070.0620.0027.27-0.04-0.03
BuffaloMAC0.140.0668.4266.040.050.02
VanderbiltSEC0.140.0652.6353.030.010.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0626.3232.93-0.03-0.02
IllinoisB100.070.0661.9060.270.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0673.6872.620.030.03
MichiganB100.070.0660.0052.380.010.00
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0638.1045.39-0.02-0.01
Penn St.B100.070.0666.6754.150.020.00
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0616.6717.50-0.04-0.04
Saint LouisA100.070.0644.4437.23-0.01-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0666.6763.830.020.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0660.0058.630.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.070.0642.8638.96-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.070.0680.0072.660.040.03
MississippiSEC0.150.0665.0063.100.040.02
RichmondA100.140.0655.0056.850.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.150.0673.6865.320.070.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0663.1658.860.020.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0628.5733.02-0.03-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0631.5832.45-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.000.0645.0042.60-0.00-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0655.0055.300.000.01
MissouriSEC0.070.0633.3330.18-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0650.0051.200.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0657.8956.480.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0661.1164.900.010.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0342.8642.74-0.01-0.00
HoustonAmer0.100.0340.0037.06-0.02-0.01
BaylorB120.070.0373.6869.340.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0321.0530.50-0.04-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0344.4449.87-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.070.030.004.63-0.07-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0315.0023.69-0.05-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0372.2277.810.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0342.1147.16-0.01-0.00
Oregon St.P120.070.0368.4260.540.030.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0316.6725.24-0.04-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0328.5732.18-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0345.0057.02-0.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0325.0031.57-0.04-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.070.0376.4771.620.040.01
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0361.1160.440.020.01
DavidsonA100.070.0376.4776.940.040.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0356.2557.190.010.00
George MasonA100.000.0329.4131.81-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0376.1969.640.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0350.0046.850.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0315.7918.45-0.05-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.070.0331.5830.47-0.03-0.01
VCUA100.000.0385.0082.100.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0347.3738.48-0.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0350.0050.450.000.00
DetroitHorz0.060.0340.0042.29-0.01-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0352.9458.930.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0352.3845.690.00-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.070.0385.0078.450.050.02
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0070.790.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0342.1135.02-0.00-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.070.0316.6719.89-0.05-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.9576.520.050.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0378.9573.970.040.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0347.3741.05-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.070.0370.0063.300.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0363.1654.180.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.035.2610.49-0.06-0.02
TexasB120.070.0370.0067.330.030.01
UCLAP120.070.0355.0052.200.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0361.1159.740.020.01