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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Boston University

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:84.0
Current RPI:84
Expected SOS:155
Current SOS:155
Current Record:24-10
Expected Record:24-10
Current Conf Record:17-4
Expected Conf Record:17-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:17-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:77
Expected OOC SOS:57



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-1084.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Northeastern (222.0)CAAN72-69W100%0.0
11-13UMass Lowell (283.0)AEH91-65W100%0.0
11-17Connecticut (22.0)AmerA77-60L0%0.0
11-22Eastern Washington (228.0)BSkyN80-68L0%0.0
11-23UC Irvine (111.0)BWA68-74W100%0.0
11-24LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECN72-57W100%0.0
11-30Saint Peter's (231.0)MAACH66-65W100%0.0
12-2Quinnipiac (105.0)MAACA66-69W100%0.0
12-7Harvard (46.0)IvyH68-79L0%0.0
12-11George Washington (29.0)A10A70-60L0%0.0
12-15Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACH82-86L0%0.0
12-21Maryland (78.0)ACCA77-83W100%0.0
12-29Saint Joseph's (32.0)A10A73-67L0%0.0
1-2Holy Cross (127.0)PatH70-60W100%0.0
1-5Lehigh (236.0)PatA66-67W100%0.0
1-7Navy (321.0)PatH55-32W100%0.0
1-11Lafayette (258.0)PatA78-89W100%0.0
1-15Colgate (256.0)PatH66-58W100%0.0
1-20Loyola MD (274.0)PatH72-58W100%0.0
1-22American (118.0)PatA86-56L0%0.0
1-25Bucknell (167.0)PatA61-64W100%0.0
1-29Army (235.0)PatH86-81W100%0.0
2-1Lehigh (236.0)PatH80-82L0%0.0
2-5Navy (321.0)PatA48-61W100%0.0
2-8Lafayette (258.0)PatH88-54W100%0.0
2-12Colgate (256.0)PatA74-76W100%0.0
2-15Loyola MD (274.0)PatA72-87W100%0.0
2-19American (118.0)PatH71-62W100%0.0
2-23Bucknell (167.0)PatH53-63L0%0.0
2-26Army (235.0)PatA70-71W100%0.0
3-1Holy Cross (127.0)PatA64-68W100%0.0
3-5Lafayette (258.0)PatH91-54W100%0.0
3-8Army (235.0)PatH91-70W100%0.0
3-12American (118.0)PatH36-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston UniversityPat26.5426.5469.7769.7710.4910.49
AmericanPat5.385.3862.0762.071.301.30
LafayettePat5.335.3337.0437.04-1.38-1.38
ArmyPat5.335.3351.8551.850.200.20
Holy CrossPat4.004.0063.3363.331.071.07
ColgatePat3.983.9842.8642.86-0.57-0.57
Loyola MDPat3.973.9737.0437.04-1.03-1.03
LehighPat3.963.9643.3343.33-0.53-0.53
BucknellPat3.933.9353.5753.570.280.28
NavyPat3.903.9029.6329.63-1.59-1.59
LIU BrooklynNEC1.611.6132.1432.14-0.58-0.58
ConnecticutAmer1.601.6075.7675.760.820.82
QuinnipiacMAAC1.561.5666.6766.670.520.52
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.561.5642.8642.86-0.22-0.22
HarvardIvy1.561.5685.7185.711.121.12
UC IrvineBW1.551.5567.7467.740.550.55
Saint Joseph'sA101.541.5471.8871.880.680.68
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.541.5446.6746.67-0.10-0.10
George WashingtonA101.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
MarylandACC1.521.5253.3353.330.100.10
Norfolk St.MEAC1.501.5051.7251.720.050.05
NortheasternCAA1.501.5035.4835.48-0.43-0.43
UMass LowellAE1.471.4734.6234.62-0.45-0.45
UMBCAE0.340.3427.5927.59-0.15-0.15
ColumbiaIvy0.320.3260.0060.000.060.06
St. Francis PANEC0.310.3132.2632.26-0.11-0.11
FairfieldMAAC0.290.2921.8821.88-0.16-0.16
NJITind0.270.2736.0036.00-0.08-0.08
BinghamtonAE0.250.2523.3323.33-0.13-0.13
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.240.2450.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.220.2256.2556.250.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
MaineAE0.200.2017.8617.86-0.13-0.13
HartfordAE0.190.1951.5251.520.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1917.8617.86-0.12-0.12
Sacred HeartNEC0.190.1916.1316.13-0.13-0.13
MaristMAAC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
FordhamA100.190.1932.2632.26-0.07-0.07
CornellIvy0.170.173.703.70-0.16-0.16
PrincetonIvy0.170.1770.3770.370.070.07
BryantNEC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1778.1278.120.090.09
Seton HallBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
BrownIvy0.150.1551.8551.850.010.01
PennIvy0.150.1528.5728.57-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.150.1551.8551.850.010.01
HowardMEAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
CanisiusMAAC0.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
RiderMAAC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
RutgersAmer0.140.1434.3834.38-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
VCUA100.140.1476.4776.470.070.07
Stony BrookAE0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
VermontAE0.130.1366.6766.670.040.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
The CitadelSC0.120.1213.7913.79-0.09-0.09
WagnerNEC0.120.1260.0060.000.020.02
VirginiaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Miami FLACC0.120.1251.5251.520.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.120.1221.2121.21-0.07-0.07
SienaMAAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.100.1017.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1087.5087.500.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0968.7568.750.040.04
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.090.0941.9441.94-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
Ohio St.B100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
DrexelCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
TempleAmer0.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
HoustonAmer0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0714.8114.81-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
SyracuseACC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Wake ForestACC0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
DuquesneA100.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
TulaneCUSA0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0722.5822.58-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
HawaiiBW0.070.0762.0762.070.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.050.05
MemphisAmer0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.053.573.57-0.05-0.05
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SMUAmer0.040.0471.8871.880.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.040.0437.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.040.0437.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Kansas St.B120.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MarquetteBE0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
PacificWCC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0294.1294.120.020.02