Boston University

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	175.2
Current RPI:	187
Expected SOS:	221
Current SOS:	219
Current Record:	12-13
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	8-3
Expected Conf Record:	12-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	15.72%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-1
Current OOC Record:	4-10
Expected OOC Record:	4-11
Expected OOC RPI:	178
Expected OOC SOS:	63

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-13	146.0	5.65%
17-14	160.4	28.13%
16-15	176.4	40.81%
15-16	192.6	20.17%
14-17	207.8	4.65%
13-18	221.1	0.57%
12-19	240.0	0.01%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Northeastern (164.6)	CAA	H	74-82	L	0%	0.0
11-13	Texas (58.4)	B12	A	82-46	L	0%	0.0
11-20	Cornell (178.3)	Ivy	A	71-66	L	0%	0.0
11-25	Cleveland St. (52.0)	Horz	N	62-63	L	0%	0.0
11-26	Rhode Island (250.6)	A10	A	64-70	W	100%	0.0
11-27	Hofstra (239.2)	CAA	N	68-61	W	100%	0.0
11-30	Delaware (183.1)	CAA	H	73-67	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Boston College (248.2)	ACC	A	61-75	W	100%	0.0
12-7	Saint Joseph's (49.2)	A10	A	75-68	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Harvard (36.7)	Ivy	H	52-76	L	0%	0.0
12-13	Villanova (98.5)	BE	A	68-43	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Bucknell (71.1)	Pat	H	61-75	L	0%	0.0
12-29	La Salle (69.1)	A10	A	70-53	L	0%	0.0
12-31	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	59-53	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Vermont (173.1)	AE	A	83-69	L	0%	0.0
1-8	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	H	68-49	W	100%	0.0
1-11	Maine (261.2)	AE	A	68-77	W	100%	0.0
1-14	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	H	61-55	W	100%	0.0
1-16	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	70-57	W	100%	0.0
1-19	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	A	50-52	W	100%	0.0
1-22	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	46-65	W	100%	0.0
1-24	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	H	83-48	W	100%	0.0
1-27	Stony Brook (154.7)	AE	A	66-57	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Vermont (173.1)	AE	H	67-68	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Binghamton (343.4)	AE	A	53-68	W	100%	0.0
2-6	Albany (208.3)	AE	A	0-0		43%	-2.0
2-9	Maine (261.2)	AE	H	0-0		76%	7.8
2-15	New Hampshire (315.8)	AE	H	0-0		85%	11.3
2-18	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	A	0-0		25%	-7.5
2-22	MD Baltimore County (332.6)	AE	A	0-0		87%	12.2
2-25	Hartford (328.5)	AE	H	0-0		92%	15.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boston University	AE	26.37	26.31	52.10	55.46	1.11	2.87
Vermont	AE	4.64	4.11	56.52	59.90	0.61	0.81
Binghamton	AE	4.69	4.10	0.00	4.32	-4.69	-3.74
Stony Brook	AE	4.62	4.09	68.42	69.49	1.70	1.59
Hartford	AE	2.70	4.07	18.18	22.24	-1.72	-2.26
New Hampshire	AE	2.61	4.06	36.84	41.07	-0.69	-0.73
Albany	AE	2.69	4.05	62.50	62.62	0.67	1.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	2.54	4.04	14.29	17.08	-1.81	-2.66
Maine	AE	2.62	4.03	52.63	52.77	0.14	0.22
Cornell	Ivy	2.36	1.89	33.33	39.19	-0.79	-0.41
Northeastern	CAA	2.25	1.86	45.45	46.72	-0.20	-0.12
Hofstra	CAA	2.30	1.83	33.33	36.57	-0.77	-0.49
La Salle	A10	2.30	1.83	69.57	67.78	0.90	0.65
Rhode Island	A10	2.26	1.83	21.74	21.29	-1.28	-1.05
Delaware	CAA	2.22	1.80	50.00	52.46	0.00	0.09
Boston College	ACC	2.23	1.79	31.82	27.35	-0.81	-0.81
Harvard	Ivy	2.22	1.78	90.00	87.47	1.77	1.33
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.14	1.76	77.27	73.39	0.08	0.82
Bucknell	Pat	2.18	1.75	72.73	74.11	0.99	0.84
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.12	1.72	54.55	55.62	0.19	0.19
Saint Joseph's	A10	2.13	1.72	60.87	61.24	0.46	0.39
Villanova	BE	2.13	1.69	42.86	44.22	-0.30	-0.20
Cleveland St.	Horz	2.08	1.66	80.95	79.76	1.29	0.99
Texas	B12	2.04	1.64	59.09	60.08	0.37	0.33
Brown	Ivy	0.27	0.37	27.27	23.80	-0.12	-0.19
Towson	CAA	0.29	0.33	4.00	5.26	-0.27	-0.30
Marist	MAAC	0.22	0.31	34.78	33.43	-0.07	-0.10
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.36	0.31	14.29	17.17	-0.26	-0.20
Holy Cross	Pat	0.28	0.29	40.91	42.05	-0.05	-0.05
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.27	0.28	54.55	56.84	0.02	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.26	0.28	72.22	63.19	0.11	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.30	0.28	30.43	29.50	-0.12	-0.11
Drexel	CAA	0.34	0.27	79.17	78.10	0.20	0.15
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.32	0.26	44.00	45.89	-0.04	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.18	0.25	37.50	38.52	-0.05	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.13	0.25	37.50	41.54	-0.03	-0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.25	0.24	76.00	72.50	0.13	0.11
Massachusetts	A10	0.26	0.24	73.91	68.58	0.12	0.09
American	Pat	0.27	0.22	65.22	63.79	0.08	0.06
Temple	A10	0.26	0.21	77.27	75.06	0.14	0.11
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.19	45.45	45.70	-0.01	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.26	0.19	8.70	12.13	-0.21	-0.15
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.14	0.19	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.22	0.19	40.91	34.50	-0.04	-0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.19	45.45	45.55	-0.01	-0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.17	0.18	77.27	77.67	0.09	0.10
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.18	33.33	34.47	-0.07	-0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.25	0.18	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.17	47.37	52.87	-0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.09	0.17	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.10
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.17	21.74	24.58	-0.05	-0.08
Georgia St.	CAA	0.17	0.16	66.67	69.69	0.06	0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.16	26.09	28.60	-0.06	-0.07
Old Dominion	CAA	0.25	0.16	60.00	58.29	0.05	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.16	0.16	79.17	80.10	0.09	0.10
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.16	34.78	32.08	-0.04	-0.06
James Madison	CAA	0.25	0.16	40.00	40.18	-0.05	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.14	54.55	54.30	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.14	0.14	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.14	41.67	38.67	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.22	0.14	40.91	41.72	-0.04	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.14	68.00	69.07	0.05	0.05
Navy	Pat	0.13	0.14	9.52	13.19	-0.10	-0.10
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.14	39.13	36.10	-0.03	-0.04
Missouri	B12	0.22	0.13	91.30	87.18	0.18	0.10
Monmouth	NEC	0.18	0.13	28.00	28.91	-0.08	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.12	0.13	56.52	55.95	0.02	0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.16	0.13	70.83	71.05	0.07	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.17	0.13	54.55	48.60	0.02	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.14	0.12	75.00	75.78	0.07	0.06
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.11	68.18	63.99	0.04	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.14	0.11	73.91	74.91	0.07	0.06
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.11	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.13	0.11	71.43	66.60	0.06	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.13	0.11	43.48	42.95	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.09	0.11	12.50	13.44	-0.07	-0.08
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.11	59.09	50.82	0.02	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.11	68.00	70.03	0.05	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.17	0.11	80.00	78.06	0.10	0.06
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.11	70.83	64.42	0.07	0.03
Syracuse	BE	0.13	0.11	95.83	92.01	0.12	0.09
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.10	60.87	58.16	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.09	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.09	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.13	0.08	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.04	0.08	8.70	13.10	-0.04	-0.06
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.08	21.74	22.76	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.13	0.08	8.33	10.86	-0.11	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.08	25.00	37.58	-0.04	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.04	0.08	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	39.13	42.12	-0.02	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.08	56.52	55.20	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.12	0.08	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.10	0.06	61.90	55.14	0.02	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.06	33.33	33.82	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.05	0.06	54.55	57.69	0.00	0.01
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.05	0.06	45.00	44.15	-0.00	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.05	69.57	65.87	0.03	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.04	0.05	42.11	49.81	-0.01	-0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.09	0.05	36.36	39.72	-0.02	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.05	82.61	84.57	0.05	0.04
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.05	0.05	69.57	65.47	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	47.83	49.03	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.06	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.05	19.05	21.29	-0.06	-0.03
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.05	79.17	75.98	0.05	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.04	0.05	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.05	42.86	39.66	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	Horz	0.05	0.05	65.22	63.61	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	41.67	40.61	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.05	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.05	86.96	83.16	0.06	0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.05	26.32	29.79	-0.04	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.09	0.05	65.22	63.74	0.03	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.04	0.05	90.91	83.85	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.05	73.91	68.43	0.04	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.04	0.05	78.26	78.39	0.02	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.04	0.05	72.73	68.28	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.00	0.05	59.09	54.70	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.04	0.05	45.45	40.70	-0.00	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.05	63.64	63.16	0.02	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.04	0.05	31.82	25.98	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.04	0.05	52.38	46.15	0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.42	66.45	0.02	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.03	72.73	64.43	0.02	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.04	0.03	24.00	24.86	-0.02	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.04	0.03	35.29	39.85	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.00	0.03	36.36	38.48	-0.00	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.04	0.03	18.18	22.22	-0.03	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.00	0.03	95.83	92.57	0.00	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.04	0.03	42.86	43.45	-0.01	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.76	0.01	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.04	0.03	69.57	61.31	0.02	0.01
Seattle	ind	0.05	0.03	23.53	33.28	-0.03	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.04	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.03	18.18	15.01	-0.03	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.05	0.03	68.18	67.91	0.02	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.04	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.00	0.03	86.36	83.09	0.00	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.00	0.03	80.95	77.38	0.00	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.02	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.03	78.26	72.66	0.03	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.04	0.03	81.82	81.03	0.03	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.03	28.57	26.30	-0.02	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.03	38.10	40.81	-0.01	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.04	0.03	81.82	76.80	0.03	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.05	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.04	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.03	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.03	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	25.00	23.75	-0.02	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.04	0.03	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.04	0.03	47.62	46.46	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.04	0.03	76.19	75.94	0.02	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.04	0.03	22.22	27.62	-0.02	-0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.04	0.03	60.87	59.05	0.01	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.04	0.03	54.55	56.79	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.03	34.78	34.48	-0.01	-0.01