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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Boston University

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:193.8
Current RPI:195
Expected SOS:291
Current SOS:301
Current Record:13-11
Expected Record:17-13
Current Conf Record:7-5
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-6
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:189
Expected OOC SOS:279



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-11162.03.11%
18-12175.119.42%
17-13188.835.34%
16-14203.328.33%
15-15218.311.70%
14-16233.01.97%
13-17250.90.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northeastern (148.4)CAAH84-87L0%0.0
11-16Albany (90.5)AEH69-64W100%0.0
11-19NJIT (186.9)ASunA90-76L0%0.0
11-21South Florida (244.3)AmerA66-78W100%0.0
11-24Kentucky (20.0)SECA82-62L0%0.0
11-28Binghamton (307.7)AEA65-75W100%0.0
12-2Massachusetts (194.6)A10A99-69L0%0.0
12-8Harvard (212.3)IvyH69-75L0%0.0
12-10UMass Lowell (275.1)AEA60-80W100%0.0
12-13Quinnipiac (267.5)MAACA57-64W100%0.0
12-19Canisius (216.9)MAACA84-68L0%0.0
12-21New Hampshire (198.8)AEH78-74W100%0.0
12-30Holy Cross (290.7)PatA80-64L0%0.0
1-2Lehigh (221.0)PatA81-73L0%0.0
1-6Navy (184.9)PatH67-83L0%0.0
1-9Lafayette (313.0)PatH68-47W100%0.0
1-13American (262.3)PatA50-61W100%0.0
1-18Loyola MD (231.0)PatH87-84W100%0.0
1-20Colgate (223.3)PatA85-78L0%0.0
1-23Bucknell (168.4)PatH71-74L0%0.0
1-27Army (220.5)PatA67-76W100%0.0
1-31Lehigh (221.0)PatH75-73W100%0.0
2-3Navy (184.9)PatA72-83W100%0.0
2-6Lafayette (313.0)PatA82-89W100%0.0
2-10American (262.3)PatH0-084%10.9
2-13Loyola MD (231.0)PatA0-048%-0.4
2-17Colgate (223.3)PatH0-067%4.8
2-21Bucknell (168.4)PatA0-023%-7.9
2-23Army (220.5)PatH0-062%3.3
2-27Holy Cross (290.7)PatH0-082%10.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston UniversityPat26.3926.3959.1758.524.844.50
Holy CrossPat2.974.3936.3636.81-0.81-1.16
ColgatePat2.914.3542.8644.54-0.42-0.48
AmericanPat2.844.3031.8233.66-1.03-1.41
ArmyPat2.834.3054.5555.930.260.51
NavyPat4.734.2763.6463.331.291.14
Loyola MDPat2.834.2736.3637.99-0.77-1.03
BucknellPat2.734.2752.3855.820.130.50
LafayettePat4.664.2325.0025.89-2.33-2.04
LehighPat4.664.2331.5836.23-1.72-1.16
AlbanyAE2.502.0778.2678.471.411.18
New HampshireAE2.402.0157.8955.230.380.21
BinghamtonAE2.371.9622.7325.55-1.29-0.96
UMass LowellAE2.271.8733.3333.88-0.76-0.60
NJITASun2.361.8452.1753.650.100.13
QuinnipiacMAAC2.261.8140.0038.78-0.45-0.41
CanisiusMAAC2.281.7941.6743.49-0.38-0.23
HarvardIvy2.221.7831.5836.24-0.82-0.49
KentuckySEC2.211.7572.7370.611.010.72
South FloridaAmer2.221.7520.8320.32-1.29-1.04
MassachusettsA102.141.7038.1037.27-0.51-0.43
NortheasternCAA2.141.7043.4844.82-0.28-0.18
Stony BrookAE0.560.4780.9582.700.350.31
UMBCAE0.450.4424.0026.41-0.24-0.21
MaineAE0.330.3834.7834.00-0.10-0.12
VermontAE0.380.3254.1757.520.030.05
HartfordAE0.330.3226.0926.50-0.16-0.15
CornellIvy0.370.2942.1140.16-0.06-0.06
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.280.2640.0045.51-0.06-0.02
SienaMAAC0.230.2664.0064.120.060.07
MaristMAAC0.230.2522.7324.73-0.12-0.13
FairfieldMAAC0.180.2354.1754.130.020.02
ColumbiaIvy0.240.2166.6765.210.080.06
St. Francis PANEC0.280.2050.0049.440.00-0.00
PennIvy0.280.2038.8937.66-0.06-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.190.1872.2274.710.090.09
YaleIvy0.190.1873.6874.650.090.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.240.1834.7837.07-0.07-0.05
George WashingtonA100.230.1778.2674.420.130.08
KansasB120.190.1781.8277.570.120.09
ManhattanMAAC0.130.1742.8641.97-0.02-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.140.1738.1041.93-0.03-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.140.1756.5256.610.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.230.1779.1780.760.130.10
St. BonaventureA100.180.1771.4368.970.080.06
USC UpstateASun0.220.1722.7323.25-0.12-0.09
BrownIvy0.100.1531.5831.05-0.04-0.06
JacksonvilleASun0.170.1450.0049.860.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.180.1424.0024.57-0.10-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1228.0030.73-0.06-0.05
SyracuseACC0.150.1266.6762.560.050.03
BryantNEC0.150.1225.0026.37-0.07-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.200.1231.5831.79-0.07-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.140.1250.0051.910.000.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.180.1237.5043.37-0.05-0.02
FordhamA100.090.1255.0052.290.010.01
La SalleA100.140.1220.0020.45-0.09-0.07
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1247.8348.91-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.130.1150.0049.090.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.090.1165.2259.750.030.02
IonaMAAC0.090.1160.8760.730.020.02
LSUSEC0.090.1165.2260.270.030.02
RiderMAAC0.180.1140.0042.11-0.04-0.02
TennesseeSEC0.090.1147.8346.88-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.130.1163.6460.940.040.02
FloridaSEC0.130.1165.2266.090.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.0930.4326.50-0.06-0.04
ConnecticutAmer0.100.0973.9172.480.050.04
George MasonA100.050.0934.7834.15-0.01-0.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0966.6763.420.030.02
WagnerNEC0.090.0963.6465.030.030.03
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0046.740.00-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.140.0975.0070.940.070.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0947.6252.07-0.000.00
LipscombASun0.130.0925.0029.27-0.07-0.04
VCUA100.050.0973.9173.900.020.04
SMUAmer0.140.0890.9186.130.110.06
DelawareCAA0.130.0821.7423.32-0.07-0.04
HofstraCAA0.090.0865.2264.220.030.02
UCFAmer0.130.0852.3845.700.01-0.01
PurdueB100.100.0679.1776.550.060.03
VirginiaACC0.100.0682.6178.050.060.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0652.1751.590.000.00
TCUB120.050.0643.4837.22-0.01-0.02
USCP120.090.0678.2673.060.050.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0643.4840.61-0.01-0.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.090.0613.0413.54-0.07-0.04
HowardMEAC0.100.0638.1040.73-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0645.4538.47-0.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0620.8323.63-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0645.4547.57-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0657.1459.470.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0621.7423.40-0.05-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0630.4335.11-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.040.0665.2267.140.010.02
StetsonASun0.040.0623.8127.69-0.02-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0666.6762.620.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0630.4332.35-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.100.0640.9136.61-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.090.0683.3383.020.060.04
BuffaloMAC0.090.0659.0958.880.020.01
Kent St.MAC0.090.0663.6459.440.020.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0613.6418.14-0.00-0.04
ElonCAA0.090.0652.1750.420.000.00
FurmanSC0.090.0652.1753.310.000.00
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.570.040.02
James MadisonCAA0.040.0670.8369.500.020.02
OregonP120.090.0682.6179.210.060.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0682.6178.890.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0628.5731.89-0.04-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0676.1973.400.050.03
VMISC0.090.0615.7917.42-0.06-0.04
William & MaryCAA0.090.0671.4369.840.040.02
MississippiSEC0.090.0565.2259.020.030.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0559.0953.030.010.00
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0570.8370.840.030.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0543.4842.01-0.00-0.01
HoustonAmer0.080.0569.5766.510.030.02
MemphisAmer0.040.0560.8760.770.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.040.0586.3679.150.030.03
TempleAmer0.040.0563.6459.840.010.01
TulaneAmer0.080.0533.3332.34-0.03-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0556.5260.000.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0331.5831.80-0.02-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0366.6769.500.020.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0369.5765.850.020.01
OklahomaB120.050.0386.3682.100.040.02
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0340.9145.38-0.01-0.00
FIUCUSA0.050.0340.9145.30-0.01-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0325.0033.21-0.02-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0368.0067.970.020.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0361.9056.420.010.00
St. John'sBE0.040.0326.0923.72-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0321.0527.82-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0362.5059.780.010.01
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.960.010.00
DaytonA100.050.0386.3682.380.030.02
DetroitHorz0.040.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.000.0363.6456.430.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0322.7327.19-0.02-0.01
Miami FLACC0.040.0381.8276.740.030.01
Miami OHMAC0.040.0331.8230.48-0.02-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0327.7834.50-0.02-0.01
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.490.000.00
Saint LouisA100.050.0336.3633.47-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.040.0333.3335.48-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0354.1751.660.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.050.0352.1755.930.000.00
DukeACC0.050.0373.9170.040.020.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0352.0050.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0361.9056.690.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.930.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.040.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.740.030.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.36-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.040.0314.2917.92-0.03-0.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0358.3354.160.010.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.040.0335.0035.98-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.040.0373.9169.830.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.02
TroySB0.040.0323.8126.67-0.02-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0365.2261.450.000.01
UABCUSA0.040.0382.6179.420.030.02
UCLAP120.050.0356.5253.240.010.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00