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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Boston University

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:187.0
Current RPI:187
Expected SOS:235
Current SOS:235
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:217



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14187.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Northeastern (136.0)CAAA87-77L0%0.0
11-18Northeastern (136.0)CAAH65-63W100%0.0
11-19Maine (322.0)AEH102-78W100%0.0
11-20LIU Brooklyn (224.0)NECH86-69W100%0.0
11-28Saint Peter's (130.0)MAACA80-67L0%0.0
11-30Connecticut (118.0)AmerA51-49L0%0.0
12-3North Carolina St. (141.0)ACCA77-73L0%0.0
12-7Canisius (171.0)MAACH77-87L0%0.0
12-10Syracuse (84.0)ACCA99-77L0%0.0
12-18New Hampshire (127.0)AEH73-69W100%0.0
12-21UMass Lowell (309.0)AEA77-75L0%0.0
12-30Holy Cross (204.0)PatH61-55W100%0.0
1-2Lehigh (97.0)PatH75-61W100%0.0
1-5Navy (208.0)PatA53-71W100%0.0
1-8Lafayette (321.0)PatA75-91W100%0.0
1-11American (310.0)PatH76-66W100%0.0
1-16Loyola MD (212.0)PatA77-69L0%0.0
1-18Colgate (294.0)PatH58-67L0%0.0
1-21Bucknell (63.0)PatA70-59L0%0.0
1-25Army (266.0)PatH90-89W100%0.0
1-30Lehigh (97.0)PatA59-76W100%0.0
2-2Navy (208.0)PatH61-70L0%0.0
2-5Lafayette (321.0)PatH75-58W100%0.0
2-8American (310.0)PatA64-67W100%0.0
2-11Loyola MD (212.0)PatH78-63W100%0.0
2-15Colgate (294.0)PatA68-69W100%0.0
2-19Bucknell (63.0)PatH66-86L0%0.0
2-22Army (266.0)PatA73-62L0%0.0
2-25Holy Cross (204.0)PatA68-71W100%0.0
3-2Loyola MD (212.0)PatH64-60W100%0.0
3-5Lehigh (97.0)PatH88-91L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston UniversityPat26.5426.5454.7454.742.522.52
Loyola MDPat5.835.8348.1548.15-0.22-0.22
LehighPat5.835.8364.2964.291.661.66
BucknellPat4.364.3675.0075.002.182.18
Holy CrossPat4.304.3050.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat4.274.2727.5927.59-1.91-1.91
ArmyPat4.274.2737.9337.93-1.03-1.03
LafayettePat4.264.2629.6329.63-1.74-1.74
NavyPat4.264.2648.2848.28-0.15-0.15
AmericanPat4.244.2428.5728.57-1.82-1.82
NortheasternCAA3.303.3048.2848.28-0.11-0.11
MaineAE1.851.8520.0020.00-1.11-1.11
UMass LowellAE1.831.8331.0331.03-0.69-0.69
New HampshireAE1.821.8260.7160.710.390.39
LIU BrooklynNEC1.801.8063.3363.330.480.48
SyracuseACC1.771.7754.8454.840.170.17
Saint Peter'sMAAC1.741.7458.0658.060.280.28
ConnecticutAmer1.691.6945.1645.16-0.16-0.16
CanisiusMAAC1.691.6953.1253.120.110.11
North Carolina St.ACC1.641.6445.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Stony BrookAE0.370.3758.0658.060.060.06
BinghamtonAE0.350.3531.0331.03-0.13-0.13
FairfieldMAAC0.300.3053.3353.330.020.02
AlbanyAE0.290.2960.6160.610.060.06
VermontAE0.270.2784.8584.850.190.19
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.260.2655.8855.880.030.03
UMBCAE0.240.2457.1457.140.030.03
HartfordAE0.240.2428.1228.12-0.10-0.10
TowsonCAA0.240.2459.3859.380.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.230.2310.0010.00-0.19-0.19
MonmouthMAAC0.230.2381.8281.820.140.14
CornellIvy0.210.2125.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Notre DameACC0.210.2173.5373.530.100.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
MaristMAAC0.200.2025.0025.00-0.10-0.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.180.1838.4638.46-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.180.1878.5778.570.100.10
QuinnipiacMAAC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
DrexelCAA0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
WagnerNEC0.160.1651.7251.720.010.01
DuquesneA100.160.1631.2531.25-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.160.1672.7372.730.070.07
ManhattanMAAC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
SienaMAAC0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
BryantNEC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
ElonCAA0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.130.1334.4834.48-0.04-0.04
La SalleA100.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.120.1264.7164.710.040.04
RiderMAAC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.120.1259.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.110.1191.1891.180.090.09
PennIvy0.110.1146.4346.43-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Central ConnecticutNEC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
DelawareCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.100.1028.1228.12-0.05-0.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
William & MaryCAA0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
HarvardIvy0.100.1061.5461.540.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Miami FLACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0834.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
XavierBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
YaleIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0828.1228.12-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.050.05
ClemsonACC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
PittsburghACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
High PointBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0285.2985.290.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01