live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Boston University

Conference:Pat
Expected RPI:196.0
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:277
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-7
Current OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC Record:6-6
Expected OOC RPI:173
Expected OOC SOS:254



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Northeastern (109.0)CAAH84-87L0%0.0
11-16Albany (107.0)AEH69-64W100%0.0
11-19NJIT (207.0)ASunA90-76L0%0.0
11-21South Florida (230.0)AmerA66-78W100%0.0
11-24Kentucky (11.0)SECA82-62L0%0.0
11-28Binghamton (299.0)AEA65-75W100%0.0
12-2Massachusetts (171.0)A10A99-69L0%0.0
12-8Harvard (193.0)IvyH69-75L0%0.0
12-10UMass Lowell (261.0)AEA60-80W100%0.0
12-13Quinnipiac (297.0)MAACA57-64W100%0.0
12-19Canisius (220.0)MAACA84-68L0%0.0
12-21New Hampshire (177.0)AEH78-74W100%0.0
12-30Holy Cross (248.0)PatA80-64L0%0.0
1-2Lehigh (168.0)PatA81-73L0%0.0
1-6Navy (216.0)PatH67-83L0%0.0
1-9Lafayette (329.0)PatH68-47W100%0.0
1-13American (231.0)PatA50-61W100%0.0
1-18Loyola MD (255.0)PatH87-84W100%0.0
1-20Colgate (241.0)PatA85-78L0%0.0
1-23Bucknell (183.0)PatH71-74L0%0.0
1-27Army (214.0)PatA67-76W100%0.0
1-31Lehigh (168.0)PatH75-73W100%0.0
2-3Navy (216.0)PatA72-83W100%0.0
2-6Lafayette (329.0)PatA82-89W100%0.0
2-10American (231.0)PatH71-51W100%0.0
2-13Loyola MD (255.0)PatA65-73W100%0.0
2-17Colgate (241.0)PatH71-68W100%0.0
2-21Bucknell (183.0)PatA80-59L0%0.0
2-23Army (214.0)PatH71-80L0%0.0
2-27Holy Cross (248.0)PatH83-68W100%0.0
3-3American (231.0)PatH64-69L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Boston UniversityPat26.3926.3956.8656.863.623.62
AmericanPat5.765.7639.2939.29-1.23-1.23
Holy CrossPat4.454.4541.9441.94-0.72-0.72
LehighPat4.324.3251.7251.720.150.15
ArmyPat4.254.2558.6258.620.730.73
ColgatePat4.254.2540.7440.74-0.79-0.79
NavyPat4.234.2356.6756.670.560.56
LafayettePat4.204.2021.4321.43-2.40-2.40
Loyola MDPat4.174.1732.1432.14-1.49-1.49
BucknellPat4.164.1651.8551.850.150.15
AlbanyAE1.991.9976.6776.671.061.06
New HampshireAE1.991.9960.7160.710.430.43
BinghamtonAE1.911.9127.5927.59-0.86-0.86
UMass LowellAE1.801.8037.0437.04-0.47-0.47
NJITASun1.771.7751.7251.720.060.06
QuinnipiacMAAC1.741.7431.0331.03-0.66-0.66
CanisiusMAAC1.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
HarvardIvy1.711.7140.7440.74-0.32-0.32
KentuckySEC1.691.6975.7675.760.870.87
South FloridaAmer1.691.6925.0025.00-0.84-0.84
MassachusettsA101.641.6441.9441.94-0.26-0.26
NortheasternCAA1.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.450.4580.0080.000.270.27
UMBCAE0.410.4121.8821.88-0.23-0.23
MaineAE0.350.3526.6726.67-0.16-0.16
VermontAE0.330.3360.6160.610.070.07
HartfordAE0.320.3228.1228.12-0.14-0.14
CornellIvy0.270.2733.3333.33-0.09-0.09
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.270.2742.4242.42-0.04-0.04
SienaMAAC0.240.2463.6463.640.060.06
MaristMAAC0.230.2323.3323.33-0.12-0.12
FairfieldMAAC0.210.2159.3859.380.040.04
St. Francis PANEC0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.200.2053.1253.120.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1965.5265.520.060.06
PennIvy0.190.1937.0437.04-0.05-0.05
PrincetonIvy0.170.1777.7877.780.090.09
YaleIvy0.160.1677.7877.780.090.09
Sacred HeartNEC0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.160.1641.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.160.1673.3373.330.070.07
George WashingtonA100.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
KansasB120.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
MonmouthMAAC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
USC UpstateASun0.150.1525.0025.00-0.08-0.08
NiagaraMAAC0.150.1521.8821.88-0.09-0.09
BrownIvy0.130.1325.9325.93-0.06-0.06
RiderMAAC0.130.1339.3939.39-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
JacksonvilleASun0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.130.1370.5970.590.050.05
IonaMAAC0.130.1368.7568.750.050.05
LSUSEC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
LIU BrooklynNEC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
WagnerNEC0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1154.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0834.3834.38-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Penn St.B100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
LipscombASun0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0876.6776.670.040.04
DelawareCAA0.070.0723.3323.33-0.04-0.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
TCUB120.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Air ForceMWC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
ElonCAA0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0535.2935.29-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DaytonA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
RichmondA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
Arizona St.P120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
DukeACC0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
UCLAP120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01