Boston University

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	148.0
Current RPI:	148
Expected SOS:	216
Current SOS:	216
Current Record:	17-12
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	11-5
Expected Conf Record:	11-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-1
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	172
Expected OOC SOS:	201

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	148.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Northeastern (159.0)	CAA	A	65-64	L	0%
11-12	Canisius (112.0)	MAAC	A	83-75	L	0%
11-17	George Washington (147.0)	A10	H	59-72	L	0%
11-20	Rutgers (109.0)	BE	A	81-79	L	0%
11-24	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	A	48-45	L	0%
11-28	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	H	74-44	W	100%
12-1	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	66-74	W	100%
12-6	Coastal Carolina (259.0)	BSth	A	63-69	W	100%
12-11	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	A	65-64	L	0%
12-16	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	69-62	W	100%
12-22	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	70-57	W	100%
12-28	Belmont (21.0)	OVC	N	48-64	L	0%
12-29	Howard (334.0)	MEAC	N	71-44	W	100%
1-2	Maine (267.0)	AE	A	63-58	L	0%
1-5	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	74-77	L	0%
1-8	Vermont (134.0)	AE	H	63-53	W	100%
1-12	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	H	83-59	W	100%
1-15	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	A	75-48	L	0%
1-19	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	A	59-69	W	100%
1-23	Albany (130.0)	AE	A	80-85	W	100%
1-26	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	81-75	W	100%
2-2	Hartford (187.0)	AE	A	66-58	L	0%
2-5	Maine (267.0)	AE	H	79-72	W	100%
2-9	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	58-79	W	100%
2-12	Vermont (134.0)	AE	A	59-64	W	100%
2-17	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	68-56	W	100%
2-20	Albany (130.0)	AE	H	79-69	W	100%
2-23	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	A	59-68	W	100%
2-28	Stony Brook (81.0)	AE	H	55-71	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boston University	AE	26.36	26.36	61.83	61.83	6.24	6.24
Vermont	AE	4.54	4.54	70.00	70.00	1.82	1.82
Albany	AE	4.46	4.46	75.00	75.00	2.23	2.23
Stony Brook	AE	4.42	4.42	75.00	75.00	2.21	2.21
MD Baltimore County	AE	4.41	4.41	25.00	25.00	-2.21	-2.21
Binghamton	AE	4.36	4.36	7.41	7.41	-3.71	-3.71
Maine	AE	4.35	4.35	33.33	33.33	-1.45	-1.45
Hartford	AE	4.33	4.33	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
New Hampshire	AE	4.29	4.29	30.77	30.77	-1.65	-1.65
Coastal Carolina	BSth	3.45	3.45	45.83	45.83	-0.29	-0.29
Quinnipiac	NEC	1.97	1.97	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	1.95	1.95	56.67	56.67	0.26	0.26
Northeastern	CAA	1.95	1.95	61.29	61.29	0.44	0.44
Cornell	Ivy	1.93	1.93	41.38	41.38	-0.33	-0.33
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.90	1.90	31.03	31.03	-0.72	-0.72
George Mason	CAA	1.89	1.89	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Harvard	Ivy	1.84	1.84	65.38	65.38	0.56	0.56
Rutgers	BE	1.81	1.81	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
George Washington	A10	1.75	1.75	41.38	41.38	-0.30	-0.30
Howard	MEAC	1.75	1.75	21.43	21.43	-1.00	-1.00
Belmont	OVC	1.75	1.75	79.31	79.31	1.03	1.03
Brown	Ivy	0.35	0.35	44.44	44.44	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.32	0.32	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.30	0.30	29.63	29.63	-0.12	-0.12
Yale	Ivy	0.29	0.29	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.29	0.29	32.26	32.26	-0.10	-0.10
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.28	0.28	31.03	31.03	-0.11	-0.11
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.28	0.28	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Siena	MAAC	0.28	0.28	25.00	25.00	-0.14	-0.14
Connecticut	BE	0.26	0.26	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.24	0.24	29.03	29.03	-0.10	-0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	0.23	0.23	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.23	0.23	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.22	0.22	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.21	0.21	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.20	0.20	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.20	0.20	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.20	0.20	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.19	0.19	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.17	0.17	22.58	22.58	-0.09	-0.09
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Liberty	BSth	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
NC Asheville	BSth	0.16	0.16	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.14	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
William & Mary	CAA	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.14	0.14	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
James Madison	CAA	0.14	0.14	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.13	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.12	37.04	37.04	-0.03	-0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.12	0.12	19.35	19.35	-0.08	-0.08
Columbia	Ivy	0.12	0.12	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
College of Charleston	SC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	34.38	34.38	-0.04	-0.04
Long Island	NEC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.11	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	13.79	13.79	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Akron	MAC	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.06	0.06	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01