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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Utah Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:259.4
Current RPI:260
Expected SOS:229
Current SOS:229
Current Record:7-14
Expected Record:9-17
Current Conf Record:4-5
Expected Conf Record:6-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-14209.80.38%
11-15226.95.78%
10-16245.026.36%
9-17261.840.91%
8-18276.423.49%
7-19288.73.07%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13BYU (69.9)WCCA85-54L0%0.0
11-18Denver (209.1)SumA75-62L0%0.0
11-24Utah St. (153.2)MWCA81-55L0%0.0
11-28UC Davis (265.0)BWH70-82L0%0.0
12-1Montana St. (252.7)BSkyH72-76L0%0.0
12-5Southern Utah (335.7)BSkyH54-68L0%0.0
12-9Weber St. (139.2)BSkyH84-81W100%0.0
12-12Idaho St. (265.6)BSkyA76-100W100%0.0
12-19UTSA (342.6)CUSAA78-83W100%0.0
12-22UNC Wilmington (58.8)CAAN102-77L0%0.0
12-23Louisville (18.1)ACCA98-68L0%0.0
12-28Saint Mary's (57.6)WCCA65-50L0%0.0
1-7New Mexico St. (119.9)WACH66-78L0%0.0
1-9UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACH98-65W100%0.0
1-16Grand Canyon (98.0)WACA99-88L0%0.0
1-21UMKC (273.8)WACA79-90W100%0.0
1-23Chicago St. (344.4)WACA76-82W100%0.0
1-28Seattle (273.2)WACH62-73L0%0.0
1-30Cal St. Bakersfield (144.0)WACH74-78L0%0.0
2-4UT Rio Grande Valley (340.5)WACA77-88W100%0.0
2-6New Mexico St. (119.9)WACA98-74L0%0.0
2-13Cal St. Bakersfield (144.0)WACA0-011%-13.5
2-18Chicago St. (344.4)WACH0-083%10.4
2-20UMKC (273.8)WACH0-052%0.6
2-27Seattle (273.2)WACA0-038%-3.3
3-5Grand Canyon (98.0)WACH0-025%-7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah ValleyWAC26.3426.4137.6137.41-6.53-6.65
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC5.304.7715.7916.76-3.62-3.17
UMKCWAC3.024.7730.0033.48-1.21-1.58
Grand CanyonWAC3.144.7482.6181.662.053.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.974.7465.0065.410.891.46
SeattleWAC3.034.7442.8640.89-0.43-0.86
Chicago St.WAC2.934.714.557.65-2.66-3.99
New Mexico St.WAC5.194.7161.9066.201.241.53
Idaho St.BSky2.772.2450.0049.830.00-0.01
Weber St.BSky2.702.2070.0072.341.080.98
Southern UtahBSky2.652.2010.0011.65-2.12-1.68
Saint Mary'sWCC2.652.1380.9581.081.641.33
Utah St.MWC2.662.1045.0047.32-0.27-0.11
LouisvilleACC2.492.0778.2675.201.411.04
BYUWCC2.602.0666.6769.230.870.79
Montana St.BSky2.442.0640.9142.84-0.44-0.30
UC DavisBW2.492.0335.0032.85-0.75-0.70
UNC WilmingtonCAA2.442.0076.1972.921.280.92
DenverSum2.491.9950.0047.490.00-0.10
UTSACUSA2.441.9613.6413.42-1.77-1.43
Portland St.BSky0.490.4630.0035.92-0.20-0.13
Sacramento St.BSky0.440.3840.0045.19-0.09-0.04
IdahoBSky0.340.3656.5255.330.040.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.320.3554.5555.550.030.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.330.359.5212.09-0.27-0.26
North Dakota St.Sum0.380.2860.8759.830.080.05
WyomingMWC0.370.2843.4842.54-0.05-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.370.2854.1754.210.030.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.380.2727.2726.46-0.17-0.13
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.250.2420.0022.24-0.15-0.14
Nebraska OmahaSum0.250.2458.3358.580.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.370.2458.3360.710.060.05
PortlandWCC0.270.2438.4638.04-0.06-0.06
North DakotaBSky0.340.2445.0048.15-0.03-0.01
South DakotaSum0.160.2144.0043.56-0.02-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.210.2123.8122.85-0.11-0.11
UC IrvineBW0.270.2169.5770.020.110.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.270.2173.9174.640.130.10
Air ForceMWC0.260.2143.4837.80-0.03-0.05
MontanaBSky0.170.2160.0062.700.030.05
San DiegoWCC0.210.2030.4328.20-0.08-0.09
Cal St. FullertonBW0.220.1833.3330.63-0.07-0.07
UC RiversideBW0.220.1845.8341.64-0.02-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.210.1747.8351.93-0.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1733.3332.04-0.05-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1550.0050.500.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.060.1563.6461.560.020.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1545.4551.69-0.010.00
HoustonAmer0.160.1470.8367.980.070.05
MinnesotaB100.110.1425.0027.25-0.05-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.160.1428.5734.10-0.07-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1469.5770.090.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.100.1479.1777.510.060.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1441.6741.18-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.200.1423.8125.99-0.11-0.06
PepperdineWCC0.200.1458.3360.910.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1452.1749.150.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.150.1447.6249.39-0.01-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.150.1341.6742.39-0.03-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.150.1331.5832.03-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.110.1166.6764.780.040.03
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.8323.28-0.07-0.06
LamarSlnd0.170.1130.0029.17-0.07-0.05
Texas St.SB0.170.1140.0038.87-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.110.1183.3379.820.070.06
Boise St.MWC0.170.1160.8760.430.040.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1131.8230.08-0.04-0.04
Miami FLACC0.110.1082.6177.600.070.06
North FloridaASun0.160.1062.5064.110.040.03
HawaiiBW0.110.1085.0083.450.080.07
NevadaMWC0.110.1057.1455.350.020.01
UtahP120.160.1070.8368.530.070.04
IUPUISum0.150.1038.4638.50-0.04-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1050.0051.150.000.00
DukeACC0.110.1075.0071.810.050.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0756.0053.630.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0724.0025.68-0.03-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.060.0730.0031.18-0.02-0.03
IowaB100.060.0779.1778.890.030.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0743.4843.76-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0719.0525.89-0.04-0.04
Oklahoma St.B120.060.0745.8342.30-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.0713.0415.26-0.08-0.05
USC UpstateASun0.060.0721.7422.42-0.03-0.04
WashingtonP120.050.0762.5060.140.010.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0760.8758.910.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0754.5552.530.010.00
DelawareCAA0.110.0725.0024.91-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.110.0713.0416.41-0.08-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.0750.0049.320.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.110.0750.0050.080.000.00
HofstraCAA0.050.0766.6766.780.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0772.0071.330.020.03
NortheasternCAA0.110.0748.0048.59-0.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0762.5057.720.010.01
UNLVMWC0.110.0752.1755.080.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.050.0768.1867.120.020.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0728.5733.29-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0740.0040.34-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0760.8757.170.010.01
BaylorB120.100.0773.9168.450.050.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0731.8236.13-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.079.0912.25-0.04-0.05
DePaulBE0.050.0733.3334.02-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0756.5257.690.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0759.0961.290.010.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0750.0049.890.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.050.0745.8344.06-0.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0770.8367.960.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0724.0024.16-0.03-0.04
MarquetteBE0.050.0764.0057.890.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0760.0057.680.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0764.0062.090.010.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0765.3865.500.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.0726.9228.60-0.05-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0716.6719.49-0.03-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.050.0761.9065.340.010.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.0765.2264.330.030.02
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0782.6183.030.030.05
FIUCUSA0.050.0739.1342.98-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0726.0927.89-0.05-0.03
IPFWSum0.050.0770.8368.650.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0772.7370.510.020.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0730.0031.76-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.100.0658.3358.410.020.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0668.0064.070.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.100.0645.4546.07-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0654.1751.980.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0683.3378.460.030.04
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.600.020.02
ButlerBE0.060.0470.8368.990.020.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0431.8232.07-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0441.6739.50-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0460.8760.240.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0456.0052.860.010.00
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0445.4543.17-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0437.5037.41-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0452.1754.090.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0447.6244.07-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0431.8232.68-0.02-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.060.0347.8350.90-0.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0334.7831.64-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0354.1754.420.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0323.8129.52-0.03-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0337.5042.32-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.070.010.01
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0368.1867.730.020.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0360.8762.470.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0358.3363.160.000.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0327.2728.15-0.02-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0336.3636.29-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0366.6762.200.020.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.410.030.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
ColoradoP120.050.0370.8365.570.020.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0338.1039.12-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0356.0055.450.010.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0329.1726.68-0.02-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0340.0043.21-0.01-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0366.6763.330.020.01
HartfordAE0.050.0324.0024.55-0.03-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0325.0026.38-0.02-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0375.0072.620.020.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0380.0081.550.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.390.030.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0350.0048.970.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0370.8367.910.000.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0334.7832.39-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0340.0043.49-0.01-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0352.0048.910.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0341.6739.90-0.01-0.01