Utah Valley

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	230.0
Current RPI:	230
Expected SOS:	339
Current SOS:	339
Current Record:	16-12
Expected Record:	16-12
Current Conf Record:	9-2
Expected Conf Record:	9-2
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	15-5
Current OOC Record:	7-10
Expected OOC Record:	7-10
Expected OOC RPI:	257
Expected OOC SOS:	274

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	230.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	84-71	L	0%
11-16	Grambling (341.0)	SWAC	H	64-34	W	100%
11-19	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	H	58-54	W	100%
11-22	Arkansas (110.0)	SEC	A	67-59	L	0%
11-25	Oakland (139.0)	Sum	A	89-83	L	0%
11-28	Northern Illinois (334.0)	MAC	H	58-47	W	100%
11-30	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	A	74-41	L	0%
12-6	Utah St. (143.0)	WAC	A	63-54	L	0%
12-10	Portland St. (187.0)	BSky	H	93-87	W	100%
12-17	Georgia St. (141.0)	CAA	H	68-71	L	0%
12-19	Maine (282.0)	AE	A	77-60	L	0%
12-22	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	65-52	L	0%
12-29	Hampton (306.0)	MEAC	N	40-42	W	100%
12-30	Chattanooga (310.0)	SC	A	74-59	L	0%
1-3	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	H	70-76	L	0%
1-7	Seattle (277.0)	ind	H	77-72	W	100%
1-13	Seattle (277.0)	ind	A	74-84	W	100%
1-21	North Dakota (242.0)	GWC	H	72-64	W	100%
1-26	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	H	65-56	W	100%
1-28	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	H	81-58	W	100%
2-2	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	A	69-77	W	100%
2-4	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	A	66-68	W	100%
2-9	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	A	97-99	W	100%
2-11	Chicago St. (336.0)	GWC	A	61-66	W	100%
2-23	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	H	75-56	W	100%
2-25	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	H	74-64	W	100%
3-3	North Dakota (242.0)	GWC	A	57-56	L	0%
3-9	NJ Inst of Technology (304.0)	GWC	N	78-88	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah Valley	GWC	26.47	26.47	60.34	60.34	5.48	5.48
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	6.01	6.01	40.00	40.00	-1.20	-1.20
North Dakota	GWC	4.37	4.37	48.00	48.00	-0.17	-0.17
Houston Baptist	GWC	4.25	4.25	28.00	28.00	-1.87	-1.87
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.22	4.22	26.92	26.92	-1.95	-1.95
Chicago St.	GWC	4.15	4.15	11.54	11.54	-3.20	-3.20
Seattle	ind	3.69	3.69	40.91	40.91	-0.67	-0.67
Wyoming	MWC	3.60	3.60	59.26	59.26	0.67	0.67
Portland St.	BSky	2.06	2.06	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Oakland	Sum	1.94	1.94	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	1.93	1.93	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	1.91	1.91	78.57	78.57	1.09	1.09
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.91	1.91	32.14	32.14	-0.68	-0.68
Arkansas	SEC	1.88	1.88	54.84	54.84	0.18	0.18
Houston	CUSA	1.87	1.87	46.43	46.43	-0.13	-0.13
Grambling	SWAC	1.87	1.87	14.81	14.81	-1.32	-1.32
Chattanooga	SC	1.79	1.79	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
Georgia St.	CAA	1.79	1.79	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
Hampton	MEAC	1.79	1.79	37.50	37.50	-0.45	-0.45
Maine	AE	1.79	1.79	37.04	37.04	-0.46	-0.46
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.79	1.79	14.29	14.29	-1.28	-1.28
Longwood	ind	0.49	0.49	22.22	22.22	-0.27	-0.27
Idaho St.	BSky	0.41	0.41	27.59	27.59	-0.18	-0.18
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.35	0.35	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.29	0.29	81.25	81.25	0.18	0.18
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.27	0.27	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.27	0.27	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.25	0.25	78.12	78.12	0.14	0.14
Western Illinois	Sum	0.25	0.25	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.25	0.25	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.25	0.25	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.23	0.23	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	37.04	37.04	-0.06	-0.06
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.22	0.22	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Weber St.	BSky	0.21	0.21	78.57	78.57	0.12	0.12
Campbell	BSth	0.20	0.20	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.19	0.19	34.62	34.62	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	77.42	77.42	0.10	0.10
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.19	0.19	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.18	75.00	75.00	0.09	0.09
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.18	0.18	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.18	0.18	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.18	0.18	28.00	28.00	-0.08	-0.08
Southern Utah	Sum	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Washington	P12	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.16	0.16	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.16	21.88	21.88	-0.09	-0.09
DePaul	BE	0.16	0.16	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.16	0.16	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Arkansas St.	SB	0.15	0.15	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
San Jose St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.13	84.85	84.85	0.09	0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.12	0.12	11.11	11.11	-0.09	-0.09
Georgia Southern	SC	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	SB	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	20.69	20.69	-0.07	-0.07
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Long Island	NEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	83.87	83.87	0.06	0.06
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Harvard	Ivy	0.07	0.07	86.21	86.21	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	21.43	21.43	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	19.23	19.23	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	6.45	6.45	-0.06	-0.06
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Valparaiso	Horz	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	94.12	94.12	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	SB	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00