Utah Valley

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	297.0
Current RPI:	297
Expected SOS:	328
Current SOS:	328
Current Record:	10-18
Expected Record:	10-18
Current Conf Record:	3-6
Expected Conf Record:	3-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-11
Current OOC Record:	7-12
Expected OOC Record:	7-12
Expected OOC RPI:	261
Expected OOC SOS:	286

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-18	297.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	67-54	L	0%
11-12	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	A	55-64	W	100%
11-14	Washington St. (196.0)	P12	A	72-49	L	0%
11-20	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	N	86-83	W	100%
11-21	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	75-67	L	0%
11-23	South Carolina Upstate (225.0)	ASun	N	75-50	L	0%
11-27	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	A	70-52	L	0%
12-1	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	67-63	W	100%
12-5	Weber St. (84.0)	BSky	A	89-56	L	0%
12-8	Troy (279.0)	SB	A	82-86	W	100%
12-15	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	63-69	L	0%
12-19	Troy (279.0)	SB	H	67-64	W	100%
12-22	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	H	67-73	L	0%
12-28	Austin Peay (319.0)	OVC	N	84-77	W	100%
12-29	Chattanooga (292.0)	SC	A	76-69	L	0%
1-5	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	H	52-57	L	0%
1-9	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	66-78	W	100%
1-12	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	83-62	W	100%
1-19	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	62-60	L	0%
1-26	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	A	62-54	L	0%
2-2	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	A	75-62	L	0%
2-9	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	66-49	W	100%
2-16	NJ Inst of Technology (300.0)	GWC	A	63-55	L	0%
2-23	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	73-63	L	0%
2-26	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	63-56	L	0%
3-2	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	76-69	W	100%
3-9	Cal St. Bakersfield (235.0)	ind	H	58-73	L	0%
3-14	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	N	76-74	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah Valley	GWC	26.44	26.44	38.33	38.33	-6.17	-6.17
Houston Baptist	GWC	5.98	5.98	36.00	36.00	-1.67	-1.67
Chicago St.	GWC	4.19	4.19	23.08	23.08	-2.26	-2.26
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.17	4.17	42.31	42.31	-0.64	-0.64
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	4.14	4.14	43.48	43.48	-0.54	-0.54
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.69	3.69	33.33	33.33	-1.23	-1.23
North Carolina Central	MEAC	3.65	3.65	65.38	65.38	1.12	1.12
Troy	SB	3.60	3.60	38.71	38.71	-0.81	-0.81
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	2.12	2.12	23.33	23.33	-1.13	-1.13
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.12	2.12	54.55	54.55	0.19	0.19
Santa Clara	WCC	2.00	2.00	62.07	62.07	0.48	0.48
Pepperdine	WCC	1.97	1.97	39.29	39.29	-0.42	-0.42
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.93	1.93	33.33	33.33	-0.64	-0.64
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.93	1.93	70.00	70.00	0.77	0.77
IUPUI	Sum	1.90	1.90	10.34	10.34	-1.51	-1.51
Weber St.	BSky	1.87	1.87	79.31	79.31	1.10	1.10
Washington St.	P12	1.85	1.85	38.71	38.71	-0.42	-0.42
Utah St.	WAC	1.85	1.85	65.52	65.52	0.57	0.57
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	1.84	1.84	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Chattanooga	SC	1.84	1.84	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
Austin Peay	OVC	1.79	1.79	21.43	21.43	-1.02	-1.02
New Orleans	ind	0.46	0.46	18.18	18.18	-0.29	-0.29
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.43	0.43	34.48	34.48	-0.13	-0.13
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.38	0.38	59.38	59.38	0.07	0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.37	0.37	70.97	70.97	0.16	0.16
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.32	0.32	14.29	14.29	-0.23	-0.23
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.29	0.29	31.25	31.25	-0.11	-0.11
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.28	0.28	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Portland	WCC	0.28	0.28	30.00	30.00	-0.11	-0.11
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.27	0.27	29.03	29.03	-0.11	-0.11
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.25	0.25	31.25	31.25	-0.10	-0.10
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.24	0.24	28.57	28.57	-0.10	-0.10
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.21	0.21	20.69	20.69	-0.12	-0.12
North Dakota	BSky	0.20	0.20	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.20	0.20	71.43	71.43	0.09	0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.19	0.19	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	0.19	28.00	28.00	-0.08	-0.08
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.19	0.19	7.14	7.14	-0.16	-0.16
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.18	0.18	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.18	0.18	81.25	81.25	0.11	0.11
Texas A&M	SEC	0.18	0.18	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	17.24	17.24	-0.11	-0.11
Oakland	Sum	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.17	0.17	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	13.79	13.79	-0.12	-0.12
Tulane	CUSA	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.15	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.15	93.75	93.75	0.13	0.13
Montana St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.15	0.15	79.31	79.31	0.09	0.09
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
North Texas	SB	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.12	0.12	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
San Jose St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	ASun	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
NC Greensboro	SC	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Florida International	SB	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.11	0.11	14.81	14.81	-0.08	-0.08
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
South Alabama	SB	0.11	0.11	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Valparaiso	Horz	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.09	0.09	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.00	10.00	-0.07	-0.07
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Denver	WAC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Elon	SC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	21.43	21.43	-0.03	-0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	55.17	55.17	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01