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Through games of Nov 21, 2014.


Utah Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:242.9
Current RPI:181
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:180
Current Record:1-1
Expected Record:12-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-8
Current OOC Record:1-1
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:222
Expected OOC SOS:277



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-8101.60.12%
18-9123.90.53%
17-10138.41.30%
16-11159.63.73%
15-12180.97.58%
14-13201.611.90%
13-14223.215.86%
12-15244.517.26%
11-16265.215.87%
10-17284.112.00%
9-18301.97.94%
8-19315.73.89%
7-20327.51.48%
6-21336.50.40%
5-22341.40.10%
4-23342.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14South Dakota (271.4)SumH60-52W100%0.0
11-17Eastern Washington (123.5)BSkyA75-50L0%0.0
11-22Southern Utah (327.8)BSkyA0-059%2.9
11-26Idaho St. (316.5)BSkyA0-054%1.1
11-29UC Davis (264.8)BWA0-037%-4.1
12-1Sacramento St. (233.5)BSkyA0-038%-3.8
12-6Montana St. (313.0)BSkyA0-055%1.6
12-9Arizona (25.1)P12A0-03%-22.0
12-13Utah St. (106.1)MWCH0-031%-6.1
12-20Weber St. (183.0)BSkyA0-023%-8.8
12-23Idaho St. (316.5)BSkyH0-075%8.3
12-27Sacramento St. (233.5)BSkyH0-061%3.4
1-3Arkansas (32.7)SECA0-03%-22.3
1-10Seattle (252.8)WACH0-057%2.0
1-15Grand Canyon (260.7)WACH0-059%2.8
1-22Texas Pan American (285.7)WACA0-054%1.1
1-24New Mexico St. (96.0)WACA0-013%-13.6
1-29Chicago St. (288.2)WACH0-072%6.9
1-31UMKC (167.6)WACH0-045%-1.5
2-5Cal St. Bakersfield (298.9)WACA0-046%-1.2
2-7Seattle (252.8)WACA0-033%-5.2
2-14Grand Canyon (260.7)WACA0-036%-4.3
2-19New Mexico St. (96.0)WACH0-030%-6.5
2-21Texas Pan American (285.7)WACH0-075%8.2
2-26UMKC (167.6)WACA0-023%-8.7
2-28Chicago St. (288.2)WACA0-049%-0.3
3-7Cal St. Bakersfield (298.9)WACH0-069%6.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah ValleyWAC35.4226.5050.0047.880.00-1.12
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.630.0032.91-0.00-1.58
SeattleWAC0.004.6333.3347.10-0.00-0.27
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.6150.0049.350.00-0.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.5133.3364.71-0.001.33
Chicago St.WAC0.004.500.0026.21-0.00-2.14
UMKCWAC0.004.5050.0058.510.000.77
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.004.50100.0028.880.00-1.90
Idaho St.BSky0.004.210.0027.96-0.00-1.85
Sacramento St.BSky0.004.0450.0046.600.00-0.27
Eastern WashingtonBSky25.002.36100.0059.9925.000.47
Montana St.BSky0.002.320.0024.05-0.00-1.21
Weber St.BSky0.002.280.0054.71-0.000.22
Southern UtahBSky0.002.260.0023.59-0.00-1.19
Utah St.MWC0.002.06100.0064.150.000.58
UC DavisBW0.001.96100.0042.360.00-0.30
South DakotaSum25.001.950.0038.15-25.00-0.46
ArizonaP120.001.85100.0067.980.000.67
ArkansasSEC0.001.85100.0073.450.000.87
MontanaBSky0.000.540.0049.81-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.5450.0047.220.00-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.500.0047.54-0.00-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.4833.3354.24-0.000.04
North DakotaBSky0.000.470.0043.21-0.00-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.000.47100.0051.300.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.3450.0035.570.00-0.10
New MexicoMWC0.000.3275.0062.010.000.08
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.2933.3349.18-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.270.0027.23-0.00-0.12
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.2433.3344.98-0.00-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.2350.0062.910.000.06
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.210.0038.57-0.00-0.05
WyomingMWC0.000.19100.0056.150.000.02
UTSACUSA0.000.170.0028.13-0.00-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.000.170.0020.69-0.00-0.10
CreightonBE0.000.17100.0055.810.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1633.3349.79-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.1675.0073.240.000.08
UNLVMWC0.000.1666.6746.160.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.000.16100.0069.630.000.06
MissouriSEC0.000.1666.6750.370.000.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.140.0054.32-0.000.01
WashingtonP120.000.14100.0056.460.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.1375.0054.690.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.170.1350.0061.070.000.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1366.6754.260.000.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.130.0029.61-0.00-0.05
UtahP120.000.1366.6770.360.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1333.3327.05-0.00-0.06
Arizona St.P120.000.13100.0058.420.000.02
DenverSum0.000.1350.0062.440.000.03
Fresno St.MWC0.000.130.0032.99-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.130.0041.53-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.130.0033.64-0.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.130.0016.72-0.00-0.09
KentuckySEC0.000.13100.0086.080.000.09
GonzagaWCC0.000.10100.0086.950.000.07
PortlandWCC0.000.10100.0050.390.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.1025.0033.23-0.00-0.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1066.6755.230.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.1050.0033.640.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.100.0062.15-0.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.1050.0045.330.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.10100.0065.850.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.100.0033.70-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.10100.0082.150.000.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.100.0036.14-0.00-0.03
IndianaB100.000.10100.0063.850.000.03
Texas SouthernSWAC6.250.100.0038.27-6.25-0.02
Iowa St.B120.000.10100.0061.270.000.02
Colorado St.MWC0.000.10100.0062.840.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1033.3347.78-0.00-0.00
StanfordP124.170.10100.0068.294.170.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.09100.0036.560.00-0.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0750.0063.730.000.02
Texas St.SB0.000.07100.0052.850.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.07100.0069.310.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0750.0054.580.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0750.0038.240.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.000.070.0051.78-0.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.070.0034.26-0.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.07100.0065.750.000.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.07100.0067.860.000.02
LamarSlnd0.000.070.0033.17-0.00-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0733.3352.91-0.000.00
Saint LouisA100.000.07100.0066.070.000.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.070.0051.04-0.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.07100.0061.540.000.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.07100.0057.010.000.01
DelawareCAA0.000.070.0033.61-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0037.800.00-0.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.070.0058.17-0.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.070.0065.86-0.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.07100.0058.330.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0750.0051.340.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0023.20-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.07100.0069.430.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0029.930.00-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.070.0035.17-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0733.3351.38-0.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.070.0037.20-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0733.3363.82-0.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.07100.0050.220.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.070.0045.03-0.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0750.0043.330.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.06100.0068.940.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.060.0046.41-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0666.6759.850.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.06100.0045.780.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0068.420.000.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0650.0066.890.000.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0633.3336.31-0.00-0.02
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0065.390.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0633.3330.78-0.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0650.0052.120.000.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0070.690.000.03
Oregon St.P120.000.06100.0050.080.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0070.600.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.060.0032.16-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.000.06100.0061.850.000.02
USCP120.000.0650.0026.710.00-0.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.060.0034.57-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.06100.0084.100.000.04
SMUAmer0.000.0633.3367.72-0.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0666.6760.220.000.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0650.0055.220.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0044.000.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.0450.0059.230.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.03100.0063.380.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0350.0025.820.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.030.0038.29-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.27-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0061.810.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0333.3334.47-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0366.6766.420.000.01
MichiganB100.000.03100.0066.870.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.030.0032.86-0.00-0.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0350.0047.150.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.000.0366.6774.980.000.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0055.900.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6742.560.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.000.0333.3344.93-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.000.0366.6769.310.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0333.3343.51-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0366.6766.600.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6757.590.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6766.940.000.01
LSUSEC0.000.0366.6756.820.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0046.320.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0053.20-0.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.030.0041.63-0.00-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6764.990.000.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.03100.0048.390.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0041.490.00-0.01