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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Utah Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:206.0
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:203
Current SOS:203
Current Record:12-16
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:7-9
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC Record:5-7
Expected OOC RPI:166
Expected OOC SOS:205



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-16206.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA92-69L0%0.0
11-16Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH82-73W100%0.0
11-23Denver (207.0)SumA85-88W100%0.0
11-26BYU (65.0)WCCA101-114W100%0.0
11-30Washington St. (159.0)P12A83-76L0%0.0
12-3UTSA (264.0)CUSAH75-71W100%0.0
12-6Utah (83.0)P12A87-80L0%0.0
12-10Utah St. (181.0)MWCH79-80L0%0.0
12-17Weber St. (185.0)BSkyA93-85L0%0.0
12-21UTSA (264.0)CUSAA66-60L0%0.0
12-28UC Riverside (330.0)BWA64-73W100%0.0
12-31UC Davis (166.0)BWA83-69L0%0.0
1-7Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA82-72L0%0.0
1-12Chicago St. (318.0)WACH61-70L0%0.0
1-14UMKC (184.0)WACH86-76W100%0.0
1-21Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACA68-65L0%0.0
1-26UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACH92-81W100%0.0
1-28New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH69-74L0%0.0
2-4Seattle (287.0)WACA63-50L0%0.0
2-9UMKC (184.0)WACA84-76L0%0.0
2-11Chicago St. (318.0)WACA54-87W100%0.0
2-16Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACH71-80L0%0.0
2-18Grand Canyon (131.0)WACH71-77L0%0.0
2-23New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA72-84W100%0.0
2-25UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA68-88W100%0.0
3-4Seattle (287.0)WACH61-54W100%0.0
3-9Seattle (287.0)WACN65-53W100%0.0
3-10Cal St. Bakersfield (75.0)WACN81-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah ValleyWAC26.6026.6046.9746.97-1.61-1.61
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC6.256.2564.0064.001.751.75
SeattleWAC6.186.1837.5037.50-1.55-1.55
New Mexico St.WAC4.674.6785.7185.713.333.33
UMKCWAC4.574.5746.4346.43-0.33-0.33
Chicago St.WAC4.514.517.417.41-3.84-3.84
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.514.5125.9325.93-2.17-2.17
Grand CanyonWAC4.484.4866.6766.671.491.49
UTSACUSA3.573.5737.9337.93-0.86-0.86
BYUWCC2.022.0268.7568.750.760.76
UC DavisBW1.981.9861.2961.290.450.45
UC RiversideBW1.961.9623.0823.08-1.06-1.06
Weber St.BSky1.961.9655.1755.170.200.20
Idaho St.BSky1.901.9013.7913.79-1.38-1.38
UtahP121.881.8860.7160.710.400.40
Utah St.MWC1.871.8741.3841.38-0.32-0.32
DenverSum1.851.8555.1755.170.190.19
Washington St.P121.851.8537.9337.93-0.45-0.45
GonzagaWCC1.841.8496.8896.881.721.72
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.410.4118.5218.52-0.26-0.26
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.380.3864.5264.520.110.11
ColoradoP120.280.2856.2556.250.030.03
ArizonaP120.270.2788.2488.240.210.21
UC IrvineBW0.270.2757.5857.580.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.270.2731.0331.03-0.10-0.10
WashingtonP120.250.2529.0329.03-0.10-0.10
North DakotaBSky0.240.2467.8667.860.090.09
UTEPCUSA0.230.2345.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
PortlandWCC0.200.2029.0329.03-0.09-0.09
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.190.1920.0020.00-0.11-0.11
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1912.9012.90-0.14-0.14
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.190.1921.8821.88-0.11-0.11
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
Fresno St.MWC0.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.180.1840.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.180.1860.7160.710.040.04
Montana St.BSky0.180.1846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
IdahoBSky0.180.1855.1755.170.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1687.5087.500.120.12
Notre DameACC0.160.1673.5373.530.080.08
North FloridaASun0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.150.1544.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.150.1535.7135.71-0.04-0.04
CaliforniaP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Arizona St.P120.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Oregon St.P120.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
South DakotaSum0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
San FranciscoWCC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
PepperdineWCC0.140.1426.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
StanfordP120.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Texas St.SB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
USCP120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
FIUCUSA0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1287.8887.880.090.09
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
DartmouthIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.070.07
Wright St.Horz0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
OregonP120.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
WisconsinB100.090.0973.5373.530.040.04
OaklandHorz0.090.0973.3373.330.040.04
NevadaMWC0.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.090.0962.0762.070.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
WyomingMWC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Saint LouisA100.090.0936.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
DrakeMVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
AlbanyAE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
BradleyMVC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
IowaB100.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
MemphisAmer0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
Penn St.B100.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0610.0010.00-0.05-0.05
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
IUPUISum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0637.0437.04-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.060.0655.8855.880.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Old DominionCUSA0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UABCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ButlerBE0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
IllinoisB100.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00