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Through games of Dec 6, 2016.


Utah Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:141.7
Current RPI:98
Expected SOS:236
Current SOS:151
Current Record:4-3
Expected Record:15-11
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:121
Expected OOC SOS:239



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-440.00.03%
21-548.80.20%
20-658.60.82%
19-773.22.86%
18-887.86.68%
17-9102.912.16%
16-10120.917.57%
15-11138.719.50%
14-12158.917.57%
13-13180.912.16%
12-14203.06.33%
11-15224.72.90%
10-16247.20.94%
9-17263.00.23%
8-18277.00.04%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Gonzaga (10.0)WCCA92-69L0%0.0
11-16Idaho St. (282.3)BSkyH82-73W100%0.0
11-23Denver (244.4)SumA85-88W100%0.0
11-26BYU (74.5)WCCA101-114W100%0.0
11-30Washington St. (227.6)P12A83-76L0%0.0
12-3UTSA (303.1)CUSAH75-71W100%0.0
12-6Utah (94.3)P12A87-80L0%0.0
12-10Utah St. (118.1)MWCH0-046%-1.2
12-17Weber St. (209.7)BSkyA0-042%-2.4
12-21UTSA (303.1)CUSAA0-065%4.6
12-28UC Riverside (301.7)BWA0-064%4.3
12-31UC Davis (256.1)BWA0-054%1.2
1-7Grand Canyon (179.4)WACA0-038%-3.6
1-12Chicago St. (275.4)WACH0-087%13.5
1-14UMKC (175.7)WACH0-070%6.3
1-21Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACA0-027%-7.5
1-26UT Rio Grande Valley (312.5)WACH0-089%14.5
1-28New Mexico St. (120.6)WACH0-050%0.1
2-4Seattle (265.1)WACA0-059%2.9
2-9UMKC (175.7)WACA0-050%0.0
2-11Chicago St. (275.4)WACA0-073%7.3
2-16Cal St. Bakersfield (118.6)WACH0-046%-1.2
2-18Grand Canyon (179.4)WACH0-059%2.6
2-23New Mexico St. (120.6)WACA0-031%-6.1
2-25UT Rio Grande Valley (312.5)WACA0-075%8.2
3-4Seattle (265.1)WACH0-078%9.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah ValleyWAC28.5226.4668.9763.4110.827.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.004.7442.8658.73-0.000.83
SeattleWAC0.004.7216.6739.45-0.00-1.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.004.7250.0065.010.001.42
UMKCWAC0.004.7055.5650.400.000.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.004.7020.0023.26-0.00-2.51
New Mexico St.WAC0.004.6975.0070.490.001.92
Chicago St.WAC0.004.6920.0022.24-0.00-2.60
UTSACUSA7.143.8528.5730.82-3.06-1.48
BYUWCC7.142.1671.4369.323.060.84
UC RiversideBW0.712.130.0031.12-0.71-0.80
Weber St.BSky0.512.1216.6749.47-0.34-0.02
UC DavisBW0.002.1150.0045.650.00-0.18
Idaho St.BSky7.142.0614.2930.83-5.10-0.79
UtahP127.142.0375.0056.553.570.27
Utah St.MWC0.892.0242.8650.44-0.130.02
Washington St.P127.142.0033.3326.67-2.38-0.93
DenverSum7.142.0050.0047.280.00-0.11
GonzagaWCC7.141.99100.0091.937.141.66
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.360.0033.71-0.00-0.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.510.3271.4355.680.220.04
ArizonaP120.450.2877.7870.290.250.11
UTEPCUSA0.000.2820.0035.46-0.00-0.08
Cal PolyBW0.450.2742.8641.13-0.06-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.2557.1452.140.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.2544.4453.29-0.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.2575.0062.450.000.06
New MexicoMWC0.450.2462.5058.130.110.04
PortlandWCC0.000.2357.1450.730.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2333.3332.79-0.00-0.08
Long Beach St.BW0.000.210.0038.43-0.00-0.05
North DakotaBSky0.000.2133.3355.64-0.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.2140.0043.88-0.00-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.2142.8638.35-0.00-0.05
MontanaBSky0.510.2125.0048.70-0.26-0.01
Montana St.BSky1.220.2142.8656.48-0.170.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2116.6740.32-0.00-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.000.2157.1448.110.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.2050.0053.130.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.450.2042.8644.89-0.06-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.2060.0062.420.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.2037.5031.15-0.00-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1811.1120.27-0.00-0.10
Fresno St.MWC0.450.1757.1443.930.06-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.1755.5637.870.00-0.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.170.0023.90-0.00-0.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.450.1725.0043.29-0.22-0.02
Oregon St.P120.450.1725.0023.62-0.22-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.170.0025.17-0.45-0.09
Sacramento St.BSky0.510.170.0022.30-0.51-0.09
LamarSlnd0.890.1742.8640.38-0.13-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.450.1760.0069.260.090.06
South DakotaSum0.000.1750.0046.820.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1685.7153.770.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.1642.8633.51-0.00-0.05
Notre DameACC0.000.15100.0076.970.000.08
StanfordP120.000.1466.6758.600.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.140.0025.31-0.00-0.07
North FloridaASun0.000.1412.5034.49-0.00-0.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1428.5733.56-0.00-0.05
CaliforniaP120.000.1487.5064.760.000.04
HawaiiBW0.000.1442.8650.82-0.000.00
UCLAP120.000.14100.0086.650.000.10
Colorado St.MWC0.000.1471.4360.090.000.03
Western IllinoisSum0.000.140.0016.33-0.00-0.09
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1475.0055.480.000.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1337.5050.92-0.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1325.0040.17-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.450.1350.0044.180.00-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC1.160.130.0017.16-1.16-0.09
USCP120.450.13100.0076.400.450.07
Texas TechB120.450.1387.5061.660.330.03
FIUCUSA0.000.1314.2935.05-0.00-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1328.5738.92-0.00-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1357.1472.530.000.06
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1320.0017.37-0.00-0.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1325.0045.82-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1342.8645.98-0.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0089.590.000.10
OregonP120.000.1175.0072.800.000.05
UNLVMWC0.000.1162.5042.780.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.1085.7177.000.000.06
WisconsinB100.000.1077.7876.550.000.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.450.1012.5033.18-0.33-0.03
Saint LouisA100.450.1025.0023.99-0.22-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.450.1085.7175.250.320.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1050.0056.890.000.01
CreightonBE0.510.10100.0076.540.510.05
DrakeMVC0.000.100.0020.21-0.00-0.06
WyomingMWC0.510.1066.6753.730.170.01
San Jose St.MWC1.020.1050.0040.690.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.1057.1459.020.000.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0020.72-0.00-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0716.6729.83-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0766.6766.650.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0785.7175.800.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.0762.5052.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0712.5031.01-0.00-0.03
BradleyMVC0.000.0737.5025.74-0.00-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0775.0058.720.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.0771.4337.680.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0760.0058.900.000.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0742.8637.05-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0775.0066.090.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0762.5056.520.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0725.0040.78-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0725.0031.76-0.00-0.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0737.5048.85-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.000.0775.0075.180.000.03
IowaB100.000.0744.4438.41-0.00-0.02
KansasB120.000.0788.8977.470.000.04
MemphisAmer0.000.0775.0056.270.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0775.0047.520.00-0.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0750.0060.950.000.02
NevadaMWC0.000.0777.7871.770.000.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0712.5026.05-0.00-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.000.0744.4441.55-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0785.7183.250.000.05
New OrleansSlnd0.510.0740.0041.72-0.10-0.01
NJITASun0.450.0744.4451.58-0.050.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0742.8660.66-0.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.070.0032.29-0.00-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0762.5050.630.000.00
DukeACC0.000.0790.0080.060.000.04
Fort WayneSum0.000.0762.5070.890.000.03
IUPUISum0.000.0733.3351.57-0.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0787.5075.690.000.03
MaristMAAC0.000.0744.4434.60-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.0762.5053.550.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0787.5075.730.000.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.0733.3331.35-0.00-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0762.5066.500.000.02
Oral RobertsSum0.000.070.0022.75-0.00-0.04
Penn St.B100.000.0766.6746.170.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0775.0070.570.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0750.0042.770.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0750.0059.840.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0737.5035.03-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.710.04100.0074.830.710.02
XavierBE0.000.0487.5070.880.000.02
BuffaloMAC0.000.0433.3352.03-0.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0457.1464.540.000.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0342.8650.98-0.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0377.7877.640.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.450.0350.0050.980.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.510.0362.5060.090.130.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0388.8956.710.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.510.0371.4358.830.220.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.0371.4357.210.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7169.920.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0371.4365.470.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.930.000.01
BryantNEC0.450.0322.2246.51-0.25-0.00
FloridaSEC0.450.0377.7872.930.250.01
Iowa St.B120.450.0375.0071.330.220.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.450.0328.5737.54-0.19-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0044.700.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.450.0325.0038.98-0.22-0.01
IllinoisB100.000.0366.6751.140.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.450.0320.0060.00-0.270.01