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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Utah Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:272.0
Current RPI:272
Expected SOS:248
Current SOS:248
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:6-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:252
Expected OOC SOS:169



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18272.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13BYU (76.0)WCCA85-54L0%0.0
11-18Denver (188.0)SumA75-62L0%0.0
11-24Utah St. (151.0)MWCA81-55L0%0.0
11-28UC Davis (281.0)BWH70-82L0%0.0
12-1Montana St. (260.0)BSkyH72-76L0%0.0
12-5Southern Utah (336.0)BSkyH54-68L0%0.0
12-9Weber St. (108.0)BSkyH84-81W100%0.0
12-12Idaho St. (256.0)BSkyA76-100W100%0.0
12-19UTSA (347.0)CUSAA78-83W100%0.0
12-22UNC Wilmington (45.0)CAAN102-77L0%0.0
12-23Louisville (17.0)ACCA98-68L0%0.0
12-28Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA65-50L0%0.0
1-7New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH66-78L0%0.0
1-9UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH98-65W100%0.0
1-16Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA99-88L0%0.0
1-21UMKC (286.0)WACA79-90W100%0.0
1-23Chicago St. (348.0)WACA76-82W100%0.0
1-28Seattle (287.0)WACH62-73L0%0.0
1-30Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH74-78L0%0.0
2-4UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACA77-88W100%0.0
2-6New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA98-74L0%0.0
2-13Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACA91-69L0%0.0
2-18Chicago St. (348.0)WACH74-72W100%0.0
2-20UMKC (286.0)WACH79-70W100%0.0
2-27Seattle (287.0)WACA72-69L0%0.0
3-5Grand Canyon (91.0)WACH79-86L0%0.0
3-10UMKC (286.0)WACN78-80L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah ValleyWAC26.4426.4435.3435.34-7.75-7.75
UMKCWAC6.456.4532.0032.00-2.32-2.32
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.774.7770.3770.371.941.94
New Mexico St.WAC4.724.7265.5265.521.461.46
SeattleWAC4.714.7138.4638.46-1.09-1.09
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC4.674.6720.0020.00-2.80-2.80
Chicago St.WAC4.614.613.703.70-4.27-4.27
Grand CanyonWAC4.614.6177.7877.782.562.56
Idaho St.BSky2.142.1450.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC2.102.1083.3383.331.401.40
Weber St.BSky2.102.1076.6776.671.121.12
Southern UtahBSky2.102.1011.1111.11-1.63-1.63
LouisvilleACC2.012.0173.3373.330.940.94
Utah St.MWC2.012.0146.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Montana St.BSky1.981.9841.3841.38-0.34-0.34
BYUWCC1.971.9767.7467.740.700.70
UNC WilmingtonCAA1.951.9575.8675.861.011.01
UC DavisBW1.951.9529.6329.63-0.79-0.79
DenverSum1.911.9150.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA1.881.8813.7913.79-1.36-1.36
Portland St.BSky0.440.4437.9337.93-0.11-0.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.380.3841.3841.38-0.07-0.07
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.320.3250.0050.000.000.00
IdahoBSky0.320.3261.2961.290.070.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.320.3210.7110.71-0.25-0.25
North DakotaBSky0.310.3148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.2855.1755.170.030.03
WyomingMWC0.280.2840.0040.00-0.06-0.06
North Dakota St.Sum0.260.2658.0658.060.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.250.2577.4277.420.140.14
Northern ColoradoBSky0.250.2527.5927.59-0.11-0.11
South DakotaSum0.220.2240.0040.00-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.220.2262.0762.070.050.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.220.2222.8622.86-0.12-0.12
PortlandWCC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.210.2153.1253.120.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1921.4321.43-0.11-0.11
UC IrvineBW0.190.1971.8871.880.080.08
Air ForceMWC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.180.1827.5927.59-0.08-0.08
GonzagaWCC0.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Santa ClaraWCC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.170.1754.8454.840.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
MinnesotaB100.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
UC RiversideBW0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.150.1556.6756.670.020.02
HoustonAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1229.1729.17-0.05-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.120.1223.0823.08-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Texas St.SB0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
North FloridaASun0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
UABCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Boise St.MWC0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CaliforniaP120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
NevadaMWC0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
UtahP120.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
IUPUISum0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
DukeACC0.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0711.1111.11-0.05-0.05
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0724.2424.24-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Green BayHorz0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
IllinoisB100.060.0644.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0620.6920.69-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
NorthwesternB100.060.0662.5062.500.020.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0680.0080.000.040.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
ClemsonACC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
SyracuseACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.030.03
PittsburghACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0631.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0325.0025.00-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01