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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Utah Valley

Conference:WAC
Expected RPI:144.0
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:255
Current SOS:255
Current Record:18-11
Expected Record:18-11
Current Conf Record:14-4
Expected Conf Record:14-4
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:248
Expected OOC SOS:195



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11144.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah Valley.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8IUPUI (322.0)SumH74-66W100%0.0
11-11North Carolina A&T (336.0)MEACH78-71W100%0.0
11-12Oklahoma St. (45.0)B12A93-40L0%0.0
11-19Oregon (28.0)P12A69-54L0%0.0
11-23Pepperdine (159.0)WCCA58-53L0%0.0
11-30Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCA74-71L0%0.0
12-2South Dakota (255.0)SumA71-67L0%0.0
12-11Weber St. (149.0)BSkyH62-59W100%0.0
12-14Utah St. (116.0)MWCA71-60L0%0.0
12-23North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH70-74L0%0.0
12-28Tennessee Tech (215.0)OVCH75-66W100%0.0
1-4Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACA74-82W100%0.0
1-11Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH65-58W100%0.0
1-16Idaho (238.0)WACA66-71W100%0.0
1-19Seattle (267.0)WACA51-52W100%0.0
1-23UMKC (248.0)WACH66-48W100%0.0
1-25Chicago St. (259.0)WACH62-55W100%0.0
1-30Texas Pan American (312.0)WACA53-67W100%0.0
2-1New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA72-49L0%0.0
2-6Grand Canyon (203.0)WACA68-79W100%0.0
2-13Seattle (267.0)WACH57-71L0%0.0
2-15Idaho (238.0)WACH89-88W100%0.0
2-20Chicago St. (259.0)WACA70-79W100%0.0
2-22UMKC (248.0)WACA74-56L0%0.0
2-27New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH66-61W100%0.0
3-1Texas Pan American (312.0)WACH45-42W100%0.0
3-7Cal St. Bakersfield (279.0)WACH64-55W100%0.0
3-13Texas Pan American (312.0)WACN83-63W100%0.0
3-14Idaho (238.0)WACN69-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah Valley's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Utah Valley's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Utah Valley.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Utah ValleyWAC26.5626.5665.0465.047.997.99
IdahoWAC6.156.1546.6746.67-0.41-0.41
Texas Pan AmericanWAC6.096.0928.5728.57-2.61-2.61
New Mexico St.WAC4.574.5775.0075.002.282.28
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC4.474.4741.3841.38-0.77-0.77
UMKCWAC4.434.4333.3333.33-1.48-1.48
Chicago St.WAC4.414.4139.2939.29-0.95-0.95
SeattleWAC4.404.4038.4638.46-1.02-1.02
Grand CanyonWAC4.344.3450.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC3.533.5348.2848.28-0.12-0.12
IUPUISum1.851.8510.7110.71-1.45-1.45
North Dakota St.Sum1.851.8577.7877.781.031.03
South DakotaSum1.851.8530.7730.77-0.71-0.71
Utah St.MWC1.751.7553.3353.330.120.12
Weber St.BSky1.751.7562.9662.960.450.45
North Carolina A&TMEAC1.721.7226.6726.67-0.80-0.80
Oklahoma St.B121.721.7262.5062.500.430.43
OregonP121.721.7270.9770.970.720.72
PepperdineWCC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
IPFWSum0.380.3867.7467.740.140.14
Nebraska OmahaSum0.360.3648.1548.15-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.290.2925.9325.93-0.14-0.14
DenverSum0.280.2850.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.250.2531.0331.03-0.10-0.10
Idaho St.BSky0.250.2533.3333.33-0.08-0.08
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.250.2545.4545.45-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.240.2457.1457.140.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
UTSACUSA0.220.2222.2222.22-0.12-0.12
MontanaBSky0.220.2253.5753.570.020.02
Washington St.P120.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
LamarSlnd0.210.2110.7110.71-0.16-0.16
Morehead St.OVC0.200.2058.0658.060.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.170.1777.7877.780.100.10
BradleyMVC0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.170.1727.5927.59-0.08-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1613.7913.79-0.12-0.12
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.150.1548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
BYUWCC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Portland St.BSky0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1470.9770.970.060.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.140.1453.5753.570.010.01
USCP120.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
DrakeMVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.140.1424.1424.14-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
WyomingMWC0.120.1253.3353.330.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.1242.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1267.8667.860.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
WashingtonP120.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1217.2417.24-0.08-0.08
MilwaukeeHorz0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.1220.6920.69-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
UCLAP120.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
BelmontOVC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
NevadaMWC0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
ArizonaP120.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
UTEPCUSA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
ChattanoogaSC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
UtahP120.090.0963.3363.330.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.090.093.573.57-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0983.8783.870.060.06
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
Kansas St.B120.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
DuquesneA100.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0887.1087.100.060.06
SMUAmer0.080.0871.8871.880.040.04
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0853.1253.120.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
KansasB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
TulsaCUSA0.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleAmer0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
DePaulBE0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.0659.2659.260.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
BaylorB120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
HawaiiBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TroySB0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00