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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:111.0
Current RPI:111
Expected SOS:80
Current SOS:80
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:10-7
Expected Conf Record:10-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:126
Expected OOC SOS:7



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17111.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14BYU (36.0)WCCA95-90L0%0.0
11-18Xavier (30.0)BEA97-74L0%0.0
11-21Kansas St. (100.0)B12H69-60W100%0.0
11-23UCLA (48.0)P12A77-63L0%0.0
11-27Western Michigan (119.0)MACN55-73W100%0.0
11-28Washington (126.0)P12N80-70L0%0.0
11-30Xavier (30.0)BEN73-70W100%0.0
12-3Nevada (306.0)MWCH68-57W100%0.0
12-5Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA74-45L0%0.0
12-10San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA60-59L0%0.0
12-20Texas (42.0)B12A78-68L0%0.0
12-22St. John's (44.0)BEA66-49L0%0.0
12-28Syracuse (69.0)ACCA85-67L0%0.0
12-30Louisville (21.0)ACCA63-48L0%0.0
1-8UC Irvine (88.0)BWA82-88W100%0.0
1-10UC Davis (75.0)BWA73-67L0%0.0
1-15Cal Poly (199.0)BWH50-48W100%0.0
1-17UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWH69-53W100%0.0
1-24Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA58-64W100%0.0
1-29Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWA85-91W100%0.0
1-31Hawaii (152.0)BWH65-50W100%0.0
2-5UC Riverside (234.0)BWH68-63W100%0.0
2-7UC Irvine (88.0)BWH55-56L0%0.0
2-12UC Santa Barbara (87.0)BWA70-55L0%0.0
2-14Cal Poly (199.0)BWA71-58L0%0.0
2-19UC Davis (75.0)BWH58-65L0%0.0
2-26Hawaii (152.0)BWA78-59L0%0.0
2-28Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH70-47W100%0.0
3-5Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWH69-58W100%0.0
3-7UC Riverside (234.0)BWA58-59W100%0.0
3-12Hawaii (152.0)BWN72-79L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW26.3926.3949.6049.60-0.21-0.21
HawaiiBW5.745.7460.0060.001.151.15
UC IrvineBW4.224.2262.0762.071.021.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.174.1724.1424.14-2.16-2.16
UC DavisBW4.164.1677.7877.782.312.31
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.154.1557.1457.140.590.59
UC RiversideBW4.134.1344.4444.44-0.46-0.46
Cal PolyBW4.104.1040.0040.00-0.82-0.82
Cal St. FullertonBW4.084.0825.9325.93-1.97-1.97
XavierBE3.303.3062.5062.500.830.83
San Diego St.MWC1.831.8375.0075.000.910.91
NevadaMWC1.781.7825.0025.00-0.89-0.89
UCLAP121.751.7559.3859.380.330.33
St. John'sBE1.731.7363.3363.330.460.46
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.711.7186.2186.211.241.24
BYUWCC1.711.7170.9770.970.720.72
LouisvilleACC1.691.6974.1974.190.820.82
SyracuseACC1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
TexasB121.661.6659.3859.380.310.31
Kansas St.B121.661.6648.3948.39-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP121.661.6650.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
OregonP120.260.2672.7372.730.120.12
San DiegoWCC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.240.240.000.00-0.24-0.24
SeattleWAC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.240.2454.5554.550.020.02
ArizonaP120.230.2391.1891.180.190.19
PittsburghACC0.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
VillanovaBE0.220.2294.1294.120.190.19
Fresno St.MWC0.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.210.2174.1974.190.100.10
ButlerBE0.190.1968.7568.750.070.07
GeorgetownBE0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
Washington St.P120.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.190.1993.9493.940.160.16
San FranciscoWCC0.180.1841.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1881.2581.250.110.11
PacificWCC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.180.1859.3859.380.030.03
Seton HallBE0.170.1751.6151.610.010.01
ColoradoP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.170.1766.6766.670.060.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.160.1662.0762.070.040.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1622.5822.58-0.09-0.09
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
UNLVMWC0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.150.1565.5265.520.050.05
USCP120.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Oregon St.P120.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
OklahomaB120.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
CreightonBE0.150.1542.4242.42-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
MarquetteBE0.150.1540.6240.62-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
BaylorB120.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
TCUB120.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
Iowa St.B120.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Texas TechB120.120.1240.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
West VirginiaB120.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0855.5655.560.010.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.080.0872.4172.410.040.04
ClemsonACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
AkronMAC0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0840.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
VirginiaACC0.080.0890.6290.620.060.06
PortlandWCC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
KentuckySEC0.070.07100.00100.000.070.07
UTEPCUSA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0767.8667.860.030.03
MaristMAAC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Wright St.Horz0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0558.3358.330.010.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0542.3142.31-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Green BayHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OhioMAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Wake ForestACC0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColgatePat0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0216.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0258.8258.820.000.00
LipscombASun0.020.0239.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00