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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:214.0
Current RPI:214
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:192
Current Record:13-19
Expected Record:13-19
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC Record:3-11
Expected OOC RPI:193
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-19214.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wichita St. (32.0)MVCA92-55L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina (5.0)ACCA93-67L0%0.0
11-17Louisville (7.0)ACCA88-56L0%0.0
11-20UCLA (16.0)P12A114-77L0%0.0
11-22Washington (211.0)P12A94-88L0%0.0
11-24Binghamton (311.0)AEN64-72L0%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (85.0)ASunA68-67L0%0.0
11-29Kansas (4.0)B12A91-61L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA93-85L0%0.0
12-7Pepperdine (245.0)WCCH75-66W100%0.0
12-10Texas (156.0)B12A71-65L0%0.0
12-16Oregon St. (280.0)P12N67-71W100%0.0
12-22Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH56-55W100%0.0
12-29Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA98-72L0%0.0
1-4UC Irvine (135.0)BWA82-67L0%0.0
1-7UC Riverside (330.0)BWH70-64W100%0.0
1-11Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH82-89L0%0.0
1-14Hawaii (300.0)BWA114-107L0%0.0
1-19UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH81-76W100%0.0
1-21Cal Poly (297.0)BWA92-98W100%0.0
1-26Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH76-65W100%0.0
2-1Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA108-98L0%0.0
2-4UC Irvine (135.0)BWH72-63W100%0.0
2-9UC Riverside (330.0)BWA71-78W100%0.0
2-11Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA74-69L0%0.0
2-16UC Davis (166.0)BWH78-69W100%0.0
2-18UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA48-66W100%0.0
2-23Cal Poly (297.0)BWH71-78L0%0.0
2-25UC Davis (166.0)BWA75-71L0%0.0
3-4Hawaii (300.0)BWH84-75W100%0.0
3-9Hawaii (300.0)BWN73-62W100%0.0
3-10UC Irvine (135.0)BWN62-57L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW26.4626.4644.3544.35-2.99-2.99
UC IrvineBW5.645.6456.6756.670.750.75
HawaiiBW5.515.5146.1546.15-0.42-0.42
UC DavisBW4.174.1763.3363.331.111.11
Cal St. FullertonBW4.114.1151.8551.850.150.15
Cal PolyBW4.084.0829.6329.63-1.66-1.66
UC RiversideBW4.064.0624.0024.00-2.11-2.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.054.0530.7730.77-1.56-1.56
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.993.9920.0020.00-2.40-2.40
UCLAP121.831.8387.5087.501.381.38
WashingtonP121.741.7426.6726.67-0.81-0.81
North CarolinaACC1.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
New Mexico St.WAC1.661.6682.7682.761.091.09
Oregon St.P121.641.6413.3313.33-1.20-1.20
PepperdineWCC1.621.6227.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Colorado St.MWC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
TexasB121.611.6131.2531.25-0.60-0.60
Wichita St.MVC1.611.6187.5087.501.211.21
KansasB121.611.6187.1087.101.191.19
LouisvilleACC1.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.591.5975.8675.860.820.82
BinghamtonAE1.591.5928.5728.57-0.68-0.68
Eastern MichiganMAC1.561.5639.2939.29-0.33-0.33
CaliforniaP120.300.3063.6463.640.080.08
USCP120.280.2872.7372.730.130.13
PortlandWCC0.270.2729.0329.03-0.11-0.11
UtahP120.260.2662.0762.070.060.06
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.2350.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC0.230.2382.3582.350.150.15
PacificWCC0.230.2331.2531.25-0.09-0.09
ArizonaP120.220.2288.2488.240.170.17
San DiegoWCC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.200.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
Nebraska OmahaSum0.190.1954.8454.840.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.190.1941.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1968.9768.970.070.07
UNLVMWC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
SeattleWAC0.180.1837.0437.04-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.170.1756.2556.250.020.02
TCUB120.170.1754.5554.550.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
AkronMAC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1581.2581.250.090.09
BaylorB120.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
DukeACC0.140.1477.1477.140.080.08
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
PrincetonIvy0.130.1378.5778.570.080.08
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1360.0060.000.030.03
Air ForceMWC0.120.1232.2632.26-0.04-0.04
PittsburghACC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1287.5087.500.090.09
UTEPCUSA0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.120.1284.8584.850.090.09
Washington St.P120.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.120.1260.6160.610.030.03
OklahomaB120.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1276.4776.470.060.06
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Boise St.MWC0.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
DrakeMVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
KentuckySEC0.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
VirginiaACC0.100.1068.7568.750.040.04
SMUAmer0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0817.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
Texas St.SB0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0884.8584.850.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
UTSACUSA0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.070.0756.6756.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
IndianaB100.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
BradleyMVC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.070.0729.4129.41-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0744.8344.83-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MaineAE0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ToledoMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UMBCAE0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
TulsaAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0553.5753.570.000.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.010.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
YaleIvy0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
PurdueB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
NorthwesternB100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01