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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:190.9
Current RPI:165
Expected SOS:154
Current SOS:112
Current Record:8-12
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:4-2
Expected Conf Record:9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-3
Current OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:188
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-12112.30.03%
17-13121.90.67%
16-14138.73.50%
15-15157.111.00%
14-16175.321.85%
13-17192.126.56%
12-18208.021.38%
11-19222.710.90%
10-20237.43.44%
9-21251.70.58%
8-22267.80.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10San Francisco (171.9)WCCA71-83W100%0.0
11-18Oregon St. (145.6)P12A89-81L0%0.0
11-20West Virginia (15.9)B12A91-62L0%0.0
11-23Missouri (45.0)SECN58-95L0%0.0
11-24Oregon St. (145.6)P12N69-74W100%0.0
11-26Nebraska (100.5)B10N85-80L0%0.0
11-29Arizona (16.0)P12A91-56L0%0.0
12-2Fresno St. (104.0)MWCH70-106L0%0.0
12-3Stanford (89.2)P12H76-68W100%0.0
12-6Southern Utah (264.2)BSkyA94-89L0%0.0
12-9Pepperdine (307.7)WCCA71-78W100%0.0
12-16Eastern Michigan (177.1)MACH80-85L0%0.0
12-21Michigan St. (21.5)B10A102-60L0%0.0
12-23Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA68-66L0%0.0
1-4Hawaii (161.9)BWH89-81W100%0.0
1-6UC Irvine (176.3)BWA86-73L0%0.0
1-10Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWH80-70W100%0.0
1-13UC Riverside (301.7)BWA68-75W100%0.0
1-17UC Davis (106.7)BWA84-75L0%0.0
1-20Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWH81-73W100%0.0
1-25Cal Poly (282.9)BWA0-055%1.4
1-27Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWA0-065%4.3
1-31UC Irvine (176.3)BWH0-052%0.7
2-3UC Davis (106.7)BWH0-045%-1.3
2-10Cal Poly (282.9)BWH0-076%7.8
2-15UC Santa Barbara (107.7)BWH0-042%-2.1
2-22Hawaii (161.9)BWA0-031%-5.4
2-24Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWA0-035%-4.2
3-1UC Santa Barbara (107.7)BWA0-022%-8.5
3-3UC Riverside (301.7)BWH0-076%7.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW26.5126.4144.1946.25-3.08-1.98
Cal PolyBW0.494.2623.5327.72-0.26-1.90
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.424.2370.5969.780.171.67
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.784.2018.7519.45-1.74-2.57
UC RiversideBW2.794.2018.7524.75-1.74-2.12
UC DavisBW2.854.2056.2561.300.360.95
UC IrvineBW2.734.1826.3237.51-1.29-1.04
HawaiiBW2.654.1773.3366.361.241.36
Cal St. FullertonBW2.714.1660.0058.860.540.74
Oregon St.P125.143.4458.8250.900.910.06
PepperdineWCC2.781.9311.1118.99-2.16-1.20
San FranciscoWCC2.771.8752.6350.420.150.02
StanfordP122.631.8657.8952.050.410.08
Fresno St.MWC2.641.8464.7162.070.780.44
ArizonaP122.691.8378.9578.241.561.03
Southern UtahBSky2.761.7833.3331.23-0.92-0.67
Colorado St.MWC2.571.7342.1139.30-0.41-0.37
Michigan St.B102.641.7284.2182.641.801.13
West VirginiaB122.571.6983.3377.441.710.93
MissouriSEC2.571.6964.7161.930.750.40
NebraskaB102.561.6965.0058.480.770.29
Eastern MichiganMAC2.501.6742.8644.93-0.36-0.17
CaliforniaP120.350.4136.8431.12-0.09-0.15
Loyola MarymountWCC0.420.3527.7829.10-0.19-0.15
Sacramento St.BSky0.350.3316.6724.45-0.23-0.17
MontanaBSky0.350.3270.5973.150.140.15
NevadaMWC0.350.3285.7182.090.250.21
PacificWCC0.350.3245.0044.47-0.03-0.04
USCP120.270.3271.4368.280.120.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.380.3166.6766.020.130.10
Arizona St.P120.380.3078.9576.130.220.16
WashingtonP120.140.2570.0061.440.050.06
Washington St.P120.140.2547.3741.44-0.01-0.04
OregonP120.330.2565.0063.850.100.07
UCLAP120.260.2565.0062.050.080.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.210.2390.4888.960.170.18
UtahP120.340.2363.1659.710.090.04
Texas A&MSEC0.260.2068.4263.960.100.06
Idaho St.BSky0.230.1843.7540.93-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.210.1858.8257.140.040.03
PortlandWCC0.140.1827.7827.28-0.06-0.08
IdahoBSky0.140.1864.7166.850.040.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.280.1838.8946.05-0.06-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.130.1763.1657.540.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1733.3332.94-0.04-0.06
WyomingMWC0.190.1761.1156.830.040.02
ColoradoP120.260.1660.0053.720.050.01
Central MichiganMAC0.160.1562.5058.690.040.03
Montana St.BSky0.150.1550.0047.660.00-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.280.1530.0036.50-0.11-0.04
UNLVMWC0.200.1573.6865.260.100.04
Air ForceMWC0.210.1437.5031.76-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.200.1411.1115.29-0.16-0.10
Utah St.MWC0.190.1445.0045.49-0.02-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.130.1445.0048.56-0.01-0.00
IllinoisB100.130.1447.3744.27-0.01-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.1221.0539.48-0.05-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.080.1252.9460.220.000.02
Weber St.BSky0.210.1256.2557.400.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.140.1229.4134.76-0.06-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.140.1258.8263.210.020.03
Boise St.MWC0.210.1278.9576.990.120.06
San Jose St.MWC0.140.1211.7612.81-0.11-0.09
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1258.8262.820.020.03
MichiganB100.200.1176.1970.740.100.05
ArkansasSEC0.200.1168.4264.200.070.03
BYUWCC0.130.1180.9576.240.080.06
GonzagaWCC0.130.1180.9583.260.080.08
IndianaB100.150.1157.8950.710.020.00
St. John'sBE0.260.1147.3742.16-0.01-0.02
Kansas St.B120.130.1173.6862.720.060.03
MaristMAAC0.260.1121.0522.02-0.15-0.06
KansasB120.190.1184.2179.750.130.06
RutgersB100.130.1155.0046.690.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.060.1150.0046.300.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.160.0910.5327.29-0.13-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.150.0966.6755.940.050.01
Miami OHMAC0.070.0947.0641.41-0.00-0.02
George MasonA100.140.0945.0041.30-0.01-0.02
OaklandHorz0.230.0961.9065.160.050.03
RadfordBSth0.140.0957.8958.850.020.02
Kent St.MAC0.130.0944.4444.92-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.140.0929.4139.63-0.06-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0944.4450.31-0.010.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0940.0030.87-0.01-0.03
SMUAmer0.060.0970.0070.570.030.04
North FloridaASun0.220.0931.5835.15-0.08-0.03
IowaB100.080.0847.6244.02-0.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.130.0883.3384.240.080.06
Oklahoma St.B120.130.0868.4254.090.050.01
DenverSum0.130.0833.3336.48-0.04-0.02
KentuckySEC0.000.0873.6867.970.000.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0861.1147.220.02-0.00
UCFAmer0.190.0868.4260.860.070.02
MarylandB100.060.0870.0065.250.030.02
MinnesotaB100.060.0863.6457.630.020.01
Ohio St.B100.130.0880.9576.520.080.04
Penn St.B100.060.0861.9055.760.010.01
PurdueB100.120.0890.4888.370.100.06
HarvardIvy0.080.0637.5046.69-0.02-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0661.1158.700.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0658.8249.760.01-0.00
DavidsonA100.080.0658.8261.450.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0677.7870.480.040.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0641.1839.16-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0666.6767.700.000.02
TroySB0.080.0635.2942.76-0.02-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0652.9452.230.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0650.0052.460.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.070.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6765.640.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0670.0071.230.030.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0650.0054.890.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0625.0028.010.00-0.03
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.070.0642.1143.51-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0660.0062.030.000.01
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0647.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.0629.4133.20-0.05-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.130.0631.5832.72-0.05-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.0670.0068.220.050.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0652.6345.860.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.060.0665.0065.320.020.02
Saint LouisA100.130.0647.3746.92-0.01-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0672.2272.980.030.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0645.0045.03-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0672.2258.920.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0568.4258.980.020.01
FloridaSEC0.130.0573.6871.560.060.02
BaylorB120.070.0561.1156.090.010.01
ConnecticutAmer0.130.0552.6347.390.01-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.130.0580.0075.060.080.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0555.0050.330.010.00
TCUB120.000.0573.6865.600.000.02
TexasB120.070.0563.1657.630.020.01
Texas TechB120.070.0578.9571.810.040.02
OklahomaB120.070.0577.7867.910.040.02
AkronMAC0.080.0347.0644.91-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0327.7831.11-0.04-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.02
OhioMAC0.080.0347.0648.41-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.080.0335.0026.12-0.02-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0368.4261.230.030.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.070.0371.4374.660.030.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0389.4777.000.000.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.060.0370.0058.090.030.00
Florida St.ACC0.060.0373.6869.640.030.01
Green BayHorz0.070.0325.0027.94-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0361.1153.170.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0370.0068.300.030.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.037.1414.82-0.05-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0361.1151.910.020.00
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0352.9459.250.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0380.0078.850.040.02
TennesseeSEC0.070.0372.2268.930.030.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0357.8950.210.010.00
TulaneAmer0.060.0363.1657.890.020.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0336.8435.570.00-0.01
WagnerNEC0.070.0364.7164.570.020.01
WinthropBSth0.060.0350.0059.450.000.01
AmericanPat0.070.0326.3228.11-0.03-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.060.0365.0054.670.020.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0320.0023.34-0.04-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.039.5217.90-0.05-0.02
CreightonBE0.060.0375.0070.700.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.030.009.09-0.06-0.02
DePaulBE0.060.0342.1134.31-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.060.0389.4785.210.050.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.060.0329.4133.93-0.02-0.01
FordhamA100.070.0331.5829.06-0.02-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.035.8819.35-0.06-0.02
NJITASun0.070.0338.8942.61-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0365.0056.340.020.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0344.4446.65-0.01-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.060.0363.1663.220.020.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0363.1661.020.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0327.7834.50-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.060.0333.3336.93-0.02-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0336.8445.21-0.02-0.00
UMBCAE0.060.0355.5655.540.010.00
UTSACUSA0.060.0341.1839.65-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0394.7486.140.060.02