live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 10, 2016.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:101.6
Current RPI:87
Expected SOS:86
Current SOS:50
Current Record:10-12
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:6-3
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-3
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:103
Expected OOC SOS:1



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1271.85.97%
16-1384.424.73%
15-1499.135.46%
14-15116.023.87%
13-16133.18.18%
12-17149.81.58%
11-18163.30.20%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16BYU (72.5)WCCH66-65W100%0.0
11-19Seton Hall (54.5)BEN77-80W100%0.0
11-20Virginia (5.8)ACCN87-52L0%0.0
11-22Oklahoma St. (148.4)B12N77-82L0%0.0
11-27Oklahoma St. (148.4)B12A79-73L0%0.0
12-1San Diego St. (54.0)MWCH72-76L0%0.0
12-3Colorado St. (170.2)MWCA77-83W100%0.0
12-5New Mexico St. (121.0)WACH67-53W100%0.0
12-6UCLA (70.2)P12A83-76L0%0.0
12-9Pepperdine (126.7)WCCA77-75L0%0.0
12-18Oregon (4.9)P12A94-73L0%0.0
12-22Arizona (26.8)P12A85-70L0%0.0
12-30Duke (17.5)ACCA103-81L0%0.0
1-6Cal St. Northridge (270.9)BWA79-94W100%0.0
1-9UC Davis (255.2)BWH59-47W100%0.0
1-14UC Irvine (69.0)BWH54-58L0%0.0
1-16Cal Poly (215.2)BWA96-92L0%0.0
1-20UC Santa Barbara (122.3)BWA67-77W100%0.0
1-23UC Riverside (264.0)BWA74-72L0%0.0
1-28UC Santa Barbara (122.3)BWH80-70W100%0.0
1-30Hawaii (89.4)BWA64-78W100%0.0
2-6Cal St. Northridge (270.9)BWH81-76W100%0.0
2-11Cal Poly (215.2)BWH0-081%9.6
2-13UC Davis (255.2)BWA0-072%6.4
2-20Cal St. Fullerton (291.4)BWH0-089%13.5
2-24UC Irvine (69.0)BWA0-035%-4.2
2-27UC Riverside (264.0)BWH0-088%12.6
3-2Cal St. Fullerton (291.4)BWA0-073%6.8
3-5Hawaii (89.4)BWH0-052%0.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW26.4226.4250.0054.710.002.49
UC IrvineBW2.854.3871.4370.881.221.83
Cal St. NorthridgeBW5.014.3735.0032.47-1.50-1.53
Cal PolyBW2.814.3426.3232.56-1.33-1.51
UC RiversideBW2.764.3243.4840.61-0.36-0.81
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.934.3147.3754.29-0.260.37
Cal St. FullertonBW0.694.3133.3331.55-0.23-1.59
HawaiiBW2.714.3188.8986.262.113.12
UC DavisBW2.644.3142.1138.52-0.42-0.99
Oklahoma St.B124.553.4540.9138.34-0.83-0.80
UCLAP122.581.9954.5551.710.230.07
PepperdineWCC2.521.8754.5555.690.230.21
OregonP122.421.8781.8278.541.541.06
ArizonaP122.371.8178.2677.611.341.00
BYUWCC2.371.7969.5771.880.930.78
Colorado St.MWC2.371.7857.1454.420.340.16
San Diego St.MWC2.381.7868.1869.000.860.68
New Mexico St.WAC2.321.7868.1871.130.850.75
DukeACC2.271.7573.9170.861.090.73
VirginiaACC2.271.7582.6177.721.480.97
Seton HallBE2.271.7273.9170.451.090.71
Loyola MarymountWCC0.400.4539.1338.56-0.09-0.10
USCP120.460.3678.2673.050.260.16
San DiegoWCC0.310.3431.8229.13-0.11-0.14
Boise St.MWC0.410.3260.8760.530.090.07
UNLVMWC0.350.3252.1755.090.020.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.310.3085.7185.380.220.22
San FranciscoWCC0.360.3054.5550.110.030.00
PortlandWCC0.250.2840.0038.51-0.05-0.06
PacificWCC0.240.2725.0028.89-0.12-0.11
Oregon St.P120.250.2761.9056.450.060.03
WashingtonP120.300.2762.5060.110.080.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.240.2630.4331.21-0.10-0.10
CaliforniaP120.300.2665.2262.830.090.07
SeattleWAC0.210.2547.6245.00-0.01-0.03
Fresno St.MWC0.300.2463.6461.640.080.06
Utah St.MWC0.300.2347.6249.26-0.01-0.00
KansasB120.250.2382.6179.190.160.13
NevadaMWC0.160.2257.1455.290.020.02
Arizona St.P120.250.2054.1751.670.020.01
UtahP120.240.2070.8368.500.100.07
Air ForceMWC0.160.1843.4837.81-0.02-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.200.1858.3360.690.030.04
OklahomaB120.150.1886.9682.580.110.11
Texas TechB120.150.1860.8755.300.030.02
GonzagaWCC0.240.1778.2676.880.140.09
ColoradoP120.200.1769.5765.310.080.05
BaylorB120.290.1773.9168.480.140.06
West VirginiaB120.190.1779.1778.060.110.10
Utah ValleyWAC0.200.1533.3334.95-0.07-0.05
WyomingMWC0.150.1543.4842.47-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.200.1519.0525.90-0.12-0.07
Kansas St.B120.150.1458.3356.290.020.02
StanfordP120.100.1450.0046.530.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.190.1436.3631.98-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1342.1145.67-0.02-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.1331.5837.72-0.04-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1220.0022.26-0.09-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.160.1256.0055.420.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.150.1224.0025.67-0.08-0.06
AuburnSEC0.150.1239.1335.44-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1266.6767.710.030.04
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1223.8122.82-0.08-0.06
UMKCWAC0.140.1228.5732.73-0.06-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1129.1726.73-0.06-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.090.1179.1776.070.060.06
North CarolinaACC0.050.1183.3378.400.030.06
Wake ForestACC0.140.1141.6739.91-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.1170.8368.000.040.04
TCUB120.190.1145.8339.35-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.090.1166.6762.210.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.0918.1821.12-0.07-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.0982.6181.130.100.06
UTEPCUSA0.150.0952.1751.940.010.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.0950.0049.770.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.0935.0034.80-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0928.5727.00-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.140.0987.5086.870.110.06
BradleyMVC0.140.0912.0011.96-0.11-0.06
ClemsonACC0.090.0958.3358.370.020.01
GeorgetownBE0.090.0956.0052.840.010.00
Miami FLACC0.090.0982.6177.520.060.05
ProvidenceBE0.090.0972.0069.150.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.140.0952.0048.860.01-0.00
George MasonA100.140.0833.3333.70-0.05-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0850.0049.050.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0640.0042.85-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.100.010.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0636.3638.93-0.02-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0654.5554.970.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0670.8368.590.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.060.0640.9143.75-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0663.6462.150.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0615.0015.32-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0675.0075.330.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.1972.310.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0624.0026.33-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.6413.63-0.04-0.05
AkronMAC0.110.0682.6181.130.070.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.064.357.72-0.05-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0645.0046.11-0.01-0.00
IonaMAAC0.110.0660.8760.750.020.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.0658.3358.480.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.100.0660.0057.640.020.01
South DakotaSum0.100.0641.6741.24-0.02-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0673.9174.700.050.03
VermontAE0.110.0652.0054.870.000.01
Wright St.Horz0.100.0656.5257.020.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0614.2915.45-0.04-0.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.0657.8961.760.020.01
OaklandHorz0.100.0668.0067.990.040.02
ButlerBE0.050.0670.8368.990.020.02
CreightonBE0.090.0664.0062.040.030.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.25-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.050.0654.1751.780.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0633.3334.01-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0675.0076.190.030.03
George WashingtonA100.090.0675.0071.920.050.03
LamarSlnd0.050.0630.0029.28-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.090.0664.0057.920.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.66-0.010.00
OhioMAC0.050.0663.6461.480.010.01
RiceCUSA0.050.0628.5729.66-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0645.0049.23-0.01-0.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0625.0023.45-0.02-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.680.00-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0687.5081.860.040.04
Florida St.ACC0.050.0669.5764.900.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0654.1751.980.010.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0670.8367.820.040.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0672.7367.630.020.02
SyracuseACC0.090.0666.6762.560.030.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0666.6766.330.030.02
KentuckySEC0.100.0675.0072.630.050.03
LongwoodBSth0.090.0622.7324.97-0.05-0.03
MinnesotaB100.090.0625.0027.23-0.05-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0637.5037.41-0.02-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0647.8350.01-0.000.00
TowsonCAA0.090.0665.2259.750.030.01
TulsaAmer0.090.0666.6764.730.030.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0360.8757.160.010.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0320.8323.19-0.03-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.360.010.00
MontanaBSky0.050.0357.8962.320.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0345.4549.69-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0339.1341.11-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0328.0030.70-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.370.020.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0390.4886.910.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0341.6739.46-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0354.1750.990.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0322.7323.25-0.03-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.970.010.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0342.8639.23-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.660.020.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0347.6249.35-0.00-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.74-0.02-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.220.010.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0335.0038.52-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0350.0054.190.000.00
LehighPat0.050.0339.1342.82-0.01-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0362.5058.920.010.01
NavyPat0.050.0364.0064.480.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0360.0055.540.010.00
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.34-0.03-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0340.9143.25-0.01-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0338.1037.70-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0320.0019.76-0.03-0.02
TroySB0.050.0323.8126.72-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0381.8283.030.030.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0363.6465.020.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.050.0365.0069.230.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0373.9176.740.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.050.0371.4369.840.020.01
BryantNEC0.050.0325.0026.40-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0356.5257.000.010.00
ElonCAA0.050.0352.1750.420.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0038.97-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.050.0379.1774.060.030.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0317.6529.03-0.03-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0333.3330.27-0.02-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0380.0081.160.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0310.0013.14-0.04-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0317.6526.58-0.03-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0364.0064.110.010.01
VCUA100.050.0373.9174.060.020.01
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01