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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:79.0
Current RPI:79
Expected SOS:82
Current SOS:82
Current Record:18-14
Expected Record:18-14
Current Conf Record:14-5
Expected Conf Record:14-5
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:107
Expected OOC SOS:1



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1479.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-16BYU (76.0)WCCH66-65W100%0.0
11-19Seton Hall (19.0)BEN77-80W100%0.0
11-20Virginia (3.0)ACCN87-52L0%0.0
11-22Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12N77-82L0%0.0
11-27Oklahoma St. (170.0)B12A79-73L0%0.0
12-1San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH72-76L0%0.0
12-3Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA77-83W100%0.0
12-5New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH67-53W100%0.0
12-6UCLA (102.0)P12A83-76L0%0.0
12-9Pepperdine (129.0)WCCA77-75L0%0.0
12-18Oregon (2.0)P12A94-73L0%0.0
12-22Arizona (26.0)P12A85-70L0%0.0
12-30Duke (20.0)ACCA103-81L0%0.0
1-6Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA79-94W100%0.0
1-9UC Davis (281.0)BWH59-47W100%0.0
1-14UC Irvine (75.0)BWH54-58L0%0.0
1-16Cal Poly (236.0)BWA96-92L0%0.0
1-20UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA67-77W100%0.0
1-23UC Riverside (267.0)BWA74-72L0%0.0
1-28UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH80-70W100%0.0
1-30Hawaii (80.0)BWA64-78W100%0.0
2-6Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH81-76W100%0.0
2-11Cal Poly (236.0)BWH73-70W100%0.0
2-13UC Davis (281.0)BWA48-57W100%0.0
2-20Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH70-57W100%0.0
2-24UC Irvine (75.0)BWA90-67L0%0.0
2-27UC Riverside (267.0)BWH66-55W100%0.0
3-2Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA73-75W100%0.0
3-5Hawaii (80.0)BWH74-72W100%0.0
3-10UC Riverside (267.0)BWN82-74W100%0.0
3-11UC Irvine (75.0)BWN72-77W100%0.0
3-12Hawaii (80.0)BWN64-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW26.6026.6060.0060.005.325.32
UC IrvineBW5.655.6572.4172.412.532.53
HawaiiBW5.645.6488.8988.894.394.39
UC RiversideBW5.545.5439.2939.29-1.19-1.19
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.164.1660.7160.710.890.89
Cal PolyBW4.124.1226.9226.92-1.90-1.90
Cal St. FullertonBW4.104.1030.7730.77-1.58-1.58
UC DavisBW4.074.0734.6234.62-1.25-1.25
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.074.0730.7730.77-1.56-1.56
Oklahoma St.B123.123.1233.3333.33-1.04-1.04
UCLAP121.791.7945.1645.16-0.17-0.17
OregonP121.731.7381.2581.251.081.08
PepperdineWCC1.691.6955.1755.170.170.17
ArizonaP121.661.6675.0075.000.830.83
New Mexico St.WAC1.641.6470.0070.000.650.65
BYUWCC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
Colorado St.MWC1.611.6151.6151.610.050.05
San Diego St.MWC1.611.6170.9770.970.680.68
DukeACC1.591.5968.7568.750.590.59
VirginiaACC1.591.5978.1278.120.890.89
Seton HallBE1.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
Loyola MarymountWCC0.440.4443.3343.33-0.06-0.06
USCP120.330.3363.6463.640.090.09
Boise St.MWC0.320.3260.0060.000.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.310.3183.8783.870.210.21
San FranciscoWCC0.310.3148.2848.28-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.300.3051.6151.610.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.300.3033.3333.33-0.10-0.10
San DiegoWCC0.290.2927.5927.59-0.13-0.13
PacificWCC0.250.2523.0823.08-0.14-0.14
WashingtonP120.250.2556.2556.250.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.250.2571.8871.880.110.11
Utah St.MWC0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.240.2435.4835.48-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
Oregon St.P120.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
KansasB120.220.2287.8887.880.170.17
CaliforniaP120.220.2269.7069.700.090.09
SeattleWAC0.210.2142.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
OklahomaB120.180.1878.1278.120.100.10
Texas TechB120.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.170.1778.1278.120.100.10
Arizona St.P120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.170.1751.5251.520.010.01
ColoradoP120.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Morgan St.MEAC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
Air ForceMWC0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.150.1572.4172.410.070.07
New MexicoMWC0.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
BaylorB120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
West VirginiaB120.150.1576.4776.470.080.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1322.8622.86-0.07-0.07
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.130.1324.2424.24-0.07-0.07
AuburnSEC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1363.6463.640.030.03
UMKCWAC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
WyomingMWC0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.120.1221.4321.43-0.07-0.07
Boston CollegeACC0.120.1221.8821.88-0.07-0.07
Washington St.P120.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
StanfordP120.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Iowa St.B120.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.0974.1974.190.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.090.0985.2985.290.070.07
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
DenverSum0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
LamarSlnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0779.3179.310.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.070.0712.9012.90-0.05-0.05
ClemsonACC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
CreightonBE0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
XavierBE0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
UMBCAE0.060.0621.8821.88-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
IonaMAAC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
VermontAE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.453.45-0.05-0.05
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
OaklandHorz0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
DePaulBE0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.020.0287.1087.100.020.02
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Arkansas St.SB0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.020.0220.8320.83-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.020.0224.2424.24-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0262.0762.070.010.01
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01