Long Beach St.

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	115.0
Current RPI:	115
Expected SOS:	139
Current SOS:	139
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	15-5
Expected Conf Record:	15-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-1
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	153
Expected OOC SOS:	8

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	115.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Southern California (118.0)	P12	A	62-44	L	0%
11-16	North Carolina (17.0)	ACC	H	63-78	L	0%
11-19	Arizona (16.0)	P12	A	94-72	L	0%
11-25	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	61-69	W	100%
11-29	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	70-73	W	100%
12-3	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	59-64	L	0%
12-6	Syracuse (14.0)	BE	A	84-53	L	0%
12-8	Ohio St. (10.0)	B10	A	89-55	L	0%
12-18	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	89-70	L	0%
12-29	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	67-63	W	100%
1-3	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	A	79-73	L	0%
1-5	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	70-77	W	100%
1-9	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	78-69	W	100%
1-12	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	76-72	W	100%
1-17	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	82-91	W	100%
1-19	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	71-81	W	100%
1-26	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	81-59	W	100%
1-30	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	57-55	W	100%
2-2	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	50-48	W	100%
2-7	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	94-73	L	0%
2-9	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	80-83	W	100%
2-13	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	85-65	W	100%
2-16	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	75-35	W	100%
2-20	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	71-65	W	100%
2-22	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	60-68	L	0%
3-2	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	72-69	L	0%
3-7	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	76-77	W	100%
3-9	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	71-51	L	0%
3-14	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	N	75-66	W	100%
3-15	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	N	60-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Long Beach St.	BW	26.59	26.59	60.45	60.45	5.56	5.56
UC Irvine	BW	6.17	6.17	53.33	53.33	0.41	0.41
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	5.94	5.94	44.44	44.44	-0.66	-0.66
Pacific	BW	4.58	4.58	63.33	63.33	1.22	1.22
Cal Poly	BW	4.54	4.54	55.56	55.56	0.50	0.50
UC Riverside	BW	4.40	4.40	15.38	15.38	-3.05	-3.05
Hawaii	BW	4.40	4.40	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
UC Davis	BW	4.39	4.39	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.38	4.38	33.33	33.33	-1.46	-1.46
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.35	4.35	44.44	44.44	-0.48	-0.48
Fresno St.	MWC	3.60	3.60	30.77	30.77	-1.39	-1.39
UCLA	P12	2.05	2.05	72.73	72.73	0.93	0.93
Southern California	P12	1.90	1.90	41.94	41.94	-0.31	-0.31
Arizona	P12	1.79	1.79	77.42	77.42	0.98	0.98
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.72	1.72	32.26	32.26	-0.61	-0.61
North Carolina	ACC	1.67	1.67	68.75	68.75	0.62	0.62
Ohio St.	B10	1.67	1.67	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.67	1.67	84.62	84.62	1.15	1.15
Syracuse	BE	1.67	1.67	73.53	73.53	0.78	0.78
Nevada	MWC	0.44	0.44	36.67	36.67	-0.12	-0.12
Washington	P12	0.32	0.32	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.30	0.30	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.28	0.28	66.67	66.67	0.09	0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.28	0.28	72.73	72.73	0.13	0.13
Stanford	P12	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.25	0.25	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
California	P12	0.24	0.24	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.24	0.24	63.64	63.64	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.22	0.22	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
St. Mary's	WCC	0.21	0.21	81.25	81.25	0.13	0.13
Washington St.	P12	0.21	0.21	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Colorado	P12	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Utah	P12	0.19	0.19	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.16	0.16	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	81.82	81.82	0.10	0.10
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.15	17.86	17.86	-0.09	-0.09
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.13	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.13	0.13	93.75	93.75	0.11	0.11
San Francisco	WCC	0.13	0.13	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	70.37	70.37	0.04	0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Texas St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.07	0.07	85.29	85.29	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Grambling	SWAC	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01