Long Beach St.

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	34.0
Current RPI:	34
Expected SOS:	123
Current SOS:	123
Current Record:	23-8
Expected Record:	23-8
Current Conf Record:	18-1
Expected Conf Record:	18-1
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-0
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	27
Expected OOC SOS:	1

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-8	34.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	H	69-61	W	100%
11-16	Pittsburgh (96.0)	BE	A	76-86	W	100%
11-19	San Diego St. (26.0)	MWC	A	77-73	L	0%
11-22	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	H	72-62	W	100%
11-26	Montana (74.0)	BSky	A	73-71	L	0%
11-28	Louisville (13.0)	BE	A	79-66	L	0%
12-6	Kansas (6.0)	B12	A	88-80	L	0%
12-10	North Carolina (3.0)	ACC	A	84-78	L	0%
12-22	Xavier (41.0)	A10	N	58-68	W	100%
12-23	Auburn (145.0)	SEC	N	43-64	W	100%
12-25	Kansas St. (45.0)	B12	N	77-60	L	0%
1-2	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	A	60-74	W	100%
1-5	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	H	55-50	W	100%
1-7	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	A	68-81	W	100%
1-12	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	H	86-58	W	100%
1-14	Pacific (288.0)	BW	H	76-66	W	100%
1-19	Cal Poly (219.0)	BW	A	69-78	W	100%
1-21	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	48-71	W	100%
1-26	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	A	70-77	W	100%
1-28	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	H	75-61	W	100%
2-4	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	75-67	W	100%
2-9	Pacific (288.0)	BW	A	66-74	W	100%
2-11	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	A	69-89	W	100%
2-18	Creighton (24.0)	MVC	A	81-79	L	0%
2-22	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	H	70-58	W	100%
2-25	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	64-40	W	100%
2-29	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	H	77-50	W	100%
3-3	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	A	77-74	L	0%
3-8	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	N	80-46	W	100%
3-9	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	N	68-57	W	100%
3-10	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	N	77-64	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Long Beach St.	BW	26.63	26.63	81.02	81.02	16.52	16.52
UC Santa Barbara	BW	5.87	5.87	72.00	72.00	2.58	2.58
UC Davis	BW	5.80	5.80	14.81	14.81	-4.08	-4.08
UC Irvine	BW	5.80	5.80	38.46	38.46	-1.34	-1.34
Cal Poly	BW	4.33	4.33	55.17	55.17	0.45	0.45
Pacific	BW	4.27	4.27	34.62	34.62	-1.31	-1.31
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.26	4.26	69.23	69.23	1.64	1.64
UC Riverside	BW	4.26	4.26	44.44	44.44	-0.47	-0.47
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.20	4.20	20.83	20.83	-2.45	-2.45
San Diego St.	MWC	1.94	1.94	76.67	76.67	1.04	1.04
Boise St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	42.86	42.86	-0.25	-0.25
Idaho	WAC	1.75	1.75	57.14	57.14	0.25	0.25
Kansas	B12	1.66	1.66	81.25	81.25	1.04	1.04
Kansas St.	B12	1.66	1.66	66.67	66.67	0.55	0.55
Louisville	BE	1.66	1.66	73.53	73.53	0.78	0.78
Pittsburgh	BE	1.66	1.66	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Montana	BSky	1.64	1.64	78.57	78.57	0.94	0.94
Creighton	MVC	1.64	1.64	84.38	84.38	1.13	1.13
Auburn	SEC	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	1.61	1.61	84.85	84.85	1.12	1.12
Xavier	A10	1.61	1.61	65.62	65.62	0.50	0.50
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.49	0.49	48.15	48.15	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.42	0.42	46.67	46.67	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.38	0.38	26.67	26.67	-0.18	-0.18
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.33	0.33	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.28	0.28	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.27	0.27	75.00	75.00	0.13	0.13
Southern Utah	Sum	0.24	0.24	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Southern California	P12	0.22	0.22	18.75	18.75	-0.14	-0.14
Seattle	ind	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.21	0.21	21.43	21.43	-0.12	-0.12
Utah St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	37.04	37.04	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada	WAC	0.20	0.20	80.00	80.00	0.12	0.12
California	P12	0.20	0.20	72.73	72.73	0.09	0.09
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	30.77	30.77	-0.07	-0.07
Baylor	B12	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Weber St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	78.57	78.57	0.10	0.10
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.16	0.16	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Washington	P12	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	11.11	11.11	-0.11	-0.11
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	81.25	81.25	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Wichita St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	83.87	83.87	0.07	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Missouri	B12	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
West Virginia	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.10	0.10	94.12	94.12	0.09	0.09
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Cincinnati	BE	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Brigham Young	WCC	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.93	25.93	-0.04	-0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Maryland	ACC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Elon	SC	0.05	0.05	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	21.88	21.88	-0.03	-0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.02	0.02	29.63	29.63	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Towson	CAA	0.02	0.02	3.12	3.12	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	6.90	6.90	-0.02	-0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00