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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:86.1
Current RPI:67
Expected SOS:74
Current SOS:5
Current Record:4-7
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-10
Expected OOC RPI:70
Expected OOC SOS:3



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-816.50.02%
21-923.80.05%
20-1029.70.67%
19-1136.72.61%
18-1246.27.07%
17-1358.014.19%
16-1471.819.69%
15-1587.422.03%
14-16104.916.43%
13-17122.610.38%
12-18140.94.98%
11-19160.81.47%
10-20177.30.35%
9-21195.80.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14BYU (51.6)WCCA95-90L0%0.0
11-18Xavier (27.1)BEA97-74L0%0.0
11-21Kansas St. (117.4)B12H69-60W100%0.0
11-23UCLA (80.6)P12A77-63L0%0.0
11-27Western Michigan (134.6)MACN55-73W100%0.0
11-28Washington (30.0)P12N80-70L0%0.0
11-30Xavier (27.1)BEN73-70W100%0.0
12-3Nevada (283.3)MWCH68-57W100%0.0
12-5Stephen F. Austin (69.4)SlndA74-45L0%0.0
12-10San Diego St. (35.4)MWCA60-59L0%0.0
12-20Texas (6.2)B12A78-68L0%0.0
12-22St. John's (41.5)BEA0-020%-10.0
12-28Syracuse (70.4)ACCA0-021%-9.3
12-30Louisville (7.9)ACCA0-04%-20.4
1-8UC Irvine (201.6)BWA0-051%0.2
1-10UC Davis (129.4)BWA0-043%-2.1
1-15Cal Poly (210.5)BWH0-082%10.9
1-17UC Santa Barbara (78.5)BWH0-052%0.6
1-24Cal St. Northridge (309.2)BWA0-078%9.0
1-29Cal St. Fullerton (267.3)BWA0-069%5.8
1-31Hawaii (216.7)BWH0-082%10.6
2-5UC Riverside (248.9)BWH0-086%12.4
2-7UC Irvine (201.6)BWH0-077%8.6
2-12UC Santa Barbara (78.5)BWA0-025%-7.8
2-14Cal Poly (210.5)BWA0-059%2.6
2-19UC Davis (129.4)BWH0-070%6.3
2-26Hawaii (216.7)BWA0-057%2.2
2-28Cal St. Fullerton (267.3)BWH0-089%14.1
3-5Cal St. Northridge (309.2)BWH0-093%17.4
3-7UC Riverside (248.9)BWA0-063%4.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW27.8526.4141.0356.59-5.003.48
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.214.2718.1823.07-0.13-2.30
Cal St. FullertonBW0.444.2436.3639.08-0.12-0.93
UC RiversideBW0.194.2350.0044.680.00-0.45
HawaiiBW0.234.2066.6756.390.080.54
Cal PolyBW0.254.2037.5042.98-0.06-0.59
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.1837.5064.14-0.001.18
UC DavisBW0.004.1787.5069.970.001.67
UC IrvineBW0.004.1737.5047.21-0.00-0.23
XavierBE9.343.4277.7868.805.191.29
San Diego St.MWC5.001.9070.0071.632.000.82
NevadaMWC4.551.8412.5026.43-3.41-0.87
UCLAP124.551.8163.6452.971.240.11
St. John'sBE0.001.8088.8964.650.000.53
Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.961.7862.5077.211.240.97
BYUWCC4.751.7666.6767.211.580.60
LouisvilleACC0.001.75100.0084.570.001.21
SyracuseACC0.001.7260.0057.430.000.26
WashingtonP124.751.72100.0074.604.750.85
Kansas St.B124.551.7270.0041.531.82-0.29
TexasB124.551.7290.0079.313.641.01
Western MichiganMAC4.551.6762.5054.561.140.15
OregonP120.000.2970.0057.440.000.04
San DiegoWCC1.310.2854.5557.570.120.04
San Jose St.MWC0.480.260.008.00-0.48-0.22
SeattleWAC0.230.2633.3343.83-0.08-0.03
CaliforniaP120.460.2690.9169.030.380.10
Fresno St.MWC0.000.2427.2729.17-0.00-0.10
ArizonaP120.410.23100.0082.630.410.15
UtahP120.430.2380.0080.520.260.14
PittsburghACC0.410.2270.0051.780.170.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.2162.5058.080.000.03
PacificWCC0.730.2155.5638.270.08-0.05
Washington St.P120.000.2040.0028.13-0.00-0.09
Seton HallBE0.250.1990.0067.380.200.07
VillanovaBE0.000.19100.0082.970.000.13
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1850.0054.170.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1844.4436.80-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1825.0023.40-0.00-0.10
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1842.8641.81-0.00-0.03
Utah St.MWC0.230.1854.5548.260.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.1850.0055.890.000.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1816.6735.27-0.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.190.1890.9190.540.150.14
Colorado St.MWC0.000.17100.0078.210.000.10
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1777.7870.160.000.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1733.3334.30-0.00-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.1766.6755.670.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.1777.7856.220.000.02
KansasB120.000.1790.0070.680.000.07
StanfordP120.230.1666.6758.320.080.03
ButlerBE0.000.1672.7367.960.000.06
CreightonBE0.000.1675.0052.140.000.01
DePaulBE0.000.1660.0034.160.00-0.05
GeorgetownBE0.000.1670.0059.220.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.1660.0048.980.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.1675.0057.390.000.02
OklahomaB120.420.1670.0062.710.170.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.210.1516.6733.39-0.14-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1472.7362.220.000.03
USCP120.000.1460.0036.410.00-0.04
BaylorB120.250.1490.0073.240.200.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1240.0043.04-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.1216.6736.63-0.00-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1242.8633.27-0.00-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.000.1250.0042.090.00-0.02
UNLVMWC0.000.1266.6749.560.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.000.1280.0073.540.000.05
ColoradoP120.000.1166.6758.000.000.02
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.090.000.08
Iowa St.B120.000.1190.0065.480.000.03
North CarolinaACC0.190.1172.7374.850.090.05
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1188.8963.020.000.03
TCUB120.000.11100.0067.700.000.04
Texas TechB120.000.1190.0055.360.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.1190.9170.080.000.04
NortheasternCAA0.250.0970.0060.920.100.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0914.2915.15-0.00-0.06
BradleyMVC0.210.0933.3334.04-0.07-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.210.0955.5655.710.020.01
Ball St.MAC0.210.0925.0037.03-0.10-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0977.7872.890.000.04
FIUCUSA0.000.0844.4450.41-0.000.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.230.0842.8637.83-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.250.0860.0043.890.05-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.190.0820.0026.07-0.11-0.04
CincinnatiAmer0.210.0870.0064.680.080.02
UTEPCUSA0.640.0860.0071.280.130.03
AlabamaSEC0.410.0866.6754.130.140.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0866.6742.600.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.400.08100.0096.290.400.07
Miami FLACC0.000.0881.8266.010.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.08100.0086.080.000.06
Virginia TechACC0.000.0860.0038.030.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.008.56-0.00-0.05
IPFWSum0.000.0650.0054.190.000.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0618.1837.71-0.00-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0636.3646.72-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.000.0622.2231.81-0.00-0.02
High PointBSth0.000.0666.6761.790.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0637.5052.01-0.000.00
MaristMAAC0.000.069.0916.15-0.00-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6744.720.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0633.3361.74-0.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0637.5056.46-0.000.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0034.33-0.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0630.0038.57-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0677.7870.890.000.02
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0685.7170.530.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0675.0066.220.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0636.3645.11-0.00-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0680.0076.450.000.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0614.2935.86-0.00-0.02
MercerSC0.000.0644.4444.02-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0616.6740.27-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0655.5673.740.000.03
SMUAmer0.000.0672.7375.710.000.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0663.6461.520.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0644.4457.69-0.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.480.0637.5044.33-0.12-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0670.0051.040.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0663.6467.210.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0660.0057.890.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.460.0644.4455.37-0.050.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.190.060.0017.97-0.19-0.04
Texas St.SB0.460.0650.0050.060.000.00
PurdueB100.430.0666.6759.370.140.01
SamfordSC0.000.0633.3330.28-0.00-0.02
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.30-0.00-0.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0688.8955.860.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0554.5548.490.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0580.0067.830.000.02
AuburnSEC0.410.0550.0039.790.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0554.5541.980.00-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0580.0053.260.000.00
IowaB100.210.0566.6759.420.070.01
IUPUISum0.410.0527.2728.86-0.19-0.02
MissouriSEC0.410.0540.0032.26-0.08-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.410.0560.0065.120.080.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0061.480.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.410.0536.3648.28-0.11-0.00
Notre DameACC0.000.0591.6777.120.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.210.0518.1827.33-0.13-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0545.4537.60-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.250.0322.2229.80-0.14-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0375.0067.140.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.030.0017.69-0.00-0.02
DrakeMVC0.250.0318.1819.46-0.16-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.000.0375.0058.160.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0320.0044.37-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.250.0360.0062.070.050.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0330.0028.65-0.00-0.01
New HampshireAE0.000.0350.0060.410.000.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0320.0046.47-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.250.0342.8636.81-0.04-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.250.0390.9183.090.210.02
NorthwesternB100.250.0363.6442.810.07-0.00
OaklandHorz0.250.0327.2732.45-0.11-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0342.8637.71-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.250.030.0039.10-0.25-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0320.0045.74-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.230.0350.0068.770.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0354.5552.490.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.230.0360.0076.250.050.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.000.0337.5039.65-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0328.5727.11-0.00-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.230.030.009.06-0.23-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0333.3345.04-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0312.5029.51-0.00-0.01
NJITind0.000.0341.6743.68-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.230.0327.2735.36-0.10-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0333.3355.24-0.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.210.030.0027.67-0.21-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3349.35-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.190.0357.1470.520.030.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0042.59-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.210.0350.0058.070.000.00
CornellIvy0.000.0355.5648.710.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.050.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0345.4549.62-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.000.0357.1453.770.000.00
IndianaB100.000.0381.8263.330.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0350.0037.570.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0333.3328.79-0.00-0.01
LipscombASun0.210.0322.2238.44-0.11-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0372.7367.520.000.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3328.13-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0350.0040.450.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.210.0355.5655.280.020.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0381.8282.250.000.02
RiceCUSA0.000.0316.6726.98-0.00-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.210.0314.2929.82-0.15-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.210.0355.5665.210.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.210.0355.5646.290.02-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.210.0370.0061.320.080.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0320.0052.97-0.000.00
UABCUSA0.190.0330.0036.69-0.08-0.01
UMKCWAC0.210.0320.0040.84-0.12-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.330.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0350.0051.710.000.00