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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:199.2
Current RPI:211
Expected SOS:159
Current SOS:25
Current Record:0-8
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-6
Current OOC Record:0-8
Expected OOC Record:2-12
Expected OOC RPI:190
Expected OOC SOS:9



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1071.00.01%
19-1175.40.05%
18-1288.90.28%
17-13103.91.08%
16-14120.02.83%
15-15135.96.38%
14-16154.310.84%
13-17174.116.26%
12-18194.717.53%
11-19216.017.12%
10-20236.012.93%
9-21254.68.07%
8-22272.74.28%
7-23289.31.70%
6-24303.40.48%
5-25312.20.14%
4-26325.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wichita St. (34.2)MVCA92-55L0%0.0
11-15North Carolina (5.9)ACCA93-67L0%0.0
11-17Louisville (6.5)ACCA88-56L0%0.0
11-20UCLA (19.0)P12A114-77L0%0.0
11-22Washington (105.3)P12A94-88L0%0.0
11-24Binghamton (270.8)AEN64-72L0%0.0
11-25Florida Gulf Coast (93.4)ASunA68-67L0%0.0
11-29Kansas (7.5)B12A91-61L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico St. (126.1)WACA0-028%-7.0
12-7Pepperdine (185.5)WCCH0-065%4.5
12-10Texas (135.5)B12A0-017%-11.6
12-16Oregon St. (264.9)P12A0-047%-1.0
12-22Colorado St. (89.8)MWCH0-038%-3.7
12-29Eastern Michigan (101.7)MACA0-025%-8.2
1-4UC Irvine (155.6)BWA0-033%-5.4
1-7UC Riverside (291.2)BWH0-076%8.7
1-11Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWH0-067%5.4
1-14Hawaii (274.4)BWA0-044%-1.7
1-19UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWH0-073%7.2
1-21Cal Poly (281.6)BWA0-055%1.6
1-26Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWH0-081%10.7
2-1Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWA0-047%-0.8
2-4UC Irvine (155.6)BWH0-053%0.8
2-9UC Riverside (291.2)BWA0-058%2.5
2-11Cal St. Fullerton (331.5)BWA0-065%4.5
2-16UC Davis (236.9)BWH0-068%5.7
2-18UC Santa Barbara (274.6)BWA0-054%1.1
2-23Cal Poly (281.6)BWH0-074%7.8
2-25UC Davis (236.9)BWA0-048%-0.5
3-4Hawaii (274.4)BWH0-065%4.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW28.5926.370.0044.48-28.59-2.91
Cal PolyBW0.004.2533.3335.98-0.00-1.19
UC IrvineBW0.004.2250.0054.490.000.38
Cal St. FullertonBW0.454.2116.6730.26-0.30-1.66
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.394.2116.6743.33-0.26-0.56
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.004.210.0033.17-0.00-1.42
HawaiiBW0.454.2150.0051.400.000.12
UC RiversideBW0.394.210.0033.49-0.39-1.39
UC DavisBW0.004.1957.1448.900.00-0.09
UCLAP126.251.97100.0083.006.251.30
WashingtonP126.251.8750.0050.990.000.04
North CarolinaACC6.251.7683.3379.344.171.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.001.7571.4367.960.000.63
Oregon St.P120.001.7528.5722.74-0.00-0.95
PepperdineWCC0.001.7350.0035.220.00-0.51
Colorado St.MWC0.001.7383.3361.470.000.40
Wichita St.MVC6.701.7266.6785.552.231.22
LouisvilleACC6.701.7283.3375.154.460.87
KansasB126.251.7283.3375.374.170.87
TexasB120.001.7250.0034.670.00-0.53
BinghamtonAE6.771.7033.3338.75-2.26-0.38
Florida Gulf CoastASun6.701.7040.0070.23-1.340.69
Eastern MichiganMAC0.001.6750.0055.100.000.17
PortlandWCC0.390.3060.0057.170.080.04
CaliforniaP120.000.2883.3363.610.000.08
USCP120.000.26100.0075.380.000.13
San DiegoWCC0.390.2428.5727.50-0.17-0.11
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.2437.5036.24-0.00-0.07
StanfordP120.000.2375.0059.100.000.04
Arizona St.P120.000.2357.1436.050.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.2233.3348.73-0.00-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2150.0056.260.000.03
UNLVMWC0.000.2171.4349.590.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.2120.0042.63-0.00-0.03
PacificWCC0.390.2050.0049.010.00-0.00
NevadaMWC0.000.2075.0070.470.000.08
UtahP120.000.2075.0061.040.000.04
ArizonaP120.000.1985.7170.990.000.08
ColoradoP120.000.1971.4359.850.000.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.1950.0059.670.000.04
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1860.0058.950.000.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.1842.8645.30-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.1871.4358.670.000.03
BaylorB120.970.17100.0074.460.970.08
TCUB120.890.16100.0059.480.890.03
Oklahoma St.B120.450.1683.3356.560.300.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1533.3345.60-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1460.0039.610.00-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.1414.2937.52-0.00-0.04
PittsburghACC0.000.1485.7155.550.000.02
OregonP120.000.1471.4366.730.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1450.0036.820.00-0.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1485.7155.890.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.1483.3351.920.000.01
PrincetonIvy0.000.1225.0063.95-0.000.03
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1250.0066.170.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.1283.3369.840.000.05
Boise St.MWC0.000.1250.0058.980.000.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1283.3350.740.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0042.710.00-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.1216.6736.45-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.040.000.09
Utah St.MWC0.000.1150.0053.560.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.110.0021.30-0.00-0.06
SyracuseACC0.000.1166.6770.140.000.04
DukeACC0.450.1187.5078.680.330.06
Iowa St.B120.000.1171.4368.970.000.04
KentuckySEC0.000.11100.0086.250.000.08
Texas TechB120.000.1185.7163.780.000.03
VirginiaACC0.000.11100.0082.550.000.07
West VirginiaB120.000.1183.3380.550.000.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0920.0034.39-0.00-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0916.6736.35-0.00-0.03
MontanaBSky0.000.0914.2947.44-0.00-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0916.6740.71-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0957.1469.300.000.04
St. John'sBE0.450.0928.5733.92-0.19-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0966.6756.360.000.01
Portland St.BSky0.000.0925.0040.37-0.00-0.02
VermontAE0.000.0962.5071.630.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.390.0966.6766.100.130.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0971.4356.050.000.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0928.5728.46-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.0920.0054.94-0.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.000.0950.0051.820.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.450.0914.2928.15-0.32-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.450.0833.3340.39-0.15-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0840.0057.49-0.000.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0850.0046.670.00-0.01
IndianaB100.890.0883.3375.060.600.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0871.4350.570.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.08100.0075.010.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0024.25-0.00-0.03
DenverSum0.000.0633.3341.11-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0671.4354.520.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0657.1440.590.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.310.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0614.2934.56-0.00-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0650.0052.330.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.0017.30-0.00-0.04
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0650.0045.410.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0614.2929.81-0.00-0.02
IonaMAAC0.000.0660.0070.140.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.480.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0657.1447.320.00-0.00
LipscombASun0.000.0614.2933.07-0.00-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0616.6737.09-0.00-0.02
NJITASun0.000.0642.8650.32-0.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0614.2931.71-0.00-0.02
OhioMAC0.000.0680.0068.320.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0023.26-0.00-0.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.26-0.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0642.8650.36-0.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0633.3338.20-0.00-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0625.0024.28-0.00-0.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0628.5730.29-0.00-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.0625.0043.26-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.450.0616.6733.69-0.30-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0060.380.000.01
ElonCAA0.000.0683.3358.030.000.01
HartfordAE0.000.0612.5022.55-0.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0650.0050.290.000.00
MaineAE0.000.0616.6725.61-0.00-0.03
New HampshireAE0.000.0650.0057.480.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0616.6733.82-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.06100.0069.770.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0625.0040.81-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0680.0055.340.000.01
Michigan St.B100.970.0650.0061.590.000.01
SienaMAAC0.450.0628.5750.51-0.190.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.520.0657.1464.940.070.02
BYUWCC0.000.0671.4368.660.000.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3380.700.000.04
IdahoBSky0.000.0640.0050.88-0.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3333.15-0.00-0.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0650.0061.810.000.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0683.3378.430.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0675.0074.990.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0640.0037.44-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0683.3370.360.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0660.0048.590.00-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.450.060.0034.23-0.45-0.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0650.0029.280.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3346.81-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0666.6754.420.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0675.0064.960.000.02
TulsaAmer0.450.0660.0039.200.09-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0550.0027.250.00-0.02
ClemsonACC0.000.0566.6753.460.000.00
DavidsonA100.000.0583.3368.880.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0585.7162.410.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.450.0566.6754.380.150.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0566.6739.720.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0571.4365.740.000.02
MichiganB100.000.0571.4366.530.000.02
NebraskaB100.390.0550.0043.610.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.450.0557.1461.940.060.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0585.7162.920.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0571.4352.370.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0316.6731.91-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0340.0050.91-0.000.00
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0019.51-0.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.520.0387.5075.320.390.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0320.0048.38-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0340.0067.95-0.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0350.0033.010.00-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0342.8637.25-0.00-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0357.1455.810.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.450.0340.0037.65-0.09-0.01
ColgatePat0.000.0320.0041.31-0.00-0.01
CornellIvy0.450.0328.5730.63-0.19-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0333.3340.49-0.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0340.0043.86-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.450.0385.7178.150.320.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0032.39-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0340.0061.37-0.000.01
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0366.6761.340.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0350.0056.430.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0366.6770.740.000.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0360.0043.970.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.450.0371.4349.770.19-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0371.4343.020.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0316.6732.62-0.00-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0333.3326.75-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0024.19-0.00-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.450.030.0027.77-0.45-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.450.0342.8634.17-0.06-0.01
YaleIvy0.450.0333.3364.14-0.150.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0366.6756.020.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0383.3362.840.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.450.0366.6769.810.150.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0342.8646.78-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6751.460.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0037.92-0.00-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0320.0032.60-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0371.4371.570.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0371.4366.220.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0385.7172.660.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.450.0366.6765.810.150.01
PurdueB100.450.0371.4374.450.190.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0333.3336.31-0.00-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0325.0034.47-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0357.1467.020.000.01
TulaneAmer0.450.0314.2926.81-0.32-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.450.0350.0064.840.000.01
William & MaryCAA0.450.0340.0055.44-0.090.00
WisconsinB100.450.0375.0073.840.220.01