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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Long Beach St.

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:166.0
Current RPI:166
Expected SOS:130
Current SOS:130
Current Record:13-17
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:11-7
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:174
Expected OOC SOS:8



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-17166.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Beach St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Arizona (2.0)P12A91-57L0%0.0
11-14Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCH73-74L0%0.0
11-17Kansas St. (51.0)B12A71-58L0%0.0
11-21Michigan (11.0)B10N85-61L0%0.0
11-22VCU (13.0)A10N73-67L0%0.0
11-24Kansas St. (51.0)B12N38-52L0%0.0
11-30Washington (104.0)P12A92-89L0%0.0
12-3Creighton (10.0)BEH61-78L0%0.0
12-7North Carolina St. (55.0)ACCA76-66L0%0.0
12-19USC (176.0)P12H72-71W100%0.0
12-28Nevada (137.0)MWCA77-80W100%0.0
1-4Missouri (49.0)SECA69-59L0%0.0
1-9UC Irvine (111.0)BWH44-46L0%0.0
1-11UC Davis (326.0)BWH99-74W100%0.0
1-16UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA64-51L0%0.0
1-18Cal Poly (208.0)BWA62-63W100%0.0
1-25Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH76-62W100%0.0
1-30Hawaii (160.0)BWA83-92W100%0.0
2-1Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH75-56W100%0.0
2-6UC Irvine (111.0)BWA61-58L0%0.0
2-8UC Riverside (319.0)BWA76-88W100%0.0
2-13UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH64-65L0%0.0
2-15Cal Poly (208.0)BWH74-65W100%0.0
2-20UC Davis (326.0)BWA57-79W100%0.0
2-27Hawaii (160.0)BWH63-61W100%0.0
3-1Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA84-76L0%0.0
3-6Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA91-83L0%0.0
3-8UC Riverside (319.0)BWH74-67W100%0.0
3-13Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWN66-56W100%0.0
3-14Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWN77-82L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Beach St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Long Beach St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Long Beach St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Long Beach St.BW26.5126.5144.8544.85-2.73-2.73
Cal St. NorthridgeBW5.985.9843.3343.33-0.80-0.80
Cal St. FullertonBW5.865.8635.7135.71-1.67-1.67
Cal PolyBW4.484.4839.2939.29-0.96-0.96
UC IrvineBW4.364.3663.3363.331.161.16
HawaiiBW4.314.3166.6766.671.441.44
UC RiversideBW4.294.2929.6329.63-1.75-1.75
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.264.2665.3865.381.311.31
UC DavisBW4.244.2425.9325.93-2.04-2.04
Kansas St.B123.333.3360.0060.000.670.67
USCP121.871.8733.3333.33-0.62-0.62
NevadaMWC1.801.8048.3948.39-0.06-0.06
ArizonaP121.801.8087.8887.881.361.36
Loyola MarymountWCC1.781.7836.6736.67-0.47-0.47
MissouriSEC1.771.7765.6265.620.550.55
WashingtonP121.771.7751.6151.610.060.06
North Carolina St.ACC1.691.6960.6160.610.360.36
MichiganB101.691.6975.0075.000.850.85
CreightonBE1.671.6778.1278.120.940.94
VCUA101.671.6775.7675.760.860.86
SeattleWAC0.440.4439.2939.29-0.09-0.09
CaliforniaP120.320.3259.3859.380.060.06
StanfordP120.290.2963.6463.640.080.08
Montana St.BSky0.290.2941.3841.38-0.05-0.05
ColoradoP120.270.2767.6567.650.090.09
UtahP120.260.2663.3363.330.070.07
OregonP120.260.2671.8871.880.110.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.250.2542.8642.86-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.240.2446.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.240.2476.4776.470.130.13
Fresno St.MWC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
Oregon St.P120.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
IdahoWAC0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.200.2054.8454.840.020.02
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1917.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.1938.7138.71-0.04-0.04
PacificWCC0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.180.1878.7978.790.100.10
Arizona St.P120.180.1865.6265.620.060.06
Air ForceMWC0.170.1735.7135.71-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Miami FLACC0.150.1551.5251.520.000.00
George WashingtonA100.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
PortlandWCC0.140.1448.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.130.133.573.57-0.12-0.12
PittsburghACC0.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
MarquetteBE0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Texas TechB120.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
GeorgetownBE0.130.1354.8454.840.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
BaylorB120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
KansasB120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
OklahomaB120.100.1071.8871.880.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Washington St.P120.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
DukeACC0.100.1076.4776.470.050.05
South Dakota St.Sum0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
MontanaBSky0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.080.0887.5087.500.060.06
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
IndianaB100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
DePaulBE0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
NebraskaB100.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
NorthwesternB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
RichmondA100.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
North DakotaBSky0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0524.0024.00-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DaytonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
IowaB100.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Virginia TechACC0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Chicago St.WAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0219.2319.23-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
DetroitHorz0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandACC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WinthropBSth0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00