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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:294.0
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:213
Current SOS:213
Current Record:8-21
Expected Record:8-21
Current Conf Record:3-16
Expected Conf Record:3-16
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-6
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:259
Expected OOC SOS:330



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-21294.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Bradley (265.0)MVCA80-70L0%0.0
11-16Pepperdine (159.0)WCCH71-88L0%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (305.0)OVCH90-75W100%0.0
11-22Montana St. (275.0)BSkyH54-59L0%0.0
11-23Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH90-76W100%0.0
11-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA64-68W100%0.0
11-30Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCH66-61W100%0.0
12-7SIU Edwardsville (320.0)OVCA64-65W100%0.0
12-14Dayton (43.0)A10A84-58L0%0.0
12-17Jacksonville St. (317.0)OVCA82-73L0%0.0
1-8Miami OH (161.0)MACH70-77L0%0.0
1-11Toledo (38.0)MACA86-71L0%0.0
1-15Bowling Green (194.0)MACA67-57L0%0.0
1-18Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACH59-72L0%0.0
1-22Miami OH (161.0)MACA86-80L0%0.0
1-25Akron (93.0)MACH74-82L0%0.0
1-29Ohio (87.0)MACA71-67L0%0.0
2-1Western Michigan (66.0)MACA75-72L0%0.0
2-5Kent St. (213.0)MACH78-73W100%0.0
2-8Buffalo (106.0)MACH70-79L0%0.0
2-12Northern Illinois (217.0)MACA88-63L0%0.0
2-15Kent St. (213.0)MACA83-75L0%0.0
2-19Ball St. (309.0)MACH101-95W100%0.0
2-23Northern Illinois (217.0)MACH70-67W100%0.0
2-26Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA64-42L0%0.0
3-1Ball St. (309.0)MACA74-71L0%0.0
3-4Toledo (38.0)MACH69-73L0%0.0
3-7Western Michigan (66.0)MACH64-78L0%0.0
3-10Eastern Michigan (86.0)MACA72-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.3826.3825.2025.20-13.09-13.09
Eastern MichiganMAC6.046.0451.7251.720.210.21
Northern IllinoisMAC4.374.3744.8344.83-0.45-0.45
ToledoMAC4.374.3780.0080.002.622.62
Western MichiganMAC4.344.3468.9768.971.651.65
Ball St.MAC4.254.257.697.69-3.59-3.59
Miami OHMAC4.234.2339.2939.29-0.91-0.91
Kent St.MAC4.214.2148.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Jacksonville St.OVC3.543.5425.9325.93-1.70-1.70
OhioMAC2.682.6865.6265.620.840.84
AkronMAC2.652.6562.5062.500.660.66
BuffaloMAC2.622.6262.9662.960.680.68
Bowling GreenMAC2.612.6133.3333.33-0.87-0.87
Austin PeayOVC1.901.9037.0437.04-0.49-0.49
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.851.8546.8846.88-0.12-0.12
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.851.8532.1432.14-0.66-0.66
Montana St.BSky1.811.8139.2939.29-0.39-0.39
BradleyMVC1.781.7835.4835.48-0.52-0.52
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.751.7555.5655.560.190.19
DaytonA101.721.7268.7568.750.650.65
PepperdineWCC1.721.7244.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Tennessee St.OVC0.290.2913.7913.79-0.21-0.21
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.2863.3363.330.070.07
MassachusettsA100.250.2575.0075.000.120.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.240.2453.3353.330.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2340.6240.62-0.04-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.210.2158.0658.060.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.210.2159.2659.260.040.04
IPFWSum0.200.2067.7467.740.070.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.180.1832.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.180.1820.6920.69-0.11-0.11
BelmontOVC0.180.1871.8871.880.080.08
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.180.1870.9770.970.080.08
UC RiversideBW0.170.1727.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
OaklandHorz0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1438.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.130.1362.0762.070.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.120.1235.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Oral RobertsSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1268.9768.970.040.04
DartmouthIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Iowa St.B120.110.1178.7978.790.060.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Green BayHorz0.110.1177.7877.780.060.06
DrakeMVC0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.090.0924.0024.00-0.05-0.05
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0914.8114.81-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
ValparaisoHorz0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0941.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.090.093.573.57-0.08-0.08
Wright St.Horz0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
PacificWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0817.2417.24-0.06-0.06
GonzagaWCC0.080.0881.8281.820.050.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UC DavisBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0816.6716.67-0.05-0.05
UC IrvineBW0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
DukeACC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
PurdueB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
ButlerBE0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
BYUWCC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
Oregon St.P120.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.063.703.70-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.030.03
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0630.3030.30-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.060.0670.3770.370.020.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TempleAmer0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
KansasB120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
FordhamA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
IdahoWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0541.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
DrexelCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
DenverSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckySB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
IUPUISum0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00