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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:216.0
Current RPI:216
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:240
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:307



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16216.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tennessee Tech (277.0)OVCA74-86W100%0.0
11-21Pepperdine (245.0)WCCN77-88W100%0.0
11-22St. Bonaventure (91.0)A10N102-71L0%0.0
11-23Little Rock (243.0)SBN79-91L0%0.0
11-26Green Bay (157.0)HorzA77-89W100%0.0
11-29William & Mary (110.0)CAAH91-81W100%0.0
12-3Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH82-59W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (157.0)HorzH107-97W100%0.0
12-10Illinois (62.0)B10A92-73L0%0.0
12-21Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA103-106W100%0.0
12-30Chicago St. (318.0)WACH90-82W100%0.0
1-3Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACA85-63L0%0.0
1-7Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA87-83L0%0.0
1-10Akron (58.0)MACH85-89L0%0.0
1-13Toledo (155.0)MACH96-88W100%0.0
1-17Ball St. (169.0)MACA98-83L0%0.0
1-21Miami OH (302.0)MACH101-92W100%0.0
1-24Bowling Green (225.0)MACH82-76W100%0.0
1-28Kent St. (142.0)MACA98-105W100%0.0
1-31Buffalo (146.0)MACA101-91L0%0.0
2-3Western Michigan (173.0)MACH86-82W100%0.0
2-7Ohio (117.0)MACA87-97W100%0.0
2-11Miami OH (302.0)MACA81-76L0%0.0
2-14Buffalo (146.0)MACH93-99L0%0.0
2-18Ball St. (169.0)MACH100-109L0%0.0
2-21Northern Illinois (241.0)MACH66-89L0%0.0
2-24Toledo (155.0)MACA87-66L0%0.0
2-28Eastern Michigan (174.0)MACH81-109L0%0.0
3-3Western Michigan (173.0)MACA88-80L0%0.0
3-6Kent St. (142.0)MACA116-106L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.3126.3147.0647.06-1.55-1.55
Kent St.MAC4.214.2162.5062.501.051.05
ToledoMAC4.204.2050.0050.000.000.00
Ball St.MAC4.184.1860.0060.000.840.84
Western MichiganMAC4.174.1748.2848.28-0.14-0.14
Northern IllinoisMAC4.174.1737.0437.04-1.08-1.08
Eastern MichiganMAC4.144.1437.0437.04-1.07-1.07
Miami OHMAC4.114.1128.5728.57-1.76-1.76
BuffaloMAC4.104.1046.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Green BayHorz3.413.4159.2659.260.630.63
AkronMAC2.642.6475.0075.001.321.32
OhioMAC2.602.6065.5265.520.810.81
Bowling GreenMAC2.582.5840.0040.00-0.52-0.52
St. BonaventureA101.781.7861.2961.290.400.40
Tennessee TechOVC1.751.7534.4834.48-0.54-0.54
Little RockSB1.751.7541.3841.38-0.30-0.30
PepperdineWCC1.721.7227.5927.59-0.77-0.77
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Chicago St.WAC1.671.6710.7110.71-1.31-1.31
IllinoisB101.671.6753.3353.330.110.11
Montana St.BSky1.671.6748.2848.28-0.06-0.06
William & MaryCAA1.671.6753.5753.570.120.12
DetroitHorz0.280.2823.3323.33-0.15-0.15
Wright St.Horz0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.260.2641.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.250.2526.6726.67-0.11-0.11
OaklandHorz0.220.2273.3373.330.100.10
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.220.2284.3884.380.150.15
Northern KentuckyHorz0.200.2068.7568.750.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2074.1974.190.090.09
Youngstown St.Horz0.190.1934.3834.38-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.196.906.90-0.17-0.17
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1729.4129.41-0.07-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.170.1733.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.160.1643.3343.33-0.02-0.02
ElonCAA0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
UMKCWAC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.140.1455.1755.170.010.01
PacificWCC0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
Murray St.OVC0.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.140.1428.1228.12-0.06-0.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Weber St.BSky0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
Saint LouisA100.130.1336.3636.36-0.04-0.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
South DakotaSum0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.130.1330.3030.30-0.05-0.05
WisconsinB100.110.1173.5373.530.050.05
DelawareCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PittsburghACC0.110.1148.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.1123.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1134.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
NortheasternCAA0.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.110.1155.8855.880.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
Cal PolyBW0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.090.0968.9768.970.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
SeattleWAC0.090.0937.0437.04-0.02-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TroySB0.080.0858.8258.820.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0823.0823.08-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.080.0877.7877.780.050.05
MontanaBSky0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
CreightonBE0.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.080.0896.9796.970.080.08
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.060.0684.8584.850.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
LipscombASun0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.060.0619.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0687.5087.500.040.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0653.5753.570.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
UCFAmer0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
IowaB100.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
WashingtonP120.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0377.1477.140.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
UtahP120.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Washington St.P120.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Air ForceMWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00