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Through games of Mar 11, 2012.

Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:280.0
Current RPI:280
Expected SOS:265
Current SOS:265
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:6-12
Expected Conf Record:6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-9
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:273
Expected OOC SOS:259


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21280.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Charlotte (167.0)A10H75-77L0%0.0
11-21Pepperdine (271.0)WCCA57-67W100%0.0
11-24New Mexico St. (59.0)WACN78-49L0%0.0
11-25UC Irvine (254.0)BWN82-72W100%0.0
11-26Dartmouth (328.0)IvyN48-65W100%0.0
12-3Temple (19.0)A10A86-74L0%0.0
12-10Tennessee St. (107.0)OVCA65-57L0%0.0
12-13Minnesota (89.0)B10A76-56L0%0.0
12-16Illinois Chicago (297.0)HorzH70-67W100%0.0
12-18Iowa St. (33.0)B12A59-52L0%0.0
12-20Nebraska (154.0)B10A72-69L0%0.0
12-22Wright St. (224.0)HorzA60-42L0%0.0
1-7Toledo (246.0)MACH85-69W100%0.0
1-11Eastern Michigan (243.0)MACA56-60W100%0.0
1-14Northern Illinois (334.0)MACA74-66L0%0.0
1-18Ball St. (256.0)MACH52-73L0%0.0
1-21Western Michigan (205.0)MACA64-61L0%0.0
1-25Bowling Green (158.0)MACA71-58L0%0.0
1-28Akron (55.0)MACH64-74L0%0.0
1-31Kent St. (106.0)MACH60-67L0%0.0
2-4Ohio (47.0)MACA68-42L0%0.0
2-8Buffalo (78.0)MACH62-66L0%0.0
2-11Miami OH (247.0)MACA69-50L0%0.0
2-14Eastern Michigan (243.0)MACH55-52W100%0.0
2-18Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)SlndH47-49L0%0.0
2-22Toledo (246.0)MACA72-67L0%0.0
2-26Northern Illinois (334.0)MACH74-64W100%0.0
2-29Ball St. (256.0)MACA71-52L0%0.0
3-2Western Michigan (205.0)MACH76-70W100%0.0
3-5Bowling Green (158.0)MACA53-54W100%0.0
3-7Toledo (246.0)MACN75-72L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.2426.2433.5833.58-8.62-8.62
ToledoMAC5.565.5648.2848.28-0.19-0.19
Western MichiganMAC4.054.0538.7138.71-0.92-0.92
Northern IllinoisMAC4.014.0111.1111.11-3.12-3.12
Eastern MichiganMAC3.973.9744.8344.83-0.41-0.41
Ball St.MAC3.923.9244.4444.44-0.44-0.44
Bowling GreenMAC3.803.8050.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC2.382.3878.1278.121.341.34
Miami OHMAC2.352.3525.0025.00-1.17-1.17
Kent St.MAC2.292.2963.3363.330.610.61
AkronMAC2.272.2764.5264.520.660.66
BuffaloMAC2.272.2762.9662.960.590.59
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.851.8525.9325.93-0.89-0.89
TempleA101.851.8576.6776.670.980.98
Wright St.Horz1.751.7536.6736.67-0.47-0.47
MinnesotaB101.671.6756.2556.250.210.21
CharlotteA101.661.6641.3841.38-0.29-0.29
NebraskaB101.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
Tennessee St.OVC1.641.6458.6258.620.280.28
DartmouthIvy1.611.6114.2914.29-1.15-1.15
Iowa St.B121.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
New Mexico St.WAC1.611.6171.8871.880.710.71
PepperdineWCC1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.611.6117.2417.24-1.06-1.06
UC IrvineBW1.611.6135.7135.71-0.46-0.46
PurdueB100.260.2663.6463.640.070.07
ValparaisoHorz0.240.2464.5264.520.070.07
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2458.0658.060.040.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.240.2448.2848.28-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.240.2460.6160.610.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.240.2467.7467.740.080.08
Michigan St.B100.210.2178.7978.790.120.12
ButlerHorz0.190.1957.5857.580.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
IowaB100.180.1851.5251.520.010.01
DuquesneA100.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.160.1640.0040.00-0.03-0.03
DaytonA100.160.1662.5062.500.040.04
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.160.1646.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.160.1626.6726.67-0.07-0.07
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1432.0032.00-0.05-0.05
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.136.906.90-0.12-0.12
George WashingtonA100.130.1332.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
Chicago St.GWC0.130.1310.7110.71-0.10-0.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Texas St.Slnd0.130.1334.6234.62-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1378.1278.120.070.07
San DiegoWCC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
XavierA100.110.1163.6463.640.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
WisconsinB100.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HawaiiWAC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Utah St.WAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
DrakeMVC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
TexasB120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
MichiganB100.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
NorthwesternB100.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
Brigham YoungWCC0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.080.0819.2319.23-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.080.0840.7440.74-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
PennsylvaniaIvy0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.080.0896.4396.430.070.07
Western KentuckySB0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
DePaulBE0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
ColgatePat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Rhode IslandA100.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
St. LouisA100.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
St. Peter'sMAAC0.080.0816.1316.13-0.05-0.05
FordhamA100.080.0834.4834.48-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
MassachusettsA100.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
RadfordBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.086.676.67-0.07-0.07
LamarSlnd0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
West VirginiaBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfieldind0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MB120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
San Jose St.WAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Southern MississippiCUSA0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
NC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
South Carolina UpstateASun0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
DukeACC0.070.0781.8281.820.050.05
IdahoWAC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
Fresno St.WAC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechWAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0753.5753.570.010.01
OaklandSum0.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Seattleind0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.060.0686.2186.210.040.04
PacificBW0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
Utah ValleyGWC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
YaleIvy0.060.0665.3865.380.020.02
BelmontASun0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiBE0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Florida InternationalSB0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
BucknellPat0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Middle TennesseeSB0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SyracuseBE0.050.0593.9493.940.050.05
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.050.0518.7518.75-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
KansasB120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MissouriB120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
OklahomaB120.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0530.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
NevadaWAC0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
Texas El PasoCUSA0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
AlbanyAE0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
ArmyPat0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ElonSC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Holy CrossPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
IUPU Fort WayneSum0.030.0329.6329.63-0.01-0.01
Longwoodind0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
Louisiana St.SEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
New HampshireAE0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Notre DameBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
RutgersBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
VermontAE0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0319.2319.23-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CreightonMVC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
DavidsonSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
DenverSB0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HoustonCUSA0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
MemphisCUSA0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0328.0028.00-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0334.6234.62-0.01-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
College of CharlestonSC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
MarylandACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Missouri Kansas CitySum0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UABCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
VillanovaBE0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
LehighPat0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Appalachian St.SC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
LouisvilleBE0.020.0274.2974.290.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
NC AshevilleBSth0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00