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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:70.0
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:162
Current SOS:162
Current Record:20-8
Expected Record:20-8
Current Conf Record:13-7
Expected Conf Record:13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:348



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-870.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH75-63W100%0.0
11-21Maine (339.0)AEH76-48W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (302.0)SWACH75-43W100%0.0
11-29Grand Canyon (274.0)WACH79-77W100%0.0
12-2Bradley (288.0)MVCA84-73L0%0.0
12-6SIU Edwardsville (292.0)OVCH94-61W100%0.0
12-17Northwestern (125.0)B10A67-80W100%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (279.0)SlndA58-87W100%0.0
1-6Toledo (79.0)MACA62-65W100%0.0
1-10Ball St. (284.0)MACA83-65L0%0.0
1-14Miami OH (229.0)MACH105-77W100%0.0
1-17Akron (115.0)MACA82-76L0%0.0
1-21Buffalo (28.0)MACH84-73W100%0.0
1-24Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACH65-51W100%0.0
1-27Kent St. (94.0)MACA63-53L0%0.0
1-31Ohio (231.0)MACH74-69W100%0.0
2-4Bowling Green (109.0)MACH74-76L0%0.0
2-7Western Michigan (119.0)MACH70-65W100%0.0
2-10Ohio (231.0)MACA57-68W100%0.0
2-14Buffalo (28.0)MACA74-75W100%0.0
2-18Northern Illinois (185.0)MACH68-66W100%0.0
2-21Ball St. (284.0)MACH83-60W100%0.0
2-24Eastern Michigan (139.0)MACA56-72W100%0.0
2-28Northern Illinois (185.0)MACA73-55L0%0.0
3-3Toledo (79.0)MACH85-77W100%0.0
3-6Western Michigan (119.0)MACA74-62L0%0.0
3-13Toledo (79.0)MACN75-66W100%0.0
3-14Buffalo (28.0)MACN84-89L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.4526.4574.1474.1412.7712.77
ToledoMAC6.246.2466.6766.672.082.08
BuffaloMAC6.146.1475.8675.863.183.18
Eastern MichiganMAC4.614.6160.7160.710.990.99
Western MichiganMAC4.584.5858.6258.620.790.79
Northern IllinoisMAC4.464.4644.4444.44-0.50-0.50
Ball St.MAC4.444.4418.5218.52-2.79-2.79
OhioMAC4.434.4335.7135.71-1.27-1.27
AkronMAC2.972.9757.5857.580.450.45
Bowling GreenMAC2.812.8165.5265.520.870.87
Miami OHMAC2.772.7740.0040.00-0.55-0.55
Kent St.MAC2.762.7663.3363.330.740.74
Youngstown St.Horz1.871.8728.5728.57-0.80-0.80
NorthwesternB101.871.8748.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.871.8738.7138.71-0.42-0.42
Grand CanyonWAC1.871.8753.5753.570.130.13
McNeese St.Slnd1.871.8742.3142.31-0.29-0.29
MaineAE1.851.8510.3410.34-1.47-1.47
BradleyMVC1.791.7922.5822.58-0.98-0.98
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
OaklandHorz0.260.2646.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2351.7251.720.010.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.220.2257.5857.580.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.210.2117.2417.24-0.14-0.14
DetroitHorz0.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1883.3383.330.120.12
LongwoodBSth0.180.1828.1228.12-0.08-0.08
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1753.3353.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.150.1518.7518.75-0.09-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1460.0060.000.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.140.1416.6716.67-0.10-0.10
Michigan St.B100.140.1467.6567.650.050.05
St. BonaventureA100.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.140.1491.1891.180.110.11
UMKCWAC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.120.1231.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.1234.3834.38-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.120.1275.7675.760.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.120.120.000.00-0.12-0.12
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
New HampshireAE0.120.1258.6258.620.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
MichiganB100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.120.1231.0331.03-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.110.11100.00100.000.110.11
Northern IowaMVC0.110.1190.9190.910.090.09
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.1055.5655.560.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1039.2939.29-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
UC RiversideBW0.090.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
NebraskaB100.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
IndianaB100.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
UMBCAE0.090.0913.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
CornellIvy0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
BucknellPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
OregonP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
VCUA100.080.0874.2974.290.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.070.0721.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.070.0783.3383.330.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.070.076.906.90-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.070.0742.3142.31-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
IPFWSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Notre DameACC0.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
HartfordAE0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
VermontAE0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
ButlerBE0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ElonCAA0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0687.1087.100.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
CampbellBSth0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0372.4172.410.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.036.906.90-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.030.0374.0774.070.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MemphisAmer0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0323.0823.08-0.01-0.01