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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:146.9
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:182
Current SOS:236
Current Record:10-6
Expected Record:16-12
Current Conf Record:2-4
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-3
Current OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC Record:8-2
Expected OOC RPI:95
Expected OOC SOS:318



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-656.00.01%
21-765.40.35%
20-878.82.38%
19-995.27.23%
18-10115.015.93%
17-11135.623.03%
16-12156.823.34%
15-13176.316.29%
14-14194.97.77%
13-15211.82.77%
12-16227.90.81%
11-17242.50.08%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Michigan (37.6)B10A72-65L0%0.0
11-22Sam Houston St. (221.0)SlndN60-71W100%0.0
11-24Cal Poly (282.9)BWN56-53W100%0.0
11-25Cal St. Bakersfield (216.8)WACN72-75W100%0.0
12-1Jackson St. (292.3)SWACH70-63W100%0.0
12-5Montana St. (220.8)BSkyH75-48W100%0.0
12-9Tennessee Tech (170.9)OVCH74-69W100%0.0
12-16Southern Utah (264.2)BSkyA86-80L0%0.0
12-19UMKC (262.9)WACA86-92W100%0.0
12-22SIU Edwardsville (271.7)OVCH70-52W100%0.0
1-2Ohio (173.1)MACH75-50W100%0.0
1-6Kent St. (185.1)MACA85-69L0%0.0
1-9Eastern Michigan (177.1)MACA79-74L0%0.0
1-13Toledo (70.4)MACH82-93L0%0.0
1-16Ball St. (115.8)MACA82-76L0%0.0
1-20Bowling Green (187.8)MACA75-84W100%0.0
1-23Miami OH (185.4)MACH0-076%7.8
1-27Kent St. (185.1)MACH0-067%4.8
1-30Northern Illinois (225.3)MACH0-074%7.3
2-3Ohio (173.1)MACA0-040%-2.8
2-6Buffalo (33.5)MACH0-035%-4.2
2-10Akron (213.5)MACA0-049%-0.3
2-13Northern Illinois (225.3)MACA0-053%0.9
2-17Eastern Michigan (177.1)MACH0-063%3.7
2-20Western Michigan (163.8)MACA0-039%-3.0
2-24Toledo (70.4)MACA0-025%-7.4
2-27Ball St. (115.8)MACH0-060%2.8
3-2Western Michigan (163.8)MACH0-062%3.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.4226.3066.6759.258.814.86
ToledoMAC3.394.4464.7166.301.001.45
Ball St.MAC3.414.4358.8257.890.600.70
Northern IllinoisMAC0.374.3741.1839.37-0.07-0.93
Western MichiganMAC0.264.3752.9452.440.020.21
Eastern MichiganMAC3.404.3642.8645.26-0.49-0.41
Kent St.MAC3.304.3141.1843.37-0.58-0.57
OhioMAC3.494.3050.0049.780.00-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC3.232.6562.5051.540.810.08
Miami OHMAC0.362.6547.0642.02-0.02-0.42
BuffaloMAC0.172.6472.2275.280.081.34
AkronMAC0.282.6447.0644.69-0.02-0.28
Jackson St.SWAC3.301.9041.1844.99-0.58-0.19
UMKCWAC3.221.8522.2225.67-1.79-0.90
Montana St.BSky3.221.8552.9449.360.19-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC3.211.8531.2534.53-1.20-0.57
Southern UtahBSky3.211.8533.3331.23-1.07-0.69
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC3.121.8238.8933.93-0.69-0.58
Tennessee TechOVC3.121.8261.1155.090.690.19
Cal PolyBW3.121.7925.0029.25-1.56-0.74
MichiganB103.121.7975.0069.731.560.70
Sam Houston St.Slnd3.121.7946.6751.02-0.210.04
IdahoBSky0.470.2964.7166.850.140.10
Chicago St.WAC0.170.290.003.07-0.17-0.27
OaklandHorz0.300.2561.9065.160.070.08
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.2120.0023.34-0.10-0.11
DaytonA100.260.1847.3750.94-0.010.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.270.1766.6766.020.090.05
Long Beach St.BW0.200.1640.0043.35-0.04-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.280.1611.1115.29-0.21-0.11
North FloridaASun0.270.1631.5835.15-0.10-0.05
SyracuseACC0.190.1668.4261.230.070.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.250.1642.1143.51-0.04-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.160.1626.3231.50-0.08-0.06
IowaB100.170.1547.6244.02-0.01-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1544.4446.00-0.02-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.1545.0047.07-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.170.1564.7162.720.050.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.250.1510.5316.75-0.20-0.10
MarshallCUSA0.180.1568.4263.650.070.04
MarylandB100.250.1570.0065.250.100.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.150.0010.67-0.09-0.12
DetroitHorz0.160.1521.0525.97-0.09-0.07
ValparaisoMVC0.260.1547.3748.77-0.01-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.170.1568.4269.250.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.1370.0071.230.030.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.1383.3384.240.060.09
SeattleWAC0.080.1357.8954.500.010.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.1345.0045.03-0.02-0.01
MontanaBSky0.180.1370.5973.150.080.06
IndianaB100.260.1357.8950.710.040.00
BelmontOVC0.160.1271.4374.660.070.06
Murray St.OVC0.160.1270.5975.950.070.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.340.1225.0028.01-0.17-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1221.0539.48-0.10-0.03
South CarolinaSEC0.000.1261.1151.910.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1235.2940.48-0.05-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1270.0068.220.000.04
Indiana St.MVC0.180.1244.4446.02-0.02-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.170.1221.0544.26-0.10-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.270.1066.6765.370.090.03
LamarSlnd0.190.1050.0054.890.000.01
Fresno St.MWC0.270.1066.6763.420.090.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.190.1052.9452.650.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.1038.8946.05-0.02-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.1043.7540.93-0.01-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.100.1056.2557.400.010.01
North DakotaBSky0.090.0929.4134.76-0.04-0.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0958.8257.140.020.01
Portland St.BSky0.090.0958.8263.210.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0916.6724.45-0.06-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.180.0970.5969.630.070.04
UC RiversideBW0.070.0917.6523.86-0.05-0.05
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0950.0050.860.000.00
Oregon St.P120.180.0957.8950.840.030.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0952.9455.030.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0933.3337.230.00-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0929.4133.930.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.0931.5832.72-0.09-0.03
Fort WayneSum0.080.0952.6351.690.000.00
Green BayHorz0.090.0925.0027.94-0.05-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0923.5328.69-0.13-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.170.0978.9574.190.100.04
IUPUIHorz0.170.0927.7829.83-0.08-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.180.0918.7536.82-0.11-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0980.9576.520.050.05
PurdueB100.160.0990.4888.370.130.07
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0727.7831.11-0.05-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.0745.0049.29-0.01-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.075.8819.35-0.09-0.04
HowardMEAC0.100.0710.5327.29-0.08-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.100.0735.0026.12-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0780.0078.850.000.04
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.077.6923.28-0.08-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.190.0666.6765.640.060.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.067.6920.09-0.15-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.190.0610.5318.34-0.15-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.190.0633.3332.94-0.06-0.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.170.0665.0062.050.050.02
San Jose St.MWC0.190.0611.7612.81-0.14-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.090.0656.2556.830.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.090.0617.6519.30-0.06-0.04
HawaiiBW0.090.0668.7563.990.030.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0658.8262.440.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.090.0630.0039.93-0.04-0.01
LSUSEC0.170.0661.1153.170.040.00
Michigan St.B100.170.0685.0083.200.120.04
PrincetonIvy0.090.0652.9460.220.010.01
South DakotaSum0.170.0673.6872.380.080.03
USC UpstateASun0.170.0611.1118.00-0.14-0.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0672.2272.980.040.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0616.6724.26-0.06-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0612.5025.45-0.07-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0630.0036.500.00-0.02
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.0652.3848.530.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
ClemsonACC0.090.0684.2173.240.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.090.069.5217.90-0.07-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0637.5037.680.00-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.090.0636.8444.11-0.02-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0642.1146.000.00-0.00
IonaMAAC0.090.0660.0064.110.020.02
Iowa St.B120.000.0661.1147.220.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.170.0652.6355.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0668.4260.550.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.170.0615.7920.91-0.12-0.04
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.090.0642.1144.96-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0647.3746.920.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.090.0627.7840.97-0.04-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.0655.0052.470.020.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0655.0053.320.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0642.8635.24-0.01-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.090.0668.4270.810.030.03
St. BonaventureA100.090.0666.6768.730.030.02
AlbanyAE0.090.0671.4370.240.040.02
BucknellPat0.090.0661.9068.020.020.02
CornellIvy0.090.0633.3333.23-0.03-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0610.0019.63-0.07-0.04
KansasB120.090.0684.2179.750.060.04
NortheasternCAA0.090.0663.1663.220.020.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0655.0050.330.000.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0663.1661.020.020.01
OklahomaB120.090.0677.7867.910.050.02
OregonP120.090.0665.0063.850.030.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0650.0051.640.000.00
Stony BrookAE0.090.0636.8445.21-0.02-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0685.7180.080.060.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.090.0621.0523.51-0.05-0.03
ArizonaP120.090.0380.0078.940.060.02
ArkansasSEC0.090.0368.4264.200.030.01
BaylorB120.100.0361.1156.090.020.00
Boise St.MWC0.100.0378.9576.990.060.02
Little RockSB0.100.0322.2225.25-0.05-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0328.5731.260.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.100.0352.6345.860.01-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.0337.5045.240.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.0350.0051.380.000.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.037.1414.82-0.08-0.02
UNLVMWC0.100.0373.6865.260.050.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0350.0052.460.000.00
CaliforniaP120.090.0336.8431.12-0.02-0.01
Kansas St.B120.080.0373.6862.720.040.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0365.0056.340.020.00
SMUAmer0.090.0370.0070.570.040.01
StanfordP120.090.0355.0050.370.010.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0360.0062.030.020.01
Wichita St.Amer0.080.0378.9577.380.050.02
BinghamtonAE0.090.0342.1139.94-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.090.0347.0647.41-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.080.0375.0070.700.040.01
DavidsonA100.000.0358.8261.450.000.01
DenverSum0.090.0333.3336.48-0.03-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0342.1134.310.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.090.0330.0030.99-0.04-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.090.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0357.8966.260.010.01
FordhamA100.000.0331.5829.060.00-0.01
FurmanSC0.080.0366.6768.540.030.01
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0045.930.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.02
LipscombASun0.080.0352.9459.340.000.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0340.0042.520.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.090.0326.6729.04-0.04-0.01
MercerSC0.090.0344.4454.86-0.010.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0366.6763.200.000.01
New MexicoMWC0.080.0345.0048.56-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0378.9576.750.050.02
South AlabamaSB0.080.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.93-0.03-0.01
TCUB120.080.0373.6865.600.040.01
TulaneAmer0.000.0363.1657.890.000.00
USCP120.000.0371.4368.280.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.090.0345.0045.49-0.01-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0361.9063.140.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0389.4785.550.000.02
IllinoisB100.070.0347.3744.27-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.070.0333.3333.77-0.02-0.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0363.6457.630.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0366.6759.820.020.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0357.1453.050.000.00
NJITASun0.000.0338.8942.610.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.01
Penn St.B100.000.0361.9055.760.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0357.1460.410.000.01
RutgersB100.070.0355.0046.690.01-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.070.0341.1838.47-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0363.1657.630.020.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0368.4263.960.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.0361.1164.130.000.01
VCUA100.070.0360.0059.700.010.01
WisconsinB100.000.0350.0046.300.00-0.00