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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:92.9
Current RPI:162
Expected SOS:194
Current SOS:344
Current Record:6-1
Expected Record:18-8
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:6-1
Expected OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC RPI:131
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
24-225.60.19%
23-332.00.98%
22-439.83.28%
21-550.48.05%
20-662.714.48%
19-778.419.22%
18-895.020.41%
17-9113.716.63%
16-10133.59.36%
15-11154.14.90%
14-12176.41.62%
13-13201.20.65%
12-14223.60.20%
11-15253.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (214.7)HorzH75-63W100%0.0
11-21Maine (324.1)AEH76-48W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (297.0)SWACH75-43W100%0.0
11-29Grand Canyon (288.2)WACH79-77W100%0.0
12-2Bradley (270.6)MVCA84-73L0%0.0
12-6SIU Edwardsville (332.6)OVCH94-61W100%0.0
12-17Northwestern (163.9)B10A67-80W100%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (234.6)SlndA0-069%6.0
1-6Toledo (104.9)MACA0-039%-3.2
1-10Ball St. (228.5)MACA0-064%4.1
1-14Miami OH (274.9)MACH0-092%16.4
1-17Akron (148.1)MACA0-049%-0.4
1-21Buffalo (46.6)MACH0-062%3.5
1-24Eastern Michigan (116.8)MACH0-072%6.8
1-27Kent St. (118.1)MACA0-044%-1.7
1-31Ohio (199.6)MACH0-086%12.7
2-4Bowling Green (92.5)MACH0-068%5.4
2-7Western Michigan (125.5)MACH0-076%8.2
2-10Ohio (199.6)MACA0-063%3.9
2-14Buffalo (46.6)MACA0-033%-5.2
2-18Northern Illinois (269.3)MACH0-092%16.7
2-21Ball St. (228.5)MACH0-086%12.9
2-24Eastern Michigan (116.8)MACA0-044%-1.9
2-28Northern Illinois (269.3)MACA0-075%8.0
3-3Toledo (104.9)MACH0-068%5.5
3-6Western Michigan (125.5)MACA0-048%-0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC27.6726.3588.0072.0221.0311.61
Eastern MichiganMAC0.324.7971.4365.100.141.45
Western MichiganMAC0.004.7862.5056.270.000.60
ToledoMAC0.004.7760.0060.320.000.98
Northern IllinoisMAC0.404.7550.0033.870.00-1.53
Ball St.MAC0.004.7228.5737.87-0.00-1.15
BuffaloMAC0.324.6975.0070.290.161.90
OhioMAC0.364.6842.8639.11-0.05-1.02
Miami OHMAC0.362.9030.0029.20-0.14-1.21
Kent St.MAC0.322.8971.4361.560.140.67
AkronMAC0.362.8960.0056.730.070.39
Bowling GreenMAC0.002.8675.0068.890.001.08
Youngstown St.Horz7.142.0350.0045.710.00-0.17
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC7.142.0322.2239.51-3.97-0.43
NorthwesternB107.142.0266.6741.972.38-0.33
MaineAE7.141.9912.5021.84-5.36-1.12
Grand CanyonWAC7.141.9940.0046.12-1.43-0.15
McNeese St.Slnd0.001.9925.0049.87-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC7.141.9225.0029.66-3.57-0.78
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC7.141.920.0024.70-7.14-0.97
OaklandHorz0.000.2730.0031.57-0.00-0.10
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2133.3338.99-0.00-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.320.2120.0026.57-0.19-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.750.2080.0069.620.450.08
Chicago St.WAC0.000.200.0011.40-0.00-0.16
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.320.2018.1821.30-0.21-0.11
Robert MorrisNEC0.720.1930.0039.44-0.29-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1777.7871.110.000.07
DrakeMVC0.000.1720.0019.99-0.00-0.10
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1733.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.1744.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.360.1672.7373.150.160.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.360.1610.0018.01-0.29-0.10
Southern IllinoisMVC0.510.1460.0049.500.10-0.00
DaytonA100.000.1477.7870.120.000.06
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1437.5040.20-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.1454.5557.300.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.1475.0065.410.000.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1460.0057.600.000.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1333.3332.85-0.00-0.05
New HampshireAE0.000.1357.1464.620.000.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0028.26-0.00-0.06
MichiganB100.000.1355.5642.550.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.320.1322.2241.92-0.18-0.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.008.88-0.00-0.11
IowaB100.000.1372.7362.590.000.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0011.87-0.00-0.10
UT ArlingtonSB0.720.1355.5654.950.080.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1325.0033.17-0.00-0.04
WisconsinB100.000.1390.9188.390.000.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1144.4447.53-0.00-0.01
BelmontOVC0.000.1160.0062.970.000.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1133.3334.28-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.320.1122.2237.75-0.18-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0014.79-0.00-0.07
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.320.1020.0034.08-0.19-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.400.1044.4447.53-0.04-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1042.8643.10-0.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.320.1066.6764.310.110.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1071.4359.920.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1037.5041.20-0.00-0.02
UMBCAE0.000.1010.0020.91-0.00-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.360.1010.0030.45-0.29-0.04
Northern IowaMVC0.360.1090.0078.050.290.05
KentuckySEC0.320.10100.0094.790.320.09
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0031.74-0.00-0.04
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0822.2230.99-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.080.0017.51-0.00-0.05
LamarSlnd0.000.0814.2934.12-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0855.5661.790.000.02
New OrleansSlnd0.000.080.0038.46-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0018.94-0.00-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0037.73-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0811.1144.04-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0862.5066.700.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0716.6719.68-0.00-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.320.0775.0074.340.160.03
Saint LouisA100.910.0760.0033.870.18-0.02
TCUB120.400.07100.0066.180.400.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.400.0725.0028.68-0.20-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0737.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0775.0071.730.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6766.340.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0750.0053.700.000.01
IPFWSum0.510.0757.1456.900.070.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.360.0720.0039.70-0.21-0.01
DePaulBE0.000.0760.0034.110.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0775.0078.480.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0740.0050.32-0.000.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0737.5049.83-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.33-0.00-0.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0770.0060.790.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0740.0050.07-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0766.6757.860.000.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0790.9171.890.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0038.180.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0770.0072.830.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.070.007.84-0.00-0.06
UtahP120.000.0777.7879.480.000.04
Kennesaw St.ASun0.320.0736.3633.67-0.09-0.02
AlbanyAE0.000.0733.3348.89-0.00-0.00
HartfordAE0.000.0750.0051.050.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0736.3664.92-0.000.02
NJITind0.400.0736.3640.98-0.11-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.400.070.0023.15-0.40-0.04
SeattleWAC0.000.0737.5046.50-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.000.0733.3354.74-0.000.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.0755.5654.360.000.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0733.3340.31-0.00-0.01
VermontAE0.000.0744.4457.85-0.000.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0787.5085.320.000.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.400.000.01
ButlerBE0.750.0680.0072.550.450.03
IndianaB100.320.0680.0057.630.190.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0655.5661.390.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0655.5648.240.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.000.0625.0037.13-0.00-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0614.2930.74-0.00-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0662.5054.970.000.01
ElonCAA0.360.0637.5047.87-0.09-0.00
Ohio St.B100.000.0690.0084.680.000.04
Penn St.B100.000.0690.9153.850.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0616.6727.56-0.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.0633.3362.92-0.000.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0633.3345.50-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0640.0036.29-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0087.140.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.0672.7365.930.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0618.1844.62-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0640.0050.78-0.000.00
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.03
BaylorB120.000.0490.0073.870.000.02
CampbellBSth0.510.0425.0044.59-0.26-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0442.8655.64-0.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0455.5638.600.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0442.8652.71-0.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0480.0064.110.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0450.0039.340.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0418.1846.16-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.510.0466.6748.410.17-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.510.0450.0041.830.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0074.000.000.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0466.6777.690.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.040.0016.85-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0450.0049.620.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.320.0327.2738.97-0.15-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0344.4444.78-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.320.0377.7865.390.180.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5649.500.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0342.8638.26-0.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0377.7868.780.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.400.0366.6742.100.13-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.320.030.0012.36-0.32-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0385.7172.940.000.02
Idaho St.BSky0.320.0314.2933.32-0.23-0.01
KansasB120.000.0388.8969.390.000.01
Kansas St.B120.400.0360.0037.220.08-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.400.0333.3344.71-0.13-0.00
MemphisAmer0.400.0355.5659.990.040.01
Montana St.BSky0.320.0322.2228.69-0.18-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0370.0058.600.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0344.4449.65-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0390.0067.260.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0337.5046.78-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.400.0314.2933.54-0.28-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0372.7367.180.000.01
BryantNEC0.000.0328.5747.24-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.000.0325.0034.77-0.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0390.0075.520.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0344.4445.64-0.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
USCP120.000.0360.0036.120.00-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0337.5031.95-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.360.0357.1461.670.050.01
BrownIvy0.360.0340.0033.79-0.07-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.360.0377.7851.350.200.00
HawaiiBW0.360.0366.6754.830.120.00
High PointBSth0.360.0362.5056.410.090.00
HoustonAmer0.360.0371.4348.860.15-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0390.9167.660.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0377.7864.730.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6743.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.360.0344.4456.91-0.040.00
PurdueB100.000.0372.7363.730.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0360.0035.070.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0057.570.000.00
Texas TechB120.000.0388.8955.910.000.00