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Through games of Feb 7, 2016.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:132.1
Current RPI:137
Expected SOS:101
Current SOS:99
Current Record:10-10
Expected Record:14-14
Current Conf Record:6-4
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:125



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-1069.90.53%
17-1184.54.12%
16-12100.514.26%
15-13119.126.85%
14-14139.028.07%
13-15157.818.19%
12-16174.66.55%
11-17192.21.31%
10-18206.10.11%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Jacksonville St. (304.4)OVCH89-83W100%0.0
11-23Weber St. (138.9)BSkyN63-60L0%0.0
11-24Western Kentucky (173.5)CUSAN60-88L0%0.0
11-25Milwaukee (167.0)HorzN78-84L0%0.0
11-30McNeese St. (328.4)SlndH74-73W100%0.0
12-3Grand Canyon (101.1)WACA75-72L0%0.0
12-12Texas Southern (193.4)SWACH79-71W100%0.0
12-18BYU (72.3)WCCA98-85L0%0.0
12-22Howard (290.3)MEACH72-52W100%0.0
12-29William & Mary (40.4)CAAA88-84L0%0.0
1-6Eastern Michigan (150.0)MACH80-99L0%0.0
1-9Bowling Green (192.9)MACA67-79W100%0.0
1-12Akron (35.0)MACH92-81W100%0.0
1-16Buffalo (86.0)MACA74-61L0%0.0
1-19Northern Illinois (136.7)MACA75-70L0%0.0
1-23Ohio (108.9)MACH72-49W100%0.0
1-26Miami OH (232.7)MACA51-68W100%0.0
1-30Bowling Green (192.9)MACH77-65W100%0.0
2-2Kent St. (113.5)MACH88-61W100%0.0
2-5Akron (35.0)MACA92-87L0%0.0
2-9Eastern Michigan (150.0)MACA0-041%-2.5
2-13Ball St. (155.9)MACH0-069%5.5
2-16Toledo (147.0)MACH0-054%1.2
2-20Western Michigan (203.7)MACA0-051%0.1
2-23Northern Illinois (136.7)MACH0-068%5.0
2-27Toledo (147.0)MACA0-031%-5.4
3-1Ball St. (155.9)MACA0-046%-1.2
3-4Western Michigan (203.7)MACH0-073%6.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.4126.3048.7250.56-0.680.30
Western MichiganMAC0.544.4133.3335.29-0.18-1.30
Northern IllinoisMAC2.914.4061.1158.210.650.72
Ball St.MAC0.534.3863.6460.430.140.91
ToledoMAC0.594.3859.0960.270.110.90
Eastern MichiganMAC3.034.3733.3338.40-1.01-1.01
AkronMAC5.304.3185.0082.183.712.78
Bowling GreenMAC5.304.3157.8950.530.840.05
Kent St.MAC2.922.6566.6761.490.970.61
BuffaloMAC2.922.6557.1457.460.420.39
OhioMAC2.982.6565.0061.550.890.61
Miami OHMAC3.102.6433.3331.53-1.03-0.98
HowardMEAC2.621.8540.0042.24-0.52-0.29
BYUWCC2.561.8265.2268.450.780.67
Texas SouthernSWAC2.561.8247.6255.97-0.120.22
William & MaryCAA2.561.8270.0068.681.020.68
Weber St.BSky2.551.8263.1668.130.670.66
Grand CanyonWAC2.501.7981.8280.441.591.09
Jacksonville St.OVC2.501.7926.0925.23-1.20-0.88
McNeese St.Slnd2.501.7918.7530.46-1.56-0.70
MilwaukeeHorz2.501.7957.1458.200.360.29
Western KentuckyCUSA2.501.7942.8644.38-0.36-0.20
Cleveland St.Horz0.410.3021.7422.74-0.23-0.17
DetroitHorz0.300.2847.6245.85-0.01-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.170.224.357.73-0.16-0.19
Wright St.Horz0.360.2256.5257.000.050.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.230.2130.4332.35-0.09-0.07
New OrleansSlnd0.190.1927.7834.50-0.09-0.06
Coppin St.MEAC0.240.1915.0022.36-0.17-0.10
OaklandHorz0.120.1968.0067.970.040.07
MarshallCUSA0.280.1850.0051.170.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.230.1831.8236.14-0.08-0.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.170.1850.0053.300.000.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.170.1838.8945.66-0.04-0.02
Green BayHorz0.170.1854.5556.000.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.180.1645.8346.66-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.110.1552.0050.250.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.170.1529.1733.15-0.07-0.05
LouisvilleACC0.180.1382.6177.740.120.07
HamptonMEAC0.110.1357.1459.470.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.135.007.23-0.11-0.11
James MadisonCAA0.060.1370.8369.500.020.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.1376.1973.400.030.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1370.5975.550.050.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.170.1333.3334.94-0.06-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.240.1347.3749.97-0.01-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.170.1256.5262.780.020.03
DrakeMVC0.240.1221.7423.66-0.13-0.07
BelmontOVC0.160.1266.6766.540.050.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.160.1216.6720.13-0.11-0.07
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.1271.4369.420.020.05
Northern KentuckyHorz0.110.1233.3335.09-0.04-0.04
San DiegoWCC0.000.1231.8229.14-0.00-0.05
ValparaisoHorz0.060.1281.8283.040.040.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1247.6252.67-0.010.01
LipscombASun0.230.1225.0029.27-0.11-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1243.4842.62-0.00-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1256.5257.280.010.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.1021.0527.82-0.03-0.05
IdahoBSky0.070.1054.5554.930.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1056.5256.310.020.01
FIUCUSA0.120.1040.9145.30-0.02-0.01
South DakotaSum0.120.1041.6741.24-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.180.1021.7423.32-0.10-0.05
Penn St.B100.120.1050.0046.740.00-0.01
VermontAE0.120.1054.1757.520.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.120.1031.5837.72-0.04-0.02
LibertyBSth0.060.0934.7836.50-0.02-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.120.0940.9149.27-0.02-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.0928.5726.96-0.08-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.170.0945.4549.70-0.02-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.160.0917.3920.66-0.11-0.05
UMBCAE0.180.0924.0026.41-0.09-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.180.0947.6252.07-0.010.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0950.0049.860.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.0913.6415.80-0.12-0.06
Tennessee St.OVC0.110.0966.6762.620.040.02
UABCUSA0.110.0982.6179.420.070.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.110.0936.8438.39-0.03-0.02
PortlandWCC0.110.0940.0038.50-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.110.0965.0066.790.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0970.8368.570.020.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.110.0968.1866.670.040.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.110.0930.0035.77-0.04-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0920.8323.63-0.07-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0940.9143.53-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0952.1751.960.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.160.0939.1338.57-0.03-0.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.0930.4331.18-0.04-0.03
IonaMAAC0.170.0960.8760.730.040.02
IUPUISum0.060.0940.0039.79-0.01-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0731.5831.96-0.00-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.070.0714.2917.92-0.05-0.05
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0718.7526.45-0.05-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0715.0027.26-0.05-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0728.5728.54-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0763.6460.940.030.01
DrexelCAA0.060.0713.6418.14-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.060.0752.1750.420.000.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0765.2264.220.020.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0783.3383.020.040.04
MissouriSEC0.070.0734.7830.36-0.02-0.03
North FloridaASun0.070.0765.2267.140.020.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0758.3354.160.010.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0765.2259.750.020.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0666.6767.690.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.069.5213.52-0.09-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.130.0645.0046.13-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0630.4335.11-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.110.0665.2268.610.030.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.0013.13-0.05-0.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0642.1145.73-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0647.6244.99-0.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.0677.2776.860.070.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0615.0015.35-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.050.0628.5732.71-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.0614.2915.46-0.08-0.04
DaytonA100.120.0686.3682.380.080.04
DenverSum0.120.0654.1751.800.010.00
HarvardIvy0.110.0635.0038.52-0.03-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.060.0640.9143.71-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.110.0645.0046.77-0.01-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0634.7840.92-0.02-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.120.0670.8370.840.050.03
DePaulBE0.000.0634.7834.45-0.00-0.02
DuquesneA100.110.0663.6456.430.030.01
MercerSC0.000.0672.7370.750.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0650.0052.350.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0656.5260.000.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.0622.7327.19-0.06-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.120.0671.4368.970.050.02
UTSACUSA0.110.0613.6413.62-0.08-0.04
XavierBE0.110.0691.3084.380.090.04
ArkansasSEC0.110.0652.1755.930.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0612.5012.85-0.00-0.04
CanisiusMAAC0.110.0644.0045.31-0.01-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.0623.8126.56-0.06-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.050.0678.2676.810.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0615.7920.03-0.04-0.04
LongwoodBSth0.000.0622.7324.97-0.00-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.110.0660.8763.000.020.02
PacificWCC0.100.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.110.069.0917.09-0.09-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.0685.7185.390.070.04
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0654.5550.110.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0625.0022.76-0.00-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.0642.8650.41-0.020.00
VillanovaBE0.110.0686.9686.370.080.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.070.0431.5831.80-0.03-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0452.6350.220.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.070.0456.2556.100.010.00
IndianaB100.070.0479.1774.020.040.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0457.8961.750.010.01
LSUSEC0.070.0465.2260.270.020.01
OklahomaB120.070.0486.3682.100.050.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0445.0049.39-0.01-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0475.0071.500.040.02
Texas St.SB0.070.0438.8938.51-0.02-0.01
UCLAP120.070.0456.5253.240.010.00
High PointBSth0.060.0355.0057.480.010.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0350.0049.090.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.060.0382.6178.050.040.02
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0366.6765.210.020.01
CornellIvy0.060.0342.1140.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0352.3854.010.000.00
HawaiiBW0.060.0384.2181.670.040.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0369.5766.510.020.01
MassachusettsA100.060.0340.9139.36-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0357.8962.290.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0320.0026.74-0.04-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0325.0033.21-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.060.0379.1776.550.030.02
RadfordBSth0.060.0350.0051.270.000.00
RutgersB100.060.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0372.7372.030.020.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0335.0035.98-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0359.0953.030.010.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0337.5040.52-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.3685.030.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.060.0369.5764.890.020.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0371.4368.710.000.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0326.0927.82-0.03-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.060.0333.3332.99-0.02-0.01
Notre DameACC0.060.0369.5765.850.020.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0328.5729.72-0.02-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0339.1341.32-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0331.5831.98-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.060.0380.9582.700.040.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.15-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0365.2261.450.020.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0345.8341.65-0.00-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0352.1751.940.000.00
Virginia TechACC0.050.0354.1749.270.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0365.0063.440.020.01
WisconsinB100.060.0360.8755.840.010.00
BaylorB120.060.0372.7366.500.030.01
BinghamtonAE0.060.0321.7424.67-0.03-0.02
ClemsonACC0.060.0360.8760.240.010.01
ColoradoP120.050.0369.5765.330.020.01
CreightonBE0.060.0362.5059.780.010.01
DukeACC0.060.0373.9170.040.030.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0373.9170.060.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0345.4551.35-0.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0322.7324.73-0.03-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0340.9140.65-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.060.0354.1755.250.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0354.1755.080.000.00
PittsburghACC0.060.0376.1968.220.030.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.060.0382.6178.890.040.02
SMUAmer0.060.0390.9186.130.050.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0372.0070.510.030.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0350.0049.440.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.060.0366.6762.560.020.01
UCFAmer0.060.0352.3845.700.00-0.00
UtahP120.050.0369.5767.480.020.01
VCUA100.060.0373.9173.900.030.01
Washington St.P120.060.0336.3632.00-0.02-0.01