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Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:70.9
Current RPI:73
Expected SOS:197
Current SOS:203
Current Record:19-6
Expected Record:20-6
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Probability of Auto Bid:26.44%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC Record:7-1
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:349



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-667.456.39%
19-775.443.61%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (294.5)HorzH75-63W100%0.0
11-21Maine (340.7)AEH76-48W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.1)SWACH75-43W100%0.0
11-29Grand Canyon (278.6)WACH79-77W100%0.0
12-2Bradley (294.1)MVCA84-73L0%0.0
12-6SIU Edwardsville (282.0)OVCH94-61W100%0.0
12-17Northwestern (113.4)B10A67-80W100%0.0
12-22McNeese St. (278.6)SlndA58-87W100%0.0
1-6Toledo (74.8)MACA62-65W100%0.0
1-10Ball St. (276.5)MACA83-65L0%0.0
1-14Miami OH (220.1)MACH105-77W100%0.0
1-17Akron (137.1)MACA82-76L0%0.0
1-21Buffalo (35.4)MACH84-73W100%0.0
1-24Eastern Michigan (164.2)MACH65-51W100%0.0
1-27Kent St. (91.4)MACA63-53L0%0.0
1-31Ohio (237.6)MACH74-69W100%0.0
2-4Bowling Green (90.8)MACH74-76L0%0.0
2-7Western Michigan (116.9)MACH70-65W100%0.0
2-10Ohio (237.6)MACA57-68W100%0.0
2-14Buffalo (35.4)MACA74-75W100%0.0
2-18Northern Illinois (193.7)MACH68-66W100%0.0
2-21Ball St. (276.5)MACH83-60W100%0.0
2-24Eastern Michigan (164.2)MACA56-72W100%0.0
2-28Northern Illinois (193.7)MACA73-55L0%0.0
3-3Toledo (74.8)MACH85-77W100%0.0
3-6Western Michigan (116.9)MACA0-056%1.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.3326.3378.6478.4615.0814.99
Western MichiganMAC3.004.7859.2659.260.560.88
Eastern MichiganMAC4.864.7758.3357.880.810.75
ToledoMAC4.844.7667.8667.341.731.65
Northern IllinoisMAC4.824.7444.0044.23-0.58-0.55
Ball St.MAC4.794.7120.0021.16-2.87-2.72
BuffaloMAC4.794.6874.0774.102.302.25
OhioMAC4.824.6734.6235.32-1.48-1.37
Miami OHMAC2.932.8942.8642.98-0.42-0.41
Kent St.MAC2.962.8864.2964.200.850.82
AkronMAC2.922.8857.1456.490.420.37
Bowling GreenMAC2.892.8569.2367.601.111.00
Youngstown St.Horz2.112.0328.5728.57-0.90-0.87
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.112.0236.6737.48-0.56-0.51
NorthwesternB102.072.0251.7250.390.070.02
MaineAE2.071.9910.7110.71-1.63-1.56
Grand CanyonWAC2.071.9951.8552.130.080.08
McNeese St.Slnd2.071.9939.1341.43-0.45-0.34
BradleyMVC2.001.9220.6920.69-1.17-1.13
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC2.001.9241.6741.67-0.33-0.32
OaklandHorz0.250.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.230.2151.8551.850.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.220.2124.1424.14-0.11-0.11
Chicago St.WAC0.220.2018.5217.91-0.14-0.13
ValparaisoHorz0.210.2082.1482.140.130.13
DetroitHorz0.210.2043.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.1923.3323.33-0.11-0.10
Robert MorrisNEC0.200.1953.3353.330.010.01
DrakeMVC0.140.1627.5927.59-0.06-0.07
Michigan St.B100.180.1665.5265.430.050.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.170.1653.5753.570.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1662.0762.070.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.140.1628.0029.86-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.140.1620.0020.58-0.08-0.09
DaytonA100.150.1479.3178.650.090.08
Missouri St.MVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.150.1340.0039.59-0.03-0.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.140.1333.3333.33-0.05-0.04
MichiganB100.140.1346.4347.81-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.140.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.140.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
New HampshireAE0.100.1359.2659.260.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.1348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.140.1339.2940.08-0.03-0.03
IowaB100.110.1366.6767.370.040.05
BinghamtonAE0.140.1317.2417.24-0.09-0.09
St. BonaventureA100.140.1355.5656.810.020.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.140.1355.5655.060.020.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.130.000.75-0.14-0.13
Alcorn St.SWAC0.140.1315.3814.77-0.09-0.09
Northern KentuckyASun0.130.1339.2939.29-0.03-0.03
WisconsinB100.140.1389.6687.990.110.10
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.110.1064.2964.290.030.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.110.1042.8642.86-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.110.1025.0025.00-0.06-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.110.1022.2222.87-0.06-0.06
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1028.5729.92-0.05-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.110.1046.1547.13-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.1046.1544.69-0.01-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1026.9225.64-0.05-0.05
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.110.1024.0024.52-0.06-0.05
UMBCAE0.100.1013.7913.79-0.07-0.07
NebraskaB100.100.1046.4344.97-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
KentuckySEC0.100.10100.0099.900.100.10
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1037.0437.86-0.03-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1090.0090.000.080.08
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.040.087.417.66-0.04-0.07
LamarSlnd0.080.0844.0043.04-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.080.0885.7185.710.060.05
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0827.2727.96-0.04-0.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.080.0821.7424.09-0.05-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0856.5255.710.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0828.5730.86-0.04-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.080.0759.0960.700.010.02
IPFWSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Saint LouisA100.070.0735.7134.54-0.02-0.02
TCUB120.070.0758.6257.110.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.070.0753.8556.020.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.070.0731.8231.52-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.070.0742.8642.76-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.070.0744.0044.87-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Notre DameACC0.070.0782.7681.290.050.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0775.0075.370.040.03
UtahP120.070.0777.7878.820.040.04
AlbanyAE0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0737.0437.16-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0767.8667.860.030.02
George WashingtonA100.070.0762.0762.660.020.02
Green BayHorz0.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
HartfordAE0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.040.0742.8645.02-0.01-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0762.9664.240.020.02
NJITind0.070.0754.1754.160.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.040.0764.5264.520.010.02
PacificWCC0.040.0733.3333.33-0.01-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.040.070.000.16-0.04-0.07
SeattleWAC0.040.0748.0047.71-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.070.0739.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0730.7731.10-0.03-0.03
VermontAE0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ButlerBE0.070.0670.0069.370.030.02
IndianaB100.070.0663.3362.760.020.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0642.8642.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0655.1755.170.010.01
CornellIvy0.070.0644.4444.54-0.01-0.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0625.0024.22-0.03-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0666.6766.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0667.8667.860.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0689.6689.660.050.05
ElonCAA0.070.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0672.4172.030.030.03
Penn St.B100.070.0651.7249.590.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.070.0630.7731.72-0.03-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0638.4639.08-0.02-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0656.6756.670.010.01
DukeACC0.070.0689.6688.420.050.05
IllinoisB100.070.0662.0761.980.020.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.070.0653.5754.710.000.01
OregonP120.070.0672.4171.810.030.03
VCUA100.070.0672.4172.030.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0660.8761.600.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.4836.59-0.02-0.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0642.8645.16-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.060.0644.4443.51-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0658.6260.310.010.01
BaylorB120.040.0472.4173.240.020.02
CampbellBSth0.040.0425.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.040.0462.9662.960.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.040.0434.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0453.8555.440.000.00
LSUSEC0.040.0472.4171.340.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.040.0439.2939.32-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.040.0444.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.040.0450.0050.000.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.040.0450.0049.000.00-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.040.0476.0074.340.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.040.0484.6284.490.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.040.0410.3410.34-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.040.0435.7135.71-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.040.0325.0026.97-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0361.5458.940.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0337.9338.69-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.040.033.574.54-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.040.0375.0075.310.020.02
Idaho St.BSky0.040.0315.3816.35-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.040.0321.4321.45-0.02-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.040.0348.2848.80-0.00-0.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0357.1455.540.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0368.9768.960.010.01
WagnerNEC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
KansasB120.030.0380.0078.510.020.02
Kansas St.B120.030.0350.0048.800.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0314.8114.81-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0333.3331.66-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0358.6256.800.010.00
Miami FLACC0.030.0362.0761.970.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0350.0050.780.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.34-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0357.6958.370.010.01
USCP120.030.0337.9337.13-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.8669.240.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.10-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0324.0024.00-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.030.0370.3768.760.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0340.7438.91-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.030.0383.3382.770.020.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0357.1456.740.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0365.5264.170.010.01
RutgersB100.030.0333.3332.69-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0342.3142.08-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.7160.860.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0335.7136.33-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.030.0364.2961.960.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0343.3342.03-0.00-0.00