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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:175.6
Current RPI:132
Expected SOS:187
Current SOS:282
Current Record:3-0
Expected Record:14-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:3-0
Expected OOC Record:6-2
Expected OOC RPI:198
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-554.70.06%
20-658.60.37%
19-773.81.25%
18-890.93.36%
17-9109.46.50%
16-10128.710.78%
15-11150.115.90%
14-12170.817.76%
13-13193.516.35%
12-14214.213.13%
11-15236.38.05%
10-16259.24.18%
9-17278.51.66%
8-18295.40.48%
7-19312.50.14%
6-20327.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-18Youngstown St. (260.4)HorzH75-63W100%0.0
11-21Maine (337.8)AEH76-48W100%0.0
11-23Arkansas Pine Bluff (324.2)SWACH75-43W100%0.0
11-29Grand Canyon (254.3)WACH0-072%7.0
12-2Bradley (281.1)MVCA0-062%3.8
12-6SIU Edwardsville (311.4)OVCH0-083%11.4
12-17Northwestern (172.6)B10A0-035%-4.5
12-22McNeese St. (262.5)SlndA0-055%1.5
1-6Toledo (67.7)MACA0-019%-10.6
1-10Ball St. (171.2)MACA0-038%-3.8
1-14Miami OH (245.7)MACH0-077%9.0
1-17Akron (76.2)MACA0-020%-10.3
1-21Buffalo (80.3)MACH0-048%-0.5
1-24Eastern Michigan (157.0)MACH0-060%3.1
1-27Kent St. (91.3)MACA0-022%-9.4
1-31Ohio (114.5)MACH0-051%0.2
2-4Bowling Green (108.7)MACH0-051%0.3
2-7Western Michigan (119.8)MACH0-053%0.8
2-10Ohio (114.5)MACA0-028%-7.0
2-14Buffalo (80.3)MACA0-026%-7.7
2-18Northern Illinois (218.5)MACH0-070%6.2
2-21Ball St. (171.2)MACH0-061%3.4
2-24Eastern Michigan (157.0)MACA0-037%-4.0
2-28Northern Illinois (218.5)MACA0-047%-1.0
3-3Toledo (67.7)MACH0-039%-3.5
3-6Western Michigan (119.8)MACA0-030%-6.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC30.4226.37100.0051.8930.421.00
Eastern MichiganMAC1.674.80100.0050.741.670.07
Western MichiganMAC0.004.7966.6752.750.000.26
ToledoMAC0.004.7850.0064.950.001.43
Northern IllinoisMAC0.004.77100.0043.490.00-0.62
Ball St.MAC0.004.7433.3345.97-0.00-0.38
BuffaloMAC0.004.7166.6759.240.000.87
OhioMAC0.004.6950.0055.230.000.49
Miami OHMAC0.002.9166.6732.830.00-1.00
AkronMAC0.002.9175.0069.220.001.12
Kent St.MAC1.672.9175.0065.690.830.91
Bowling GreenMAC0.002.87100.0059.070.000.52
NorthwesternB100.002.03100.0040.660.00-0.38
Youngstown St.Horz16.672.0350.0039.780.00-0.41
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC16.672.0325.0030.24-8.33-0.80
MaineAE16.671.990.0018.34-16.67-1.26
Grand CanyonWAC0.001.9950.0051.700.000.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.001.990.0045.66-0.00-0.17
BradleyMVC0.001.9233.3322.41-0.00-1.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.001.920.0033.61-0.00-0.63
OaklandHorz0.000.280.0029.78-0.00-0.11
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.210.0037.06-0.00-0.06
LongwoodBSth1.670.2125.0020.27-0.83-0.12
Chicago St.WAC0.000.200.0022.57-0.00-0.11
ValparaisoHorz3.750.2075.0055.491.880.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2020.0034.54-0.00-0.06
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.2025.0042.83-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.180.0025.30-0.00-0.09
EvansvilleMVC0.000.17100.0063.550.000.05
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1733.3346.01-0.00-0.01
Michigan St.B100.000.1775.0073.300.000.08
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.160.0016.93-0.00-0.11
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1440.0050.60-0.000.00
New HampshireAE0.000.140.0041.46-0.00-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1450.0052.390.000.01
DaytonA100.000.1475.0072.970.000.06
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1475.0047.380.00-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.1466.6757.340.000.02
MichiganB100.000.14100.0070.020.000.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.1466.6753.410.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.1325.0046.39-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.130.0031.92-0.00-0.05
IowaB100.000.1360.0064.030.000.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.1375.0056.390.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.130.0020.03-0.00-0.08
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.1333.3339.78-0.00-0.03
BinghamtonAE0.000.130.0029.07-0.00-0.05
WisconsinB100.000.13100.0084.620.000.09
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1133.3343.01-0.00-0.02
BelmontOVC0.000.1175.0071.990.000.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.1125.0035.54-0.00-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC1.670.110.0028.12-1.67-0.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.100.0029.05-0.00-0.04
DetroitHorz0.000.1050.0054.870.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0066.020.000.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1025.0039.30-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.100.0034.81-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.100.0039.25-0.00-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0029.28-0.00-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.10100.0031.710.00-0.04
UMBCAE0.000.100.0038.08-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.670.1020.0035.87-1.00-0.03
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0087.980.000.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.100.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.080.0033.26-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.080.0021.40-0.00-0.04
LamarSlnd0.000.080.0034.13-0.00-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.000.0833.3368.63-0.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.080.0034.80-0.00-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.080.0029.60-0.00-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.080.0053.97-0.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.080.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0850.0032.210.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0052.91-0.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.07100.0075.310.000.04
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3332.25-0.00-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.000.0775.0050.400.000.00
TCUB120.000.07100.0057.580.000.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0750.0063.110.000.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.070.0030.13-0.00-0.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.07100.0051.650.000.00
IPFWSum0.000.0766.6760.760.000.02
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0750.0026.270.00-0.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.07100.0074.040.000.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0766.6774.460.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0766.6747.180.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.070.0024.93-0.00-0.04
DePaulBE0.000.07100.0036.280.00-0.02
Green BayHorz0.000.0750.0068.360.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.0750.0046.080.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0034.020.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.000.0775.0047.460.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.07100.0071.240.000.03
Notre DameACC0.000.0780.0072.950.000.03
San Diego St.MWC0.000.07100.0084.910.000.05
UtahP120.000.0766.6772.280.000.03
Wichita St.MVC0.000.07100.0084.110.000.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0720.0025.79-0.00-0.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.070.0022.66-0.00-0.04
AlbanyAE0.000.0733.3364.13-0.000.02
HartfordAE0.000.0775.0040.470.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0066.65-0.000.02
NJITind2.080.0720.0027.91-1.25-0.03
SeattleWAC0.000.0725.0044.61-0.00-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0733.3365.20-0.000.02
UMass LowellAE0.000.0760.0041.560.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6749.970.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0733.3358.52-0.000.01
ButlerBE2.080.07100.0059.942.080.01
ElonCAA0.000.0733.3341.47-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0780.0057.960.000.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0043.250.00-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.07100.0073.810.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0019.76-0.00-0.04
Arkansas St.SB0.000.060.0040.87-0.00-0.01
BucknellPat0.000.0620.0035.82-0.00-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0666.6756.820.000.01
CornellIvy0.000.0633.3337.47-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0620.0035.62-0.00-0.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.500.000.05
IllinoisB100.000.06100.0065.880.000.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3324.20-0.00-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0625.0057.73-0.000.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0068.720.000.02
Penn St.B100.000.0680.0043.930.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0633.3350.01-0.000.00
VCUA100.000.0675.0067.590.000.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.060.0064.44-0.000.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0625.0040.65-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0039.51-0.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0038.56-0.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.04100.0070.100.000.02
CampbellBSth0.000.040.0031.43-0.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.04100.0060.950.000.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.040.0033.20-0.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.040.0039.88-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.0460.0056.290.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.04100.0047.400.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0420.0053.69-0.000.00
PortlandWCC0.000.04100.0051.040.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.04100.0049.160.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0466.6757.060.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0450.0064.210.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.040.0065.66-0.000.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.040.0027.43-0.00-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0466.6745.370.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0375.0057.780.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0066.640.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.030.0036.85-0.00-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.000.0366.6751.260.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3367.83-0.000.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3343.21-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6750.930.000.00
ArmyPat0.000.03100.0066.400.000.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0340.0038.53-0.00-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0021.49-0.00-0.02
HarvardIvy0.000.0350.0067.730.000.01
Idaho St.BSky0.000.030.0028.35-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0366.6758.820.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3335.09-0.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.030.0045.75-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.030.0021.27-0.00-0.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0360.0056.230.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0366.6766.090.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0065.090.000.01
WagnerNEC0.000.030.0042.28-0.00-0.01
YaleIvy0.000.0375.0069.180.000.01
BrownIvy0.000.0320.0037.46-0.00-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0350.0054.140.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.03100.0051.910.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
MarylandB100.000.03100.0066.670.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0078.600.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0045.420.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.000.0366.6762.260.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6752.810.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.030.0044.98-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0062.270.000.01
RutgersB100.000.0366.6735.400.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0340.0050.01-0.000.00
USCP120.000.0340.0028.54-0.00-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.000.0333.3333.50-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0350.0045.710.00-0.00
HawaiiBW1.670.0360.0050.930.330.00
High PointBSth1.670.0375.0055.840.830.00
HoustonAmer0.000.03100.0063.820.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0069.760.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0366.6745.370.00-0.00