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Through games of Jan 16, 2017.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:180.0
Current RPI:149
Expected SOS:227
Current SOS:217
Current Record:9-6
Expected Record:16-13
Current Conf Record:1-3
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC Record:8-3
Expected OOC RPI:133
Expected OOC SOS:316



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-786.00.01%
21-890.60.20%
20-9105.01.20%
19-10121.33.85%
18-11138.39.42%
17-12156.016.80%
16-13174.422.49%
15-14192.621.33%
14-15210.814.28%
13-16226.97.27%
12-17243.82.53%
11-18259.40.55%
10-19273.70.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tennessee Tech (299.2)OVCA74-86W100%0.0
11-21Pepperdine (249.4)WCCN77-88W100%0.0
11-22St. Bonaventure (94.6)A10N102-71L0%0.0
11-23Little Rock (206.9)SBN79-91L0%0.0
11-26Green Bay (147.0)HorzA77-89W100%0.0
11-29William & Mary (148.4)CAAH91-81W100%0.0
12-3Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.2)SWACH82-59W100%0.0
12-6Green Bay (147.0)HorzH107-97W100%0.0
12-10Illinois (75.6)B10A92-73L0%0.0
12-21Montana St. (289.3)BSkyA103-106W100%0.0
12-30Chicago St. (284.3)WACH90-82W100%0.0
1-3Eastern Michigan (86.4)MACA85-63L0%0.0
1-7Northern Illinois (181.2)MACA87-83L0%0.0
1-10Akron (59.2)MACH85-89L0%0.0
1-13Toledo (137.9)MACH96-88W100%0.0
1-17Ball St. (210.2)MACA0-037%-3.8
1-21Miami OH (281.5)MACH0-076%7.9
1-24Bowling Green (249.9)MACH0-070%6.0
1-28Kent St. (196.8)MACA0-030%-5.8
1-31Buffalo (176.2)MACA0-036%-4.0
2-4Western Michigan (206.7)MACH0-063%3.7
2-7Ohio (90.5)MACA0-018%-10.2
2-11Miami OH (281.5)MACA0-056%1.7
2-14Buffalo (176.2)MACH0-058%2.3
2-18Ball St. (210.2)MACH0-059%2.5
2-21Northern Illinois (181.2)MACH0-055%1.4
2-25Toledo (137.9)MACA0-029%-6.3
2-28Eastern Michigan (86.4)MACH0-040%-2.8
3-3Western Michigan (206.7)MACA0-041%-2.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.7726.3561.1954.535.992.39
ToledoMAC3.544.2953.3352.780.240.24
Ball St.MAC0.004.2662.5054.300.000.37
Northern IllinoisMAC3.334.2553.8551.930.260.16
Western MichiganMAC0.214.2233.3336.58-0.07-1.13
Eastern MichiganMAC3.334.2250.0056.820.000.57
Miami OHMAC0.424.1940.0034.55-0.08-1.30
BuffaloMAC0.334.1933.3340.53-0.11-0.79
Green BayHorz6.773.5364.2959.061.930.64
Bowling GreenMAC0.562.6137.5036.48-0.14-0.71
OhioMAC0.222.5971.4369.210.090.99
AkronMAC3.332.5680.0072.632.001.16
Kent St.MAC0.122.5650.0051.160.000.06
St. BonaventureA103.541.8462.5060.580.880.39
Tennessee TechOVC3.331.8129.4130.52-1.37-0.71
Little RockSB3.631.8153.3349.540.24-0.02
PepperdineWCC3.541.7825.0022.56-1.77-0.98
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC3.441.7518.7525.48-2.15-0.86
Chicago St.WAC3.331.7217.6519.09-2.16-1.07
IllinoisB103.331.7262.5052.780.830.10
Montana St.BSky3.331.7231.2540.30-1.25-0.33
William & MaryCAA3.331.7246.1548.98-0.26-0.04
DetroitHorz0.330.3017.6524.27-0.21-0.16
Wright St.Horz0.310.2758.8254.990.060.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.210.2427.7834.27-0.09-0.08
OaklandHorz0.090.2470.5972.850.040.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.210.2250.0049.550.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.320.2188.2484.300.250.15
ValparaisoHorz0.300.2177.7877.110.170.11
Northern KentuckyHorz0.310.2158.8257.870.050.03
IUPUISum0.230.2135.2942.41-0.07-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.420.2133.3330.18-0.14-0.08
Alabama A&MSWAC0.280.216.2511.84-0.25-0.16
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.1823.5328.53-0.16-0.08
Indiana St.MVC0.240.1835.2937.74-0.07-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1627.7830.30-0.04-0.06
UMKCWAC0.210.1538.8940.01-0.05-0.03
IdahoBSky0.320.1535.7144.07-0.09-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.200.1553.8564.140.020.04
Saint LouisA100.090.1529.4125.22-0.04-0.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1522.2225.46-0.06-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1525.0029.61-0.00-0.06
ElonCAA0.240.1347.0649.68-0.01-0.00
DelawareCAA0.000.1329.4127.56-0.00-0.06
PittsburghACC0.130.1266.6753.190.040.01
WisconsinB100.300.1282.3581.030.190.08
PacificWCC0.310.1238.8934.94-0.07-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.300.1247.0655.40-0.020.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.210.1222.2230.94-0.12-0.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.300.1262.5062.550.080.03
SouthernSWAC0.190.1237.5051.06-0.050.00
MarshallCUSA0.210.1255.5660.010.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1233.3333.23-0.00-0.04
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1226.3227.77-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.200.1257.8957.120.030.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1118.7528.06-0.06-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.210.1182.3582.770.130.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1150.0047.550.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.220.1044.4445.47-0.02-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.120.1066.6763.320.040.03
Long Beach St.BW0.230.0922.2236.06-0.13-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.230.0950.0051.420.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.220.0920.0029.47-0.13-0.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.300.0923.5324.37-0.16-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.100.0961.1162.970.020.02
MinnesotaB100.120.0978.9570.150.070.04
SeattleWAC0.190.0940.0037.09-0.04-0.02
TroySB0.090.0947.0648.10-0.01-0.00
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0926.6727.57-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0927.7834.95-0.13-0.03
BelmontOVC0.100.0973.3373.100.050.04
MontanaBSky0.100.0952.6360.450.010.02
Portland St.BSky0.100.0953.8554.520.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0923.5328.53-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.090.0938.8934.48-0.02-0.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0978.9569.120.050.03
BYUWCC0.100.0968.4268.160.040.03
CanisiusMAAC0.100.0963.1663.750.030.02
CreightonBE0.100.0994.4484.740.090.06
GonzagaWCC0.200.09100.0096.910.200.08
MissouriSEC0.100.0931.2526.61-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.000.0912.5019.03-0.00-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.100.0947.0644.16-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.0911.1123.11-0.08-0.05
College of CharlestonCAA0.120.0777.7870.850.070.03
TowsonCAA0.000.0750.0052.220.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.130.0643.7550.72-0.020.00
SMUAmer0.130.0678.9576.690.070.03
SyracuseACC0.130.0657.8952.840.020.00
VermontAE0.130.0673.6877.320.060.03
Rhode IslandA100.120.0664.7167.000.040.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0653.3361.470.000.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.0640.0046.16-0.02-0.00
FIUCUSA0.120.0612.5021.96-0.09-0.03
Kansas St.B120.210.0676.4759.430.110.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0688.2484.380.070.04
South FloridaAmer0.120.0637.5029.45-0.03-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.090.0633.3333.47-0.03-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0640.0044.63-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.090.0664.7147.180.03-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0660.0061.150.020.01
Appalachian St.SB0.100.0628.5731.64-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0664.7165.930.030.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0666.6766.780.000.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.100.0643.7543.63-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.100.0656.2559.170.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.100.066.6718.58-0.08-0.04
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0655.5653.980.010.00
LipscombASun0.190.0641.1847.61-0.03-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.0625.0028.48-0.05-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.0650.0048.000.00-0.00
MaineAE0.000.0621.0521.86-0.00-0.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0631.2539.84-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0683.3378.320.000.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0617.6521.39-0.07-0.03
PortlandWCC0.100.0650.0042.270.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0631.5839.33-0.00-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0621.4326.05-0.00-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0688.2487.480.000.04
San DiegoWCC0.100.0647.0640.37-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0661.1158.650.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.0650.0046.720.00-0.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.0643.7541.36-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0662.5065.700.000.02
UCLAP120.000.0694.7489.330.000.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.0618.7523.85-0.00-0.03
VillanovaBE0.000.0694.7489.170.000.05
WashingtonP120.000.0647.0642.27-0.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.0672.2267.490.000.02
Fort WayneSum0.000.0668.7569.250.000.02
UCFAmer0.000.0676.4766.360.000.02
FloridaSEC0.200.0682.3576.960.130.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.100.0662.5060.080.030.01
Michigan St.B100.090.0663.1657.750.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.0655.5655.680.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0662.5057.020.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.0621.4336.57-0.06-0.02
DaytonA100.100.0675.0076.040.050.03
DuquesneA100.000.0650.0042.110.00-0.01
George MasonA100.100.0664.7156.530.030.01
George WashingtonA100.100.0650.0047.550.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.0657.8950.960.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0631.2545.28-0.00-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.000.0626.6725.63-0.00-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0664.7161.460.030.01
MarylandB100.200.0688.2471.840.150.03
MassachusettsA100.100.0661.1159.210.020.01
MichiganB100.100.0666.6758.160.030.01
North FloridaASun0.000.0618.7530.20-0.00-0.02
Penn St.B100.000.0661.1150.470.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0617.6535.25-0.00-0.02
SienaMAAC0.200.0638.8945.72-0.04-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.0652.9455.240.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0650.0066.220.000.02
VCUA100.100.0677.7873.920.050.03
DrexelCAA0.000.0335.2935.38-0.00-0.01
DukeACC0.120.0377.7873.720.070.02
HamptonMEAC0.120.0326.6740.15-0.06-0.01
LibertyBSth0.120.0343.7549.93-0.01-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.120.0383.3377.690.080.02
Old DominionCUSA0.120.0361.1162.130.030.01
PresbyterianBSth0.120.0313.3314.86-0.09-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.0325.0031.95-0.06-0.01
BryantNEC0.000.0322.2235.43-0.00-0.01
DePaulBE0.090.0342.1130.46-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0355.5660.550.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.090.0361.1157.840.020.00
Notre DameACC0.090.0388.8977.800.070.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0347.3745.21-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.0317.6529.59-0.06-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0343.7548.36-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.090.0350.0054.850.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0353.3355.860.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.100.0346.1554.04-0.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.100.0333.3342.19-0.03-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0317.6527.61-0.07-0.01
RiceCUSA0.100.0362.5066.050.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0350.0050.990.000.00
Texas St.SB0.000.0353.3345.920.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.100.0356.2551.250.010.00
USCP120.100.0384.2172.840.070.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0368.7570.370.000.01
UtahP120.100.0366.6764.720.030.01
Washington St.P120.100.0350.0035.490.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.100.0343.7537.53-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.100.0323.5329.81-0.06-0.01
ArmyPat0.100.0341.1845.55-0.02-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0388.2486.430.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.0356.2555.710.000.00
DenverSum0.100.0361.1157.830.020.00
Florida St.ACC0.100.0388.8978.090.080.02
FordhamA100.100.0335.2931.83-0.03-0.01
HawaiiBW0.100.0340.0044.09-0.02-0.00
IndianaB100.100.0366.6763.930.030.01
La SalleA100.000.0366.6762.150.000.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.0312.5033.74-0.08-0.01
MercerSC0.100.0335.2944.06-0.03-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0337.5044.66-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0350.0043.370.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.100.0355.5654.690.010.00
NJITASun0.000.0341.1845.41-0.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0318.7535.75-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.0366.6750.950.030.00
Ohio St.B100.100.0361.1156.560.020.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.0356.2553.900.010.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0317.6515.00-0.00-0.02
PurdueB100.000.0377.7876.220.000.02
RadfordBSth0.100.0337.5043.12-0.03-0.00
RichmondA100.100.0364.7158.460.030.00
RutgersB100.000.0355.5643.070.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0350.0040.930.00-0.01
St. Francis PANEC0.100.0331.2541.99-0.04-0.00
TexasB120.000.0341.1835.95-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.100.0358.8263.660.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.100.0350.0058.430.000.00
West VirginiaB120.100.0388.2484.630.070.02
WinthropBSth0.100.0373.3373.890.050.01
WoffordSC0.000.0326.6739.99-0.00-0.01