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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Central Michigan

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:156.0
Current RPI:156
Expected SOS:115
Current SOS:115
Current Record:14-15
Expected Record:14-15
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:9-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-2
Current OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC Record:4-6
Expected OOC RPI:220
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-15156.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Central Michigan.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Jacksonville St. (309.0)OVCH89-83W100%0.0
11-23Weber St. (108.0)BSkyN63-60L0%0.0
11-24Western Kentucky (153.0)CUSAN60-88L0%0.0
11-25Milwaukee (173.0)HorzN78-84L0%0.0
11-30McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH74-73W100%0.0
12-3Grand Canyon (91.0)WACA75-72L0%0.0
12-12Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH79-71W100%0.0
12-18BYU (76.0)WCCA98-85L0%0.0
12-22Howard (328.0)MEACH72-52W100%0.0
12-29William & Mary (67.0)CAAA88-84L0%0.0
1-6Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACH80-99L0%0.0
1-9Bowling Green (200.0)MACA67-79W100%0.0
1-12Akron (34.0)MACH92-81W100%0.0
1-16Buffalo (90.0)MACA74-61L0%0.0
1-19Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA75-70L0%0.0
1-23Ohio (81.0)MACH72-49W100%0.0
1-26Miami OH (195.0)MACA51-68W100%0.0
1-30Bowling Green (200.0)MACH77-65W100%0.0
2-2Kent St. (124.0)MACH88-61W100%0.0
2-5Akron (34.0)MACA92-87L0%0.0
2-9Eastern Michigan (113.0)MACA71-56L0%0.0
2-13Ball St. (179.0)MACH63-75L0%0.0
2-16Toledo (182.0)MACH77-69W100%0.0
2-20Western Michigan (202.0)MACA92-85L0%0.0
2-23Northern Illinois (136.0)MACH76-64W100%0.0
2-27Toledo (182.0)MACA74-76W100%0.0
3-1Ball St. (179.0)MACA57-65W100%0.0
3-4Western Michigan (202.0)MACH82-91L0%0.0
3-10Bowling Green (200.0)MACN59-62L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Central Michigan's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Central Michigan's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Central Michigan.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Central MichiganMAC26.3226.3247.1547.15-1.50-1.50
Bowling GreenMAC5.925.9244.8344.83-0.61-0.61
AkronMAC4.344.3477.4277.422.382.38
Western MichiganMAC4.324.3232.1432.14-1.54-1.54
Northern IllinoisMAC4.314.3159.2659.260.800.80
Eastern MichiganMAC4.314.3144.4444.44-0.48-0.48
ToledoMAC4.274.2755.1755.170.440.44
Ball St.MAC4.244.2458.6258.620.730.73
BuffaloMAC2.672.6756.2556.250.330.33
OhioMAC2.642.6466.6766.670.880.88
Kent St.MAC2.642.6460.0060.000.530.53
Miami OHMAC2.632.6338.7138.71-0.59-0.59
HowardMEAC1.781.7834.4834.48-0.55-0.55
Texas SouthernSWAC1.751.7558.0658.060.280.28
William & MaryCAA1.751.7560.7160.710.380.38
BYUWCC1.751.7567.7467.740.620.62
Weber St.BSky1.751.7573.3373.330.820.82
Grand CanyonWAC1.721.7278.5778.570.990.99
Jacksonville St.OVC1.721.7221.4321.43-0.99-0.99
McNeese St.Slnd1.721.7228.0028.00-0.76-0.76
MilwaukeeHorz1.721.7256.6756.670.230.23
Western KentuckyCUSA1.721.7248.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.300.3023.3323.33-0.16-0.16
DetroitHorz0.280.2848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.220.2260.6160.610.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.220.2230.0030.00-0.09-0.09
Chicago St.WAC0.200.203.453.45-0.19-0.19
New OrleansSlnd0.200.2025.9325.93-0.10-0.10
Alabama A&MSWAC0.190.1935.7135.71-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
OaklandHorz0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Coppin St.MEAC0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1740.0040.00-0.03-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.160.1648.2848.28-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.160.1651.5251.520.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.1654.8454.840.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.140.1446.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.140.1462.8662.860.040.04
DrakeMVC0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.120.1282.1482.140.080.08
HamptonMEAC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1276.6776.670.060.06
LouisvilleACC0.120.1274.1974.190.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1210.7110.71-0.09-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
BelmontOVC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.110.1180.0080.000.070.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1122.8622.86-0.06-0.06
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.110.1111.1111.11-0.09-0.09
SouthernSWAC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
UABCUSA0.110.1180.6580.650.070.07
UMBCAE0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.110.1170.9770.970.050.05
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
HofstraCAA0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Penn St.B100.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.090.0964.2964.290.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0960.7160.710.020.02
DelawareCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
VermontAE0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IPFWSum0.080.0870.9770.970.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0883.8783.870.060.06
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
PortlandWCC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
IonaMAAC0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
LamarSlnd0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.0720.8320.83-0.04-0.04
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0732.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
ElonCAA0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Michigan St.B100.060.0685.2985.290.040.04
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Morehead St.OVC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Ohio St.B100.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
SeattleWAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0616.6716.67-0.04-0.04
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
DuquesneA100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UTSACUSA0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
High PointBSth0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.02-0.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RutgersB100.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Washington St.P120.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01