Wisconsin Green Bay

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	148.0
Current RPI:	148
Expected SOS:	122
Current SOS:	122
Current Record:	13-15
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-0
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	133
Expected OOC SOS:	22

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	148.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Wisconsin Green Bay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-13	Duquesne (109.0)	A10	A	84-66	L	0%
11-16	North Dakota St. (184.0)	Sum	A	65-61	L	0%
11-19	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	H	52-44	W	100%
11-21	Indiana St. (129.0)	MVC	A	57-56	L	0%
11-25	Virginia (53.0)	ACC	A	68-42	L	0%
12-1	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	H	71-68	W	100%
12-3	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	H	57-47	W	100%
12-7	Wisconsin (23.0)	B10	A	70-42	L	0%
12-10	Marquette (9.0)	BE	A	79-61	L	0%
12-22	Idaho (146.0)	WAC	H	63-61	W	100%
12-29	Butler (113.0)	Horz	A	53-49	L	0%
12-31	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	A	90-87	L	0%
1-7	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	A	64-63	L	0%
1-12	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	H	73-80	L	0%
1-14	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	H	57-56	W	100%
1-20	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	A	78-68	L	0%
1-22	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	A	77-47	L	0%
1-26	Valparaiso (95.0)	Horz	H	75-60	W	100%
1-28	Butler (113.0)	Horz	H	80-68	W	100%
2-4	Wisconsin Milwaukee (125.0)	Horz	H	75-81	L	0%
2-10	Wright St. (224.0)	Horz	A	48-53	W	100%
2-12	Detroit (126.0)	Horz	A	77-74	L	0%
2-14	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	H	71-65	W	100%
2-18	Eastern Michigan (243.0)	MAC	H	54-49	W	100%
2-21	Cleveland St. (85.0)	Horz	H	71-67	W	100%
2-23	Loyola Chicago (309.0)	Horz	A	70-73	W	100%
2-25	Illinois Chicago (297.0)	Horz	A	63-71	W	100%
2-28	Youngstown St. (170.0)	Horz	A	77-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Wisconsin Green Bay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Wisconsin Green Bay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Wisconsin Green Bay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	26.47	26.47	49.04	49.04	-0.51	-0.51
Youngstown St.	Horz	6.34	6.34	46.15	46.15	-0.49	-0.49
Detroit	Horz	4.85	4.85	58.06	58.06	0.78	0.78
Butler	Horz	4.78	4.78	58.06	58.06	0.77	0.77
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	4.74	4.74	55.17	55.17	0.49	0.49
Valparaiso	Horz	4.71	4.71	65.52	65.52	1.46	1.46
Wright St.	Horz	4.65	4.65	41.38	41.38	-0.80	-0.80
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.64	4.64	26.92	26.92	-2.14	-2.14
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.62	4.62	68.97	68.97	1.75	1.75
Loyola Chicago	Horz	4.62	4.62	22.22	22.22	-2.56	-2.56
Wisconsin	B10	1.87	1.87	71.88	71.88	0.82	0.82
Marquette	BE	1.87	1.87	77.42	77.42	1.03	1.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	1.85	1.85	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Duquesne	A10	1.84	1.84	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Idaho	WAC	1.84	1.84	57.14	57.14	0.26	0.26
Indiana St.	MVC	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.79	1.79	51.85	51.85	0.07	0.07
Virginia	ACC	1.79	1.79	70.00	70.00	0.71	0.71
Wyoming	MWC	1.79	1.79	64.29	64.29	0.51	0.51
Toledo	MAC	0.33	0.33	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.32	0.32	65.62	65.62	0.10	0.10
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.27	0.27	13.79	13.79	-0.19	-0.19
Western Michigan	MAC	0.23	0.23	39.39	39.39	-0.05	-0.05
IUPUI	Sum	0.21	0.21	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Robert Morris	NEC	0.18	0.18	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Central Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.18	0.18	21.88	21.88	-0.10	-0.10
Penn St.	B10	0.18	0.18	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Michigan St.	B10	0.17	0.17	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Western Illinois	Sum	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Air Force	MWC	0.15	0.15	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.12	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	64.29	64.29	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	BE	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.11	0.11	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.09	0.09	28.00	28.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.09	0.09	20.69	20.69	-0.05	-0.05
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Christian	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	83.87	83.87	0.06	0.06
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Nevada	WAC	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	81.25	81.25	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Boston University	AE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Georgia Southern	SC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	11.11	11.11	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Denver	SB	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	79.31	79.31	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.93	25.93	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	3.12	3.12	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00