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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:248.9
Current RPI:275
Expected SOS:320
Current SOS:149
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:2-8
Expected OOC RPI:224
Expected OOC SOS:151



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-895.00.06%
19-9120.50.19%
18-10141.90.79%
17-11160.21.94%
16-12180.35.00%
15-13201.28.68%
14-14220.814.72%
13-15240.017.52%
12-16258.917.38%
11-17276.514.72%
10-18293.19.91%
9-19308.05.36%
8-20320.22.38%
7-21328.41.06%
6-22337.00.22%
5-23342.20.05%
4-24347.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tulane (133.8)AmerA89-66L0%0.0
11-16Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBA86-75L0%0.0
11-19Valparaiso (84.9)MVCA0-010%-15.1
11-21Kent St. (87.0)MACA0-011%-14.9
11-24Samford (209.6)SCA0-028%-7.1
11-25Mississippi Valley St. (338.1)SWACN0-086%12.8
12-12UCF (73.2)AmerA0-07%-18.0
12-16Grambling St. (328.3)SWACA0-066%5.1
12-19Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBA0-016%-11.7
12-21Notre Dame (31.0)ACCA0-01%-27.1
12-28Stephen F. Austin (161.5)SlndH0-036%-4.5
12-31Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndA0-050%0.1
1-6Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndA0-048%-0.5
1-10Lamar (153.4)SlndA0-024%-8.4
1-13McNeese St. (331.7)SlndH0-082%10.8
1-17Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndH0-061%3.5
1-20Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndH0-080%10.2
1-24Sam Houston St. (231.6)SlndA0-035%-4.7
1-27Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndA0-049%-0.4
1-31Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndH0-056%1.7
2-3Central Arkansas (294.4)SlndH0-070%6.1
2-7Incarnate Word (309.6)SlndA0-058%2.5
2-10McNeese St. (331.7)SlndA0-066%4.8
2-14New Orleans (237.1)SlndH0-058%2.6
2-17Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndH0-068%5.5
2-24Northwestern St. (322.8)SlndA0-064%4.2
2-28New Orleans (237.1)SlndA0-039%-3.4
3-3Nicholls St. (279.7)SlndH0-068%5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd33.3326.330.0050.64-33.330.34
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.4850.0043.870.00-0.55
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.450.0022.480.00-2.45
New OrleansSlnd0.004.430.0042.090.00-0.70
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.420.0022.890.00-2.40
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.400.0035.290.00-1.29
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.320.0036.410.00-1.17
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.70100.0069.540.001.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.650.0038.970.00-0.58
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.640.0046.060.00-0.21
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.630.0029.120.00-1.10
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.630.0046.420.00-0.19
LamarSlnd0.002.61100.0065.170.000.79
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.002.0650.0058.250.000.34
Louisiana MonroeSB25.001.990.0044.75-25.00-0.21
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.001.910.0019.120.00-1.18
TulaneAmer25.001.89100.0052.5625.000.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.001.880.0032.740.00-0.65
ValparaisoMVC0.001.85100.0058.700.000.32
Kent St.MAC0.001.85100.0065.210.000.56
SamfordSC0.001.8533.3347.100.00-0.11
UCFAmer0.001.82100.0060.610.000.39
Notre DameACC0.001.79100.0072.800.000.81
SMUAmer4.170.30100.0076.264.170.16
Little RockSB0.000.290.0037.050.00-0.08
Texas St.SB0.000.2733.3346.090.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.2766.6753.670.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.2333.3345.780.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.000.2250.0050.670.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.210.0037.120.00-0.05
Arkansas St.SB0.000.2033.3342.010.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1950.0048.690.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.180.0044.630.00-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1750.0035.330.00-0.05
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.150.0044.500.00-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.15100.0057.270.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0022.610.00-0.08
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.1433.3347.670.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.1333.3346.410.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.13100.0071.560.000.06
LipscombASun0.000.1333.3349.220.00-0.00
BaylorB120.000.13100.0061.110.000.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.1366.6748.040.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.1266.6728.760.00-0.05
TempleAmer0.000.12100.0056.600.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1233.3345.540.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1233.3334.490.00-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1233.3336.610.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.120.0026.180.00-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.910.00-0.06
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.120.0033.850.00-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.120.0050.360.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1150.0034.730.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.10100.0053.790.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1033.3336.410.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.1050.0060.380.000.02
PittsburghACC0.000.1033.3334.560.00-0.03
Colorado St.MWC4.170.1066.6742.171.39-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1050.0036.640.00-0.03
UtahP120.000.10100.0067.160.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.10100.0046.080.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1033.3350.150.000.00
UABCUSA0.000.10100.0078.750.000.06
Georgia St.SB0.000.1050.0065.140.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.10100.0059.250.000.02
ClemsonACC0.000.10100.0054.960.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.100.0048.610.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.000.09100.0082.350.000.06
ConnecticutAmer0.000.09100.0056.360.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.090.0057.520.000.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.09100.0078.160.000.05
Wichita St.Amer0.000.09100.0082.290.000.06
MercerSC0.000.0975.0076.250.000.05
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.090.0034.040.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.09100.0039.920.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.09100.0060.370.000.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.070.0049.250.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.000.07100.0060.070.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0750.0062.630.000.02
TexasB120.000.07100.0063.830.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.070.0051.690.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0733.3338.350.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0766.6765.630.000.02
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0016.000.00-0.05
St. John'sBE0.000.07100.0054.590.000.01
VillanovaBE0.000.07100.0082.960.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.070.0045.040.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.070.0028.720.00-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.07100.0064.470.000.02
Air ForceMWC0.000.07100.0044.740.00-0.01
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0051.410.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.07100.0063.590.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.07100.0062.630.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.000.070.0039.010.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0068.280.000.02
Michigan St.B100.000.0650.0077.820.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6757.890.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0675.0061.940.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0675.0045.290.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.06100.0054.680.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0047.670.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.06100.0068.200.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0675.0048.770.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0038.990.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.0650.0035.740.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0633.3357.840.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0059.440.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0633.3352.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0633.3343.810.00-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0666.6763.230.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
The CitadelSC0.000.0633.3330.460.00-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.060.0056.560.000.01
VMISC0.000.0633.3327.450.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0021.380.00-0.04
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.000.0650.0050.190.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.06100.0061.010.000.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0666.6740.170.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0633.3348.480.00-0.00
OregonP120.000.06100.0076.200.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
UCLAP120.000.06100.0064.910.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.06100.0075.130.000.03
FloridaSEC0.000.04100.0080.230.000.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.04100.0053.240.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.04100.0086.180.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.040.0033.930.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.040.0026.150.00-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0450.0060.430.000.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.030.0042.670.00-0.01
TCUB124.170.03100.0061.154.170.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0366.6757.400.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0018.400.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.060.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0333.3353.520.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0333.3348.640.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0025.140.00-0.02
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.03100.0061.320.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.030.007.670.00-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.700.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0350.0048.680.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.000.0333.3331.290.00-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0083.580.000.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.030.0043.690.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0066.990.000.01
Miami FLACC0.000.03100.0074.500.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0325.0047.800.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.030.0030.910.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.03100.0062.240.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0074.140.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0325.0035.000.00-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.000.0333.3335.210.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.03100.0071.180.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.030.0031.380.00-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0375.0055.040.000.00
PurdueB100.000.03100.0085.360.000.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.030.0042.340.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0333.3331.840.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0350.0050.360.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0035.450.00-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
FordhamA100.000.0333.3336.170.00-0.01
LIU BrooklynNEC4.170.0325.0045.73-2.08-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0350.0049.480.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.03100.0050.450.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
South DakotaSum0.000.0366.6767.630.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.03100.0064.120.000.01
VCUA100.000.0366.6766.590.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0333.3353.190.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.030.0041.210.00-0.01
XavierBE0.000.03100.0078.990.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0366.6767.320.000.01
UNLVMWC0.000.03100.0064.720.000.01