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Through games of Dec 17, 2014.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:238.6
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:297
Current SOS:47
Current Record:1-8
Expected Record:13-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:11-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:247
Expected OOC SOS:92



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-10108.40.07%
19-11120.90.20%
18-12144.20.90%
17-13162.22.78%
16-14181.07.85%
15-15201.914.20%
14-16222.718.56%
13-17244.619.55%
12-18265.117.01%
11-19283.510.53%
10-20299.75.48%
9-21311.81.99%
8-22320.70.67%
7-23329.10.14%
6-24336.80.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oklahoma St. (31.8)B12A83-55L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma (19.0)B12A78-53L0%0.0
11-22Western Illinois (296.8)SumA60-57L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCA81-62L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee Tech (200.2)OVCH86-65W100%0.0
11-28Tulane (153.6)AmerA71-61L0%0.0
12-2Gonzaga (11.8)WCCA76-57L0%0.0
12-6Southeast Missouri St. (245.5)OVCA63-59L0%0.0
12-16UTEP (61.4)CUSAA80-62L0%0.0
12-19Winthrop (252.4)BSthH0-065%4.6
12-22UCF (250.2)AmerA0-047%-0.8
12-23South Florida (150.8)AmerA0-024%-8.3
1-5Stephen F. Austin (74.8)SlndA0-09%-16.0
1-10Houston Baptist (270.8)SlndH0-074%7.5
1-12Sam Houston St. (104.1)SlndH0-030%-6.2
1-17Incarnate Word (116.2)SlndA0-016%-11.8
1-19Lamar (270.1)SlndA0-049%-0.4
1-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (322.4)SlndH0-085%12.1
1-31Northwestern St. (267.7)SlndH0-071%6.6
2-2McNeese St. (236.8)SlndH0-066%4.8
2-7Abilene Christian (337.1)SlndA0-074%7.6
2-10Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH0-089%14.3
2-14Nicholls St. (333.1)SlndA0-070%6.3
2-16McNeese St. (236.8)SlndA0-037%-3.9
2-21Abilene Christian (337.1)SlndH0-092%16.4
2-23New Orleans (280.4)SlndH0-074%7.5
2-28Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA0-068%5.5
3-2Northwestern St. (267.7)SlndA0-043%-2.1
3-5New Orleans (280.4)SlndA0-046%-1.3
3-7Nicholls St. (333.1)SlndH0-090%15.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd28.6026.3811.1149.08-22.24-0.49
Central ArkansasSlnd0.314.190.0017.41-0.31-2.73
Northwestern St.Slnd0.314.160.0037.15-0.31-1.07
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.140.0019.56-0.00-2.52
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.1425.0048.87-0.00-0.09
New OrleansSlnd0.004.130.0038.34-0.00-0.96
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.0116.6720.05-0.00-2.40
Tennessee TechOVC11.463.3950.0049.750.00-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.312.5075.0073.920.151.19
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.4825.0029.20-0.00-1.03
LamarSlnd0.002.4714.2933.65-0.00-0.81
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.4650.0074.250.001.19
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.4566.6777.210.001.33
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.4320.0039.20-0.00-0.53
TulaneAmer6.251.8485.7153.314.460.12
OklahomaB125.561.7975.0066.202.780.58
South FloridaAmer0.001.7850.0047.700.00-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.OVC5.561.7837.5045.37-1.39-0.17
UCFAmer0.001.7855.5634.390.00-0.56
Oklahoma St.B125.561.7287.5061.924.170.41
UTEPCUSA5.561.7062.5071.291.390.72
GonzagaWCC5.561.6788.8990.764.321.36
Western IllinoisSum5.561.6728.5728.94-2.38-0.70
WinthropBSth0.001.6728.5747.68-0.00-0.08
TulsaAmer0.620.3060.0056.680.120.04
HoustonAmer0.000.2771.4348.780.00-0.01
MemphisAmer0.310.2655.5660.050.030.05
TCUB120.000.25100.0066.280.000.08
BaylorB120.000.2190.0073.960.000.10
Morehead St.OVC0.000.2118.1846.19-0.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.280.2070.0071.340.110.09
DenverSum0.000.2050.0053.980.000.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1970.0066.610.000.06
North TexasCUSA0.310.1842.8636.42-0.04-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1855.5638.460.00-0.04
Texas TechB120.000.1888.8955.730.000.02
TempleAmer0.000.1760.0053.790.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1777.7865.350.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.310.1654.5557.610.030.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1522.2230.96-0.00-0.06
BelmontOVC0.000.1560.0062.430.000.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.1542.8655.67-0.000.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.150.0016.94-0.00-0.10
Iowa St.B120.000.1588.8964.130.000.04
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1477.7869.420.000.06
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1437.5038.59-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1457.1456.210.000.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1342.8652.07-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1216.6725.04-0.00-0.06
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1244.4455.33-0.000.01
TroySB0.000.1233.3340.58-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.590.1272.7357.410.270.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1233.3339.12-0.00-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1255.5661.640.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.120.0024.33-0.00-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1262.5066.710.000.04
North FloridaASun0.690.1244.4456.92-0.080.02
KansasB120.000.1188.8969.540.000.04
Kansas St.B120.000.1160.0037.340.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.1190.0081.760.000.07
West VirginiaB120.000.1190.0066.760.000.04
IndianaB100.000.1080.0057.470.000.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.310.1060.0049.650.06-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.1077.7871.830.000.04
LSUSEC0.000.1077.7862.380.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.1020.0039.57-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1036.3644.37-0.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.1042.8643.73-0.00-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.350.1050.0039.320.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.350.1050.0038.030.00-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.310.0944.4444.76-0.03-0.01
WisconsinB100.310.0990.9188.430.250.07
UMKCWAC0.000.0922.2242.15-0.00-0.01
RadfordBSth0.000.0950.0055.940.000.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.350.0918.1827.98-0.22-0.04
NebraskaB100.000.0966.6743.830.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0971.4364.070.000.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.350.0971.4359.600.150.02
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0944.4449.01-0.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0933.3345.72-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0942.8650.31-0.000.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.0966.6770.610.000.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.280.0942.8641.92-0.04-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.310.090.0039.62-0.31-0.02
PacificWCC0.350.0942.8638.32-0.05-0.02
MissouriSEC0.620.0944.4431.65-0.07-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.690.0966.6755.660.230.01
UTSACUSA0.000.0942.8637.04-0.00-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.310.0925.0023.97-0.15-0.04
CreightonBE0.310.0972.7351.600.140.00
WashingtonP120.310.09100.0072.030.310.04
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0785.7170.330.000.03
IPFWSum0.000.0757.1456.730.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0720.0026.18-0.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0733.3345.26-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.000.0755.5642.690.00-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0755.5656.480.000.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0757.1454.700.000.01
ToledoMAC0.000.0760.0059.520.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0044.80-0.00-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0637.5050.07-0.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0662.5056.250.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.05-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0620.0026.68-0.00-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.000.060.008.71-0.00-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0614.2945.52-0.00-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.310.0627.2737.77-0.14-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.350.0618.1821.69-0.22-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.0637.5041.33-0.00-0.01
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.360.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0068.510.000.02
DuquesneA100.000.0628.5731.25-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0620.0029.28-0.00-0.03
MarylandB100.000.0690.9167.700.000.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.280.0611.1144.96-0.22-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0620.0028.69-0.00-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.690.0644.4451.18-0.080.00
LipscombASun0.690.0625.0042.50-0.35-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0650.0046.160.00-0.00
USCP120.690.0660.0037.230.14-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.310.0675.0067.080.150.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0650.0052.290.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.350.0610.0018.04-0.28-0.04
XavierBE0.310.0680.0071.020.190.02
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4449.46-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0650.0037.400.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0660.0061.810.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0642.8638.50-0.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.310.0644.4444.99-0.03-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.000.0670.0058.440.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.620.0636.3664.92-0.170.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0032.540.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.280.06100.0080.830.280.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0610.0041.11-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.280.0687.5064.520.210.02
UABCUSA0.000.0633.3338.24-0.00-0.01
Washington St.P120.590.0640.0029.07-0.12-0.02
BYUWCC0.000.0666.6767.780.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.0675.0058.890.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0666.6748.960.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0041.530.00-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.0671.4357.420.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0360.0040.460.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0355.5654.760.000.00
AkronMAC0.350.0360.0056.780.070.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.350.0333.3363.36-0.120.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.350.0337.5048.87-0.09-0.00
IdahoBSky0.350.0337.5049.83-0.09-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.350.0357.1456.560.050.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0344.4435.62-0.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0366.6745.400.00-0.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.310.030.0032.05-0.31-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6776.500.000.02
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0344.4439.99-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6752.510.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.310.0337.5040.12-0.08-0.01
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0050.770.000.00
WoffordSC0.000.0377.7876.160.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.02-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0333.3332.03-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0336.3638.88-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0387.5077.040.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0366.6759.320.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0340.0049.99-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0390.0078.120.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0360.0034.010.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0311.1128.93-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0360.0064.580.000.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0028.64-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0355.5665.660.000.01
Colorado St.MWC0.310.03100.0077.970.310.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0350.0054.660.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.24-0.00-0.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.310.0333.3334.56-0.10-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0388.8981.120.000.02
Oregon St.P120.310.0375.0049.720.15-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.310.0362.5064.360.080.01
SouthernSWAC0.350.030.0034.38-0.35-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0355.5648.830.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.310.0380.0072.470.190.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0342.8638.02-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0325.0025.95-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.280.0362.5059.460.070.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0377.7878.200.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0310.0018.36-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0381.8264.060.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.280.0355.5640.200.03-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0388.8963.530.000.01
Weber St.BSky0.000.0328.5742.24-0.00-0.00