Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	227.0
Current RPI:	227
Expected SOS:	195
Current SOS:	195
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-7
Current OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC Record:	0-9
Expected OOC RPI:	308
Expected OOC SOS:	55

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	227.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Wisconsin (32.0)	B10	A	87-47	L	0%
11-13	Marquette (13.0)	BE	A	64-53	L	0%
11-15	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	81-56	L	0%
11-28	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	99-62	L	0%
12-1	Southeast Missouri St. (216.0)	OVC	H	58-61	L	0%
12-10	Louisiana Monroe (305.0)	SB	A	68-61	L	0%
12-16	North Texas (247.0)	SB	A	45-40	L	0%
12-19	Florida (7.0)	SEC	A	82-43	L	0%
1-3	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	72-86	L	0%
1-5	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	H	72-68	W	100%
1-7	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	63-67	W	100%
1-12	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	H	70-65	W	100%
1-17	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	A	52-40	L	0%
1-19	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	A	103-68	L	0%
1-24	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	H	69-65	W	100%
1-26	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	H	67-53	W	100%
1-31	Central Arkansas (286.0)	Slnd	A	69-70	W	100%
2-2	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	A	65-59	L	0%
2-9	Nicholls St. (296.0)	Slnd	A	62-73	W	100%
2-14	Northwestern St. (78.0)	Slnd	H	76-79	L	0%
2-16	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	H	54-50	W	100%
2-19	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	A	65-58	L	0%
2-23	Winthrop (269.0)	BSth	A	66-52	L	0%
2-28	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (323.0)	Slnd	A	78-64	L	0%
3-2	Sam Houston St. (224.0)	Slnd	A	54-45	L	0%
3-7	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	H	79-68	W	100%
3-9	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	H	86-72	W	100%
3-14	McNeese St. (246.0)	Slnd	N	85-65	W	100%
3-15	Stephen F. Austin (65.0)	Slnd	N	68-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	26.64	26.64	40.87	40.87	-4.86	-4.86
McNeese St.	Slnd	6.30	6.30	40.00	40.00	-1.26	-1.26
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	6.24	6.24	87.50	87.50	4.68	4.68
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.72	4.72	44.83	44.83	-0.49	-0.49
Northwestern St.	Slnd	4.70	4.70	68.00	68.00	1.69	1.69
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.62	4.62	32.14	32.14	-1.65	-1.65
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.61	4.61	42.31	42.31	-0.71	-0.71
Oral Roberts	Slnd	4.59	4.59	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Lamar	Slnd	4.56	4.56	10.34	10.34	-3.62	-3.62
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.52	4.52	15.38	15.38	-3.13	-3.13
Louisiana Tech	WAC	1.99	1.99	80.00	80.00	1.20	1.20
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.91	1.91	46.67	46.67	-0.13	-0.13
North Texas	SB	1.84	1.84	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
Louisiana Monroe	SB	1.81	1.81	11.54	11.54	-1.39	-1.39
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.78	1.78	68.75	68.75	0.67	0.67
Wisconsin	B10	1.78	1.78	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
Florida	SEC	1.78	1.78	78.12	78.12	1.00	1.00
Marquette	BE	1.78	1.78	73.33	73.33	0.83	0.83
Winthrop	BSth	1.72	1.72	37.04	37.04	-0.45	-0.45
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.32	0.32	37.50	37.50	-0.08	-0.08
Oklahoma	B12	0.31	0.31	64.52	64.52	0.09	0.09
Texas A&M	SEC	0.28	0.28	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.25	0.25	31.25	31.25	-0.10	-0.10
Texas St.	WAC	0.25	0.25	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Arkansas St.	SB	0.24	0.24	60.00	60.00	0.05	0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.24	0.24	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.23	0.23	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
Florida International	SB	0.22	0.22	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.21	0.21	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.18	0.18	36.36	36.36	-0.05	-0.05
New Orleans	ind	0.17	0.17	18.18	18.18	-0.11	-0.11
Denver	WAC	0.17	0.17	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.15	0.15	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.15	0.15	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.12	0.12	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Charlotte	A10	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Grambling	SWAC	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.10
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.31	42.31	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	BE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	A10	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	CAA	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.03	0.03	22.58	22.58	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern California	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
California	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02