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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:232.7
Current RPI:273
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:331
Current Record:3-4
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:9-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-7
Current OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:205
Expected OOC SOS:320



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-793.80.05%
21-8110.10.21%
20-9131.30.70%
19-10146.12.17%
18-11163.45.01%
17-12183.29.52%
16-13203.314.53%
15-14223.518.15%
14-15244.117.32%
13-16263.714.29%
12-17280.99.67%
11-18297.35.24%
10-19309.92.13%
9-20321.90.75%
8-21330.30.23%
7-22337.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tulane (283.2)AmerA93-76L0%0.0
11-16Jackson St. (301.7)SWACH84-71W100%0.0
11-23UTEP (290.1)CUSAA56-72W100%0.0
11-25Colorado St. (95.8)MWCA67-59L0%0.0
11-27California (71.4)P12A67-55L0%0.0
11-30Maryland Eastern Shore (295.1)MEACH85-75W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana Tech (102.7)CUSAA88-59L0%0.0
12-12Florida A&M (345.5)MEACH0-088%14.3
12-17Toledo (170.4)MACA0-024%-8.6
12-20North Texas (299.2)CUSAA0-053%0.9
12-28Southern (234.3)SWACA0-039%-3.5
12-31Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndH0-052%0.6
1-2Incarnate Word (222.9)SlndH0-058%2.6
1-5Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndA0-040%-3.1
1-7Lamar (300.5)SlndA0-054%1.3
1-12Abilene Christian (190.8)SlndA0-032%-5.7
1-15McNeese St. (326.5)SlndH0-085%12.3
1-21Houston Baptist (219.0)SlndH0-060%3.2
1-25Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndH0-066%4.8
1-28Sam Houston St. (166.4)SlndA0-029%-6.7
2-1Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndH0-073%7.5
2-4Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndA0-049%-0.3
2-8Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndA0-026%-7.7
2-11New Orleans (251.5)SlndH0-066%4.9
2-16Northwestern St. (259.9)SlndA0-045%-1.4
2-18Stephen F. Austin (172.7)SlndH0-046%-1.2
2-22Central Arkansas (268.7)SlndH0-069%6.0
2-25Nicholls St. (253.7)SlndA0-054%1.2
3-2New Orleans (251.5)SlndA0-045%-1.4


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd28.8026.3252.0054.171.152.20
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.2912.5029.65-0.00-1.74
New OrleansSlnd0.454.2640.0041.72-0.09-0.70
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.2342.8637.41-0.00-1.07
Northwestern St.Slnd0.714.2220.0041.69-0.43-0.70
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.1940.0054.23-0.000.36
Houston BaptistSlnd0.004.140.0038.63-0.00-0.94
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.6250.0057.540.000.39
McNeese St.Slnd0.002.610.0017.70-0.00-1.69
LamarSlnd0.002.5850.0041.380.00-0.45
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.5825.0043.48-0.00-0.34
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.5725.0055.38-0.000.28
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.5575.0060.990.000.56
UTEPCUSA7.141.9125.0036.79-3.57-0.51
Louisiana TechCUSA8.161.9140.0069.98-1.630.76
SouthernSWAC0.001.8840.0058.72-0.000.33
TulaneAmer7.141.850.0021.31-7.14-1.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC8.251.850.0035.75-8.25-0.53
North TexasCUSA0.001.8533.3329.83-0.00-0.74
Florida A&MMEAC0.001.790.0022.99-0.00-0.96
Jackson St.SWAC7.141.7916.6745.20-4.76-0.17
Colorado St.MWC7.651.7566.6759.132.550.32
CaliforniaP127.741.7583.3360.925.160.38
ToledoMAC0.001.7237.5046.94-0.00-0.11
RiceCUSA0.000.3675.0071.470.000.15
Southern MissCUSA0.510.2425.0020.78-0.26-0.14
New MexicoMWC0.000.2362.5058.450.000.04
UTSACUSA0.000.2225.0029.54-0.00-0.09
Alcorn St.SWAC1.020.210.0034.27-1.02-0.07
Texas TechB120.000.2087.5062.040.000.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.1971.4363.930.000.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1914.2932.19-0.00-0.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1814.2931.28-0.00-0.07
OklahomaB120.450.1771.4348.350.19-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.1650.0038.050.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.510.1657.1471.520.070.07
UABCUSA0.000.1650.0059.920.000.03
MemphisAmer0.510.1675.0055.500.260.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.510.1675.0070.180.260.06
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1671.4354.310.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.600.1512.5033.65-0.45-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1525.0031.41-0.00-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.510.1571.4354.860.220.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1587.5076.230.000.08
Western MichiganMAC0.710.1416.6736.03-0.48-0.04
Arizona St.P120.450.1462.5040.460.11-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.1420.0037.65-0.00-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1475.0066.170.000.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.1342.8650.06-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1312.5037.99-0.00-0.03
HowardMEAC0.000.1316.6744.34-0.00-0.01
UCFAmer0.000.1285.7176.240.000.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0013.46-0.00-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.120.0025.23-0.00-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1250.0066.300.000.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.120.0023.69-0.00-0.06
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1271.4351.460.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.1214.2936.02-0.00-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.1216.6730.34-0.00-0.05
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1271.4368.050.000.04
Little RockSB0.000.1166.6761.330.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1016.6729.81-0.00-0.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1066.6766.180.000.03
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1085.7153.560.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.710.1075.0048.030.36-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1022.2221.23-0.00-0.06
MissouriSEC0.450.1057.1442.530.06-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.1062.5056.520.000.01
Texas St.SB0.000.1050.0043.390.00-0.01
USCP120.000.10100.0076.680.000.05
Washington St.P120.000.1042.8628.98-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.510.0957.1429.790.07-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0914.2938.26-0.00-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.000.0937.5031.23-0.00-0.04
UNLVMWC0.000.0962.5043.800.00-0.01
BaylorB120.000.09100.0076.590.000.05
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.090.0020.75-0.00-0.05
Georgia TechACC0.450.0957.1436.010.06-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0983.3371.480.000.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.0966.6740.030.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0937.5035.09-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0966.6766.860.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0977.7849.900.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.000.0925.0022.93-0.00-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.000.0957.1433.230.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.510.0960.0069.120.100.03
WyomingMWC0.510.0966.6754.050.170.01
WisconsinB100.000.0977.7876.040.000.05
ColoradoP120.510.0975.0062.620.260.02
StanfordP120.510.0966.6758.060.170.01
MichiganB100.000.0975.0066.460.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0787.5074.490.000.03
MarquetteBE0.000.0775.0066.410.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.0757.1458.840.000.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.070.0022.01-0.00-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0757.1450.420.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0785.7166.190.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0687.5065.250.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0017.13-0.00-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0614.2942.67-0.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.060.0035.95-0.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0018.64-0.00-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0625.0027.53-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.0642.8641.51-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.600.0657.1444.890.09-0.01
Wichita St.MVC1.020.0675.0086.710.510.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0642.8656.04-0.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0650.0041.490.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.0675.0068.370.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0642.8647.11-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0628.5741.52-0.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0671.4356.250.000.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0687.5082.360.000.04
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0650.0056.740.000.01
HoustonAmer0.000.0685.7178.280.000.03
Kent St.MAC0.000.0657.1454.360.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0642.8645.56-0.00-0.01
OregonP120.000.0675.0072.250.000.03
TempleAmer0.000.0675.0064.920.000.02
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
ArmyPat0.000.0642.8650.09-0.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0074.440.000.03
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0671.4373.040.000.03
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0616.6738.58-0.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.0642.8638.63-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.000.0371.4355.820.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0021.80-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0375.0051.040.000.00
PurdueB100.000.0375.0075.340.000.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.0366.6735.430.00-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0342.8643.60-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0052.760.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.000.0312.5029.15-0.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.280.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0325.0030.23-0.00-0.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0357.1449.130.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.24-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0314.2931.35-0.00-0.01
DrakeMVC0.000.030.0019.67-0.00-0.02
DrexelCAA0.000.0350.0040.600.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.0344.4442.03-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.510.0355.5641.690.06-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0322.2226.33-0.00-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.510.0387.5068.610.380.01
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.510.0380.0054.540.310.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0362.5067.390.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.000.0385.7162.990.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.710.0375.0054.490.360.00
Western CarolinaSC0.510.0328.5723.12-0.22-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0357.1471.940.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.030.0038.27-0.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.0377.7871.970.000.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0316.6739.20-0.00-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.600.03100.0078.850.600.02
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0333.3352.21-0.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0333.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DetroitHorz0.000.030.0021.22-0.00-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0342.8644.71-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0371.4358.920.000.01
Miami OHMAC0.000.0342.8630.92-0.00-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.450.0387.5081.960.330.02
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.510.0325.0039.59-0.26-0.01
St. John'sBE0.450.0337.5037.03-0.11-0.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0350.0045.970.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.510.0350.0054.070.000.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0383.3377.100.000.02
VirginiaACC0.000.0387.5078.510.000.02
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0342.8638.17-0.00-0.01