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Through games of Feb 11, 2016.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:337.5
Current RPI:342
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:272
Current Record:3-18
Expected Record:7-22
Current Conf Record:3-7
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-11
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:346
Expected OOC SOS:189



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-18295.60.36%
10-19310.14.03%
9-20323.913.13%
8-21334.724.56%
7-22341.428.42%
6-23345.519.48%
5-24348.07.92%
4-25349.41.97%
3-26350.60.12%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13TCU (167.2)B12A90-77L0%0.0
11-16Texas A&M (27.5)SECA100-58L0%0.0
11-22Nebraska (149.2)B10A92-65L0%0.0
11-24Cincinnati (46.9)AmerA64-49L0%0.0
11-27Gardner Webb (221.5)BSthN77-68L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas Pine Bluff (313.3)SWACN62-60L0%0.0
12-4Southern (179.1)SWACH69-73L0%0.0
12-13Florida St. (50.6)ACCA75-58L0%0.0
12-15Florida A&M (347.6)MEACA67-64L0%0.0
12-21Georgia Tech (87.1)ACCA75-62L0%0.0
12-30Jackson St. (217.9)SWACA89-66L0%0.0
1-4Stephen F. Austin (96.5)SlndH69-89L0%0.0
1-9Houston Baptist (205.7)SlndA77-58L0%0.0
1-11Sam Houston St. (187.2)SlndA70-63L0%0.0
1-16Incarnate Word (188.7)SlndH71-75L0%0.0
1-18Lamar (336.2)SlndH98-70W100%0.0
1-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.0)SlndA73-63L0%0.0
1-30Northwestern St. (331.3)SlndA91-76L0%0.0
2-1McNeese St. (323.1)SlndH82-80W100%0.0
2-6Abilene Christian (317.9)SlndH81-60W100%0.0
2-9Central Arkansas (320.8)SlndA88-72L0%0.0
2-13Nicholls St. (324.5)SlndH0-073%6.7
2-15McNeese St. (323.1)SlndA0-038%-3.4
2-21Abilene Christian (317.9)SlndA0-043%-2.0
2-23New Orleans (318.1)SlndH0-059%2.4
2-27Central Arkansas (320.8)SlndH0-063%3.5
2-29Northwestern St. (331.3)SlndH0-062%3.4
3-3New Orleans (318.1)SlndA0-035%-4.3
3-5Nicholls St. (324.5)SlndA0-050%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd26.1926.3011.3924.51-20.22-13.41
Nicholls St.Slnd0.684.3118.1819.83-0.43-2.60
Central ArkansasSlnd2.754.2721.0526.91-1.59-1.97
New OrleansSlnd0.624.2626.3230.66-0.29-1.65
McNeese St.Slnd2.824.2623.5331.23-1.49-1.60
Northwestern St.Slnd2.944.2512.5022.83-2.20-2.31
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.114.2236.8435.33-0.82-1.24
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.942.5775.0071.341.471.10
LamarSlnd2.942.5431.5830.30-1.08-1.00
Houston BaptistSlnd2.932.5347.3747.82-0.15-0.11
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.892.5342.1147.32-0.46-0.14
Incarnate WordSlnd2.752.5350.0050.100.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.872.5170.5974.621.181.24
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.591.9020.8323.28-1.51-1.02
NebraskaB102.541.8450.0049.120.00-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC2.541.8447.6252.55-0.120.09
SouthernSWAC2.541.8460.0064.050.510.52
TCUB122.501.8243.4837.34-0.33-0.46
Florida St.ACC2.381.8165.2262.030.720.44
Florida A&MMEAC2.441.7921.0521.96-1.41-1.00
CincinnatiAmer2.481.7870.8370.631.030.73
Texas A&MSEC2.441.7573.9174.521.170.86
Georgia TechACC2.381.7552.1750.400.100.01
Gardner WebbBSth2.381.7240.9143.10-0.43-0.24
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.260.239.0917.14-0.21-0.15
OklahomaB120.250.2286.9682.620.180.14
BaylorB120.290.2273.9168.450.140.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.270.2140.0040.34-0.05-0.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.220.2145.4554.18-0.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.210.2020.0022.25-0.12-0.11
ArkansasSEC0.280.1950.0052.940.000.01
TulaneAmer0.220.1936.0034.84-0.06-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.210.1736.8442.88-0.05-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.210.1728.5733.30-0.09-0.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.220.1715.0018.13-0.15-0.11
SMUAmer0.160.1786.9682.920.120.12
LSUSEC0.170.1662.5059.080.040.03
HoustonAmer0.110.1570.8367.980.040.05
PittsburghACC0.160.1572.7367.600.070.05
MemphisAmer0.150.1558.3359.310.030.03
TennesseeSEC0.250.1450.0048.130.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.190.1470.8367.970.080.05
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.1460.0062.250.010.03
UC RiversideBW0.180.1345.8341.63-0.01-0.02
MassachusettsA100.060.1343.4842.40-0.01-0.02
IndianaB100.110.1280.0075.690.070.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.220.129.0912.26-0.18-0.09
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1286.3684.220.090.08
NorthwesternB100.050.1264.0062.090.010.03
RutgersB100.150.1221.7420.34-0.09-0.07
TulsaAmer0.110.1266.6764.700.040.03
Virginia TechACC0.160.1252.0048.920.01-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.160.1243.4843.77-0.02-0.01
Texas TechB120.160.1160.8755.310.030.01
TexasB120.210.1166.6762.200.070.03
ClemsonACC0.100.1158.3358.400.020.02
Miami FLACC0.150.1182.6177.580.100.06
SyracuseACC0.150.1168.0064.090.050.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.120.1031.8236.11-0.04-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.120.1025.0033.23-0.06-0.03
Texas St.SB0.120.1040.0038.88-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.070.1039.1335.45-0.02-0.03
MississippiSEC0.070.1062.5058.940.020.02
RiceCUSA0.190.1027.2728.16-0.09-0.04
Savannah St.MEAC0.110.1038.1037.67-0.03-0.02
LibertyBSth0.110.1034.7836.53-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0950.0045.770.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0912.0011.95-0.04-0.07
DuquesneA100.050.0960.8756.270.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0959.0961.280.010.02
Arizona St.P120.180.0954.1751.700.010.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0927.2727.80-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.120.0913.0412.96-0.09-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.060.0931.8232.46-0.02-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.110.0940.9138.82-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.120.0980.0077.910.070.05
IowaB100.150.0979.1778.880.090.05
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0958.3359.970.020.02
HawaiiBW0.050.0985.0083.440.030.06
OhioMAC0.150.0963.6461.470.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.150.0950.0048.950.00-0.00
VCUA100.150.0870.8371.050.060.04
LouisvilleACC0.100.0879.1775.990.060.04
Notre DameACC0.050.0870.8367.930.020.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0858.3356.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.0833.3330.28-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.150.0845.8342.30-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.070.0779.1778.290.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0745.4549.05-0.01-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0747.6249.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0729.1733.11-0.00-0.02
UCLAP120.070.0756.5253.400.010.00
CaliforniaP120.130.0766.6764.780.040.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.0750.0051.280.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.120.0773.0872.610.050.03
UTEPCUSA0.120.0754.1754.200.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0760.8757.130.000.01
CampbellBSth0.100.0631.8232.08-0.04-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.050.0657.1457.670.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0654.5552.530.010.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.8323.28-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.100.0657.1459.870.010.01
LongwoodBSth0.050.0621.7424.60-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0659.0956.870.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.3865.510.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0638.4638.04-0.01-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.100.0623.8125.49-0.05-0.03
RadfordBSth0.100.0652.1754.100.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.110.0647.8348.57-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.110.0656.0054.430.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.0619.0525.90-0.07-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.0643.4850.64-0.010.00
SamfordSC0.110.0640.0041.68-0.02-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.110.0640.0042.85-0.02-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0636.3638.97-0.02-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.110.0672.7370.520.050.02
George WashingtonA100.100.0675.0071.960.050.03
Illinois St.MVC0.110.0656.0054.080.010.00
MichiganB100.110.0670.8366.750.040.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.0673.9174.640.050.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.100.0662.5063.450.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0642.3144.53-0.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0670.8365.580.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0658.3360.710.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0669.5770.090.000.02
ArmyPat0.100.0654.1754.290.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.110.0628.5734.11-0.05-0.02
WisconsinB100.100.0662.5057.000.030.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0629.1726.69-0.02-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0675.0071.840.020.02
FloridaSEC0.100.0666.6766.320.030.02
North CarolinaACC0.100.0683.3378.380.070.03
VirginiaACC0.100.0683.3378.460.070.03
Wake ForestACC0.100.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
ColgatePat0.100.0643.4844.90-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0670.8370.130.020.02
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0641.6739.49-0.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0659.0955.160.020.01
KansasB120.100.0682.6179.200.060.03
Penn St.B100.000.0650.0046.770.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.100.0658.3357.250.020.01
South FloridaAmer0.100.0620.0019.73-0.06-0.03
TempleAmer0.100.0665.2262.370.030.01
VillanovaBE0.100.0687.5086.850.070.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0679.1778.100.030.03
Michigan St.B100.100.0580.0081.560.060.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0314.2920.64-0.04-0.02
FIUCUSA0.060.0339.1342.98-0.01-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0325.0026.38-0.03-0.02
North FloridaASun0.060.0362.5064.120.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0340.0045.20-0.01-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0352.1754.130.000.00
St. John'sBE0.070.0325.0023.45-0.04-0.02
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0325.0028.15-0.03-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.060.0363.6461.550.020.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0347.6248.04-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0356.0055.450.010.00
UABCUSA0.070.0383.3379.820.040.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0314.2915.44-0.04-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0365.2268.600.020.01
RiderMAAC0.060.0340.0042.04-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0369.5770.020.020.01
VMISC0.050.0319.0519.67-0.03-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0366.6763.780.020.01
ElonCAA0.060.0350.0050.070.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0382.6181.130.040.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0358.3358.580.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0343.4842.54-0.01-0.00
MarquetteBE0.050.0364.0057.890.020.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7833.02-0.02-0.01
OregonP120.050.0379.1777.200.030.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0330.0031.76-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.340.020.01
DePaulBE0.050.0333.3334.02-0.02-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0326.0927.89-0.02-0.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0366.6766.770.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
ButlerBE0.050.0370.8369.000.020.01
CornellIvy0.050.0342.1140.24-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.070.010.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0360.8760.240.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.870.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.050.0379.1777.510.030.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0356.5257.700.010.00
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.07-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0072.610.000.01
MarylandB100.050.0387.5083.660.040.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0325.0027.26-0.02-0.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0360.0055.560.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.050.0326.9228.60-0.02-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.420.040.02
UCFAmer0.050.0350.0044.650.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0362.5060.140.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0331.8234.54-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.850.040.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0333.3332.04-0.02-0.01
SeattleWAC0.050.0347.6245.02-0.00-0.00