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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:248.0
Current RPI:248
Expected SOS:322
Current SOS:322
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-8
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:217
Expected OOC SOS:319



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16248.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Tulane (296.0)AmerA93-76L0%0.0
11-16Jackson St. (323.0)SWACH84-71W100%0.0
11-23UTEP (222.0)CUSAA56-72W100%0.0
11-25Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA67-59L0%0.0
11-27California (53.0)P12A67-55L0%0.0
11-30Maryland Eastern Shore (278.0)MEACH85-75W100%0.0
12-3Louisiana Tech (116.0)CUSAA88-59L0%0.0
12-12Florida A&M (349.0)MEACH108-69W100%0.0
12-17Toledo (155.0)MACA78-56L0%0.0
12-20North Texas (339.0)CUSAA71-65L0%0.0
12-28Southern (320.0)SWACA53-64W100%0.0
12-31Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH75-53W100%0.0
1-2Incarnate Word (303.0)SlndH74-63W100%0.0
1-5Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndA81-74L0%0.0
1-7Lamar (232.0)SlndA74-54L0%0.0
1-12Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndA50-56W100%0.0
1-15McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH79-75W100%0.0
1-21Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH83-71W100%0.0
1-25Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndH71-85L0%0.0
1-28Sam Houston St. (194.0)SlndA71-69L0%0.0
2-1Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndH72-44W100%0.0
2-4Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndA68-66L0%0.0
2-8Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndA80-75L0%0.0
2-11New Orleans (154.0)SlndH52-60L0%0.0
2-16Northwestern St. (306.0)SlndA66-73W100%0.0
2-18Stephen F. Austin (202.0)SlndH52-60L0%0.0
2-22Central Arkansas (313.0)SlndH87-70W100%0.0
2-25Nicholls St. (252.0)SlndA77-71L0%0.0
3-2New Orleans (154.0)SlndA58-63W100%0.0
3-8Lamar (232.0)SlndN77-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd26.3126.3150.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd4.184.1861.5461.540.960.96
Central ArkansasSlnd4.174.1723.3323.33-2.23-2.23
LamarSlnd4.174.1748.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Nicholls St.Slnd4.124.1236.0036.00-1.15-1.15
Northwestern St.Slnd4.114.1134.7834.78-1.25-1.25
Houston BaptistSlnd4.064.0650.0050.000.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.054.0539.1339.13-0.88-0.88
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.732.7355.1755.170.280.28
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.592.5959.2659.260.480.48
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.572.5750.0050.000.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd2.552.5520.0020.00-1.53-1.53
Incarnate WordSlnd2.492.4933.3333.33-0.83-0.83
UTEPCUSA1.841.8446.6746.67-0.12-0.12
SouthernSWAC1.841.8444.8344.83-0.19-0.19
Louisiana TechCUSA1.831.8366.6766.670.610.61
TulaneAmer1.791.7916.6716.67-1.19-1.19
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.781.7838.7138.71-0.40-0.40
North TexasCUSA1.781.7818.5218.52-1.12-1.12
Jackson St.SWAC1.751.7542.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Florida A&MMEAC1.721.7218.5218.52-1.08-1.08
CaliforniaP121.691.6962.5062.500.420.42
Colorado St.MWC1.691.6964.5264.520.490.49
ToledoMAC1.671.6748.3948.39-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.360.3664.5264.520.100.10
Southern MissCUSA0.250.2524.1424.14-0.13-0.13
UTSACUSA0.220.2238.7138.71-0.05-0.05
Alcorn St.SWAC0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.2035.4835.48-0.06-0.06
Texas TechB120.190.1956.2556.250.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
TulsaAmer0.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
UABCUSA0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.170.1755.8855.880.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.160.1687.8887.880.120.12
OklahomaB120.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1483.3383.330.090.09
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.140.1423.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.130.1332.1432.14-0.05-0.05
Oregon St.P120.130.1312.9012.90-0.10-0.10
Western MichiganMAC0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Arizona St.P120.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
NorthwesternB100.120.1267.6567.650.040.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.05-0.05
UCFAmer0.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.110.116.906.90-0.10-0.10
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.110.1121.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
HowardMEAC0.110.1125.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Utah St.MWC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1128.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
OhioMAC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
UtahP120.100.1062.0762.070.030.03
Little RockSB0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
SamfordSC0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0928.1228.12-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UNLVMWC0.090.0934.3834.38-0.03-0.03
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.080.0877.4277.420.050.05
East CarolinaAmer0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.080.0868.5768.570.030.03
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
StanfordP120.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.080.0884.8584.850.050.05
New HampshireAE0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
MarquetteBE0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
LibertyBSth0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
HoustonAmer0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
ArmyPat0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Boise St.MWC0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
ArizonaP120.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
TexasB120.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
HartfordAE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.030.0330.3030.30-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0387.5087.500.020.02
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Wake ForestACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.010.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
WashingtonP120.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01