Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	326.2
Current RPI:	326
Expected SOS:	334
Current SOS:	325
Current Record:	5-13
Expected Record:	8-18
Current Conf Record:	2-7
Expected Conf Record:	4-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.01%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-10
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	323
Expected OOC SOS:	336

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-14	277.0	0.04%
11-15	290.8	0.87%
10-16	303.1	5.45%
9-17	314.4	18.62%
8-18	325.3	30.85%
7-19	333.4	28.24%
6-20	338.2	13.27%
5-21	341.0	2.65%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-13	Tulsa (105.7)	CUSA	A	67-52	L	0%	0.0
11-19	Louisiana Monroe (323.3)	SB	H	63-60	W	100%	0.0
11-26	Western Kentucky (240.2)	SB	A	72-67	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Louisiana Tech (204.7)	WAC	H	72-69	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Southeast Missouri St. (242.4)	OVC	A	63-61	L	0%	0.0
12-12	Southern (294.1)	SWAC	H	65-61	W	100%	0.0
12-17	Arkansas (65.9)	SEC	A	62-55	L	0%	0.0
12-21	South Carolina (172.1)	SEC	A	62-43	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Texas Tech (233.7)	B12	A	62-54	L	0%	0.0
1-4	Texas Arlington (100.3)	Slnd	A	85-46	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Stephen F. Austin (244.7)	Slnd	A	63-36	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (314.7)	Slnd	H	67-55	W	100%	0.0
1-18	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	A	61-47	L	0%	0.0
1-21	Nicholls St. (314.5)	Slnd	H	53-55	L	0%	0.0
1-25	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	H	75-71	W	100%	0.0
1-28	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	A	55-38	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	H	59-83	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Sam Houston St. (286.0)	Slnd	H	55-57	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Texas San Antonio (169.2)	Slnd	A	0-0		5%	-18.4
2-11	Northwestern St. (178.3)	Slnd	H	0-0		29%	-6.0
2-15	Lamar (102.9)	Slnd	A	0-0		3%	-20.9
2-18	Tennessee Martin (321.8)	OVC	H	0-0		62%	3.3
2-22	Texas St. (316.7)	Slnd	H	0-0		47%	-0.8
2-25	Central Arkansas (299.5)	Slnd	A	0-0		35%	-4.3
2-29	McNeese St. (218.1)	Slnd	H	0-0		38%	-3.4
3-3	Nicholls St. (314.5)	Slnd	A	0-0		51%	0.2

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	26.22	26.25	22.73	26.09	-14.30	-12.55
Central Arkansas	Slnd	3.41	4.72	29.41	29.64	-1.41	-1.92
Northwestern St.	Slnd	3.34	4.69	52.63	52.10	0.18	0.20
Nicholls St.	Slnd	3.40	4.69	21.05	19.69	-1.97	-2.84
McNeese St.	Slnd	3.26	4.68	37.50	39.41	-0.82	-0.99
Lamar	Slnd	3.28	4.66	60.00	64.91	0.66	1.39
Texas Arlington	Slnd	3.33	2.69	75.00	75.08	1.67	1.35
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	3.35	2.66	19.05	21.86	-2.07	-1.50
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	3.12	2.65	43.75	48.78	-0.39	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.56	2.63	57.14	59.51	0.08	0.50
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	3.14	2.62	22.22	27.09	-1.74	-1.20
Texas St.	Slnd	0.59	2.62	22.22	26.61	-0.33	-1.23
Louisiana Tech	WAC	3.12	2.24	45.00	45.00	-0.31	-0.22
Louisiana Monroe	SB	3.11	2.20	9.09	9.32	-2.55	-1.79
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.85	2.14	45.00	45.15	-0.29	-0.21
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.21	2.13	4.35	8.65	-0.19	-1.77
Texas Tech	B12	2.92	1.99	28.57	23.43	-1.25	-1.06
Western Kentucky	SB	2.90	1.99	31.82	32.14	-1.05	-0.71
Tulsa	CUSA	2.90	1.99	59.09	57.64	0.53	0.30
Arkansas	SEC	2.84	1.99	68.18	63.99	1.03	0.56
South Carolina	SEC	2.78	1.95	38.10	37.48	-0.66	-0.49
Southern	SWAC	2.78	1.92	47.37	47.84	-0.15	-0.08
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.34	0.31	54.17	54.75	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.33	0.31	37.50	38.33	-0.08	-0.07
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.45	0.30	43.48	44.25	-0.06	-0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.29	0.24	43.48	43.31	-0.04	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.27	0.24	60.87	61.37	0.06	0.05
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.21	0.24	34.78	38.42	-0.06	-0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.27	0.24	56.52	48.81	0.04	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.41	0.24	52.38	46.15	0.02	-0.02
Houston	CUSA	0.18	0.23	47.62	44.63	-0.01	-0.03
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.19	0.23	78.26	72.34	0.11	0.10
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.21	0.21	33.33	34.47	-0.07	-0.07
North Texas	SB	0.32	0.20	50.00	50.01	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.25	0.20	59.09	57.28	0.05	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.26	0.20	47.62	46.46	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.22	0.18	30.00	33.20	-0.09	-0.06
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.28	0.17	69.57	68.90	0.11	0.07
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.22	0.17	30.00	37.30	-0.09	-0.04
Murray St.	OVC	0.13	0.17	100.00	94.55	0.13	0.15
Tulane	CUSA	0.20	0.17	61.90	58.59	0.05	0.03
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.20	0.17	19.05	24.61	-0.12	-0.09
Missouri	B12	0.20	0.17	91.30	87.18	0.16	0.13
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.19	0.17	56.52	53.10	0.02	0.01
Troy	SB	0.18	0.17	28.57	30.17	-0.08	-0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.19	0.16	59.09	54.70	0.04	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.25	0.16	95.83	92.57	0.23	0.14
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.25	0.16	45.45	40.70	-0.02	-0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.14	0.14	25.00	28.52	-0.07	-0.06
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.15	0.14	85.71	82.18	0.11	0.09
Florida International	SB	0.26	0.14	33.33	37.16	-0.09	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.14	33.33	35.97	-0.02	-0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.13	0.14	60.87	59.76	0.03	0.03
Denver	SB	0.18	0.13	70.83	72.23	0.08	0.06
Middle Tennessee	SB	0.00	0.13	83.33	84.76	0.00	0.09
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.25	0.13	38.10	37.86	-0.06	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.12	0.13	52.38	52.87	0.01	0.01
Louisville	BE	0.13	0.13	78.26	72.66	0.07	0.06
Grambling	SWAC	0.26	0.13	15.00	15.73	-0.18	-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.19	0.13	50.00	58.16	0.00	0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.20	0.13	50.00	52.93	0.00	0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.19	0.13	57.14	49.54	0.03	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.13	45.45	44.66	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.18	0.13	63.64	56.71	0.05	0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.14	0.11	82.61	81.44	0.09	0.07
Georgia St.	CAA	0.08	0.11	66.67	69.69	0.03	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.11	35.00	40.78	-0.05	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.06	0.10	34.78	35.50	-0.02	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.07	0.10	26.32	29.71	-0.03	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.10	86.96	83.16	0.10	0.07
Samford	SC	0.14	0.10	33.33	35.26	-0.05	-0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.18	0.10	56.52	54.22	0.02	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.13	0.10	19.05	25.52	-0.08	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.10	59.09	59.72	0.02	0.02
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.12	0.10	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.10	54.55	56.09	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.13	0.10	50.00	51.73	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.13	0.10	31.82	42.13	-0.05	-0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.07	0.10	39.13	44.52	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.10	81.82	77.20	0.04	0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.07	0.10	27.27	26.95	-0.03	-0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.10	86.96	85.46	0.10	0.07
Charlotte	A10	0.13	0.10	50.00	49.45	0.00	-0.00
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.10	90.91	83.85	0.11	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.13	0.10	82.61	77.63	0.08	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.00	0.10	45.45	41.20	-0.00	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.12	0.10	69.57	65.87	0.05	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.09	68.18	69.10	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.08	0.07	75.00	74.61	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.07	52.17	50.09	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.07	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.07	69.57	68.29	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.07	69.57	64.53	0.06	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.07	38.10	40.81	-0.00	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	65.00	66.70	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	45.45	46.99	-0.01	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.65	27.10	-0.04	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	23.02	-0.05	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	17.39	24.41	-0.05	-0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.00	0.07	56.00	55.65	0.00	0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.07	0.07	69.57	65.47	0.03	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.07	70.83	71.64	0.06	0.03
Providence	BE	0.13	0.07	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.07	47.62	48.82	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.00	0.07	76.00	72.50	0.00	0.03
Hawaii	WAC	0.07	0.07	57.14	53.12	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.07	0.07	47.62	51.08	-0.00	0.00
Nevada	WAC	0.07	0.07	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.04
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.12	0.07	80.00	78.06	0.07	0.04
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.07	8.70	11.67	-0.05	-0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.07	80.77	80.75	0.04	0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.07	62.50	62.49	0.03	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.00	0.07	40.91	39.82	-0.00	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	73.91	68.43	0.03	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	78.26	78.39	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	68.28	0.03	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.06	54.17	57.20	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	52.38	57.86	0.00	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.04	40.91	34.50	-0.00	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.00	0.04	31.82	32.75	-0.00	-0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.00	0.04	70.83	71.05	0.00	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.04	38.89	43.93	-0.02	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.08	0.04	33.33	33.82	-0.03	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.00	0.04	26.32	28.83	-0.00	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.04	24.00	24.86	-0.03	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.04	81.82	80.43	0.05	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.04	30.00	34.15	-0.03	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.07	0.04	34.78	35.20	-0.02	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.04	37.50	41.54	-0.02	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.04	13.64	16.14	-0.05	-0.02
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.04	65.22	62.65	0.02	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.04	73.91	75.49	0.03	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.07	0.03	19.05	22.37	-0.04	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.07	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.03	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.00	0.03	55.00	57.41	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.00	0.03	66.67	60.80	0.00	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.03	47.62	48.83	-0.00	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.00	0.03	35.00	35.31	-0.00	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.03	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.00	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.03	20.00	19.96	-0.04	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.00	0.03	33.33	41.31	-0.00	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.00	0.03	31.82	33.83	-0.00	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.03	42.86	45.80	-0.01	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.06	-0.02	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.07	0.03	21.74	24.58	-0.04	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.03	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.00	0.03	80.00	76.84	0.00	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.03	76.19	70.73	0.03	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.03	30.43	31.43	-0.02	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.03	38.10	42.78	-0.02	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.87	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.06	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.03	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.00	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.00	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.03	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	44.44	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.00	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.00	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	61.90	55.14	0.01	0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.03	10.00	14.93	-0.05	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.03	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.02	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.03	34.78	37.24	-0.02	-0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.03	82.61	80.42	0.04	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.93	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.06	0.03	68.18	63.99	0.02	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.03	72.73	66.81	0.03	0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.03	48.00	50.21	-0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.06	0.03	54.55	57.69	0.01	0.00