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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:318.0
Current RPI:318
Expected SOS:333
Current SOS:333
Current Record:8-18
Expected Record:8-18
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-9
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC RPI:261
Expected OOC SOS:297



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-18318.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Missouri (49.0)SECA89-53L0%0.0
11-12Rice (299.0)CUSAA62-63W100%0.0
11-22LSU (83.0)SECA89-66L0%0.0
11-26Western Illinois (290.0)SumH62-52W100%0.0
11-30North Texas (195.0)CUSAA75-61L0%0.0
12-3Arkansas (77.0)SECA111-65L0%0.0
12-7Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH73-74L0%0.0
12-13Mississippi St. (245.0)SECN68-62L0%0.0
12-21Tennessee Martin (332.0)OVCA76-80W100%0.0
1-2McNeese St. (272.0)SlndA69-60L0%0.0
1-4Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndA64-61L0%0.0
1-16Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndH78-85L0%0.0
1-18Lamar (344.0)SlndH91-65W100%0.0
1-23Texas A&M Corpus Chris (249.0)SlndA74-71L0%0.0
1-25Houston Baptist (341.0)SlndA52-60W100%0.0
1-30New Orleans (260.0)SlndH85-90L0%0.0
2-6Central Arkansas (328.0)SlndA85-71L0%0.0
2-8Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA71-54L0%0.0
2-13McNeese St. (272.0)SlndH62-53W100%0.0
2-15Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndH71-66W100%0.0
2-20New Orleans (260.0)SlndA67-58L0%0.0
2-27Northwestern St. (158.0)SlndH83-88L0%0.0
3-1Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH62-75L0%0.0
3-6Sam Houston St. (112.0)SlndA71-54L0%0.0
3-8Lamar (344.0)SlndA62-71W100%0.0
3-12Nicholls St. (262.0)SlndN71-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd26.4226.4233.9033.90-8.51-8.51
Nicholls St.Slnd6.576.5743.4843.48-0.86-0.86
McNeese St.Slnd4.724.7224.0024.00-2.46-2.46
New OrleansSlnd4.724.7230.0030.00-1.89-1.89
Sam Houston St.Slnd4.724.7266.6766.671.571.57
LamarSlnd4.614.6111.5411.54-3.55-3.55
Northwestern St.Slnd2.922.9246.1546.15-0.22-0.22
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.892.8951.8551.850.110.11
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.882.8892.8692.862.472.47
Houston BaptistSlnd2.822.8215.3815.38-1.96-1.96
Oral RobertsSlnd2.822.8242.8642.86-0.40-0.40
Central ArkansasSlnd2.702.7020.8320.83-1.58-1.58
LSUSEC2.242.2458.0658.060.360.36
North TexasCUSA2.172.1742.8642.86-0.31-0.31
ArkansasSEC2.102.1064.5264.520.610.61
RiceCUSA2.062.0618.5218.52-1.30-1.30
MissouriSEC2.042.0465.6265.620.640.64
Tennessee MartinOVC2.022.0221.4321.43-1.15-1.15
Mississippi St.SEC2.012.0140.6240.62-0.38-0.38
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.991.9951.7251.720.070.07
Western IllinoisSum1.921.9226.9226.92-0.89-0.89
Texas A&MSEC0.410.4153.1253.120.030.03
AuburnSEC0.290.2946.6746.67-0.02-0.02
IUPUISum0.280.2810.3410.34-0.22-0.22
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.2578.7978.790.140.14
UTSACUSA0.240.2422.2222.22-0.13-0.13
KentuckySEC0.240.2470.5970.590.100.10
GeorgiaSEC0.240.2459.3859.380.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
MemphisAmer0.210.2170.9770.970.090.09
AlabamaSEC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
VanderbiltSEC0.210.2148.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.200.2031.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2032.1432.14-0.07-0.07
TroySB0.190.1931.0331.03-0.07-0.07
MississippiSEC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.170.1725.8125.81-0.08-0.08
Tennessee TechOVC0.170.1748.3948.39-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
Michigan St.B100.160.1676.4776.470.080.08
MinnesotaB100.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.150.1541.1841.18-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.150.1594.1294.120.130.13
TennesseeSEC0.150.1562.5062.500.040.04
Arkansas St.SB0.140.1456.6756.670.020.02
East CarolinaCUSA0.140.1444.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1331.0331.03-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.130.1363.6463.640.040.04
TulaneCUSA0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.130.1335.7135.71-0.04-0.04
Murray St.OVC0.130.1359.2659.260.020.02
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
IndianaB100.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.110.1157.1457.140.020.02
IPFWSum0.110.1167.7467.740.040.04
Texas TechB120.100.1043.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
TexasB120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
Rhode IslandA100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.1029.0329.03-0.04-0.04
South AlabamaSB0.100.1028.5728.57-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.100.1035.4835.48-0.03-0.03
TowsonCAA0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
ButlerBE0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
UABCUSA0.100.1055.1755.170.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1030.3030.30-0.04-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DenverSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.070.0774.1974.190.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0778.5778.570.040.04
San Diego St.MWC0.070.0787.1087.100.050.05
South DakotaSum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
IdahoWAC0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0746.1546.15-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
UtahP120.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
FIUCUSA0.070.0746.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
OklahomaB120.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0734.6234.62-0.02-0.02
BelmontOVC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0761.2961.290.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Saint LouisA100.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
UMKCWAC0.070.0734.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
High PointBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.040.0433.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.040.0432.1432.14-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.040.0436.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.040.0475.7675.760.020.02
NebraskaB100.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.040.0421.2121.21-0.02-0.02
PacificWCC0.040.0448.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.040.0446.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0467.8667.860.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0443.3343.33-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.040.0461.2961.290.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.040.0456.2556.250.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.030.0386.2186.210.020.02
Iowa St.B120.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WyomingMWC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.030.0310.7110.71-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
MassachusettsA100.030.0375.0075.000.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
NevadaMWC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
West VirginiaB120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01