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Through games of Mar 3, 2015.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:314.8
Current RPI:315
Expected SOS:325
Current SOS:312
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:9-21
Current Conf Record:6-10
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Probability of Auto Bid:0.14%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-12
Current OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC Record:2-10
Expected OOC RPI:310
Expected OOC SOS:207



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-20307.035.97%
9-21317.553.68%
8-22328.010.35%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oklahoma St. (42.3)B12A83-55L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma (17.2)B12A78-53L0%0.0
11-22Western Illinois (328.7)SumA60-57L0%0.0
11-24Tennessee Tech (288.3)OVCA81-62L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee Tech (288.3)OVCH86-68W100%0.0
11-28Tulane (197.6)AmerA71-61L0%0.0
12-2Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA76-57L0%0.0
12-6Southeast Missouri St. (274.8)OVCA63-59L0%0.0
12-16UTEP (77.4)CUSAA80-62L0%0.0
12-19Winthrop (221.0)BSthH81-71W100%0.0
12-22UCF (235.0)AmerA70-65L0%0.0
12-23South Florida (265.8)AmerA78-63L0%0.0
1-5Stephen F. Austin (47.6)SlndA81-66L0%0.0
1-10Houston Baptist (293.2)SlndH87-67W100%0.0
1-12Sam Houston St. (89.0)SlndH59-72L0%0.0
1-17Incarnate Word (143.9)SlndA98-108W100%0.0
1-19Lamar (227.4)SlndA57-50L0%0.0
1-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (216.0)SlndH61-70L0%0.0
1-31Northwestern St. (167.8)SlndH73-88L0%0.0
2-2McNeese St. (278.6)SlndH60-73L0%0.0
2-7Abilene Christian (319.0)SlndA52-65W100%0.0
2-10Central Arkansas (348.8)SlndH83-58W100%0.0
2-14Nicholls St. (324.2)SlndA59-65W100%0.0
2-16McNeese St. (278.6)SlndA74-69L0%0.0
2-21Abilene Christian (319.0)SlndH55-54W100%0.0
2-23New Orleans (325.0)SlndH73-74L0%0.0
2-28Central Arkansas (348.8)SlndA74-72L0%0.0
3-2Northwestern St. (167.8)SlndA92-79L0%0.0
3-5New Orleans (325.0)SlndA0-044%-1.5
3-7Nicholls St. (324.2)SlndH0-081%9.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd26.3326.3831.0333.36-9.99-8.78
Central ArkansasSlnd4.284.194.004.53-3.94-3.81
Northwestern St.Slnd4.294.1652.3851.860.200.16
Nicholls St.Slnd2.574.1422.7325.37-1.40-2.04
McNeese St.Slnd4.284.1431.8234.53-1.56-1.28
New OrleansSlnd2.554.1323.8123.43-1.33-2.19
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.204.0129.1727.61-1.75-1.80
Tennessee TechOVC3.643.3934.6234.62-1.12-1.04
Incarnate WordSlnd2.512.4961.9063.340.600.66
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.492.4752.0054.390.100.22
LamarSlnd2.602.4741.6740.76-0.43-0.46
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.552.4675.0073.351.271.15
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.492.4484.0083.921.691.66
Houston BaptistSlnd2.512.4333.3332.89-0.84-0.83
TulaneAmer1.951.8446.1547.15-0.15-0.10
OklahomaB121.931.7967.8667.800.690.64
South FloridaAmer1.851.7822.2224.45-1.03-0.91
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.921.7838.4638.46-0.44-0.41
UCFAmer1.881.7838.4638.48-0.43-0.41
Oklahoma St.B121.851.7257.6957.120.280.25
UTEPCUSA1.831.7066.6768.180.610.62
GonzagaWCC1.791.6793.1093.101.541.44
Western IllinoisSum1.791.6720.8320.83-1.04-0.97
WinthropBSth1.791.6756.0056.000.210.20
TulsaAmer0.340.2977.7875.110.190.15
HoustonAmer0.270.2735.7136.33-0.08-0.07
MemphisAmer0.300.2658.6256.800.050.04
TCUB120.210.2558.6257.110.040.04
BaylorB120.240.2172.4173.240.110.10
Morehead St.OVC0.230.2144.8344.83-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.230.2078.5778.540.130.12
DenverSum0.180.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.1975.8676.590.090.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.190.1834.4834.48-0.06-0.06
North TexasCUSA0.140.1846.1544.41-0.01-0.02
Texas TechB120.210.1843.3342.03-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.200.1768.9768.630.070.06
Texas A&MSEC0.150.1768.9768.960.060.06
San DiegoWCC0.130.1648.2848.28-0.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1521.4321.43-0.09-0.09
BelmontOVC0.160.1564.2964.290.050.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.160.1562.9662.960.040.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.160.1510.3410.34-0.13-0.12
Iowa St.B120.160.1572.4172.010.070.06
CincinnatiAmer0.160.1468.9768.280.060.05
East CarolinaAmer0.160.1440.7440.41-0.03-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.160.1460.7160.310.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1353.8555.440.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1239.2939.29-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.100.1230.7731.17-0.04-0.05
RiceCUSA0.110.1232.0031.15-0.04-0.05
UCLAP120.100.1260.0060.840.020.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.130.1251.8551.850.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.130.1285.7185.710.090.09
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.1240.0040.00-0.03-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.130.1259.2659.260.020.02
North FloridaASun0.130.1262.0762.070.030.03
KansasB120.100.1180.0078.510.060.06
Kansas St.B120.130.1150.0048.800.00-0.00
TexasB120.130.1160.0060.870.030.02
West VirginiaB120.090.1173.3373.220.040.05
IndianaB100.080.1063.3362.760.020.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.1033.3333.33-0.02-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.110.1079.3178.090.060.05
LSUSEC0.110.1072.4171.340.050.04
South DakotaSum0.110.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.110.1039.2939.32-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.070.1044.8343.31-0.01-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0953.5753.570.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0989.6687.990.060.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.110.0950.0050.330.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.110.0946.1544.69-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.100.0939.2940.08-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.100.0964.2964.290.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.100.0925.9327.44-0.05-0.04
NebraskaB100.110.0946.4344.97-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.100.0951.8551.850.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0941.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.100.0938.4639.08-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.100.0961.5461.540.020.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0965.3865.380.030.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.0942.8645.16-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.100.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.0957.1457.140.010.01
MissouriSEC0.100.0927.5927.74-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.100.0955.1754.370.010.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.0968.0066.540.040.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.04
UTSACUSA0.100.0944.0045.87-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.100.0943.3342.98-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.0853.5752.310.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.070.0776.0075.230.040.03
IPFWSum0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
IUPUISum0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0760.0059.400.020.01
MichiganB100.040.0746.4347.81-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0767.8667.860.030.02
ToledoMAC0.070.0763.3363.000.020.02
CampbellBSth0.070.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.070.0651.8551.850.000.00
High PointBSth0.070.0670.3770.370.030.03
LibertyBSth0.070.0614.8114.81-0.05-0.05
LongwoodBSth0.070.0624.1424.14-0.04-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.070.0622.2222.22-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.070.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.070.0623.3323.33-0.04-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.070.0624.0024.52-0.04-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.070.0646.1547.66-0.01-0.00
Texas St.SB0.070.0641.6741.70-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.070.0683.3382.770.040.04
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0658.6260.310.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0635.4836.31-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.070.0674.0775.610.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.070.0624.1423.75-0.04-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
DuquesneA100.070.0634.6233.87-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0628.5728.70-0.03-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.060.0650.0048.850.00-0.00
USCP120.060.0637.9337.13-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0670.3768.760.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0620.0020.58-0.04-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.060.0624.0024.99-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0650.0049.980.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0670.8368.840.030.02
XavierBE0.070.0660.0060.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0642.8642.03-0.01-0.01
New MexicoMWC0.070.0648.2848.80-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.060.0634.4836.59-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0650.0050.780.000.00
St. John'sBE0.060.0667.8665.690.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0689.6689.940.050.04
BYUWCC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0662.9664.240.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
PortlandWCC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.060.0671.4371.430.030.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0626.9226.01-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.060.0653.5754.400.000.00
Washington St.P120.060.0642.8641.44-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.040.0350.0048.760.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0355.5655.060.000.00
AkronMAC0.040.0358.6257.940.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.040.0360.8761.600.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.040.0353.5753.570.000.00
IdahoBSky0.040.0344.0044.87-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.040.0359.2659.260.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0337.9337.48-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0355.1753.700.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.0328.0029.86-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0369.2369.520.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.040.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0366.6766.640.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.040.0353.5754.430.000.00
WoffordSC0.040.0379.3179.310.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0328.5729.92-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0325.9325.32-0.02-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0376.9276.720.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0367.8668.360.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0342.8645.02-0.00-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.0090.000.030.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0335.7134.54-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.030.0357.1456.750.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0348.1548.34-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0344.4443.51-0.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0315.3814.77-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.030.0370.0069.370.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0344.0043.23-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0344.8346.88-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0382.1481.290.020.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0340.7440.34-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0329.6328.86-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.5265.850.010.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0365.5265.390.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.030.0333.3331.66-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.0060.240.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.5779.280.020.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0342.8641.91-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0357.1455.540.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0340.0040.15-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0361.5458.940.010.00