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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:204.8
Current RPI:203
Expected SOS:316
Current SOS:302
Current Record:9-8
Expected Record:15-13
Current Conf Record:6-1
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-6
Current OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC Record:3-7
Expected OOC RPI:236
Expected OOC SOS:253



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8129.50.21%
19-9145.31.65%
18-10163.66.74%
17-11180.116.01%
16-12196.223.46%
15-13211.723.85%
14-14226.417.05%
13-15241.37.71%
12-16254.92.66%
11-17271.80.59%
10-18287.20.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Tulane (107.4)AmerA89-66L0%0.0
11-16Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBA86-75L0%0.0
11-19Valparaiso (136.7)MVCA83-50L0%0.0
11-21Kent St. (186.5)MACA66-70W100%0.0
11-24Samford (261.3)SCA71-77W100%0.0
11-25Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)SWACN73-59W100%0.0
12-12UCF (67.3)AmerA61-53L0%0.0
12-16Grambling St. (286.7)SWACH67-68L0%0.0
12-19Louisiana Lafayette (62.4)SBA82-74L0%0.0
12-21Notre Dame (57.5)ACCA86-50L0%0.0
12-28Stephen F. Austin (122.6)SlndH73-62W100%0.0
12-31Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndA69-73W100%0.0
1-6Abilene Christian (228.2)SlndA70-72W100%0.0
1-10Lamar (227.8)SlndA58-63W100%0.0
1-13McNeese St. (297.6)SlndH62-71L0%0.0
1-17Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndH85-69W100%0.0
1-20Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndH85-58W100%0.0
1-24Sam Houston St. (220.9)SlndA0-034%-4.7
1-27Nicholls St. (199.3)SlndA0-038%-3.3
1-31Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.4)SlndH0-078%8.5
2-3Central Arkansas (236.8)SlndH0-059%2.5
2-7Incarnate Word (338.3)SlndA0-067%5.0
2-10McNeese St. (297.6)SlndA0-060%2.7
2-14New Orleans (219.1)SlndH0-064%4.0
2-17Abilene Christian (228.2)SlndH0-065%4.2
2-24Northwestern St. (337.9)SlndA0-074%7.3
2-28New Orleans (219.1)SlndA0-041%-2.4
3-3Nicholls St. (199.3)SlndH0-061%3.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd26.4626.3260.4960.525.555.54
Nicholls St.Slnd0.634.4850.0051.570.000.14
Northwestern St.Slnd3.334.447.6914.99-2.82-3.11
New OrleansSlnd0.624.4237.5045.05-0.16-0.44
McNeese St.Slnd3.304.4123.0827.88-1.78-1.95
Central ArkansasSlnd3.124.3947.3751.32-0.160.12
Abilene ChristianSlnd3.414.3156.2555.430.430.47
Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.232.6985.7181.902.311.72
Houston BaptistSlnd3.222.646.2520.09-2.82-1.58
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.272.637.6923.32-0.23-1.40
Incarnate WordSlnd0.372.627.6919.54-0.31-1.60
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.442.6243.7548.44-0.06-0.08
LamarSlnd3.102.6053.3356.960.210.36
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.142.0682.3580.682.031.26
Louisiana MonroeSB3.301.9821.4326.20-1.89-0.94
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC3.101.910.0011.01-3.10-1.49
TulaneAmer2.941.8861.1156.450.650.24
Grambling St.SWAC3.041.8833.3342.19-1.01-0.29
ValparaisoMVC3.101.8547.0649.62-0.18-0.01
Kent St.MAC3.101.8547.0646.40-0.18-0.13
SamfordSC3.101.8529.4133.83-1.28-0.60
UCFAmer2.941.8266.6759.530.980.35
Notre DameACC2.941.7961.1159.710.650.35
SMUAmer0.440.2970.0070.630.170.12
Little RockSB0.330.2822.2225.26-0.18-0.14
HoustonAmer0.180.2778.9572.990.110.12
Texas St.SB0.350.2657.8950.210.060.00
South AlabamaSB0.080.2350.0045.900.00-0.02
MemphisAmer0.240.2265.0058.490.070.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.310.2112.5025.47-0.23-0.10
Arkansas St.SB0.270.2027.7831.12-0.12-0.07
TulsaAmer0.240.1855.0053.290.020.01
SouthernSWAC0.310.1827.7840.97-0.14-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.080.1745.0045.02-0.01-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.180.1538.8943.43-0.04-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.240.1577.7871.650.130.07
Alabama A&MSWAC0.240.1510.5316.75-0.19-0.10
LipscombASun0.170.1352.9459.360.010.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.360.1327.7838.13-0.16-0.03
TroySB0.000.1335.2942.760.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.180.1360.0062.030.040.03
BaylorB120.070.1361.1156.090.020.02
LSUSEC0.260.1361.1153.160.060.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.1358.8249.760.02-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.160.1261.1158.750.040.02
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1242.1132.48-0.02-0.04
Morehead St.OVC0.150.1223.5328.70-0.08-0.05
South FloridaAmer0.080.1235.0026.14-0.02-0.06
TempleAmer0.150.1252.6351.730.010.00
Wichita St.Amer0.080.1278.9577.360.040.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.150.1216.6724.29-0.10-0.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.1230.0036.48-0.03-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.1221.0539.47-0.04-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.150.1221.0544.26-0.09-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.110.1127.7829.11-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.200.1011.1117.69-0.16-0.07
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1045.0041.34-0.02-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.180.1044.4446.64-0.02-0.01
PittsburghACC0.110.1040.0030.87-0.02-0.04
UtahP120.180.1061.1158.950.040.02
MississippiSEC0.080.1052.6345.860.00-0.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1064.7166.850.000.03
St. John'sBE0.080.1047.3742.18-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.080.1061.1164.130.020.03
SeattleWAC0.080.1057.8954.500.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.080.0966.6765.530.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.0952.6350.250.010.00
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0962.5058.700.020.02
ClemsonACC0.240.0984.2173.210.160.04
MercerSC0.160.0944.4454.89-0.020.01
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0989.4785.520.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.150.0952.6347.390.01-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.230.0952.6343.120.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.160.0947.0641.45-0.01-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.150.0980.0075.050.090.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.0927.7831.67-0.07-0.03
AkronMAC0.080.0947.0644.91-0.00-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.110.0743.7554.09-0.010.01
OklahomaB120.110.0777.7867.900.060.03
San Diego St.MWC0.110.0758.8262.830.020.02
TexasB120.110.0763.1657.620.030.01
UTEPCUSA0.090.0733.3334.11-0.03-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0761.9065.160.000.02
UTSACUSA0.090.0741.1839.65-0.02-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.090.0737.5031.76-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.090.0743.7545.34-0.01-0.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0729.4127.740.00-0.03
Texas TechB120.090.0778.9571.810.050.03
UMBCAE0.000.0758.8258.360.000.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0711.1117.96-0.07-0.04
VillanovaBE0.000.0794.7490.310.000.05
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0768.4270.810.000.03
Appalachian St.SB0.180.0733.3337.22-0.06-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0766.6765.360.000.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.180.0770.0068.220.070.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.180.0652.6355.290.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0633.3332.96-0.03-0.02
MissouriSEC0.180.0666.6763.200.060.02
DuquesneA100.170.0670.0058.100.070.01
Michigan St.B100.160.0685.0083.180.110.04
Virginia TechACC0.090.0668.4257.780.030.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0665.0057.870.020.01
ChattanoogaSC0.080.0622.2228.59-0.05-0.03
DrakeMVC0.080.0655.0049.070.01-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0677.7879.160.050.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0652.6347.360.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.080.0666.6768.500.030.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0647.3745.870.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0644.4446.10-0.01-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.160.0670.0068.420.070.02
Northern IowaMVC0.080.0647.0652.51-0.000.00
The CitadelSC0.080.0618.7518.40-0.05-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0668.7567.640.000.02
VMISC0.000.0625.0024.170.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0638.8935.35-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.080.0668.7563.620.030.02
Oklahoma St.B120.160.0668.4254.090.060.00
IowaB100.160.0647.6244.03-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.160.0645.0045.50-0.02-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0668.4255.060.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0672.2274.900.000.03
CaliforniaP120.070.0636.8431.12-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.080.0673.6869.610.040.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0668.4257.770.030.01
OhioMAC0.080.0647.0648.44-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.070.0665.0063.830.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
UCLAP120.070.0665.0062.040.020.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.0670.0071.230.060.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0473.6871.550.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.0480.9583.260.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0421.0524.710.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0466.6755.930.000.00
TCUB120.100.0373.6865.590.050.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.090.0329.4133.22-0.04-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0366.6765.620.000.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.0310.0019.62-0.08-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.100.0317.6517.23-0.06-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0372.2258.940.040.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0355.5656.710.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.0344.4450.31-0.010.00
UC DavisBW0.090.0358.8262.450.020.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0366.6766.010.000.01
BelmontOVC0.090.0371.4374.650.040.02
DetroitHorz0.090.0321.0525.98-0.05-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.090.0370.0060.460.030.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.0344.4448.91-0.01-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0355.0050.370.010.00
PurdueB100.080.0390.4888.380.070.02
RichmondA100.080.0331.5834.35-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0327.7834.50-0.04-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0317.6523.89-0.05-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0322.2227.33-0.05-0.01
WyomingMWC0.080.0361.1156.830.020.00
AlabamaSEC0.080.0368.4258.990.030.01
AlbanyAE0.080.0370.0068.050.030.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.080.0350.0052.440.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.030.003.12-0.08-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0320.0023.36-0.05-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0321.4326.21-0.04-0.01
DelawareCAA0.080.0347.3743.04-0.00-0.00
DePaulBE0.080.0342.1134.32-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.000.0389.4785.190.000.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.0346.6746.980.00-0.00
FordhamA100.080.0331.5829.06-0.03-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0341.1843.41-0.01-0.00
IndianaB100.080.0357.8950.680.010.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0340.0042.57-0.02-0.00
LouisvilleACC0.080.0377.7869.360.040.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0376.4769.020.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0342.1144.97-0.01-0.00
NebraskaB100.080.0366.6759.780.030.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0318.7536.76-0.05-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.080.0363.1663.180.020.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0341.1839.13-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0357.8950.810.010.00
South DakotaSum0.080.0373.6872.360.040.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0333.3335.19-0.03-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.92-0.03-0.01
SyracuseACC0.080.0368.4261.270.030.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0366.6767.690.030.01
VCUA100.080.0360.0059.690.020.01
VirginiaACC0.000.0394.4485.440.000.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0344.4441.150.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0384.2178.170.050.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0352.9452.230.000.00
William & MaryCAA0.080.0364.7159.980.020.01
Wright St.Horz0.080.0368.4269.240.030.01
XavierBE0.080.0385.7180.080.060.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0321.0523.50-0.05-0.02
BYUWCC0.080.0380.9576.230.050.02
UNLVMWC0.080.0373.6865.280.040.01