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Through games of Nov 22, 2014.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:298.9
Current RPI:339
Expected SOS:318
Current SOS:317
Current Record:0-3
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-10
Current OOC Record:0-3
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:153



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10143.00.01%
18-11137.00.01%
17-12160.60.09%
16-13188.30.49%
15-14207.21.38%
14-15227.33.25%
13-16248.26.21%
12-17267.511.05%
11-18285.115.57%
10-19302.417.49%
9-20316.016.78%
8-21327.312.99%
7-22335.88.19%
6-23341.74.11%
5-24345.91.66%
4-25348.20.53%
3-26349.30.15%
2-27350.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Oklahoma St. (84.3)B12A83-55L0%0.0
11-16Oklahoma (61.4)B12A78-53L0%0.0
11-22Western Illinois (286.8)SumA60-57L0%0.0
11-26Tennessee Tech (270.3)OVCH0-054%1.3
11-28Tulane (255.2)AmerA0-024%-8.3
12-2Gonzaga (14.1)WCCA0-01%-30.4
12-6Southeast Missouri St. (269.3)OVCA0-028%-6.9
12-16UTEP (85.7)CUSAA0-07%-17.9
12-19Winthrop (166.8)BSthH0-036%-4.3
12-22UCF (198.7)AmerA0-016%-11.8
12-23South Florida (166.2)AmerA0-015%-12.6
1-5Stephen F. Austin (112.8)SlndA0-09%-16.2
1-10Houston Baptist (321.6)SlndH0-072%6.8
1-12Sam Houston St. (145.0)SlndH0-029%-6.7
1-17Incarnate Word (208.9)SlndA0-024%-8.4
1-19Lamar (294.2)SlndA0-039%-3.3
1-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (230.5)SlndH0-046%-1.2
1-31Northwestern St. (190.9)SlndH0-039%-3.3
2-2McNeese St. (267.0)SlndH0-053%0.9
2-7Abilene Christian (322.6)SlndA0-047%-0.9
2-10Central Arkansas (336.0)SlndH0-076%8.6
2-14Nicholls St. (281.8)SlndA0-037%-4.0
2-16McNeese St. (267.0)SlndA0-030%-6.3
2-21Abilene Christian (322.6)SlndH0-070%6.2
2-23New Orleans (292.0)SlndH0-062%3.8
2-28Central Arkansas (336.0)SlndA0-055%1.4
3-2Northwestern St. (190.9)SlndA0-019%-10.5
3-5New Orleans (292.0)SlndA0-039%-3.4
3-7Nicholls St. (281.8)SlndH0-061%3.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd34.7226.350.0036.87-34.72-6.92
Central ArkansasSlnd0.004.330.0018.83-0.00-2.70
Northwestern St.Slnd0.004.310.0051.44-0.000.12
Nicholls St.Slnd0.004.290.0033.39-0.00-1.42
McNeese St.Slnd0.004.280.0043.72-0.00-0.54
New OrleansSlnd0.004.280.0032.34-0.00-1.51
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.004.160.0027.73-0.00-1.85
Incarnate WordSlnd0.002.59100.0051.240.000.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.002.570.0050.64-0.000.03
LamarSlnd0.002.560.0032.96-0.00-0.87
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.002.5566.6767.880.000.91
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.530.0066.16-0.000.82
Houston BaptistSlnd0.002.520.0025.61-0.00-1.23
TulaneAmer0.001.8850.0033.590.00-0.62
OklahomaB1216.671.850.0056.57-16.670.24
South FloridaAmer0.001.85100.0044.680.00-0.20
UCFAmer0.001.84100.0045.360.00-0.17
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.001.8233.3340.77-0.00-0.34
Tennessee TechOVC0.001.7950.0037.450.00-0.45
Oklahoma St.B1216.671.79100.0050.8416.670.03
UTEPCUSA0.001.76100.0068.250.000.64
GonzagaWCC0.001.72100.0086.750.001.27
Western IllinoisSum16.671.720.0029.98-16.67-0.69
WinthropBSth0.001.7250.0060.210.000.35
HoustonAmer0.000.28100.0065.060.000.08
TulsaAmer0.000.2866.6753.050.000.02
MemphisAmer0.000.280.0066.25-0.000.09
TCUB120.000.26100.0054.550.000.02
BaylorB120.000.22100.0069.300.000.09
SMUAmer0.000.2150.0068.880.000.08
DenverSum0.000.2050.0061.440.000.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.2075.0071.100.000.09
North TexasCUSA0.000.20100.0045.790.00-0.02
Texas TechB120.000.1966.6746.900.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.1850.0053.100.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1766.6765.320.000.05
San DiegoWCC0.000.1666.6748.330.00-0.01
Iowa St.B120.000.16100.0061.830.000.04
Morehead St.OVC0.000.1625.0059.16-0.000.03
CincinnatiAmer0.000.15100.0063.820.000.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.150.0033.55-0.00-0.05
ConnecticutAmer0.000.15100.0076.190.000.08
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.140.0047.90-0.00-0.01
RiceCUSA0.000.1333.3327.11-0.00-0.06
UCLAP120.000.13100.0062.510.000.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.130.0031.61-0.00-0.05
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.1366.6746.620.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.130.0045.18-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.1250.0061.790.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.1266.6754.240.000.01
TexasB120.000.12100.0081.740.000.08
West VirginiaB120.000.12100.0067.570.000.04
IndianaB100.000.10100.0062.040.000.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1025.0049.94-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.10100.0073.660.000.05
LSUSEC0.000.1075.0060.550.000.02
South DakotaSum0.000.100.0042.57-0.00-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1050.0049.760.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.100.0028.19-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.000.1033.3349.42-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.10100.0045.350.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.1050.0041.630.00-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.1050.0041.720.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.100.0031.23-0.00-0.04
BelmontOVC0.000.1066.6773.760.000.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.100.0033.25-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.10100.0064.090.000.03
Murray St.OVC0.000.1050.0071.840.000.04
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.98-0.00-0.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.1050.0033.700.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.100.0028.50-0.00-0.04
UTSACUSA0.000.1050.0037.430.00-0.02
NebraskaB100.000.1066.6752.320.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.10100.0062.040.000.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.780.090.0039.15-2.78-0.02
PacificWCC2.780.0950.0029.910.00-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.090.0038.59-0.00-0.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0950.0046.250.00-0.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0966.6749.590.00-0.00
Arkansas St.SB0.000.090.0042.47-0.00-0.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0950.0054.970.000.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.090.0063.56-0.000.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0933.3327.10-0.00-0.04
CreightonBE4.170.09100.0055.854.170.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.07100.0046.020.00-0.01
IPFWSum0.000.0750.0063.720.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.0750.0031.810.00-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0750.0062.580.000.02
MichiganB100.000.07100.0064.370.000.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0750.0044.810.00-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0733.3349.33-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.000.0733.3364.19-0.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.07100.0084.890.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.000.0725.0040.91-0.00-0.01
UMKCWAC0.000.0733.3355.40-0.000.01
CampbellBSth0.000.070.0030.19-0.00-0.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0766.6768.980.000.03
High PointBSth0.000.0775.0055.790.000.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0733.3335.41-0.00-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.000.0733.3322.74-0.00-0.04
PresbyterianBSth0.000.070.0024.77-0.00-0.03
RadfordBSth0.000.0733.3348.73-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0733.3345.63-0.00-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.780.0725.0035.65-1.39-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0750.0052.290.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.07100.0030.790.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0766.6748.850.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.06100.0064.500.000.02
Boise St.MWC0.000.0675.0063.040.000.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0650.0044.170.00-0.01
DuquesneA100.000.06100.0052.610.000.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0625.0066.02-0.000.02
North FloridaASun0.000.060.0047.13-0.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0032.69-0.00-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0650.0053.430.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0037.22-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.060.0034.98-0.00-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0650.0045.600.00-0.01
ArizonaP120.000.06100.0069.320.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0018.48-0.00-0.04
Washington St.P120.000.0633.3327.58-0.00-0.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0058.780.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.06100.0061.500.000.01
UABCUSA0.000.060.0043.18-0.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.540.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0633.3354.50-0.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.0633.3346.79-0.00-0.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.060.0046.56-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0650.0053.000.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.06100.0070.030.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0675.0059.530.000.01
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.660.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0071.830.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0650.0044.850.00-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.06100.0050.830.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0633.3336.99-0.00-0.02
NorthwesternB100.000.04100.0042.120.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0475.0057.060.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0366.6763.730.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.030.0063.44-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3346.93-0.00-0.00
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0047.120.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.000.0366.6744.970.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0366.6740.400.00-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0350.0051.120.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0041.59-0.00-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.030.0031.92-0.00-0.01
BradleyMVC0.000.030.0027.82-0.00-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0333.3335.92-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.03100.0070.030.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.030.0046.61-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.03100.0062.400.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0366.6768.230.000.01
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0325.0031.12-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.000.03100.0043.160.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.03100.0062.070.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0042.80-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0333.3353.79-0.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0366.6751.200.000.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6755.980.000.00
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0350.0051.860.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.03100.0072.420.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.03100.0080.090.000.02
Saint LouisA100.000.03100.0065.140.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0042.680.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0375.0053.210.000.00
USCP120.000.0350.0027.780.00-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0333.3341.77-0.00-0.01
WoffordSC0.000.0375.0075.140.000.02
XavierBE0.000.03100.0077.070.000.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.030.0037.13-0.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0350.0053.040.000.00
George MasonA100.000.0325.0019.94-0.00-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz2.780.030.0033.14-2.78-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.03100.0049.460.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0350.0054.290.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.030.0032.07-0.00-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.03100.0051.050.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.030.0048.20-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.000.0350.0037.760.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0366.6758.190.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0350.0037.110.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.030.0038.72-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.03100.0052.540.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0366.6762.810.000.01
JacksonvilleASun0.000.030.0025.03-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0059.190.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.03100.0056.980.000.00