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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Southeastern Louisiana

Conference:Slnd
Expected RPI:331.0
Current RPI:331
Expected SOS:343
Current SOS:343
Current Record:10-21
Expected Record:10-21
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-10
Current OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC Record:0-11
Expected OOC RPI:348
Expected OOC SOS:209



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-21331.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southeastern Louisiana.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13TCU (174.0)B12A90-77L0%0.0
11-16Texas A&M (18.0)SECA100-58L0%0.0
11-22Nebraska (165.0)B10A92-65L0%0.0
11-24Cincinnati (48.0)AmerA64-49L0%0.0
11-27Gardner Webb (210.0)BSthN77-68L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas Pine Bluff (311.0)SWACN62-60L0%0.0
12-4Southern (186.0)SWACH69-73L0%0.0
12-13Florida St. (82.0)ACCA75-58L0%0.0
12-15Florida A&M (349.0)MEACA67-64L0%0.0
12-21Georgia Tech (69.0)ACCA75-62L0%0.0
12-30Jackson St. (221.0)SWACA89-66L0%0.0
1-4Stephen F. Austin (61.0)SlndH69-89L0%0.0
1-9Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndA77-58L0%0.0
1-11Sam Houston St. (178.0)SlndA70-63L0%0.0
1-16Incarnate Word (163.0)SlndH71-75L0%0.0
1-18Lamar (337.0)SlndH98-70W100%0.0
1-26Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA73-63L0%0.0
1-30Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndA91-76L0%0.0
2-1McNeese St. (341.0)SlndH82-80W100%0.0
2-6Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndH81-60W100%0.0
2-9Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndA88-72L0%0.0
2-13Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH69-61W100%0.0
2-15McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA76-79W100%0.0
2-21Abilene Christian (321.0)SlndA91-80L0%0.0
2-24New Orleans (343.0)SlndH93-81W100%0.0
2-27Central Arkansas (339.0)SlndH75-56W100%0.0
2-29Northwestern St. (344.0)SlndH84-82W100%0.0
3-3New Orleans (343.0)SlndA60-61W100%0.0
3-5Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndA64-45L0%0.0
3-9New Orleans (343.0)SlndN84-74W100%0.0
3-10Houston Baptist (224.0)SlndN73-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southeastern Louisiana's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Southeastern Louisiana's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Southeastern Louisiana.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd26.4026.4033.0633.06-8.95-8.95
New OrleansSlnd5.615.6129.1729.17-2.34-2.34
Nicholls St.Slnd4.194.1924.1424.14-2.17-2.17
McNeese St.Slnd4.104.1029.1729.17-1.71-1.71
Central ArkansasSlnd4.064.0623.0823.08-2.18-2.18
Northwestern St.Slnd4.044.0418.1818.18-2.57-2.57
Houston BaptistSlnd4.024.0240.7440.74-0.74-0.74
Abilene ChristianSlnd4.014.0132.0032.00-1.44-1.44
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.552.5575.8675.861.321.32
Sam Houston St.Slnd2.512.5150.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.502.5081.4881.481.571.57
LamarSlnd2.442.4428.0028.00-1.07-1.07
Incarnate WordSlnd2.432.4354.1754.170.200.20
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.761.7621.8821.88-0.99-0.99
Jackson St.SWAC1.741.7451.6151.610.060.06
SouthernSWAC1.741.7460.0060.000.350.35
TCUB121.731.7334.3834.38-0.54-0.54
NebraskaB101.721.7245.4545.45-0.16-0.16
Florida St.ACC1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Florida A&MMEAC1.671.6719.2319.23-1.03-1.03
CincinnatiAmer1.661.6667.7467.740.590.59
Texas A&MSEC1.641.6475.7675.760.840.84
Georgia TechACC1.641.6456.2556.250.200.20
Gardner WebbBSth1.611.6144.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.220.2222.5822.58-0.12-0.12
Texas SouthernSWAC0.210.2156.2556.250.030.03
OklahomaB120.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.200.2022.8622.86-0.11-0.11
TulaneAmer0.190.1935.2935.29-0.06-0.06
BaylorB120.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.180.1841.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.180.1835.7135.71-0.05-0.05
ArkansasSEC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
LSUSEC0.160.1657.5857.580.020.02
SMUAmer0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
MassachusettsA100.150.1543.7543.75-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
NorthwesternB100.140.1462.5062.500.030.03
HoustonAmer0.130.1370.9770.970.060.06
PittsburghACC0.130.1364.5264.520.040.04
Virginia TechACC0.130.1357.5857.580.020.02
RutgersB100.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
MemphisAmer0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.120.1244.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
RiceCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.120.1287.1087.100.090.09
Bowling GreenMAC0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
DuquesneA100.110.1148.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.110.1116.6716.67-0.07-0.07
Arizona St.P120.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
TexasB120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
SyracuseACC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
MississippiSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Texas St.SB0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.090.0940.0040.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0934.4834.48-0.03-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
CampbellBSth0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0857.6957.690.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
North TexasCUSA0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0822.2222.22-0.04-0.04
HawaiiBW0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
IowaB100.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Boston CollegeACC0.070.0721.8821.88-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.070.0764.5264.520.020.02
VCUA100.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
Notre DameACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
VirginiaACC0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
FloridaSEC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Kansas St.B120.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
MissouriSEC0.070.0732.2632.26-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
DrakeMVC0.060.0620.0020.00-0.04-0.04
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
OaklandHorz0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
PortlandWCC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
RiderMAAC0.060.0639.3939.39-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ColgatePat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.030.0318.5218.52-0.02-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VMISC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
WyomingMWC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UCFAmer0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
CornellIvy0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Green BayHorz0.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
CreightonBE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
IllinoisB100.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01