live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Feb 8, 2016.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:94.2
Current RPI:112
Expected SOS:118
Current SOS:118
Current Record:14-9
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:7-3
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:118



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
22-964.04.75%
21-1074.918.48%
20-1186.930.20%
19-12100.626.48%
18-13116.114.43%
17-14132.34.63%
16-15148.30.97%
15-16164.00.05%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Southern (195.0)SWACH86-57W100%0.0
11-15New Mexico St. (118.6)WACA74-83W100%0.0
11-18Loyola Chicago (238.8)MVCH75-51W100%0.0
11-21USC (20.7)P12A90-82L0%0.0
11-25Nicholls St. (323.8)SlndH75-63W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (150.2)SumH91-75W100%0.0
12-5Purdue (17.8)B10A70-58L0%0.0
12-12Northern Iowa (114.5)MVCH76-57W100%0.0
12-16New Mexico St. (118.6)WACH79-61W100%0.0
12-19Rice (294.0)CUSAH89-90L0%0.0
12-22Auburn (159.9)SECN78-83L0%0.0
12-23BYU (72.0)WCCN96-66L0%0.0
12-25Washington St. (183.8)P12N82-59L0%0.0
12-30Nevada (134.6)MWCH88-76W100%0.0
1-2Fresno St. (124.1)MWCA62-77W100%0.0
1-9Utah St. (163.3)MWCH77-59W100%0.0
1-12UNLV (120.5)MWCA86-74L0%0.0
1-16Wyoming (179.8)MWCH68-70L0%0.0
1-23San Jose St. (295.3)MWCA64-83W100%0.0
1-27Air Force (231.9)MWCH84-55W100%0.0
1-30Boise St. (88.3)MWCA83-88W100%0.0
2-2UNLV (120.5)MWCH87-83W100%0.0
2-6San Diego St. (48.7)MWCA78-71L0%0.0
2-9Utah St. (163.3)MWCA0-062%3.2
2-13San Jose St. (295.3)MWCH0-094%16.9
2-17Boise St. (88.3)MWCH0-066%4.4
2-20Air Force (231.9)MWCA0-083%10.4
2-23Colorado St. (180.3)MWCA0-060%2.6
2-27Fresno St. (124.1)MWCH0-075%7.5
3-1San Diego St. (48.7)MWCH0-056%1.8
3-5Nevada (134.6)MWCA0-058%2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC26.3226.3858.5961.724.526.18
Air ForceMWC2.784.0847.6240.68-0.13-0.76
Fresno St.MWC2.784.0865.0063.140.831.07
Utah St.MWC2.724.0747.3748.98-0.14-0.08
San Diego St.MWC2.694.0571.4372.081.151.79
Boise St.MWC2.694.0266.6765.880.901.28
NevadaMWC2.624.0257.8957.090.410.57
UNLVMWC4.764.0250.0055.580.000.45
San Jose St.MWC2.584.0126.3224.33-1.22-2.06
New Mexico St.WAC4.493.3471.4373.901.931.60
WyomingMWC2.832.5840.9140.43-0.52-0.49
Colorado St.MWC0.612.5552.3850.780.030.04
Northern IowaMVC2.321.7556.5256.970.300.24
Washington St.P122.361.7233.3329.55-0.79-0.70
BYUWCC2.271.7065.2268.460.690.63
Oral RobertsSum2.271.6740.9142.64-0.41-0.25
Nicholls St.Slnd2.221.6719.0521.82-1.38-0.94
RiceCUSA2.231.6725.0027.16-1.11-0.76
USCP122.271.6777.2772.151.240.74
Loyola ChicagoMVC2.221.6745.4544.15-0.20-0.20
Texas SouthernSWAC2.221.6447.6255.98-0.110.20
AuburnSEC2.171.6138.1034.41-0.52-0.50
PurdueB102.171.6178.2675.731.230.83
ArizonaP120.400.3379.1778.350.230.19
Wichita St.MVC0.290.2572.7376.360.130.13
OregonP120.250.2582.6179.220.160.14
ColoradoP120.240.2569.5765.360.100.08
Montana St.BSky0.260.2340.9143.71-0.05-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.240.2339.1337.73-0.05-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.200.2231.8229.13-0.07-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.290.2033.3334.94-0.10-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.190.2066.6767.690.060.07
UTEPCUSA0.290.2052.1751.940.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.240.1920.0022.32-0.14-0.11
SeattleWAC0.150.1747.6245.00-0.01-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1714.2915.45-0.11-0.12
UC IrvineBW0.200.1772.7371.620.090.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1730.4331.18-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.240.1782.6181.140.160.11
Long Beach St.BW0.190.1745.4551.34-0.020.00
DrakeMVC0.190.1721.7423.66-0.11-0.09
PacificWCC0.200.1725.0028.89-0.10-0.07
Oregon St.P120.150.1761.9056.420.040.02
CaliforniaP120.150.1765.2262.840.050.04
BradleyMVC0.190.1612.5012.85-0.14-0.12
EvansvilleMVC0.140.1675.0076.230.070.09
Illinois St.MVC0.190.1654.1750.940.020.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.1672.0070.510.100.07
UtahP120.140.1669.5767.490.060.06
Arizona St.P120.240.1654.1751.640.020.01
UCLAP120.290.1656.5253.240.040.01
DenverSum0.140.1454.1751.800.010.01
HawaiiBW0.200.1484.2181.700.140.09
Cal PolyBW0.200.1430.0034.56-0.08-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.190.1452.1751.960.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.140.1439.1338.57-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.090.1440.0038.51-0.02-0.03
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1454.5550.100.010.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1263.6462.150.040.03
MontanaBSky0.100.1257.8962.300.020.03
ToledoMAC0.150.1259.0960.100.030.02
UMKCWAC0.090.1228.5732.70-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.090.124.357.73-0.09-0.10
IdahoBSky0.150.1154.5554.950.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.200.1150.0049.770.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.1128.0030.74-0.06-0.04
South DakotaSum0.190.1141.6741.24-0.03-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1168.1866.690.050.04
LamarSlnd0.150.1130.0029.25-0.06-0.05
UC DavisBW0.100.1140.0036.76-0.02-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.200.1133.3333.02-0.07-0.04
Incarnate WordSlnd0.200.1152.9452.160.010.00
PepperdineWCC0.140.1156.5257.280.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.200.119.0917.12-0.16-0.07
WashingtonP120.140.1165.2261.090.040.02
Idaho St.BSky0.100.0945.0046.12-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.100.0965.0069.270.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0956.5256.320.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.100.0931.5837.72-0.04-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.090.0927.7829.14-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.140.0872.7366.460.070.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.0860.0060.100.020.02
IUPUISum0.090.0840.0039.79-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.0810.0013.14-0.08-0.06
UC RiversideBW0.150.0845.8341.65-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.100.0817.6526.67-0.06-0.04
UTSACUSA0.150.0813.6413.62-0.11-0.06
IndianaB100.100.0879.1774.020.060.04
Michigan St.B100.050.0883.3383.030.030.05
Ohio St.B100.090.0858.3354.120.020.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0856.5262.790.010.02
GonzagaWCC0.090.0878.2676.800.050.04
SouthernSWAC0.100.0861.9065.300.020.02
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0872.2275.580.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.090.0856.5260.010.010.02
DukeACC0.050.0675.0071.700.030.03
MarquetteBE0.050.0662.5056.200.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0635.0032.27-0.02-0.02
IPFWSum0.090.0670.8368.570.040.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0677.2776.870.030.03
FIUCUSA0.050.0640.9145.29-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.100.0686.9682.610.070.04
LSUSEC0.100.0665.2260.250.030.01
South CarolinaSEC0.100.0686.3679.140.070.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0635.0034.72-0.01-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0690.4886.880.040.04
ArmyPat0.050.0654.1754.570.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0621.0527.79-0.03-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0634.7840.93-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.069.0912.25-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0643.4842.00-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.100.0669.5766.530.040.02
KansasB120.050.0681.8277.600.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0671.4368.720.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.100.0650.0051.180.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0617.6529.21-0.03-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0627.7834.19-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0615.0026.98-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.100.0615.0015.35-0.07-0.04
The CitadelSC0.050.0631.8230.06-0.02-0.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0682.6179.560.030.03
CreightonBE0.100.0562.5059.800.020.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.0571.4369.420.040.02
UABCUSA0.100.0582.6179.410.070.03
StanfordP120.000.0550.0046.620.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0559.0953.040.010.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.0536.8442.90-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0528.5733.37-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0540.0040.30-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.0025.69-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0550.0051.190.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0561.9056.690.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0515.0018.08-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.090.0535.0038.49-0.03-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0550.0054.210.000.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0565.2259.020.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0540.9140.65-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.090.0585.7185.390.060.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0547.8346.89-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.090.0565.2266.070.030.02
HowardMEAC0.090.0536.3638.93-0.03-0.01
XavierBE0.100.0591.3084.340.080.04
IowaB100.090.0582.6180.590.060.03
MarylandB100.050.0587.5083.700.030.04
MichiganB100.050.0569.5766.240.020.02
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0579.1780.720.060.03
NebraskaB100.050.0554.1751.850.000.00
WisconsinB100.050.0560.8755.840.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0347.6245.85-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.050.0370.8369.500.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0347.8350.14-0.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0365.2261.430.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0344.0045.27-0.01-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0321.7422.73-0.03-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0322.7327.19-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.050.0369.5764.850.020.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0359.0961.320.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.035.007.23-0.04-0.02
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.8758.370.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0360.8760.780.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0328.5726.96-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0370.8367.730.020.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0368.0067.980.000.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0345.0049.42-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0390.9186.160.040.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0333.3334.19-0.02-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0376.1972.290.030.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0338.8938.50-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0365.2266.170.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.000.0322.7323.24-0.00-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0366.6770.550.020.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.27-0.00-0.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0352.1755.940.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0366.6766.540.020.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.00
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.14-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0340.0039.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.050.0360.8760.760.010.01
Iowa St.B120.050.0373.9170.050.020.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.560.020.01
MercerSC0.050.0369.5769.090.020.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0334.7830.38-0.02-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.660.030.02
North DakotaBSky0.050.0347.3749.98-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0345.8342.26-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0354.5554.490.000.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0366.6762.580.020.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0378.2678.050.000.02
ButlerBE0.050.0369.5767.170.020.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0328.5728.54-0.02-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0345.8344.12-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0321.7422.99-0.03-0.01
LehighPat0.050.0336.3639.78-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.050.0326.0927.81-0.02-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0329.1733.14-0.02-0.01
NorthwesternB100.000.0366.6763.440.000.01
Penn St.B100.050.0350.0046.710.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.210.020.01
RutgersB100.050.0321.7420.35-0.03-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0317.3920.66-0.03-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0342.8650.39-0.010.00
VermontAE0.050.0352.0054.870.000.00
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.680.020.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0330.4332.36-0.02-0.01