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Through games of Dec 18, 2014.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:109.7
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:106
Current SOS:258
Current Record:7-3
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-2
Current OOC Record:7-3
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:146
Expected OOC SOS:258



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-522.00.01%
24-629.40.07%
23-740.00.36%
22-849.11.73%
21-960.04.94%
20-1072.89.81%
19-1186.715.77%
18-12101.318.75%
17-13117.018.70%
16-14133.115.03%
15-15151.18.52%
14-16169.24.41%
13-17188.31.38%
12-18208.70.45%
11-19225.80.05%
10-20244.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Idaho St. (299.2)BSkyH79-55W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Fullerton (264.4)BWH67-59W100%0.0
11-20Boston College (153.8)ACCN69-65L0%0.0
11-21George Mason (222.5)A10N58-69W100%0.0
11-23Texas A&M (58.1)SECN51-64L0%0.0
11-30USC (189.1)P12H54-66L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico St. (114.2)WACH62-47W100%0.0
12-6Valparaiso (100.6)HorzA46-63W100%0.0
12-13Louisiana Monroe (208.5)SBH54-46W100%0.0
12-17Central Arkansas (339.1)SlndH76-55W100%0.0
12-20New Mexico St. (114.2)WACA0-029%-6.3
12-23Grand Canyon (288.2)WACA0-068%5.5
12-31Fresno St. (258.3)MWCH0-087%13.5
1-3Colorado St. (32.3)MWCH0-050%0.1
1-6San Diego St. (35.0)MWCA0-019%-10.1
1-10Utah St. (176.2)MWCA0-050%-0.1
1-14Air Force (109.1)MWCH0-060%3.1
1-18Boise St. (62.9)MWCH0-057%2.0
1-21UNLV (134.4)MWCA0-049%-0.2
1-24Wyoming (72.2)MWCA0-024%-8.1
1-31San Jose St. (327.7)MWCH0-097%22.0
2-4Air Force (109.1)MWCA0-032%-5.6
2-7Utah St. (176.2)MWCH0-077%8.7
2-10Colorado St. (32.3)MWCA0-023%-8.7
2-14Nevada (283.3)MWCA0-066%4.9
2-17San Diego St. (35.0)MWCH0-045%-1.4
2-21UNLV (134.4)MWCH0-077%8.5
2-24Boise St. (62.9)MWCA0-028%-6.8
2-28Fresno St. (258.3)MWCA0-066%4.8
3-7Wyoming (72.2)MWCH0-052%0.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC27.8726.3861.3657.386.343.90
Colorado St.MWC0.004.21100.0079.090.002.45
Utah St.MWC0.254.2055.5652.030.030.17
WyomingMWC0.234.1977.7874.240.132.03
San Diego St.MWC0.004.1770.0073.200.001.94
Boise St.MWC0.004.1775.0069.530.001.63
UNLVMWC0.004.1575.0051.720.000.14
Fresno St.MWC0.004.1430.0030.28-0.00-1.63
Air ForceMWC0.004.1357.1462.290.001.02
New Mexico St.WAC5.003.5040.0067.12-1.001.20
San Jose St.MWC0.232.620.008.01-0.23-2.20
NevadaMWC0.232.6211.1124.69-0.18-1.32
Grand CanyonWAC0.361.8136.3644.98-0.10-0.18
USCP125.231.7855.5633.920.58-0.57
Cal St. FullertonBW5.251.7540.0040.27-1.05-0.34
Idaho St.BSky5.001.7516.6734.56-3.33-0.54
Boston CollegeACC5.001.6962.5040.101.25-0.34
Central ArkansasSlnd5.001.670.0018.13-5.00-1.06
George MasonA105.001.6728.5726.86-2.14-0.77
Louisiana MonroeSB5.001.6740.0047.02-1.00-0.10
Texas A&MSEC5.001.6775.0064.202.500.47
ValparaisoHorz5.001.6788.8972.203.890.74
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.3710.0030.45-0.00-0.15
Utah ValleyWAC0.360.2933.3340.31-0.12-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.2337.5046.50-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.2366.6758.240.000.04
UC DavisBW0.000.2185.7161.020.000.05
Montana St.BSky0.000.2022.2228.69-0.00-0.09
CaliforniaP120.000.2090.0066.690.000.07
Northern ColoradoBSky0.230.2028.5757.26-0.100.03
MontanaBSky0.000.1725.0052.09-0.000.01
Southern UtahBSky0.000.1716.6727.56-0.00-0.08
PacificWCC0.360.1750.0038.180.00-0.04
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.1737.5041.20-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1737.5046.78-0.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.170.0011.40-0.00-0.13
UMKCWAC0.000.1722.2241.92-0.00-0.03
UTEPCUSA0.450.1766.6772.670.150.08
UtahP120.000.1777.7879.480.000.10
Weber St.BSky0.000.1528.5742.17-0.00-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.1442.8638.75-0.00-0.03
Florida A&MMEAC0.230.140.0012.36-0.23-0.11
DenverSum0.360.1450.0054.230.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.1440.0050.07-0.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.1442.8643.10-0.00-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.280.1450.0074.000.000.07
ArizonaP120.000.14100.0080.590.000.08
Nebraska OmahaSum0.280.1244.4455.75-0.030.01
Texas TechB120.000.1288.8955.910.000.01
IdahoBSky0.000.1237.5049.83-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.1262.5071.290.000.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1216.6719.68-0.00-0.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1240.0050.78-0.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.230.1271.4357.100.100.02
Wright St.Horz0.230.1260.0057.600.050.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.690.120.0037.73-0.69-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.230.1275.0058.430.110.02
Santa ClaraWCC0.230.1250.0040.880.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.250.1266.6748.410.08-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.1254.5557.300.000.02
StetsonASun0.230.1110.0027.42-0.18-0.05
WashingtonP120.000.11100.0071.820.000.05
BYUWCC0.000.1166.6767.300.000.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1120.0028.20-0.00-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.1137.5064.43-0.000.03
Arizona St.P120.280.1160.0053.820.060.01
PittsburghACC0.000.1166.6752.340.000.01
StanfordP120.000.1175.0057.570.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.250.0920.0038.24-0.15-0.02
Arkansas Little RockSB0.280.0942.8638.26-0.04-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.280.0933.3345.50-0.09-0.01
TroySB0.280.0933.3339.46-0.09-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0955.5654.950.000.01
ArmyPat0.250.0977.7868.780.140.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0918.1821.30-0.00-0.05
Loyola MarymountWCC0.250.0925.0023.43-0.13-0.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0981.8264.110.000.02
Washington St.P120.360.0940.0028.86-0.07-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.280.0945.4544.07-0.03-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.360.0962.5054.970.090.01
FloridaSEC0.420.0960.0064.930.080.03
Ball St.MAC0.250.0928.5736.95-0.11-0.02
MissouriSEC0.250.0944.4431.58-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.510.0990.0073.870.400.04
MaristMAAC0.280.0910.0018.61-0.22-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0950.0039.340.00-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.280.090.0038.46-0.28-0.02
DaytonA100.560.0877.7870.120.310.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.280.0842.8649.98-0.04-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0818.1846.16-0.00-0.01
UCLAP120.230.0872.7357.280.100.01
MercerSC0.000.0837.5042.45-0.00-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0637.5034.19-0.00-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6762.620.000.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.060.008.88-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0655.5638.600.00-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0642.8652.71-0.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0036.67-0.00-0.02
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0050.330.000.00
The CitadelSC0.000.0616.6730.84-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.420.0657.1470.590.060.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0633.3349.71-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.000.0644.4448.88-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6777.030.000.03
Green BayHorz0.000.0675.0078.480.000.03
HoustonAmer0.000.0671.4348.860.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0633.3334.28-0.00-0.02
OaklandHorz0.000.0630.0031.57-0.00-0.02
WisconsinB100.000.0690.9188.390.000.05
PrincetonIvy0.310.0627.2737.85-0.14-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.230.0642.8642.32-0.03-0.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6745.670.00-0.00
MaineAE0.530.0611.1121.08-0.41-0.03
Portland St.BSky0.250.0650.0041.830.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.0687.5077.020.000.03
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0637.5038.60-0.00-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0677.7871.110.000.02
George WashingtonA100.000.0666.6766.340.000.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0666.6754.830.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0666.6764.310.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0675.0074.340.000.03
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0625.0049.09-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.060.0018.94-0.00-0.04
Oral RobertsSum0.230.0644.4445.59-0.03-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0655.5657.090.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.0660.0033.870.00-0.02
SMUAmer0.000.0670.0071.330.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0611.1144.04-0.00-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.000.060.0033.84-0.00-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0625.0028.68-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0611.1144.62-0.00-0.01
VCUA100.000.0670.0071.420.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.230.0687.5085.320.170.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.590.0650.0044.900.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.940.000.03
KentuckySEC0.000.06100.0094.790.000.05
MassachusettsA100.280.0660.0055.630.060.01
West VirginiaB120.590.0690.0066.940.470.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.0666.6754.660.000.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0633.3348.89-0.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0644.4436.35-0.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.0677.7869.190.000.02
KansasB120.000.0688.8969.390.000.02
LSUSEC0.000.0680.0064.110.000.02
Miami FLACC0.000.0690.0075.520.000.03
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0637.5040.20-0.00-0.01
Notre DameACC0.000.0690.9171.890.000.02
OregonP120.000.0666.6758.060.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7855.460.000.01
South DakotaSum0.000.0627.2738.97-0.00-0.01
SyracuseACC0.000.0666.6757.800.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0663.6455.600.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.420.0330.0039.44-0.17-0.01
SamfordSC0.000.0333.3331.58-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.420.0330.0037.28-0.17-0.01
DrakeMVC0.250.0320.0019.99-0.15-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.250.0371.4363.890.110.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.250.0342.8655.64-0.040.00
IPFWSum0.000.0357.1456.900.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.0370.0060.790.000.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0325.0038.92-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.250.0355.5661.790.030.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0325.0032.77-0.00-0.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0390.0067.260.000.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0362.5054.980.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0320.0034.08-0.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0375.0069.120.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0385.7170.350.000.01
CornellIvy0.310.0355.5648.240.03-0.00
CreightonBE0.280.0372.7351.560.130.00
DuquesneA100.000.0328.5731.23-0.00-0.01
FIUCUSA0.230.0344.4451.04-0.030.00
FordhamA100.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.0320.0039.70-0.00-0.01
IndianaB100.000.0380.0057.630.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0366.6772.340.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0350.0049.960.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.000.0314.2934.12-0.00-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.310.0322.2237.50-0.17-0.01
NebraskaB100.280.0366.6743.780.09-0.00
Northern IowaMVC0.310.0390.0078.050.250.02
OklahomaB120.000.0377.7867.290.000.01
Old DominionCUSA0.310.0388.8981.310.240.02
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5073.190.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0355.5640.500.00-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.280.0344.4447.53-0.03-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0375.0065.410.000.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0366.6777.690.000.02
USC UpstateASun0.230.0360.0064.620.050.01
AkronMAC0.250.0360.0056.560.050.00
ArkansasSEC0.000.0377.7871.960.000.01
BinghamtonAE0.280.030.0011.87-0.28-0.02
DrexelCAA0.250.0325.0037.13-0.13-0.01
DukeACC0.000.03100.0087.140.000.02
Florida St.ACC0.000.0350.0037.510.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0362.5059.510.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0377.7851.350.000.00
HartfordAE0.000.0350.0051.050.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0360.0037.220.00-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0085.330.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0370.0052.610.000.00
New HampshireAE0.280.0357.1464.620.040.01
North CarolinaACC0.000.0370.0071.630.000.01
Penn St.B100.250.0390.9153.850.200.00
ProvidenceBE0.280.0372.7353.260.130.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0362.5064.260.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0350.0046.150.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.0350.0049.620.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.000.0355.5654.360.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0375.0060.400.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0344.4457.85-0.000.00
VirginiaACC0.000.03100.0085.310.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0355.5638.130.00-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0350.0038.000.00-0.01