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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:172.0
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:120
Current SOS:120
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-12
Expected Conf Record:7-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:153
Expected OOC SOS:249



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16172.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Idaho St. (343.0)BSkyH79-55W100%0.0
11-16Cal St. Fullerton (314.0)BWH67-59W100%0.0
11-20Boston College (165.0)ACCN69-65L0%0.0
11-21George Mason (221.0)A10N58-69W100%0.0
11-23Texas A&M (67.0)SECN51-64L0%0.0
11-30USC (207.0)P12H54-66L0%0.0
12-3New Mexico St. (103.0)WACH62-47W100%0.0
12-6Valparaiso (50.0)HorzA46-63W100%0.0
12-13Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH54-46W100%0.0
12-17Central Arkansas (349.0)SlndH76-55W100%0.0
12-20New Mexico St. (103.0)WACA67-69W100%0.0
12-23Grand Canyon (274.0)WACA68-65L0%0.0
12-31Fresno St. (182.0)MWCH76-64W100%0.0
1-3Colorado St. (29.0)MWCH66-53W100%0.0
1-6San Diego St. (26.0)MWCA56-42L0%0.0
1-10Utah St. (143.0)MWCA60-66W100%0.0
1-14Air Force (240.0)MWCH60-48W100%0.0
1-18Boise St. (40.0)MWCH59-69L0%0.0
1-21UNLV (114.0)MWCA69-71W100%0.0
1-24Wyoming (71.0)MWCA63-62L0%0.0
1-31San Jose St. (336.0)MWCH67-41W100%0.0
2-4Air Force (240.0)MWCA53-49L0%0.0
2-7Utah St. (143.0)MWCH60-63L0%0.0
2-10Colorado St. (29.0)MWCA70-59L0%0.0
2-14Nevada (306.0)MWCA66-63L0%0.0
2-17San Diego St. (26.0)MWCH46-63L0%0.0
2-21UNLV (114.0)MWCH68-76L0%0.0
2-24Boise St. (40.0)MWCA76-65L0%0.0
2-28Fresno St. (182.0)MWCA59-55L0%0.0
3-7Wyoming (71.0)MWCH52-49W100%0.0
3-11Air Force (240.0)MWCN61-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC26.4026.4045.9945.99-2.12-2.12
Air ForceMWC5.625.6238.4638.46-1.30-1.30
San Diego St.MWC4.204.2074.1974.192.032.03
WyomingMWC4.204.2073.3373.331.961.96
Boise St.MWC4.184.1872.4172.411.871.87
Colorado St.MWC4.174.1783.3383.332.782.78
Utah St.MWC4.124.1257.1457.140.590.59
UNLVMWC4.104.1053.3353.330.270.27
Fresno St.MWC4.034.0342.8642.86-0.58-0.58
New Mexico St.WAC3.383.3872.4172.411.521.52
NevadaMWC2.582.5821.4321.43-1.48-1.48
San Jose St.MWC2.532.530.000.00-2.53-2.53
Grand CanyonWAC1.751.7550.0050.000.000.00
USCP121.721.7235.4835.48-0.50-0.50
Cal St. FullertonBW1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
Idaho St.BSky1.691.6918.5218.52-1.07-1.07
Boston CollegeACC1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
Central ArkansasSlnd1.611.617.147.14-1.38-1.38
George MasonA101.611.6127.5927.59-0.72-0.72
Louisiana MonroeSB1.611.6160.7160.710.350.35
Texas A&MSEC1.611.6163.3363.330.430.43
ValparaisoHorz1.611.6186.2186.211.171.17
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.400.4036.6736.67-0.11-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.270.2732.1432.14-0.10-0.10
SeattleWAC0.270.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.230.2346.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.220.2279.3179.310.130.13
Montana St.BSky0.190.1920.6920.69-0.11-0.11
CaliforniaP120.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.1846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
PacificWCC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.160.1660.0060.000.030.03
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1617.2417.24-0.10-0.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
UMKCWAC0.160.1638.7138.71-0.04-0.04
UTEPCUSA0.150.1568.7568.750.060.06
UtahP120.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Weber St.BSky0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.140.1439.2939.29-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Texas TechB120.140.1440.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.130.1372.4172.410.060.06
Florida A&MMEAC0.130.136.906.90-0.11-0.11
DenverSum0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Arizona St.P120.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
ArizonaP120.120.1291.1891.180.100.10
Northern ArizonaBSky0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.110.1155.5655.560.010.01
ArmyPat0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.110.1125.0025.00-0.05-0.05
PortlandWCC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.100.1022.5822.58-0.06-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1068.9768.970.040.04
UCLAP120.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
WashingtonP120.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
BYUWCC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
StetsonASun0.100.1021.4321.43-0.06-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0867.8667.860.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.080.000.00-0.08-0.08
Jacksonville St.OVC0.080.0834.4834.48-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
TroySB0.080.0829.6329.63-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0825.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
FloridaSEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.04-0.04
MissouriSEC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Charleston SouthernBSth0.080.0859.2659.260.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0841.1841.18-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
MercerSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.080.0820.6920.69-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
HawaiiBW0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0658.3358.330.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.050.0548.1548.15-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.050.05100.00100.000.050.05
DavidsonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
DetroitHorz0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0527.2727.27-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.050.0510.0010.00-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
HoustonAmer0.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0591.1891.180.040.04
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Georgia TechACC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Miami FLACC0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0568.5768.570.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0581.2581.250.030.03
South DakotaSum0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
TempleAmer0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
CreightonBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0342.3142.31-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0386.6786.670.020.02
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
CornellIvy0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
IPFWSum0.030.0348.1548.15-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
OklahomaB120.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
HartfordAE0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
AkronMAC0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0390.6290.620.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00