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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:12.0
Current RPI:12
Expected SOS:42
Current SOS:42
Current Record:27-6
Expected Record:27-6
Current Conf Record:18-3
Expected Conf Record:18-3
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:14-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:22
Expected OOC SOS:17



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
27-612.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9Alabama A&M (271.0)SWACH88-52W100%0.0
11-17Charleston Southern (268.0)BSthH109-93W100%0.0
11-21UAB (152.0)CUSAN97-94W100%0.0
11-22Massachusetts (23.0)A10N65-81L0%0.0
11-24Davidson (126.0)SCN58-79W100%0.0
11-30San Diego (156.0)WCCH73-66W100%0.0
12-4New Mexico St. (72.0)WACA70-79W100%0.0
12-7Cincinnati (21.0)AmerH63-54W100%0.0
12-14Kansas (3.0)B12A80-63L0%0.0
12-17New Mexico St. (72.0)WACH61-67L0%0.0
12-21Marquette (92.0)BEN75-68W100%0.0
12-23Grand Canyon (203.0)WACH80-68W100%0.0
1-4Colorado St. (182.0)MWCH80-73W100%0.0
1-8Wyoming (135.0)MWCA69-72W100%0.0
1-11San Jose St. (278.0)MWCA65-69W100%0.0
1-15UNLV (108.0)MWCH73-76L0%0.0
1-18Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA78-89W100%0.0
1-21Boise St. (82.0)MWCH84-75W100%0.0
1-25Colorado St. (182.0)MWCA66-68W100%0.0
1-28Utah St. (116.0)MWCA65-78W100%0.0
2-1San Jose St. (278.0)MWCH72-47W100%0.0
2-5Wyoming (135.0)MWCH66-61W100%0.0
2-12Boise St. (82.0)MWCA71-70L0%0.0
2-15Nevada (137.0)MWCH90-72W100%0.0
2-19UNLV (108.0)MWCA56-68W100%0.0
2-22San Diego St. (15.0)MWCH58-44W100%0.0
2-25Utah St. (116.0)MWCH67-58W100%0.0
3-2Nevada (137.0)MWCA58-72W100%0.0
3-5Air Force (251.0)MWCH80-52W100%0.0
3-8San Diego St. (15.0)MWCA51-48L0%0.0
3-13Fresno St. (117.0)MWCN93-77W100%0.0
3-14Boise St. (82.0)MWCN70-67W100%0.0
3-15San Diego St. (15.0)MWCN58-64W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC26.4926.4981.7081.7016.7916.79
San Diego St.MWC5.505.5092.8692.864.714.71
Boise St.MWC5.435.4362.0762.071.311.31
Utah St.MWC4.014.0158.6258.620.690.69
UNLVMWC3.993.9961.2961.290.900.90
Fresno St.MWC3.943.9451.7251.720.140.14
Colorado St.MWC3.943.9450.0050.000.000.00
NevadaMWC3.913.9150.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC3.913.9118.5218.52-2.46-2.46
WyomingMWC3.893.8957.1457.140.560.56
New Mexico St.WAC3.143.1475.0075.001.571.57
Air ForceMWC2.492.4937.0437.04-0.65-0.65
Grand CanyonWAC1.631.6348.0048.00-0.07-0.07
San DiegoWCC1.621.6248.2848.28-0.06-0.06
KansasB121.591.5971.8871.880.690.69
MarquetteBE1.591.5954.8454.840.150.15
UABCUSA1.541.5457.1457.140.220.22
Alabama A&MSWAC1.541.5444.4444.44-0.17-0.17
Charleston SouthernBSth1.521.5234.6234.62-0.47-0.47
CincinnatiAmer1.521.5284.3884.381.041.04
DavidsonSC1.521.5263.3363.330.400.40
MassachusettsA101.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.290.2938.7138.71-0.07-0.07
IdahoWAC0.260.2645.4545.45-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.260.2639.2939.29-0.06-0.06
Utah ValleyWAC0.200.2062.0762.070.050.05
PacificWCC0.200.2048.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.190.193.573.57-0.18-0.18
UTEPCUSA0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1830.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Chicago St.WAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.05-0.05
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1767.8667.860.060.06
ArizonaP120.160.1688.2488.240.130.13
Weber St.BSky0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
ColoradoP120.150.1567.6567.650.050.05
UtahP120.150.1563.3363.330.040.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.150.1525.8125.81-0.07-0.07
UMKCWAC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.150.1555.1755.170.020.02
Iowa St.B120.140.1478.7978.790.080.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
South DakotaSum0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
UC DavisBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
BYUWCC0.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.120.1235.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
CreightonBE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Portland St.BSky0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
HawaiiBW0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
PepperdineWCC0.100.1046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.100.1048.3948.39-0.00-0.00
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.100.1020.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Cal PolyBW0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
CaliforniaP120.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.100.1016.6716.67-0.06-0.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
DrakeMVC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0948.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
LamarSlnd0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.080.0832.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0814.8114.81-0.05-0.05
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Georgia SouthernSC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.070.0731.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
RadfordBSth0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.070.0725.9325.93-0.04-0.04
WashingtonP120.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
ElonSC0.070.0755.1755.170.010.01
SamfordSC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
RutgersAmer0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
FloridaSEC0.070.0794.1294.120.060.06
PittsburghACC0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0713.7913.79-0.05-0.05
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
George WashingtonA100.070.0775.0075.000.040.04
KentuckySEC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0736.3636.36-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0741.1841.18-0.01-0.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
IonaMAAC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
VillanovaBE0.070.0787.5087.500.050.05
Arizona St.P120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.070.0776.4776.470.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
UCFAmer0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
TulsaCUSA0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
VMIBSth0.060.0655.5655.560.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
RichmondA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Montana St.BSky0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0513.7913.79-0.04-0.04
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
USCP120.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Appalachian St.SC0.050.0519.2319.23-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LouisvilleAmer0.050.0585.2985.290.030.03
MemphisAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
OklahomaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0524.1424.14-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South AlabamaSB0.040.0428.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0324.0024.00-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LongwoodBSth0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
TulaneCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0221.2121.21-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
FordhamA100.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
IUPUISum0.020.0210.3410.34-0.02-0.02
La SalleA100.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
New HampshireAE0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint LouisA100.020.0280.6580.650.010.01
VCUA100.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0213.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.020.0234.6234.62-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.020.0283.8783.870.020.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
ToledoMAC0.020.0281.2581.250.010.01
TowsonCAA0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
UMass LowellAE0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00