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Through games of Dec 1, 2016.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:84.5
Current RPI:136
Expected SOS:81
Current SOS:199
Current Record:5-2
Expected Record:18-12
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:5-2
Expected OOC Record:8-4
Expected OOC RPI:85
Expected OOC SOS:81



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-519.00.03%
24-620.90.21%
23-726.80.70%
22-834.12.53%
21-941.75.86%
20-1052.010.52%
19-1163.315.22%
18-1276.217.70%
17-1390.917.28%
16-14106.213.74%
15-15122.58.62%
14-16140.94.72%
13-17159.31.88%
12-18180.20.64%
11-19197.80.28%
10-20216.30.06%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Idaho St. (276.7)BSkyH81-70W100%0.0
11-14Houston Baptist (222.2)SlndH95-79W100%0.0
11-18New Mexico St. (126.1)WACH72-59W100%0.0
11-24Virginia Tech (64.9)ACCN92-72L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Northridge (259.9)BWN105-89W100%0.0
11-27Dayton (36.4)A10N64-57L0%0.0
11-30Abilene Christian (201.3)SlndH64-55W100%0.0
12-3Illinois St. (74.7)MVCA0-028%-7.0
12-7UTEP (255.5)CUSAH0-086%13.0
12-10New Mexico St. (126.1)WACA0-050%-0.1
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (334.8)SWACH0-098%25.0
12-20Arizona (28.2)P12A0-017%-11.5
12-28Fresno St. (202.1)MWCH0-079%9.5
1-1San Diego St. (47.5)MWCA0-024%-8.3
1-4Utah St. (105.4)MWCA0-043%-2.1
1-7Nevada (46.6)MWCH0-049%-0.4
1-10UNLV (163.6)MWCH0-070%6.2
1-14Colorado St. (89.8)MWCA0-040%-3.0
1-17Boise St. (106.2)MWCA0-039%-3.5
1-21Wyoming (182.2)MWCH0-075%8.1
1-24Utah St. (105.4)MWCH0-063%4.1
1-28Nevada (46.6)MWCA0-029%-6.6
2-1UNLV (163.6)MWCA0-050%0.0
2-4San Jose St. (205.1)MWCH0-081%10.7
2-8Air Force (197.4)MWCA0-059%2.6
2-14Boise St. (106.2)MWCH0-059%2.7
2-18Fresno St. (202.1)MWCA0-061%3.3
2-21Colorado St. (89.8)MWCH0-061%3.2
2-25Wyoming (182.2)MWCA0-056%1.9
3-4San Diego St. (47.5)MWCH0-043%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC29.5126.4162.9657.747.654.09
Colorado St.MWC0.514.2483.3362.370.341.05
Boise St.MWC0.004.2150.0059.560.000.80
Utah St.MWC0.514.2050.0054.090.000.34
NevadaMWC0.004.1575.0071.120.001.75
UNLVMWC0.004.1571.4350.250.000.02
Fresno St.MWC0.004.1560.0040.340.00-0.80
WyomingMWC0.004.1460.0049.690.00-0.03
San Diego St.MWC0.004.1475.0075.690.002.13
New Mexico St.WAC7.143.4883.3371.544.761.50
Air ForceMWC0.512.6650.0042.750.00-0.39
San Jose St.MWC0.002.5940.0038.17-0.00-0.61
Idaho St.BSky7.141.8116.6730.87-4.76-0.69
UTEPCUSA0.001.7925.0044.35-0.00-0.20
Cal St. NorthridgeBW7.141.7520.0044.95-4.29-0.18
Abilene ChristianSlnd7.141.7033.3355.51-2.380.19
Houston BaptistSlnd7.141.700.0040.12-7.14-0.34
ArizonaP120.001.6785.7170.580.000.69
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.670.0025.03-0.00-0.83
DaytonA107.141.6760.0071.451.430.72
Illinois St.MVC0.001.6750.0065.940.000.53
Virginia TechACC7.141.6783.3361.644.760.39
UC IrvineBW0.000.2650.0054.690.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.2450.0056.260.000.03
Arizona St.P120.000.2357.1436.050.00-0.06
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.2250.0056.430.000.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.510.2160.0058.950.100.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.2150.0059.670.000.04
MontanaBSky0.000.2114.2947.44-0.00-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.2033.3345.60-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.2071.4366.730.000.07
LamarSlnd0.510.1960.0043.970.10-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.190.0037.92-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.180.0039.35-0.00-0.04
CaliforniaP120.000.1883.3363.610.000.05
PacificWCC0.000.1750.0049.010.00-0.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.1625.0030.93-0.00-0.06
SeattleWAC0.000.1520.0042.63-0.00-0.02
PortlandWCC1.190.1560.0057.170.240.02
DenverSum0.000.1533.3341.11-0.00-0.03
StanfordP120.600.1475.0059.100.300.03
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.1416.6740.71-0.00-0.03
Oregon St.P120.000.1428.5723.76-0.00-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1350.0058.600.000.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.13100.0069.770.000.05
Nicholls St.Slnd0.510.1342.8637.25-0.07-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.120.0017.30-0.00-0.08
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1266.6754.420.000.01
San DiegoWCC0.510.1228.5727.50-0.22-0.06
UMKCWAC0.000.1271.4356.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1225.0024.28-0.00-0.06
Texas TechB121.400.1285.7163.781.000.03
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3335.92-0.00-0.03
DrakeMVC0.000.120.0021.30-0.00-0.07
Indiana St.MVC0.000.1233.3346.81-0.00-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1240.0057.49-0.000.02
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1233.3323.33-0.00-0.06
HawaiiBW0.000.1250.0050.940.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.000.1233.3340.39-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1271.4386.030.000.09
UTSACUSA0.000.1228.5728.46-0.00-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1214.2934.56-0.00-0.04
Weber St.BSky0.000.1220.0054.94-0.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.1250.0029.280.00-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1216.6730.02-0.00-0.05
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.1250.0046.670.00-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0033.43-0.00-0.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.120.0033.44-0.00-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.1216.6732.62-0.00-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.120.0034.23-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.600.11100.0089.040.600.09
Southern UtahBSky0.000.110.0023.26-0.00-0.06
ColoradoP120.000.1171.4359.850.000.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.110.0032.39-0.00-0.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1114.2928.15-0.00-0.05
IonaMAAC0.000.1160.0070.140.000.04
WashingtonP120.000.1157.1452.630.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1014.2929.15-0.00-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.100.0020.01-0.00-0.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.100.0034.01-0.00-0.03
Charleston SouthernBSth0.890.0925.0038.72-0.45-0.02
MarquetteBE0.890.0971.4363.090.380.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0975.0064.960.000.03
UC DavisBW0.000.0957.1448.410.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.000.09100.0091.060.000.07
IdahoBSky0.000.0940.0050.88-0.000.00
BYUWCC0.000.0971.4368.660.000.03
NJITASun0.510.0942.8650.32-0.070.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0971.4343.020.00-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0916.6736.45-0.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC1.110.0966.6766.100.370.03
TCUB120.000.08100.0059.480.000.02
UCLAP120.600.08100.0083.550.600.06
Washington St.P120.000.0850.0036.820.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0842.8634.17-0.00-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0857.1467.020.000.03
DukeACC0.000.0887.5078.680.000.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0725.0056.71-0.000.01
RiceCUSA0.890.0685.7169.010.640.02
NorthwesternB100.000.0671.4366.220.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.060.0021.30-0.00-0.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.510.0616.6731.91-0.34-0.02
SamfordSC0.510.0657.1455.810.070.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.060.0024.19-0.00-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5730.63-0.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0680.0035.960.00-0.02
FIUCUSA0.000.0616.6733.69-0.00-0.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0620.0034.39-0.00-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.0640.0067.95-0.000.02
PurdueB100.000.0671.4374.450.000.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.000.0614.2937.52-0.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0633.3332.23-0.00-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0675.0054.320.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0637.5036.24-0.00-0.02
UABCUSA0.000.0657.1461.940.000.01
Wake ForestACC0.000.0671.4352.370.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0662.5056.500.000.01
DuquesneA100.000.0637.5034.65-0.00-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0666.6751.460.000.00
Kansas St.B120.000.0685.7155.890.000.01
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.460.000.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.0633.3353.29-0.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.000.0633.3327.13-0.00-0.03
Rhode IslandA100.000.0671.4370.330.000.02
SMUAmer0.000.0657.1469.300.000.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0666.6770.740.000.02
VCUA100.000.0685.7178.150.000.03
Saint LouisA100.000.0633.3326.75-0.00-0.03
George WashingtonA100.000.0657.1444.160.00-0.01
NebraskaB101.110.0650.0043.610.00-0.01
VMISC0.510.060.0021.15-0.51-0.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.060.0013.30-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0650.0027.250.00-0.03
ClemsonACC0.000.0666.6753.460.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.0628.5734.18-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.060.0042.55-0.00-0.01
Miami FLACC0.000.0671.4365.740.000.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0024.77-0.00-0.03
SouthernSWAC0.000.0625.0056.92-0.000.01
VirginiaACC0.000.06100.0082.550.000.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0540.0050.91-0.000.00
KansasB120.000.0585.7176.170.000.03
OaklandHorz0.000.0583.3378.430.000.03
South AlabamaSB0.000.0583.3361.150.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0550.0054.490.000.00
USCP120.000.05100.0075.380.000.03
IndianaB100.000.0383.3375.060.000.02
New HampshireAE0.890.0350.0057.480.000.00
OklahomaB120.890.0383.3351.920.600.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0360.0052.760.000.00
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0383.3350.740.000.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0333.3343.64-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.000.0366.6770.930.000.01
IUPUISum0.000.0328.5747.72-0.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6737.09-0.00-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.000.0342.8661.90-0.000.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.600.0342.8645.30-0.09-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0328.5733.92-0.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0360.0039.200.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0366.6751.090.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0383.3359.600.000.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0385.7173.010.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0340.0030.80-0.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0366.6765.810.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0383.3369.840.000.01
AlabamaSEC0.600.0366.6756.020.200.00
ArmyPat0.000.0333.3345.58-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.600.0340.0041.65-0.12-0.00
DavidsonA100.000.0383.3368.880.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0375.0047.510.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0383.3380.700.000.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.510.0342.8646.78-0.07-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0023.46-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0357.1443.680.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0357.1442.940.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0357.1459.480.000.01
La SalleA100.000.0360.0051.780.000.00
MassachusettsA100.000.0383.3358.080.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0325.0040.37-0.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0357.1448.600.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.000.0328.5728.26-0.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0357.1448.860.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.0360.0070.500.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0375.0073.840.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0366.6756.360.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.000.0385.7162.410.000.01
Georgia TechACC0.000.0366.6739.720.00-0.01
High PointBSth0.510.0350.0051.260.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0360.0057.900.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0385.7175.950.000.01
MaineAE0.510.0316.6725.61-0.34-0.01
MichiganB100.510.0371.4366.530.220.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0371.4346.010.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.000.0385.7180.010.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0371.4350.570.000.00
Notre DameACC0.000.03100.0075.010.000.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0383.3356.560.000.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0385.7155.550.000.00
SienaMAAC0.000.0328.5750.51-0.000.00
SyracuseACC0.000.0366.6770.140.000.01
The CitadelSC0.000.0340.0027.05-0.00-0.01
UMBCAE0.000.0380.0055.340.000.00
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0075.690.000.01
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0061.590.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0350.0045.920.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.000.0342.8638.05-0.00-0.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0061.040.000.01