New Mexico

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	27.0
Current RPI:	27
Expected SOS:	82
Current SOS:	82
Current Record:	26-6
Expected Record:	26-6
Current Conf Record:	13-4
Expected Conf Record:	13-4
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-1
Current OOC Record:	13-2
Expected OOC Record:	13-2
Expected OOC RPI:	88
Expected OOC SOS:	277

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-6	27.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-16	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	H	53-62	L	0%
11-18	Arizona St. (252.0)	P12	A	71-76	W	100%
11-24	Santa Clara (303.0)	WCC	N	79-76	L	0%
11-25	Washington St. (175.0)	P12	N	72-62	W	100%
11-27	Boston College (244.0)	ACC	N	57-75	W	100%
11-30	Idaho St. (290.0)	BSky	H	65-41	W	100%
12-3	Missouri St. (123.0)	MVC	H	76-60	W	100%
12-10	Southern California (270.0)	P12	A	41-44	W	100%
12-17	Oklahoma St. (124.0)	B12	N	56-66	W	100%
12-20	Montana St. (275.0)	BSky	H	91-46	W	100%
12-22	Missouri Kansas City (266.0)	Sum	H	87-62	W	100%
12-28	New Mexico St. (59.0)	WAC	A	69-89	W	100%
12-31	St. Louis (31.0)	A10	H	64-60	W	100%
1-3	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	H	98-61	W	100%
1-7	North Dakota (242.0)	GWC	H	85-57	W	100%
1-14	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	A	62-72	W	100%
1-18	San Diego St. (26.0)	MWC	H	70-75	L	0%
1-21	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	A	80-63	L	0%
1-25	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	H	85-52	W	100%
1-28	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	H	71-54	W	100%
1-31	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	A	42-81	W	100%
2-4	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	A	49-65	W	100%
2-11	Wyoming (83.0)	MWC	H	48-38	W	100%
2-15	San Diego St. (26.0)	MWC	A	67-77	W	100%
2-18	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	H	65-45	W	100%
2-21	Colorado St. (29.0)	MWC	A	71-63	L	0%
2-25	Texas Christian (114.0)	MWC	A	83-64	L	0%
2-29	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	H	86-56	W	100%
3-3	Boise St. (173.0)	MWC	H	76-61	W	100%
3-8	Air Force (168.0)	MWC	N	79-64	W	100%
3-9	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	A	67-72	W	100%
3-10	San Diego St. (26.0)	MWC	N	59-68	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Mexico	MWC	26.57	26.57	81.08	81.08	16.52	16.52
San Diego St.	MWC	5.56	5.56	82.14	82.14	3.58	3.58
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.51	5.51	79.31	79.31	3.23	3.23
Air Force	MWC	5.41	5.41	45.83	45.83	-0.45	-0.45
Colorado St.	MWC	4.04	4.04	64.29	64.29	1.16	1.16
Wyoming	MWC	4.04	4.04	66.67	66.67	1.35	1.35
Boise St.	MWC	4.01	4.01	44.44	44.44	-0.45	-0.45
Texas Christian	MWC	3.99	3.99	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.12	3.12	74.19	74.19	1.51	1.51
Southern California	P12	1.87	1.87	19.35	19.35	-1.14	-1.14
Idaho St.	BSky	1.84	1.84	28.57	28.57	-0.79	-0.79
North Dakota	GWC	1.70	1.70	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	1.69	1.69	33.33	33.33	-0.56	-0.56
Washington St.	P12	1.69	1.69	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Houston Baptist	GWC	1.65	1.65	26.92	26.92	-0.76	-0.76
Montana St.	BSky	1.64	1.64	38.46	38.46	-0.38	-0.38
Santa Clara	WCC	1.62	1.62	18.52	18.52	-1.02	-1.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	1.59	1.59	32.14	32.14	-0.57	-0.57
Boston College	ACC	1.59	1.59	30.00	30.00	-0.64	-0.64
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.59	1.59	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
St. Louis	A10	1.59	1.59	80.00	80.00	0.95	0.95
Missouri St.	MVC	1.59	1.59	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.29	0.29	65.62	65.62	0.09	0.09
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.28	0.28	25.00	25.00	-0.14	-0.14
Chicago St.	GWC	0.28	0.28	10.71	10.71	-0.22	-0.22
Fresno St.	WAC	0.28	0.28	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Arizona	P12	0.27	0.27	67.65	67.65	0.10	0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.27	0.27	30.77	30.77	-0.10	-0.10
Utah Valley	GWC	0.25	0.25	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.25	0.25	72.73	72.73	0.11	0.11
Drake	MVC	0.24	0.24	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.22	0.22	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	WAC	0.22	0.22	80.00	80.00	0.13	0.13
Hawaii	WAC	0.22	0.22	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Utah	P12	0.21	0.21	16.67	16.67	-0.14	-0.14
Washington	P12	0.21	0.21	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Idaho	WAC	0.20	0.20	55.17	55.17	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.20	0.20	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.19	0.19	79.31	79.31	0.11	0.11
Portland	WCC	0.19	0.19	20.00	20.00	-0.11	-0.11
UC Riverside	BW	0.18	0.18	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.18	0.18	64.29	64.29	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.17	0.17	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.17	0.17	74.19	74.19	0.08	0.08
Gonzaga	WCC	0.17	0.17	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	30.77	30.77	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.16	0.16	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.16	0.16	21.88	21.88	-0.09	-0.09
Denver	SB	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Creighton	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.11	0.11
Oklahoma	B12	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.14	0.14	20.69	20.69	-0.08	-0.08
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	11.11	11.11	-0.11	-0.11
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.14	32.14	32.14	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Southern Utah	Sum	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	CUSA	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Wichita St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	83.87	83.87	0.08	0.08
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Wright St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	78.57	78.57	0.06	0.06
Western Illinois	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.00	28.00	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	19.23	19.23	-0.07	-0.07
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.07	0.07
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.08	0.08	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.08	0.08	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	23.08	23.08	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri	B12	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Longwood	ind	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Pacific	BW	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	ind	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	34.62	34.62	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01