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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:141.0
Current RPI:141
Expected SOS:111
Current SOS:111
Current Record:17-15
Expected Record:17-15
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:10-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-3
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:160
Expected OOC SOS:116



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-15141.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Texas Southern (190.0)SWACH86-57W100%0.0
11-15New Mexico St. (111.0)WACA74-83W100%0.0
11-18Loyola Chicago (239.0)MVCH75-51W100%0.0
11-21USC (51.0)P12A90-82L0%0.0
11-25Nicholls St. (313.0)SlndH75-63W100%0.0
12-1Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH91-75W100%0.0
12-5Purdue (15.0)B10A70-58L0%0.0
12-12Northern Iowa (70.0)MVCH76-57W100%0.0
12-16New Mexico St. (111.0)WACH79-61W100%0.0
12-19Rice (279.0)CUSAH89-90L0%0.0
12-22Auburn (175.0)SECN78-83L0%0.0
12-23BYU (76.0)WCCN96-66L0%0.0
12-25Washington St. (212.0)P12N82-59L0%0.0
12-30Nevada (118.0)MWCH88-76W100%0.0
1-2Fresno St. (66.0)MWCA62-77W100%0.0
1-9Utah St. (151.0)MWCH77-59W100%0.0
1-12UNLV (147.0)MWCA86-74L0%0.0
1-16Wyoming (187.0)MWCH68-70L0%0.0
1-23San Jose St. (301.0)MWCA64-83W100%0.0
1-27Air Force (226.0)MWCH84-55W100%0.0
1-30Boise St. (101.0)MWCA83-88W100%0.0
2-2UNLV (147.0)MWCH87-83W100%0.0
2-6San Diego St. (41.0)MWCA78-71L0%0.0
2-9Utah St. (151.0)MWCA80-72L0%0.0
2-13San Jose St. (301.0)MWCH74-58W100%0.0
2-17Boise St. (101.0)MWCH80-78W100%0.0
2-20Air Force (226.0)MWCA76-72L0%0.0
2-23Colorado St. (181.0)MWCA86-69L0%0.0
2-27Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH82-92L0%0.0
3-1San Diego St. (41.0)MWCH56-83L0%0.0
3-5Nevada (118.0)MWCA66-71W100%0.0
3-10Nevada (118.0)MWCN62-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC26.3826.3850.7150.710.380.38
NevadaMWC5.465.4659.2659.261.011.01
San Diego St.MWC4.084.0870.0070.001.631.63
Fresno St.MWC4.084.0873.3373.331.901.90
Utah St.MWC4.024.0248.1548.15-0.15-0.15
Air ForceMWC4.004.0039.2939.29-0.86-0.86
UNLVMWC4.004.0051.7251.720.140.14
Boise St.MWC3.933.9364.2964.291.121.12
San Jose St.MWC3.893.8923.0823.08-2.09-2.09
New Mexico St.WAC3.233.2372.4172.411.451.45
Colorado St.MWC2.632.6348.3948.39-0.08-0.08
WyomingMWC2.542.5437.9337.93-0.61-0.61
Northern IowaMVC1.691.6965.6265.620.530.53
Washington St.P121.661.6624.1424.14-0.86-0.86
BYUWCC1.641.6467.7467.740.580.58
USCP121.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
Oral RobertsSum1.611.6142.8642.86-0.23-0.23
Nicholls St.Slnd1.611.6126.6726.67-0.75-0.75
RiceCUSA1.611.6131.0331.03-0.61-0.61
Loyola ChicagoMVC1.611.6146.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Texas SouthernSWAC1.591.5958.0658.060.260.26
AuburnSEC1.561.5633.3333.33-0.52-0.52
PurdueB101.561.5675.7675.760.800.80
Wichita St.MVC0.350.3574.1974.190.170.17
ArizonaP120.300.3075.7675.760.160.16
ColoradoP120.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
Montana St.BSky0.240.2443.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.230.2372.4172.410.100.10
OregonP120.220.2281.8281.820.140.14
Santa ClaraWCC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.210.2138.7138.71-0.05-0.05
San DiegoWCC0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
Utah ValleyWAC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.180.1860.0060.000.040.04
UTEPCUSA0.180.1856.2556.250.020.02
DrakeMVC0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
PacificWCC0.180.1823.0823.08-0.09-0.09
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.180.1822.8622.86-0.10-0.10
BradleyMVC0.180.1812.9012.90-0.13-0.13
UCLAP120.170.1746.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.170.1768.7568.750.070.07
UtahP120.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
EvansvilleMVC0.170.1772.7372.730.080.08
SeattleWAC0.160.1642.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1518.5218.52-0.10-0.10
HawaiiBW0.150.1583.3383.330.100.10
UMKCWAC0.150.1532.1432.14-0.05-0.05
CaliforniaP120.150.1569.7069.700.060.06
Arizona St.P120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1579.3179.310.090.09
Long Beach St.BW0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
Illinois St.MVC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
DenverSum0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
MontanaBSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
ToledoMAC0.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
IdahoBSky0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
South DakotaSum0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.100.1037.9337.93-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.100.1032.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1057.6957.690.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1031.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Tennessee TechOVC0.100.1060.7160.710.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.100.103.453.45-0.09-0.09
LamarSlnd0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
WashingtonP120.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.100.1056.0056.000.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.100.1078.1278.120.060.06
SouthernSWAC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1022.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Michigan St.B100.100.1085.2985.290.070.07
PepperdineWCC0.100.1056.6756.670.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0829.1729.17-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.080.0828.5728.57-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UTSACUSA0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
McNeese St.Slnd0.080.0826.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.080.0820.8320.83-0.04-0.04
TennesseeSEC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0862.8662.860.020.02
BaylorB120.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
IndianaB100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0782.1482.140.050.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0735.7135.71-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.070.0763.6463.640.020.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
IPFWSum0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
LSUSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
ArmyPat0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
HoustonAmer0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
UABCUSA0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0525.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
CreightonBE0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.050.0587.1087.100.040.04
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.03-0.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
KansasB120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0583.8783.870.030.03
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HowardMEAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TulsaAmer0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MemphisAmer0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
MercerSC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MissouriSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.030.0383.3383.330.020.02
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
BelmontOVC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
ClemsonACC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Kansas St.B120.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OaklandHorz0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
SyracuseACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0234.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
LafayettePat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
North DakotaBSky0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.020.0221.4321.43-0.01-0.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
LehighPat0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
MinnesotaB100.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0230.0030.00-0.01-0.01