New Mexico

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	2.0
Current RPI:	2
Expected SOS:	2
Current SOS:	2
Current Record:	29-5
Expected Record:	29-5
Current Conf Record:	16-3
Expected Conf Record:	16-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	9-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-0
Current OOC Record:	13-2
Expected OOC Record:	13-2
Expected OOC RPI:	3
Expected OOC SOS:	3

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
29-5	2.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Davidson (61.0)	SC	H	86-81	W	100%
11-16	Illinois Chicago (169.0)	Horz	N	66-59	W	100%
11-18	George Mason (162.0)	CAA	N	70-69	W	100%
11-19	Connecticut (49.0)	BE	N	60-66	W	100%
11-23	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	73-58	W	100%
11-25	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	69-54	W	100%
11-28	Mercer (137.0)	ASun	H	76-58	W	100%
12-1	Indiana St. (74.0)	MVC	A	68-77	W	100%
12-5	Southern California (118.0)	P12	H	75-67	W	100%
12-8	Valparaiso (58.0)	Horz	H	65-52	W	100%
12-15	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	73-58	W	100%
12-19	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	63-68	W	100%
12-22	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	65-70	L	0%
12-27	Cincinnati (50.0)	BE	A	54-55	W	100%
12-31	St. Louis (15.0)	A10	A	60-46	L	0%
1-9	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	H	65-60	W	100%
1-12	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	72-45	W	100%
1-16	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	A	74-79	W	100%
1-23	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	H	66-61	W	100%
1-26	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	A	55-34	L	0%
1-30	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	59-63	W	100%
2-2	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	H	75-62	W	100%
2-6	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	H	81-58	W	100%
2-9	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	64-55	L	0%
2-13	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	A	48-54	W	100%
2-16	Boise St. (45.0)	MWC	H	60-50	W	100%
2-23	Colorado St. (18.0)	MWC	A	82-91	W	100%
2-27	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	H	70-60	W	100%
3-2	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	H	53-42	W	100%
3-6	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	62-75	W	100%
3-9	Air Force (80.0)	MWC	A	89-88	L	0%
3-13	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	N	59-46	W	100%
3-15	San Diego St. (30.0)	MWC	N	60-50	W	100%
3-16	Nevada Las Vegas (23.0)	MWC	A	56-63	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Mexico	MWC	26.54	26.54	87.50	87.50	19.91	19.91
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	5.33	5.33	76.67	76.67	2.85	2.85
San Diego St.	MWC	5.29	5.29	70.37	70.37	2.16	2.16
Wyoming	MWC	5.25	5.25	62.96	62.96	1.36	1.36
Colorado St.	MWC	3.95	3.95	79.31	79.31	2.31	2.31
Boise St.	MWC	3.87	3.87	70.37	70.37	1.58	1.58
Nevada	MWC	3.85	3.85	39.29	39.29	-0.82	-0.82
Air Force	MWC	3.84	3.84	53.85	53.85	0.30	0.30
Fresno St.	MWC	3.82	3.82	34.62	34.62	-1.17	-1.17
New Mexico St.	WAC	3.02	3.02	74.19	74.19	1.46	1.46
Idaho	WAC	1.65	1.65	39.29	39.29	-0.35	-0.35
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.59	1.59	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Portland	WCC	1.58	1.58	31.03	31.03	-0.60	-0.60
Indiana St.	MVC	1.54	1.54	56.67	56.67	0.21	0.21
Southern California	P12	1.54	1.54	45.16	45.16	-0.15	-0.15
Valparaiso	Horz	1.54	1.54	80.65	80.65	0.94	0.94
Cincinnati	BE	1.52	1.52	68.75	68.75	0.57	0.57
Mercer	ASun	1.52	1.52	67.74	67.74	0.54	0.54
Connecticut	BE	1.52	1.52	68.97	68.97	0.57	0.57
George Mason	CAA	1.49	1.49	58.06	58.06	0.24	0.24
St. Louis	A10	1.49	1.49	81.25	81.25	0.93	0.93
Davidson	SC	1.47	1.47	80.65	80.65	0.90	0.90
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.47	1.47	70.00	70.00	0.59	0.59
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.41	0.41	38.46	38.46	-0.09	-0.09
Denver	WAC	0.28	0.28	70.00	70.00	0.11	0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.27	0.27	31.03	31.03	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado	P12	0.25	0.25	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.24	0.24	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.21	0.21	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.20	0.20	73.53	73.53	0.09	0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Washington	P12	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.19	0.19	29.03	29.03	-0.08	-0.08
Texas St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.17	0.17	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.14	0.14	80.65	80.65	0.09	0.09
San Jose St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	28.57	28.57	-0.06	-0.06
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.14	0.14	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.12	0.12	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	MVC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Oakland	Sum	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.12	0.12	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.12	0.12	74.29	74.29	0.06	0.06
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Arizona	P12	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
IUPUI	Sum	0.12	0.12	13.33	13.33	-0.09	-0.09
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
California	P12	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
New Orleans	ind	0.10	0.10	18.18	18.18	-0.07	-0.07
Cal Poly	BW	0.10	0.10	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
The Citadel	SC	0.10	0.10	21.43	21.43	-0.06	-0.06
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
DePaul	BE	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Western Illinois	Sum	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	BE	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	BE	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Charlotte	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.07	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Brigham Young	WCC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
St. Mary's	WCC	0.05	0.05	81.25	81.25	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.00	10.00	-0.04	-0.04
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.04	0.04	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.04	0.04	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.04	0.04	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.04	0.04	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.04	0.04	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.04	0.04	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.04	0.04	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	AE	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Maryland	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.02	0.02	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00