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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


New Mexico

Conference:MWC
Expected RPI:86.0
Current RPI:86
Expected SOS:70
Current SOS:70
Current Record:17-14
Expected Record:17-14
Current Conf Record:10-9
Expected Conf Record:10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:7-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC Record:7-5
Expected OOC RPI:94
Expected OOC SOS:50



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-1486.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Mexico.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Idaho St. (340.0)BSkyH81-70W100%0.0
11-14Houston Baptist (175.0)SlndH95-79W100%0.0
11-18New Mexico St. (59.0)WACH72-59W100%0.0
11-24Virginia Tech (48.0)ACCN92-72L0%0.0
11-25Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWN105-89W100%0.0
11-27Dayton (30.0)A10N64-57L0%0.0
11-30Abilene Christian (288.0)SlndH64-55W100%0.0
12-3Illinois St. (33.0)MVCA79-74L0%0.0
12-7UTEP (222.0)CUSAH78-77W100%0.0
12-10New Mexico St. (59.0)WACA84-71L0%0.0
12-17Arkansas Pine Bluff (345.0)SWACH83-43W100%0.0
12-20Arizona (2.0)P12A77-46L0%0.0
12-28Fresno St. (76.0)MWCH78-73W100%0.0
1-1San Diego St. (98.0)MWCA62-68W100%0.0
1-4Utah St. (181.0)MWCA79-75L0%0.0
1-7Nevada (29.0)MWCH104-105L0%0.0
1-10UNLV (242.0)MWCH66-71L0%0.0
1-14Colorado St. (66.0)MWCA71-84W100%0.0
1-17Boise St. (72.0)MWCA70-81W100%0.0
1-21Wyoming (152.0)MWCH78-71W100%0.0
1-24Utah St. (181.0)MWCH74-61W100%0.0
1-28Nevada (29.0)MWCA82-65L0%0.0
2-1UNLV (242.0)MWCA77-80W100%0.0
2-4San Jose St. (191.0)MWCH68-78L0%0.0
2-8Air Force (250.0)MWCA67-74W100%0.0
2-14Boise St. (72.0)MWCH78-73W100%0.0
2-18Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA71-61L0%0.0
2-21Colorado St. (66.0)MWCH56-68L0%0.0
2-25Wyoming (152.0)MWCA82-71L0%0.0
3-4San Diego St. (98.0)MWCH64-59W100%0.0
3-9Fresno St. (76.0)MWCN65-60L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Mexico's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


New Mexico's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  New Mexico.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
New MexicoMWC26.4026.4053.2853.281.731.73
Fresno St.MWC5.625.6259.2659.261.041.04
Colorado St.MWC4.224.2266.6766.671.411.41
NevadaMWC4.214.2181.2581.252.632.63
San Diego St.MWC4.174.1760.0060.000.830.83
Boise St.MWC4.114.1166.6766.671.371.37
Utah St.MWC4.114.1142.8642.86-0.59-0.59
WyomingMWC4.044.0453.5753.570.290.29
UNLVMWC4.034.0333.3333.33-1.34-1.34
New Mexico St.WAC3.353.3585.7185.712.402.40
Air ForceMWC2.662.6633.3333.33-0.89-0.89
San Jose St.MWC2.552.5540.7440.74-0.47-0.47
Idaho St.BSky1.751.7513.7913.79-1.27-1.27
UTEPCUSA1.721.7246.6746.67-0.11-0.11
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.701.7037.0437.04-0.44-0.44
Houston BaptistSlnd1.651.6552.0052.000.070.07
Abilene ChristianSlnd1.641.6437.5037.50-0.41-0.41
ArizonaP121.611.6187.8887.881.221.22
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC1.611.6120.6920.69-0.95-0.95
DaytonA101.611.6175.8675.860.830.83
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6180.6580.650.990.99
Virginia TechACC1.611.6167.7467.740.570.57
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.270.2767.8667.860.090.09
UC IrvineBW0.260.2657.5857.580.040.04
OregonP120.230.2384.8584.850.160.16
Grand CanyonWAC0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.200.2046.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.200.2045.4545.45-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
MontanaBSky0.190.1950.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1848.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.180.1831.2531.25-0.07-0.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.180.1832.0032.00-0.06-0.06
Long Beach St.BW0.160.1640.6240.62-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1610.3410.34-0.13-0.13
UMKCWAC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.160.1656.6756.670.020.02
Oregon St.P120.150.1512.9012.90-0.11-0.11
CaliforniaP120.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
New OrleansSlnd0.150.1560.7160.710.030.03
Cal PolyBW0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
Cal St. FullertonBW0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
DenverSum0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
UTSACUSA0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
EvansvilleMVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
DrakeMVC0.130.1320.6920.69-0.08-0.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
StanfordP120.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1360.7160.710.030.03
Southern IllinoisMVC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
ColoradoP120.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1237.0437.04-0.03-0.03
MarquetteBE0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
Texas TechB120.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
HawaiiBW0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.110.1124.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1112.9012.90-0.08-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.110.1118.5218.52-0.07-0.07
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.100.1044.8344.83-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1087.5087.500.080.08
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.03-0.03
USCP120.100.1072.7372.730.050.05
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
TulsaAmer0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.100.1087.8887.880.080.08
BradleyMVC0.100.1037.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
IonaMAAC0.090.0964.7164.710.030.03
WashingtonP120.090.0929.0329.03-0.04-0.04
McNeese St.Slnd0.090.0919.2319.23-0.06-0.06
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Northwestern St.Slnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
RiceCUSA0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
IdahoBSky0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
NJITASun0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0867.6567.650.030.03
Missouri St.MVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0877.1477.140.040.04
TCUB120.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.070.0796.9796.970.070.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
NorthwesternB100.060.0667.6567.650.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
PresbyterianBSth0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
CornellIvy0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DavidsonA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
DePaulBE0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
DuquesneA100.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
North DakotaBSky0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
PurdueB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
TroySB0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
VCUA100.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
UABCUSA0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
NebraskaB100.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
VMISC0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
FIUCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0528.1228.12-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Kansas St.B120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Miami FLACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
VirginiaACC0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
OaklandHorz0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0358.6258.620.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
La SalleA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
StetsonASun0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
High PointBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.030.0368.5768.570.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
ButlerBE0.020.0274.1974.190.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
UtahP120.020.0262.0762.070.010.01