Mount St. Mary's

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	291.1
Current RPI:	291
Expected SOS:	253
Current SOS:	238
Current Record:	6-17
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	4-8
Expected Conf Record:	6-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.02%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-8
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	289
Expected OOC SOS:	189

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	242.0	0.01%
11-18	259.3	0.55%
10-19	273.0	8.17%
9-20	285.1	32.82%
8-21	294.4	39.21%
7-22	302.2	16.49%
6-23	309.6	2.74%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Marquette (15.5)	BE	A	91-37	L	0%	0.0
11-16	Hartford (328.5)	AE	A	50-63	W	100%	0.0
11-19	Siena (226.0)	MAAC	H	53-65	L	0%	0.0
11-21	Minnesota (68.5)	B10	A	85-56	L	0%	0.0
11-27	Navy (318.8)	Pat	A	64-56	L	0%	0.0
12-1	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	H	54-64	L	0%	0.0
12-3	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	H	76-85	L	0%	0.0
12-7	Maryland (112.8)	ACC	A	77-74	L	0%	0.0
12-10	Loyola MD (83.9)	MAAC	H	54-65	L	0%	0.0
12-18	Penn St. (163.2)	B10	A	72-43	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Savannah St. (214.3)	MEAC	A	45-41	L	0%	0.0
12-29	American (150.9)	Pat	H	49-42	W	100%	0.0
12-31	Albany (208.3)	AE	H	64-65	L	0%	0.0
1-5	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	A	73-59	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	A	45-66	W	100%	0.0
1-12	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	H	66-71	L	0%	0.0
1-14	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	H	64-60	W	100%	0.0
1-19	Long Island (107.1)	NEC	A	77-62	L	0%	0.0
1-21	St. Francis NY (188.7)	NEC	A	79-60	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Quinnipiac (175.1)	NEC	A	69-66	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Sacred Heart (242.3)	NEC	A	80-81	W	100%	0.0
2-2	St. Francis PA (303.9)	NEC	H	64-51	W	100%	0.0
2-4	Robert Morris (111.2)	NEC	H	62-67	L	0%	0.0
2-8	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	H	0-0		10%	-13.8
2-11	Wagner (83.5)	NEC	A	0-0		3%	-20.5
2-16	Monmouth (275.8)	NEC	H	0-0		70%	5.6
2-18	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.4)	NEC	H	0-0		76%	7.6
2-23	Central Connecticut (236.3)	NEC	A	0-0		18%	-10.2
2-25	Bryant (334.0)	NEC	A	0-0		53%	0.9

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	26.26	26.26	27.52	29.35	-11.81	-10.84
Monmouth	NEC	2.82	4.27	25.00	26.41	-1.41	-2.02
Wagner	NEC	0.74	4.27	82.61	83.92	0.48	2.89
Long Island	NEC	4.76	4.24	68.18	68.98	1.73	1.61
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.77	4.23	9.09	12.13	-2.27	-3.20
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.76	4.23	52.38	52.68	0.23	0.23
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.77	4.17	42.86	42.20	-0.40	-0.65
Bryant	NEC	2.73	4.15	8.70	9.96	-2.26	-3.32
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.86	2.63	54.55	55.62	0.26	0.30
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.78	2.57	45.83	47.41	-0.23	-0.13
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.77	2.57	22.73	23.57	-1.51	-1.36
Robert Morris	NEC	2.73	2.54	66.67	69.03	0.91	0.97
Albany	AE	2.60	2.05	58.33	59.10	0.43	0.37
Hartford	AE	2.45	1.93	18.18	21.71	-1.56	-1.09
Navy	Pat	2.40	1.93	5.00	9.85	-2.16	-1.55
American	Pat	2.32	1.85	68.18	66.07	0.84	0.59
Siena	MAAC	2.37	1.84	42.86	43.60	-0.34	-0.24
Penn St.	B10	2.36	1.84	39.13	36.62	-0.51	-0.49
Loyola MD	MAAC	2.27	1.78	76.19	72.50	1.19	0.80
Maryland	ACC	2.22	1.75	57.14	49.12	0.32	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	2.22	1.75	68.18	60.02	0.81	0.35
Marquette	BE	2.17	1.72	78.26	75.18	1.23	0.87
Savannah St.	MEAC	2.17	1.72	50.00	56.36	0.00	0.22
Lafayette	Pat	0.56	0.50	43.48	42.95	-0.07	-0.07
Lehigh	Pat	0.29	0.36	73.91	74.91	0.14	0.18
Brown	Ivy	0.41	0.35	27.27	23.80	-0.19	-0.18
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.38	0.32	21.74	24.58	-0.21	-0.16
Army	Pat	0.29	0.30	40.91	41.72	-0.05	-0.05
Vermont	AE	0.37	0.29	60.00	62.49	0.07	0.07
Colgate	Pat	0.38	0.27	30.43	29.50	-0.15	-0.11
Niagara	MAAC	0.34	0.27	37.50	41.54	-0.08	-0.05
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.28	0.24	13.64	16.35	-0.20	-0.16
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.38	0.23	68.18	69.68	0.14	0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.24	0.23	37.50	38.52	-0.06	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.24	0.21	73.91	75.00	0.12	0.11
Yale	Ivy	0.23	0.21	72.22	63.19	0.10	0.05
Hofstra	CAA	0.19	0.21	32.00	35.39	-0.07	-0.06
Iona	MAAC	0.29	0.21	79.17	80.10	0.17	0.12
Stony Brook	AE	0.22	0.20	66.67	68.05	0.07	0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.19	0.18	40.91	42.05	-0.03	-0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.19	0.18	54.55	54.30	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.23	0.18	33.33	38.38	-0.08	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.14	0.17	48.00	51.88	-0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.17	61.90	55.14	0.03	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.23	0.17	35.00	38.58	-0.07	-0.04
Pittsburgh	BE	0.18	0.17	60.87	58.16	0.04	0.03
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.17	75.00	73.97	0.07	0.08
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	34.78	33.43	-0.04	-0.05
Columbia	Ivy	0.19	0.15	55.00	54.80	0.02	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.15	76.19	72.91	0.05	0.07
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	56.52	50.27	0.02	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.14	30.43	26.44	-0.05	-0.07
Notre Dame	BE	0.18	0.14	65.22	62.65	0.06	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.19	0.14	75.00	75.78	0.09	0.07
Villanova	BE	0.18	0.14	45.45	46.08	-0.02	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.12	73.91	68.58	0.07	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.14	0.12	70.83	68.82	0.06	0.04
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.12	17.39	19.81	-0.06	-0.07
Howard	MEAC	0.19	0.12	18.18	22.22	-0.12	-0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.10	0.12	68.00	69.07	0.04	0.05
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.00	0.12	38.89	43.93	-0.00	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.15	0.12	39.13	42.12	-0.03	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.09	0.12	0.00	4.02	-0.09	-0.11
Georgetown	BE	0.14	0.12	80.95	77.38	0.09	0.06
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.12	36.36	38.48	-0.05	-0.03
Maine	AE	0.09	0.12	50.00	49.73	0.00	-0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.19	0.11	36.84	41.45	-0.05	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.19	0.11	8.70	13.10	-0.15	-0.08
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.11	86.96	83.16	0.07	0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.14	0.11	56.52	55.20	0.02	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.19	0.11	72.73	64.43	0.09	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.11	54.17	49.44	0.01	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.11	52.38	46.68	0.00	-0.01
Rutgers	BE	0.09	0.11	50.00	46.81	0.00	-0.01
Longwood	ind	0.10	0.09	30.00	27.84	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.10	0.09	20.00	19.96	-0.06	-0.05
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.09	47.37	52.87	-0.00	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.15	0.09	60.00	59.06	0.03	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.00	0.09	68.18	63.99	0.00	0.02
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	78.26	72.66	0.05	0.04
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.04	0.09	54.55	56.84	0.00	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.14	0.09	65.22	63.74	0.04	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.09	43.48	40.28	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.09	0.09	40.91	34.50	-0.02	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.14	0.09	50.00	51.53	0.00	0.00
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.09	0.09	14.29	17.17	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	CAA	0.09	0.08	76.00	72.50	0.05	0.04
Michigan	B10	0.09	0.08	72.73	66.81	0.04	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.08	65.22	60.58	0.03	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.09	0.08	69.57	65.87	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.00	0.06	47.37	42.16	-0.00	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.06	38.10	42.78	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	42.11	49.81	-0.02	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.00	0.06	35.29	39.85	-0.00	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.06	19.05	22.37	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.10	0.06	36.36	39.72	-0.03	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.00	0.06	33.33	37.25	-0.00	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.00	0.06	28.57	26.30	-0.00	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.10	0.06	10.00	14.93	-0.08	-0.04
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.06	50.00	48.90	0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.10	0.06	47.83	43.66	-0.00	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.10	0.06	17.39	22.00	-0.06	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.57	0.09	0.05
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.06	50.00	48.49	0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.09	0.06	62.50	62.49	0.02	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.06	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.06	86.36	83.09	0.04	0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.06	65.00	60.02	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.09	0.06	60.00	58.29	0.02	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.06	85.71	78.05	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	Sum	0.05	0.06	45.45	44.30	-0.00	-0.01
Texas St.	Slnd	0.09	0.06	22.22	27.62	-0.05	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.06	0.00	5.37	-0.05	-0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.00	0.06	81.82	76.80	0.00	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.00	0.06	69.57	65.47	0.00	0.02
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.06	50.00	42.83	0.00	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.06	59.09	56.35	0.02	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.04	0.06	90.48	87.91	0.04	0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.06	63.64	56.71	0.02	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.06	86.96	85.46	0.03	0.04
South Florida	BE	0.09	0.06	54.55	48.60	0.01	-0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.09	0.06	95.83	92.01	0.08	0.05
Elon	SC	0.05	0.03	50.00	47.59	0.00	-0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.05	0.03	70.83	71.64	0.02	0.01
Missouri	B12	0.05	0.03	91.30	87.18	0.04	0.02
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.03	40.91	43.66	-0.01	-0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.05	0.03	61.90	58.59	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.03	69.57	65.15	0.02	0.01
Butler	Horz	0.05	0.03	50.00	50.80	0.00	0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.05	0.03	71.43	66.60	0.02	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.03	27.27	35.02	-0.02	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.03	79.17	78.10	0.03	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	38.77	-0.02	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.03	34.78	32.08	-0.02	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.03	25.00	37.58	-0.03	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.03	45.83	46.68	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.03	31.82	31.31	-0.02	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.03	18.18	21.13	-0.00	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.05	0.03	80.00	78.06	0.03	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.03	68.18	69.10	0.02	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.00	0.03	50.00	48.36	0.00	-0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.03	66.67	62.65	0.02	0.01
Florida International	SB	0.05	0.03	33.33	37.16	-0.02	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	72.73	71.71	0.02	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.03	39.13	36.10	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.03	70.83	64.42	0.02	0.01
Samford	SC	0.05	0.03	33.33	35.26	-0.02	-0.01
Temple	A10	0.05	0.03	77.27	75.06	0.03	0.01
Appalachian St.	SC	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.03	28.57	34.20	-0.02	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.04	0.03	81.82	80.43	0.03	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.03	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.03	56.52	54.22	0.01	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.04	0.03	40.00	40.18	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.04	0.03	43.48	43.82	-0.01	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.04	0.03	54.17	54.75	0.00	0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.03	59.09	57.28	0.01	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.04	0.03	69.57	71.51	0.02	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	61.90	63.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.03	30.00	31.54	-0.02	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.04	0.03	81.82	77.20	0.03	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.03	73.91	75.49	0.02	0.01
Southern California	P12	0.05	0.03	25.00	25.13	-0.02	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.03	69.57	66.54	0.02	0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.00	0.03	65.22	65.17	0.00	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.03	34.78	34.61	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.03	35.00	39.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.03	56.52	57.72	0.01	0.00