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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:245.0
Current RPI:245
Expected SOS:289
Current SOS:289
Current Record:14-19
Expected Record:14-19
Current Conf Record:11-9
Expected Conf Record:11-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-9
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:281
Expected OOC SOS:178



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-19245.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maryland (14.0)B10A80-56L0%0.0
11-15Ohio St. (74.0)B10A76-54L0%0.0
11-19Washington (83.0)P12A100-67L0%0.0
11-21Gonzaga (46.0)WCCA101-56L0%0.0
11-26Elon (160.0)CAAA79-74L0%0.0
11-27Furman (167.0)SCN69-60L0%0.0
12-1American (231.0)PatH81-56W100%0.0
12-5Loyola MD (255.0)PatH85-68W100%0.0
12-8Bucknell (183.0)PatH81-73W100%0.0
12-12UMBC (335.0)AEA75-63L0%0.0
12-19Lehigh (168.0)PatA76-73L0%0.0
12-22James Madison (103.0)CAAA73-53L0%0.0
12-29Binghamton (299.0)AEA62-53L0%0.0
1-2LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECH79-63W100%0.0
1-4St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH44-40W100%0.0
1-7Central Connecticut (351.0)NECH73-62W100%0.0
1-9Bryant (320.0)NECH79-82L0%0.0
1-14Robert Morris (291.0)NECA52-76W100%0.0
1-16St. Francis PA (266.0)NECA72-82W100%0.0
1-21Sacred Heart (258.0)NECA76-71L0%0.0
1-24Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA72-87W100%0.0
1-28Robert Morris (291.0)NECH70-49W100%0.0
1-30Wagner (185.0)NECH63-73L0%0.0
2-4LIU Brooklyn (254.0)NECA77-74L0%0.0
2-6Wagner (185.0)NECA72-51L0%0.0
2-11Sacred Heart (258.0)NECH66-61W100%0.0
2-13St. Francis PA (266.0)NECH66-61W100%0.0
2-18Central Connecticut (351.0)NECA76-72L0%0.0
2-20Bryant (320.0)NECA53-71W100%0.0
2-25Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECH54-67L0%0.0
2-27St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA55-49L0%0.0
3-2St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA51-60W100%0.0
3-5Fairleigh Dickinson (205.0)NECA80-75L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC26.4626.4646.6246.62-1.79-1.79
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC5.495.4953.5753.570.390.39
St. Francis NYNEC5.395.3946.4346.43-0.39-0.39
WagnerNEC4.124.1265.5265.521.281.28
St. Francis PANEC4.094.0944.4444.44-0.45-0.45
LIU BrooklynNEC4.054.0551.7251.720.140.14
Robert MorrisNEC4.034.0333.3333.33-1.34-1.34
Sacred HeartNEC3.973.9739.2939.29-0.85-0.85
Central ConnecticutNEC3.953.9511.1111.11-3.07-3.07
BryantNEC3.923.9221.4321.43-2.24-2.24
AmericanPat1.791.7940.0040.00-0.36-0.36
LehighPat1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
Loyola MDPat1.741.7431.0331.03-0.66-0.66
BucknellPat1.711.7157.1457.140.240.24
BinghamtonAE1.671.6724.1424.14-0.86-0.86
MarylandB101.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
UMBCAE1.591.5919.3519.35-0.98-0.98
James MadisonCAA1.571.5763.3363.330.420.42
ElonCAA1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
Ohio St.B101.561.5659.3859.380.290.29
GonzagaWCC1.541.5477.4277.420.840.84
WashingtonP121.541.5454.8454.840.150.15
FurmanSC1.521.5250.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.400.4020.0020.00-0.24-0.24
ArmyPat0.350.3558.0658.060.060.06
Holy CrossPat0.330.3342.4242.42-0.05-0.05
UMass LowellAE0.300.3035.7135.71-0.09-0.09
HartfordAE0.270.2728.1228.12-0.12-0.12
NavyPat0.270.2756.2556.250.030.03
TowsonCAA0.270.2760.0060.000.050.05
Boston UniversityPat0.250.2554.8454.840.020.02
ColgatePat0.250.2541.3841.38-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.250.2526.6726.67-0.12-0.12
AlbanyAE0.220.2274.1974.190.110.11
New HampshireAE0.200.2058.6258.620.030.03
ConnecticutAmer0.200.2070.5970.590.080.08
Stony BrookAE0.200.2080.0080.000.120.12
RutgersB100.200.2019.3519.35-0.12-0.12
YaleIvy0.180.1877.7877.780.100.10
FordhamA100.170.1755.1755.170.020.02
DelawareCAA0.170.1723.3323.33-0.09-0.09
NorthwesternB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
FairfieldMAAC0.150.1559.3859.380.030.03
HofstraCAA0.150.1571.8871.880.070.07
NJITASun0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
PennIvy0.150.1537.0437.04-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.150.1546.6746.67-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.150.1563.6463.640.040.04
St. John'sBE0.150.1522.5822.58-0.08-0.08
Michigan St.B100.140.1485.2985.290.100.10
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.07-0.07
DrexelCAA0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1229.0329.03-0.05-0.05
FIUCUSA0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
DuquesneA100.120.1248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.120.1277.7877.780.070.07
BrownIvy0.100.1025.9325.93-0.05-0.05
SienaMAAC0.100.1063.6463.640.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
DartmouthIvy0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.100.1053.1253.120.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
VermontAE0.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
LibertyBSth0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Penn St.B100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PurdueB100.090.0976.4776.470.050.05
DukeACC0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
George MasonA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.070.0774.1974.190.040.04
North FloridaASun0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Saint LouisA100.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
VillanovaBE0.070.0785.2985.290.050.05
MarshallCUSA0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
RiderMAAC0.070.0739.3939.39-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
VMISC0.070.0722.2222.22-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ArizonaP120.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
BYUWCC0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0783.8783.870.050.05
UCLAP120.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Washington St.P120.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Air ForceMWC0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.070.0747.0647.06-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
IllinoisB100.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0556.0056.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
SamfordSC0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
The CitadelSC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
VirginiaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0522.8622.86-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
OregonP120.050.0581.8281.820.030.03
PacificWCC0.050.0523.0823.08-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
USCP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
UtahP120.050.0575.7675.760.020.02
IndianaB100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
IowaB100.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
MinnesotaB100.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0364.2964.290.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
DaytonA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
LSUSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
VCUA100.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
West VirginiaB120.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0223.3323.33-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
TCUB120.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
KentuckySEC0.020.0276.4776.470.010.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
MemphisAmer0.020.0255.8855.880.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.020.0268.7568.750.010.01