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Through games of Dec 20, 2014.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:235.7
Current RPI:116
Expected SOS:231
Current SOS:39
Current Record:3-6
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:3-6
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:165
Expected OOC SOS:111



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-10108.00.06%
18-11125.30.23%
17-12141.21.00%
16-13157.72.70%
15-14176.86.48%
14-15196.011.95%
13-16216.417.33%
12-17236.719.39%
11-18256.517.09%
10-19274.313.44%
9-20290.26.04%
8-21302.73.01%
7-22313.71.05%
6-23321.90.17%
5-24329.30.03%
4-25330.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona (14.7)P12A78-55L0%0.0
11-19Maryland Eastern Shore (247.5)MEACH41-53L0%0.0
11-22Bucknell (249.1)PatA69-73W100%0.0
11-26Wake Forest (157.9)ACCA83-49L0%0.0
12-2Seton Hall (38.0)BEA78-55L0%0.0
12-6Loyola MD (286.8)PatA65-74W100%0.0
12-9Notre Dame (48.2)ACCA93-67L0%0.0
12-13Norfolk St. (159.2)MEACH67-64W100%0.0
12-20American (103.1)PatA46-45L0%0.0
12-22Binghamton (341.7)AEH0-087%13.2
12-29Old Dominion (43.7)CUSAA0-05%-18.9
1-3Robert Morris (266.7)NECA0-037%-4.0
1-5Wagner (285.5)NECA0-041%-2.6
1-8Central Connecticut (318.3)NECH0-075%7.9
1-10St. Francis NY (253.2)NECH0-057%1.9
1-15Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECA0-038%-3.5
1-17LIU Brooklyn (230.2)NECA0-028%-6.8
1-22Robert Morris (266.7)NECH0-065%4.4
1-24St. Francis PA (124.8)NECH0-038%-3.6
1-29St. Francis NY (253.2)NECA0-029%-6.4
1-31Sacred Heart (147.7)NECA0-019%-10.4
2-5Bryant (208.3)NECA0-026%-7.4
2-7Central Connecticut (318.3)NECA0-048%-0.5
2-12Sacred Heart (147.7)NECH0-043%-2.0
2-14Bryant (208.3)NECH0-053%0.9
2-19LIU Brooklyn (230.2)NECH0-055%1.5
2-21Fairleigh Dickinson (259.6)NECH0-066%4.8
2-26St. Francis PA (124.8)NECA0-015%-12.0
2-28Wagner (285.5)NECH0-069%5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC27.3026.3843.5943.85-3.50-3.25
St. Francis PANEC0.474.4555.5664.570.051.30
St. Francis NYNEC0.254.4330.0042.15-0.10-0.70
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.234.4237.5039.01-0.06-0.97
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.4020.0026.53-0.00-2.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.4030.0038.89-0.00-0.98
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.4055.5660.410.000.92
BryantNEC0.004.3928.5744.83-0.00-0.45
LIU BrooklynNEC0.004.3933.3344.04-0.00-0.52
WagnerNEC0.004.3912.5029.45-0.00-1.80
AmericanPat5.561.9060.0061.971.110.46
BucknellPat5.771.9044.4437.93-0.64-0.46
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC5.831.8733.3342.76-1.94-0.27
Notre DameACC5.561.8490.9176.364.550.97
Loyola MDPat5.561.8437.5029.13-1.39-0.77
Norfolk St.MEAC5.561.8160.0061.681.110.42
Wake ForestACC5.561.7840.0035.52-1.11-0.52
BinghamtonAE0.231.750.0011.18-0.23-1.36
Old DominionCUSA0.211.7590.0081.880.171.12
ArizonaP125.561.72100.0082.055.561.11
Seton HallBE5.561.7288.8966.264.320.56
LafayettePat0.000.4166.6767.650.000.15
NavyPat0.450.3220.0022.16-0.27-0.18
ArmyPat0.000.3277.7868.780.000.12
LehighPat0.000.3044.4454.06-0.000.02
New HampshireAE0.000.3050.0060.410.000.06
ColumbiaIvy0.840.2766.6767.930.280.10
RutgersB100.280.2754.5532.590.03-0.09
NJITind0.000.2641.6743.68-0.00-0.03
ColgatePat0.000.2620.0042.59-0.00-0.04
Boston UniversityPat0.250.2330.0041.69-0.10-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.2357.1453.770.000.02
MaineAE0.000.2111.1120.80-0.00-0.12
HofstraCAA0.250.2170.0076.180.100.11
BrownIvy0.250.2040.0033.80-0.05-0.07
HartfordAE0.000.2050.0050.620.000.00
VermontAE0.000.1844.4457.69-0.000.03
St. John'sBE0.000.1888.8965.170.000.05
Stony BrookAE0.000.1833.3355.24-0.000.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.1750.0058.370.000.03
UMBCAE0.520.1718.1825.30-0.33-0.09
GeorgetownBE0.000.1770.0059.220.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.250.1736.3646.72-0.07-0.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.310.1560.0043.160.06-0.02
AlbanyAE0.280.1540.0055.01-0.060.02
DuquesneA100.000.1537.5034.06-0.00-0.05
ClemsonACC0.000.1460.0043.890.00-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1270.0064.680.000.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.530.1236.3648.18-0.14-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.1233.3341.02-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.120.008.56-0.00-0.10
MarylandB100.000.1290.9168.230.000.04
RiderMAAC0.000.1250.0053.250.000.01
TowsonCAA0.000.1260.0047.170.00-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.000.1250.0050.490.000.00
YaleIvy0.000.1266.6761.820.000.03
HamptonMEAC0.250.1245.4549.62-0.02-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.000.1250.0058.070.000.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.480.120.0014.00-0.48-0.08
HowardMEAC0.000.1230.0043.74-0.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.250.1216.6735.27-0.17-0.03
PittsburghACC0.000.1270.0051.780.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.230.1275.0057.390.120.02
FairfieldMAAC0.280.1140.0037.64-0.06-0.03
VillanovaBE0.490.11100.0082.970.490.08
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.1118.1830.76-0.00-0.04
Boston CollegeACC0.000.1166.6742.600.00-0.02
VirginiaACC0.250.11100.0086.080.250.08
North CarolinaACC0.000.1172.7374.850.000.06
DukeACC0.000.11100.0087.090.000.08
Georgia TechACC0.000.1180.0053.260.000.01
PennIvy0.000.0937.5032.63-0.00-0.03
FIUCUSA0.000.0944.4450.41-0.000.00
TempleAmer0.250.0963.6456.430.070.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0977.7870.890.000.04
ButlerBE0.310.0972.7367.960.140.03
James MadisonCAA0.000.0963.6455.660.000.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.210.090.0023.69-0.21-0.05
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.0942.8649.02-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.250.0954.5552.730.020.00
ToledoMAC0.280.0963.6461.520.080.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.0927.2735.36-0.00-0.02
SyracuseACC0.310.0960.0058.120.060.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.510.0937.5050.31-0.130.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.250.0875.0061.480.130.02
Virginia TechACC0.210.0860.0038.030.04-0.02
TexasB120.000.0690.9179.980.000.04
AkronMAC0.000.0660.0056.150.000.01
CornellIvy0.310.0655.5648.710.03-0.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.0650.0046.690.00-0.00
DenverSum0.000.0645.4555.13-0.000.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0685.7172.910.000.03
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0662.5059.050.000.01
SienaMAAC0.310.0633.3349.54-0.10-0.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.060.0011.94-0.00-0.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.210.0650.0071.260.000.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0618.1827.33-0.00-0.03
St. BonaventureA100.000.0677.7865.110.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0633.3334.04-0.00-0.02
CampbellBSth0.000.0625.0043.93-0.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0654.5564.070.000.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0049.39-0.00-0.00
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0052.140.000.00
DePaulBE0.000.0660.0034.160.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.280.0660.0061.600.060.01
LibertyBSth0.000.0625.0035.39-0.00-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.0633.3346.17-0.00-0.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.250.0672.7367.520.110.02
MarquetteBE0.000.0660.0048.980.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.000.0622.2236.53-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.0642.8636.81-0.00-0.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0681.8282.250.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.0616.6726.98-0.00-0.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.060.0015.00-0.00-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0650.0051.710.000.00
XavierBE0.000.0672.7367.590.000.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0645.4543.23-0.00-0.01
MichiganB100.510.0650.0040.450.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.0660.0057.700.000.01
UTEPCUSA0.230.0660.0071.280.050.02
VCUA100.210.0672.7375.740.100.03
Arizona St.P120.000.0654.5548.490.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.000.0690.9169.030.000.02
ColoradoP120.000.0666.6758.000.000.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0633.3337.91-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.230.0654.5541.980.02-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.06100.0084.930.000.04
Miami FLACC0.000.0681.8266.010.000.02
OregonP120.000.0670.0057.440.000.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0677.7856.220.000.01
StanfordP120.000.0666.6758.320.000.01
UtahP120.000.0680.0080.520.000.03
BaylorB120.000.0390.0073.240.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0330.0038.01-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.250.0336.3648.28-0.07-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.250.0320.0052.97-0.150.00
Texas TechB120.310.0390.0055.360.250.00
VanderbiltSEC0.250.0366.6758.210.080.00
George MasonA100.000.0333.3330.21-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.280.0366.6765.500.090.01
Georgia St.SB0.000.0362.5072.070.000.01
IllinoisB100.250.0375.0065.140.130.01
LSUSEC0.000.0380.0063.910.000.01
MaristMAAC0.280.039.0916.15-0.23-0.02
MercerSC0.280.0344.4444.02-0.03-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0350.0047.880.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.250.0316.6737.21-0.17-0.01
NevadaMWC0.280.0311.1125.48-0.22-0.01
Penn St.B100.280.0391.6755.310.230.00
PresbyterianBSth0.250.030.008.60-0.25-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.280.0340.0041.32-0.06-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0342.8626.99-0.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.0330.0036.69-0.00-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0357.1455.330.000.00
UTSACUSA0.000.0337.5035.74-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.280.0387.5085.480.210.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0357.1457.100.000.00
ArkansasSEC0.250.0380.0072.200.150.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.230.0318.1822.49-0.15-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.230.030.0011.59-0.23-0.02
DetroitHorz0.210.0340.0048.02-0.04-0.00
FloridaSEC0.250.0363.6465.220.070.01
FordhamA100.210.0328.5727.11-0.09-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.230.0390.9190.540.190.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.230.030.009.06-0.23-0.02
IonaMAAC0.250.0360.0069.200.050.01
Kansas St.B120.230.0363.6440.190.06-0.01
MassachusettsA100.230.0354.5552.490.020.00
Michigan St.B100.230.0366.6767.300.080.01
MinnesotaB100.250.0380.0067.830.150.01
MissouriSEC0.230.0340.0032.26-0.05-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.250.030.0017.97-0.25-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8633.27-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.230.0327.2732.45-0.11-0.01
PurdueB100.230.0366.6759.370.080.01
SamfordSC0.250.0333.3330.28-0.08-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.230.0372.7372.580.110.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0366.6764.770.000.01
TulaneAmer0.250.0388.8955.860.200.00
UC IrvineBW0.230.0337.5046.38-0.06-0.00
UCLAP120.000.0366.6754.480.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.250.0314.2944.44-0.18-0.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0366.6749.560.00-0.00
USCP120.000.0360.0036.410.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.230.0330.0038.57-0.09-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.03100.0075.440.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0340.0028.13-0.00-0.01