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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:188.0
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:216
Current Record:15-15
Expected Record:15-15
Current Conf Record:11-8
Expected Conf Record:11-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-2
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:52



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-15188.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Arizona (5.0)P12A78-55L0%0.0
11-19Maryland Eastern Shore (195.0)MEACH41-53L0%0.0
11-22Bucknell (136.0)PatA69-73W100%0.0
11-26Wake Forest (150.0)ACCA83-49L0%0.0
12-2Seton Hall (97.0)BEA78-55L0%0.0
12-6Loyola MD (270.0)PatA65-74W100%0.0
12-9Notre Dame (16.0)ACCA93-67L0%0.0
12-13Norfolk St. (167.0)MEACH67-64W100%0.0
12-20American (135.0)PatA46-45L0%0.0
12-22Binghamton (332.0)AEH69-68W100%0.0
12-29Old Dominion (46.0)CUSAA69-35L0%0.0
1-3Robert Morris (171.0)NECA70-45L0%0.0
1-5Wagner (294.0)NECA85-83L0%0.0
1-8Central Connecticut (342.0)NECH82-51W100%0.0
1-10St. Francis NY (170.0)NECH71-61W100%0.0
1-15Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECA51-71W100%0.0
1-17LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECA54-61W100%0.0
1-22Robert Morris (171.0)NECH59-63L0%0.0
1-24St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH52-40W100%0.0
1-29St. Francis NY (170.0)NECA73-67L0%0.0
1-31Sacred Heart (242.0)NECA71-77W100%0.0
2-5Bryant (189.0)NECA55-53L0%0.0
2-7Central Connecticut (342.0)NECA46-63W100%0.0
2-12Sacred Heart (242.0)NECH55-62L0%0.0
2-14Bryant (189.0)NECH75-68W100%0.0
2-19LIU Brooklyn (256.0)NECH82-65W100%0.0
2-21Fairleigh Dickinson (312.0)NECH75-64W100%0.0
2-26St. Francis PA (179.0)NECA63-60L0%0.0
2-28Wagner (294.0)NECH74-64W100%0.0
3-4St. Francis PA (179.0)NECH58-73L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC26.4126.4153.0853.081.631.63
St. Francis PANEC5.975.9748.1548.15-0.22-0.22
St. Francis NYNEC4.484.4867.7467.741.591.59
Robert MorrisNEC4.434.4354.8454.840.430.43
BryantNEC4.374.3751.7251.720.150.15
Sacred HeartNEC4.324.3244.8344.83-0.45-0.45
LIU BrooklynNEC4.314.3142.8642.86-0.62-0.62
WagnerNEC4.314.3129.6329.63-1.75-1.75
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.284.2826.9226.92-1.97-1.97
Central ConnecticutNEC4.264.2617.2417.24-2.79-2.79
AmericanPat1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.831.8354.8454.840.180.18
BucknellPat1.821.8258.0658.060.290.29
Notre DameACC1.781.7884.8584.851.241.24
Loyola MDPat1.771.7737.9337.93-0.43-0.43
Norfolk St.MEAC1.741.7460.0060.000.350.35
Wake ForestACC1.721.7238.7138.71-0.39-0.39
Old DominionCUSA1.691.6976.6776.670.900.90
BinghamtonAE1.691.6917.2417.24-1.11-1.11
ArizonaP121.671.6790.9190.911.361.36
Seton HallBE1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
LafayettePat0.430.4361.2961.290.100.10
LehighPat0.320.3251.7251.720.010.01
NavyPat0.320.3238.7138.71-0.07-0.07
ArmyPat0.290.2948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
New HampshireAE0.270.2758.6258.620.050.05
RutgersB100.270.2731.2531.25-0.10-0.10
NJITind0.270.2756.0056.000.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.270.2744.8344.83-0.03-0.03
ColgatePat0.260.2646.8846.88-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.250.2544.4444.44-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.210.2141.3841.38-0.04-0.04
MaineAE0.200.2010.0010.00-0.16-0.16
HofstraCAA0.190.1960.6160.610.040.04
Stony BrookAE0.190.1965.6265.620.060.06
HartfordAE0.190.1944.8344.83-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.190.1937.9337.93-0.05-0.05
St. John'sBE0.170.1764.5264.520.050.05
VermontAE0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
AlbanyAE0.160.1675.0075.000.080.08
UMBCAE0.160.1613.3313.33-0.12-0.12
MonmouthMAAC0.160.1654.5554.550.010.01
DuquesneA100.160.1636.6736.67-0.04-0.04
HamptonMEAC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.150.1567.7467.740.050.05
Saint Joseph'sA100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
CincinnatiAmer0.140.1468.7568.750.050.05
DukeACC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
ClemsonACC0.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.130.1368.5768.570.050.05
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.110.1147.0647.06-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.110.1135.4835.48-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.110.1151.7251.720.000.00
MarylandB100.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
RiderMAAC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
DelawareCAA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UMass LowellAE0.110.1139.2939.29-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1158.8258.820.020.02
YaleIvy0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
HowardMEAC0.110.1144.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.110.1122.5822.58-0.06-0.06
South Carolina St.MEAC0.110.1129.0329.03-0.04-0.04
VillanovaBE0.110.1194.1294.120.090.09
Coppin St.MEAC0.100.1023.3323.33-0.06-0.06
PittsburghACC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
VirginiaACC0.100.1090.6290.620.080.08
Boston CollegeACC0.100.1040.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
FIUCUSA0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
TempleAmer0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.080.0859.3859.380.020.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
SyracuseACC0.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Gardner WebbBSth0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0825.9325.93-0.04-0.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
ToledoMAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
La SalleA100.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Miami FLACC0.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
CaliforniaP120.070.0754.5554.550.010.01
OregonP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
CornellIvy0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0558.8258.820.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DenverSum0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0574.0774.070.030.03
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0552.9452.940.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0569.7069.700.020.02
RiceCUSA0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.056.906.90-0.05-0.05
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0575.8675.860.030.03
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
VCUA100.050.0574.2974.290.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
UTEPCUSA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
MichiganB100.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
LibertyBSth0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Oregon St.P120.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
StanfordP120.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UtahP120.050.0574.1974.190.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BaylorB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MercerSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
UABCUSA0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UTSACUSA0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.1087.100.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
DetroitHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FordhamA100.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.030.0352.9452.940.000.00
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.020.000.00-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Michigan St.B100.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.020.0263.6463.640.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
USCP120.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
Washington St.P120.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00