Mount St. Mary's

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	121.0
Current RPI:	121
Expected SOS:	179
Current SOS:	179
Current Record:	18-14
Expected Record:	18-14
Current Conf Record:	13-8
Expected Conf Record:	13-8
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-3
Current OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC Record:	5-6
Expected OOC RPI:	138
Expected OOC SOS:	169

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
18-14	121.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Pittsburgh (44.0)	BE	A	80-48	L	0%
11-13	Hartford (187.0)	AE	H	70-63	W	100%
11-15	American (278.0)	Pat	A	62-57	L	0%
11-24	Georgetown (11.0)	BE	A	72-50	L	0%
11-26	George Washington (147.0)	A10	A	56-65	W	100%
12-1	Binghamton (336.0)	AE	A	70-71	W	100%
12-7	Navy (308.0)	Pat	H	72-65	W	100%
12-15	Loyola MD (99.0)	MAAC	A	79-57	L	0%
12-19	Indiana (8.0)	B10	A	93-54	L	0%
12-22	Western Michigan (128.0)	MAC	A	87-66	L	0%
12-29	MD Baltimore County (298.0)	AE	H	58-55	W	100%
1-3	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	65-72	L	0%
1-5	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	71-59	W	100%
1-10	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	70-56	L	0%
1-12	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	86-72	L	0%
1-17	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	79-78	L	0%
1-19	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	A	75-80	W	100%
1-24	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	50-52	L	0%
1-26	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	76-68	L	0%
1-31	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	77-73	W	100%
2-2	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	91-82	W	100%
2-6	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	74-65	L	0%
2-9	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	A	58-69	W	100%
2-14	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	H	84-70	W	100%
2-16	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	H	89-80	W	100%
2-21	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	H	83-71	W	100%
2-23	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	73-65	W	100%
2-28	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	63-77	W	100%
3-2	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	82-103	W	100%
3-6	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	69-75	W	100%
3-9	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	A	60-69	W	100%
3-12	Long Island (179.0)	NEC	A	91-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	26.41	26.41	63.24	63.24	6.99	6.99
Long Island	NEC	5.48	5.48	60.00	60.00	1.10	1.10
Bryant	NEC	5.45	5.45	66.67	66.67	1.82	1.82
Wagner	NEC	4.08	4.08	58.62	58.62	0.70	0.70
Central Connecticut	NEC	3.98	3.98	46.43	46.43	-0.28	-0.28
Robert Morris	NEC	3.97	3.97	70.97	70.97	1.67	1.67
Monmouth	NEC	3.96	3.96	34.48	34.48	-1.23	-1.23
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	3.93	3.93	20.69	20.69	-2.30	-2.30
St. Francis NY	NEC	3.93	3.93	39.29	39.29	-0.84	-0.84
Quinnipiac	NEC	2.55	2.55	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.47	2.47	32.14	32.14	-0.88	-0.88
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.42	2.42	17.86	17.86	-1.56	-1.56
Hartford	AE	1.85	1.85	58.62	58.62	0.32	0.32
Binghamton	AE	1.85	1.85	7.14	7.14	-1.58	-1.58
MD Baltimore County	AE	1.80	1.80	24.14	24.14	-0.93	-0.93
Navy	Pat	1.77	1.77	24.14	24.14	-0.92	-0.92
American	Pat	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Indiana	B10	1.72	1.72	81.25	81.25	1.07	1.07
Georgetown	BE	1.64	1.64	80.00	80.00	0.98	0.98
Loyola MD	MAAC	1.62	1.62	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
George Washington	A10	1.59	1.59	44.83	44.83	-0.16	-0.16
Pittsburgh	BE	1.59	1.59	74.19	74.19	0.77	0.77
Western Michigan	MAC	1.56	1.56	60.00	60.00	0.31	0.31
Lafayette	Pat	0.45	0.45	54.55	54.55	0.04	0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.38	0.38	68.97	68.97	0.15	0.15
Albany	AE	0.34	0.34	70.59	70.59	0.14	0.14
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.30	0.30	30.00	30.00	-0.12	-0.12
Stony Brook	AE	0.29	0.29	76.67	76.67	0.16	0.16
New Hampshire	AE	0.29	0.29	28.57	28.57	-0.12	-0.12
Army	Pat	0.29	0.29	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	BE	0.28	0.28	74.29	74.29	0.13	0.13
Vermont	AE	0.26	0.26	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Brown	Ivy	0.24	0.24	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Colgate	Pat	0.24	0.24	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Boston University	AE	0.21	0.21	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.20	0.20	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Maine	AE	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Bucknell	Pat	0.18	0.18	84.38	84.38	0.12	0.12
Manhattan	MAAC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.16	0.16	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Notre Dame	BE	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	22.58	22.58	-0.08	-0.08
Rider	MAAC	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	BE	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Providence	BE	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Villanova	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Xavier	A10	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.12	0.12	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.10	0.10	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	34.38	34.38	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Columbia	Ivy	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.07	-0.07
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Temple	A10	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	7.14	7.14	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	59.26	59.26	0.01	0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Butler	A10	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	BE	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Oakland	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	CUSA	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00