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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:177.3
Current RPI:126
Expected SOS:207
Current SOS:9
Current Record:1-8
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-6
Current OOC Record:1-8
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:172
Expected OOC SOS:23



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-848.00.01%
22-960.50.02%
21-1080.70.19%
20-1189.71.04%
19-12104.02.73%
18-13121.76.63%
17-14138.112.56%
16-15156.017.44%
15-16175.618.55%
14-17194.316.25%
13-18214.812.18%
12-19233.66.89%
11-20252.83.52%
10-21269.21.43%
9-22287.50.40%
8-23304.20.13%
7-24305.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11West Virginia (11.6)B12A87-59L0%0.0
11-14Iowa St. (32.0)B12A73-55L0%0.0
11-16Minnesota (36.2)B10A80-56L0%0.0
11-18George Mason (189.3)A10A76-78W100%0.0
11-21Southern Illinois (145.7)MVCA73-63L0%0.0
11-23UT Arlington (67.2)SBA80-71L0%0.0
11-26Michigan (38.7)B10A64-47L0%0.0
11-28Arkansas (43.1)SECA89-76L0%0.0
12-3Loyola MD (198.3)PatA64-57L0%0.0
12-7UMBC (207.9)AEH0-066%4.9
12-10Lehigh (91.3)PatH0-038%-3.8
12-19Bucknell (112.4)PatA0-025%-8.1
12-22Coppin St. (343.7)MEACH0-095%19.6
12-29LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECA0-049%-0.2
12-31Wagner (216.1)NECH0-061%3.3
1-5Bryant (215.8)NECA0-048%-0.7
1-7Central Connecticut (313.7)NECA0-066%4.9
1-12Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECH0-072%6.8
1-14St. Francis PA (277.5)NECH0-076%8.4
1-19Sacred Heart (320.3)NECA0-069%6.1
1-21St. Francis NY (327.4)NECA0-072%6.8
1-26Robert Morris (241.7)NECH0-069%5.9
1-28Sacred Heart (320.3)NECH0-085%12.4
2-2Bryant (215.8)NECH0-068%5.6
2-4Central Connecticut (313.7)NECH0-082%11.2
2-9Robert Morris (241.7)NECA0-049%-0.4
2-11St. Francis PA (277.5)NECA0-057%2.2
2-16Wagner (216.1)NECA0-040%-2.9
2-18Fairleigh Dickinson (253.1)NECA0-052%0.6
2-23LIU Brooklyn (230.7)NECH0-069%6.1
2-25St. Francis NY (327.4)NECH0-086%13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC28.3726.3522.5853.19-15.561.68
Robert MorrisNEC0.004.1722.2241.75-0.00-0.69
LIU BrooklynNEC0.404.1671.4356.910.170.58
St. Francis PANEC0.004.1333.3340.43-0.00-0.79
Sacred HeartNEC0.004.1137.5034.49-0.00-1.28
BryantNEC0.004.1125.0048.22-0.00-0.15
St. Francis NYNEC0.004.1114.2927.15-0.00-1.88
Central ConnecticutNEC0.004.1133.3333.44-0.00-1.36
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.004.1016.6739.89-0.00-0.83
WagnerNEC0.004.1033.3354.88-0.000.40
LehighPat0.001.8342.8666.83-0.000.62
BucknellPat0.001.7866.6766.050.000.57
Loyola MDPat5.561.7833.3343.94-1.85-0.22
MinnesotaB106.701.7785.7166.964.780.60
ArkansasSEC6.651.6983.3365.064.430.51
West VirginiaB125.561.6783.3383.113.701.10
Iowa St.B125.561.6666.6766.961.850.56
Southern IllinoisMVC6.301.6650.0047.380.00-0.09
UT ArlingtonSB6.301.6657.1466.230.900.54
MichiganB105.561.6471.4365.342.380.50
Coppin St.MEAC0.001.610.0017.56-0.00-1.05
George MasonA105.561.6171.4348.512.38-0.05
UMBCAE0.001.6180.0055.330.000.17
UMass LowellAE0.000.3122.2238.49-0.00-0.07
AmericanPat0.000.2814.2931.35-0.00-0.11
ArmyPat0.000.2842.8650.09-0.000.00
LafayettePat0.000.2733.3333.36-0.00-0.09
NavyPat0.000.2525.0037.38-0.00-0.06
DuquesneA100.400.2544.4442.03-0.04-0.04
HartfordAE0.000.2222.2226.33-0.00-0.10
Boston UniversityPat0.000.2242.8654.90-0.000.02
FordhamA100.350.2250.0041.310.00-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.000.2237.5047.37-0.00-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.000.2050.0043.560.00-0.03
TowsonCAA0.350.2042.8653.19-0.050.01
YaleIvy0.000.1942.8663.41-0.000.05
TexasB120.350.1957.1438.680.05-0.04
Stony BrookAE0.400.1728.5738.15-0.17-0.04
MaineAE0.000.1714.2924.15-0.00-0.09
ColgatePat0.000.1712.5029.71-0.00-0.07
FairfieldMAAC0.400.1771.4359.880.170.03
RutgersB100.000.1785.7145.370.00-0.02
BrownIvy0.000.1655.5646.970.00-0.01
RichmondA100.000.1650.0048.210.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.1687.5059.310.000.03
New HampshireAE0.400.1457.1458.840.060.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.000.1416.6729.81-0.00-0.06
Ohio St.B100.000.1487.5068.610.000.05
Texas A&MSEC0.000.1466.6766.180.000.04
PennIvy0.000.1333.3356.57-0.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.1371.4354.310.000.01
VirginiaACC0.400.1387.5078.510.300.08
VanderbiltSEC0.350.1350.0046.240.00-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.1214.2938.26-0.00-0.03
AlbanyAE0.000.1142.8661.11-0.000.03
MassachusettsA100.000.1171.4358.600.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.1175.0056.590.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.1171.4354.560.000.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.1157.1450.420.000.00
BradleyMVC0.350.1142.8627.96-0.05-0.05
Savannah St.MEAC0.400.110.0018.64-0.40-0.07
HamptonMEAC0.000.1114.2942.67-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.110.0020.55-0.00-0.06
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.110.0035.95-0.00-0.03
BaylorB120.000.11100.0076.590.000.06
KansasB120.000.1187.5075.860.000.05
OklahomaB120.000.1171.4348.350.00-0.00
TCUB120.000.11100.0061.680.000.02
Texas TechB120.000.1187.5062.040.000.03
ManhattanMAAC0.400.1125.0034.40-0.20-0.03
NorthwesternB100.000.1175.0066.170.000.03
Penn St.B100.000.1066.6746.420.00-0.01
IllinoisB100.400.1062.5050.710.100.00
Michigan St.B100.000.1055.5658.610.000.02
WisconsinB100.000.1077.7876.040.000.05
CincinnatiAmer0.400.0887.5082.360.300.05
LongwoodBSth0.000.0820.0021.80-0.00-0.05
St. BonaventureA100.000.0871.4370.390.000.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.000.080.0034.47-0.00-0.03
MarquetteBE0.350.0875.0066.410.170.03
NJITASun0.000.0850.0049.780.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.000.0825.0038.83-0.00-0.02
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0875.0066.370.000.03
Notre DameACC0.400.08100.0077.380.400.05
La SalleA100.000.0866.6755.540.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.350.0871.4363.930.150.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0857.1471.520.000.04
DrakeMVC0.000.080.0019.67-0.00-0.05
GonzagaWCC0.400.08100.0091.920.400.07
Indiana St.MVC0.400.0842.8650.11-0.060.00
Northern IowaMVC0.350.0833.3352.84-0.120.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0828.5723.78-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0833.3352.21-0.000.00
HofstraCAA0.000.0862.5043.220.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.350.0837.5037.03-0.09-0.02
IowaB100.000.0837.5037.74-0.00-0.02
IndianaB100.000.0887.5074.490.000.04
MarylandB100.000.0887.5059.330.000.01
NebraskaB100.000.0857.1444.890.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0816.6739.20-0.00-0.02
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0675.0070.620.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0048.810.00-0.00
VermontAE0.000.0662.5071.320.000.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
IonaMAAC0.000.0657.1464.030.000.02
LipscombASun0.000.0612.5033.04-0.00-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.350.0612.5030.68-0.26-0.02
The CitadelSC0.400.0650.0030.350.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.350.0625.0030.23-0.17-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.350.0685.7162.990.250.01
Appalachian St.SB0.000.0616.6729.80-0.00-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.000.0614.2932.19-0.00-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.060.0027.12-0.00-0.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0650.0043.390.00-0.01
TroySB0.000.0642.8636.19-0.00-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0575.0048.030.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.000.0525.0063.27-0.000.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.740.0550.0066.300.000.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0542.8643.60-0.00-0.01
HowardMEAC0.350.0516.6744.34-0.23-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0537.5044.39-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0571.4355.160.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0542.8644.71-0.00-0.01
George WashingtonA100.000.0555.5641.690.00-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0520.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0560.0067.760.000.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.0525.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.0571.4358.920.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0560.0058.590.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0525.0035.09-0.00-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.0575.0051.040.000.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.0550.0044.400.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.0583.3371.480.000.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.0522.2221.23-0.00-0.03
VCUA100.000.0575.0073.060.000.02
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0575.0086.710.000.04
HoustonAmer0.350.0585.7178.280.250.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.400.050.0025.23-0.40-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.0550.0058.040.000.01
ArizonaP120.000.0575.0068.370.000.02
Boston CollegeACC0.000.0557.1429.790.00-0.02
DePaulBE0.000.0566.6735.430.00-0.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0587.5075.240.000.03
LSUSEC0.000.0571.4349.170.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0557.1442.530.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.000.0585.7177.150.000.03
PurdueB100.000.0575.0075.340.000.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.0533.3332.35-0.00-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.350.05100.0078.850.350.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0542.8638.17-0.00-0.01
CreightonBE0.400.03100.0076.630.400.02
XavierBE0.000.0387.5070.890.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Ball St.MAC0.000.0342.8647.11-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0362.5066.900.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.0371.4354.860.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.350.0357.1471.940.050.01
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.000.0350.0060.620.000.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0342.8658.58-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0366.6761.330.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3346.38-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0020.75-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.350.0333.3330.44-0.12-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.03100.0089.330.000.02
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
ValparaisoHorz0.000.0385.7174.990.000.01
DavidsonA100.000.0371.4363.170.000.01
DaytonA100.000.0371.4373.490.000.01
Kent St.MAC0.350.0357.1454.360.050.00
LouisvilleACC0.000.0387.5075.590.000.01
MercerSC0.350.0342.8647.76-0.05-0.00
Miami FLACC0.400.0375.0066.100.200.01
Murray St.OVC0.400.0350.0061.240.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.0342.8655.09-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.0314.2931.28-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0342.8645.30-0.00-0.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.400.0350.0041.990.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.0362.5043.800.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.400.0362.5051.790.100.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0357.1451.790.000.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0385.7157.450.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.400.0333.3336.74-0.13-0.01
ButlerBE0.000.03100.0074.440.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0312.5030.39-0.00-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.350.0387.5065.250.260.01
Fort WayneSum0.400.0371.4370.210.170.01
FurmanSC0.000.0333.3356.24-0.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0357.1452.030.000.00
IUPUISum0.350.0337.5051.64-0.090.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0048.500.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0342.8645.56-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.000.0357.1453.990.000.00
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
SMUAmer0.350.0366.6766.860.120.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.400.0325.0055.33-0.200.00
TempleAmer0.400.0375.0064.920.200.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.00
UCLAP120.000.03100.0086.690.000.02
UMKCWAC0.000.0362.5052.330.000.00
VMISC0.000.030.0016.78-0.00-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.000.0375.0054.490.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0328.5723.12-0.00-0.01