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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:188.0
Current RPI:188
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:242
Current Record:16-16
Expected Record:16-16
Current Conf Record:12-7
Expected Conf Record:12-7
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-7
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:239
Expected OOC SOS:190



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-16188.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8West Virginia (88.0)B12A77-62L0%0.0
11-13Villanova (5.0)BEA90-59L0%0.0
11-15BYU (31.0)WCCA108-76L0%0.0
11-17UMBC (327.0)AEA90-84L0%0.0
11-20Maryland Eastern Shore (347.0)MEACA78-71L0%0.0
11-23American (118.0)PatH68-64W100%0.0
11-26Bucknell (167.0)PatH69-64W100%0.0
11-29Michigan St. (18.0)B10A98-65L0%0.0
12-4Binghamton (325.0)AEH70-74L0%0.0
12-7Loyola MD (274.0)PatH70-58W100%0.0
12-22Penn St. (114.0)B10A92-82L0%0.0
12-30Texas Tech (121.0)B12A100-69L0%0.0
1-3Norfolk St. (227.0)MEACA84-104W100%0.0
1-9Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECA85-79L0%0.0
1-11St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH88-82W100%0.0
1-16Wagner (218.0)NECH89-80W100%0.0
1-18Robert Morris (129.0)NECH69-77L0%0.0
1-23St. Francis PA (298.0)NECA77-83W100%0.0
1-25LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECA75-71L0%0.0
1-30Fairleigh Dickinson (269.0)NECH87-82W100%0.0
2-1LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH95-92W100%0.0
2-6Sacred Heart (338.0)NECA60-73W100%0.0
2-8Bryant (177.0)NECA78-75L0%0.0
2-15Robert Morris (129.0)NECA69-61L0%0.0
2-20Central Connecticut (293.0)NECA76-87W100%0.0
2-22Wagner (218.0)NECA71-66L0%0.0
2-24Bryant (177.0)NECH88-73W100%0.0
2-27Sacred Heart (338.0)NECH65-72L0%0.0
3-1St. Francis PA (298.0)NECH78-55W100%0.0
3-5St. Francis NY (190.0)NECH72-71W100%0.0
3-8Wagner (218.0)NECA72-77W100%0.0
3-11Robert Morris (129.0)NECA71-88W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC26.4226.4254.5554.552.402.40
Robert MorrisNEC5.545.5461.2961.291.251.25
WagnerNEC5.455.4562.9662.961.411.41
St. Francis PANEC4.064.0634.4834.48-1.26-1.26
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3.963.9629.6329.63-1.61-1.61
BryantNEC3.943.9455.1755.170.410.41
St. Francis NYNEC3.913.9158.6258.620.670.67
LIU BrooklynNEC3.913.9129.6329.63-1.59-1.59
Sacred HeartNEC3.893.8913.7913.79-2.81-2.81
Central ConnecticutNEC2.482.4835.7135.71-0.71-0.71
AmericanPat1.771.7764.5264.520.510.51
Norfolk St.MEAC1.751.7555.1755.170.180.18
Loyola MDPat1.741.7435.7135.71-0.50-0.50
BucknellPat1.741.7455.1755.170.180.18
Penn St.B101.711.7145.1645.16-0.17-0.17
UMBCAE1.691.6925.0025.00-0.85-0.85
BinghamtonAE1.691.6920.6920.69-0.99-0.99
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC1.691.6914.8114.81-1.19-1.19
West VirginiaB121.641.6451.6151.610.050.05
Michigan St.B101.611.6175.7675.760.830.83
Texas TechB121.611.6141.9441.94-0.26-0.26
BYUWCC1.561.5665.6265.620.490.49
VillanovaBE1.561.5687.1087.101.161.16
LafayettePat0.450.4533.3333.33-0.15-0.15
LehighPat0.390.3943.7543.75-0.05-0.05
NavyPat0.360.3627.5927.59-0.16-0.16
HartfordAE0.260.2651.5251.520.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.260.2670.5970.590.110.11
ColgatePat0.260.2640.0040.00-0.05-0.05
Stony BrookAE0.240.2468.7568.750.090.09
VermontAE0.230.2366.6766.670.080.08
New HampshireAE0.230.2317.2417.24-0.15-0.15
ArmyPat0.230.2346.6746.67-0.02-0.02
Holy CrossPat0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
Coppin St.MEAC0.210.2135.4835.48-0.06-0.06
NJITind0.210.2136.0036.00-0.06-0.06
ColumbiaIvy0.210.2160.0060.000.040.04
Ohio St.B100.200.2073.5373.530.090.09
DuquesneA100.200.2041.3841.38-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.190.1963.6463.640.050.05
HofstraCAA0.190.1930.3030.30-0.07-0.07
Seton HallBE0.180.1850.0050.000.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
BrownIvy0.180.1851.8551.850.010.01
St. John'sBE0.180.1862.5062.500.040.04
IowaB100.180.1861.2961.290.040.04
TexasB120.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
AlbanyAE0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
PurdueB100.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.150.1553.1253.120.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.150.1581.8281.820.090.09
DelawareCAA0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
OaklandHorz0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.130.1319.3519.35-0.08-0.08
Delaware St.MEAC0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
RiderMAAC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
YaleIvy0.130.1351.8551.850.000.00
La SalleA100.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PennIvy0.130.1328.5728.57-0.05-0.05
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.060.06
Iowa St.B120.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
OklahomaB120.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
HamptonMEAC0.110.1160.0060.000.020.02
MaineAE0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
UMass LowellAE0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.100.1070.3770.370.040.04
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
CornellIvy0.100.103.703.70-0.10-0.10
FairfieldMAAC0.100.1021.8821.88-0.06-0.06
Miami FLACC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
SyracuseACC0.100.1084.3884.380.070.07
DaytonA100.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
FordhamA100.100.1032.2632.26-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Kansas St.B120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
TCUB120.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.1063.3363.330.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.090.0964.2964.290.030.03
IllinoisB100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
WisconsinB100.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
NorthwesternB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0883.8783.870.050.05
ArizonaP120.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TempleAmer0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.080.0813.7913.79-0.06-0.06
St. BonaventureA100.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
StetsonASun0.080.0822.5822.58-0.04-0.04
Saint Joseph'sA100.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
George MasonA100.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.070.0732.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0781.2581.250.040.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
RutgersAmer0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Texas St.SB0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Arizona St.P120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0522.5822.58-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.050.0538.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0586.2186.210.040.04
North Dakota St.Sum0.050.0578.5778.570.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
DePaulBE0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
PittsburghACC0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0548.2848.28-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
George WashingtonA100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaCUSA0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
HawaiiBW0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
SeattleWAC0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Central ArkansasSlnd0.020.0224.0024.00-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSC0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0251.5251.520.000.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.020.0214.8114.81-0.02-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.020.0214.2914.29-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
MissouriSEC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Old DominionCUSA0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
USCP120.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MassachusettsA100.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0244.8344.83-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
UtahP120.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.020.0260.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.020.02100.00100.000.020.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0225.9325.93-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.020.0236.3636.36-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
North FloridaASun0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00