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Through games of Feb 5, 2016.


Mount St. Mary's

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:225.9
Current RPI:251
Expected SOS:286
Current SOS:271
Current Record:10-14
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:7-4
Expected Conf Record:12-6
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:13-8
Current OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC Record:3-10
Expected OOC RPI:275
Expected OOC SOS:167



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-14186.83.41%
16-15201.516.72%
15-16217.032.13%
14-17233.928.91%
13-18252.614.25%
12-19270.43.95%
11-20287.00.60%
10-21302.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mount St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Maryland (8.2)B10A80-56L0%0.0
11-15Ohio St. (97.6)B10A76-54L0%0.0
11-19Washington (58.9)P12A100-67L0%0.0
11-21Gonzaga (50.2)WCCA101-56L0%0.0
11-26Elon (125.8)CAAA79-74L0%0.0
11-27Furman (161.0)SCN69-60L0%0.0
12-1American (256.8)PatH81-56W100%0.0
12-5Loyola MD (245.5)PatH85-68W100%0.0
12-8Bucknell (175.1)PatH81-73W100%0.0
12-12UMBC (324.6)AEA75-63L0%0.0
12-19Lehigh (227.5)PatA76-73L0%0.0
12-22James Madison (86.0)CAAA73-53L0%0.0
12-29Binghamton (303.8)AEA62-53L0%0.0
1-2LIU Brooklyn (274.6)NECH79-63W100%0.0
1-4St. Francis NY (289.6)NECH44-40W100%0.0
1-7Central Connecticut (350.2)NECH73-62W100%0.0
1-9Bryant (312.7)NECH79-82L0%0.0
1-14Robert Morris (304.7)NECA52-76W100%0.0
1-16St. Francis PA (239.3)NECA72-82W100%0.0
1-21Sacred Heart (283.7)NECA76-71L0%0.0
1-24Fairleigh Dickinson (213.6)NECA72-87W100%0.0
1-28Robert Morris (304.7)NECH70-49W100%0.0
1-30Wagner (197.3)NECH63-73L0%0.0
2-4LIU Brooklyn (274.6)NECA77-74L0%0.0
2-6Wagner (197.3)NECA0-033%-5.0
2-11Sacred Heart (283.7)NECH0-080%9.1
2-13St. Francis PA (239.3)NECH0-072%6.5
2-18Central Connecticut (350.2)NECA0-083%10.3
2-20Bryant (312.7)NECA0-067%4.9
2-25Fairleigh Dickinson (213.6)NECH0-069%5.3
2-27St. Francis NY (289.6)NECA0-049%-0.2


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mount St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Mount St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Mount St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Mount St. Mary'sNEC26.3126.3644.6850.88-2.800.46
St. Francis PANEC2.844.2250.0052.080.000.18
Robert MorrisNEC4.744.1827.2731.56-2.16-1.54
Central ConnecticutNEC2.734.1414.2914.18-1.95-2.97
LIU BrooklynNEC4.684.1450.0050.920.000.08
WagnerNEC2.694.1460.0061.790.540.98
BryantNEC2.654.1222.7324.80-1.45-2.07
St. Francis NYNEC2.654.1236.3642.75-0.72-0.60
Sacred HeartNEC2.654.1128.5733.31-1.13-1.37
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC2.694.1155.0056.750.270.56
AmericanPat2.381.9033.3333.88-0.79-0.61
LehighPat2.411.8926.3233.63-1.14-0.62
Loyola MDPat2.421.8733.3335.59-0.81-0.54
BucknellPat2.361.8455.0058.870.240.33
BinghamtonAE2.221.7819.0523.56-1.38-0.94
MarylandB102.221.7286.3681.141.611.07
UMBCAE2.181.7017.3922.51-1.42-0.93
James MadisonCAA2.181.6768.1867.590.790.59
ElonCAA2.171.6752.3851.340.100.04
Ohio St.B102.171.6756.5252.590.280.09
WashingtonP122.131.6466.6760.880.710.36
GonzagaWCC2.131.6476.1975.281.120.83
FurmanSC2.081.6152.3852.130.100.07
ArmyPat0.390.3754.5556.020.040.04
LafayettePat0.330.3723.8125.26-0.17-0.18
UMass LowellAE0.330.3333.3332.88-0.11-0.11
Holy CrossPat0.240.2840.9139.70-0.04-0.06
NavyPat0.290.2865.2265.230.090.09
ColgatePat0.330.2842.8643.53-0.05-0.04
MaineAE0.280.2836.3635.58-0.08-0.08
TowsonCAA0.230.2863.6457.330.060.04
HartfordAE0.230.2726.0926.47-0.11-0.13
Boston UniversityPat0.300.2652.1754.400.010.02
ConnecticutAmer0.280.2272.7372.440.130.10
AlbanyAE0.230.2273.9175.010.110.11
YaleIvy0.190.1972.2273.760.090.09
Stony BrookAE0.280.1980.0082.460.170.13
RutgersB100.190.1922.7320.68-0.10-0.11
NorthwesternB100.230.1966.6763.480.080.05
New HampshireAE0.180.1952.6351.510.010.01
FairfieldMAAC0.190.1752.1752.980.010.01
FordhamA100.190.1757.8954.300.030.01
DelawareCAA0.140.1722.7323.64-0.08-0.09
HofstraCAA0.190.1668.1865.420.070.05
PennIvy0.230.1635.2934.69-0.07-0.05
MichiganB100.140.1672.7367.980.060.06
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.190.1427.2732.84-0.08-0.05
FIUCUSA0.230.1442.8645.93-0.03-0.01
St. John'sBE0.140.1427.2724.41-0.06-0.07
NJITASun0.140.1452.1754.520.010.01
DuquesneA100.180.1466.6758.760.060.02
PrincetonIvy0.140.1170.5974.500.060.06
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.090.1138.1041.92-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.190.1165.0064.310.060.03
SienaMAAC0.140.1166.6767.290.050.04
PurdueB100.100.1182.6178.230.060.06
Boston CollegeACC0.090.1131.8226.61-0.03-0.05
BrownIvy0.090.1133.3331.83-0.03-0.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.1161.9059.930.020.02
DartmouthIvy0.140.1133.3332.01-0.05-0.04
DrexelCAA0.140.1114.2918.63-0.10-0.07
NortheasternCAA0.140.1147.8348.69-0.01-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.1175.0071.280.050.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.1170.0069.360.040.04
VermontAE0.090.1156.5258.380.010.02
Michigan St.B100.090.1182.6181.380.060.07
OaklandHorz0.180.1166.6767.310.060.04
George MasonA100.090.0836.3635.33-0.03-0.02
RiderMAAC0.090.0841.6743.51-0.02-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0830.0033.57-0.04-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.090.0845.0043.19-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.140.0836.3642.19-0.04-0.01
Penn St.B100.140.0847.8343.63-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.090.0871.4370.600.040.03
VMISC0.140.0816.6718.97-0.09-0.05
ArizonaP120.090.0878.2677.230.050.04
DukeACC0.090.0872.7369.920.040.03
LibertyBSth0.090.0831.8232.92-0.03-0.03
UCLAP120.140.0856.5253.350.020.01
Washington St.P120.090.0838.1033.45-0.02-0.03
GeorgetownBE0.090.0856.5253.460.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.140.0847.8350.56-0.010.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.0831.8233.75-0.05-0.03
WisconsinB100.090.0860.8755.900.020.01
IllinoisB100.090.0847.8344.51-0.00-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.130.0842.8635.05-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.100.0666.6762.710.030.01
Kent St.MAC0.050.0666.6761.680.020.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0679.1780.770.030.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0621.0529.16-0.03-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0668.1863.720.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0672.7368.630.020.02
TempleAmer0.050.0661.9058.420.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0686.3685.330.040.04
VirginiaACC0.100.0681.8276.020.060.03
BYUWCC0.050.0669.5773.030.020.03
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0685.7184.560.030.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0657.1457.930.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0653.3355.180.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.090.0640.9140.96-0.02-0.01
MassachusettsA100.090.0642.8639.84-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0625.0025.48-0.05-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.090.0626.3236.93-0.04-0.01
PacificWCC0.050.0621.0524.61-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.050.0659.0958.100.010.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0637.5036.54-0.01-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0638.1037.53-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0685.0085.230.030.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0647.3750.51-0.000.00
SamfordSC0.090.0640.9143.37-0.02-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.050.0633.3329.23-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.090.0652.3848.890.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0631.8232.32-0.03-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.090.0670.0069.070.040.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0673.6870.400.040.02
The CitadelSC0.050.0635.0031.39-0.01-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0663.6465.480.030.02
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0625.0029.91-0.02-0.02
WoffordSC0.050.0638.1043.35-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.090.0545.4542.14-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0555.5660.900.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.090.0554.5555.990.010.01
Arizona St.P120.090.0552.1750.240.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0572.7366.970.020.02
HarvardIvy0.050.0536.8441.45-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0581.8277.490.030.03
North FloridaASun0.050.0568.1869.350.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.054.7614.01-0.04-0.04
ProvidenceBE0.050.0578.2671.960.030.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0538.1033.38-0.01-0.02
TexasB120.090.0568.1861.780.030.01
USCP120.090.0578.2673.130.050.02
UtahP120.050.0572.7368.550.020.02
IndianaB100.040.0582.6177.370.030.03
IowaB100.050.0581.8279.900.030.03
MinnesotaB100.040.0526.0927.81-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.050.0552.1751.560.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.090.0573.9173.090.040.02
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0560.0056.080.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.090.0517.3921.76-0.06-0.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0563.6468.210.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0566.6765.410.030.02
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0341.6743.85-0.01-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0352.1749.340.00-0.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0326.3233.83-0.02-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0327.2730.43-0.02-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.050.0357.1457.510.010.00
CornellIvy0.050.0344.4441.14-0.01-0.00
DaytonA100.050.0385.7181.220.030.02
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0342.8647.27-0.01-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.050.0360.0061.350.010.01
KansasB120.050.0380.9577.000.030.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0322.7324.28-0.03-0.01
LSUSEC0.050.0363.6459.440.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.035.2610.18-0.04-0.02
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0326.3227.34-0.02-0.01
SMUAmer0.000.0390.4885.550.000.02
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.260.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0365.0060.810.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0381.8281.010.030.02
VCUA100.050.0377.2776.780.030.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0336.8432.84-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.000.0363.6461.810.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0322.7323.37-0.02-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0345.4541.98-0.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0352.1747.620.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0386.3680.660.030.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0340.9143.01-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.000.0381.8278.210.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0360.0054.590.000.00
RadfordBSth0.050.0352.3853.620.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0352.3853.680.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0345.0042.81-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0352.6347.690.00-0.00
TCUB120.050.0345.4537.84-0.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0345.4547.97-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0340.0049.74-0.01-0.00
West VirginiaB120.050.0381.8278.720.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0335.0036.57-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0355.0048.870.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.040.0331.5836.16-0.02-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.040.0316.6720.71-0.03-0.02
HowardMEAC0.040.0340.0042.53-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0372.7369.690.020.01
LongwoodBSth0.040.0319.0522.35-0.03-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.040.0375.0072.220.020.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0359.0958.550.010.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.040.0330.0029.98-0.02-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.040.0366.6760.120.010.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.040.0347.6252.96-0.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.040.0365.0068.750.010.01