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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:236.0
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:132
Current SOS:132
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:4-13
Expected Conf Record:4-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-11
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-5
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:139
Expected OOC SOS:51



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20236.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UNLV (147.0)MWCA74-72L0%0.0
11-15UCLA (102.0)P12A88-83L0%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (184.0)OVCN73-64W100%0.0
11-22UMBC (335.0)AEN65-78W100%0.0
12-3IPFW (71.0)SumH73-75L0%0.0
12-5Fresno St. (66.0)MWCH77-65W100%0.0
12-14Saint Mary's (38.0)WCCA93-63L0%0.0
12-17USC (51.0)P12A101-82L0%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA80-74L0%0.0
12-22UTSA (347.0)CUSAA73-88W100%0.0
12-29Texas A&M (18.0)SECA82-63L0%0.0
1-6Hawaii (80.0)BWA86-73L0%0.0
1-14UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWH73-76L0%0.0
1-16Long Beach St. (79.0)BWH96-92W100%0.0
1-21Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWA76-74L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWA75-83W100%0.0
1-28UC Riverside (267.0)BWH68-72L0%0.0
1-30UC Davis (281.0)BWA66-52L0%0.0
2-3UC Irvine (75.0)BWH72-78L0%0.0
2-6Hawaii (80.0)BWH60-75L0%0.0
2-11Long Beach St. (79.0)BWA73-70L0%0.0
2-13UC Riverside (267.0)BWA78-86W100%0.0
2-18UC Davis (281.0)BWH58-53W100%0.0
2-20Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWH71-75L0%0.0
2-25Cal St. Fullerton (290.0)BWH77-78L0%0.0
3-3UC Irvine (75.0)BWA72-62L0%0.0
3-5UC Santa Barbara (97.0)BWA69-50L0%0.0
3-10UC Irvine (75.0)BWN84-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.4126.4130.7730.77-10.16-10.16
UC IrvineBW6.296.2968.9768.972.392.39
Long Beach St.BW4.704.7056.6756.670.630.63
HawaiiBW4.654.6582.1482.142.992.99
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.624.6253.5753.570.330.33
UC RiversideBW4.564.5637.9337.93-1.10-1.10
UC DavisBW4.554.5530.7730.77-1.75-1.75
Cal St. FullertonBW4.524.5226.9226.92-2.09-2.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.514.5123.0823.08-2.43-2.43
UCLAP122.022.0245.1645.16-0.20-0.20
USCP121.991.9962.5062.500.500.50
UNLVMWC1.951.9550.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC1.931.9383.3383.331.291.29
Austin PeayOVC1.901.9050.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.901.9075.8675.860.980.98
Fresno St.MWC1.871.8774.1974.190.910.91
IPFWSum1.841.8470.0070.000.740.74
Texas A&MSEC1.821.8275.7675.760.940.94
UTSACUSA1.821.8213.7913.79-1.31-1.31
UMBCAE1.791.7922.5822.58-0.98-0.98
Loyola MarymountWCC0.420.4243.3343.33-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.310.3181.8281.820.190.19
San DiegoWCC0.280.2827.5927.59-0.12-0.12
San FranciscoWCC0.270.2748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.260.2656.6756.670.030.03
NevadaMWC0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Oregon St.P120.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
WashingtonP120.230.2356.2556.250.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.230.2360.0060.000.050.05
PacificWCC0.230.2323.0823.08-0.13-0.13
Arizona St.P120.220.2246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.220.2275.7675.760.110.11
Air ForceMWC0.210.2140.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.200.2071.8871.880.090.09
SeattleWAC0.190.1942.8642.86-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.190.1935.4835.48-0.05-0.05
South DakotaSum0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.170.1751.7251.720.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.170.1748.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Southern UtahBSky0.150.1514.2914.29-0.11-0.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
CaliforniaP120.140.1469.7069.700.060.06
GonzagaWCC0.140.1478.1278.120.080.08
New MexicoMWC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.140.1467.7467.740.050.05
Portland St.BSky0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.130.1341.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1226.6726.67-0.06-0.06
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1244.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1255.1755.170.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1277.4277.420.060.06
VermontAE0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
LamarSlnd0.120.1226.9226.92-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
DenverSum0.120.1251.6151.610.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1172.4172.410.050.05
BYUWCC0.110.1168.7568.750.040.04
WyomingMWC0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
EvansvilleMVC0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
KansasB120.110.1187.8887.880.080.08
Oklahoma St.B120.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UtahP120.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
Washington St.P120.110.1126.6726.67-0.05-0.05
IdahoBSky0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.090.0922.5822.58-0.05-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0982.1482.140.060.06
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
HowardMEAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AuburnSEC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.080.0878.1278.120.050.05
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0821.4321.43-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0821.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Stony BrookAE0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
UCFAmer0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
LSUSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0657.6957.690.010.01
FIUCUSA0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
IonaMAAC0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0670.0070.000.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Northern IowaMVC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Texas St.SB0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
IUPUISum0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Western IllinoisSum0.060.0629.1729.17-0.02-0.02
NavyPat0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
AlbanyAE0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
BinghamtonAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.02-0.02
MaineAE0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
New HampshireAE0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0539.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0511.1111.11-0.04-0.04
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0564.2964.290.020.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0320.8320.83-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0362.8662.860.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LongwoodBSth0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
NJITASun0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
St. John'sBE0.030.0322.5822.58-0.02-0.02
TowsonCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.030.0320.6920.69-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
SamfordSC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
YaleIvy0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
BaylorB120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Iowa St.B120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0344.1244.12-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01