Cal Poly

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	164.0
Current RPI:	164
Expected SOS:	215
Current SOS:	215
Current Record:	16-13
Expected Record:	16-13
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-4
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	218
Expected OOC SOS:	162

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-13	164.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Texas Christian (238.0)	B12	A	53-46	L	0%
11-15	Northern Colorado (257.0)	BSky	H	64-53	W	100%
11-19	Fresno St. (135.0)	MWC	H	67-76	L	0%
11-25	UCLA (26.0)	P12	A	68-70	W	100%
12-1	St. Mary's (29.0)	WCC	A	86-68	L	0%
12-11	Nevada (171.0)	MWC	A	69-56	L	0%
12-17	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	72-64	L	0%
12-20	Washington (88.0)	P12	A	75-62	L	0%
12-29	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	A	48-58	W	100%
1-3	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	H	79-73	W	100%
1-5	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	H	72-67	W	100%
1-10	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	A	69-67	L	0%
1-12	Pacific (97.0)	BW	A	77-55	L	0%
1-19	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	A	83-81	L	0%
1-24	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	H	88-59	W	100%
1-26	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	H	75-64	W	100%
1-30	UC Irvine (125.0)	BW	A	52-45	L	0%
2-2	Long Beach St. (115.0)	BW	A	50-48	L	0%
2-7	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	67-62	W	100%
2-9	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	H	68-53	W	100%
2-16	UC Santa Barbara (244.0)	BW	H	67-49	W	100%
2-20	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	A	77-60	L	0%
2-23	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	63-60	W	100%
2-28	Cal St. Northridge (254.0)	BW	A	61-81	W	100%
3-2	Hawaii (210.0)	BW	A	61-64	W	100%
3-7	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	H	68-62	W	100%
3-9	Cal St. Fullerton (270.0)	BW	H	62-60	W	100%
3-14	UC Davis (234.0)	BW	N	64-41	W	100%
3-15	Pacific (97.0)	BW	N	55-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal Poly	BW	26.55	26.55	59.46	59.46	5.02	5.02
Pacific	BW	6.40	6.40	62.07	62.07	1.55	1.55
UC Davis	BW	6.20	6.20	46.43	46.43	-0.44	-0.44
UC Irvine	BW	4.76	4.76	54.84	54.84	0.46	0.46
Long Beach St.	BW	4.70	4.70	57.14	57.14	0.67	0.67
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.58	4.58	39.29	39.29	-0.98	-0.98
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.58	4.58	29.63	29.63	-1.86	-1.86
UC Riverside	BW	4.52	4.52	15.38	15.38	-3.13	-3.13
Hawaii	BW	4.52	4.52	57.14	57.14	0.65	0.65
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.49	4.49	44.44	44.44	-0.50	-0.50
Fresno St.	MWC	2.12	2.12	29.63	29.63	-0.86	-0.86
Nevada	MWC	2.09	2.09	34.48	34.48	-0.65	-0.65
Santa Clara	WCC	2.00	2.00	62.07	62.07	0.48	0.48
St. Mary's	WCC	2.00	2.00	80.65	80.65	1.22	1.22
UCLA	P12	1.98	1.98	75.76	75.76	1.02	1.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.92	1.92	32.26	32.26	-0.68	-0.68
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.87	1.87	39.29	39.29	-0.40	-0.40
Washington	P12	1.86	1.86	53.12	53.12	0.12	0.12
Texas Christian	B12	1.72	1.72	30.00	30.00	-0.69	-0.69
Pepperdine	WCC	0.40	0.40	37.93	37.93	-0.10	-0.10
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.32	0.32	32.26	32.26	-0.11	-0.11
San Diego	WCC	0.31	0.31	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.30	0.30	44.83	44.83	-0.03	-0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.30	0.30	93.75	93.75	0.26	0.26
Wyoming	MWC	0.30	0.30	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Southern California	P12	0.27	0.27	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.23	0.23	31.03	31.03	-0.09	-0.09
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.23	0.23	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.23	0.23	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Brigham Young	WCC	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Stanford	P12	0.22	0.22	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	74.19	74.19	0.10	0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.20	0.20	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Portland	WCC	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.19	63.64	63.64	0.05	0.05
Arizona	P12	0.19	0.19	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Air Force	MWC	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.16	76.47	76.47	0.08	0.08
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	23.08	23.08	-0.08	-0.08
Texas	B12	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.14	0.14	75.00	75.00	0.07	0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.12	0.12	85.29	85.29	0.08	0.08
Idaho St.	BSky	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
North Dakota	BSky	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	79.31	79.31	0.05	0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	CUSA	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	7.14	7.14	-0.05	-0.05
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	85.19	85.19	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.06	0.06	74.29	74.29	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	GWC	0.03	0.03	35.71	35.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Houston	CUSA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	23.33	23.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01