Cal Poly

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	219.0
Current RPI:	219
Expected SOS:	300
Current SOS:	300
Current Record:	16-15
Expected Record:	16-15
Current Conf Record:	9-9
Expected Conf Record:	9-9
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-6
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	197
Expected OOC SOS:	299

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-15	219.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	H	79-52	W	100%
11-16	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	H	58-60	L	0%
11-19	Southern California (270.0)	P12	A	36-42	W	100%
11-22	Nevada Las Vegas (21.0)	MWC	A	75-52	L	0%
11-25	Morgan St. (286.0)	MEAC	N	61-62	W	100%
11-26	Mississippi Valley St. (144.0)	SWAC	N	55-72	W	100%
11-30	Sacramento St. (315.0)	BSky	H	77-51	W	100%
12-3	St. Mary's (28.0)	WCC	H	54-59	L	0%
12-10	San Jose St. (279.0)	WAC	A	40-47	W	100%
12-17	Fresno St. (229.0)	WAC	A	46-65	W	100%
12-21	DePaul (198.0)	BE	A	63-58	L	0%
1-2	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	H	57-58	L	0%
1-5	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	A	55-50	L	0%
1-7	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	H	73-67	W	100%
1-12	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	A	50-66	W	100%
1-14	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	A	60-53	L	0%
1-19	Long Beach St. (34.0)	BW	H	69-78	L	0%
1-21	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	H	100-54	W	100%
1-26	Pacific (288.0)	BW	A	61-51	L	0%
1-28	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	A	65-67	W	100%
2-2	Cal St. Fullerton (157.0)	BW	A	83-61	L	0%
2-4	Cal St. Bakersfield (213.0)	ind	A	69-66	L	0%
2-9	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	H	54-52	W	100%
2-11	UC Irvine (254.0)	BW	H	77-74	W	100%
2-15	Cal St. Northridge (323.0)	BW	A	94-81	L	0%
2-18	Northern Colorado (262.0)	BSky	A	81-73	L	0%
2-25	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	A	68-60	L	0%
3-1	UC Davis (338.0)	BW	H	69-56	W	100%
3-3	Pacific (288.0)	BW	H	67-38	W	100%
3-8	UC Riverside (253.0)	BW	N	66-54	W	100%
3-9	UC Santa Barbara (119.0)	BW	N	64-52	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Cal Poly	BW	26.66	26.66	54.01	54.01	2.14	2.14
UC Santa Barbara	BW	5.82	5.82	60.00	60.00	1.16	1.16
UC Riverside	BW	5.77	5.77	42.31	42.31	-0.89	-0.89
Pacific	BW	4.36	4.36	30.77	30.77	-1.68	-1.68
Long Beach St.	BW	4.33	4.33	72.41	72.41	1.94	1.94
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.30	4.30	69.23	69.23	1.65	1.65
UC Irvine	BW	4.29	4.29	37.04	37.04	-1.11	-1.11
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.29	4.29	16.67	16.67	-2.86	-2.86
UC Davis	BW	4.27	4.27	14.29	14.29	-3.05	-3.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	3.69	3.69	44.00	44.00	-0.44	-0.44
San Jose St.	WAC	3.56	3.56	28.57	28.57	-1.53	-1.53
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.84	1.84	32.00	32.00	-0.66	-0.66
Fresno St.	WAC	1.84	1.84	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	1.81	1.81	74.19	74.19	0.88	0.88
Southern California	P12	1.81	1.81	19.35	19.35	-1.11	-1.11
Northern Colorado	BSky	1.67	1.67	28.00	28.00	-0.74	-0.74
Morgan St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	32.14	32.14	-0.59	-0.59
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.64	1.64	65.62	65.62	0.51	0.51
DePaul	BE	1.64	1.64	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
St. Mary's	WCC	1.61	1.61	82.76	82.76	1.06	1.06
Nevada	WAC	0.44	0.44	80.00	80.00	0.26	0.26
Hawaii	WAC	0.42	0.42	46.67	46.67	-0.03	-0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.38	0.38	37.04	37.04	-0.10	-0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.35	0.35	77.42	77.42	0.19	0.19
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.34	0.34	72.73	72.73	0.15	0.15
Idaho	WAC	0.33	0.33	55.17	55.17	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.32	0.32	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Santa Clara	WCC	0.31	0.31	21.43	21.43	-0.18	-0.18
Utah St.	WAC	0.30	0.30	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.27	0.27	72.73	72.73	0.12	0.12
Weber St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	78.57	78.57	0.15	0.15
San Diego	WCC	0.26	0.26	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.24	0.24	11.11	11.11	-0.18	-0.18
San Francisco	WCC	0.22	0.22	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.20	0.20	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Southern Utah	Sum	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	ind	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Stanford	P12	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
UCLA	P12	0.18	0.18	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Montana	BSky	0.18	0.18	79.31	79.31	0.10	0.10
Pepperdine	WCC	0.18	0.18	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Washington St.	P12	0.16	0.16	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Brigham Young	WCC	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	38.46	38.46	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.10	0.10	74.29	74.29	0.05	0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	81.25	81.25	0.06	0.06
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	83.87	83.87	0.06	0.06
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier	A10	0.08	0.08	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	81.82	81.82	0.05	0.05
Texas Christian	MWC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.06	0.06	25.93	25.93	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	96.43	96.43	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	19.23	19.23	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	14.29	14.29	-0.03	-0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota	GWC	0.03	0.03	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	13.79	13.79	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	BE	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00