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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:208.0
Current RPI:208
Expected SOS:135
Current SOS:135
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Probability of Auto Bid:100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:216
Expected OOC SOS:30



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19208.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Arizona (2.0)P12A73-62L0%0.0
11-12Nevada (137.0)MWCH58-60L0%0.0
11-20Fresno St. (117.0)MWCA63-46L0%0.0
11-29North Dakota (197.0)BSkyN43-70W100%0.0
11-30Pacific (133.0)WCCN71-73L0%0.0
12-1Oregon (28.0)P12A82-61L0%0.0
12-7Santa Clara (210.0)WCCH64-53W100%0.0
12-17Loyola Marymount (179.0)WCCA79-59L0%0.0
12-21Pittsburgh (39.0)ACCA73-56L0%0.0
12-29Stanford (41.0)P12A79-62L0%0.0
1-4Delaware (65.0)CAAA82-72L0%0.0
1-9Hawaii (160.0)BWH77-65W100%0.0
1-11UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWA64-72W100%0.0
1-16Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH62-52W100%0.0
1-18Long Beach St. (166.0)BWH62-63L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWA56-58W100%0.0
1-25UC Riverside (319.0)BWA61-58L0%0.0
1-30UC Davis (326.0)BWH58-62L0%0.0
2-1UC Irvine (111.0)BWH50-64L0%0.0
2-8Hawaii (160.0)BWA69-60L0%0.0
2-13Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWA55-62W100%0.0
2-15Long Beach St. (166.0)BWA74-65L0%0.0
2-20Cal St. Fullerton (286.0)BWH59-67L0%0.0
2-22UC Riverside (319.0)BWH69-64W100%0.0
2-27UC Davis (326.0)BWA85-73L0%0.0
3-1UC Irvine (111.0)BWA55-48L0%0.0
3-8UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWH55-71L0%0.0
3-13UC Santa Barbara (107.0)BWN38-69W100%0.0
3-14UC Irvine (111.0)BWN58-61W100%0.0
3-15Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWN59-61W100%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.5826.5838.9738.97-5.86-5.86
Cal St. NorthridgeBW6.046.0450.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW6.036.0365.5265.521.871.87
UC Santa BarbaraBW5.875.8772.0072.002.582.58
Long Beach St.BW4.484.4839.2939.29-0.96-0.96
UC RiversideBW4.374.3725.9325.93-2.11-2.11
Cal St. FullertonBW4.364.3634.4834.48-1.35-1.35
HawaiiBW4.344.3462.9662.961.131.13
UC DavisBW4.324.3218.5218.52-2.72-2.72
PacificWCC1.991.9946.4346.43-0.14-0.14
Fresno St.MWC1.931.9346.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Loyola MarymountWCC1.921.9236.6736.67-0.51-0.51
OregonP121.871.8770.9770.970.790.79
NevadaMWC1.861.8645.1645.16-0.18-0.18
Santa ClaraWCC1.861.8640.0040.00-0.37-0.37
ArizonaP121.821.8287.8887.881.381.38
StanfordP121.821.8262.5062.500.460.46
PittsburghACC1.751.7572.7372.730.790.79
North DakotaBSky1.721.7250.0050.000.000.00
DelawareCAA1.671.6772.7372.730.760.76
SeattleWAC0.390.3939.2939.29-0.08-0.08
PepperdineWCC0.350.3546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.350.3559.3859.380.060.06
Sacramento St.BSky0.330.3342.8642.86-0.05-0.05
UCLAP120.320.3276.4776.470.170.17
Montana St.BSky0.320.3241.3841.38-0.05-0.05
USCP120.310.3132.2632.26-0.11-0.11
UNLVMWC0.300.3060.6160.610.060.06
Utah St.MWC0.290.2954.8454.840.030.03
WashingtonP120.260.2653.1253.120.020.02
Arizona St.P120.250.2565.6265.620.080.08
San DiegoWCC0.250.2546.6746.67-0.02-0.02
PortlandWCC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.250.2535.7135.71-0.07-0.07
San Jose St.MWC0.240.2417.2417.24-0.16-0.16
BYUWCC0.240.2466.6766.670.080.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.220.2265.6265.620.070.07
San FranciscoWCC0.220.2263.3363.330.060.06
ColoradoP120.210.2167.6567.650.080.08
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.210.2144.8344.83-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.210.2151.6151.610.010.01
UtahP120.210.2163.3363.330.060.06
IdahoWAC0.210.2145.4545.45-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.190.1981.8281.820.120.12
Northern ArizonaBSky0.190.1945.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
Southern UtahBSky0.190.193.573.57-0.17-0.17
Morgan St.MEAC0.180.1848.3948.39-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.160.1687.1087.100.120.12
Washington St.P120.150.1530.0030.00-0.06-0.06
MissouriSEC0.140.1466.6766.670.050.05
Portland St.BSky0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
MontanaBSky0.110.1153.5753.570.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
Kansas St.B120.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
WyomingMWC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
MichiganB100.110.1175.7675.760.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TroySB0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.080.0848.1548.15-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
Weber St.BSky0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Miami FLACC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0878.5778.570.040.04
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
Notre DameACC0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0835.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
South DakotaSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.080.0893.1093.100.070.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
DrexelCAA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
HofstraCAA0.070.0730.3030.30-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0734.3834.38-0.02-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
FurmanSC0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
CreightonBE0.060.0678.7978.790.030.03
VCUA100.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
DukeACC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
James MadisonCAA0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
MarylandACC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0584.3884.380.030.03
Texas TechB120.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
VirginiaACC0.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
Wake ForestACC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.030.0370.3770.370.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0394.1294.120.020.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
IllinoisB100.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
IonaMAAC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
AlbanyAE0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
ArmyPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.020.0222.5822.58-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0281.8281.820.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
DuquesneA100.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Penn St.B100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Rhode IslandA100.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.020.0255.1755.170.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
VillanovaBE0.020.0287.5087.500.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00