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Through games of Jan 21, 2018.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:282.9
Current RPI:269
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:177
Current Record:4-13
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:1-4
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-12
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:4-5
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:257
Expected OOC SOS:141



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-15200.00.10%
12-16218.00.76%
11-17234.13.20%
10-18250.79.37%
9-19266.219.18%
8-20281.825.66%
7-21296.723.94%
6-22309.813.18%
5-23320.14.13%
4-24329.00.47%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Stanford (89.2)P12A78-62L0%0.0
11-12California (190.3)P12A85-82L0%0.0
11-18Santa Clara (259.3)WCCA59-63W100%0.0
11-22College of Charleston (108.4)CAAN68-73W100%0.0
11-24Central Michigan (146.9)MACN56-53L0%0.0
11-25Idaho (146.3)BSkyN75-66L0%0.0
12-2Pepperdine (307.7)WCCH91-81W100%0.0
12-9Fresno St. (104.0)MWCH63-83L0%0.0
12-12Bethune Cookman (288.3)MEACA67-53L0%0.0
12-16Princeton (140.5)IvyH60-80L0%0.0
12-19SMU (42.6)AmerA84-64L0%0.0
12-21UT Arlington (120.9)SBA77-56L0%0.0
1-4UC Santa Barbara (107.7)BWH80-79W100%0.0
1-6Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWH97-101L0%0.0
1-10Hawaii (161.9)BWA57-45L0%0.0
1-18UC Irvine (176.3)BWA80-73L0%0.0
1-20Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWA72-54L0%0.0
1-25Long Beach St. (190.9)BWH0-045%-1.4
1-27UC Davis (106.7)BWA0-013%-12.3
1-31UC Riverside (301.7)BWH0-061%3.1
2-3Hawaii (161.9)BWH0-037%-3.6
2-8Cal St. Fullerton (160.3)BWA0-021%-8.8
2-10Long Beach St. (190.9)BWA0-024%-7.8
2-15UC Davis (106.7)BWH0-030%-5.9
2-17UC Irvine (176.3)BWH0-036%-3.9
2-22Cal St. Northridge (335.2)BWH0-071%6.2
3-1UC Riverside (301.7)BWA0-038%-3.3
3-3UC Santa Barbara (107.7)BWA0-012%-13.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.4026.3924.6627.66-13.38-11.79
Long Beach St.BW0.584.5640.0041.77-0.12-0.75
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.274.5212.5015.82-2.45-3.09
UC RiversideBW0.424.5217.6521.82-0.27-2.55
UC IrvineBW3.294.5026.3236.93-1.56-1.18
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.284.4975.0071.601.641.94
HawaiiBW3.204.4966.6762.601.071.13
Cal St. FullertonBW3.184.4853.3354.120.210.37
UC DavisBW0.264.4658.8261.220.051.00
CaliforniaP123.192.0433.3328.74-1.06-0.87
PepperdineWCC3.112.0411.1118.99-2.42-1.26
Fresno St.MWC3.031.9164.7162.070.890.46
StanfordP123.021.9052.6348.720.16-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC3.111.8835.2934.16-0.91-0.60
IdahoBSky3.101.8862.5065.620.770.59
PrincetonIvy3.031.8550.0058.750.000.32
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.941.7947.0650.76-0.170.03
Central MichiganMAC2.941.7960.0057.160.590.26
College of CharlestonCAA2.941.7970.5968.071.210.65
SMUAmer2.941.7968.4269.591.080.70
UT ArlingtonSB2.941.7957.8960.720.460.38
Loyola MarymountWCC0.330.3527.7829.10-0.15-0.15
PacificWCC0.150.3545.0044.47-0.02-0.04
USCP120.570.3471.4368.280.240.13
San FranciscoWCC0.400.3450.0048.730.00-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.280.3366.6766.020.090.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.350.3216.6724.45-0.23-0.17
NevadaMWC0.420.3285.7182.090.300.20
MontanaBSky0.320.3170.5973.150.130.14
Saint Mary'sWCC0.400.2890.4888.960.330.22
Washington St.P120.320.2447.3741.44-0.02-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.160.2258.8257.140.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.320.2258.8263.210.060.06
WashingtonP120.230.2170.0061.440.090.05
ArizonaP120.220.2180.0078.940.130.12
PortlandWCC0.170.1927.7827.28-0.08-0.09
San DiegoWCC0.160.1963.1657.540.040.03
BYUWCC0.320.1980.9576.240.200.10
Southern UtahBSky0.260.1937.5033.78-0.06-0.06
Oregon St.P120.000.1857.8950.840.000.00
Arizona St.P120.220.1878.9576.130.130.09
UCLAP120.220.1865.0062.050.070.04
Montana St.BSky0.260.1650.0047.660.00-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.170.1643.7540.93-0.02-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.330.1630.0036.50-0.13-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.250.1638.8946.05-0.05-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.240.1611.1115.29-0.19-0.11
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.300.1545.0045.03-0.03-0.01
HarvardIvy0.090.1337.5046.69-0.02-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.180.1329.4134.76-0.07-0.04
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.180.1321.0539.48-0.10-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.350.1329.4133.20-0.14-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.340.1343.7549.13-0.04-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.240.1380.9583.260.150.08
UtahP120.090.1263.1659.710.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.080.1245.0041.33-0.01-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.090.1246.6746.97-0.01-0.01
Utah St.MWC0.160.1245.0045.49-0.02-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.230.1278.9577.380.130.07
Miami FLACC0.180.1077.7870.480.100.04
HowardMEAC0.170.1010.5327.29-0.14-0.04
TroySB0.170.1035.2942.76-0.05-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.080.1037.5031.76-0.02-0.03
George MasonA100.170.1045.0041.30-0.02-0.02
MichiganB100.090.1076.1970.740.050.04
ValparaisoMVC0.080.1047.3748.77-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.090.1052.9452.230.010.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.090.0929.4139.63-0.04-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.160.0968.4263.960.060.03
Weber St.BSky0.160.0956.2557.400.020.01
San Diego St.MWC0.160.0958.8262.820.030.02
SeattleWAC0.080.0957.8954.500.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.160.0963.1663.220.040.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.160.0927.7838.14-0.07-0.02
OregonP120.080.0965.0063.850.020.03
South FloridaAmer0.160.0935.0026.12-0.05-0.04
DenverSum0.150.0933.3336.48-0.05-0.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.150.0926.6729.04-0.07-0.04
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0766.6755.940.030.01
DavidsonA100.090.0758.8261.450.020.02
AkronMAC0.090.0647.0644.91-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.090.0661.1158.700.020.01
BinghamtonAE0.090.0642.1139.94-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.000.0650.0045.140.00-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.090.0620.0032.25-0.05-0.02
CornellIvy0.090.0633.3333.23-0.03-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.0621.4326.350.00-0.03
DelawareCAA0.080.0647.3743.02-0.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.080.0630.0030.99-0.03-0.02
ElonCAA0.080.0652.6351.080.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0670.0071.230.000.03
HofstraCAA0.080.0657.8959.490.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.0625.0028.240.00-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.090.0644.4444.92-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.000.0650.0054.890.000.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.0625.0028.01-0.04-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.080.0645.0048.56-0.01-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0644.4450.31-0.010.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0641.1839.160.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.090.0647.0648.41-0.01-0.00
PennIvy0.090.0664.7162.720.030.02
PittsburghACC0.090.0640.0030.87-0.02-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0657.8958.850.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0611.7612.81-0.06-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0642.1143.51-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.090.0666.6767.700.030.02
TowsonCAA0.160.0663.1665.970.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0622.2227.33-0.05-0.03
UNLVMWC0.000.0673.6865.260.000.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0664.7159.990.000.01
WyomingMWC0.000.0661.1156.830.000.01
YaleIvy0.000.0641.1847.560.00-0.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.160.0627.7831.71-0.07-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.160.0638.8935.37-0.03-0.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.069.5217.900.00-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0610.0019.63-0.07-0.04
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.080.0615.7920.91-0.06-0.04
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.0618.7536.820.00-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.160.0678.9576.990.090.03
North TexasCUSA0.160.0644.4446.65-0.02-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0633.3337.23-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.000.0666.6765.370.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0666.6765.520.000.02
Kansas St.B120.070.0673.6862.720.030.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0683.3381.370.050.04
Michigan St.B100.000.0685.0083.200.000.04
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6763.200.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0666.6759.820.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0683.3384.240.050.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.320.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0672.2272.980.030.03
Texas St.SB0.000.0657.8950.210.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.0684.2178.170.000.03
ColoradoP120.000.0660.0053.720.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.150.0644.4450.08-0.020.00
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0689.4785.550.060.04
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0642.1132.470.00-0.02
HoustonAmer0.000.0678.9572.990.000.03
TulaneAmer0.150.0663.1657.890.040.01
UCFAmer0.070.0668.4260.860.030.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0368.4264.200.030.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0358.8249.760.02-0.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0372.2274.930.000.02
ButlerBE0.090.0366.6763.070.030.01
CharlotteCUSA0.080.0323.5325.64-0.04-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0352.6347.520.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.090.0323.5332.57-0.05-0.01
George WashingtonA100.090.0345.0043.48-0.01-0.00
High PointBSth0.080.0343.7549.23-0.01-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0338.8943.43-0.02-0.00
LafayettePat0.090.0322.2227.47-0.05-0.01
LehighPat0.090.0338.8944.75-0.02-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.000.0347.0641.410.00-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0372.2274.710.040.02
MonmouthMAAC0.090.0327.7841.03-0.04-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.090.0350.0051.380.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.080.0383.3381.430.050.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.090.0350.0051.640.000.00
SienaMAAC0.080.0328.5729.94-0.04-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0336.8432.76-0.02-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0357.8953.190.010.00
UMKCWAC0.090.0321.0524.75-0.05-0.02
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.660.030.02
Boston UniversityPat0.080.0350.0053.260.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.030.009.09-0.08-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.080.0337.5037.68-0.02-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.080.0352.6343.110.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.080.0336.8444.11-0.02-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0320.0041.730.00-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0333.3333.77-0.03-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0316.6724.91-0.05-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.0355.5656.740.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.0343.7554.110.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0368.4254.090.030.00
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0330.0032.52-0.03-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.0327.7834.500.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0333.3336.93-0.03-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.070.0368.4258.980.030.01
Arkansas St.SB0.070.0327.7831.11-0.03-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0345.0049.29-0.01-0.00
CreightonBE0.070.0375.0070.700.040.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.070.0357.8966.260.010.01
Little RockSB0.070.0322.2225.25-0.04-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.070.0357.1453.050.010.00
RiceCUSA0.070.0311.1117.68-0.06-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.070.0350.0045.870.00-0.00
VCUA100.080.0360.0059.700.020.01
WoffordSC0.080.0368.7563.690.030.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0352.6347.390.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.070.0373.6871.560.030.01
KansasB120.070.0384.2179.750.050.02
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0058.540.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.070.0337.5045.24-0.02-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.070.0380.0075.060.040.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.070.037.1414.82-0.06-0.02
Ohio St.B100.070.0380.9576.520.050.02
TCUB120.070.0373.6865.600.030.01
TempleAmer0.070.0352.6351.740.000.00
TulsaAmer0.000.0355.0053.320.000.00
UMBCAE0.070.0355.5655.540.010.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.070.0368.4270.810.030.01