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Through games of Feb 22, 2017.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:314.5
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:296
Current SOS:246
Current Record:6-18
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:3-9
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-11
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:165



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-18274.12.48%
9-19298.118.39%
8-20314.239.78%
7-21323.831.17%
6-22330.08.17%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pepperdine (228.0)WCCA77-68L0%0.0
11-13Arizona St. (138.1)P12A96-74L0%0.0
11-23Northern Illinois (217.2)MACA64-68W100%0.0
11-25Illinois Chicago (241.3)HorzN84-71L0%0.0
11-26Elon (135.4)CAAN66-72L0%0.0
12-1UTSA (301.2)CUSAH59-47W100%0.0
12-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.5)SlndH82-70W100%0.0
12-10Fresno St. (97.2)MWCA73-59L0%0.0
12-17California (49.9)P12A81-55L0%0.0
12-20Washington (195.0)P12A77-61L0%0.0
12-28Grand Canyon (149.6)WACA71-64L0%0.0
12-31Princeton (56.6)IvyA81-52L0%0.0
1-7UC Davis (206.3)BWA68-64L0%0.0
1-12Cal St. Fullerton (292.2)BWH74-87L0%0.0
1-14UC Santa Barbara (328.1)BWA58-53L0%0.0
1-18UC Irvine (151.4)BWH48-70L0%0.0
1-21Long Beach St. (199.4)BWH92-98L0%0.0
1-26UC Irvine (151.4)BWA66-79W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Fullerton (292.2)BWA81-71L0%0.0
2-2UC Davis (206.3)BWH74-70W100%0.0
2-4UC Riverside (319.3)BWH56-67L0%0.0
2-9Hawaii (287.4)BWA74-65L0%0.0
2-15Cal St. Northridge (266.3)BWA71-85W100%0.0
2-18Hawaii (287.4)BWH61-82L0%0.0
2-23Long Beach St. (199.4)BWA0-021%-8.8
2-25UC Riverside (319.3)BWA0-038%-3.3
3-2Cal St. Northridge (266.3)BWH0-048%-0.6
3-4UC Santa Barbara (328.1)BWH0-071%5.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.3226.4027.7829.98-11.70-10.57
Long Beach St.BW2.924.5438.4639.55-0.67-0.95
UC IrvineBW4.884.5152.0054.750.200.43
HawaiiBW4.854.5043.4843.41-0.63-0.59
UC DavisBW4.804.5056.5256.370.630.57
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.794.4945.4544.64-0.25-0.48
Cal St. FullertonBW4.874.4945.4545.80-0.44-0.38
UC RiversideBW2.924.4922.7323.99-1.59-2.33
UC Santa BarbaraBW2.874.468.7010.89-2.37-3.49
CaliforniaP122.402.0365.3865.040.740.61
WashingtonP122.322.0030.7730.19-0.89-0.79
Northern IllinoisMAC2.211.9150.0049.160.00-0.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz2.251.9142.3141.14-0.35-0.34
Arizona St.P122.241.9044.4442.22-0.25-0.30
Grand CanyonWAC2.171.8964.0064.190.610.53
UTSACUSA2.211.8837.5037.25-0.55-0.48
PrincetonIvy2.211.8871.4373.000.950.86
ElonCAA2.161.8553.8555.360.170.20
PepperdineWCC2.121.8526.9225.86-0.98-0.89
Fresno St.MWC2.121.8256.0056.190.260.22
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.121.8263.6464.530.580.53
UCLAP120.290.4188.8988.050.220.31
UtahP120.280.2860.0060.170.060.06
ArizonaP120.310.2789.2987.680.240.20
PortlandWCC0.250.2629.6329.44-0.10-0.11
Utah ValleyWAC0.290.2534.7836.63-0.09-0.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.280.2550.0049.560.00-0.00
USCP120.200.2477.7875.870.110.13
Oregon St.P120.230.2414.2913.58-0.17-0.18
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.170.2369.5771.400.070.10
NevadaMWC0.240.2278.5778.260.140.12
PacificWCC0.280.2232.1432.21-0.10-0.08
SeattleWAC0.250.2239.1337.81-0.05-0.05
StanfordP120.240.2150.0047.370.00-0.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2183.3384.080.160.14
Nebraska OmahaSum0.220.2051.8551.810.010.01
UNLVMWC0.170.2035.7134.80-0.05-0.06
San DiegoWCC0.210.1940.7440.12-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.120.1664.2964.460.030.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.160.1688.8989.350.130.12
San Diego St.MWC0.200.1557.6958.100.030.02
OregonP120.190.1585.7185.930.140.11
South Dakota St.Sum0.190.1542.8643.32-0.03-0.02
ColoradoP120.150.1555.5655.660.020.02
Washington St.P120.150.1542.3139.94-0.02-0.03
LamarSlnd0.170.1350.0052.050.000.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.1328.0028.37-0.08-0.06
Boise St.MWC0.090.1364.0064.920.020.04
New MexicoMWC0.130.1357.1456.440.020.02
Texas St.SB0.170.1354.1753.210.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1346.1546.35-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.160.1340.9144.15-0.03-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.160.1334.6233.56-0.05-0.04
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1330.4331.13-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.170.1324.0022.54-0.09-0.07
FIUCUSA0.120.1216.0018.13-0.08-0.08
Colorado St.MWC0.120.1265.3864.150.040.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.080.1237.5039.90-0.02-0.02
North CarolinaACC0.120.1282.1480.660.080.08
OaklandHorz0.160.1274.0773.500.080.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.160.1223.0823.14-0.09-0.07
MilwaukeeHorz0.150.1225.0026.25-0.08-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.160.1240.0041.64-0.03-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.090.1051.8551.660.000.00
MontanaBSky0.080.1050.0050.340.000.00
YaleIvy0.130.1059.0960.220.020.02
BYUWCC0.120.1065.5264.140.040.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0922.2224.27-0.07-0.05
Central MichiganMAC0.120.0953.8551.910.010.00
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.0914.8115.43-0.09-0.07
Seton HallBE0.120.0962.9661.760.030.02
Western MichiganMAC0.080.0942.3143.63-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.120.0953.8553.510.010.01
DrakeMVC0.120.0922.2223.45-0.07-0.05
IdahoBSky0.120.0947.8350.77-0.010.00
Chicago St.WAC0.080.0912.0011.80-0.06-0.07
Weber St.BSky0.120.0960.8760.770.030.02
AkronMAC0.120.0977.7876.390.070.05
Utah St.MWC0.120.0942.3143.98-0.02-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.120.09100.0099.810.120.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.120.0969.2370.270.050.04
LouisvilleACC0.080.0978.5778.520.040.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0736.3636.47-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.090.0737.5037.60-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0740.9140.59-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.050.0725.0025.31-0.02-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0726.0925.97-0.02-0.03
DenverSum0.050.0757.1456.680.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0766.6765.300.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0742.8645.36-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0731.8233.09-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0722.7323.17-0.02-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.050.0729.1731.48-0.02-0.03
PennIvy0.090.0747.8350.32-0.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0752.1753.700.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0728.0028.91-0.04-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0716.0016.87-0.03-0.04
IonaMAAC0.040.0762.0762.320.010.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0751.8551.270.000.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0744.0045.06-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.040.0785.7185.540.030.05
Southern UtahBSky0.090.0712.0013.36-0.07-0.05
St. John'sBE0.050.0742.8642.05-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0648.1548.38-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.040.0662.9661.340.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0625.9327.44-0.04-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0682.1481.630.050.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0635.7135.66-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.080.0655.5655.100.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0630.7729.92-0.03-0.03
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0650.0046.860.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0648.1549.49-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.080.0653.8552.820.010.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0627.5928.17-0.04-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0630.7734.71-0.03-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.080.0626.9225.66-0.04-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.040.0641.6742.37-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0625.0026.71-0.04-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0671.4372.700.030.03
DelawareCAA0.040.0637.0435.10-0.01-0.02
DetroitHorz0.080.0622.2222.38-0.04-0.03
DrexelCAA0.080.0628.5729.06-0.03-0.03
DukeACC0.080.0678.5776.170.040.03
Green BayHorz0.080.0657.6958.300.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0642.8642.57-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.080.0625.0026.38-0.04-0.03
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0665.3864.780.030.02
NortheasternCAA0.040.0650.0048.510.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.040.0662.9662.600.010.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0634.7836.95-0.03-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0657.6956.380.010.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0664.2961.960.020.01
UMKCWAC0.040.0648.0046.99-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.080.0681.4881.510.050.04
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0678.5777.380.040.03
William & MaryCAA0.080.0652.0053.050.000.00
Wright St.Horz0.040.0662.9662.450.010.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.080.0632.1431.91-0.03-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0652.1749.960.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0648.1547.60-0.00-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.040.0633.3334.84-0.01-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0677.7877.990.040.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.040.0673.0873.880.020.03
KansasB120.040.0689.2987.840.030.05
TCUB120.080.0659.2657.620.010.01
TexasB120.040.0635.7134.84-0.01-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.040.0686.2186.330.030.04
BucknellPat0.050.0373.3373.730.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.050.0341.6743.49-0.01-0.00
LafayettePat0.050.0325.9325.63-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0359.2660.160.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0357.6957.630.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0382.7681.880.030.02
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0359.0960.070.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0334.7833.41-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.0327.2728.66-0.02-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0366.6765.160.020.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0337.0438.57-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.050.0358.3359.220.010.01
VCUA100.050.0382.1479.370.030.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.040.0340.7440.19-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.040.0350.0050.440.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0362.9661.410.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0375.0073.470.020.01
OhioMAC0.040.0368.0068.550.010.01
AlbanyAE0.040.0358.6259.810.010.01
BelmontOVC0.040.0380.0079.920.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.040.0325.9326.05-0.02-0.01
DePaulBE0.040.0332.1430.89-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.040.0346.1546.96-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.040.0350.0049.130.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.040.0344.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.040.0356.0055.900.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0357.1457.070.010.00
MaristMAAC0.040.0324.1424.50-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.040.0353.8554.710.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.040.0385.1985.420.030.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.040.0314.2918.10-0.03-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.040.0325.0025.84-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0361.5462.870.000.01
Penn St.B100.040.0350.0048.740.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.040.0338.4640.55-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.040.0364.0063.500.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.040.0357.1457.270.010.00
St. BonaventureA100.040.0362.9663.390.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0360.7159.310.010.01
UABCUSA0.040.0351.8553.220.000.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.040.0374.0773.870.020.01
VirginiaACC0.040.0366.6767.600.010.01
CreightonBE0.040.0377.7875.390.020.01
DavidsonA100.040.0353.8552.600.000.00
KentuckySEC0.040.0382.1481.760.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0348.1547.59-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.040.0382.1480.780.020.02
The CitadelSC0.040.0323.0822.08-0.02-0.02
TulaneAmer0.040.0318.5218.47-0.02-0.02