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Through games of Feb 12, 2016.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:220.9
Current RPI:206
Expected SOS:137
Current SOS:110
Current Record:6-15
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:2-8
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC Record:4-7
Expected OOC RPI:144
Expected OOC SOS:60



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-15170.41.15%
11-16187.79.47%
10-17205.829.27%
9-18224.934.97%
8-19244.020.10%
7-20261.84.67%
6-21274.30.36%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UNLV (121.0)MWCA74-72L0%0.0
11-15UCLA (69.9)P12A88-83L0%0.0
11-21Austin Peay (230.5)OVCN73-64W100%0.0
11-22UMBC (320.8)AEN65-78W100%0.0
12-3IPFW (82.2)SumH73-75L0%0.0
12-5Fresno St. (115.3)MWCH77-65W100%0.0
12-14Saint Mary's (57.6)WCCA93-63L0%0.0
12-17USC (23.9)P12A101-82L0%0.0
12-20Texas A&M Corpus Chris (112.2)SlndA80-74L0%0.0
12-22UTSA (342.6)CUSAA73-88W100%0.0
12-29Texas A&M (26.9)SECA82-63L0%0.0
1-6Hawaii (81.8)BWA86-73L0%0.0
1-14UC Santa Barbara (116.4)BWH73-76L0%0.0
1-16Long Beach St. (98.7)BWH96-92W100%0.0
1-21Cal St. Northridge (270.7)BWA76-74L0%0.0
1-23Cal St. Fullerton (290.7)BWA75-83W100%0.0
1-28UC Riverside (264.2)BWH68-72L0%0.0
1-30UC Davis (265.0)BWA66-52L0%0.0
2-3UC Irvine (75.8)BWH72-78L0%0.0
2-6Hawaii (81.8)BWH60-75L0%0.0
2-11Long Beach St. (98.7)BWA73-70L0%0.0
2-13UC Riverside (264.2)BWA0-050%-0.0
2-18UC Davis (265.0)BWH0-075%7.2
2-20Cal St. Northridge (270.7)BWH0-077%8.1
2-25Cal St. Fullerton (290.7)BWH0-075%7.5
3-3UC Irvine (75.8)BWA0-019%-9.4
3-5UC Santa Barbara (116.4)BWA0-024%-7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.3326.4031.5836.24-9.70-7.26
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.064.6828.5727.66-1.31-2.09
UC IrvineBW2.984.6768.1868.571.081.73
UC RiversideBW3.044.6643.4839.26-0.40-1.00
Long Beach St.BW5.314.6647.6252.07-0.250.19
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.154.6542.8648.91-0.45-0.10
UC DavisBW3.034.6535.0033.15-0.91-1.57
Cal St. FullertonBW2.934.6235.0032.09-0.88-1.65
HawaiiBW5.194.6283.3382.123.462.97
UCLAP122.692.0752.1751.410.120.06
USCP122.592.0473.9170.181.240.82
UNLVMWC2.592.0150.0053.480.000.14
Saint Mary'sWCC2.491.9880.9581.081.541.23
Austin PeayOVC2.591.9841.6744.38-0.43-0.22
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.581.9875.0071.391.290.85
Fresno St.MWC2.481.9266.6763.750.830.53
IPFWSum2.481.9269.5767.530.970.67
Texas A&MSEC2.441.8873.9174.521.170.92
UTSACUSA2.441.8813.6413.42-1.77-1.38
UMBCAE2.381.8524.0026.75-1.24-0.86
Loyola MarymountWCC0.320.4041.6741.18-0.05-0.07
OregonP120.360.3179.1777.220.210.17
San DiegoWCC0.330.3030.4328.20-0.13-0.13
San FranciscoWCC0.270.2952.1749.150.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.280.2657.1455.350.040.03
PepperdineWCC0.370.2658.3360.910.060.06
Oregon St.P120.210.2563.6458.770.060.04
WashingtonP120.310.2562.5060.140.080.05
Arizona St.P120.300.2556.0053.630.040.02
ArizonaP120.360.2580.0078.730.210.14
PacificWCC0.270.2323.8125.99-0.14-0.11
Boise St.MWC0.210.2360.8760.430.050.05
PortlandWCC0.170.2138.4638.04-0.04-0.05
SeattleWAC0.170.2045.4543.98-0.02-0.02
Air ForceMWC0.160.2043.4837.80-0.02-0.05
Santa ClaraWCC0.160.1933.3332.04-0.05-0.07
San Diego St.MWC0.260.1969.5770.090.100.08
Southern UtahBSky0.210.1714.2914.92-0.15-0.12
South DakotaSum0.210.1644.0043.56-0.02-0.02
CaliforniaP120.110.1666.6764.780.040.05
Colorado St.MWC0.160.1654.5552.530.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.210.1658.3360.710.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.100.1647.6249.27-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1440.0045.19-0.02-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.160.1333.3334.95-0.05-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.110.1330.0035.92-0.04-0.04
BYUWCC0.210.1368.0070.260.080.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.160.1360.8759.830.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.100.1358.3358.580.020.02
South Dakota St.Sum0.100.1373.9174.640.050.06
GonzagaWCC0.150.1379.1777.510.090.07
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.160.1366.6767.660.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.1335.0034.87-0.01-0.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.110.1350.0049.890.00-0.00
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.1319.0525.89-0.06-0.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.110.1345.0049.16-0.01-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.210.1345.8342.30-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.110.1343.4842.54-0.01-0.02
LamarSlnd0.160.1330.0029.17-0.06-0.05
VermontAE0.100.1352.0054.840.000.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.150.1316.6719.49-0.10-0.08
DenverSum0.100.1352.0049.300.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1365.2268.610.050.05
RiceCUSA0.160.1327.2728.15-0.07-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.140.1227.2726.46-0.07-0.06
Washington St.P120.200.1234.7831.64-0.06-0.04
Nicholls St.Slnd0.180.1018.1821.06-0.11-0.06
AuburnSEC0.120.1039.1335.44-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.160.1036.3638.95-0.04-0.02
IdahoBSky0.110.1056.5255.330.010.01
IndianaB100.150.1080.0075.690.090.05
San Jose St.MWC0.160.1023.8122.85-0.08-0.05
TexasB120.160.0966.6762.200.050.02
StanfordP120.050.0947.6244.07-0.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.099.0912.25-0.08-0.07
EvansvilleMVC0.110.0972.0073.080.050.04
UtahP120.050.0970.8368.530.020.03
VanderbiltSEC0.100.0958.3359.970.020.02
KansasB120.100.0982.6179.210.070.05
MonmouthMAAC0.150.0980.7781.890.090.06
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.120.0724.0025.68-0.06-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.120.0757.1457.670.020.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.120.0720.0022.24-0.07-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.120.0743.4844.81-0.02-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.120.0756.0055.450.010.01
OklahomaB120.120.0786.9682.620.090.04
Texas TechB120.120.0760.8755.310.030.01
AkronMAC0.050.0782.6181.130.040.04
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0747.6248.05-0.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0755.5652.480.010.00
IonaMAAC0.050.0760.8760.730.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0726.3232.42-0.03-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0760.0057.680.010.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0772.2275.710.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.050.0754.1753.810.000.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.110.0623.8129.52-0.06-0.03
Texas St.SB0.110.0640.0038.87-0.02-0.01
DukeACC0.100.0675.0071.810.050.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.100.0639.1341.06-0.02-0.01
FIUCUSA0.050.0639.1342.98-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.100.0626.0927.89-0.05-0.03
IUPUISum0.050.0638.4638.50-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0672.7370.510.020.03
Murray St.OVC0.050.0647.8350.90-0.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.100.0641.6742.39-0.02-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.0670.8368.090.040.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0613.0415.26-0.04-0.04
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0630.0031.76-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0650.0050.500.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.050.0654.1754.210.000.01
VirginiaACC0.100.0683.3378.460.070.04
Western IllinoisSum0.050.0631.5832.03-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.110.0622.2231.13-0.06-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.110.0614.2924.87-0.08-0.03
NavyPat0.100.0664.0064.470.030.02
Wichita St.MVC0.100.0673.9176.700.050.03
Boston CollegeACC0.050.0629.1726.68-0.02-0.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.050.0643.4850.67-0.010.00
OhioMAC0.050.0665.2263.630.020.02
UCFAmer0.050.0650.0044.640.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.090.0673.0873.770.040.03
ArkansasSEC0.100.0650.0052.940.000.00
BinghamtonAE0.050.0624.0026.42-0.02-0.03
ColoradoP120.000.0670.8365.570.000.02
HartfordAE0.050.0624.0024.55-0.02-0.03
KentuckySEC0.050.0675.0072.620.020.03
LSUSEC0.050.0662.5059.070.010.01
MaineAE0.090.0632.0031.17-0.03-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0643.4843.76-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.050.0633.3330.27-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.050.0659.0956.880.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.090.0682.6183.030.060.04
UMass LowellAE0.050.0637.5037.68-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.100.0641.6739.90-0.02-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0345.4543.17-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.060.0350.0050.080.000.00
FurmanSC0.060.0356.0054.430.010.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.060.0317.6526.60-0.04-0.02
WisconsinB100.060.0362.5056.990.010.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0368.0066.640.020.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.0337.5042.32-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.050.0358.3358.410.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0364.0062.070.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0350.0049.320.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0347.8348.57-0.00-0.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0324.0024.16-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.050.0328.0030.50-0.02-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.050.0345.8343.78-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.050.0350.0051.150.000.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0334.7832.89-0.02-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0368.1867.730.020.01
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0352.1753.440.000.00
North FloridaASun0.050.0362.5064.110.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.050.0331.8232.47-0.02-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0358.3363.160.000.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.13-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.050.0340.0041.68-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.050.0322.7327.37-0.03-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.050.0368.1865.190.020.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.050.0365.2264.330.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0345.4554.18-0.000.00
TroySB0.050.0322.7324.37-0.03-0.02
UABCUSA0.050.0383.3379.820.030.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.050.0326.0928.41-0.02-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.050.0382.6183.030.030.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.050.0345.4546.07-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0331.8232.68-0.02-0.01
WoffordSC0.050.0345.8348.12-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.050.0360.8755.980.010.00
BaylorB120.050.0373.9168.450.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0350.0045.860.00-0.00
ColgatePat0.050.0343.4844.88-0.01-0.00
DuquesneA100.050.0360.8756.270.010.00
FloridaSEC0.050.0366.6766.320.020.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0350.0052.880.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0359.0955.160.010.00
Iowa St.B120.050.0370.8367.960.020.01
Kansas St.B120.050.0358.3356.290.010.00
LafayettePat0.050.0320.8321.68-0.03-0.02
LongwoodBSth0.050.0321.7424.59-0.03-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0360.0062.260.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.050.0333.3335.19-0.02-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0329.1733.75-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0362.5058.940.000.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.050.0342.3146.12-0.01-0.00
NJITASun0.050.0356.0055.640.010.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0383.3378.390.030.02
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0386.9680.430.040.02
St. John'sBE0.050.0325.0023.43-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0368.0064.070.020.01
TennesseeSEC0.050.0350.0048.120.00-0.00
TowsonCAA0.050.0362.5057.720.010.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0362.5063.450.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0321.7422.42-0.03-0.02
XavierBE0.050.0387.5081.840.040.02
YaleIvy0.050.0375.0075.100.020.01