live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Jan 29, 2015.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:163.9
Current RPI:168
Expected SOS:180
Current SOS:192
Current Record:8-9
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:3-4
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:125
Expected OOC SOS:192



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
17-986.90.20%
16-10102.22.36%
15-11119.38.85%
14-12138.620.03%
13-13159.827.74%
12-14181.823.50%
11-15201.412.49%
10-16220.14.11%
9-17238.70.68%
8-18256.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Nevada (292.1)MWCA65-49L0%0.0
11-21Delaware (302.9)CAAH78-60W100%0.0
11-26California (137.1)P12A72-52L0%0.0
11-29Saint Mary's (50.6)WCCA82-56L0%0.0
12-13Fresno St. (220.7)MWCA63-57L0%0.0
12-15San Francisco (186.7)WCCA71-78W100%0.0
12-17Northeastern (110.3)CAAN60-58W100%0.0
12-20Gonzaga (7.3)WCCN63-50L0%0.0
12-23Santa Clara (195.2)WCCA58-69W100%0.0
12-30IPFW (250.5)SumA57-71W100%0.0
1-7Hawaii (181.3)BWA57-61W100%0.0
1-10UC Santa Barbara (120.4)BWH45-50L0%0.0
1-15Long Beach St. (77.7)BWA50-48L0%0.0
1-17Cal St. Northridge (278.6)BWA55-48L0%0.0
1-22Cal St. Fullerton (287.0)BWH66-55W100%0.0
1-24UC Riverside (261.8)BWH68-49W100%0.0
1-29UC Irvine (111.9)BWA67-57L0%0.0
1-31UC Davis (113.3)BWA0-033%-4.7
2-5Hawaii (181.3)BWH0-063%3.5
2-12Cal St. Northridge (278.6)BWH0-083%10.3
2-14Long Beach St. (77.7)BWH0-050%-0.0
2-19Cal St. Fullerton (287.0)BWA0-063%3.8
2-21UC Riverside (261.8)BWA0-059%2.5
2-26UC Irvine (111.9)BWH0-048%-0.5
2-28UC Davis (113.3)BWH0-058%2.2
3-7UC Santa Barbara (120.4)BWA0-025%-7.3


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.2826.4156.0054.363.152.30
Cal St. FullertonBW3.424.8533.3332.09-1.14-1.74
UC IrvineBW3.474.8552.9457.160.200.69
Long Beach St.BW3.344.8242.1151.01-0.530.10
HawaiiBW3.314.8268.4261.901.221.15
Cal St. NorthridgeBW3.334.7920.0024.06-2.00-2.48
UC RiversideBW3.264.7841.1837.85-0.57-1.16
UC Santa BarbaraBW3.244.7841.1849.37-0.57-0.06
UC DavisBW0.464.7876.4769.770.241.89
Saint Mary'sWCC3.302.2278.9573.301.911.04
Santa ClaraWCC3.302.2247.3741.97-0.17-0.36
San FranciscoWCC3.232.1940.0043.25-0.65-0.30
NevadaMWC3.322.1518.7522.60-2.07-1.18
GonzagaWCC3.162.1395.0094.462.841.89
Fresno St.MWC3.272.0938.8935.73-0.73-0.60
NortheasternCAA3.162.0666.6766.561.050.68
CaliforniaP123.111.9955.0046.100.31-0.16
DelawareCAA3.011.9921.0523.06-1.74-1.07
IPFWSum2.941.9241.1843.33-0.52-0.26
PepperdineWCC0.510.4360.0057.770.100.07
Loyola MarymountWCC0.520.4123.8125.03-0.27-0.20
PacificWCC0.530.4036.8433.24-0.14-0.14
BYUWCC0.500.4066.6767.920.170.14
San DiegoWCC0.440.3447.6246.47-0.02-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.380.3375.0075.670.190.17
San Jose St.MWC0.230.310.001.50-0.23-0.30
UCLAP120.370.2957.1455.730.050.03
SeattleWAC0.230.2747.0649.37-0.01-0.00
Washington St.P120.370.2745.0036.05-0.04-0.07
PortlandWCC0.360.2750.0049.080.00-0.00
Utah St.MWC0.240.2457.8955.970.040.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.310.2420.0027.23-0.18-0.11
Sacramento St.BSky0.310.2466.6762.680.100.06
OregonP120.230.2365.0058.650.070.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.380.2326.3236.41-0.18-0.06
ArizonaP120.290.2390.4888.040.240.17
Colorado St.MWC0.170.2085.0081.560.120.13
Air ForceMWC0.090.1738.8937.19-0.02-0.04
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.230.1763.1667.460.060.06
New MexicoMWC0.150.1765.0063.090.050.04
WyomingMWC0.150.1778.9573.800.090.08
Portland St.BSky0.220.1747.0644.93-0.01-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1455.0053.790.000.01
South DakotaSum0.230.1442.8644.87-0.03-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.070.1368.4269.400.030.05
St. John'sBE0.220.1363.1658.080.060.02
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.150.1352.9447.000.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.140.1327.2731.54-0.06-0.05
DrexelCAA0.140.1331.5832.42-0.05-0.05
ElonCAA0.070.1345.0042.60-0.01-0.02
HofstraCAA0.140.1363.6468.350.040.05
James MadisonCAA0.210.1359.0958.340.040.02
TowsonCAA0.140.1342.8639.21-0.02-0.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.140.1357.8956.390.020.02
USCP120.150.1345.0038.97-0.01-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.140.1361.1164.970.030.04
ColoradoP120.140.1355.0052.260.010.01
LouisvilleACC0.140.1385.0078.450.100.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.140.1382.3584.880.090.09
XavierBE0.150.1366.6765.800.050.04
WashingtonP120.140.1370.0063.130.060.03
DenverSum0.160.1142.8646.32-0.02-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.090.1136.8439.62-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.160.1050.0061.990.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.150.1038.4633.52-0.04-0.03
UNLVMWC0.170.1055.0055.270.020.01
SMUAmer0.150.1080.0077.800.090.06
Oregon St.P120.080.1068.4260.520.030.02
UtahP120.080.1078.9580.160.050.06
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.1044.4449.87-0.02-0.00
East CarolinaAmer0.150.1033.3331.55-0.05-0.04
MaristMAAC0.150.1010.0013.97-0.12-0.07
StanfordP120.140.1075.0071.450.070.04
SyracuseACC0.140.1066.6758.800.050.02
TexasB120.140.1070.0067.320.060.03
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1061.1156.260.030.01
IUPUISum0.080.0738.1041.00-0.02-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0763.1661.900.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0747.3749.64-0.00-0.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0766.6768.800.030.03
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0731.2527.76-0.03-0.03
FurmanSC0.000.0727.7831.26-0.00-0.03
IdahoBSky0.000.0737.5043.26-0.00-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.0747.0652.46-0.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0738.8939.73-0.00-0.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.080.0735.2932.57-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.080.0728.5727.77-0.04-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0750.0052.530.000.00
Green BayHorz0.080.0778.9577.960.050.04
KansasB120.080.0785.0077.520.060.04
MercerSC0.080.0750.0052.660.000.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0741.1838.33-0.01-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0757.8957.900.010.01
VermontAE0.080.0750.0055.830.000.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.0742.1147.36-0.02-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.150.0775.0069.800.070.03
FIUCUSA0.080.0741.1840.92-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.080.0763.1663.410.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.080.0745.0046.67-0.01-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.140.0670.5973.350.060.03
MontanaBSky0.140.0652.9455.910.010.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.070.0636.8438.06-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0628.5736.68-0.03-0.02
High PointBSth0.070.0673.6870.420.030.03
Kansas St.B120.070.0657.1446.770.01-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.070.0615.7919.24-0.05-0.04
NebraskaB100.070.0660.0049.440.01-0.00
PittsburghACC0.070.0660.0052.040.010.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.0621.0533.18-0.04-0.02
SamfordSC0.070.0636.3636.12-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0631.5844.68-0.03-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.070.0690.0088.060.060.05
Arizona St.P120.070.0652.3853.710.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.080.0450.0051.030.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.080.0450.0046.850.00-0.00
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0460.0060.180.020.01
JacksonvilleASun0.080.0420.0020.72-0.05-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.080.0431.5830.52-0.03-0.01
PurdueB100.080.0461.9058.660.020.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0438.8938.68-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.080.0416.6722.55-0.05-0.02
ValparaisoHorz0.080.0480.0079.210.050.02
ClemsonACC0.090.0360.0052.360.020.00
CreightonBE0.070.0345.4540.61-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.090.0321.0525.57-0.05-0.02
Michigan St.B100.070.0366.6764.940.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.070.0372.2268.800.030.01
RiderMAAC0.070.0363.6464.820.020.01
Seton HallBE0.090.0370.0063.270.030.01
TennesseeSEC0.070.0363.1654.170.020.00
Weber St.BSky0.090.0338.8943.58-0.02-0.00
ArmyPat0.070.0368.4263.900.030.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0350.0053.360.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0331.5833.05-0.03-0.01
LibertyBSth0.070.0311.1116.23-0.06-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.070.0352.3856.160.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0328.5732.25-0.03-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.070.0361.1156.080.020.00
TempleAmer0.070.0366.6763.860.020.01
Texas TechB120.080.0352.3840.090.00-0.01
VillanovaBE0.070.0390.0084.570.060.02
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0373.6866.440.030.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0365.0061.640.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.070.0342.1139.27-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0322.2240.59-0.04-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0345.0057.10-0.010.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0316.6721.98-0.05-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.070.0336.8441.51-0.02-0.01
DetroitHorz0.070.0342.8642.94-0.01-0.00
FairfieldMAAC0.070.0330.0029.63-0.03-0.01
Florida St.ACC0.070.0352.3845.720.00-0.00
HarvardIvy0.070.0364.2965.390.020.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.070.0323.8125.57-0.04-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3747.13-0.00-0.00
MassachusettsA100.070.0355.0055.190.010.00
NavyPat0.070.0335.0035.76-0.02-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.070.0343.7542.86-0.01-0.00
RichmondA100.070.0355.0056.930.010.00
WisconsinB100.070.0390.0087.270.060.02