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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Cal Poly

Conference:BW
Expected RPI:297.0
Current RPI:297
Expected SOS:289
Current SOS:289
Current Record:9-20
Expected Record:9-20
Current Conf Record:6-11
Expected Conf Record:6-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-11
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:171



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-20297.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Cal Poly.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Pepperdine (245.0)WCCA77-68L0%0.0
11-13Arizona St. (125.0)P12A96-74L0%0.0
11-23Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA64-68W100%0.0
11-25Illinois Chicago (249.0)HorzN84-71L0%0.0
11-26Elon (161.0)CAAN66-72L0%0.0
12-1UTSA (264.0)CUSAH59-47W100%0.0
12-3Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH82-70W100%0.0
12-10Fresno St. (76.0)MWCA73-59L0%0.0
12-17California (53.0)P12A81-55L0%0.0
12-20Washington (211.0)P12A77-61L0%0.0
12-28Grand Canyon (131.0)WACA71-64L0%0.0
12-31Princeton (47.0)IvyA81-52L0%0.0
1-7UC Davis (166.0)BWA68-64L0%0.0
1-12Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWH74-87L0%0.0
1-14UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWA58-53L0%0.0
1-18UC Irvine (135.0)BWH48-70L0%0.0
1-21Long Beach St. (214.0)BWH92-98L0%0.0
1-26UC Irvine (135.0)BWA66-79W100%0.0
1-28Cal St. Fullerton (269.0)BWA81-71L0%0.0
2-2UC Davis (166.0)BWH74-70W100%0.0
2-4UC Riverside (330.0)BWH56-67L0%0.0
2-9Hawaii (300.0)BWA74-65L0%0.0
2-15Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWA71-85W100%0.0
2-18Hawaii (300.0)BWH61-82L0%0.0
2-23Long Beach St. (214.0)BWA71-78W100%0.0
2-25UC Riverside (330.0)BWA77-84W100%0.0
3-2Cal St. Northridge (312.0)BWH76-70W100%0.0
3-4UC Santa Barbara (324.0)BWH44-57L0%0.0
3-9UC Davis (166.0)BWN66-55L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Cal Poly's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Cal Poly's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Cal Poly.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Cal PolyBW26.4126.4134.3134.31-8.29-8.29
UC DavisBW6.146.1462.0762.071.481.48
UC IrvineBW4.564.5658.0658.060.740.74
Long Beach St.BW4.504.5040.0040.00-0.90-0.90
Cal St. FullertonBW4.494.4948.1548.15-0.17-0.17
Cal St. NorthridgeBW4.404.4038.4638.46-1.02-1.02
HawaiiBW4.404.4040.7440.74-0.82-0.82
UC RiversideBW4.394.3920.0020.00-2.64-2.64
UC Santa BarbaraBW4.314.3112.0012.00-3.28-3.28
CaliforniaP121.971.9762.5062.500.490.49
WashingtonP121.921.9226.6726.67-0.89-0.89
Northern IllinoisMAC1.841.8442.8642.86-0.26-0.26
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.841.8440.0040.00-0.37-0.37
Arizona St.P121.831.8343.7543.75-0.23-0.23
Grand CanyonWAC1.821.8267.8667.860.650.65
UTSACUSA1.811.8140.0040.00-0.36-0.36
PrincetonIvy1.811.8177.7877.781.011.01
ElonCAA1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
PepperdineWCC1.781.7824.1424.14-0.92-0.92
Fresno St.MWC1.751.7558.6258.620.300.30
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.751.7562.9662.960.450.45
UCLAP120.380.3887.8887.880.290.29
UtahP120.280.2862.0762.070.070.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.260.2642.8642.86-0.04-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.250.2550.0050.000.000.00
USCP120.250.2572.7372.730.120.12
Oregon St.P120.240.2412.9012.90-0.18-0.18
PortlandWCC0.240.2429.0329.03-0.10-0.10
ArizonaP120.240.2488.2488.240.190.19
SeattleWAC0.230.2337.0437.04-0.06-0.06
NevadaMWC0.230.2382.3582.350.150.15
PacificWCC0.230.2331.2531.25-0.08-0.08
StanfordP120.220.2243.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.220.2267.8667.860.080.08
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1983.3383.330.130.13
OregonP120.190.1984.8584.850.130.13
Nebraska OmahaSum0.180.1854.8454.840.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.180.1840.0040.00-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.180.1834.3834.38-0.06-0.06
San FranciscoWCC0.150.1561.2961.290.030.03
New MexicoMWC0.150.1554.8454.840.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.140.1487.5087.500.110.11
San Diego St.MWC0.140.1456.2556.250.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
OaklandHorz0.140.1473.3373.330.060.06
MilwaukeeHorz0.140.1429.4129.41-0.06-0.06
ColoradoP120.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Washington St.P120.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
South Dakota St.Sum0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
YaleIvy0.120.1260.7160.710.030.03
Boise St.MWC0.120.1262.0762.070.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
LamarSlnd0.120.1251.7251.720.000.00
Texas St.SB0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.110.1117.2417.24-0.07-0.07
North CarolinaACC0.110.1178.7978.790.070.07
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
IdahoBSky0.110.1155.1755.170.010.01
DrakeMVC0.110.1120.6920.69-0.06-0.06
Weber St.BSky0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
PennIvy0.090.0946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0951.6151.610.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.090.0920.0020.00-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0917.8617.86-0.06-0.06
BYUWCC0.090.0966.6766.670.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.090.0910.3410.34-0.07-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
GonzagaWCC0.090.0996.9796.970.080.08
LouisvilleACC0.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
WyomingMWC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
Green BayHorz0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Louisiana TechCUSA0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Utah St.MWC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0860.7160.710.020.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
DenverSum0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
IonaMAAC0.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
SMUAmer0.060.0688.2488.240.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
BrownIvy0.060.0639.2939.29-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
DartmouthIvy0.060.0625.9325.93-0.03-0.03
HarvardIvy0.060.0661.5461.540.010.01
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.05-0.05
Incarnate WordSlnd0.060.0632.0032.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.060.0619.2319.23-0.04-0.04
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0660.7160.710.010.01
St. John'sBE0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Southern UtahBSky0.060.0612.9012.90-0.04-0.04
ToledoMAC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
TroySB0.060.0658.8258.820.010.01
UMKCWAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
DelawareCAA0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrexelCAA0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
HofstraCAA0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0687.8887.880.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
TCUB120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
ValparaisoHorz0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
BinghamtonAE0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
TexasB120.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BucknellPat0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0337.0437.04-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.02-0.02
MaristMAAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0321.8821.88-0.02-0.02
OhioMAC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Penn St.B100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Little RockSB0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0344.4444.44-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
RiceCUSA0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UABCUSA0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DavidsonA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
PurdueB100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
VirginiaACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01