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Through games of Nov 18, 2017.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:221.0
Current RPI:263
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:200
Current Record:1-2
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:1-2
Expected OOC Record:6-5
Expected OOC RPI:276
Expected OOC SOS:346



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
23-659.00.02%
22-763.00.01%
21-888.80.12%
20-9105.30.56%
19-10121.21.16%
18-11138.42.62%
17-12155.95.51%
16-13173.38.88%
15-14192.513.23%
14-15211.115.62%
13-16229.516.52%
12-17246.913.81%
11-18264.210.16%
10-19279.76.58%
9-20293.43.29%
8-21306.51.29%
7-22315.10.48%
6-23330.10.11%
5-24331.00.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Air Force (209.8)MWCA65-57L0%0.0
11-15UTSA (247.6)CUSAH78-79L0%0.0
11-18UT Rio Grande Valley (269.0)WACH75-58W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (338.7)SWACN0-089%14.6
11-24Canisius (227.2)MAACN0-052%0.7
11-25Pacific (229.0)WCCA0-043%-2.2
11-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (253.4)SlndH0-069%6.1
12-2Houston Baptist (247.3)SlndA0-056%1.9
12-9Abilene Christian (295.7)SlndA0-063%3.9
12-17Colorado St. (161.3)MWCA0-030%-6.1
12-22Rice (260.0)CUSAA0-052%0.6
12-29Appalachian St. (278.0)SBA0-055%1.5
12-31Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBA0-037%-4.1
1-4South Alabama (232.0)SBH0-063%3.8
1-6Troy (191.8)SBH0-056%1.7
1-11Arkansas St. (221.5)SBA0-043%-2.2
1-13Little Rock (252.9)SBA0-050%-0.1
1-18Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBH0-061%3.2
1-20Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBH0-046%-1.3
1-25Georgia Southern (105.3)SBA0-024%-8.3
1-27Georgia St. (96.0)SBA0-021%-9.5
2-1Coastal Carolina (191.4)SBH0-056%1.9
2-3Appalachian St. (278.0)SBH0-074%7.5
2-10UT Arlington (69.5)SBA0-017%-11.6
2-15Louisiana Lafayette (143.8)SBA0-027%-7.3
2-17Louisiana Monroe (194.1)SBA0-041%-2.8
2-22Georgia St. (96.0)SBH0-038%-3.5
2-24Georgia Southern (105.3)SBH0-042%-2.3
3-2UT Arlington (69.5)SBH0-032%-5.6


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB34.0326.3323.0848.04-18.32-1.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.39100.0071.260.001.87
Georgia St.SB0.004.2250.0064.760.001.25
Coastal CarolinaSB2.784.2233.3347.20-0.93-0.24
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.004.1950.0058.830.000.74
Appalachian St.SB0.004.190.0028.190.00-1.83
Georgia SouthernSB0.004.19100.0064.290.001.20
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.1933.3346.680.00-0.28
Arkansas St.SB0.002.7033.3341.460.00-0.46
TroySB0.002.6933.3346.480.00-0.19
Little RockSB0.002.670.0036.580.00-0.72
South AlabamaSB0.002.6633.3346.090.00-0.21
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.081.940.0046.64-2.08-0.13
RiceCUSA0.001.9433.3335.980.00-0.54
UTSACUSA16.671.920.0035.98-16.67-0.54
Air ForceMWC16.671.90100.0042.7016.67-0.28
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.001.890.0036.810.00-0.50
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC16.671.8866.6736.605.56-0.50
Houston BaptistSlnd0.001.860.0038.770.00-0.42
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.001.840.0024.320.00-0.95
CanisiusMAAC4.171.8133.3346.28-1.39-0.13
PacificWCC0.001.810.0032.710.00-0.63
Colorado St.MWC0.001.7966.6741.230.00-0.31
LamarSlnd0.000.29100.0065.580.000.09
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.260.0044.130.00-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.230.0042.810.00-0.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.23100.0069.350.000.09
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.230.0047.180.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.220.0022.920.00-0.12
Nicholls St.Slnd2.080.2250.0043.710.00-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.000.2150.0036.640.00-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.200.0029.630.00-0.08
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.190.0023.170.00-0.10
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.190.0035.610.00-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.190.0042.670.00-0.03
MississippiSEC0.000.16100.0053.790.000.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.16100.0063.590.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.160.0048.070.00-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.000.160.0034.600.00-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.150.0032.770.00-0.05
New MexicoMWC0.000.1550.0050.570.000.00
UNLVMWC0.000.15100.0064.720.000.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.1550.0060.060.000.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.130.0025.140.00-0.06
Wake ForestACC0.000.1325.0035.000.00-0.04
BradleyMVC2.780.1375.0048.771.39-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.000.130.0051.690.000.00
FIUCUSA0.000.120.0024.970.00-0.06
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.120.0032.130.00-0.04
SMUAmer0.000.12100.0076.260.000.06
TulaneAmer0.000.12100.0054.140.000.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.120.0021.380.00-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.120.0044.500.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.12100.0066.490.000.04
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1250.0062.630.000.03
San Jose St.MWC0.000.120.0021.010.00-0.07
NevadaMWC0.000.12100.0078.910.000.07
WyomingMWC0.000.12100.0057.360.000.02
BYUWCC0.000.1266.6767.320.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1250.0034.730.00-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.120.0022.610.00-0.06
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0933.3357.840.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.09100.0062.630.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0966.6763.230.000.02
UABCUSA0.000.09100.0078.750.000.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0950.0060.430.000.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0966.6728.760.00-0.04
Utah St.MWC0.000.0950.0050.190.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.09100.0075.130.000.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0950.0069.320.000.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0933.3348.640.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.000.09100.0052.950.000.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.080.0042.340.00-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.0750.0068.280.000.02
TCUB120.000.07100.0061.150.000.01
ClemsonACC0.000.06100.0054.960.000.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6768.790.000.02
George MasonA100.000.0675.0048.930.00-0.00
IowaB100.000.06100.0058.250.000.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.060.0031.380.00-0.02
LipscombASun0.000.0633.3349.220.00-0.00
South CarolinaSEC0.000.0675.0058.930.000.01
VermontAE0.000.0666.6774.120.000.03
WoffordSC0.000.060.0039.740.00-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.000.060.0045.640.00-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.000.0666.6749.100.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0666.6768.320.000.02
Old DominionCUSA0.000.0675.0072.950.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.060.0045.040.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.06100.0059.540.000.01
AkronMAC0.000.06100.0060.370.000.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0038.990.00-0.01
DavidsonA100.000.06100.0070.080.000.02
DaytonA100.000.0666.6762.150.000.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0633.3351.560.000.00
Iowa St.B120.000.0650.0038.730.00-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.060.0031.810.00-0.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0633.3360.630.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0042.160.00-0.01
MontanaBSky0.000.0650.0060.130.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.06100.0059.870.000.01
VCUA100.000.0666.6766.590.000.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0633.3353.190.000.00
ColoradoP120.000.06100.0052.860.000.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.0633.3331.840.00-0.02
AlabamaSEC0.000.06100.0061.320.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0633.3338.050.00-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.007.670.00-0.05
CreightonBE0.000.06100.0067.460.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0666.6773.200.000.03
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0666.6763.220.000.02
SeattleWAC0.000.0633.3350.150.000.00
UMKCWAC0.000.060.0026.150.00-0.03
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0071.180.000.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0051.900.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.060.0036.070.00-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.000.06100.0086.180.000.04
PepperdineWCC0.000.060.0031.910.00-0.02
PortlandWCC0.000.060.0029.710.00-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.06100.0088.360.000.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0666.6756.400.000.01
UC DavisBW0.000.0666.6757.400.000.01
HawaiiBW0.000.06100.0053.460.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.000.0666.6746.830.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0625.0050.070.000.00
IonaMAAC0.000.0625.0059.770.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0023.830.00-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0666.6759.740.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0051.840.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0625.0032.490.00-0.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0666.6755.210.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.060.0037.060.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.050.0026.180.00-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.050.0037.120.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.050.0018.970.00-0.03
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.050.0033.850.00-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0044.630.00-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.050.0050.360.000.00
BaylorB120.000.03100.0061.110.000.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.03100.0053.240.000.00
BelmontOVC0.000.0375.0071.560.000.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0366.6748.040.00-0.00
CampbellBSth0.000.030.0051.410.000.00
Michigan St.B100.000.0350.0077.820.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.0366.6740.070.00-0.01
OklahomaB120.000.03100.0060.070.000.01
ProvidenceBE0.000.0375.0064.570.000.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0350.0048.690.00-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.030.0039.010.00-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.000.0366.6749.990.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.000.0375.0061.940.000.01
ArmyPat0.000.0350.0053.620.000.00
DenverSum0.000.030.0038.100.00-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.0333.3341.010.00-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0350.0052.380.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0333.3343.810.00-0.00
La SalleA100.000.0375.0051.210.000.00
MaineAE0.000.030.0013.450.00-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0333.3329.980.00-0.01
StetsonASun0.000.0333.3333.620.00-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.000.030.0029.880.00-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC2.080.030.0035.45-2.08-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0333.3333.580.00-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.030.0021.590.00-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0053.280.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.030.0057.520.000.00
HowardMEAC0.000.030.0046.080.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.0350.0048.410.00-0.00
IndianaB100.000.0333.3341.220.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.0375.0071.830.000.01
MemphisAmer0.000.0350.0050.670.000.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.03100.0051.080.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.000.030.0035.760.00-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0042.850.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.030.0023.260.00-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.000.03100.0071.010.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0333.3353.300.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.000.03100.0082.290.000.02
Arizona St.P120.000.03100.0062.760.000.01
Florida St.ACC0.000.03100.0068.200.000.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0350.0051.070.000.00
OregonP120.000.03100.0076.200.000.02
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.030.0033.930.00-0.01
StanfordP120.000.0375.0049.860.00-0.00
WinthropBSth0.000.030.0055.380.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.03100.0072.510.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.03100.0061.010.000.01
DartmouthIvy0.000.030.0033.700.00-0.01
ElonCAA0.000.0333.3350.840.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0366.6754.900.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.03100.0055.280.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.000.0350.0054.450.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.030.0046.410.00-0.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.030.0027.250.00-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.000.03100.0082.350.000.02
Oregon St.P120.000.0366.6742.260.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.000.0366.6766.020.000.01