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Through games of Jan 20, 2018.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:217.2
Current RPI:249
Expected SOS:282
Current SOS:348
Current Record:11-8
Expected Record:15-14
Current Conf Record:6-2
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-6
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:285
Expected OOC SOS:347



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-9122.50.04%
19-10142.80.31%
18-11161.01.66%
17-12178.76.55%
16-13195.716.51%
15-14211.625.81%
14-15226.326.46%
13-16240.516.34%
12-17254.65.61%
11-18267.40.70%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-12Air Force (250.5)MWCA65-57L0%0.0
11-15UTSA (249.2)CUSAH78-79L0%0.0
11-18UT Rio Grande Valley (227.6)WACH75-58W100%0.0
11-22Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.8)SWACN71-54W100%0.0
11-24Canisius (141.9)MAACN68-62L0%0.0
11-25Pacific (176.2)WCCA78-85W100%0.0
11-29Texas A&M Corpus Chris (335.4)SlndH66-53W100%0.0
12-2Houston Baptist (333.6)SlndA71-52L0%0.0
12-9Abilene Christian (228.2)SlndA72-68L0%0.0
12-17Colorado St. (176.5)MWCA66-58L0%0.0
12-22Rice (321.3)CUSAA66-74W100%0.0
12-29Appalachian St. (266.2)SBA66-62L0%0.0
12-31Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBA48-53W100%0.0
1-4South Alabama (234.0)SBH72-69W100%0.0
1-6Troy (207.6)SBH57-56W100%0.0
1-11Arkansas St. (290.5)SBA67-73W100%0.0
1-13Little Rock (293.4)SBA70-72W100%0.0
1-18Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBH55-52W100%0.0
1-20Louisiana Lafayette (62.4)SBH55-80L0%0.0
1-25Georgia Southern (118.9)SBA0-021%-8.8
1-27Georgia St. (135.6)SBA0-020%-9.6
2-1Coastal Carolina (244.7)SBH0-056%1.8
2-3Appalachian St. (266.2)SBH0-067%5.0
2-10UT Arlington (120.5)SBA0-015%-11.4
2-15Louisiana Lafayette (62.4)SBA0-010%-14.0
2-17Louisiana Monroe (292.1)SBA0-053%0.7
2-22Georgia St. (135.6)SBH0-039%-3.1
2-24Georgia Southern (118.9)SBH0-041%-2.4
3-2UT Arlington (120.5)SBH0-033%-5.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB26.4226.3061.8052.466.231.29
UT ArlingtonSB0.744.3660.0061.030.150.96
Coastal CarolinaSB3.024.2029.4139.38-1.24-0.89
Georgia St.SB0.524.2066.6765.140.171.27
Louisiana LafayetteSB3.014.1882.3580.351.952.54
Georgia SouthernSB0.444.1766.6765.130.151.26
Louisiana MonroeSB3.004.1628.5729.49-1.28-1.71
Appalachian St.SB2.874.1429.4134.98-1.18-1.24
Arkansas St.SB2.942.6729.4132.23-1.21-0.95
South AlabamaSB2.862.6452.9447.540.17-0.13
Little RockSB2.872.6423.5326.16-1.52-1.26
TroySB2.842.6037.5044.34-0.71-0.29
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd2.841.948.3324.25-2.37-1.00
RiceCUSA2.771.9311.7618.32-2.12-1.22
UTSACUSA2.961.9137.5037.42-0.74-0.48
Air ForceMWC2.971.9033.3329.13-0.99-0.79
Abilene ChristianSlnd2.861.8950.0050.800.000.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.911.8847.3746.63-0.15-0.13
Houston BaptistSlnd2.791.860.0016.38-2.79-1.25
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC2.921.8431.5837.66-1.08-0.45
CanisiusMAAC2.851.8157.8959.020.450.33
PacificWCC2.851.8147.3745.99-0.15-0.15
Colorado St.MWC2.711.7942.1139.31-0.43-0.38
LamarSlnd0.320.2950.0054.850.000.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.320.2552.9455.040.020.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.240.2380.0078.860.140.13
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.330.2243.7549.10-0.04-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.410.227.1414.82-0.35-0.16
New OrleansSlnd0.400.2237.5045.22-0.10-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.320.2250.0051.480.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.220.2144.4446.64-0.02-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.197.6920.090.00-0.12
Central ArkansasSlnd0.320.1945.0049.27-0.03-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.230.1928.5731.27-0.10-0.07
MississippiSEC0.250.1852.6345.860.01-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.220.1833.3334.11-0.07-0.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.1829.4133.22-0.03-0.06
WyomingMWC0.200.1861.1156.830.050.02
HamptonMEAC0.210.1520.0041.76-0.13-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.300.1541.1838.46-0.05-0.04
New MexicoMWC0.160.1545.0048.56-0.02-0.00
UNLVMWC0.290.1573.6865.280.140.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.220.1552.6355.290.010.02
Grambling St.SWAC0.150.1536.8444.12-0.04-0.02
SMUAmer0.220.1270.0070.630.090.05
Boise St.MWC0.070.1278.9576.970.040.07
San Diego St.MWC0.070.1258.8262.830.010.03
San Jose St.MWC0.150.1211.7612.81-0.11-0.09
Wake ForestACC0.070.1244.4441.15-0.01-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.1238.8943.43-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.150.1265.0057.870.050.02
FIUCUSA0.150.1235.2935.57-0.04-0.03
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.150.1237.5037.68-0.04-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.1238.8935.35-0.02-0.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.1227.7834.50-0.03-0.04
UMKCWAC0.070.1221.0524.71-0.04-0.06
NevadaMWC0.150.1285.7182.070.110.08
TulaneAmer0.140.1263.1657.900.040.02
IonaMAAC0.140.1263.1666.880.040.04
Fresno St.MWC0.210.1266.6763.420.070.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.220.1244.4448.91-0.02-0.00
BYUWCC0.070.1180.9576.230.040.06
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.1127.7829.11-0.03-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.1110.5316.75-0.05-0.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.070.1121.0539.47-0.04-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.000.1157.1453.220.000.01
Utah St.MWC0.070.0945.0045.50-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.150.0925.0028.25-0.08-0.04
Texas TechB120.220.0978.9571.810.130.04
UABCUSA0.080.0961.1164.130.020.03
South FloridaAmer0.150.0935.0026.14-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0977.7879.160.040.05
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.0966.6766.010.050.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.0970.0071.230.060.04
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0970.0068.420.030.03
New Mexico St.WAC0.070.0983.3384.230.040.06
San DiegoWCC0.140.0963.1657.540.040.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0833.3332.96-0.02-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0770.0068.220.040.02
TCUB120.090.0773.6865.590.040.02
LipscombASun0.150.0652.9459.360.010.01
AkronMAC0.070.0647.0644.91-0.00-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0666.6765.620.020.02
DavidsonA100.070.0658.8261.440.010.01
Iowa St.B120.070.0661.1147.260.02-0.00
Ohio St.B100.070.0680.9576.520.050.03
South CarolinaSEC0.070.0661.1151.900.020.00
VCUA100.070.0660.0059.690.010.01
VermontAE0.070.0673.6877.120.030.03
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0652.9452.230.000.00
WoffordSC0.070.0668.7563.620.030.02
ColoradoP120.150.0660.0053.730.030.00
UC RiversideBW0.150.0617.6523.89-0.10-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0623.5325.63-0.04-0.03
MarshallCUSA0.000.0668.4263.640.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.0672.2274.700.000.03
Oklahoma St.B120.140.0668.4254.090.050.00
Old DominionCUSA0.070.0678.9576.760.040.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0668.4270.810.000.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.0668.4264.200.050.02
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0622.2228.590.00-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.000.060.003.120.00-0.06
ClemsonACC0.070.0684.2173.210.050.03
DaytonA100.000.0647.3750.950.000.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0638.8946.030.00-0.00
George MasonA100.000.0645.0041.350.00-0.01
IowaB100.070.0647.6244.03-0.00-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.0616.6724.910.00-0.03
LibertyBSth0.000.0652.9457.320.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0650.0046.780.00-0.00
MontanaBSky0.000.0670.5973.140.000.03
RichmondA100.070.0631.5834.35-0.03-0.02
SeattleWAC0.070.0657.8954.500.010.01
TowsonCAA0.000.0663.1666.000.000.02
HawaiiBW0.140.0668.7563.960.050.02
North DakotaBSky0.140.0629.4134.76-0.06-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.140.0652.6347.360.01-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.140.0657.1460.400.020.01
AlabamaSEC0.000.0668.4258.990.000.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.0623.5328.210.00-0.03
CreightonBE0.000.0675.0070.690.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0657.8966.250.000.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0680.9583.260.040.04
Northern IowaMVC0.000.0647.0652.510.000.00
PepperdineWCC0.070.0610.5318.34-0.05-0.04
PortlandWCC0.070.0627.7827.30-0.03-0.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.0690.4888.940.110.04
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0650.0048.740.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.130.0658.8262.450.020.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.0626.3231.52-0.07-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.070.0627.7840.88-0.03-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.070.0631.5830.00-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.070.0665.0065.370.020.02
SienaMAAC0.070.0630.0031.69-0.03-0.02
MaristMAAC0.000.0621.0521.990.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0516.6724.29-0.04-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.070.0512.5025.47-0.05-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.050.0010.65-0.07-0.04
SouthernSWAC0.070.0527.7840.97-0.03-0.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.0521.0544.260.00-0.01
BaylorB120.100.0361.1156.090.020.00
GeorgiaSEC0.100.0366.6755.930.030.00
ArmyPat0.080.0361.1160.530.020.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0358.8249.760.01-0.00
CampbellBSth0.080.0343.7545.34-0.01-0.00
DenverSum0.080.0333.3336.47-0.03-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0344.4446.10-0.01-0.00
USC UpstateASun0.080.0311.1117.96-0.06-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.080.0344.4445.98-0.01-0.00
BelmontOVC0.080.0371.4374.650.030.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.030.009.15-0.08-0.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0321.0525.98-0.04-0.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.080.0342.1145.97-0.01-0.00
KentuckySEC0.080.0373.6867.950.040.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0385.0083.180.050.02
NebraskaB100.080.0366.6759.780.030.01
OklahomaB120.080.0377.7867.900.040.01
ProvidenceBE0.080.0370.0060.460.030.01
TulsaAmer0.080.0355.0053.290.010.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0336.8435.55-0.02-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.080.0368.4257.780.030.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0350.0052.440.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.070.0320.0023.36-0.04-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.070.0329.4133.94-0.03-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.070.0331.5832.72-0.03-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.070.0346.6746.98-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.070.0352.6343.120.00-0.00
HowardMEAC0.070.0310.5327.31-0.06-0.01
IndianaB100.070.0357.8950.680.010.00
La SalleA100.070.0340.0042.72-0.01-0.00
MaineAE0.070.0310.5314.86-0.06-0.02
MemphisAmer0.070.0365.0058.490.020.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.070.0372.2258.940.030.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.070.0325.0028.02-0.04-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0318.7536.76-0.05-0.01
Oral RobertsSum0.070.0330.0032.53-0.03-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.070.0336.8432.79-0.02-0.01
StetsonASun0.070.0333.3336.92-0.02-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0368.4263.980.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.070.0330.0039.93-0.03-0.01
Wichita St.Amer0.070.0378.9577.360.040.02
Arizona St.P120.070.0378.9576.130.040.02
Florida St.ACC0.070.0373.6869.610.030.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0340.0043.34-0.01-0.00
OregonP120.070.0365.0063.830.020.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.070.0316.6724.46-0.04-0.01
StanfordP120.070.0355.0050.370.010.00
WinthropBSth0.070.0346.6758.78-0.000.01
AlbanyAE0.070.0370.0068.050.030.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0372.2274.900.030.01
DartmouthIvy0.070.0321.4326.21-0.04-0.01
ElonCAA0.070.0352.6351.090.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.000.0338.8944.140.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.070.0347.3748.17-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.070.0366.6768.700.020.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.070.0335.2940.48-0.02-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0321.0523.50-0.04-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0389.4785.520.050.02
Oregon St.P120.070.0357.8950.810.010.00
Weber St.BSky0.070.0356.2557.400.010.00