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Through games of Nov 24, 2014.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:199.5
Current RPI:276
Expected SOS:216
Current SOS:330
Current Record:2-1
Expected Record:13-13
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:2-1
Expected OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC RPI:140
Expected OOC SOS:188



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-668.00.04%
19-772.60.21%
18-891.00.98%
17-9111.12.52%
16-10128.65.32%
15-11148.910.11%
14-12169.914.69%
13-13190.917.81%
12-14212.517.16%
11-15232.614.22%
10-16254.09.35%
9-17275.64.73%
8-18292.01.96%
7-19305.60.67%
6-20317.20.19%
5-21324.70.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Seattle (264.9)WACA53-62W100%0.0
11-19Lamar (294.3)SlndH65-55W100%0.0
11-22UTSA (253.7)CUSAA80-67L0%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (283.3)SWACH0-076%8.3
12-13Texas (8.3)B12A0-02%-25.1
12-17Stephen F. Austin (116.4)SlndA0-018%-11.0
12-30Troy (243.4)SBA0-041%-2.9
1-3Georgia Southern (195.9)SBA0-036%-4.5
1-5Georgia St. (102.3)SBA0-019%-10.7
1-8Arkansas Little Rock (193.4)SBH0-059%2.7
1-10Louisiana Monroe (116.3)SBH0-044%-1.7
1-15South Alabama (236.8)SBH0-066%4.9
1-17Arkansas St. (246.7)SBA0-041%-2.6
1-19UT Arlington (145.7)SBA0-029%-6.8
1-22Georgia Southern (195.9)SBH0-059%2.7
1-24Appalachian St. (300.9)SBH0-082%11.1
1-31Louisiana Lafayette (245.2)SBH0-064%4.5
2-4South Alabama (236.8)SBA0-042%-2.3
2-7Arkansas Little Rock (193.4)SBA0-035%-4.5
2-12UT Arlington (145.7)SBH0-051%0.4
2-14Georgia St. (102.3)SBH0-038%-3.5
2-19Louisiana Lafayette (245.2)SBA0-041%-2.7
2-26Troy (243.4)SBH0-064%4.3
2-28Arkansas St. (246.7)SBH0-065%4.5
3-5Appalachian St. (300.9)SBA0-063%4.0
3-7Louisiana Monroe (116.3)SBA0-023%-8.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB34.0326.6076.9249.9218.32-0.04
UT ArlingtonSB0.005.1375.0056.110.000.63
Georgia St.SB0.005.1033.3362.60-0.001.29
Appalachian St.SB0.005.1050.0026.190.00-2.43
South AlabamaSB0.005.100.0038.83-0.00-1.14
Arkansas Little RockSB0.005.1066.6750.780.000.08
Arkansas St.SB0.005.090.0040.38-0.00-0.98
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.005.090.0039.29-0.00-1.09
TroySB0.005.090.0044.50-0.00-0.56
Georgia SouthernSB0.005.0850.0050.340.000.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.005.0850.0062.500.001.27
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.002.030.0065.03-0.000.61
LamarSlnd16.671.990.0035.55-16.67-0.58
TexasB120.001.99100.0078.540.001.14
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.001.960.0040.78-0.00-0.36
SeattleWAC16.671.9233.3346.40-5.56-0.14
UTSACUSA16.671.920.0034.98-16.67-0.58
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.290.0021.40-0.00-0.16
Southern MissCUSA0.000.2750.0054.250.000.02
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.250.0053.97-0.000.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.210.0024.93-0.00-0.11
Green BayHorz0.000.2050.0068.360.000.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.180.0045.64-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC4.170.18100.0031.714.17-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1850.0064.210.000.05
RiceCUSA0.000.1833.3327.72-0.00-0.08
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.170.0031.92-0.00-0.06
Iowa St.B120.000.16100.0067.390.000.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.15100.0051.650.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.150.0029.60-0.00-0.06
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.1550.0063.110.000.04
UMKCWAC0.000.1425.0046.39-0.00-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1480.0072.030.000.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.1440.0043.71-0.00-0.02
North TexasCUSA0.000.1466.6738.720.00-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1450.0050.880.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.1425.0040.65-0.00-0.03
TulsaAmer0.000.1475.0058.430.000.02
Chicago St.WAC0.000.140.0022.57-0.00-0.08
BaylorB120.000.13100.0070.100.000.05
TCUB120.000.13100.0057.580.000.02
IUPUISum0.000.1350.0034.020.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.110.0030.13-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.1150.0043.570.00-0.01
UABCUSA0.000.1133.3342.50-0.00-0.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.110.0038.56-0.00-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.000.1166.6751.200.000.00
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1075.0065.610.000.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1050.0045.420.00-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1080.0074.980.000.05
KentuckySEC0.000.10100.0087.980.000.07
Oklahoma St.B120.000.10100.0055.770.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.1066.6745.370.00-0.01
New OrleansSlnd0.000.070.0034.80-0.00-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.070.0029.61-0.00-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0720.0035.87-0.00-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.000.070.0066.25-0.000.02
FloridaSEC0.000.0766.6768.660.000.03
IllinoisB100.000.07100.0065.880.000.02
New MexicoMWC0.000.0760.0056.230.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0740.0066.65-0.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0740.0039.62-0.00-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.000.070.0034.67-0.00-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.000.0766.6751.260.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.070.0033.27-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.07100.0047.530.00-0.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.0766.6749.970.00-0.00
AuburnSEC0.000.0750.0032.620.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.070.0033.26-0.00-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0775.0056.780.000.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.000.0725.0035.54-0.00-0.02
MississippiSEC0.000.0775.0055.660.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.07100.0047.400.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0733.3324.20-0.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.0775.0062.270.000.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0750.0032.210.00-0.03
ToledoMAC0.000.0750.0065.370.000.02
UTEPCUSA0.000.07100.0070.270.000.03
MemphisAmer0.000.0750.0066.640.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.070.0043.12-0.00-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0064.44-0.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0720.0029.26-0.00-0.03
BYUWCC0.000.0766.6768.540.000.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.070.0020.03-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.0775.0066.130.000.02
Missouri St.MVC0.000.0750.0052.390.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.070.0039.51-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.070.0016.93-0.00-0.05
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0725.0052.91-0.000.00
AlabamaSEC0.000.0775.0058.190.000.01
BradleyMVC0.000.0733.3322.95-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.0766.6759.480.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.0750.0054.870.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0733.3323.97-0.00-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0051.910.000.00
HamptonMEAC0.000.0720.0044.69-0.00-0.01
HofstraCAA0.000.0775.0066.800.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.070.0038.25-0.00-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0023.63-0.00-0.03
Miami FLACC0.000.07100.0078.600.000.04
Montana St.BSky0.000.070.0021.27-0.00-0.04
NJITind0.000.0720.0027.91-0.00-0.03
OhioMAC0.000.0750.0055.630.000.01
PepperdineWCC0.000.0766.6756.000.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0766.6766.030.000.02
UC IrvineBW0.000.0733.3367.83-0.000.02
Virginia TechACC0.000.0766.6733.810.00-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.000.0725.0053.38-0.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.06100.0064.710.000.02
OaklandHorz0.000.060.0029.78-0.00-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0633.3354.64-0.000.01
KansasB120.000.0666.6758.820.000.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0675.0057.780.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0666.6758.810.000.01
West VirginiaB120.000.06100.0070.420.000.03
IndianaB102.780.0480.0057.961.670.01
SMUAmer2.780.0450.0069.360.000.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0433.3334.36-0.00-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.0475.0074.330.000.02
MinnesotaB100.000.0466.6762.260.000.01
MontanaBSky2.080.0433.3351.67-0.690.00
Nebraska OmahaSum2.080.0466.6746.410.69-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.0450.0045.970.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.000.040.0018.96-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.04100.0043.480.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.040.0055.80-0.000.00
WashingtonP122.080.04100.0056.072.080.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.000.040.0036.18-0.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.040.0039.25-0.00-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0425.0057.73-0.000.01
Northern IowaMVC0.000.04100.0071.240.000.02
Southern UtahBSky0.000.040.0019.76-0.00-0.02
Washington St.P120.000.0433.3328.67-0.00-0.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0433.3343.21-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.000.04100.0080.240.000.02
CaliforniaP120.000.0375.0068.180.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0070.270.000.01
IowaB100.000.0360.0064.030.000.01
LipscombASun0.000.030.0043.29-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0350.0043.250.00-0.00
St. Francis PANEC0.000.0333.3344.46-0.00-0.00
StanfordP120.000.0375.0069.760.000.01