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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:265.1
Current RPI:287
Expected SOS:301
Current SOS:337
Current Record:3-3
Expected Record:12-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-7
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:295
Expected OOC SOS:351



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-8108.70.07%
19-9134.70.10%
18-10156.10.44%
17-11172.61.44%
16-12193.33.59%
15-13213.87.63%
14-14233.512.70%
13-15252.317.05%
12-16270.819.10%
11-17288.015.81%
10-18302.511.31%
9-19313.46.43%
8-20324.13.05%
7-21331.51.05%
6-22335.90.19%
5-23344.30.03%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida Atlantic (280.5)CUSAN57-61W100%0.0
11-13Hawaii (273.6)BWA74-68L0%0.0
11-14SIU Edwardsville (217.7)OVCN86-58W100%0.0
11-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (163.3)SlndH69-73L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (307.7)CUSAA63-48L0%0.0
11-29McNeese St. (326.5)SlndH80-68W100%0.0
12-7UT Rio Grande Valley (318.0)WACA0-066%5.0
12-10Prairie View A&M (313.8)SWACH0-086%12.8
12-17Tulsa (188.2)AmerA0-027%-7.5
12-23Tulane (283.2)AmerA0-042%-2.3
12-31Appalachian St. (269.1)SBH0-065%4.5
1-2Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBH0-052%0.7
1-7UT Arlington (67.2)SBH0-027%-7.4
1-14South Alabama (143.9)SBA0-025%-8.2
1-16Troy (247.7)SBA0-043%-2.1
1-21Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBH0-033%-5.1
1-23Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBH0-067%5.4
1-28Coastal Carolina (222.6)SBA0-032%-5.6
1-30Appalachian St. (269.1)SBA0-044%-1.8
2-4UT Arlington (67.2)SBA0-013%-13.7
2-11Little Rock (151.3)SBH0-041%-2.9
2-13Arkansas St. (76.0)SBH0-032%-5.5
2-18Georgia Southern (189.8)SBA0-031%-6.0
2-20Georgia St. (105.9)SBA0-017%-11.3
2-25Troy (247.7)SBH0-064%4.2
2-27South Alabama (143.9)SBH0-044%-1.9
3-2Louisiana Lafayette (101.3)SBA0-017%-11.4
3-4Louisiana Monroe (264.0)SBA0-047%-0.9


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB29.5126.3250.0044.320.00-2.99
UT ArlingtonSB0.004.4462.5066.450.001.46
TroySB0.694.3542.8635.43-0.10-1.27
Louisiana LafayetteSB1.044.3571.4363.130.451.14
Coastal CarolinaSB0.004.3225.0037.42-0.00-1.09
Louisiana MonroeSB0.004.3216.6728.84-0.00-1.83
South AlabamaSB0.004.3271.4357.390.000.64
Appalachian St.SB0.004.3116.6728.53-0.00-1.85
Arkansas St.SB0.522.7575.0066.330.260.90
Little RockSB0.002.7566.6761.400.000.63
Georgia SouthernSB0.002.7242.8642.69-0.00-0.40
Georgia St.SB0.002.7250.0059.800.000.53
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd8.331.9566.6759.952.780.39
McNeese St.Slnd8.331.950.0018.31-8.33-1.23
UTSACUSA8.331.9214.2927.02-5.95-0.88
Florida AtlanticCUSA9.551.9120.0031.51-5.73-0.71
HawaiiBW9.551.9140.0048.47-1.91-0.06
TulaneAmer0.001.8812.5022.77-0.00-1.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC9.721.8857.1443.551.39-0.24
TulsaAmer0.001.8850.0036.740.00-0.50
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC2.081.8522.2220.77-1.16-1.08
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.521.8214.2931.87-0.37-0.66
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.2557.1450.080.000.00
LamarSlnd0.520.2350.0041.540.00-0.04
New OrleansSlnd0.000.2340.0041.93-0.00-0.04
FIUCUSA0.000.2214.2936.02-0.00-0.06
South FloridaAmer0.690.2257.1433.230.10-0.07
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.2025.0055.33-0.000.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.000.1987.5076.230.000.10
MemphisAmer1.040.1975.0055.500.520.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.000.1950.0071.020.000.08
Southern MissCUSA0.000.1925.0020.78-0.00-0.11
HoustonAmer0.000.1885.7178.280.000.10
MinnesotaB100.000.1887.5068.020.000.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.000.1850.0066.300.000.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.1620.0041.92-0.00-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.1612.5030.39-0.00-0.06
UABCUSA0.000.1650.0059.920.000.03
Tennessee MartinOVC0.690.1675.0054.670.350.01
SMUAmer0.000.1666.6766.860.000.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.1657.1471.940.000.07
Grambling St.SWAC0.000.1525.0031.41-0.00-0.06
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.150.0013.46-0.00-0.11
ChattanoogaSC0.000.1571.4373.040.000.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.140.0039.53-0.00-0.03
Cal PolyBW1.560.1342.8641.51-0.22-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.1375.0051.040.000.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1342.8637.34-0.00-0.03
CharlotteCUSA0.000.1371.4351.460.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.000.1312.5030.68-0.00-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.000.1320.0035.47-0.00-0.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.13100.0089.330.000.10
North TexasCUSA0.000.1333.3330.44-0.00-0.05
Jacksonville St.OVC0.000.1350.0046.410.00-0.01
SeattleWAC0.000.1316.6739.49-0.00-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.520.1366.6757.300.170.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.690.120.0023.69-0.69-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.000.1287.5082.360.000.08
East CarolinaAmer0.000.1277.7849.900.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.120.0017.13-0.00-0.08
TexasB120.000.1257.1438.680.00-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.1212.5033.65-0.00-0.04
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.1040.0054.54-0.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.1025.0043.41-0.00-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.000.1050.0058.040.000.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1042.8650.12-0.000.00
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.1012.5037.99-0.00-0.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.1057.1471.520.000.04
Old DominionCUSA0.000.1071.4368.050.000.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.520.1042.8658.58-0.070.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.000.1042.8638.63-0.00-0.02
UCFAmer0.000.0985.7176.240.000.05
AuburnSEC0.000.0985.7157.450.000.01
StetsonASun0.000.0928.5728.24-0.00-0.04
Oregon St.P120.520.0925.0022.93-0.26-0.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.0942.8633.23-0.00-0.03
TempleAmer0.000.0975.0064.920.000.03
AlabamaSEC0.000.0957.1451.790.000.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0940.0058.82-0.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0728.5733.77-0.00-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0728.5742.90-0.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.070.0038.27-0.00-0.02
UC DavisBW0.000.0750.0045.970.00-0.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0750.0054.070.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.070.0032.52-0.00-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.070.0033.85-0.00-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.000.0760.0067.760.000.02
Oklahoma St.B120.000.0771.4354.310.000.01
PurdueB101.040.0775.0075.340.520.03
DavidsonA100.000.0771.4363.170.000.02
DukeACC0.000.0788.8978.400.000.04
HamptonMEAC0.000.0714.2942.67-0.00-0.01
HartfordAE0.000.0722.2226.33-0.00-0.03
TennesseeSEC0.000.0740.0041.12-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0728.5723.12-0.00-0.04
North CarolinaACC0.690.0687.5081.960.520.04
MarshallCUSA0.000.0671.4354.860.000.01
RiceCUSA0.000.0675.0071.470.000.03
Western KentuckyCUSA0.000.0637.5035.09-0.00-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.0633.3336.74-0.00-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.0620.0022.75-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.000.0650.0061.240.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.03
UMKCWAC0.000.0662.5052.330.000.00
Oral RobertsSum0.000.060.0022.31-0.00-0.03
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.0685.7166.190.000.02
BradleyMVC0.000.0642.8627.96-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0625.0047.82-0.00-0.00
BYUWCC0.000.0662.5066.900.000.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
CornellIvy0.000.0628.5729.95-0.00-0.02
DenverSum0.000.0642.8645.01-0.00-0.01
FordhamA100.000.0650.0041.310.00-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.000.0657.1452.030.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0633.3346.38-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.000.0675.0048.500.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.000.0650.0062.380.000.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.000.0611.1148.19-0.00-0.00
SamfordSC0.000.0662.5056.520.000.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0685.7153.560.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.000.060.0024.64-0.00-0.03
UNC AshevilleBSth0.000.0657.1467.260.000.02
UNLVMWC0.000.0662.5043.800.00-0.01
USCP120.000.06100.0076.680.000.03
VCUA100.000.0675.0073.060.000.03
Wake ForestACC0.000.0675.0054.490.000.01
WoffordSC0.000.060.0034.81-0.00-0.02
WyomingMWC0.000.0666.6754.050.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.000.0642.8638.17-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.520.0666.6740.030.17-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.000.060.0034.27-0.00-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0614.2943.58-0.00-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.000.060.0025.23-0.00-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.000.0325.0063.27-0.000.01
Seton HallBE0.000.0371.4354.560.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0366.6766.180.000.01
HofstraCAA0.690.0362.5043.220.17-0.00
Miami FLACC0.000.0375.0066.100.000.01
Ohio St.B100.000.0387.5068.610.000.01
BelmontOVC0.000.0350.0064.350.000.01
Green BayHorz0.000.0342.8651.95-0.000.00
IndianaB100.520.0387.5074.490.390.02
IowaB100.000.0337.5037.74-0.00-0.01
IUPUISum0.520.0337.5051.64-0.130.00
MarquetteBE0.000.0375.0066.410.000.01
MassachusettsA100.000.0371.4358.600.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0316.6738.58-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
North FloridaASun0.000.0312.5034.79-0.00-0.01
PortlandWCC0.000.0350.0054.070.000.00
Portland St.BSky0.000.0340.0043.41-0.00-0.00
Saint LouisA100.000.0328.5723.78-0.00-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.520.0357.1449.130.07-0.00
St. Francis NYNEC0.000.0314.2926.74-0.00-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.000.0385.7170.060.000.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.000.0325.0027.53-0.00-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.000.0375.0086.710.000.02
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
AkronMAC0.000.0371.4368.980.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.0371.4356.250.000.00
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.000.030.0022.58-0.00-0.02
IdahoBSky0.000.0350.0052.760.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.520.0342.8645.44-0.07-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0342.8647.76-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0312.5023.75-0.00-0.02
RadfordBSth0.000.0328.5734.28-0.00-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.000.030.0018.64-0.00-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Texas TechB120.000.0387.5062.040.000.01
WinthropBSth0.000.0350.0071.070.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0362.5040.460.00-0.01
ArmyPat0.000.0342.8650.09-0.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.0328.5731.44-0.00-0.01
George MasonA100.000.0362.5046.900.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.000.0355.5647.890.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.000.0357.1436.010.00-0.01
Kansas St.B120.000.0387.5059.310.000.01
LehighPat0.000.0342.8666.67-0.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0357.1442.530.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.000.0357.1458.940.000.01
OklahomaB120.000.0371.4348.350.00-0.00
St. John'sBE0.000.0337.5037.03-0.00-0.01
TCUB120.000.03100.0061.680.000.01
UtahP120.000.0375.0059.790.000.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02