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Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:179.0
Current RPI:179
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:276
Current Record:18-13
Expected Record:18-13
Current Conf Record:13-8
Expected Conf Record:13-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:12-4
Current OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC Record:5-5
Expected OOC RPI:293
Expected OOC SOS:350



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-13179.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Florida Atlantic (281.0)CUSAN57-61W100%0.0
11-13Hawaii (300.0)BWA74-68L0%0.0
11-14SIU Edwardsville (333.0)OVCN86-58W100%0.0
11-21Texas A&M Corpus Chris (158.0)SlndH69-73L0%0.0
11-25UTSA (264.0)CUSAA63-48L0%0.0
11-29McNeese St. (315.0)SlndH80-68W100%0.0
12-7UT Rio Grande Valley (319.0)WACA72-61L0%0.0
12-10Prairie View A&M (307.0)SWACH64-57W100%0.0
12-17Tulsa (134.0)AmerA74-59L0%0.0
12-23Tulane (296.0)AmerA66-69W100%0.0
12-31Appalachian St. (301.0)SBH67-58W100%0.0
1-2Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBH53-60L0%0.0
1-7UT Arlington (45.0)SBH81-73W100%0.0
1-14South Alabama (231.0)SBA72-67L0%0.0
1-16Troy (147.0)SBA71-75W100%0.0
1-21Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBH73-79L0%0.0
1-23Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBH63-57W100%0.0
1-28Coastal Carolina (183.0)SBA50-52W100%0.0
1-30Appalachian St. (301.0)SBA55-68W100%0.0
2-4UT Arlington (45.0)SBA76-61L0%0.0
2-11Little Rock (243.0)SBH56-49W100%0.0
2-13Arkansas St. (119.0)SBH62-58W100%0.0
2-18Georgia Southern (121.0)SBA70-67L0%0.0
2-20Georgia St. (104.0)SBA67-51L0%0.0
2-25Troy (147.0)SBH63-59W100%0.0
2-27South Alabama (231.0)SBH90-64W100%0.0
3-2Louisiana Lafayette (114.0)SBA94-84L0%0.0
3-4Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBA65-70W100%0.0
3-10Louisiana Monroe (298.0)SBN63-51W100%0.0
3-11UT Arlington (45.0)SBN62-83W100%0.0
3-12Troy (147.0)SBN53-59L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB26.5026.5060.7460.745.695.69
UT ArlingtonSB5.735.7378.5778.573.273.27
TroySB5.695.6961.2961.291.291.29
Louisiana MonroeSB5.575.5725.0025.00-2.79-2.79
Coastal CarolinaSB4.104.1044.8344.83-0.42-0.42
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.074.0758.6258.620.700.70
South AlabamaSB4.034.0339.2939.29-0.86-0.86
Appalachian St.SB4.034.0326.9226.92-1.86-1.86
Georgia St.SB2.652.6558.6258.620.460.46
Arkansas St.SB2.632.6363.3363.330.700.70
Little RockSB2.602.6044.8344.83-0.27-0.27
Georgia SouthernSB2.602.6051.7251.720.090.09
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.761.7659.2659.260.330.33
McNeese St.Slnd1.751.7520.0020.00-1.05-1.05
HawaiiBW1.741.7442.8642.86-0.25-0.25
UTSACUSA1.731.7336.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
TulaneAmer1.721.7220.0020.00-1.03-1.03
TulsaAmer1.721.7245.1645.16-0.17-0.17
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC1.701.7018.5218.52-1.07-1.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.671.6721.4321.43-0.95-0.95
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.641.6436.6736.67-0.44-0.44
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.250.2544.4444.44-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.220.2260.7160.710.050.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.220.2251.7251.720.010.01
South FloridaAmer0.200.2023.3323.33-0.11-0.11
LamarSlnd0.200.2051.7251.720.010.01
FIUCUSA0.190.1917.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.190.1987.8887.880.140.14
Southern MissCUSA0.190.1924.1424.14-0.10-0.10
Grambling St.SWAC0.180.1843.3343.33-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.180.1872.7372.730.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.180.1867.6567.650.060.06
Northwestern St.Slnd0.170.1736.0036.00-0.05-0.05
MemphisAmer0.160.1659.3859.380.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.160.1676.6776.670.090.09
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
HoustonAmer0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
ChattanoogaSC0.160.1658.6258.620.030.03
TexasB120.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
UABCUSA0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.150.156.906.90-0.13-0.13
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
SeattleWAC0.130.1337.0437.04-0.03-0.03
SMUAmer0.130.1388.2488.240.100.10
North TexasCUSA0.130.1321.4321.43-0.08-0.08
Saint Mary'sWCC0.130.1387.5087.500.100.10
Jacksonville St.OVC0.130.1356.2556.250.020.02
Coppin St.MEAC0.130.1323.3323.33-0.07-0.07
CincinnatiAmer0.130.1385.2985.290.090.09
Chicago St.WAC0.130.1310.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1223.3323.33-0.07-0.07
Houston BaptistSlnd0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.110.1137.0437.04-0.03-0.03
Cal PolyBW0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
UTEPCUSA0.110.1145.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.110.1120.0020.00-0.06-0.06
East CarolinaAmer0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.090.0956.6756.670.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0936.0036.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0932.0032.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0840.6240.62-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
StetsonASun0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Western KentuckyCUSA0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
AuburnSEC0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Illinois St.MVC0.080.0881.2581.250.050.05
AlabamaSEC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
ArkansasSEC0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
BradleyMVC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
BryantNEC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
ColoradoP120.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
FordhamA100.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Oregon St.P120.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
UCFAmer0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.070.0725.0025.00-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
USCP120.070.0772.7372.730.030.03
WyomingMWC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
PurdueB100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
DukeACC0.060.0677.1477.140.030.03
HamptonMEAC0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.060.0628.1228.12-0.03-0.03
Murray St.OVC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0623.3323.33-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
UC DavisBW0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0622.2222.22-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0618.5218.52-0.04-0.04
RiceCUSA0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
DenverSum0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MississippiSEC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
SamfordSC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0534.3834.38-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.050.0521.4321.43-0.03-0.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
UNC AshevilleBSth0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
WoffordSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
BelmontOVC0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
Green BayHorz0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
IUPUISum0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Miami FLACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Saint LouisA100.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
IowaB100.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North FloridaASun0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.030.0378.5778.570.020.02
Seton HallBE0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0310.0010.00-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
IdahoBSky0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
WinthropBSth0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ArmyPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Kansas St.B120.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
LehighPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
MissouriSEC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Texas TechB120.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0387.8887.880.020.02