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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:236.0
Current RPI:236
Expected SOS:195
Current SOS:195
Current Record:11-17
Expected Record:11-17
Current Conf Record:8-14
Expected Conf Record:8-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC RPI:106
Expected OOC SOS:109



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-17236.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Seattle (280.0)WACA53-62W100%0.0
11-19Lamar (230.0)SlndH65-55W100%0.0
11-22UTSA (237.0)CUSAA80-67L0%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (262.0)SWACH81-65W100%0.0
12-13Texas (42.0)B12A59-27L0%0.0
12-17Stephen F. Austin (33.0)SlndA66-60L0%0.0
12-30Troy (313.0)SBA46-57W100%0.0
1-3Georgia Southern (113.0)SBA40-36L0%0.0
1-5Georgia St. (53.0)SBA74-77W100%0.0
1-8Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBH77-74W100%0.0
1-10Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBH59-62L0%0.0
1-15South Alabama (275.0)SBH82-71W100%0.0
1-17Arkansas St. (277.0)SBA78-73L0%0.0
1-19UT Arlington (184.0)SBA66-55L0%0.0
1-22Georgia Southern (113.0)SBH43-45L0%0.0
1-24Appalachian St. (250.0)SBH58-64L0%0.0
1-31Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBH63-72L0%0.0
2-4South Alabama (275.0)SBA43-63W100%0.0
2-7Arkansas Little Rock (276.0)SBA69-61L0%0.0
2-12UT Arlington (184.0)SBH61-70L0%0.0
2-14Georgia St. (53.0)SBH41-53L0%0.0
2-19Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBA64-42L0%0.0
2-26Troy (313.0)SBH67-61W100%0.0
2-28Arkansas St. (277.0)SBH70-60W100%0.0
3-5Appalachian St. (250.0)SBA67-64L0%0.0
3-7Louisiana Monroe (132.0)SBA56-53L0%0.0
3-12UT Arlington (184.0)SBN62-68W100%0.0
3-13Louisiana Lafayette (142.0)SBN53-43L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB26.7026.7039.8439.84-5.42-5.42
Louisiana LafayetteSB6.576.5751.8551.850.240.24
UT ArlingtonSB6.546.5448.1548.15-0.24-0.24
Georgia St.SB4.954.9573.3373.332.312.31
South AlabamaSB4.914.9134.4834.48-1.53-1.53
Louisiana MonroeSB4.914.9155.5655.560.550.55
Georgia SouthernSB4.904.9065.3865.381.511.51
Arkansas Little RockSB4.854.8539.2939.29-1.04-1.04
Arkansas St.SB4.814.8134.6234.62-1.48-1.48
Appalachian St.SB4.784.7837.0437.04-1.24-1.24
TroySB4.784.7832.0032.00-1.72-1.72
LamarSlnd1.911.9144.0044.00-0.23-0.23
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.881.8886.2186.211.361.36
TexasB121.881.8859.3859.380.350.35
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.821.8245.1645.16-0.18-0.18
SeattleWAC1.791.7950.0050.000.000.00
UTSACUSA1.791.7940.7440.74-0.33-0.33
Northwestern St.Slnd0.270.2755.5655.560.030.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.250.256.906.90-0.22-0.22
Southern MissCUSA0.240.2425.9325.93-0.12-0.12
Houston BaptistSlnd0.220.2233.3333.33-0.07-0.07
McNeese St.Slnd0.190.1940.7440.74-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.190.1972.4172.410.080.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.170.1734.3834.38-0.05-0.05
Iowa St.B120.170.1775.7675.760.090.09
Green BayHorz0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.1625.0025.00-0.08-0.08
RiceCUSA0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1575.0075.000.080.08
UMKCWAC0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1516.6716.67-0.10-0.10
BradleyMVC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
TulsaAmer0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1517.2417.24-0.10-0.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Incarnate WordSlnd0.130.1358.3358.330.020.02
FIUCUSA0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
North TexasCUSA0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.120.1222.5822.58-0.07-0.07
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1264.7164.710.030.03
KentuckySEC0.120.12100.00100.000.120.12
TCUB120.110.1154.5554.550.010.01
IUPUISum0.110.1132.2632.26-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
Texas TechB120.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Austin PeayOVC0.100.1021.4321.43-0.05-0.05
MarshallCUSA0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0967.7467.740.030.03
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.090.0952.9452.940.010.01
AuburnSEC0.090.0941.1841.18-0.02-0.02
BuffaloMAC0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
Oral RobertsSum0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
Weber St.BSky0.090.0939.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Old DominionCUSA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
MississippiSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
IllinoisB100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0621.4321.43-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
UCFAmer0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UTEPCUSA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
FloridaSEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.060.0629.0329.03-0.03-0.03
Georgia TechACC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
New MexicoMWC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
OhioMAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
SamfordSC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Virginia TechACC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
BYUWCC0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Kent St.MAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
NJITind0.060.0656.0056.000.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
RichmondA100.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0681.2581.250.030.03
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.060.000.00-0.06-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0618.7518.75-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
IndianaB100.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
SMUAmer0.030.0381.2581.250.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0325.9325.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.030.0341.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.030.000.00-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.030.0379.3179.310.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WashingtonP120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0390.9190.910.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
BrownIvy0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
IowaB100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01