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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:307.0
Current RPI:307
Expected SOS:193
Current SOS:193
Current Record:6-23
Expected Record:6-23
Current Conf Record:4-14
Expected Conf Record:4-14
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-5
Current OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC Record:2-9
Expected OOC RPI:272
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
6-23307.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-8Houston (143.0)AmerA76-70L0%0.0
11-12Stephen F. Austin (52.0)SlndH57-64L0%0.0
11-16Oral Roberts (191.0)SlndA82-65L0%0.0
11-20SMU (53.0)AmerA70-49L0%0.0
11-25South Dakota (255.0)SumH56-57L0%0.0
11-29Tulane (223.0)CUSAN52-70W100%0.0
11-30Northern Kentucky (310.0)ASunN61-70W100%0.0
12-1Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCN82-74L0%0.0
12-14Texas (36.0)B12A85-53L0%0.0
12-19Utah (80.0)P12A69-50L0%0.0
12-30LIU Brooklyn (297.0)NECH64-73L0%0.0
1-2Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBH59-63L0%0.0
1-4Arkansas St. (180.0)SBH69-74L0%0.0
1-11Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBA36-61W100%0.0
1-13Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBA81-58L0%0.0
1-18UT Arlington (199.0)SBH48-56L0%0.0
1-23Arkansas Little Rock (186.0)SBA69-64L0%0.0
1-25Troy (285.0)SBH73-65W100%0.0
2-1Western Kentucky (125.0)SBA68-64L0%0.0
2-6Louisiana Monroe (244.0)SBH65-57W100%0.0
2-8Louisiana Lafayette (90.0)SBH66-67L0%0.0
2-15UT Arlington (199.0)SBA69-62L0%0.0
2-17Georgia St. (76.0)SBA68-41L0%0.0
2-20South Alabama (280.0)SBH67-66W100%0.0
2-22Arkansas St. (180.0)SBA73-68L0%0.0
2-27Western Kentucky (125.0)SBH50-51L0%0.0
3-1Georgia St. (76.0)SBH55-66L0%0.0
3-6South Alabama (280.0)SBA63-53L0%0.0
3-8Troy (285.0)SBA72-50L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB26.3726.3719.5519.55-16.06-16.06
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.594.5962.0762.071.111.11
UT ArlingtonSB4.534.5339.2939.29-0.97-0.97
Arkansas Little RockSB4.504.5039.2939.29-0.97-0.97
Georgia St.SB4.504.5072.4172.412.022.02
Arkansas St.SB4.504.5053.5753.570.320.32
Western KentuckySB4.454.4558.6258.620.770.77
TroySB4.444.4429.6329.63-1.81-1.81
Louisiana MonroeSB4.434.4337.5037.50-1.11-1.11
South AlabamaSB4.404.4026.9226.92-2.03-2.03
TexasB121.871.8768.7568.750.700.70
HoustonAmer1.861.8650.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd1.811.8192.8692.861.551.55
SMUAmer1.801.8070.9770.970.760.76
Oral RobertsSlnd1.781.7842.8642.86-0.25-0.25
TulaneCUSA1.781.7851.6151.610.060.06
Northern KentuckyASun1.781.7831.0331.03-0.68-0.68
Southeast Missouri St.OVC1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC1.721.7228.5728.57-0.74-0.74
South DakotaSum1.721.7230.7730.77-0.66-0.66
UtahP121.721.7262.0762.070.420.42
Southern MissCUSA0.280.2880.6580.650.170.17
Northwestern St.Slnd0.270.2748.1548.15-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleAmer0.240.2485.2985.290.170.17
Central ArkansasSlnd0.240.2424.0024.00-0.12-0.12
Houston BaptistSlnd0.230.2314.8114.81-0.16-0.16
McNeese St.Slnd0.230.2325.9325.93-0.11-0.11
SamfordSC0.210.2133.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.210.2168.9768.970.080.08
LamarSlnd0.210.2110.7110.71-0.16-0.16
Kansas St.B120.200.2062.5062.500.050.05
MemphisAmer0.190.1970.9770.970.080.08
MississippiSEC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.170.1729.0329.03-0.07-0.07
OklahomaB120.170.1771.8871.880.070.07
BaylorB120.160.1666.6766.670.050.05
TempleAmer0.160.1629.0329.03-0.07-0.07
Louisiana TechCUSA0.150.1578.7978.790.090.09
WyomingMWC0.150.1553.3353.330.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
ArkansasSEC0.140.1465.6265.620.050.05
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.1420.6920.69-0.08-0.08
East Tennessee St.ASun0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.140.1432.1432.14-0.05-0.05
TulsaCUSA0.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.8617.86-0.09-0.09
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1225.9325.93-0.06-0.06
IUPUISum0.120.1210.3410.34-0.10-0.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.120.1246.1546.15-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.120.1272.7372.730.050.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.120.1253.5753.570.010.01
ColoradoP120.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.110.1159.2659.260.020.02
UTSACUSA0.110.1122.2222.22-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1181.8281.820.070.07
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1176.4776.470.060.06
RutgersAmer0.110.1134.3834.38-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DenverSum0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0930.7730.77-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.090.0957.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
ArizonaP120.090.0988.2488.240.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.090.0932.1432.14-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0923.3323.33-0.05-0.05
Wichita St.MVC0.090.09100.00100.000.090.09
SouthernSWAC0.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
MercerASun0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
East CarolinaCUSA0.080.0844.8344.83-0.01-0.01
FIUCUSA0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
VanderbiltSEC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
West VirginiaB120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
LSUSEC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
IPFWSum0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0648.1548.15-0.00-0.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0678.5778.570.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
GonzagaWCC0.060.0681.8281.820.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Wright St.Horz0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
BryantNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.060.0636.3636.36-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.060.0667.8667.860.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Austin PeayOVC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.060.0610.7110.71-0.05-0.05
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.060.0663.3363.330.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
FloridaSEC0.060.0694.1294.120.050.05
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0614.8114.81-0.04-0.04
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
LipscombASun0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0621.2121.21-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.060.0622.5822.58-0.03-0.03
ToledoMAC0.060.0681.2581.250.040.04
UCLAP120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
USCP120.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
USC UpstateASun0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
Washington St.P120.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
NJITind0.060.0636.0036.00-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
AlabamaSEC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.060.0660.0060.000.010.01
ElonSC0.060.0655.1755.170.010.01
OaklandHorz0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0640.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
StanfordP120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
HofstraCAA0.050.0530.3030.30-0.02-0.02
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0563.6463.640.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
Green BayHorz0.030.0377.7877.780.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0362.0762.070.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AkronMAC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0344.8344.83-0.00-0.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
IndianaB100.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Seton HallBE0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.030.0346.1546.15-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
PurdueB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0313.7913.79-0.02-0.02
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
UC DavisBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
ColgatePat0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
DePaulBE0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02