live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Simulation Results - - Blog


Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:238.0
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:276
Current SOS:276
Current Record:13-16
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:9-13
Expected Conf Record:9-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-5
Current OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC Record:4-3
Expected OOC RPI:234
Expected OOC SOS:351



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
13-16238.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-21UTEP (215.0)CUSAA77-62L0%0.0
11-28McNeese St. (341.0)SlndA67-70W100%0.0
12-2UTSA (347.0)CUSAH76-53W100%0.0
12-5Texas A&M Corpus Chris (84.0)SlndA47-39L0%0.0
12-13UT Rio Grande Valley (338.0)WACH68-59W100%0.0
12-16Prairie View A&M (334.0)SWACA44-62W100%0.0
12-18Washington St. (212.0)P12A78-73L0%0.0
12-30Georgia Southern (243.0)SBH80-66W100%0.0
1-2Georgia St. (180.0)SBH46-58L0%0.0
1-9Appalachian St. (259.0)SBA76-56L0%0.0
1-14South Alabama (240.0)SBA67-78W100%0.0
1-16Troy (293.0)SBA66-57L0%0.0
1-21Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBH74-77L0%0.0
1-23Arkansas St. (285.0)SBH78-68W100%0.0
1-28Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBA80-54L0%0.0
1-30Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBA72-59L0%0.0
2-4Georgia St. (180.0)SBA59-56L0%0.0
2-6Georgia Southern (243.0)SBA66-62L0%0.0
2-9UT Arlington (105.0)SBH53-65L0%0.0
2-11Appalachian St. (259.0)SBH69-68W100%0.0
2-18Louisiana Monroe (95.0)SBH57-76L0%0.0
2-20Louisiana Lafayette (157.0)SBH61-57W100%0.0
2-25Arkansas St. (285.0)SBA60-71W100%0.0
2-27Arkansas Little Rock (42.0)SBA73-68L0%0.0
3-1UT Arlington (105.0)SBA75-69L0%0.0
3-3Troy (293.0)SBH78-57W100%0.0
3-5South Alabama (240.0)SBH68-57W100%0.0
3-10Georgia St. (180.0)SBN61-63W100%0.0
3-11UT Arlington (105.0)SBN72-63L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB26.6526.6546.3446.34-1.95-1.95
UT ArlingtonSB6.366.3665.5265.521.971.97
Georgia St.SB6.256.2548.0048.00-0.25-0.25
Louisiana LafayetteSB4.744.7451.8551.850.180.18
Louisiana MonroeSB4.744.7455.1755.170.490.49
South AlabamaSB4.724.7241.3841.38-0.81-0.81
Arkansas Little RockSB4.724.7286.2186.213.423.42
Georgia SouthernSB4.654.6540.7440.74-0.86-0.86
Appalachian St.SB4.604.6027.5927.59-2.06-2.06
Arkansas St.SB4.604.6033.3333.33-1.53-1.53
TroySB4.604.6022.2222.22-2.55-2.55
UTEPCUSA1.921.9254.8454.840.190.19
McNeese St.Slnd1.811.8128.0028.00-0.80-0.80
UTSACUSA1.811.8113.7913.79-1.31-1.31
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd1.791.7975.8675.860.920.92
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.751.7519.2319.23-1.08-1.08
Washington St.P121.751.7524.1424.14-0.91-0.91
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.721.7223.3323.33-0.92-0.92
Southern MissCUSA0.320.3225.9325.93-0.15-0.15
Central ArkansasSlnd0.290.2925.0025.00-0.15-0.15
Louisiana TechCUSA0.280.2870.0070.000.110.11
MississippiSEC0.210.2162.5062.500.050.05
UABCUSA0.210.2180.6580.650.130.13
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2070.9770.970.090.09
North TexasCUSA0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
TexasB120.190.1962.5062.500.050.05
RiceCUSA0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
New OrleansSlnd0.180.1825.9325.93-0.09-0.09
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.170.1782.1482.140.110.11
Northwestern St.Slnd0.150.1520.8320.83-0.09-0.09
UCLAP120.150.1546.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.150.1562.8662.860.040.04
IUPUISum0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
IdahoBSky0.140.1461.2961.290.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.140.1453.1253.120.010.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.140.1422.5822.58-0.08-0.08
FIUCUSA0.140.1436.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.140.1414.2914.29-0.10-0.10
Nicholls St.Slnd0.130.1325.8125.81-0.06-0.06
LamarSlnd0.130.1326.9226.92-0.06-0.06
Savannah St.MEAC0.120.1248.2848.28-0.00-0.00
New Mexico St.WAC0.120.1267.7467.740.040.04
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
SamfordSC0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1142.4242.42-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
SeattleWAC0.100.1042.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.100.1032.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Wright St.Horz0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Miami FLACC0.090.0978.1278.120.050.05
North Dakota St.Sum0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.090.0933.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.090.0944.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.090.0956.0056.000.010.01
LSUSEC0.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.090.0981.8281.820.060.06
BaylorB120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
ColoradoP120.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
FurmanSC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0810.7110.71-0.07-0.07
TulaneAmer0.080.0835.2935.29-0.02-0.02
MarshallCUSA0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.080.0812.9012.90-0.06-0.06
FordhamA100.080.0855.1755.170.010.01
MemphisAmer0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Ohio St.B100.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0672.4172.410.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.453.45-0.06-0.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0679.3179.310.040.04
UMKCWAC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Portland St.BSky0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
Seton HallBE0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0621.4321.43-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
StetsonASun0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
The CitadelSC0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
WinthropBSth0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
ArizonaP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
Arizona St.P120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
USCP120.060.0663.6463.640.020.02
UtahP120.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
WashingtonP120.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
WisconsinB100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.0635.7135.71-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0624.2424.24-0.03-0.03
BelmontOVC0.060.0663.3363.330.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
DenverSum0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
DePaulBE0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
East CarolinaAmer0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
LibertyBSth0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
MercerSC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
MinnesotaB100.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0622.8622.86-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.060.0682.3582.350.040.04
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Texas TechB120.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
West VirginiaB120.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
North FloridaASun0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.030.0311.1111.11-0.02-0.02
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CreightonBE0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
ElonCAA0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
Oregon St.P120.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0314.2914.29-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
BryantNEC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.030.0347.0647.06-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
TCUB120.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
UNLVMWC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
VCUA100.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01