Texas St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	272.0
Current RPI:	272
Expected SOS:	224
Current SOS:	224
Current Record:	11-22
Expected Record:	11-22
Current Conf Record:	7-14
Expected Conf Record:	7-14
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-5
Current OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC Record:	4-8
Expected OOC RPI:	328
Expected OOC SOS:	343

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-22	272.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Fordham (228.0)	A10	H	86-76	W	100%
11-17	Southern Methodist (219.0)	CUSA	H	75-78	L	0%
11-22	Charlotte (68.0)	A10	N	64-73	L	0%
11-23	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	N	63-78	L	0%
11-24	UC Riverside (338.0)	BW	N	81-69	W	100%
11-30	Utah (161.0)	P12	H	69-74	L	0%
12-5	Oral Roberts (151.0)	Slnd	H	77-86	L	0%
12-8	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	73-58	W	100%
12-15	Texas (116.0)	B12	A	75-63	L	0%
12-17	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	74-68	L	0%
12-20	Central Michigan (268.0)	MAC	A	92-80	L	0%
12-29	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	H	55-72	L	0%
12-31	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	H	57-81	L	0%
1-3	Denver (64.0)	WAC	A	64-53	L	0%
1-5	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	A	78-67	L	0%
1-10	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	H	67-84	L	0%
1-12	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	H	74-91	L	0%
1-19	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	A	78-81	W	100%
1-24	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	A	73-78	W	100%
1-26	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	A	83-86	W	100%
1-31	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	H	72-86	L	0%
2-2	Denver (64.0)	WAC	H	64-79	L	0%
2-7	Texas Arlington (119.0)	WAC	A	75-50	L	0%
2-9	Louisiana Tech (53.0)	WAC	A	84-69	L	0%
2-16	Texas San Antonio (260.0)	WAC	H	62-73	L	0%
2-23	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	61-74	W	100%
2-28	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	H	67-65	W	100%
3-2	Idaho (195.0)	WAC	H	81-90	L	0%
3-7	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	77-61	L	0%
3-9	San Jose St. (261.0)	WAC	A	67-90	W	100%
3-12	Seattle (303.0)	WAC	N	68-56	W	100%
3-14	Denver (64.0)	WAC	N	68-72	W	100%
3-15	New Mexico St. (55.0)	WAC	N	74-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas St.	WAC	26.57	26.57	33.71	33.71	-8.65	-8.65
New Mexico St.	WAC	5.55	5.55	66.67	66.67	1.85	1.85
Denver	WAC	5.44	5.44	70.37	70.37	2.22	2.22
Seattle	WAC	5.44	5.44	26.92	26.92	-2.51	-2.51
Texas Arlington	WAC	4.23	4.23	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Texas San Antonio	WAC	4.08	4.08	30.00	30.00	-1.63	-1.63
Idaho	WAC	4.04	4.04	37.04	37.04	-1.05	-1.05
Louisiana Tech	WAC	4.03	4.03	79.31	79.31	2.36	2.36
Utah St.	WAC	4.02	4.02	64.29	64.29	1.15	1.15
San Jose St.	WAC	3.97	3.97	26.92	26.92	-1.83	-1.83
Texas Pan American	GWC	1.63	1.63	44.44	44.44	-0.18	-0.18
Lamar	Slnd	1.61	1.61	10.00	10.00	-1.29	-1.29
Charlotte	A10	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Oral Roberts	Slnd	1.61	1.61	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Utah	P12	1.59	1.59	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Southern Methodist	CUSA	1.59	1.59	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.56	1.56	29.03	29.03	-0.66	-0.66
Central Michigan	MAC	1.56	1.56	31.03	31.03	-0.59	-0.59
Texas	B12	1.56	1.56	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	1.54	1.54	23.33	23.33	-0.82	-0.82
Northwestern	B10	1.52	1.52	38.71	38.71	-0.34	-0.34
UC Riverside	BW	1.52	1.52	14.81	14.81	-1.07	-1.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.29	0.29	38.46	38.46	-0.07	-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.27	0.27	17.86	17.86	-0.17	-0.17
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.26	0.26	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.22	0.22	71.88	71.88	0.10	0.10
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.22	0.22	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.21	0.21	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.19	0.19	85.29	85.29	0.13	0.13
Santa Clara	WCC	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Brigham Young	WCC	0.17	0.17	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
New Orleans	ind	0.16	0.16	18.18	18.18	-0.10	-0.10
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
California	P12	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	70.37	70.37	0.06	0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.13	0.13	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.13	0.13	13.79	13.79	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.12	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma	B12	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	GWC	0.10	0.10	35.71	35.71	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.10	0.10	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
UC Irvine	BW	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
St. Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	81.25	81.25	0.06	0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.10	0.10	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	85.19	85.19	0.07	0.07
Baylor	B12	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
St. Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	81.82	81.82	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	GWC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	55.17	55.17	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mercer	ASun	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.07	13.79	13.79	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
North Texas	SB	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	93.75	93.75	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.07	0.07	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.05	0.05	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.05	0.05	48.00	48.00	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	79.31	79.31	0.03	0.03
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	14.81	14.81	-0.03	-0.03
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Central Florida	CUSA	0.02	0.02	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Connecticut	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	NEC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.02	0.02	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	BE	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	59.26	59.26	0.00	0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	SC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	10.00	10.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01