Texas St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	287.0
Current RPI:	287
Expected SOS:	298
Current SOS:	298
Current Record:	9-17
Expected Record:	9-17
Current Conf Record:	5-11
Expected Conf Record:	5-11
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-10
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	235
Expected OOC SOS:	268

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-17	287.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-18	Toledo (246.0)	MAC	N	91-94	W	100%
11-19	Texas Pan American (314.0)	GWC	A	79-77	L	0%
11-20	South Carolina Upstate (140.0)	ASun	N	74-82	L	0%
12-3	Houston Baptist (324.0)	GWC	H	103-76	W	100%
12-6	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	H	81-78	W	100%
12-10	Texas (50.0)	B12	A	86-52	L	0%
12-20	Long Island (80.0)	NEC	A	100-84	L	0%
12-22	Fordham (240.0)	A10	A	81-70	L	0%
12-30	Houston (221.0)	CUSA	A	94-71	L	0%
1-4	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	H	65-66	L	0%
1-7	Northwestern St. (217.0)	Slnd	A	83-68	L	0%
1-14	McNeese St. (174.0)	Slnd	H	82-73	W	100%
1-18	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	A	71-68	L	0%
1-21	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	H	75-80	L	0%
1-25	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	A	74-68	L	0%
1-28	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	H	79-82	L	0%
2-1	Stephen F. Austin (202.0)	Slnd	A	71-63	L	0%
2-4	Nicholls St. (298.0)	Slnd	A	96-75	L	0%
2-8	Central Arkansas (321.0)	Slnd	H	94-63	W	100%
2-11	Texas Arlington (111.0)	Slnd	A	73-53	L	0%
2-15	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (319.0)	Slnd	H	79-61	W	100%
2-18	South Dakota (291.0)	Sum	A	92-93	W	100%
2-22	Southeastern Louisiana (318.0)	Slnd	A	61-62	W	100%
2-25	Texas San Antonio (196.0)	Slnd	A	52-66	W	100%
2-29	Lamar (108.0)	Slnd	H	65-81	L	0%
3-3	Sam Houston St. (273.0)	Slnd	H	61-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Texas St.	Slnd	26.25	26.25	35.96	35.96	-7.37	-7.37
Texas Arlington	Slnd	4.78	4.78	72.41	72.41	2.14	2.14
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	4.70	4.70	26.92	26.92	-2.17	-2.17
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	4.68	4.68	53.57	53.57	0.33	0.33
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.67	4.67	53.85	53.85	0.36	0.36
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.64	4.64	17.86	17.86	-2.99	-2.99
Houston	CUSA	3.97	3.97	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Lamar	Slnd	2.77	2.77	64.52	64.52	0.80	0.80
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.75	2.75	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.72	2.72	25.93	25.93	-1.31	-1.31
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.62	2.62	42.86	42.86	-0.37	-0.37
Central Arkansas	Slnd	2.59	2.59	24.00	24.00	-1.34	-1.34
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.59	2.59	36.00	36.00	-0.72	-0.72
Texas Pan American	GWC	2.24	2.24	22.22	22.22	-1.25	-1.25
Houston Baptist	GWC	2.09	2.09	26.92	26.92	-0.96	-0.96
Texas	B12	2.09	2.09	59.38	59.38	0.39	0.39
Toledo	MAC	2.06	2.06	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	2.02	2.02	58.62	58.62	0.35	0.35
Fordham	A10	1.92	1.92	32.14	32.14	-0.69	-0.69
Long Island	NEC	1.92	1.92	75.00	75.00	0.96	0.96
South Dakota	Sum	1.92	1.92	29.17	29.17	-0.80	-0.80
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.36	0.36	46.88	46.88	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.29	0.29	48.28	48.28	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	B12	0.26	0.26	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Tulsa	CUSA	0.23	0.23	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.23	0.23	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
Utah Valley	GWC	0.21	0.21	57.14	57.14	0.03	0.03
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.20	0.20	39.29	39.29	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tulane	CUSA	0.20	0.20	44.83	44.83	-0.02	-0.02
Samford	SC	0.19	0.19	32.14	32.14	-0.07	-0.07
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.19	0.19	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	GWC	0.17	0.17	48.15	48.15	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.17	0.17	10.71	10.71	-0.13	-0.13
North Texas	SB	0.16	0.16	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Oakland	Sum	0.14	0.14	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.14	0.14	81.82	81.82	0.09	0.09
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Arkansas	SEC	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mercer	ASun	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Texas Christian	MWC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.13	0.13	6.67	6.67	-0.11	-0.11
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Temple	A10	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Missouri	B12	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
IUPUI	Sum	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.10	0.10	6.90	6.90	-0.09	-0.09
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Rhode Island	A10	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	NEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Southern Utah	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	37.04	37.04	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.07	0.07	48.15	48.15	-0.00	-0.00
Florida International	SB	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
High Point	BSth	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.07	0.07	11.11	11.11	-0.05	-0.05
Notre Dame	BE	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling	SWAC	0.07	0.07	14.29	14.29	-0.05	-0.05
Memphis	CUSA	0.07	0.07	76.47	76.47	0.04	0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Belmont	ASun	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Denver	SB	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	78.57	78.57	0.04	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	13.79	13.79	-0.04	-0.04
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	81.82	81.82	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.04	0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.04	0.04	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.04	0.04	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.04	0.04	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.04	0.04	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.04	0.04	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.04	0.04	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	SB	0.04	0.04	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	MVC	0.04	0.04	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.04	0.04	81.25	81.25	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.04	0.04	21.43	21.43	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.04	0.04	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	6.45	6.45	-0.03	-0.03
California	P12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	BE	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	86.21	86.21	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
St. Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
NC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	64.29	64.29	0.01	0.01
George Mason	CAA	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	94.12	94.12	0.03	0.03
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	74.29	74.29	0.01	0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01