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Through games of Mar 4, 2015.


Texas St.

Conference:SB
Expected RPI:226.3
Current RPI:235
Expected SOS:192
Current SOS:197
Current Record:10-14
Expected Record:11-15
Current Conf Record:7-11
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.83%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:10-4
Current OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC Record:3-3
Expected OOC RPI:105
Expected OOC SOS:107



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-14207.616.12%
11-15223.152.22%
10-16241.031.66%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Seattle (287.3)WACA53-62W100%0.0
11-19Lamar (227.4)SlndH65-55W100%0.0
11-22UTSA (225.4)CUSAA80-67L0%0.0
12-6Prairie View A&M (257.4)SWACH81-65W100%0.0
12-13Texas (41.3)B12A59-27L0%0.0
12-17Stephen F. Austin (48.0)SlndA66-60L0%0.0
12-30Troy (308.5)SBA46-57W100%0.0
1-3Georgia Southern (124.6)SBA40-36L0%0.0
1-5Georgia St. (74.0)SBA74-77W100%0.0
1-8Arkansas Little Rock (261.0)SBH77-74W100%0.0
1-10Louisiana Monroe (129.5)SBH59-62L0%0.0
1-15South Alabama (292.8)SBH82-71W100%0.0
1-17Arkansas St. (264.8)SBA78-73L0%0.0
1-19UT Arlington (160.0)SBA66-55L0%0.0
1-22Georgia Southern (124.6)SBH43-45L0%0.0
1-24Appalachian St. (272.1)SBH58-64L0%0.0
1-31Louisiana Lafayette (156.8)SBH63-72L0%0.0
2-4South Alabama (292.8)SBA43-63W100%0.0
2-7Arkansas Little Rock (261.0)SBA69-61L0%0.0
2-12UT Arlington (160.0)SBH61-70L0%0.0
2-14Georgia St. (74.0)SBH41-53L0%0.0
2-19Louisiana Lafayette (156.8)SBA64-42L0%0.0
2-26Troy (308.5)SBH67-61W100%0.0
2-28Arkansas St. (264.8)SBH70-60W100%0.0
3-5Appalachian St. (272.1)SBA0-056%1.4
3-7Louisiana Monroe (129.5)SBA0-028%-5.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas St.SB26.5826.5741.0742.75-4.75-3.85
Arkansas St.SB5.315.1137.5038.24-1.33-1.20
UT ArlingtonSB5.345.1152.0051.730.210.18
Georgia St.SB5.315.0869.2369.592.041.99
Appalachian St.SB3.355.0834.6234.56-1.03-1.57
Arkansas Little RockSB5.365.0842.3141.43-0.82-0.87
South AlabamaSB5.275.0828.0029.38-2.32-2.10
Louisiana LafayetteSB5.275.0850.0052.020.000.20
Louisiana MonroeSB3.355.0758.3357.280.560.74
TroySB5.355.0733.3333.66-1.78-1.66
Georgia SouthernSB5.265.0668.1866.231.911.64
LamarSlnd2.242.0645.8344.75-0.19-0.22
Stephen F. AustinSlnd2.202.0384.0083.931.501.38
TexasB122.161.9958.6259.580.370.38
Prairie View A&MSWAC2.121.9644.4446.72-0.24-0.13
SeattleWAC2.081.9250.0049.620.00-0.01
UTSACUSA2.081.9241.6743.78-0.35-0.24
Central ArkansasSlnd0.320.287.417.65-0.27-0.24
Southern MissCUSA0.320.2726.9226.01-0.15-0.13
Northwestern St.Slnd0.200.2556.5255.720.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.240.2131.8231.52-0.09-0.08
Green BayHorz0.220.1975.0075.000.110.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.210.1823.0823.57-0.11-0.10
McNeese St.Slnd0.200.1837.5039.77-0.05-0.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.120.1776.0074.340.060.09
RiceCUSA0.160.1732.0031.14-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1715.3814.76-0.11-0.12
Iowa St.B120.190.1672.4172.040.080.07
Incarnate WordSlnd0.160.1459.0960.710.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.160.1421.7424.09-0.09-0.07
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.160.1453.8556.030.010.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.120.1450.0050.330.000.00
UMKCWAC0.160.1439.2940.13-0.03-0.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1475.8676.590.080.07
Chicago St.WAC0.160.1418.5217.90-0.10-0.09
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1424.1423.74-0.08-0.07
North TexasCUSA0.120.1446.1544.40-0.01-0.02
TulsaAmer0.150.1375.0073.140.080.06
Jackson St.SWAC0.150.1334.4836.60-0.05-0.04
BradleyMVC0.150.1323.3323.33-0.08-0.07
IUPUISum0.150.1333.3333.33-0.05-0.04
TCUB120.150.1356.6756.090.020.02
BaylorB120.150.1372.4173.240.070.06
FIUCUSA0.130.1140.7440.32-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.120.1126.9225.63-0.06-0.05
UABCUSA0.080.1153.5754.420.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1121.4321.43-0.07-0.06
MarshallCUSA0.120.1033.3331.64-0.04-0.04
CharlotteCUSA0.080.1044.8346.90-0.01-0.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.120.1050.0050.800.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.120.1058.6260.320.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1078.5779.290.070.06
KentuckySEC0.110.10100.0099.900.110.10
Oklahoma St.B120.110.0960.7159.690.020.02
Texas TechB120.110.0943.3342.03-0.01-0.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.080.0737.0437.87-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.090.0763.3362.470.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0764.2965.480.020.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0728.5728.70-0.04-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0727.5928.43-0.04-0.03
StetsonASun0.090.0721.4321.43-0.05-0.04
UCFAmer0.090.0739.2939.29-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.080.0730.7731.10-0.03-0.03
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0727.2727.95-0.04-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.080.0728.5730.86-0.04-0.03
Coastal CarolinaBSth0.040.0765.3865.380.010.02
FloridaSEC0.040.0750.0048.490.00-0.00
GeorgiaSEC0.080.0765.5265.870.020.02
MississippiSEC0.080.0766.6766.650.030.02
New MexicoMWC0.040.0748.2848.71-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.040.0754.8454.840.000.01
SamfordSC0.040.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.080.0767.8669.260.030.03
AuburnSEC0.080.0737.9337.47-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0737.9338.93-0.02-0.02
NiagaraMAAC0.080.0727.5927.59-0.04-0.03
Oral RobertsSum0.080.0753.5753.570.010.00
PurdueB100.080.0763.3363.340.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.080.0759.2659.260.010.01
ToledoMAC0.080.0763.3363.010.020.02
MemphisAmer0.080.0758.6256.740.010.01
AlabamaSEC0.040.0755.1754.370.000.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0768.9769.160.030.03
BYUWCC0.070.0772.4172.410.030.03
DetroitHorz0.080.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.040.0722.2222.22-0.02-0.04
Georgia TechACC0.040.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.040.0742.8642.76-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.040.0761.2961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.080.0746.4346.43-0.01-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.040.0724.1424.14-0.02-0.03
Kent St.MAC0.070.0765.5265.390.020.02
Miami FLACC0.080.0763.3363.690.020.02
Missouri St.MVC0.070.0732.1432.14-0.03-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.080.0721.4321.45-0.04-0.04
NJITind0.080.0756.0056.000.010.01
OhioMAC0.040.0732.1432.89-0.01-0.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0757.1457.140.010.01
RichmondA100.080.0760.0061.150.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.080.0757.6958.370.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.040.0733.3333.08-0.01-0.02
Weber St.BSky0.080.0740.0040.12-0.02-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.070.0742.8645.04-0.01-0.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.070.0628.0029.85-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0660.8761.600.020.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.070.0635.4836.32-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.070.0682.7681.940.050.04
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.060.000.74-0.07-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0620.0020.58-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.040.0644.4443.51-0.00-0.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.070.0680.0078.510.040.04
Kansas St.B120.030.0650.0048.800.00-0.00
OklahomaB120.070.0668.9768.870.030.02
West VirginiaB120.070.0673.3373.200.030.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.040.0425.9325.33-0.02-0.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.040.0469.2369.550.020.01
IndianaB100.040.0463.3362.750.010.01
MinnesotaB100.040.0457.1456.730.010.00
MontanaBSky0.040.0457.6958.440.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.040.0439.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.040.0468.0066.550.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.040.040.000.13-0.04-0.04
SMUAmer0.040.0478.5778.590.020.02
UC DavisBW0.040.0480.0079.440.020.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.040.0455.5656.070.000.00
WashingtonP120.040.0453.5752.290.000.00
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.040.0424.0024.96-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.040.0457.1457.140.010.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.040.0453.5754.710.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.040.0430.7731.71-0.02-0.01
Washington St.P120.040.0442.8641.43-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.040.0461.5458.930.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.040.0390.0090.000.030.03
XavierBE0.040.0360.0060.260.010.01
BrownIvy0.040.0340.7438.89-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.040.0358.6258.810.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0358.6255.600.010.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0360.7160.320.010.01
IowaB100.030.0366.6767.370.010.01
LipscombASun0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
StanfordP120.030.0364.2961.970.010.01