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Through games of Mar 16, 2014.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:255.0
Current RPI:255
Expected SOS:170
Current SOS:170
Current Record:9-18
Expected Record:9-18
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:6-9
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-4
Current OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC Record:3-9
Expected OOC RPI:246
Expected OOC SOS:145



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
9-18255.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-9St. Bonaventure (89.0)A10A68-46L0%0.0
11-11Canisius (96.0)MAACA71-66L0%0.0
11-22Wyoming (135.0)MWCA70-53L0%0.0
11-25Texas St. (307.0)SBA56-57W100%0.0
12-2Utah Valley (144.0)WACH71-67W100%0.0
12-5Air Force (251.0)MWCA94-86L0%0.0
12-7Wyoming (135.0)MWCN66-67L0%0.0
12-10Kansas St. (51.0)B12A64-62L0%0.0
12-14Green Bay (58.0)HorzH85-89L0%0.0
12-19Morehead St. (141.0)OVCA120-83L0%0.0
12-29Youngstown St. (237.0)HorzA85-59L0%0.0
1-2Cal St. Northridge (253.0)BWH76-75W100%0.0
1-11Denver (139.0)SumH59-54W100%0.0
1-16IUPUI (322.0)SumH69-57W100%0.0
1-18IPFW (115.0)SumH75-61W100%0.0
1-23Western Illinois (290.0)SumA79-61L0%0.0
1-25Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumA77-73L0%0.0
1-30North Dakota St. (35.0)SumH63-66L0%0.0
2-1South Dakota St. (138.0)SumH68-70L0%0.0
2-8Denver (139.0)SumA75-67L0%0.0
2-13IPFW (115.0)SumA75-69L0%0.0
2-15IUPUI (322.0)SumA67-71W100%0.0
2-20Nebraska Omaha (219.0)SumH87-86W100%0.0
2-22Western Illinois (290.0)SumH64-54W100%0.0
2-27North Dakota St. (35.0)SumA82-54L0%0.0
3-1South Dakota St. (138.0)SumA75-61L0%0.0
3-9Denver (139.0)SumN55-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum26.5026.5033.3333.33-8.83-8.83
DenverSum6.476.4748.1548.15-0.24-0.24
IPFWSum4.754.7568.9768.971.801.80
North Dakota St.Sum4.734.7376.9276.922.552.55
South Dakota St.Sum4.674.6753.8553.850.360.36
IUPUISum4.644.6411.1111.11-3.61-3.61
Western IllinoisSum4.604.6024.0024.00-2.39-2.39
Nebraska OmahaSum4.544.5448.0048.00-0.18-0.18
WyomingMWC3.863.8650.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC1.981.9864.2964.290.570.57
Air ForceMWC1.981.9833.3333.33-0.66-0.66
Youngstown St.Horz1.921.9239.2939.29-0.41-0.41
Green BayHorz1.921.9276.9276.921.031.03
CanisiusMAAC1.881.8864.5264.520.550.55
St. BonaventureA101.881.8851.6151.610.060.06
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.851.8546.8846.88-0.12-0.12
Kansas St.B121.851.8561.2961.290.420.42
Morehead St.OVC1.851.8556.6756.670.250.25
Texas St.SB1.851.8521.4321.43-1.06-1.06
NevadaMWC0.290.2946.8846.88-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.280.2846.6746.67-0.02-0.02
UNLVMWC0.260.2660.6160.610.050.05
Utah St.MWC0.260.2654.8454.840.020.02
Fresno St.MWC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.250.2571.8871.880.110.11
Tennessee TechOVC0.250.2548.3948.39-0.01-0.01
UMKCWAC0.230.2334.4834.48-0.07-0.07
IdahoWAC0.220.2245.4545.45-0.02-0.02
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.220.2232.1432.14-0.08-0.08
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1967.8667.860.070.07
Boise St.MWC0.190.1959.3859.380.040.04
San Jose St.MWC0.190.1917.2417.24-0.12-0.12
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.190.1953.3353.330.010.01
MilwaukeeHorz0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
OaklandHorz0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
Wright St.Horz0.160.1656.2556.250.020.02
TroySB0.160.1631.0331.03-0.06-0.06
Alcorn St.SWAC0.160.1632.1432.14-0.06-0.06
UTEPCUSA0.160.1667.7467.740.060.06
SeattleWAC0.160.1639.2939.29-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.160.1646.6746.67-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
New MexicoMWC0.160.1681.8281.820.100.10
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.160.1625.8125.81-0.08-0.08
HawaiiBW0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.150.1570.9770.970.060.06
Saint Joseph'sA100.150.1572.7372.730.070.07
UC IrvineBW0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.140.1443.3343.33-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.140.1425.0025.00-0.07-0.07
MinnesotaB100.130.1359.3859.380.030.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.130.1363.3363.330.040.04
DetroitHorz0.130.1336.6736.67-0.04-0.04
DrakeMVC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UICHorz0.130.1313.7913.79-0.10-0.10
ValparaisoHorz0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.130.1348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.130.1373.5373.530.060.06
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1387.1087.100.090.09
HarvardIvy0.130.1386.2186.210.090.09
Arkansas St.SB0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
RiderMAAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Texas TechB120.120.1243.7543.75-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.120.1237.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
SienaMAAC0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Chicago St.WAC0.100.1036.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.100.1024.0024.00-0.05-0.05
Southern MissCUSA0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
DelawareCAA0.100.1073.5373.530.040.04
Notre DameACC0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
Jackson St.SWAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
ChattanoogaSC0.090.0951.7251.720.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Georgia St.SB0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
CaliforniaP120.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
MercerASun0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
St. Francis PANEC0.090.0932.2632.26-0.03-0.03
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0921.8821.88-0.05-0.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.0913.7913.79-0.07-0.07
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0920.6920.69-0.05-0.05
RichmondA100.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.090.0955.1755.170.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0935.7135.71-0.03-0.03
MassachusettsA100.090.0975.0075.000.040.04
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0963.6463.640.020.02
TexasB120.090.0969.7069.700.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.090.0931.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UC DavisBW0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.090.0969.7069.700.030.03
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.090.0953.5753.570.010.01
Iowa St.B120.090.0978.7978.790.050.05
La SalleA100.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0921.2121.21-0.05-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
IowaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
NebraskaB100.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0748.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0730.7730.77-0.03-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.070.0761.2961.290.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.0754.8454.840.010.01
HowardMEAC0.070.0719.3519.35-0.04-0.04
LehighPat0.070.0743.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.070.0753.5753.570.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.070.0738.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.070.0767.7467.740.020.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Arkansas Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0667.7467.740.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0634.6234.62-0.02-0.02
MarquetteBE0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
MissouriSEC0.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
Nicholls St.Slnd0.060.0646.1546.15-0.00-0.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.060.0683.8783.870.040.04
NorthwesternB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckySB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSlnd0.060.0644.8344.83-0.01-0.01
TulaneCUSA0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.060.0693.1093.100.050.05
DartmouthIvy0.060.0638.4638.46-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0613.7913.79-0.04-0.04
BaylorB120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0664.2964.290.020.02
DuquesneA100.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.060.0675.0075.000.030.03
KansasB120.060.0672.7372.730.030.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
MaristMAAC0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0634.3834.38-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
West VirginiaB120.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
TulsaCUSA0.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
VMIBSth0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
FIUCUSA0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HoustonAmer0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0373.5373.530.020.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
St. John'sBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
East Tennessee St.ASun0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MarshallCUSA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.030.0359.2659.260.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
XavierBE0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
CornellIvy0.030.033.703.70-0.03-0.03
ElonSC0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
FordhamA100.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
LamarSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
MississippiSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Rhode IslandA100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
RutgersAmer0.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
St. Francis NYNEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0376.4776.470.020.02
WagnerNEC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.033.573.57-0.03-0.03
USCP120.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01