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Through games of Mar 13, 2016.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:197.0
Current RPI:197
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:149
Current Record:12-18
Expected Record:12-18
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:154
Expected OOC SOS:225



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
12-18197.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wright St. (146.0)HorzN77-69L0%0.0
11-14Northern Illinois (136.0)MACA72-65L0%0.0
11-15Cal St. Northridge (280.0)BWN76-72W100%0.0
11-20Kansas St. (92.0)B12A93-72L0%0.0
11-28Sacramento St. (273.0)BSkyA90-96W100%0.0
11-29Eastern Washington (233.0)BSkyN71-77W100%0.0
12-5Minnesota (257.0)B10A81-85W100%0.0
12-8UMKC (286.0)WACH79-70W100%0.0
12-12Cal St. Bakersfield (117.0)WACH67-77L0%0.0
12-17Milwaukee (173.0)HorzA91-92W100%0.0
12-19Illinois (149.0)B10A91-79L0%0.0
12-22UNLV (147.0)MWCA103-68L0%0.0
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (209.0)ASunH89-81W100%0.0
1-1IUPUI (189.0)SumH66-77L0%0.0
1-3Oral Roberts (148.0)SumA84-94W100%0.0
1-6IPFW (71.0)SumA85-65L0%0.0
1-9Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumH73-79L0%0.0
1-13North Dakota St. (120.0)SumA66-65L0%0.0
1-20Western Illinois (262.0)SumH76-67W100%0.0
1-23South Dakota St. (29.0)SumH75-79L0%0.0
1-28Denver (188.0)SumA66-52L0%0.0
1-30Nebraska Omaha (144.0)SumA96-83L0%0.0
2-4IPFW (71.0)SumH82-95L0%0.0
2-6Oral Roberts (148.0)SumH91-79W100%0.0
2-11North Dakota St. (120.0)SumH72-58W100%0.0
2-13South Dakota St. (29.0)SumA85-68L0%0.0
2-21Denver (188.0)SumH71-76L0%0.0
2-25IUPUI (189.0)SumA82-85W100%0.0
2-27Western Illinois (262.0)SumA90-76L0%0.0
3-5IPFW (71.0)SumH70-86L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum26.4026.4041.6741.67-4.40-4.40
IPFWSum5.855.8567.8667.862.092.09
South Dakota St.Sum4.444.4475.8675.862.292.29
North Dakota St.Sum4.404.4058.6258.620.760.76
DenverSum4.354.3548.2848.28-0.15-0.15
Nebraska OmahaSum4.294.2951.8551.850.160.16
IUPUISum4.244.2437.9337.93-1.02-1.02
Oral RobertsSum4.234.2344.4444.44-0.47-0.47
Western IllinoisSum4.154.1527.2727.27-1.89-1.89
MinnesotaB101.911.9126.6726.67-0.89-0.89
UMKCWAC1.861.8633.3333.33-0.62-0.62
IllinoisB101.801.8042.4242.42-0.27-0.27
MilwaukeeHorz1.801.8060.0060.000.360.36
Wright St.Horz1.781.7859.3859.380.330.33
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.781.7851.7251.720.060.06
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.731.7371.4371.430.740.74
Sacramento St.BSky1.721.7242.8642.86-0.25-0.25
Northern IllinoisMAC1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
Florida Gulf CoastASun1.721.7257.1457.140.250.25
Kansas St.B121.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
UNLVMWC1.671.6750.0050.000.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.300.303.453.45-0.27-0.27
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.250.2510.7110.71-0.20-0.20
Weber St.BSky0.250.2574.1974.190.120.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.230.2367.7467.740.080.08
SeattleWAC0.230.2342.8642.86-0.03-0.03
IdahoBSky0.230.2361.2961.290.050.05
Montana St.BSky0.230.2343.3343.33-0.03-0.03
Idaho St.BSky0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
IndianaB100.210.2178.1278.120.120.12
Utah ValleyWAC0.200.2033.3333.33-0.07-0.07
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.2039.2939.29-0.04-0.04
Missouri St.MVC0.200.2038.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Northern ColoradoBSky0.200.2027.5927.59-0.09-0.09
WyomingMWC0.190.1940.0040.00-0.04-0.04
North DakotaBSky0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.190.1937.5037.50-0.05-0.05
DetroitHorz0.190.1948.2848.28-0.01-0.01
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1880.0080.000.110.11
IowaB100.180.1867.7467.740.060.06
Grand CanyonWAC0.170.1779.3179.310.100.10
WisconsinB100.170.1762.5062.500.040.04
Portland St.BSky0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.170.1732.1432.14-0.06-0.06
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.170.1756.6756.670.020.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.170.1718.5218.52-0.11-0.11
UC RiversideBW0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
MontanaBSky0.170.1762.0762.070.040.04
Cal PolyBW0.170.1728.5728.57-0.07-0.07
StetsonASun0.170.1726.6726.67-0.08-0.08
Western MichiganMAC0.170.1736.6736.67-0.04-0.04
Southern UtahBSky0.160.1614.2914.29-0.12-0.12
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.160.1623.3323.33-0.08-0.08
Green BayHorz0.160.1663.6463.640.040.04
Northern ArizonaBSky0.140.1410.7110.71-0.11-0.11
Kennesaw St.ASun0.140.1431.0331.03-0.05-0.05
JacksonvilleASun0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
LipscombASun0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
MissouriSEC0.140.1432.2632.26-0.05-0.05
Air ForceMWC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1330.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Oklahoma St.B120.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.130.1325.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Texas TechB120.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
PurdueB100.130.1376.4776.470.070.07
OaklandHorz0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Iowa St.B120.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
CreightonBE0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.110.1148.2848.28-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
OhioMAC0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
New MexicoMWC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
North FloridaASun0.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Fresno St.MWC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
OklahomaB120.110.1178.1278.120.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.110.1121.4321.43-0.06-0.06
South AlabamaSB0.110.1138.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Ohio St.B100.100.1060.6160.610.020.02
TCUB120.100.1036.3636.36-0.03-0.03
RutgersB100.100.1019.3519.35-0.06-0.06
Tennessee MartinOVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
Arizona St.P120.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
San DiegoWCC0.080.0827.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
Santa ClaraWCC0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UtahP120.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Utah St.MWC0.080.0848.2848.28-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
NorthwesternB100.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
KansasB120.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0628.5728.57-0.03-0.03
HawaiiBW0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0671.8871.880.030.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0648.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
ColoradoP120.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
LSUSEC0.060.0657.5857.580.010.01
NJITASun0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
South CarolinaSEC0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
SouthernSWAC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
ToledoMAC0.060.0651.6151.610.000.00
TulsaAmer0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
UCLAP120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
PacificWCC0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
NevadaMWC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
Western CarolinaSC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
MarylandB100.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
Michigan St.B100.050.0585.2985.290.040.04
NebraskaB100.050.0547.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Notre DameACC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Penn St.B100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BaylorB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
TexasB120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0576.4776.470.030.03
DrakeMVC0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
USCP120.030.0363.6463.640.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0356.0056.000.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
La SalleA100.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
MassachusettsA100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0383.8783.870.020.02
StanfordP120.030.0348.2848.28-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
ArizonaP120.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
DuquesneA100.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
OregonP120.030.0381.8281.820.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0321.4321.43-0.02-0.02
TempleAmer0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Wichita St.MVC0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
Saint LouisA100.030.0334.3834.38-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
XavierBE0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0280.6580.650.020.02
YaleIvy0.020.0277.7877.780.010.01