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Through games of Feb 7, 2012.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:281.9
Current RPI:271
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:225
Current Record:5-14
Expected Record:7-18
Current Conf Record:3-10
Expected Conf Record:5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:0.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-6
Current OOC Record:2-4
Expected OOC Record:3-4
Expected OOC RPI:289
Expected OOC SOS:336



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-14221.20.10%
10-15240.01.59%
9-16257.99.81%
8-17273.427.51%
7-18286.335.37%
6-19295.721.20%
5-20304.04.41%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nebraska (125.8)B10A65-48L0%0.0
11-15Eastern Washington (209.8)BSkyA70-61L0%0.0
11-22Wyoming (56.6)MWCA67-56L0%0.0
12-1Oakland (138.0)SumA101-83L0%0.0
12-3IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)SumA92-87L0%0.0
12-8Canisius (323.0)MAACA55-67W100%0.0
12-10Morehead St. (187.2)OVCA56-57W100%0.0
12-18Canisius (323.0)MAACH80-90L0%0.0
12-28Southern Utah (233.2)SumH75-81L0%0.0
12-30Oral Roberts (45.1)SumH67-79L0%0.0
1-3Western Illinois (181.7)SumA67-44L0%0.0
1-7Missouri Kansas City (242.4)SumA57-76W100%0.0
1-12South Dakota St. (58.0)SumA86-56L0%0.0
1-14North Dakota St. (127.4)SumA82-59L0%0.0
1-19IUPUI (246.0)SumH88-78W100%0.0
1-21Western Illinois (181.7)SumH45-47L0%0.0
1-26Oral Roberts (45.1)SumA97-64L0%0.0
1-28Southern Utah (233.2)SumA62-60L0%0.0
2-4Missouri Kansas City (242.4)SumH79-63W100%0.0
2-9South Dakota St. (58.0)SumH0-013%-12.3
2-11North Dakota St. (127.4)SumH0-022%-8.3
2-15IUPUI (246.0)SumA0-025%-7.2
2-18Texas St. (317.2)SlndH0-066%4.5
2-23IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)SumH0-060%2.9
2-25Oakland (138.0)SumH0-033%-4.7


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum26.7126.6031.7629.80-9.74-10.75
Missouri Kansas CitySum6.315.2238.1037.80-1.50-1.27
South Dakota St.Sum3.745.1872.7374.141.702.50
Oral RobertsSum6.215.1679.1779.443.633.04
OaklandSum3.765.1545.8347.92-0.31-0.21
IUPUISum3.715.1536.3635.40-1.01-1.50
North Dakota St.Sum3.675.1460.0061.500.731.18
Southern UtahSum6.215.1440.0039.81-1.24-1.05
IUPU Fort WayneSum3.775.1330.0029.05-1.51-2.15
Western IllinoisSum6.065.1347.0643.83-0.36-0.63
CanisiusMAAC5.384.0714.2917.52-3.84-2.64
NebraskaB102.692.0747.6243.02-0.13-0.29
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.632.0038.1042.22-0.63-0.31
Morehead St.OVC2.632.0047.6248.83-0.13-0.05
Texas St.Slnd0.002.0022.2227.31-0.00-0.91
WyomingMWC2.632.0075.0069.621.320.78
North DakotaGWC0.570.4433.3341.30-0.19-0.08
ValparaisoHorz0.170.2165.2263.550.050.06
MinnesotaB100.180.2170.8362.750.070.05
Western MichiganMAC0.110.2140.9142.97-0.02-0.03
Utah ValleyGWC0.290.2154.5557.710.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.170.2136.0040.36-0.05-0.04
UC DavisBW0.300.180.005.31-0.30-0.16
MichiganB100.190.1869.5766.330.070.06
Ball St.MAC0.170.1755.0057.420.020.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.200.1533.3334.54-0.07-0.05
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.1550.0051.750.000.01
TroySB0.240.1528.5730.17-0.10-0.06
IowaB100.120.1554.1749.410.01-0.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.1526.3229.85-0.03-0.06
Northern ArizonaBSky0.180.1513.6416.23-0.13-0.10
San Diego St.MWC0.180.1585.7178.110.130.08
Weber St.BSky0.180.1580.0076.710.110.08
HoustonCUSA0.050.1447.6244.58-0.00-0.02
Idaho St.BSky0.130.1431.8232.98-0.05-0.05
Texas San AntonioSlnd0.100.1457.1460.720.010.03
XavierA100.160.1465.2263.690.050.04
Nevada Las VegasMWC0.180.1482.6181.430.120.09
New MexicoMWC0.180.1481.8281.020.110.09
BuffaloMAC0.110.1468.4266.510.040.05
FairfieldMAAC0.230.1456.5254.880.030.01
IonaMAAC0.230.1479.1780.140.130.08
Longwoodind0.230.1428.5725.79-0.10-0.07
Loyola MDMAAC0.230.1478.2674.290.130.07
ManhattanMAAC0.110.1468.0069.080.040.05
MaristMAAC0.230.1434.7833.44-0.07-0.05
Michigan St.B100.170.1477.2773.500.100.06
RiderMAAC0.110.1440.0039.70-0.02-0.03
SienaMAAC0.000.1443.4845.03-0.00-0.01
St. Peter'sMAAC0.230.1420.8323.73-0.13-0.07
WisconsinB100.230.1475.0074.010.120.07
Austin PeayOVC0.160.1432.0035.39-0.06-0.04
Arkansas Little RockSB0.160.1343.4844.26-0.02-0.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.120.114.359.74-0.11-0.09
PurdueB100.060.1162.5060.780.020.02
Wisconsin Green BayHorz0.130.1135.0039.40-0.04-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.1125.0023.73-0.00-0.06
Northern ColoradoBSky0.120.1130.0031.40-0.05-0.04
Portland St.BSky0.120.1142.8645.93-0.02-0.01
Texas ChristianMWC0.120.1157.1449.570.02-0.00
BinghamtonAE0.170.100.004.04-0.17-0.10
BradleyMVC0.180.1024.0024.86-0.09-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.170.1047.6247.19-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.060.1062.5062.070.010.02
GonzagaWCC0.160.1081.8281.500.100.06
West VirginiaBE0.160.1066.6765.980.050.03
DaytonA100.140.0860.8760.960.030.02
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0847.8347.08-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.140.0828.5729.05-0.06-0.03
Chicago St.GWC0.060.089.0912.82-0.05-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.060.0814.2917.12-0.04-0.05
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0844.4448.16-0.00-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.0817.3920.75-0.00-0.04
Texas ArlingtonSlnd0.000.0876.1975.980.000.04
Arizona St.P120.060.0730.4331.40-0.02-0.03
BryantNEC0.120.078.3310.84-0.10-0.06
Fresno St.WAC0.060.0739.1344.46-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0754.1754.760.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.060.0756.5253.760.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.0742.8639.66-0.00-0.02
Utah St.WAC0.120.0750.0052.950.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.060.0747.3742.13-0.00-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.060.0742.8641.08-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0766.6760.840.020.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.060.0734.7838.43-0.02-0.02
MontanaBSky0.120.0771.4373.990.050.03
Montana St.BSky0.120.0745.0041.71-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.120.0730.0033.22-0.05-0.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0726.3229.64-0.03-0.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.120.0760.8759.850.030.01
UC IrvineBW0.060.0735.0035.26-0.02-0.02
OregonP120.120.0769.5764.490.050.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0740.9138.38-0.01-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0780.9577.450.040.04
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0745.4541.17-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.060.0769.5761.840.020.02
James MadisonCAA0.110.0740.0040.17-0.02-0.01
LouisvilleBE0.060.0779.1774.200.030.03
Loyola ChicagoHorz0.110.0718.1819.91-0.07-0.04
MD Baltimore CountyAE0.000.0713.0414.47-0.00-0.05
MercerASun0.060.0772.0072.220.030.03
Ohio St.B100.120.0787.5085.410.090.05
Penn St.B100.060.0741.6738.63-0.01-0.02
St. BonaventureA100.110.0760.0059.090.020.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.060.0731.8242.18-0.02-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0769.5766.590.020.02
Western KentuckySB0.060.0734.7834.46-0.02-0.02
Wisconsin MilwaukeeHorz0.060.0756.5257.810.010.01
WoffordSC0.110.0756.5257.200.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0741.6740.47-0.00-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0769.5770.160.020.03
ArizonaP120.050.0766.6768.550.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.050.0769.5765.180.020.02
GramblingSWAC0.050.0714.2914.31-0.04-0.05
OhioMAC0.050.0781.8277.180.030.04
TennesseeSEC0.050.0745.4544.56-0.00-0.01
AkronMAC0.000.0668.1867.980.000.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.100.0620.8325.85-0.06-0.03
Florida InternationalSB0.100.0633.3337.11-0.03-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.100.0654.1757.110.010.01
OklahomaB120.100.0656.5253.940.010.01
Southern MethodistCUSA0.100.0638.1037.80-0.02-0.02
Texas TechB120.100.0630.4325.84-0.04-0.03
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.0427.7829.77-0.00-0.02
FordhamA100.000.0440.9134.45-0.00-0.01
Houston BaptistGWC0.000.0425.0028.48-0.00-0.02
LamarSlnd0.000.0461.9067.290.000.01
Long IslandNEC0.000.0470.8371.060.000.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.0444.4445.20-0.00-0.00
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.0455.0054.450.000.00
South Carolina UpstateASun0.000.0456.5256.800.000.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.0427.7829.51-0.00-0.02
TexasB120.000.0462.5062.200.000.01
Texas Pan AmericanGWC0.000.0419.0524.60-0.00-0.02
ToledoMAC0.000.0438.1040.84-0.00-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.000.0447.6248.81-0.00-0.00
BucknellPat0.060.0473.9175.030.030.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0465.0066.710.020.01
College of CharlestonSC0.060.0458.3359.920.010.01
ColoradoP120.060.0466.6762.690.020.01
DenverSB0.060.0470.8372.240.030.02
HawaiiWAC0.060.0457.1453.020.010.00
IdahoWAC0.060.0450.0051.460.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.060.0471.4369.050.030.01
Louisiana TechWAC0.060.0442.8643.52-0.01-0.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.060.0419.0519.39-0.04-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.060.04100.0094.580.060.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0469.5770.420.020.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0470.8364.530.020.01
PrincetonIvy0.060.0447.3752.90-0.000.00
Seattleind0.060.0422.2232.99-0.03-0.01
St. Mary'sWCC0.060.0490.9187.780.050.03
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0456.5253.060.010.00
UCLAP120.060.0454.5556.780.010.00
Washington St.P120.060.0450.0048.170.00-0.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0321.0524.33-0.03-0.02
Central MichiganMAC0.060.0328.5734.11-0.03-0.01
CreightonMVC0.060.0384.0082.620.040.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.060.0347.8347.36-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.060.0375.0075.730.030.02
NorthwesternB100.060.0363.6457.790.020.01
Rhode IslandA100.060.0320.8320.61-0.03-0.02
Southern CaliforniaP120.060.0325.0025.08-0.03-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.060.0347.8343.63-0.00-0.00