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Through games of Dec 4, 2016.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:217.7
Current RPI:182
Expected SOS:228
Current SOS:232
Current Record:4-4
Expected Record:13-16
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:7-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-5
Current OOC Record:4-4
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:168
Expected OOC SOS:142



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
21-878.00.02%
20-999.80.10%
19-10109.90.43%
18-11129.31.58%
17-12147.94.26%
16-13165.38.52%
15-14185.413.83%
14-15205.818.19%
13-16225.819.05%
12-17245.215.94%
11-18263.410.30%
10-19280.74.93%
9-20295.32.05%
8-21307.20.64%
7-22318.40.13%
6-23329.50.02%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Drake (311.0)MVCA74-79W100%0.0
11-13Bowling Green (232.0)MACH78-72W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (194.9)MACN80-77W100%0.0
11-22Houston (37.7)AmerN85-58L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (225.8)CAAN57-65L0%0.0
11-27Montana (243.3)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-30UMKC (161.4)WACA84-82L0%0.0
12-3Nebraska (86.3)B10A73-61L0%0.0
12-7Montana St. (176.6)BSkyH0-051%0.3
12-10Sacramento St. (336.3)BSkyH0-086%12.7
12-16Portland (123.5)WCCN0-030%-6.2
12-18Montana St. (176.6)BSkyA0-031%-6.0
12-21Gonzaga (10.2)WCCA0-02%-25.1
12-29Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumH0-044%-1.9
12-31South Dakota St. (240.0)SumA0-038%-3.8
1-4Denver (246.0)SumA0-041%-2.7
1-7IUPUI (158.9)SumH0-046%-1.2
1-11North Dakota St. (147.0)SumH0-046%-1.3
1-14Fort Wayne (115.6)SumH0-036%-4.5
1-18Oral Roberts (290.8)SumA0-052%0.5
1-25Western Illinois (337.0)SumH0-082%10.8
1-28Denver (246.0)SumH0-062%3.6
2-1Nebraska Omaha (145.1)SumA0-025%-8.2
2-4North Dakota St. (147.0)SumA0-026%-7.6
2-8Fort Wayne (115.6)SumA0-019%-10.7
2-11South Dakota St. (240.0)SumH0-058%2.5
2-18Oral Roberts (290.8)SumH0-071%6.8
2-23Western Illinois (337.0)SumA0-065%4.5
2-25IUPUI (158.9)SumA0-027%-7.5


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum28.4826.4452.9446.291.68-1.96
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.4242.8654.27-0.000.38
South Dakota St.Sum0.394.3925.0038.68-0.20-0.99
DenverSum0.004.3642.8644.74-0.00-0.46
Oral RobertsSum0.394.350.0021.07-0.39-2.52
IUPUISum0.004.3337.5050.72-0.000.06
Fort WayneSum0.004.3271.4369.990.001.73
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.3257.1458.530.000.74
Western IllinoisSum0.004.310.0015.79-0.00-2.95
Montana St.BSky0.003.6350.0062.630.000.92
Sacramento St.BSky0.451.990.0022.30-0.45-1.10
MontanaBSky6.251.9728.5749.70-2.68-0.01
UMKCWAC7.221.9057.1450.561.030.02
DrakeMVC6.641.810.0020.40-6.64-1.07
Bowling GreenMAC6.641.8133.3342.95-2.21-0.26
GonzagaWCC0.001.78100.0091.700.001.49
Kent St.MAC6.251.7866.6756.232.080.22
PortlandWCC0.001.7850.0053.530.000.13
NebraskaB106.251.7650.0042.930.00-0.25
HofstraCAA6.251.7257.1441.260.89-0.30
HoustonAmer6.251.7283.3377.534.170.95
IdahoBSky0.000.3350.0052.760.000.02
Miami OHMAC0.000.3142.8630.92-0.00-0.12
North DakotaBSky0.000.2833.3354.32-0.000.02
Portland St.BSky0.000.2740.0043.41-0.00-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.000.2771.4355.160.000.03
Weber St.BSky0.000.2716.6749.65-0.00-0.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.390.2228.5732.62-0.17-0.07
Southern UtahBSky0.000.210.0024.64-0.00-0.11
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.2116.6739.20-0.00-0.05
Idaho St.BSky0.000.2112.5029.15-0.00-0.09
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1960.0067.760.000.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1960.0058.590.000.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.1850.0056.740.000.02
WyomingMWC0.390.1766.6754.050.130.01
ArkansasSEC0.000.1685.7166.190.000.05
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.450.150.0025.23-0.45-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.1528.5733.77-0.00-0.05
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.1512.5023.75-0.00-0.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.000.1566.6757.300.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.1542.8647.11-0.00-0.01
PacificWCC0.000.1542.8646.14-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.1585.7153.560.000.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.1450.0041.490.00-0.02
AkronMAC0.000.1471.4368.980.000.05
PepperdineWCC0.000.1442.8633.23-0.00-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.1457.1450.080.000.00
Chicago St.WAC0.000.1320.0022.75-0.00-0.07
Kansas St.B120.000.1387.5059.310.000.02
Austin PeayOVC0.000.1333.3336.74-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.520.1350.0045.970.00-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.000.1271.4358.920.000.02
CreightonBE0.390.12100.0076.630.390.07
Iowa St.B120.000.1271.4368.070.000.04
IowaB100.000.1237.5037.74-0.00-0.03
MichiganB100.000.1275.0066.460.000.04
Michigan St.B100.000.1255.5658.610.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.1233.3352.84-0.000.01
NorthwesternB100.000.1275.0066.170.000.04
RiceCUSA0.000.1275.0071.470.000.05
Wichita St.MVC0.000.1275.0086.710.000.09
Washington St.P120.390.1242.8628.98-0.06-0.05
TulsaAmer0.000.1250.0038.050.00-0.03
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.000.1222.2221.23-0.00-0.07
Murray St.OVC0.840.1250.0061.240.000.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.1250.0054.070.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.1271.4356.250.000.01
James MadisonCAA0.000.1212.5030.68-0.00-0.05
UC RiversideBW0.000.120.0032.52-0.00-0.04
BuffaloMAC0.000.1133.3352.21-0.000.01
BYUWCC0.000.1162.5066.900.000.04
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.1133.3346.38-0.00-0.01
OhioMAC0.000.1183.3371.480.000.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.11100.0089.330.000.09
San DiegoWCC0.000.1137.5031.23-0.00-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.000.1133.3332.35-0.00-0.04
ToledoMAC0.000.1137.5047.91-0.00-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.390.1042.8638.63-0.06-0.02
PurdueB100.000.1075.0075.340.000.05
IndianaB100.000.0987.5074.490.000.05
DetroitHorz0.000.090.0021.22-0.00-0.05
IllinoisB100.000.0962.5050.710.000.00
BradleyMVC0.390.0942.8627.96-0.06-0.04
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0942.8644.71-0.00-0.01
OaklandHorz0.450.0985.7177.150.320.05
MississippiSEC0.390.0975.0048.500.20-0.00
USCP120.390.09100.0076.680.390.05
CincinnatiAmer0.450.0987.5082.360.330.06
NortheasternCAA0.450.0950.0044.400.00-0.01
Northern IllinoisMAC0.000.0942.8645.56-0.00-0.01
AmericanPat0.000.0714.2931.35-0.00-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.000.0675.0066.370.000.02
High PointBSth0.000.0642.8646.48-0.00-0.00
NavyPat0.000.0625.0037.38-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.060.0020.75-0.00-0.04
Notre DameACC0.000.06100.0077.380.000.03
StetsonASun0.000.0628.5728.24-0.00-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.000.0622.2238.49-0.00-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.0671.4356.260.000.01
XavierBE0.000.0687.5070.890.000.03
BaylorB120.000.06100.0076.590.000.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.000.0642.8660.54-0.000.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.0642.8658.58-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.0616.6744.34-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0642.8650.11-0.000.00
Little RockSB0.000.0666.6761.330.000.01
MarquetteBE0.000.0675.0066.410.000.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.0675.0070.180.000.02
OklahomaB120.000.0671.4348.350.00-0.00
PittsburghACC0.000.0675.0049.180.00-0.00
RichmondA100.000.0650.0048.210.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.000.0616.6739.49-0.00-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.000.0657.1449.130.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0033.85-0.00-0.02
ColoradoP120.000.0675.0062.620.000.02
KansasB120.000.0687.5075.860.000.03
Green BayHorz0.840.0642.8651.95-0.120.00
Air ForceMWC0.000.0657.1448.500.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.060.0023.69-0.00-0.03
CaliforniaP120.000.0685.7162.220.000.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.000.0612.5037.99-0.00-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0683.3379.850.000.04
JacksonvilleASun0.000.0657.1459.280.000.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0671.4363.930.000.02
Ohio St.B100.000.0687.5068.610.000.02
South AlabamaSB0.000.0671.4357.970.000.01
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0666.6766.180.000.02
UtahP120.000.0675.0059.790.000.01
DaytonA100.450.0671.4373.490.190.03
UCLAP120.450.06100.0086.690.450.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.000.0666.6761.550.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0633.3339.61-0.00-0.01
DelawareCAA0.000.0650.0041.990.00-0.01
DrexelCAA0.000.0650.0040.600.00-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.000.0677.7849.900.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.000.0671.4359.470.000.01
George MasonA100.890.0662.5046.900.22-0.00
MemphisAmer0.000.0675.0055.500.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.890.0614.2938.26-0.64-0.01
Oregon St.P120.000.0625.0022.93-0.00-0.03
SMUAmer0.000.0666.6766.860.000.02
TowsonCAA0.000.0642.8653.19-0.000.00
UCFAmer0.000.0685.7176.240.000.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.000.0683.3377.100.000.03
VermontAE0.840.0662.5071.320.210.02
Western MichiganMAC0.000.0616.6736.03-0.00-0.02
William & MaryCAA0.000.0633.3346.01-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.000.0612.5023.93-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.0340.0054.54-0.000.00
DePaulBE0.520.0366.6735.430.17-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.520.0366.6740.030.17-0.01
IonaMAAC0.520.0357.1464.030.070.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.000.0314.2943.58-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.000.0375.0048.030.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.000.0375.0054.670.000.00
USC UpstateASun0.000.0344.4441.30-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.0385.7183.660.000.02
ClemsonACC0.450.0371.4354.860.190.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.000.0333.3352.11-0.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.450.0350.0071.020.000.01
MarylandB100.000.0387.5059.330.000.01
MinnesotaB100.000.0387.5068.020.000.01
Penn St.B100.000.0366.6746.420.00-0.00
RutgersB100.000.0385.7145.370.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.000.0340.0058.82-0.000.01
Virginia TechACC0.450.0385.7162.990.320.01
WisconsinB100.000.0377.7876.040.000.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.000.030.0013.46-0.00-0.02
ArizonaP120.000.0375.0068.370.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.0342.8656.04-0.000.00
BryantNEC0.000.0325.0047.82-0.00-0.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.000.0328.5742.90-0.00-0.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.450.0328.5731.44-0.19-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.390.0342.8642.62-0.06-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.390.030.0017.13-0.39-0.02
CornellIvy0.450.0328.5729.95-0.19-0.01
FloridaSEC0.000.0387.5075.240.000.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.390.0316.6730.34-0.26-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.450.0325.0031.41-0.22-0.01
HarvardIvy0.000.0320.0046.79-0.00-0.00
KentuckySEC0.000.0387.5082.800.000.02
LibertyBSth0.000.0333.3348.07-0.00-0.00
LSUSEC0.450.0371.4349.170.19-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.390.0325.0034.40-0.20-0.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0325.0035.09-0.00-0.01
NJITASun0.000.0350.0049.780.00-0.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.000.030.0035.95-0.00-0.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.450.0314.2931.28-0.32-0.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0328.5736.95-0.00-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.000.0362.5069.130.000.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.390.0337.5033.74-0.10-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.000.0360.0069.120.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0337.5052.01-0.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.000.0357.1433.230.00-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.000.0371.4370.390.000.01
Stony BrookAE0.000.0328.5738.15-0.00-0.01
TempleAmer0.000.0375.0064.920.000.01
TennesseeSEC0.000.0340.0041.12-0.00-0.01
TexasB120.000.0357.1438.680.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.0357.1452.370.000.00
WoffordSC0.450.030.0034.81-0.45-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.000.0362.5051.790.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.390.0375.0051.040.200.00
OregonP120.000.0375.0072.250.000.01