South Dakota

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	281.9
Current RPI:	271
Expected SOS:	225
Current SOS:	225
Current Record:	5-14
Expected Record:	7-18
Current Conf Record:	3-10
Expected Conf Record:	5-13
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.10%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-6
Current OOC Record:	2-4
Expected OOC Record:	3-4
Expected OOC RPI:	289
Expected OOC SOS:	336

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-14	221.2	0.10%
10-15	240.0	1.59%
9-16	257.9	9.81%
8-17	273.4	27.51%
7-18	286.3	35.37%
6-19	295.7	21.20%
5-20	304.0	4.41%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-11	Nebraska (125.8)	B10	A	65-48	L	0%	0.0
11-15	Eastern Washington (209.8)	BSky	A	70-61	L	0%	0.0
11-22	Wyoming (56.6)	MWC	A	67-56	L	0%	0.0
12-1	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	A	101-83	L	0%	0.0
12-3	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	A	92-87	L	0%	0.0
12-8	Canisius (323.0)	MAAC	A	55-67	W	100%	0.0
12-10	Morehead St. (187.2)	OVC	A	56-57	W	100%	0.0
12-18	Canisius (323.0)	MAAC	H	80-90	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	H	75-81	L	0%	0.0
12-30	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	H	67-79	L	0%	0.0
1-3	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	A	67-44	L	0%	0.0
1-7	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	A	57-76	W	100%	0.0
1-12	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	A	86-56	L	0%	0.0
1-14	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	A	82-59	L	0%	0.0
1-19	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	H	88-78	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Western Illinois (181.7)	Sum	H	45-47	L	0%	0.0
1-26	Oral Roberts (45.1)	Sum	A	97-64	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Southern Utah (233.2)	Sum	A	62-60	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Missouri Kansas City (242.4)	Sum	H	79-63	W	100%	0.0
2-9	South Dakota St. (58.0)	Sum	H	0-0		13%	-12.3
2-11	North Dakota St. (127.4)	Sum	H	0-0		22%	-8.3
2-15	IUPUI (246.0)	Sum	A	0-0		25%	-7.2
2-18	Texas St. (317.2)	Slnd	H	0-0		66%	4.5
2-23	IUPU Fort Wayne (270.8)	Sum	H	0-0		60%	2.9
2-25	Oakland (138.0)	Sum	H	0-0		33%	-4.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Dakota	Sum	26.71	26.60	31.76	29.80	-9.74	-10.75
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	6.31	5.22	38.10	37.80	-1.50	-1.27
South Dakota St.	Sum	3.74	5.18	72.73	74.14	1.70	2.50
Oral Roberts	Sum	6.21	5.16	79.17	79.44	3.63	3.04
Oakland	Sum	3.76	5.15	45.83	47.92	-0.31	-0.21
IUPUI	Sum	3.71	5.15	36.36	35.40	-1.01	-1.50
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.67	5.14	60.00	61.50	0.73	1.18
Southern Utah	Sum	6.21	5.14	40.00	39.81	-1.24	-1.05
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	3.77	5.13	30.00	29.05	-1.51	-2.15
Western Illinois	Sum	6.06	5.13	47.06	43.83	-0.36	-0.63
Canisius	MAAC	5.38	4.07	14.29	17.52	-3.84	-2.64
Nebraska	B10	2.69	2.07	47.62	43.02	-0.13	-0.29
Eastern Washington	BSky	2.63	2.00	38.10	42.22	-0.63	-0.31
Morehead St.	OVC	2.63	2.00	47.62	48.83	-0.13	-0.05
Texas St.	Slnd	0.00	2.00	22.22	27.31	-0.00	-0.91
Wyoming	MWC	2.63	2.00	75.00	69.62	1.32	0.78
North Dakota	GWC	0.57	0.44	33.33	41.30	-0.19	-0.08
Valparaiso	Horz	0.17	0.21	65.22	63.55	0.05	0.06
Minnesota	B10	0.18	0.21	70.83	62.75	0.07	0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.21	40.91	42.97	-0.02	-0.03
Utah Valley	GWC	0.29	0.21	54.55	57.71	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.17	0.21	36.00	40.36	-0.05	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.30	0.18	0.00	5.31	-0.30	-0.16
Michigan	B10	0.19	0.18	69.57	66.33	0.07	0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.17	0.17	55.00	57.42	0.02	0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.20	0.15	33.33	34.54	-0.07	-0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.15	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.01
Troy	SB	0.24	0.15	28.57	30.17	-0.10	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.15	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.15	26.32	29.85	-0.03	-0.06
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.18	0.15	13.64	16.23	-0.13	-0.10
San Diego St.	MWC	0.18	0.15	85.71	78.11	0.13	0.08
Weber St.	BSky	0.18	0.15	80.00	76.71	0.11	0.08
Houston	CUSA	0.05	0.14	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.14	31.82	32.98	-0.05	-0.05
Texas San Antonio	Slnd	0.10	0.14	57.14	60.72	0.01	0.03
Xavier	A10	0.16	0.14	65.22	63.69	0.05	0.04
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.18	0.14	82.61	81.43	0.12	0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.18	0.14	81.82	81.02	0.11	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.14	68.42	66.51	0.04	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.23	0.14	56.52	54.88	0.03	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.23	0.14	79.17	80.14	0.13	0.08
Longwood	ind	0.23	0.14	28.57	25.79	-0.10	-0.07
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.23	0.14	78.26	74.29	0.13	0.07
Manhattan	MAAC	0.11	0.14	68.00	69.08	0.04	0.05
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.14	34.78	33.44	-0.07	-0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.17	0.14	77.27	73.50	0.10	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.14	40.00	39.70	-0.02	-0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.00	0.14	43.48	45.03	-0.00	-0.01
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.14	20.83	23.73	-0.13	-0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.23	0.14	75.00	74.01	0.12	0.07
Austin Peay	OVC	0.16	0.14	32.00	35.39	-0.06	-0.04
Arkansas Little Rock	SB	0.16	0.13	43.48	44.26	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.11	4.35	9.74	-0.11	-0.09
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.11	62.50	60.78	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.13	0.11	35.00	39.40	-0.04	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.00	0.11	25.00	23.73	-0.00	-0.06
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.11	30.00	31.40	-0.05	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.11	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
Texas Christian	MWC	0.12	0.11	57.14	49.57	0.02	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.10	0.00	4.04	-0.17	-0.10
Bradley	MVC	0.18	0.10	24.00	24.86	-0.09	-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.10	47.62	47.19	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.10	62.50	62.07	0.01	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.10	81.82	81.50	0.10	0.06
West Virginia	BE	0.16	0.10	66.67	65.98	0.05	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.14	0.08	60.87	60.96	0.03	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.00	0.08	47.83	47.08	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.14	0.08	28.57	29.05	-0.06	-0.03
Chicago St.	GWC	0.06	0.08	9.09	12.82	-0.05	-0.06
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.08	14.29	17.12	-0.04	-0.05
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.00	0.08	44.44	48.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.00	0.08	17.39	20.75	-0.00	-0.04
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.00	0.08	76.19	75.98	0.00	0.04
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.07	30.43	31.40	-0.02	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.12	0.07	8.33	10.84	-0.10	-0.06
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.07	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.07	56.52	53.76	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.00	0.07	42.86	39.66	-0.00	-0.02
Utah St.	WAC	0.12	0.07	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.07	47.37	42.13	-0.00	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	42.86	41.08	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	38.43	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.07	71.43	73.99	0.05	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.12	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.12	0.07	30.00	33.22	-0.05	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.06	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.12	0.07	60.87	59.85	0.03	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.07	35.00	35.26	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.12	0.07	69.57	64.49	0.05	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.07	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.07	80.95	77.45	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.07	45.45	41.17	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.07	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.07	40.00	40.17	-0.02	-0.01
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.07	79.17	74.20	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.07	18.18	19.91	-0.07	-0.04
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.00	0.07	13.04	14.47	-0.00	-0.05
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.07	72.00	72.22	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.09	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.07	41.67	38.63	-0.01	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.07	60.00	59.09	0.02	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.07	31.82	42.18	-0.02	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.07	69.57	66.59	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	SB	0.06	0.07	34.78	34.46	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.07	56.52	57.81	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.11	0.07	56.52	57.20	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.00	0.07	41.67	40.47	-0.00	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.07	69.57	70.16	0.02	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.07	66.67	68.55	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.07	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.07	14.29	14.31	-0.04	-0.05
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.07	81.82	77.18	0.03	0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.07	45.45	44.56	-0.00	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.00	0.06	68.18	67.98	0.00	0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.06	20.83	25.85	-0.06	-0.03
Florida International	SB	0.10	0.06	33.33	37.11	-0.03	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.06	54.17	57.11	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.10	0.06	56.52	53.94	0.01	0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.10	0.06	38.10	37.80	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.10	0.06	30.43	25.84	-0.04	-0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.00	0.04	27.78	29.77	-0.00	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.00	0.04	40.91	34.45	-0.00	-0.01
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.00	0.04	25.00	28.48	-0.00	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.00	0.04	61.90	67.29	0.00	0.01
Long Island	NEC	0.00	0.04	70.83	71.06	0.00	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	44.44	45.20	-0.00	-0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.00	0.04	55.00	54.45	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.00	0.04	56.52	56.80	0.00	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.00	0.04	27.78	29.51	-0.00	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.00	0.04	62.50	62.20	0.00	0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.00	0.04	19.05	24.60	-0.00	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.00	0.04	38.10	40.84	-0.00	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.00	0.04	47.62	48.81	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.04	73.91	75.03	0.03	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.04	65.00	66.71	0.02	0.01
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.04	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.04	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.01
Denver	SB	0.06	0.04	70.83	72.24	0.03	0.02
Hawaii	WAC	0.06	0.04	57.14	53.02	0.01	0.00
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.04	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.04	71.43	69.05	0.03	0.01
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.06	0.04	42.86	43.52	-0.01	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.04	19.05	19.39	-0.04	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	100.00	94.58	0.06	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.04	69.57	70.42	0.02	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.04	70.83	64.53	0.02	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.06	0.04	47.37	52.90	-0.00	0.00
Seattle	ind	0.06	0.04	22.22	32.99	-0.03	-0.01
St. Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.04	90.91	87.78	0.05	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.04	56.52	53.06	0.01	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.04	54.55	56.78	0.01	0.00
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.04	50.00	48.17	0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.03	21.05	24.33	-0.03	-0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	28.57	34.11	-0.03	-0.01
Creighton	MVC	0.06	0.03	84.00	82.62	0.04	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.03	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.03	75.00	75.73	0.03	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.03	63.64	57.79	0.02	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.03	20.83	20.61	-0.03	-0.02
Southern California	P12	0.06	0.03	25.00	25.08	-0.03	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00