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Through games of Mar 15, 2015.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:213.0
Current RPI:213
Expected SOS:251
Current SOS:251
Current Record:15-16
Expected Record:15-16
Current Conf Record:10-8
Expected Conf Record:10-8
Probability of Auto Bid:0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:11-7
Current OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC Record:5-8
Expected OOC RPI:250
Expected OOC SOS:286



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-16213.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah Valley (308.0)WACA60-52L0%0.0
11-16Stanford (59.0)P12A84-73L0%0.0
11-21Sam Houston St. (82.0)SlndN85-93L0%0.0
11-22Wofford (47.0)SCN72-68L0%0.0
11-23Fairfield (299.0)MAACA80-72L0%0.0
11-30Cal St. Bakersfield (301.0)WACA66-68W100%0.0
12-2Cal St. Northridge (282.0)BWA65-68W100%0.0
12-5Youngstown St. (291.0)HorzH79-87L0%0.0
12-9Creighton (151.0)BEA91-88L0%0.0
12-13UNLV (114.0)MWCN61-75L0%0.0
12-18Montana St. (325.0)BSkyH55-53W100%0.0
12-21Montana (144.0)BSkyA62-67W100%0.0
12-28Milwaukee (206.0)HorzH84-60W100%0.0
1-2Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumH77-86L0%0.0
1-4Denver (232.0)SumA69-74W100%0.0
1-10IPFW (215.0)SumA62-64W100%0.0
1-14North Dakota St. (92.0)SumH71-67W100%0.0
1-17South Dakota St. (90.0)SumA71-57L0%0.0
1-22Western Illinois (328.0)SumA58-68W100%0.0
1-24IUPUI (260.0)SumA65-50L0%0.0
1-29IPFW (215.0)SumH55-66L0%0.0
1-31Oral Roberts (163.0)SumH72-73L0%0.0
2-5Western Illinois (328.0)SumH75-61W100%0.0
2-7North Dakota St. (92.0)SumA71-47L0%0.0
2-12Nebraska Omaha (300.0)SumA73-74W100%0.0
2-14Oral Roberts (163.0)SumA70-83W100%0.0
2-21IUPUI (260.0)SumH77-62W100%0.0
2-25Denver (232.0)SumH48-66L0%0.0
2-28South Dakota St. (90.0)SumH80-64W100%0.0
3-8IPFW (215.0)SumN82-73W100%0.0
3-9South Dakota St. (90.0)SumN78-65L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum26.5226.5250.9750.970.510.51
South Dakota St.Sum5.835.8367.8667.862.082.08
IPFWSum5.665.6650.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum4.364.3671.4371.431.871.87
Oral RobertsSum4.254.2553.5753.570.300.30
IUPUISum4.214.2131.0331.03-1.60-1.60
DenverSum4.204.2039.2939.29-0.90-0.90
Western IllinoisSum4.184.1825.0025.00-2.09-2.09
Nebraska OmahaSum4.114.1138.4638.46-0.95-0.95
MilwaukeeHorz1.801.8044.4444.44-0.20-0.20
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
Montana St.BSky1.781.7821.4321.43-1.01-1.01
MontanaBSky1.751.7562.0762.070.420.42
Utah ValleyWAC1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
StanfordP121.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
WoffordSC1.691.6980.6580.651.041.04
Sam Houston St.Slnd1.691.6971.4371.430.720.72
Youngstown St.Horz1.671.6725.0025.00-0.84-0.84
FairfieldMAAC1.671.6720.0020.00-1.00-1.00
UNLVMWC1.671.6751.6151.610.050.05
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.641.6423.3323.33-0.88-0.88
CreightonBE1.611.6140.6240.62-0.30-0.30
IdahoBSky0.330.3339.2939.29-0.07-0.07
Idaho St.BSky0.330.3317.8617.86-0.21-0.21
UMKCWAC0.300.3038.7138.71-0.07-0.07
North DakotaBSky0.300.3021.4321.43-0.17-0.17
SeattleWAC0.220.2248.2848.28-0.01-0.01
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.220.2225.0025.00-0.11-0.11
Weber St.BSky0.220.2239.2939.29-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.220.2256.6756.670.030.03
ValparaisoHorz0.200.2083.3383.330.140.14
DetroitHorz0.190.1941.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Chicago St.WAC0.190.1917.2417.24-0.13-0.13
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.190.1974.1974.190.090.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1967.7467.740.070.07
Utah St.MWC0.180.1856.6756.670.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.180.1825.0025.00-0.09-0.09
Northern ColoradoBSky0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.160.1671.8871.880.070.07
UtahP120.150.1574.1974.190.070.07
Cal PolyBW0.140.1440.7440.74-0.03-0.03
PurdueB100.140.1463.6463.640.040.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.140.1451.7251.720.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.140.146.906.90-0.12-0.12
NevadaMWC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1390.9190.910.110.11
ArizonaP120.130.1391.1891.180.110.11
San Diego St.MWC0.130.1375.7675.760.070.07
DePaulBE0.130.1337.5037.50-0.03-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Illinois St.MVC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
AkronMAC0.120.1258.8258.820.020.02
MemphisAmer0.120.1256.2556.250.010.01
Green BayHorz0.110.1173.3373.330.050.05
OaklandHorz0.110.1146.6746.67-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.110.1162.0762.070.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.110.1186.6786.670.080.08
Southern UtahBSky0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Air ForceMWC0.110.1141.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Portland St.BSky0.110.1148.1548.15-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1131.0331.03-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.110.1179.3179.310.060.06
MarquetteBE0.110.1140.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Colorado St.MWC0.110.1181.2581.250.070.07
CaliforniaP120.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
XavierBE0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
DartmouthIvy0.090.0950.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
JacksonvilleASun0.090.0924.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
StetsonASun0.090.0921.4321.43-0.05-0.05
William & MaryCAA0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
NebraskaB100.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
New OrleansSlnd0.080.0830.7730.77-0.03-0.03
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0856.2556.250.010.01
BelmontOVC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Oregon St.P120.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
TexasB120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
HawaiiBW0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
UC RiversideBW0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
OklahomaB120.080.0868.7568.750.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.080.0868.9768.970.030.03
TulsaAmer0.080.0870.9770.970.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0865.5265.520.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0832.2632.26-0.03-0.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0847.0647.06-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
IonaMAAC0.080.0876.4776.470.040.04
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.080.0875.8675.860.040.04
DukeACC0.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
SamfordSC0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
Arizona St.P120.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
FurmanSC0.080.0829.0329.03-0.03-0.03
WashingtonP120.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
Western CarolinaSC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.070.0767.7467.740.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.060.0662.9662.960.020.02
PacificWCC0.060.0632.1432.14-0.02-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.060.0676.4776.470.030.03
Kansas St.B120.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.060.0642.3142.31-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.04-0.04
BryantNEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0523.3323.33-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0525.9325.93-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.050.0520.6920.69-0.03-0.03
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
MaristMAAC0.050.0521.8821.88-0.03-0.03
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
RichmondA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0575.0075.000.030.03
OregonP120.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MercerSC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
San Jose St.MWC0.050.050.000.00-0.05-0.05
The CitadelSC0.050.0529.6329.63-0.02-0.02
USCP120.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Washington St.P120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ButlerBE0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
Seton HallBE0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
St. John'sBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0594.1294.120.040.04
AuburnSEC0.030.0341.1841.18-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0391.1891.180.020.02
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0358.3358.330.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.03100.00100.000.030.03
LongwoodBSth0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
LSUSEC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0340.7440.74-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.030.0339.2939.29-0.01-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.030.0355.5655.560.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
DavidsonA100.030.0376.6776.670.010.01
High PointBSth0.030.0367.8667.860.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Little RockSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
LouisvilleACC0.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Loyola MDPat0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0322.5822.58-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
BYUWCC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0359.2659.260.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0358.8258.820.000.00
KansasB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0321.4321.43-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0252.9452.940.000.00
MississippiSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00