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Through games of Nov 27, 2014.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:252.0
Current RPI:294
Expected SOS:240
Current SOS:140
Current Record:0-5
Expected Record:11-18
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:8-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-7
Current OOC Record:0-5
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:288
Expected OOC SOS:224



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-966.00.01%
19-10127.00.04%
18-11124.70.22%
17-12142.00.72%
16-13157.42.10%
15-14178.04.49%
14-15198.18.11%
13-16219.112.99%
12-17239.816.26%
11-18259.317.74%
10-19277.915.41%
9-20294.910.65%
8-21309.56.53%
7-22319.93.09%
6-23331.21.10%
5-24338.30.44%
4-25341.90.08%
3-26340.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah Valley (214.9)WACA60-52L0%0.0
11-16Stanford (36.9)P12A84-73L0%0.0
11-21Sam Houston St. (151.6)SlndN85-93L0%0.0
11-22Wofford (55.7)SCN72-68L0%0.0
11-23Fairfield (256.7)MAACA80-72L0%0.0
11-30Cal St. Bakersfield (292.6)WACA0-048%-0.6
12-2Cal St. Northridge (226.7)BWA0-039%-3.5
12-5Youngstown St. (247.9)HorzH0-063%3.9
12-9Creighton (67.3)BEA0-09%-16.4
12-13UNLV (123.3)MWCN0-029%-6.6
12-18Montana St. (313.5)BSkyH0-083%11.7
12-21Montana (171.2)BSkyA0-030%-6.3
12-28Milwaukee (260.8)HorzH0-062%3.5
1-2Nebraska Omaha (221.7)SumH0-058%2.3
1-4Denver (140.1)SumA0-022%-9.2
1-10IPFW (165.3)SumA0-024%-8.6
1-14North Dakota St. (204.1)SumH0-060%3.1
1-17South Dakota St. (154.5)SumA0-025%-8.0
1-22Western Illinois (313.7)SumA0-057%2.1
1-24IUPUI (270.3)SumA0-053%0.9
1-29IPFW (165.3)SumH0-045%-1.4
1-31Oral Roberts (234.1)SumH0-064%4.2
2-5Western Illinois (313.7)SumH0-078%9.3
2-7North Dakota St. (204.1)SumA0-037%-4.1
2-12Nebraska Omaha (221.7)SumA0-034%-4.9
2-14Oral Roberts (234.1)SumA0-040%-3.0
2-21IUPUI (270.3)SumH0-075%8.1
2-25Denver (140.1)SumH0-043%-2.0
2-28South Dakota St. (154.5)SumH0-047%-0.8


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum30.5026.400.0040.31-30.50-5.11
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.3850.0047.060.00-0.26
IUPUISum0.004.3740.0029.80-0.00-1.77
DenverSum0.004.3650.0059.870.000.86
Oral RobertsSum0.004.3640.0037.78-0.00-1.07
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.3633.3354.16-0.000.36
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.3350.0050.450.000.04
IPFWSum0.004.3266.6762.240.001.06
Western IllinoisSum0.004.3225.0026.22-0.00-2.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.9420.0034.38-0.00-0.60
Montana St.BSky0.001.910.0020.65-0.00-1.12
MontanaBSky0.001.8833.3350.61-0.000.02
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.8520.0037.95-0.00-0.45
StanfordP1211.001.8475.0070.355.500.75
Utah ValleyWAC10.001.8266.6748.863.33-0.04
WoffordSC13.251.8175.0076.296.620.95
Sam Houston St.Slnd12.001.8133.3363.67-4.000.50
FairfieldMAAC12.251.7925.0030.49-6.13-0.70
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.7950.0040.790.00-0.33
UNLVMWC2.251.7875.0051.041.130.04
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.7533.3336.93-0.00-0.46
CreightonBE0.001.72100.0060.470.000.36
Idaho St.BSky1.250.340.0023.57-1.25-0.18
IdahoBSky0.000.3233.3348.86-0.00-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.000.3133.3351.25-0.000.01
UMKCWAC0.000.3120.0042.43-0.00-0.05
SeattleWAC0.000.2525.0045.33-0.00-0.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.2550.0032.470.00-0.09
Weber St.BSky0.000.2225.0052.78-0.000.01
Chicago St.WAC0.000.220.0018.96-0.00-0.13
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.2133.3352.29-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.1925.0049.53-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.1920.0031.46-0.00-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1975.0056.110.000.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky1.250.1980.0074.820.750.09
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1950.0070.920.000.08
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.180.0051.90-0.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.1860.0059.160.000.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.1860.0055.000.000.02
WyomingMWC0.000.18100.0069.490.000.07
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1640.0046.34-0.00-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.150.0022.17-0.00-0.09
ArizonaP120.000.15100.0076.220.000.08
AkronMAC0.000.1460.0066.680.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.1333.3360.46-0.000.03
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1350.0045.170.00-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.000.1233.3334.34-0.00-0.04
PurdueB100.000.1283.3368.400.000.05
Green BayHorz0.000.1275.0078.500.000.07
Missouri St.MVC0.000.1233.3348.21-0.00-0.00
OaklandHorz0.000.1216.6726.26-0.00-0.06
Wright St.Horz0.000.1250.0048.990.00-0.00
Southern UtahBSky1.250.120.0016.54-1.25-0.08
Portland St.BSky0.000.12100.0057.180.000.02
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0077.870.000.07
CaliforniaP120.000.1280.0070.550.000.05
Colorado St.MWC0.000.12100.0069.610.000.05
Air ForceMWC0.000.1233.3345.53-0.00-0.01
MarquetteBE0.000.1260.0039.990.00-0.02
NevadaMWC0.000.1225.0043.15-0.00-0.02
UtahP120.000.1275.0073.700.000.06
DePaulBE0.000.1266.6725.500.00-0.06
San Diego St.MWC0.000.1283.3384.390.000.08
XavierBE0.000.11100.0078.730.000.07
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.1020.0035.95-0.00-0.03
William & MaryCAA0.000.1075.0055.000.000.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.1050.0064.460.000.03
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.1033.3329.78-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.1075.0066.230.000.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.42-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.10100.0079.050.000.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.0925.0068.20-0.000.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.0925.0052.42-0.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0035.74-0.00-0.03
NebraskaB100.000.0975.0052.330.000.00
OklahomaB120.000.0980.0070.540.000.04
Oregon St.P120.000.0950.0042.750.00-0.01
TulsaAmer0.000.0960.0055.660.000.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0028.00-0.00-0.04
Boise St.MWC0.000.0980.0063.470.000.02
UC DavisBW0.000.09100.0052.620.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0971.4356.020.000.01
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0023.83-0.00-0.05
BelmontOVC0.000.0980.0075.550.000.05
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.260.000.04
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3335.99-0.00-0.02
DukeACC2.000.09100.0083.322.000.06
IonaMAAC1.000.0980.0079.440.600.05
UCLAP120.000.0966.6758.390.000.01
Arizona St.P120.000.0960.0053.400.000.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0067.79-0.000.03
PepperdineWCC0.000.0966.6754.980.000.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0063.05-0.000.02
PacificWCC0.000.0733.3332.18-0.00-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0036.65-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.0775.0044.850.00-0.01
HamptonMEAC0.000.0716.6745.35-0.00-0.01
IowaB100.000.0766.6765.220.000.02
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0025.17-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0740.0026.71-0.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0766.6751.730.000.00
StetsonASun0.000.070.0029.60-0.00-0.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0030.50-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0023.72-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.0625.0036.27-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.06100.0079.690.000.04
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0675.0068.660.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0620.0050.32-0.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.000.0675.0064.570.000.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.0680.0072.320.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.0650.0046.120.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.000.0640.0036.39-0.00-0.02
Saint LouisA100.000.0675.0046.860.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0616.6732.00-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA1.000.060.0019.53-1.00-0.04
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0023.13-0.00-0.03
BryantNEC0.000.0633.3346.36-0.00-0.00
ChattanoogaSC0.000.0640.0054.85-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0028.02-0.00-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.0666.6758.150.000.01
FurmanSC0.000.0625.0027.48-0.00-0.03
MercerSC0.000.0650.0054.380.000.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0650.0036.580.00-0.02
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0028.25-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0625.0035.97-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.0640.0047.99-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0051.100.000.00
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0063.340.000.02
Ball St.MAC0.000.0633.3346.51-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.000.0680.0071.410.000.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.0640.0037.90-0.00-0.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.0650.0052.810.000.00
DrakeMVC0.000.0625.0023.91-0.00-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0057.070.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.0675.0069.010.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.0680.0063.370.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.0660.0068.290.000.02
HowardMEAC0.000.0625.0045.04-0.00-0.01
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0660.0040.420.00-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.000.0640.0054.55-0.000.01
ManhattanMAAC0.000.0625.0049.08-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.000.0620.0034.06-0.00-0.02
MonmouthMAAC0.000.0650.0052.540.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0660.0056.430.000.01
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0633.3330.24-0.00-0.02
OregonP120.000.0660.0063.290.000.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0065.930.000.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0056.120.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0063.970.000.02
RiderMAAC0.000.0640.0043.47-0.00-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.0620.0040.88-0.00-0.01
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0017.77-0.00-0.04
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0063.120.000.02
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3361.73-0.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0040.20-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0056.410.000.01
UC IrvineBW0.000.0633.3366.19-0.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.0633.3364.43-0.000.02
USCP120.000.0650.0029.750.00-0.02
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0075.980.000.03
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0057.930.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.0625.0022.65-0.00-0.03
DavidsonA100.000.0366.6764.030.000.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.03100.0052.770.000.00
LSUSEC0.000.0360.0056.260.000.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0047.66-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0030.59-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0050.53-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0040.56-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.0350.0059.430.000.01
AuburnSEC0.000.0360.0037.710.00-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0055.370.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0052.530.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.0375.0056.960.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.0320.0022.33-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0028.59-0.00-0.01
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0325.0039.34-0.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0060.400.000.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3347.83-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0087.590.000.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.0366.6753.030.000.00
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0089.470.000.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0064.840.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0023.49-0.00-0.02
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0360.0053.140.000.00
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0068.860.000.01
Arkansas Little RockSB0.000.0366.6751.540.000.00
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3335.76-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.0350.0067.630.000.01
Central ConnecticutNEC1.000.030.0030.72-1.00-0.01
ColoradoP120.000.0375.0060.510.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.0375.0069.780.000.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0035.88-0.00-0.01
KansasB120.000.0375.0062.620.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0078.390.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0350.0025.280.00-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.000.0340.0031.76-0.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0375.0053.040.000.00
Morehead St.OVC0.000.0333.3358.80-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.0316.6739.60-0.00-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.0375.0039.180.00-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.000.0380.0067.100.000.01
TempleAmer0.000.0360.0050.480.000.00