South Dakota

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	240.0
Current RPI:	240
Expected SOS:	143
Current SOS:	143
Current Record:	8-20
Expected Record:	8-20
Current Conf Record:	5-12
Expected Conf Record:	5-12
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-7
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	163
Expected OOC SOS:	31

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-20	240.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Southern (180.0)	SWAC	N	83-79	L	0%
11-15	Wyoming (75.0)	MWC	A	71-51	L	0%
11-16	North Carolina Central (155.0)	MEAC	N	81-69	W	100%
11-18	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	96-58	L	0%
11-29	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	H	71-73	L	0%
12-1	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	H	88-68	W	100%
12-4	Iowa (79.0)	B10	A	87-63	L	0%
12-8	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	A	62-51	L	0%
12-15	Ball St. (233.0)	MAC	H	73-80	L	0%
12-19	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	85-75	W	100%
12-22	Wisconsin Green Bay (160.0)	Horz	A	72-55	L	0%
12-29	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	A	72-95	W	100%
12-31	Kansas St. (19.0)	B12	A	70-50	L	0%
1-3	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	H	66-92	L	0%
1-5	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	H	74-71	W	100%
1-12	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	H	86-90	L	0%
1-17	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	A	62-60	L	0%
1-19	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	A	78-97	W	100%
1-24	Nebraska Omaha (285.0)	Sum	H	90-95	L	0%
1-31	South Dakota St. (62.0)	Sum	A	67-54	L	0%
2-2	North Dakota St. (72.0)	Sum	A	65-46	L	0%
2-9	Missouri Kansas City (284.0)	Sum	A	80-65	L	0%
2-14	Oakland (152.0)	Sum	H	75-76	L	0%
2-16	IUPU Fort Wayne (245.0)	Sum	H	51-64	L	0%
2-24	Montana St. (317.0)	BSky	A	74-85	W	100%
2-28	IUPUI (326.0)	Sum	A	69-87	W	100%
3-2	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	A	61-59	L	0%
3-9	Western Illinois (122.0)	Sum	N	54-53	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
South Dakota	Sum	26.50	26.50	31.34	31.34	-9.89	-9.89
Western Illinois	Sum	6.24	6.24	68.00	68.00	2.25	2.25
North Dakota St.	Sum	4.77	4.77	68.97	68.97	1.81	1.81
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.64	4.64	72.41	72.41	2.08	2.08
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	4.59	4.59	41.38	41.38	-0.79	-0.79
IUPUI	Sum	4.58	4.58	14.29	14.29	-3.27	-3.27
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	4.55	4.55	17.24	17.24	-2.98	-2.98
Oakland	Sum	4.55	4.55	46.43	46.43	-0.33	-0.33
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.46	4.46	33.33	33.33	-1.49	-1.49
Ball St.	MAC	3.63	3.63	44.44	44.44	-0.40	-0.40
Morehead St.	OVC	1.96	1.96	43.33	43.33	-0.26	-0.26
Kansas St.	B12	1.87	1.87	78.12	78.12	1.05	1.05
Wyoming	MWC	1.85	1.85	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Southern	SWAC	1.85	1.85	67.86	67.86	0.66	0.66
North Carolina Central	MEAC	1.85	1.85	70.37	70.37	0.75	0.75
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	1.84	1.84	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Gonzaga	WCC	1.81	1.81	93.55	93.55	1.58	1.58
Iowa	B10	1.79	1.79	62.50	62.50	0.45	0.45
Montana St.	BSky	1.79	1.79	40.74	40.74	-0.33	-0.33
North Dakota	BSky	0.33	0.33	46.67	46.67	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.26	0.26	78.12	78.12	0.15	0.15
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.26	0.26	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Utah Valley	GWC	0.24	0.24	35.71	35.71	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.24	0.24	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.23	0.23	66.67	66.67	0.08	0.08
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.22	0.22	28.00	28.00	-0.10	-0.10
Buffalo	MAC	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.18	0.18	13.79	13.79	-0.13	-0.13
Western Michigan	MAC	0.18	0.18	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.18	0.18	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.18	0.18	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana	B10	0.17	0.17	81.82	81.82	0.11	0.11
Minnesota	B10	0.17	0.17	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Chicago St.	GWC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Central Michigan	MAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Indiana St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.15	85.29	85.29	0.10	0.10
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.14	0.14	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.09	-0.09
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.14	0.14	37.04	37.04	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.14	0.14	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.13	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling	SWAC	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.12	-0.12
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.12	0.12	79.31	79.31	0.07	0.07
Ohio	MAC	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Miami OH	MAC	0.12	0.12	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.12	0.12	39.29	39.29	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.12	0.12	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.11	0.11	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	52.94	52.94	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	CUSA	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.09	0.09	70.00	70.00	0.04	0.04
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.09	0.09	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Maryland	ACC	0.09	0.09	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Western Kentucky	SB	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Texas Christian	B12	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
St. Mary's	WCC	0.08	0.08	81.25	81.25	0.05	0.05
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.08	0.08	85.29	85.29	0.06	0.06
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	34.38	34.38	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	17.86	17.86	-0.04	-0.04
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
North Texas	SB	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	BE	0.06	0.06	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.03	-0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	20.69	20.69	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	28.12	28.12	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	29.63	29.63	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.82	58.82	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.00	10.00	-0.05	-0.05
Louisville	BE	0.06	0.06	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Brigham Young	WCC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	7.14	7.14	-0.03	-0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	14.81	14.81	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	20.69	20.69	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Long Island	NEC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	SC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Idaho	WAC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	BW	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01