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Through games of Nov 20, 2014.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:273.9
Current RPI:238
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:157
Current Record:0-2
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:0-0
Expected Conf Record:6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-7
Current OOC Record:0-2
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:287
Expected OOC SOS:278



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
18-11124.70.03%
17-12146.60.28%
16-13163.40.97%
15-14182.12.19%
14-15203.54.50%
13-16223.77.72%
12-17243.811.58%
11-18262.515.32%
10-19280.617.22%
9-20296.616.11%
8-21310.511.82%
7-22322.76.89%
6-23331.43.63%
5-24337.71.25%
4-25343.00.41%
3-26346.70.06%
2-27350.00.01%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Utah Valley (243.9)WACA60-52L0%0.0
11-16Stanford (64.2)P12A84-73L0%0.0
11-21Sam Houston St. (190.3)SlndN0-036%-4.2
11-22Wofford (112.0)SCN0-027%-7.3
11-23Fairfield (199.3)MAACA0-032%-5.5
11-30Cal St. Bakersfield (305.6)WACA0-049%-0.4
12-2Cal St. Northridge (216.3)BWA0-030%-6.2
12-5Youngstown St. (279.9)HorzH0-059%2.9
12-9Creighton (97.2)BEA0-010%-15.1
12-13UNLV (94.4)MWCN0-020%-10.2
12-18Montana St. (309.7)BSkyH0-077%8.8
12-21Montana (195.7)BSkyA0-028%-7.1
12-28Milwaukee (279.9)HorzH0-059%2.6
1-2Nebraska Omaha (275.9)SumH0-063%3.9
1-4Denver (128.1)SumA0-015%-12.2
1-10IPFW (155.8)SumA0-017%-11.4
1-14North Dakota St. (130.9)SumH0-036%-4.2
1-17South Dakota St. (170.7)SumA0-022%-9.3
1-22Western Illinois (275.9)SumA0-038%-3.8
1-24IUPUI (280.1)SumA0-046%-1.2
1-29IPFW (155.8)SumH0-036%-4.2
1-31Oral Roberts (115.8)SumH0-035%-4.7
2-5Western Illinois (275.9)SumH0-061%3.4
2-7North Dakota St. (130.9)SumA0-017%-11.4
2-12Nebraska Omaha (275.9)SumA0-039%-3.3
2-14Oral Roberts (115.8)SumA0-016%-11.9
2-21IUPUI (280.1)SumH0-069%6.0
2-25Denver (128.1)SumH0-034%-5.0
2-28South Dakota St. (170.7)SumH0-043%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum37.5026.410.0036.21-37.50-7.29
North Dakota St.Sum0.004.390.0057.09-0.000.62
IUPUISum0.004.3833.3327.84-0.00-1.94
DenverSum0.004.3850.0061.930.001.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.004.370.0047.97-0.00-0.18
Nebraska OmahaSum0.004.3450.0034.690.00-1.33
Oral RobertsSum0.004.3450.0054.380.000.38
IPFWSum0.004.33100.0063.010.001.13
Western IllinoisSum0.004.330.0032.46-0.00-1.52
Montana St.BSky0.001.920.0023.83-0.00-1.00
MontanaBSky0.001.880.0048.60-0.00-0.05
MilwaukeeHorz0.001.880.0031.03-0.00-0.71
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.001.850.0030.17-0.00-0.73
StanfordP1225.001.84100.0058.0025.000.30
WoffordSC6.251.8150.0065.220.000.55
Utah ValleyWAC25.001.810.0040.82-25.00-0.33
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.001.810.0060.84-0.000.39
Youngstown St.Horz0.001.790.0036.46-0.00-0.48
FairfieldMAAC0.001.7950.0042.950.00-0.25
UNLVMWC0.001.79100.0056.260.000.22
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.001.7533.3344.74-0.00-0.18
CreightonBE0.001.72100.0054.820.000.17
Idaho St.BSky0.000.340.0033.58-0.00-0.11
North DakotaBSky0.000.310.0039.05-0.00-0.07
IdahoBSky0.000.3150.0047.210.00-0.02
UMKCWAC0.000.3150.0059.510.000.06
SeattleWAC0.000.2550.0053.850.000.02
Texas Pan AmericanWAC0.000.25100.0028.940.00-0.10
Weber St.BSky0.000.220.0059.82-0.000.04
Chicago St.WAC0.000.220.0026.57-0.00-0.10
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.000.210.0053.19-0.000.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.000.2050.0051.650.000.01
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.000.2050.0040.830.00-0.04
ValparaisoHorz0.000.1950.0052.080.000.01
DetroitHorz0.000.190.0053.31-0.000.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.000.1933.3364.95-0.000.06
Eastern WashingtonBSky6.250.19100.0059.196.250.03
Utah St.MWC0.000.18100.0063.690.000.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.000.180.0047.69-0.00-0.01
WyomingMWC0.000.18100.0055.290.000.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.000.1533.3350.61-0.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.000.150.0021.38-0.00-0.09
ArizonaP120.000.15100.0070.580.000.06
AkronMAC0.000.14100.0069.720.000.05
MemphisAmer0.000.130.0065.41-0.000.04
Green BayHorz0.000.130.0066.43-0.000.04
OaklandHorz0.000.130.0034.44-0.00-0.04
Wright St.Horz0.000.1350.0053.110.000.01
Missouri St.MVC0.000.13100.0056.370.000.02
Cal PolyBW0.000.130.0034.75-0.00-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.000.1250.0046.970.00-0.01
PurdueB100.000.12100.0061.020.000.03
Southern UtahBSky0.000.120.0024.28-0.00-0.06
CaliforniaP120.000.12100.0078.150.000.07
Portland St.BSky0.000.12100.0051.640.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.000.12100.0062.270.000.03
Air ForceMWC0.000.1250.0044.770.00-0.01
NevadaMWC0.000.12100.0051.540.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.000.12100.0067.300.000.04
UtahP120.000.1250.0063.450.000.03
DePaulBE0.000.12100.0039.730.00-0.02
San Diego St.MWC0.000.12100.0080.040.000.07
MarquetteBE0.000.1250.0054.560.000.01
XavierBE0.000.11100.0070.050.000.05
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.000.100.0039.93-0.00-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.000.100.0031.29-0.00-0.04
Kent St.MAC0.000.10100.0058.910.000.02
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.000.100.0033.78-0.00-0.03
TexasB120.000.10100.0084.350.000.07
William & MaryCAA0.000.1050.0046.350.00-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.000.100.0051.35-0.000.00
Oregon St.P120.000.09100.0044.490.00-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.000.090.0066.74-0.000.03
OklahomaB120.000.0950.0058.400.000.02
TulsaAmer0.000.0966.6757.250.000.01
Boise St.MWC0.000.09100.0065.680.000.03
New OrleansSlnd0.000.090.0034.19-0.00-0.03
UC DavisBW0.000.09100.0043.520.00-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.000.0966.6762.170.000.02
NebraskaB100.000.09100.0051.780.000.00
HawaiiBW0.000.0966.6748.810.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.000.090.0028.57-0.00-0.04
UNC GreensboroSC0.000.090.0036.86-0.00-0.02
Arizona St.P120.000.09100.0061.570.000.02
SamfordSC0.000.0933.3333.83-0.00-0.03
BelmontOVC0.000.0950.0071.660.000.04
Saint Mary'sWCC0.000.09100.0071.430.000.04
UCLAP120.000.09100.0064.410.000.03
IonaMAAC0.000.0950.0058.740.000.02
PepperdineWCC0.000.09100.0050.890.000.00
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.000.090.0069.58-0.000.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.000.070.0062.68-0.000.02
IowaB100.000.0766.6773.790.000.03
PacificWCC0.000.0750.0030.220.00-0.03
Southern MissCUSA0.000.0750.0053.410.000.00
DartmouthIvy0.000.070.0033.87-0.00-0.02
Georgia TechACC0.000.07100.0050.010.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.000.070.0023.67-0.00-0.03
Miami OHMAC0.000.0750.0034.320.00-0.02
StetsonASun0.000.070.0031.63-0.00-0.02
ArkansasSEC0.000.07100.0074.610.000.03
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.000.060.0031.05-0.00-0.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.000.060.0025.74-0.00-0.03
LamarSlnd0.000.060.0033.91-0.00-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.000.060.0058.87-0.000.01
MissouriSEC0.000.0666.6753.710.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.000.0650.0059.620.000.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.000.06100.0071.680.000.03
Kansas St.B120.000.06100.0060.010.000.01
Saint LouisA100.000.06100.0068.930.000.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.000.0633.3351.93-0.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.000.0633.3334.62-0.00-0.02
DelawareCAA0.000.060.0042.76-0.00-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.000.060.0032.05-0.00-0.02
BryantNEC0.000.0650.0051.350.000.00
Cal St. FullertonBW0.000.060.0039.41-0.00-0.01
ChattanoogaSC0.000.060.0055.69-0.000.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.000.060.0029.01-0.00-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.000.060.0048.48-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.000.0650.0024.870.00-0.03
Long Beach St.BW0.000.060.0046.51-0.00-0.00
MercerSC0.000.0650.0053.990.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.000.0666.6761.240.000.01
OregonP120.000.06100.0064.920.000.02
Saint Joseph'sA100.000.0633.3333.86-0.00-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.060.0019.51-0.00-0.04
The CitadelSC0.000.060.0027.81-0.00-0.03
UC IrvineBW0.000.0650.0064.340.000.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.000.060.0055.17-0.000.01
USCP120.000.0633.3326.65-0.00-0.03
VMISC0.000.0650.0044.060.00-0.01
WashingtonP120.000.06100.0056.080.000.01
Washington St.P120.000.060.0032.60-0.00-0.02
Western CarolinaSC0.000.060.0045.35-0.00-0.01
AlbanyAE0.000.0650.0064.020.000.02
DukeACC0.000.06100.0085.060.000.04
PortlandWCC0.000.06100.0049.930.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.000.060.0036.23-0.00-0.02
ButlerBE0.000.06100.0057.160.000.01
CanisiusMAAC0.000.06100.0058.500.000.01
DrakeMVC0.000.060.0029.13-0.00-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.000.06100.0062.600.000.01
EvansvilleMVC0.000.06100.0063.340.000.02
GeorgetownBE0.000.06100.0065.390.000.02
Georgia St.SB0.000.060.0060.93-0.000.01
HowardMEAC0.000.060.0032.81-0.00-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.000.0650.0052.180.000.00
ManhattanMAAC0.000.060.0057.31-0.000.01
MaristMAAC0.000.060.0043.95-0.00-0.01
MonmouthMAAC0.000.060.0051.39-0.000.00
NiagaraMAAC0.000.0650.0029.100.00-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.000.06100.0062.990.000.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.000.0650.0055.360.000.01
RichmondA100.000.0650.0061.220.000.01
RiderMAAC0.000.0650.0050.840.000.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.000.060.0026.72-0.00-0.03
Seton HallBE0.000.06100.0055.750.000.01
SienaMAAC0.000.0633.3359.54-0.000.01
South AlabamaSB0.000.060.0039.05-0.00-0.01
St. John'sBE0.000.06100.0053.570.000.00
VillanovaBE0.000.06100.0068.630.000.02
AuburnSEC0.000.0350.0037.190.00-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.000.03100.0049.980.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.000.03100.0081.830.000.02
DavidsonA100.000.03100.0049.500.00-0.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.000.030.0041.07-0.00-0.01
LSUSEC0.000.03100.0063.440.000.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.000.030.0045.95-0.00-0.00
Nicholls St.Slnd0.000.030.0035.44-0.00-0.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.000.030.0052.18-0.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.000.030.0033.38-0.00-0.01
San FranciscoWCC0.000.03100.0060.870.000.01
Central MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0040.980.00-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.000.03100.0050.480.000.00
High PointBSth0.000.03100.0057.950.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.000.030.0017.64-0.00-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.000.030.0024.25-0.00-0.02
Northern KentuckyASun0.000.0333.3338.23-0.00-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.000.0333.3337.88-0.00-0.01
BYUWCC0.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.000.03100.0059.250.000.01
ColoradoP120.000.03100.0068.310.000.01
ConnecticutAmer0.000.03100.0070.520.000.01
KansasB120.000.0350.0060.040.000.01
LouisvilleACC0.000.03100.0077.610.000.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.000.0333.3328.73-0.00-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.000.030.0058.61-0.000.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.000.030.0038.34-0.00-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.000.03100.0061.120.000.01
PresbyterianBSth0.000.030.0032.76-0.00-0.01
West VirginiaB120.000.03100.0067.060.000.01
BucknellPat0.000.0333.3347.64-0.00-0.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.000.030.0046.79-0.00-0.00
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.000.030.0034.11-0.00-0.01
KentuckySEC0.000.03100.0085.280.000.02
Loyola MDPat0.000.0366.6739.300.00-0.01
MississippiSEC0.000.0366.6760.300.000.01
North TexasCUSA0.000.03100.0048.410.00-0.00
NortheasternCAA0.000.03100.0068.990.000.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.000.0366.6755.190.000.00