live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 12, 2017.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:123.0
Current RPI:123
Expected SOS:237
Current SOS:237
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:13-5
Expected Conf Record:13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:14-2
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:157
Expected OOC SOS:210



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11123.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Drake (314.0)MVCA74-79W100%0.0
11-13Bowling Green (225.0)MACH78-72W100%0.0
11-21Kent St. (142.0)MACN80-77W100%0.0
11-22Houston (54.0)AmerN85-58L0%0.0
11-23Hofstra (196.0)CAAN57-65L0%0.0
11-27Montana (221.0)BSkyH72-67W100%0.0
11-30UMKC (184.0)WACA84-82L0%0.0
12-3Nebraska (107.0)B10A73-61L0%0.0
12-7Montana St. (253.0)BSkyH74-57W100%0.0
12-10Sacramento St. (293.0)BSkyH72-56W100%0.0
12-16Portland (233.0)WCCN85-82L0%0.0
12-18Montana St. (253.0)BSkyA68-80W100%0.0
12-21Gonzaga (8.0)WCCA102-65L0%0.0
12-29Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumH86-69W100%0.0
12-31South Dakota St. (160.0)SumA73-72L0%0.0
1-4Denver (207.0)SumA69-75W100%0.0
1-7IUPUI (218.0)SumH85-74W100%0.0
1-11North Dakota St. (111.0)SumH69-70L0%0.0
1-14Fort Wayne (178.0)SumH66-63W100%0.0
1-18Oral Roberts (292.0)SumA90-80L0%0.0
1-25Western Illinois (325.0)SumH62-55W100%0.0
1-28Denver (207.0)SumH88-83W100%0.0
2-1Nebraska Omaha (132.0)SumA91-83L0%0.0
2-4North Dakota St. (111.0)SumA66-76W100%0.0
2-8Fort Wayne (178.0)SumA82-93W100%0.0
2-11South Dakota St. (160.0)SumH91-89W100%0.0
2-18Oral Roberts (292.0)SumH86-72W100%0.0
2-23Western Illinois (325.0)SumA81-92W100%0.0
2-25IUPUI (218.0)SumA85-92W100%0.0
3-4Western Illinois (325.0)SumH78-69W100%0.0
3-6South Dakota St. (160.0)SumN71-74L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum26.5726.5766.6766.678.868.86
South Dakota St.Sum5.855.8548.2848.28-0.20-0.20
Western IllinoisSum5.655.6526.0926.09-2.70-2.70
Nebraska OmahaSum4.394.3955.1755.170.450.45
IUPUISum4.234.2342.8642.86-0.60-0.60
DenverSum4.224.2257.1457.140.600.60
North Dakota St.Sum4.174.1761.5461.540.960.96
Fort WayneSum4.164.1661.5461.540.960.96
Oral RobertsSum4.144.1419.2319.23-2.55-2.55
Montana St.BSky3.383.3850.0050.000.000.00
Sacramento St.BSky1.851.8539.2939.29-0.40-0.40
MontanaBSky1.831.8351.6151.610.060.06
UMKCWAC1.791.7944.8344.83-0.19-0.19
DrakeMVC1.721.7221.4321.43-0.98-0.98
Bowling GreenMAC1.691.6940.0040.00-0.34-0.34
GonzagaWCC1.661.6696.8896.881.561.56
Kent St.MAC1.661.6663.6463.640.450.45
PortlandWCC1.661.6626.6726.67-0.78-0.78
NebraskaB101.641.6434.4834.48-0.51-0.51
HofstraCAA1.611.6143.3343.33-0.22-0.22
HoustonAmer1.611.6166.6766.670.540.54
IdahoBSky0.360.3655.1755.170.040.04
Miami OHMAC0.300.3030.0030.00-0.12-0.12
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.270.2764.5264.520.080.08
North DakotaBSky0.250.2567.8667.860.090.09
MilwaukeeHorz0.250.2529.4129.41-0.10-0.10
Southern UtahBSky0.240.2412.9012.90-0.18-0.18
Portland St.BSky0.240.2442.8642.86-0.03-0.03
Weber St.BSky0.240.2456.6756.670.030.03
Idaho St.BSky0.210.2113.3313.33-0.16-0.16
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.190.1944.4444.44-0.02-0.02
WyomingMWC0.180.1853.3353.330.010.01
Missouri St.MVC0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.170.1781.2581.250.100.10
Eastern MichiganMAC0.160.1641.3841.38-0.03-0.03
PacificWCC0.150.1531.2531.25-0.06-0.06
Saint Mary'sWCC0.150.1587.5087.500.110.11
UC IrvineBW0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
AkronMAC0.150.1575.7675.760.080.08
Chicago St.WAC0.150.1510.3410.34-0.12-0.12
Kansas St.B120.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
ArkansasSEC0.140.1473.5373.530.070.07
Northern ArizonaBSky0.130.1325.8125.81-0.07-0.07
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.130.1321.8821.88-0.08-0.08
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Utah ValleyWAC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Northern IowaMVC0.130.1344.8344.83-0.01-0.01
Wichita St.MVC0.130.1387.8887.880.100.10
San Jose St.MWC0.130.1342.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.130.1351.7251.720.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Murray St.OVC0.130.1345.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.130.1340.0040.00-0.03-0.03
PepperdineWCC0.130.1326.6726.67-0.06-0.06
ToledoMAC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
OhioMAC0.120.1263.3363.330.030.03
PurdueB100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Austin PeayOVC0.120.1232.1432.14-0.04-0.04
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
UC DavisBW0.110.1162.5062.500.030.03
CreightonBE0.110.1172.7372.730.050.05
Michigan St.B100.110.1157.5857.580.020.02
TulsaAmer0.110.1146.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.110.1137.5037.50-0.03-0.03
MichiganB100.110.1168.5768.570.040.04
NorthwesternB100.110.1167.6567.650.040.04
Washington St.P120.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.110.1156.2556.250.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.110.1128.1228.12-0.05-0.05
RiceCUSA0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
UC RiversideBW0.100.1022.2222.22-0.06-0.06
Iowa St.B120.100.1069.7069.700.040.04
BYUWCC0.100.1066.6766.670.030.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.100.1048.2848.28-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
IndianaB100.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
DetroitHorz0.080.0823.3323.33-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0873.3373.330.040.04
MississippiSEC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.050.05
CincinnatiAmer0.080.0885.2985.290.060.06
ConnecticutAmer0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
USCP120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
CaliforniaP120.080.0863.6463.640.020.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
BaylorB120.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
High PointBSth0.060.0642.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
Notre DameACC0.060.0673.5373.530.030.03
OklahomaB120.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
RichmondA100.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
StetsonASun0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.060.0670.9770.970.020.02
XavierBE0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
ColoradoP120.050.0556.2556.250.010.01
Air ForceMWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0567.8667.860.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
HowardMEAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
KansasB120.050.0587.5087.500.040.04
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Ohio St.B100.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0537.0437.04-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.050.0517.8617.86-0.03-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
UtahP120.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
DaytonA100.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
Green BayHorz0.050.0555.1755.170.010.01
UCLAP120.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
DrexelCAA0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
ElonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
MemphisAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.050.0544.8344.83-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
SMUAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
TowsonCAA0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0518.5218.52-0.03-0.03
UCFAmer0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0584.3884.380.040.04
VermontAE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
George MasonA100.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0512.9012.90-0.04-0.04
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.030.0336.0036.00-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0328.1228.12-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0341.3841.38-0.00-0.00
ClemsonACC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
MarylandB100.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
RutgersB100.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
SouthernSWAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
West VirginiaB120.030.0376.4776.470.010.01
WisconsinB100.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.036.906.90-0.02-0.02
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.030.0335.7135.71-0.01-0.01
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0338.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0361.5461.540.010.01
KentuckySEC0.030.0385.2985.290.020.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0355.1755.170.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
SienaMAAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.030.0323.3323.33-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
TempleAmer0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
ArizonaP120.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
BryantNEC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0275.0075.000.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0256.2556.250.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
WashingtonP120.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0226.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0230.3030.30-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00