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Through games of Feb 6, 2016.


South Dakota

Conference:Sum
Expected RPI:191.3
Current RPI:189
Expected SOS:144
Current SOS:151
Current Record:10-14
Expected Record:12-17
Current Conf Record:3-8
Expected Conf Record:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-1
Current OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC Record:7-6
Expected OOC RPI:141
Expected OOC SOS:208



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
15-14148.50.33%
14-15161.25.95%
13-16175.722.90%
12-17190.538.08%
11-18205.826.02%
10-19221.46.71%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for South Dakota.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13Wright St. (157.7)HorzN77-69L0%0.0
11-14Northern Illinois (137.0)MACA72-65L0%0.0
11-15Cal St. Northridge (276.4)BWN76-72W100%0.0
11-20Kansas St. (60.2)B12A93-72L0%0.0
11-28Sacramento St. (248.1)BSkyA90-96W100%0.0
11-29Eastern Washington (208.4)BSkyN71-77W100%0.0
12-5Minnesota (243.2)B10A81-85W100%0.0
12-8UMKC (274.0)WACH79-70W100%0.0
12-12Cal St. Bakersfield (143.1)WACH67-77L0%0.0
12-17Milwaukee (167.0)HorzA91-92W100%0.0
12-19Illinois (156.3)B10A91-79L0%0.0
12-22UNLV (121.2)MWCA103-68L0%0.0
12-28Florida Gulf Coast (215.1)ASunH89-81W100%0.0
1-1IUPUI (179.8)SumH66-77L0%0.0
1-3Oral Roberts (151.4)SumA84-94W100%0.0
1-6IPFW (83.6)SumA85-65L0%0.0
1-9Nebraska Omaha (136.2)SumH73-79L0%0.0
1-13North Dakota St. (114.4)SumA66-65L0%0.0
1-20Western Illinois (259.5)SumH76-67W100%0.0
1-23South Dakota St. (41.0)SumH75-79L0%0.0
1-28Denver (200.4)SumA66-52L0%0.0
1-30Nebraska Omaha (136.2)SumA96-83L0%0.0
2-4IPFW (83.6)SumH82-95L0%0.0
2-6Oral Roberts (151.4)SumH91-79W100%0.0
2-11North Dakota St. (114.4)SumH0-042%-2.2
2-13South Dakota St. (41.0)SumA0-010%-14.0
2-21Denver (200.4)SumH0-062%3.3
2-25IUPUI (179.8)SumA0-040%-2.8
2-27Western Illinois (259.5)SumA0-042%-2.1


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

South Dakota's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


South Dakota's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  South Dakota.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
South DakotaSum26.4126.3943.8643.63-3.24-3.36
South Dakota St.Sum2.774.4176.1975.451.452.24
DenverSum2.824.3852.1750.520.120.05
Nebraska OmahaSum4.784.3852.3852.950.230.26
North Dakota St.Sum2.764.3461.9060.850.660.94
IUPUISum2.704.3237.5036.92-0.67-1.13
IPFWSum4.724.3268.1866.241.721.40
Oral RobertsSum4.724.3142.8644.28-0.67-0.49
Western IllinoisSum2.664.2929.4129.18-1.10-1.79
MinnesotaB102.361.9727.2728.78-1.07-0.83
UMKCWAC2.371.9430.0034.02-0.95-0.62
MilwaukeeHorz2.261.8761.9061.770.540.44
Eastern WashingtonBSky2.181.8555.0056.010.220.22
Wright St.Horz2.281.8554.5555.470.210.20
IllinoisB102.181.8445.4542.70-0.20-0.27
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC2.181.7965.0066.390.650.59
Cal St. NorthridgeBW2.181.7930.0029.60-0.87-0.73
Florida Gulf CoastASun2.131.7950.0054.150.000.15
Sacramento St.BSky2.131.7944.4447.49-0.24-0.09
Northern IllinoisMAC2.181.7861.1157.230.480.26
Kansas St.B122.081.7259.0957.070.380.24
UNLVMWC2.081.7247.6253.59-0.100.12
Chicago St.WAC0.350.294.357.73-0.32-0.25
Weber St.BSky0.190.2865.0069.270.060.11
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.250.255.007.24-0.23-0.21
Idaho St.BSky0.200.2545.0046.14-0.02-0.02
SeattleWAC0.300.2347.6244.99-0.01-0.02
IdahoBSky0.260.2254.5554.930.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.300.2240.9143.72-0.05-0.03
North DakotaBSky0.190.2247.3749.97-0.01-0.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.180.2128.5726.96-0.08-0.10
WyomingMWC0.230.2143.4842.51-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.270.2139.1337.74-0.06-0.05
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.210.2140.9143.55-0.04-0.03
IndianaB100.270.2079.1774.030.160.10
Grand CanyonWAC0.190.1982.6181.140.120.12
New Mexico St.WAC0.190.1965.2268.610.060.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.150.1914.2915.47-0.10-0.13
Utah ValleyWAC0.140.1933.3334.94-0.05-0.06
Portland St.BSky0.260.1931.5837.72-0.10-0.05
UC DavisBW0.210.1940.0036.78-0.04-0.05
WisconsinB100.150.1960.8755.860.030.02
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.190.1842.8650.39-0.030.00
UC RiversideBW0.240.1845.8341.66-0.02-0.03
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1815.0015.36-0.13-0.13
Cleveland St.Horz0.140.1821.7422.74-0.08-0.10
DetroitHorz0.230.1847.6245.86-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.230.1831.8230.48-0.08-0.07
ValparaisoHorz0.180.1881.8283.030.110.12
IowaB100.110.1681.8280.120.070.10
MontanaBSky0.210.1657.8962.290.030.04
LipscombASun0.140.1625.0029.27-0.07-0.06
Youngstown St.Horz0.140.1530.4332.35-0.06-0.05
Cal PolyBW0.180.1530.0034.56-0.07-0.05
MissouriSEC0.240.1534.7830.36-0.07-0.06
Texas TechB120.140.1559.0953.130.030.01
Iowa St.B120.140.1573.9170.070.070.06
CreightonBE0.100.1362.5059.780.020.03
FIUCUSA0.200.1340.9145.30-0.04-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.150.1310.0013.12-0.12-0.09
JacksonvilleASun0.190.1350.0049.850.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.140.1323.8127.69-0.07-0.06
Eastern MichiganMAC0.150.1336.8441.46-0.04-0.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.090.1221.7423.40-0.05-0.07
Western MichiganMAC0.140.1233.3335.50-0.05-0.04
Ball St.MAC0.040.1263.6459.230.010.02
New MexicoMWC0.190.1260.8762.990.040.03
Air ForceMWC0.090.1245.4538.48-0.01-0.03
Austin PeayOVC0.170.1237.5040.51-0.04-0.02
Green BayHorz0.140.1254.5556.010.010.01
Northern KentuckyHorz0.140.1233.3335.08-0.05-0.04
OaklandHorz0.090.1268.0067.970.030.04
Oklahoma St.B120.140.1247.8344.37-0.01-0.01
OklahomaB120.180.1286.3682.100.130.08
TCUB120.050.1243.4837.22-0.01-0.03
South AlabamaSB0.090.1233.3334.19-0.03-0.04
Ohio St.B100.190.1258.3354.170.030.01
PurdueB100.130.1179.1776.550.080.06
RutgersB100.050.1121.7420.35-0.03-0.07
USC UpstateASun0.100.1022.7323.25-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.160.1061.9059.420.040.02
Arizona St.P120.150.0954.1751.650.010.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0952.3847.050.00-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.140.0947.8350.14-0.010.00
North FloridaASun0.140.0965.2267.130.040.03
Central MichiganMAC0.100.0950.0051.170.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.140.0961.9059.650.030.02
Utah St.MWC0.090.0945.0046.77-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.090.0931.8229.14-0.03-0.04
Santa ClaraWCC0.090.0930.4331.18-0.04-0.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.130.0917.3920.65-0.09-0.05
Colorado St.MWC0.090.0952.3850.420.000.00
Georgia St.SB0.090.0957.8956.090.010.01
MichiganB100.090.0969.5766.200.040.03
NorthwesternB100.090.0966.6763.430.030.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0743.4842.63-0.01-0.01
NJITASun0.050.0754.1755.260.000.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.100.0640.9140.64-0.02-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.100.0620.0026.76-0.06-0.03
AkronMAC0.050.0681.8280.040.030.04
ToledoMAC0.110.0659.0960.070.020.01
PacificWCC0.100.0625.0028.89-0.05-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0642.8639.18-0.01-0.01
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0635.0032.28-0.01-0.02
ColoradoP120.090.0669.5765.300.040.02
HawaiiBW0.000.0684.2181.680.000.04
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0652.6350.230.000.00
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0654.1750.940.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.090.0669.5768.500.040.02
Long Beach St.BW0.100.0645.4551.34-0.010.00
LSUSEC0.090.0665.2260.280.030.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0671.4369.410.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.050.0629.1733.14-0.02-0.02
San FranciscoWCC0.100.0654.5550.110.010.00
South CarolinaSEC0.090.0686.3679.150.070.04
SouthernSWAC0.090.0665.0066.790.030.02
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0631.5831.99-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.090.0663.6459.960.020.01
UC IrvineBW0.050.0672.7371.610.020.03
Texas A&MSEC0.090.0678.2678.040.050.03
UCLAP120.100.0656.5253.250.010.00
Boise St.MWC0.050.0663.6462.520.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0645.4549.71-0.01-0.00
NavyPat0.090.0662.5062.440.020.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0655.0054.530.000.01
San Diego St.MWC0.050.0672.7372.030.020.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.090.0628.5731.90-0.04-0.02
UtahP120.090.0672.7368.540.040.02
Western CarolinaSC0.090.0628.5731.37-0.04-0.02
Notre DameACC0.090.0669.5765.850.040.02
ButlerBE0.040.0669.5767.220.020.02
Indiana St.MVC0.040.0652.1751.940.000.00
MarquetteBE0.040.0662.5056.260.010.01
MemphisAmer0.040.0660.8760.800.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.040.0650.0049.100.00-0.00
MarylandB100.000.0687.5083.690.000.04
Michigan St.B100.090.0683.3383.010.060.04
NebraskaB100.090.0654.1751.820.010.00
Penn St.B100.050.0650.0046.740.00-0.00
BaylorB120.050.0672.7366.500.020.02
KansasB120.050.0681.8277.570.030.03
TexasB120.050.0669.5762.640.020.01
West VirginiaB120.090.0682.6179.550.060.03
DartmouthIvy0.050.0331.5831.77-0.02-0.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0321.7423.66-0.03-0.02
FloridaSEC0.050.0365.2266.080.020.01
La SalleA100.050.0320.0020.47-0.03-0.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.050.0371.4368.720.020.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0382.6177.730.030.02
MassachusettsA100.050.0340.9139.32-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.050.0385.7185.390.040.02
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0376.1973.380.030.02
BuffaloMAC0.050.0359.0958.900.010.01
Incarnate WordSlnd0.050.0356.2556.100.010.00
Kent St.MAC0.000.0363.6459.380.000.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0340.0038.50-0.01-0.01
StanfordP120.050.0350.0046.610.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.050.0360.0057.950.010.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0339.1338.57-0.01-0.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0356.5257.280.010.00
PittsburghACC0.050.0376.1968.220.030.01
USCP120.050.0378.2673.060.030.01
ArizonaP120.050.0379.1778.310.030.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0323.8126.56-0.02-0.01
DuquesneA100.050.0363.6456.370.010.00
George MasonA100.050.0334.7834.21-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0373.9171.570.020.01
OregonP120.050.0381.8278.150.030.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.039.0917.11-0.04-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.000.0325.0022.77-0.00-0.02
Wichita St.MVC0.050.0372.7376.350.020.02
XavierBE0.050.0391.3084.380.040.02
ClemsonACC0.050.0360.8760.210.010.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0342.8646.34-0.01-0.00
TempleAmer0.050.0363.6459.810.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0386.3685.030.030.02
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0366.6765.220.020.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0315.0022.35-0.03-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0361.9056.690.010.00
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0330.4335.11-0.02-0.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0365.2259.020.010.01
North CarolinaACC0.050.0382.6178.690.030.02
ProvidenceBE0.050.0375.0070.940.020.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0338.1033.40-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0350.0053.300.000.00
UABCUSA0.050.0382.6179.430.030.02
YaleIvy0.050.0373.6874.620.020.01