NJ Inst of Technology

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	294.0
Current RPI:	277
Expected SOS:	330
Current SOS:	297
Current Record:	6-12
Expected Record:	10-15
Current Conf Record:	3-2
Expected Conf Record:	5-5
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-8
Current OOC Record:	3-10
Expected OOC Record:	4-11
Expected OOC RPI:	290
Expected OOC SOS:	249

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-12	234.2	0.69%
12-13	256.6	5.16%
11-14	276.1	18.01%
10-15	290.8	27.93%
9-16	301.9	29.15%
8-17	313.0	14.63%
7-18	323.5	4.06%
6-19	332.3	0.36%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NJ Inst of Technology.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)	Spread
11-12	Manhattan (115.2)	MAAC	A	62-48	L	0%	0.0
11-17	Massachusetts (75.6)	A10	A	79-58	L	0%	0.0
11-26	St. Francis NY (188.0)	NEC	H	60-79	L	0%	0.0
11-30	Army (293.1)	Pat	A	53-54	W	100%	0.0
12-3	Georgetown (13.4)	BE	A	84-44	L	0%	0.0
12-6	Seton Hall (54.0)	BE	A	78-48	L	0%	0.0
12-22	Rutgers (141.4)	BE	A	77-53	L	0%	0.0
12-28	Fairleigh Dickinson (323.6)	NEC	H	66-53	W	100%	0.0
12-30	Long Island (106.7)	NEC	A	84-74	L	0%	0.0
1-2	Lafayette (209.9)	Pat	H	78-58	W	100%	0.0
1-7	Longwood (318.3)	ind	A	85-70	L	0%	0.0
1-10	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	A	71-70	L	0%	0.0
1-19	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	H	85-62	W	100%	0.0
1-21	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	H	58-57	W	100%	0.0
1-26	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	A	80-63	L	0%	0.0
1-28	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	A	81-58	L	0%	0.0
2-1	Colgate (296.1)	Pat	H	73-76	L	0%	0.0
2-4	Chicago St. (333.6)	GWC	A	64-73	W	100%	0.0
2-9	Utah Valley (220.8)	GWC	H	0-0		37%	-3.6
2-11	North Dakota (265.8)	GWC	H	0-0		46%	-1.1
2-16	Texas Pan American (307.3)	GWC	A	0-0		39%	-3.2
2-18	Houston Baptist (312.8)	GWC	A	0-0		44%	-1.6
2-22	Cal St. Bakersfield (210.7)	ind	H	0-0		40%	-2.7
2-25	Longwood (318.3)	ind	H	0-0		75%	7.5
3-3	Chicago St. (333.6)	GWC	H	0-0		79%	8.7

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NJ Inst of Technology's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NJ Inst of Technology's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NJ Inst of Technology.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	26.13	26.42	37.14	38.85	-6.72	-5.89
Texas Pan American	GWC	3.17	4.79	20.00	24.11	-1.90	-2.48
North Dakota	GWC	3.04	4.67	29.41	38.19	-1.25	-1.10
Chicago St.	GWC	3.05	4.61	9.52	13.00	-2.47	-3.41
Utah Valley	GWC	3.05	4.60	52.38	55.81	0.15	0.54
Houston Baptist	GWC	3.05	4.60	26.32	28.52	-1.44	-1.98
Longwood	ind	2.96	4.18	25.00	22.87	-1.48	-2.27
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	2.84	4.15	45.45	45.31	-0.26	-0.39
Army	Pat	3.09	2.32	42.86	43.23	-0.44	-0.31
St. Francis NY	NEC	3.08	2.27	54.55	54.40	0.28	0.20
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	3.02	2.24	9.09	12.57	-2.47	-1.68
Lafayette	Pat	3.08	2.24	45.45	44.51	-0.28	-0.25
Seton Hall	BE	2.90	2.21	63.64	62.40	0.79	0.55
Colgate	Pat	2.96	2.17	27.27	26.97	-1.35	-1.00
Long Island	NEC	2.90	2.17	69.57	70.06	1.13	0.87
Rutgers	BE	2.84	2.10	47.83	45.10	-0.12	-0.21
Georgetown	BE	2.84	2.07	80.00	76.62	1.70	1.10
Manhattan	MAAC	2.78	2.00	66.67	68.05	0.93	0.72
Massachusetts	A10	2.78	2.00	72.73	67.57	1.26	0.70
Seattle	ind	0.13	0.30	22.22	32.99	-0.07	-0.10
Navy	Pat	0.31	0.28	9.52	13.17	-0.25	-0.21
DePaul	BE	0.31	0.28	47.83	42.19	-0.01	-0.04
Monmouth	NEC	0.24	0.27	28.00	28.87	-0.10	-0.11
St. John's	BE	0.19	0.25	43.48	40.24	-0.03	-0.05
American	Pat	0.31	0.25	65.22	63.79	0.09	0.07
Lehigh	Pat	0.24	0.24	73.91	74.94	0.12	0.12
Wagner	NEC	0.36	0.24	82.61	84.58	0.23	0.17
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.30	0.24	56.52	57.14	0.04	0.03
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.30	0.24	44.00	45.88	-0.04	-0.02
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.21	0.23	34.78	35.19	-0.06	-0.07
Campbell	BSth	0.20	0.23	57.69	58.27	0.03	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.19	0.23	65.00	66.71	0.06	0.08
Texas Arlington	Slnd	0.20	0.23	76.19	75.98	0.11	0.12
Bucknell	Pat	0.25	0.21	73.91	75.03	0.12	0.10
Holy Cross	Pat	0.18	0.21	40.91	42.03	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.36	0.21	21.74	22.75	-0.20	-0.11
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.30	0.20	26.09	28.61	-0.14	-0.09
Texas St.	Slnd	0.19	0.18	22.22	27.56	-0.11	-0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.18	47.37	42.13	-0.01	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.19	0.18	34.78	37.18	-0.06	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.25	0.18	14.29	17.12	-0.18	-0.12
Cincinnati	BE	0.19	0.17	69.57	65.37	0.07	0.05
Providence	BE	0.24	0.17	52.00	48.78	0.01	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.30	0.17	45.45	45.69	-0.03	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.29	0.17	55.00	54.81	0.03	0.02
Syracuse	BE	0.18	0.17	95.83	92.00	0.16	0.14
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.23	0.17	20.83	23.73	-0.14	-0.09
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.16	31.82	32.98	-0.06	-0.05
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.16	73.91	75.47	0.07	0.08
Western Illinois	Sum	0.15	0.16	52.63	48.32	0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.15	0.16	81.82	81.02	0.09	0.10
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.15	71.43	73.99	0.06	0.07
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.14	0.15	30.00	33.22	-0.06	-0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.07	0.15	36.36	40.96	-0.02	-0.03
Creighton	MVC	0.13	0.15	84.00	82.62	0.09	0.10
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.15	50.00	56.75	0.00	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.15	21.05	22.46	-0.07	-0.08
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.15	27.27	35.05	-0.06	-0.04
Nevada	WAC	0.07	0.15	80.95	76.42	0.04	0.08
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.15	69.57	69.00	0.05	0.06
Pacific	BW	0.12	0.15	35.00	37.55	-0.04	-0.04
Portland St.	BSky	0.12	0.15	42.86	45.93	-0.02	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.13	0.15	14.29	16.80	-0.09	-0.10
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.15	56.52	56.80	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.15	76.19	70.71	0.07	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.15	63.64	63.17	0.03	0.04
Toledo	MAC	0.13	0.15	38.10	40.84	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.14	69.57	70.42	0.05	0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.18	0.14	27.27	23.78	-0.08	-0.07
Canisius	MAAC	0.12	0.14	17.39	19.76	-0.08	-0.08
Bryant	NEC	0.24	0.14	8.33	10.84	-0.20	-0.11
Marquette	BE	0.13	0.14	80.00	76.67	0.08	0.07
La Salle	A10	0.18	0.14	70.83	68.83	0.08	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.24	0.14	68.00	70.06	0.09	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.24	0.14	79.17	74.20	0.14	0.07
Marist	MAAC	0.23	0.13	34.78	33.44	-0.07	-0.04
Connecticut	BE	0.24	0.13	65.22	62.35	0.07	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.23	0.13	32.00	35.39	-0.08	-0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.13	65.22	62.67	0.04	0.03
West Virginia	BE	0.24	0.13	66.67	65.98	0.08	0.04
Kansas	B12	0.14	0.12	78.26	78.42	0.08	0.07
Duquesne	A10	0.13	0.11	59.09	56.38	0.02	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.13	0.11	69.57	65.88	0.05	0.03
Northwestern	B10	0.13	0.11	63.64	57.79	0.03	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.12	0.10	62.50	62.07	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.18	0.10	57.69	58.54	0.03	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.18	0.10	0.00	4.04	-0.18	-0.09
Pittsburgh	BE	0.12	0.10	62.50	59.52	0.03	0.02
South Florida	BE	0.18	0.10	54.55	48.54	0.02	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.10	45.83	45.52	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.10	40.91	34.45	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.12	0.10	62.50	62.42	0.03	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.17	0.10	79.17	80.14	0.10	0.06
Siena	MAAC	0.12	0.10	43.48	45.03	-0.02	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	24.00	24.86	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.00	0.08	42.86	43.52	-0.00	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	61.90	63.52	0.02	0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.08	33.33	34.54	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.08	54.17	54.76	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.08	25.00	23.73	-0.03	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.07	0.08	47.62	46.51	-0.00	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.08	28.57	26.31	-0.03	-0.04
Washington	P12	0.07	0.08	69.57	66.59	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.07	69.57	65.18	0.02	0.02
Brigham Young	WCC	0.07	0.07	75.00	76.02	0.03	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.07	66.67	62.69	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	51.75	0.00	0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	47.83	47.36	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	CAA	0.06	0.07	66.67	69.71	0.02	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.00	0.07	81.82	81.50	0.00	0.05
Grambling	SWAC	0.06	0.07	14.29	14.31	-0.05	-0.05
Houston	CUSA	0.06	0.07	47.62	44.58	-0.00	-0.01
Idaho	WAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	51.46	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	61.90	67.29	0.02	0.03
Maine	AE	0.06	0.07	47.62	48.01	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.07	45.00	41.71	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.06	0.07	82.61	81.43	0.04	0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.07	13.64	16.23	-0.04	-0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.07	5.26	7.29	-0.06	-0.06
Oakland	Sum	0.06	0.07	48.00	50.28	-0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	87.50	85.41	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.07	31.82	33.75	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.07	0.07	35.00	40.74	-0.02	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.00	0.07	33.33	33.82	-0.00	-0.02
San Jose St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	27.27	26.96	-0.03	-0.03
Texas Christian	MWC	0.07	0.07	57.14	49.57	0.01	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.07	30.43	25.84	-0.02	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.07	0.07	61.90	58.61	0.02	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.06	0.07	50.00	52.95	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	81.82	76.80	0.04	0.04
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.07	0.07	45.00	44.18	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.07	55.00	57.42	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.07	69.57	61.84	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.07	54.17	49.41	0.01	-0.00
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.07	33.33	32.18	-0.02	-0.03
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.07	18.18	19.91	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	CUSA	0.13	0.07	69.57	71.58	0.05	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.07	31.82	34.86	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.06	0.07	85.71	78.11	0.05	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.00	0.07	26.32	29.64	-0.00	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.07	34.78	32.10	-0.02	-0.03
Wichita St.	MVC	0.06	0.07	82.61	80.50	0.04	0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.13	0.07	21.74	25.63	-0.07	-0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.12	0.07	72.22	63.23	0.05	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.12	0.07	41.67	38.63	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.12	0.07	61.54	63.84	0.03	0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.12	0.07	54.55	56.80	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.07	47.37	52.90	-0.01	0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.12	0.07	68.18	68.98	0.04	0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.07	60.87	60.96	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.07	20.83	20.61	-0.04	-0.04
Miami FL	ACC	0.12	0.07	66.67	63.50	0.04	0.02
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.07	50.00	48.48	0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.12	0.07	4.00	5.27	-0.11	-0.06
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	56.52	54.88	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.06	0.06	78.26	74.29	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.11	0.06	36.00	40.36	-0.03	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.11	0.06	40.00	39.70	-0.02	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.04	69.57	70.16	0.03	0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.04	34.78	35.53	-0.02	-0.01
NC Greensboro	SC	0.07	0.04	34.78	33.38	-0.02	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.04	40.91	43.65	-0.01	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.07	0.04	54.55	58.39	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.04	9.52	11.47	-0.05	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	50.66	-0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.03	40.91	38.38	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.06	0.03	33.33	37.75	-0.02	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.03	75.00	74.01	0.03	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.03	54.17	47.95	0.01	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.03	30.43	26.42	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	A10	0.06	0.03	50.00	49.46	0.00	-0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.06	0.03	58.33	59.92	0.01	0.01
Davidson	SC	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.37	0.03	0.02
East Carolina	CUSA	0.06	0.03	44.44	41.65	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.06	0.03	52.38	49.77	0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.03	72.73	71.57	0.03	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.03	34.78	32.05	-0.02	-0.01
Mercer	ASun	0.06	0.03	72.00	72.22	0.03	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.03	47.83	48.56	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.06	0.03	60.00	58.30	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.03	8.70	13.12	-0.05	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.00	0.03	60.00	59.09	0.00	0.01
St. Louis	A10	0.06	0.03	77.27	77.70	0.03	0.02
Temple	A10	0.00	0.03	77.27	75.07	0.00	0.02
Utah	P12	0.06	0.03	18.18	15.00	-0.04	-0.02
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.06	0.03	80.00	78.08	0.04	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.03	47.83	43.63	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	A10	0.00	0.03	65.22	63.69	0.00	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.03	66.67	60.84	0.02	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.03	79.17	76.62	0.03	0.02
Fresno St.	WAC	0.06	0.03	39.13	44.46	-0.01	-0.00
George Mason	CAA	0.06	0.03	76.00	72.48	0.03	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.06	0.03	59.09	57.27	0.01	0.00
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.06	0.03	13.04	14.47	-0.04	-0.02
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.00	0.03	39.13	36.12	-0.00	-0.01